@ak--47/dungeon-master 1.5.3 → 1.6.0

package/dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,184 @@
+-- ============================================================
+-- ai-platform.js — v1.6 human-inspection queries (DuckDB)
+--
+-- Every query is keyed to a story id in ai-platform.js's `stories` export;
+-- the machine-checked verdicts come from:
+--   node scripts/verify-stories.mjs dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.js --data-prefix verify-ai-platform
+-- Generate first:
+--   node scripts/verify-runner.mjs dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.js verify-ai-platform
+-- Run this file:
+--   duckdb -c ".read dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.sql"
+-- ============================================================
+
+-- ── identity-resolution prelude ─────────────────────────────
+-- avgDevicePerUser: 2 + organization created is both isAuthEvent and
+-- isFirstEvent, so born users auth on their first event; the device-pool
+-- resolve is belt-and-braces for any device-only edge.
+CREATE OR REPLACE VIEW users AS
+SELECT * FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-ai-platform-USERS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true);
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE VIEW device_map AS
+-- profiles store the device pool under the legacy "anonymousIds" key
+SELECT unnest("anonymousIds") AS device_id, distinct_id FROM users;
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE VIEW ev AS
+-- ::VARCHAR casts — user_id sniffs as UUID, device_id as VARCHAR; DuckDB
+-- refuses to coalesce mixed types
+SELECT coalesce(m.distinct_id::VARCHAR, e.user_id::VARCHAR, e.device_id::VARCHAR) AS uid,
+       e.time::TIMESTAMP AS t,
+       e.*
+FROM read_json_auto('data/verify-ai-platform-EVENTS*.json', sample_size=-1, union_by_name=true) e
+LEFT JOIN device_map m ON e.device_id = m.device_id;
+
+-- H3/H7 four-cell cohort: agentic = 3+ tool use calls AND 3+ multi-turn
+-- api calls; batch = any batch job submitted. Filters (H4/H8) run before
+-- the cohort mutators, so output-side classification reproduces the
+-- hook's cohorts 1:1.
+CREATE OR REPLACE VIEW cells AS
+WITH coh AS (SELECT e.uid,
+  (count(*) FILTER (WHERE e.event = 'tool use call') >= 3
+   AND count(*) FILTER (WHERE e.event = 'api call' AND e.multi_turn = true) >= 3) AS agentic,
+  bool_or(e.event = 'batch job submitted') AS batch
+  FROM ev e GROUP BY 1)
+SELECT uid, CASE WHEN agentic AND batch THEN 'both' WHEN agentic THEN 'agentic'
+  WHEN batch THEN 'batch' ELSE 'neither' END AS cell FROM coh;
+
+
+-- ── H1-prompt-caching ───────────────────────────────────────
+-- ~25% of users flip cache_enabled=true ~30% into their stream; cached
+-- api calls carry cost_usd × 0.3.
+SELECT CASE WHEN cache_enabled = true THEN 'cached' ELSE 'uncached' END AS grp,
+  count(*) AS calls, round(avg(cost_usd), 4) AS avg_cost
+FROM ev WHERE event = 'api call' GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1;
+
+
+-- ── H2-model-migration ──────────────────────────────────────
+-- opus-4-7 releases day 60 (2026-03-02): 35% of post-release
+-- Build/Enterprise api calls migrate at 1.5x tokens. Purity is exact —
+-- the hook scrubs engine-sampled opus-4-7 back to the pre-release mix.
