@v587d/capital-generation 2.6.5 → 2.7.1

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/earnings-preview/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,277 @@
+---
+name: earnings-preview
+description: The before-earnings skill — consensus vs. whisper, 8-quarter beat rate and post-print move distribution, options-implied vs. realized move, what the current price already assumes, the KPIs to watch, and a three-scenario grid (beat-and-raise / beat-and-lower / miss) with expected reaction and a position rule for each
+---
+
+# Earnings Preview — What Is Priced In Before the Print
+
+## ⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis
+
+Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the ticker:
+
+1. **Fetch current price** — get the live price, 52-week range, and market cap through the host's own data path. In a host that splits roles, delegate the request with an exact brief (ticker, fields, as-of date) rather than searching from this step. Never assume a price from training data.
+2. **Confirm the event and the expectations** — the **confirmed earnings date and time (BMO / AMC)** from the company's IR page (not a calendar estimate), the current **consensus revenue / EPS / guidance** with its as-of date, the **prior guidance range** management gave last quarter, and **current option prices** for the expiration that spans the print (at-the-money straddle, or implied volatility). Never carry consensus from memory — it moves in the final two weeks.
+3. **State your data source** — fill in the `Data & Sources` header (next section) so the origin, as-of date, retrieval path, and confidence of every figure are explicit at the top of the output.
+4. **Stop on missing data** — if a figure cannot be retrieved through the host's data path, name what is missing and stop; the analysis does not run on remembered values:
+
+> ⚠️ **Data unavailable.** <list the figures this analysis could not retrieve>. Those fields are reported as missing and are not estimated — retrieval is a precondition, not a nicety.
+
+Never substitute a remembered value for a retrieved one. Getting the number is the host data path's job — delegate it; asking the user to paste is the last resort only where the host has no retrieval path at all.
+
+---
+
+## 📋 Data & Sources Header — Open Every Output With It
+
+The first thing in the output is this provenance block, filled in — never left as placeholders. It is the standard documented on the [Data & Accuracy](https://yennanliu.github.io/InvestSkill/data-and-accuracy.html) page and the first thing `result-validator` looks for:
+
+```
+Data & Sources
+  As of:      <date the figures represent, e.g. 2026-06-30>
+  Source:     <primary docs — SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q, company IR, FRED, exchange data …>
+  Retrieval:  <delegated retrieval | web/tool retrieval | pasted by user>
+  Confidence: <HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW>
+```
+
+- Memory is not a retrieval path. A figure that was neither retrieved nor supplied by the user is reported as missing, never estimated — and never written into this block as if it had been retrieved.
+- Mixed sources: list each with its own as-of date rather than blending them.
+- Data the user pasted is reported as `pasted by user`; do not upgrade its confidence beyond what the user's own source supports.
+
+---
+
+## Overview
+
+The catalog already covers earnings *after* the fact: `earnings-call-analysis` reads the transcript, `financial-report-analyst` reads the 10-Q, `catalyst-calendar` puts the date on a list. None of them answers the question a holder actually has in the week before the print: **what does the market already expect, how has this stock treated good news before, and what am I going to do in each outcome — decided now, while I am calm?**
+
+This skill is that pre-commitment. It produces four things no post-call skill can:
+
+1. **The expectation stack** — published consensus, the buy-side "whisper" above it, and management's own prior guidance, so a "beat" can be judged against the number that actually matters.
+2. **The stock's own history with beats** — eight quarters of beat/miss against the next-day move, which is where "beat and drop" patterns live.
+3. **What the price already assumes** — the growth and margin the current quote requires, so the reader knows whether a beat is *news* or merely *confirmation*.
+4. **A three-scenario grid with a rule attached to each cell** — so the reaction on print day is execution, not decision.
+
+**What it is not.** It does not predict the print. Nobody knows the number; the skill's value is in knowing what *others* expect and what *you* will do. It is also not an options strategy tool — it reads the options market for its implied move and hands strategy selection to `options-analysis`.
+
+Pairs with `earnings-call-analysis` (run it *after*, on the transcript), `options-analysis` (strategy for the implied move), `catalyst-calendar` (the date and the events around it), `thesis-tracker` (the print is a scheduled next-check — the KPIs here should be the KPIs there), and `position-ladder` (the position rules in the scenario grid should respect its share-count ceiling).
