@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.126.7 → 0.127.0

package/dist/chunk-J5SQWP6Y.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/llm-client.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * LLM client with graceful degrade.\n *\n * OpenAI-compatible `/v1/chat/completions` client with:\n *   - Exponential-backoff retry on 429 + 5xx gateway errors (502/503/504).\n *   - Retry on transient network errors (fetch failed, AbortError, ECONNRESET).\n *   - Graceful json_schema → json_object degrade on 400 with schema-reject body.\n *   - Fenced-JSON stripping (```json ... ```) for models that wrap structured output.\n *   - Configurable base URL + api key / bearer, works with LiteLLM proxies, OpenAI\n *     directly, cli-bridge subscriptions, and any router that speaks the spec.\n *\n * Usage:\n *   const { value, result } = await callLlmJson<MyType>(\n *     { model: 'gpt-4o', messages: [...], jsonSchema: { name: 'x', schema: {...} } },\n *     { baseUrl: 'https://router.tangle.tools/v1', apiKey: process.env.KEY },\n *   )\n *\n * This is THE llm-calling seam for agent-eval primitives that need structured\n * output (semantic concept judge, reviewer directives, critic scores). Primitives\n * that need free-form text use `callLlm` and parse output themselves.\n */\n\nimport {\n  type CostReceiptInput,\n  type CustomTokenPricing,\n  costForTokenPricing,\n  type MaximumCharge,\n} from './cost-ledger'\nimport { AgentEvalError, CaptureIntegrityError } from './errors'\nimport {\n  defaultProviderRedactor,\n  type ProviderRedactor,\n  providerFromBaseUrl,\n  type RawProviderEvent,\n  type RawProviderSink,\n} from './trace/raw-provider-sink'\n\n// ─── Types ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface LlmMessage {\n  role: 'system' | 'user' | 'assistant'\n  /**\n   * Either a plain text content string OR a multimodal content array\n   * (text + image_url parts) for vision-capable models.\n   */\n  content:\n    | string\n    | Array<\n        | { type: 'text'; text: string }\n        | { type: 'image_url'; image_url: { url: string; detail?: 'auto' | 'low' | 'high' } }\n      >\n}\n\nexport type LlmThinkingMode = 'enabled' | 'disabled'\n\nexport interface LlmCallRequest {\n  model: string\n  messages: LlmMessage[]\n  /** Optional JSON-mode response format (response_format: json_object). */\n  jsonMode?: boolean\n  /** Optional structured output via JSON Schema. Falls back to json_object on 400. */\n  jsonSchema?: { name: string; schema: Record<string, unknown> }\n  temperature?: number\n  maxTokens?: number\n  /** OpenAI-compatible reasoning mode. Omitted when the provider default should apply. */\n  thinking?: LlmThinkingMode\n  /** Per-call timeout, default 300s. */\n  timeoutMs?: number\n}\n\n/** Conservative priced bound for the exact text request sent to a provider.\n * Returns undefined when output or multimodal input is not bounded, causing a\n * capped CostLedger to reject the call before execution. Pass\n * `customTokenPricing` when package pricing does not cover the model or endpoint. */\nexport function maximumChargeForLlmRequest(\n  request: Pick<LlmCallRequest, 'model' | 'messages' | 'jsonSchema' | 'maxTokens' | 'thinking'>,\n  options: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): MaximumCharge | undefined {\n  if (request.maxTokens === undefined) return undefined\n  if (!Number.isInteger(request.maxTokens) || request.maxTokens <= 0) {\n    throw new RangeError(`maximumChargeForLlmRequest: maxTokens must be a positive integer`)\n  }\n  if (\n    request.messages.some(\n      (message) =>\n        Array.isArray(message.content) && message.content.some((part) => part.type === 'image_url'),\n    )\n  ) {\n    return undefined\n  }\n\n  const attempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(options.maxRetries)\n  const forceJsonObject = options.jsonSchemaTransport === 'json-object'\n  // A byte-level tokenizer cannot emit more input tokens than request bytes.\n  // Pricing the complete body also covers role/schema framing omitted from content-only estimates.\n  const requestBytes = new TextEncoder().encode(\n    JSON.stringify(buildBody(request, forceJsonObject, options.thinking)),\n  ).byteLength\n  // A rejected response schema can trigger one JSON-mode batch with the same output limit.\n  const batches = request.jsonSchema && !forceJsonObject ? 2 : 1\n  const usage = {\n    inputTokens: requestBytes * attempts * batches,\n    outputTokens: request.maxTokens * attempts * batches,\n  }\n  return options.customTokenPricing\n    ? { customTokenPricing: options.customTokenPricing, ...usage }\n    : { model: request.model, ...usage }\n}\n\nexport interface LlmUsage {\n  promptTokens: number\n  completionTokens: number\n  totalTokens: number\n  /** False when the provider omitted or malformed prompt/completion usage. */\n  captured?: boolean\n  /** Reasoning-token subset of completionTokens, when reported. */\n  reasoningTokens?: number\n  /** Proxies populate this when prompt caching is on. */\n  cachedPromptTokens?: number\n}\n\nexport interface LlmCallResult {\n  /** The text content of the first choice. Empty string if none. */\n  content: string\n  usage: LlmUsage\n  /**\n   * Cost in USD. Uses the provider's reported cost when present, otherwise\n   * caller-supplied token pricing. `null` when neither is available.\n   */\n  costUsd: number | null\n  /** Model name actually used (echoed from response). */\n  model: string\n  /** Wall-clock duration of the HTTP call (last attempt, if retried). */\n  durationMs: number\n  /**\n   * `finish_reason` echoed from the first choice (`stop`, `length`,\n   * `content_filter`, `tool_calls`, ...). `null` when the provider omits it.\n   * Exposed so a free-form `callLlm` caller CAN detect a truncated answer\n   * (`length`) instead of treating a cut-off completion as complete. Note:\n   * `callLlm` does not itself reject on it — acting on this signal is the\n   * caller's responsibility (in-repo free-form drivers do not yet enforce it).\n   */\n  finishReason?: string | null\n  /**\n   * True when `content.trim()` is empty. An empty completion is a silent zero\n   * for free-form `callLlm` callers; this flag is the signal a caller can\n   * inspect to fail loud rather than proceed on an empty string. `callLlm`\n   * surfaces it but does not throw on it.\n   */\n  contentEmpty?: boolean\n  /** Raw response body. */\n  raw: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport type LlmCallMetadata = Pick<LlmCallResult, 'usage' | 'costUsd' | 'model' | 'durationMs'>\n\n/** Convert a provider result into the canonical paid-call receipt input. */\nexport function costReceiptFromLlm(\n  result: LlmCallResult,\n  customTokenPricing?: CustomTokenPricing,\n): CostReceiptInput {\n  const cachedTokens = result.usage.cachedPromptTokens ?? 0\n  const inputTokens = Math.max(0, result.usage.promptTokens - cachedTokens)\n  const configuredCostUsd =\n    result.costUsd === null && customTokenPricing && result.usage.captured !== false\n      ? costForTokenPricing(customTokenPricing, {\n          inputTokens,\n          ...(cachedTokens > 0 ? { cachedTokens } : {}),\n          outputTokens: result.usage.completionTokens,\n        })\n      : undefined\n  return {\n    model: result.model,\n    inputTokens,\n    outputTokens: result.usage.completionTokens,\n    reasoningTokens: result.usage.reasoningTokens,\n    cachedTokens: cachedTokens > 0 ? cachedTokens : undefined,\n    actualCostUsd: result.costUsd ?? configuredCostUsd,\n    usageUnknown: result.usage.captured === false,\n  }\n}\n\n/** Structured-response failures retain their completed provider receipt. */\nexport function costReceiptFromLlmError(\n  error: Error,\n  customTokenPricing?: CustomTokenPricing,\n): CostReceiptInput | undefined {\n  return error instanceof LlmResponseError\n    ? costReceiptFromLlm(error.result, customTokenPricing)\n    : undefined\n}\n\nexport class LlmCallError extends AgentEvalError {\n  constructor(\n    message: string,\n    public readonly status: number,\n    public readonly body: string,\n    public readonly model: string,\n  ) {\n    super('judge', message)\n  }\n}\n\n/** A provider response completed and incurred measurable usage, but its content\n *  could not satisfy the caller's response contract. The response envelope is\n *  retained so accounting can commit the receipt before the error propagates. */\nexport class LlmResponseError extends AgentEvalError {\n  constructor(\n    message: string,\n    public readonly result: LlmCallResult,\n    options?: { cause?: unknown },\n  ) {\n    super('judge', message, options)\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface LlmClientOptions {\n  /** Base URL (without trailing slash). Must end at the `/v1` prefix. */\n  baseUrl?: string\n  /** Bearer token — either `apiKey` or `bearer` populates `Authorization: Bearer ...`. */\n  apiKey?: string\n  bearer?: string\n  /** Override for the `Authorization` header (e.g. `X-Auth: ...`). Takes precedence over apiKey/bearer. */\n  authHeader?: { name: string; value: string }\n  /** Stable provider idempotency key, reused across retries of this logical call. */\n  idempotencyKey?: string\n  /** Default timeout in ms. Per-call can override. */\n  defaultTimeoutMs?: number\n  /**\n   * Caller-supplied abort signal — e.g. a campaign-wide cancel. Linked to\n   * each attempt's per-attempt timeout controller, so aborting it cancels\n   * the in-flight fetch. A caller abort is FATAL: it is not retried even\n   * though an AbortError otherwise matches the transient patterns.\n   */\n  signal?: AbortSignal\n  /**\n   * Cross-attempt wall-clock budget in ms, measured from the first attempt.\n   * Before launching each attempt the loop checks the remaining budget and\n   * stops retrying once it is exhausted, rather than waiting the full\n   * per-attempt timeout on every retry. Bounds total time independent of\n   * total attempts × `timeoutMs`.\n   */\n  deadlineMs?: number\n  /** Total provider attempts. Legacy option name; default 3 (1 initial + 2 retries). */\n  maxRetries?: number\n  /** Token rates used when the provider omits cost or package pricing does not cover the model. */\n  customTokenPricing?: CustomTokenPricing\n  /**\n   * Transport for requests that declare `jsonSchema`. `native` sends\n   * `response_format: json_schema`; `json-object` sends the broadly supported\n   * JSON mode and relies on the caller to include the schema in model-visible\n   * instructions. Default: `native`.\n   */\n  jsonSchemaTransport?: 'native' | 'json-object'\n  /**\n   * JSON payload parsing policy. `extract` accepts fenced or prose-prefixed JSON.\n   * `exact` requires the complete response content to be one JSON value.\n   * Default: `extract`.\n   */\n  jsonPayloadMode?: 'extract' | 'exact'\n  /** Default provider reasoning mode. A per-call request value takes precedence. */\n  thinking?: LlmThinkingMode\n  /** Fetch implementation — defaults to global `fetch`. Override for custom transport (e.g. tests). */\n  fetch?: typeof fetch\n  /**\n   * Optional raw HTTP capture sink. When provided, every request, response,\n   * and error (across all retry attempts) is recorded to the sink, with auth\n   * headers and credential-shaped body fields redacted by default. This is\n   * the layer-1 forensics primitive: structured `LlmSpan`s record intent,\n   * raw events record what actually crossed the wire.\n   */\n  rawSink?: RawProviderSink\n  /**\n   * Logical provider id attached to raw events. When omitted, derived from\n   * `baseUrl` via `providerFromBaseUrl`.\n   */\n  provider?: string\n  /** Trace context attached to raw events; populated by emitter-aware callers. */\n  traceContext?: { runId?: string; spanId?: string }\n  /** Override the redaction strategy for this call. Defaults to `defaultProviderRedactor`. */\n  redactor?: ProviderRedactor\n}\n\n// ─── Internals ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nconst DEFAULT_BASE_URL = 'https://router.tangle.tools/v1'\n// Flagship / reasoning models routinely take several minutes on large prompts (a\n// reflection over many failures, a long tool transcript). A tight cap aborts a\n// legitimately-slow but healthy call — and because every retry attempt re-uses\n// the same window, such a model aborts on ALL attempts and the loop throws. The\n// default is generous enough to let those complete, bounded enough that a truly\n// hung call still fails over after retries, and tunable per deployment via\n// TANGLE_LLM_TIMEOUT_MS. Per-call `req.timeoutMs` / `opts.defaultTimeoutMs`\n// still win for callers that know their model's latency.\nconst DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS = Number(process.env.TANGLE_LLM_TIMEOUT_MS) || 300_000\nconst DEFAULT_MAX_RETRIES = Number(process.env.TANGLE_LLM_MAX_RETRIES) || 3\n\nfunction resolveMaximumAttempts(configured: number | undefined): number {\n  const attempts = configured ?? DEFAULT_MAX_RETRIES\n  if (!Number.isInteger(attempts) || attempts <= 0) {\n    throw new RangeError('LLM maximum attempts must be a positive integer')\n  }\n  return attempts\n}\n\nfunction providerTokenCount(value: unknown): number | undefined {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isSafeInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nconst RETRYABLE_STATUS = new Set([429, 502, 503, 504])\n\n/**\n * Transient transport/network error signatures, matched against an error's\n * name, message, and `code`. Covers fetch/undici network failures, aborts\n * and timeouts, and — critically — HTTP/2 transport faults a keep-alive\n * connection raises mid-response: `terminated`, `NGHTTP2_INTERNAL_ERROR`,\n * `UND_ERR_*`, `other side closed`. Those last ones carry no clean HTTP\n * status; unrecognised, they escape the retry loop and surface as an\n * uncaught rejection.\n */\nconst TRANSIENT_ERROR_PATTERNS: readonly RegExp[] = [\n  /AbortError/i,\n  /TimeoutError/i,\n  /this operation was aborted/i,\n  /fetch failed/i,\n  /ECONNRESET/i,\n  /ETIMEDOUT/i,\n  /EAI_AGAIN/i,\n  /socket hang up/i,\n  /stream.*ended.*unexpectedly/i,\n  /terminated/i,\n  /other side closed/i,\n  /NGHTTP2/i,\n  /UND_ERR/i,\n]\n\n/**\n * True when an error is a transient transport/network fault worth retrying,\n * as opposed to a deterministic failure (4xx schema reject, JSON parse) that\n * a retry cannot fix. Inspects `LlmCallError.status`, then the error's\n * name/message/code, then recurses into `error.cause` — undici nests the\n * real socket fault one or more levels under `.cause`.\n *\n * This is THE retry classifier for the package: `callLlm` and\n * `withJudgeRetry` both route through it, so a connection-class error is\n * treated identically whether it surfaces in the HTTP client or a\n * TCloud-backed judge.\n */\nexport function isTransientLlmError(err: unknown): boolean {\n  return classifyTransient(err, 0)\n}\n\nfunction classifyTransient(err: unknown, depth: number): boolean {\n  if (err instanceof LlmCallError) return RETRYABLE_STATUS.has(err.status)\n  if (!(err instanceof Error)) return false\n  // Foreign errors (e.g. a TCloud judge SDK error) can carry a numeric HTTP\n  // status without being an LlmCallError — a retryable status is decisive.\n  const status = (err as { status?: unknown }).status\n  if (typeof status === 'number' && RETRYABLE_STATUS.has(status)) return true\n  const code = (err as { code?: unknown }).code\n  const haystack = `${err.name}\\n${err.message}\\n${typeof code === 'string' ? code : ''}`\n  if (TRANSIENT_ERROR_PATTERNS.some((p) => p.test(haystack))) return true\n  const cause = (err as { cause?: unknown }).cause\n  if (depth < 4 && cause instanceof Error && cause !== err) {\n    return classifyTransient(cause, depth + 1)\n  }\n  return false\n}\n\nfunction parseRetryAfter(headers: Headers): number | null {\n  const h = headers.get('retry-after')\n  if (!h) return null\n  const asNumber = Number(h)\n  if (Number.isFinite(asNumber) && asNumber > 0) return asNumber * 1000\n  const asDate = Date.parse(h)\n  if (Number.isFinite(asDate)) return Math.max(0, asDate - Date.now())\n  return null\n}\n\n/** Exponential backoff: 500ms, 1s, 2s, 4s, ... capped at 16s. Attempt is 0-indexed. */\nexport function backoffMs(attempt: number): number {\n  return Math.min(500 * 2 ** attempt, 16_000)\n}\n\nfunction buildHeaders(opts: LlmClientOptions): Record<string, string> {\n  const headers: Record<string, string> = {\n    'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n    Accept: 'application/json',\n  }\n  if (opts.authHeader) {\n    headers[opts.authHeader.name] = opts.authHeader.value\n  } else if (opts.bearer || opts.apiKey) {\n    headers.Authorization = `Bearer ${opts.bearer ?? opts.apiKey}`\n  }\n  if (opts.idempotencyKey) headers['Idempotency-Key'] = opts.idempotencyKey\n  return headers\n}\n\nfunction isSchemaRejection(status: number, body: string): boolean {\n  if (status !== 400) return false\n  const lower = body.toLowerCase()\n  return (\n    lower.includes('response_format') ||\n    lower.includes('json_schema') ||\n    lower.includes('is unavailable') ||\n    lower.includes('not supported')\n  )\n}\n\nfunction buildBody(\n  req: LlmCallRequest,\n  forceJsonObject: boolean,\n  defaultThinking?: LlmThinkingMode,\n): Record<string, unknown> {\n  const body: Record<string, unknown> = {\n    model: req.model,\n    messages: req.messages,\n    temperature: req.temperature ?? 0,\n  }\n  if (req.maxTokens != null) {\n    if (usesMaxCompletionTokens(req.model)) body.max_completion_tokens = req.maxTokens\n    else body.max_tokens = req.maxTokens\n  }\n  const thinking = req.thinking ?? defaultThinking\n  if (thinking !== undefined) {\n    body.thinking = { type: thinking }\n  }\n\n  if (req.jsonSchema && !forceJsonObject) {\n    body.response_format = {\n      type: 'json_schema',\n      json_schema: { name: req.jsonSchema.name, schema: req.jsonSchema.schema, strict: true },\n    }\n  } else if (req.jsonMode || req.jsonSchema) {\n    body.response_format = { type: 'json_object' }\n  }\n\n  return body\n}\n\nfunction usesMaxCompletionTokens(model: string): boolean {\n  return /^gpt-5(?:[.-]|$)/i.test(model)\n}\n\nasync function sleep(ms: number): Promise<void> {\n  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms))\n}\n\n/**\n * Combine the per-attempt timeout signal with an optional caller signal into\n * one signal the fetch listens on. Prefers the native `AbortSignal.any`; falls\n * back to manual wiring on runtimes that predate it. The caller signal is also\n * propagated to the timeout controller so aborting it cancels the in-flight\n * fetch immediately.