@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.128.2 → 0.130.0

package/dist/chunk-VLOATJQ2.js

@@ -1,908 +0,0 @@
-import {
-  pairRunRecords
-} from "./chunk-DPUHNQLN.js";
-import {
-  benjaminiHochberg,
-  confidenceInterval,
-  pairedBootstrap,
-  pairedCohensDz,
-  pairedMde,
-  wilcoxonSignedRank
-} from "./chunk-MHELPNRP.js";
-import {
-  canonicalize,
-  hashJson
-} from "./chunk-2JX3CFMB.js";
-
-// src/summary-report.ts
-function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
-  const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
-  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95;
-  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05;
-  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null;
-  const scoreField = split === "holdout" ? "holdoutScore" : "searchScore";
-  const byCandidate = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const r of runs) {
-    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue;
-    const v = r.outcome[scoreField];
-    if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
-    const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? { runs: [], scores: [] };
-    bucket.runs.push(r);
-    bucket.scores.push(v);
-    byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket);
-  }
-  const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort();
-  const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : void 0;
-  const tentative = [];
-  for (const id of candidateIds) {
-    const bucket = byCandidate.get(id);
-    const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence);
-    let rawP = null;
-    let d = null;
-    let pairedN = null;
-    let unpairedCandidateN = null;
-    let unpairedComparatorN = null;
-    if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {
-      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, scoreField);
-      pairedN = paired.before.length;
-      unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN;
-      unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN;
-      if (paired.before.length >= 6) {
-        rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p;
-      }
-      d = pairedCohensDz(paired.before, paired.after);
-    }
-    tentative.push({
-      candidateId: id,
-      n: bucket.scores.length,
-      mean: ci.mean,
-      ciLow: ci.lower,
-      ciHigh: ci.upper,
-      qValue: rawP,
-      cohensD: d,
-      pairedN,
-      unpairedCandidateN,
-      unpairedComparatorN,
-      rawP
-    });
-  }
-  if (comparator) {
-    const idxs = [];
-    const ps = [];
-    for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {
-      const r = tentative[i];
-      if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue;
-      if (r.rawP === null || !Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue;
-      idxs.push(i);
-      ps.push(r.rawP);
-    }
-    if (ps.length > 0) {
-      const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr);
-      for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) {
-        tentative[idxs[k]].qValue = qValues[k];
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest);
-  const markdown = renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split);
-  return { rows, comparator, split, markdown };
-}
-function pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField) {
-  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]));
-  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]));
-  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate);
-  return {
-    before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.baseline.outcome[scoreField]),
-    after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.treatment.outcome[scoreField]),
-    unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,
-    unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length
-  };
-}
-function renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split) {
-  const lines = [];
-  const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : "";
-  lines.push(`Summary Table \u2014 ${split} split${cmpLabel}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("| Candidate | N | Pairs | Unpaired | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's dz |");
-  lines.push("|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|");
-  for (const r of rows) {
-    const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`;
-    const q = r.qValue !== null ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : "\u2014";
-    const d = r.cohensD !== null ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "\u2014";
-    const paired = r.pairedN ?? "\u2014";
-    const unpaired = r.unpairedCandidateN === null || r.unpairedComparatorN === null ? "\u2014" : `${r.unpairedCandidateN}/${r.unpairedComparatorN}`;
-    lines.push(
-      `| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${paired} | ${unpaired} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`
-    );
-  }
-  return lines.join("\n");
