@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.126.7 → 0.127.0

package/dist/{chunk-MOXWMGPC.js → chunk-Y5CYOL42.js}

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import {
   summaryTable
-} from "./chunk-DPZAEKA6.js";
+} from "./chunk-IMGJZBFG.js";
 import {
   VerificationError
 } from "./chunk-ONWEPEDO.js";
@@ -30,34 +30,46 @@ function evaluateReleaseConfidence(input) {
   const splitCounts = input.dataset?.splitCounts ?? countScenarioSplits(scenarios);
   const searchScores = scoresFor(runs, "search");
   const holdoutScores = scoresFor(runs, "holdout");
-  const allScores = [...searchScores, ...holdoutScores];
+  const runScores = runs.map(runSplitScore).filter(isFiniteNumber);
   const traceScores = traces.map((t) => t.score).filter(isFiniteNumber);
-  const scoreUniverse = allScores.length > 0 ? allScores : traceScores;
-  const searchRuns = runs.filter((r) => r.splitTag === "search").length;
-  const holdoutRuns = runs.filter((r) => r.splitTag === "holdout").length;
-  const searchMeanScore = mean(searchScores);
-  const holdoutMeanScore = mean(holdoutScores);
+  const scoreUniverse = runs.length > 0 ? runScores : traceScores;
+  const qualityRuns = runs.filter((run) => runSplitScore(run) !== void 0);
+  const unscoredRuns = runs.filter(
+    (run) => runSplitScore(run) === void 0 && !hasExplicitTaskFailure(run) && !isFailedTerminalOutcome(run.terminalOutcome)
+  ).length;
+  const passOutcomes = runs.length > 0 ? runs.map((run) => runPassOutcome(run, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold)) : traces.map((trace) => tracePassOutcome(trace, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold));
+  const reliabilityRows = runs.length > 0 ? runs.map((run) => terminalSuccess(run.terminalOutcome)) : traces.map((trace) => trace.ok);
+  const unclassifiedTerminalRuns = reliabilityRows.filter((outcome) => outcome === void 0).length;
+  const terminalFailureRuns = reliabilityRows.filter((outcome) => outcome === false).length;
+  const reliabilityRate = reliabilityRows.length === 0 || unclassifiedTerminalRuns > 0 ? null : (reliabilityRows.length - terminalFailureRuns) / reliabilityRows.length;
+  const searchRuns = qualityRuns.filter((r) => r.splitTag === "search").length;
+  const holdoutRuns = qualityRuns.filter((r) => r.splitTag === "holdout").length;
+  const failed = failedRows(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold);
+  const searchMeanScore = meanOrNull(searchScores);
+  const holdoutMeanScore = meanOrNull(holdoutScores);
+  const runCosts = runs.flatMap(
+    (run) => run.costProvenance.kind === "uncaptured" ? [] : [run.costProvenance.usd]
+  );
+  const traceCosts = traces.map((trace) => trace.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber);
+  const meanCostUsd = runs.length > 0 ? runCosts.length === runs.length ? meanOrNull(runCosts) : null : meanOrNull(traceCosts);
+  const wallTimes = runs.length > 0 ? runs.map((run) => run.wallMs) : traces.map((trace) => trace.durationMs).filter(isFiniteNumber);
   const metrics = {
     scenarioCount,
     searchRuns,
     holdoutRuns,
-    passRate: passRate(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold),
-    meanScore: mean(scoreUniverse),
+    unscoredRuns,
+    unclassifiedTerminalRuns,
+    terminalFailureRuns,
+    reliabilityRate,
+    passRate: passOutcomeRate(passOutcomes),
+    meanScore: meanOrNull(scoreUniverse),
     searchMeanScore,
     holdoutMeanScore,
-    overfitGap: safeDiff(searchMeanScore, holdoutMeanScore),
-    meanCostUsd: mean([
-      ...runs.map((r) => r.costUsd),
-      ...traces.map((t) => t.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)
-    ]),
-    p95WallMs: percentile(
-      [...runs.map((r) => r.wallMs), ...traces.map((t) => t.durationMs).filter(isFiniteNumber)],
-      0.95
-    ),
-    failedRows: failedRows(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold).length,
-    failuresWithAsi: failedRows(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold).filter(
-      (row) => row.hasAsi
-    ).length,
+    overfitGap: diffOrNull(searchMeanScore, holdoutMeanScore),
+    meanCostUsd,
+    p95WallMs: percentileOrNull(wallTimes, 0.95),
+    failedRows: failed.length,
+    failuresWithAsi: failed.filter((row) => row.hasAsi).length,
     singleShotTraces: traces.filter((t) => t.turnCount === 1).length,
     multiShotTraces: traces.filter((t) => (t.turnCount ?? 0) > 1).length,
     splitCounts,
@@ -68,10 +80,11 @@ function evaluateReleaseConfidence(input) {
   const issues = [];
   checkCorpus(input, thresholds, metrics, issues);
   checkQuality(thresholds, metrics, issues);
+  checkReliability(metrics, issues);
   checkGeneralization(input.gateDecision ?? null, thresholds, metrics, issues);
   checkDiagnostics(thresholds, metrics, issues);
   checkEfficiency(thresholds, metrics, issues);
-  const axes = buildAxes(metrics, thresholds, input.gateDecision ?? null, issues);
+  const axes = buildAxes(metrics, thresholds, issues);
   const status = issues.some((i) => i.severity === "critical") ? "fail" : issues.length > 0 ? "warn" : "pass";
   return {
     target: input.target,
@@ -141,7 +154,23 @@ function checkQuality(thresholds, metrics, issues) {
       detail: `${metrics.searchRuns} search run(s) < min ${thresholds.minSearchRuns}.`
     });
   }
-  if (metrics.passRate < thresholds.minPassRate) {
+  if (metrics.unscoredRuns > 0) {
+    issues.push({
+      axis: "quality",
+      severity: "critical",
+      code: "unscored_runs",
+      detail: `${metrics.unscoredRuns} supplied run(s) have no task result.`
+    });
+  }
+  if (metrics.passRate === null || metrics.meanScore === null) {
+    issues.push({
+      axis: "quality",
+      severity: "critical",
+      code: "missing_quality_scores",
+      detail: "No task-quality scores are available for pass-rate and mean-score checks."