+
+---
+
+## 1. Inputs
+
+| Input | Required | Default if unstated |
+|-------|----------|---------------------|
+| Ticker | ✅ | — |
+| Confirmed earnings date and time (BMO / AMC) | ✅ | fetch from company IR; if only a calendar estimate exists, say so and mark Confidence MEDIUM at best |
+| Current consensus: revenue, EPS, next-quarter / FY guidance | ✅ | fetch or ask; state the as-of date |
+| Management's prior guidance range | ✅ | from the last press release / call |
+| Current price, ATM straddle price or IV for the expiry spanning the print | ✅ | fetch or ask |
+| Last 8 quarters: reported vs. consensus, next-day move | recommended | fetch or ask; fewer than 6 quarters → note the thin sample |
+| Prior-quarter transcript or `earnings-call-analysis` output | optional | improves the KPI list and the "what management promised" line |
+| Existing `thesis-tracker` file or `stock-eval` output | optional | supplies the KPIs and thresholds that should decide the reaction |
+| Position: shares, cost basis, ceiling from `position-ladder` | optional | needed for the position rules; otherwise rules are stated generically |
+
+**Whisper numbers are estimates, and are labeled as such.** The "whisper" is the buy-side expectation sitting above (rarely below) published consensus — the number the stock actually trades against. It is inferred from sell-side note revisions, the direction of estimate changes in the last 30 days, options skew, and sentiment sources; it is never a hard figure. Report it as a range with a source, or write `whisper: not estimable` rather than inventing one.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Framework
+
+### Phase 1 — The expectation stack
+
+Build the table of numbers the print will be judged against, in the order the market judges them:
+
+| Layer | Revenue | EPS | Next-Q guide | FY guide | Source · as of |
+|-------|---------|-----|--------------|----------|----------------|
+| Management's prior guidance (range and midpoint) | | | | | |
+| Published consensus | | | | | |
+| Consensus 30 / 90 days ago (direction of revisions) | | | | | |
+| Whisper (estimate, range) | | | | | |
+| **Gap: whisper − consensus** | | | | | |
+
+Rules of thumb:
+- A **rising consensus** into the print raises the bar: a beat against a number that has already been marked up is a smaller beat than it looks.
+- **Whisper gap > ~2% of revenue or > ~5% of EPS** means a consensus-level beat is likely to be treated as a miss. Say so plainly.
+- The **guide** is the number that moves the stock for most growth companies. If prior guidance exists, the market is asking "raise, hold, or cut?" — not "beat or miss?".
+
+### Phase 2 — How this stock treats beats (8-quarter history)
+
+| Quarter | Rev vs. consensus | EPS vs. consensus | Guide vs. consensus | Next-day move | Move vs. implied |
+|---------|-------------------|-------------------|---------------------|---------------|------------------|
+| Q-1 | +x.x% | +x.x% | raised / held / cut | ±x.x% | above / within / below |
+| … | | | | | |
+
+Then summarize:
+- **Beat rate** (revenue and EPS separately) and the **average / median next-day move**, with the **largest gap-up and gap-down**.
+- **The "beat and drop" count** — quarters in which both lines beat and the stock fell. Three or more in eight is a pattern: this stock is graded on the guide or on a KPI, not on the headline.
+- **Realized vs. implied** — how often the actual move exceeded the options-implied move. This is the input for Phase 4.
+
+Fewer than six quarters (recent IPO, spin-off) — say the sample is too thin for a base rate and lean on Phases 3 and 5 instead.
+
+### Phase 3 — What is priced in
+
+Borrow the reverse-DCF logic from `stock-valuation` in a lighter form:
+
+1. Take the current price and a defensible forward multiple (the stock's own 3-year median, or the peer median from `competitor-analysis`).
+2. Back out the **forward revenue / EPS the multiple requires** over the next 12 months.
+3. Compare with consensus: is the price *above* what consensus supports (the market already assumes a beat-and-raise), *at* it, or *below* it (a plain beat is genuine news)?
+4. State the **implied growth rate** the price needs, in one line: *"At $X and 32× forward, the price needs ~Y% EPS growth; consensus is Z%."*
+
+Add the **positioning read** where data exists: short interest and days-to-cover (`short-interest`), recent insider and institutional flow (`insider-trading`, `institutional-ownership`), and the stock's move over the last 30 days relative to its sector. A stock up 20% into the print with rising estimates has already had its beat; a stock down 15% with a stable consensus has room for relief.
