@gloom-sh/terminal 0.18.5 → 0.19.1

package/src/plugins/builtin/iv-history/screen-pane.tsx

@@ -8,14 +8,14 @@ import { Box, Text, useUiCapabilities } from "../../../ui";
 import { wrapTextLines } from "../../../utils/text-wrap";
 import { useAutoRefresh } from "../../../react/auto-refresh";
 import { compareSortValues, nextHeaderSort, type SortDirection } from "../../../utils/sort-values";
-import { loadIvScreen, loadScreenVolatilities } from "./client";
-import { formatPoints, formatRank, formatSpot, formatVol, readingLabel, sharedDates, shortDate, VCA_DEFINITIONS, verdictLabel } from "./format";
-import { projectRichCheap, type RichCheapRow, richCheapDates, screenPaneNotices, type VcaPreset } from "./model";
+import { loadIvScreen, loadScreenVolatilities, type ScreenHv } from "./client";
+import { formatPoints, formatRank, formatSpot, formatVol, readingLabel, sharedDates, shortDate, vcaDefinitions, verdictLabel } from "./format";
+import { projectRichCheap, readingSource, type RichCheapRow, richCheapDates, screenPaneNotices, type VcaPreset } from "./model";
 import { vcaUniverse } from "./universe";
 import { MovedTickerState } from "../../../components/layout/pane/ticker-fate-gate";
 import type { MovedTickerChange } from "../../../tickers/ticker-changes";
 
-type SortId = keyof RichCheapRow;
+type SortId = Exclude<keyof RichCheapRow, "stale">;
 const HV_WINDOW = 20;
 /** Pane borders and the footer's own padding. */
 const FOOTER_MARGIN = 6;
@@ -31,9 +31,10 @@ const COLUMNS: DataTableColumn[] = [
   { id: "iv1y", label: "IV1Y", width: 7, align: "right" },
   { id: "iv1yPercentile", label: "IVP1Y", width: 6, align: "right" },
   { id: "termSlope", label: "30-90", width: 7, align: "right" },
-  { id: "skew", label: "25D skew", width: 9, align: "right" },
-  { id: "skewDate", label: "Skew as of", width: 11, align: "right" },
+  { id: "riskReversal", label: "25D RR", width: 9, align: "right" },
+  { id: "skewDate", label: "RR as of", width: 11, align: "right" },
   { id: "hv", label: `HV${HV_WINDOW}`, width: 7, align: "right" },
+  { id: "hvDate", label: "HV as of", width: 9, align: "right" },
   { id: "ivHv", label: "IV/HV", width: 6, align: "right" },
 ];
 
