@ak--47/dungeon-master 1.3.0 → 1.4.0

package/dungeons/vertical/fitness.js

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 // ── TWEAK THESE ──
 const SEED = "dm4-fitness";
-const num_days = 100;
-const num_users = 5_000;
+const num_days = 120;
+const num_users = 10_000;
 const avg_events_per_user_per_day = 1.2;
 let token = "your-mixpanel-token";
 
@@ -15,9 +15,6 @@ import * as u from "../../lib/utils/utils.js";
 
 dayjs.extend(utc);
 const chance = u.initChance(SEED);
-const NOW = dayjs();
-const DATASET_START = NOW.subtract(num_days, "days");
-
 /** @typedef  {import("../../types").Dungeon} Config */
 
 /**
@@ -28,7 +25,7 @@ const DATASET_START = NOW.subtract(num_days, "days");
  * FitQuest — a fitness & wellness app for workout tracking, meal
  * planning, social fitness challenges, and AI coaching.
  *
- * - 5,000 users over 100 days, ~600K events
+ * - 5,000 users over 120 days, ~600K events
  * - 5 personas: athlete (10%), casual_exerciser (40%),
  *   new_year_resolver (25%), social_motivator (15%), coach (10%)
  * - Core loop: sign up → plan workout → complete workout → track progress
@@ -50,32 +47,31 @@ const DATASET_START = NOW.subtract(num_days, "days");
 
