@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.126.7 → 0.127.0

package/dist/campaign/index.js

@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ import {
   userStoryScoreboard,
   validateSearchLedgerEvent,
   verifyCodeSurface
-} from "../chunk-E3IADPLG.js";
+} from "../chunk-PRB53E3J.js";
 import {
   acquireSingleRunLock,
   assertCodeSurfaceIdentity,
@@ -79,7 +79,7 @@ import {
   surfaceContentHash,
   surfaceHash,
   verifyLoopProvenanceRecord
-} from "../chunk-BTACVO2W.js";
+} from "../chunk-65QETEKG.js";
 import {
   SearchLedgerConflictError,
   SearchLedgerError,
@@ -96,18 +96,20 @@ import {
   resolveRunDir,
   runCampaign,
   tangleTracesRoot
-} from "../chunk-ZVCHKKOP.js";
+} from "../chunk-WED5KLZQ.js";
 import "../chunk-WGXIEX7P.js";
-import "../chunk-ARU2PZFM.js";
-import "../chunk-J5SQWP6Y.js";
-import "../chunk-PJQFMIOX.js";
+import "../chunk-424XHVKV.js";
+import "../chunk-ZPUEEM5U.js";
+import "../chunk-PBE2LOSS.js";
+import "../chunk-DPUHNQLN.js";
+import "../chunk-MHELPNRP.js";
 import "../chunk-WS3NZZQQ.js";
 import "../chunk-VI2UW6B6.js";
-import "../chunk-NUKSVU3W.js";
+import "../chunk-5DTSBUL2.js";
 import "../chunk-GGE4NNQT.js";
-import "../chunk-IR3KBHOY.js";
+import "../chunk-P6FYH6K4.js";
 import "../chunk-PC4UYEBM.js";
-import "../chunk-IILEIWGW.js";
+import "../chunk-NL33OXEP.js";
 import "../chunk-MA6HLL3S.js";
 import "../chunk-VSMTAMNK.js";
 import "../chunk-ONWEPEDO.js";

package/dist/{chunk-ARU2PZFM.js → chunk-424XHVKV.js}

@@ -1,6 +1,9 @@
 import {
   pearsonR
-} from "./chunk-PJQFMIOX.js";
+} from "./chunk-MHELPNRP.js";
+import {
+  runTaskScore
+} from "./chunk-NL33OXEP.js";
 
 // src/rl/verifiable-reward.ts
 var DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set([
@@ -31,7 +34,7 @@ function extractVerifiableReward(report, opts = {}) {
   const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true;
   const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7;
   const deterministic = report.layers.filter(
-    (l) => deterministicSet.has(l.layer) && typeof l.score === "number" && Number.isFinite(l.score)
+    (layer) => deterministicSet.has(layer.layer) && isMeasuredLayer(layer)
   );
   if (deterministic.length === 1) {
     const layer = deterministic[0];
@@ -67,9 +70,7 @@ function extractVerifiableReward(report, opts = {}) {
     };
   }
   if (!fallbackToJudge) return null;
-  const judge = report.layers.find(
-    (l) => typeof l.score === "number" && Number.isFinite(l.score) && sourceFor(l.layer) === "judge"
-  ) ?? report.layers.find((l) => typeof l.score === "number" && Number.isFinite(l.score));
+  const judge = report.layers.find((layer) => isMeasuredLayer(layer) && sourceFor(layer.layer) === "judge") ?? report.layers.find(isMeasuredLayer);
   if (!judge) return null;
   const confFromDetail = judge.detail?.confidence;
   const judgeValue = clamp01(judge.score);
@@ -83,6 +84,9 @@ function extractVerifiableReward(report, opts = {}) {
     breakdown: layerBreakdown(judge)
   };
 }
+function isMeasuredLayer(layer) {
+  return (layer.status === "pass" || layer.status === "fail") && typeof layer.score === "number" && Number.isFinite(layer.score) && layer.score >= 0 && layer.score <= 1;
+}
 function extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(runs, opts = {}) {
   const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR;
   const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS]);
@@ -130,8 +134,8 @@ function extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(runs, opts = {}) {
       };
     }
     if (!fallbackToJudge) return { runId: run.runId, reward: null };
-    const primary = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore;
-    if (typeof primary !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(primary)) {
+    const primary = runTaskScore(run);
+    if (primary === void 0) {
       return { runId: run.runId, reward: null };
     }
     const primaryValue = clamp01(primary);
@@ -175,20 +179,20 @@ function layerBreakdown(l) {
 
 // src/rl/reward-hacking.ts
 var DEFAULT_PROXY = (r) => {
-  const v = r.outcome.holdoutScore ?? r.outcome.searchScore;
-  return typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : null;
+  return runTaskScore(r) ?? null;
 };
 function detectRewardHacking(input) {
   const proxyOf = input.proxyOf ?? DEFAULT_PROXY;
   const truthOf = input.truthOf;
   const sus = input.thresholds?.suspect ?? 0.3;