@@ -49,7 +50,7 @@ export function IvScreenPane({ paneId, width, height, focused }: PaneProps) {
   const universe = useMemo(() => vcaUniverse(scope, symbolsText, collectionId, [...tickers.values()]), [scope, symbolsText, collectionId, tickers]);
   const key = universe.instruments.map((instrument) => instrument.symbol).join(",");
   const controller = useRef<AbortController | null>(null);
-  const [hv, setHv] = useState<Map<string, number | null>>(new Map());
+  const [hv, setHv] = useState<Map<string, ScreenHv | null>>(new Map());
   // Symbols whose company moved: their rows have no HV and the footer says where each company went.
   const [moved, setMoved] = useState<Array<{ symbol: string; change: MovedTickerChange }>>([]);
   const loader = useCallback(async () => {
@@ -83,17 +84,21 @@ export function IvScreenPane({ paneId, width, height, focused }: PaneProps) {
   }, [resource.data, hv, sort]);
   const dates = useMemo(() => richCheapDates(rows), [rows]);
   // A date every row shares moves to the footer; a column no row fills, or whose dates agree, is left out.
+  const hasSkew = useMemo(() => rows.some((row) => row.riskReversal != null), [rows]);
+  // A close solved from quote midpoints names itself, which a date alone has no room for.
+  const dateWidth = useMemo(() => rows.some((row) => !row.stale && readingSource(row.method, row.basis) === "close mid") ? 15 : 11, [rows]);
   const columns = useMemo(() => COLUMNS.filter((column) => {
     switch (column.id) {
       case "date": return !dates.reading;
       case "rankDate": return dates.rankApart;
       case "iv1y": return rows.some((row) => row.iv1y != null);
       case "iv1yPercentile": return rows.some((row) => row.iv1yPercentile != null);
-      case "skew": return rows.some((row) => row.skew != null);
+      case "riskReversal": return hasSkew;
       case "skewDate": return dates.skewApart;
+      case "hvDate": return dates.hvApart;
       default: return true;
     }
-  }), [rows, dates]);
+  }).map((column) => column.id === "date" ? { ...column, width: dateWidth } : column), [rows, dates, hasSkew, dateWidth]);
   const [selected, setSelected] = useState<string | null>(null);
   const coverageNotices = useMemo(() => screenPaneNotices(rows), [rows]);
   // One symbol to screen whose company moved has nothing to show but where it went, as a ticker's panes say.
@@ -117,10 +122,10 @@ export function IvScreenPane({ paneId, width, height, focused }: PaneProps) {
   const cell = (row: RichCheapRow, id: string): { text: string; color?: string } => {
     switch (id) {
       case "symbol": return { text: row.symbol, color: colors.textBright };
-      case "iv30": return { text: formatVol(row.iv30), color: colors.warning };
+      case "iv30": return { text: formatVol(row.iv30), color: row.stale ? colors.textDim : colors.warning };
       case "spot": return { text: formatSpot(row.spot), color: colors.textDim };
-      case "date": return { text: row.date ? readingLabel(row.date, row.method, true)
-        : row.status === "queued" || row.status === "backfilling" ? row.status : "--", color: colors.textDim };
+      case "date": return { text: row.date ? readingLabel(row.date, row.method, true, { basis: row.basis, stale: row.stale })
+        : row.status === "queued" || row.status === "backfilling" ? row.status : "--", color: row.stale ? colors.warning : colors.textDim };
       case "rankDate": return { text: row.rankDate ? `${shortDate(row.rankDate)} close` : "--", color: colors.textDim };
       case "rank": return { text: formatRank(row.rank) };
       case "percentile": return { text: formatRank(row.percentile) };
@@ -128,16 +133,18 @@ export function IvScreenPane({ paneId, width, height, focused }: PaneProps) {
       case "iv1y": return { text: formatVol(row.iv1y) };
       case "iv1yPercentile": return { text: formatRank(row.iv1yPercentile) };
       case "termSlope": return { text: formatPoints(row.termSlope), color: row.termSlope != null && row.termSlope > 0 ? colors.negative : colors.text };
-      case "skew": return { text: formatPoints(row.skew) };
+      case "riskReversal": return { text: formatPoints(row.riskReversal) };
       case "skewDate": return { text: row.skewDate ? readingLabel(row.skewDate, "quote-mid", true) : "--", color: colors.textDim };
       case "hv": return { text: hv.has(row.symbol) ? formatVol(row.hv) : "...", color: colors.positive };
+      case "hvDate": return { text: row.hvDate ? shortDate(row.hvDate) : "--", color: colors.textDim };
       case "ivHv": return { text: row.ivHv == null ? "--" : row.ivHv.toFixed(2) };
       default: return { text: "" };
     }
   };
   const custom = scope === "custom";
   // The skew's sign and VIX beside IV30 are units of the figures above them, so they stay under the table.
-  const definitions = useMemo(() => VCA_DEFINITIONS.flatMap((line) => wrapTextLines(line, Math.max(1, width - 2))), [width]);
+  const definitionLines = useMemo(() => vcaDefinitions({ skew: hasSkew }), [hasSkew]);
+  const definitions = useMemo(() => definitionLines.flatMap((line) => wrapTextLines(line, Math.max(1, width - 2))), [definitionLines, width]);
   return <Box width={width} height={height} flexDirection="column" overflow="hidden">
     <QueryBar width={width} filters={[
       { id: "universe", label: "Universe", value: VCA_SCOPE_OPTIONS.some((option) => option.value === scope) ? scope : "etfs",
@@ -159,7 +166,7 @@ export function IvScreenPane({ paneId, width, height, focused }: PaneProps) {
       {nativePaneChrome ? (
         // The desktop and the web wrap each definition at the pane's width, under a table that fills the rest.
         <Box flexDirection="column" paddingX={1} flexShrink={0}>
-          {VCA_DEFINITIONS.map((line) => <Prose key={line} text={line} width={Math.max(1, width - 2)} color={colors.textDim} figures={false} />)}
+          {definitionLines.map((line) => <Prose key={line} text={line} width={Math.max(1, width - 2)} color={colors.textDim} figures={false} />)}
         </Box>
       ) : (
         <Box flexDirection="column" paddingX={1} height={definitions.length} flexShrink={0}>