 /**
  * ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
- * ANALYTICS HOOKS (8 hooks)
+ * ANALYTICS HOOKS (10 hooks)
  * ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
  *
+ * NOTE: All cohort effects are HIDDEN — no flag stamping. Discoverable
+ * via raw-prop breakdowns (HOD, day, segment) or behavioral cohorts.
+ *
  * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
- * 1. MORNING WORKOUT BOOST (event hook)
+ * 1. MORNING WORKOUT BOOST (everything)
  * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
  *
- * PATTERN: Workouts completed between 5AM-9AM get 1.3x
- * calories_burned. Simulates the metabolic boost from fasted
- * morning exercise.
+ * PATTERN: Workouts in 5-9 UTC get calories_burned 1.3x. Mutates
+ * raw prop. No flag.
  *
  * HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
  *
- *   Report 1: Morning vs Non-Morning Calorie Burn
- *   • Report type: Insights
- *   • Event: "workout completed"
- *   • Measure: Average of "calories_burned"
- *   • Breakdown: "is_morning_workout"
- *   • Expected: is_morning_workout=true should show ~1.3x avg
- *     calories vs false (true ≈ 390, false ≈ 300)
+ *   Report 1: Avg Calories Burned by Hour of Day
+ *   - Event: "workout completed"
+ *   - Measure: Average of "calories_burned"
+ *   - Breakdown: hour of day
+ *   - Expected: 5-9 hours show ~ 1.3x baseline
  *
- * REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Fitness apps promote morning workouts
- * as more effective for fat loss, driving engagement.
+ * REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Morning workouts get a metabolic boost.
  *
  * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
- * 2. POST-LAUNCH AI COACHING LIFT (event hook)
+ * 2. POST-LAUNCH AI COACHING LIFT (everything hook)
  * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
  *
  * PATTERN: After day 35 (ai_coach feature launch), workouts
@@ -244,30 +240,84 @@ const DATASET_START = NOW.subtract(num_days, "days");
  * REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Annual gym memberships have higher
  * utilization — sunk cost + commitment drives consistency.
  *
+ * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * 9. WORKOUT LOOP TIME-TO-CONVERT (funnel-post)
+ * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ *
+ * PATTERN: Annual + family subscribers complete the Workout Loop
+ * funnel 1.3x faster (factor 0.77); Free users 1.25x slower (factor 1.25).
+ *
+ * HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
+ *
+ *   Report 1: Workout Loop Median Time-to-Convert by Subscription
+ *   - Funnels > "workout planned" -> "workout completed" -> "progress checked"
+ *   - Measure: Median time to convert
+ *   - Breakdown: subscription_plan
+ *   - Expected: annual ~ 0.77x; free ~ 1.25x
+ *
+ *   NOTE (funnel-post measurement): visible only via Mixpanel funnel
+ *   median TTC. Cross-event MIN→MIN SQL queries on raw events do NOT
+ *   show this — funnel-post adjusts gaps within funnel instances, not
+ *   across the user's full event history.
+ *
+ * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * 10. WORKOUT-COUNT MAGIC NUMBER (everything)
+ * ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ *
+ * PATTERN: Sweet 12-20 workouts/user → +35% on workout
+ * duration_minutes (peak progression). Over 21+ → drop 30% of
+ * post-day-30 events (overtraining churn). No flag.
+ *
+ * HOW TO FIND IT IN MIXPANEL:
+ *
+ *   Report 1: Avg Workout Duration by Workout-Count Bucket
+ *   - Cohort A: users with 12-20 "workout completed"
+ *   - Cohort B: users with 0-11
+ *   - Event: "workout completed"
+ *   - Measure: Average of "duration_minutes"
+ *   - Expected: A ~ 1.35x B
+ *
+ *   Report 2: D30+ Activity on Heavy Workout Cohort
+ *   - Cohort C: users with >= 21 "workout completed"
+ *   - Cohort A: users with 12-20
+ *   - Event: any event
+ *   - Measure: Total per user, post-day-30
+ *   - Expected: C ~ 30% fewer post-day-30 events per user
+ *
+ * REAL-WORLD ANALOGUE: Sweet-spot training drives progression;
+ * over-training causes injury and burnout.
+ *
  * ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
  * EXPECTED METRICS SUMMARY
  * ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
  *
- * Hook                        | Metric              | Baseline | Effect  | Ratio
- * ────────────────────────────|─────────────────────|──────────|─────────|──────
- * Morning Workout Boost       | calories_burned     | 300      | 390     | 1.3x
- * AI Coaching Lift            | duration_minutes    | 40       | 48      | 1.2x
- * Streak Retention            | achievements/user   | 1        | 2-3     | 2-3x
- * Social Challenge Completion | challenges/user     | 1        | 1.5     | 1.5x
- * Resolver Churn Cliff        | events after day 14 | 100%     | 30%     | 0.3x
- * Coach Session Quality       | satisfaction_score   | 3.0      | 4.3     | 1.4x
- * Coach Profile Enrichment    | total_workouts      | 0        | 350     | N/A
- * Annual Funnel Lift          | funnel conversion   | 45%      | 63%     | 1.4x
+ * Hook                        | Metric              | Baseline | Effect    | Ratio
+ * ----------------------------|---------------------|----------|-----------|------
+ * Morning Workout Boost       | calories_burned 5-9 | 1x       | 1.3x      | 1.3x
+ * AI Coaching Lift            | duration_minutes    | 1x       | 1.2x      | 1.2x
+ * Streak Retention            | achievements/user   | 1x       | 2-3x      | 2-3x
+ * Social Challenge Completion | challenges/user     | 1x       | 1.5x      | 1.5x
+ * Resolver Churn Cliff        | events after day 14 | 1x       | 0.3x      | -70%
+ * Coach Session Quality       | satisfaction_score  | 3.0      | 4.3       | 1.4x
+ * Coach Profile Enrichment    | total_workouts      | 0        | 350       | n/a
+ * Annual Funnel Lift          | funnel conversion   | 45%      | 63%       | 1.4x
+ * Workout Loop T2C            | median min by tier  | 1x       | 0.77/1.25x| ~ 1.6x range
+ * Workout Magic Number        | sweet duration_min  | 1x       | 1.35x     | 1.35x
+ * Workout Magic Number        | over D30+ activity  | 1x       | 0.7x      | -30%
  */
 