\n */\nfunction linkSignals(timeoutController: AbortController, caller?: AbortSignal): AbortSignal {\n  if (!caller) return timeoutController.signal\n  if (typeof (AbortSignal as { any?: unknown }).any === 'function') {\n    return AbortSignal.any([timeoutController.signal, caller])\n  }\n  if (caller.aborted) {\n    timeoutController.abort()\n  } else {\n    caller.addEventListener('abort', () => timeoutController.abort(), { once: true })\n  }\n  return timeoutController.signal\n}\n\n/** True once the cross-attempt wall-clock budget (if any) is exhausted. */\nfunction deadlineExceeded(start: number, deadlineMs: number | undefined): boolean {\n  return deadlineMs != null && Date.now() - start >= deadlineMs\n}\n\n// ─── Public API ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Strip a ```json / ``` code fence if the model emitted one.\n * Idempotent for naked JSON. Some models (claude-code via router, certain\n * deepseek models) wrap output even under json_object.\n */\nexport function stripFencedJson(raw: string): string {\n  const trimmed = raw.trim()\n  const m = trimmed.match(/^```(?:json)?\\s*\\n?([\\s\\S]*?)\\n?```\\s*$/)\n  return m ? m[1]!.trim() : trimmed\n}\n\nexport function extractJsonPayload(raw: string): string {\n  const stripped = stripFencedJson(raw)\n  try {\n    JSON.parse(stripped)\n    return stripped\n  } catch {\n    // A response that declares a JSON root must parse as that complete root.\n    // Scanning onward could turn a truncated object into one of its valid nested\n    // arrays or objects and silently change the response schema.\n    if (stripped.startsWith('{') || stripped.startsWith('[')) return stripped\n  }\n\n  // Only prose-leading responses may contain a recoverable JSON payload.\n  const starts = [...stripped.matchAll(/[[{]/g)]\n    .map((match) => match.index)\n    .filter((index) => index != null)\n  for (const start of starts) {\n    const candidate = extractBalancedJson(stripped, start)\n    if (!candidate) continue\n    try {\n      JSON.parse(candidate)\n      return candidate\n    } catch {\n      // Keep scanning; earlier braces may belong to prose.\n    }\n  }\n\n  return stripped\n}\n\nfunction extractBalancedJson(input: string, start: number): string | null {\n  const opener = input[start]\n  const closer = opener === '{' ? '}' : opener === '[' ? ']' : null\n  if (!closer) return null\n\n  const stack: string[] = [closer]\n  let isInString = false\n  let isEscaped = false\n\n  for (let i = start + 1; i < input.length; i++) {\n    const char = input[i]!\n    if (isEscaped) {\n      isEscaped = false\n      continue\n    }\n    if (char === '\\\\') {\n      isEscaped = isInString\n      continue\n    }\n    if (char === '\"') {\n      isInString = !isInString\n      continue\n    }\n    if (isInString) continue\n\n    if (char === '{') stack.push('}')\n    else if (char === '[') stack.push(']')\n    else if (char === stack[stack.length - 1]) {\n      stack.pop()\n      if (stack.length === 0) return input.slice(start, i + 1)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return null\n}\n\n/**\n * Low-level call. Returns raw content + usage + cost. Retries on transient\n * failures; does NOT degrade schema here — callers that want graceful\n * degrade use `callLlmJson`.\n */\nexport async function callLlm(\n  req: LlmCallRequest,\n  opts: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): Promise<LlmCallResult> {\n  const baseUrl = (opts.baseUrl ?? DEFAULT_BASE_URL).replace(/\\/+$/, '')\n  const url = `${baseUrl}/chat/completions`\n  const endpoint = '/chat/completions'\n  const timeoutMs = req.timeoutMs ?? opts.defaultTimeoutMs ?? DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS\n  const maximumAttempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(opts.maxRetries)\n  const fetchFn = opts.fetch ?? globalThis.fetch\n  const headers = buildHeaders(opts)\n  const provider = opts.provider ?? providerFromBaseUrl(baseUrl)\n  const sink = opts.rawSink\n  const redactor = opts.redactor ?? defaultProviderRedactor\n  const traceContext = opts.traceContext\n  const callerSignal = opts.signal\n  const deadlineMs = opts.deadlineMs\n  const deadlineStart = Date.now()\n  if (opts.customTokenPricing) {\n    costForTokenPricing(opts.customTokenPricing, { inputTokens: 0, outputTokens: 0 })\n  }\n\n  let lastErr: unknown\n  for (let attempt = 0; attempt < maximumAttempts; attempt++) {\n    // A caller cancel is fatal — never retried. Checking before each attempt\n    // means an already-aborted signal short-circuits without firing fetch.\n    if (callerSignal?.aborted) {\n      throw new DOMException('callLlm aborted by caller signal', 'AbortError')\n    }\n    // Stop retrying once the cross-attempt budget is spent rather than burning\n    // a full per-attempt timeout on each remaining retry.\n    if (attempt > 0 && deadlineExceeded(deadlineStart, deadlineMs)) {\n      throw lastErr instanceof Error ? lastErr : new Error(String(lastErr))\n    }\n    const controller = new AbortController()\n    const attemptSignal = linkSignals(controller, callerSignal)\n    const timeoutHandle = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeoutMs)\n    const started = Date.now()\n    const requestBody = buildBody(req, opts.jsonSchemaTransport === 'json-object', opts.thinking)\n    let attemptErrorRecorded = false\n    if (sink) {\n      await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n        eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n        runId: traceContext?.runId,\n        spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n        provider,\n        model: req.model,\n        endpoint,\n        baseUrl,\n        attemptIndex: attempt,\n        direction: 'request',\n        timestamp: started,\n        requestHeaders: headers,\n        requestBody,\n        redactedFields: [],\n      })\n    }\n\n    try {\n      const res = await fetchFn(url, {\n        method: 'POST',\n        headers,\n        body: JSON.stringify(requestBody),\n        signal: attemptSignal,\n      })\n      clearTimeout(timeoutHandle)\n      const responseHeaders = sink ? headersToObject(res.headers) : undefined\n\n      if (!res.ok) {\n        const body = await res.text()\n        if (sink) {\n          await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n            eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n            runId: traceContext?.runId,\n            spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n            provider,\n            model: req.model,\n            endpoint,\n            baseUrl,\n            attemptIndex: attempt,\n            direction: 'error',\n            timestamp: Date.now(),\n            durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n            statusCode: res.status,\n            responseHeaders,\n            responseBody: body,\n            errorMessage: `HTTP ${res.status}`,\n            redactedFields: [],\n          })\n          attemptErrorRecorded = true\n        }\n        const err = new LlmCallError(\n          `LLM call ${res.status}: ${body.slice(0, 300)}`,\n          res.status,\n          body,\n          req.model,\n        )\n        if (\n          RETRYABLE_STATUS.has(res.status) &&\n          attempt < maximumAttempts - 1 &&\n          !deadlineExceeded(deadlineStart, deadlineMs)\n        ) {\n          lastErr = err\n          const retryAfter = parseRetryAfter(res.headers)\n          await sleep(retryAfter ?? backoffMs(attempt))\n          continue\n        }\n        throw err\n      }\n\n      const text = await res.text()\n      let json: Record<string, unknown>\n      try {\n        json = JSON.parse(text) as Record<string, unknown>\n      } catch (parseErr) {\n        if (sink) {\n          await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n            eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n            runId: traceContext?.runId,\n            spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n            provider,\n            model: req.model,\n            endpoint,\n            baseUrl,\n            attemptIndex: attempt,\n            direction: 'error',\n            timestamp: Date.now(),\n            durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n            statusCode: res.status,\n            responseHeaders,\n            responseBody: text,\n            errorMessage: `non-JSON response: ${parseErr instanceof Error ? parseErr.message : String(parseErr)}`,\n            redactedFields: [],\n          })\n          attemptErrorRecorded = true\n        }\n        throw parseErr\n      }\n      if (sink) {\n        await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n          eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n          runId: traceContext?.runId,\n          spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n          provider,\n          model: req.model,\n          endpoint,\n          baseUrl,\n          attemptIndex: attempt,\n          direction: 'response',\n          timestamp: Date.now(),\n          durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n          statusCode: res.status,\n          responseHeaders,\n          responseBody: json,\n          redactedFields: [],\n        })\n      }\n      const choice = (\n        json.choices as\n          | Array<{ message?: { content?: string }; finish_reason?: string | null }>\n          | undefined\n      )?.[0]\n      const usageRaw =\n        json.usage && typeof json.usage === 'object' && !Array.isArray(json.usage)\n          ? (json.usage as Record<string, unknown>)\n          : undefined\n      const promptTokens = providerTokenCount(usageRaw?.prompt_tokens)\n      const completionTokens = providerTokenCount(usageRaw?.completion_tokens)\n      const totalTokens = providerTokenCount(usageRaw?.total_tokens)\n      const completionDetails =\n        usageRaw?.completion_tokens_details &&\n        typeof usageRaw.completion_tokens_details === 'object' &&\n        !Array.isArray(usageRaw.completion_tokens_details)\n          ? (usageRaw.completion_tokens_details as Record<string, unknown>)\n          : undefined\n      const reasoningRaw = completionDetails?.reasoning_tokens\n      const reasoningTokens =\n        reasoningRaw === undefined ? undefined : providerTokenCount(reasoningRaw)\n      const cachedRaw =\n        usageRaw?.prompt_tokens_details &&\n        typeof usageRaw.prompt_tokens_details === 'object' &&\n        !Array.isArray(usageRaw.prompt_tokens_details)\n          ? (usageRaw.prompt_tokens_details as Record<string, unknown>).cached_tokens\n          : undefined\n      const cachedPromptTokens = cachedRaw === undefined ? undefined : providerTokenCount(cachedRaw)\n      const usageCaptured =\n        promptTokens !== undefined &&\n        completionTokens !== undefined &&\n        (reasoningRaw === undefined ||\n          (reasoningTokens !== undefined && reasoningTokens <= completionTokens)) &&\n        (cachedRaw === undefined ||\n          (cachedPromptTokens !== undefined && cachedPromptTokens <= promptTokens)) &&\n        (totalTokens === undefined || totalTokens === promptTokens + completionTokens)\n      const costFromProxy = (json._response_cost ?? json.cost_usd) as number | undefined\n      const content = choice?.message?.content ?? ''\n\n      const configuredCost =\n        typeof costFromProxy !== 'number' && usageCaptured && opts.customTokenPricing\n          ? costForTokenPricing(opts.customTokenPricing, {\n              inputTokens: promptTokens! - (cachedPromptTokens ?? 0),\n              ...(cachedPromptTokens ? { cachedTokens: cachedPromptTokens } : {}),\n              outputTokens: completionTokens!,\n            })\n          : undefined\n\n      return {\n        content,\n        finishReason: choice?.finish_reason ?? null,\n        contentEmpty: content.trim().length === 0,\n        usage: {\n          promptTokens: promptTokens ?? 0,\n          completionTokens: completionTokens ?? 0,\n          totalTokens: totalTokens ?? (promptTokens ?? 0) + (completionTokens ?? 0),\n          captured: usageCaptured,\n          reasoningTokens,\n          cachedPromptTokens,\n        },\n        costUsd: typeof costFromProxy === 'number' ? costFromProxy : (configuredCost ?? null),\n        model: (json.model as string) ?? req.model,\n        durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n        raw: json,\n      }\n    } catch (err) {\n      clearTimeout(timeoutHandle)\n      lastErr = err\n      // A caller cancel is fatal even though an AbortError matches the\n      // transient patterns — a cancelled call must surface immediately, not\n      // be retried against the same dead intent.\n      if (callerSignal?.aborted) {\n        if (sink && !attemptErrorRecorded) {\n          await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n            eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n            runId: traceContext?.runId,\n            spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n            provider,\n            model: req.model,\n            endpoint,\n            baseUrl,\n            attemptIndex: attempt,\n            direction: 'error',\n            timestamp: Date.now(),\n            durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n            errorMessage: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n            redactedFields: [],\n          })\n        }\n        throw err\n      }\n      if (sink && !attemptErrorRecorded) {\n        // Record only if neither the !res.ok branch nor the JSON.parse catch\n        // already produced an error event for this attempt. Covers network\n        // failures, timeouts, and aborts.\n        await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n          eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n          runId: traceContext?.runId,\n          spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n          provider,\n          model: req.model,\n          endpoint,\n          baseUrl,\n          attemptIndex: attempt,\n          direction: 'error',\n          timestamp: Date.now(),\n          durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n          errorMessage: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n          redactedFields: [],\n        })\n      }\n      if (\n        attempt < maximumAttempts - 1 &&\n        isTransientLlmError(err) &&\n        !deadlineExceeded(deadlineStart, deadlineMs)\n      ) {\n        await sleep(backoffMs(attempt))\n        continue\n      }\n      throw err\n    }\n  }\n  throw lastErr instanceof Error ? lastErr : new Error(String(lastErr))\n}\n\nasync function recordRaw(\n  sink: RawProviderSink,\n  redactor: ProviderRedactor,\n  event: RawProviderEvent,\n): Promise<void> {\n  // Errors from sinks must not crash the LLM call. Forensic capture is\n  // best-effort; the structured trace is the system of record.\n  try {\n    await sink.record(redactor(event))\n  } catch {\n    // Intentionally swallowed.\n  }\n}\n\nfunction headersToObject(h: Headers): Record<string, string> {\n  const out: Record<string, string> = {}\n  h.forEach((value, key) => {\n    out[key] = value\n  })\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction cryptoEventId(): string {\n  if (typeof globalThis.crypto?.randomUUID === 'function') return globalThis.crypto.randomUUID()\n  return `${Date.now().toString(36)}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 10)}`\n}\n\n/**\n * Structured-output call. Returns parsed JSON plus the raw result envelope.\n * Degrades `jsonSchema` → `jsonMode` on a 400 that names the schema param —\n * critical for deepseek-v3/v4, kimi-k2.6, and other models that don't accept\n * the `response_format.json_schema` shape but DO accept `json_object`.\n */\nexport async function callLlmJson<T = unknown>(\n  req: LlmCallRequest,\n  opts: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): Promise<{ value: T; result: LlmCallResult }> {\n  const result = await callLlmStructured(req, opts)\n  const value = parseJsonResult<T>(result, opts.jsonPayloadMode ?? 'extract')\n  return { value, result }\n}\n\n/** Shared schema-to-JSON-mode fallback that preserves the raw result. */\nasync function callLlmStructured(\n  req: LlmCallRequest,\n  opts: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): Promise<LlmCallResult> {\n  try {\n    return await callLlm({ ...req, jsonMode: req.jsonMode ?? !req.jsonSchema }, opts)\n  } catch (err) {\n    if (\n      opts.jsonSchemaTransport !== 'json-object' &&\n      err instanceof LlmCallError &&\n      isSchemaRejection(err.status, err.body) &&\n      req.jsonSchema\n    ) {\n      const degradedReq: LlmCallRequest = { ...req, jsonMode: true, jsonSchema: undefined }\n      return await callLlm(degradedReq, opts)\n    }\n    throw err\n  }\n}\n\nfunction parseJsonResult<T>(\n  result: LlmCallResult,\n  jsonPayloadMode: NonNullable<LlmClientOptions['jsonPayloadMode']>,\n): T {\n  try {\n    if (result.finishReason === 'length') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `LLM returned truncated JSON content (model=${result.model}, finishReason=length)`,\n      )\n    }\n    return parseJsonSafely<T>(result.content, result.model, jsonPayloadMode)\n  } catch (error) {\n    if (error instanceof LlmResponseError) throw error\n    const cause = error instanceof Error ? error : new Error(String(error))\n    throw new LlmResponseError(cause.message, result, { cause })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction parseJsonSafely<T>(\n  content: string,\n  model: string,\n  jsonPayloadMode: NonNullable<LlmClientOptions['jsonPayloadMode']>,\n): T {\n  const payload = jsonPayloadMode === 'exact' ? content : extractJsonPayload(content)\n  try {\n    return JSON.parse(payload) as T\n  } catch (err) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `LLM returned non-JSON content (model=${model}): ${\n        err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n      }\\n--- raw content ---\\n${content.slice(0, 800)}`,\n    )\n  }\n}\n\n// ─── Route assertion ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type LlmRouteAssertionReason =\n  | 'no_explicit_base_url'\n  | 'base_url_blocked'\n  | 'base_url_not_allowed'\n  | 'no_auth'\n  | 'wrong_provider'\n\nexport class LlmRouteAssertionError extends CaptureIntegrityError {\n  constructor(\n    message: string,\n    public readonly reason: LlmRouteAssertionReason,\n    public readonly baseUrl: string,\n  ) {\n    super(message)\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface LlmRouteRequirements {\n  /**\n   * Throw if `opts.baseUrl` is undefined, i.e. the call would fall back to\n   * `DEFAULT_BASE_URL`. Set this for evaluation runs where silently using\n   * the public/free-tier router is a defect — the launch reviewer needs to\n   * know exactly which provider answered.\n   */\n  requireExplicitBaseUrl?: boolean\n  /**\n   * Allowlist of acceptable base URLs. Strings match by prefix\n   * (case-insensitive); RegExps test against the full base URL.\n   */\n  allowedBaseUrls?: Array<string | RegExp>\n  /** Blocklist that takes precedence over `allowedBaseUrls`. */\n  blockedBaseUrls?: Array<string | RegExp>\n  /** Throw if no auth header / api key is configured. */\n  requireAuth?: boolean\n  /**\n   * Logical provider id the configured `baseUrl` is expected to match (via\n   * `providerFromBaseUrl`). Mainly useful when paired with `requireExplicitBaseUrl`.