@v587d/capital-generation 2.6.5 → 2.7.1

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/sector-analysis/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: sector-analysis
+description: Analyze US market sectors and identify rotation opportunities
+---
+
+# Sector Analysis
+
+## ⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis
+
+Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the sectors you compare:
+
+1. **Fetch current levels** — get the current price and 3-, 6- and 12-month performance of each sector ETF (XLK, XLF, …) and the S&P 500 through the host's own data path; delegate the request in a role-split host. Never assume a level from training data.
+2. **Confirm key figures** — each sector's forward P/E and earnings-revision trend, as applicable to this skill.
+3. **State your data source** — fill in the `Data & Sources` header (next section) so the origin, as-of date, retrieval path, and confidence of every figure are explicit at the top of the output.
+4. **Stop on missing data** — if a figure cannot be retrieved through the host's data path, name what is missing and stop; the analysis does not run on remembered values:
+
+> ⚠️ **Data unavailable.** <list the figures this analysis could not retrieve>. Those fields are reported as missing and are not estimated — retrieval is a precondition, not a nicety.
+
+Never substitute a remembered value for a retrieved one. Getting the number is the host data path's job — delegate it; asking the user to paste is the last resort only where the host has no retrieval path at all.
+
+---
+
+## 📋 Data & Sources Header — Open Every Output With It
+
+The first thing in the output is this provenance block, filled in — never left as placeholders. It is the standard documented on the [Data & Accuracy](https://yennanliu.github.io/InvestSkill/data-and-accuracy.html) page and the first thing `result-validator` looks for:
+
+```
+Data & Sources
+  As of:      <date the figures represent, e.g. 2026-06-30>
+  Source:     <primary docs — SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q, company IR, FRED, exchange data …>
+  Retrieval:  <delegated retrieval | web/tool retrieval | pasted by user>
+  Confidence: <HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW>
+```
+
+- Memory is not a retrieval path. A figure that was neither retrieved nor supplied by the user is reported as missing, never estimated — and never written into this block as if it had been retrieved.
+- Mixed sources: list each with its own as-of date rather than blending them.
+- Data the user pasted is reported as `pasted by user`; do not upgrade its confidence beyond what the user's own source supports.
+
+---
+
+Analyze US market sectors and identify sector rotation opportunities based on economic cycles.
+
+## Sector Overview
+
+Analyze the 11 S&P 500 sectors:
+1. Information Technology
+2. Healthcare
+3. Financials
+4. Consumer Discretionary
+5. Communication Services
+6. Industrials
+7. Consumer Staples
+8. Energy
+9. Utilities
+10. Real Estate
+11. Materials
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+1. **Sector Performance**
+   - Relative performance vs. S&P 500
+   - Historical performance trends
+   - Momentum and trend strength
+   - Volatility analysis
+
+2. **Economic Cycle Positioning**
+   - Early cycle: Financials, Technology, Industrials
+   - Mid cycle: Industrials, Materials, Energy
+   - Late cycle: Energy, Consumer Staples, Healthcare
+   - Recession: Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare
+
+3. **Fundamental Metrics**
+   - Sector valuation (P/E, P/B vs. historical)
+   - Earnings growth forecasts
+   - Profit margin trends
+   - Revenue growth outlook
+
+4. **Macro Drivers**
+   - Interest rate sensitivity
+   - Commodity price exposure
+   - Economic growth correlation
+   - Currency impact
+   - Regulatory environment
+
+5. **Technical Picture**
+   - Sector ETF chart patterns
+   - Relative strength analysis
+   - Support/resistance levels
+   - Volume trends
+
+## Sector Rotation Strategy
+
+- Identify current economic cycle phase
+- Determine leading and lagging sectors
+- Assess rotation timing signals
+- Evaluate defensive vs. cyclical positioning
+- Consider factor tilts (value, growth, quality)
+
+## Top Holdings Analysis
+
+- Identify sector leaders and laggards
+- Analyze top 5-10 stocks per sector
+- Evaluate sector concentration risks
+- Find emerging opportunities
+
+---
+
+## Sector Valuation Comparison Table
+
+Use these ranges as historical context benchmarks. Always verify current figures against live data sources. Ranges reflect long-run averages across full market cycles; individual readings may deviate significantly in extremes.