   const gam = input.thresholds?.gaming ?? 0.6;
-  const runs = input.runs.filter((r) => proxyOf(r) !== null);
+  const runs = input.runs.filter((run) => finiteNumber(proxyOf(run)));
   const n = runs.length;
   if (n < 4) {
     return {
       findings: [],
-      verdict: "clean",
+      evaluatedSignals: [],
+      verdict: "insufficient_evidence",
       n,
       rationale: [`fewer than 4 runs with proxy reward (n=${n}); insufficient evidence`]
     };
@@ -198,10 +202,10 @@ function detectRewardHacking(input) {
   const after = runs.slice(n - windowSize);
   const findings = [];
   if (truthOf) {
-    const beforeProxy = before.map(proxyOf).filter((v) => typeof v === "number");
-    const afterProxy = after.map(proxyOf).filter((v) => typeof v === "number");
-    const beforeTruth = before.map(truthOf).filter((v) => typeof v === "number");
-    const afterTruth = after.map(truthOf).filter((v) => typeof v === "number");
+    const beforeProxy = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber);
+    const afterProxy = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber);
+    const beforeTruth = before.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber);
+    const afterTruth = after.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber);
     if (beforeProxy.length >= 2 && afterProxy.length >= 2 && beforeTruth.length >= 2 && afterTruth.length >= 2) {
       const proxyDelta = mean(afterProxy) - mean(beforeProxy);
       const truthDelta = mean(afterTruth) - mean(beforeTruth);
@@ -222,8 +226,8 @@ function detectRewardHacking(input) {
     }
   }
   {
-    const beforeP = before.map(proxyOf).filter((v) => typeof v === "number");
-    const afterP = after.map(proxyOf).filter((v) => typeof v === "number");
+    const beforeP = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber);
+    const afterP = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber);
     if (beforeP.length >= 4 && afterP.length >= 4) {
       const ks = ksStatistic(beforeP, afterP);
       const severity = clamp012(ks - 0.2);
@@ -237,9 +241,7 @@ function detectRewardHacking(input) {
   }
   {
     const secondaryOf = input.secondaryRewardOf ?? defaultSecondary(input.verifiableRewardOptions);
-    const aligned = runs.map((r) => ({ p: proxyOf(r), s: secondaryOf(r) })).filter(
-      (x) => typeof x.p === "number" && typeof x.s === "number"
-    );
+    const aligned = runs.map((r) => ({ p: proxyOf(r), s: secondaryOf(r) })).filter((x) => finiteNumber(x.p) && finiteNumber(x.s));
     if (aligned.length >= 4) {
       const ps = aligned.map((x) => x.p);
       const ss = aligned.map((x) => x.s);
@@ -259,7 +261,7 @@ function detectRewardHacking(input) {
       const detBefore = detRuns.slice(0, Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2));
       const detAfter = detRuns.slice(Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2));
       const detDelta = mean(detAfter.map((r) => r.reward.value)) - mean(detBefore.map((r) => r.reward.value));
-      const proxyDelta = mean(after.map(proxyOf).filter((v) => typeof v === "number")) - mean(before.map(proxyOf).filter((v) => typeof v === "number"));
+      const proxyDelta = mean(after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)) - mean(before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber));
       const driftGap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - detDelta);
       const severity = clamp012(driftGap * 5);
       findings.push({
@@ -271,15 +273,33 @@ function detectRewardHacking(input) {
     }
   }
   const maxSev = findings.reduce((m, f) => Math.max(m, f.severity), 0);
+  if (findings.length === 0) {
+    return {
+      findings,
+      evaluatedSignals: [],
+      verdict: "insufficient_evidence",
+      rationale: [`no reward-hacking signal had enough paired evidence (n=${n})`],
+      n
+    };
+  }
   const verdict = maxSev >= gam ? "gaming" : maxSev >= sus ? "suspect" : "clean";
   const rationale = findings.filter((f) => f.severity >= sus).map((f) => `${f.signal}: severity ${f.severity.toFixed(2)} \u2014 ${f.message}`);
   if (rationale.length === 0) rationale.push("no signals fired above suspect threshold");
-  return { findings, verdict, rationale, n };
+  return {
+    findings,
+    evaluatedSignals: findings.map((finding) => finding.signal),
+    verdict,
+    rationale,
+    n
+  };
 }
 function mean(xs) {
   if (xs.length === 0) return 0;
