@cogitator-ai/core 0.3.0 → 0.4.0

package/dist/causal/capabilities/causal-planner.js

@@ -0,0 +1,289 @@
+import { CausalEffectPredictor } from './effect-predictor';
+export class CausalPlanner {
+    llm;
+    model;
+    effectPredictor;
+    maxPlanSteps;
+    maxAlternatives;
+    robustnessThreshold;
+    constructor(options) {
+        this.llm = options.llmBackend;
+        this.model = options.model ?? 'gpt-4';
+        this.effectPredictor = new CausalEffectPredictor({ llmBackend: options.llmBackend });
+        this.maxPlanSteps = options.maxPlanSteps ?? 10;
+        this.maxAlternatives = options.maxAlternatives ?? 2;
+        this.robustnessThreshold = options.robustnessThreshold ?? 0.6;
+    }
+    async planForGoal(goal, goalValue, graph, context, constraints) {
+        const interventions = this.findInterventions(goal, goalValue, graph, context);
+        const filteredInterventions = this.applyConstraints(interventions, constraints);
+        const steps = await this.buildPlanSteps(filteredInterventions, graph, context);
+        const robustness = await this.analyzeRobustness(steps, graph, context);
+        const expectedOutcome = this.calculateExpectedOutcome(steps);
+        const reasoning = await this.generatePlanReasoning(goal, goalValue, steps, context);
+        return {
+            goal,
+            goalValue,
+            steps,
+            expectedOutcome,
+            robustness,
+            estimatedCost: this.estimateCost(steps),
+            reasoning,
+        };
+    }
+    findInterventions(target, targetValue, graph, _context) {
+        const interventions = [];
+        const parents = graph.getParents(target);
+        for (const parent of parents) {
+            const edge = graph.getEdgeBetween(parent.id, target);
+            if (!edge)
+                continue;
+            let interventionValue;
+            if (edge.relationType === 'causes' || edge.relationType === 'enables') {
+                interventionValue = typeof targetValue === 'boolean' ? targetValue : 1;
+            }
+            else if (edge.relationType === 'prevents') {
+                interventionValue = typeof targetValue === 'boolean' ? !targetValue : 0;
+            }
+            else {
+                interventionValue = 1;
+            }
+            interventions.push({
+                variable: parent.id,
+                value: interventionValue,
+                effectiveness: edge.strength * edge.confidence,
+            });
+        }
+        const ancestors = graph.getAncestors(target);
+        for (const ancestor of ancestors) {
+            if (parents.some((p) => p.id === ancestor.id))
+                continue;
+            const paths = graph.findPaths(ancestor.id, target);
+            if (paths.length === 0)
+                continue;
+            const bestPath = paths.reduce((a, b) => a.totalStrength > b.totalStrength ? a : b);
+            if (bestPath.totalStrength > 0.3) {
+                interventions.push({
+                    variable: ancestor.id,
+                    value: 1,
+                    effectiveness: bestPath.totalStrength * 0.8,
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        interventions.sort((a, b) => b.effectiveness - a.effectiveness);
+        return interventions;
+    }
+    async reverseEngineer(desiredOutcome, graph, context) {
+        const plans = [];
+        for (const [outcome, value] of Object.entries(desiredOutcome)) {
+            const plan = await this.planForGoal(outcome, value, graph, context);
+            plans.push(plan);
+        }
+        plans.sort((a, b) => b.expectedOutcome.probability - a.expectedOutcome.probability);
+        return plans;
+    }
+    async analyzeRobustness(steps, graph, _context) {
+        const vulnerabilities = [];
+        let robustnessScore = 1.0;
+        for (const step of steps) {
+            if (step.expectedEffect.confidence < this.robustnessThreshold) {
+                vulnerabilities.push(`Step ${step.order}: Low confidence (${Math.round(step.expectedEffect.confidence * 100)}%)`);
+                robustnessScore *= step.expectedEffect.confidence;
+            }
+            for (const sideEffect of step.expectedEffect.sideEffects) {
+                if (sideEffect.unintended && sideEffect.probability > 0.3) {
+                    vulnerabilities.push(`Step ${step.order}: Risk of unintended ${sideEffect.variable}`);
+                    robustnessScore *= 1 - sideEffect.probability * 0.3;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        for (const step of steps) {
+            const node = graph.getNode(step.target);
+            if (node) {
+                const confounders = graph.getParents(step.target).filter((p) => p.variableType === 'confounder');
+                for (const confounder of confounders) {
+                    if (!steps.some((s) => s.target === confounder.id)) {
+                        vulnerabilities.push(`Uncontrolled confounder: ${confounder.id} affects ${step.target}`);
+                        robustnessScore *= 0.9;
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        const backupPlans = [];
+        for (const step of steps) {
+            if (step.alternatives && step.alternatives.length > 0) {
+                const alternativeSteps = steps.map((s) => s.order === step.order ? step.alternatives[0] : s);
+                backupPlans.push({
+                    goal: 'backup',
+                    goalValue: true,
+                    steps: alternativeSteps,
+                    expectedOutcome: { probability: 0.6, confidence: 0.5 },
+                    robustness: { score: 0.5, vulnerabilities: [], backupPlans: [] },
