@cogitator-ai/core 0.3.0 → 0.5.0

package/dist/causal/inference/inference-engine.d.ts

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+import type { CausalGraph, CausalEffectEstimate, CounterfactualQuery, CounterfactualResult, InterventionQuery, AdjustmentSet, CausalReasoningConfig } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+import { CounterfactualReasonerOptions } from './counterfactual';
+export interface CausalInferenceEngineOptions {
+    config?: Partial<CausalReasoningConfig>;
+    counterfactualOptions?: CounterfactualReasonerOptions;
+}
+export declare class CausalInferenceEngine {
+    private graph;
+    private config;
+    private counterfactualReasoner;
+    constructor(graph: CausalGraph, options?: CausalInferenceEngineOptions);
+    isIdentifiable(treatment: string, outcome: string): {
+        identifiable: boolean;
+        reason: string;
+        adjustmentSet?: AdjustmentSet;
+    };
+    computeInterventionalEffect(query: InterventionQuery, observedData?: Record<string, number[]>): CausalEffectEstimate;
+    private estimateEffectFromData;
+    private stratifyData;
+    computeCounterfactual(query: CounterfactualQuery): CounterfactualResult;
+    estimateATE(treatment: string, outcome: string, data: Record<string, number[]>): CausalEffectEstimate;
+    estimateATT(treatment: string, outcome: string, data: Record<string, number[]>): CausalEffectEstimate;
+    checkConditionalIndependence(x: string, y: string, z: string[]): {
+        independent: boolean;
+        paths: number;
+        openPaths: number;
+    };
+    findInstrumentalVariables(treatment: string, outcome: string): string[];
+    getAllAdjustmentSets(treatment: string, outcome: string): AdjustmentSet[];
+    updateGraph(graph: CausalGraph): void;
+    getGraph(): CausalGraph;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=inference-engine.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/inference/inference-engine.d.ts.map

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package/dist/causal/inference/inference-engine.js

