@agentsean/measure 1.0.0

package/dist/ladder.js

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+import { DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER, EVIDENCE_MEANING, EVIDENCE_TIERS, } from "./types.js";
+export { EVIDENCE_MEANING, EVIDENCE_TIERS, DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER };
+/** Realised MDE at or below this is "sufficient power" for tier A. */
+export const TIER_A_MDE_MAX = 0.25;
+/** Rule S8: refuse to start a test whose MDE exceeds 40%. */
+export const UNDERPOWERED_MDE = 0.4;
+export function isEvidenceTier(value) {
+    return EVIDENCE_TIERS.includes(value);
+}
+/**
+ * PLAN Phase 7 ladder. Most rows on agency sites land in E.
+ * Causation is only allowed for A.
+ */
+export function assignEvidenceTier(input) {
+    if (input.peeking)
+        return DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER;
+    if (input.underpowered || input.suppressed.includes("S8"))
+        return "E";
+    if (!input.applied && !input.preRegistered)
+        return "E";
+    const effect = input.lift;
+    const mde = input.realisedMde;
+    const exceedsMde = effect !== null &&
+        mde !== null &&
+        Number.isFinite(effect) &&
+        Number.isFinite(mde) &&
+        Math.abs(effect) >= mde;
+    const directional = effect !== null &&
+        Number.isFinite(effect) &&
+        effect !== 0 &&
+        (mde === null || Math.abs(effect) < mde);
+    if (input.hasControl &&
+        input.preRegistered &&
+        input.powerOk &&
+        input.suppressed.filter((s) => s !== "S6").length === 0) {
+        return "A";
+    }
+    if (input.hasControl && !input.preRegistered && exceedsMde)
+        return "B";
+    if (!input.hasControl && input.googleUpdateJoined && exceedsMde)
+        return "C";
+    if (directional)
+        return "D";
+    if (input.applied)
+        return "E";
+    return DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER;
+}
+export function claimCausation(tier) {
+    if (tier === "A") {
+        return {
+            allowed: true,
+            reason: EVIDENCE_MEANING.A,
+        };
+    }
+    return {
+        allowed: false,
+        reason: `Causation is not supported at evidence tier ${tier}: ${EVIDENCE_MEANING[tier]}`,
+    };
+}
+/** Per-URL "this change generated N clicks" must never exist. */
+export function refuseUrlAttribution(url) {
+    throw new Error(`Refused per-URL attribution for ${url}. The unit of causal claim is the cohort, never the URL.`);
+}
+export function statementFor(tier, opts) {
+    const liftPct = opts?.lift !== null && opts?.lift !== undefined ? pct(opts.lift) : null;
+    const mdePct = opts?.realisedMde !== null && opts?.realisedMde !== undefined
+        ? pct(opts.realisedMde)
+        : null;
+    switch (tier) {
+        case "A":
+            return liftPct
+                ? `Measured in a pre-registered controlled experiment. Relative lift ${liftPct} on clicks. ${EVIDENCE_MEANING.A}.`
+                : `Measured in a pre-registered controlled experiment. ${EVIDENCE_MEANING.A}.`;
+        case "B":
+            return `Matched-cohort observational comparison. Effect ${liftPct ?? "observed"} exceeds the MDE${mdePct ? ` (${mdePct})` : ""}. Not a pre-registered experiment.`;
+        case "C": {
+            const updates = opts?.incidentTitles?.length
+                ? ` Google updates in the window: ${opts.incidentTitles.join("; ")}.`
+                : " Google-update annotations are joined; other things also moved.";
+            return `Clicks moved ${liftPct ?? "directionally"} after this change.${updates} We cannot isolate the change.`;
+        }
+        case "D":
+            return `Directional signal only (${liftPct ?? "below the detectable floor"}). The test could only have detected changes larger than ${mdePct ?? "the MDE"}. Not a causal claim.`;
+        case "E":
+        default: {
+            const need = opts?.neededClicksPerArm
+                ? ` We'd need roughly ${Math.round(opts.neededClicksPerArm)} clicks per group over 8 weeks`
+                : " We'd need roughly 1,900 clicks per group over 8 weeks";
+            const have = opts?.monthlyClicks !== undefined
+                ? ` and this site has ~${Math.round(opts.monthlyClicks)} clicks/month.`
+                : ".";
+            return `Applied. Not measurable at this site's traffic volume.${need}${have} This is true of every SEO tool; only Sean says so.`;
+        }
+    }
+}
+function pct(n) {
+    return `${Math.round(n * 1000) / 10}%`;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=ladder.js.map

