@agentsean/measure 1.0.0

package/dist/power.js

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+import { DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER } from "./types.js";
+import { UNDERPOWERED_MDE } from "./ladder.js";
+/** PLAN / gap-04 Monte-Carlo floors. Traffic does not move pre/post MDE. */
+export const PRE_POST_MDE_28D = 0.8;
+export const PRE_POST_MDE_56D = 0.55;
+export const PRE_POST_MDE_91D = 0.41;
+/** 200 pages, 2,000 clicks/mo, 100 vs 100, 56 days → ~18% (PLAN). */
+export const SPLIT_MDE_2K_56D = 0.18;
+/** Daily peeking vs fixed-horizon null false-positive rate. */
+export const PEEKING_FP_FIXED = 0.047;
+export const PEEKING_FP_DAILY = 0.229;
+/** Naive α=0.05 tests: P(≥1 false win) at 20 changes/month. */
+export const FABRICATED_WIN_20 = 0.64;
+export const SEARCHPILOT_MIN_SESSIONS = 30_000;
+export const SEMRUSH_MIN_CLICKS_100D = 100_000;
+export const DEFAULT_WINDOW_DAYS = 56;
+export const DEFAULT_SPLIT = 0.5;
+const CLICKS_ARM_MDE = [
+    [100, 0.75],
+    [250, 0.43],
+    [500, 0.31],
+    [1000, 0.22],
+    [1867, 0.18],
+    [2500, 0.16],
+    [5000, 0.15],
+    [10_000, 0.12],
+    [25_000, 0.11],
+];
+const PAGES_ARM_MDE = [
+    [10, 0.25],
+    [25, 0.2],
+    [50, 0.17],
+    [100, 0.15],
+    [250, 0.115],
+    [500, 0.099],
+];
+function lerpTable(table, x) {
+    if (x <= table[0][0])
+        return table[0][1];
+    const last = table[table.length - 1];
+    if (x >= last[0])
+        return last[1];
+    for (let i = 1; i < table.length; i++) {
+        const [x1, y1] = table[i - 1];
+        const [x2, y2] = table[i];
+        if (x <= x2) {
+            const t = (x - x1) / (x2 - x1);
+            return y1 + t * (y2 - y1);
+        }
+    }
+    return last[1];
+}
+/** Pre/post MDE is a function of window length, not traffic. */
+export function prePostMde(windowDays) {
+    if (windowDays <= 28)
+        return PRE_POST_MDE_28D;
+    if (windowDays <= 56) {
+        const t = (windowDays - 28) / 28;
+        return PRE_POST_MDE_28D + t * (PRE_POST_MDE_56D - PRE_POST_MDE_28D);
+    }
+    if (windowDays <= 91) {
+        const t = (windowDays - 56) / 35;
+        return PRE_POST_MDE_56D + t * (PRE_POST_MDE_91D - PRE_POST_MDE_56D);
+    }
+    return PRE_POST_MDE_91D;
+}
+export function clicksPerArmInWindow(monthlyClicks, windowDays, pagesPerArm, sitePages) {
+    const share = sitePages > 0 ? pagesPerArm / sitePages : DEFAULT_SPLIT;
+    return monthlyClicks * (windowDays / 30) * share;
+}
+/**
+ * Concurrent-control MDE. Binding constraints are clicks/arm and pages/arm;
+ * the floor is ~11% even at huge traffic with only 100 pages/arm.
+ */
+export function splitMde(opts) {
+    const windowDays = opts.windowDays ?? DEFAULT_WINDOW_DAYS;