+
+| Sector | Typical P/E Range | Typical P/S Range | EV/EBITDA Range | Dividend Yield Range | Historical EPS Growth (10Y CAGR) |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| Information Technology | 22–40x | 4–10x | 15–30x | 0.5–1.5% | 12–18% |
+| Healthcare | 16–28x | 1.5–4x | 12–20x | 1.5–2.5% | 8–12% |
+| Financials | 10–16x | 2–4x (Price/Book 1–2x) | 8–14x | 2.0–3.5% | 7–11% |
+| Consumer Discretionary | 18–35x | 0.8–2.5x | 10–20x | 0.5–1.5% | 10–15% |
+| Communication Services | 15–28x | 2–5x | 10–18x | 0.5–2.0% | 6–12% |
+| Industrials | 16–25x | 1–2.5x | 10–16x | 1.5–2.5% | 7–11% |
+| Consumer Staples | 18–26x | 0.8–2x | 12–17x | 2.5–4.0% | 5–8% |
+| Energy | 8–18x (volatile) | 0.5–1.5x | 5–12x | 3.0–5.5% | 3–8% (commodity-driven) |
+| Utilities | 14–22x | 1.5–3x | 10–15x | 3.0–5.0% | 3–6% |
+| Real Estate (REITs) | 30–60x (use P/FFO: 14–22x) | 5–12x | 15–25x | 3.5–6.0% | 4–8% |
+| Materials | 12–22x | 0.8–2x | 8–14x | 2.0–3.5% | 5–10% |
+
+**Notes:**
+- P/E for Energy and Financials is highly cyclical — use normalized or through-cycle P/E.
+- REITs are best valued on Price/FFO (Funds From Operations) or EV/EBITDA, not standard P/E.
+- Dividend yield ranges shift with interest rate regimes; compare to prevailing 10Y Treasury for context.
+- P/S is most useful for early-stage growth sectors (Tech, Comm Services) where margins are expanding.
+
+---
+
+## Sector Seasonality Calendar
+
+Historical seasonal patterns based on decades of S&P 500 sector returns. These are tendencies, not guarantees — confirm with current macro backdrop and momentum before acting.
+
+| Month | Historically Strong Sectors | Historically Weak Sectors | Key Seasonal Driver |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| January | Financials, Small Caps, Industrials | Utilities, Consumer Staples | "January Effect," new year portfolio repositioning |
+| February | Healthcare, Technology | Energy, Materials | Earnings season (Q4 reports), defensive rotation |
+| March | Energy, Industrials, Materials | Real Estate, Utilities | Spring economic activity pickup, rate expectations reset |
+| April | Consumer Discretionary, Technology | Energy | Strong earnings season (Q1), consumer spending uplift |
+| May | Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities | Industrials, Materials | "Sell in May" defensive rotation begins |
+| June | Energy (early summer driving demand) | Consumer Discretionary, Financials | Fed meeting seasonality, summer slowdown |
+| July | Technology, Consumer Discretionary | Energy | Q2 earnings beats, summer consumer activity |
+| August | Consumer Staples, Utilities | Technology, Industrials | Thin liquidity, risk-off tendency, vacation season |
+| September | Energy | Technology, Consumer Discretionary | Historically worst month for equities overall |
+| October | Financials, Industrials, Technology | Real Estate | Q3 earnings season begins, year-end setup |
+| November | Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Industrials | Utilities, Energy | Pre-holiday retail strength, "Santa rally" setup |
+| December | Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples | Financials | Holiday spending, tax-loss harvesting, year-end flows |
+
+**Cycle-Overlay Seasonality:**
+- Recession entry: Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare outperform regardless of month.
+- Early recovery: Financials, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary lead — often most pronounced in Q1/Q2 post-trough.
+- Commodity supercycles: Energy and Materials seasonal patterns amplify vs. normal years.