package/src/plugins/builtin/iv-history/universe.ts

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+import { fxVolatilityNote } from "../../../market-data/options-alternatives";
 import type { InstrumentRef } from "../../../market-data/request-types";
 import type { TickerRecord } from "../../../types/ticker";
 import { canonicalExchange } from "../../../utils/exchanges";
@@ -33,7 +34,10 @@ export function vcaUniverse(scope: string, symbolsText: string, collectionId: st
     instruments = VCA_PRESETS[preset].map((symbol) => ({ symbol, exchange: "" }));
   }
   const valid = [...new Map(instruments.filter((instrument) => SYMBOL.test(instrument.symbol)).map((instrument) => [instrument.symbol, instrument])).values()];
-  const error = !valid.length ? scope === "collection" ? "Link a watchlist or portfolio with US-listed symbols in pane settings." : "Add symbols in pane settings."
+  // An FX pair or currency future typed in a list is left out with what stands in for it, not as a symbol that does not parse.
+  const fx = scope === "custom" ? instruments.flatMap((instrument) => fxVolatilityNote(instrument.symbol, instrument.exchange) ?? []) : [];
+  const error = !valid.length ? fx[0] ?? (scope === "collection" ? "Link a watchlist or portfolio with US-listed symbols in pane settings." : "Add symbols in pane settings.")
+    : fx.length ? fx[0]!
     : valid.length > VCA_LIMIT ? `Only the first ${VCA_LIMIT} symbols are screened.`
       : skipped ? `${skipped} non-US listing${skipped === 1 ? "" : "s"} left out: stored implied volatility covers US option underlyings.` : null;
   return { label, instruments: valid.slice(0, VCA_LIMIT), error };

package/src/plugins/builtin/jobs/client.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import { apiClient } from "../../../api-client";
+import { createTtlCache } from "../../../data/ttl-cache";
 import { ApiRequestError } from "../../../api-client/errors";
 import type {
   CloudJobsMoversPayload,
@@ -25,43 +26,38 @@ export type JobsCompanyState =
   | { kind: "denied"; status: 401 | 402 | 403; message: string };
 
 const SUMMARY_TTL_MS = 5 * 60_000;
-const summaryCache = new Map<string, { at: number; state: JobsCompanyState }>();
-
-function cachedJobs(ticker: string): JobsCompanyState | null {
-  const entry = summaryCache.get(ticker.toUpperCase());
-  if (!entry || Date.now() - entry.at > SUMMARY_TTL_MS) return null;
-  return entry.state;
-}
+/**
+ * `pending` is never kept, so the pane's poll reads it afresh each time, and
+ * `denied` is not either: the account can change under the pane.
+ */
+const summaries = createTtlCache<JobsCompanyState>({
+  ttlMs: SUMMARY_TTL_MS,
+  keep: (state) => state.kind === "ready" || state.kind === "uncovered",
+});
 
-export async function fetchJobs(
-  ticker: string,
-  options: { name?: string | null; force?: boolean; client?: JobsCloudClient } = {},
-): Promise<JobsCompanyState> {
-  const key = ticker.toUpperCase();
-  if (!options.force) {
-    const cached = cachedJobs(key);
-    // A pending answer is never served from cache: the point is to poll.
-    if (cached && cached.kind !== "pending") return cached;
-  }
-  const client = options.client ?? apiClient;
-  let state: JobsCompanyState;
+async function loadJobs(key: string, name: string | null | undefined, client: JobsCloudClient): Promise<JobsCompanyState> {
   try {
-    const response: CloudJobsResponse = await client.getCloudJobs(key, options.name);
-    state = response.status === "pending"
+    const response: CloudJobsResponse = await client.getCloudJobs(key, name);
+    return response.status === "pending"
       ? { kind: "pending", ticker: key, message: response.message }
       : { kind: "ready", summary: response };
   } catch (error) {
     if (error instanceof ApiRequestError && error.status === 404) {
-      state = { kind: "uncovered", ticker: key, message: error.message };
-    } else if (error instanceof ApiRequestError && (error.status === 401 || error.status === 402 || error.status === 403)) {
-      // Not cached: the account can change under the pane.
+      return { kind: "uncovered", ticker: key, message: error.message };
+    }
+    if (error instanceof ApiRequestError && (error.status === 401 || error.status === 402 || error.status === 403)) {
       return { kind: "denied", status: error.status, message: error.message };
-    } else {
-      throw error;
     }
+    throw error;
   }
-  summaryCache.set(key, { at: Date.now(), state });
-  return state;
+}
+
+export function fetchJobs(
+  ticker: string,
+  options: { name?: string | null; force?: boolean; client?: JobsCloudClient } = {},
+): Promise<JobsCompanyState> {
+  const key = ticker.toUpperCase();
+  return summaries.load(key, () => loadJobs(key, options.name, options.client ?? apiClient), { force: options.force });
 }
 
 export function fetchJobsPostings(
@@ -81,5 +77,5 @@ export function fetchJobsMovers(
 }
 
 export function resetJobsCache(): void {
-  summaryCache.clear();
+  summaries.clear();
 }

package/src/plugins/builtin/kelly-sizer/model.ts

@@ -282,7 +282,7 @@ export function calculateKellySizing({
   price?: number | null;
 }): KellySizingResult {
   const warnings: string[] = [];
-  if (!finite(bankroll) || bankroll <= 0 || !finite(currentValue)) {
+  if (!finite(currentValue)) {
     return {
       mode,
       bankroll: 0,
@@ -301,7 +301,7 @@ export function calculateKellySizing({
       riskFraction: 0,
       expectedReturn: 0,
       expectedLogGrowth: 0,
-      warnings: [!finite(currentValue) ? "Current holding value unavailable; check FX rates." : "No positive bankroll available."],
+      warnings: ["Current holding value unavailable; check FX rates."],
       clipReasons: [],
       recommendationLabel: "Unavailable",
     };
@@ -342,20 +342,24 @@ export function calculateKellySizing({
 