+    });
+  }
+  if (metrics.passRate !== null && metrics.passRate < thresholds.minPassRate) {
     issues.push({
       axis: "quality",
       severity: "critical",
@@ -149,7 +178,7 @@ function checkQuality(thresholds, metrics, issues) {
       detail: `passRate ${fmt(metrics.passRate)} < ${fmt(thresholds.minPassRate)}.`
     });
   }
-  if (metrics.meanScore < thresholds.minMeanScore) {
+  if (metrics.meanScore !== null && metrics.meanScore < thresholds.minMeanScore) {
     issues.push({
       axis: "quality",
       severity: "critical",
@@ -158,6 +187,24 @@ function checkQuality(thresholds, metrics, issues) {
     });
   }
 }
+function checkReliability(metrics, issues) {
+  if (metrics.reliabilityRate === null) {
+    issues.push({
+      axis: "reliability",
+      severity: "critical",
+      code: "missing_reliability_evidence",
+      detail: metrics.unclassifiedTerminalRuns > 0 ? `${metrics.unclassifiedTerminalRuns} supplied run(s) have no classified terminal result.` : "No classified terminal results are available."
+    });
+  }
+  if (metrics.terminalFailureRuns > 0) {
+    issues.push({
+      axis: "reliability",
+      severity: "critical",
+      code: "terminal_run_failures",
+      detail: `${metrics.terminalFailureRuns} run(s) ended failed, cancelled, or incomplete.`
+    });
+  }
+}
 function checkGeneralization(gateDecision, thresholds, metrics, issues) {
   if (thresholds.requireHoldout && metrics.holdoutRuns < thresholds.minHoldoutRuns) {
     issues.push({
@@ -167,7 +214,7 @@ function checkGeneralization(gateDecision, thresholds, metrics, issues) {
       detail: `${metrics.holdoutRuns} holdout run(s) < min ${thresholds.minHoldoutRuns}.`
     });
   }
-  if (Number.isFinite(metrics.overfitGap) && metrics.overfitGap > thresholds.maxOverfitGap) {
+  if (metrics.overfitGap !== null && metrics.overfitGap > thresholds.maxOverfitGap) {
     issues.push({
       axis: "generalization",
       severity: "critical",
@@ -196,7 +243,14 @@ function checkDiagnostics(thresholds, metrics, issues) {
   }
 }
 function checkEfficiency(thresholds, metrics, issues) {
-  if (metrics.meanCostUsd > thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) {
+  if (Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) && metrics.meanCostUsd === null) {
+    issues.push({
+      axis: "efficiency",
+      severity: "critical",
+      code: "missing_cost",
+      detail: "A finite cost limit was configured but no cost evidence is available."
+    });
+  } else if (metrics.meanCostUsd !== null && metrics.meanCostUsd > thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) {
     issues.push({
       axis: "efficiency",
       severity: "critical",
@@ -204,7 +258,14 @@ function checkEfficiency(thresholds, metrics, issues) {
       detail: `meanCostUsd ${fmt(metrics.meanCostUsd)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd)}.`
     });
   }
-  if (metrics.p95WallMs > thresholds.maxP95WallMs) {
+  if (Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxP95WallMs) && metrics.p95WallMs === null) {
+    issues.push({
+      axis: "efficiency",
+      severity: "critical",
+      code: "missing_latency",
+      detail: "A finite latency limit was configured but no latency evidence is available."
+    });
+  } else if (metrics.p95WallMs !== null && metrics.p95WallMs > thresholds.maxP95WallMs) {
     issues.push({
       axis: "efficiency",
       severity: "critical",
@@ -213,7 +274,7 @@ function checkEfficiency(thresholds, metrics, issues) {
     });
   }
 }
-function buildAxes(metrics, thresholds, gateDecision, issues) {
+function buildAxes(metrics, thresholds, issues) {
   return [
     axis(
       "corpus",
@@ -224,13 +285,19 @@ function buildAxes(metrics, thresholds, gateDecision, issues) {
     axis(
       "quality",
       issues,
-      Math.min(metrics.passRate, metrics.meanScore),
+      metrics.passRate === null || metrics.meanScore === null ? null : Math.min(metrics.passRate, metrics.meanScore),
       `passRate=${fmt(metrics.passRate)} meanScore=${fmt(metrics.meanScore)}`
     ),
+    axis(
+      "reliability",
+      issues,
+      metrics.reliabilityRate,
+      `successRate=${fmt(metrics.reliabilityRate)} terminalFailures=${metrics.terminalFailureRuns} unclassified=${metrics.unclassifiedTerminalRuns}`
+    ),
     axis(
       "generalization",
       issues,
-      gateDecision && !gateDecision.promote ? 0 : gapScore(metrics.overfitGap, thresholds.maxOverfitGap),
+      gapScore(metrics.overfitGap, thresholds.maxOverfitGap),
       `holdoutRuns=${metrics.holdoutRuns} overfitGap=${fmt(metrics.overfitGap)}`
     ),
     axis(
@@ -250,7 +317,7 @@ function buildAxes(metrics, thresholds, gateDecision, issues) {
 function axis(name, issues, score, detail) {
   const own = issues.filter((i) => i.axis === name);
   const status = own.some((i) => i.severity === "critical") ? "fail" : own.length > 0 ? "warn" : "pass";
-  return { name, status, score: bounded(score), detail };
+  return { name, status, score: score === null ? null : bounded(score), detail };
 }
 function countScenarioSplits(scenarios) {
   const counts = { train: 0, dev: 0, test: 0, holdout: 0 };
@@ -268,14 +335,13 @@ function countDomains(scenarios) {
 function countFailureModes(runs, traces, threshold) {
   const out = {};
   for (const run of runs) {
-    const score = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore;
-    if (run.failureMode || score !== void 0 && score < threshold) {
-      const mode = run.failureMode ?? "low_score";
+    if (runPassOutcome(run, threshold) === false) {
+      const mode = run.failureMode ?? run.failureClass ?? "low_score";
       out[mode] = (out[mode] ?? 0) + 1;
     }
   }
   for (const trace of traces) {
-    if (trace.failureMode || trace.ok === false || trace.score !== void 0 && trace.score < threshold) {
+    if (tracePassOutcome(trace, threshold) === false) {
       const mode = trace.failureMode ?? (trace.ok === false ? "not_ok" : "low_score");
       out[mode] = (out[mode] ?? 0) + 1;
     }
@@ -295,59 +361,77 @@ function countResponsibleSurfaces(traces) {
 function failedRows(runs, traces, threshold) {
   const out = [];
   for (const run of runs) {
-    const score = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore;
-    if (run.failureMode || score !== void 0 && score < threshold) {
+    if (runPassOutcome(run, threshold) === false) {
       const asiMetric = run.outcome.raw.asi;
       out.push({ hasAsi: typeof asiMetric === "number" && asiMetric > 0 });
     }
   }
   for (const trace of traces) {
-    if (trace.failureMode || trace.ok === false || trace.score !== void 0 && trace.score < threshold) {
+    if (tracePassOutcome(trace, threshold) === false) {
       out.push({ hasAsi: (trace.asi?.length ?? 0) > 0 });
     }
   }
   return out;
 }
-function passRate(runs, traces, threshold) {
-  const outcomes = [
-    ...runs.map((run) => {
-      const score = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore;
-      return !run.failureMode && score !== void 0 && score >= threshold;
-    }),
-    ...traces.map(
-      (trace) => trace.ok !== false && (trace.score === void 0 || trace.score >= threshold)
-    )
-  ];
-  if (outcomes.length === 0) return 0;