+
+### Phase 4 — The implied move, and whether it is fairly priced
+
+| Measure | Value | How |
+|---------|-------|-----|
+| Options-implied move (event only) | ±x.x% | ATM straddle price ÷ stock price for the **first expiry after the print**. If that expiry is more than one session past the print, strip the non-event days so the horizon matches the next-day realized move: event move² ≈ near-straddle move² − (normal daily move)² × extra sessions, where the normal daily move comes from a longer-dated expiry's IV (IV × √(1/252)). State the horizon used |
+| Realized average move (8 quarters) | ±x.x% | from Phase 2 |
+| Realized median move | ±x.x% | robust to one outlier quarter |
+| Ratio: implied ÷ realized median | x.x | > 1.2 the market is paying up for the event; < 0.8 it is complacent |
+
+Interpretation for a **stockholder** (not an options trader): the implied move is the market's estimate of the **size** of the reaction, in either direction — it says nothing about direction and is not a downside estimate. Model the miss-side downside separately in the scenario grid (the realized moves on past misses, the distance to the valuation floor from `stock-valuation`, the `bear-case` target). Then compare: if the *larger* of the implied move and the modelled miss-side downside exceeds the distance to the holder's stop or the bottom rung of the `position-ladder`, the position size is too large for the event — that is the finding, and it belongs in the grid's "miss" rule. Options strategy selection goes to `options-analysis`.
+
+### Phase 5 — The KPIs that will decide the reaction
+
+List 3–5 company-specific numbers the market will read past the headline for — segment growth (data-center, cloud, subscribers), gross margin, unit economics (ARPU, take rate, deliveries), backlog / RPO, free cash flow, and the **guidance range** itself. For each: the consensus or prior value, the threshold that would count as good or bad, and where it will appear (press release vs. call). Then name **the one number** that has driven the stock in the last four prints. If a `thesis-tracker` file exists, its KPIs and thresholds take precedence — the print is that file's scheduled check.
+
+### Phase 6 — The scenario grid
+
+Fill every cell before the print; leave nothing to be decided in the after-hours session.
+
+| Scenario | Probability | Trigger | Expected reaction | Position rule (decided now) |
+|----------|-------------|---------|-------------------|-----------------------------|
+| **Beat & raise** | — | Revenue and EPS ≥ whisper, guide midpoint above consensus | + implied move or more; fades if the stock ran into the print | Hold; add only if a `position-ladder` rung fills *and* the ceiling is not reached; never chase the gap |
+| **Beat & lower** | — | Headline beat, guide midpoint below consensus | Flat to − implied move; the most common "beat and drop" | Trim into any early strength if the guide cut touches the thesis's mechanism; otherwise hold and re-run `thesis-tracker --update` |
+| **Miss** | — | Revenue or EPS below consensus, or guide cut with no offsetting KPI | − implied move or more; larger if positioning was long | Respect the pre-set stop or the `thesis-tracker` exit trigger; do not average down inside the first two sessions |
+| **In line** (state if material) | — | All three within ±1% of consensus, guide held | Drift, then trades on the call's tone | No action; run `earnings-call-analysis` on the transcript |
+
+Probabilities are the analyst's stated judgment, must sum to 100%, and must be justified by Phases 1–3 (a rising whisper lowers the "beat & raise" probability; a 15% drawdown into the print raises it). Where the user holds no position, the rules become entry rules: which scenario, at what price, would justify opening one — and which would not, regardless of price.
+
+### Phase 7 — What not to do
+
+State these every time; they are the errors this skill exists to prevent:
+
+- **Do not add size into the print on conviction.** The print is a coin with a known payout distribution (Phase 4) and an unknown outcome; conviction does not change the distribution. Size for the miss case.
+- **Do not hold undefined-risk short options through the event** (short straddles, strangles, naked puts). The implied move is an estimate; the realized move has exceeded it in a measurable share of quarters (Phase 2). `options-analysis` covers defined-risk alternatives.
+- **Do not react to the headline EPS before the guide and the KPI in Phase 5 are out.** Most post-print reversals happen between the press release and the end of the call.
+- **Do not treat a beat against a lowered bar as a beat.** Compare with the 90-day-ago consensus (Phase 1), not only with today's.
+- **Do not confuse the stock's reaction with the quality of the quarter.** A drop on a good quarter is positioning; a rise on a poor one is relief. Log which one it was — `thesis-tracker` needs that distinction.
+
+### Phase 8 — Earnings Setup Score (0–10)
+
+The headline number. It measures **asymmetry for a holder** — how much good news is already in the price versus how the stock has treated good news — not whether the print will be good.
