@cogitator-ai/core 0.3.0 → 0.4.0

package/dist/causal/inference/adjustment.js

@@ -0,0 +1,189 @@
+import { dSeparation } from './d-separation';
+export function findBackdoorAdjustment(graph, treatment, outcome) {
+    if (!graph.hasNode(treatment) || !graph.hasNode(outcome)) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    const treatmentDescendants = new Set(graph.getDescendants(treatment).map((n) => n.id));
+    treatmentDescendants.add(treatment);
+    const allNodes = graph.getNodes().map((n) => n.id);
+    const candidates = allNodes.filter((n) => n !== treatment && n !== outcome && !treatmentDescendants.has(n));
+    const minimalSets = [];
+    for (let size = 0; size <= candidates.length; size++) {
+        for (const subset of combinations(candidates, size)) {
+            if (isValidBackdoorSet(graph, treatment, outcome, subset)) {
+                minimalSets.push(subset);
+                if (size === 0 || minimalSets.length > 0) {
+                    const minSize = minimalSets[0].length;
+                    if (subset.length > minSize)
+                        break;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        if (minimalSets.length > 0)
+            break;
+    }
+    if (minimalSets.length === 0) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    const bestSet = minimalSets[0];
+    return {
+        variables: bestSet,
+        type: 'backdoor',
+        formula: generateBackdoorFormula(treatment, outcome, bestSet),
+        isMinimal: true,
+        isValid: true,
+    };
+}
+function isValidBackdoorSet(graph, treatment, outcome, adjustmentSet) {
+    const treatmentDescendants = new Set(graph.getDescendants(treatment).map((n) => n.id));
+    for (const node of adjustmentSet) {
+        if (treatmentDescendants.has(node)) {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+    const modifiedGraph = createGraphWithoutOutgoingEdges(graph, treatment);
+    const result = dSeparation(modifiedGraph, treatment, outcome, adjustmentSet);
+    return result.separated;
+}
+function createGraphWithoutOutgoingEdges(graph, nodeId) {
+    const cloned = graph.clone();
+    const children = graph.getChildren(nodeId);
+    for (const child of children) {
+        const edge = cloned.getEdgeBetween(nodeId, child.id);
+        if (edge) {
+            cloned.removeEdge(edge.id);
+        }
+    }
+    return cloned;
+}
+export function findFrontdoorAdjustment(graph, treatment, outcome) {
+    if (!graph.hasNode(treatment) || !graph.hasNode(outcome)) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    const paths = graph.findPaths(treatment, outcome);
+    if (paths.length === 0) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    const allNodes = graph.getNodes().map((n) => n.id);
+    const candidates = allNodes.filter((n) => n !== treatment && n !== outcome);
+    for (let size = 1; size <= candidates.length; size++) {
+        for (const subset of combinations(candidates, size)) {
+            if (isValidFrontdoorSet(graph, treatment, outcome, subset)) {
+                return {
+                    variables: subset,
+                    type: 'frontdoor',
+                    formula: generateFrontdoorFormula(treatment, outcome, subset),
+                    isMinimal: true,
+                    isValid: true,
+                };
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return null;
+}
+function isValidFrontdoorSet(graph, treatment, outcome, mediators) {
+    const mediatorSet = new Set(mediators);
+    const paths = graph.findPaths(treatment, outcome);
+    for (const path of paths) {
+        let intercepted = false;
+        for (let i = 1; i < path.nodes.length - 1; i++) {
+            if (mediatorSet.has(path.nodes[i])) {
+                intercepted = true;
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+        if (!intercepted)
+            return false;
+    }
+    for (const m of mediators) {
+        const treatmentParents = graph.getParents(treatment);
+        for (const parent of treatmentParents) {
+            if (graph.getEdgeBetween(parent.id, m) ||
+                isAncestor(graph, parent.id, m)) {
+                return false;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    for (const m of mediators) {
+        const confounders = findConfounders(graph, m, outcome);
+        const backdoorSet = [treatment, ...confounders.filter((c) => c !== treatment)];
+        const separated = dSeparation(createGraphWithoutOutgoingEdges(graph, m), m, outcome, backdoorSet);
+        if (!separated.separated) {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+    return true;
+}
+function isAncestor(graph, potential, of) {
+    const ancestors = graph.getAncestors(of);
+    return ancestors.some((a) => a.id === potential);
+}
+function findConfounders(graph, node1, node2) {