-}
-function paretoChart(runs, opts = {}) {
-  const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
-  const scoreField = split === "holdout" ? "holdoutScore" : "searchScore";
-  const buckets = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const r of runs) {
-    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue;
-    const v = r.outcome[scoreField];
-    if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
-    if (r.costUsd === null) continue;
-    const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] };
-    bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd);
-    bucket.quality.push(v);
-    buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket);
-  }
-  const points = [];
-  for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) {
-    points.push({
-      candidateId,
-      cost: avg(bucket.cost),
-      quality: avg(bucket.quality),
-      n: bucket.cost.length,
-      onFrontier: false,
-      gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId] ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]) : void 0
-    });
-  }
-  for (const p of points) {
-    p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p));
-  }
-  return {
-    kind: "pareto-cost-quality",
-    split,
-    axes: { x: "costUsd", y: "score" },
-    points
-  };
-}
-function dominates(a, b) {
-  return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality);
-}
-function gateLabel(d) {
-  return d.promote ? "promote" : "reject";
-}
-function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
-  const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
-  const scoreField = split === "holdout" ? "holdoutScore" : "searchScore";
-  const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11;
-  if (binCount < 1) throw new Error("gainHistogram: bins must be \u2265 1");
-  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split);
-  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split);
-  const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(
-    candidate,
-    baseline,
-    scoreField
-  );
-  const n = before.length;
-  if (n === 0) {
-    return {
-      kind: "gain-distribution",
-      candidateId,
-      comparator,
-      split,
-      n: 0,
-      unpairedCandidateN,
-      unpairedComparatorN,
-      bins: [],
-      median: null,
-      ci: null
-    };
-  }
-  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b);
-  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b);
-  const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas);
-  const min = sortedDeltas[0];
-  const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1];
-  const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6);
-  const lo = -bound;
-  const hi = bound;
-  const width = (hi - lo) / binCount;
-  const bins = [];
-  for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) {
-    bins.push({ lo: lo + i * width, hi: lo + (i + 1) * width, count: 0 });
-  }
-  for (const d of deltas) {
-    let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width);
-    if (idx < 0) idx = 0;
-    if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1;
-    bins[idx].count += 1;
-  }
-  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {
-    confidence: opts.confidence ?? 0.95,
-    resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2e3,
-    statistic: "median",
-    seed: opts.seed
-  });
-  return {
-    kind: "gain-distribution",
-    candidateId,
-    comparator,
-    split,
-    n,
-    unpairedCandidateN,
-    unpairedComparatorN,
-    bins,
-    median,
-    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high }
-  };
-}
-var RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6;
-function pairedPosterior(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts) {
-  const scoreField = opts.split === "holdout" ? "holdoutScore" : "searchScore";
-  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === opts.split);
-  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === opts.split);
-  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField);
-  const n = before.length;
-  if (n === 0) return null;
-  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b);
-  const meanDelta = deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n;
-  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b);
-  const medianDelta = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas);
-  const sdDelta = stdev(deltas, meanDelta);
-  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {
-    confidence: opts.confidence,
-    resamples: 2e3,
-    statistic: "median",
-    seed: opts.seed
-  });
-  const meanSamples = bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2e3, opts.seed);
-  const prGreaterThanZero = meanSamples.length === 0 ? 0 : meanSamples.filter((s) => s > 0).length / meanSamples.length;
-  const prInRope = opts.rope === null || meanSamples.length === 0 ? null : meanSamples.filter((s) => s >= opts.rope.low && s <= opts.rope.high).length / meanSamples.length;