package/dist/ladder.js.map

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package/dist/peek.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+/**
+ * Peeking takes the null false-positive rate from 4.7% to 22.9%.
+ * planned_end is immutable once running; no verdict before that date.
+ */
+export type PeekDecision = {
+    allowed: true;
+    provisional: false;
+} | {
+    allowed: false;
+    provisional: true;
+    reason: string;
+};
+export declare function analysisDateReached(plannedEnd: string, now: Date): boolean;
+export declare function guardPeeking(plannedEnd: string, now: Date, peekingBlocked?: boolean): PeekDecision;
+export declare class PlannedEndImmutableError extends Error {
+    readonly name = "PlannedEndImmutableError";
+    constructor();
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=peek.d.ts.map

package/dist/peek.d.ts.map

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package/dist/peek.js

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+/**
+ * Peeking takes the null false-positive rate from 4.7% to 22.9%.
+ * planned_end is immutable once running; no verdict before that date.
+ */
+export function analysisDateReached(plannedEnd, now) {
+    return now.toISOString().slice(0, 10) >= plannedEnd;
+}
+export function guardPeeking(plannedEnd, now, peekingBlocked = true) {
+    if (analysisDateReached(plannedEnd, now)) {
+        return { allowed: true, provisional: false };
+    }
+    if (!peekingBlocked) {
+        return {
+            allowed: false,
+            provisional: true,
+            reason: `Provisional — not a decision. Analysis date is ${plannedEnd}.`,
+        };
+    }
+    return {
+        allowed: false,
+        provisional: true,
+        reason: `Peeking blocked until ${plannedEnd}. Daily peeking raises the null false-positive rate from 4.7% to 22.9%.`,
+    };
+}
+export class PlannedEndImmutableError extends Error {
+    name = "PlannedEndImmutableError";
+    constructor() {
+        super("planned_end is immutable once the experiment is running. Extending a running test manufactures false positives.");
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=peek.js.map

package/dist/peek.js.map

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package/dist/persist.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+import { type SqliteDatabase } from "@agentsean/db";
+import type { ClaimRecord, EvidenceTier, ExperimentSpec } from "./types.js";
+export type StoredExperiment = {
+    id: string;
+    siteId: string;
+    hypothesis: string;
+    interventionKind: string;
+    status: string;
+    design: string;
+    unit: string;
+    randomisationSeed: number;
+    clusterKey: string | null;
+    preStart: string;
+    preEnd: string;
+    postStart: string;
+    plannedEnd: string;
+    primaryMetric: string;
+    secondaryMetric: string | null;
+    plannedMde: number;
+    powerTarget: number;
+    alpha: number;
+    evidenceTier: string | null;
+    peekingBlocked: number;
+    createdAt: string;
+    concludedAt: string | null;
+};
+export declare function seedDataAnomalies(db: SqliteDatabase): number;
+export declare function insertExperiment(db: SqliteDatabase, spec: ExperimentSpec, plannedMde: number, status: string, now: Date): string;
+export declare function getExperiment(db: SqliteDatabase, id: string): StoredExperiment | null;
+export declare function listExperiments(db: SqliteDatabase, siteId: string): StoredExperiment[];
+export declare function setExperimentStatus(db: SqliteDatabase, id: string, status: string, extra?: {
+    evidenceTier?: string | null | undefined;
+    concludedAt?: string | null | undefined;
+}): void;
+export declare function assertPlannedEndImmutable(current: StoredExperiment, nextPlannedEnd: string): void;
+export declare function saveResult(db: SqliteDatabase, experimentId: string, row: {
+    metric: string;
+    pointEstimate: number | null;
+    ciLow: number | null;
+    ciHigh: number | null;
+    ciLevel: number | null;
+    probPositive: number | null;
+    realisedMde: number | null;
+    nBoot: number | null;
+    suppressedBy: string[];
+    evidenceTier: EvidenceTier;
+    statement: string;
+    causationClaimed: boolean;
+    analysedAt: string;
+}): void;
+export declare function saveClaim(db: SqliteDatabase, row: Omit<ClaimRecord, "id" | "createdAt"> & {
+    id?: string | undefined;
+    createdAt?: string | undefined;
+}): ClaimRecord;
+export declare function listClaims(db: SqliteDatabase, siteId: string): ClaimRecord[];
+export declare function claimForChange(db: SqliteDatabase, changeId: string): ClaimRecord | null;
+export declare function listCohortUrls(db: SqliteDatabase, experimentId: string): {
+    treatment: string[];
+    control: string[];
+    reserve: string[];
+};
+export declare function overlappingAnomalies(db: SqliteDatabase, start: string, end: string): Array<{
+    id: string;
+    metrics: string[];
+}>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=persist.d.ts.map