+    const pagesPerArm = opts.pagesPerArm ?? Math.floor(opts.pageCount / 2);
+    const clicks = clicksPerArmInWindow(opts.monthlyClicks, windowDays, pagesPerArm, opts.pageCount);
+    const fromClicks = lerpTable(CLICKS_ARM_MDE, clicks);
+    const fromPages = lerpTable(PAGES_ARM_MDE, Math.max(pagesPerArm, 1));
+    let mde = Math.max(fromClicks, fromPages);
+    if (windowDays < 56) {
+        const scale = prePostMde(windowDays) / PRE_POST_MDE_56D;
+        mde *= Math.min(scale, 1.6);
+    }
+    else if (windowDays > 56) {
+        const scale = prePostMde(windowDays) / PRE_POST_MDE_56D;
+        mde *= Math.max(scale, 0.7);
+    }
+    return Math.round(mde * 1000) / 1000;
+}
+export function naiveFalseWinProbability(testsPerMonth, alpha = 0.05) {
+    if (testsPerMonth <= 0)
+        return 0;
+    return 1 - (1 - alpha) ** testsPerMonth;
+}
+export function sitePowerBrief(opts) {
+    const windowDays = opts.windowDays ?? DEFAULT_WINDOW_DAYS;
+    const pagesPerArm = Math.max(1, Math.floor(opts.pageCount / 2));
+    const pre = prePostMde(windowDays);
+    const split = splitMde({
+        monthlyClicks: opts.monthlyClicks,
+        pageCount: Math.max(opts.pageCount, 2),
+        windowDays,
+        pagesPerArm,
+    });
+    const belowIndustryBar = opts.monthlyClicks < SEARCHPILOT_MIN_SESSIONS ||
+        opts.monthlyClicks * (100 / 30) < SEMRUSH_MIN_CLICKS_100D;
+    const underpowered = split > UNDERPOWERED_MDE && pre > UNDERPOWERED_MDE;
+    const needed = 1900;
+    const message = belowIndustryBar
+        ? `Most changes on this site will land in evidence tier E (applied, not measurable). That is true of every SEO tool; only Sean says so. A ${opts.pageCount || 200}-page site with ${Math.round(opts.monthlyClicks)} clicks/month still needs ~${pct(split)} lift over ${windowDays} days for 80% power with a concurrent control. SearchPilot wants ${SEARCHPILOT_MIN_SESSIONS.toLocaleString()} organic sessions/month; Semrush SplitSignal wants 300 pages and ${SEMRUSH_MIN_CLICKS_100D.toLocaleString()} clicks per 100 days. Pre/post MDE is ~${pct(pre)} regardless of traffic. We'd need roughly ${needed} clicks per group over 8 weeks.`
+        : `Split-test MDE ≈ ${pct(split)} over ${windowDays} days with ${pagesPerArm} pages/arm. Pre/post MDE remains ~${pct(pre)}.`;
+    return {
+        monthlyClicks: opts.monthlyClicks,
+        pageCount: opts.pageCount,
+        windowDays,
+        pagesPerArm,
+        prePostMde: pre,
+        splitMde: split,
+        belowIndustryBar,
+        underpowered,
+        typicalTier: DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER,
+        message,
+    };
+}
+function pct(n) {
+    return `${Math.round(n * 1000) / 10}%`;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=power.js.map