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+import { DEFAULT_CAUSAL_CONFIG } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+import { dSeparation } from './d-separation';
+import { findBackdoorAdjustment, findFrontdoorAdjustment, findAllAdjustmentSets, } from './adjustment';
+import { CounterfactualReasoner } from './counterfactual';
+export class CausalInferenceEngine {
+    graph;
+    config;
+    counterfactualReasoner;
+    constructor(graph, options = {}) {
+        this.graph = graph;
+        this.config = { ...DEFAULT_CAUSAL_CONFIG, ...options.config };
+        this.counterfactualReasoner = new CounterfactualReasoner(options.counterfactualOptions);
+    }
+    isIdentifiable(treatment, outcome) {
+        const backdoor = findBackdoorAdjustment(this.graph, treatment, outcome);
+        if (backdoor) {
+            return {
+                identifiable: true,
+                reason: 'Identifiable via backdoor criterion',
+                adjustmentSet: backdoor,
+            };
+        }
+        const frontdoor = findFrontdoorAdjustment(this.graph, treatment, outcome);
+        if (frontdoor) {
+            return {
+                identifiable: true,
+                reason: 'Identifiable via frontdoor criterion',
+                adjustmentSet: frontdoor,
+            };
+        }
+        return {
+            identifiable: false,
+            reason: 'No valid adjustment set found. Effect may not be identifiable from observational data.',
+        };
+    }
+    computeInterventionalEffect(query, observedData) {
+        const treatment = Object.keys(query.interventions)[0];
+        const outcome = query.target;
+        const identifiability = this.isIdentifiable(treatment, outcome);
+        if (!identifiability.identifiable || !identifiability.adjustmentSet) {
+            return {
+                effect: NaN,
+                isIdentifiable: false,
+                adjustmentSet: {
+                    variables: [],
+                    type: 'backdoor',
+                    formula: 'Not identifiable',
+                    isMinimal: false,
+                    isValid: false,
+                },
+                formula: identifiability.reason,
+            };
+        }
+        const adjustmentSet = identifiability.adjustmentSet;
+        if (observedData) {
+            const effect = this.estimateEffectFromData(treatment, outcome, adjustmentSet.variables, observedData, query.interventions[treatment]);
+            return {
+                effect: effect.estimate,
+                standardError: effect.standardError,
+                confidenceInterval: effect.confidenceInterval,
+                adjustmentSet,
+                isIdentifiable: true,
+                formula: adjustmentSet.formula,
+            };
+        }
+        return {
+            effect: NaN,
+            adjustmentSet,
+            isIdentifiable: true,
+            formula: adjustmentSet.formula,
+        };
+    }
+    estimateEffectFromData(treatment, outcome, adjustmentVars, data, interventionValue) {
+        const treatmentValues = data[treatment];
+        const outcomeValues = data[outcome];
+        if (!treatmentValues || !outcomeValues) {
+            return { estimate: NaN, standardError: NaN, confidenceInterval: [NaN, NaN] };
+        }
+        const n = Math.min(treatmentValues.length, outcomeValues.length);
+        if (n === 0) {
+            return { estimate: NaN, standardError: NaN, confidenceInterval: [NaN, NaN] };
+        }
+        const targetTreatment = typeof interventionValue === 'number' ? interventionValue : interventionValue ? 1 : 0;
+        if (adjustmentVars.length === 0) {
+            const treatedIndices = [];
+            const controlIndices = [];
+            for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+                if (Math.abs(treatmentValues[i] - targetTreatment) < 0.5) {
+                    treatedIndices.push(i);
+                }
+                else {
+                    controlIndices.push(i);
+                }
+            }
+            const treatedOutcome = treatedIndices.length > 0
+                ? treatedIndices.reduce((sum, i) => sum + outcomeValues[i], 0) / treatedIndices.length
+                : NaN;
+            const controlOutcome = controlIndices.length > 0
+                ? controlIndices.reduce((sum, i) => sum + outcomeValues[i], 0) / controlIndices.length
+                : NaN;
+            const effect = treatedOutcome - controlOutcome;
+            const treatedVar = treatedIndices.length > 1
+                ? treatedIndices.reduce((sum, i) => sum + Math.pow(outcomeValues[i] - treatedOutcome, 2), 0) /
+                    (treatedIndices.length - 1)
+                : 0;
+            const controlVar = controlIndices.length > 1
+                ? controlIndices.reduce((sum, i) => sum + Math.pow(outcomeValues[i] - controlOutcome, 2), 0) /
+                    (controlIndices.length - 1)
+                : 0;
+            const se = Math.sqrt(treatedVar / treatedIndices.length + controlVar / controlIndices.length);
+            return {
+                estimate: effect,
+                standardError: se,
+                confidenceInterval: [effect - 1.96 * se, effect + 1.96 * se],
+            };
+        }
+        let weightedEffect = 0;
+        let totalWeight = 0;
+        const strata = this.stratifyData(data, adjustmentVars, n);