+                    estimatedCost: this.estimateCost(alternativeSteps),
+                    reasoning: `Backup plan using alternative for step ${step.order}`,
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        return {
+            score: Math.max(0, robustnessScore),
+            vulnerabilities,
+            backupPlans: backupPlans.slice(0, 2),
+        };
+    }
+    applyConstraints(interventions, constraints) {
+        if (!constraints)
+            return interventions;
+        let filtered = interventions;
+        if (constraints.forbidden) {
+            filtered = filtered.filter((i) => !constraints.forbidden.includes(i.variable));
+        }
+        if (constraints.required) {
+            for (const required of constraints.required) {
+                if (!filtered.some((i) => i.variable === required)) {
+                    filtered.push({
+                        variable: required,
+                        value: 1,
+                        effectiveness: 0.5,
+                    });
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return filtered;
+    }
+    async buildPlanSteps(interventions, graph, context) {
+        const steps = [];
+        const sortedInterventions = this.topologicalSortInterventions(interventions, graph);
+        for (let i = 0; i < Math.min(sortedInterventions.length, this.maxPlanSteps); i++) {
+            const intervention = sortedInterventions[i];
+            const action = `Set ${intervention.variable} to ${intervention.value}`;
+            const expectedEffect = await this.effectPredictor.predictEffect(action, graph, context);
+            const preconditions = this.findPreconditions(intervention.variable, graph);
+            const alternatives = await this.findAlternativeSteps(intervention, graph, context);
+            steps.push({
+                order: i + 1,
+                action,
+                target: intervention.variable,
+                value: intervention.value,
+                expectedEffect,
+                preconditions,
+                alternatives,
+            });
+        }
+        return steps;
+    }
+    topologicalSortInterventions(interventions, graph) {
+        const variableSet = new Set(interventions.map((i) => i.variable));
+        const sorted = [];
+        const visited = new Set();
+        const visit = (variable) => {
+            if (visited.has(variable))
+                return;
+            visited.add(variable);
+            const parents = graph.getParents(variable);
+            for (const parent of parents) {
+                if (variableSet.has(parent.id)) {
+                    visit(parent.id);
+                }
+            }
+            const intervention = interventions.find((i) => i.variable === variable);
+            if (intervention) {
+                sorted.push(intervention);
+            }
+        };
+        for (const intervention of interventions) {
+            visit(intervention.variable);
+        }
+        return sorted;
+    }
+    findPreconditions(variable, graph) {
+        const preconditions = [];
+        const parents = graph.getParents(variable);
+        for (const parent of parents) {
+            const edge = graph.getEdgeBetween(parent.id, variable);
+            if (edge?.relationType === 'enables') {
+                preconditions.push(`${parent.id} must be active`);
+            }
+        }
+        return preconditions;
+    }
+    async findAlternativeSteps(intervention, graph, context) {
+        const alternatives = [];
+        const siblings = graph.getParents(intervention.variable);
+        for (const sibling of siblings.slice(0, this.maxAlternatives)) {
+            if (sibling.variableType === 'treatment') {
+                const action = `Use ${sibling.id} instead of ${intervention.variable}`;
+                const expectedEffect = await this.effectPredictor.predictEffect(action, graph, context);
+                alternatives.push({
+                    order: 0,
+                    action,
+                    target: sibling.id,
+                    value: intervention.value,
+                    expectedEffect,
+                    preconditions: [],
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        return alternatives;
+    }
+    calculateExpectedOutcome(steps) {
+        if (steps.length === 0) {
+            return { probability: 0, confidence: 0 };
+        }
+        let probability = 1.0;
+        let totalConfidence = 0;
+        for (const step of steps) {
+            const mainEffects = step.expectedEffect.effects;
+            if (mainEffects.length > 0) {
+                const avgProbability = mainEffects.reduce((sum, e) => sum + e.probability, 0) / mainEffects.length;
+                probability *= avgProbability;
+            }
+            totalConfidence += step.expectedEffect.confidence;
+        }
+        return {
+            probability: Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability)),
+            confidence: totalConfidence / steps.length,
+        };
+    }
+    estimateCost(steps) {
+        let cost = 0;
+        for (const step of steps) {
+            cost += 1;
+            cost += step.preconditions.length * 0.5;
+            for (const sideEffect of step.expectedEffect.sideEffects) {
+                if (sideEffect.unintended) {
+                    cost += sideEffect.probability * 2;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return cost;
+    }
+    async generatePlanReasoning(goal, goalValue, steps, context) {
+        const prompt = `Explain the reasoning behind this causal plan.