-  return outcomes.filter(Boolean).length / outcomes.length;
+function passOutcomeRate(outcomes) {
+  const classified = outcomes.filter((outcome) => outcome !== null);
+  if (classified.length === 0) return null;
+  return classified.filter(Boolean).length / classified.length;
+}
+function runPassOutcome(run, threshold) {
+  if (hasExplicitTaskFailure(run)) return false;
+  const score = runSplitScore(run);
+  return score === void 0 ? null : score >= threshold;
+}
+function hasExplicitTaskFailure(run) {
+  return run.failureClass !== void 0 && run.failureClass !== "success" || run.failureMode !== void 0;
+}
+function tracePassOutcome(trace, threshold) {
+  if (trace.failureMode !== void 0) return false;
+  if (trace.ok === false) return false;
+  if (isFiniteNumber(trace.score)) return trace.score >= threshold;
+  return trace.ok === true ? true : null;
+}
+function isFailedTerminalOutcome(outcome) {
+  return outcome === "failed" || outcome === "cancelled" || outcome === "incomplete";
+}
+function terminalSuccess(outcome) {
+  if (outcome === "succeeded") return true;
+  if (isFailedTerminalOutcome(outcome)) return false;
+  return void 0;
 }
 function scoresFor(runs, split) {
-  return runs.filter((run) => run.splitTag === split).map((run) => split === "holdout" ? run.outcome.holdoutScore : run.outcome.searchScore).filter(isFiniteNumber);
+  return runs.filter((run) => run.splitTag === split).map(runSplitScore).filter(isFiniteNumber);
 }
-function mean(xs) {
-  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN;
+function runSplitScore(run) {
+  const score = run.splitTag === "holdout" ? run.outcome.holdoutScore : run.outcome.searchScore;
+  return isFiniteNumber(score) ? score : void 0;
+}
+function meanOrNull(xs) {
+  if (xs.length === 0) return null;
   return xs.reduce((sum, x) => sum + x, 0) / xs.length;
 }
-function percentile(xs, p) {
-  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN;
+function percentileOrNull(xs, p) {
+  if (xs.length === 0) return null;
   const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b);
   return sorted[Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.max(0, Math.ceil(p * sorted.length) - 1))];
 }
 function isFiniteNumber(value) {
   return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value);
 }
-function safeDiff(a, b) {
-  if (!Number.isFinite(a) || !Number.isFinite(b)) return Number.NaN;
+function diffOrNull(a, b) {
+  if (a === null || b === null) return null;
   return a - b;
 }
 function gapScore(gap, maxGap) {
-  if (!Number.isFinite(gap)) return 0;
+  if (gap === null) return null;
   if (maxGap <= 0) return gap <= 0 ? 1 : 0;
   return bounded(1 - Math.max(0, gap) / maxGap);
 }
 function efficiencyScore(metrics, thresholds) {
-  const cost = Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) && Number.isFinite(metrics.meanCostUsd) ? bounded(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd / Math.max(metrics.meanCostUsd, 1e-12)) : 1;
-  const latency = Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxP95WallMs) && Number.isFinite(metrics.p95WallMs) ? bounded(thresholds.maxP95WallMs / Math.max(metrics.p95WallMs, 1e-12)) : 1;
+  const cost = Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) ? metrics.meanCostUsd === null ? null : bounded(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd / Math.max(metrics.meanCostUsd, 1e-12)) : 1;
+  const latency = Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxP95WallMs) ? metrics.p95WallMs === null ? null : bounded(thresholds.maxP95WallMs / Math.max(metrics.p95WallMs, 1e-12)) : 1;
+  if (cost === null || latency === null) return null;
   return Math.min(cost, latency);
 }
 function bounded(x) {
@@ -361,7 +445,7 @@ function renderSummary(target, status, metrics, issues) {
   return `${prefix}; ${metricText}; issues=${issues.map((i) => i.code).join(",")}`;
 }
 function fmt(x) {
-  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x);
+  if (x === null) return "n/a";
   return x.toFixed(4);
 }
 
@@ -371,8 +455,8 @@ function bootstrapCi(baseline, candidate, options = {}) {
   const iterations = options.iterations ?? 1e3;
   const minTotal = options.minTotalSamples ?? 6;
   const rng = mulberry32(options.seed ?? hashSeed(baseline, candidate));
-  const baselineMean = mean2(baseline);
-  const candidateMean = mean2(candidate);
+  const baselineMean = mean(baseline);
+  const candidateMean = mean(candidate);
   const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean;
   if (baseline.length + candidate.length < minTotal || baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) {
     return {
@@ -390,7 +474,7 @@ function bootstrapCi(baseline, candidate, options = {}) {
   for (let i = 0; i < iterations; i++) {
     const bResample = resample(baseline, rng);
     const cResample = resample(candidate, rng);
-    deltas[i] = mean2(cResample) - mean2(bResample);
+    deltas[i] = mean(cResample) - mean(bResample);
   }
   deltas.sort((a, b) => a - b);
   const lowerIdx = Math.floor(alpha / 2 * iterations);
@@ -413,7 +497,7 @@ function bootstrapCi(baseline, candidate, options = {}) {
     verdict
   };
 }
-function mean2(xs) {
+function mean(xs) {
   if (xs.length === 0) return 0;
   let s = 0;
   for (const x of xs) s += x;
@@ -496,13 +580,15 @@ function renderReleaseReport(scorecard, options = {}) {
   lines.push(`| Scenarios | ${scorecard.metrics.scenarioCount} |`);
   lines.push(`| Search runs | ${scorecard.metrics.searchRuns} |`);
   lines.push(`| Holdout runs | ${scorecard.metrics.holdoutRuns} |`);
+  lines.push(`| Unscored runs | ${scorecard.metrics.unscoredRuns} |`);
+  lines.push(`| Terminal failures | ${scorecard.metrics.terminalFailureRuns} |`);
   lines.push(`| Pass rate | ${pct(scorecard.metrics.passRate)} |`);
   lines.push(`| Mean score | ${num(scorecard.metrics.meanScore)} |`);
   lines.push(`| Search mean | ${num(scorecard.metrics.searchMeanScore)} |`);
   lines.push(`| Holdout mean | ${num(scorecard.metrics.holdoutMeanScore)} |`);
   lines.push(`| Overfit gap | ${num(scorecard.metrics.overfitGap)} |`);
   lines.push(`| Mean cost | $${num(scorecard.metrics.meanCostUsd)} |`);
-  lines.push(`| p95 wall time | ${Math.round(scorecard.metrics.p95WallMs)} ms |`);
+  lines.push(`| p95 wall time | ${duration(scorecard.metrics.p95WallMs)} |`);
   lines.push("");
   if (scorecard.issues.length > 0) {
     lines.push("## Issues");
@@ -561,10 +647,13 @@ function entries(values) {
   return Object.entries(values).filter(([, count]) => count > 0).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1] || a[0].localeCompare(b[0]));
 }
 function pct(value) {
-  return Number.isFinite(value) ? `${(value * 100).toFixed(1)}%` : "n/a";
+  return value === null ? "n/a" : `${(value * 100).toFixed(1)}%`;
 }
 function num(value) {
-  return Number.isFinite(value) ? value.toFixed(3) : "n/a";
+  return value === null ? "n/a" : value.toFixed(3);
+}
+function duration(value) {
+  return value === null ? "n/a" : `${Math.round(value)} ms`;
 }
 
 export {
@@ -574,4 +663,4 @@ export {
   judgeReplayGate,
   renderReleaseReport
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-MOXWMGPC.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-Y5CYOL42.js.map