   const safeCurrentValue = finite(currentValue) ? Math.max(0, currentValue) : 0;
   const safePrice = price != null && finite(price) && price > 0 ? price : null;
-  const targetValue = clippedFraction * bankroll;
-  const addTrimValue = targetValue - safeCurrentValue;
-  const estimatedUnits = safePrice ? addTrimValue / safePrice : null;
+  // Sizes are shares of the bankroll; only the money amounts need one.
+  const hasBankroll = finite(bankroll) && bankroll > 0;
+  const targetValue = hasBankroll ? clippedFraction * bankroll : null;
+  const addTrimValue = targetValue == null ? null : targetValue - safeCurrentValue;
+  const estimatedUnits = safePrice && addTrimValue != null ? addTrimValue / safePrice : null;
   const riskFraction = clippedFraction * downsideLossFraction;
-  const riskValue = riskFraction * bankroll;
+  const riskValue = hasBankroll ? riskFraction * bankroll : null;
+  // Nothing held is 0% of any bankroll; a holding with no bankroll has no share.
+  const currentFraction = hasBankroll ? safeCurrentValue / bankroll : safeCurrentValue > 0 ? null : 0;
 
   if (fullKellyFraction === 0 && solve.expectedReturn <= 0) warnings.push("No positive Kelly edge.");
   if (downsideLossFraction <= 0) warnings.push("No downside assumption; risk caps cannot bind.");
 
   return {
     mode,
-    bankroll,
+    bankroll: hasBankroll ? bankroll : 0,
     currentValue: safeCurrentValue,
-    currentFraction: safeCurrentValue / bankroll,
+    currentFraction,
     price: safePrice,
     fullKellyFraction,
     fractionalKellyFraction,

package/src/plugins/builtin/kelly-sizer/pane.tsx

@@ -372,7 +372,7 @@ export function KellySizerPane({ focused, width, height }: PaneProps) {
   const sensitivity = useMemo(() => buildSensitivityGrid(sizingMode, activeDraft), [activeDraft, sizingMode]);
   const curveMaxFraction = useMemo(
     () => getKellyCurveMaxFraction(sizingMode, activeDraft, [
-      result.currentFraction,
+      result.currentFraction ?? 0,
       result.clippedFraction,
       result.fullKellyFraction,
     ]),
@@ -384,7 +384,9 @@ export function KellySizerPane({ focused, width, height }: PaneProps) {
   );
   const curveXAxisLabels = useMemo(() => buildKellyCurveXAxisLabels(curveMaxFraction), [curveMaxFraction]);
   const currentGrowth = useMemo(
-    () => calculateExpectedLogGrowthAtFraction(sizingMode, activeDraft, result.currentFraction),
+    () => result.currentFraction == null
+      ? null
+      : calculateExpectedLogGrowthAtFraction(sizingMode, activeDraft, result.currentFraction),
     [activeDraft, sizingMode, result.currentFraction],
   );
   const targetGrowth = useMemo(
@@ -393,15 +395,16 @@ export function KellySizerPane({ focused, width, height }: PaneProps) {
   );
   const curveMarkers = useMemo<StaticChartXMarker[]>(() => {
     if (!Number.isFinite(curveMaxFraction) || curveMaxFraction <= 0) return [];
-    const targetLabel = result.clipReasons[0]?.replace(/^max /, "") ?? "target";
+    // Caps apply in turn, so with both binding the last one set the target.
+    const targetLabel = result.clipReasons.at(-1)?.replace(/^max /, "") ?? "target";
     const markers: StaticChartXMarker[] = [
-      {
+      ...(result.currentFraction == null ? [] : [{
         id: "current",
         xRatio: result.currentFraction / curveMaxFraction,
         label: "current",
         color: colors.textDim,
         lineChar: "┊",
-      },
+      }]),
       {
         id: "target",
         xRatio: result.clippedFraction / curveMaxFraction,
@@ -474,9 +477,6 @@ export function KellySizerPane({ focused, width, height }: PaneProps) {
   usePaneFooter(KELLY_PANE_ID, () => ({
     info: historyStatus
       ? [{ id: "history", parts: [historyStatus] }]
-      : bankroll <= 0 && ticker
-      // Every size reads 0% until there is a bankroll; say so where status lives.
-      ? [{ id: "bankroll", parts: [{ text: "no bankroll", tone: "warning" as const }] }]
       : result.warnings.length > 0
         ? [{ id: "warning", parts: [{ text: result.warnings[0]!, tone: "warning" as const }] }]
         : result.clipReasons.length > 0
@@ -488,7 +488,7 @@ export function KellySizerPane({ focused, width, height }: PaneProps) {
       { id: "search", key: "/", label: "search", onPress: focusTickerSearch },
       ...(viewInBar ? [] : [{ id: "sensitivity", key: "s", label: showSensitivity ? "ensitivity off" : "ensitivity", onPress: toggleSensitivity }]),
     ],
-  }), [activeInputId, bankroll, editSelectedField, focusTickerSearch, historyStatus?.text, historyStatus?.tone, result.clipReasons, result.warnings, selectedField?.id, selectedField?.label, showSensitivity, ticker, toggleSensitivity, viewInBar]);
+  }), [activeInputId, editSelectedField, focusTickerSearch, historyStatus?.text, historyStatus?.tone, result.clipReasons, result.warnings, selectedField?.id, selectedField?.label, showSensitivity, ticker, toggleSensitivity, viewInBar]);
 
