@timmeck/trading-brain 1.0.0

package/dist/signals/wilson-score.d.ts

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+/**
+ * Wilson Score lower bound — statistically sound confidence interval for win rates.
+ * Penalizes small sample sizes (wide confidence intervals).
+ *
+ * @param wins - Number of wins
+ * @param total - Total number of trades
+ * @param z - Z-score (1.64=90%, 1.80, 1.96=95%, 2.33=99%)
+ * @returns Lower bound of confidence interval (0-1)
+ */
+export declare function wilsonScore(wins: number, total: number, z?: number): number;

package/dist/signals/wilson-score.js

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+/**
+ * Wilson Score lower bound — statistically sound confidence interval for win rates.
+ * Penalizes small sample sizes (wide confidence intervals).
+ *
+ * @param wins - Number of wins
+ * @param total - Total number of trades
+ * @param z - Z-score (1.64=90%, 1.80, 1.96=95%, 2.33=99%)
+ * @returns Lower bound of confidence interval (0-1)
+ */
+export function wilsonScore(wins, total, z = 1.96) {
+    if (total === 0)
+        return 0;
+    const p = wins / total;
+    const denominator = 1 + (z * z) / total;
+    const centre = p + (z * z) / (2 * total);
+    const spread = z * Math.sqrt((p * (1 - p) + (z * z) / (4 * total)) / total);
+    return Math.max(0, (centre - spread) / denominator);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=wilson-score.js.map

package/dist/signals/wilson-score.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/synapses/decay.d.ts

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+import type { SynapseRecord } from '../db/repositories/synapse.repository.js';
+/**
+ * Apply temporal decay to a synapse.
+ * Formula: new_weight = max(0.01, weight * 0.5^(age/halfLifeMs))
+ */
+export declare function decaySynapse(synapse: Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'>, halfLifeMs: number): boolean;

package/dist/synapses/decay.js

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+/**
+ * Apply temporal decay to a synapse.
+ * Formula: new_weight = max(0.01, weight * 0.5^(age/halfLifeMs))
+ */
+export function decaySynapse(synapse, halfLifeMs) {
+    const now = Date.now();
+    const lastActivated = new Date(synapse.last_activated).getTime();
+    const age = now - lastActivated;
+    if (age > halfLifeMs) {
+        const periods = age / halfLifeMs;
+        const oldWeight = synapse.weight;
+        synapse.weight = Math.max(0.01, synapse.weight * Math.pow(0.5, periods));
+        return synapse.weight !== oldWeight;
+    }
+    return false;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=decay.js.map

package/dist/synapses/decay.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/synapses/hebbian.d.ts

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+import type { SynapseRecord } from '../db/repositories/synapse.repository.js';
+/**
+ * Hebbian strengthen — "neurons that fire together wire together"
+ * Asymptotic approach to 1.0: weight += (1 - weight) * learningRate
+ */
+export declare function strengthen(synapse: Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'>, learningRate: number): void;
+/**
+ * Hebbian weaken — multiplicative decay on loss
+ * weight *= weakenPenalty (e.g. 0.7)
+ */
+export declare function weaken(synapse: Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'>, weakenPenalty: number): void;

package/dist/synapses/hebbian.js

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+/**
+ * Hebbian strengthen — "neurons that fire together wire together"
+ * Asymptotic approach to 1.0: weight += (1 - weight) * learningRate
+ */
+export function strengthen(synapse, learningRate) {
+    synapse.wins++;
+    synapse.activations++;
+    synapse.weight += (1.0 - synapse.weight) * learningRate;
+    synapse.last_activated = new Date().toISOString();
+}
+/**
+ * Hebbian weaken — multiplicative decay on loss
+ * weight *= weakenPenalty (e.g. 0.7)
+ */
+export function weaken(synapse, weakenPenalty) {
+    synapse.losses++;
+    synapse.activations++;
+    synapse.weight *= weakenPenalty;
+    synapse.last_activated = new Date().toISOString();
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=hebbian.js.map

package/dist/synapses/hebbian.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/synapses/synapse-manager.d.ts