package/dist/chunk-Y5CYOL42.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/release-confidence.ts","../src/promotion-gate.ts","../src/release-report.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Release confidence gate.\n *\n * This is the production-facing composition layer over the lower-level\n * primitives:\n *   - Dataset manifests prove corpus/version coverage.\n *   - RunRecord rows prove reproducible search/holdout outcomes.\n *   - Multi-shot trace evidence carries turn counts and ASI diagnostics.\n *   - HeldOutGate decisions remain the paired promotion authority.\n *\n * The gate is intentionally pure and conservative. Missing declared evidence\n * fails closed instead of being treated as a neutral zero.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetManifest, DatasetScenario, DatasetSplit } from './dataset'\nimport { VerificationError } from './errors'\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport type { RunRecord, RunSplitTag } from './run-record'\n\n/** Severity of an actionable finding attached to a run/trace. */\nexport type AsiSeverity = 'info' | 'warning' | 'error' | 'critical'\n\n/** Actionable side-info — a diagnosed finding the loop can act on. */\nexport interface ActionableSideInfo {\n  /** Stable expectation/check id when available. */\n  expectationId?: string\n  /** Human-readable diagnosis of what happened. */\n  message: string\n  severity?: AsiSeverity\n  /** Concrete trace excerpt, file path, tool call, screenshot id, etc. */\n  evidence?: string\n  /** Prompt/tool/context surface likely responsible. */\n  responsibleSurface?: string\n  /** Suggested fix in natural language. */\n  suggestion?: string\n  /** Whether this expectation was satisfied. Defaults to false for ASI rows. */\n  matched?: boolean\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport type ReleaseConfidenceStatus = 'pass' | 'warn' | 'fail'\nexport type ReleaseConfidenceAxisName =\n  | 'corpus'\n  | 'quality'\n  | 'reliability'\n  | 'generalization'\n  | 'diagnostics'\n  | 'efficiency'\n\nexport interface ReleaseTraceEvidence {\n  scenarioId: string\n  candidateId?: string\n  split?: RunSplitTag\n  score?: number\n  ok?: boolean\n  turnCount?: number\n  costUsd?: number\n  durationMs?: number\n  failureMode?: string\n  asi?: ActionableSideInfo[]\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceThresholds {\n  /** Require a Dataset manifest or explicit scenarios. Default true. */\n  requireCorpus?: boolean\n  minScenarioCount?: number\n  minSearchRuns?: number\n  minHoldoutRuns?: number\n  /** Require at least one holdout scenario/run. Default true. */\n  requireHoldout?: boolean\n  minPassRate?: number\n  minMeanScore?: number\n  /** Search mean may exceed holdout mean by at most this much. */\n  maxOverfitGap?: number\n  maxMeanCostUsd?: number\n  maxP95WallMs?: number\n  /** Low-score/failed rows must carry ASI. Default true. */\n  requireAsiForFailures?: boolean\n  /** Score below this is considered a failure for ASI coverage. Default 0.5. */\n  failureScoreThreshold?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceInput {\n  target: string\n  candidateId?: string\n  baselineId?: string\n  dataset?: DatasetManifest\n  scenarios?: readonly DatasetScenario[]\n  runs?: readonly RunRecord[]\n  traces?: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[]\n  gateDecision?: GateDecision | null\n  thresholds?: ReleaseConfidenceThresholds\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceAxis {\n  name: ReleaseConfidenceAxisName\n  status: ReleaseConfidenceStatus\n  score: number | null\n  detail: string\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceIssue {\n  axis: ReleaseConfidenceAxisName\n  severity: 'critical' | 'warning'\n  code: string\n  detail: string\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceMetrics {\n  scenarioCount: number\n  /** Search rows with a finite search score. */\n  searchRuns: number\n  /** Holdout rows with a finite holdout score. */\n  holdoutRuns: number\n  /** Runs with neither a split-matched score nor an explicit task failure. */\n  unscoredRuns: number\n  /** Run rows, or trace rows when no runs exist, with no classified terminal result. */\n  unclassifiedTerminalRuns: number\n  /** Run rows, or trace rows when no runs exist, that ended unsuccessfully. */\n  terminalFailureRuns: number\n  /** Success fraction when every run or fallback trace row has a classified result. */\n  reliabilityRate: number | null\n  passRate: number | null\n  meanScore: number | null\n  searchMeanScore: number | null\n  holdoutMeanScore: number | null\n  overfitGap: number | null\n  meanCostUsd: number | null\n  p95WallMs: number | null\n  failedRows: number\n  failuresWithAsi: number\n  singleShotTraces: number\n  multiShotTraces: number\n  splitCounts: Record<DatasetSplit, number>\n  domainCounts: Record<string, number>\n  failureModeCounts: Record<string, number>\n  responsibleSurfaceCounts: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceScorecard {\n  target: string\n  candidateId: string | null\n  baselineId: string | null\n  status: ReleaseConfidenceStatus\n  promote: boolean\n  axes: ReleaseConfidenceAxis[]\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[]\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics\n  dataset: DatasetManifest | null\n  gateDecision: GateDecision | null\n  summary: string\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_THRESHOLDS: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds> = {\n  requireCorpus: true,\n  minScenarioCount: 1,\n  minSearchRuns: 1,\n  minHoldoutRuns: 1,\n  requireHoldout: true,\n  minPassRate: 0.8,\n  minMeanScore: 0.7,\n  maxOverfitGap: 0.15,\n  maxMeanCostUsd: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n  maxP95WallMs: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n  requireAsiForFailures: true,\n  failureScoreThreshold: 0.5,\n}\n\nexport function evaluateReleaseConfidence(\n  input: ReleaseConfidenceInput,\n): ReleaseConfidenceScorecard {\n  const thresholds = { ...DEFAULT_THRESHOLDS, ...input.thresholds }\n  const candidateId = input.candidateId ?? null\n  const runs = filterCandidate(input.runs ?? [], candidateId, input.baselineId)\n  const traces = filterTraceCandidate(input.traces ?? [], candidateId, input.baselineId)\n  const scenarios = input.scenarios ?? []\n  const scenarioCount = input.dataset?.scenarioCount ?? scenarios.length\n  const splitCounts = input.dataset?.splitCounts ?? countScenarioSplits(scenarios)\n  const searchScores = scoresFor(runs, 'search')\n  const holdoutScores = scoresFor(runs, 'holdout')\n  const runScores = runs.map(runSplitScore).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const traceScores = traces.map((t) => t.score).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const scoreUniverse = runs.length > 0 ? runScores : traceScores\n  const qualityRuns = runs.filter((run) => runSplitScore(run) !