+
+| Component | Weight | 10 looks like | 0 looks like |
+|-----------|--------|---------------|--------------|
+| Expectation bar (Phases 1, 3) | 35% | Consensus flat or falling into the print; price implies less growth than consensus; whisper gap ≈ 0 | Consensus marked up sharply; price needs a beat-and-raise; whisper well above consensus |
+| Beat history vs. reaction (Phase 2) | 25% | High beat rate *and* positive median move on beats (the stock rewards good news) | "Beat and drop" in ≥ 3 of 8 quarters |
+| Event pricing (Phase 4) | 20% | Implied move ≥ 1.2× realized median (downside is over-insured) | Implied move < 0.8× realized median (complacency) |
+| Positioning (Phase 3) | 10% | Stock down and de-rated into the print; short interest elevated; no crowding | Up > 15% in 30 days with estimates rising; crowded long |
+| Plan quality (Phases 5–6) | 10% | A specific KPI threshold and a rule in every cell | Generic KPIs; rules left to "see how it trades" |
+
+**A high score is not "buy before earnings."** It means the setup is asymmetric in a holder's favour: the bar is low, the stock rewards beats, the downside is insured by the options market. A low score means the opposite — good news is largely priced and the stock has a habit of falling on beats — which for a holder argues for *smaller* size into the print, not for a short. Read the direction of the business from `stock-eval`; read the odds of the *event* from here.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Output Format
+
+1. **Data & Sources** header (above), including the confirmed date/time and the consensus as-of date
+2. **Setup in three lines** — the bar (consensus vs. whisper vs. prior guide), what the price assumes, and how this stock has treated beats
+3. **Expectation stack** table (Phase 1)
+4. **8-quarter history** table and its three summary lines (Phase 2)
+5. **What is priced in** — the implied-growth sentence and the positioning read (Phase 3)
+6. **Implied vs. realized move** table and the position-size finding (Phase 4)
+7. **KPIs to watch**, with the one number that decides the reaction (Phase 5)
+8. **Scenario grid** with probabilities and position rules (Phase 6)
+9. **What not to do** (Phase 7)
+10. **Thesis Invalidation** and the **Investment Signal block** (below), with the Earnings Setup Score
+11. **Hand-off line** — *"After the print: paste the release and transcript into `earnings-call-analysis`; then run `thesis-tracker --update`."*
+
+---
+
+## Example
+
+```
+User: earnings-preview NVDA — reports Aug 27 after the close. I hold 40 shares at $118;
+      ladder ceiling is 60. Consensus and the last 8 quarters are pasted below. [pasted]
+
+The assistant opens with the Data & Sources header (IR page for the date, pasted
+consensus dated Aug 20, live straddle), then the setup in three lines: consensus has
+been revised up 6% in 90 days and the whisper sits ~3% above it, so a consensus-level
+beat will read as a miss; at the current price and a 3-year median forward multiple the
+stock needs ~35% forward EPS growth against a consensus of ~30%, so the price already
+assumes a beat-and-raise; the stock beat both lines in 8 of 8 quarters but fell the next
+day in 3 of them — every time the guide midpoint was below the whisper.
+
+The implied move is ±7.8% against a realized median of ±6.1% (ratio 1.28 — the event is
+over-insured). The KPI that decides the reaction is data-center revenue growth versus
+the ~40% whisper, then the next-quarter guide midpoint; gross margin is the tiebreaker.
+
+Scenario grid: beat & raise 45% (hold; no add — the ladder's next rung is $105, far
+below), beat & lower 35% (trim 10 shares into strength only if the guide cut names
+demand, not supply), miss 20% (the exit trigger is the thesis-tracker file's ≥40% DC
+growth KPI, not a price). What not to do: no adding into the print at 40 shares with a
+60 ceiling and an implied move that reaches $112 on the downside.
+
+Earnings Setup Score 4.6 / 10 — NEUTRAL: the bar is high and largely priced, but the
+stock has rewarded beats and the downside is over-insured. Signal block, then the
+hand-off to earnings-call-analysis and thesis-tracker --update.
+```
+
+---
+
+## Notes
+
+- **Confirm the date from the company, not a calendar aggregator.** Estimated dates are wrong often enough to matter — an implied move measured on the wrong expiry is meaningless.
+- **Consensus is a moving target.** Restate the as-of date next to every consensus figure; a number from three weeks ago is not the bar the stock will trade against.
+- **Whisper is labeled an estimate every time it appears.** A range with a rationale beats a false-precision point.
+- **The score is about the event, not the company.** A great business can have a poor setup (crowded, fully priced) and a mediocre one a good setup (washed out, low bar). Say which is which; do not blend them.
+- **Position rules must respect `position-ladder`'s ceiling and `thesis-tracker`'s triggers** when those exist. This skill never raises a ceiling or overrides an exit trigger.
