@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.128.2 → 0.130.0

package/dist/chunk-VLOATJQ2.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/summary-report.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Reporting helpers — production summaries and paper-quality figures — sit alongside `reporter.ts` rather\n * than replacing it.\n *\n * Three artefacts:\n *\n *   - `summaryTable`           Markdown table of per-candidate means,\n *                            95% bootstrap CIs, BH-adjusted Wilcoxon\n *                            p-values, and Cohen's d versus a\n *                            comparator candidate.\n *   - `paretoChart`         Abstract spec for a cost vs quality\n *                            scatter, with gate decisions overlaid.\n *                            Returns numbers + labels — caller\n *                            chooses the plotting library.\n *   - `gainHistogram`\n *                            Per-item paired holdout deltas as a\n *                            histogram spec (bins + counts + median +\n *                            CI). Same \"data, not images\" contract.\n *\n * The figure types are PlotSpecs — JSON-friendly, library-agnostic.\n * They aren't React components and they aren't PNGs; they are\n * what you'd hand to vega-lite, plotly, matplotlib, or your own\n * Canvas renderer to draw the actual figure.\n */\n\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from './paired-arms'\nimport type { FailureClusterReport } from './pipelines/failure-cluster'\nimport { canonicalize, hashJson } from './pre-registration'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport {\n  benjaminiHochberg,\n  confidenceInterval,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n// ── summaryTable ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SummaryTableOptions {\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Wilcoxon + paired Cohen's dz are computed\n   *  versus this candidate. Required for paired stats columns. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to read scores from. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI on the mean. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR for BH adjustment of the comparison p-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTableRow {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  /** BH-adjusted q-value vs comparator, or null when unavailable. */\n  qValue: number | null\n  /** Paired Cohen's dz vs comparator, or null when the paired variance is zero. */\n  cohensD: number | null\n  /** Matched observations used for paired comparison, or null on the comparator row. */\n  pairedN: number | null\n  /** Candidate observations without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number | null\n  /** Comparator observations without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number | null\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTable {\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[]\n  comparator: string | null\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Pre-rendered markdown — drop into a paper or PR. */\n  markdown: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +\n * bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)\n * BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + paired Cohen's dz versus that comparator.\n */\nexport function summaryTable(runs: RunRecord[], opts: SummaryTableOptions = {}): SummaryTable {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n\n  const byCandidate = new Map<string, { runs: RunRecord[]; scores: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? { runs: [], scores: [] }\n    bucket.runs.push(r)\n    bucket.scores.push(v)\n    byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort()\n  const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : undefined\n\n  // First pass: per-candidate means + CIs + raw p-values.\n  const tentative: Array<SummaryTableRow & { rawP: number | null }> = []\n  for (const id of candidateIds) {\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(id)!\n    const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence)\n    let rawP: number | null = null\n    let d: number | null = null\n    let pairedN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedCandidateN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedComparatorN: number | null = null\n    if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {\n      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, scoreField)\n      pairedN = paired.before.length\n      unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN\n      unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN\n      if (paired.before.length >= 6) {\n        rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p\n      }\n      d = pairedCohensDz(paired.before, paired.after)\n    }\n    tentative.push({\n      candidateId: id,\n      n: bucket.scores.length,\n      mean: ci.mean,\n      ciLow: ci.lower,\n      ciHigh: ci.upper,\n      qValue: rawP,\n      cohensD: d,\n      pairedN,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      rawP,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // BH-adjust across the comparison set (skip NaN rows / the\n  // comparator itself). Adjustment is a no-op when there are 0 or 1\n  // comparators.\n  if (comparator) {\n    const idxs: number[] = []\n    const ps: number[] = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {\n      const r = tentative[i]!\n      if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue\n      if (r.rawP === null || !Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue\n      idxs.push(i)\n      ps.push(r.rawP)\n    }\n    if (ps.length > 0) {\n      const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr)\n      for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) {\n        tentative[idxs[k]!]!.qValue = qValues[k]!\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest)\n  const markdown = renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split)\n  return { rows, comparator, split, markdown }\n}\n\nfunction pairScoresByKey(\n  candidate: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  scoreField: 'searchScore' | 'holdoutScore',\n): {\n  before: number[]\n  after: number[]\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n} {\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]))\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]))\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  return {\n    before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.baseline.outcome[scoreField]!),\n    after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.treatment.outcome[scoreField]!),\n    unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,\n    unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction renderSummaryTableMarkdown(\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[],\n  comparator: string | null,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : ''\n  lines.push(`Summary Table — ${split} split${cmpLabel}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\"| Candidate | N | Pairs | Unpaired | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's dz |\")\n  lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|')\n  for (const r of rows) {\n    const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`\n    const q = r.qValue !== null ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : '—'\n    const d = r.cohensD !== null ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '—'\n    const paired = r.pairedN ?? '—'\n    const unpaired =\n      r.unpairedCandidateN === null || r.unpairedComparatorN === null\n        ? '—'\n        : `${r.unpairedCandidateN}/${r.unpairedComparatorN}`\n    lines.push(\n      `| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${paired} | ${unpaired} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\n// ── paretoChart ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface ParetoPoint {\n  candidateId: string\n  /** Mean USD cost per run on the chosen split. */\n  cost: number\n  /** Mean score on the chosen split. */\n  quality: number\n  /** Number of runs that informed this point. */\n  n: number\n  /** Whether this candidate is on the Pareto frontier — high\n   *  quality, low cost, no dominator. */\n  onFrontier: boolean\n  /** Optional gate verdict for this candidate, if a `GateDecision`\n   *  for it was passed in. */\n  gate?: 'promote' | 'reject'\n}\n\nexport interface ParetoFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'pareto-cost-quality'\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  points: ParetoPoint[]\n  axes: { x: 'costUsd'; y: 'score' }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by\n * candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict\n * for overlay.\n */\nexport function paretoChart(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: {\n    split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  } = {},\n): ParetoFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n\n  const buckets = new Map<string, { cost: number[]; quality: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    if (r.costUsd === null) continue\n    const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] }\n    bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd)\n    bucket.quality.push(v)\n    buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const points: ParetoPoint[] = []\n  for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) {\n    points.push({\n      candidateId,\n      cost: avg(bucket.cost),\n      quality: avg(bucket.quality),\n      n: bucket.cost.length,\n      onFrontier: false,\n      gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId]\n        ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]!)\n        : undefined,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // Pareto: minimize cost, maximize quality. A point is dominated if\n  // some other point has lower-or-equal cost AND higher-or-equal\n  // quality with strict inequality somewhere.\n  for (const p of points) {\n    p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p))\n  }\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'pareto-cost-quality',\n    split,\n    axes: { x: 'costUsd', y: 'score' },\n    points,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction dominates(a: ParetoPoint, b: ParetoPoint): boolean {\n  return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality)\n}\n\nfunction gateLabel(d: GateDecision): ParetoPoint['gate'] {\n  return d.promote ? 