+    const ancestors1 = new Set(graph.getAncestors(node1).map((n) => n.id));
+    const ancestors2 = new Set(graph.getAncestors(node2).map((n) => n.id));
+    const confounders = [];
+    for (const a of ancestors1) {
+        if (ancestors2.has(a)) {
+            confounders.push(a);
+        }
+    }
+    return confounders;
+}
+function generateBackdoorFormula(treatment, outcome, adjustmentSet) {
+    if (adjustmentSet.length === 0) {
+        return `P(${outcome}|do(${treatment})) = Σ P(${outcome}|${treatment})`;
+    }
+    const adjustVars = adjustmentSet.join(', ');
+    return `P(${outcome}|do(${treatment})) = Σ_{${adjustVars}} P(${outcome}|${treatment}, ${adjustVars}) P(${adjustVars})`;
+}
+function generateFrontdoorFormula(treatment, outcome, mediators) {
+    const m = mediators.join(', ');
+    return `P(${outcome}|do(${treatment})) = Σ_{${m}} P(${m}|${treatment}) Σ_{${treatment}'} P(${outcome}|${m}, ${treatment}') P(${treatment}')`;
+}
+export function findAllAdjustmentSets(graph, treatment, outcome, maxSize = 5) {
+    const results = [];
+    const backdoor = findBackdoorAdjustment(graph, treatment, outcome);
+    if (backdoor) {
+        results.push(backdoor);
+    }
+    const frontdoor = findFrontdoorAdjustment(graph, treatment, outcome);
+    if (frontdoor) {
+        results.push(frontdoor);
+    }
+    const treatmentDescendants = new Set(graph.getDescendants(treatment).map((n) => n.id));
+    const allNodes = graph.getNodes().map((n) => n.id);
+    const candidates = allNodes.filter((n) => n !== treatment && n !== outcome && !treatmentDescendants.has(n));
+    for (let size = 0; size <= Math.min(maxSize, candidates.length); size++) {
+        for (const subset of combinations(candidates, size)) {
+            if (isValidBackdoorSet(graph, treatment, outcome, subset)) {
+                const exists = results.some((r) => r.type === 'backdoor' &&
+                    r.variables.length === subset.length &&
+                    r.variables.every((v) => subset.includes(v)));
+                if (!exists) {
+                    results.push({
+                        variables: subset,
+                        type: 'backdoor',
+                        formula: generateBackdoorFormula(treatment, outcome, subset),
+                        isMinimal: size === (backdoor?.variables.length ?? 0),
+                        isValid: true,
+                    });
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return results;
+}
+function* combinations(arr, size) {
+    if (size === 0) {
+        yield [];
+        return;
+    }
+    if (arr.length < size)
+        return;
+    for (let i = 0; i <= arr.length - size; i++) {
+        for (const rest of combinations(arr.slice(i + 1), size - 1)) {
+            yield [arr[i], ...rest];
+        }
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=adjustment.js.map

package/dist/causal/inference/adjustment.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/inference/counterfactual.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+import type { CausalGraph, CounterfactualQuery, CounterfactualResult } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export interface CounterfactualReasonerOptions {
+    defaultNoiseMean?: number;
+    defaultNoiseStd?: number;
+    maxIterations?: number;
+    convergenceThreshold?: number;
+}
+export declare class CounterfactualReasoner {
+    private options;
+    constructor(options?: CounterfactualReasonerOptions);
+    evaluate(graph: CausalGraph, query: CounterfactualQuery): CounterfactualResult;
+    private abduction;
+    private action;
+    private prediction;
+    private evaluateEquation;
+    private evaluateEquationWithNoise;
+    private computeValue;
+    private sampleNoise;
+    private sampleGaussian;
+    private toNumber;
+    private generateExplanation;
+}
+export declare function evaluateCounterfactual(graph: CausalGraph, query: CounterfactualQuery, options?: CounterfactualReasonerOptions): CounterfactualResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=counterfactual.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/inference/counterfactual.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/inference/counterfactual.js

@@ -0,0 +1,199 @@
+export class CounterfactualReasoner {
+    options;
+    constructor(options = {}) {
+        this.options = {
+            defaultNoiseMean: options.defaultNoiseMean ?? 0,
+            defaultNoiseStd: options.defaultNoiseStd ?? 1,
+            maxIterations: options.maxIterations ?? 100,
+            convergenceThreshold: options.convergenceThreshold ?? 0.001,
+        };
+    }
+    evaluate(graph, query) {
+        const abductionResult = this.abduction(graph, query.factual);
+        const actionResult = this.action(graph, query.intervention, abductionResult);
+        const predictionResult = this.prediction(graph, query.target, actionResult);