+- **After the print, close the loop.** `earnings-call-analysis` on the transcript, then `thesis-tracker --update`, then record in its decision log which scenario occurred and whether the pre-set rule was followed. That log is what makes the next preview better.
+
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH (asymmetric setup for a holder) — the read breaks if:**
+- Consensus or the whisper is revised up by more than ~3% (EPS) in the final week — the bar has moved and Phases 1 and 3 must be redone
+- The stock rallies more than the implied move *before* the print (a pre-announcement, a peer's blowout, a sector re-rating) — the relief has been taken in advance
+- A peer reports first and reveals the KPI in Phase 5 is deteriorating industry-wide
+
+**If signal is BEARISH (good news fully priced, poor beat history) — the read breaks if:**
+- The stock sells off into the print by more than the implied move on no company news — the bar has been reset lower
+- Consensus is cut ahead of the print (the company or its peers guided down) — a beat against a lowered bar is not the same setup, and Phase 7's warning applies in reverse
+- Short interest rises sharply into the event — positioning has flipped and the reaction distribution with it
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] The print itself — this analysis expires at the release; run `earnings-call-analysis` on the transcript and `thesis-tracker --update` on the numbers
+- [ ] Consensus, the guide, or the confirmed date changes
+- [ ] The stock moves more than half the implied move before the event
+- [ ] A direct peer reports
+- [ ] The options-implied move changes by more than 20% relative (repricing of the event)
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+This skill measures **the asymmetry of the earnings setup for a holder, not the direction of the business or the likely outcome of the print**, so state the mapping explicitly: `Signal: BULLISH` means the bar is low, the stock rewards beats, and the downside is over-insured — the setup favours holding through the event at the current size; `NEUTRAL` means the setup is balanced or mixed — hold at current size, no adding; `BEARISH` means good news is largely priced and the stock has a habit of falling on beats — for a holder this argues for a smaller position into the print, **not for a short**. `Action: BUY` here means "the setup supports holding, and adding only via a pre-planned `position-ladder` rung"; `Action: SELL` means "reduce size into the event", never "short the print." Read the direction of the stock from `stock-eval` or `bear-case`, not from this block.
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Note:** The Score above is the Earnings Setup Score, mapped onto the standard scale for cross-skill comparability. It rates *how asymmetric the event is for a holder* — not how attractive the stock is and not the likelihood of a beat. Horizon is SHORT-TERM by construction: the analysis expires at the print. Confidence is capped at MEDIUM when the earnings date is unconfirmed, the whisper is not estimable, or fewer than six quarters of history exist.
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice. Earnings outcomes are unknowable in advance; probabilities and scenario rules are a pre-commitment framework under stated assumptions, not a forecast or a trade instruction.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/economics-analysis/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,349 @@
+---
+name: economics-analysis
+description: Analyze US economic indicators and their impact on markets
+---
+
+# US Economics Analysis
+
+## ⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis
+
+Before running any analysis, retrieve the latest release of every indicator you use:
+
+1. **Fetch current readings** — get the latest value and release date of each indicator (FRED, BLS, BEA, ISM, the Fed) through the host's own data path; delegate the request in a role-split host. Never assume a reading from training data; indicators are revised and re-released on a schedule.
+2. **Confirm key figures** — the policy rate, the 2s10s spread, the latest CPI/PCE, payrolls and unemployment, and PMI, each with its release date.
+3. **State your data source** — fill in the `Data & Sources` header (next section) so the origin, as-of date, retrieval path, and confidence of every figure are explicit at the top of the output.
+4. **Stop on missing data** — if a figure cannot be retrieved through the host's data path, name what is missing and stop; the analysis does not run on remembered values:
+
+> ⚠️ **Data unavailable.** <list the figures this analysis could not retrieve>. Those fields are reported as missing and are not estimated — retrieval is a precondition, not a nicety.
+
+Never substitute a remembered value for a retrieved one. Getting the print is the host data path's job — delegate it; asking the user is the last resort only where the host has no retrieval path at all.
+
+---
+
+## 📋 Data & Sources Header — Open Every Output With It
+
+The first thing in the output is this provenance block, filled in — never left as placeholders. It is the standard documented on the [Data & Accuracy](https://yennanliu.github.io/InvestSkill/data-and-accuracy.html) page and the first thing `result-validator` looks for:
+
+```
+Data & Sources
+  As of:      <date the figures represent, e.g. 2026-06-30>
+  Source:     <primary docs — SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q, company IR, FRED, exchange data …>
+  Retrieval:  <delegated retrieval | web/tool retrieval | pasted by user>
+  Confidence: <HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW>
+```
+
+- Memory is not a retrieval path. A figure that was neither retrieved nor supplied by the user is reported as missing, never estimated — and never written into this block as if it had been retrieved.