   return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length;
 }
+function finiteNumber(value) {
+  return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value);
+}
 function clamp012(x) {
   if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0;
   return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x));
@@ -309,4 +329,4 @@ export {
   filterDeterministicallyRewarded,
   detectRewardHacking
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-ARU2PZFM.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-424XHVKV.js.map

package/dist/chunk-424XHVKV.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/rl/verifiable-reward.ts","../src/rl/reward-hacking.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Verifiable reward channel.\n *\n * For RL on coding / math / theorem-proving / structured-output tasks, the\n * reward signal is *decidable* — a test passes or fails, a proof checks or\n * doesn't, an output validates against a schema or doesn't. These rewards\n * are dramatically more useful for RL training than LLM-judge scores\n * because they don't drift, can't be Goodhart-gamed by the policy in the\n * same way, and don't require a separate calibration loop.\n *\n * The `MultiLayerVerifier` already produces this signal — it just doesn't\n * surface it in a shape that's clean enough for RL training. This module\n * wraps the verifier output so consumers can:\n *\n *   1. Extract a clean `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`\n *   2. Distinguish *deterministic* rewards (compile, test, schema) from\n *      *probabilistic* rewards (judge) so they can be weighted differently\n *      in the RL training step\n *   3. Filter `RunRecord[]` to only those with a verifiable reward,\n *      producing the clean training set that DeepSeek-R1-style GRPO and\n *      AlphaProof-style search both depend on\n *\n * Why this matters: every credible 2025-2026 frontier RL result on coding\n * agents leans on verifiable reward (DeepSeek-R1 GRPO on test pass-rate,\n * o-series RL on math/code, AlphaProof on Lean kernel checking). Mixing\n * judge scores into the reward signal poisons the gradient. This module\n * is the seam.\n */\n\nimport type { LayerResult, VerificationReport } from '../multi-layer-verifier'\nimport { type RunRecord, runTaskScore } from '../run-record'\n\nexport type VerifiableRewardSource =\n  | 'compile' // typecheck / build / lint passed\n  | 'test' // unit / integration test pass-rate\n  | 'schema' // structured output validates\n  | 'sandbox' // sandbox exec exit code\n  | 'judge' // LLM judge — probabilistic, included for completeness\n  | 'composite' // weighted blend across multiple of the above\n\nexport interface VerifiableReward {\n  /** Scalar in [0, 1]. The RL training signal. */\n  value: number\n  /** What produced the reward — different sources have different determinism. */\n  source: VerifiableRewardSource\n  /**\n   * Determinism class. `'deterministic'` rewards are repeatable byte-for-byte\n   * given the same inputs (compile, test, schema validation, sandbox exit code).\n   * `'probabilistic'` rewards depend on a stochastic component (LLM judge).\n   * Mixing these in the same training batch without separation is a known\n   * footgun in production RLHF pipelines.\n   */\n  determinism: 'deterministic' | 'probabilistic'\n  /**\n   * Confidence in the reward value. For deterministic sources this is 1.0\n   * (the bit either flipped or didn't). For judge sources this is the\n   * judge-reported confidence or — when missing — a calibrated prior.\n   */\n  confidence: number\n  /** The layer / judge id that produced the signal, for provenance. */\n  origin: string\n  /**\n   * Per-source contribution to `value`, keyed by layer/judge id. Single-source\n   * rewards carry one entry (`{ [origin]: value }`); composite rewards carry\n   * every contributing layer's score — the anti-scalar-collapse surface RL\n   * consumers weight per-source instead of trusting one blended number.\n   */\n  components: Record<string, number>\n  /**\n   * @deprecated Read `components` for per-source reward values. Kept for\n   * published-API compatibility: single-source rewards carry the layer's\n   * diagnostics here (e.g. `{ tests_passed: 7 }`); composite rewards carry\n   * the same per-layer scores `components` now holds.\n   */\n  breakdown?