-  const dStandardised = pairedMde({ nPaired: n, alpha: opts.mdeAlpha, power: opts.mdePower });
-  const mde = sdDelta === 0 ? 0 : dStandardised * sdDelta;
-  return {
-    n,
-    meanDelta,
-    medianDelta,
-    sdDelta,
-    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },
-    prGreaterThanZero,
-    prInRope,
-    mde
-  };
-}
-function bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, resamples, seed) {
-  const n = deltas.length;
-  if (n === 0) return [];
-  if (n === 1) return new Array(resamples).fill(deltas[0]);
-  const rng = seedRng(seed);
-  const samples = new Array(resamples);
-  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {
-    let weightedSum = 0;
-    let weightSum = 0;
-    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {
-      const weight = -Math.log(Math.max(Number.MIN_VALUE, rng()));
-      weightedSum += deltas[k] * weight;
-      weightSum += weight;
-    }
-    samples[b] = weightedSum / weightSum;
-  }
-  return samples;
-}
-function seedRng(seed) {
-  if (seed === void 0) return Math.random;
-  let s = seed >>> 0;
-  return () => {
-    s = s + 1831565813 >>> 0;
-    let t = s;
-    t = Math.imul(t ^ t >>> 15, t | 1);
-    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ t >>> 7, t | 61);
-    return ((t ^ t >>> 14) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
-  };
-}
-function stdev(xs, mean) {
-  if (xs.length < 2) return 0;
-  let sse = 0;
-  for (const x of xs) sse += (x - mean) ** 2;
-  return Math.sqrt(sse / (xs.length - 1));
-}
-async function researchReport(runs, opts = {}) {
-  const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
-  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null;
-  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95;
-  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05;
-  const minPairs = Math.max(opts.minPairs ?? 20, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR);
-  const rope = opts.rope ?? null;
-  const mdePower = opts.mdePower ?? 0.8;
-  const mdeAlpha = opts.mdeAlpha ?? fdr;
-  const title = opts.title ?? "Agent Evaluation Research Report";
-  const generatedAt = opts.generatedAt ?? (/* @__PURE__ */ new Date()).toISOString();
-  const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null;
-  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {
-    throw new Error(
-      `researchReport: rope must satisfy low \u2264 high with finite bounds, got ${JSON.stringify(rope)}`
-    );
-  }
-  const summary = summaryTable(runs, {
-    comparator: comparator ?? void 0,
-    split,
-    confidence,
-    fdr
-  });
-  const pareto = paretoChart(runs, { split, gateDecisions: opts.gateDecisions });
-  const candidateIds = opts.candidateIds ?? summary.rows.map((r) => r.candidateId).filter((id) => id !== comparator);
-  const gains = comparator ? candidateIds.map(
-    (id) => gainHistogram(runs, id, comparator, {
-      split,
-      confidence,
-      seed: opts.seed
-    })
-  ) : [];
-  const gainByCandidate = new Map(gains.map((g) => [g.candidateId, g]));
-  const paretoByCandidate = new Map(pareto.points.map((p) => [p.candidateId, p]));
-  const posteriorByCandidate = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  if (comparator) {
-    for (const id of candidateIds) {
-      posteriorByCandidate.set(
-        id,
-        pairedPosterior(runs, id, comparator, {
-          split,
-          confidence,
-          seed: opts.seed,
-          rope,
-          mdePower,
-          mdeAlpha
-        })
-      );
-    }
-  }
-  const candidates = summary.rows.map((row) => {
-    const gain = gainByCandidate.get(row.candidateId);
-    const point = paretoByCandidate.get(row.candidateId);
-    const posterior = posteriorByCandidate.get(row.candidateId) ?? null;
-    const gateDecision = opts.gateDecisions?.[row.candidateId];
-    const classified = classifyCandidate(row, {
-      comparator,
-      posterior,
-      point,
-      gateDecision,
-      split,
-      fdr,
-      minPairs,
-      rope
-    });
-    return {
-      candidateId: row.candidateId,
-      n: row.n,
-      mean: row.mean,
-      ciLow: row.ciLow,
-      ciHigh: row.ciHigh,
-      qValue: row.qValue,
-      cohensD: row.cohensD,
-      meanDeltaVsComparator: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,
-      pairedN: posterior?.n ?? gain?.n ?? 0,
-      medianGain: posterior ? posterior.medianDelta : gain ? gain.median : null,
-      meanGain: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,
-      gainCi: posterior ? posterior.ci : gain ? gain.ci : null,
-      prGreaterThanZero: posterior ? posterior.prGreaterThanZero : null,
-      prInRope: posterior ? posterior.prInRope : null,
-      mde: posterior ? posterior.mde : null,
-      onParetoFrontier: point?.onFrontier ?? false,
-      gate: gateDecision ? gateLabel(gateDecision) : void 0,
-      decision: classified.decision,
-      decisionReason: classified.reason
-    };
-  }).sort((a, b) => {
-    const decisionRank = decisionWeight(b.decision) - decisionWeight(a.decision);
