@cogitator-ai/core 0.3.0 → 0.4.0

package/README.md

@@ -51,6 +51,7 @@ console.log(result.output);
 - **Tree-of-Thought** - Advanced reasoning with branch exploration
 - **Agent Optimizer** - DSPy-style learning from traces
 - **Time Travel** - Checkpoint, replay, fork, and compare executions
+- **Causal Reasoning** - Pearl's do-calculus, counterfactuals, d-separation
 - **Resilience** - Retry, circuit breaker, and fallback patterns
 - **Observability** - Full tracing with spans and callbacks
 
@@ -717,6 +718,106 @@ const liveReplay = await timeTravel.replayLive(agent, checkpointId, {
 
 ---
 
+## Causal Reasoning
+
+Full causal reasoning framework implementing Pearl's Ladder of Causation:
+
+- **Level 1 (Association)**: Observational queries P(Y|X)
+- **Level 2 (Intervention)**: do-calculus P(Y|do(X))
+- **Level 3 (Counterfactual)**: "What if" queries P(Y_x|X', Y')
+
+### Building Causal Graphs
+
+```typescript
+import { CausalGraphBuilder, CausalInferenceEngine } from '@cogitator-ai/core';
+
+const graph = CausalGraphBuilder.create('medical-study')
+  .treatment('X', 'Drug Treatment')
+  .outcome('Y', 'Recovery')
+  .confounder('Z', 'Age')
+  .from('Z')
+  .causes('X')
+  .from('Z')
+  .causes('Y')
+  .from('X')
+  .causes('Y', { strength: 0.8 })
+  .build();
+
+const engine = new CausalInferenceEngine(graph);
+```
+
+### Effect Identification
+
+```typescript
+const identifiable = engine.isIdentifiable('X', 'Y');
+if (identifiable.identifiable) {
+  console.log('Effect is identifiable via:', identifiable.method);
+  console.log('Adjustment set:', identifiable.adjustmentSet);
+}
+```
+
+### Interventional Queries
+
+```typescript
+const effect = engine.computeInterventionalEffect({
+  target: 'Y',
+  interventions: { X: 1 },
+  observed: { Z: 0.5 },
+});
+
+console.log('Expected effect:', effect.effect);
+console.log('Confidence:', effect.confidence);
+```
+
+### Counterfactual Reasoning
+
+```typescript
+import { evaluateCounterfactual } from '@cogitator-ai/core';
+
+const result = evaluateCounterfactual(graph, {
+  target: 'Y',
+  intervention: { X: 1 },
+  factual: { X: 0, Y: 0.2 },
+  question: 'What would Y be if X was 1?',
+});
+
+console.log('Factual value:', result.factualValue);
+console.log('Counterfactual value:', result.counterfactualValue);
+```
+
+### D-Separation Analysis
+
+```typescript
+import { dSeparation, findBackdoorAdjustment } from '@cogitator-ai/core';
+
+const separated = dSeparation(graph, 'X', 'Y', ['Z']);
+console.log('D-separated:', separated.separated);
+
+const backdoor = findBackdoorAdjustment(graph, 'X', 'Y');
+if (backdoor?.isValid) {
+  console.log('Backdoor adjustment set:', backdoor.variables);
+}
+```
+
+### Causal Discovery from Traces
+
+```typescript
+import { CausalExtractor, CausalHypothesisGenerator } from '@cogitator-ai/core';
+
+const extractor = new CausalExtractor({ llmBackend: backend });
+
+const relations = await extractor.extractFromToolResult(
+  { name: 'database_query', arguments: { table: 'users' } },
+  { rows: 100, cached: true },
+  { agentId: 'agent-1' }
+);
+
+const generator = new CausalHypothesisGenerator({ llmBackend: backend });
+const hypotheses = await generator.generateFromFailure(trace, { agentId: 'agent-1' });
+```
+
+---
+
 ## Error Handling & Resilience
 
