@timmeck/trading-brain 1.0.0

package/README.md

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+# Trading Brain
+
+**Adaptive Trading Intelligence & Signal Learning System for Claude Code**
+
+Trading Brain is an MCP server that gives Claude Code a persistent trading memory. It learns from every trade outcome — strengthening connections between signals, strategies, and results through a Hebbian synapse network. Over time, it develops confidence in signal combinations, adapts calibration parameters, and surfaces research insights about your trading patterns.
+
+## Why Trading Brain?
+
+Without Trading Brain, every trading decision starts from zero. With Trading Brain:
+
+- **Signals are weighted by experience** — Brain tracks which signal combinations actually lead to winning trades, not just theory
+- **Confidence is statistical** — Wilson Score intervals provide conservative confidence bounds, not just raw win rates
+- **DCA multipliers adapt** — Brain-recommended position sizes adjust based on regime awareness and historical performance
+- **Grid parameters tune themselves** — Volatility-aware grid spacing multipliers based on actual outcomes
+- **Patterns emerge automatically** — The learning engine extracts rules from signal fingerprint groupings
+- **Streaks are detected** — Chain detection identifies winning and losing streaks per pair
+- **Knowledge compounds** — Every trade outcome makes Brain smarter through Hebbian learning
+- **Research runs continuously** — Trend analysis, gap detection, synergy mapping, and regime shift detection
+
+## Features
+
+### Core Intelligence
+- **Trade Outcome Memory** — Record and query trade outcomes with full signal context
+- **Signal Fingerprinting** — RSI, MACD, Trend, and Volatility classification into discrete categories
+- **Wilson Score Confidence** — Statistical confidence intervals with adaptive z-scores based on data volume
+- **Hebbian Synapse Network** — Weighted graph connecting signals, combos, outcomes, pairs, and regimes
+- **Spreading Activation** — Explore related knowledge by activating nodes in the synapse network
+- **Adaptive Calibration** — Learning rate, Wilson z-score, and decay half-life auto-calibrate across 4 stages
+
+### Learning Engine
+- **Pattern Extraction** — Fingerprint grouping with similarity threshold → rules when confidence exceeds gate
+- **Chain Detection** — Identifies 3+ consecutive same-result trades on the same pair
+- **Temporal Decay** — Exponential half-life decay keeps recent trades more relevant
+- **Recalibration** — Auto-recalibrates every 25 trades based on data volume and synapse density
+
+### Research Engine
+- **Trend Detection** — Identifies pairs with consistently improving or declining win rates
+- **Gap Detection** — Finds signal combinations with few data points that need more testing
+- **Synergy Detection** — Discovers which signal pairs frequently co-occur in winning trades
+- **Performance Analysis** — Ranks pairs and strategies by statistical confidence
+- **Regime Shift Detection** — Alerts when a pair's recent performance deviates from its baseline
+
+### Strategy Recommendations
+- **DCA Multiplier** — Brain-recommended multiplier (0.3x–2.5x) based on regime and RSI context
+- **Grid Parameters** — Volatility-aware grid spacing with historical performance adjustment
+
+### Universal Access
+- **MCP Server** — Stdio transport for Claude Code integration
+- **MCP HTTP/SSE** — Standard MCP protocol over HTTP for Cursor, Windsurf, Cline, Continue
+- **REST API** — Full HTTP API on port 7779 with RPC endpoint
+
+## Quick Start
+
+### Installation
+
+```bash
+npm install -g @timmeck/trading-brain
+```
+
+Or from source:
+
+```bash
+git clone https://github.com/timmeck/trading-brain.git
+cd trading-brain
+npm install
+npm run build
+```
+
+### Setup with Claude Code
+
+Add Trading Brain's MCP server to your Claude Code configuration (`~/.claude/settings.json`):
+
+```json
+{
+  "mcpServers": {
+    "trading-brain": {
+      "command": "trading",
+      "args": ["mcp-server"]
+    }
+  }
+}
+```
+
+### Setup with Cursor / Windsurf / Cline / Continue
+
+Trading Brain supports MCP over HTTP with SSE transport:
+
+```json
+{
+  "trading-brain": {
+    "url": "http://localhost:7780/sse"
+  }
+}
+```
+
+Make sure the daemon is running (`trading start`).