== undefined)\n  const unscoredRuns = runs.filter(\n    (run) =>\n      runSplitScore(run) === undefined &&\n      !hasExplicitTaskFailure(run) &&\n      !isFailedTerminalOutcome(run.terminalOutcome),\n  ).length\n  const passOutcomes =\n    runs.length > 0\n      ? runs.map((run) => runPassOutcome(run, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold))\n      : traces.map((trace) => tracePassOutcome(trace, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold))\n  const reliabilityRows =\n    runs.length > 0\n      ? runs.map((run) => terminalSuccess(run.terminalOutcome))\n      : traces.map((trace) => trace.ok)\n  const unclassifiedTerminalRuns = reliabilityRows.filter((outcome) => outcome === undefined).length\n  const terminalFailureRuns = reliabilityRows.filter((outcome) => outcome === false).length\n  const reliabilityRate =\n    reliabilityRows.length === 0 || unclassifiedTerminalRuns > 0\n      ? null\n      : (reliabilityRows.length - terminalFailureRuns) / reliabilityRows.length\n  const searchRuns = qualityRuns.filter((r) => r.splitTag === 'search').length\n  const holdoutRuns = qualityRuns.filter((r) => r.splitTag === 'holdout').length\n  const failed = failedRows(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold)\n  const searchMeanScore = meanOrNull(searchScores)\n  const holdoutMeanScore = meanOrNull(holdoutScores)\n  const runCosts = runs.flatMap((run) =>\n    run.costProvenance.kind === 'uncaptured' ? [] : [run.costProvenance.usd],\n  )\n  const traceCosts = traces.map((trace) => trace.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const meanCostUsd =\n    runs.length > 0\n      ? runCosts.length === runs.length\n        ? meanOrNull(runCosts)\n        : null\n      : meanOrNull(traceCosts)\n  const wallTimes =\n    runs.length > 0\n      ? runs.map((run) => run.wallMs)\n      : traces.map((trace) => trace.durationMs).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics = {\n    scenarioCount,\n    searchRuns,\n    holdoutRuns,\n    unscoredRuns,\n    unclassifiedTerminalRuns,\n    terminalFailureRuns,\n    reliabilityRate,\n    passRate: passOutcomeRate(passOutcomes),\n    meanScore: meanOrNull(scoreUniverse),\n    searchMeanScore,\n    holdoutMeanScore,\n    overfitGap: diffOrNull(searchMeanScore, holdoutMeanScore),\n    meanCostUsd,\n    p95WallMs: percentileOrNull(wallTimes, 0.95),\n    failedRows: failed.length,\n    failuresWithAsi: failed.filter((row) => row.hasAsi).length,\n    singleShotTraces: traces.filter((t) => t.turnCount === 1).length,\n    multiShotTraces: traces.filter((t) => (t.turnCount ?? 0) > 1).length,\n    splitCounts,\n    domainCounts: countDomains(scenarios),\n    failureModeCounts: countFailureModes(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold),\n    responsibleSurfaceCounts: countResponsibleSurfaces(traces),\n  }\n\n  const issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[] = []\n  checkCorpus(input, thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkQuality(thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkReliability(metrics, issues)\n  checkGeneralization(input.gateDecision ?? null, thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkDiagnostics(thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkEfficiency(thresholds, metrics, issues)\n\n  const axes = buildAxes(metrics, thresholds, issues)\n  const status = issues.some((i) => i.severity === 'critical')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : issues.length > 0\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n\n  return {\n    target: input.target,\n    candidateId,\n    baselineId: input.baselineId ?? null,\n    status,\n    promote: status === 'pass' && (input.gateDecision ? input.gateDecision.promote : true),\n    axes,\n    issues,\n    metrics,\n    dataset: input.dataset ?? null,\n    gateDecision: input.gateDecision ?? null,\n    summary: renderSummary(input.target, status, metrics, issues),\n  }\n}\n\nexport function assertReleaseConfidence(input: ReleaseConfidenceInput): ReleaseConfidenceScorecard {\n  const scorecard = evaluateReleaseConfidence(input)\n  if (scorecard.status === 'fail') {\n    throw new VerificationError(scorecard.summary)\n  }\n  return scorecard\n}\n\nfunction filterCandidate(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string | null,\n  baselineId?: string,\n): RunRecord[] {\n  if (candidateId) return runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId)\n  if (baselineId) return runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId !== baselineId)\n  return [...runs]\n}\n\nfunction filterTraceCandidate(\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  candidateId: string | null,\n  baselineId?: string,\n): ReleaseTraceEvidence[] {\n  if (candidateId)\n    return traces.filter((t) => t.candidateId === undefined || t.candidateId === candidateId)\n  if (baselineId)\n    return traces.filter((t) => t.candidateId === undefined || t.candidateId !== baselineId)\n  return [...traces]\n}\n\nfunction checkCorpus(\n  input: ReleaseConfidenceInput,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (thresholds.requireCorpus && !input.dataset && (input.scenarios?.length ?? 0) === 0) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'corpus',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_corpus',\n      detail: 'No Dataset manifest or scenarios supplied.',\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.scenarioCount < thresholds.minScenarioCount) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'corpus',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'few_scenarios',\n      detail: `${metrics.scenarioCount} scenario(s) < min ${thresholds.minScenarioCount}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (thresholds.requireHoldout && metrics.splitCounts.holdout === 0) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'corpus',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_holdout_split',\n      detail: 'Corpus has no holdout scenarios.',\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkQuality(\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (metrics.searchRuns < thresholds.minSearchRuns) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'quality',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'few_search_runs',\n      detail: `${metrics.searchRuns} search run(s) < min ${thresholds.minSearchRuns}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.unscoredRuns > 0) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'quality',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'unscored_runs',\n      detail: `${metrics.unscoredRuns} supplied run(s) have no task result.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.passRate === null || metrics.meanScore === null) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'quality',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_quality_scores',\n      detail: 'No task-quality scores are available for pass-rate and mean-score checks.',\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.passRate !== null && metrics.passRate < thresholds.minPassRate) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'quality',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'low_pass_rate',\n      detail: `passRate ${fmt(metrics.passRate)} < ${fmt(thresholds.minPassRate)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.meanScore !