+- Mixed sources: list each with its own as-of date rather than blending them.
+- Data the user pasted is reported as `pasted by user`; do not upgrade its confidence beyond what the user's own source supports.
+
+---
+
+Analyze US economic conditions and their implications for investment decisions.
+
+## Key Economic Indicators
+
+1. **Growth Indicators**
+   - GDP growth rate and components
+   - Employment data (NFP, unemployment rate, jobless claims)
+   - Consumer spending and retail sales
+   - Manufacturing and services PMI
+
+2. **Inflation Metrics**
+   - CPI (Consumer Price Index)
+   - PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
+   - PPI (Producer Price Index)
+   - Wage growth trends
+
+3. **Monetary Policy**
+   - Federal Reserve policy stance
+   - Interest rates (Fed Funds rate, Treasury yields)
+   - Money supply and bank lending
+   - Fed meeting minutes and forward guidance
+
+4. **Market Sentiment**
+   - Consumer confidence indices
+   - Business sentiment surveys
+   - Credit spreads and risk indicators
+   - Market volatility (VIX)
+
+5. **Fiscal Policy**
+   - Government spending and stimulus programs
+   - Tax policy changes
+   - Budget deficit and debt levels
+
+## Analysis Framework
+
+- Identify current economic cycle phase
+- Assess policy implications for different sectors
+- Evaluate recession/expansion risks
+- Determine impact on equity, bond, and commodity markets
+- Provide sector rotation recommendations
+
+---
+
+## Yield Curve Analysis
+
+### Key Spreads to Monitor
+
+| Spread  | Definition                          | Current | 1-Year Avg | 10-Year Avg | Signal |
+|---------|-------------------------------------|---------|------------|-------------|--------|
+| 2s10s   | 10yr Treasury minus 2yr Treasury    |         |            |             |        |
+| 3M10Y   | 10yr Treasury minus 3-Month T-Bill  |         |            |             |        |
+| 5s30s   | 30yr Treasury minus 5yr Treasury    |         |            |             |        |
+
+**3M10Y is the historically strongest recession predictor** (NY Fed model is based on this spread).
+
+### Yield Curve Shapes
+
+| Shape           | Description                                     | Economic Implication                                  |
+|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|
+| Normal (Steep)  | Long-term rates well above short-term rates     | Healthy growth expectations, bank margins expanding   |
+| Flat            | Short and long-term rates near parity           | Late-cycle signal, growth slowing, Fed near peak      |
+| Inverted        | Short-term rates above long-term rates          | Recession warning — markets pricing in rate cuts ahead|
+| Bear Steepening | Both ends rise, long end rises faster           | Inflation concern, term premium expanding             |
+| Bull Steepening | Both ends fall, short end falls faster          | Cutting cycle underway, growth relief expected        |
+
+### Inversion Duration and Recession Lead Time
+
+Historical precedent for 3M10Y inversion:
+
+| Inversion Duration | Historical Recession Lead Time |
+|--------------------|-------------------------------|
+| < 3 months         | Unreliable signal             |
+| 3–6 months         | 12–18 months typically        |
+| 6–12 months        | 6–15 months typically         |
+| > 12 months        | High confidence; within 12 months |
+
+**Rule of thumb**: Yield curve uninversion (re-steepening after inversion) is often the more immediate warning — recession tends to arrive shortly after the curve re-steepens from inversion.
+
+### Fed Rate Cycle Positioning
+
+- **Hiking Cycle**: Fed raising rates — short end rises faster, curve flattens/inverts. Growth stocks under pressure.
+- **Pause**: Fed on hold — curve stabilizes. Markets watch for pivot signals.
+- **Cutting Cycle**: Fed reducing rates — short end falls faster, curve steepens. Risk-on environment, cyclicals and growth stocks benefit.
+
+### Real Yields (TIPS) Analysis
+
+- **Real Yield** = Nominal Treasury Yield − Breakeven Inflation Rate (derived from TIPS)
+- **Rising real yields**: Tighten financial conditions. Negative for long-duration assets (growth stocks, gold, long bonds).
+- **Falling real yields**: Easier financial conditions. Positive for growth stocks, gold, emerging markets, long bonds.
+- **10-Year Real Yield thresholds**: Below 0% is historically accommodative; above 2% is meaningfully restrictive.
+- **Breakeven inflation** (5-year, 5-year forward): Market's long-run inflation expectation. Persistently above 2.5% signals inflation concern.