   const portfolioTabs = useMemo(
     () => config.portfolios.map((portfolio) => ({ label: portfolio.name, value: portfolio.id })),

package/src/plugins/builtin/kelly-sizer/sections.tsx

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ import { resolveChartPalette } from "../../../components/chart/core/palette";
 import type { StaticChartXMarker } from "../../../components/chart/static";
 import { colors, priceColor } from "../../../theme/colors";
 import { Box } from "../../../ui";
-import { displayWidth, formatCurrency, formatNumber } from "../../../utils/format";
+import { displayWidth, formatCurrency, formatNumber, MISSING_VALUE } from "../../../utils/format";
 import type { KellySizingResult, SensitivityGrid } from "./types";
 import type { KellyHistoryInputs } from "./history";
 import { formatPct, formatSignedPct } from "./view";
@@ -32,10 +32,15 @@ export function buildKellyHistoryItems(inputs: KellyHistoryInputs): StatItem[] {
   ];
 }
 
+/** What the first money figure says while there is no bankroll to size in. */
+const BANKROLL_HINT = "Set a bankroll";
+
 /**
  * The sizing result as one band under the inputs, laid out in the FieldGrid's
  * columns: the Kelly fractions, then the move in money, then risk, then log
- * growth at full Kelly, at the current size and at the target.
+ * growth at full Kelly, at the current size and at the target. Money figures
+ * read a dash until there is a bankroll; the fractions and growth never wait
+ * for one.
  */
 export function buildKellyResultItems({
   result,
@@ -47,12 +52,13 @@ export function buildKellyResultItems({
 }: {
   result: KellySizingResult;
   baseCurrency: string;
-  currentGrowth: number;
+  /** Null when the holding is not a share of any bankroll. */
+  currentGrowth: number | null;
   targetGrowth: number;
   width: number;
   columns: number;
 }): StatItem[] {
-  const addTrim = formatCurrency(result.addTrimValue, baseCurrency);
+  const addTrim = result.addTrimValue == null ? MISSING_VALUE : formatCurrency(result.addTrimValue, baseCurrency);
   const units = result.estimatedUnits == null ? null : `${formatNumber(result.estimatedUnits, 1)} units`;
   // The units ride beside the amount when the column has room for label,
   // amount and units (plus the cell inset and gaps); otherwise they take a
@@ -68,14 +74,16 @@ export function buildKellyResultItems({
       value: formatPct(result.clippedFraction, 2),
       tone: result.clipReasons.length > 0 ? "positive" : undefined,
     },
-    { id: "current", label: "Current %", value: formatPct(result.currentFraction, 1) },
-    { id: "target", label: "Target val", value: formatCurrency(result.targetValue, baseCurrency) },
+    { id: "current", label: "Current %", value: result.currentFraction == null ? MISSING_VALUE : formatPct(result.currentFraction, 1) },
+    result.targetValue == null
+      ? { id: "target", label: "Target val", value: MISSING_VALUE, detail: BANKROLL_HINT }
+      : { id: "target", label: "Target val", value: formatCurrency(result.targetValue, baseCurrency) },
     {
       id: "addTrim",
       label: "Add / trim",
       value: addTrim,
       detail: unitsInline ? units ?? undefined : undefined,
-      color: priceColor(result.addTrimValue),
+      color: result.addTrimValue == null ? undefined : priceColor(result.addTrimValue),
     },
     ...(units != null && !unitsInline
       ? [{ id: "units", label: "Units", value: formatNumber(result.estimatedUnits!, 1) }]
@@ -83,9 +91,10 @@ export function buildKellyResultItems({
     {
       id: "risk",
       label: "Risk",
-      value: formatCurrency(result.riskValue, baseCurrency),
+      value: result.riskValue == null ? MISSING_VALUE : formatCurrency(result.riskValue, baseCurrency),
       detail: formatPct(result.riskFraction, 2),
-      tone: "negative",
+      // Nothing at risk is not a loss.
+      tone: result.riskValue != null && result.riskValue > 0 ? "negative" : undefined,
     },
     { id: "worstLoss", label: "Worst loss", value: formatPct(result.downsideLossFraction, 1) },
     {
@@ -95,7 +104,7 @@ export function buildKellyResultItems({
       color: priceColor(result.expectedReturn),
     },
     { id: "fullGrowth", label: "Full growth", value: formatSignedPct(result.expectedLogGrowth) },
-    { id: "growthNow", label: "Growth now", value: formatSignedPct(currentGrowth) },
+    { id: "growthNow", label: "Growth now", value: currentGrowth == null ? MISSING_VALUE : formatSignedPct(currentGrowth) },
     { id: "growthTarget", label: "Growth tgt", value: formatSignedPct(targetGrowth) },
   ];
 }