== null && metrics.meanScore < thresholds.minMeanScore) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'quality',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'low_mean_score',\n      detail: `meanScore ${fmt(metrics.meanScore)} < ${fmt(thresholds.minMeanScore)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkReliability(\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (metrics.reliabilityRate === null) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'reliability',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_reliability_evidence',\n      detail:\n        metrics.unclassifiedTerminalRuns > 0\n          ? `${metrics.unclassifiedTerminalRuns} supplied run(s) have no classified terminal result.`\n          : 'No classified terminal results are available.',\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.terminalFailureRuns > 0) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'reliability',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'terminal_run_failures',\n      detail: `${metrics.terminalFailureRuns} run(s) ended failed, cancelled, or incomplete.`,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkGeneralization(\n  gateDecision: GateDecision | null,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (thresholds.requireHoldout && metrics.holdoutRuns < thresholds.minHoldoutRuns) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'generalization',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'few_holdout_runs',\n      detail: `${metrics.holdoutRuns} holdout run(s) < min ${thresholds.minHoldoutRuns}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (metrics.overfitGap !== null && metrics.overfitGap > thresholds.maxOverfitGap) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'generalization',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'overfit_gap',\n      detail: `search-holdout gap ${fmt(metrics.overfitGap)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxOverfitGap)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (gateDecision && !gateDecision.promote) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'generalization',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: `gate_${gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? 'reject'}`,\n      detail: gateDecision.reason,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkDiagnostics(\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (!thresholds.requireAsiForFailures) return\n  if (metrics.failedRows > metrics.failuresWithAsi) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'diagnostics',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_failure_asi',\n      detail: `${metrics.failedRows - metrics.failuresWithAsi} failed row(s) have no actionable side information.`,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkEfficiency(\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) && metrics.meanCostUsd === null) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'efficiency',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_cost',\n      detail: 'A finite cost limit was configured but no cost evidence is available.',\n    })\n  } else if (metrics.meanCostUsd !== null && metrics.meanCostUsd > thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'efficiency',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'cost_budget',\n      detail: `meanCostUsd ${fmt(metrics.meanCostUsd)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n  if (Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxP95WallMs) && metrics.p95WallMs === null) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'efficiency',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_latency',\n      detail: 'A finite latency limit was configured but no latency evidence is available.',\n    })\n  } else if (metrics.p95WallMs !== null && metrics.p95WallMs > thresholds.maxP95WallMs) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'efficiency',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'latency_budget',\n      detail: `p95WallMs ${fmt(metrics.p95WallMs)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxP95WallMs)}.`,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildAxes(\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): ReleaseConfidenceAxis[] {\n  return [\n    axis(\n      'corpus',\n      issues,\n      bounded(metrics.scenarioCount / Math.max(1, thresholds.minScenarioCount)),\n      `${metrics.scenarioCount} scenarios; holdout=${metrics.splitCounts.holdout}`,\n    ),\n    axis(\n      'quality',\n      issues,\n      metrics.passRate === null || metrics.meanScore === null\n        ? null\n        : Math.min(metrics.passRate, metrics.meanScore),\n      `passRate=${fmt(metrics.passRate)} meanScore=${fmt(metrics.meanScore)}`,\n    ),\n    axis(\n      'reliability',\n      issues,\n      metrics.reliabilityRate,\n      `successRate=${fmt(metrics.reliabilityRate)} terminalFailures=${metrics.terminalFailureRuns} unclassified=${metrics.unclassifiedTerminalRuns}`,\n    ),\n    axis(\n      'generalization',\n      issues,\n      gapScore(metrics.overfitGap, thresholds.maxOverfitGap),\n      `holdoutRuns=${metrics.holdoutRuns} overfitGap=${fmt(metrics.overfitGap)}`,\n    ),\n    axis(\n      'diagnostics',\n      issues,\n      metrics.failedRows === 0 ? 1 : metrics.failuresWithAsi / metrics.failedRows,\n      `failuresWithAsi=${metrics.failuresWithAsi}/${metrics.failedRows}`,\n    ),\n    axis(\n      'efficiency',\n      issues,\n      efficiencyScore(metrics, thresholds),\n      `meanCostUsd=${fmt(metrics.meanCostUsd)} p95WallMs=${fmt(metrics.p95WallMs)}`,\n    ),\n  ]\n}\n\nfunction axis(\n  name: ReleaseConfidenceAxisName,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n  score: number | null,\n  detail: string,\n): ReleaseConfidenceAxis {\n  const own = issues.filter((i) => i.axis === name)\n  const status = own.some((i) => i.severity === 'critical')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : own.length > 0\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return { name, status, score: score === null ? null : bounded(score), detail }\n}\n\nfunction countScenarioSplits(scenarios: readonly DatasetScenario[]): Record<DatasetSplit, number> {\n  const counts: Record<DatasetSplit, number> = { train: 0, dev: 0, test: 0, holdout: 0 }\n  for (const scenario of scenarios) counts[scenario.split ?? 'train']++\n  return counts\n}\n\nfunction countDomains(scenarios: readonly DatasetScenario[]): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const scenario of scenarios) {\n    const domain = scenario.tags?.domain ?? scenario.tags?.category ?? 'uncategorized'\n    out[domain] = (out[domain] ?? 0) + 1\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction countFailureModes(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  threshold: number,\n): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    if (runPassOutcome(run, threshold) === false) {\n      const mode = run.failureMode ?? run.failureClass ?? 'low_score'\n      out[mode] = (out[mode] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  for (const trace of traces) {\n    if (tracePassOutcome(trace, threshold) === false) {\n      const mode = trace.failureMode ?? (trace.ok === false ? 'not_ok' : 'low_score')\n      out[mode] = (out[mode] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction countResponsibleSurfaces(traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[]): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const trace of traces) {\n    for (const asi of trace.asi ?? []) {\n      const surface = asi.responsibleSurface ?? 