+
+Goal: ${goal} = ${goalValue}
+
+Planned steps:
+${steps.map((s) => `${s.order}. ${s.action} (targeting ${s.target})`).join('\n')}
+
+Context:
+- Agent: ${context.agentId}
+- Current state: ${JSON.stringify(context.observedVariables)}
+
+Provide a brief explanation (2-3 sentences) of:
+1. Why these steps were chosen
+2. The causal chain from interventions to goal
+3. Key assumptions made`;
+        try {
+            const response = await this.llm.chat({
+                model: this.model,
+                messages: [{ role: 'user', content: prompt }],
+                temperature: 0.3,
+            });
+            return response.content.trim();
+        }
+        catch {
+            return `Plan to achieve ${goal}=${goalValue} through ${steps.length} interventions targeting the causal pathway.`;
+        }
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-planner.js.map

package/dist/causal/capabilities/causal-planner.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/capabilities/effect-predictor.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+import type { CausalGraph, CausalContext, PredictedEffect, CausalActionEvaluation, LLMBackend, ThoughtBranch } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export interface EffectPredictorOptions {
+    llmBackend: LLMBackend;
+    model?: string;
+    safetyThresholds?: {
+        maxRisk: number;
+        minConfidence: number;
+    };
+}
+export declare class CausalEffectPredictor {
+    private llm;
+    private model;
+    private safetyThresholds;
+    constructor(options: EffectPredictorOptions);
+    predictEffect(action: string, graph: CausalGraph, context: CausalContext): Promise<PredictedEffect>;
+    predictEffectsBatch(branches: ThoughtBranch[], graph: CausalGraph, context: CausalContext): Promise<Map<string, PredictedEffect>>;
+    evaluateSafety(action: string, graph: CausalGraph, context: CausalContext): Promise<CausalActionEvaluation>;
+    whatIf(scenario: {
+        action: string;
+        conditions: Record<string, unknown>;
+    }, graph: CausalGraph, context: CausalContext): Promise<PredictedEffect[]>;
+    private findRelevantNodes;
+    private predictDirectEffects;
+    private predictSideEffects;
+    private enhanceWithLLM;
+    private isNegativeOutcome;
+    private findRelatedActions;
+    private normalizeConditions;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=effect-predictor.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/capabilities/effect-predictor.d.ts.map

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package/dist/causal/capabilities/effect-predictor.js

@@ -0,0 +1,270 @@
+import { CausalInferenceEngine } from '../inference/inference-engine';
+export class CausalEffectPredictor {
+    llm;
+    model;
+    safetyThresholds;
+    constructor(options) {
+        this.llm = options.llmBackend;
+        this.model = options.model ?? 'gpt-4';
+        this.safetyThresholds = options.safetyThresholds ?? {
+            maxRisk: 0.7,
+            minConfidence: 0.3,
+        };
+    }
+    async predictEffect(action, graph, context) {
+        const engine = new CausalInferenceEngine(graph);
+        const relevantNodes = this.findRelevantNodes(action, graph);
+        const directEffects = this.predictDirectEffects(action, relevantNodes, graph, engine);
+        const sideEffects = this.predictSideEffects(action, relevantNodes, graph, engine, context);
+        const llmEnhanced = await this.enhanceWithLLM(action, directEffects, sideEffects, context);
+        return {
+            action,
+            effects: llmEnhanced.effects,
+            sideEffects: llmEnhanced.sideEffects,
+            confidence: llmEnhanced.confidence,
+            reasoning: llmEnhanced.reasoning,
+        };
+    }
+    async predictEffectsBatch(branches, graph, context) {
+        const results = new Map();
+        const predictions = await Promise.all(branches.map(async (branch) => {
+            const prediction = await this.predictEffect(branch.thought, graph, context);
+            return { branchId: branch.id, prediction };
+        }));
+        for (const { branchId, prediction } of predictions) {
+            results.set(branchId, prediction);
+        }
+        return results;
+    }
+    async evaluateSafety(action, graph, context) {
+        const prediction = await this.predictEffect(action, graph, context);
+        const warnings = [];
+        const recommendations = [];
