@v587d/capital-generation 2.6.5 → 2.7.1

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/institutional-ownership/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: institutional-ownership
+description: Track changes in institutional holdings and identify smart money moves from 13F filings
+---
+
+# Institutional Ownership Analysis
+
+## ⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis
+
+Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the ticker:
+
+1. **Fetch current price** — get the live price, 52-week range, and market cap through the host's own data path. In a host that splits roles, delegate the request with an exact brief (ticker, fields, as-of date) rather than searching from this step. Never assume a price from training data.
+2. **Confirm key figures** — recent earnings, revenue, key ratios (P/E, P/S, etc.) as applicable to this skill.
+3. **State your data source** — fill in the `Data & Sources` header (next section) so the origin, as-of date, retrieval path, and confidence of every figure are explicit at the top of the output.
+4. **Stop on missing data** — if a figure cannot be retrieved through the host's data path, name what is missing and stop; the analysis does not run on remembered values:
+
+> ⚠️ **Data unavailable.** <list the figures this analysis could not retrieve>. Those fields are reported as missing and are not estimated — retrieval is a precondition, not a nicety.
+
+Never substitute a remembered value for a retrieved one. Getting the number is the host data path's job — delegate it; asking the user to paste is the last resort only where the host has no retrieval path at all.
+
+---
+
+## 📋 Data & Sources Header — Open Every Output With It
+
+The first thing in the output is this provenance block, filled in — never left as placeholders. It is the standard documented on the [Data & Accuracy](https://yennanliu.github.io/InvestSkill/data-and-accuracy.html) page and the first thing `result-validator` looks for:
+
+```
+Data & Sources
+  As of:      <date the figures represent, e.g. 2026-06-30>
+  Source:     <primary docs — SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q, company IR, FRED, exchange data …>
+  Retrieval:  <delegated retrieval | web/tool retrieval | pasted by user>
+  Confidence: <HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW>
+```
+
+- Memory is not a retrieval path. A figure that was neither retrieved nor supplied by the user is reported as missing, never estimated — and never written into this block as if it had been retrieved.
+- Mixed sources: list each with its own as-of date rather than blending them.
+- Data the user pasted is reported as `pasted by user`; do not upgrade its confidence beyond what the user's own source supports.
+
+---
+
+Comprehensive analysis of institutional investor holdings to identify "smart money" trends, ownership concentration, and investment signals from SEC 13F filings.
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+### 1. Institutional Ownership Overview
+
+Provide current snapshot of institutional holdings:
+
+**Aggregate Statistics**
+- Total institutional ownership: [%] of shares outstanding
+- Number of institutional holders: [N]
+- Total shares held by institutions: [Number] shares
+- Total value held: $[Amount]
+- Float ownership by institutions: [%] (excl. insider holdings)
+
+**Ownership Trend (4 Quarters)**
+```
+Quarter        Institutional %    # of Holders    Change from Prior
+[Qn YYYY]          [%]                [N]              [±%]
+[Qn-1 YYYY]        [%]                [N]              [±%]
+[Qn-2 YYYY]        [%]                [N]              [±%]
+[Qn-3 YYYY]        [%]                [N]              [±%]
+```
+
+**Trend Interpretation**
+- **Increasing ownership**: Growing institutional interest = Bullish
+- **Stable ownership**: Maintained confidence = Neutral to Bullish
+- **Decreasing ownership**: Distribution or loss of confidence = Bearish
+
+### 2. Top Institutional Holders
+
+Identify and analyze largest institutional positions:
+
+**Top 10 Holders Table**
+
+| Rank | Institution | Type | Shares Held | Value ($M) | % of Portfolio | % of Company | Change (QoQ) |