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions {\n  /**\n   * Which layers count as deterministic-reward sources. The verifier doesn't\n   * tag layers as \"this is verifiable\"; the caller declares it via this list\n   * (or via the layer name → source mapping). Default treats common names\n   * (`install`, `typecheck`, `build`, `lint`, `test`, `compile`, `schema`,\n   * `sandbox`) as deterministic.\n   */\n  deterministicLayers?: string[]\n  /**\n   * Map layer name → reward source. Defaults to a sensible string-match.\n   */\n  sourceFor?: (layerName: string) => VerifiableRewardSource\n  /**\n   * Whether to fall back to a probabilistic (judge) reward when no\n   * deterministic layer produced a numeric score. Default `true`. Set to\n   * `false` for \"deterministic-only\" training pipelines that should\n   * discard runs without a verifiable signal.\n   */\n  fallbackToJudge?: boolean\n  /**\n   * Default confidence for probabilistic (judge) rewards when the judge\n   * doesn't report one. Default `0.7`.\n   */\n  judgeConfidenceFloor?: number\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS = new Set([\n  'install',\n  'typecheck',\n  'build',\n  'lint',\n  'test',\n  'compile',\n  'schema',\n  'sandbox',\n  'unit_tests',\n  'integration_tests',\n])\n\nconst DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR = (name: string): VerifiableRewardSource => {\n  const lower = name.toLowerCase()\n  if (lower.includes('test')) return 'test'\n  if (\n    lower.includes('compile') ||\n    lower.includes('build') ||\n    lower.includes('typecheck') ||\n    lower.includes('lint')\n  )\n    return 'compile'\n  if (lower.includes('schema')) return 'schema'\n  if (lower.includes('sandbox')) return 'sandbox'\n  if (lower.includes('judge') || lower.includes('semantic')) return 'judge'\n  return 'composite'\n}\n\n/**\n * Extract a `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`.\n *\n * Strategy: prefer the deterministic layers (in order: test → compile →\n * schema → sandbox), fall back to the judge layer if `fallbackToJudge` is\n * true, return `null` if no signal qualifies. When multiple deterministic\n * layers contribute, return a `'composite'` source with a weighted blend.\n */\nexport function extractVerifiableReward(\n  report: VerificationReport,\n  opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): VerifiableReward | null {\n  const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n  const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n  const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n  const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n\n  const deterministic = report.layers.filter(\n    (layer) => deterministicSet.has(layer.layer) && isMeasuredLayer(layer),\n  )\n\n  if (deterministic.length === 1) {\n    const layer = deterministic[0]!\n    const value = clamp01(layer.score!)\n    return {\n      value,\n      source: sourceFor(layer.layer),\n      determinism: 'deterministic',\n      confidence: 1,\n      origin: layer.layer,\n      components: { [layer.layer]: value },\n      breakdown: layerBreakdown(layer),\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (deterministic.length > 1) {\n    // Composite: weighted blend by `Layer.weight` if present, else equal.\n    let num = 0\n    let denom = 0\n    const components: Record<string, number> = {}\n    for (const l of deterministic) {\n      const w = (l.detail?.weight as number | undefined) ?? 1\n      num += w * (l.score ?? 0)\n      denom += w\n      components[l.layer] = l.score!\n    }\n    return {\n      value: denom === 0 ? 0 : clamp01(num / denom),\n      source: 'composite',\n      determinism: 'deterministic',\n      confidence: 1,\n      origin: deterministic.map((l) => l.layer).join('+'),\n      components,\n      breakdown: { ...components },\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (!fallbackToJudge) return null\n\n  const judge =\n    report.layers.find((layer) => isMeasuredLayer(layer) && sourceFor(layer.layer) === 'judge') ??\n    report.layers.find(isMeasuredLayer)\n\n  if (!judge) return null\n\n  const confFromDetail = judge.detail?.confidence as number | undefined\n  const judgeValue = clamp01(judge.score!)