 ### Retry with Backoff
@@ -894,6 +995,22 @@ import type {
 } from '@cogitator-ai/core';
 ```
 
+### Causal Types
+
+```typescript
+import type {
+  CausalNode,
+  CausalEdge,
+  CausalGraph,
+  CausalRelationType,
+  InterventionQuery,
+  CounterfactualQuery,
+  CausalHypothesis,
+  CausalEvidence,
+  StructuralEquation,
+} from '@cogitator-ai/core';
+```
+
 ### Error Types
 
 ```typescript

package/dist/causal/capabilities/causal-explainer.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+import type { CausalGraph, CausalContext, CausalExplanation, ExecutionTrace, LLMBackend } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export interface CausalExplainerOptions {
+    llmBackend: LLMBackend;
+    model?: string;
+    maxRootCauses?: number;
+    maxCounterfactuals?: number;
+}
+export declare class CausalExplainer {
+    private llm;
+    private model;
+    private maxRootCauses;
+    private maxCounterfactuals;
+    constructor(options: CausalExplainerOptions);
+    explainCause(effect: string, effectValue: number | string | boolean, graph: CausalGraph, context: CausalContext): Promise<CausalExplanation>;
+    analyzeError(error: {
+        message: string;
+        stack?: string;
+    }, trace: ExecutionTrace, _graph: CausalGraph, context: CausalContext): Promise<CausalExplanation>;
+    analyzeSuccess(outcome: string, trace: ExecutionTrace, graph: CausalGraph): Promise<CausalExplanation>;
+    private findRootCauses;
+    private findContributingFactors;
+    private generateCounterfactuals;
+    private generateSummary;
+    private calculateConfidence;
+    private describeMechanism;
+    private suggestIntervention;
+    private getAlternativeValue;
+    private findRelevantNodes;
+    private describeStep;
+    private isStepSuccessful;
+    private createBasicErrorExplanation;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-explainer.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/capabilities/causal-explainer.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/capabilities/causal-explainer.js