+
+### Start the Daemon
+
+```bash
+trading start
+trading status
+trading doctor    # verify everything is configured correctly
+```
+
+The daemon runs background tasks: learning cycles, research analysis, synapse decay, and recalibration.
+
+## Architecture
+
+```
++------------------+     +------------------+     +------------------+
+|   Claude Code    |     |  Cursor/Windsurf |     |  Browser/CI/CD   |
+|   (MCP stdio)    |     |  (MCP HTTP/SSE)  |     |  (REST API)      |
++--------+---------+     +--------+---------+     +--------+---------+
+         |                        |                        |
+         v                        v                        v
++--------+---------+     +--------+---------+     +--------+---------+
+|   MCP Server     |     |   MCP HTTP/SSE   |     |    REST API      |
+|   (stdio)        |     |   (port 7780)    |     |   (port 7779)    |
++--------+---------+     +--------+---------+     +--------+---------+
+         |                        |                        |
+         +----------+-------------+------------------------+
+                    |
+                    v
+         +----------+------------+
+         |     TradingCore       |
+         |  (Daemon / Services)  |
+         +----------+------------+
+                    |
+    +-------+-------+--------+--------+
+    |       |       |        |        |
+    v       v       v        v        v
++---+--+ +--+---+ +-+-----+ +-+----+ +-+--------+
+|Trade | |Signal| |Synapse | |Strat | |Research  |
+|Memory| |Brain | |Network | |Brain | |Engine    |
++---+--+ +--+---+ +-+-----+ +-+----+ +-+--------+
+    |       |       |        |        |
+    v       v       v        v        v
++---+--+ +--+---+ +-+-----+ +-+----+ +-+--------+
+|Learn | |Wilson| |Hebbian | |DCA/  | |Trend/Gap |
+|Engine| |Score | |Learn   | |Grid  | |Synergy   |
++------+ +------+ +-------+ +------+ +----------+
+                    |
+                    v
+         +----------+-----------+
+         |     SQLite (DB)      |
+         |  better-sqlite3      |
+         +----------------------+
+```
+
+### Core Components
+
+| Component | Purpose |
+|-----------|---------|
+| **Trade Memory** | Stores trade outcomes with signal fingerprints, pairs, bot types, and results |
+| **Signal Brain** | Computes weighted signal strengths via direct synapses + spreading activation + similar combo boost |
+| **Synapse Network** | Weighted graph connecting signals, combos, outcomes, pairs. Hebbian: "signals that win together wire together" |
+| **Strategy Brain** | DCA multiplier and grid parameter recommendations based on regime and volatility awareness |
+| **Learning Engine** | Pattern extraction, chain detection, temporal decay, adaptive recalibration |
+| **Research Engine** | Automated analysis: trends, gaps, synergies, performance rankings, regime shifts |
+| **Calibrator** | 4-stage adaptive calibration: learningRate, wilsonZ, decayHalfLife based on trade count |
+| **REST API** | HTTP API exposing all Trading Brain methods as RPC endpoints |
+| **MCP HTTP Server** | SSE transport enabling non-Claude MCP clients |
+
+## CLI Commands
+
+```
+trading start              Start the Trading Brain daemon
+trading stop               Stop the daemon
+trading status             Show stats (trades, rules, chains, insights, synapses)
+trading doctor             Health check: daemon, DB, IPC, ports
+trading query <text>       Search trades by fingerprint, pair, or bot type
+trading insights           Show research insights with severity
+trading rules              Show learned rules with confidence and win rate
+trading network            Explore the synapse network
+trading config             View and manage configuration
+trading export             Export all data as JSON
+trading import <file>      Import trades from JSON array
+```
+
+## MCP Tools
+