\n  return {\n    value: judgeValue,\n    source: 'judge',\n    determinism: 'probabilistic',\n    confidence: typeof confFromDetail === 'number' ? confFromDetail : judgeFloor,\n    origin: judge.layer,\n    components: { [judge.layer]: judgeValue },\n    breakdown: layerBreakdown(judge),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction isMeasuredLayer(\n  layer: LayerResult,\n): layer is LayerResult & { status: 'pass' | 'fail'; score: number } {\n  return (\n    (layer.status === 'pass' || layer.status === 'fail') &&\n    typeof layer.score === 'number' &&\n    Number.isFinite(layer.score) &&\n    layer.score >= 0 &&\n    layer.score <= 1\n  )\n}\n\n/**\n * Extract verifiable rewards from `RunRecord[]` produced via the\n * `verificationReportToRunRecord` adapter (which encodes per-layer scores\n * in `outcome.raw['layer.<name>']`). For records that don't carry layer\n * scores, returns `null` for that record.\n *\n * This is the canonical bridge from \"campaign-shaped artifacts\" to\n * \"RL-training-ready reward signals\": every record that has a clean\n * verifiable reward becomes a training datum, every record that doesn't\n * gets filtered out (or kept with `'probabilistic'` determinism for\n * separate downstream handling).\n */\nexport function extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ runId: string; reward: VerifiableReward | null }> {\n  const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n  const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n  const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n  const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n\n  return runs.map((run) => {\n    // Recover per-layer scores from outcome.raw['layer.<name>']\n    const layerScores: Array<{ name: string; score: number }> = []\n    for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(run.outcome.raw)) {\n      if (\n        k.startsWith('layer.') &&\n        !k.includes('.', 6) &&\n        typeof v === 'number' &&\n        Number.isFinite(v)\n      ) {\n        layerScores.push({ name: k.slice('layer.'.length), score: v })\n      }\n    }\n    const det = layerScores.filter((l) => deterministicSet.has(l.name))\n\n    if (det.length === 1) {\n      const layer = det[0]!\n      const value = clamp01(layer.score)\n      return {\n        runId: run.runId,\n        reward: {\n          value,\n          source: sourceFor(layer.name),\n          determinism: 'deterministic',\n          confidence: 1,\n          origin: layer.name,\n          components: { [layer.name]: value },\n        },\n      }\n    }\n    if (det.length > 1) {\n      const value = det.reduce((s, l) => s + l.score, 0) / det.length\n      const components: Record<string, number> = Object.fromEntries(\n        det.map((l) => [l.name, l.score]),\n      )\n      return {\n        runId: run.runId,\n        reward: {\n          value: clamp01(value),\n          source: 'composite',\n          determinism: 'deterministic',\n          confidence: 1,\n          origin: det.map((l) => l.name).join('+'),\n          components,\n          breakdown: { ...components },\n        },\n      }\n    }\n    if (!fallbackToJudge) return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n\n    // Probabilistic fallback: use the run's primary score.\n    const primary = runTaskScore(run)\n    if (primary === undefined) {\n      return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n    }\n    const primaryValue = clamp01(primary)\n    return {\n      runId: run.runId,\n      reward: {\n        value: primaryValue,\n        source: 'judge',\n        determinism: 'probabilistic',\n        confidence: judgeFloor,\n        origin: 'run.outcome.score',\n        components: { 'run.outcome.score': primaryValue },\n      },\n    }\n  })\n}\n\n/** Filter `RunRecord[]` to those with deterministic verifiable rewards. */\nexport function filterDeterministicallyRewarded(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> {\n  const rewarded = extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(runs, { ...opts, fallbackToJudge: false })\n  const out: Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < runs.length; i++) {\n    const r = rewarded[i]!\n    if (r.reward && r.reward.determinism === 'deterministic') {\n      out.push({ run: runs[i]!, reward: r.reward })\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n  return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n\nfunction layerBreakdown(l: LayerResult): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  if (l.diagnostics) {\n    for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(l.diagnostics)) {\n      if (typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v)) out[k] = v\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n","/**\n * Reward hacking / Goodhart detection.