 /** @type {Config} */
 const config = {
+	version: 2,
 	token,
 	seed: SEED,
-	numDays: num_days,
+	datasetStart: "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+	datasetEnd: "2026-05-01T23:59:59Z",
+	// numDays: num_days,
 	avgEventsPerUserPerDay: avg_events_per_user_per_day,
 	numUsers: num_users,
-	hasAnonIds: false,
+	hasAnonIds: true,
+	avgDevicePerUser: 3,
 	hasSessionIds: true,
 	format: "json",
 	gzip: true,
@@ -300,6 +350,7 @@ const config = {
 			event: "account created",
 			weight: 1,
 			isFirstEvent: true,
+			isAuthEvent: true,
 			properties: {
 				referral_source: ["organic", "friend_invite", "app_store", "social_media", "search"],
 			},
@@ -311,7 +362,6 @@ const config = {
 				duration_minutes: u.weighNumRange(10, 90, 0.5, 40),
 				calories_burned: u.weighNumRange(50, 800, 0.4, 300),
 				heart_rate_avg: u.weighNumRange(80, 185, 0.5, 130),
-				is_morning_workout: [false],
 				satisfaction_score: u.weighNumRange(1, 5, 0.7, 3),
 				coaching_mode: ["self_guided"],
 				challenge_mode: ["solo"],
@@ -508,6 +558,7 @@ const config = {
 	superProps: {
 		Platform: ["ios", "ios", "android"],
 		workout_type: ["strength", "cardio", "yoga", "hiit", "running", "cycling"],
+		subscription_tier: ["free"],
 	},
 
 	// ── UserProps ──────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -520,6 +571,7 @@ const config = {
 		goal: ["weight_loss", "muscle_gain", "endurance", "flexibility", "general_health"],
 		Platform: ["ios", "ios", "android"],
 		workout_type: ["strength", "cardio", "yoga", "hiit", "running", "cycling"],
+		subscription_tier: ["free"],
 	},
 
 	// ── Personas ──────────────────────────────────
@@ -582,69 +634,6 @@ const config = {
 		},
 	],
 
-	// ── Subscription ──────────────────────────────
-	subscription: {
-		plans: [
-			{ name: "free", price: 0, default: true },
-			{ name: "monthly", price: 12.99, trialDays: 7 },
-			{ name: "annual", price: 99.99 },
-			{ name: "family", price: 149.99 },
-		],
-		lifecycle: {
-			trialToPayRate: 0.30,
-			upgradeRate: 0.08,
-			downgradeRate: 0.03,
-			churnRate: 0.05,
-			winBackRate: 0.10,
-			winBackDelay: 21,
-			paymentFailureRate: 0.02,
-		},
-	},
-
-	// ── Attribution ──────────────────────────────
-	attribution: {
-		model: "last_touch",
-		window: 7,
-		campaigns: [
-			{
-				name: "app_store",
-				source: "apple",
-				medium: "app_store",
-				activeDays: [0, 100],
-				dailyBudget: [200, 600],
-				acquisitionRate: 0.03,
-				userPersonaBias: { athlete: 0.5, coach: 0.3 },
-			},
-			{
-				name: "google_play",
-				source: "google",
-				medium: "app_store",
-				activeDays: [0, 100],
-				dailyBudget: [150, 500],
-				acquisitionRate: 0.02,
-			},
-			{
-				name: "instagram_ads",
-				source: "instagram",
-				medium: "social",
-				activeDays: [5, 90],
-				dailyBudget: [200, 800],
-				acquisitionRate: 0.03,
-				userPersonaBias: { new_year_resolver: 0.5, social_motivator: 0.3 },
-			},
-			{
-				name: "referral_program",
-				source: "referral",
-				medium: "referral",
-				activeDays: [0, 100],
-				dailyBudget: [50, 200],
-				acquisitionRate: 0.02,
-				userPersonaBias: { social_motivator: 0.4 },
-			},
-		],
-		organicRate: 0.30,
-	},
-
 	// ── Engagement Decay ──────────────────────────
 	engagementDecay: {
 		model: "step",
@@ -653,76 +642,57 @@ const config = {
 		reactivationChance: 0.02,
 	},
 