+These tools are available to Claude Code (and other MCP clients) when Trading Brain is configured:
+
+| Tool | Description |
+|------|-------------|
+| `trading_record_outcome` | Record a trade outcome (main entry point for learning loop) |
+| `trading_signal_weights` | Get Brain-weighted signal strengths for a signal combination |
+| `trading_signal_confidence` | Wilson Score confidence interval for a signal pattern |
+| `trading_dca_multiplier` | Brain-recommended DCA position size multiplier |
+| `trading_grid_params` | Brain-recommended grid trading parameters |
+| `trading_explore` | Spreading Activation network exploration from a query node |
+| `trading_connections` | Find the shortest path between two nodes in the graph |
+| `trading_rules` | Get all learned trading rules |
+| `trading_insights` | Get research insights (trends, gaps, synergies) |
+| `trading_chains` | Get detected winning/losing streaks |
+| `trading_query` | Search trades by fingerprint, pair, or bot type |
+| `trading_status` | Current Trading Brain stats |
+| `trading_calibration` | Current adaptive calibration parameters |
+| `trading_learn` | Manually trigger a learning cycle |
+| `trading_reset` | Reset all data (use with caution) |
+
+## REST API
+
+Trading Brain includes a REST API on port 7779 (default).
+
+### Generic RPC Endpoint
+
+```bash
+# Call any Trading Brain method
+curl -X POST http://localhost:7779/api/v1/rpc \
+  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
+  -d '{"method": "analytics.summary", "params": {}}'
+
+# Batch multiple calls
+curl -X POST http://localhost:7779/api/v1/rpc \
+  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
+  -d '[
+    {"id": 1, "method": "analytics.summary", "params": {}},
+    {"id": 2, "method": "synapse.stats", "params": {}}
+  ]'
+```
+
+### Authentication
+
+Set an API key via environment variable:
+
+```bash
+TRADING_BRAIN_API_KEY=your-secret-key trading start
+```
+
+Then include it in requests:
+
+```bash
+curl -H "X-API-Key: your-secret-key" http://localhost:7779/api/v1/rpc \
+  -d '{"method": "analytics.summary", "params": {}}'
+```
+
+## Configuration
+
+Trading Brain is configured via `config.json` in the data directory or environment variables:
+
+| Env Variable | Default | Description |
+|---|---|---|
+| `TRADING_BRAIN_DATA_DIR` | `~/.trading-brain` | Data directory |
+| `TRADING_BRAIN_LOG_LEVEL` | `info` | Log level |
+| `TRADING_BRAIN_API_PORT` | `7779` | REST API port |
+| `TRADING_BRAIN_API_KEY` | — | API authentication key |
+| `TRADING_BRAIN_MCP_HTTP_PORT` | `7780` | MCP HTTP/SSE port |
+| `TRADING_BRAIN_API_ENABLED` | `true` | Enable REST API |
+| `TRADING_BRAIN_MCP_HTTP_ENABLED` | `true` | Enable MCP HTTP |
+
+## How It Learns
+
+1. **Trade Outcome Recorded** — A bot completes a trade and reports the result via `trading_record_outcome`
+2. **Signal Fingerprinted** — RSI, MACD, Trend, and Volatility are classified into discrete categories
+3. **Synapses Form** — Hebbian connections link signal → combo → outcome → pair. Winners strengthen, losers weaken
+4. **Graph Updated** — Nodes and edges are created/strengthened in the weighted graph
+5. **Chain Checked** — If 3+ consecutive same-result trades on a pair, a chain is recorded
+6. **Confidence Computed** — Wilson Score provides statistical lower bound on true win rate
+7. **Patterns Extracted** — Similar fingerprints are grouped; rules generated when confidence exceeds threshold
+8. **Calibration Adapts** — Every 25 trades, learning rate, Wilson z, and decay half-life recalibrate
+9. **Research Runs** — Background analysis finds trends, gaps, synergies, and regime shifts
+10. **Next Trade** — Signal weights, DCA multiplier, and grid params incorporate all learned knowledge
+
+## Algorithms
+
+### Wilson Score Confidence
+Conservative statistical confidence interval for win rates. Adaptive z-score: starts at 1.0 (few trades) → reaches 1.96 (500+ trades).