\n *\n * Goodhart's Law says: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be\n * a good measure. In RLHF and agentic-RL settings this is the dominant\n * failure mode — the policy learns to produce outputs that score well on\n * the proxy reward (judge, rubric, test pass-rate) without producing\n * the underlying capability the proxy was meant to track.\n *\n * Krakovna et al. (2020, \"Specification Gaming Examples in AI\") and the\n * subsequent RLHF reward-hacking literature (Skalse et al. 2022, Kim et al.\n * 2023) converge on a few diagnostic signatures:\n *\n *   1. **Reward divergence:** the proxy reward grows while the held-out\n *      ground-truth signal stagnates or drops. Predictive validity over\n *      time captures this.\n *   2. **Distributional shift in outputs:** after RL, the policy produces\n *      outputs that no longer match the reference distribution — usually\n *      because it found a high-reward attractor that's degenerate (e.g.\n *      one-token responses, repetition, formatting tricks).\n *   3. **Disagreement between independent rewards:** if you train on\n *      reward A and a held-out independent reward B drops sharply, you're\n *      probably hacking A.\n *   4. **Calibration drift:** the verifiable / deterministic component of\n *      the reward is stable; the probabilistic / judge component drifts up\n *      while the deterministic component doesn't. The judge is being\n *      gamed.\n *\n * This module ships explicit detectors for all four signatures, plus a\n * combined verdict. The output is diagnostic — actionable signals,\n * not autoreject — because each signature has known false positives\n * (e.g., a policy that genuinely improves can show distributional shift).\n *\n * Differs from `rubricPredictiveValidity` (which is a *standing* check on\n * whether rubrics correlate with deployment outcomes) — this is a\n * *temporal* check on whether the reward-vs-truth gap is *widening over\n * time during a training run*.\n */\n\nimport { type RunRecord, runTaskScore } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR } from '../statistics'\nimport {\n  filterDeterministicallyRewarded,\n  type VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions,\n} from './verifiable-reward'\n\nexport type RewardHackingSignal =\n  | 'reward_divergence'\n  | 'distribution_shift'\n  | 'reward_disagreement'\n  | 'judge_drift'\n\nexport interface RewardHackingFinding {\n  signal: RewardHackingSignal\n  /** Severity in [0, 1]. >0.5 = strong signal. */\n  severity: number\n  message: string\n  /** Numeric evidence the consumer can render. */\n  detail: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface RewardHackingReport {\n  findings: RewardHackingFinding[]\n  /** Signals with enough usable observations to produce a finding. */\n  evaluatedSignals: RewardHackingSignal[]\n  /**\n   * Composite verdict. `'insufficient_evidence'` when fewer than four scored\n   * runs exist; otherwise `'clean'` if every signal severity < 0.3,\n   * `'suspect'` if at least one ≥ 0.3 but none ≥ 0.6, and `'gaming'` if any ≥ 0.6.\n   */\n  verdict: 'insufficient_evidence' | 'clean' | 'suspect' | 'gaming'\n  /** Rationale for the verdict, ready to paste into an audit log. */\n  rationale: string[]\n  /** Number of runs with a usable proxy reward. */\n  n: number\n}\n\nexport interface DetectRewardHackingInput {\n  /**\n   * Run records ordered by recency (oldest first). The detector segments\n   * them into prefix/suffix windows to compute \"did the gap widen.\"\n   */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /**\n   * The metric the policy was trained to optimize. Should be present on\n   * `outcome.raw` or `outcome.holdoutScore`. Default reads `outcome.holdoutScore`.\n   */\n  proxyOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number | null\n  /**\n   * The held-out ground-truth metric. For RL on coding, this is typically\n   * test pass-rate. For RLHF, it's downstream task performance or human\n   * preference. For knowledge tasks, it's an independently-graded score.\n   */\n  truthOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number | null\n  /**\n   * Independent secondary reward. Used for the `reward_disagreement`\n   * signal. Default uses the verifiable reward extractor (deterministic\n   * sources only).