'promote' : 'reject'\n}\n\n// ── gainHistogram ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface GainDistributionBin {\n  /** Inclusive lower edge. */\n  lo: number\n  /** Exclusive upper edge (or inclusive if it's the last bin). */\n  hi: number\n  /** Number of pairs whose delta lands in this bin. */\n  count: number\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'gain-distribution'\n  candidateId: string\n  comparator: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Number of pairs used. */\n  n: number\n  /** Candidate rows without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  /** Comparator rows without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n  bins: GainDistributionBin[]\n  median: number | null\n  ci: { low: number; high: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionOptions {\n  /** Number of histogram bins. Default 11 (so the centre is exact at 0). */\n  bins?: number\n  /** Which split to use. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the CI. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Deterministic seed. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −\n * comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median\n * delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.\n */\nexport function gainHistogram(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: GainDistributionOptions = {},\n): GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n  const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11\n  if (binCount < 1) throw new Error('gainHistogram: bins must be ≥ 1')\n\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split)\n  const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(\n    candidate,\n    baseline,\n    scoreField,\n  )\n  const n = before.length\n\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return {\n      kind: 'gain-distribution',\n      candidateId,\n      comparator,\n      split,\n      n: 0,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      bins: [],\n      median: null,\n      ci: null,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const min = sortedDeltas[0]!\n  const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1]!\n\n  // Symmetric bins around the wider of (|min|, |max|) so the chart\n  // visually centres on zero without dropping outliers.\n  const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6)\n  const lo = -bound\n  const hi = bound\n  const width = (hi - lo) / binCount\n  const bins: GainDistributionBin[] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) {\n    bins.push({ lo: lo + i * width, hi: lo + (i + 1) * width, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const d of deltas) {\n    let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width)\n    if (idx < 0) idx = 0\n    if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1\n    bins[idx]!.count += 1\n  }\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence ?? 0.95,\n    resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'gain-distribution',\n    candidateId,\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    n,\n    unpairedCandidateN,\n    unpairedComparatorN,\n    bins,\n    median,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── researchReport ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type ResearchReportDecision =\n  | 'promote'\n  | 'hold'\n  | 'reject'\n  | 'equivalent'\n  | 'needs_more_data'\n\n/**\n * Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative\n * regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank\n * exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.\n */\nexport const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6\n\nexport interface ResearchReportOptions {\n  /** Human-readable report title. */\n  title?: string\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Required for statistical decision guidance. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to use for the primary decision. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level used by lower-level report helpers. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR threshold for q-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n  /**\n   * Soft floor on paired observations before issuing a directional\n   * promote / reject. Below this we report `needs_more_data` and surface the\n   * minimum detectable effect at the current N. Default 20 — chosen so the\n   * Wilcoxon signed-rank approximation is reasonable and so the paired\n   * bootstrap CI has non-degenerate coverage. Hard floor is enforced at\n   * `RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR` (6) regardless of this value.\n   */\n  minPairs?: number\n  /**\n   * Region of Practical Equivalence on the paired delta. When a candidate's\n   * paired-delta CI is fully contained in `[low, high]`, the decision is\n   * `equivalent` rather than `hold`. Sourced from the domain owner — there is\n   * no statistically-defensible default.\n   */\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Power for the minimum detectable effect (MDE) reported on each candidate.\n   * Default 0.8.\n   */\n  mdePower?: number\n  /**\n   * Two-sided alpha for the MDE. Default matches `fdr` so the reported MDE\n   * lines up with the test the report actually runs.\n   */\n  mdeAlpha?: number\n  /** Optional held-out gate decisions keyed by candidate id. */\n  gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  /** Optional failure clusters from failureClusterView. */\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  /** Build gain histograms for these candidates. Defaults to all non-comparator candidates. */\n  candidateIds?: string[]\n  /** Deterministic bootstrap seed passed to gainHistogram and the posterior helper. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Report timestamp. Defaults to current time. */\n  generatedAt?: string\n  /**\n   * Hash of a preregistered protocol (e.g. `signManifest({...}).contentHash`).\n   * Embedded verbatim in the report so the analysis can be cited as the\n   * preregistered one rather than a post-hoc fishing expedition.\n   */\n  preregistrationHash?: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  candidateId: string | null\n  rationale: string[]\n  risks: string[]\n  nextActions: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportCandidate {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  qValue: number | null\n  cohensD: number | null\n  meanDeltaVsComparator: number | null\n  pairedN: number\n  medianGain: number | null\n  meanGain: number | null\n  gainCi: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  /**\n   * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries on the paired mean delta.\n   * Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights represent uncertainty over the empirical\n   * distribution of matched deltas.\n   */\n  prGreaterThanZero: number | null\n  prInRope: number | null\n  /**\n   * Minimum detectable effect (in score units) at the candidate's paired N,\n   * the configured power, and the configured alpha. Standardised by the\n   * observed paired-delta SD and inverted via `requiredSampleSize`. Reported\n   * for every candidate so a `needs_more_data` verdict is actionable.\n   */\n  mde: number | null\n  onParetoFrontier: boolean\n  gate?: ParetoPoint['gate']\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  decisionReason: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportMethodology {\n  /**\n   * Plain-language assumptions the report depends on. Read these first when\n   * deciding whether the verdict is load-bearing for a launch decision.\n   */\n  assumptions: string[]\n  /** Tests and estimators the verdict was computed from. */\n  methods: string[]\n  /** Alternatives the author considered and why this report didn't take them. */\n  alternatives: string[]\n  /** Failure modes — when this report should NOT drive a decision. */\n  whenNotToApply: string[]\n  /** Citations for the methodological choices above. */\n  citations: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReport {\n  kind: 'agent-eval-research-report'\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  /**\n   * SHA-256 over the canonicalised set of `(runId, candidateId, split)` triples\n   * the report was computed from, plus the comparator and split. Stable across\n   * key insertion order; recomputable by the reader to verify provenance.\n   */\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  charts: {\n    pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n    gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  }\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  markdown: string\n  html: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Internal: paired posterior summary on (candidate − comparator) deltas.\n *\n * Returns the bootstrap CI on the median (matching `gainHistogram`) plus\n * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) computed\n * from Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights on the observed paired deltas\n * (Rubin 1981), and the\n * minimum detectable paired effect at the configured power and α.\n *\n * `null` is returned when no paired observations exist; callers must\n * gate on `n` before consuming the bootstrap statistics.\n */\nfunction pairedPosterior(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: {\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    confidence: number\n    seed?: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    mdePower: number\n    mdeAlpha: number\n  },\n): {\n  n: number\n  meanDelta: number\n  medianDelta: number\n  sdDelta: number\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n  prGreaterThanZero: number\n  prInRope: number | null\n  mde: number\n} | null {\n  const scoreField = opts.split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField)\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n === 0) return null\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const meanDelta = deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const medianDelta = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const sdDelta = stdev(deltas, meanDelta)\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  const meanSamples = bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2000, opts.seed)\n  const prGreaterThanZero =\n    meanSamples.length === 0 ? 