-    if (decisionRank !== 0) return decisionRank;
-    return b.mean - a.mean;
-  });
-  const recommendation = buildRecommendation(candidates, {
-    comparator,
-    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,
-    rope,
-    minPairs,
-    preregistrationHash
-  });
-  const executiveSummary = buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, {
-    comparator,
-    split,
-    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,
-    preregistrationHash
-  });
-  const methodology = buildMethodology({
-    split,
-    comparator,
-    fdr,
-    minPairs,
-    rope,
-    confidence,
-    mdePower,
-    mdeAlpha
-  });
-  const runFingerprint = await hashJson(
-    canonicalize({
-      triples: runs.filter((r) => r.splitTag === split).map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, candidateId: r.candidateId, splitTag: r.splitTag })).sort((a, b) => a.runId.localeCompare(b.runId)),
-      comparator,
-      split
-    })
-  );
-  const markdown = renderResearchMarkdown({
-    title,
-    generatedAt,
-    split,
-    comparator,
-    rope,
-    runFingerprint,
-    preregistrationHash,
-    executiveSummary,
-    recommendation,
-    candidates,
-    summary,
-    pareto,
-    gains,
-    methodology,
-    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters
-  });
-  const html = renderResearchHtml(markdown, title);
-  return {
-    kind: "agent-eval-research-report",
-    title,
-    generatedAt,
-    split,
-    comparator,
-    runFingerprint,
-    preregistrationHash,
-    rope,
-    executiveSummary,
-    recommendation,
-    candidates,
-    summary,
-    charts: { pareto, gains },
-    methodology,
-    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,
-    markdown,
-    html
-  };
-}
-function buildMethodology(ctx) {
-  const assumptions = [
-    "Pairs are matched by (experimentId, scenarioId, seed); input order does not affect the comparison.",
-    "Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario \u2014 no mid-run distribution shift.",
-    `Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`
-  ];
-  if (ctx.rope) {
-    assumptions.push(
-      `The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of "no material difference."`
-    );
-  }
-  if (ctx.comparator === null) {
-    assumptions.push("No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.");
-  }
-  const methods = [
-    "Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and paired Cohen's dz via summaryTable.",
-    "Paired evidence summarised with a frequentist bootstrap CI on the median delta and a Dirichlet-weight Bayesian bootstrap for Pr(\u0394>0) and Pr(\u0394\u2208ROPE) on the mean delta.",
-    `Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at \u03B1=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,
-    "Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.",
-    "Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction."
-  ];
-  const alternatives = [
-    "Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.",
-    "Unpaired Mann\u2013Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.",
-    "Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report \u2014 preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.",
-    "Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics."
-  ];
-  const whenNotToApply = [
-    `Paired N below ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} on any candidate \u2014 the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,
-    "Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.",
-    "Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.",
-    "Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) \u2014 pair exchangeability is violated."
-  ];
-  const citations = [
-    "Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289\u2013300.",
-    "Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80\u201383.",
-    "Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1\u201326.",
-    "Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130\u2013134.",
-    "Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270\u2013280. (ROPE.)"
-  ];
-  return { assumptions, methods, alternatives, whenNotToApply, citations };
-}
-function formatRope(rope) {
-  return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`;
-}
-function classifyCandidate(row, ctx) {
-  if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) {
-    return { decision: "hold", reason: "Comparator baseline." };
-  }
-  if (ctx.gateDecision && !ctx.gateDecision.promote) {
-    const code = ctx.gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? "rejected";
-    return {
-      decision: "reject",
-      reason: `Held-out gate returned ${code}: ${ctx.gateDecision.reason}`
-    };
-  }
-  if (!ctx.comparator) {
-    return {
-      decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? "hold" : "needs_more_data",
-      reason: "No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call."