\n   */\n  expectedProvider?: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Fail-loud assertion that the configured LLM client points at the route\n * the caller intends. Designed for the matrix-runner preflight: invoke\n * once before any LLM call to catch misconfiguration before a sweep burns\n * dollars on the wrong provider.\n *\n * Throws `LlmRouteAssertionError`. Pure — no I/O — so it's safe to call\n * from constructors and CI gates.\n */\nexport function assertLlmRoute(opts: LlmClientOptions, req: LlmRouteRequirements = {}): void {\n  const baseUrlExplicit = opts.baseUrl !== undefined\n  const baseUrl = (opts.baseUrl ?? DEFAULT_BASE_URL).replace(/\\/+$/, '')\n\n  if (req.requireExplicitBaseUrl && !baseUrlExplicit) {\n    throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n      `assertLlmRoute: requireExplicitBaseUrl set but opts.baseUrl is undefined; would fall back to ${DEFAULT_BASE_URL}.`,\n      'no_explicit_base_url',\n      baseUrl,\n    )\n  }\n\n  if (req.blockedBaseUrls?.some((p) => matchUrl(baseUrl, p))) {\n    throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n      `assertLlmRoute: baseUrl ${baseUrl} matches a blocked pattern.`,\n      'base_url_blocked',\n      baseUrl,\n    )\n  }\n\n  if (req.allowedBaseUrls && req.allowedBaseUrls.length > 0) {\n    const ok = req.allowedBaseUrls.some((p) => matchUrl(baseUrl, p))\n    if (!ok) {\n      throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n        `assertLlmRoute: baseUrl ${baseUrl} is not in the allowed list (${req.allowedBaseUrls.map(describePattern).join(', ')}).`,\n        'base_url_not_allowed',\n        baseUrl,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (req.requireAuth && !opts.apiKey && !opts.bearer && !opts.authHeader) {\n    throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n      `assertLlmRoute: requireAuth set but no apiKey, bearer, or authHeader was supplied.`,\n      'no_auth',\n      baseUrl,\n    )\n  }\n\n  if (req.expectedProvider) {\n    const actual = opts.provider ?? providerFromBaseUrl(baseUrl)\n    if (actual !== req.expectedProvider) {\n      throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n        `assertLlmRoute: expected provider ${req.expectedProvider} but baseUrl ${baseUrl} resolves to ${actual}.`,\n        'wrong_provider',\n        baseUrl,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction matchUrl(url: string, pattern: string | RegExp): boolean {\n  if (pattern instanceof RegExp) return pattern.test(url)\n  return url.toLowerCase().startsWith(pattern.toLowerCase())\n}\n\nfunction describePattern(p: string | RegExp): string {\n  return p instanceof RegExp ? p.source : p\n}\n\n/**\n * Probe whether a model is reachable. Returns latency + null error on\n * success; `ok=false` + error message on any failure (HTTP, timeout,\n * network, parse). Designed for sweep preflights — fail loud at the\n * boundary before burning a 30-leaf run on a misconfigured router.\n *\n * Sends a tiny `ping` message with `maxTokens=64`. Reasoning models\n * (glm-5.1, deepseek-v4) can burn the entire budget on internal reasoning\n * for short prompts, so don't tighten this further. We don't validate\n * content; HTTP 200 means reachable.\n */\nexport async function probeLlm(\n  model: string,\n  opts: LlmClientOptions & { timeoutMs?: number } = {},\n): Promise<{ ok: boolean; latencyMs: number; error: string | null }> {\n  const start = Date.now()\n  try {\n    await callLlm(\n      {\n        model,\n        messages: [{ role: 'user', content: 'ping' }],\n        maxTokens: 64,\n        timeoutMs: opts.timeoutMs ?? 30_000,\n      },\n      opts,\n    )\n    return { ok: true, latencyMs: Date.now() - start, error: null }\n  } catch (err) {\n    return {\n      ok: false,\n      latencyMs: Date.now() - start,\n      error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Stateful client — construct once with defaults, call many times.\n * Thin wrapper around the free functions; exists for callers that want\n * to inject a single configured instance into multiple primitives.\n */\nexport class LlmClient {\n  readonly maximumAttempts: number\n  private readonly opts: LlmClientOptions\n\n  constructor(opts: LlmClientOptions = {}) {\n    this.opts = opts\n    this.maximumAttempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(opts.maxRetries)\n  }\n\n  call(req: LlmCallRequest, per?: LlmClientOptions): Promise<LlmCallResult> {\n    const options = { ...this.opts, ...per }\n    return req.jsonSchema ? callLlmStructured(req, options) : callLlm(req, options)\n  }\n\n  callJson<T = unknown>(\n    req: LlmCallRequest,\n    per?: LlmClientOptions,\n  ): Promise<{ value: T; result: LlmCallResult }> {\n    return callLlmJson<T>(req, { ...this.opts, ...per })\n  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package/dist/chunk-K6IAZZ6L.js.map

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-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/contamination-guard.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * ContaminationGuard — ensures held-out scenarios don't leak into\n * training/prompt paths, and flags model memorization.\n *\n * Three probes:\n *   1. `checkCanaries(output, scenario)` — if the scenario carries a\n *      canary token, it MUST NOT appear in the agent's output.\n *      Canaries are strings that are statistically impossible to\n *      reconstruct from the scenario description alone — so if they\n *      echo back, the model memorized them.\n *   2. `canaryLeakView(store)` — cross-corpus view of every run whose\n *      output contained a canary, with the offending scenario + run.\n *   3. `HoldoutAuditor` — wraps a Dataset and emits a structured error\n *      on any code path that reads holdout scenarios but doesn't flag\n *      `purpose: 'evaluation'`. Keeps engineers honest.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from './dataset'\nimport { llmSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface CanaryLeak {\n  scenarioId: string\n  canary: string\n  runId?: string\n  evidence: string\n}\n\nexport function checkCanaries(output: string, scenarios: DatasetScenario[]): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const s of scenarios) {\n    if (!s.canary) continue\n    if (output.includes(s.canary)) {\n      leaks.push({ scenarioId: s.id, canary: s.canary, evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary) })\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary: tests the AGENT, not the eval grep.\n *\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` PRESENT in output ⇒ AGENT EMITTED BAD CONTENT ⇒ LEAK.\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` ABSENT from output ⇒ AGENT HELD THE LINE       ⇒ PASS.\n *\n * Use when running known-bad-prompt scenarios against the agent under\n * test and you want to know if the agent misbehaved. The classical\n * {@link checkCanaries} / {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries}\n * test whether the eval check fires when the bad output is forced\n * into the eval flow — different question, different answer.\n *\n * Pattern resolution order (first match wins):\n *   1. `scenario.forbiddenPattern` — if it parses as `/body/flags`,\n *      treated as a regex; otherwise a literal substring.\n *   2. `scenario.canary` — literal substring fallback so the helper\n *      works on existing scenario fixtures.\n *\n * Returns `null` when nothing forbidden was found OR the scenario\n * declared no pattern.\n */\nexport function checkBehavioralCanary(\n  output: string,\n  scenario: DatasetScenario,\n): CanaryLeak | null {\n  const pattern = scenario.forbiddenPattern ?? scenario.canary\n  if (!pattern) return null\n  const hit = matchForbidden(output, pattern)\n  if (!hit) return null\n  return {\n    scenarioId: scenario.id,\n    canary: pattern,\n    evidence: excerpt(output, hit),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary over many (scenario, output) pairs. Sibling to\n * {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries} — same idea\n * (run-many → report) but the question being answered is \"did the\n * AGENT misbehave?\" rather than \"did the EVAL grep fire?\".\n *\n * Returns one `CanaryLeak` per pair where the agent's output\n * contained its scenario's `forbiddenPattern` (or `canary` fallback).\n */\nexport function runBehavioralCanaries(\n  cases: Array<{ scenario: DatasetScenario; output: string; runId?: string }>,\n): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const c of cases) {\n    const leak = checkBehavioralCanary(c.output, c.scenario)\n    if (leak) leaks.push({ ...leak, runId: c.runId ?? leak.runId })\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Resolve a forbidden-pattern string to the matched substring inside\n * `output`. `/body/flags` notation is interpreted as a regex; anything\n * else is a literal substring.\n */\nfunction matchForbidden(output: string, pattern: string): string | null {\n  const re = tryParseRegex(pattern)\n  if (re) {\n    const m = output.match(re)\n    return m && m[0].length > 0 ? m[0] : null\n  }\n  return output.includes(pattern) ? pattern : null\n}\n\nfunction tryParseRegex(pattern: string): RegExp | null {\n  if (pattern.length < 2 || pattern[0] !== '/') return null\n  const last = pattern.lastIndexOf('/')\n  if (last <= 0) return null\n  const body = pattern.slice(1, last)\n  const flags = pattern.slice(last + 1)\n  if (!/^[gimsuy]*$/.test(flags)) return null\n  try {\n    return new RegExp(body, flags)\n  } catch {\n    return null\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Scan the LLM-output history in a corpus; returns every case where a\n * canary from a known scenario appeared in agent output. Pass the full\n * set of scenarios whose canaries you care about (typically the whole\n * held-out slice).\n */\nexport async function canaryLeakView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  scenarios: DatasetScenario[],\n): Promise<CanaryLeak[]> {\n  const targets = scenarios.filter((s) => !!s.canary)\n  if (targets.length === 0) return []\n  const spans = await llmSpans(store)\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const span of spans) {\n    const output = span.output ?? ''\n    for (const s of targets) {\n      if (s.canary && output.includes(s.canary)) {\n        leaks.push({\n          scenarioId: s.id,\n          canary: s.canary,\n          runId: span.runId,\n          evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary),\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\nexport class HoldoutAuditor {\n  private scenarios: DatasetScenario[]\n  private accessLog: Array<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> = []\n\n  constructor(scenarios: DatasetScenario[]) {\n    this.scenarios = scenarios\n  }\n\n  /** Retrieve a holdout scenario for a declared purpose. Non-'evaluation' throws. */\n  get(scenarioId: string, purpose: 'evaluation' | 'debugging'): DatasetScenario {\n    if (purpose !== 'evaluation' && purpose !== 'debugging') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `HoldoutAuditor.get: purpose must be 'evaluation' or 'debugging', got ${purpose}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const s = this.scenarios.find((x) => x.id === scenarioId)\n    if (!s) throw new Error(`holdout scenario \"${scenarioId}\" not found`)\n    this.accessLog.push({ scenarioId, purpose, at: Date.now() })\n    return s\n  }\n\n  getAccessLog(): ReadonlyArray<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> {\n    return this.accessLog\n  }\n}\n\nfunction excerpt(source: string, needle: string): string {\n  const at = source.indexOf(needle)\n  if (at < 0) return ''\n  const start = Math.max(0, at - 30)\n  const end = Math.min(source.length, at + needle.length + 30)\n  return (start > 0 ? '…' : '') + source.slice(start, end) + (end < source.length ? '…' : '')\n}\n","/**\n * # `analyzeRuns()` — turn a set of agent runs into an actionable decision packet.\n *\n * Wires the substrate's statistical, calibration, clustering, Pareto, and\n * release-confidence primitives into one `InsightReport`. Two top-level\n * entry points use this function:\n *\n *   - `selfImprove()` calls it on the campaign output to attach a packet\n *     to every run.\n *   - Consumers with observed `RunRecord[]` (production traces, gold\n *     corpora, approve/reject tables) call it directly via `analyzeRuns()`\n *     for analysis without a closed loop.\n *\n * Every section is opt-in based on what the input data supports — the\n * function never invents signal. If runs carry no judge scores, `judges`\n * is empty. If there's no baseline/candidate split, `lift` is undefined.\n * If no `analyst` is wired, `failureClusters` is undefined.\n *\n * The `recommendations` array is the human-readable layer; everything\n * else is the evidence backing each recommendation.\n */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { AnalystFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { checkCanaries } from '../contamination-guard'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport { summarizeBackendIntegrity } from '../integrity/backend-integrity'\nimport { continuousAgreement } from '../judge-calibration'\nimport { type RunRecord, type RunTokenUsage, resolveRunCostProvenance } from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  cohensD,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedMde,\n  pairedTTest,\n  pearsonR,\n  requiredSampleSize,\n  spearmanR,\n} from '../statistics'\nimport { type ParetoFigureSpec, paretoChart } from '../summary-report'\n\nimport type {\n  CostProvenanceSummary,\n  ExecutionInsight,\n  FailureClusterInsight,\n  FailureModeTally,\n  InsightReport,\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  LiftInsight,\n  MetricDelta,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  PriorPeriodComparison,\n  Recommendation,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n  TokenUsageInsight,\n} from './insight-report'\n\n// ── Public API ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {\n  /** The runs to analyze. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Which split to score against when reading composite from RunOutcome.\n   *  Default: holdout when ANY run has a `holdoutScore`, else search. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto'\n  /** Pairwise analysis configuration. When both `baselineCandidateId` and\n   *  `candidateCandidateId` are present, lift is computed on paired\n   *  (experimentId, seed) tuples shared between the two sides. */\n  baselineCandidateId?: string\n  candidateCandidateId?: string\n  /** Canary scenarios — checked against every run's raw output for\n   *  holdout contamination. */\n  canaryScenarios?: DatasetScenario[]\n  /** Analyst registry for failure clustering. When omitted, the\n   *  `failureClusters` section is left undefined. */\n  analyst?: AnalystRegistry\n  /** Downstream outcome metric per run (e.g. engagement rate, approval\n   *  rate, downstream pass rate). When present, the report includes\n   *  `outcomeCorrelation` + a simple linear reward model fit. */\n  outcomeSignal?: {\n    metric: string\n    valueByRunId: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Multi-rater feedback for inter-rater agreement. Each entry is one\n   *  rater's score for one run. Two or more raters → kappa + disagreement\n   *  triage list. */\n  raterScores?: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>\n  /** Number of histogram bins for distributional summaries. Default 12. */\n  histogramBins?: number\n  /** Decision threshold — the smallest composite lift the caller cares\n   *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.\n   *  Default 0.02. */\n  decisionThreshold?: number\n  /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes\n   *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and\n   *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.\n   *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison\n   *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired\n   *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, seed) tuples; this is the\n   *  shape for \"this week vs last week\" rather than \"candidate vs\n   *  baseline within a campaign\"). */\n  baselineRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. \"vs prior 7\n   *  days\", \"vs v3.1 release\". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SummarizeExecutionOptions {\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  histogramBins?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ExecutionReport {\n  execution: ExecutionInsight\n  costProvenance: CostProvenanceSummary\n}\n\n/** Summarize runtime facts without interpreting task quality or promotion readiness. */\nexport function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionReport {\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  return {\n    execution: computeExecutionInsight(opts.runs, bins),\n    costProvenance: summarizeCostProvenance(opts.runs),\n  }\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport> {\n  const runs = opts.runs\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.02\n  const split = resolveSplit(runs, opts.split ?? 'auto')\n\n  const compositeWithIds = runs\n    .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, score: compositeOf(r, split) }))\n    .filter((p) => Number.isFinite(p.score))\n  const composite = distributionOf(\n    compositeWithIds.map((p) => p.score),\n    bins,\n    compositeWithIds,\n  )\n\n  const perDimension = computePerDimension(runs, bins)\n  const { execution, costProvenance: provenance } = summarizeExecution({\n    runs,\n    histogramBins: bins,\n  })\n  const knownCostRuns = runs.filter((run) => resolveRunCostProvenance(run).kind !== 'uncaptured')\n  const costs = knownCostRuns.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const costDist = distributionOf(costs, bins)\n  const pareto = paretoChart(knownCostRuns, { split })\n  const degraded: { cost?: string; pareto?: string } = {}\n  if (provenance.uncaptured.n > 0) {\n    degraded.cost = diagnoseCostCoverage(runs, provenance)\n  } else if (costs.length === 0 || costs.every((c) => c === 0)) {\n    degraded.cost =\n      runs.length > 0 && runs.every((run) => run.costProvenance !== undefined)\n        ? `all ${runs.length} explicitly observed or estimated USD values are $0`\n        : diagnoseZeroCost(runs)\n  }\n  if (pareto.points.length < 2) {\n    degraded.pareto =\n      pareto.points.length === 0\n        ? 'no candidates — Pareto unavailable'\n        : 'single candidate — Pareto is a single point, not a frontier'\n  }\n  const costQuality = {\n    cost: costDist,\n    pareto,\n    provenance,\n    ...