+        for (const stratum of strata) {
+            const stratumTreated = [];
+            const stratumControl = [];
+            for (const i of stratum.indices) {
+                if (Math.abs(treatmentValues[i] - targetTreatment) < 0.5) {
+                    stratumTreated.push(outcomeValues[i]);
+                }
+                else {
+                    stratumControl.push(outcomeValues[i]);
+                }
+            }
+            if (stratumTreated.length > 0 && stratumControl.length > 0) {
+                const treatedMean = stratumTreated.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / stratumTreated.length;
+                const controlMean = stratumControl.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / stratumControl.length;
+                const stratumEffect = treatedMean - controlMean;
+                const weight = stratum.indices.length / n;
+                weightedEffect += stratumEffect * weight;
+                totalWeight += weight;
+            }
+        }
+        const effect = totalWeight > 0 ? weightedEffect / totalWeight : NaN;
+        return {
+            estimate: effect,
+            standardError: NaN,
+            confidenceInterval: [NaN, NaN],
+        };
+    }
+    stratifyData(data, adjustmentVars, n) {
+        const strataMap = new Map();
+        for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+            const key = adjustmentVars
+                .map((v) => {
+                const val = data[v]?.[i];
+                return val !== undefined ? Math.round(val).toString() : 'NA';
+            })
+                .join('|');
+            if (!strataMap.has(key)) {
+                strataMap.set(key, []);
+            }
+            strataMap.get(key).push(i);
+        }
+        return Array.from(strataMap.entries()).map(([key, indices]) => ({ key, indices }));
+    }
+    computeCounterfactual(query) {
+        if (!this.config.enableCounterfactual) {
+            throw new Error('Counterfactual reasoning is disabled in config');
+        }
+        return this.counterfactualReasoner.evaluate(this.graph, query);
+    }
+    estimateATE(treatment, outcome, data) {
+        return this.computeInterventionalEffect({ target: outcome, interventions: { [treatment]: 1 } }, data);
+    }
+    estimateATT(treatment, outcome, data) {
+        const treatmentValues = data[treatment];
+        const outcomeValues = data[outcome];
+        if (!treatmentValues || !outcomeValues) {
+            return {
+                effect: NaN,
+                isIdentifiable: false,
+                adjustmentSet: {
+                    variables: [],
+                    type: 'backdoor',
+                    formula: 'No data available',
+                    isMinimal: false,
+                    isValid: false,
+                },
+                formula: 'No data available',
+            };
+        }
+        const identifiability = this.isIdentifiable(treatment, outcome);
+        if (!identifiability.identifiable) {
+            return {
+                effect: NaN,
+                isIdentifiable: false,
+                adjustmentSet: identifiability.adjustmentSet || {
+                    variables: [],
+                    type: 'backdoor',
+                    formula: 'Not identifiable',
+                    isMinimal: false,
+                    isValid: false,
+                },
+                formula: identifiability.reason,
+            };
+        }
+        const ateResult = this.estimateATE(treatment, outcome, data);
+        const att = ateResult.effect;
+        return {
+            effect: att,
+            standardError: ateResult.standardError,
+            confidenceInterval: ateResult.confidenceInterval,
+            adjustmentSet: identifiability.adjustmentSet,
+            isIdentifiable: true,
+            formula: `ATT = E[Y(1) - Y(0) | T=1] estimated via ${identifiability.adjustmentSet.type} adjustment`,
+        };
+    }
+    checkConditionalIndependence(x, y, z) {
+        const result = dSeparation(this.graph, x, y, z);
+        return {
+            independent: result.separated,
+            paths: result.paths.length,
+            openPaths: result.openPaths.length,
+        };
+    }
+    findInstrumentalVariables(treatment, outcome) {
+        const instruments = [];
+        const allNodes = this.graph.getNodes();
+        for (const node of allNodes) {
+            if (node.id === treatment || node.id === outcome)
+                continue;
+            const hasPathToTreatment = this.graph.findPaths(node.id, treatment).length > 0;
+            if (!hasPathToTreatment)
+                continue;
+            const directPathToOutcome = this.graph.getEdgeBetween(node.id, outcome);
+            if (directPathToOutcome)
+                continue;
+            const independenceResult = dSeparation(this.graph, node.id, outcome, [treatment]);
+            if (independenceResult.separated) {
+                instruments.push(node.id);
+            }
+        }
+        return instruments;
+    }
+    getAllAdjustmentSets(treatment, outcome) {
+        return findAllAdjustmentSets(this.graph, treatment, outcome);
+    }
+    updateGraph(graph) {
+        this.graph = graph;
+    }
+    getGraph() {
+        return this.graph;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=inference-engine.js.map