\n   */\n  secondaryRewardOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number | null\n  /**\n   * Window size — how many of the most recent runs count as the \"after\"\n   * cohort. Default min(50, half the runs).\n   */\n  windowSize?: number\n  /**\n   * Severity threshold to flag a signal. Default 0.3 (suspect) and 0.6\n   * (gaming).\n   */\n  thresholds?: { suspect?: number; gaming?: number }\n  /**\n   * Verifiable-reward options used for the secondary-reward fallback.\n   */\n  verifiableRewardOptions?: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_PROXY = (r: RunRecord): number | null => {\n  return runTaskScore(r) ?? null\n}\n\nexport function detectRewardHacking(input: DetectRewardHackingInput): RewardHackingReport {\n  const proxyOf = input.proxyOf ?? DEFAULT_PROXY\n  const truthOf = input.truthOf\n  const sus = input.thresholds?.suspect ?? 0.3\n  const gam = input.thresholds?.gaming ?? 0.6\n\n  const runs = input.runs.filter((run) => finiteNumber(proxyOf(run)))\n  const n = runs.length\n  if (n < 4) {\n    return {\n      findings: [],\n      evaluatedSignals: [],\n      verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n      n,\n      rationale: [`fewer than 4 runs with proxy reward (n=${n}); insufficient evidence`],\n    }\n  }\n  const windowSize = Math.max(1, input.windowSize ?? Math.min(50, Math.floor(n / 2)))\n  const before = runs.slice(0, n - windowSize)\n  const after = runs.slice(n - windowSize)\n\n  const findings: RewardHackingFinding[] = []\n\n  // ── Signal 1: reward divergence (proxy ↑ while truth flat or ↓) ──────\n  if (truthOf) {\n    const beforeProxy = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n    const afterProxy = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n    const beforeTruth = before.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n    const afterTruth = after.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n    if (\n      beforeProxy.length >= 2 &&\n      afterProxy.length >= 2 &&\n      beforeTruth.length >= 2 &&\n      afterTruth.length >= 2\n    ) {\n      const proxyDelta = mean(afterProxy) - mean(beforeProxy)\n      const truthDelta = mean(afterTruth) - mean(beforeTruth)\n      // Divergence: proxy goes up while truth goes flat or down.\n      // Severity = max(0, (proxyDelta - truthDelta)) — bigger gap = bigger signal.\n      const gap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - truthDelta)\n      const severity = clamp01(gap * 5) // scale: 0.2 absolute gap → severity 1.0\n      findings.push({\n        signal: 'reward_divergence',\n        severity,\n        message:\n          severity >= sus\n            ? `proxy reward rose by ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while truth changed by ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)} — potential Goodhart`\n            : `proxy and truth moved together (proxy ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, truth ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n        detail: {\n          proxyDelta,\n          truthDelta,\n          gap,\n          beforeN: beforeProxy.length,\n          afterN: afterProxy.length,\n        },\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // ── Signal 2: distributional shift in outputs (KS on score distributions) ──\n  {\n    const beforeP = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n    const afterP = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n    if (beforeP.length >= 4 && afterP.length >= 4) {\n      const ks = ksStatistic(beforeP, afterP)\n      // KS statistic: bigger = more shift. We're agnostic about direction;\n      // genuine improvement ALSO produces shift, so this signal is\n      // contributory rather than load-bearing.\n      const severity = clamp01(ks - 0.2)\n      findings.push({\n        signal: 'distribution_shift',\n        severity,\n        message:\n          severity >= sus\n            ? `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — distributional shift large`\n            : `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — within-distribution drift`,\n        detail: { ks, beforeN: beforeP.length, afterN: afterP.length },\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // ── Signal 3: reward disagreement (proxy vs independent secondary) ────\n  {\n    const secondaryOf = input.secondaryRewardOf ?? defaultSecondary(input.verifiableRewardOptions)\n    const aligned = runs\n      .map((r) => ({ p: proxyOf(r), s: secondaryOf(r) }))\n      .filter((x): x is { p: number; s: number } => finiteNumber(x.p) && finiteNumber(x.s))\n    if (aligned.length >= 4) {\n      const ps = aligned.map((x) => x.p)\n      const ss = aligned.map((x) => x.s)\n      const r = pearsonR(ps, ss)\n      // Disagreement: low or negative correlation between primary proxy\n      // reward and an independent secondary signal.