(degraded.cost || degraded.pareto ? { degraded } : {}),\n  }\n\n  const judges = computeJudgeInsights(runs)\n\n  const interRater = opts.raterScores ? computeInterRater(opts.raterScores) : undefined\n\n  const lift = computeLift(runs, opts.baselineCandidateId, opts.candidateCandidateId, split)\n\n  const failureClusters = opts.analyst\n    ? await computeFailureClusters(runs, opts.analyst, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const failureModes = computeFailureModes(runs)\n\n  const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios\n    ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios)\n    : undefined\n\n  const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal\n    ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination)\n\n  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns\n    ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel)\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendations = buildRecommendations({\n    composite,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    failureModes,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    priorPeriodComparison,\n    threshold,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    n: runs.length,\n    execution,\n    composite,\n    perDimension,\n    costQuality,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    release,\n    ...(failureModes ? { failureModes } : {}),\n    ...(priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {}),\n    recommendations,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction computeExecutionInsight(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): ExecutionInsight {\n  const aggregateRows = runs.flatMap((run) => {\n    const usage = aggregateTokenUsage(run)\n    return usage ? [{ usage, costUsd: finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cost_usd') }] : []\n  })\n  const aggregateCosts = aggregateRows.flatMap((row) =>\n    row.costUsd !== undefined ? [row.costUsd] : [],\n  )\n  const modelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n  let failureRuns = 0\n  let reportedErrorEvents = 0\n  let errorReportingRuns = 0\n  let modelCallRuns = 0\n  let modelCallEvents = 0\n  let modelCallReportingRuns = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    modelCounts.set(run.model, (modelCounts.get(run.model) ?? 0) + 1)\n    const modelCalls = run.outcome.raw.llm_span_count\n    if (Number.isFinite(modelCalls)) {\n      modelCallEvents += modelCalls!\n      modelCallReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    const usage = run.tokenUsage\n    if (\n      (modelCalls ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      usage.input > 0 ||\n      usage.output > 0 ||\n      (usage.cached ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      (usage.cacheWrite ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      modelCallRuns += 1\n    }\n    const errorEvents = run.outcome.raw.error_span_count\n    if (Number.isFinite(errorEvents)) {\n      reportedErrorEvents += errorEvents!\n      errorReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    if (\n      (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') ||\n      run.failureMode !== undefined ||\n      (errorEvents ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      failureRuns += 1\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    durationMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.map((run) => run.wallMs),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    queueMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.queueMs !== undefined).map((run) => run.queueMs!),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n      runs.map((run) => run.tokenUsage),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    aggregateUsage: {\n      runs: aggregateRows.length,\n      tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n        aggregateRows.map((row) => row.usage),\n        bins,\n      ),\n      costUsd: distributionOf(aggregateCosts, bins),\n      totalCostUsd: aggregateCosts.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n    models: [...modelCounts.entries()]\n      .map(([model, count]) => ({ model, runs: count }))\n      .sort((left, right) => right.runs - left.runs || left.model.localeCompare(right.model)),\n    modelCalls: {\n      runs: modelCallRuns,\n      events: modelCallEvents,\n      reportingRuns: modelCallReportingRuns,\n    },\n    failures: {\n      runs: failureRuns,\n      fraction: runs.length > 0 ? failureRuns / runs.length : 0,\n      reportedErrorEvents,\n      reportingRuns: errorReportingRuns,\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction summarizeTokenUsage(usages: RunTokenUsage[], bins: number): TokenUsageInsight {\n  const reasoning = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.reasoning !== undefined ? [usage.reasoning] : [],\n  )\n  const cached = usages.flatMap((usage) => (usage.cached !== undefined ? [usage.cached] : []))\n  const cacheWrite = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.cacheWrite !== undefined ? [usage.cacheWrite] : [],\n  )\n  return {\n    input: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.input),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    output: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.output),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    reasoning: distributionOf(reasoning, bins),\n    cached: distributionOf(cached, bins),\n    cacheWrite: distributionOf(cacheWrite, bins),\n    totals: {\n      input: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.input, 0),\n      output: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.output, 0),\n      reasoning: reasoning.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cached: cached.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cacheWrite: cacheWrite.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTokenUsage(run: RunRecord): RunTokenUsage | undefined {\n  const input = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_prompt_tokens')\n  const output = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_completion_tokens')\n  const reasoning = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_reasoning_tokens')\n  const cached = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cached_tokens')\n  const cacheWrite = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cache_write_tokens')\n  if (\n    input === undefined &&\n    output === undefined &&\n    reasoning === undefined &&\n    cached === undefined &&\n    cacheWrite === undefined\n  )\n    return undefined\n  return {\n    input: input ?? 0,\n    output: output ?? 0,\n    ...(reasoning !== undefined ? { reasoning } : {}),\n    ...(cached !== undefined ? { cached } : {}),\n    ...(cacheWrite !== undefined ? { cacheWrite } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction finiteRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = run.outcome.raw[key]\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeCostProvenance(runs: RunRecord[]): CostProvenanceSummary {\n  const summary: CostProvenanceSummary = {\n    observed: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    estimated: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    uncaptured: { n: 0 },\n    knownFraction: 0,\n  }\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const cost = resolveRunCostProvenance(run)\n    if (cost.kind === 'uncaptured') {\n      summary.uncaptured.n += 1\n    } else {\n      summary[cost.kind].n += 1\n      summary[cost.kind].totalUsd += cost.usd\n    }\n  }\n  const known = summary.observed.n + summary.estimated.n\n  summary.knownFraction = runs.length > 0 ? known / runs.length : 0\n  return summary\n}\n\nfunction diagnoseCostCoverage(runs: RunRecord[], provenance: CostProvenanceSummary): string {\n  const uncaptured = provenance.uncaptured.n\n  const known = provenance.observed.n + provenance.estimated.n\n  const explicitUncaptured = runs.some((run) => run.costProvenance?.kind === 'uncaptured')\n  if (uncaptured === runs.length && !explicitUncaptured) return diagnoseZeroCost(runs)\n  if (uncaptured === runs.length) {\n    return `USD cost uncaptured for all ${runs.length} runs — no observed or estimated USD values; token and wall-time metrics remain available.`\n  }\n  return `USD cost uncaptured for ${uncaptured}/${runs.length} runs; excluded those rows from cost statistics (${known}/${runs.length} retained: ${provenance.observed.n} observed, ${provenance.estimated.n} estimated).`\n}\n\n/** Model-free failure tally. Keys on the canonical cross-agent\n *  `failureClass` when present, falling back to the free-form `failureMode`\n *  for un-migrated producers — so the cross-fleet vocabulary is used the\n *  moment a producer adopts it, without breaking legacy corpora. Returns\n *  undefined when no run carries either tag. */\n/** Explain a zero-valued cost axis by its root cause, not just \"no signal\".\n *  Two distinct causes blank the axis and need opposite fixes:\n *    - stub-mode (tokenUsage 0/0): the backend never reported real LLM\n *      activity, so cost is unknowable — the fix is upstream (capture usage).\n *    - uncosted (output>0 but costUsd 0): tokens flowed but the model id was\n *      unpriced — the fix is pricing (isModelPriced / resolveModelPricing).\n *  Reuses the backend-integrity summary so the diagnosis stays in lockstep\n *  with the stub/uncosted detectors that gate canonical runs. */\nfunction diagnoseZeroCost(runs: RunRecord[]): string {\n  const integrity = summarizeBackendIntegrity(runs)\n  const { totalRecords, stubRecords, uncostedRecords } = integrity\n  if (totalRecords > 0 && stubRecords === totalRecords) {\n    return `no costUsd values recorded — all ${totalRecords} records are stub-mode (zero token usage). The backend never reported real LLM activity, so cost cannot be computed; verify the backend actually ran before trusting this corpus.`\n  }\n  if (uncostedRecords > 0) {\n    return `no costUsd values recorded — ${uncostedRecords}/${totalRecords} records have token usage but $0 cost (unpriced model). Check isModelPriced(model) for the run's model id and add it to FAMILY_PRICING.`\n  }\n  if (stubRecords > 0) {\n    return `no costUsd values recorded — ${stubRecords}/${totalRecords} records are stub-mode (zero token usage); the remainder reported neither tokens nor cost. Cost axis carries no signal.`\n  }\n  return 'no costUsd values recorded — cost axis carries no signal'\n}\n\nfunction computeFailureModes(runs: RunRecord[]): FailureModeTally[] | undefined {\n  const counts = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const key = r.failureClass ?? r.failureMode\n    if (key) counts.set(key, (counts.get(key) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  if (counts.size === 0) return undefined\n  const n = runs.length\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .map(([mode, count]) => ({ mode, count, share: n > 0 ? count / n : 0 }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.count - a.count || a.mode.localeCompare(b.mode))\n}\n\n// ── Prior-period comparison ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Direction of the metric — does \"higher current\" mean better or worse?\n *  Composite + judge dimensions: higher is better. Cost + duration: lower\n *  is better. The recommendations engine flips the sign before judging\n *  regressed vs improved. */\ntype MetricDirection = 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n\nfunction computePriorPeriodComparison(\n  current: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  windowLabel: string | undefined,\n): PriorPeriodComparison | undefined {\n  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const metrics: Record<string, MetricDelta> = {}\n  const directions: Record<string, MetricDirection> = {}\n\n  const compositeCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  const compositeBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent)\n    directions.composite = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const costCurrent = knownCostValues(current)\n  const costBaseline = knownCostValues(baseline)\n  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent)\n    directions.cost = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent)\n    directions.duration = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const tokCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const tokBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent)\n    directions.tokenUsage = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  // Per-dimension judge comparisons — only for dimensions present in BOTH\n  // windows. We use perDimMean since per-judge nesting is finicky for\n  // two-sample comparisons across different judge configurations.\n  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current)\n  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline)\n  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {\n    const b = dimsBaseline[dim]\n    const c = dimsCurrent[dim]\n    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue\n    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c)\n    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const regressedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const improvedMetrics: string[] = []\n  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {\n    if (!delta.significant) continue\n    const dir = directions[name] ?? 'higher-is-better'\n    const better = dir === 'higher-is-better' ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0\n    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name)\n    else regressedMetrics.push(name)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n    ...(windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {}),\n    metrics,\n    regressedMetrics,\n    improvedMetrics,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction knownCostValues(runs: RunRecord[]): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => resolveRunCostProvenance(run).kind !== 'uncaptured')\n    .map((run) => run.costUsd)\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n}\n\n/** Collect per-dimension values across runs (from outcome.judgeScores.perDimMean). */\nfunction collectPerDimension(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, number[]> {\n  const out: Record<string, number[]> = {}\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean\n    if (!perDim) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = []\n      out[dim].push(value as number)\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Two-sample Welch comparison: unequal-variance t-test + CI on the delta\n *  + Cohen's d (pooled stddev). Significance = p < 0.05 AND |d| >= 0.2. */\nfunction welchCompare(baseline: number[], current: number[]): MetricDelta {\n  const baselineMean = mean(baseline)\n  const currentMean = mean(current)\n  const baselineVar = sampleVariance(baseline, baselineMean)\n  const currentVar = sampleVariance(current, currentMean)\n  const baselineN = baseline.length\n  const currentN = current.length\n  const delta = currentMean - baselineMean\n\n  // Welch standard error\n  const se = Math.sqrt(baselineVar / baselineN + currentVar / currentN)\n  // For 95% CI we use z=1.96 (large-n approximation). Customers running\n  // analyzeRuns will typically have n >= 30; the t-correction is\n  // negligible vs the practical noise floor.\n  const halfWidth = 1.96 * (se > 0 ? se : 0)\n  const ci95: [number, number] = [delta - halfWidth, delta + halfWidth]\n\n  // p-value via normal approximation to the t-statistic.\n  const t = se > 0 ? delta / se : 0\n  const pValue = se > 0 ? 2 * (1 - standardNormalCdf(Math.abs(t))) : 1\n\n  // Cohen's d — pooled stddev.\n  const pooledStddev = Math.sqrt(\n    ((baselineN - 1) * baselineVar + (currentN - 1) * currentVar) /\n      Math.max(1, baselineN + currentN - 2),\n  )\n  const cohensD = pooledStddev > 0 ? delta / pooledStddev : 0\n\n  // Significance: BOTH p < 0.05 AND |d| >= 0.2 (small-effect threshold).\n  const significant = pValue < 0.05 && Math.abs(cohensD) >= 0.2\n\n  return {\n    current: currentMean,\n    baseline: baselineMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95,\n    pValue,\n    cohensD,\n    baselineN,\n    currentN,\n    significant,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction sampleVariance(xs: number[], xsMean: number): number {\n  if (xs.length < 2) return 0\n  let s = 0\n  for (const x of xs) s += (x - xsMean) ** 2\n  return s / (xs.length - 1)\n}\n\n/** Abramowitz & Stegun approximation to Φ(z). Maximum error ~7.5e-8. */\nfunction standardNormalCdf(z: number): number {\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n  const sign = z < 0 ? -1 : 1\n  const x = Math.abs(z) / Math.SQRT2\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * x)\n  const y = 1 - ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-x * x)\n  return 0.5 * (1 + sign * y)\n}\n\n// ── Composite + split selection ─────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction resolveSplit(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  pref: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto',\n): 'search' | 'holdout' {\n  if (pref !== 'auto') return pref\n  const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(r.outcome.holdoutScore))\n  return hasHoldout ? 'holdout' : 'search'\n}\n\nfunction compositeOf(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number {\n  const primary = split === 'holdout' ? run.outcome.holdoutScore : run.outcome.searchScore\n  if (Number.isFinite(primary)) return primary as number\n  // Fall through to the other split if the preferred one is missing —\n  // analyzeRuns shouldn't refuse to summarise a run just because the\n  // caller asked for the split that wasn't recorded.\n  const alt = split === 'holdout' ? run.outcome.searchScore : run.outcome.holdoutScore\n  return Number.isFinite(alt) ? (alt as number) : Number.NaN\n}\n\n// ── Distribution helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction distributionOf(\n  values: number[],\n  bins: number,\n  withIds?: Array<{ runId: string; score: number }>,\n): ScalarDistribution {\n  if (values.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      mean: 0,\n      p50: 0,\n      p95: 0,\n      stddev: 0,\n      min: 0,\n      max: 0,\n      histogram: [],\n    }\n  }\n  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const n = sorted.length\n  const mean = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n\n  const variance = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n\n  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const tailRuns = withIds\n    ? [...withIds].sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, Math.min(5, withIds.length))\n    : undefined\n  return {\n    n,\n    mean,\n    p50: percentile(sorted, 0.5),\n    p95: percentile(sorted, 0.95),\n    stddev,\n    min: sorted[0]!,\n    max: sorted[n - 1]!,\n    histogram: histogram(sorted, bins),\n    ...