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+import type { SynapseRepository, SynapseRecord } from '../db/repositories/synapse.repository.js';
+import type { CalibrationConfig } from '../types/config.types.js';
+export declare class SynapseManager {
+    private repo;
+    private cal;
+    private cache;
+    private logger;
+    constructor(repo: SynapseRepository, cal: CalibrationConfig);
+    private loadCache;
+    updateCalibration(cal: CalibrationConfig): void;
+    getOrCreate(fingerprint: string): Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'>;
+    get(id: string): Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'> | undefined;
+    getByFingerprint(fingerprint: string): Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'> | undefined;
+    recordWin(fingerprint: string, profitPct: number): Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'>;
+    recordLoss(fingerprint: string, profitPct: number): Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'>;
+    runDecay(): number;
+    getAll(): Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'>[];
+    count(): number;
+    getStrongest(limit?: number): Omit<SynapseRecord, 'created_at'>[];
+    getAvgWeight(): number;
+    clear(): void;
+}

package/dist/synapses/synapse-manager.js

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+import { strengthen, weaken } from './hebbian.js';
+import { decaySynapse } from './decay.js';
+import { getLogger } from '../utils/logger.js';
+export class SynapseManager {
+    repo;
+    cal;
+    cache = new Map();
+    logger = getLogger();
+    constructor(repo, cal) {
+        this.repo = repo;
+        this.cal = cal;
+        this.loadCache();
+    }
+    loadCache() {
+        const all = this.repo.getAll();
+        for (const syn of all) {
+            this.cache.set(syn.id, syn);
+        }
+        this.logger.info(`Synapse cache loaded: ${this.cache.size} synapses`);
+    }
+    updateCalibration(cal) {
+        this.cal = cal;
+    }
+    getOrCreate(fingerprint) {
+        const id = `syn_${fingerprint}`;
+        let synapse = this.cache.get(id);
+        if (!synapse) {
+            synapse = {
+                id,
+                fingerprint,
+                weight: 0.5,
+                wins: 0,
+                losses: 0,
+                activations: 0,
+                total_profit: 0,
+                last_activated: new Date().toISOString(),
+            };
+            this.cache.set(id, synapse);
+        }
+        return synapse;
+    }
+    get(id) {
+        return this.cache.get(id);
+    }
+    getByFingerprint(fingerprint) {
+        return this.cache.get(`syn_${fingerprint}`);
+    }
+    recordWin(fingerprint, profitPct) {
+        const synapse = this.getOrCreate(fingerprint);
+        synapse.total_profit += profitPct;
+        strengthen(synapse, this.cal.learningRate);
+        this.repo.upsert(synapse);
+        return synapse;
+    }
+    recordLoss(fingerprint, profitPct) {
+        const synapse = this.getOrCreate(fingerprint);
+        synapse.total_profit += profitPct;
+        weaken(synapse, this.cal.weakenPenalty);
+        this.repo.upsert(synapse);
+        return synapse;
+    }
+    runDecay() {
+        const halfLifeMs = this.cal.decayHalfLifeDays * 86400000;
+        let decayed = 0;
+        for (const synapse of this.cache.values()) {
+            if (decaySynapse(synapse, halfLifeMs)) {
+                this.repo.upsert(synapse);
+                decayed++;
+            }
+        }
+        if (decayed > 0) {
+            this.logger.info(`Decayed ${decayed} synapses`);
+        }
+        return decayed;
+    }
+    getAll() {
+        return Array.from(this.cache.values());
+    }
+    count() {
+        return this.cache.size;
+    }
+    getStrongest(limit = 20) {
+        return Array.from(this.cache.values())
+            .sort((a, b) => b.weight - a.weight)
+            .slice(0, limit);
+    }
+    getAvgWeight() {
+        if (this.cache.size === 0)
+            return 0;
+        let sum = 0;
+        for (const syn of this.cache.values())
+            sum += syn.weight;
+        return sum / this.cache.size;
+    }
+    clear() {
+        this.cache.clear();
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=synapse-manager.js.map

package/dist/synapses/synapse-manager.js.map

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package/dist/trading-core.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+export declare class TradingCore {
+    private db;
+    private ipcServer;
+    private apiServer;
+    private mcpHttpServer;
+    private learningEngine;
+    private researchEngine;
+    private config;
+    private configPath?;
+    private restarting;
+    start(configPath?: string): void;
+    private logCrash;
+    private cleanup;
+    restart(): void;
+    stop(): void;
+    private setupEventListeners;
+}