package/dist/power.js.map

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package/dist/register.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+import type { SqliteDatabase } from "@agentsean/db";
+import { type StoredExperiment } from "./persist.js";
+import type { ExperimentSpec } from "./types.js";
+export type RegisterResult = {
+    experiment: StoredExperiment;
+    plannedMde: number;
+    status: "planned" | "refused";
+    reason: string | null;
+};
+export declare function monthlyClicksFromMap(preClicks: Record<string, number> | undefined, windowDays: number): number;
+/**
+ * Create the experiment *before* any change ships. Hypothesis, cohort
+ * assignment, and analysis date are frozen at insert.
+ */
+export declare function registerExperiment(db: SqliteDatabase, spec: ExperimentSpec, now?: Date): RegisterResult;
+export declare function startExperiment(db: SqliteDatabase, registered: RegisterResult): RegisterResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=register.d.ts.map

package/dist/register.d.ts.map

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package/dist/register.js

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+import { pages } from "@agentsean/db";
+import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { UNDERPOWERED_MDE } from "./ladder.js";
+import { splitMde, prePostMde, DEFAULT_WINDOW_DAYS } from "./power.js";
+import { insertExperiment, seedDataAnomalies, setExperimentStatus, } from "./persist.js";
+function dayDiff(start, end) {
+    const a = Date.parse(`${start}T00:00:00Z`);
+    const b = Date.parse(`${end}T00:00:00Z`);
+    if (!Number.isFinite(a) || !Number.isFinite(b))
+        return DEFAULT_WINDOW_DAYS;
+    return Math.max(1, Math.round((b - a) / 86_400_000) + 1);
+}
+export function monthlyClicksFromMap(preClicks, windowDays) {
+    if (!preClicks)
+        return 0;
+    let sum = 0;
+    for (const v of Object.values(preClicks))
+        sum += v;
+    return sum * (30 / Math.max(windowDays, 1));
+}
+/**
+ * Create the experiment *before* any change ships. Hypothesis, cohort
+ * assignment, and analysis date are frozen at insert.
+ */
+export function registerExperiment(db, spec, now = new Date()) {
+    seedDataAnomalies(db);
+    if (spec.unit === "url") {
+        throw new Error("Experiment unit cannot be 'url'. The unit of causal claim is the cohort.");
+    }
+    const windowDays = dayDiff(spec.postStart, spec.plannedEnd);
+    const pageCount = Math.max(spec.treatmentUrls.length + spec.controlUrls.length, db.select().from(pages).where(eq(pages.siteId, spec.siteId)).all().length, 2);
+    const monthly = monthlyClicksFromMap(spec.preClicks, dayDiff(spec.preStart, spec.preEnd));
+    const plannedMde = spec.design === "uncontrolled"
+        ? prePostMde(windowDays)
+        : splitMde({
+            monthlyClicks: Math.max(monthly, 1),
+            pageCount,
+            windowDays,
+            pagesPerArm: spec.controlUrls.length || Math.floor(pageCount / 2),
+        });
+    const underpowered = plannedMde > UNDERPOWERED_MDE;
+    const status = underpowered ? "refused" : "planned";
+    const id = insertExperiment(db, spec, plannedMde, status, now);
+    const experiment = {
+        id,
+        siteId: spec.siteId,
+        hypothesis: spec.hypothesis,
+        interventionKind: spec.interventionKind,
+        status,
+        design: spec.design,
+        unit: spec.unit,
+        randomisationSeed: spec.randomisationSeed ?? 1,
+        clusterKey: spec.clusterKey ?? null,
+        preStart: spec.preStart,
+        preEnd: spec.preEnd,
+        postStart: spec.postStart,
+        plannedEnd: spec.plannedEnd,
+        primaryMetric: spec.primaryMetric ?? "clicks",
+        secondaryMetric: null,
+        plannedMde,
+        powerTarget: spec.powerTarget ?? 0.8,
+        alpha: spec.alpha ?? 0.05,
+        evidenceTier: null,
+        peekingBlocked: 1,
+        createdAt: now.toISOString(),
+        concludedAt: null,
+    };
+    return {
+        experiment,
+        plannedMde,
+        status,
+        reason: underpowered
+            ? `Refused to start: planned MDE ${Math.round(plannedMde * 100)}% exceeds 40%. Marked not measurable by design.`
+            : null,
+    };
+}
+export function startExperiment(db, registered) {
+    if (registered.status === "refused")
+        return registered;
+    setExperimentStatus(db, registered.experiment.id, "running");
+    return {
+        ...registered,
+        experiment: { ...registered.experiment, status: "running" },
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=register.js.map