package/dist/persist.d.ts.map

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package/dist/persist.js

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+import { randomUUID } from "node:crypto";
+import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { claims, cohortMembers, cohorts, dataAnomalies, experimentResults, experiments, } from "@agentsean/db";
+import { PlannedEndImmutableError } from "./peek.js";
+const HARDCODED_ANOMALIES = [
+    {
+        id: "gsc-impressions-logging-error-2025",
+        description: "GSC impressions logging error. Clicks unaffected.",
+        startDate: "2025-05-13",
+        endDate: "2026-04-27",
+        metrics: ["impressions", "ctr", "position"],
+        surfaces: ["web"],
+        source: "google_official",
+    },
+    {
+        id: "gsc-num100-removal-2025",
+        description: "&num=100 parameter removed. Impression/position step-change.",
+        startDate: "2025-09-12",
+        endDate: "2025-09-12",
+        metrics: ["impressions", "position"],
+        surfaces: ["web"],
+        source: "hardcoded",
+    },
+];
+export function seedDataAnomalies(db) {
+    let n = 0;
+    for (const row of HARDCODED_ANOMALIES) {
+        const existing = db
+            .select()
+            .from(dataAnomalies)
+            .where(eq(dataAnomalies.id, row.id))
+            .get();
+        const values = {
+            description: row.description,
+            startDate: row.startDate,
+            endDate: row.endDate,
+            affectedMetrics: JSON.stringify(row.metrics),
+            affectedSurfaces: JSON.stringify(row.surfaces),
+            source: row.source,
+        };
+        if (existing) {
+            db.update(dataAnomalies).set(values).where(eq(dataAnomalies.id, row.id)).run();
+        }
+        else {
+            db.insert(dataAnomalies)
+                .values({ id: row.id, ...values })
+                .run();
+        }
+        n++;
+    }
+    return n;
+}
+export function insertExperiment(db, spec, plannedMde, status, now) {
+    const id = randomUUID();
+    const ts = now.toISOString();
+    db.insert(experiments)
+        .values({
+        id,
+        siteId: spec.siteId,
+        hypothesis: spec.hypothesis,
+        interventionKind: spec.interventionKind,
+        status,
+        design: spec.design,
+        unit: spec.unit,
+        randomisationSeed: spec.randomisationSeed ?? 1,
+        clusterKey: spec.clusterKey ?? null,
+        preStart: spec.preStart,
+        preEnd: spec.preEnd,
+        postStart: spec.postStart,
+        plannedEnd: spec.plannedEnd,
+        primaryMetric: spec.primaryMetric ?? "clicks",
+        secondaryMetric: null,
+        plannedMde,
+        powerTarget: spec.powerTarget ?? 0.8,
+        alpha: spec.alpha ?? 0.05,
+        evidenceTier: null,
+        peekingBlocked: 1,
+        createdAt: ts,
+        concludedAt: null,
+    })
+        .run();
+    const arms = [
+        { arm: "treatment", urls: spec.treatmentUrls },
+        { arm: "control", urls: spec.controlUrls },
+        { arm: "reserve", urls: spec.reserveUrls ?? [] },
+    ];
+    for (const a of arms) {
+        const cohortId = randomUUID();
+        db.insert(cohorts).values({ id: cohortId, experimentId: id, arm: a.arm }).run();
+        for (const url of a.urls) {
+            db.insert(cohortMembers)
+                .values({
+                id: randomUUID(),
+                cohortId,
+                url,
+                preClicks: spec.preClicks?.[url] ?? 0,
+                preImpressions: spec.preImpressions?.[url] ?? 0,
+                contentHashAtStart: spec.contentHashAtStart?.[url] ?? null,
+            })
+                .run();
+        }
+    }
+    return id;
+}
+export function getExperiment(db, id) {
+    const row = db.select().from(experiments).where(eq(experiments.id, id)).get();