0 : meanSamples.filter((s) => s > 0).length / meanSamples.length\n  const prInRope =\n    opts.rope === null || meanSamples.length === 0\n      ? null\n      : meanSamples.filter((s) => s >= opts.rope!.low && s <= opts.rope!.high).length /\n        meanSamples.length\n\n  const dStandardised = pairedMde({ nPaired: n, alpha: opts.mdeAlpha, power: opts.mdePower })\n  const mde = sdDelta === 0 ? 0 : dStandardised * sdDelta\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    meanDelta,\n    medianDelta,\n    sdDelta,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n    prGreaterThanZero,\n    prInRope,\n    mde,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(\n  deltas: number[],\n  resamples: number,\n  seed?: number,\n): number[] {\n  const n = deltas.length\n  if (n === 0) return []\n  if (n === 1) return new Array<number>(resamples).fill(deltas[0]!)\n  const rng = seedRng(seed)\n  const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n    let weightedSum = 0\n    let weightSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n      const weight = -Math.log(Math.max(Number.MIN_VALUE, rng()))\n      weightedSum += deltas[k]! * weight\n      weightSum += weight\n    }\n    samples[b] = weightedSum / weightSum\n  }\n  return samples\n}\n\nfunction seedRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n\nfunction stdev(xs: number[], mean: number): number {\n  if (xs.length < 2) return 0\n  let sse = 0\n  for (const x of xs) sse += (x - mean) ** 2\n  return Math.sqrt(sse / (xs.length - 1))\n}\n\n/**\n * Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.\n *\n * Composes:\n *   - `summaryTable`         marginal stats with BH-FDR-adjusted q-values\n *   - `paretoChart`           cost-vs-quality frontier with gate overlay\n *   - `gainHistogram`         per-candidate paired-delta distribution\n *   - paired posterior (this file): bootstrap CI on median, Bayesian-bootstrap Pr(Δ>0),\n *                              Pr(Δ∈ROPE), MDE at the configured power\n *\n * Decisions are made on paired evidence — never on marginal means alone —\n * and respect any held-out gate decision the caller passes through. The\n * report embeds a SHA-256 fingerprint of the input run set and, optionally,\n * the hash of a preregistered protocol so a downstream reader can verify\n * provenance and that the analysis was the preregistered one.\n *\n * Async because the fingerprint uses Web Crypto via `hashJson`; deterministic\n * for any fixed `runs`, `seed`, and ROPE.\n */\nexport async function researchReport(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: ResearchReportOptions = {},\n): Promise<ResearchReport> {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const minPairs = Math.max(opts.minPairs ?? 20, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR)\n  const rope = opts.rope ?? null\n  const mdePower = opts.mdePower ?? 0.8\n  const mdeAlpha = opts.mdeAlpha ?? fdr\n  const title = opts.title ?? 'Agent Evaluation Research Report'\n  const generatedAt = opts.generatedAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null\n\n  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `researchReport: rope must satisfy low ≤ high with finite bounds, got ${JSON.stringify(rope)}`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const summary = summaryTable(runs, {\n    comparator: comparator ?? undefined,\n    split,\n    confidence,\n    fdr,\n  })\n  const pareto = paretoChart(runs, { split, gateDecisions: opts.gateDecisions })\n  const candidateIds =\n    opts.candidateIds ?? summary.rows.map((r) => r.candidateId).filter((id) => id !== comparator)\n  const gains = comparator\n    ? candidateIds.map((id) =>\n        gainHistogram(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n        }),\n      )\n    : []\n\n  const gainByCandidate = new Map(gains.map((g) => [g.candidateId, g]))\n  const paretoByCandidate = new Map(pareto.points.map((p) => [p.candidateId, p]))\n  const posteriorByCandidate = new Map<string, ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior>>()\n  if (comparator) {\n    for (const id of candidateIds) {\n      posteriorByCandidate.set(\n        id,\n        pairedPosterior(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n          rope,\n          mdePower,\n          mdeAlpha,\n        }),\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  const candidates = summary.rows\n    .map((row) => {\n      const gain = gainByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const point = paretoByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const posterior = posteriorByCandidate.get(row.candidateId) ?? null\n      const gateDecision = opts.gateDecisions?.[row.candidateId]\n      const classified = classifyCandidate(row, {\n        comparator,\n        posterior,\n        point,\n        gateDecision,\n        split,\n        fdr,\n        minPairs,\n        rope,\n      })\n      return {\n        candidateId: row.candidateId,\n        n: row.n,\n        mean: row.mean,\n        ciLow: row.ciLow,\n        ciHigh: row.ciHigh,\n        qValue: row.qValue,\n        cohensD: row.cohensD,\n        meanDeltaVsComparator: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        pairedN: posterior?.n ?? gain?.n ?? 0,\n        medianGain: posterior ? posterior.medianDelta : gain ? gain.median : null,\n        meanGain: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        gainCi: posterior ? posterior.ci : gain ? gain.ci : null,\n        prGreaterThanZero: posterior ? posterior.prGreaterThanZero : null,\n        prInRope: posterior ? posterior.prInRope : null,\n        mde: posterior ? posterior.mde : null,\n        onParetoFrontier: point?.onFrontier ?? false,\n        gate: gateDecision ? gateLabel(gateDecision) : undefined,\n        decision: classified.decision,\n        decisionReason: classified.reason,\n      } satisfies ResearchReportCandidate\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => {\n      const decisionRank = decisionWeight(b.decision) - decisionWeight(a.decision)\n      if (decisionRank !== 0) return decisionRank\n      return b.mean - a.mean\n    })\n\n  const recommendation = buildRecommendation(candidates, {\n    comparator,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    rope,\n    minPairs,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const executiveSummary = buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, {\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const methodology = buildMethodology({\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    fdr,\n    minPairs,\n    rope,\n    confidence,\n    mdePower,\n    mdeAlpha,\n  })\n\n  const runFingerprint = await hashJson(\n    canonicalize({\n      triples: runs\n        .filter((r) => r.splitTag === split)\n        .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, candidateId: r.candidateId, splitTag: r.splitTag }))\n        .sort((a, b) => a.runId.localeCompare(b.runId)),\n      comparator,\n      split,\n    }),\n  )\n\n  const markdown = renderResearchMarkdown({\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    rope,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    pareto,\n    gains,\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n  })\n  const html = renderResearchHtml(markdown, title)\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'agent-eval-research-report',\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    rope,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    charts: { pareto, gains },\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    markdown,\n    html,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildMethodology(ctx: {\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  fdr: number\n  minPairs: number\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  confidence: number\n  mdePower: number\n  mdeAlpha: number\n}): ResearchReportMethodology {\n  const assumptions: string[] = [\n    'Pairs are matched by (experimentId, scenarioId, seed); input order does not affect the comparison.',\n    'Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario — no mid-run distribution shift.',\n    `Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`,\n  ]\n  if (ctx.rope) {\n    assumptions.push(\n      `The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of \"no material difference.\"`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.comparator === null) {\n    assumptions.push('No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.')\n  }\n  const methods: string[] = [\n    \"Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and paired Cohen's dz via summaryTable.\",\n    'Paired evidence summarised with a frequentist bootstrap CI on the median delta and a Dirichlet-weight Bayesian bootstrap for Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) on the mean delta.',\n    `Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at α=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,\n    'Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.',\n    'Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction.',\n  ]\n  const alternatives: string[] = [\n    'Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.',\n    'Unpaired Mann–Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.',\n    'Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report — preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.',\n    'Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics.',\n  ]\n  const whenNotToApply: string[] = [\n    `Paired N below ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} on any candidate — the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,\n    'Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.',\n    'Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.',\n    'Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) — pair exchangeability is violated.',\n  ]\n  const citations: string[] = [\n    'Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289–300.',\n    'Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80–83.',\n    'Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.',\n    'Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130–134.',\n    'Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270–280. (ROPE.)',\n  ]\n  return { assumptions, methods, alternatives, whenNotToApply, citations }\n}\n\nfunction formatRope(rope: { low: number; high: number }): string {\n  return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`\n}\n\nfunction classifyCandidate(\n  row: SummaryTableRow,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    posterior: ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior> | null\n    point?: ParetoPoint\n    gateDecision?: GateDecision\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    fdr: number\n    minPairs: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  },\n): { decision: ResearchReportDecision; reason: string } {\n  if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) {\n    return { decision: 'hold', reason: 'Comparator baseline.' }\n  }\n  if (ctx.gateDecision && !ctx.gateDecision.promote) {\n    const code = ctx.gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? 