@cogitator-ai/core 0.3.0 → 0.5.0

package/dist/causal/discovery/causal-validator.d.ts

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+import type { CausalHypothesis, CausalEvidence, ExecutionTrace, LLMBackend } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export interface CausalValidatorOptions {
+    llmBackend: LLMBackend;
+    model?: string;
+    validationThreshold?: number;
+    maxForksPerHypothesis?: number;
+}
+export interface ValidationContext {
+    originalTrace: ExecutionTrace;
+    forkResults: Array<{
+        intervention: Record<string, unknown>;
+        trace: ExecutionTrace;
+    }>;
+}
+export interface ForkRequest {
+    hypothesisId: string;
+    checkpointId: string;
+    intervention: Record<string, unknown>;
+    description: string;
+}
+export declare class CausalValidator {
+    private llm;
+    private model;
+    private validationThreshold;
+    private maxForksPerHypothesis;
+    constructor(options: CausalValidatorOptions);
+    validateHypothesis(hypothesis: CausalHypothesis, context: ValidationContext): Promise<{
+        validated: boolean;
+        adjustedStrength: number;
+        adjustedConfidence: number;
+        evidence: CausalEvidence[];
+        reasoning: string;
+    }>;
+    validateFromObservations(hypothesis: CausalHypothesis, traces: ExecutionTrace[]): Promise<{
+        validated: boolean;
+        adjustedStrength: number;
+        adjustedConfidence: number;
+        evidence: CausalEvidence[];
+    }>;
+    generateForkRequests(hypothesis: CausalHypothesis, checkpointId: string): ForkRequest[];
+    private analyzeTraceForHypothesis;
+    private variablePresentInTrace;
+    private summarizeTrace;
+    private summarizeOutcome;
+    private compareTaces;
+    private describeStep;
+    private getStepResult;
+    private isStepSuccessful;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-validator.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/discovery/causal-validator.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/discovery/causal-validator.js

@@ -0,0 +1,237 @@
+import { buildCausalValidationPrompt, parseValidationResponse } from './prompts';
+export class CausalValidator {
+    llm;
+    model;
+    validationThreshold;
+    maxForksPerHypothesis;
+    constructor(options) {
+        this.llm = options.llmBackend;
+        this.model = options.model ?? 'gpt-4';
+        this.validationThreshold = options.validationThreshold ?? 0.7;
+        this.maxForksPerHypothesis = options.maxForksPerHypothesis ?? 3;
+    }
+    async validateHypothesis(hypothesis, context) {
+        const originalSummary = this.summarizeTrace(context.originalTrace);
+        const forkSummaries = context.forkResults.map((fork) => ({
+            intervention: JSON.stringify(fork.intervention),
+            outcome: this.summarizeOutcome(fork.trace),
+            diffFromOriginal: this.compareTaces(context.originalTrace, fork.trace),
+        }));
+        const prompt = buildCausalValidationPrompt(hypothesis, {
+            id: context.originalTrace.id,
+            summary: originalSummary,
+            outcome: this.summarizeOutcome(context.originalTrace),
+        }, forkSummaries);
+        const response = await this.llm.chat({
+            model: this.model,
+            messages: [{ role: 'user', content: prompt }],
+            temperature: 0.3,
+        });
+        const parsed = parseValidationResponse(response.content);
+        if (!parsed) {
+            return {
+                validated: false,
+                adjustedStrength: hypothesis.strength,
+                adjustedConfidence: hypothesis.confidence * 0.5,
+                evidence: [],
+                reasoning: 'Failed to parse validation response',
+            };
+        }
+        const validated = parsed.verdict === 'validated' && parsed.confidence >= this.validationThreshold;
+        const newEvidence = parsed.evidence.map((e) => ({
+            type: 'counterfactual',
+            description: e.description,
+            strength: e.type === 'supporting' ? parsed.adjustedStrength : 0,
+            timestamp: Date.now(),
+        }));
+        return {
+            validated,
+            adjustedStrength: parsed.adjustedStrength,
+            adjustedConfidence: parsed.confidence,
+            evidence: newEvidence,
+            reasoning: parsed.reasoning,
+        };
+    }
+    async validateFromObservations(hypothesis, traces) {
+        let supportingCount = 0;
+        let refutingCount = 0;
+        const evidence = [];
+        for (const trace of traces) {
+            const analysis = this.analyzeTraceForHypothesis(hypothesis, trace);
+            if (analysis.supports) {
+                supportingCount++;
+                evidence.push({
+                    type: 'observational',
+                    description: analysis.reasoning,
+                    strength: analysis.strength,
+                    traceId: trace.id,
+                    timestamp: Date.now(),