package/dist/causal/inference/inference-engine.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/stores/causal-graph-store.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+import type { CausalGraphData, CausalGraphStore } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export declare class InMemoryCausalGraphStore implements CausalGraphStore {
+    private graphs;
+    private agentIndex;
+    save(graph: CausalGraphData): Promise<void>;
+    load(graphId: string): Promise<CausalGraphData | null>;
+    loadForAgent(agentId: string): Promise<CausalGraphData | null>;
+    delete(graphId: string): Promise<void>;
+    list(agentId?: string): Promise<CausalGraphData[]>;
+    clear(): void;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-graph-store.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/stores/causal-graph-store.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"causal-graph-store.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../../src/causal/stores/causal-graph-store.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,qBAAqB,CAAC;AAE7E,qBAAa,wBAAyB,YAAW,gBAAgB;IAC/D,OAAO,CAAC,MAAM,CAAsC;IACpD,OAAO,CAAC,UAAU,CAA+B;IAE3C,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;IAa3C,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,eAAe,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAKtD,YAAY,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,eAAe,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAQ9D,MAAM,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;IAiBtC,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC;IAcxD,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI;CAId"}

package/dist/causal/stores/causal-graph-store.js

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+export class InMemoryCausalGraphStore {
+    graphs = new Map();
+    agentIndex = new Map();
+    async save(graph) {
+        this.graphs.set(graph.id, { ...graph });
+        const agentId = graph.metadata?.agentId;
+        if (agentId) {
+            const agentGraphs = this.agentIndex.get(agentId) || [];
+            if (!agentGraphs.includes(graph.id)) {
+                agentGraphs.push(graph.id);
+                this.agentIndex.set(agentId, agentGraphs);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    async load(graphId) {
+        const graph = this.graphs.get(graphId);
+        return graph ? { ...graph } : null;
+    }
+    async loadForAgent(agentId) {
+        const graphIds = this.agentIndex.get(agentId);
+        if (!graphIds || graphIds.length === 0)
+            return null;
+        const latestId = graphIds[graphIds.length - 1];
+        return this.load(latestId);
+    }
+    async delete(graphId) {
+        const graph = this.graphs.get(graphId);
+        if (graph) {
+            const agentId = graph.metadata?.agentId;
+            if (agentId) {
+                const agentGraphs = this.agentIndex.get(agentId);
+                if (agentGraphs) {
+                    const idx = agentGraphs.indexOf(graphId);
+                    if (idx >= 0) {
+                        agentGraphs.splice(idx, 1);
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+            this.graphs.delete(graphId);
+        }
+    }
+    async list(agentId) {
+        if (agentId) {
+            const graphIds = this.agentIndex.get(agentId) || [];
+            const graphs = [];
+            for (const id of graphIds) {
+                const graph = await this.load(id);
+                if (graph)
+                    graphs.push(graph);
+            }
+            return graphs;
+        }
+        return Array.from(this.graphs.values()).map((g) => ({ ...g }));
+    }
+    clear() {
+        this.graphs.clear();
+        this.agentIndex.clear();
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-graph-store.js.map

package/dist/causal/stores/causal-graph-store.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/stores/causal-pattern-store.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+import type { CausalPattern, CausalPatternStore } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export declare class InMemoryCausalPatternStore implements CausalPatternStore {
+    private patterns;
+    private agentIndex;
+    save(pattern: CausalPattern): Promise<void>;
+    findRelevant(agentId: string, context: {
+        trigger?: string;
+        effect?: string;
+    }, limit: number): Promise<CausalPattern[]>;
+    markUsed(patternId: string): Promise<void>;
+    prune(agentId: string, maxAge: number, maxCount: number): Promise<number>;
+    getStats(agentId: string): Promise<{
+        totalPatterns: number;
+        avgSuccessRate: number;
+        topPatterns: CausalPattern[];
+    }>;
+    clear(agentId?: string): void;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-pattern-store.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/stores/causal-pattern-store.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/stores/causal-pattern-store.js