'rejected'\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Held-out gate returned ${code}: ${ctx.gateDecision.reason}`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    return {\n      decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? 'hold' : 'needs_more_data',\n      reason:\n        'No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call.',\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} for any paired inference.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const ci = ctx.posterior.ci\n  if (ctx.split === 'search') {\n    return {\n      decision: 'hold',\n      reason:\n        'Search-split evidence is descriptive; release decisions require matched holdout runs.',\n    }\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'equivalent',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const gainPositive = ci.low > 0\n  const gainNegative = ci.high < 0\n  if (gainNegative) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need ≥ ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (row.qValue !== null && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr && gainPositive) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'promote',\n      reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} ≤ ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    decision: 'hold',\n    reason: `Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendation(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    minPairs: number\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'promote')\n  const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent')\n  const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null\n  const decision: ResearchReportDecision = bestPromote\n    ? 'promote'\n    : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n      ? 'needs_more_data'\n      : bestEquivalent\n        ? 'equivalent'\n        : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'hold')\n          ? 'hold'\n          : 'reject'\n\n  const rationale: string[] = []\n  const risks: string[] = []\n  const nextActions: string[] = []\n\n  if (chosen) {\n    rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`)\n    if (chosen.gainCi) {\n      const probSummary =\n        chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null ? `, Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}` : ''\n      rationale.push(\n        `Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) {\n      rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`)\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    risks.push('No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.')\n    nextActions.push('Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.')\n  }\n  if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection.',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish \"equivalent\" from \"inconclusive\".',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold.',\n    )\n  }\n  const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n  if (inconclusive.length > 0) {\n    const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => (b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a))\n    risks.push(\n      `${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`,\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      `Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject')\n  if (rejected.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      `${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`)\n    nextActions.push('Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.')\n  }\n  if (decision === 'promote') {\n    nextActions.push('Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.')\n  } else if (decision === 'hold') {\n    nextActions.push('Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.')\n  } else if (decision === 'equivalent') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds — equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one.',\n    )\n  } else if (decision === 'reject') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate.',\n    )\n  }\n\n  return {\n    decision,\n    candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,\n    rationale,\n    risks,\n    nextActions,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildExecutiveSummary(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): string[] {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  lines.push(\n    `Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  lines.push(\n    `Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'promote').length\n  const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'hold').length\n  const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent').length\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject').length\n  const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data').length\n  lines.push(\n    `Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`,\n  )\n  const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId)\n  if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(', ')}.`)\n  if (ctx.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push(\n      `Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push(\n    ctx.preregistrationHash\n      ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}…`\n      : 'Analysis is post-hoc — no preregistration hash supplied.',\n  )\n  return lines\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchMarkdown(report: {\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n  gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n}): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${report.title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`)\n  lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`)\n  lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \\`${report.runFingerprint}\\``)\n  lines.push(\n    `**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\\`${report.preregistrationHash}\\`` : 'none'}`,\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Executive Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Recommendation')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`)\n  lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? 'N/A'}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Rationale')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Risks')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length\n    ? report.recommendation.risks\n    : ['No material report-level risks detected.']) {\n    lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Next Actions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Candidate Decision Table')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    '| Candidate | Decision | Mean | Δ̄ | Pr(Δ>0) | q | dz | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |',\n  )\n  lines.push('|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|')\n  for (const c of report.candidates) {\n    const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? '-' : signed(c.meanDeltaVsComparator)\n    const prGt = c.prGreaterThanZero === null ? '-' : c.prGreaterThanZero.toFixed(3)\n    const q = c.qValue !== null ? c.qValue.toFixed(4) : '-'\n    const d = c.cohensD !== null ? c.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '-'\n    const gain = c.gainCi ? `[${fmt(c.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(c.gainCi.high)}]` : '-'\n    const mde = c.mde === null || !Number.isFinite(c.mde) ? '-' : fmt(c.mde)\n    lines.push(\n      `| ${c.candidateId} | ${c.decision} | ${fmt(c.mean)} | ${delta} | ${prGt} | ${q} | ${d} | ${c.pairedN} | ${gain} | ${mde} | ${c.onParetoFrontier ? 'yes' : 'no'} | ${c.gate ?? '-'} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Statistical Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(report.summary.markdown)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Methodology')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Assumptions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Methods')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Alternatives Considered')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### When NOT To Apply')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Citations')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Chart Specs')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    'The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms.',\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('```json')\n  lines.push(JSON.stringify({ pareto: report.pareto, gains: report.gains }, null, 2))\n  lines.push('```')\n  if (report.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('## Failure Clusters')\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |')\n    lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---|---|')\n    for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) {\n      lines.push(\n        `| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? 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package/dist/chunk-VQMK5FMP.js

@@ -1,247 +0,0 @@
-// src/trace/emitter.ts
-var TraceEmitter = class {
-  store;
-  stack = [];
-  _runId;
-  now;
-  id;
-  hooks;
-  hookErrors;
-  constructor(store, options = {}) {
-    this.store = store;
-    this.now = options.now ?? (() => Date.now());
-    this.id = options.id ?? (() => cryptoRandomId());
-    this._runId = options.runId ?? this.id();
-    this.hooks = options.onRunComplete ?? [];
-    this.hookErrors = options.hookErrors ?? "swallow";
-  }
-  get runId() {
-    return this._runId;
-  }
-  get traceStore() {
-    return this.store;
-  }
-  /** Append a hook after construction (e.g. attach the trace analyst). */
-  addRunCompleteHook(hook) {
-    this.hooks.push(hook);
-  }
-  // ── Run lifecycle ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
-  /**
-   * Begin a Run.