package/dist/register.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/suppress.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+import { IMPRESSIONS_BUG_BEGIN, IMPRESSIONS_BUG_END } from "@agentsean/google";
+import type { PageSeries, SuppressionRule } from "./types.js";
+export type SuppressInput = {
+    metric: string;
+    preStart: string;
+    plannedEnd: string;
+    hasControl: boolean;
+    plannedMde: number;
+    now: Date;
+    overlappingAnomalies?: Array<{
+        id: string;
+        metrics: string[];
+    }> | undefined;
+    overlappingRankingUpdate?: boolean | undefined;
+    treatment?: PageSeries[] | undefined;
+    control?: PageSeries[] | undefined;
+    reserve?: PageSeries[] | undefined;
+    cohort404Share?: number | undefined;
+    outOfBandEdits?: boolean | undefined;
+};
+export declare const SUPPRESSION_LABEL: Record<SuppressionRule, string>;
+export declare function suppress(input: SuppressInput): SuppressionRule[];
+export { IMPRESSIONS_BUG_BEGIN, IMPRESSIONS_BUG_END };
+//# sourceMappingURL=suppress.d.ts.map

package/dist/suppress.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/suppress.js

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+import { IMPRESSIONS_BUG_BEGIN, IMPRESSIONS_BUG_END, impressionsContaminated, num100Straddle, } from "@agentsean/google";
+import { UNDERPOWERED_MDE } from "./ladder.js";
+import { estimateLift } from "./estimator.js";
+export const SUPPRESSION_LABEL = {
+    S1: "GSC data-anomaly window overlaps the outcome metric",
+    S2: "Impressions logging error 2025-05-13 → 2026-04-27 (hard block)",
+    S3: "&num=100 removal straddles the window (hard block on impressions/position)",
+    S4: "No concurrent control — downgrade to applied, not measurable",
+    S5: "Google ranking update overlapped an uncontrolled window",
+    S6: "Google ranking update overlapped a controlled window (do not suppress; widen CI)",
+    S7: "Spillover: control vs reserve differs",
+    S8: "Underpowered (planned MDE > 40%)",
+    S9: "Peeking: analysis requested before planned_end",
+    S10: "Cohort drift: >10% of URLs 404/redirect/deindex",
+    S11: "Out-of-band CMS edit on treatment or control pages",
+};
+function isoDate(d) {
+    return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+}
+export function suppress(input) {
+    const rules = [];
+    const metric = input.metric;
+    const windowStart = input.preStart;
+    const windowEnd = input.plannedEnd;
+    if (input.overlappingAnomalies?.some((a) => a.metrics.includes(metric))) {
+        rules.push("S1");
+    }
+    if ((metric === "impressions" || metric === "ctr" || metric === "position") &&
+        impressionsContaminated(windowStart, windowEnd)) {
+        rules.push("S2");
+    }
+    if ((metric === "impressions" || metric === "position") &&
+        num100Straddle(windowStart, windowEnd)) {
+        rules.push("S3");
+    }
+    if (!input.hasControl) {
+        rules.push("S4");
+        if (input.overlappingRankingUpdate)
+            rules.push("S5");
+    }
+    else if (input.overlappingRankingUpdate) {
+        rules.push("S6");
+    }
+    if (input.hasControl && input.control && input.reserve && input.reserve.length > 0) {
+        const spill = estimateLift(input.control, input.reserve, { nBoot: 400, seed: 7 });
+        if (spill.probPositive > 0.9 || spill.probPositive < 0.1)
+            rules.push("S7");
+    }
+    if (input.plannedMde > UNDERPOWERED_MDE)
+        rules.push("S8");
+    if (isoDate(input.now) < input.plannedEnd)
+        rules.push("S9");
+    if ((input.cohort404Share ?? 0) > 0.1)
+        rules.push("S10");
+    if (input.outOfBandEdits)
+        rules.push("S11");
+    return rules;
+}
+export { IMPRESSIONS_BUG_BEGIN, IMPRESSIONS_BUG_END };
+//# sourceMappingURL=suppress.js.map

package/dist/suppress.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/track.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+/**
+ * Track A = measured (cohort-able, 56-day window).
+ * Track B = obviously-correct fixes applied everywhere, no hold-out, no causal claim.
+ * Routing rule: if a competent human SEO would refuse to hold this back as a control, it's Track B.
+ */
+export declare const TRACK_B_KINDS: Set<string>;
+export declare const TRACK_A_KINDS: Set<string>;
+export type Track = "A" | "B";
+export declare function trackForActionKind(kind: string): Track;
+//# sourceMappingURL=track.d.ts.map

