@ak--47/dungeon-master 1.3.0 → 1.4.0

package/dungeons/vertical/marketplace.js

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 // ── TWEAK THESE ──
 const SEED = "dm4-marketplace";
-const num_days = 100;
-const num_users = 5_000;
+const num_days = 120;
+const num_users = 10_000;
 const avg_events_per_user_per_day = 1.2;
 let token = "your-mixpanel-token";
 
@@ -16,9 +16,6 @@ import * as v from "ak-tools";
 
 dayjs.extend(utc);
 const chance = u.initChance(SEED);
-const NOW = dayjs();
-const DATASET_START = NOW.subtract(num_days, "days");
-
 /** @typedef  {import("../../types").Dungeon} Config */
 
 // Generate consistent seller store and listing IDs at module level
@@ -56,33 +53,33 @@ const listingIds = v.range(1, 500).map(() => `LST_${v.uid(8)}`);
 
 /**
  * ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
- * ANALYTICS HOOKS (8 hooks)
+ * ANALYTICS HOOKS (10 hooks)
+ *
+ * NOTE: All cohort effects are HIDDEN — no flag stamping. Discoverable via
+ * raw-prop breakdowns (segment, day, category) or behavioral cohorts.
+ *
+ * Adds 9. BROWSE TO PURCHASE TIME-TO-CONVERT and 10. MESSAGE-COUNT MAGIC
+ * NUMBER on top of original 8.
  * ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
  *
  * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
- * 1. FEE CHANGE IMPACT (event hook)
+ * 1. FEE CHANGE IMPACT (everything hook)
  * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
  *
  * PATTERN: After day 45 (permanent marketplace fee increase), all
  * "listing created" events get listing_fee multiplied by 1.3x.
- * Simulates the revenue impact of a platform fee adjustment.
+ * Simulates the revenue impact of a platform fee adjustment. No flag —
+ * discover via line chart of avg listing_fee over time.
  *
  * HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
  *
- *   Report 1: Listing Fee Before vs After Fee Change
+ *   Report 1: Listing Fee Over Time
  *   • Report type: Insights
  *   • Event: "listing created"
  *   • Measure: Average of "listing_fee"
  *   • Line chart by week
  *   • Expected: Clear step-up around day 45 from ~$15 avg to ~$20 avg
  *
- *   Report 2: Fee Change Flag Distribution
- *   • Report type: Insights
- *   • Event: "listing created"
- *   • Measure: Total
- *   • Breakdown: "fee_change"
- *   • Expected: "increased" appears only after day 45
- *
  * REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Marketplace platforms periodically adjust
  * commission/listing fees, impacting seller economics and behavior.
  *
@@ -238,30 +235,84 @@ const listingIds = v.range(1, 500).map(() => `LST_${v.uid(8)}`);
  * REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Returning buyers have established trust
  * and familiarity with the platform, converting at higher rates.
  *
+ * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * 9. BROWSE TO PURCHASE TIME-TO-CONVERT (funnel-post)
+ *
+ * PATTERN: Power_seller and frequent_buyer users complete the
+ * Browse to Purchase funnel 1.4x faster (factor 0.71); window_shopper
+ * 1.4x slower (factor 1.4).
+ *
+ * HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
+ *
+ *   Report 1: Browse to Purchase Median Time-to-Convert by Segment
+ *   - Funnels > "item searched" -> "item viewed" -> "add to cart" -> "purchase completed"
+ *   - Measure: Median time to convert
+ *   - Breakdown: segment
+ *   - Expected: power/frequent ~ 0.71x; window ~ 1.4x
+ *
+ *   NOTE (funnel-post measurement): visible only via Mixpanel funnel
+ *   median TTC. Cross-event MIN→MIN SQL queries on raw events do NOT
+ *   show this — funnel-post adjusts gaps within funnel instances, not
+ *   across the user's full event history.
+ *
+ * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * 10. MESSAGE-COUNT MAGIC NUMBER (in-funnel, everything)
+ *
+ * PATTERN: Sweet 2-5 message-sent events between item-viewed and
+ * offer-received → +35% on offer_amount of offer-received events.
+ * Over 6+ → drop 25% of purchase-completed events (haggling deadlock).
+ * No flag.
+ *
+ * HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
+ *
+ *   Report 1: Avg Offer Amount by Message Bucket
+ *   - Cohort A: users with 2-5 messages between item-viewed and offer-received
+ *   - Cohort B: users with 0-1
+ *   - Event: "offer received"
+ *   - Measure: Average of "offer_amount"
+ *   - Expected: A ~ 1.35x B
+ *
+ *   Report 2: Purchase Rate on Heavy Messengers
+ *   - Cohort C: users with >= 6 messages
+ *   - Cohort A: users with 2-5
+ *   - Event: "purchase completed"
+ *   - Measure: Total per user
+ *   - Expected: C ~ 25% fewer purchases per user
+ *
+ * REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: A few quick clarifying messages close deals;
+ * extended haggling kills conversion.
+ *
  * ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
  * EXPECTED METRICS SUMMARY
  * ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
  *
- * Hook                        | Metric              | Baseline | Effect  | Ratio
- * ────────────────────────────|─────────────────────|──────────|─────────|──────
- * Fee Change Impact           | listing_fee         | $15      | $20     | 1.3x
- * Weekend Shopping Surge      | total_amount        | $60      | $72     | 1.2x
- * Seller Success → Trust      | purchases/user      | 3        | 6       | 2x
- * Electronics Category Lift   | electronics purch.  | baseline | 1.5x   | 1.5x
- * Response Time → Conversion  | offer_accepted/user | 1        | 2       | 2x
- * New Seller Churn            | events post-day-14  | 100%     | 60%     | 0.6x
- * Power Seller Profiles       | total_transactions  | 0        | 100-500 | --
- * Frequent Buyer Funnel       | funnel conversion   | 30%      | 39%     | 1.3x
+ * Hook                        | Metric              | Baseline | Effect    | Ratio
+ * ----------------------------|---------------------|----------|-----------|------
+ * Fee Change Impact           | listing_fee post-D45| 1x       | 1.3x      | 1.3x
+ * Weekend Shopping Surge      | total_amount Sat/Sun| 1x       | 1.2x      | 1.2x
+ * Seller Success → Trust      | purchases/user      | 1x       | 2x        | 2x
+ * Electronics Category Lift   | electronics purch.  | 1x       | 1.5x      | 1.5x
+ * Response Time → Conversion  | offer_accepted/user | 1x       | 2x        | 2x
+ * New Seller Churn            | events post-D14     | 1x       | 0.6x      | -40%
+ * Power Seller Profiles       | total_transactions  | 0        | 100-500   | --
+ * Frequent Buyer Funnel       | funnel conversion   | 30%      | 39%       | 1.3x
+ * Browse to Purchase T2C      | median min by segment| 1x      | 0.71/1.4x | ~ 2x range
+ * Message Magic Number        | sweet offer_amount  | 1x       | 1.35x     | 1.35x
+ * Message Magic Number        | over purchases/user | 1x       | 0.75x     | -25%
  */
 