package/dist/trading-core.js

@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
+import path from 'node:path';
+import fs from 'node:fs';
+import { loadConfig } from './config.js';
+import { createLogger, getLogger } from './utils/logger.js';
+import { getEventBus } from './utils/events.js';
+import { createConnection } from './db/connection.js';
+import { runMigrations } from './db/migrations/index.js';
+// Repositories
+import { TradeRepository } from './db/repositories/trade.repository.js';
+import { SignalRepository } from './db/repositories/signal.repository.js';
+import { SynapseRepository } from './db/repositories/synapse.repository.js';
+import { GraphRepository } from './db/repositories/graph.repository.js';
+import { RuleRepository } from './db/repositories/rule.repository.js';
+import { ChainRepository } from './db/repositories/chain.repository.js';
+import { InsightRepository } from './db/repositories/insight.repository.js';
+import { CalibrationRepository } from './db/repositories/calibration.repository.js';
+// Graph
+import { WeightedGraph } from './graph/weighted-graph.js';
+// Synapses
+import { SynapseManager } from './synapses/synapse-manager.js';
+// Services
+import { TradeService } from './services/trade.service.js';
+import { SignalService } from './services/signal.service.js';
+import { StrategyService } from './services/strategy.service.js';
+import { SynapseService } from './services/synapse.service.js';
+import { AnalyticsService } from './services/analytics.service.js';
+import { InsightService } from './services/insight.service.js';
+// Engines
+import { LearningEngine } from './learning/learning-engine.js';
+import { ResearchEngine } from './research/research-engine.js';
+// IPC
+import { IpcRouter } from './ipc/router.js';
+import { IpcServer } from './ipc/server.js';
+// API & MCP HTTP
+import { ApiServer } from './api/server.js';
+import { McpHttpServer } from './mcp/http-server.js';
+export class TradingCore {
+    db = null;
+    ipcServer = null;
+    apiServer = null;
+    mcpHttpServer = null;
+    learningEngine = null;
+    researchEngine = null;
+    config = null;
+    configPath;
+    restarting = false;
+    start(configPath) {
+        this.configPath = configPath;
+        // 1. Config
+        this.config = loadConfig(configPath);
+        const config = this.config;
+        // 2. Ensure data dir
+        fs.mkdirSync(path.dirname(config.dbPath), { recursive: true });
+        // 3. Logger
+        createLogger({
+            level: config.log.level,
+            file: config.log.file,
+            maxSize: config.log.maxSize,
+            maxFiles: config.log.maxFiles,
+        });
+        const logger = getLogger();
+        // 4. Database
+        this.db = createConnection(config.dbPath);
+        runMigrations(this.db);
+        logger.info(`Database initialized: ${config.dbPath}`);
+        // 5. Repositories
+        const tradeRepo = new TradeRepository(this.db);
+        const signalRepo = new SignalRepository(this.db);
+        const synapseRepo = new SynapseRepository(this.db);
+        const graphRepo = new GraphRepository(this.db);
+        const ruleRepo = new RuleRepository(this.db);
+        const chainRepo = new ChainRepository(this.db);
+        const insightRepo = new InsightRepository(this.db);
+        const calibrationRepo = new CalibrationRepository(this.db);
+        // 6. Synapse Manager
+        const synapseManager = new SynapseManager(synapseRepo, config.calibration);
+        // 7. Weighted Graph (load from DB)
+        const graph = new WeightedGraph();
+        const graphNodes = graphRepo.getAllNodes();
+        for (const node of graphNodes) {
+            graph.addNode(node.id, node.type, node.label);
+        }
+        const graphEdges = graphRepo.getAllEdges();
+        for (const edge of graphEdges) {
+            graph.addEdge(edge.source, edge.target, edge.weight);
+        }
+        logger.info(`Graph loaded: ${graphNodes.length} nodes, ${graphEdges.length} edges`);
+        // 8. Calibration (load current or use defaults)
+        const cal = calibrationRepo.get() ?? config.calibration;
+        const tradeCount = () => tradeRepo.count();
+        // 9. Services
+        const services = {
+            trade: new TradeService(tradeRepo, signalRepo, chainRepo, synapseManager, graph, cal, config.learning),
+            signal: new SignalService(synapseManager, graph, cal, tradeCount),
+            strategy: new StrategyService(synapseManager, graph, cal, tradeCount),
+            synapse: new SynapseService(synapseManager, graph),
+            analytics: new AnalyticsService(tradeRepo, ruleRepo, chainRepo, insightRepo, synapseManager, graph),
+            insight: new InsightService(insightRepo),
+            ruleRepo,
+            chainRepo,
+            calRepo: calibrationRepo,
+        };
+        // 10. Learning Engine
+        this.learningEngine = new LearningEngine(config.learning, cal, tradeRepo, ruleRepo, chainRepo, calibrationRepo, synapseManager, graph);
+        this.learningEngine.start();
+        logger.info(`Learning engine started (interval: ${config.learning.intervalMs}ms)`);
+        // 11. Research Engine
