@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.128.2 → 0.130.0

package/dist/chunk-DPUHNQLN.js

@@ -1,232 +0,0 @@
-import {
-  mcnemar,
-  pairedBootstrap,
-  pairedRiskDifference,
-  wilcoxonSignedRank
-} from "./chunk-MHELPNRP.js";
-import {
-  ValidationError
-} from "./chunk-ONWEPEDO.js";
-
-// src/paired-arms.ts
-function pairArms(rows, opts) {
-  const { baselineArm, treatmentArm } = opts;
-  if (baselineArm === treatmentArm) {
-    throw new ValidationError(
-      `pairArms: baselineArm and treatmentArm are both '${baselineArm}' \u2014 an arm cannot be compared to itself`
-    );
-  }
-  const byArm = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  const armsSeen = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set();
-  for (const row of rows) {
-    armsSeen.add(row.arm);
-    if (row.arm !== baselineArm && row.arm !== treatmentArm) continue;
-    const byKey = byArm.get(row.arm) ?? /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-    const group = byKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? [];
-    group.push(row);
-    byKey.set(row.pairKey, group);
-    byArm.set(row.arm, byKey);
-  }
-  for (const arm of [baselineArm, treatmentArm]) {
-    if (!byArm.has(arm)) {
-      const seen = [...armsSeen].sort().join(", ") || "<none>";
-      throw new ValidationError(`pairArms: no rows for arm '${arm}' (arms present: ${seen})`);
-    }
-  }
-  const baselineByKey = byArm.get(baselineArm);
-  const treatmentByKey = byArm.get(treatmentArm);
-  const allKeys = [.../* @__PURE__ */ new Set([...baselineByKey.keys(), ...treatmentByKey.keys()])].sort();
-  const pairs = [];
-  const unpairedBaseline = [];
-  const unpairedTreatment = [];
-  for (const pairKey of allKeys) {
-    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairKey) ?? [];
-    const t = treatmentByKey.get(pairKey) ?? [];
-    if (b.length <= 1 && t.length <= 1) {
-      if (b.length === 1 && t.length === 1) {
-        const baseline = b[0];
-        const treatment = t[0];
-        if (baseline.repKey !== void 0 || treatment.repKey !== void 0) {
-          if (baseline.repKey === void 0 || treatment.repKey === void 0 || baseline.repKey !== treatment.repKey) {
-            unpairedBaseline.push(baseline);
-            unpairedTreatment.push(treatment);
-            continue;
-          }
-        }
-        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: 0, baseline, treatment });
-      } else {
-        unpairedBaseline.push(...b);
-        unpairedTreatment.push(...t);
-      }
-      continue;
-    }
-    const bByRep = indexByRepKey(b, pairKey, baselineArm);
-    const tByRep = indexByRepKey(t, pairKey, treatmentArm);
-    const repKeys = [.../* @__PURE__ */ new Set([...bByRep.keys(), ...tByRep.keys()])].sort();
-    let repIndex = 0;
-    for (const repKey of repKeys) {
-      const baseline = bByRep.get(repKey);
-      const treatment = tByRep.get(repKey);
-      if (baseline !== void 0 && treatment !== void 0) {
-        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: repIndex++, baseline, treatment });
-      } else if (baseline !== void 0) {
-        unpairedBaseline.push(baseline);
-      } else if (treatment !== void 0) {
-        unpairedTreatment.push(treatment);
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  return { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment };
-}
-function indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm) {
-  const byRep = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const row of group) {
-    if (row.repKey === void 0) {
-      throw new ValidationError(
-        `pairArms: pairKey '${pairKey}' has multiple reps in an arm, but a row in arm '${arm}' is missing repKey \u2014 multi-rep items require an explicit repKey on every row so reps pair by identity (pairing reps by outcome or by index would bias the paired statistics)`
-      );
-    }
-    if (byRep.has(row.repKey)) {
-      throw new ValidationError(
-        `pairArms: duplicate repKey '${row.repKey}' for pairKey '${pairKey}' in arm '${arm}' \u2014 (pairKey, repKey) must uniquely identify a rep within an arm`
-      );
-    }
-    byRep.set(row.repKey, row);
-  }
-  return byRep;
-}
-function comparePairedArms(rows, opts) {
-  const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(rows, opts);
-  let correctness = null;
-  const baselinePass = [];
-  const treatmentPass = [];
-  for (const pair of pairs) {