 /** @type {Config} */
 const config = {
+	version: 2,
 	token,
 	seed: SEED,
-	numDays: num_days,
+	datasetStart: "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+	datasetEnd: "2026-05-01T23:59:59Z",
+	// numDays: num_days,
 	avgEventsPerUserPerDay: avg_events_per_user_per_day,
 	numUsers: num_users,
-	hasAnonIds: false,
+	hasAnonIds: true,
+	avgDevicePerUser: 2,
 	hasSessionIds: true,
 	format: "json",
 	gzip: true,
@@ -294,6 +345,7 @@ const config = {
 			event: "account created",
 			weight: 1,
 			isFirstEvent: true,
+			isAuthEvent: true,
 			properties: {
 				signup_source: ["organic", "google_shopping", "tiktok", "seller_referral", "email_campaign", "word_of_mouth"],
 			},
@@ -336,7 +388,6 @@ const config = {
 				item_count: u.weighNumRange(1, 5, 0.3),
 				payment_method: ["credit_card", "credit_card", "paypal", "apple_pay", "debit"],
 				shipping_method: ["standard", "standard", "express", "pickup"],
-				is_whale_purchase: [false],
 			},
 		},
 		{
@@ -348,7 +399,6 @@ const config = {
 				asking_price: u.weighNumRange(5, 500, 0.3, 50),
 				condition: ["new", "new", "like_new", "good", "fair"],
 				listing_fee: u.weighNumRange(5, 30, 0.5, 15),
-				fee_change: ["none"],
 			},
 		},
 		{
@@ -728,31 +778,34 @@ const config = {
 			}
 		}
 