+SELECT
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE model = 'opus-4-7' AND (t < TIMESTAMP '2026-03-02' OR api_tier = 'Free' OR event <> 'api call')) AS impure_rows,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE model = 'opus-4-7') AS opus_calls,
+  round(count(*) FILTER (WHERE model = 'opus-4-7' AND event = 'api call' AND api_tier IN ('Build', 'Enterprise') AND t >= TIMESTAMP '2026-03-02')::DOUBLE
+        / nullif(count(*) FILTER (WHERE event = 'api call' AND api_tier IN ('Build', 'Enterprise') AND t >= TIMESTAMP '2026-03-02'), 0), 4) AS post_paid_share
+FROM ev WHERE model IS NOT NULL;
+
+-- tokens 1.5x on neither-cell users (H3's 8x / H7's 2x excluded by cell)
+SELECT CASE WHEN e.model = 'opus-4-7' THEN 'opus' ELSE 'other' END AS grp,
+  count(*) AS calls, round(avg(e.tokens_used), 0) AS avg_tokens
+FROM ev e JOIN cells c ON c.uid = e.uid AND c.cell = 'neither'
+WHERE e.event = 'api call' AND e.api_tier IN ('Build', 'Enterprise')
+  AND e.t >= TIMESTAMP '2026-03-02'
+GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1;
+
+
+-- ── H3-agentic-power-users / H7-batch-discount ──────────────
+-- Four-cell token design: neither 1x / agentic 8x / batch 2x / both 16x.
+-- Agentic clones stamp multi_turn=true → agentic mt_share ≈ 0.75
+-- ((0.25n + 2n) / 3n against the declared 1-in-4 mix).
+SELECT c.cell, count(DISTINCT e.uid) AS users, count(*) AS calls,
+  round(avg(e.tokens_used), 0) AS avg_tokens,
+  round(count(*) FILTER (WHERE e.multi_turn = true)::DOUBLE / count(*), 4) AS mt_share
+FROM cells c JOIN ev e ON e.uid = c.uid
+WHERE e.event = 'api call' GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY avg_tokens;
+
+-- H7: cost_per_token × 0.5 for batch users (no other hook touches it)
+SELECT CASE WHEN c.cell IN ('batch', 'both') THEN 'batch' ELSE 'rest' END AS grp,
+  count(*) AS calls, round(avg(e.cost_per_token), 6) AS avg_cpt
+FROM cells c JOIN ev e ON e.uid = c.uid
+WHERE e.event = 'api call' GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1;
+
+
+-- ── H4-rate-limit-churn ─────────────────────────────────────
+-- 60% of users with 2+ rate limit errors in week 1 lose ALL post-week-1
+-- events (per-user cliff). Signal: zero-post-week-1 share, flagged vs
+-- rest — the DIFFERENCE cancels the natural-quiet baseline. Eligibility:
+-- t0 ≤ datasetEnd − 21d (≥14d of post-week-1 runway).
+WITH t0 AS (SELECT uid, min(t) AS t0 FROM ev GROUP BY 1),
+rl AS (SELECT e.uid FROM ev e JOIN t0 ON t0.uid = e.uid
+  WHERE e.event = 'rate limit error' AND e.t < t0.t0 + INTERVAL 7 DAY
+  GROUP BY 1 HAVING count(*) >= 2),
+per AS (SELECT t0.uid, (t0.uid IN (SELECT uid FROM rl)) AS flagged,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE e.t > t0.t0 + INTERVAL 7 DAY) AS post_ct
+  FROM t0 JOIN ev e ON e.uid = t0.uid
+  WHERE t0.t0 <= TIMESTAMP '2026-04-10 23:59:59' GROUP BY 1, 2)
+SELECT CASE WHEN flagged THEN 'flagged' ELSE 'rest' END AS grp,
+  count(*) AS users,
+  round(count(*) FILTER (WHERE post_ct = 0)::DOUBLE / count(*), 4) AS zero_post_share
+FROM per GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1;
+
+
+-- ── H5-tier-context-window ──────────────────────────────────
+-- input_tokens × 1/2/4 by tier; context_window pinned to the tier
+-- constant (200K / 1M / 2M) on every api call — min = max proves it.
+SELECT api_tier, count(*) AS calls,
+  round(avg(input_tokens), 0) AS avg_input,
+  min(context_window) AS min_cw, max(context_window) AS max_cw
+FROM ev WHERE event = 'api call' GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY avg_input;
+
+
+-- ── H6-outage-day ───────────────────────────────────────────
+-- days 40-41 (2026-02-10 → 2026-02-12): 40% of api calls flagged
+-- is_error + 3x latency. is_error declares [false] → zero errors outside
+-- the window by schema.