+|------|-------------|------|-------------|------------|----------------|--------------|--------------|
+| 1 | Vanguard Group | Index | 45.2M | $6,780 | 0.8% | 8.5% | +2.1% |
+| 2 | BlackRock | Index | 38.1M | $5,715 | 0.6% | 7.2% | +1.5% |
+| 3 | State Street | Index | 22.3M | $3,345 | 1.2% | 4.2% | -0.3% |
+| 4 | Fidelity | Active | 18.7M | $2,805 | 2.1% | 3.5% | +15.2% |
+| 5 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+**Holder Categories**
+- **Index Funds** (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street): Follow index weights, less signal
+- **Active Managers** (Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Wellington): Stock selection, more signal
+- **Hedge Funds** (Bridgewater, Citadel, Renaissance): Tactical, high signal value
+- **Pension Funds** (CalPERS, CalSTRS): Long-term, moderate signal
+- **Sovereign Wealth Funds**: Very long-term, strategic positions
+
+### 3. Quarter-over-Quarter Position Changes
+
+Analyze recent changes in institutional holdings:
+
+**New Positions (Initiated)**
+- Institutions that added stock for first time in recent quarter
+- Particularly meaningful if from notable investors
+- Indicates new conviction or thesis development
+
+| Institution | Shares | Value ($M) | % of Their Portfolio | Significance |
+|-------------|--------|------------|---------------------|--------------|
+| ARK Invest | 2.5M | $375 | 3.2% | High (active, thematic) |
+| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+**Increased Positions (>25% increase)**
+- Institutions that significantly added to existing position
+- Shows growing conviction
+- More meaningful if they're "adding to winners"
+
+| Institution | Previous Shares | New Shares | Change | New Value | Notes |
+|-------------|----------------|------------|--------|-----------|-------|
+| ValueAct Capital | 5.0M | 8.2M | +64% | $1,230M | Activist, 4th increase |
+| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+**Decreased Positions (>25% decrease)**
+- Institutions that significantly reduced holdings
+- May indicate profit-taking, thesis change, or risk management
+- Consider whether selling from highs or lows
+
+| Institution | Previous Shares | New Shares | Change | Current Value | Reason |
+|-------------|----------------|------------|--------|---------------|--------|
+| Tiger Global | 12.0M | 4.5M | -62% | $675M | Reducing tech exposure |
+| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+**Eliminated Positions (Sold Completely)**
+- Complete exits by institutional holders
+- Most bearish signal, especially if from concentrated holders
+- Check if stock was top holding previously
+
+| Institution | Previous Shares | Value Sold ($M) | Exit Price | Context |
+|-------------|----------------|-----------------|------------|---------|
+| Scion Asset Mgmt | 3.2M | $480 | $150 | Burry exited |
+| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+### 4. Smart Money Analysis
+
+Track notable investors and their activities:
+
+**Super Investors / Gurus** (Defined as legendary investors or top-performing fund managers)
+
+**Bullish Signals - Notable Buyers**
+| Investor | Institution | Action | Shares | Value ($M) | % of Their Portfolio | Signal Strength |
+|----------|-------------|--------|--------|------------|---------------------|-----------------|
+| Warren Buffett | Berkshire Hathaway | New Position | 50.0M | $7,500 | 4.5% | VERY HIGH |
+| Bill Ackman | Pershing Square | Increased 80% | 8.5M | $1,275 | 8.2% | HIGH |
+| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+**Bearish Signals - Notable Sellers**
+| Investor | Institution | Action | Shares Sold | Value ($M) | Reason (if stated) | Signal Strength |
+|----------|-------------|--------|-------------|------------|-------------------|-----------------|
+| Michael Burry | Scion Asset Mgmt | Eliminated | 3.2M | $480 | Not disclosed | HIGH |
+| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+**Notable Investor Categories**
+1. **Value Investors**: Buffett, Klarman, Pabrai, Greenblatt
+2. **Growth Investors**: T. Rowe Price, Baron, Baillie Gifford
+3. **Activist Investors**: Icahn, Ackman, Loeb, ValueAct
+4. **Quant/Macro**: Bridgewater, Renaissance, AQR, Two Sigma