-   *
-   * `scenarioId` is required on the persisted Run shape — every Run downstream
-   * gets a non-empty scenarioId so filters and aggregations stay simple — but
-   * the INPUT here accepts it as optional. When omitted, startRun substitutes
-   * a sensible default (`run.layer ?? run.tags?.['kind'] ?? 'runtime'`) so
-   * runtime / operator / meta-eval runs that have no curated-scenario corpus
-   * to anchor to don't have to invent placeholder strings at the call site.
-   */
-  async startRun(run) {
-    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId ?? run.layer ?? run.tags?.kind ?? "runtime";
-    const full = {
-      ...run,
-      scenarioId,
-      runId: this._runId,
-      startedAt: this.now(),
-      status: "running"
-    };
-    await this.store.appendRun(full);
-    return full;
-  }
-  async endRun(outcome) {
-    const status = outcome?.pass === false ? "failed" : "completed";
-    await this.store.updateRun(this._runId, { endedAt: this.now(), status, outcome });
-    await this.runHooks({ runId: this._runId, emitter: this, store: this.store, outcome, status });
-  }
-  async abortRun(reason) {
-    const outcome = { pass: false, notes: reason };
-    await this.store.updateRun(this._runId, {
-      endedAt: this.now(),
-      status: "aborted",
-      outcome
-    });
-    await this.runHooks({
-      runId: this._runId,
-      emitter: this,
-      store: this.store,
-      outcome,
-      status: "aborted"
-    });
-  }
-  async runHooks(ctx) {
-    for (const hook of this.hooks) {
-      try {
-        await hook(ctx);
-      } catch (err) {
-        if (this.hookErrors === "throw") throw err;
-        try {
-          await this.store.appendEvent({
-            eventId: this.id(),
-            runId: this._runId,
-            kind: "log",
-            timestamp: this.now(),
-            payload: {
-              source: "run_complete_hook",
-              error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)
-            }
-          });
-        } catch {
-        }
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  // ── Generic span ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
-  async span(init) {
-    const spanId = this.id();
-    const parent = init.parentSpanId ?? this.stack[this.stack.length - 1];
-    const span = {
-      spanId,
-      parentSpanId: parent,
-      runId: this._runId,
-      startedAt: this.now(),
-      ...init
-    };
-    await this.store.appendSpan(span);
-    this.stack.push(spanId);
-    return this.handle(span);
-  }
-  handle(span) {
-    return {
-      span,
-      end: async (patch) => {
-        const endedAt = this.now();
-        await this.store.updateSpan(span.spanId, {
-          endedAt,
-          status: "ok",
-          ...patch
-        });
-        this.pop(span.spanId);
-      },
-      fail: async (error, patch) => {
-        const endedAt = this.now();
-        const errStr = error instanceof Error ? error.message : error;
-        await this.store.updateSpan(span.spanId, {
-          endedAt,
-          status: "error",
-          error: errStr,
-          ...patch
-        });
-        this.pop(span.spanId);
-      }
-    };
-  }
-  pop(spanId) {
-    const idx = this.stack.lastIndexOf(spanId);
-    if (idx >= 0) this.stack.splice(idx, 1);
-  }
-  // ── Typed span conveniences ────────────────────────────────────────
-  llm(init) {
-    return this.span({ kind: "llm", ...init });
-  }
-  tool(init) {
-    return this.span({ kind: "tool", ...init });
-  }
-  retrieval(init) {
-    return this.span({ kind: "retrieval", ...init });
-  }
-  async recordJudge(verdict) {
-    const spanId = this.id();
-    const now = this.now();
-    const full = {
-      spanId,
-      runId: this._runId,
-      kind: "judge",
-      startedAt: now,
-      endedAt: now,
-      status: "ok",
-      ...verdict
-    };
-    await this.store.appendSpan(full);
-    return full;
-  }
-  sandbox(init) {
-    return this.span({ kind: "sandbox", ...init });
-  }
-  // ── Events ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-  async emit(event) {
-    const full = {
-      eventId: this.id(),
-      runId: this._runId,
-      spanId: event.spanId ?? this.stack[this.stack.length - 1],
-      kind: event.kind,
-      timestamp: this.now(),
-      payload: event.payload ?? {}
-    };
-    await this.store.appendEvent(full);
-    return full;
-  }
-  // ── Budget ledger ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
-  async recordBudget(entry) {
-    const full = {
-      runId: this._runId,
-      timestamp: entry.timestamp ?? this.now(),
-      dimension: entry.dimension,
-      limit: entry.limit,
-      consumed: entry.consumed,
-      remaining: entry.remaining,
-      breached: entry.breached,
-      spanId: entry.spanId ?? this.stack[this.stack.length - 1]
-    };
-    await this.store.appendBudgetEntry(full);
-    if (full.breached) {
-      await this.emit({
-        kind: "budget_breach",
-        spanId: full.spanId,
-        payload: { dimension: full.dimension, limit: full.limit, consumed: full.consumed }
-      });
-    }
-    return full;
-  }
-  // ── Artifacts ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-  async recordArtifact(artifact) {
-    const full = { artifactId: this.id(), runId: this._runId, ...artifact };
-    await this.store.appendArtifact(full);
-    return full;
-  }
-  // ── Nested composition ─────────────────────────────────────────────
-  /**
-   * Runs `fn` inside a span; auto-ends on success, auto-fails on throw.