+                });
+            }
+            else if (analysis.refutes) {
+                refutingCount++;
+                evidence.push({
+                    type: 'observational',
+                    description: analysis.reasoning,
+                    strength: -analysis.strength,
+                    traceId: trace.id,
+                    timestamp: Date.now(),
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        const total = supportingCount + refutingCount;
+        if (total === 0) {
+            return {
+                validated: false,
+                adjustedStrength: hypothesis.strength,
+                adjustedConfidence: hypothesis.confidence,
+                evidence: [],
+            };
+        }
+        const supportRatio = supportingCount / total;
+        const adjustedStrength = hypothesis.strength * supportRatio;
+        const adjustedConfidence = Math.min(0.95, hypothesis.confidence + (supportRatio - 0.5) * 0.3);
+        return {
+            validated: supportRatio >= 0.7 && adjustedConfidence >= this.validationThreshold,
+            adjustedStrength,
+            adjustedConfidence,
+            evidence,
+        };
+    }
+    generateForkRequests(hypothesis, checkpointId) {
+        const requests = [];
+        requests.push({
+            hypothesisId: hypothesis.id,
+            checkpointId,
+            intervention: { [hypothesis.cause]: null },
+            description: `Remove ${hypothesis.cause} to test if ${hypothesis.effect} still occurs`,
+        });
+        if (hypothesis.relationType === 'causes' || hypothesis.relationType === 'enables') {
+            requests.push({
+                hypothesisId: hypothesis.id,
+                checkpointId,
+                intervention: { [hypothesis.cause]: 'amplified' },
+                description: `Amplify ${hypothesis.cause} to test if ${hypothesis.effect} increases`,
+            });
+        }
+        if (hypothesis.relationType === 'prevents') {
+            requests.push({
+                hypothesisId: hypothesis.id,
+                checkpointId,
+                intervention: { [hypothesis.cause]: 'removed' },
+                description: `Remove prevention to test if ${hypothesis.effect} occurs`,
+            });
+        }
+        return requests.slice(0, this.maxForksPerHypothesis);
+    }
+    analyzeTraceForHypothesis(hypothesis, trace) {
+        const causePresent = this.variablePresentInTrace(hypothesis.cause, trace);
+        const effectPresent = this.variablePresentInTrace(hypothesis.effect, trace);
+        if (hypothesis.relationType === 'causes' || hypothesis.relationType === 'enables') {
+            if (causePresent && effectPresent) {
+                return {
+                    supports: true,
+                    refutes: false,
+                    strength: 0.6,
+                    reasoning: `Both ${hypothesis.cause} and ${hypothesis.effect} present`,
+                };
+            }
+            if (causePresent && !effectPresent) {
+                return {
+                    supports: false,
+                    refutes: true,
+                    strength: 0.4,
+                    reasoning: `${hypothesis.cause} present but ${hypothesis.effect} absent`,
+                };
+            }
+        }
+        if (hypothesis.relationType === 'prevents') {
+            if (causePresent && !effectPresent) {
+                return {
+                    supports: true,
+                    refutes: false,
+                    strength: 0.6,
+                    reasoning: `${hypothesis.cause} present and ${hypothesis.effect} prevented`,
+                };
+            }
+            if (causePresent && effectPresent) {
+                return {
+                    supports: false,
+                    refutes: true,
+                    strength: 0.5,
+                    reasoning: `${hypothesis.cause} present but ${hypothesis.effect} still occurred`,
+                };
+            }
+        }
+        return {
+            supports: false,
+            refutes: false,
+            strength: 0,
+            reasoning: 'Insufficient evidence in trace',
+        };
+    }
+    variablePresentInTrace(variable, trace) {
+        const searchTerm = variable.toLowerCase();
+        for (const step of trace.steps) {
+            const action = this.describeStep(step).toLowerCase();
+            if (action.includes(searchTerm)) {
+                return true;
+            }
+            const result = this.getStepResult(step)?.toLowerCase();
+            if (result?.includes(searchTerm)) {
+                return true;
+            }
+        }
+        return false;
+    }
+    summarizeTrace(trace) {
+        const steps = trace.steps.slice(-5);
+        return steps
+            .map((s) => `${this.describeStep(s)} → ${this.isStepSuccessful(s) ? 'OK' : 'FAIL'}`)
+            .join('; ');
+    }
+    summarizeOutcome(trace) {