+5. **Tech-Focused**: ARK Invest, Tiger Global, Coatue
+
+**Why Smart Money Matters**
+- Superior research resources and information access
+- Proven track records of alpha generation
+- Often catalyst for stock re-rating
+- Activist investors can drive corporate changes
+- Attracts other institutional followers
+
+### 5. Ownership Concentration Analysis
+
+Assess how concentrated institutional ownership is:
+
+**Concentration Metrics**
+- **Top 3 holders**: [%] of shares outstanding
+- **Top 10 holders**: [%] of shares outstanding
+- **Top 25 holders**: [%] of shares outstanding
+- **HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index)**: [Score] (concentration measure)
+
+**Interpretation**
+- **High concentration** (Top 10 > 50%):
+  - Pro: Strong conviction from major holders
+  - Con: Volatile if large holder exits
+  - Common in: Small-caps, founder-led companies
+
+- **Medium concentration** (Top 10 = 30-50%):
+  - Balanced ownership structure
+  - Most large-cap companies
+
+- **Low concentration** (Top 10 < 30%):
+  - Widely distributed ownership
+  - More stable, less influenced by single holder
+  - Common in: Mega-caps, index heavyweights
+
+**Turnover Analysis**
+- Holder retention rate: [%] of holders from 1 year ago still holding
+- New entrants (last 12 months): [N] institutions
+- Complete exits (last 12 months): [N] institutions
+- Net holder change: [+/-N]
+
+**Stability Assessment**
+- High retention + new entrants = Strengthening conviction (Bullish)
+- High retention + no new entrants = Stable (Neutral)
+- Low retention + exits = Weakening conviction (Bearish)
+
+### 6. Activist & Strategic Holders
+
+Identify and analyze activist investors or strategic stakeholders:
+
+**Activist Investors (>5% ownership or known activist activity)**
+
+For each activist position:
+- **Investor Name & Fund**
+- **Ownership %**: Current stake
+- **Entry Date & Price**: When position was initiated
+- **Current Value**: Mark-to-market
+- **Activist Thesis**: What changes they're pushing for
+- **Progress**: Status of their initiatives
+- **Track Record**: Success rate in similar situations
+
+**Types of Activist Campaigns**
+1. **Operational Improvements**: Cost cuts, margin expansion, divestitures
+2. **Capital Allocation**: Increased buybacks, dividends, M&A
+3. **Strategic Alternatives**: Sale of company, merger, spin-offs
+4. **Board Changes**: New directors, CEO replacement
+5. **Governance**: ESG initiatives, compensation reforms
+
+**Impact Assessment**
+- Historical success rate of this activist at peer companies
+- Management's receptiveness to proposals
+- Other shareholders' support
+- Potential value unlock if successful
+- Timeline to value realization
+
+### 7. Portfolio Weight Analysis
+
+Analyze how important the position is to each holder:
+
+**High-Conviction Holders** (Position is >5% of their portfolio)
+| Institution | Shares | Value ($M) | % of Their Portfolio | Rank in Portfolio | Recent Action |
+|-------------|--------|------------|---------------------|-------------------|---------------|
+| Akre Capital | 4.2M | $630 | 8.5% | #2 holding | Increased |
+| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
+
+**Interpretation**
+- **High portfolio weight**: Strong conviction, more research depth
+- **Top 10 holding**: Likely actively managed and monitored
+- **Increases to high-conviction holding**: Very bullish signal
+- **Decreases from high-conviction**: Concerning if thesis change
+
+**Position Sizing Trends**
+- How many institutions have it as top 10 holding: [N]
+- How many increased portfolio weight: [N] (bullish)
+- How many decreased portfolio weight: [N] (bearish)
+- Average portfolio weight: [%]
+
+### 8. Stock Price Performance Correlation
+
+Analyze relationship between ownership changes and stock performance:
+
+**Performance During Institutional Activity**
+```
+Period: [Qn YYYY]
+Institutional Change: [±%] ownership (net buying / selling)
+Stock Price Change: [±%]
+S&P 500 Change: [±%]
+Outperformance: [±%]
+```
+
+**Historical Pattern Analysis**
+- Correlation between institutional buying and subsequent returns
+- Lead/lag relationship (do institutions front-run or follow?)