-   * Returns the fn's return value. Use this for the 95% case.
-   */
-  async within(init, fn) {
-    const handle = await this.span(init);
-    try {
-      const result = await fn(handle);
-      await handle.end();
-      return result;
-    } catch (err) {
-      await handle.fail(err instanceof Error ? err : String(err));
-      throw err;
-    }
-  }
-};
-function cryptoRandomId() {
-  if (typeof globalThis.crypto?.randomUUID === "function") return globalThis.crypto.randomUUID();
-  return `${Date.now().toString(36)}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 10)}`;
-}
-function llmSpanFromProvider(args) {
-  return {
-    name: args.name ?? args.model,
-    model: args.model,
-    messages: args.messages,
-    output: args.output,
-    inputTokens: args.usage?.inputTokens,
-    outputTokens: args.usage?.outputTokens,
-    cachedTokens: args.usage?.cachedTokens,
-    cacheWriteTokens: args.usage?.cacheWriteTokens,
-    reasoningTokens: args.usage?.reasoningTokens,
-    costUsd: args.costUsd,
-    finishReason: args.finishReason
-  };
-}
-
-export {
-  TraceEmitter,
-  llmSpanFromProvider
-};
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-VQMK5FMP.js.map

package/dist/chunk-VQMK5FMP.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/trace/emitter.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * TraceEmitter — hierarchical span builder that auto-parents using an\n * internal stack. One emitter per Run; emitters do NOT share state.\n *\n * Convenience methods (`llm`, `tool`, `retrieval`, `judge`, `sandbox`)\n * return a `SpanHandle` with `.end()` / `.fail()` so callers don't\n * have to thread spanIds manually. For async workflows that can't use\n * the stack (e.g. fan-out parallel calls), pass `parentSpanId`\n * explicitly.\n */\n\nimport type {\n  Artifact,\n  BudgetLedgerEntry,\n  EventKind,\n  JudgeSpan,\n  LlmSpan,\n  Message,\n  RetrievalSpan,\n  Run,\n  RunOutcome,\n  SandboxSpan,\n  Span,\n  SpanKind,\n  ToolSpan,\n  TraceEvent,\n} from './schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './store'\n\nexport interface SpanHandle<S extends Span = Span> {\n  span: S\n  end(patch?: Partial<S>): Promise<void>\n  fail(error: string | Error, patch?: Partial<S>): Promise<void>\n}\n\nexport interface RunCompleteHookContext {\n  runId: string\n  emitter: TraceEmitter\n  store: TraceStore\n  /** Outcome the caller passed to `endRun` (undefined for `abortRun`). */\n  outcome?: RunOutcome\n  /** Final run status. */\n  status: 'completed' | 'failed' | 'aborted'\n}\n\nexport type RunCompleteHook = (ctx: RunCompleteHookContext) => Promise<void> | void\n\nexport interface TraceEmitterOptions {\n  runId?: string\n  /** Inject a clock for deterministic tests. */\n  now?: () => number\n  /** Inject an id generator for deterministic tests. */\n  id?: () => string\n  /**\n   * Hooks fired after `endRun` / `abortRun` writes the final run state.\n   * Designed for trace-analyst auto-execution, integrity assertions, and\n   * outbound notifications. Hooks run sequentially in the order supplied.\n   *\n   * By default a hook that throws is swallowed and logged as a `note` event\n   * on the run — auto-orchestration must not crash the underlying flow.\n   * Set `hookErrors: 'throw'` to propagate.\n   */\n  onRunComplete?: RunCompleteHook[]\n  /** `'swallow'` (default) | `'throw'`. */\n  hookErrors?: 'swallow' | 'throw'\n}\n\nexport class TraceEmitter {\n  private store: TraceStore\n  private stack: string[] = []\n  private _runId: string\n  private now: () => number\n  private id: () => string\n  private hooks: RunCompleteHook[]\n  private hookErrors: 'swallow' | 'throw'\n\n  constructor(store: TraceStore, options: TraceEmitterOptions = {}) {\n    this.store = store\n    this.now = options.now ?? (() => Date.now())\n    this.id = options.id ?? (() => cryptoRandomId())\n    this._runId = options.runId ?? this.id()\n    this.hooks = options.onRunComplete ?? []\n    this.hookErrors = options.hookErrors ?? 'swallow'\n  }\n\n  get runId(): string {\n    return this._runId\n  }\n\n  get traceStore(): TraceStore {\n    return this.store\n  }\n\n  /** Append a hook after construction (e.g. attach the trace analyst). */\n  addRunCompleteHook(hook: RunCompleteHook): void {\n    this.hooks.push(hook)\n  }\n\n  // ── Run lifecycle ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n  /**\n   * Begin a Run.\n   *\n   * `scenarioId` is required on the persisted Run shape — every Run downstream\n   * gets a non-empty scenarioId so filters and aggregations stay simple — but\n   * the INPUT here accepts it as optional. When omitted, startRun substitutes\n   * a sensible default (`run.layer ?? run.tags?.['kind'] ?? 'runtime'`) so\n   * runtime / operator / meta-eval runs that have no curated-scenario corpus\n   * to anchor to don't have to invent placeholder strings at the call site.\n   */\n  async startRun(\n    run: Omit<Run, 'runId' | 'scenarioId' | 'startedAt' | 'status'> & { scenarioId?: string },\n  ): Promise<Run> {\n    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId ?? run.layer ?? run.tags?.kind ?? 'runtime'\n    const full: Run = {\n      ...run,\n      scenarioId,\n      runId: this._runId,\n      startedAt: this.now(),\n      status: 'running',\n    }\n    await this.store.appendRun(full)\n    return full\n  }\n\n  async endRun(outcome?: RunOutcome): Promise<void> {\n    const status: 'completed' | 'failed' = outcome?.pass === false ? 