+        this.researchEngine = new ResearchEngine(config.research, tradeRepo, insightRepo);
+        this.researchEngine.start();
+        logger.info(`Research engine started (interval: ${config.research.intervalMs}ms)`);
+        // Expose engines to IPC
+        services.learning = this.learningEngine;
+        services.research = this.researchEngine;
+        // 12. IPC Server
+        const router = new IpcRouter(services);
+        this.ipcServer = new IpcServer(router, config.ipc.pipeName);
+        this.ipcServer.start();
+        // 13. REST API Server
+        if (config.api.enabled) {
+            this.apiServer = new ApiServer({
+                port: config.api.port,
+                router,
+                apiKey: config.api.apiKey,
+            });
+            this.apiServer.start();
+            logger.info(`REST API enabled on port ${config.api.port}`);
+        }
+        // 14. MCP HTTP Server (SSE transport for Cursor, Windsurf, Cline, Continue)
+        if (config.mcpHttp.enabled) {
+            this.mcpHttpServer = new McpHttpServer(config.mcpHttp.port, router);
+            this.mcpHttpServer.start();
+            logger.info(`MCP HTTP (SSE) enabled on port ${config.mcpHttp.port}`);
+        }
+        // 15. Event listeners (synapse wiring)
+        this.setupEventListeners(synapseManager);
+        // 16. PID file
+        const pidPath = path.join(path.dirname(config.dbPath), 'trading-brain.pid');
+        fs.writeFileSync(pidPath, String(process.pid));
+        // 17. Graceful shutdown
+        process.on('SIGINT', () => this.stop());
+        process.on('SIGTERM', () => this.stop());
+        // 18. Crash recovery
+        process.on('uncaughtException', (err) => {
+            logger.error('Uncaught exception — restarting', { error: err.message, stack: err.stack });
+            this.logCrash('uncaughtException', err);
+            this.restart();
+        });
+        process.on('unhandledRejection', (reason) => {
+            logger.error('Unhandled rejection — restarting', { reason: String(reason) });
+            this.logCrash('unhandledRejection', reason instanceof Error ? reason : new Error(String(reason)));
+            this.restart();
+        });
+        logger.info(`Trading Brain daemon started (PID: ${process.pid})`);
+    }
+    logCrash(type, err) {
+        if (!this.config)
+            return;
+        const crashLog = path.join(path.dirname(this.config.dbPath), 'crashes.log');
+        const entry = `[${new Date().toISOString()}] ${type}: ${err.message}\n${err.stack ?? ''}\n\n`;
+        try {
+            fs.appendFileSync(crashLog, entry);
+        }
+        catch { /* best effort */ }
+    }
+    cleanup() {
+        this.researchEngine?.stop();
+        this.learningEngine?.stop();
+        this.mcpHttpServer?.stop();
+        this.apiServer?.stop();
+        this.ipcServer?.stop();
+        this.db?.close();
+        this.db = null;
+        this.ipcServer = null;
+        this.apiServer = null;
+        this.mcpHttpServer = null;
+        this.learningEngine = null;
+        this.researchEngine = null;
+    }
+    restart() {
+        if (this.restarting)
+            return;
+        this.restarting = true;
+        const logger = getLogger();
+        logger.info('Restarting Trading Brain daemon...');
+        try {
+            this.cleanup();
+        }
+        catch { /* best effort cleanup */ }
+        this.restarting = false;
+        this.start(this.configPath);
+    }
+    stop() {
+        const logger = getLogger();
+        logger.info('Shutting down...');
+        this.cleanup();
+        // Remove PID file
+        if (this.config) {
+            const pidPath = path.join(path.dirname(this.config.dbPath), 'trading-brain.pid');
+            try {
+                fs.unlinkSync(pidPath);
+            }
+            catch { /* ignore */ }
+        }
+        logger.info('Trading Brain daemon stopped');
+        process.exit(0);
+    }
+    setupEventListeners(_synapseManager) {
+        const bus = getEventBus();
+        // Trade recorded → log
+        bus.on('trade:recorded', ({ tradeId, fingerprint, win }) => {
+            getLogger().info(`Trade #${tradeId} recorded: ${fingerprint} (${win ? 'WIN' : 'LOSS'})`);
+        });
+        // Synapse updated → log at debug level
+        bus.on('synapse:updated', ({ synapseId }) => {
+            getLogger().debug(`Synapse updated: ${synapseId}`);
+        });
+        // Rule learned → log
+        bus.on('rule:learned', ({ ruleId, pattern }) => {
+            getLogger().info(`New rule #${ruleId} learned: ${pattern}`);
+        });
+        // Chain detected → log
+        bus.on('chain:detected', ({ pair, type, length }) => {
+            getLogger().info(`Chain: ${pair} ${type} streak (${length})`);
+        });
+        // Insight created → log
+        bus.on('insight:created', ({ insightId, type }) => {
+            getLogger().info(`New insight #${insightId} (${type})`);
+        });
+        // Calibration updated → log
+        bus.on('calibration:updated', ({ outcomeCount }) => {
+            getLogger().info(`Calibration updated (${outcomeCount} outcomes)`);
+        });
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=trading-core.js.map