-    };
-  }
-  if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR) {
-    return {
-      decision: "needs_more_data",
-      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} for any paired inference.`
-    };
-  }
-  const ci = ctx.posterior.ci;
-  if (ctx.split === "search") {
-    return {
-      decision: "hold",
-      reason: "Search-split evidence is descriptive; release decisions require matched holdout runs."
-    };
-  }
-  if (ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) {
-    return {
-      decision: "equivalent",
-      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`
-    };
-  }
-  const gainPositive = ci.low > 0;
-  const gainNegative = ci.high < 0;
-  if (gainNegative) {
-    return {
-      decision: "reject",
-      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.`
-    };
-  }
-  if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) {
-    return {
-      decision: "needs_more_data",
-      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need \u2265 ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`
-    };
-  }
-  if (row.qValue !== null && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr && gainPositive) {
-    return {
-      decision: "promote",
-      reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} \u2264 ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(\u0394>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`
-    };
-  }
-  return {
-    decision: "hold",
-    reason: `Pr(\u0394>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`
-  };
-}
-function buildRecommendation(candidates, ctx) {
-  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator);
-  const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === "promote");
-  const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === "equivalent");
-  const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null;
-  const decision = bestPromote ? "promote" : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === "needs_more_data") ? "needs_more_data" : bestEquivalent ? "equivalent" : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === "hold") ? "hold" : "reject";
-  const rationale = [];
-  const risks = [];
-  const nextActions = [];
-  if (chosen) {
-    rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`);
-    if (chosen.gainCi) {
-      const probSummary = chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null ? `, Pr(\u0394>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}` : "";
-      rationale.push(
-        `Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`
-      );
-    }
-    if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) {
-      rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`);
-    }
-  }
-  if (!ctx.comparator) {
-    risks.push("No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.");
-    nextActions.push("Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.");
-  }
-  if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {
-    risks.push(
-      "No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection."
-    );
-    nextActions.push(
-      "Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it."
-    );
-  }
-  if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {
-    risks.push(
-      'No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish "equivalent" from "inconclusive".'
-    );
-    nextActions.push(
-      "Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold."
-    );
-  }
-  const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "needs_more_data");
-  if (inconclusive.length > 0) {
-    const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a);
-    risks.push(
-      `${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`
-    );
-    nextActions.push(
-      `Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`
-    );
-  }
-  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "reject");
-  if (rejected.length > 0) {
-    risks.push(
-      `${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`
-    );
-  }
-  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {
-    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0];
-    risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`);
-    nextActions.push("Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.");
-  }
-  if (decision === "promote") {
-    nextActions.push("Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.");
-  } else if (decision === "hold") {
-    nextActions.push("Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.");
-  } else if (decision === "equivalent") {
-    nextActions.push(
-      "Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds \u2014 equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one."
-    );
-  } else if (decision === "reject") {
-    nextActions.push(
-      "Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate."
-    );
-  }
-  return {
-    decision,
-    candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,
-    rationale,
-    risks,
-    nextActions
-  };
-}
-function buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, ctx) {
-  const lines = [];
-  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator);
-  lines.push(
-    `Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ""}.`
-  );
-  lines.push(
-    `Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ""}.`
-  );
-  const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "promote").length;
-  const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "hold").length;
-  const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "equivalent").length;
-  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "reject").length;
-  const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "needs_more_data").length;
-  lines.push(
-    `Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`
-  );
-  const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId);
-  if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(", ")}.`);
-  if (ctx.failureClusters) {
-    lines.push(
-      `Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`
-    );
-  }
-  lines.push(
-    ctx.preregistrationHash ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}\u2026` : "Analysis is post-hoc \u2014 no preregistration hash supplied."