+        const lastStep = trace.steps[trace.steps.length - 1];
+        const success = trace.metrics?.success ?? (lastStep ? this.isStepSuccessful(lastStep) : false);
+        const result = lastStep ? this.getStepResult(lastStep) : null;
+        return `${success ? 'Success' : 'Failure'}: ${result?.substring(0, 100) || 'No result'}`;
+    }
+    compareTaces(original, fork) {
+        const originalSuccess = original.metrics?.success ?? true;
+        const forkSuccess = fork.metrics?.success ?? true;
+        if (originalSuccess !== forkSuccess) {
+            return `Outcome changed from ${originalSuccess ? 'success' : 'failure'} to ${forkSuccess ? 'success' : 'failure'}`;
+        }
+        const originalSteps = original.steps.length;
+        const forkSteps = fork.steps.length;
+        if (originalSteps !== forkSteps) {
+            return `Step count changed from ${originalSteps} to ${forkSteps}`;
+        }
+        let differences = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < Math.min(originalSteps, forkSteps); i++) {
+            if (this.describeStep(original.steps[i]) !== this.describeStep(fork.steps[i])) {
+                differences++;
+            }
+        }
+        if (differences > 0) {
+            return `${differences} steps differed in actions`;
+        }
+        return 'No significant differences observed';
+    }
+    describeStep(step) {
+        if (step.toolCall) {
+            return `${step.toolCall.name}(${JSON.stringify(step.toolCall.arguments)})`;
+        }
+        return step.type;
+    }
+    getStepResult(step) {
+        if (step.toolResult) {
+            return String(step.toolResult.result);
+        }
+        return step.response || null;
+    }
+    isStepSuccessful(step) {
+        return !step.toolResult?.error;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-validator.js.map

package/dist/causal/discovery/causal-validator.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/discovery/hypothesis-generator.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+import type { CausalHypothesis, CausalPattern, ExecutionTrace, LLMBackend } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export interface HypothesisGeneratorOptions {
+    llmBackend: LLMBackend;
+    model?: string;
+    maxHypothesesPerBatch?: number;
+    minExpectedStrength?: number;
+}
+export declare class CausalHypothesisGenerator {
+    private llm;
+    private model;
+    private maxHypothesesPerBatch;
+    private minExpectedStrength;
+    private pendingHypotheses;
+    constructor(options: HypothesisGeneratorOptions);
+    generateHypotheses(patterns: CausalPattern[], traces: ExecutionTrace[], context: {
+        agentId: string;
+        goal?: string;
+    }): Promise<CausalHypothesis[]>;
+    generateFromFailure(trace: ExecutionTrace, context: {
+        agentId: string;
+        errorMessage?: string;
+    }): Promise<CausalHypothesis[]>;
+    generateFromSuccess(trace: ExecutionTrace, context: {
+        agentId: string;
+        outcome: string;
+    }): Promise<CausalHypothesis[]>;
+    getNextHypothesisToTest(agentId: string): CausalHypothesis | null;
+    markHypothesisValidated(hypothesisId: string, adjustedStrength: number, adjustedConfidence: number): void;
+    markHypothesisRejected(hypothesisId: string, reason: string): void;
+    getPendingHypotheses(agentId: string): CausalHypothesis[];
+    getValidatedHypotheses(agentId: string): CausalHypothesis[];
+    clearHypotheses(agentId: string): void;
+    private createHypothesis;
+    private mapRelationType;
+    private summarizeTrace;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=hypothesis-generator.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/discovery/hypothesis-generator.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"hypothesis-generator.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../../src/causal/discovery/hypothesis-generator.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,KAAK,EACV,gBAAgB,EAChB,aAAa,EAEb,cAAc,EACd,UAAU,EACX,MAAM,qBAAqB,CAAC;AAO7B,MAAM,WAAW,0BAA0B;IACzC,UAAU,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC;IACvB,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACf,qBAAqB,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAC/B,mBAAmB,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CAC9B;AAID,qBAAa,yBAAyB;IACpC,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAa;IACxB,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,CAAS;IACtB,OAAO,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAS;IACtC,OAAO,CAAC,mBAAmB,CAAS;IACpC,OAAO,CAAC,iBAAiB,CAAyC;gBAEtD,OAAO,EAAE,0BAA0B;IAOzC,kBAAkB,CACtB,QAAQ,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,EACzB,MAAM,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,EACxB,OAAO,EAAE;QAAE,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;KAAE,GAC1C,OAAO,CAAC,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC;IAsCxB,mBAAmB,CACvB,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EACrB,OAAO,EAAE;QAAE,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QAAC,YAAY,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;KAAE,GAClD,OAAO,CAAC,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC;IA2DxB,mBAAmB,CACvB,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EACrB,OAAO,EAAE;QAAE,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;KAAE,GAC5C,OAAO,CAAC,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC;IAiD9B,uBAAuB,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,gBAAgB,GAAG,IAAI;IAoBjE,uBAAuB,CACrB,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,EACpB,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,EACxB,kBAAkB,EAAE,MAAM,GACzB,IAAI;IAaP,sBAAsB,CAAC,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI;IAiBlE,oBAAoB,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,gBAAgB,EAAE;IAIzD,sBAAsB,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,gBAAgB,EAAE;IAI3D,eAAe,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI;IAItC,OAAO,CAAC,gBAAgB;IAsBxB,OAAO,CAAC,eAAe;IAYvB,OAAO,CAAC,cAAc;CAQvB"}

package/dist/causal/discovery/hypothesis-generator.js

@@ -0,0 +1,228 @@
+import { buildHypothesisGenerationPrompt, parseHypothesisResponse, } from './prompts';
+let hypothesisIdCounter = 0;
+export class CausalHypothesisGenerator {
+    llm;
+    model;
+    maxHypothesesPerBatch;
+    minExpectedStrength;
+    pendingHypotheses = new Map();
+    constructor(options) {
+        this.llm = options.llmBackend;
+        this.model = options.model ?? 'gpt-4';
+        this.maxHypothesesPerBatch = options.maxHypothesesPerBatch ?? 5;
+        this.minExpectedStrength = options.minExpectedStrength ?? 0.3;
+    }
+    async generateHypotheses(patterns, traces, context) {
+        const patternSummaries = patterns.map((p) => ({
+            trigger: p.pattern.trigger,
+            effect: p.pattern.effect,
+            occurrences: p.occurrences,
+        }));
+        const traceSummaries = traces.slice(-10).map((t) => ({
+            id: t.id,
+            summary: this.summarizeTrace(t),
+            success: t.metrics?.success ?? true,
+        }));
+        const prompt = buildHypothesisGenerationPrompt(patternSummaries, traceSummaries, context);
+        const response = await this.llm.chat({
+            model: this.model,
+            messages: [{ role: 'user', content: prompt }],
+            temperature: 0.5,
+        });
+        const parsed = parseHypothesisResponse(response.content);
+        if (!parsed) {
+            return [];
+        }
+        const hypotheses = parsed.hypotheses
+            .filter((h) => h.expectedStrength >= this.minExpectedStrength)
+            .slice(0, this.maxHypothesesPerBatch)
+            .map((h) => this.createHypothesis(h, context.agentId));
+        const existing = this.pendingHypotheses.get(context.agentId) || [];
+        this.pendingHypotheses.set(context.agentId, [...existing, ...hypotheses]);
+        return hypotheses;
+    }
+    async generateFromFailure(trace, context) {
+        const failedSteps = trace.steps.filter((s) => s.toolResult?.error);
+        if (failedSteps.length === 0) {
+            return [];
+        }
+        const describeStep = (s) => s.toolCall ? `${s.toolCall.name}(${JSON.stringify(s.toolCall.arguments)})` : s.type;
+        const prompt = `Analyze this failed execution and generate causal hypotheses about what caused the failure.
+
+Failed steps:
+${failedSteps.map((s) => `- ${describeStep(s)}: ${s.toolResult?.error || 'Unknown error'}`).join('\n')}
+
+Error: ${context.errorMessage || 'Unknown'}
+
+Recent successful steps before failure:
+${trace.steps
+            .filter((s) => !s.toolResult?.error)
+            .slice(-5)
+            .map((s) => `- ${describeStep(s)}`)
+            .join('\n')}
+
+Generate hypotheses about:
+1. What actions or conditions caused the failure
+2. What confounders might have influenced the outcome
+3. What preventive measures could avoid this failure
+
+Respond in JSON format:
+{
+  "hypotheses": [
+    {
+      "cause": "cause_variable",
+      "effect": "failure_effect",
+      "relationType": "causes|enables|prevents",
+      "expectedStrength": 0.8,
+      "rationale": "Why this caused the failure",
+      "testable": true,
+      "testStrategy": "How to test this hypothesis"
+    }
+  ]
+}`;
+        const response = await this.llm.chat({
+            model: this.model,
+            messages: [{ role: 'user', content: prompt }],
+            temperature: 0.4,
+        });
+        const parsed = parseHypothesisResponse(response.content);
+        if (!parsed) {
+            return [];
+        }
+        return parsed.hypotheses.map((h) => this.createHypothesis(h, context.agentId));
+    }
+    async generateFromSuccess(trace, context) {
+        const describeStep = (s) => s.toolCall ? `${s.toolCall.name}(${JSON.stringify(s.toolCall.arguments)})` : s.type;
+        const prompt = `Analyze this successful execution and generate causal hypotheses about what led to success.