+        const factualValue = query.factual[query.target] ?? this.computeValue(graph, query.target, query.factual, abductionResult);
+        return {
+            query,
+            factualValue,
+            counterfactualValue: predictionResult.value,
+            probability: predictionResult.probability,
+            explanation: this.generateExplanation(query, factualValue, predictionResult.value),
+            reasoning: {
+                abduction: abductionResult,
+                action: actionResult,
+                prediction: predictionResult.values,
+            },
+        };
+    }
+    abduction(graph, factual) {
+        const noiseTerms = {};
+        const sortedNodes = graph.topologicalSort();
+        for (const nodeId of sortedNodes) {
+            const node = graph.getNode(nodeId);
+            if (!node)
+                continue;
+            if (factual[nodeId] !== undefined && node.equation) {
+                const observedValue = this.toNumber(factual[nodeId]);
+                const predictedValue = this.evaluateEquation(node.equation, graph, nodeId, factual, {});
+                noiseTerms[nodeId] = observedValue - predictedValue;
+            }
+            else {
+                noiseTerms[nodeId] = this.sampleNoise(node);
+            }
+        }
+        return noiseTerms;
+    }
+    action(_graph, intervention, noiseTerms) {
+        const result = {};
+        for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(noiseTerms)) {
+            result[key] = value;
+        }
+        for (const [variable, value] of Object.entries(intervention)) {
+            result[variable] = value;
+        }
+        return result;
+    }
+    prediction(graph, target, state) {
+        const sortedNodes = graph.topologicalSort();
+        const computedValues = { ...state };
+        for (const nodeId of sortedNodes) {
+            if (computedValues[nodeId] !== undefined && typeof computedValues[nodeId] !== 'number') {
+                continue;
+            }
+            const node = graph.getNode(nodeId);
+            if (!node)
+                continue;
+            if (node.equation) {
+                const noiseValue = typeof computedValues[nodeId] === 'number'
+                    ? computedValues[nodeId]
+                    : 0;
+                const parentValues = {};
+                for (const parent of graph.getParents(nodeId)) {
+                    if (computedValues[parent.id] !== undefined) {
+                        parentValues[parent.id] = computedValues[parent.id];
+                    }
+                }
+                computedValues[nodeId] = this.evaluateEquationWithNoise(node.equation, parentValues, noiseValue);
+            }
+        }
+        return {
+            value: computedValues[target] ?? 0,
+            probability: 1.0,
+            values: computedValues,
+        };
+    }
+    evaluateEquation(equation, graph, nodeId, values, _noiseTerms) {
+        const parents = graph.getParents(nodeId);
+        const parentValues = {};
+        for (const parent of parents) {
+            if (values[parent.id] !== undefined) {
+                parentValues[parent.id] = values[parent.id];
+            }
+        }
+        return this.evaluateEquationWithNoise(equation, parentValues, 0);
+    }
+    evaluateEquationWithNoise(equation, parentValues, noise) {
+        switch (equation.type) {
+            case 'linear': {
+                let result = equation.intercept ?? 0;
+                if (equation.coefficients) {
+                    for (const [variable, coefficient] of Object.entries(equation.coefficients)) {
+                        const value = this.toNumber(parentValues[variable] ?? 0);
+                        result += coefficient * value;
+                    }
+                }
+                return result + noise;
+            }
+            case 'logistic': {
+                let linearPart = equation.intercept ?? 0;
+                if (equation.coefficients) {
+                    for (const [variable, coefficient] of Object.entries(equation.coefficients)) {
+                        const value = this.toNumber(parentValues[variable] ?? 0);
+                        linearPart += coefficient * value;
+                    }
+                }
+                linearPart += noise;
+                return 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-linearPart));
+            }
+            case 'polynomial': {
+                let result = equation.intercept ?? 0;
+                if (equation.coefficients) {
+                    for (const [variable, coefficient] of Object.entries(equation.coefficients)) {
+                        const value = this.toNumber(parentValues[variable] ?? 0);
+                        const [varName, powerStr] = variable.split('^');