-	// ── Features ──────────────────────────────────
-	features: [
-		{
-			name: "ai_coach",
-			launchDay: 35,
-			adoptionCurve: "fast",
-			property: "coaching_mode",
-			values: ["self_guided", "ai_assisted"],
-			defaultBefore: "self_guided",
-			affectsEvents: ["workout completed", "workout planned"],
-		},
-		{
-			name: "group_challenges",
-			launchDay: 55,
-			adoptionCurve: { k: 0.1, midpoint: 25 },
-			property: "challenge_mode",
-			values: ["solo", "group"],
-			defaultBefore: "solo",
-			affectsEvents: ["challenge joined", "workout completed"],
-		},
-	],
-
 	// ── Hook Function ──────────────────────────────────────
 	hook: function (record, type, meta) {
-		// ── HOOK 7: COACH PROFILE ENRICHMENT (user) ──────────
-		// Coach segment gets boosted total_workouts and streak_days.
+		// HOOK 7: COACH PROFILE ENRICHMENT (user) — coach segment users
+		// get high total_workouts + streak_days.
+		// Also assign subscription_tier by segment (replacing deprecated subscription feature).
 		if (type === "user") {
 			if (record.segment === "coach") {
 				record.total_workouts = chance.integer({ min: 200, max: 500 });
 				record.streak_days = chance.integer({ min: 60, max: 365 });
 			}
-		}
-
-		// ── HOOK 8: ANNUAL SUBSCRIBER WORKOUT FUNNEL LIFT (funnel-pre) ─
-		// (conversionRate filtering moved to everything hook)
-		if (type === "funnel-pre") {
-			// no-op: conversion filtering handled via event dropping in everything hook
-		}
-
-		// ── HOOK 1: MORNING WORKOUT BOOST (event) ────────────
-		// Workouts between 5AM-9AM get 1.3x calories_burned.
-		if (type === "event") {
-			if (record.event === "workout completed") {
-				const hour = dayjs(record.time).hour();
-				if (hour >= 5 && hour < 9) {
-					record.is_morning_workout = true;
-					if (record.calories_burned) {
-						record.calories_burned = Math.floor(record.calories_burned * 1.3);
-					}
-				}
+			// Subscription tier: athletes/coaches → annual/family; social → monthly; casual/resolver → mostly free
+			if (record.segment === "athlete") {
+				record.subscription_tier = chance.pickone(["annual", "annual", "family", "monthly"]);
+			} else if (record.segment === "coach") {
+				record.subscription_tier = chance.pickone(["annual", "family", "family"]);
+			} else if (record.segment === "social") {
+				record.subscription_tier = chance.pickone(["monthly", "monthly", "annual", "free"]);
+			} else if (record.segment === "resolver") {
+				record.subscription_tier = chance.pickone(["free", "free", "free", "monthly"]);
+			} else {
+				record.subscription_tier = chance.pickone(["free", "free", "monthly"]);
 			}
+		}
 