+
+---
+
+## Sector Correlation Matrix
+
+Use this matrix to understand diversification benefits and macro sensitivity when constructing multi-sector portfolios. Correlations are approximate long-run averages; they compress toward 1.0 during market stress.
+
+### Inter-Sector Correlation (approximate, long-run)
+
+| | Tech | Health | Fin | Disc | Comm | Ind | Staples | Energy | Util | RE | Mats |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **Tech** | — | Low+ | Low+ | Med+ | Med+ | Low+ | Low- | Low- | Low- | Low- | Low- |
+| **Healthcare** | Low+ | — | Low- | Low- | Low+ | Low- | Med+ | Low- | Med+ | Low- | Low- |
+| **Financials** | Low+ | Low- | — | Med+ | Low+ | Med+ | Low- | Low+ | Low- | Med+ | Low+ |
+| **Disc** | Med+ | Low- | Med+ | — | Med+ | Med+ | Low- | Low- | Low- | Low- | Low+ |
+| **Comm Svcs** | Med+ | Low+ | Low+ | Med+ | — | Low+ | Low+ | Low- | Low+ | Low- | Low- |
+| **Industrials** | Low+ | Low- | Med+ | Med+ | Low+ | — | Low- | Med+ | Low- | Low- | Med+ |
+| **Staples** | Low- | Med+ | Low- | Low- | Low+ | Low- | — | Low- | Med+ | Low+ | Low- |
+| **Energy** | Low- | Low- | Low+ | Low- | Low- | Med+ | Low- | — | Low- | Low- | Med+ |
+| **Utilities** | Low- | Med+ | Low- | Low- | Low+ | Low- | Med+ | Low- | — | Med+ | Low- |
+| **Real Estate** | Low- | Low- | Med+ | Low- | Low- | Low- | Low+ | Low- | Med+ | — | Low- |
+| **Materials** | Low- | Low- | Low+ | Low+ | Low- | Med+ | Low- | Med+ | Low- | Low- | — |
+
+**Key:** Med+ = moderate positive correlation (0.4–0.7) | Low+ = low positive (0.1–0.4) | Low- = low negative or near-zero (-0.2–0.1)
+
+### Sector Sensitivity to Key Macro Variables
+
+| Macro Variable | Strong Positive | Moderate Positive | Neutral | Moderate Negative | Strong Negative |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| Rising interest rates | Financials | Energy, Materials | Industrials, Tech | Consumer Disc, Comm Svcs | Utilities, Real Estate |
+| Falling interest rates | Utilities, Real Estate | Tech, Healthcare | Staples | Financials | — |
+| Rising oil/energy prices | Energy | Materials, Industrials | Healthcare | Consumer Disc, Staples | Airlines (Disc) |
+| Falling oil prices | Consumer Disc, Airlines | Staples, Tech | Financials | Energy | Materials |
+| USD strengthening | Domestic Staples, Utilities | Financials | Healthcare | Tech (exports), Industrials | Materials, Energy |
+| USD weakening | Tech (multinationals), Materials | Energy, Industrials | Healthcare | Domestic Utilities | — |
+| GDP acceleration | Industrials, Materials, Energy | Tech, Financials, Disc | Comm Svcs | — | Utilities, Staples |
+| Recession / GDP contraction | Utilities, Staples, Healthcare | — | Comm Svcs | Financials, Industrials | Energy, Materials, Disc |
+| Inflation rising | Energy, Materials | Real Estate | Industrials | Tech (multiple compression) | Utilities, Staples |
+| Inflation falling | Utilities, Real Estate, Tech | Healthcare, Disc | Financials | Energy | Materials |
+| Credit spread widening | Utilities, Staples, Healthcare | — | Tech | Financials, Real Estate | Disc, Industrials |
+
+---
+
+## Sector Momentum Scoring
+
+Rank all 11 sectors on a 1–11 scale (1 = strongest, 11 = weakest) across four dimensions, then produce a composite rank. Update this scoring monthly or after significant macro events.