+
+---
+
+## Credit Market Indicators
+
+### Investment Grade (IG) Credit Spreads (OAS — Option-Adjusted Spread)
+
+| Spread Level   | Condition  | Interpretation                                     |
+|----------------|------------|----------------------------------------------------|
+| < 100 bps      | Normal     | Risk appetite healthy, credit markets functioning  |
+| 100–150 bps    | Caution    | Stress emerging, watch for tightening conditions   |
+| > 150 bps      | Stress     | Credit markets seizing, risk-off, watch equities   |
+
+### High Yield (HY) Credit Spreads
+
+| Spread Level   | Condition  | Interpretation                                             |
+|----------------|------------|------------------------------------------------------------|
+| < 350 bps      | Normal     | Benign default environment, strong risk appetite           |
+| 350–500 bps    | Caution    | Elevated risk aversion, avoid lower-quality credits        |
+| > 500 bps      | Distress   | Recession/financial stress scenario, significant HY risk   |
+| > 800 bps      | Crisis     | Systemic credit event risk, similar to 2008/2020 episodes  |
+
+**Rule**: HY spreads lead equity markets by 2–4 weeks on average. Widening HY spreads while equities hold = warning signal.
+
+### TED Spread
+
+- **Definition**: 3-Month LIBOR (now SOFR) minus 3-Month T-Bill yield
+- Measures interbank lending stress and counterparty risk appetite in the banking system
+- **Normal**: < 50 bps
+- **Elevated stress**: 50–100 bps
+- **Crisis signal**: > 100 bps (peaked at ~450 bps during 2008 GFC)
+
+### MOVE Index (Bond Market Volatility)
+
+- Bond market equivalent of VIX — measures implied volatility in US Treasury options
+- **Normal**: 80–100
+- **Elevated**: 100–130 (policy uncertainty, high rate volatility)
+- **Crisis**: > 150 (1994, 2008, 2020, 2023 banking crisis)
+- High MOVE compresses equity valuations by increasing discount rates unpredictably.
+
+### Credit as a Leading Indicator
+
+- **IG/HY spread widening** before equity weakness is a leading warning (credit sees risk first)
+- **Spread compression** while equities lag = catch-up potential, constructive signal
+- **IG vs. HY divergence**: If HY widens but IG holds, idiosyncratic credit stress — watch lower-quality equities
+- **Leveraged loan market**: CLO issuance and leveraged loan spreads reflect private credit conditions
+
+---
+
+## Global Macro Comparison
+
+### Economic Cycle Positioning (US vs. EU vs. China)
+
+| Economy        | Current Phase         | GDP Growth | Inflation | Policy Stance | Equity Implication          |
+|----------------|-----------------------|------------|-----------|---------------|-----------------------------|
+| United States  |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+| Eurozone       |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+| China          |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+| Japan          |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+| UK             |                       |            |           |               |                             |
+
+Economic cycle phases: Early Expansion → Mid Expansion → Late Expansion → Contraction → Recovery
+
+### PMI Comparison Across Major Economies
+
+| Country/Region | PMI Index    | Last Reading | Trend       | Above/Below 50 |
+|----------------|--------------|--------------|-------------|----------------|
+| US             | ISM Mfg      |              |             |                |
+| US             | ISM Services |              |             |                |
+| Eurozone       | Markit Mfg   |              |             |                |
+| Eurozone       | Markit Svcs  |              |             |                |
+| China          | Caixin Mfg   |              |             |                |
+| China          | Official PMI |              |             |                |
+
+**Rule**: PMI above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Composite PMI below 48 for 2+ months is recessionary signal.