-			// ── HOOK 2: POST-LAUNCH AI COACHING LIFT (event) ────
-			// After day 35, ai_assisted workouts get 1.2x duration.
-			if (record.event === "workout completed" || record.event === "workout planned") {
-				const AI_LAUNCH = DATASET_START.add(35, "days");
-				const eventTime = dayjs(record.time);
-				if (eventTime.isAfter(AI_LAUNCH) && record.coaching_mode === "ai_assisted") {
-					if (record.duration_minutes) {
-						record.duration_minutes = Math.floor(record.duration_minutes * 1.2);
-					}
-					if (record.planned_duration_minutes) {
-						record.planned_duration_minutes = Math.floor(record.planned_duration_minutes * 1.2);
+		// HOOK 9 (T2C): WORKOUT LOOP TIME-TO-CONVERT (funnel-post)
+		// Annual subscribers complete the Workout Loop funnel 1.3x faster
+		// (factor 0.77); Free users 1.25x slower (factor 1.25).
+		if (type === "funnel-post") {
+			const tier = meta?.profile?.subscription_tier;
+			if (Array.isArray(record) && record.length > 1) {
+				const factor = (
+					tier === "annual" || tier === "family" ? 0.77 :
+					tier === "free" ? 1.25 :
+					1.0
+				);
+				if (factor !== 1.0) {
+					for (let i = 1; i < record.length; i++) {
+						const prev = dayjs(record[i - 1].time);
+						const newGap = Math.round(dayjs(record[i].time).diff(prev) * factor);
+						record[i].time = prev.add(newGap, "milliseconds").toISOString();
 					}
 				}
 			}
 		}
 
+		// (HOOK 1 & 2 moved to everything hook — temporal and hour checks
+		// must run after bunchIntoSessions redistributes timestamps)
+
 		// ── EVERYTHING HOOKS ─────────────────────────────────
 		if (type === "everything") {
+			const datasetStart = dayjs.unix(meta.datasetStart);
 			let events = record;
 			if (!events.length) return record;
 
@@ -733,19 +703,64 @@ const config = {
 				events.forEach(e => {
 					if (p.Platform) e.Platform = p.Platform;
 					if (p.workout_type) e.workout_type = p.workout_type;
+					if (p.subscription_tier) e.subscription_tier = p.subscription_tier;
 				});
 			}
 
+			// HOOK 1: MORNING WORKOUT BOOST — 5AM-9AM UTC workouts get
+			// calories_burned 1.3x. No flag — analyst breaks down by HOD.
+			events.forEach(e => {
+				if (e.event === "workout completed") {
+					const hour = new Date(e.time).getUTCHours();
+					if (hour >= 5 && hour < 9 && e.calories_burned) {
+						e.calories_burned = Math.floor(e.calories_burned * 1.3);
+					}
+				}
+			});
+
+			// ── HOOK 2: POST-LAUNCH AI COACHING LIFT ────────────
+			// After day 35, ~40% of workouts switch to ai_assisted coaching,
+			// then ai_assisted workouts get 1.2x duration.
+			// (Replaces deprecated 'features' config; temporal check in everything per L1)
+			const AI_LAUNCH = datasetStart.add(35, "days");
+			events.forEach(e => {
+				if ((e.event === "workout completed" || e.event === "workout planned") &&
+					dayjs(e.time).isAfter(AI_LAUNCH)) {
+					// Adopt ai_assisted for ~40% of post-launch workouts
+					if (chance.bool({ likelihood: 40 })) {
+						e.coaching_mode = "ai_assisted";
+					}
+					// AI-assisted workouts get 1.2x duration
+					if (e.coaching_mode === "ai_assisted") {
+						if (e.duration_minutes) {
+							e.duration_minutes = Math.floor(e.duration_minutes * 1.2);
+						}
+						if (e.planned_duration_minutes) {
+							e.planned_duration_minutes = Math.floor(e.planned_duration_minutes * 1.2);
+						}
+					}
+				}
+			});
+
+			// ── GROUP CHALLENGES ADOPTION ────────────────────
+			// After day 55, ~30% of challenge events switch to group mode.
+			// (Replaces deprecated 'features' config)
+			const GROUP_LAUNCH = datasetStart.add(55, "days");
+			events.forEach(e => {
+				if ((e.event === "challenge joined" || e.event === "workout completed") &&
+					dayjs(e.time).isAfter(GROUP_LAUNCH) &&
+					chance.bool({ likelihood: 30 })) {
+					e.challenge_mode = "group";
+				}
+			});
+
 			// ── HOOK 8: ANNUAL SUBSCRIBER CONVERSION FILTER ─
 			// Free/monthly-tier users drop ~30% of "progress checked"
 			// (last step of Workout Loop funnel) to simulate lower conversion.
 			if (meta && meta.profile) {
 				const tier = meta.profile.subscription_tier;
-				if (tier !== "annual" && tier !== "family") {
-					record = record.filter(e => {
-						if (e.event === "progress checked" && chance.bool({ likelihood: 30 })) return false;
-						return true;
-					});
+				if (tier !== "annual" && tier !== "family" && chance.bool({ likelihood: 30 })) {
+					record = record.filter(e => e.event !== "progress checked");
 					events = record;
 				}
 			}
@@ -780,13 +795,13 @@ const config = {
 			}
 