package/src/plugins/builtin/kelly-sizer/types.ts

@@ -69,25 +69,31 @@ export interface KellySolveResult {
   warning?: string;
 }
 
+/**
+ * The fractions, expected return and growth need no bankroll. The money fields
+ * (target, add or trim, units, risk) are null until there is one, and
+ * `currentFraction` is null for a holding that has no bankroll to be a share of.
+ */
 export interface KellySizingResult {
   mode: KellySizingMode;
   bankroll: number;
   currentValue: number;
-  currentFraction: number;
+  currentFraction: number | null;
   price: number | null;
   fullKellyFraction: number;
   fractionalKellyFraction: number;
   unclippedFraction: number;
   clippedFraction: number;
-  targetValue: number;
-  addTrimValue: number;
+  targetValue: number | null;
+  addTrimValue: number | null;
   estimatedUnits: number | null;
   downsideLossFraction: number;
-  riskValue: number;
+  riskValue: number | null;
   riskFraction: number;
   expectedReturn: number;
   expectedLogGrowth: number;
   warnings: string[];
+  /** The caps that cut the size, in the order applied; the last one set the target. */
   clipReasons: string[];
   recommendationLabel: string;
 }

package/src/plugins/builtin/macro-day/headless.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import type { HeadlessPaneDefinition } from "../../../types/plugin";
 import { resolveHeadlessInstrument } from "../shared/headless-market-data";
 import { loadMacroDayEarnings, loadMacroDayHistory, loadMacroReleases, macroDayEarningsNotice } from "./client";
-import { macroDayEventLabel, macroDayStats, matchesSurprise, projectMacroDays, type MacroDayStats } from "./model";
+import { formatMacroDayMove, macroDayEventLabel, macroDayStats, matchesSurprise, projectMacroDays, type MacroDayStats } from "./model";
 import { MACRO_EVENT_KINDS, MACRO_EVENT_LABELS, MACRO_RELEASE_SOURCES, MACRO_SURPRISE_LABELS, MACRO_SURPRISES, staleMacroReleasesNotice,
   type MacroEventKind, type MacroSurprise } from "./releases";
 