+
+### Central Bank Divergence Analysis
+
+| Central Bank | Current Rate | Last Move   | Next Expected Move | Cycle Phase |
+|--------------|-------------|-------------|-------------------|-------------|
+| Federal Reserve (Fed) |    |             |                   |             |
+| European Central Bank (ECB) | |           |                   |             |
+| Bank of Japan (BOJ) |       |             |                   |             |
+| Bank of England (BOE) |     |             |                   |             |
+| People's Bank of China (PBOC) | |         |                   |             |
+
+**Divergence signals**:
+- Fed tightening while ECB/BOJ easing → USD strengthens, EM currencies weaken
+- Synchronized easing → Global risk-on, EM outperforms, commodities bid
+- BOJ policy normalization → JPY strengthens, unwinds carry trades
+
+### Dollar (DXY) Strength and Sector Impact
+
+| DXY Direction | US Multinational Earnings | Commodities | Emerging Markets | Domestic US Small-Caps |
+|---------------|--------------------------|-------------|-----------------|------------------------|
+| Strengthening (rising DXY) | Headwind (FX translation) | Bearish | Bearish (USD-denominated debt stress) | Relative outperform |
+| Weakening (falling DXY) | Tailwind | Bullish | Bullish | Relative underperform |
+
+- **DXY above 105**: Meaningful headwind for S&P 500 multinationals (roughly 40% of S&P revenues are foreign)
+- **DXY below 95**: Significant tailwind, boosts international earnings in USD terms
+
+### Emerging Market Vulnerability Indicators
+
+- **EM FX pressure**: Current account deficits + elevated external USD debt = vulnerable to dollar strength
+- **EM Debt Stress Index**: Sovereign spread widening in EM bonds (EMBI+ spread)
+- **Capital outflow risks**: Rate differential between US and EM narrows during Fed cutting cycles — can reverse
+- **China contagion risk**: Property sector stress, credit impulse, and stimulus effectiveness
+- **Commodity-exporting EMs**: Benefit from commodity supercycles; inversely, hurt by USD strength
+
+---
+
+## Recession Probability Scoring
+
+### New York Fed Recession Model
+
+Based on the 3M10Y yield curve spread, the NY Fed publishes a monthly recession probability for the next 12 months.
+
+| Probability Range | Interpretation                                |
+|-------------------|-----------------------------------------------|
+| 0–10%             | Expansion — very low recession risk           |
+| 10–25%            | Low risk — monitor indicators                 |
+| 25–50%            | Elevated — caution warranted                  |
+| 50–75%            | High risk — recession likely within 12 months |
+| > 75%             | Near-certain — defensive positioning required |
+
+**Current NY Fed reading**: ____%
+
+### Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
+
+The LEI composite combines 10 leading indicators across financial markets, labor, manufacturing, and consumer expectations.
+
+- **Consecutive monthly declines (3+)**: Strong recession warning
+- **Year-over-year decline > 4%**: Historically aligned with recessions
+- **LEI component breakdown**: Manufacturing hours, building permits, consumer expectations, credit spread, yield curve, stock prices, initial jobless claims
+
+**Current LEI trend**: Rising / Flat / Declining
+
+### Sahm Rule
+
+**Sahm Rule Indicator** = Current 3-month average unemployment rate minus the minimum of the 3-month average unemployment rate over the prior 12 months.
+
+- **Threshold: ≥ 0.5 percentage points** = Real-time recession signal with high historical accuracy
+- Triggered in every US recession since 1970
+- Works in real-time without revision lag that affects other indicators
+
+**Current Sahm Indicator reading**: ____
+
+### Custom Composite Recession Probability
+
+Scoring model combining: Yield curve signal + LEI trend + Sahm Rule + Credit spreads + PMI momentum
+
+| Zone           | Score Range  | Interpretation                                        |
+|----------------|--------------|-------------------------------------------------------|
+| Expansion      | 0–25%        | Risk-on appropriate; cyclicals, growth outperform     |
+| Caution        | 25–50%       | Balanced positioning; reduce cyclical overweights     |
+| High Risk      | 50–75%       | Defensive rotation; increase quality, reduce leverage |
+| Near-Certain   | 75–100%      | Full defensive posture; cash, defensives, short vol   |
+
+**Historical recession episodes and leading indicators:**
+
+| Recession     | Yield Curve Inversion | LEI Decline | Sahm Trigger | S&P 500 Peak-to-Trough |
+|---------------|-----------------------|-------------|--------------|------------------------|
+| 2001 (Dot-com) | 2000                 | Yes         | Yes          | −49%                   |
+| 2008 (GFC)     | 2006–2007            | Yes         | Yes          | −57%                   |
+| 2020 (COVID)   | 2019                 | Yes         | Yes          | −34%                   |
+| 2022–2023      | 2022–2023            | Yes         | No (so far)  | −25% (bear market)     |
+
+---
+
+## Output
+
+Deliver concise economic assessment with:
+- Current economic state summary
+- Key risks and opportunities
+- Sector and asset class implications
+- Investment positioning recommendations
+
+## Standard Signal Output
+
+All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
+
+```
+## Thesis Invalidation
+
+After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
+
+**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- yield curve inverts >50bps AND leading indicators fall for 3 consecutive months
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
+- yield curve normalizes AND PMI recovers above 52 for 2+ months
+- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
+
+**Re-run this analysis when:**
+- [ ] Next earnings release
+- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
+- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
+- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
+
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
+║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
+║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
+║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
+║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
+Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
+Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
+
+**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.