+- Performance after smart money buys vs. sells
+
+**Predictive Value**
+- **High predictive value scenarios**:
+  - Multiple smart money managers buying
+  - Activist initiating position
+  - Institutions buying during weakness
+  - First-time institutional coverage
+
+- **Low predictive value scenarios**:
+  - Index rebalancing flows
+  - ETF creation/redemption
+  - Tax-loss selling end-of-year
+  - Merger arbitrage activity
+
+### 9. Data Sources & Filing Requirements
+
+Reference the following sources for institutional ownership data:
+
+**Primary Source - SEC 13F Filings**
+- **What**: Quarterly holdings reports required of institutional investment managers exercising investment discretion over **≥ $100 million in Section 13(f) securities** (the test is 13(f) securities under management, not the firm's total AUM)
+- **Who**: Institutional investment managers
+- **When**: Filed within 45 days of quarter-end
+- **Where**: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&type=13F
+
+**13F Filing Calendar**
+- Q1 (Mar 31) → Filed by May 15
+- Q2 (Jun 30) → Filed by Aug 14
+- Q3 (Sep 30) → Filed by Nov 14
+- Q4 (Dec 31) → Filed by Feb 14
+
+**Important Limitations**
+- 45-day lag (data is stale)
+- Only long positions reported (shorts not disclosed)
+- Options and ADRs may not be reported
+- Some holdings can be confidentially withheld
+- $200K or 10,000 share threshold per position
+
+**Schedule 13D/G Filings** (>5% ownership)
+- **13D**: Activist investors with intent to influence
+  - Initial filing within **5 business days** of crossing 5% (SEC rule effective 2024-02-05; previously 10 calendar days)
+  - Amendments for material changes (≥ 1%) within **2 business days**
+  - Includes plans and intentions
+
+- **13G**: Passive investors, no control intent
+  - Deadlines depend on filer type (revised schedule in force since 2024-09-30): qualified institutional investors — 45 days after the quarter-end in which they cross 5%, or 5 business days after month-end once above 10%; passive investors — 5 business days after crossing 5%; exempt investors — 45 days after quarter-end
+  - Verify the current deadline on sec.gov before dating a filing as late
+  - Simplified reporting for passive positions
+
+**Aggregator Services**
+- **WhaleWisdom.com**: Free 13F database with analytics
+- **Dataroma**: Tracks super investor portfolios
+- **GuruFocus**: Premium institutional tracking
+- **Whalewisdom**: Advanced screening and alerts
+- **Bloomberg/FactSet**: Comprehensive institutional data (paid)
+
+### 10. Red Flags & Warning Signs
+
+Identify concerning patterns in institutional ownership:
+
+**High-Severity Red Flags**
+- Multiple smart money managers exiting simultaneously
+- Decreasing ownership despite rising stock price (selling into strength)
+- Activist investor exiting after failed campaign
+- Large holders selling >50% of position
+- Net institutional selling for 3+ consecutive quarters
+
+**Medium-Severity Red Flags**
+- Increasing number of holder exits (even if small positions)
+- Declining portfolio weights across multiple holders
+- No new institutional buyers despite attractive valuation
+- High turnover among holders (low retention)
+
+**Positive Signals**
+- Smart money buying during market selloff
+- New positions from value-oriented long-term holders
+- Activist entering with specific value-creation plan
+- Increasing high-conviction holdings (>5% of portfolio)
+- Multiple quarters of consistent net institutional buying
+
+## Input Formats
+
+### Format 1: Ticker Symbol
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership AAPL
+
+Claude retrieves latest 13F data and analyzes recent changes
+```
+
+### Format 2: Specific Holder Tracking
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership TSLA --track "Berkshire,ARK,Scion"
+
+Claude focuses on specific institutional holders' activity
+```
+
+### Format 3: Custom Data Analysis
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership --data
+
+[Paste 13F data table from WhaleWisdom or SEC]
+
+Claude analyzes provided institutional holdings data
+```
+
+## Output
+
+Provide comprehensive institutional ownership analysis report with:
+
+### 1. Executive Summary
+- **Overall Institutional Sentiment**: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
+- **Confidence Level**: High / Medium / Low
+- **Key Findings**: 3-5 most important insights
+- **Investment Signal**: Buy / Hold / Sell indication
+- **Smart Money Direction**: Net buying / selling
+
+### 2. Ownership Overview
+- Current institutional ownership %
+- Trend over last 4 quarters
+- Number of holders and change