-    if (pair.baseline.pass === void 0 || pair.treatment.pass === void 0) continue;
-    baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0);
-    treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0);
-  }
-  if (baselinePass.length > 0) {
-    const mc = mcnemar(baselinePass, treatmentPass);
-    correctness = {
-      b10: mc.b,
-      b01: mc.c,
-      mcnemar: mc,
-      riskDifference: pairedRiskDifference(baselinePass, treatmentPass)
-    };
-  }
-  const metricNames = opts.metricNames ?? [
-    ...new Set(
-      pairs.flatMap((p) => [
-        ...Object.keys(p.baseline.metrics ?? {}),
-        ...Object.keys(p.treatment.metrics ?? {})
-      ])
-    )
-  ].sort();
-  const metricDeltas = metricNames.map((name) => {
-    const before = [];
-    const after = [];
-    let nMissing = 0;
-    for (const pair of pairs) {
-      const b = metricValue(pair.baseline, name);
-      const t = metricValue(pair.treatment, name);
-      if (b === void 0 || t === void 0) {
-        nMissing++;
-        continue;
-      }
-      before.push(b);
-      after.push(t);
-    }
-    const bootstrapCi = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts.bootstrap);
-    return {
-      name,
-      n: before.length,
-      nMissing,
-      medianDelta: bootstrapCi?.median ?? null,
-      meanDelta: bootstrapCi?.mean ?? null,
-      bootstrapCi,
-      wilcoxon: before.length === 0 ? null : wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after)
-    };
-  });
-  return {
-    nPairs: pairs.length,
-    nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,
-    nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,
-    correctness,
-    metricDeltas
-  };
-}
-function pairRunRecords(baselineRuns, treatmentRuns) {
-  const baselineRows = runRecordArmRows(baselineRuns, "baseline");
-  const treatmentRows = runRecordArmRows(treatmentRuns, "treatment");
-  validateRunRecordArmRows(baselineRows, "baseline");
-  validateRunRecordArmRows(treatmentRows, "treatment");
-  if (baselineRows.length === 0 || treatmentRows.length === 0) {
-    return {
-      pairs: [],
-      unpairedBaseline: baselineRows.map((row) => row.run),
-      unpairedTreatment: treatmentRows.map((row) => row.run)
-    };
-  }
-  const result = pairArms([...baselineRows, ...treatmentRows], {
-    baselineArm: "baseline",
-    treatmentArm: "treatment"
-  });
-  return {
-    pairs: result.pairs.map((pair) => {
-      const baseline = pair.baseline;
-      const treatment = pair.treatment;
-      return {
-        pairKey: pair.pairKey,
-        repKey: baseline.repKey,
-        baseline: baseline.run,
-        treatment: treatment.run
-      };
-    }),
-    unpairedBaseline: result.unpairedBaseline.map((row) => row.run),
-    unpairedTreatment: result.unpairedTreatment.map((row) => row.run)
-  };
-}
-function runRecordArmRows(runs, arm) {
-  return runs.map((run) => {
-    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId.trim();
-    if (!scenarioId) {
-      throw new ValidationError(
-        `pairRunRecords: run '${run.runId}' is missing scenarioId; paired comparisons require explicit scenario identity`
-      );
-    }
-    return {
-      pairKey: JSON.stringify([run.experimentId, scenarioId]),
-      repKey: String(run.seed),
-      arm,
-      run
-    };
-  });
-}
-function validateRunRecordArmRows(rows, arm) {
-  const byPairKey = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const row of rows) {
-    const group = byPairKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? [];
-    group.push(row);
-    byPairKey.set(row.pairKey, group);
-  }
-  for (const [pairKey, group] of byPairKey) {
-    if (group.length > 1) indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm);
-  }
-}
-function metricValue(row, name) {
-  const v = row.metrics?.[name];
-  if (v === void 0) return void 0;
-  if (!Number.isFinite(v)) {
-    throw new ValidationError(
-      `comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`
-    );
-  }
-  return v;
-}
-
-export {
-  pairArms,
-  comparePairedArms,
-  pairRunRecords
-};
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-DPUHNQLN.js.map