+
+### Hebbian Learning
+"Signals that win together wire together." Asymmetric updates:
+- **Strengthen** (win): `weight += (1 - weight) * learningRate` (asymptotic approach to 1.0)
+- **Weaken** (loss): `weight *= penalty` (multiplicative decay)
+
+### Spreading Activation
+BFS-based energy propagation through the weighted graph. Decay factor 0.6, threshold 0.05, max depth 4. Used for signal weight bonuses and network exploration.
+
+### Adaptive Calibration
+4 stages based on trade count:
+| Stage | Trades | Learning Rate | Wilson Z | Decay Half-Life |
+|-------|--------|--------------|----------|-----------------|
+| 1 | <20 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 60 days |
+| 2 | 20–100 | 0.15 | 1.44 | 45 days |
+| 3 | 100–500 | 0.08 | 1.65 | 30 days |
+| 4 | >500 | 0.05 | 1.96 | 21 days |
+
+### Signal Fingerprinting
+Each signal dimension is classified:
+- **RSI**: oversold (<30), neutral (30–70), overbought (>70)
+- **MACD**: strong_bull (>0.5), bull (>0), bear (<0), strong_bear (<-0.5)
+- **Trend**: strong_up (>0.5), up (>0), down (<0), strong_down (<-0.5)
+- **Volatility**: low (<0.3), medium (0.3–0.7), high (>0.7)
+
+## Tech Stack
+
+- **TypeScript** — Full type safety, ES2022 target, ESM modules
+- **better-sqlite3** — Fast, embedded, synchronous database with WAL mode
+- **MCP SDK** — Model Context Protocol integration (stdio + HTTP/SSE transports)
+- **Commander** — CLI framework
+- **Chalk** — Colored terminal output
+- **Winston** — Structured logging
+
+## License
+
+[MIT](LICENSE)

package/dist/api/server.d.ts

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+import type { IpcRouter } from '../ipc/router.js';
+export interface ApiServerOptions {
+    port: number;
+    router: IpcRouter;
+    apiKey?: string;
+}
+export declare class ApiServer {
+    private options;
+    private server;
+    private logger;
+    private sseClients;
+    private statsTimer;
+    constructor(options: ApiServerOptions);
+    start(): void;
+    stop(): void;
+    private handleRequest;
+    private json;
+    private readBody;
+    private setupSSE;
+    private broadcastSSE;
+}

package/dist/api/server.js

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+import http from 'node:http';
+import { getLogger } from '../utils/logger.js';
+import { getEventBus } from '../utils/events.js';
+export class ApiServer {
+    options;
+    server = null;
+    logger = getLogger();
+    sseClients = new Set();
+    statsTimer = null;
+    constructor(options) {
+        this.options = options;
+    }
+    start() {
+        const { port, apiKey } = this.options;
+        this.server = http.createServer((req, res) => {
+            res.setHeader('Access-Control-Allow-Origin', '*');
+            res.setHeader('Access-Control-Allow-Methods', 'GET, POST, PUT, DELETE, OPTIONS');
+            res.setHeader('Access-Control-Allow-Headers', 'Content-Type, Authorization, X-API-Key');
+            if (req.method === 'OPTIONS') {
+                res.writeHead(204);
+                res.end();
+                return;
+            }
+            if (apiKey) {
+                const provided = req.headers['x-api-key'] ?? req.headers.authorization?.replace('Bearer ', '');
+                if (provided !== apiKey) {
+                    this.json(res, 401, { error: 'Unauthorized' });
+                    return;
+                }
+            }
+            this.handleRequest(req, res).catch((err) => {
+                this.logger.error('API error:', err);
+                this.json(res, 500, { error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err) });
+            });
+        });
+        this.server.listen(port, () => {
+            this.logger.info(`REST API server started on http://localhost:${port}`);
+        });
+        this.setupSSE();
+    }
+    stop() {
+        if (this.statsTimer) {
+            clearInterval(this.statsTimer);
+            this.statsTimer = null;
+        }
+        for (const client of this.sseClients) {
+            try {
+                client.end();
+            }
+            catch { /* ignore */ }
+        }
+        this.sseClients.clear();
+        this.server?.close();
+        this.server = null;