package/dist/track.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"track.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/track.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;GAIG;AAEH,eAAO,MAAM,aAAa,aAOxB,CAAC;AAEH,eAAO,MAAM,aAAa,aAQxB,CAAC;AAEH,MAAM,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,GAAG,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC;AAE9B,wBAAgB,kBAAkB,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,KAAK,CAItD"}

package/dist/track.js

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+/**
+ * Track A = measured (cohort-able, 56-day window).
+ * Track B = obviously-correct fixes applied everywhere, no hold-out, no causal claim.
+ * Routing rule: if a competent human SEO would refuse to hold this back as a control, it's Track B.
+ */
+export const TRACK_B_KINDS = new Set([
+    "fix_broken_internal_link",
+    "add_image_alt",
+    "add_canonical",
+    "remove_sitemap_404",
+    "fix_malformed_schema",
+    "repair_redirect_chain",
+]);
+export const TRACK_A_KINDS = new Set([
+    "rewrite_title",
+    "rewrite_meta_description",
+    "rewrite_h1",
+    "inject_jsonld",
+    "insert_internal_link",
+    "refresh_content",
+    "create_page",
+]);
+export function trackForActionKind(kind) {
+    if (TRACK_B_KINDS.has(kind))
+        return "B";
+    if (TRACK_A_KINDS.has(kind))
+        return "A";
+    return "B";
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=track.js.map

package/dist/track.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/types.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+export declare const EVIDENCE_TIERS: readonly ["A", "B", "C", "D", "E"];
+export type EvidenceTier = (typeof EVIDENCE_TIERS)[number];
+export declare const EVIDENCE_MEANING: Record<EvidenceTier, string>;
+export declare const DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER: EvidenceTier;
+export declare const EXPERIMENT_STATUSES: readonly ["planned", "running", "analysing", "concluded", "abandoned", "refused"];
+export type ExperimentStatus = (typeof EXPERIMENT_STATUSES)[number];
+export declare const EXPERIMENT_DESIGNS: readonly ["split_cohort", "its_with_control_pool", "uncontrolled"];
+export type ExperimentDesign = (typeof EXPERIMENT_DESIGNS)[number];
+export declare const EXPERIMENT_UNITS: readonly ["page_group", "template", "section"];
+export type ExperimentUnit = (typeof EXPERIMENT_UNITS)[number];
+export declare const COHORT_ARMS: readonly ["treatment", "control", "reserve"];
+export type CohortArm = (typeof COHORT_ARMS)[number];
+export declare const SUPPRESSION_RULES: readonly ["S1", "S2", "S3", "S4", "S5", "S6", "S7", "S8", "S9", "S10", "S11"];
+export type SuppressionRule = (typeof SUPPRESSION_RULES)[number];
+export type PageSeries = {
+    url: string;
+    preClicks: number;
+    postClicks: number;
+    preImpressions?: number | undefined;
+    postImpressions?: number | undefined;
+};
+export type Estimate = {
+    lift: number;
+    ciLow: number;
+    ciHigh: number;
+    ciLevel: number;
+    probPositive: number;
+    nBoot: number;
+};
+export type PowerBrief = {
+    monthlyClicks: number;
+    pageCount: number;
+    windowDays: number;
+    pagesPerArm: number;
+    prePostMde: number;
+    splitMde: number;
+    belowIndustryBar: boolean;
+    underpowered: boolean;
+    typicalTier: EvidenceTier;
+    message: string;
+};
+export type ClaimRecord = {
+    id: string;
+    siteId: string;
+    changeId: string | null;
+    experimentId: string | null;
+    evidenceTier: EvidenceTier;
+    statement: string;
+    metric: string;
+    causationClaimed: boolean;
+    refusedReason: string | null;
+    createdAt: string;
+};
+export type ExperimentSpec = {
+    siteId: string;
+    hypothesis: string;
+    interventionKind: string;
+    design: ExperimentDesign;
+    unit: ExperimentUnit;
+    preStart: string;
+    preEnd: string;
+    postStart: string;
+    plannedEnd: string;
+    primaryMetric?: string | undefined;
+    powerTarget?: number | undefined;
+    alpha?: number | undefined;
+    randomisationSeed?: number | undefined;
+    clusterKey?: string | undefined;
+    treatmentUrls: string[];
+    controlUrls: string[];
+    reserveUrls?: string[] | undefined;
+    preClicks?: Record<string, number> | undefined;
+    preImpressions?: Record<string, number> | undefined;
+    contentHashAtStart?: Record<string, string> | undefined;
+};
+export type AnalysisInput = {
+    experimentId: string;
+    now: Date;
+    treatment: PageSeries[];
+    control: PageSeries[];
+    reserve?: PageSeries[] | undefined;
+    overlappingIncidentTitles?: string[] | undefined;
+    overlappingAnomalies?: Array<{
+        id: string;
+        metrics: string[];
+    }> | undefined;
+    metric?: string | undefined;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=types.d.ts.map