package/dist/chunk-DPUHNQLN.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/paired-arms.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Matched-pair arm comparison — \"did the treatment arm beat the baseline arm\n * on the SAME work items?\"\n *\n * An arm A/B over run records is only trustworthy when it is PAIRED: the same\n * task/scenario/seed evaluated under both arms, compared item-by-item, so\n * inter-item difficulty variance cancels instead of masquerading as an arm\n * effect. This module owns the two error-prone steps every consumer otherwise\n * hand-rolls:\n *\n *   1. Pairing — matching rows across arms by `pairKey` (and by `repKey`\n *      within multi-rep items), with leftovers REPORTED rather than silently\n *      dropped (a silently unbalanced pairing biases every paired statistic\n *      downstream). Pairing never keys on outcome content: matching reps by\n *      their outcomes deflates discordant-pair counts and makes McNemar\n *      anti-conservative, so reps pair only by (`pairKey`, `repKey`) identity.\n *   2. Composition — feeding the matched pairs to the correct paired\n *      estimators that already live in `statistics`: `mcnemar` +\n *      `pairedRiskDifference` for pass/fail, `pairedBootstrap` +\n *      `wilcoxonSignedRank` for continuous metrics. No statistic is\n *      re-implemented here.\n *\n * The row shape is deliberately structural — callers project a `RunRecord`\n * (or any record) into `{ pairKey, arm, pass?, metrics? }`. Arm names are\n * caller-supplied parameters; the module ships no domain literal.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport type { McNemarResult, PairedBootstrapOptions, PairedBootstrapResult } from './statistics'\nimport {\n  mcnemar,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedRiskDifference,\n  type RiskDifferenceResult,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n/** One arm observation of one work item. Structural on purpose: callers\n *  project their own record type (e.g. a `RunRecord`) into this shape. */\nexport interface PairedArmRow {\n  /** Matching key — rows sharing a `pairKey` across both arms form pairs\n   *  (typically the task/scenario/seed identity). */\n  pairKey: string\n  /** Rep identity within a `pairKey` (e.g. a seed or rep number). Required on\n   *  every row of a `pairKey` that has more than one rep in either arm; reps\n   *  then pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`) match, never on outcome\n   *  content. Optional when each arm has at most one rep of the item. */\n  repKey?: string\n  /** Arm label this row was produced under. */\n  arm: string\n  /** Binary outcome; omit when the comparison has no pass/fail notion. */\n  pass?: boolean\n  /** Named numeric measurements (score, cost, latency, …). */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Arm treated as the control side of every pair. */\n  baselineArm: string\n  /** Arm treated as the treatment side of every pair. */\n  treatmentArm: string\n}\n\n/** One matched (baseline, treatment) observation of the same work item. */\nexport interface MatchedPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  /** 0-based position of this pair within its `pairKey`, ordered by sorted\n   *  `repKey` (always 0 for a single-rep item). The rep identity itself is on\n   *  the rows (`baseline.repKey` / `treatment.repKey`). */\n  repIndex: number\n  baseline: PairedArmRow\n  treatment: PairedArmRow\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsResult {\n  /** Matched pairs, ordered by (`pairKey`, `repIndex`). */\n  pairs: MatchedPair[]\n  /** Baseline rows left without a treatment counterpart — reported, never\n   *  silently dropped. */\n  unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[]\n  /** Treatment rows left without a baseline counterpart. */\n  unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Match rows across two arms into (baseline, treatment) pairs by `pairKey`.\n *\n * A `pairKey` with at most one row per arm pairs directly, no `repKey`\n * needed. A `pairKey` with multiple reps in either arm requires `repKey` on\n * every one of its rows, and reps pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`)\n * match — pairing is keyed purely on row identity, never on outcome content\n * (outcome-keyed matching deflates discordant counts and biases McNemar), and\n * is therefore independent of input order. Reps whose `repKey` has no\n * counterpart in the other arm, and items present in only one arm, land in\n * the unpaired lists — reported, never truncated.