+        this.logger.info('REST API server stopped');
+    }
+    async handleRequest(req, res) {
+        const url = new URL(req.url ?? '/', 'http://localhost');
+        const pathname = url.pathname;
+        const method = req.method ?? 'GET';
+        if (pathname === '/api/v1/health') {
+            this.json(res, 200, { status: 'ok', timestamp: new Date().toISOString() });
+            return;
+        }
+        if (pathname === '/api/v1/events' && method === 'GET') {
+            res.writeHead(200, { 'Content-Type': 'text/event-stream', 'Cache-Control': 'no-cache', 'Connection': 'keep-alive' });
+            res.write('data: {"type":"connected"}\n\n');
+            this.sseClients.add(res);
+            req.on('close', () => this.sseClients.delete(res));
+            return;
+        }
+        if (pathname === '/api/v1/methods' && method === 'GET') {
+            const methods = this.options.router.listMethods();
+            this.json(res, 200, { methods, rpcEndpoint: '/api/v1/rpc' });
+            return;
+        }
+        if (pathname === '/api/v1/rpc' && method === 'POST') {
+            const body = await this.readBody(req);
+            if (!body) {
+                this.json(res, 400, { error: 'Empty request body' });
+                return;
+            }
+            const parsed = JSON.parse(body);
+            if (Array.isArray(parsed)) {
+                const results = parsed.map((call) => {
+                    try {
+                        const result = this.options.router.handle(call.method, call.params ?? {});
+                        return { id: call.id, result };
+                    }
+                    catch (err) {
+                        return { id: call.id, error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err) };
+                    }
+                });
+                this.json(res, 200, results);
+                return;
+            }
+            if (!parsed.method) {
+                this.json(res, 400, { error: 'Missing "method" field' });
+                return;
+            }
+            try {
+                const result = this.options.router.handle(parsed.method, parsed.params ?? {});
+                this.json(res, 200, { result });
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                this.json(res, 400, { error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err) });
+            }
+            return;
+        }
+        this.json(res, 404, { error: `No route for ${method} ${pathname}` });
+    }
+    json(res, status, data) {
+        res.writeHead(status, { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' });
+        res.end(JSON.stringify(data));
+    }
+    readBody(req) {
+        return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
+            const chunks = [];
+            req.on('data', (chunk) => chunks.push(chunk));
+            req.on('end', () => resolve(Buffer.concat(chunks).toString('utf8')));
+            req.on('error', reject);
+        });
+    }
+    setupSSE() {
+        const bus = getEventBus();
+        const eventNames = [
+            'trade:recorded', 'synapse:updated', 'rule:learned',
+            'chain:detected', 'insight:created', 'calibration:updated',
+        ];
+        for (const eventName of eventNames) {
+            bus.on(eventName, (data) => {
+                this.broadcastSSE({ type: 'event', event: eventName, data });
+            });
+        }
+        this.statsTimer = setInterval(() => {
+            if (this.sseClients.size > 0) {
+                try {
+                    const summary = this.options.router.handle('analytics.summary', {});
+                    this.broadcastSSE({ type: 'stats_update', stats: summary });
+                }
+                catch { /* ignore */ }
+            }
+        }, 30_000);
+    }
+    broadcastSSE(data) {
+        const msg = `data: ${JSON.stringify(data)}\n\n`;
+        for (const client of this.sseClients) {
+            try {
+                client.write(msg);
+            }
+            catch {
+                this.sseClients.delete(client);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=server.js.map