@@ -39,6 +39,12 @@ export const macroDayHeadless: HeadlessPaneDefinition<"bundle"> = {
       releases: releases.releases, coveredThrough: releases.coveredThrough, earnings: earnings.reports });
     const notes = [staleMacroReleasesNotice(releases), macroDayEarningsNotice(earnings)].filter((note): note is string => !!note);
     const row = (label: string, stats: MacroDayStats) => ({ label, ...stats });
+    // A yield index (^TNX) moves by its level: its columns are headed bp and read the change in the yield.
+    const yieldMoves = model.basis === "yield";
+    const bp = (signed: boolean) => (value: unknown) => typeof value === "number" ? formatMacroDayMove(value, "yield", { signed, unit: false }) : "--";
+    const move = yieldMoves ? bp(true) : percent;
+    const absMove = yieldMoves ? bp(false) : percent;
+    const header = (label: string) => yieldMoves ? `${label} bp` : label;
     const release = String(args.options.release ?? "all");
     const surprise = String(args.options.surprise ?? "all") as MacroSurprise | "all";
     const events = model.events.filter((event) => (release === "all" || event.kind === release) && matchesSurprise(event, surprise));
@@ -48,14 +54,14 @@ export const macroDayHeadless: HeadlessPaneDefinition<"bundle"> = {
     return {
       sections: [
         { title: "By release", columns: [{ key: "label", header: "Day" }, { key: "count", header: "Days" },
-          { key: "meanAbs", header: "Avg |move|", format: percent }, { key: "multiple", header: "vs normal", format: multiple },
-          { key: "mean", header: "Avg move", format: percent }, { key: "hitRate", header: "Up", format: share }],
+          { key: "meanAbs", header: header("Avg |move|"), format: absMove }, { key: "multiple", header: "vs normal", format: multiple },
+          { key: "mean", header: header("Avg move"), format: move }, { key: "hitRate", header: "Up", format: share }],
         rows: [...model.kinds.map((kind) => row(MACRO_EVENT_LABELS[kind], model.byKind[kind])), ...selected,
           row(model.kinds.includes("ipca") ? "Any US release" : "Any release", model.allEvents), ...(model.earnings.count ? [row("Earnings", model.earnings)] : []), row("Normal day", model.normal)] },
         { title: "Release days", columns: [{ key: "date", header: "Date" }, { key: "event", header: "Release" },
           { key: "actual", header: "Actual" }, { key: "forecast", header: "Forecast" }, { key: "prior", header: "Prior" },
           { key: "surprise", header: "Surprise" },
-          { key: "session", header: "Session" }, { key: "move", header: "Move", format: percent }, { key: "multiple", header: "vs normal", format: multiple }],
+          { key: "session", header: "Session" }, { key: "move", header: header("Move"), format: move }, { key: "multiple", header: "vs normal", format: multiple }],
         rows: events.map(({ figures, ...event }) => ({ ...event, event: macroDayEventLabel(event), actual: figures?.actual ?? null,
           forecast: figures?.forecast ?? null, prior: figures?.prior ?? null, surprise: figures?.surprise ?? null,
           ...(figures ? { headline: figures.event } : {}) })) },
@@ -64,7 +70,8 @@ export const macroDayHeadless: HeadlessPaneDefinition<"bundle"> = {
       unavailableSymbols: model.events.length ? [] : [instrument.symbol],
       errors: history.error ? [history.error] : [],
       ...(notes.length ? { notes } : {}),
-      metadata: { unit: "decimal return, close to close on the release day", start: model.start, asOf: model.asOf,
+      metadata: { unit: yieldMoves ? "change in the yield in percentage points, close to close on the release day"
+        : "decimal return, close to close on the release day", start: model.start, asOf: model.asOf,
         releasesThrough: releases.coveredThrough, releaseSources: Object.values(MACRO_RELEASE_SOURCES),
         stale: history.stale || earnings.stale, fetchedAt: history.fetchedAt, methodology: "docs/research-data.md#macro-day-reaction" },
     };

package/src/plugins/builtin/macro-day/index.tsx

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ export const macroDayModule: PluginModule = {
   paneTemplates: [{ ...createTickerSurfacePaneTemplate({
     id: "macro-day-pane", paneId: "macro-day", label: "Macro-Day Reaction",
     description: "How a name moves on CPI, jobs, FOMC and Brazil IPCA days against a normal day: average move, direction, hit rate, and every release day with its actual, forecast and prior.",
-    keywords: ["mday", "macro day", "cpi day", "fomc day", "jobs day", "nfp", "payrolls", "event study", "release reaction", "ipca",
+    keywords: ["mday", "macro day", "cpi day", "fomc day", "jobs day", "jobs report", "nfp", "payrolls", "nonfarm", "event study", "release reaction", "ipca",
       "hot cpi", "cpi surprise", "release surprise"],
     shortcut: "MDAY", publicShare: true,
   }), headless: macroDayHeadless }],

package/src/plugins/builtin/macro-day/model.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,8 @@
 import type { EarningsTiming } from "../../../api-client/earnings";
 import type { PricePoint } from "../../../types/financials";
 import { zonedDateTimeParts } from "../../../utils/zoned-date-time";
+import { toBasisPoints } from "../../../utils/basis-points";
+import { isYieldIndexSymbol } from "../../../tickers/index-roots";
 import { MACRO_EVENT_KINDS, MACRO_EVENT_LABELS, US_MACRO_EVENT_KINDS, type MacroEventKind, type MacroRelease, type MacroReleaseFigures,
   type MacroSurprise } from "./releases";
 
@@ -17,6 +19,35 @@ export interface MacroDayEarningsReport {
   reactionSession?: string | null;
 }
 