(tailRuns ? { tailRuns } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction percentile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n  const idx = (sorted.length - 1) * q\n  const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n  const w = idx - lo\n  return sorted[lo]! * (1 - w) + sorted[hi]! * w\n}\n\n/** Even-width histogram over the value range. Returns inclusive-lo /\n *  exclusive-hi bins (closed on right for the last bin) compatible with\n *  the substrate's `GainDistributionBin` shape. */\nfunction histogram(sorted: number[], bins: number): ScalarDistribution['histogram'] {\n  if (sorted.length === 0 || bins < 1) return []\n  const min = sorted[0]!\n  const max = sorted[sorted.length - 1]!\n  if (min === max) return [{ lo: min, hi: max, count: sorted.length }]\n  const width = (max - min) / bins\n  const out: ScalarDistribution['histogram'] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < bins; i++) {\n    const lo = min + i * width\n    const hi = i === bins - 1 ? max : lo + width\n    out.push({ lo, hi, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const v of sorted) {\n    const idx = Math.min(bins - 1, Math.floor((v - min) / width))\n    out[idx]!.count++\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction computePerDimension(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): Record<string, ScalarDistribution> {\n  // JudgeScoresRecord pre-aggregates `perDimMean` (mean across judges per\n  // dimension). We collect those means across runs to produce a per-dim\n  // distribution at the corpus level. Consumers who want per-judge\n  // dimension values reach into `perJudge[judgeId][dim]` themselves.\n  const byDim = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(scores.perDimMean ?? {})) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      const arr = byDim.get(dim) ?? []\n      arr.push(value)\n      byDim.set(dim, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, ScalarDistribution> = {}\n  for (const [dim, values] of byDim) out[dim] = distributionOf(values, bins)\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Judge insights ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeJudgeInsights(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, JudgeInsight> {\n  // Each judge's per-run mean is the average of its per-dimension scores\n  // for that run. We aggregate those means across all runs each judge\n  // scored — giving consumers a \"this judge's typical verdict\" reading.\n  const out: Record<string, JudgeInsight> = {}\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores?.perJudge) continue\n    for (const [judgeId, dims] of Object.entries(scores.perJudge)) {\n      const dimValues = Object.values(dims).filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n      if (dimValues.length === 0) continue\n      const judgeMean = dimValues.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / dimValues.length\n      const arr = byJudge.get(judgeId) ?? []\n      arr.push(judgeMean)\n      byJudge.set(judgeId, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  for (const [judgeId, values] of byJudge) {\n    out[judgeId] = {\n      n: values.length,\n      meanScore: values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Inter-rater agreement ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeInterRater(\n  ratings: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>,\n): InterRaterInsight | undefined {\n  const byRun = new Map<string, Array<{ rater: string; score: number }>>()\n  for (const r of ratings) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) continue\n    const list = byRun.get(r.runId) ?? []\n    list.push({ rater: r.rater, score: r.score })\n    byRun.set(r.runId, list)\n  }\n  const raters = new Set(ratings.map((r) => r.rater))\n  const jointlyRated: string[] = []\n  for (const [runId, ratersForRun] of byRun) {\n    const seen = new Set(ratersForRun.map((r) => r.rater))\n    let all = true\n    for (const r of raters) if (!seen.has(r)) all = false\n    if (all) jointlyRated.push(runId)\n  }\n  if (raters.size < 2 || jointlyRated.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const raterList = [...raters].sort()\n  const perPair: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (let i = 0; i < raterList.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < raterList.length; j++) {\n      const a = raterList[i]!\n      const b = raterList[j]!\n      const aScores: number[] = []\n      const bScores: number[] = []\n      for (const runId of jointlyRated) {\n        const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n        const sa = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === a)?.score\n        const sb = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === b)?.score\n        if (sa !== undefined && sb !== undefined) {\n          aScores.push(sa)\n          bScores.push(sb)\n        }\n      }\n      const agreement = continuousAgreement(\n        aScores.map((score, index) => [score, bScores[index]!]),\n        { bootstrap: 0 },\n      )\n      perPair[`${a}::${b}`] = agreement.weightedKappa\n    }\n  }\n  const matrix = jointlyRated.map((runId) => {\n    const ratingsByRater = new Map(byRun.get(runId)!.map((rating) => [rating.rater, rating.score]))\n    return raterList.map((rater) => ratingsByRater.get(rater)!)\n  })\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, { bootstrap: 0 })\n\n  const disagreementCases = jointlyRated\n    .map((runId) => {\n      const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n      const scores = ratersForRun.map((r) => r.score)\n      const range = Math.max(...scores) - Math.min(...scores)\n      return { runId, ratings: ratersForRun, range }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.range - a.range)\n    .slice(0, 20)\n\n  return {\n    raters: raters.size,\n    jointlyRated: jointlyRated.length,\n    kappa: Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa) ? agreement.weightedKappa : 0,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    pearson: agreement.pearson,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    perPair,\n    disagreementCases,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Lift ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeLift(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  baselineId: string | undefined,\n  candidateId: string | undefined,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): LiftInsight | undefined {\n  let bId = baselineId\n  let cId = candidateId\n  if (!bId || !cId) {\n    // Auto-detect: when exactly two distinct candidateIds appear, treat the\n    // lower-mean side as baseline.\n    const ids = [...new Set(runs.map((r) => r.candidateId))]\n    if (ids.length !== 2) return undefined\n    const [idA, idB] = ids as [string, string]\n    const meanA = mean(runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === idA).map((r) => compositeOf(r, split)))\n    const meanB = mean(runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === idB).map((r) => compositeOf(r, split)))\n    bId = meanA <= meanB ? idA : idB\n    cId = meanA <= meanB ? idB : idA\n  }\n\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === bId)\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === cId)\n  if (baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  // Pair on (experimentId, seed). When that key doesn't match, fall back\n  // to ordinal pairing — common for fresh runs from the same scenario list.\n  const baselineByKey = new Map(baseline.map((r) => [pairingKey(r), r]))\n  const pairedBaseline: number[] = []\n  const pairedCandidate: number[] = []\n  let usedKeyPairing = false\n  for (const cand of candidate) {\n    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairingKey(cand))\n    if (b) {\n      const bC = compositeOf(b, split)\n      const cC = compositeOf(cand, split)\n      if (Number.isFinite(bC) && Number.isFinite(cC)) {\n        pairedBaseline.push(bC)\n        pairedCandidate.push(cC)\n        usedKeyPairing = true\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  if (!usedKeyPairing) {\n    const n = Math.min(baseline.length, candidate.length)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const bC = compositeOf(baseline[i]!, split)\n      const cC = compositeOf(candidate[i]!, split)\n      if (Number.isFinite(bC) && Number.isFinite(cC)) {\n        pairedBaseline.push(bC)\n        pairedCandidate.push(cC)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  if (pairedBaseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(pairedBaseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(pairedCandidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate, {\n    confidence: 0.95,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'mean',\n  })\n  const tTest = pairedTTest(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const d = cohensD(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const mde = pairedMde({ nPaired: pairedBaseline.length, power: 0.8, alpha: 0.05 })\n  const requiredN = requiredSampleSize({\n    effect: Math.max(Math.abs(delta), 1e-6),\n    power: 0.8,\n    alpha: 0.05,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],\n    pValue: tTest.p,\n    n: pairedBaseline.length,\n    cohensD: d,\n    mde,\n    requiredN,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction pairingKey(r: RunRecord): string {\n  return `${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`\n}\n\nfunction mean(arr: number[]): number {\n  return arr.length === 0 ? 0 : arr.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / arr.length\n}\n\n// ── Failure clustering ──────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nasync function computeFailureClusters(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  analyst: AnalystRegistry,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): Promise<FailureClusterInsight | undefined> {\n  const failed = runs.filter((r) => compositeOf(r, split) < 0.5 || r.failureMode !== undefined)\n  if (failed.length === 0) return { clusters: [], totalFailures: 0 }\n\n  const clusters = new Map<string, { exemplars: string[]; share: number }>()\n  for (const run of failed) {\n    try {\n      // AnalystRunInputs routes by field name: run-record analysts read\n      // `runRecord`. Any other shape makes every analyst skip with\n      // \"missing input\" and the clusters come back silently empty.\n      const result = await analyst.run(run.runId, { runRecord: run })\n      for (const finding of result.findings as AnalystFinding[]) {\n        const key = finding.area || finding.analyst_id || 'unclassified'\n        const c = clusters.get(key) ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n        if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n        clusters.set(key, c)\n      }\n    } catch {\n      const c = clusters.get('analyst-error') ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n      if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n      clusters.set('analyst-error', c)\n    }\n  }\n  const clusterList = [...clusters.entries()].map(([id, c]) => ({\n    id,\n    name: id,\n    share: c.exemplars.length / failed.length,\n    exemplars: c.exemplars,\n  }))\n  clusterList.sort((a, b) => b.share - a.share)\n  return { clusters: clusterList, totalFailures: failed.length }\n}\n\n// ── Contamination ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeContamination(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  canaries: DatasetScenario[],\n): InsightReport['contamination'] {\n  let leaks = 0\n  const details: Array<{ runId: string; canary: string; matched: string }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const output = stringifyOutput(run)\n    if (!output) continue\n    const leaksHere = checkCanaries(output, canaries)\n    for (const leak of leaksHere) {\n      leaks++\n      details.push({ runId: run.runId, canary: leak.canary, matched: leak.evidence })\n    }\n  }\n  return { leaks, holdoutAuditPassed: leaks === 0, details }\n}\n\nfunction stringifyOutput(run: RunRecord): string | undefined {\n  // RunRecord doesn't fix where \"the agent's output\" lives — different\n  // consumers stash it differently. We probe the common shapes: the\n  // outcome.raw map (numeric only by design — unlikely to contain text),\n  // and any string-valued fields tucked under metadata via type casting.\n  // Consumers with bespoke shapes pass canaryScenarios only when they\n  // know their runs carry a stringifiable surface.\n  const metadata = (run as unknown as { metadata?: Record<string, unknown> }).metadata\n  if (typeof metadata?.output === 'string') return metadata.output\n  if (typeof metadata?.text === 'string') return metadata.text\n  return undefined\n}\n\n// ── Outcome correlation + linear reward model ──────────────────────\n\nfunction computeOutcomeCorrelation(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  outcome: { metric: string; valueByRunId: Record<string, number> },\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): OutcomeCorrelationInsight | undefined {\n  const xs: number[] = []\n  const ys: number[] = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const y = outcome.valueByRunId[run.runId]\n    if (y === undefined || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    const x = compositeOf(run, split)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    xs.push(x)\n    ys.push(y)\n  }\n  if (xs.length < 3) return undefined\n\n  const p = pearsonR(xs, ys)\n  const s = spearmanR(xs, ys)\n  const meanX = mean(xs)\n  const meanY = mean(ys)\n  let num = 0\n  let denom = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    num += (xs[i]! - meanX) * (ys[i]! - meanY)\n    denom += (xs[i]! - meanX) ** 2\n  }\n  const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : num / denom\n  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX\n  const ssTot = ys.reduce((a, y) => a + (y - meanY) ** 2, 0)\n  const ssRes = ys.reduce((a, y, i) => a + (y - (intercept + slope * xs[i]!)) ** 2, 0)\n  const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot\n\n  return {\n    metric: outcome.metric,\n    n: xs.length,\n    pearson: p,\n    spearman: s,\n    rewardModel: { intercept, slope, r2 },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Release confidence scorecard ───────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction buildReleaseScorecard(\n  composite: ScalarDistribution,\n  lift: LiftInsight | undefined,\n  contamination: InsightReport['contamination'],\n): InsightReport['release'] {\n  // Synthesise a minimal scorecard from the rolled-up signal. The\n  // substrate's `evaluateReleaseConfidence` primitive consumes a richer\n  // input shape that callers can produce by wiring SLO definitions; the\n  // shape here is the contract `selfImprove`/`analyzeRuns` consumers\n  // receive automatically. They can call `evaluateReleaseConfidence`\n  // directly when they want SLO-based axis evaluation.\n  const axes: InsightReport['release']['axes'] = []\n  const liftPass =\n    lift === undefined || lift.ci95[0] > 0\n      ? ('pass' as const)\n      : lift.delta > 0\n        ? ('warn' as const)\n        : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'quality-lift',\n    status: liftPass,\n    detail: lift\n      ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}`\n      : 'no baseline/candidate pair available',\n  })\n  const contamPass =\n    contamination === undefined || contamination.leaks === 0 ? ('pass' as const) : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'contamination',\n    status: contamPass,\n    detail: contamination ? `${contamination.leaks} canary leak(s)` : 'no canaries supplied',\n  })\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'composite-distribution',\n    status: composite.mean >= 0.5 ? 'pass' : composite.mean >= 0.3 ? 'warn' : 'fail',\n    detail: `mean=${composite.mean.toFixed(3)}, p50=${composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${composite.p95.toFixed(3)} over n=${composite.n}`,\n  })\n  const status = axes.some((a) => a.status === 'fail')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : axes.some((a) => a.status === 'warn')\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return {\n    status,\n    axes,\n    issues: [],\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Recommendations engine ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\ninterface RecommendationContext {\n  composite: ScalarDistribution\n  judges: Record<string, JudgeInsight>\n  interRater?: InterRaterInsight\n  lift?: LiftInsight\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterInsight\n  failureModes?: FailureModeTally[]\n  contamination?: InsightReport['contamination']\n  outcomeCorrelation?: OutcomeCorrelationInsight\n  priorPeriodComparison?: PriorPeriodComparison\n  threshold: number\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendations(ctx: RecommendationContext): Recommendation[] {\n  const out: Recommendation[] = []\n\n  // Prior-period regressions — highest customer-impact signal when present.\n  // \"Did my last change help?\" with a falsifiable answer.\n  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {\n    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison\n    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? 'baseline period'\n    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d) continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d) continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'low',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Composite-distribution branch. Fires when the overall quality signal is\n  // poor regardless of lift / contamination / clusters — the customer needs\n  // to know they have a problem AND which specific runs to inspect.\n  if (ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 5)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below the 0.3 floor — the agent is broken on this corpus`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} to inspect first: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    } else if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.5) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 3)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below 0.5 — investigate the lower tail before claiming the agent is healthy`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Dominant-failure-mode branch (model-free). A healthy-looking mean can\n  // hide a bimodal corpus — many perfect runs + a cluster of total failures\n  // sharing one named cause. Fires off the structured `failureMode` tags the\n  // harness already recorded, so a single batch with no analyst/baseline\n  // still gets a \"go fix this\" pointer.\n  if (ctx.failureModes && ctx.failureModes.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureModes[0]!\n    if (top.count >= 3 && top.share >= 0.15) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: top.share >= 0.25 ? 