package/dist/trading-core.js.map

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package/dist/types/config.types.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+export interface TradingBrainConfig {
+    dataDir: string;
+    dbPath: string;
+    ipc: {
+        pipeName: string;
+        timeout: number;
+    };
+    api: {
+        port: number;
+        enabled: boolean;
+        apiKey?: string;
+    };
+    mcpHttp: {
+        port: number;
+        enabled: boolean;
+    };
+    calibration: CalibrationConfig;
+    learning: LearningConfig;
+    research: ResearchConfig;
+    log: {
+        level: string;
+        file: string;
+        maxSize: number;
+        maxFiles: number;
+    };
+}
+export interface CalibrationConfig {
+    learningRate: number;
+    weakenPenalty: number;
+    decayHalfLifeDays: number;
+    patternExtractionInterval: number;
+    patternMinSamples: number;
+    patternWilsonThreshold: number;
+    wilsonZ: number;
+    spreadingActivationDecay: number;
+    spreadingActivationThreshold: number;
+    minActivationsForWeight: number;
+    minOutcomesForWeights: number;
+}
+export interface LearningConfig {
+    intervalMs: number;
+    fingerprintSimilarityThreshold: number;
+    chainMinLength: number;
+    maxChains: number;
+}
+export interface ResearchConfig {
+    intervalMs: number;
+    initialDelayMs: number;
+    trendWindowDays: number;
+    minTrades: number;
+    maxInsights: number;
+}

package/dist/types/config.types.js

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=config.types.js.map

package/dist/types/config.types.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"config.types.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/types/config.types.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/types/ipc.types.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+export interface IpcMessage {
+    id: string;
+    type: 'request' | 'response' | 'notification';
+    method?: string;
+    params?: unknown;
+    result?: unknown;
+    error?: {
+        code: number;
+        message: string;
+    };
+}

package/dist/types/ipc.types.js

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=ipc.types.js.map

package/dist/types/ipc.types.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"ipc.types.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/types/ipc.types.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/utils/events.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+import { EventEmitter } from 'node:events';
+export interface TradingBrainEvents {
+    'trade:recorded': {
+        tradeId: number;
+        fingerprint: string;
+        win: boolean;
+    };
+    'synapse:updated': {
+        synapseId: string;
+        weight: number;
+    };
+    'rule:learned': {
+        ruleId: number;
+        pattern: string;
+        confidence: number;
+    };
+    'chain:detected': {
+        pair: string;
+        type: string;
+        length: number;
+    };
+    'insight:created': {
+        insightId: number;
+        type: string;
+    };
+    'calibration:updated': {
+        outcomeCount: number;
+        learningRate: number;
+    };
+    'decay:applied': {
+        synapseCount: number;
+        edgeCount: number;
+    };
+    'patterns:extracted': {
+        ruleCount: number;
+    };
+    'research:completed': {
+        insightCount: number;
+    };
+}
+export type TradingBrainEventName = keyof TradingBrainEvents;
+export declare class TypedEventBus extends EventEmitter {
+    emit<K extends TradingBrainEventName>(event: K, data: TradingBrainEvents[K]): boolean;
+    on<K extends TradingBrainEventName>(event: K, listener: (data: TradingBrainEvents[K]) => void): this;
+    once<K extends TradingBrainEventName>(event: K, listener: (data: TradingBrainEvents[K]) => void): this;
+    off<K extends TradingBrainEventName>(event: K, listener: (data: TradingBrainEvents[K]) => void): this;
+}
+export declare function getEventBus(): TypedEventBus;

package/dist/utils/events.js

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+import { EventEmitter } from 'node:events';
+export class TypedEventBus extends EventEmitter {
+    emit(event, data) {
+        return super.emit(event, data);
+    }
+    on(event, listener) {
+        return super.on(event, listener);
+    }
+    once(event, listener) {
+        return super.once(event, listener);
+    }
+    off(event, listener) {
+        return super.off(event, listener);
+    }
+}
+let busInstance = null;
+export function getEventBus() {
+    if (!busInstance) {
+        busInstance = new TypedEventBus();
+    }
+    return busInstance;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=events.js.map