'unknown'\n      out[surface] = (out[surface] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction failedRows(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  threshold: number,\n): Array<{ hasAsi: boolean }> {\n  const out: Array<{ hasAsi: boolean }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    if (runPassOutcome(run, threshold) === false) {\n      const asiMetric = run.outcome.raw.asi\n      out.push({ hasAsi: typeof asiMetric === 'number' && asiMetric > 0 })\n    }\n  }\n  for (const trace of traces) {\n    if (tracePassOutcome(trace, threshold) === false) {\n      out.push({ hasAsi: (trace.asi?.length ?? 0) > 0 })\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction passOutcomeRate(outcomes: readonly (boolean | null)[]): number | null {\n  const classified = outcomes.filter((outcome): outcome is boolean => outcome !== null)\n  if (classified.length === 0) return null\n  return classified.filter(Boolean).length / classified.length\n}\n\nfunction runPassOutcome(run: RunRecord, threshold: number): boolean | null {\n  if (hasExplicitTaskFailure(run)) return false\n  const score = runSplitScore(run)\n  return score === undefined ? null : score >= threshold\n}\n\nfunction hasExplicitTaskFailure(run: RunRecord): boolean {\n  return (\n    (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') ||\n    run.failureMode !== undefined\n  )\n}\n\nfunction tracePassOutcome(trace: ReleaseTraceEvidence, threshold: number): boolean | null {\n  if (trace.failureMode !== undefined) return false\n  if (trace.ok === false) return false\n  if (isFiniteNumber(trace.score)) return trace.score >= threshold\n  return trace.ok === true ? true : null\n}\n\nfunction isFailedTerminalOutcome(\n  outcome: RunRecord['terminalOutcome'],\n): outcome is 'failed' | 'cancelled' | 'incomplete' {\n  return outcome === 'failed' || outcome === 'cancelled' || outcome === 'incomplete'\n}\n\nfunction terminalSuccess(outcome: RunRecord['terminalOutcome']): boolean | undefined {\n  if (outcome === 'succeeded') return true\n  if (isFailedTerminalOutcome(outcome)) return false\n  return undefined\n}\n\nfunction scoresFor(runs: readonly RunRecord[], split: RunSplitTag): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.splitTag === split)\n    .map(runSplitScore)\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\nfunction runSplitScore(run: RunRecord): number | undefined {\n  const score = run.splitTag === 'holdout' ? run.outcome.holdoutScore : run.outcome.searchScore\n  return isFiniteNumber(score) ? score : undefined\n}\n\nfunction meanOrNull(xs: readonly number[]): number | null {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return null\n  return xs.reduce((sum, x) => sum + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction percentileOrNull(xs: readonly number[], p: number): number | null {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return null\n  const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  return sorted[Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.max(0, Math.ceil(p * sorted.length) - 1))]!\n}\n\nfunction isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\nfunction diffOrNull(a: number | null, b: number | null): number | null {\n  if (a === null || b === null) return null\n  return a - b\n}\n\nfunction gapScore(gap: number | null, maxGap: number): number | null {\n  if (gap === null) return null\n  if (maxGap <= 0) return gap <= 0 ? 1 : 0\n  return bounded(1 - Math.max(0, gap) / maxGap)\n}\n\nfunction efficiencyScore(\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n): number | null {\n  const cost = Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd)\n    ? metrics.meanCostUsd === null\n      ? null\n      : bounded(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd / Math.max(metrics.meanCostUsd, 1e-12))\n    : 1\n  const latency = Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxP95WallMs)\n    ? metrics.p95WallMs === null\n      ? null\n      : bounded(thresholds.maxP95WallMs / Math.max(metrics.p95WallMs, 1e-12))\n    : 1\n  if (cost === null || latency === null) return null\n  return Math.min(cost, latency)\n}\n\nfunction bounded(x: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n  return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n\nfunction renderSummary(\n  target: string,\n  status: ReleaseConfidenceStatus,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): string {\n  const prefix = `release confidence ${status}: ${target}`\n  const metricText = `scenarios=${metrics.scenarioCount} searchRuns=${metrics.searchRuns} holdoutRuns=${metrics.holdoutRuns} passRate=${fmt(metrics.passRate)} meanScore=${fmt(metrics.meanScore)}`\n  if (issues.length === 0) return `${prefix}; ${metricText}`\n  return `${prefix}; ${metricText}; issues=${issues.map((i) => i.code).join(',')}`\n}\n\nfunction fmt(x: number | null): string {\n  if (x === null) return 'n/a'\n  return x.toFixed(4)\n}\n","/**\n * Bootstrap-CI promotion gate.\n *\n * In any iterative-improvement loop (GEPA, prompt evolution, dataset\n * curation), the question is \"did this generation actually improve, or are\n * we celebrating noise?\". With small N and noisy outcomes, point-estimate\n * deltas lie. Bootstrap confidence intervals tell the operator whether the\n * delta is real before code or prompts get promoted.\n *\n * This module is pure functions — no I/O, no model calls. Easy to unit-test\n * and to compose into any verdict gate.\n *\n * Default gate:\n *   - Bootstrap mean baseline vs candidate (1k resamples).\n *   - Compute the delta distribution; pass if the lower CI bound > 0.\n *   - Tunable confidence (default 95%) and resample count.\n *\n * Verdict semantics intentionally match the existing `experiments.jsonl`\n * vocabulary:\n *   - ADVANCE: candidate's CI lower bound > baseline mean (real win)\n *   - KEEP:    overlap, but candidate point estimate >= baseline (neutral)\n *   - REVERT:  candidate's CI upper bound < baseline mean (real regression)\n *   - INCONCLUSIVE: not enough samples or CI straddles zero with no signal\n */\n\nexport type Verdict = 'ADVANCE' | 'KEEP' | 'REVERT' | 'INCONCLUSIVE'\n\nexport interface BootstrapResult {\n  baselineMean: number\n  candidateMean: number\n  /** candidateMean - baselineMean, point estimate. */\n  delta: number\n  /** Lower bound of the (1 - alpha) CI on the delta. */\n  ciLower: number\n  /** Upper bound of the (1 - alpha) CI on the delta. */\n  ciUpper: number\n  /** Number of bootstrap resamples used. */\n  iterations: number\n  alpha: number\n  verdict: Verdict\n}\n\nexport interface BootstrapOptions {\n  /** Confidence level alpha (default 0.05 → 95% CI). */\n  alpha?: number\n  /** Number of resamples (default 1000). */\n  iterations?: number\n  /**\n   * Minimum total samples (baseline + candidate) below which we always\n   * return INCONCLUSIVE — bootstrap with too few samples is meaningless.\n   * Default 6 (combined).\n   */\n  minTotalSamples?: number\n  /** RNG seed for reproducibility. Default: Math.random. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Compute the bootstrap CI on (candidateMean - baselineMean) and a verdict.