+
+### Scoring Dimensions
+
+| Dimension | How to Score | Data Source |
+|---|---|---|
+| **3M Price Return** | Rank sectors by 3-month total return vs. each other | Bloomberg, ETF returns (XLK, XLV, etc.) |
+| **Earnings Revision Trend** | % of analysts raising forward EPS estimates (breadth) | FactSet, Bloomberg consensus |
+| **Forward P/E vs. 10Y Historical Average** | Discount = high score; premium = low score | FactSet, LSEG |
+| **Analyst Sentiment** | Net buy ratings minus sell ratings as % of total | Bloomberg, Refinitiv |
+
+### Momentum Scorecard Template
+
+```
+Sector                  3M Return  EPS Revisions  Fwd P/E vs Hist  Analyst Sent.  Composite Rank
+Information Technology  [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Healthcare              [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Financials              [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Consumer Discretionary  [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Communication Services  [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Industrials             [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Consumer Staples        [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Energy                  [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Utilities               [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Real Estate             [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+Materials               [1-11]     [1-11]         [1-11]           [1-11]         [avg rank]
+```
+
+### Composite Rank Interpretation
+
+| Composite Rank | Action |
+|---|---|
+| 1–3 | Strong overweight — broad-based positive momentum |
+| 4–5 | Moderate overweight — mostly positive signals |
+| 6–7 | Neutral weight — mixed signals |
+| 8–9 | Underweight — mostly negative signals |
+| 10–11 | Avoid / underweight significantly — broad deterioration |
+
+**Weighting Suggestion:** Equal-weight all four dimensions as a starting point. Tilt to 40% price return + 30% EPS revisions + 20% valuation + 10% sentiment for a momentum-focused strategy.
+
+---
+
+## Peer Benchmarking Within Sector
+
+When analyzing a specific stock, compare it against its sector median to identify relative attractiveness. Use this template for every individual stock recommendation within a sector rotation context.
+
+### Single Stock vs. Sector Median Template
+
+```
+Stock: [TICKER] — [Company Name]
+Sector: [GICS Sector]
+Comparison Date: [Date] | Source: [FactSet / Bloomberg / Company Filings]
+
+DIMENSION              STOCK VALUE    SECTOR MEDIAN    PREMIUM / DISCOUNT    SCORE (1-5)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+VALUATION
+  Forward P/E          [x.x]x         [x.x]x           [+/- x%]              [1-5]
+  EV/EBITDA            [x.x]x         [x.x]x           [+/- x%]              [1-5]
+  Price/Sales          [x.x]x         [x.x]x           [+/- x%]              [1-5]
+  Price/Book           [x.x]x         [x.x]x           [+/- x%]              [1-5]
+  Dividend Yield       [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x bps]           [1-5]
+
+GROWTH
+  Revenue Growth (TTM) [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x%]              [1-5]
+  EPS Growth (FY est.) [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x%]              [1-5]
+  Revenue Growth (3Y)  [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x%]              [1-5]
+
+MARGINS & QUALITY
+  Gross Margin         [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x bps]           [1-5]
+  EBITDA Margin        [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x bps]           [1-5]
+  Net Margin           [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x bps]           [1-5]
+  ROIC                 [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x bps]           [1-5]
+  ROE                  [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x bps]           [1-5]
+  Debt/EBITDA          [x.x]x         [x.x]x           [+/- x%]              [1-5]
+  FCF Yield            [x.x]%         [x.x]%           [+/- x bps]           [1-5]
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+COMPOSITE QUALITY SCORE                                                       [avg/5]
+```
+
+### Quality Score Interpretation
+
+| Score | Interpretation |
+|---|---|
+| 4.5–5.0 | Sector leader — significant premium justified |
+| 3.5–4.4 | Above-sector-average quality — moderate premium justified |
+| 2.5–3.4 | In-line with sector — valuation should be at-market |
+| 1.5–2.4 | Below-sector quality — discount warranted |
+| 1.0–1.4 | Sector laggard — avoid unless deep value thesis exists |
+
+**Scoring Convention:** For valuation metrics, cheaper = higher score (a stock trading at a discount to peers on P/E scores 5, a premium scores 1). For growth, margins, and quality metrics, higher is better.