'high' : 'medium',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `'${top.mode}' is the dominant failure mode — ${top.count} runs (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of the corpus)`,\n        detail: `The mean composite can look acceptable while one named failure dominates the lower tail. ${top.count} of ${ctx.composite.n} runs failed with '${top.mode}'${ctx.failureModes.length > 1 ? ` (next: '${ctx.failureModes[1]!.mode}' ×${ctx.failureModes[1]!.count})` : ''}. Fix this cause first.`,\n        evidencePath: 'failureModes',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Missing-judges branch. The report can't surface per-dimension or\n  // calibration signal when `outcome.judgeScores` is empty across the\n  // corpus. Tell the customer how to enrich.\n  if (Object.keys(ctx.judges).length === 0 && ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'expand-corpus',\n      title: 'No judge scores recorded — per-dimension + calibration insights unavailable',\n      detail:\n        'Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.',\n      evidencePath: 'judges',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.lift) {\n    const decisive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold\n    const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold\n    if (decisive) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,\n        detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)}, d=${ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2)}).`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else if (inconclusive) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'expand-corpus',\n        title: `Inconclusive — need ~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs (have ${ctx.lift.n}) at current effect size`,\n        detail: `CI straddles threshold. Current MDE at 80% power is ${ctx.lift.mde.toFixed(3)}; observed delta is ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'hold',\n        title: `Hold — lift CI lower bound ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)} is at or below threshold ${ctx.threshold}`,\n        detail: `Bootstrap CI provides no statistical evidence the candidate is better. Consider tightening the mutation or expanding the holdout.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.contamination && ctx.contamination.leaks > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'critical',\n      kind: 'fix',\n      title: `${ctx.contamination.leaks} canary leak${ctx.contamination.leaks === 1 ? '' : 's'} detected`,\n      detail: `Holdout integrity is compromised. The lift number is unreliable until you investigate.`,\n      evidencePath: 'contamination',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.interRater && ctx.interRater.kappa < 0.5) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Inter-rater weighted kappa ${ctx.interRater.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below 0.5`,\n      detail:\n        'Raters disagree on what good looks like. Review the largest disagreement cases and refine the rubric before automating these decisions.',\n      evidencePath: 'interRater',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'investigate',\n      title: `Top failure cluster: ${top.name} (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of failures)`,\n      detail: `${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures} runs failed. The largest cluster groups ${top.exemplars.length} exemplars under '${top.name}'.`,\n      evidencePath: 'failureClusters.clusters[0]',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.outcomeCorrelation && Math.abs(ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman) < 0.3) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Judge scores decoupled from ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} (Spearman ρ=${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman.toFixed(2)})`,\n      detail: `Your judges score what they were trained to score, but it isn't predicting downstream ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric}. Consider retraining the judge against ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} as the gold signal.`,\n      evidencePath: 'outcomeCorrelation',\n    })\n  }\n\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Re-export pareto figure spec for hosted-side rendering ─────────\n\nexport type { ParetoFigureSpec 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package/dist/chunk-M7AH34KV.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/rollout/mint.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Rollout minting — `tangle.rollout.v1` lines joined from the records the\n * substrate ALREADY keeps. There is no separate rollout store: a rollout\n * is the JOIN of a RunRecord (identity, provenance, cost, outcome) with\n * its trace (spans share `runId`), projected into the canonical line.\n *\n * Composition, not duplication:\n *   - identity/provenance     → `RunRecord` (candidateId, splitTag, agentProfile, hashes)\n *   - step structure          → `buildTrajectory` over the shared TraceStore\n *   - preference-pair export  → `feedbackTrajectoryToOptimizerRow` (feedback-trajectory.ts)\n *   - PRM / reward-model      → `reward-model-export.ts`\n *\n * Anti-Goodhart invariant: a run whose `outcome.realness.gated` is true\n * is never exported with a positive reward — the gate travels into the\n * training data (`reward` forced to 0, `realness_gated: true`), so a\n * fine-tune cannot learn from gamed successes.\n *\n * Records without spans become labeled GAP LINES (messages: [],\n * provenance.gap) — present in the output AND surfaced in\n * `missingTraces`; a capture gap is a finding, never a silent omission.\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport type { LlmSpan, Message, Span, ToolSpan } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport { buildTrajectory } from '../trajectory'\nimport {\n  type ChatMessage,\n  ROLLOUT_SCHEMA,\n  type RolloutLine,\n  type RolloutRole,\n  type RolloutSplit,\n  type RolloutStep,\n} from './schema'\n\n/** Redactor applied to every exported string (secrets, PII). Identity by default. */\nexport type RolloutScrubber = (text: string) => string\n\nexport interface MintRolloutOptions {\n  scrub?: RolloutScrubber\n  /** Cap steps per line (longest runs first drop middle steps). Default: no cap. */\n  maxSteps?: number\n  /** Role recorded on every minted line. Default 'agent' (a solo eval run). */\n  role?: RolloutRole\n  /** Task suite label. Default: the record's `experimentId`. */\n  suite?: string\n  /** Injected clock for deterministic output. */\n  now?: () => Date\n}\n\nexport interface MintRolloutResult {\n  rows: RolloutLine[]\n  /** runIds that had a RunRecord but no spans — emitted as gap lines AND listed here. */\n  missingTraces: string[]\n}\n\nconst asText = (v: unknown, scrub: RolloutScrubber): string => {\n  const s = typeof v === 'string' ? v : JSON.stringify(v)\n  return scrub(s ?? '')\n}\n\nfunction projectStep(span: Span, scrub: RolloutScrubber): RolloutStep {\n  const base: RolloutStep = {\n    kind: span.kind,\n    name: scrub(span.name),\n    status: span.status,\n    durationMs: span.endedAt !== undefined ? span.endedAt - span.startedAt : undefined,\n  }\n  if (span.kind === 'llm') {\n    const llm = span as LlmSpan\n    const last = llm.messages[llm.messages.length - 1]\n    if (last) base.input = scrub(last.content)\n    if (llm.output !== undefined) base.output = scrub(llm.output)\n  } else if (span.kind === 'tool') {\n    const tool = span as ToolSpan\n    base.input = asText(tool.args, scrub)\n    if (tool.result !== undefined) base.output = asText(tool.result, scrub)\n  }\n  return base\n}\n\n/** The final llm span's history + output is the completed conversation. */\nfunction finalConversation(spans: Span[], scrub: RolloutScrubber): ChatMessage[] {\n  const llms = spans.filter((s): s is LlmSpan => s.kind === 'llm')\n  const last = llms[llms.length - 1]\n  if (!last) return []\n  const messages: ChatMessage[] = last.messages.map((m: Message) => ({\n    role: m.role,\n    content: scrub(m.content),\n  }))\n  if (last.output !== undefined && last.output !== '') {\n    messages.push({ role: 'assistant', content: scrub(last.output) })\n  }\n  return messages\n}\n\nexport function rolloutReward(record: RunRecord): { reward: number; gated: boolean } {\n  const gated = record.outcome.realness?.gated === true\n  const raw = record.outcome.holdoutScore ?? record.outcome.searchScore ?? 0\n  return { reward: gated ? 0 : raw, gated }\n}\n\nfunction rewardSource(record: RunRecord): string {\n  if (record.outcome.holdoutScore !== undefined) return 'run-record/holdout-score'\n  if (record.outcome.searchScore !== undefined) return 'run-record/search-score'\n  return 'run-record/unscored'\n}\n\nconst SPLIT_FROM_TAG: Record<RunRecord['splitTag'], RolloutSplit> = {\n  search: 'search',\n  dev: 'dev',\n  holdout: 'holdout',\n}\n\nfunction mintLine(\n  record: RunRecord,\n  steps: RolloutStep[],\n  messages: ChatMessage[],\n  options: MintRolloutOptions,\n  capturedAt: string,\n  gap?: string,\n): RolloutLine {\n  const { reward, gated } = rolloutReward(record)\n  const uncaptured = record.costProvenance?.kind === 'uncaptured'\n  return {\n    schema: ROLLOUT_SCHEMA,\n    rollout_id: record.runId,\n    parent_rollout_id: null,\n    run_id: record.runId,\n    experiment_id: record.experimentId,\n    candidate_id: record.candidateId,\n    generation: null,\n    candidate_index: null,\n    role: options.role ?? 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package/dist/chunk-MAX3TN3C.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/rollout/schema.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * `tangle.rollout.v1` — THE canonical rollout serialization, owned by\n * agent-eval. One JSONL line per agent invocation (a solo eval run, a\n * supervisor episode, a worker session, a proposer shot, a judge call, an\n * analyst pass), labeled with its task/split coordinates and a single\n * scalar reward, carrying the FULL message transcript inline.\n *\n * This schema is the reconciliation of two prior producers:\n *   - agent-eval's RunRecord-joined rollout rows (PR #410): identity,\n *     provenance hashes, the realness gate travelling into the reward,\n *     trace-derived steps.\n *   - the bench rollout-ledger (agent-runtime PR #591): the wire shape —\n *     role, task.split/rep, parent_rollout_id, policy provenance, capture\n *     provenance, inline canonical chat-with-tools messages.\n * Where the two conflicted, RunRecord-derived semantics won; the wire\n * field names follow the ledger (snake_case). See `docs/rollout.md` for\n * the field-by-field decision table.\n *\n * Messages are inlined — never referenced — because every harness store a\n * rollout can be recovered from is mutable or garbage-collected. A line\n * must stay a complete training/eval example on its own.\n *\n * `outcome.reward` is THE single scalar (null = no verdict exists — a\n * labeled gap, never 0). `outcome.realness_gated` is the anti-Goodhart\n * flag: a gated line must never export as a positive training example.\n */\n\nexport const ROLLOUT_SCHEMA = 'tangle.rollout.v1'\n/** @deprecated alias kept for consumers of the pre-unification constant name. */\nexport const ROLLOUT_FORMAT = ROLLOUT_SCHEMA\n\n/** `agent` = a solo evaluation run (no multi-agent topology). */\nexport type RolloutRole = 'agent' | 'supervisor' | 'worker' | 'proposer' | 'judge' | 'analyst'\nexport const ROLLOUT_ROLES: readonly RolloutRole[] = [\n  'agent',\n  'supervisor',\n  'worker',\n  'proposer',\n  'judge',\n  'analyst',\n]\n\n/**\n * Split vocabulary follows `RunRecord.splitTag` ('search' is the pool the\n * optimizer may read — the trainable split), extended with the ledger's\n * 'canary'. 'train' is a legacy alias for 'search' emitted by\n * pre-unification ledgers; it validates and counts as trainable, but new\n * producers must emit 'search'.\n */\nexport type RolloutSplit = 'search' | 'dev' | 'holdout' | 'canary' | 'train'\nexport const ROLLOUT_SPLITS: readonly RolloutSplit[] = [\n  'search',\n  'dev',\n  'holdout',\n  'canary',\n  'train',\n]\n/** Splits that may ship in training exports. Everything else is fail-closed excluded. */\nexport const TRAINABLE_SPLITS: readonly RolloutSplit[] = ['search', 'train']\n\nexport function isTrainableSplit(split: RolloutSplit): boolean {\n  return TRAINABLE_SPLITS.includes(split)\n}\n\n/** 'mint' = joined live from RunRecord + trace by `mintRolloutRows`. */\nexport type RolloutCapture = 'mint' | 'settle-time' | 'backfill'\nexport const ROLLOUT_CAPTURES: readonly RolloutCapture[] = ['mint', 'settle-time', 'backfill']\n\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n// Canonical message format — OpenAI chat-with-tools, full fidelity.\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nexport type ChatRole = 'system' | 'user' | 'assistant' | 'tool'\nexport const CHAT_ROLES: readonly ChatRole[] = ['system', 'user', 'assistant', 'tool']\n\nexport interface ChatToolCall {\n  id: string\n  type: 'function'\n  function: {\n    name: string\n    /** JSON-encoded argument object, exactly as the model emitted it. */\n    arguments: string\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface ChatMessage {\n  role: ChatRole\n  content: string | null\n  /** Reasoning/thinking channel where the harness captured it (full fidelity). */\n  reasoning_content?: string\n  tool_calls?: ChatToolCall[]\n  /** Required on role:\"tool\" — the ChatToolCall this result answers. */\n  tool_call_id?: string\n  name?: string\n}\n\nexport interface ToolDef {\n  type: 'function'\n  function: {\n    name: string\n    description?: string\n    parameters?: Record<string, unknown>\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Compact trace-span projection (llm/tool step) carried alongside the\n * conversation when the line was minted from a trace. Optional: lines\n * recovered from harness stores have no span structure.\n */\nexport interface RolloutStep {\n  kind: string\n  name: string\n  /** llm: last-message summary · tool: stringified args. Scrubbed. */\n  input?: string\n  /** llm: output text · tool: stringified result. Scrubbed. */\n  output?: string\n  status?: 'ok' | 'error'\n  durationMs?: number\n}\n\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n// Ledger line sections.\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nexport interface RolloutTask {\n  /** Benchmark/suite id (e.g. \"swe-bench-verified\") or the experiment id. */\n  suite: string\n  instance_id: string\n  split: RolloutSplit\n  /** Sampling seed the campaign pinned; null = not recorded. */\n  seed: number | null\n  /** Replicate index (0-based). */\n  rep: number\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutPolicy {\n  /** Harness that drove the invocation (e.g. \"opencode\", \"claude\", \"pi-loops\"). */\n  harness: string | null\n  harness_version: string | null\n  model: string | null\n  provider: string | null\n  /** Commit of the agent profile / candidate under evaluation. */\n  profile_commit: string | null\n  /** sha256 of the effective prompt (post-steering), when recorded. */\n  prompt_hash?: string | null\n  /** sha256 of the effective run config, when recorded. */\n  config_hash?: string | null\n  /** Canonical agent-profile cell identity, when the run carries one. */\n  agent_profile_cell_id?: string | null\n  /** Sampling params (temperature, top_p, max_tokens…); null = not recorded. */\n  sampling: Record<string, unknown> | null\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutOutcome {\n  /**\n   * THE single scalar training signal — the official verdict.\n   * null = no verdict exists for this invocation (a labeled gap, never 0).\n   */\n  reward: number | null\n  /** Where the reward came from (judge id; \"/inherited\" = parent episode's). */\n  reward_source: string | null\n  /** Raw judge verdict record, verbatim. */\n  verdict: unknown\n  /** Everything that is NOT the scalar reward. */\n  metrics: Record<string, unknown>\n  is_completed: boolean\n  is_truncated: boolean\n  error: string | null\n  /**\n   * Anti-Goodhart flag from `RunRecord.outcome.realness.gated`: the run\n   * faked its success signal. Reward is forced to 0 at mint time and the\n   * line never qualifies for SFT. Optional on the wire (absent = false)\n   * so pre-unification ledgers stay readable.\n   */\n  realness_gated?: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutCostBlock {\n  usd: number | null\n  tokens_in: number | null\n  tokens_out: number | null\n  tokens_reasoning: number | null\n  cache_read: number | null\n  cache_write: number | null\n  wall_s: number | null\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutArtifacts {\n  patch_path: string | null\n  run_dir: string | null\n  /** Source-of-truth transcript pointer (session id / jsonl path) for audit. */\n  transcript_ref: string | null\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutProvenance {\n  captured_at: string\n  capture: RolloutCapture\n  /** Present on gap lines: why `messages` could not be recovered. */\n  gap?: string\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutLine {\n  schema: typeof ROLLOUT_SCHEMA\n  rollout_id: string\n  /** Spawning invocation within the same episode (worker → supervisor). */\n  parent_rollout_id: string | null\n  run_id: string\n  /** Logical experiment grouping from `RunRecord.experimentId`. Optional on\n   *  the wire (pre-unification ledgers lack it); null = not recorded. */\n  experiment_id?: string | null\n  /** Stable candidate identity from `RunRecord.candidateId`; null = not recorded. */\n  candidate_id?: string | null\n  /** Improvement-loop generation (-1 = baseline); null = not an improvement loop. */\n  generation: number | null\n  /** Improvement-loop candidate index (-1 = baseline); null = not an improvement loop. */\n  candidate_index: number | null\n  role: RolloutRole\n  task: RolloutTask\n  policy: RolloutPolicy\n  /** Full transcript, inline. [] = gap line (see provenance.gap). */\n  messages: ChatMessage[]\n  tool_defs: ToolDef[]\n  /** Trace-span projections, when minted from a trace. */\n  steps?: RolloutStep[]\n  outcome: RolloutOutcome\n  cost: RolloutCostBlock\n  artifacts: RolloutArtifacts\n  provenance: RolloutProvenance\n}\n\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n// Validation — pure TS, no runtime schema dependency, mirroring the\n// run-record validator's fail-loud discipline. Returns [] when the value\n// is a valid RolloutLine; otherwise one dotted-path error per defect.\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nconst isRecord = (v: unknown): v is Record<string, unknown> =>\n  typeof v === 'object' && v !