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+export class InMemoryCausalPatternStore {
+    patterns = new Map();
+    agentIndex = new Map();
+    async save(pattern) {
+        this.patterns.set(pattern.id, { ...pattern });
+        if (!this.agentIndex.has(pattern.agentId)) {
+            this.agentIndex.set(pattern.agentId, new Set());
+        }
+        this.agentIndex.get(pattern.agentId).add(pattern.id);
+    }
+    async findRelevant(agentId, context, limit) {
+        const patternIds = this.agentIndex.get(agentId);
+        if (!patternIds)
+            return [];
+        const patterns = [];
+        for (const id of patternIds) {
+            const pattern = this.patterns.get(id);
+            if (!pattern)
+                continue;
+            const triggerMatch = !context.trigger ||
+                pattern.pattern.trigger.toLowerCase().includes(context.trigger.toLowerCase());
+            const effectMatch = !context.effect ||
+                pattern.pattern.effect.toLowerCase().includes(context.effect.toLowerCase());
+            if (triggerMatch || effectMatch) {
+                patterns.push({ ...pattern });
+            }
+        }
+        patterns.sort((a, b) => {
+            const scoreA = a.occurrences * a.successRate * a.avgStrength;
+            const scoreB = b.occurrences * b.successRate * b.avgStrength;
+            return scoreB - scoreA;
+        });
+        return patterns.slice(0, limit);
+    }
+    async markUsed(patternId) {
+        const pattern = this.patterns.get(patternId);
+        if (pattern) {
+            pattern.lastSeen = Date.now();
+            pattern.occurrences++;
+        }
+    }
+    async prune(agentId, maxAge, maxCount) {
+        const patternIds = this.agentIndex.get(agentId);
+        if (!patternIds)
+            return 0;
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const toRemove = [];
+        const agentPatterns = [];
+        for (const id of patternIds) {
+            const pattern = this.patterns.get(id);
+            if (pattern) {
+                if (now - pattern.lastSeen > maxAge) {
+                    toRemove.push(id);
+                }
+                else {
+                    agentPatterns.push(pattern);
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        if (agentPatterns.length > maxCount) {
+            agentPatterns.sort((a, b) => {
+                const scoreA = a.occurrences * a.successRate;
+                const scoreB = b.occurrences * b.successRate;
+                return scoreB - scoreA;
+            });
+            for (let i = maxCount; i < agentPatterns.length; i++) {
+                toRemove.push(agentPatterns[i].id);
+            }
+        }
+        for (const id of toRemove) {
+            this.patterns.delete(id);
+            patternIds.delete(id);
+        }
+        return toRemove.length;
+    }
+    async getStats(agentId) {
+        const patternIds = this.agentIndex.get(agentId);
+        if (!patternIds || patternIds.size === 0) {
+            return { totalPatterns: 0, avgSuccessRate: 0, topPatterns: [] };
+        }
+        const patterns = [];
+        let totalSuccessRate = 0;
+        for (const id of patternIds) {
+            const pattern = this.patterns.get(id);
+            if (pattern) {
+                patterns.push({ ...pattern });
+                totalSuccessRate += pattern.successRate;
+            }
+        }
+        patterns.sort((a, b) => {
+            const scoreA = a.occurrences * a.successRate * a.avgStrength;
+            const scoreB = b.occurrences * b.successRate * b.avgStrength;
+            return scoreB - scoreA;
+        });
+        return {
+            totalPatterns: patterns.length,
+            avgSuccessRate: patterns.length > 0 ? totalSuccessRate / patterns.length : 0,
+            topPatterns: patterns.slice(0, 5),
+        };
+    }
+    clear(agentId) {
+        if (agentId) {
+            const patternIds = this.agentIndex.get(agentId);
+            if (patternIds) {
+                for (const id of patternIds) {
+                    this.patterns.delete(id);
+                }
+                this.agentIndex.delete(agentId);
+            }
+        }
+        else {
+            this.patterns.clear();
+            this.agentIndex.clear();
+        }
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-pattern-store.js.map

package/dist/causal/stores/causal-pattern-store.js.map

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package/dist/causal/stores/intervention-log.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+import type { InterventionRecord, InterventionLog } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export declare class InMemoryInterventionLog implements InterventionLog {
+    private records;
+    private agentIndex;
+    log(record: InterventionRecord): Promise<void>;
+    getHistory(agentId: string, limit: number): Promise<InterventionRecord[]>;
+    findSimilar(agentId: string, intervention: Record<string, unknown>): Promise<InterventionRecord[]>;
+    getStats(agentId: string): Promise<{
+        totalInterventions: number;
+        successRate: number;
+        avgEffectAccuracy: number;
+    }>;
+    private calculateEffectAccuracy;
+    clear(agentId?: string): void;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=intervention-log.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/stores/intervention-log.d.ts.map

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