+
+---
+
+## Sector-Specific Risk Factors
+
+Each sector carries idiosyncratic risks beyond broad market beta. Always assess these in the context of the current macro and regulatory environment before establishing a position.
+
+### Information Technology
+- **Regulatory / Antitrust Risk:** Large-cap platforms (search, social, cloud) face ongoing EU Digital Markets Act enforcement, DOJ antitrust cases, and potential structural remedies. Headline risk can compress multiples even without earnings impact.
+- **AI Disruption / Obsolescence Risk:** Generative AI rapidly changes competitive positioning — incumbents may be disrupted faster than traditional product cycles. Evaluate whether a company is a beneficiary or a target.
+- **Semiconductor Supply Chain & Export Controls:** TSMC concentration, US-China export restrictions on advanced chips (EAR controls), and geopolitical risk in Taiwan can cause severe supply shocks.
+
+### Healthcare
+- **FDA Approval Risk / Clinical Trial Binary Events:** Drug pipeline stocks carry binary event risk at Phase 2/3 readouts and FDA PDUFA dates; a single rejection can cause 40–70% drawdowns.
+- **Patent Cliff Risk:** Major pharmaceuticals face loss of exclusivity (LOE) on blockbuster drugs — revenue can fall 80%+ within 2 years of generic entry; assess pipeline coverage vs. patent expiry schedule.
+- **Drug Pricing / CMS Negotiation:** IRA Medicare drug price negotiation and political pressure on list prices compress revenue visibility for large pharma and biotech.
+
+### Financials
+- **Interest Rate Sensitivity (NIM Compression):** Banks' net interest margins expand with rate hikes but compress when rates fall or the yield curve inverts; this is the single largest driver of bank earnings variability.
+- **Credit Cycle Risk:** Loan loss provisions surge in recessions; commercial real estate (CRE) exposure is a persistent concern for regional banks. Monitor non-performing loan (NPL) ratios closely.
+- **Regulatory Capital Requirements (Basel III/IV):** Evolving capital adequacy rules (CET1 requirements, stress test results) constrain buyback capacity and ROE generation for large banks.
+
+### Consumer Discretionary
+- **Consumer Balance Sheet Health:** This sector is most exposed to rising consumer debt, declining savings rates, and credit tightening — especially for big-ticket items (autos, appliances, travel).
+- **Tariff and Import Cost Risk:** Heavy reliance on offshore manufacturing (apparel, electronics, footwear) means tariff escalation directly compresses margins before pricing power can respond.
+- **Secular Shift in Spending (Physical vs. Digital):** Traditional retail faces ongoing structural displacement from e-commerce; under-differentiated brick-and-mortar operators face secular decline.
+
+### Communication Services
+- **Streaming Profitability Inflection Risk:** Media/streaming companies face pressure to convert subscriber growth to sustained free cash flow; content cost inflation and competition from tech giants compress margins.
+- **Advertising Cyclicality:** Digital ad revenue is highly correlated with GDP growth and corporate spending budgets — falls sharply in recessions (Google, Meta ad revenue dropped 15–25% in prior downturns).
+- **Spectrum Allocation and Infrastructure Costs:** Telecom operators face large, lumpy capex cycles tied to 5G and fiber buildouts, with uncertain return timelines and regulatory pricing constraints.
+
+### Industrials
+- **Government Defense/Infrastructure Budget Dependency:** Defense contractors and infrastructure-linked industrials are highly sensitive to Congressional appropriations, sequestration risk, and multi-year contract cancellations.
+- **Supply Chain Disruption and Input Cost Inflation:** Aerospace and industrial machinery have long production cycles — shortages in specialty materials (titanium, rare earth components) or labor can cause years-long delivery delays.
+- **Labor Cost Pressure and Union Risk:** Heavily unionized manufacturing sectors (aerospace, auto, rail) face periodic strike risk and multi-year wage escalation that can compress margins durably.
+
+### Consumer Staples
+- **Private Label / Retailer Margin Squeeze:** In cost-of-living crisis periods, consumers trade down to retailer own-brand products, reducing branded CPG companies' pricing power and volume.