+- Total value held
+
+### 3. Top 10 Holders
+Detailed table with position sizes, changes, and portfolio weights
+
+### 4. Recent Activity Summary
+- New positions count and notable investors
+- Increased positions (>25% increases)
+- Decreased positions (>25% decreases)
+- Eliminated positions
+
+### 5. Smart Money Tracker
+Notable investors' activity with signal strength assessment
+
+### 6. Ownership Concentration
+- Top 3/10/25 holder concentration
+- Turnover and stability metrics
+- Assessment of ownership structure
+
+### 7. Activist & Strategic Holdings
+Any activist investors or strategic stakeholders (>5% ownership)
+
+### 8. High-Conviction Holders
+Institutions with >5% portfolio weight in this stock
+
+### 9. Performance Correlation
+Stock performance during periods of institutional buying/selling
+
+### 10. Red Flags & Positive Signals
+- Warning signs identified
+- Bullish indicators present
+- Severity assessment
+
+### 11. Investment Implications
+- Overall assessment and confidence
+- Key bullish factors from institutional data
+- Key bearish factors or concerns
+- Recommended action
+- Key levels/catalysts to monitor
+
+### 12. Data Sources & Timing
+- 13F filing quarter analyzed
+- Number of 13F filings reviewed
+- Any data limitations or gaps
+
+## Interpretation Guidelines
+
+### When Institutional Buying is STRONGLY Bullish
+1. Smart money managers initiating or significantly increasing (>50%)
+2. Multiple value investors buying same stock
+3. Activist investor initiating with specific value-creation plan
+4. Net institutional buying for 3+ consecutive quarters
+5. Buying during market weakness (contrarian signal)
+
+### When Institutional Buying is MODERATELY Bullish
+1. Increasing ownership trend (1-2 quarters)
+2. Growing number of institutional holders
+3. New positions from credible active managers
+4. Increasing portfolio weights across multiple holders
+
+### When Institutional Selling is LESS Concerning
+1. Index fund rebalancing (mechanical selling)
+2. Profit-taking after significant appreciation
+3. Small position eliminations (<1% of portfolio)
+4. Single quarter of selling after long accumulation
+5. Sector rotation or style drift
+
+### When Institutional Selling is CONCERNING
+1. Smart money managers exiting completely
+2. Activist investors giving up and selling
+3. Selling during stock decline (lack of confidence)
+4. Multiple quarters of net institutional selling
+5. Decreasing number of holders
+
+### Signal Reliability Factors
+- **Quality of holders**: Smart money > Index funds
+- **Conviction level**: High portfolio weights = stronger signal
+- **Consistency**: Multiple quarters of buying/selling = stronger
+- **Context**: Buying weakness or selling strength = stronger signal
+- **Magnitude**: Large position changes = stronger signal
+
+## Usage Examples
+
+### Example 1: Basic Analysis
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership NVDA
+
+Claude: Reads the latest quarter's 13F filings and reports the change in
+institutional ownership, new and exited holders, and the largest adds and
+trims by named manager, then closes with the signal block.
+```
+
+### Example 2: Smart Money Tracking
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership META --smart-money
+
+Claude: Restricts the holder analysis to the smart-money list above and
+reports each manager's position change for the quarter.
+```
+
+### Example 3: Comparative Analysis
+```
+User: /institutional-ownership AAPL MSFT GOOGL --compare
+
+Claude: Runs the same ownership-trend and smart-money checks on each ticker
+and ranks them by net institutional accumulation.
+```
+
+## Integration Notes
+
+- Combine with /insider-trading for complete ownership analysis
+- Use with /stock-eval for comprehensive due diligence
+- Feed to /report-generator for visual ownership trend charts
+- Best used quarterly after 13F filing deadlines (May, Aug, Nov, Feb)
+- Particularly valuable for small-mid cap stocks where institutional buying can be catalyst
+- Less meaningful for mega-caps where ownership changes are primarily index-driven
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- top 3 holders reduce positions by >20% in a single quarter
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- 2+ top-tier institutions (BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity) initiate new positions
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+**Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+**Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+**Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.