\n      const severity = clamp01(0.5 - Math.max(0, r))\n      findings.push({\n        signal: 'reward_disagreement',\n        severity,\n        message:\n          severity >= sus\n            ? `proxy and independent secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)} — possibly hacking proxy`\n            : `proxy and secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)}`,\n        detail: { pearson: r, n: aligned.length },\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // ── Signal 4: judge drift (probabilistic up while deterministic flat) ─\n  {\n    const detRuns = filterDeterministicallyRewarded(runs, input.verifiableRewardOptions ?? {})\n    if (detRuns.length >= 4) {\n      const detBefore = detRuns.slice(0, Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n      const detAfter = detRuns.slice(Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n      const detDelta =\n        mean(detAfter.map((r) => r.reward.value)) - mean(detBefore.map((r) => r.reward.value))\n      const proxyDelta =\n        mean(after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)) -\n        mean(before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber))\n      const driftGap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - detDelta)\n      const severity = clamp01(driftGap * 5)\n      findings.push({\n        signal: 'judge_drift',\n        severity,\n        message:\n          severity >= sus\n            ? `judge proxy +${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while deterministic reward +${detDelta.toFixed(3)} — judge drifting up without verifiable backing`\n            : `judge and deterministic rewards move in step (judge ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, det ${detDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n        detail: { proxyDelta, detDelta, driftGap, n: detRuns.length },\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  const maxSev = findings.reduce((m, f) => Math.max(m, f.severity), 0)\n  if (findings.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      findings,\n      evaluatedSignals: [],\n      verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n      rationale: [`no reward-hacking signal had enough paired evidence (n=${n})`],\n      n,\n    }\n  }\n  const verdict: RewardHackingReport['verdict'] =\n    maxSev >= gam ? 'gaming' : maxSev >= sus ? 'suspect' : 'clean'\n  const rationale = findings\n    .filter((f) => f.severity >= sus)\n    .map((f) => `${f.signal}: severity ${f.severity.toFixed(2)} — ${f.message}`)\n  if (rationale.length === 0) rationale.push('no signals fired above suspect threshold')\n\n  return {\n    findings,\n    evaluatedSignals: findings.map((finding) => finding.signal),\n    verdict,\n    rationale,\n    n,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction finiteNumber(value: number | null): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n  return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n\nfunction ksStatistic(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  // Two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.\n  const sortedA = 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package/dist/{chunk-NUKSVU3W.js → chunk-5DTSBUL2.js}

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import {
   OtlpFileTraceStore,
   buildTraceAnalystTools,
   runTraceAnalysisLoop
-} from "./chunk-IR3KBHOY.js";
+} from "./chunk-P6FYH6K4.js";
 
 // src/trace-analyst/prompts.ts
 var TRACE_ANALYST_ACTOR_DESCRIPTION = `You answer questions about an OTLP-shaped JSONL trace dataset using the trace tools provided in the \`traces\` namespace.
@@ -156,4 +156,4 @@ export {
   TRACE_ANALYST_ACTOR_DESCRIPTION_VERSION,
   analyzeTraces
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-NUKSVU3W.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-5DTSBUL2.js.map