'failed' : 'completed'\n    await this.store.updateRun(this._runId, { endedAt: this.now(), status, outcome })\n    await this.runHooks({ runId: this._runId, emitter: this, store: this.store, outcome, status })\n  }\n\n  async abortRun(reason: string): Promise<void> {\n    const outcome = { pass: false, notes: reason }\n    await this.store.updateRun(this._runId, {\n      endedAt: this.now(),\n      status: 'aborted',\n      outcome,\n    })\n    await this.runHooks({\n      runId: this._runId,\n      emitter: this,\n      store: this.store,\n      outcome,\n      status: 'aborted',\n    })\n  }\n\n  private async runHooks(ctx: RunCompleteHookContext): Promise<void> {\n    for (const hook of this.hooks) {\n      try {\n        await hook(ctx)\n      } catch (err) {\n        if (this.hookErrors === 'throw') throw err\n        try {\n          await this.store.appendEvent({\n            eventId: this.id(),\n            runId: this._runId,\n            kind: 'log',\n            timestamp: this.now(),\n            payload: {\n              source: 'run_complete_hook',\n              error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n            },\n          })\n        } catch {\n          // best-effort\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // ── Generic span ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n  async span<S extends Span = Span>(\n    init: {\n      kind: SpanKind\n      name: string\n      parentSpanId?: string\n      attributes?: Record<string, unknown>\n    } & Partial<Omit<S, 'spanId' | 'runId' | 'startedAt' | 'kind' | 'name'>>,\n  ): Promise<SpanHandle<S>> {\n    const spanId = this.id()\n    const parent = init.parentSpanId ?? this.stack[this.stack.length - 1]\n    const span = {\n      spanId,\n      parentSpanId: parent,\n      runId: this._runId,\n      startedAt: this.now(),\n      ...init,\n    } as unknown as S\n    await this.store.appendSpan(span)\n    this.stack.push(spanId)\n    return this.handle<S>(span)\n  }\n\n  private handle<S extends Span>(span: S): SpanHandle<S> {\n    return {\n      span,\n      end: async (patch?: Partial<S>) => {\n        const endedAt = this.now()\n        await this.store.updateSpan(span.spanId, {\n          endedAt,\n          status: 'ok',\n          ...patch,\n        } as Partial<Span>)\n        this.pop(span.spanId)\n      },\n      fail: async (error: string | Error, patch?: Partial<S>) => {\n        const endedAt = this.now()\n        const errStr = error instanceof Error ? error.message : error\n        await this.store.updateSpan(span.spanId, {\n          endedAt,\n          status: 'error',\n          error: errStr,\n          ...patch,\n        } as Partial<Span>)\n        this.pop(span.spanId)\n      },\n    }\n  }\n\n  private pop(spanId: string): void {\n    const idx = this.stack.lastIndexOf(spanId)\n    if (idx >= 0) this.stack.splice(idx, 1)\n  }\n\n  // ── Typed span conveniences ────────────────────────────────────────\n\n  llm(\n    init: Omit<LlmSpan, 'spanId' | 'runId' | 'kind' | 'startedAt'>,\n  ): Promise<SpanHandle<LlmSpan>> {\n    return this.span<LlmSpan>({ kind: 'llm', ...init })\n  }\n\n  tool(\n    init: Omit<ToolSpan, 'spanId' | 'runId' | 'kind' | 'startedAt'>,\n  ): Promise<SpanHandle<ToolSpan>> {\n    return this.span<ToolSpan>({ kind: 'tool', ...init })\n  }\n\n  retrieval(\n    init: Omit<RetrievalSpan, 'spanId' | 'runId' | 'kind' | 'startedAt'>,\n  ): Promise<SpanHandle<RetrievalSpan>> {\n    return this.span<RetrievalSpan>({ kind: 'retrieval', ...init })\n  }\n\n  async recordJudge(\n    verdict: Omit<JudgeSpan, 'spanId' | 'runId' | 'kind' | 'startedAt' | 'endedAt'>,\n  ): Promise<JudgeSpan> {\n    const spanId = this.id()\n    const now = this.now()\n    const full: JudgeSpan = {\n      spanId,\n      runId: this._runId,\n      kind: 'judge',\n      startedAt: now,\n      endedAt: now,\n      status: 'ok',\n      ...verdict,\n    }\n    await this.store.appendSpan(full)\n    return full\n  }\n\n  sandbox(\n    init: Omit<SandboxSpan, 'spanId' | 'runId' | 'kind' | 'startedAt'>,\n  ): Promise<SpanHandle<SandboxSpan>> {\n    return this.span<SandboxSpan>({ kind: 'sandbox', ...init })\n  }\n\n  // ── Events ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n  async emit(event: {\n    kind: EventKind\n    spanId?: string\n    payload?: Record<string, unknown>\n  }): Promise<TraceEvent> {\n    const full: TraceEvent = {\n      eventId: this.id(),\n      runId: this._runId,\n      spanId: event.spanId ?? this.stack[this.stack.length - 1],\n      kind: event.kind,\n      timestamp: this.now(),\n      payload: event.payload ?? {},\n    }\n    await this.store.appendEvent(full)\n    return full\n  }\n\n  // ── Budget ledger ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n  async recordBudget(\n    entry: Omit<BudgetLedgerEntry, 'runId' | 'timestamp'> & { timestamp?: number },\n  ): Promise<BudgetLedgerEntry> {\n    const full: BudgetLedgerEntry = {\n      runId: this._runId,\n      timestamp: entry.timestamp ?? this.now(),\n      dimension: entry.dimension,\n      limit: entry.limit,\n      consumed: entry.consumed,\n      remaining: entry.remaining,\n      breached: entry.breached,\n      spanId: entry.spanId ?? this.stack[this.stack.length - 1],\n    }\n    await this.store.appendBudgetEntry(full)\n    if (full.breached) {\n      await this.emit({\n        kind: 'budget_breach',\n        spanId: full.spanId,\n        payload: { dimension: full.dimension, limit: full.limit, consumed: full.consumed },\n      })\n    }\n    return full\n  }\n\n  // ── Artifacts ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n  async recordArtifact(artifact: Omit<Artifact, 'artifactId' | 'runId'>): Promise<Artifact> {\n    const full: Artifact = { artifactId: this.id(), runId: this._runId, ...artifact }\n    await this.store.appendArtifact(full)\n    return full\n  }\n\n  // ── Nested composition ─────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n  /**\n   * Runs `fn` inside a span; auto-ends on success, auto-fails on throw.\n   * Returns the fn's return value. Use this for the 95% case.\n   */\n  async within<T>(\n    init: Parameters<TraceEmitter['span']>[0],\n    fn: (handle: SpanHandle) => Promise<T>,\n  ): Promise<T> {\n    const handle = await this.span(init)\n    try {\n      const result = await fn(handle)\n      await handle.end()\n      return result\n    } catch (err) {\n      await handle.fail(err instanceof Error ? err : String(err))\n      throw err\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n// Helpers -------------------------------------------------------------\n\nfunction cryptoRandomId(): string {\n  if (typeof globalThis.crypto?.randomUUID === 'function') return globalThis.crypto.randomUUID()\n  return `${Date.now().toString(36)}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 10)}`\n}\n\n/** Helper to build an LLM span handle args object from a provider-shaped response. */\nexport function llmSpanFromProvider(args: {\n  name?: string\n  model: string\n  messages: Message[]\n  output: string\n  usage?: {\n    inputTokens?: number\n    outputTokens?: number\n 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package/dist/chunk-VZSRQ272.js