-  );
-  return lines;
-}
-function renderResearchMarkdown(report) {
-  const lines = [];
-  lines.push(`# ${report.title}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`);
-  lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`);
-  lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? "not configured"}`);
-  lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : "not configured"}`);
-  lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \`${report.runFingerprint}\``);
-  lines.push(
-    `**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\`${report.preregistrationHash}\`` : "none"}`
-  );
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("## Executive Summary");
-  lines.push("");
-  for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("## Recommendation");
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`);
-  lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? "N/A"}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("### Rationale");
-  lines.push("");
-  for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("### Risks");
-  lines.push("");
-  for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length ? report.recommendation.risks : ["No material report-level risks detected."]) {
-    lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-  }
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("### Next Actions");
-  lines.push("");
-  for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("## Candidate Decision Table");
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push(
-    "| Candidate | Decision | Mean | \u0394\u0304 | Pr(\u0394>0) | q | dz | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |"
-  );
-  lines.push("|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|");
-  for (const c of report.candidates) {
-    const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? "-" : signed(c.meanDeltaVsComparator);
-    const prGt = c.prGreaterThanZero === null ? "-" : c.prGreaterThanZero.toFixed(3);
-    const q = c.qValue !== null ? c.qValue.toFixed(4) : "-";
-    const d = c.cohensD !== null ? c.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "-";
-    const gain = c.gainCi ? `[${fmt(c.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(c.gainCi.high)}]` : "-";
-    const mde = c.mde === null || !Number.isFinite(c.mde) ? "-" : fmt(c.mde);
-    lines.push(
-      `| ${c.candidateId} | ${c.decision} | ${fmt(c.mean)} | ${delta} | ${prGt} | ${q} | ${d} | ${c.pairedN} | ${gain} | ${mde} | ${c.onParetoFrontier ? "yes" : "no"} | ${c.gate ?? "-"} |`
-    );
-  }
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("## Statistical Summary");
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push(report.summary.markdown);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("## Methodology");
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("### Assumptions");
-  lines.push("");
-  for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("### Methods");
-  lines.push("");
-  for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("### Alternatives Considered");
-  lines.push("");
-  for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("### When NOT To Apply");
-  lines.push("");
-  for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("### Citations");
-  lines.push("");
-  for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("## Chart Specs");
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push(
-    "The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms."
-  );
-  lines.push("");
-  lines.push("```json");
-  lines.push(JSON.stringify({ pareto: report.pareto, gains: report.gains }, null, 2));
-  lines.push("```");
-  if (report.failureClusters) {
-    lines.push("");
-    lines.push("## Failure Clusters");
-    lines.push("");
-    lines.push("| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |");
-    lines.push("|---|---:|---:|---|---|");
-    for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) {
-      lines.push(
-        `| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? "-"} | ${escapePipes(c.exampleError ?? c.exampleRunId)} |`
-      );
-    }
-  }
-  return lines.join("\n");
-}
-function renderResearchHtml(markdown, title) {
-  const body = markdownToHtml(markdown);
-  return [
-    "<!doctype html>",
-    '<html lang="en">',
-    "<head>",
-    '<meta charset="utf-8">',
-    '<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">',
-    `<title>${escapeHtml(title)}</title>`,
-    "<style>",