+SELECT
+  CASE WHEN t >= TIMESTAMP '2026-02-10' AND t < TIMESTAMP '2026-02-12' THEN 'outage' ELSE 'normal' END AS bucket,
+  count(*) AS calls,
+  round(count(*) FILTER (WHERE is_error = true)::DOUBLE / count(*), 4) AS error_share,
+  round(avg(latency_ms), 0) AS avg_latency
+FROM ev WHERE event = 'api call' GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1;
+
+
+-- ── H8-eval-retention ───────────────────────────────────────
+-- users without an eval job in week 1 keep 25% of post-day-30 events.
+-- Ratio-of-ratios (noneval post/pre vs eval post/pre) cancels window
+-- lengths and the growth soup.
+WITH t0 AS (SELECT uid, min(t) AS t0 FROM ev GROUP BY 1),
+ev_users AS (SELECT e.uid FROM ev e JOIN t0 ON t0.uid = e.uid
+  WHERE e.event = 'eval job' AND e.t < t0.t0 + INTERVAL 7 DAY GROUP BY 1),
+per AS (SELECT t0.uid, (t0.uid IN (SELECT uid FROM ev_users)) AS eval_user,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE e.t <= t0.t0 + INTERVAL 30 DAY) AS pre_ct,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE e.t > t0.t0 + INTERVAL 30 DAY) AS post_ct
+  FROM t0 JOIN ev e ON e.uid = t0.uid GROUP BY 1, 2)
+SELECT CASE WHEN eval_user THEN 'eval' ELSE 'noneval' END AS grp,
+  count(*) AS users, round(avg(pre_ct), 1) AS avg_pre, round(avg(post_ct), 1) AS avg_post,
+  round(avg(post_ct) / nullif(avg(pre_ct), 0), 4) AS post_pre
+FROM per GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1;
+
+
+-- ── H9-api-to-eval-ttc ──────────────────────────────────────
+-- funnel-post scales API-to-Eval step gaps: Enterprise × 0.5, Free × 2.0.
+-- CAUTION: this nearest-preceding-pair SQL is shown for inspection only —
+-- it is censored by its lookback window (stretched Free pairs fall out and
+-- organic events intercept), which can INVERT the direction. The story
+-- asserts through the Mixpanel-aligned funnel emulator at a 336h window
+-- (= 2.0 × the funnel's 168h generative window, covering the stretched
+-- support); trust the story verdict, not this query's ratio.
+WITH ej AS (SELECT uid, t, api_tier FROM ev WHERE event = 'eval job'),
+gap AS (SELECT ej.uid, ej.api_tier, epoch(ej.t - max(tc.t)) / 3600.0 AS gap_h
+  FROM ej JOIN ev tc ON tc.uid = ej.uid AND tc.event = 'tool use call'
+    AND tc.t < ej.t AND tc.t >= ej.t - INTERVAL 336 HOUR
+  GROUP BY ej.uid, ej.api_tier, ej.t)
+SELECT api_tier, count(*) AS pairs, count(DISTINCT uid) AS users,
+  round(median(gap_h), 1) AS med_gap_h
+FROM gap GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY med_gap_h;
+
+
+-- ── H10-docs-magic-number ───────────────────────────────────
+-- docs searched strictly between earliest org-created and earliest
+-- billing payment: 1-2 (sweet) → amount_usd × 1.35 on ALL billing
+-- payments; 3+ (over) → × 0.75. Both branches amount-only (iid draw,
+-- selection-free); median ratios vs the untouched zero-docs cohort read
+-- the knobs directly.