\n *\n * Fail-loud: throws when either named arm has zero rows (an unknown arm\n * name would otherwise read as \"everything unpaired\"), when the two arm\n * names are equal, when a multi-rep `pairKey` has a row without `repKey`, or\n * when a (`pairKey`, arm) group repeats a `repKey` (the match would be\n * ambiguous).\n */\nexport function pairArms(rows: readonly PairedArmRow[], opts: PairArmsOptions): PairArmsResult {\n  const { baselineArm, treatmentArm } = opts\n  if (baselineArm === treatmentArm) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `pairArms: baselineArm and treatmentArm are both '${baselineArm}' — an arm cannot be compared to itself`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  // arm → pairKey → rows\n  const byArm = new Map<string, Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>>()\n  const armsSeen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    armsSeen.add(row.arm)\n    if (row.arm !== baselineArm && row.arm !== treatmentArm) continue\n    const byKey = byArm.get(row.arm) ?? new Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>()\n    const group = byKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n    byArm.set(row.arm, byKey)\n  }\n\n  for (const arm of [baselineArm, treatmentArm]) {\n    if (!byArm.has(arm)) {\n      const seen = [...armsSeen].sort().join(', ') || '<none>'\n      throw new ValidationError(`pairArms: no rows for arm '${arm}' (arms present: ${seen})`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  const baselineByKey = byArm.get(baselineArm)!\n  const treatmentByKey = byArm.get(treatmentArm)!\n\n  const allKeys = [...new Set([...baselineByKey.keys(), ...treatmentByKey.keys()])].sort()\n  const pairs: MatchedPair[] = []\n  const unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  const unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  for (const pairKey of allKeys) {\n    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n    const t = treatmentByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n\n    if (b.length <= 1 && t.length <= 1) {\n      if (b.length === 1 && t.length === 1) {\n        const baseline = b[0]!\n        const treatment = t[0]!\n        if (baseline.repKey !== undefined || treatment.repKey !== undefined) {\n          if (\n            baseline.repKey === undefined ||\n            treatment.repKey === undefined ||\n            baseline.repKey !== treatment.repKey\n          ) {\n            unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n            unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n            continue\n          }\n        }\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: 0, baseline, treatment })\n      } else {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(...b)\n        unpairedTreatment.push(...t)\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n\n    const bByRep = indexByRepKey(b, pairKey, baselineArm)\n    const tByRep = indexByRepKey(t, pairKey, treatmentArm)\n    const repKeys = [...new Set([...bByRep.keys(), ...tByRep.keys()])].sort()\n    let repIndex = 0\n    for (const repKey of repKeys) {\n      const baseline = bByRep.get(repKey)\n      const treatment = tByRep.get(repKey)\n      if (baseline !== undefined && treatment !== undefined) {\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: repIndex++, baseline, treatment })\n      } else if (baseline !== undefined) {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n      } else if (treatment !== undefined) {\n        unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment }\n}\n\n/** Index a multi-rep (pairKey, arm) group by `repKey`, enforcing that every\n *  row carries one and that no repKey repeats within the group. */\nfunction indexByRepKey(\n  group: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  pairKey: string,\n  arm: string,\n): Map<string, PairedArmRow> {\n  const byRep = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of group) {\n    if (row.repKey === undefined) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: pairKey '${pairKey}' has multiple reps in an arm, but a row in arm '${arm}' ` +\n          `is missing repKey — multi-rep items require an explicit repKey on every row so reps ` +\n          `pair by identity (pairing reps by outcome or by index would bias the paired statistics)`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (byRep.has(row.repKey)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: duplicate repKey '${row.repKey}' for pairKey '${pairKey}' in arm '${arm}' — ` +\n          `(pairKey, repKey) must uniquely identify a rep within an arm`,\n      )\n    }\n    byRep.set(row.repKey, row)\n  }\n  return byRep\n}\n\n/** Paired pass/fail comparison over the pairs where BOTH sides carry `pass`. */\nexport interface PairedCorrectness {\n  /** Discordant pairs where the treatment passed and the baseline failed. */\n  b10: number\n  /** Discordant pairs where the baseline passed and the treatment failed. */\n  b01: number\n  /** Exact McNemar significance over the paired outcomes (`b === b10`, `c === b01`). */\n  mcnemar: McNemarResult\n  /** Paired effect size: p(treatment) − p(baseline) with a paired-variance CI. */\n  riskDifference: RiskDifferenceResult\n}\n\n/** Paired delta summary for one named metric (delta = treatment − baseline). */\nexport interface PairedMetricDelta {\n  name: string\n  /** Pairs where BOTH sides carry a finite value for this metric. */\n  n: number\n  /** Pairs where at least one side does not carry the metric. */\n  nMissing: number\n  /** Median paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  medianDelta: number | null\n  /** Mean paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  meanDelta: number | null\n  /** Bootstrap CI on the paired delta (`pairedBootstrap`); null when\n   *  `n === 0` — a zero-width [0, 0] interval on no data would read as a\n   *  measured tight null. */\n  bootstrapCi: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n  /** Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the paired deltas; null when `n === 0`. */\n  wilcoxon: { w: number; p: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface ComparePairedArmsOptions extends PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Metrics to compare. Default: every metric name observed on any matched\n   *  pair, sorted. A name that appears on no pair is still reported (with\n   *  `n = 0`) so a misspelled metric is visible instead of vanishing. */\n  metricNames?: string[]\n  /** Passed through to `pairedBootstrap` — set `seed` for reproducible CIs. */\n  bootstrap?: PairedBootstrapOptions\n}\n\nexport interface PairedArmsComparison {\n  nPairs: number\n  nUnpairedBaseline: number\n  nUnpairedTreatment: number\n  /** null when no matched pair carries `pass` on both sides — a pass/fail\n   *  verdict over rows that never measured pass/fail would be fabricated. */\n  correctness: PairedCorrectness | null\n  metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Full matched-pair arm comparison: pair via {@link pairArms}, then compose\n * the paired estimators from `statistics` over the matched pairs.\n *\n * Correctness uses only the pairs where both sides carry `pass` (`mcnemar.n`\n * is that subset's size); each metric uses only the pairs where both sides\n * carry a finite value for it, with the remainder counted in `nMissing`.\n * Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout.\n *\n * Fail-loud: inherits {@link pairArms}'s unknown-arm throw, and throws on a\n * non-finite metric value — silently treating corrupt telemetry as \"metric\n * absent\" would misreport it as missing coverage.\n */\nexport function comparePairedArms(\n  rows: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  opts: ComparePairedArmsOptions,\n): PairedArmsComparison {\n  const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(rows, opts)\n\n  let correctness: PairedCorrectness | null = null\n  const baselinePass: number[] = []\n  const treatmentPass: number[] = []\n  for (const pair of pairs) {\n    if (pair.baseline.pass === undefined || pair.treatment.pass === undefined) continue\n    baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0)\n    treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0)\n  }\n  if (baselinePass.length > 0) {\n    const mc = mcnemar(baselinePass, treatmentPass)\n    correctness = {\n      b10: mc.b,\n      b01: mc.c,\n      mcnemar: mc,\n      riskDifference: pairedRiskDifference(baselinePass, treatmentPass),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const metricNames =\n    opts.metricNames ??