\n *\n * Uses simple percentile bootstrap on the difference of resampled means.\n * That's the standard non-parametric primitive — no distributional\n * assumptions, robust to skew, easy to reason about.\n */\nexport function bootstrapCi(\n  baseline: number[],\n  candidate: number[],\n  options: BootstrapOptions = {},\n): BootstrapResult {\n  const alpha = options.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const iterations = options.iterations ?? 1000\n  const minTotal = options.minTotalSamples ?? 6\n  const rng = mulberry32(options.seed ?? hashSeed(baseline, candidate))\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(baseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(candidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  if (\n    baseline.length + candidate.length < minTotal ||\n    baseline.length === 0 ||\n    candidate.length === 0\n  ) {\n    return {\n      baselineMean,\n      candidateMean,\n      delta,\n      ciLower: -Infinity,\n      ciUpper: Infinity,\n      iterations: 0,\n      alpha,\n      verdict: 'INCONCLUSIVE',\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas: number[] = new Array(iterations)\n  for (let i = 0; i < iterations; i++) {\n    const bResample = resample(baseline, rng)\n    const cResample = resample(candidate, rng)\n    deltas[i] = mean(cResample) - mean(bResample)\n  }\n  deltas.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const lowerIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * iterations)\n  const upperIdx = Math.floor((1 - alpha / 2) * iterations) - 1\n  const ciLower = deltas[Math.max(0, lowerIdx)]!\n  const ciUpper = deltas[Math.min(iterations - 1, upperIdx)]!\n\n  let verdict: Verdict\n  if (ciLower > 0) verdict = 'ADVANCE'\n  else if (ciUpper < 0) verdict = 'REVERT'\n  else if (delta >= 0) verdict = 'KEEP'\n  else verdict = 'INCONCLUSIVE'\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ciLower,\n    ciUpper,\n    iterations,\n    alpha,\n    verdict,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  let s = 0\n  for (const x of xs) s += x\n  return s / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction resample(xs: number[], rng: () => number): number[] {\n  const out = new Array(xs.length)\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) out[i] = xs[Math.floor(rng() * xs.length)]\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Mulberry32 — fast deterministic PRNG. Stable across runs given the same seed. */\nfunction mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {\n  let t = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    t += 0x6d2b79f5\n    let r = t\n    r = Math.imul(r ^ (r >>> 15), r | 1)\n    r ^= r + Math.imul(r ^ (r >>> 7), r | 61)\n    return ((r ^ (r >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n\n/** Stable seed derived from the inputs — same data → same CI bounds. */\nfunction hashSeed(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  let h = 2166136261\n  for (const x of [...a, ...b]) {\n    const view = new Float64Array([x])\n    const bytes = new Uint8Array(view.buffer)\n    for (const byte of bytes) {\n      h ^= byte\n      h = Math.imul(h, 16777619)\n    }\n  }\n  return h >>> 0\n}\n\n/**\n * Judge-replay promotion gate.\n *\n * The cheap inner-loop judge that drives an evolution run is by definition\n * fast and noisy. When you're about to promote a winning variant to the\n * canonical default, you want a STRONGER judge (a more expensive model, a\n * human grader, a separately-trained reward model) to confirm the win\n * generalises beyond the inner loop.\n *\n * This helper takes raw winner + baseline outputs, scores both through the\n * stronger judge, and applies `bootstrapCi`. ADVANCE means the stronger\n * judge agrees the winner is real with the configured confidence. Doesn't\n * matter what shape your \"output\" is — pass a string, an object, anything\n * the judge can read.\n */\nexport interface JudgeReplayGateArgs<TOutput> {\n  baselineOutputs: TOutput[]\n  candidateOutputs: TOutput[]\n  /** Stronger judge — async to allow LLM calls. Return a 0..N scalar score. */\n  judge: (output: TOutput) => Promise<number> | number\n  alpha?: number\n  iterations?: number\n  /** RNG seed for reproducibility. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Maximum concurrent judge calls. Default 4. */\n  judgeConcurrency?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Confirm a candidate's win with a stronger judge: score baseline and candidate outputs independently, then bootstrap a CI to verify the lift generalises beyond the inner loop.\n */\nexport async function judgeReplayGate<TOutput>(\n  args: JudgeReplayGateArgs<TOutput>,\n): Promise<BootstrapResult & { baselineSamples: number; candidateSamples: number }> {\n  const concurrency = args.judgeConcurrency ?? 4\n  const baselineScores = await scoreAll(args.baselineOutputs, args.judge, concurrency)\n  const candidateScores = await scoreAll(args.candidateOutputs, args.judge, concurrency)\n  const ci = bootstrapCi(baselineScores, candidateScores, {\n    ...(args.alpha !== undefined ? { alpha: args.alpha } : {}),\n    ...(args.iterations !== undefined ? { iterations: args.iterations } : {}),\n    ...(args.seed !== undefined ? { seed: args.seed } : {}),\n  })\n  return {\n    ...ci,\n    baselineSamples: baselineScores.length,\n    candidateSamples: candidateScores.length,\n  }\n}\n\nasync function scoreAll<TOutput>(\n  outputs: TOutput[],\n  judge: (output: TOutput) => Promise<number> | number,\n  concurrency: number,\n): Promise<number[]> {\n  const results: number[] = new Array(outputs.length)\n  let next = 0\n  async function worker(): Promise<void> {\n    while (true) {\n      const i = next++\n      if (i >= outputs.length) return\n      const v = await judge(outputs[i]!)\n      results[i] = Number.isFinite(v) ? v : 0\n    }\n  }\n  await Promise.all(Array.from({ length: Math.max(1, concurrency) }, () => worker()))\n  return results\n}\n","import type { ReleaseConfidenceScorecard } from './release-confidence'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport { summaryTable } from './summary-report'\n\nexport interface RenderReleaseReportOptions {\n  title?: string\n  runs?: readonly RunRecord[]\n  comparator?: string\n  traceAnalystFindings?: readonly string[]\n  nextActions?: readonly string[]\n}\n\nexport function renderReleaseReport(\n  scorecard: ReleaseConfidenceScorecard,\n  options: RenderReleaseReportOptions = {},\n): string {\n  const title = options.title ?? `Release Report: ${scorecard.target}`\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`Status: **${scorecard.status.toUpperCase()}**`)\n  lines.push(`Promote: **${scorecard.promote ? 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package/dist/{chunk-FO7HEH76.js → chunk-YJBNWCAA.js}

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ import {
   costReceiptFromLlm,
   costReceiptFromLlmError,
   maximumChargeForLlmRequest
-} from "./chunk-J5SQWP6Y.js";
+} from "./chunk-PBE2LOSS.js";
 import {
   CostLedger
 } from "./chunk-WS3NZZQQ.js";
@@ -1053,4 +1053,4 @@ export {
   startServer,
   startServerAsync
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-FO7HEH76.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-YJBNWCAA.js.map