 			// ── HOOK 4: SOCIAL CHALLENGE COMPLETION ──────────
-			// Users with friend_added events get 1.5x challenge completions.
-			const hasFriends = events.some(e => e.event === "friend added");
-			if (hasFriends) {
+			// Users with >=3 friend_added events get 1.5x challenge completions.
+			const friendCount = events.filter(e => e.event === "friend added").length;
+			if (friendCount >= 3) {
 				const templateChallenge = events.find(e => e.event === "challenge completed");
 				if (templateChallenge) {
 					const challengeCompletions = events.filter(e => e.event === "challenge completed");
-					const extraCount = Math.floor(challengeCompletions.length * 0.5);
+					const extraCount = Math.max(1, Math.floor(challengeCompletions.length * 0.5));
 					for (let i = 0; i < extraCount; i++) {
 						const source = challengeCompletions[i % challengeCompletions.length];
 						events.push({
@@ -801,9 +816,9 @@ const config = {
 			}
 
 			// ── HOOK 5: RESOLVER CHURN CLIFF ─────────────────
-			// Resolver segment users with <8 events lose 70% after day 14.
-			if (meta && meta.profile && meta.profile.segment === "resolver" && events.length < 8) {
-				const CHURN_CLIFF = DATASET_START.add(14, "days");
+			// Resolver segment users with <30 events lose 70% after day 14.
+			if (meta && meta.profile && meta.profile.segment === "resolver" && events.length < 30) {
+				const CHURN_CLIFF = datasetStart.add(14, "days");
 				for (let i = events.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
 					const eventTime = dayjs(events[i].time);
 					if (eventTime.isAfter(CHURN_CLIFF) && chance.bool({ likelihood: 70 })) {
@@ -812,8 +827,7 @@ const config = {
 				}
 			}
 
-			// ── HOOK 6: COACH SESSION QUALITY ────────────────
-			// Users with coach_session events get higher satisfaction.
+			// HOOK 6: COACH SESSION QUALITY — coach-session satisfaction 4-5.
 			const hasCoachSessions = events.some(e => e.event === "coach session");
 			if (hasCoachSessions) {
 				events.forEach(e => {
@@ -823,6 +837,26 @@ const config = {
 				});
 			}
 
+			// HOOK 10: WORKOUT-COUNT MAGIC NUMBER (no flags)
+			// Sweet 12-20 workouts → +35% on workout duration_minutes (peak
+			// progression). Over 21+ → drop 30% of post-day-30 events
+			// (overtraining → churn).
+			const workoutCount = events.filter(e => e.event === "workout completed").length;
+			if (workoutCount >= 12 && workoutCount <= 20) {
+				events.forEach(e => {
+					if (e.event === "workout completed" && typeof e.duration_minutes === "number") {
+						e.duration_minutes = Math.round(e.duration_minutes * 1.35);
+					}
+				});
+			} else if (workoutCount >= 21) {
+				const day30 = datasetStart.add(30, "days");
+				for (let i = events.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+					if (dayjs(events[i].time).isAfter(day30) && chance.bool({ likelihood: 30 })) {
+						events.splice(i, 1);
+					}
+				}
+			}
+
 			return record;
 		}