-		// ── HOOK 8: FREQUENT BUYER FUNNEL LIFT (funnel-pre) ──
-		// (conversionRate filtering moved to everything hook)
-		if (type === "funnel-pre") {
-			// no-op: conversion filtering handled via event dropping in everything hook
-		}
-
-		// ── HOOK 1: FEE CHANGE IMPACT (event) ────────────────
-		// Listings after day 45 get 1.3x higher listing_fee.
-		if (type === "event") {
-			const FEE_CHANGE_DAY = DATASET_START.add(45, "days");
-			if (record.event === "listing created") {
-				const eventTime = dayjs(record.time);
-				if (eventTime.isAfter(FEE_CHANGE_DAY)) {
-					record.listing_fee = Math.floor((record.listing_fee || 15) * 1.3);
-					record.fee_change = "increased";
+		// HOOK 9 (T2C): BROWSE TO PURCHASE TIME-TO-CONVERT (funnel-post)
+		// Power_seller users complete Browse to Purchase funnel 1.4x faster
+		// (factor 0.71); window_shopper 1.4x slower (factor 1.4).
+		if (type === "funnel-post") {
+			const segment = meta?.profile?.segment;
+			if (Array.isArray(record) && record.length > 1) {
+				const factor = (
+					segment === "power_seller" || segment === "frequent_buyer" ? 0.71 :
+					segment === "window_shopper" ? 1.4 :
+					1.0
+				);
+				if (factor !== 1.0) {
+					for (let i = 1; i < record.length; i++) {
+						const prev = dayjs(record[i - 1].time);
+						const newGap = Math.round(dayjs(record[i].time).diff(prev) * factor);
+						record[i].time = prev.add(newGap, "milliseconds").toISOString();
+					}
 				}
 			}
-
-			// ── HOOK 2: WEEKEND SHOPPING SURGE ───────────────
-			// Moved to the everything hook (after purchase cloning)
-			// so the 1.2x boost applies to both original AND cloned purchases.
 		}
 
+		// HOOK 1: FEE CHANGE IMPACT — moved to everything hook below.
+		// (event hook fires before bunchIntoSessions reshuffles timestamps)
+
 		// ── EVERYTHING HOOKS ─────────────────────────────────
 		if (type === "everything") {
+			const datasetStart = dayjs.unix(meta.datasetStart);
+			const FEE_CHANGE_DAY = datasetStart.add(45, "days");
 			let events = record;
 			if (!events.length) return record;
 
@@ -767,6 +820,14 @@ const config = {
 				});
 			}
 
+			// HOOK 1: FEE CHANGE IMPACT — listings after d45 get listing_fee 1.3x.
+			// In everything hook so timestamp comparison sees post-bunchIntoSessions times.
+			events.forEach(e => {
+				if (e.event === "listing created" && dayjs(e.time).isAfter(FEE_CHANGE_DAY)) {
+					e.listing_fee = Math.floor((e.listing_fee || 15) * 1.3);
+				}
+			});
+
 			// ── HOOK 8: FREQUENT BUYER CONVERSION FILTER ────
 			// Non-frequent-buyer users drop ~25% of "purchase completed"
 			// (last step of Browse to Purchase funnel) to simulate lower conversion.
@@ -824,55 +885,89 @@ const config = {
 			}
 