package/dist/types.d.ts.map

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package/dist/types.js

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+export const EVIDENCE_TIERS = ["A", "B", "C", "D", "E"];
+export const EVIDENCE_MEANING = {
+    A: "Controlled experiment with a matched cohort, pre-registered, sufficient power",
+    B: "Matched-cohort observational, effect exceeds MDE",
+    C: "Pre/post with a Google-update annotation join, effect exceeds MDE",
+    D: "Directional signal only, below MDE",
+    E: "Applied; not measurable at this site's traffic volume",
+};
+export const DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER = "E";
+export const EXPERIMENT_STATUSES = [
+    "planned",
+    "running",
+    "analysing",
+    "concluded",
+    "abandoned",
+    "refused",
+];
+export const EXPERIMENT_DESIGNS = [
+    "split_cohort",
+    "its_with_control_pool",
+    "uncontrolled",
+];
+export const EXPERIMENT_UNITS = ["page_group", "template", "section"];
+export const COHORT_ARMS = ["treatment", "control", "reserve"];
+export const SUPPRESSION_RULES = [
+    "S1",
+    "S2",
+    "S3",
+    "S4",
+    "S5",
+    "S6",
+    "S7",
+    "S8",
+    "S9",
+    "S10",
+    "S11",
+];
+//# sourceMappingURL=types.js.map

package/dist/types.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+{
+  "name": "@agentsean/measure",
+  "version": "1.0.0",
+  "license": "AGPL-3.0-only",
+  "type": "module",
+  "exports": {
+    ".": {
+      "types": "./dist/index.d.ts",
+      "import": "./dist/index.js"
+    }
+  },
+  "files": [
+    "dist"
+  ],
+  "engines": {
+    "node": ">=22.19.0"
+  },
+  "dependencies": {
+    "drizzle-orm": "0.45.2",
+    "@agentsean/db": "1.0.0",
+    "@agentsean/google": "1.0.0"
+  },
+  "devDependencies": {
+    "typescript": "~5.9.3",
+    "vitest": "^4.1.11"
+  },
+  "publishConfig": {
+    "access": "public"
+  },
+  "repository": {
+    "type": "git",
+    "url": "git+https://github.com/seziro-team/agentsean.git",
+    "directory": "packages/measure"
+  },
+  "homepage": "https://github.com/seziro-team/agentsean#readme",
+  "bugs": {
+    "url": "https://github.com/seziro-team/agentsean/issues"
+  },
+  "author": "Seziro (https://seziro.com)",
+  "description": "Agent Sean — measure module",
+  "keywords": [
+    "seo",
+    "agent",
+    "agentsean",
+    "seo-automation"
+  ],
+  "scripts": {
+    "build": "tsc -p tsconfig.json",
+    "typecheck": "tsc -p tsconfig.json --noEmit",
+    "test": "vitest run --config ../../vitest.config.ts"
+  }
+}