+                        const power = powerStr ? parseInt(powerStr, 10) : 1;
+                        const actualValue = this.toNumber(parentValues[varName] ?? value);
+                        result += coefficient * Math.pow(actualValue, power);
+                    }
+                }
+                return result + noise;
+            }
+            case 'custom': {
+                return noise;
+            }
+            default:
+                return noise;
+        }
+    }
+    computeValue(graph, target, observed, noiseTerms) {
+        const node = graph.getNode(target);
+        if (!node || !node.equation) {
+            return observed[target] ?? 0;
+        }
+        const parentValues = {};
+        for (const parent of graph.getParents(target)) {
+            parentValues[parent.id] = observed[parent.id] ?? 0;
+        }
+        return this.evaluateEquationWithNoise(node.equation, parentValues, noiseTerms[target] ?? 0);
+    }
+    sampleNoise(node) {
+        const params = node.equation?.noiseParams ?? {};
+        const distribution = node.equation?.noiseDistribution ?? 'gaussian';
+        switch (distribution) {
+            case 'gaussian': {
+                const mean = params.mean ?? this.options.defaultNoiseMean;
+                const std = params.std ?? this.options.defaultNoiseStd;
+                return this.sampleGaussian(mean, std);
+            }
+            case 'uniform': {
+                const min = params.min ?? -1;
+                const max = params.max ?? 1;
+                return min + Math.random() * (max - min);
+            }
+            case 'bernoulli': {
+                const p = params.p ?? 0.5;
+                return Math.random() < p ? 1 : 0;
+            }
+            default:
+                return 0;
+        }
+    }
+    sampleGaussian(mean, std) {
+        const u1 = Math.random();
+        const u2 = Math.random();
+        const z = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(u1)) * Math.cos(2 * Math.PI * u2);
+        return mean + std * z;
+    }
+    toNumber(value) {
+        if (typeof value === 'number')
+            return value;
+        if (typeof value === 'boolean')
+            return value ? 1 : 0;
+        const parsed = parseFloat(value);
+        return isNaN(parsed) ? 0 : parsed;
+    }
+    generateExplanation(query, factualValue, counterfactualValue) {
+        const interventionDesc = Object.entries(query.intervention)
+            .map(([k, v]) => `${k}=${v}`)
+            .join(', ');
+        return `Given the factual observation where ${query.target}=${factualValue}, ` +
+            `if we had intervened to set ${interventionDesc}, ` +
+            `then ${query.target} would have been ${counterfactualValue}.`;
+    }
+}
+export function evaluateCounterfactual(graph, query, options) {
+    const reasoner = new CounterfactualReasoner(options);
+    return reasoner.evaluate(graph, query);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=counterfactual.js.map

package/dist/causal/inference/counterfactual.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/inference/d-separation.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+import type { CausalGraph, DSeparationResult } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export declare function dSeparation(graph: CausalGraph, x: string | string[], y: string | string[], z?: string[]): DSeparationResult;
+export declare function findMinimalSeparatingSet(graph: CausalGraph, x: string | string[], y: string | string[], forbidden?: Set<string>): string[] | null;
+//# sourceMappingURL=d-separation.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/inference/d-separation.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/inference/d-separation.js

@@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
+export function dSeparation(graph, x, y, z = []) {
+    const xSet = new Set(Array.isArray(x) ? x : [x]);
+    const ySet = new Set(Array.isArray(y) ? y : [y]);
+    const zSet = new Set(z);
+    const allPaths = [];
+    for (const xNode of xSet) {
+        for (const yNode of ySet) {
+            const paths = findAllUndirectedPaths(graph, xNode, yNode);
+            allPaths.push(...paths);
+        }
+    }
+    const blockedPaths = [];
+    const openPaths = [];
+    for (const path of allPaths) {
+        const blockResult = isPathBlocked(graph, path, zSet);
+        if (blockResult.blocked) {
+            path.isBlocked = true;
+            path.blockingNodes = blockResult.blockingNodes;
+            blockedPaths.push(path);
+        }
+        else {
+            openPaths.push(path);
+        }
+    }
+    return {
+        separated: openPaths.length === 0,
+        paths: allPaths,
+        blockedPaths,
+        openPaths,
+    };
+}
+function findAllUndirectedPaths(graph, from, to, maxLength = 10) {