+
+Outcome: ${context.outcome}
+
+Key steps:
+${trace.steps
+            .slice(-10)
+            .map((s) => `- [${!s.toolResult?.error ? 'OK' : 'FAIL'}] ${describeStep(s)}`)
+            .join('\n')}
+
+Generate hypotheses about:
+1. What actions were critical for success
+2. What enabling conditions made success possible
+3. What patterns could be reused in future tasks
+
+Respond in JSON format:
+{
+  "hypotheses": [
+    {
+      "cause": "successful_action",
+      "effect": "positive_outcome",
+      "relationType": "causes|enables",
+      "expectedStrength": 0.7,
+      "rationale": "Why this contributed to success",
+      "testable": true,
+      "testStrategy": "How to verify this pattern"
+    }
+  ]
+}`;
+        const response = await this.llm.chat({
+            model: this.model,
+            messages: [{ role: 'user', content: prompt }],
+            temperature: 0.4,
+        });
+        const parsed = parseHypothesisResponse(response.content);
+        if (!parsed) {
+            return [];
+        }
+        return parsed.hypotheses.map((h) => this.createHypothesis(h, context.agentId));
+    }
+    getNextHypothesisToTest(agentId) {
+        const hypotheses = this.pendingHypotheses.get(agentId) || [];
+        const pending = hypotheses.filter((h) => h.status === 'pending');
+        if (pending.length === 0) {
+            return null;
+        }
+        pending.sort((a, b) => {
+            const scoreA = a.strength * a.confidence;
+            const scoreB = b.strength * b.confidence;
+            return scoreB - scoreA;
+        });
+        const selected = pending[0];
+        selected.status = 'testing';
+        return selected;
+    }
+    markHypothesisValidated(hypothesisId, adjustedStrength, adjustedConfidence) {
+        for (const [, hypotheses] of this.pendingHypotheses) {
+            const hypothesis = hypotheses.find((h) => h.id === hypothesisId);
+            if (hypothesis) {
+                hypothesis.status = 'validated';
+                hypothesis.strength = adjustedStrength;
+                hypothesis.confidence = adjustedConfidence;
+                hypothesis.testedAt = Date.now();
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    markHypothesisRejected(hypothesisId, reason) {
+        for (const [, hypotheses] of this.pendingHypotheses) {
+            const hypothesis = hypotheses.find((h) => h.id === hypothesisId);
+            if (hypothesis) {
+                hypothesis.status = 'rejected';
+                hypothesis.testedAt = Date.now();
+                hypothesis.evidence.push({
+                    type: 'counterfactual',
+                    description: `Rejected: ${reason}`,
+                    strength: 0,
+                    timestamp: Date.now(),
+                });
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    getPendingHypotheses(agentId) {
+        return (this.pendingHypotheses.get(agentId) || []).filter((h) => h.status === 'pending');
+    }
+    getValidatedHypotheses(agentId) {
+        return (this.pendingHypotheses.get(agentId) || []).filter((h) => h.status === 'validated');
+    }
+    clearHypotheses(agentId) {
+        this.pendingHypotheses.delete(agentId);
+    }
+    createHypothesis(generated, _agentId) {
+        return {
+            id: `hypothesis-${++hypothesisIdCounter}-${Date.now()}`,
+            cause: generated.cause,
+            effect: generated.effect,
+            relationType: this.mapRelationType(generated.relationType),
+            strength: generated.expectedStrength,
+            confidence: 0.5,
+            source: 'extraction',
+            evidence: [
+                {
+                    type: 'observational',
+                    description: generated.rationale,
+                    strength: generated.expectedStrength,
+                    timestamp: Date.now(),
+                },
+            ],
+            status: 'pending',
+            createdAt: Date.now(),
+        };
+    }
+    mapRelationType(type) {
+        const mapping = {
+            causes: 'causes',
+            enables: 'enables',
+            prevents: 'prevents',
+            mediates: 'mediates',
+            confounds: 'confounds',
+            moderates: 'moderates',
+        };
+        return mapping[type.toLowerCase()] ?? 'causes';
+    }
+    summarizeTrace(trace) {
+        const stepCount = trace.steps.length;
+        const successCount = trace.steps.filter((s) => !s.toolResult?.error).length;
+        const lastStep = trace.steps[trace.steps.length - 1];
+        const lastAction = lastStep?.toolCall?.name || lastStep?.type || 'Unknown';
+        return `${stepCount} steps (${successCount} successful), last: ${lastAction}`;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=hypothesis-generator.js.map

package/dist/causal/discovery/hypothesis-generator.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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