+- **Input Cost Volatility (Commodities, Packaging):** Agricultural commodity inputs (wheat, corn, sugar, palm oil) and energy-intensive packaging are subject to price spikes that compress gross margins with a lag.
+- **Emerging Market Currency and Political Risk:** Many staples companies derive 30–50% of revenue from EM; local currency depreciation and political instability can materially impact reported earnings.
+
+### Energy
+- **Commodity Price Cycle Risk:** Oil and gas earnings are almost entirely driven by the WTI/Brent/Henry Hub price — a 20% oil price decline can eliminate 40–60% of sector earnings in a single quarter.
+- **Energy Transition / Stranded Asset Risk:** Long-duration upstream assets (offshore fields, oil sands) carry the risk of becoming stranded as renewable penetration accelerates and carbon pricing expands.
+- **Geopolitical Supply Disruption:** OPEC+ production decisions, Middle East conflict, Russian supply constraints, and US shale production responses create persistent supply uncertainty that makes earnings forecasting highly uncertain.
+
+### Utilities
+- **Interest Rate / Bond Proxy Risk:** Utilities are priced as bond proxies — rising 10Y Treasury yields directly compress valuations as yield-seeking capital rotates to risk-free alternatives; every 100bps rate rise compresses sector P/E by 1–2 turns historically.
+- **Regulatory Rate Case Risk:** Utility earnings are set by state/federal regulators through rate cases; adverse rulings can cap ROE and delay capital recovery for large infrastructure investments.
+- **Renewable Build-Out Execution Risk:** Ambitious clean energy transition capex (solar, wind, grid modernization) carries construction delay risk, cost overruns, and financing risk in a volatile rate environment.
+
+### Real Estate (REITs)
+- **Interest Rate Sensitivity and Refinancing Risk:** REITs use significant leverage; rising rates increase interest expense and cap rate expansion reduces property valuations. Floating-rate debt exposure is a critical variable.
+- **Property-Type Secular Trends:** Office REITs face structural demand destruction from hybrid work; retail REITs face e-commerce headwinds. Not all REIT sub-sectors face the same structural forces.
+- **Credit Market Access:** REITs must access capital markets regularly to fund growth; credit spread widening and bank lending tightness during stress periods can trap overleveraged operators.
+
+### Materials
+- **Commodity Price Volatility:** Earnings are almost entirely driven by copper, aluminum, gold, steel, or chemical feedstock prices — these are globally set and subject to large cyclical swings.
+- **China Demand Dependency:** China accounts for 50–60% of global demand for base metals; property sector weakness, infrastructure slowdown, or trade tensions in China have outsized effects on global Materials earnings.
+- **Environmental Regulation and Mine Permitting:** Mining and chemical companies face increasingly stringent environmental standards, permitting delays (often 5–10 years for new mines), and carbon pricing that raises operating costs durably.
+
+---
+
+## Sector ETF Reference
+
+| Sector | SPDR ETF | Alternative |
+|---|---|---|
+| Information Technology | XLK | VGT, QQQ |
+| Healthcare | XLV | VHT |
+| Financials | XLF | VFH |
+| Consumer Discretionary | XLY | VCR |
+| Communication Services | XLC | VOX |
+| Industrials | XLI | VIS |
+| Consumer Staples | XLP | VDC |
+| Energy | XLE | VDE |
+| Utilities | XLU | VPU |
+| Real Estate | XLRE | VNQ |
+| Materials | XLB | VAW |
+
+## Output
+
+Provide sector analysis with:
+- Current sector rankings and momentum
+- Economic cycle assessment
+- Sector rotation recommendations
+- Top stock picks within favored sectors
+- Sectors to underweight/avoid
+- Risk considerations by sector
+- Expected catalysts and timeframes
+- Implementation strategy (ETFs vs. individual stocks)
+
+Keep recommendations aligned with macro outlook and risk management principles.
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- sector underperforms S&P 500 by >10% over 3 months AND rate regime turns unfavorable
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- sector rotates into leadership AND sector P/E discount to S&P closes
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+**Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+**Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+**Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.