+    const paths = [];
+    const visited = new Set();
+    const dfs = (current, path, depth) => {
+        if (depth > maxLength)
+            return;
+        if (current === to && path.length > 1) {
+            paths.push({
+                nodes: [...path],
+                edges: [],
+                totalStrength: 1,
+                isBlocked: false,
+                blockingNodes: [],
+            });
+            return;
+        }
+        visited.add(current);
+        const neighbors = new Set();
+        for (const parent of graph.getParents(current)) {
+            neighbors.add(parent.id);
+        }
+        for (const child of graph.getChildren(current)) {
+            neighbors.add(child.id);
+        }
+        for (const neighbor of neighbors) {
+            if (!visited.has(neighbor)) {
+                dfs(neighbor, [...path, neighbor], depth + 1);
+            }
+        }
+        visited.delete(current);
+    };
+    dfs(from, [from], 0);
+    return paths;
+}
+function isPathBlocked(graph, path, conditioningSet) {
+    const blockingNodes = [];
+    for (let i = 1; i < path.nodes.length - 1; i++) {
+        const prev = path.nodes[i - 1];
+        const curr = path.nodes[i];
+        const next = path.nodes[i + 1];
+        const tripleType = getLocalTripleType(graph, prev, curr, next);
+        if (tripleType === 'chain' || tripleType === 'fork') {
+            if (conditioningSet.has(curr)) {
+                blockingNodes.push(curr);
+            }
+        }
+        else if (tripleType === 'collider') {
+            const colliderOrDescendantInZ = isColliderOrDescendantInSet(graph, curr, conditioningSet);
+            if (!colliderOrDescendantInZ) {
+                blockingNodes.push(curr);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    const blocked = blockingNodes.length > 0 || hasAllBlockedTriples(graph, path, conditioningSet);
+    return { blocked, blockingNodes };
+}
+function getLocalTripleType(graph, a, b, c) {
+    const aToB = graph.getEdgeBetween(a, b) !== undefined;
+    const bToA = graph.getEdgeBetween(b, a) !== undefined;
+    const bToC = graph.getEdgeBetween(b, c) !== undefined;
+    const cToB = graph.getEdgeBetween(c, b) !== undefined;
+    if ((aToB && bToC) || (cToB && bToA)) {
+        return 'chain';
+    }
+    if (bToA && bToC) {
+        return 'fork';
+    }
+    if (aToB && cToB) {
+        return 'collider';
+    }
+    if (aToB || bToA) {
+        if (bToC || cToB) {
+            return 'chain';
+        }
+    }
+    return 'chain';
+}
+function isColliderOrDescendantInSet(graph, nodeId, conditioningSet) {
+    if (conditioningSet.has(nodeId))
+        return true;
+    const descendants = graph.getDescendants(nodeId);
+    for (const desc of descendants) {
+        if (conditioningSet.has(desc.id))
+            return true;
+    }
+    return false;
+}
+function hasAllBlockedTriples(graph, path, conditioningSet) {
+    if (path.nodes.length < 3)
+        return false;
+    for (let i = 1; i < path.nodes.length - 1; i++) {
+        const prev = path.nodes[i - 1];
+        const curr = path.nodes[i];
+        const next = path.nodes[i + 1];
+        const tripleType = getLocalTripleType(graph, prev, curr, next);
+        if (tripleType === 'chain' || tripleType === 'fork') {
+            if (conditioningSet.has(curr)) {
+                return true;
+            }
+        }
+        else if (tripleType === 'collider') {
+            if (!isColliderOrDescendantInSet(graph, curr, conditioningSet)) {
+                return true;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return false;
+}
+export function findMinimalSeparatingSet(graph, x, y, forbidden = new Set()) {
+    const xSet = new Set(Array.isArray(x) ? x : [x]);
+    const ySet = new Set(Array.isArray(y) ? y : [y]);
+    const allNodes = graph.getNodes().map((n) => n.id);
+    const candidates = allNodes.filter((n) => !xSet.has(n) && !ySet.has(n) && !forbidden.has(n));
+    for (let size = 0; size <= candidates.length; size++) {
+        for (const subset of combinations(candidates, size)) {
+            const result = dSeparation(graph, x, y, subset);
+            if (result.separated) {
+                return subset;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return null;
+}
+function* combinations(arr, size) {
+    if (size === 0) {
+        yield [];
+        return;
+    }
+    if (arr.length < size)
+        return;
+    for (let i = 0; i <= arr.length - size; i++) {
+        for (const rest of combinations(arr.slice(i + 1), size - 1)) {
+            yield [arr[i], ...rest];
+        }
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=d-separation.js.map

package/dist/causal/inference/d-separation.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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