== null && !Array.isArray(v)\n\nconst isNumberOrNull = (v: unknown): boolean => v === null || typeof v === 'number'\nconst isStringOrNull = (v: unknown): boolean => v === null || typeof v === 'string'\nconst isIntegerOrNull = (v: unknown): boolean => v === null || Number.isInteger(v)\n\nfunction validateChatMessage(value: unknown, path: string, errors: string[]): void {\n  if (!isRecord(value)) {\n    errors.push(`${path}: not an object`)\n    return\n  }\n  if (!CHAT_ROLES.includes(value.role as ChatRole))\n    errors.push(`${path}.role: invalid role ${String(value.role)}`)\n  if (!isStringOrNull(value.content)) errors.push(`${path}.content: must be string|null`)\n  if (value.reasoning_content !== undefined && typeof value.reasoning_content !== 'string') {\n    errors.push(`${path}.reasoning_content: must be string when present`)\n  }\n  if (value.tool_call_id !== undefined && typeof value.tool_call_id !== 'string') {\n    errors.push(`${path}.tool_call_id: must be string when present`)\n  }\n  if (value.role === 'tool' && typeof value.tool_call_id !== 'string') {\n    errors.push(`${path}.tool_call_id: required on role:\"tool\"`)\n  }\n  if (value.tool_calls !== undefined) {\n    if (!Array.isArray(value.tool_calls)) {\n      errors.push(`${path}.tool_calls: must be an array when present`)\n    } else {\n      value.tool_calls.forEach((call, i) => {\n        if (!isRecord(call) || typeof call.id !== 'string' || call.type !== 'function') {\n          errors.push(`${path}.tool_calls[${i}]: must be {id, type:\"function\", function}`)\n          return\n        }\n        const fn = call.function\n        if (!isRecord(fn) || typeof fn.name !== 'string' || typeof fn.arguments !== 'string') {\n          errors.push(\n            `${path}.tool_calls[${i}].function: must be {name: string, arguments: string}`,\n          )\n        }\n      })\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction validateSection(\n  value: unknown,\n  path: string,\n  fields: Array<[name: string, check: (v: unknown) => boolean, expect: string]>,\n  errors: string[],\n): void {\n  if (!isRecord(value)) {\n    errors.push(`${path}: not an object`)\n    return\n  }\n  for (const [name, check, expect] of fields) {\n    if (!check(value[name])) errors.push(`${path}.${name}: expected ${expect}`)\n  }\n}\n\nexport function validateRolloutLine(value: unknown): string[] {\n  const errors: string[] = []\n  if (!isRecord(value)) return ['line: not an object']\n\n  if (value.schema !== ROLLOUT_SCHEMA) errors.push(`schema: expected \"${ROLLOUT_SCHEMA}\"`)\n  if (typeof value.rollout_id !== 'string' || value.rollout_id.length === 0)\n    errors.push('rollout_id: expected non-empty string')\n  if 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errors.push(`steps[${i}]: must be {kind: string, name: string, …}`)\n        }\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  validateSection(\n    value.outcome,\n    'outcome',\n    [\n      ['reward', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['reward_source', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n      ['metrics', isRecord, 'object'],\n      ['is_completed', (v) => typeof v === 'boolean', 'boolean'],\n      ['is_truncated', (v) => typeof v === 'boolean', 'boolean'],\n      ['error', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n    ],\n    errors,\n  )\n  if (isRecord(value.outcome)) {\n    if (!('verdict' in value.outcome)) errors.push('outcome.verdict: field required (may be null)')\n    if (\n      value.outcome.realness_gated !== undefined &&\n      typeof value.outcome.realness_gated !== 'boolean'\n    ) {\n      errors.push('outcome.realness_gated: expected boolean when present')\n    }\n  }\n\n  validateSection(\n    value.cost,\n    'cost',\n    [\n      ['usd', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['tokens_in', 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package/dist/chunk-MOXWMGPC.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/release-confidence.ts","../src/promotion-gate.ts","../src/release-report.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Release confidence gate.\n *\n * This is the production-facing composition layer over the lower-level\n * primitives:\n *   - Dataset manifests prove corpus/version coverage.\n *   - RunRecord rows prove reproducible search/holdout outcomes.\n *   - Multi-shot trace evidence carries turn counts and ASI diagnostics.\n *   - HeldOutGate decisions remain the paired promotion authority.\n *\n * The gate is intentionally pure and conservative. Missing declared evidence\n * fails closed instead of being treated as a neutral zero.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetManifest, DatasetScenario, DatasetSplit } from './dataset'\nimport { VerificationError } from './errors'\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport type { RunRecord, RunSplitTag } from './run-record'\n\n/** Severity of an actionable finding attached to a run/trace. */\nexport type AsiSeverity = 'info' | 'warning' | 'error' | 'critical'\n\n/** Actionable side-info — a diagnosed finding the loop can act on. */\nexport interface ActionableSideInfo {\n  /** Stable expectation/check id when available. */\n  expectationId?: string\n  /** Human-readable diagnosis of what happened. */\n  message: string\n  severity?: AsiSeverity\n  /** Concrete trace excerpt, file path, tool call, screenshot id, etc. */\n  evidence?: string\n  /** Prompt/tool/context surface likely responsible. */\n  responsibleSurface?: string\n  /** Suggested fix in natural language. */\n  suggestion?: string\n  /** Whether this expectation was satisfied. Defaults to false for ASI rows. */\n  matched?: boolean\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport type ReleaseConfidenceStatus = 'pass' | 'warn' | 'fail'\nexport type ReleaseConfidenceAxisName =\n  | 'corpus'\n  | 'quality'\n  | 'generalization'\n  | 'diagnostics'\n  | 'efficiency'\n\nexport interface ReleaseTraceEvidence {\n  scenarioId: string\n  candidateId?: string\n  split?: RunSplitTag\n  score?: number\n  ok?: boolean\n  turnCount?: number\n  costUsd?: number\n  durationMs?: number\n  failureMode?: string\n  asi?: ActionableSideInfo[]\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceThresholds {\n  /** Require a Dataset manifest or explicit scenarios. Default true. */\n  requireCorpus?: boolean\n  minScenarioCount?: number\n  minSearchRuns?: number\n  minHoldoutRuns?: number\n  /** Require at least one holdout scenario/run. Default true. */\n  requireHoldout?: boolean\n  minPassRate?: number\n  minMeanScore?: number\n  /** Search mean may exceed holdout mean by at most this much. */\n  maxOverfitGap?: number\n  maxMeanCostUsd?: number\n  maxP95WallMs?: number\n  /** Low-score/failed rows must carry ASI. Default true. */\n  requireAsiForFailures?: boolean\n  /** Score below this is considered a failure for ASI coverage. Default 0.5. */\n  failureScoreThreshold?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceInput {\n  target: string\n  candidateId?: string\n  baselineId?: string\n  dataset?: DatasetManifest\n  scenarios?: readonly DatasetScenario[]\n  runs?: readonly RunRecord[]\n  traces?: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[]\n  gateDecision?: GateDecision | null\n  thresholds?: ReleaseConfidenceThresholds\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceAxis {\n  name: ReleaseConfidenceAxisName\n  status: ReleaseConfidenceStatus\n  score: number\n  detail: string\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceIssue {\n  axis: ReleaseConfidenceAxisName\n  severity: 'critical' | 'warning'\n  code: string\n  detail: string\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceMetrics {\n  scenarioCount: number\n  searchRuns: number\n  holdoutRuns: number\n  passRate: number\n  meanScore: number\n  searchMeanScore: number\n  holdoutMeanScore: number\n  overfitGap: number\n  meanCostUsd: number\n  p95WallMs: number\n  failedRows: number\n  failuresWithAsi: number\n  singleShotTraces: number\n  multiShotTraces: number\n  splitCounts: Record<DatasetSplit, number>\n  domainCounts: Record<string, number>\n  failureModeCounts: Record<string, number>\n  responsibleSurfaceCounts: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceScorecard {\n  target: string\n  candidateId: string | null\n  baselineId: string | null\n  status: ReleaseConfidenceStatus\n  promote: boolean\n  axes: ReleaseConfidenceAxis[]\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[]\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics\n  dataset: DatasetManifest | null\n  gateDecision: GateDecision | null\n  summary: string\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_THRESHOLDS: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds> = {\n  requireCorpus: true,\n  minScenarioCount: 1,\n  minSearchRuns: 1,\n  minHoldoutRuns: 1,\n  requireHoldout: true,\n  minPassRate: 0.8,\n  minMeanScore: 0.7,\n  maxOverfitGap: 0.15,\n  maxMeanCostUsd: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n  maxP95WallMs: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n  requireAsiForFailures: true,\n  failureScoreThreshold: 0.5,\n}\n\nexport function evaluateReleaseConfidence(\n  input: ReleaseConfidenceInput,\n): ReleaseConfidenceScorecard {\n  const thresholds = { ...DEFAULT_THRESHOLDS, ...input.thresholds }\n  const candidateId = input.candidateId ?? null\n  const runs = filterCandidate(input.runs ?? [], candidateId, input.baselineId)\n  const traces = filterTraceCandidate(input.traces ?? [], candidateId, input.baselineId)\n  const scenarios = input.scenarios ?? []\n  const scenarioCount = input.dataset?.scenarioCount ?? scenarios.length\n  const splitCounts = input.dataset?.splitCounts ?? countScenarioSplits(scenarios)\n  const searchScores = scoresFor(runs, 'search')\n  const holdoutScores = scoresFor(runs, 'holdout')\n  const allScores = [...searchScores, ...holdoutScores]\n  const traceScores = traces.map((t) => t.score).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const scoreUniverse = allScores.length > 0 ? allScores : traceScores\n  const searchRuns = runs.filter((r) => r.splitTag === 'search').length\n  const holdoutRuns = runs.filter((r) => r.splitTag === 'holdout').length\n  const searchMeanScore = mean(searchScores)\n  const holdoutMeanScore = mean(holdoutScores)\n  const metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics = {\n    scenarioCount,\n    searchRuns,\n    holdoutRuns,\n    passRate: passRate(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold),\n    meanScore: mean(scoreUniverse),\n    searchMeanScore,\n    holdoutMeanScore,\n    overfitGap: safeDiff(searchMeanScore, holdoutMeanScore),\n    meanCostUsd: mean([\n      ...runs.map((r) => r.costUsd),\n      ...traces.map((t) => t.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber),\n    ]),\n    p95WallMs: percentile(\n      [...runs.map((r) => r.wallMs), ...traces.map((t) => t.durationMs).filter(isFiniteNumber)],\n      0.95,\n    ),\n    failedRows: failedRows(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold).length,\n    failuresWithAsi: failedRows(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold).filter(\n      (row) => row.hasAsi,\n    ).length,\n    singleShotTraces: traces.filter((t) => t.turnCount === 1).length,\n    multiShotTraces: traces.filter((t) => (t.turnCount ?? 0) > 1).length,\n    splitCounts,\n    domainCounts: countDomains(scenarios),\n    failureModeCounts: countFailureModes(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold),\n    responsibleSurfaceCounts: countResponsibleSurfaces(traces),\n  }\n\n  const issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[] = []\n  checkCorpus(input, thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkQuality(thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkGeneralization(input.gateDecision ?? null, thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkDiagnostics(thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkEfficiency(thresholds, metrics, issues)\n\n  const axes = buildAxes(metrics, thresholds, input.gateDecision ?? null, issues)\n  const status = issues.some((i) => i.severity === 'critical')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : issues.length > 0\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n\n  return {\n    target: input.target,\n    candidateId,\n    baselineId: input.baselineId ?? null,\n    status,\n    promote: status === 'pass' && (input.gateDecision ? input.gateDecision.promote : true),\n    axes,\n    issues,\n    metrics,\n    dataset: input.dataset ?? null,\n    gateDecision: input.gateDecision ?? null,\n    summary: renderSummary(input.target, status, metrics, issues),\n  }\n}\n\nexport function assertReleaseConfidence(input: ReleaseConfidenceInput): ReleaseConfidenceScorecard {\n  const scorecard = evaluateReleaseConfidence(input)\n  if (scorecard.status === 'fail') {\n    throw new VerificationError(scorecard.summary)\n  }\n  return scorecard\n}\n\nfunction filterCandidate(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string | null,\n  baselineId?: string,\n): RunRecord[] {\n  if (candidateId) return runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId)\n  if (baselineId) return runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId !== baselineId)\n  return [...runs]\n}\n\nfunction filterTraceCandidate(\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  candidateId: string | null,\n  baselineId?: string,\n): ReleaseTraceEvidence[] {\n  if (candidateId)\n    return traces.filter((t) => t.candidateId === undefined || t.candidateId === candidateId)\n  if (baselineId)\n    return traces.filter((t) => t.candidateId === undefined || t.candidateId !== baselineId)\n  return [...traces]\n}\n\nfunction checkCorpus(\n  input: ReleaseConfidenceInput,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (thresholds.requireCorpus && !input.dataset && (input.scenarios?.length ?? 0) === 0) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'corpus',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_corpus',\n      detail: 'No Dataset manifest or scenarios supplied.',\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.scenarioCount < thresholds.minScenarioCount) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'corpus',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'few_scenarios',\n      detail: `${metrics.scenarioCount} scenario(s) < min ${thresholds.minScenarioCount}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (thresholds.requireHoldout && metrics.splitCounts.holdout === 0) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'corpus',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_holdout_split',\n      detail: 'Corpus has no holdout scenarios.',\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkQuality(\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (metrics.searchRuns < thresholds.minSearchRuns) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'quality',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'few_search_runs',\n      detail: `${metrics.searchRuns} search run(s) < min ${thresholds.minSearchRuns}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.passRate < thresholds.minPassRate) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'quality',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'low_pass_rate',\n      detail: `passRate ${fmt(metrics.passRate)} < ${fmt(thresholds.minPassRate)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.meanScore < thresholds.minMeanScore) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'quality',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'low_mean_score',\n      detail: `meanScore ${fmt(metrics.meanScore)} < ${fmt(thresholds.minMeanScore)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkGeneralization(\n  gateDecision: GateDecision | null,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (thresholds.requireHoldout && metrics.holdoutRuns < thresholds.minHoldoutRuns) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'generalization',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'few_holdout_runs',\n      detail: `${metrics.holdoutRuns} holdout run(s) < min ${thresholds.minHoldoutRuns}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (Number.isFinite(metrics.overfitGap) && metrics.overfitGap > thresholds.maxOverfitGap) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'generalization',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'overfit_gap',\n      detail: `search-holdout gap ${fmt(metrics.overfitGap)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxOverfitGap)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (gateDecision && !gateDecision.promote) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'generalization',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: `gate_${gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? 'reject'}`,\n      detail: gateDecision.reason,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkDiagnostics(\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (!thresholds.requireAsiForFailures) return\n  if (metrics.failedRows > metrics.failuresWithAsi) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'diagnostics',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_failure_asi',\n      detail: `${metrics.failedRows - metrics.failuresWithAsi} failed row(s) have no actionable side information.`,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkEfficiency(\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (metrics.meanCostUsd > thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'efficiency',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'cost_budget',\n      detail: `meanCostUsd ${fmt(metrics.meanCostUsd)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.p95WallMs > thresholds.maxP95WallMs) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'efficiency',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'latency_budget',\n      detail: `p95WallMs ${fmt(metrics.p95WallMs)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxP95WallMs)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildAxes(\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  gateDecision: GateDecision | null,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): ReleaseConfidenceAxis[] {\n  return [\n    axis(\n      'corpus',\n      issues,\n      bounded(metrics.scenarioCount / Math.max(1, thresholds.minScenarioCount)),\n      `${metrics.scenarioCount} scenarios; holdout=${metrics.splitCounts.holdout}`,\n    ),\n    axis(\n      'quality',\n      issues,\n      Math.min(metrics.passRate, metrics.meanScore),\n      `passRate=${fmt(metrics.passRate)} meanScore=${fmt(metrics.meanScore)}`,\n    ),\n    axis(\n      'generalization',\n      issues,\n      gateDecision && !gateDecision.promote\n        ? 0\n        : gapScore(metrics.overfitGap, thresholds.maxOverfitGap),\n      `holdoutRuns=${metrics.holdoutRuns} overfitGap=${fmt(metrics.overfitGap)}`,\n    ),\n    axis(\n      'diagnostics',\n      issues,\n      metrics.failedRows === 0 ? 