@@ -0,0 +1,327 @@
+import { CounterfactualReasoner } from '../inference/counterfactual';
+import { buildErrorCausalAnalysisPrompt, parseRootCauseResponse } from '../discovery/prompts';
+export class CausalExplainer {
+    llm;
+    model;
+    maxRootCauses;
+    maxCounterfactuals;
+    constructor(options) {
+        this.llm = options.llmBackend;
+        this.model = options.model ?? 'gpt-4';
+        this.maxRootCauses = options.maxRootCauses ?? 5;
+        this.maxCounterfactuals = options.maxCounterfactuals ?? 3;
+    }
+    async explainCause(effect, effectValue, graph, context) {
+        const rootCauses = this.findRootCauses(effect, graph, context);
+        const contributingFactors = this.findContributingFactors(effect, graph);
+        const counterfactuals = await this.generateCounterfactuals(effect, effectValue, graph, context);
+        const summary = this.generateSummary(effect, effectValue, rootCauses);
+        const confidence = this.calculateConfidence(rootCauses, contributingFactors);
+        return {
+            effect,
+            effectValue,
+            rootCauses,
+            contributingFactors,
+            counterfactuals,
+            summary,
+            confidence,
+        };
+    }
+    async analyzeError(error, trace, _graph, context) {
+        const recentActions = trace.steps.slice(-10).map((s) => this.describeStep(s));
+        const prompt = buildErrorCausalAnalysisPrompt(error, trace, {
+            recentActions,
+            systemState: context.observedVariables,
+        });
+        const response = await this.llm.chat({
+            model: this.model,
+            messages: [{ role: 'user', content: prompt }],
+            temperature: 0.3,
+        });
+        const parsed = parseRootCauseResponse(response.content);
+        if (!parsed) {
+            return this.createBasicErrorExplanation(error, trace);
+        }
+        const rootCauses = parsed.rootCauses.map((rc) => ({
+            variable: rc.variable,
+            contribution: rc.contribution,
+            mechanism: rc.description,
+            path: { nodes: [], edges: [], totalStrength: rc.contribution, isBlocked: false, blockingNodes: [] },
+            confidence: rc.contribution,
+            actionable: rc.actionable,
+            suggestedIntervention: parsed.preventiveInterventions.find((p) => p.target === rc.variable)?.action,
+        }));
+        const contributingFactors = parsed.causalChain.map((c) => ({
+            variable: c.from,
+            contribution: 0.5,
+            direction: 'negative',
+        }));
+        return {
+            effect: 'error',
+            effectValue: error.message,
+            rootCauses,
+            contributingFactors,
+            counterfactuals: parsed.preventiveInterventions.map((p) => ({
+                change: `${p.target}: ${p.action}`,
+                wouldPrevent: true,
+                confidence: 0.7,
+            })),
+            summary: parsed.reasoning,
+            confidence: 0.7,
+        };
+    }
+    async analyzeSuccess(outcome, trace, graph) {
+        const successfulSteps = trace.steps.filter((s) => this.isStepSuccessful(s));
+        const rootCauses = [];
+        const contributingFactors = [];
+        for (const step of successfulSteps.slice(-5)) {
+            const stepDesc = this.describeStep(step);
+            const relevantNodes = this.findRelevantNodes(stepDesc, graph);
+            for (const nodeId of relevantNodes) {
+                const paths = graph.findPaths(nodeId, outcome);
+                if (paths.length > 0) {
+                    const bestPath = paths.reduce((a, b) => a.totalStrength > b.totalStrength ? a : b);
+                    rootCauses.push({
+                        variable: nodeId,
+                        contribution: bestPath.totalStrength,
+                        mechanism: `${stepDesc} enabled ${outcome}`,
+                        path: bestPath,
+                        confidence: bestPath.totalStrength,
+                        actionable: true,
+                    });
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        rootCauses.sort((a, b) => b.contribution - a.contribution);
+        return {
+            effect: outcome,
+            effectValue: true,
+            rootCauses: rootCauses.slice(0, this.maxRootCauses),
+            contributingFactors,
+            counterfactuals: [],
+            summary: `Success achieved through ${rootCauses.length} contributing factors`,
+            confidence: 0.7,
+        };
+    }
+    findRootCauses(effect, graph, context) {
+        const rootCauses = [];
+        const effectNode = graph.getNode(effect);
+        if (!effectNode) {
+            return rootCauses;
+        }
+        const ancestors = graph.getAncestors(effect);
+        const rootNodes = ancestors.filter((ancestor) => {
+            const parents = graph.getParents(ancestor.id);
+            return parents.length === 0;
+        });
+        for (const root of rootNodes) {
+            const paths = graph.findPaths(root.id, effect);
+            if (paths.length === 0)
+                continue;
+            const bestPath = paths.reduce((a, b) => a.totalStrength > b.totalStrength ? a : b);
+            const isObserved = context.observedVariables[root.id] !== undefined;
+            rootCauses.push({
+                variable: root.id,
+                contribution: bestPath.totalStrength,
+                mechanism: this.describeMechanism(bestPath),
+                path: bestPath,
+                confidence: isObserved ? 0.9 : 0.6,
+                actionable: root.variableType === 'treatment' || root.variableType === 'observed',
+                suggestedIntervention: this.suggestIntervention(root.id, bestPath, graph),
+            });
+        }
+        for (const ancestor of ancestors) {
+            if (rootNodes.some((r) => r.id === ancestor.id))
+                continue;
+            const directEdge = graph.getEdgeBetween(ancestor.id, effect);
+            if (!directEdge)
+                continue;
+            const parents = graph.getParents(ancestor.id);
+            if (parents.length === 0) {
+                rootCauses.push({
+                    variable: ancestor.id,
+                    contribution: directEdge.strength,
+                    mechanism: directEdge.mechanism || `Direct ${directEdge.relationType} relationship`,
+                    path: {
+                        nodes: [ancestor.id, effect],
+                        edges: [directEdge],
+                        totalStrength: directEdge.strength,
+                        isBlocked: false,
+                        blockingNodes: [],
+                    },
+                    confidence: directEdge.confidence,
+                    actionable: ancestor.variableType !== 'latent',
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        rootCauses.sort((a, b) => b.contribution - a.contribution);