+        const blockedReasons = [];
+        let riskScore = 0;
+        for (const sideEffect of prediction.sideEffects) {
+            if (sideEffect.unintended && sideEffect.probability > 0.5) {
+                riskScore += sideEffect.probability * 0.3;
+                warnings.push(`Potential unintended effect on ${sideEffect.variable} (${Math.round(sideEffect.probability * 100)}% probability)`);
+            }
+        }
+        for (const effect of prediction.effects) {
+            if (this.isNegativeOutcome(effect.variable, effect.expectedValue)) {
+                riskScore += effect.probability * 0.5;
+                warnings.push(`May cause negative outcome: ${effect.variable} = ${effect.expectedValue}`);
+            }
+        }
+        let riskLevel;
+        if (riskScore < 0.2) {
+            riskLevel = 'low';
+        }
+        else if (riskScore < 0.4) {
+            riskLevel = 'medium';
+        }
+        else if (riskScore < 0.7) {
+            riskLevel = 'high';
+            recommendations.push('Consider alternative approaches');
+        }
+        else {
+            riskLevel = 'critical';
+            blockedReasons.push('Risk score exceeds safety threshold');
+        }
+        const isSafe = riskScore < this.safetyThresholds.maxRisk &&
+            prediction.confidence >= this.safetyThresholds.minConfidence;
+        if (!isSafe && blockedReasons.length === 0) {
+            if (prediction.confidence < this.safetyThresholds.minConfidence) {
+                warnings.push('Low confidence in effect prediction');
+                recommendations.push('Gather more information before proceeding');
+            }
+        }
+        return {
+            action,
+            isSafe,
+            riskLevel,
+            predictedEffects: prediction,
+            warnings,
+            recommendations,
+            blockedReasons: blockedReasons.length > 0 ? blockedReasons : undefined,
+        };
+    }
+    async whatIf(scenario, graph, context) {
+        const predictions = [];
+        const baseContext = {
+            ...context,
+            observedVariables: {
+                ...context.observedVariables,
+                ...this.normalizeConditions(scenario.conditions),
+            },
+        };
+        const mainPrediction = await this.predictEffect(scenario.action, graph, baseContext);
+        predictions.push(mainPrediction);
+        const relatedActions = this.findRelatedActions(scenario.action, graph);
+        for (const relatedAction of relatedActions.slice(0, 3)) {
+            const prediction = await this.predictEffect(relatedAction, graph, baseContext);
+            predictions.push(prediction);
+        }
+        return predictions;
+    }
+    findRelevantNodes(action, graph) {
+        const nodes = graph.getNodes();
+        const relevant = [];
+        const actionWords = action.toLowerCase().split(/\s+/);
+        for (const node of nodes) {
+            const nodeWords = [
+                node.id.toLowerCase(),
+                node.name.toLowerCase(),
+            ];
+            for (const actionWord of actionWords) {
+                for (const nodeWord of nodeWords) {
+                    if (nodeWord.includes(actionWord) || actionWord.includes(nodeWord)) {
+                        relevant.push(node.id);
+                        break;
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return [...new Set(relevant)];
+    }
+    predictDirectEffects(_action, relevantNodes, graph, _engine) {
+        const effects = [];
+        for (const nodeId of relevantNodes) {
+            const children = graph.getChildren(nodeId);
+            for (const child of children) {
+                const edge = graph.getEdgeBetween(nodeId, child.id);
+                if (!edge)
+                    continue;
+                let expectedValue;
+                if (edge.relationType === 'causes' || edge.relationType === 'enables') {
+                    expectedValue = true;
+                }
+                else if (edge.relationType === 'prevents') {
+                    expectedValue = false;
+                }
+                else {
+                    expectedValue = edge.strength;
+                }
+                effects.push({
+                    variable: child.id,
+                    expectedValue,
+                    probability: edge.strength * edge.confidence,
+                    mechanism: edge.mechanism || `${nodeId} ${edge.relationType} ${child.id}`,