@@ -1,149 +0,0 @@
-// src/rl/active-curriculum.ts
-function varianceBasedCurriculum(observations, candidateCells, opts) {
-  const variancePrior = opts.variancePrior ?? 0.05;
-  const floor = opts.floorPerCell ?? 1;
-  const budget = opts.budget;
-  const grouped = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const o of observations) {
-    const k = `${o.variantId}::${o.scenarioId}`;
-    const arr = grouped.get(k) ?? [];
-    arr.push(o.score);
-    grouped.set(k, arr);
-  }
-  const cellStats = candidateCells.map((c) => {
-    const k = `${c.variantId}::${c.scenarioId}`;
-    const samples = grouped.get(k) ?? [];
-    const n = samples.length;
-    const mean = n === 0 ? 0.5 : samples.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n;
-    const variance = n < 2 ? variancePrior : samples.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / (n - 1) + variancePrior;
-    const weight = Math.sqrt(variance) + 1 / Math.sqrt(Math.max(1, n));
-    return { variantId: c.variantId, scenarioId: c.scenarioId, n, mean, variance, weight };
-  });
-  const floorTotal = floor * cellStats.length;
-  if (floorTotal >= budget) {
-    const each = Math.max(1, Math.floor(budget / Math.max(1, cellStats.length)));
-    return cellStats.map((c) => ({
-      variantId: c.variantId,
-      scenarioId: c.scenarioId,
-      count: each,
-      reason: `floor allocation (budget tight; n=${c.n})`
-    }));
-  }
-  const remaining = budget - floorTotal;
-  const totalWeight = cellStats.reduce((s, c) => s + c.weight, 0);
-  return cellStats.map((c) => {
-    const proportional = totalWeight === 0 ? 0 : Math.round(c.weight / totalWeight * remaining);
-    return {
-      variantId: c.variantId,
-      scenarioId: c.scenarioId,
-      count: floor + proportional,
-      reason: `variance ${c.variance.toFixed(3)} (n=${c.n}, mean=${c.mean.toFixed(3)})`
-    };
-  });
-}
-function thompsonCurriculum(observations, candidateCells, opts) {
-  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.5;
-  const alpha0 = opts.priorAlpha ?? 1;
-  const beta0 = opts.priorBeta ?? 1;
-  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed);
-  const grouped = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const o of observations) {
-    const k = `${o.variantId}::${o.scenarioId}`;
-    const cur = grouped.get(k) ?? { passes: 0, failures: 0 };
-    const pass = o.pass ?? o.score >= threshold;
-    if (pass) cur.passes += 1;
-    else cur.failures += 1;
-    grouped.set(k, cur);
-  }
-  const stats = candidateCells.map((c) => {
-    const k = `${c.variantId}::${c.scenarioId}`;
-    const cur = grouped.get(k) ?? { passes: 0, failures: 0 };
-    const a = alpha0 + cur.passes;
-    const b = beta0 + cur.failures;
-    const sampled = sampleBeta(a, b, rng);
-    const distance = Math.abs(sampled - threshold);
-    const variance = a * b / ((a + b) ** 2 * (a + b + 1));
-    const sigma = Math.max(0.05, Math.sqrt(variance));
-    const weight = Math.exp(-((distance / sigma) ** 2));
-    return {
-      variantId: c.variantId,
-      scenarioId: c.scenarioId,
-      n: cur.passes + cur.failures,
-      sampled,
-      sigma,
-      weight,
-      a,
-      b
-    };
-  });
-  const totalWeight = stats.reduce((s, c) => s + c.weight, 0);
-  return stats.map((c) => {
-    const proportional = totalWeight === 0 ? 0 : Math.round(c.weight / totalWeight * opts.budget);
-    return {
-      variantId: c.variantId,
-      scenarioId: c.scenarioId,
-      count: Math.max(0, proportional),
-      reason: `Beta(${c.a.toFixed(1)},${c.b.toFixed(1)}) sample=${c.sampled.toFixed(3)} (target ${threshold})`
-    };
-  });
-}
-function observationsFromRunRecords(runs, opts = {}) {
-  const threshold = opts.passThreshold ?? 0.5;
-  const useHoldout = opts.useHoldout ?? true;
-  const out = [];
-  for (const r of runs) {
-    if (!r.scenarioId) continue;
-    const score = useHoldout ? r.outcome.holdoutScore ?? r.outcome.searchScore : r.outcome.searchScore ?? r.outcome.holdoutScore;
-    if (typeof score !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(score)) continue;
-    out.push({
-      variantId: r.candidateId,
-      scenarioId: r.scenarioId,
-      score,
-      pass: score >= threshold
-    });
-  }
-  return out;
-}
-function makeRng(seed) {
-  if (seed === void 0) return Math.random;
-  let s = seed >>> 0;
-  return () => {
-    s = s + 1831565813 >>> 0;
-    let t = s;
-    t = Math.imul(t ^ t >>> 15, t | 1);
-    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ t >>> 7, t | 61);
-    return ((t ^ t >>> 14) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
-  };
-}
-function sampleBeta(alpha, beta, rng) {
-  const a = Math.max(1, alpha);
-  const b = Math.max(1, beta);
-  const x = sampleGamma(a, rng);
-  const y = sampleGamma(b, rng);
-  return x / (x + y);
-}
-function sampleGamma(shape, rng) {
-  const d = shape - 1 / 3;
-  const c = 1 / Math.sqrt(9 * d);
-  while (true) {
-    let x;
-    let v;
-    do {
-      const u1 = rng() || 1e-12;
-      const u2 = rng() || 1e-12;
-      x = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(u1)) * Math.cos(2 * Math.PI * u2);
-      v = 1 + c * x;
-    } while (v <= 0);
-    v = v * v * v;
-    const u = rng();
-    if (u < 1 - 0.0331 * x ** 4) return d * v;
-    if (Math.log(u) < 0.5 * x * x + d * (1 - v + Math.log(v))) return d * v;
-  }
-}
-
-export {
-  varianceBasedCurriculum,
-  thompsonCurriculum,
-  observationsFromRunRecords
-};
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-VZSRQ272.js.map