\n    [\n      ...new Set(\n        pairs.flatMap((p) => [\n          ...Object.keys(p.baseline.metrics ?? {}),\n          ...Object.keys(p.treatment.metrics ?? {}),\n        ]),\n      ),\n    ].sort()\n\n  const metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[] = metricNames.map((name) => {\n    const before: number[] = []\n    const after: number[] = []\n    let nMissing = 0\n    for (const pair of pairs) {\n      const b = metricValue(pair.baseline, name)\n      const t = metricValue(pair.treatment, name)\n      if (b === undefined || t === undefined) {\n        nMissing++\n        continue\n      }\n      before.push(b)\n      after.push(t)\n    }\n    const bootstrapCi = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts.bootstrap)\n    return {\n      name,\n      n: before.length,\n      nMissing,\n      medianDelta: bootstrapCi?.median ?? null,\n      meanDelta: bootstrapCi?.mean ?? null,\n      bootstrapCi,\n      wilcoxon: before.length === 0 ? null : wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after),\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    nPairs: pairs.length,\n    nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,\n    nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,\n    correctness,\n    metricDeltas,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface MatchedRunRecordPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey: string\n  baseline: RunRecord\n  treatment: RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface PairRunRecordsResult {\n  pairs: MatchedRunRecordPair[]\n  unpairedBaseline: RunRecord[]\n  unpairedTreatment: RunRecord[]\n}\n\ninterface RunRecordArmRow extends PairedArmRow {\n  run: RunRecord\n  repKey: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Pair two RunRecord arms by the identity of the evaluated work:\n * `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * Falling back to array order, candidate id, or experiment id can compare\n * different tasks and fabricate lift. Duplicate identities throw.\n */\nexport function pairRunRecords(\n  baselineRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n  treatmentRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n): PairRunRecordsResult {\n  const baselineRows = runRecordArmRows(baselineRuns, 'baseline')\n  const treatmentRows = runRecordArmRows(treatmentRuns, 'treatment')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(baselineRows, 'baseline')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(treatmentRows, 'treatment')\n  if (baselineRows.length === 0 || treatmentRows.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      pairs: [],\n      unpairedBaseline: baselineRows.map((row) => row.run),\n      unpairedTreatment: treatmentRows.map((row) => row.run),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const result = pairArms([...baselineRows, ...treatmentRows], {\n    baselineArm: 'baseline',\n    treatmentArm: 'treatment',\n  })\n  return {\n    pairs: result.pairs.map((pair) => {\n      const baseline = pair.baseline as RunRecordArmRow\n      const treatment = pair.treatment as RunRecordArmRow\n      return {\n        pairKey: pair.pairKey,\n        repKey: baseline.repKey,\n        baseline: baseline.run,\n        treatment: treatment.run,\n      }\n    }),\n    unpairedBaseline: result.unpairedBaseline.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n    unpairedTreatment: result.unpairedTreatment.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction runRecordArmRows(runs: readonly RunRecord[], arm: string): RunRecordArmRow[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => {\n    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId.trim()\n    if (!scenarioId) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairRunRecords: run '${run.runId}' is missing scenarioId; paired comparisons require explicit scenario identity`,\n      )\n    }\n    return {\n      pairKey: JSON.stringify([run.experimentId, scenarioId]),\n      repKey: String(run.seed),\n      arm,\n      run,\n    }\n  })\n}\n\nfunction validateRunRecordArmRows(rows: readonly RunRecordArmRow[], arm: string): void {\n  const byPairKey = new Map<string, RunRecordArmRow[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    const group = byPairKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byPairKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n  }\n  for (const [pairKey, group] of byPairKey) {\n    if (group.length > 1) indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction metricValue(row: PairedArmRow, name: string): number | undefined {\n  const v = row.metrics?.[name]\n  if (v === undefined) return undefined\n  if (!Number.isFinite(v)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 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