 			// ── HOOK 5: RESPONSE TIME → CONVERSION ───────────
-			// Sellers with avg response_time < 12 hours get more offer_accepted.
-			// (response_time_hours centers around ~6h via weighNumRange, so a
-			// threshold of 2h was too tight — almost no users qualified.)
+			// Users with low avg response_time on messages get extra
+			// offer_accepted clones; slow responders lose half their accepts.
 			const messages = events.filter(e => e.event === "message sent" && e.response_time_hours);
 			if (messages.length > 0) {
 				const avgResponseTime = messages.reduce((sum, m) => sum + m.response_time_hours, 0) / messages.length;
-				if (avgResponseTime < 12) {
-					const templateOffer = events.find(e => e.event === "offer accepted");
-					if (templateOffer) {
-						const offers = events.filter(e => e.event === "offer received");
-						offers.forEach(offer => {
-							if (chance.bool({ likelihood: 50 })) {
-								events.push({
-									...templateOffer,
-									time: dayjs(offer.time).add(chance.integer({ min: 1, max: 4 }), "hours").toISOString(),
-									user_id: offer.user_id,
-									response_time_hours: chance.floating({ min: 0.1, max: 2, fixed: 1 }),
-								});
-							}
+				const templateOffer = events.find(e => e.event === "offer accepted");
+				if (avgResponseTime <= 11 && templateOffer) {
+					// Fast responders: clone every offer_received into an offer_accepted
+					const offers = events.filter(e => e.event === "offer received");
+					offers.forEach(offer => {
+						events.push({
+							...templateOffer,
+							time: dayjs(offer.time).add(chance.integer({ min: 1, max: 4 }), "hours").toISOString(),
+							user_id: offer.user_id,
+							response_time_hours: chance.floating({ min: 0.1, max: 2, fixed: 1 }),
 						});
+					});
+				} else if (avgResponseTime >= 25 && templateOffer) {
+					// Slow responders: drop half of offer_accepted events
+					for (let i = events.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+						if (events[i].event === "offer accepted" && chance.bool({ likelihood: 50 })) {
+							events.splice(i, 1);
+						}
 					}
 				}
 			}
 
 			// ── HOOK 6: NEW SELLER CHURN ─────────────────────
-			// New sellers with <10 events lose 40% of events after day 14.
-			if (profile && profile.segment === "new_seller" && events.length < 10) {
-				const DAY_14 = DATASET_START.add(14, "days");
-				for (let i = events.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
-					const eventTime = dayjs(events[i].time);
-					if (eventTime.isAfter(DAY_14) && chance.bool({ likelihood: 40 })) {
-						events.splice(i, 1);
+			// New sellers lose 50% of events after their first 14 days.
+			// Uses user's first event as anchor (not dataset start).
+			if (profile && profile.segment === "new_seller") {
+				const firstEventTime = events.length > 0 ? dayjs(events[0].time) : null;
+				if (firstEventTime) {
+					const userDay14 = firstEventTime.add(14, "days");
+					for (let i = events.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+						if (dayjs(events[i].time).isAfter(userDay14) && chance.bool({ likelihood: 50 })) {
+							events.splice(i, 1);
+						}
 					}
 				}
 			}
 
-			// ── HOOK 2: WEEKEND SHOPPING SURGE (everything) ─────
-			// Applied AFTER all purchase cloning (Hooks 3, 4) so the
-			// 1.2x boost hits both original and injected purchases.
+			// HOOK 2: WEEKEND SHOPPING SURGE — Sat/Sun purchases get
+			// total_amount 1.2x. Mutates raw prop. No flag.
 			events.forEach(e => {
 				if (e.event === "purchase completed") {
 					const dow = new Date(e.time).getUTCDay();
-					// Saturday=6, Sunday=0
 					if (dow === 0 || dow === 6) {
 						e.total_amount = Math.floor((e.total_amount || 60) * 1.2);
 					}
 				}
 			});
 
+			// HOOK 10: MESSAGE-COUNT MAGIC NUMBER (in-funnel, no flags)
+			// Sweet 2-5 message-sent events between item-viewed and
+			// offer-received → +35% on offer-received offer_amount/asking_price.
+			// Over 6+ → drop 25% of purchase-completed events (over-message
+			// signals haggling deadlock).
+			const itemViewed = events.find(e => e.event === "item viewed");
+			const offerReceived = events.find(e => e.event === "offer received");
+			if (itemViewed && offerReceived) {
+				const aTime = dayjs(itemViewed.time);
+				const bTime = dayjs(offerReceived.time);
+				const msgBetween = events.filter(e =>
+					e.event === "message sent" &&
+					dayjs(e.time).isAfter(aTime) &&
+					dayjs(e.time).isBefore(bTime)
+				).length;
+				if (msgBetween >= 2 && msgBetween <= 5) {
+					events.forEach(e => {
+						if (e.event === "offer received" && typeof e.offer_amount === "number") {
+							e.offer_amount = Math.round(e.offer_amount * 1.35);
+						}
+					});
+				} else if (msgBetween >= 6) {
+					for (let i = events.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+						if (events[i].event === "purchase completed" && chance.bool({ likelihood: 25 })) {
+							events.splice(i, 1);
+						}
+					}
+				}
+			}
+
 			return record;
 		}