+/**
+ * How a day's move is measured: a price's return, or for a yield (^TNX, whose
+ * level is the yield in percent) the change in that yield, in percentage
+ * points, which the pane and the report read in basis points.
+ */
+export type MacroDayMoveBasis = "return" | "yield";
+
+/** A Treasury yield index moves by its level: 5.24 to 5.28 is +4bp, not +0.76%. */
+const macroDayMoveBasis = (symbol: string): MacroDayMoveBasis => isYieldIndexSymbol(symbol) ? "yield" : "return";
+
+/**
+ * A move as it reads: a return in percent (`+0.76%`), a yield's change in
+ * basis points (`+4.0bp`, or `+4.0` under a column headed bp). One that
+ * rounds to zero is unsigned.
+ */
+export function formatMacroDayMove(value: number | null | undefined, basis: MacroDayMoveBasis,
+  { signed = true, unit = true }: { signed?: boolean; unit?: boolean } = {}): string {
+  if (value == null) return "--";
+  if (basis === "yield") {
+    const bp = toBasisPoints(value, 1);
+    return `${signed && bp > 0 ? "+" : ""}${bp.toFixed(1)}${unit ? "bp" : ""}`;
+  }
+  const fixed = (value * 100).toFixed(2);
+  return /[1-9]/.test(fixed) ? `${signed && value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${fixed}%` : "0.00%";
+}
+
+/** The decimals a move shows in hundredths (percent of a return, basis points of a yield), for its sign and colour. */
+export const macroDayMoveDecimals = (basis: MacroDayMoveBasis) => basis === "yield" ? 1 : 2;
+
 export interface MacroDayEvent {
   kind: MacroEventKind;
   /** Release day, New York date. */
@@ -25,7 +56,7 @@ export interface MacroDayEvent {
   session: string;
   /** The session is also the reaction session of the ticker's own earnings report: the move is the report's, not the release's. */
   earnings: boolean;
-  /** Close before the release to the session's close. */
+  /** Close before the release to the session's close: a return, or a yield's change in percentage points (`basis`). */
   move: number;
   /** |move| over the normal day's average |move|. */
   multiple: number | null;
@@ -45,6 +76,7 @@ export interface MacroDayStats {
 
 export interface MacroDayModel {
   symbol: string;
+  basis: MacroDayMoveBasis;
   /** Newest first. */
   events: MacroDayEvent[];
   /** The kinds the list carries: the US releases, and IPCA when Gloom Cloud lists its days. */
@@ -140,17 +172,19 @@ export function projectMacroDays(history: readonly PricePoint[], options: {
   earnings?: readonly MacroDayEarningsReport[];
 }): MacroDayModel {
   const { coveredThrough } = options;
+  const basis = macroDayMoveBasis(options.symbol);
   const byDate = new Map<string, number>();
   for (const point of history) {
     const time = new Date(point.date).getTime();
-    if (!Number.isFinite(time) || !Number.isFinite(point.close) || point.close <= 0) continue;
+    // A yield can sit at zero or below it; a price cannot.
+    if (!Number.isFinite(time) || !Number.isFinite(point.close) || (basis === "return" && point.close <= 0)) continue;
     byDate.set(sessionDate(time), point.close);
   }
   const sessions = [...byDate.keys()].sort();
   const last = sessions.at(-1) ?? null;
   const empty = (): MacroDayStats => stats([], null);
   const kinds = MACRO_EVENT_KINDS.filter((kind) => US_KINDS.has(kind) || options.releases.some((release) => release.kind === kind));
-  if (!last) return { symbol: options.symbol, events: [], kinds, byKind: { cpi: empty(), jobs: empty(), fomc: empty(), ipca: empty() },
+  if (!last) return { symbol: options.symbol, basis, events: [], kinds, byKind: { cpi: empty(), jobs: empty(), fomc: empty(), ipca: empty() },
     allEvents: empty(), earnings: empty(), normal: empty(), start: null, asOf: null };
 
   // Sessions after the published lists end may be unlisted release days, so they are left out of both sides.
@@ -166,7 +200,7 @@ export function projectMacroDays(history: readonly PricePoint[], options: {
   for (let index = 1; index < sessions.length; index++) {
     const date = sessions[index]!, previous = sessions[index - 1]!;
     if (date <= start || date > end || dayNumber(date) - dayNumber(previous) > MAX_SESSION_GAP_DAYS) continue;
-    moves.set(date, byDate.get(date)! / byDate.get(previous)! - 1);
+    moves.set(date, basis === "yield" ? byDate.get(date)! - byDate.get(previous)! : byDate.get(date)! / byDate.get(previous)! - 1);
   }
 
   const reactionSessions = new Set<string>();
@@ -191,7 +225,7 @@ export function projectMacroDays(history: readonly PricePoint[], options: {
   const byKind = Object.fromEntries(MACRO_EVENT_KINDS.map((kind) =>
     [kind, stats(events.filter((event) => event.kind === kind && !event.earnings).map((event) => event.move), normalAbs)])) as Record<MacroEventKind, MacroDayStats>;
   const sessionMoves = (flagged: boolean) => [...reactionSessions].filter((session) => reacted.has(session) === flagged).map((session) => moves.get(session)!);
-  return { symbol: options.symbol, events, kinds, byKind, allEvents: stats(sessionMoves(false), normalAbs), earnings: stats(sessionMoves(true), normalAbs),
+  return { symbol: options.symbol, basis, events, kinds, byKind, allEvents: stats(sessionMoves(false), normalAbs), earnings: stats(sessionMoves(true), normalAbs),
     normal, start, asOf: end };
 }