+        return rootCauses.slice(0, this.maxRootCauses);
+    }
+    findContributingFactors(effect, graph) {
+        const factors = [];
+        const parents = graph.getParents(effect);
+        for (const parent of parents) {
+            const edge = graph.getEdgeBetween(parent.id, effect);
+            if (!edge)
+                continue;
+            let direction;
+            if (edge.relationType === 'causes' || edge.relationType === 'enables') {
+                direction = 'positive';
+            }
+            else if (edge.relationType === 'prevents') {
+                direction = 'negative';
+            }
+            else {
+                direction = edge.strength > 0 ? 'positive' : 'negative';
+            }
+            factors.push({
+                variable: parent.id,
+                contribution: Math.abs(edge.strength),
+                direction,
+            });
+        }
+        factors.sort((a, b) => b.contribution - a.contribution);
+        return factors;
+    }
+    async generateCounterfactuals(effect, effectValue, graph, context) {
+        const counterfactuals = [];
+        const parents = graph.getParents(effect);
+        const reasoner = new CounterfactualReasoner();
+        for (const parent of parents.slice(0, this.maxCounterfactuals)) {
+            const edge = graph.getEdgeBetween(parent.id, effect);
+            if (!edge)
+                continue;
+            const currentValue = context.observedVariables[parent.id];
+            const alternativeValue = this.getAlternativeValue(currentValue);
+            const result = reasoner.evaluate(graph, {
+                target: effect,
+                intervention: { [parent.id]: alternativeValue },
+                factual: context.observedVariables,
+                question: `What if ${parent.id} was ${alternativeValue}?`,
+            });
+            const wouldPrevent = result.counterfactualValue !== effectValue;
+            counterfactuals.push({
+                change: `If ${parent.id} was ${alternativeValue} instead of ${currentValue}`,
+                wouldPrevent,
+                confidence: edge.confidence,
+            });
+        }
+        return counterfactuals;
+    }
+    generateSummary(effect, effectValue, rootCauses) {
+        if (rootCauses.length === 0) {
+            return `Unable to determine root causes for ${effect} = ${effectValue}`;
+        }
+        const topCause = rootCauses[0];
+        const otherCauses = rootCauses.slice(1, 3);
+        let summary = `The primary cause of ${effect} = ${effectValue} is ${topCause.variable} (${Math.round(topCause.contribution * 100)}% contribution)`;
+        if (topCause.mechanism) {
+            summary += ` through ${topCause.mechanism}`;
+        }
+        if (otherCauses.length > 0) {
+            summary += `. Contributing factors include ${otherCauses.map((c) => c.variable).join(', ')}`;
+        }
+        if (topCause.suggestedIntervention) {
+            summary += `. To change this outcome, consider: ${topCause.suggestedIntervention}`;
+        }
+        return summary;
+    }
+    calculateConfidence(rootCauses, contributingFactors) {
+        if (rootCauses.length === 0)
+            return 0.1;
+        const avgRootCauseConfidence = rootCauses.reduce((sum, rc) => sum + rc.confidence, 0) / rootCauses.length;
+        const totalContribution = contributingFactors.reduce((sum, f) => sum + f.contribution, 0);
+        const contributionFactor = Math.min(1, totalContribution);
+        return avgRootCauseConfidence * 0.7 + contributionFactor * 0.3;
+    }
+    describeMechanism(path) {
+        if (path.nodes.length <= 2) {
+            const edge = path.edges[0];
+            return edge?.mechanism || 'Direct causal relationship';
+        }
+        const steps = path.edges.map((edge) => {
+            return `${edge.source} ${edge.relationType} ${edge.target}`;
+        });
+        return `Causal chain: ${steps.join(' → ')}`;
+    }
+    suggestIntervention(variable, path, graph) {
+        const node = graph.getNode(variable);
+        if (!node)
+            return undefined;
+        if (node.variableType === 'treatment') {
+            return `Modify ${variable} to change the outcome`;
+        }
+        if (node.variableType === 'confounder') {
+            return `Control for ${variable} to eliminate confounding`;
+        }
+        if (path.edges.length > 0) {
+            const firstEdge = path.edges[0];
+            if (firstEdge.relationType === 'prevents') {
+                return `Enable ${variable} to prevent the effect`;
+            }
+            return `Adjust ${variable} to modify the causal pathway`;
+        }
+        return undefined;
+    }
+    getAlternativeValue(currentValue) {
+        if (typeof currentValue === 'boolean') {
+            return !currentValue;
+        }
+        if (typeof currentValue === 'number') {
+            return currentValue === 0 ? 1 : 0;
+        }
+        return 'alternative';
+    }
+    findRelevantNodes(description, graph) {
+        const nodes = graph.getNodes();
+        const relevant = [];
+        const descLower = description.toLowerCase();
+        for (const node of nodes) {
+            if (descLower.includes(node.id.toLowerCase()) ||
+                descLower.includes(node.name.toLowerCase())) {
+                relevant.push(node.id);
+            }
+        }
+        return relevant;
+    }
+    describeStep(step) {
+        if (step.toolCall) {
+            return `${step.toolCall.name}(${JSON.stringify(step.toolCall.arguments)})`;
+        }
+        if (step.response) {
+            return step.response.substring(0, 100);
+        }
+        return `step-${step.type}-${step.index}`;
+    }
+    isStepSuccessful(step) {
+        if (step.toolResult) {
+            return !step.toolResult.error;
+        }
+        return step.response !== undefined;
+    }
+    createBasicErrorExplanation(error, trace) {
+        const failedStep = trace.steps.find((s) => !this.isStepSuccessful(s));
+        return {
+            effect: 'error',
+            effectValue: error.message,
+            rootCauses: failedStep
+                ? [
+                    {
+                        variable: 'failed_step',
+                        contribution: 1,
+                        mechanism: `Step "${this.describeStep(failedStep)}" failed`,
+                        path: { nodes: [], edges: [], totalStrength: 1, isBlocked: false, blockingNodes: [] },
+                        confidence: 0.5,
+                        actionable: true,
+                        suggestedIntervention: 'Review and fix the failed step',
+                    },
+                ]
+                : [],
+            contributingFactors: [],
+            counterfactuals: [],
+            summary: `Error occurred: ${error.message}`,
+            confidence: 0.3,
+        };
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-explainer.js.map