1 : metrics.failuresWithAsi / metrics.failedRows,\n      `failuresWithAsi=${metrics.failuresWithAsi}/${metrics.failedRows}`,\n    ),\n    axis(\n      'efficiency',\n      issues,\n      efficiencyScore(metrics, thresholds),\n      `meanCostUsd=${fmt(metrics.meanCostUsd)} p95WallMs=${fmt(metrics.p95WallMs)}`,\n    ),\n  ]\n}\n\nfunction axis(\n  name: ReleaseConfidenceAxisName,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n  score: number,\n  detail: string,\n): ReleaseConfidenceAxis {\n  const own = issues.filter((i) => i.axis === name)\n  const status = own.some((i) => i.severity === 'critical')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : own.length > 0\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return { name, status, score: bounded(score), detail }\n}\n\nfunction countScenarioSplits(scenarios: readonly DatasetScenario[]): Record<DatasetSplit, number> {\n  const counts: Record<DatasetSplit, number> = { train: 0, dev: 0, test: 0, holdout: 0 }\n  for (const scenario of scenarios) counts[scenario.split ?? 'train']++\n  return counts\n}\n\nfunction countDomains(scenarios: readonly DatasetScenario[]): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const scenario of scenarios) {\n    const domain = scenario.tags?.domain ?? scenario.tags?.category ?? 'uncategorized'\n    out[domain] = (out[domain] ?? 0) + 1\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction countFailureModes(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  threshold: number,\n): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const score = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore\n    if (run.failureMode || (score !== undefined && score < threshold)) {\n      const mode = run.failureMode ?? 'low_score'\n      out[mode] = (out[mode] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  for (const trace of traces) {\n    if (\n      trace.failureMode ||\n      trace.ok === false ||\n      (trace.score !== undefined && trace.score < threshold)\n    ) {\n      const mode = trace.failureMode ?? (trace.ok === false ? 'not_ok' : 'low_score')\n      out[mode] = (out[mode] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction countResponsibleSurfaces(traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[]): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const trace of traces) {\n    for (const asi of trace.asi ?? []) {\n      const surface = asi.responsibleSurface ?? 'unknown'\n      out[surface] = (out[surface] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction failedRows(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  threshold: number,\n): Array<{ hasAsi: boolean }> {\n  const out: Array<{ hasAsi: boolean }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const score = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore\n    if (run.failureMode || (score !== undefined && score < threshold)) {\n      const asiMetric = run.outcome.raw.asi\n      out.push({ hasAsi: typeof asiMetric === 'number' && asiMetric > 0 })\n    }\n  }\n  for (const trace of traces) {\n    if (\n      trace.failureMode ||\n      trace.ok === false ||\n      (trace.score !== undefined && trace.score < threshold)\n    ) {\n      out.push({ hasAsi: (trace.asi?.length ?? 0) > 0 })\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction passRate(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  threshold: number,\n): number {\n  const outcomes = [\n    ...runs.map((run) => {\n      const score = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore\n      return !run.failureMode && score !== undefined && score >= threshold\n    }),\n    ...traces.map(\n      (trace) => trace.ok !== false && (trace.score === undefined || trace.score >= threshold),\n    ),\n  ]\n  if (outcomes.length === 0) return 0\n  return outcomes.filter(Boolean).length / outcomes.length\n}\n\nfunction scoresFor(runs: readonly RunRecord[], split: RunSplitTag): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.splitTag === split)\n    .map((run) => (split === 'holdout' ? run.outcome.holdoutScore : run.outcome.searchScore))\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: readonly number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN\n  return xs.reduce((sum, x) => sum + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction percentile(xs: readonly number[], p: number): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN\n  const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  return sorted[Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.max(0, Math.ceil(p * sorted.length) - 1))]!\n}\n\nfunction isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\nfunction safeDiff(a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(a) || !Number.isFinite(b)) return Number.NaN\n  return a - b\n}\n\nfunction gapScore(gap: number, maxGap: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(gap)) return 0\n  if (maxGap <= 0) return gap <= 0 ? 1 : 0\n  return bounded(1 - Math.max(0, gap) / maxGap)\n}\n\nfunction efficiencyScore(\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n): number {\n  const cost =\n    Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) && Number.isFinite(metrics.meanCostUsd)\n      ? bounded(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd / Math.max(metrics.meanCostUsd, 1e-12))\n      : 1\n  const latency =\n    Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxP95WallMs) && Number.isFinite(metrics.p95WallMs)\n      ? bounded(thresholds.maxP95WallMs / Math.max(metrics.p95WallMs, 1e-12))\n      : 1\n  return Math.min(cost, latency)\n}\n\nfunction bounded(x: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n  return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n\nfunction renderSummary(\n  target: string,\n  status: ReleaseConfidenceStatus,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): string {\n  const prefix = `release confidence ${status}: ${target}`\n  const metricText = `scenarios=${metrics.scenarioCount} searchRuns=${metrics.searchRuns} holdoutRuns=${metrics.holdoutRuns} passRate=${fmt(metrics.passRate)} meanScore=${fmt(metrics.meanScore)}`\n  if (issues.length === 0) return `${prefix}; ${metricText}`\n  return `${prefix}; ${metricText}; issues=${issues.map((i) => i.code).join(',')}`\n}\n\nfunction fmt(x: number): string {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x)\n  return x.toFixed(4)\n}\n","/**\n * Bootstrap-CI promotion gate.\n *\n * In any iterative-improvement loop (GEPA, prompt evolution, dataset\n * curation), the question is \"did this generation actually improve, or are\n * we celebrating noise?\". With small N and noisy outcomes, point-estimate\n * deltas lie. Bootstrap confidence intervals tell the operator whether the\n * delta is real before code or prompts get promoted.\n *\n * This module is pure functions — no I/O, no model calls. Easy to unit-test\n * and to compose into any verdict gate.\n *\n * Default gate:\n *   - Bootstrap mean baseline vs candidate (1k resamples).\n *   - Compute the delta distribution; pass if the lower CI bound > 0.\n *   - Tunable confidence (default 95%) and resample count.\n *\n * Verdict semantics intentionally match the existing `experiments.jsonl`\n * vocabulary:\n *   - ADVANCE: candidate's CI lower bound > baseline mean (real win)\n *   - KEEP:    overlap, but candidate point estimate >= baseline (neutral)\n *   - REVERT:  candidate's CI upper bound < baseline mean (real regression)\n *   - INCONCLUSIVE: not enough samples or CI straddles zero with no signal\n */\n\nexport type Verdict = 'ADVANCE' | 'KEEP' | 'REVERT' | 'INCONCLUSIVE'\n\nexport interface BootstrapResult {\n  baselineMean: number\n  candidateMean: number\n  /** candidateMean - baselineMean, point estimate. */\n  delta: number\n  /** Lower bound of the (1 - alpha) CI on the delta. */\n  ciLower: number\n  /** Upper bound of the (1 - alpha) CI on the delta. */\n  ciUpper: number\n  /** Number of bootstrap resamples used. */\n  iterations: number\n  alpha: number\n  verdict: Verdict\n}\n\nexport interface BootstrapOptions {\n  /** Confidence level alpha (default 0.05 → 95% CI). */\n  alpha?: number\n  /** Number of resamples (default 1000). */\n  iterations?: number\n  /**\n   * Minimum total samples (baseline + candidate) below which we always\n   * return INCONCLUSIVE — bootstrap with too few samples is meaningless.\n   * Default 6 (combined).\n   */\n  minTotalSamples?: number\n  /** RNG seed for reproducibility. Default: Math.random. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Compute the bootstrap CI on (candidateMean - baselineMean) and a verdict.\n *\n * Uses simple percentile bootstrap on the difference of resampled means.\n * That's the standard non-parametric primitive — no distributional\n * assumptions, robust to skew, easy to reason about.\n */\nexport function bootstrapCi(\n  baseline: number[],\n  candidate: number[],\n  options: BootstrapOptions = {},\n): BootstrapResult {\n  const alpha = options.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const iterations = options.iterations ?? 1000\n  const minTotal = options.minTotalSamples ?? 6\n  const rng = mulberry32(options.seed ?? hashSeed(baseline, candidate))\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(baseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(candidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  if (\n    baseline.length + candidate.length < minTotal ||\n    baseline.length === 0 ||\n    candidate.length === 0\n  ) {\n    return {\n      baselineMean,\n      candidateMean,\n      delta,\n      ciLower: -Infinity,\n      ciUpper: Infinity,\n      iterations: 0,\n      alpha,\n      verdict: 'INCONCLUSIVE',\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas: number[] = new Array(iterations)\n  for (let i = 0; i < iterations; i++) {\n    const bResample = resample(baseline, rng)\n    const cResample = resample(candidate, rng)\n    deltas[i] = mean(cResample) - mean(bResample)\n  }\n  deltas.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const lowerIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * iterations)\n  const upperIdx = Math.floor((1 - alpha / 2) * iterations) - 1\n  const ciLower = deltas[Math.max(0, lowerIdx)]!\n  const ciUpper = deltas[Math.min(iterations - 1, upperIdx)]!\n\n  let verdict: Verdict\n  if (ciLower > 0) verdict = 'ADVANCE'\n  else if (ciUpper < 0) verdict = 'REVERT'\n  else if (delta >= 0) verdict = 'KEEP'\n  else verdict = 'INCONCLUSIVE'\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ciLower,\n    ciUpper,\n    iterations,\n    alpha,\n    verdict,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  let s = 0\n  for (const x of xs) s += x\n  return s / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction resample(xs: number[], rng: () => number): number[] {\n  const out = new Array(xs.length)\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) out[i] = xs[Math.floor(rng() * xs.length)]\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Mulberry32 — fast deterministic PRNG. Stable across runs given the same seed. */\nfunction mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {\n  let t = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    t += 0x6d2b79f5\n    let r = t\n    r = Math.imul(r ^ (r >>> 15), r | 1)\n    r ^= r + Math.imul(r ^ (r >>> 7), r | 61)\n    return ((r ^ (r >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n\n/** Stable seed derived from the inputs — same data → same CI bounds. */\nfunction hashSeed(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  let h = 2166136261\n  for (const x of [...a, ...b]) {\n    const view = new Float64Array([x])\n    const bytes = new Uint8Array(view.buffer)\n    for (const byte of bytes) {\n      h ^= byte\n      h = Math.imul(h, 16777619)\n    }\n  }\n  return h >>> 0\n}\n\n/**\n * Judge-replay promotion gate.\n *\n * The cheap inner-loop judge that drives an evolution run is by definition\n * fast and noisy. When you're about to promote a winning variant to the\n * canonical default, you want a STRONGER judge (a more expensive model, a\n * human grader, a separately-trained reward model) to confirm the win\n * generalises beyond the inner loop.\n *\n * This helper takes raw winner + baseline outputs, scores both through the\n * stronger judge, and applies `bootstrapCi`. ADVANCE means the stronger\n * judge agrees the winner is real with the configured confidence. Doesn't\n * matter what shape your \"output\" is — pass a string, an object, anything\n * the judge can read.\n */\nexport interface JudgeReplayGateArgs<TOutput> {\n  baselineOutputs: TOutput[]\n  candidateOutputs: TOutput[]\n  /** Stronger judge — async to allow LLM calls. Return a 0..N scalar score. */\n  judge: (output: TOutput) => Promise<number> | number\n  alpha?: number\n  iterations?: number\n  /** RNG seed for reproducibility. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Maximum concurrent judge calls. Default 4. */\n  judgeConcurrency?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Confirm a candidate's win with a stronger judge: score baseline and candidate outputs independently, then bootstrap a CI to verify the lift generalises beyond the inner loop.\n */\nexport async function judgeReplayGate<TOutput>(\n  args: JudgeReplayGateArgs<TOutput>,\n): Promise<BootstrapResult & { baselineSamples: number; candidateSamples: number }> {\n  const concurrency = args.judgeConcurrency ?? 4\n  const baselineScores = await scoreAll(args.baselineOutputs, args.judge, concurrency)\n  const candidateScores = await scoreAll(args.candidateOutputs, args.judge, concurrency)\n  const ci = bootstrapCi(baselineScores, candidateScores, {\n    ...(args.alpha !== undefined ? { alpha: args.alpha } : {}),\n    ...(args.iterations !== undefined ? { iterations: args.iterations } : {}),\n    ...(args.seed !== undefined ? { seed: args.seed } : {}),\n  })\n  return {\n    ...ci,\n    baselineSamples: baselineScores.length,\n    candidateSamples: candidateScores.length,\n  }\n}\n\nasync function scoreAll<TOutput>(\n  outputs: TOutput[],\n  judge: (output: TOutput) => Promise<number> | number,\n  concurrency: number,\n): Promise<number[]> {\n  const results: number[] = new Array(outputs.length)\n  let next = 0\n  async function worker(): Promise<void> {\n    while (true) {\n      const i = next++\n      if (i >= outputs.length) return\n      const v = await judge(outputs[i]!)\n      results[i] = Number.isFinite(v) ? v : 0\n    }\n  }\n  await Promise.all(Array.from({ length: Math.max(1, concurrency) }, () => worker()))\n  return results\n}\n","import type { ReleaseConfidenceScorecard } from './release-confidence'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport { summaryTable } from './summary-report'\n\nexport interface RenderReleaseReportOptions {\n  title?: string\n  runs?: readonly RunRecord[]\n  comparator?: string\n  traceAnalystFindings?: readonly string[]\n  nextActions?: readonly string[]\n}\n\nexport function renderReleaseReport(\n  scorecard: ReleaseConfidenceScorecard,\n  options: RenderReleaseReportOptions = {},\n): string {\n  const title = options.title ?? `Release Report: ${scorecard.target}`\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`Status: **${scorecard.status.toUpperCase()}**`)\n  lines.push(`Promote: **${scorecard.promote ? 'yes' : 'no'}**`)\n  if (scorecard.candidateId) lines.push(`Candidate: \\`${scorecard.candidateId}\\``)\n  if (scorecard.baselineId) lines.push(`Baseline: \\`${scorecard.baselineId}\\``)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(scorecard.summary)\n  lines.push('')\n\n  lines.push('## Metrics')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('| Metric | Value |')\n  lines.push('|---|---:|')\n  lines.push(`| Scenarios | ${scorecard.metrics.scenarioCount} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Search runs | ${scorecard.metrics.searchRuns} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Holdout runs | ${scorecard.metrics.holdoutRuns} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Pass rate | ${pct(scorecard.metrics.passRate)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Mean score | ${num(scorecard.metrics.meanScore)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Search mean | ${num(scorecard.metrics.searchMeanScore)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Holdout mean | ${num(scorecard.metrics.holdoutMeanScore)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Overfit gap | ${num(scorecard.metrics.overfitGap)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Mean cost | $${num(scorecard.metrics.meanCostUsd)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| p95 wall time | ${Math.round(scorecard.metrics.p95WallMs)} ms |`)\n  lines.push('')\n\n  if (scorecard.issues.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Issues')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const issue of scorecard.issues) {\n      lines.push(`- **${issue.severity}** \\`${issue.code}\\` (${issue.axis}): ${issue.detail}`)\n    }\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  const surfaces = entries(scorecard.metrics.responsibleSurfaceCounts)\n  if (surfaces.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Responsible Surfaces')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const [surface, count] of surfaces) lines.push(`- ${surface}: ${count}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  const failures = entries(scorecard.metrics.failureModeCounts)\n  if (failures.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Failure Modes')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const [mode, count] of failures) lines.push(`- ${mode}: ${count}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  if (options.runs && options.runs.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Run Summary')\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push(\n      summaryTable([...options.runs], {\n        comparator: options.comparator ?? scorecard.baselineId ?? undefined,\n        split: 'holdout',\n      }).markdown,\n    )\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  if (options.traceAnalystFindings && options.traceAnalystFindings.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## TraceAnalyst Findings')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const finding of options.traceAnalystFindings) lines.push(`- ${finding}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  const nextActions = options.nextActions ?? defaultNextActions(scorecard)\n  if (nextActions.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Next Actions')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const action of nextActions) lines.push(`- ${action}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  return `${lines.join('\\n').trimEnd()}\\n`\n}\n\nfunction defaultNextActions(scorecard: ReleaseConfidenceScorecard): string[] {\n  if (scorecard.promote) return ['Promote the candidate and keep canaries enabled.']\n  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