+WITH org AS (SELECT uid, min(t) AS org_t FROM ev WHERE event = 'organization created' GROUP BY 1),
+bill AS (SELECT uid, min(t) AS bill_t FROM ev WHERE event = 'billing payment' GROUP BY 1),
+docs AS (SELECT o.uid, count(e.uid) AS docs_ct
+  FROM org o JOIN bill b ON b.uid = o.uid
+  LEFT JOIN ev e ON e.uid = o.uid AND e.event = 'docs searched' AND e.t > o.org_t AND e.t < b.bill_t
+  GROUP BY 1, o.org_t, b.bill_t),
+dcoh AS (SELECT uid, CASE WHEN docs_ct BETWEEN 1 AND 2 THEN 'sweet'
+  WHEN docs_ct >= 3 THEN 'over' ELSE 'zero' END AS grp FROM docs)
+SELECT d.grp, count(DISTINCT d.uid) AS users, count(*) AS payments,
+  round(median(e.amount_usd), 0) AS med_amount
+FROM dcoh d JOIN ev e ON e.uid = d.uid AND e.event = 'billing payment'
+GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY med_amount;

package/dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.verify.mjs

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+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * ai-platform.verify.mjs — thin wrapper around the story runner.
+ *
+ * All verification logic lives in the `stories` export of ./ai-platform.js;
+ * this script just streams the shards and delegates. It is equivalent to:
+ *
+ *   node scripts/verify-stories.mjs dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.js --data-prefix verify-ai-platform
+ *
+ * Generate first:
+ *   node scripts/verify-runner.mjs dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.js verify-ai-platform
+ * Run:
+ *   node dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.verify.mjs [prefix]   # default verify-ai-platform
+ */
+import fs from 'node:fs';
+import path from 'node:path';
+import readline from 'node:readline';
+import { execFile } from 'node:child_process';
+import { promisify } from 'node:util';
+import { buildIdentityMap, evaluateStories, VERDICT_RANK } from '@ak--47/dungeon-master/verify';
+import config, { stories } from './ai-platform.js';
+
+const PREFIX = process.argv[2] || 'verify-ai-platform';
+const prefixPath = path.join('data', PREFIX);
+
+async function loadShards(suffix) {
+	// streaming load: full-fidelity EVENTS shards exceed the readFileSync cap
+	const dir = path.dirname(prefixPath), base = path.basename(prefixPath);
+	const out = [];
+	if (!fs.existsSync(dir)) return out;
+	for (const f of fs.readdirSync(dir).filter(f => f.startsWith(`${base}-${suffix}`) && f.endsWith('.json')).sort()) {
+		const rl = readline.createInterface({ input: fs.createReadStream(path.join(dir, f)), crlfDelay: Infinity });
+		for await (const line of rl) {
+			if (line.trim()) out.push(JSON.parse(line));
+		}
+	}
+	return out;
+}
+
+const events = await loadShards('EVENTS');
+const profiles = await loadShards('USERS');
+if (!events.length) {
+	console.error(`no shards at ${prefixPath}-EVENTS*.json — run: node scripts/verify-runner.mjs dungeons/vertical/ai-platform/ai-platform.js ${PREFIX}`);
+	process.exit(1);
+}
+console.log(`ai-platform — events=${events.length} users=${profiles.length} (${prefixPath})`);
+
+const execFileP = promisify(execFile);
+const runSql = async (sql) => {
+	const { stdout } = await execFileP('duckdb', ['-json', '-c', sql.replaceAll('{{PREFIX}}', prefixPath)], { maxBuffer: 64 * 1024 * 1024 });
+	return stdout.trim() ? JSON.parse(stdout) : [];
+};
+
+// funnels passed raw (unvalidated) — the H9 story carries its own explicit
+// 336-hour conversion window (2x the generative window, covering the
+// stretched support), so no funnel-default threading is needed
+const results = await evaluateStories(stories, events, {
+	profiles,
+	funnels: config.funnels,
+	identityMap: buildIdentityMap(profiles),
+	runSql,
+});
+
+let worst = 'NAILED';
+for (const r of results) {
+	console.log(`${r.verdict.padEnd(7)} ${r.id}`);
+	for (const a of r.assertions) console.log(`        ${a.verdict.padEnd(7)} ${a.detail}`);
+	if (VERDICT_RANK[r.verdict] < VERDICT_RANK[worst]) worst = r.verdict;
+}
+console.log(`\nworst verdict: ${worst}`);
+process.exit(VERDICT_RANK[worst] >= VERDICT_RANK.STRONG ? 0 : 1);