package/dist/api/server.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/cli/colors.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+export declare const c: {
+    blue: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    purple: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    cyan: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    green: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    red: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    orange: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    dim: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    dimmer: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    label: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    value: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    heading: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    success: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    error: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    warn: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+    info: import("chalk").ChalkInstance;
+};
+export declare const icons: {
+    brain: string;
+    chart: string;
+    check: string;
+    cross: string;
+    arrow: string;
+    dot: string;
+    bar: string;
+    barLight: string;
+    dash: string;
+    pipe: string;
+    star: string;
+    bolt: string;
+    search: string;
+    gear: string;
+    synapse: string;
+    insight: string;
+    warn: string;
+    error: string;
+    ok: string;
+    clock: string;
+    trade: string;
+    rule: string;
+    chain: string;
+};
+export declare function header(title: string, icon?: string): string;
+export declare function keyValue(key: string, value: string | number, indent?: number): string;
+export declare function divider(width?: number): string;
+export declare function table(rows: string[][], colWidths?: number[]): string;

package/dist/cli/colors.js

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+import chalk from 'chalk';
+export const c = {
+    blue: chalk.hex('#5b9cff'),
+    purple: chalk.hex('#b47aff'),
+    cyan: chalk.hex('#47e5ff'),
+    green: chalk.hex('#3dffa0'),
+    red: chalk.hex('#ff5577'),
+    orange: chalk.hex('#ffb347'),
+    dim: chalk.hex('#8b8fb0'),
+    dimmer: chalk.hex('#4a4d6e'),
+    label: chalk.hex('#8b8fb0'),
+    value: chalk.white.bold,
+    heading: chalk.hex('#5b9cff').bold,
+    success: chalk.hex('#3dffa0').bold,
+    error: chalk.hex('#ff5577').bold,
+    warn: chalk.hex('#ffb347').bold,
+    info: chalk.hex('#47e5ff'),
+};
+export const icons = {
+    brain: '🧠',
+    chart: '📊',
+    check: '✓',
+    cross: '✗',
+    arrow: '→',
+    dot: '●',
+    bar: '█',
+    barLight: '░',
+    dash: '─',
+    pipe: '│',
+    star: '★',
+    bolt: '⚡',
+    search: '🔍',
+    gear: '⚙',
+    synapse: '🔗',
+    insight: '💡',
+    warn: '⚠',
+    error: '❌',
+    ok: '✅',
+    clock: '⏱',
+    trade: '💹',
+    rule: '📋',
+    chain: '⛓',
+};
+export function header(title, icon) {
+    const prefix = icon ? `${icon}  ` : '';
+    const line = c.dimmer(icons.dash.repeat(40));
+    return `\n${line}\n${prefix}${c.heading(title)}\n${line}`;
+}
+export function keyValue(key, value, indent = 2) {
+    const pad = ' '.repeat(indent);
+    return `${pad}${c.label(key + ':')} ${c.value(String(value))}`;
+}
+export function divider(width = 40) {
+    return c.dimmer(icons.dash.repeat(width));
+}
+function stripAnsi(str) {
+    // eslint-disable-next-line no-control-regex
+    return str.replace(/\x1b\[[0-9;]*m/g, '');
+}
+export function table(rows, colWidths) {
+    if (rows.length === 0)
+        return '';
+    const widths = colWidths ?? rows[0].map((_, i) => Math.max(...rows.map(r => stripAnsi(r[i] ?? '').length)));
+    return rows.map(row => row.map((cell, i) => {
+        const stripped = stripAnsi(cell);
+        const pad = Math.max(0, (widths[i] ?? stripped.length) - stripped.length);
+        return cell + ' '.repeat(pad);
+    }).join('  ')).join('\n');
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=colors.js.map

package/dist/cli/colors.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/cli/commands/config.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+import { Command } from 'commander';
+export declare function configCommand(): Command;