package/dist/causal/capabilities/causal-explainer.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/causal/capabilities/causal-planner.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+import type { CausalGraph, CausalContext, CausalPlan, CausalPlanStep, LLMBackend } from '@cogitator-ai/types';
+export interface CausalPlannerOptions {
+    llmBackend: LLMBackend;
+    model?: string;
+    maxPlanSteps?: number;
+    maxAlternatives?: number;
+    robustnessThreshold?: number;
+}
+export declare class CausalPlanner {
+    private llm;
+    private model;
+    private effectPredictor;
+    private maxPlanSteps;
+    private maxAlternatives;
+    private robustnessThreshold;
+    constructor(options: CausalPlannerOptions);
+    planForGoal(goal: string, goalValue: number | string | boolean, graph: CausalGraph, context: CausalContext, constraints?: {
+        forbidden?: string[];
+        required?: string[];
+        maxCost?: number;
+    }): Promise<CausalPlan>;
+    findInterventions(target: string, targetValue: number | string | boolean, graph: CausalGraph, _context: CausalContext): Array<{
+        variable: string;
+        value: unknown;
+        effectiveness: number;
+    }>;
+    reverseEngineer(desiredOutcome: Record<string, number | string | boolean>, graph: CausalGraph, context: CausalContext): Promise<CausalPlan[]>;
+    analyzeRobustness(steps: CausalPlanStep[], graph: CausalGraph, _context: CausalContext): Promise<{
+        score: number;
+        vulnerabilities: string[];
+        backupPlans: CausalPlan[];
+    }>;
+    private applyConstraints;
+    private buildPlanSteps;
+    private topologicalSortInterventions;
+    private findPreconditions;
+    private findAlternativeSteps;
+    private calculateExpectedOutcome;
+    private estimateCost;
+    private generatePlanReasoning;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=causal-planner.d.ts.map

package/dist/causal/capabilities/causal-planner.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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