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        return effects;
+    }
+    predictSideEffects(_action, relevantNodes, graph, _engine, _context) {
+        const sideEffects = [];
+        const directEffectNodes = new Set();
+        for (const nodeId of relevantNodes) {
+            for (const child of graph.getChildren(nodeId)) {
+                directEffectNodes.add(child.id);
+            }
+        }
+        for (const nodeId of relevantNodes) {
+            const descendants = graph.getDescendants(nodeId);
+            for (const descendant of descendants) {
+                if (directEffectNodes.has(descendant.id))
+                    continue;
+                const paths = graph.findPaths(nodeId, descendant.id);
+                if (paths.length === 0)
+                    continue;
+                const bestPath = paths.reduce((a, b) => a.totalStrength > b.totalStrength ? a : b);
+                sideEffects.push({
+                    variable: descendant.id,
+                    expectedValue: bestPath.totalStrength > 0.5,
+                    probability: bestPath.totalStrength * 0.8,
+                    unintended: true,
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        return sideEffects;
+    }
+    async enhanceWithLLM(action, directEffects, sideEffects, context) {
+        const prompt = `Analyze the predicted effects of this action and provide reasoning.
+
+Action: ${action}
+
+Direct effects predicted:
+${directEffects.map((e) => `- ${e.variable}: ${e.expectedValue} (${Math.round(e.probability * 100)}% probability) via ${e.mechanism}`).join('\n')}
+
+Side effects predicted:
+${sideEffects.map((e) => `- ${e.variable}: ${e.expectedValue} (${Math.round(e.probability * 100)}% probability, ${e.unintended ? 'unintended' : 'intended'})`).join('\n')}
+
+Current context:
+- Agent: ${context.agentId}
+- Observed: ${JSON.stringify(context.observedVariables)}
+
+Provide:
+1. Confidence in these predictions (0-1)
+2. Reasoning for the predictions
+3. Any additional effects not captured
+
+Respond in JSON:
+{
+  "confidence": 0.75,
+  "reasoning": "Explanation of the causal chain",
+  "additionalEffects": []
+}`;
+        try {
+            const response = await this.llm.chat({
+                model: this.model,
+                messages: [{ role: 'user', content: prompt }],
+                temperature: 0.3,
+            });
+            const match = response.content.match(/\{[\s\S]*\}/);
+            if (match) {
+                const parsed = JSON.parse(match[0]);
+                return {
+                    action,
+                    effects: directEffects,
+                    sideEffects,
+                    confidence: parsed.confidence ?? 0.5,
+                    reasoning: parsed.reasoning ?? 'No reasoning provided',
+                };
+            }
+        }
+        catch {
+        }
+        return {
+            action,
+            effects: directEffects,
+            sideEffects,
+            confidence: 0.5,
+            reasoning: 'Based on causal graph analysis',
+        };
+    }
+    isNegativeOutcome(variable, value) {
+        const negativePatterns = ['error', 'fail', 'crash', 'loss', 'damage', 'risk'];
+        const varLower = variable.toLowerCase();
+        for (const pattern of negativePatterns) {
+            if (varLower.includes(pattern)) {
+                return value === true || (typeof value === 'number' && value > 0.5);
+            }
+        }
+        return false;
+    }
+    findRelatedActions(action, graph) {
+        const nodes = graph.getNodes();
+        const related = [];
+        for (const node of nodes) {
+            if (node.variableType === 'treatment' && !action.includes(node.id)) {
+                related.push(`Apply ${node.name}`);
+            }
+        }
+        return related;
+    }
+    normalizeConditions(conditions) {
+        const normalized = {};
+        for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(conditions)) {
+            if (typeof value === 'number' || typeof value === 'string' || typeof value === 'boolean') {
+                normalized[key] = value;
+            }
+            else {
+                normalized[key] = String(value);
+            }
+        }
+        return normalized;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=effect-predictor.js.map

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