-    'body{font-family:Inter,ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI",sans-serif;margin:0;color:#172026;background:#f7f8f8;}',
-    "main{max-width:1080px;margin:0 auto;padding:40px 24px 64px;background:#fff;min-height:100vh;}",
-    "h1{font-size:34px;line-height:1.15;margin:0 0 20px;}h2{margin-top:34px;border-top:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding-top:22px;}h3{margin-top:22px;}",
-    "p,li{line-height:1.55;}table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;margin:16px 0;font-size:14px;}th,td{border:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding:8px;text-align:left;}th{background:#eef2f2;}",
-    "code,pre{font-family:ui-monospace,SFMono-Regular,Menlo,monospace;}pre{overflow:auto;background:#111827;color:#f9fafb;padding:16px;border-radius:6px;}",
-    "</style>",
-    "</head>",
-    "<body><main>",
-    body,
-    "</main></body></html>"
-  ].join("\n");
-}
-function markdownToHtml(markdown) {
-  const lines = markdown.split("\n");
-  const html = [];
-  let inList = false;
-  let inCode = false;
-  let code = [];
-  let table = [];
-  const flushList = () => {
-    if (inList) {
-      html.push("</ul>");
-      inList = false;
-    }
-  };
-  const flushTable = () => {
-    if (table.length === 0) return;
-    html.push(renderMarkdownTable(table));
-    table = [];
-  };
-  for (const line of lines) {
-    if (line.startsWith("```")) {
-      if (inCode) {
-        html.push(`<pre><code>${escapeHtml(code.join("\n"))}</code></pre>`);
-        code = [];
-        inCode = false;
-      } else {
-        flushList();
-        flushTable();
-        inCode = true;
-      }
-      continue;
-    }
-    if (inCode) {
-      code.push(line);
-      continue;
-    }
-    if (line.startsWith("|")) {
-      flushList();
-      table.push(line);
-      continue;
-    }
-    flushTable();
-    if (line.startsWith("- ")) {
-      if (!inList) {
-        html.push("<ul>");
-        inList = true;
-      }
-      html.push(`<li>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</li>`);
-      continue;
-    }
-    flushList();
-    if (line.startsWith("# ")) html.push(`<h1>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</h1>`);
-    else if (line.startsWith("## ")) html.push(`<h2>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(3))}</h2>`);
-    else if (line.startsWith("### ")) html.push(`<h3>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(4))}</h3>`);
-    else if (line.trim() === "") html.push("");
-    else html.push(`<p>${inlineMarkdown(line)}</p>`);
-  }
-  flushList();
-  flushTable();
-  return html.join("\n");
-}
-function renderMarkdownTable(lines) {
-  const rows = lines.filter((line) => !/^\|[-:\s|]+\|$/.test(line)).map(
-    (line) => line.slice(1, -1).split("|").map((cell) => inlineMarkdown(cell.trim()))
-  );
-  if (rows.length === 0) return "";
-  const [head, ...body] = rows;
-  const th = head.map((cell) => `<th>${cell}</th>`).join("");
-  const trs = body.map((row) => `<tr>${row.map((cell) => `<td>${cell}</td>`).join("")}</tr>`).join("\n");
-  return `<table><thead><tr>${th}</tr></thead><tbody>${trs}</tbody></table>`;
-}
-function inlineMarkdown(s) {
-  return escapeHtml(s).replace(/\*\*([^*]+)\*\*/g, "<strong>$1</strong>");
-}
-function escapeHtml(s) {
-  return s.replace(/&/g, "&amp;").replace(/</g, "&lt;").replace(/>/g, "&gt;").replace(/"/g, "&quot;");
-}
-function escapePipes(s) {
-  return s.replace(/\|/g, "\\|");
-}
-function decisionWeight(decision) {
-  if (decision === "promote") return 5;
-  if (decision === "equivalent") return 4;
-  if (decision === "hold") return 3;
-  if (decision === "needs_more_data") return 2;
-  return 1;
-}
-function signed(x) {
-  return `${x >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${fmt(x)}`;
-}
-function avg(xs) {
-  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN;
-  return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length;
-}
-function medianOfSorted(sorted) {
-  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0;
-  const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
-  return sorted.length % 2 === 0 ? (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2 : sorted[mid];
-}
-function fmt(x) {
-  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x);
-  return x.toFixed(4);
-}
-
-export {
-  summaryTable,
-  paretoChart,
-  gainHistogram,
-  RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR,
-  researchReport
-};
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-VLOATJQ2.js.map