+    return row ?? null;
+}
+export function listExperiments(db, siteId) {
+    return db.select().from(experiments).where(eq(experiments.siteId, siteId)).all();
+}
+export function setExperimentStatus(db, id, status, extra) {
+    const patch = { status };
+    if (extra && "evidenceTier" in extra)
+        patch.evidenceTier = extra.evidenceTier ?? null;
+    if (extra && "concludedAt" in extra)
+        patch.concludedAt = extra.concludedAt ?? null;
+    db.update(experiments).set(patch).where(eq(experiments.id, id)).run();
+}
+export function assertPlannedEndImmutable(current, nextPlannedEnd) {
+    if (current.status === "planned")
+        return;
+    if (current.plannedEnd !== nextPlannedEnd)
+        throw new PlannedEndImmutableError();
+}
+export function saveResult(db, experimentId, row) {
+    const existing = db
+        .select()
+        .from(experimentResults)
+        .where(eq(experimentResults.experimentId, experimentId))
+        .get();
+    const values = {
+        metric: row.metric,
+        pointEstimate: row.pointEstimate,
+        ciLow: row.ciLow,
+        ciHigh: row.ciHigh,
+        ciLevel: row.ciLevel,
+        probPositive: row.probPositive,
+        realisedMde: row.realisedMde,
+        nBoot: row.nBoot,
+        suppressedBy: JSON.stringify(row.suppressedBy),
+        evidenceTier: row.evidenceTier,
+        statement: row.statement,
+        causationClaimed: row.causationClaimed ? 1 : 0,
+        analysedAt: row.analysedAt,
+    };
+    if (existing) {
+        db.update(experimentResults)
+            .set(values)
+            .where(eq(experimentResults.experimentId, experimentId))
+            .run();
+        return;
+    }
+    db.insert(experimentResults)
+        .values({ experimentId, ...values })
+        .run();
+}
+export function saveClaim(db, row) {
+    const id = row.id ?? randomUUID();
+    const createdAt = row.createdAt ?? new Date().toISOString();
+    const values = {
+        siteId: row.siteId,
+        changeId: row.changeId,
+        experimentId: row.experimentId,
+        evidenceTier: row.evidenceTier,
+        statement: row.statement,
+        metric: row.metric,
+        causationClaimed: row.causationClaimed ? 1 : 0,
+        refusedReason: row.refusedReason,
+        createdAt,
+    };
+    db.insert(claims)
+        .values({ id, ...values })
+        .run();
+    return {
+        id,
+        siteId: row.siteId,
+        changeId: row.changeId,
+        experimentId: row.experimentId,
+        evidenceTier: row.evidenceTier,
+        statement: row.statement,
+        metric: row.metric,
+        causationClaimed: row.causationClaimed,
+        refusedReason: row.refusedReason,
+        createdAt,
+    };
+}
+export function listClaims(db, siteId) {
+    return db
+        .select()
+        .from(claims)
+        .where(eq(claims.siteId, siteId))
+        .all()
+        .map((r) => ({
+        id: r.id,
+        siteId: r.siteId,
+        changeId: r.changeId,
+        experimentId: r.experimentId,
+        evidenceTier: r.evidenceTier,
+        statement: r.statement,
+        metric: r.metric,
+        causationClaimed: r.causationClaimed === 1,
+        refusedReason: r.refusedReason,
+        createdAt: r.createdAt,
+    }));
+}
+export function claimForChange(db, changeId) {
+    const row = db.select().from(claims).where(eq(claims.changeId, changeId)).get();
+    if (!row)
+        return null;
+    return {
+        id: row.id,
+        siteId: row.siteId,
+        changeId: row.changeId,
+        experimentId: row.experimentId,
+        evidenceTier: row.evidenceTier,
+        statement: row.statement,
+        metric: row.metric,
+        causationClaimed: row.causationClaimed === 1,
+        refusedReason: row.refusedReason,
+        createdAt: row.createdAt,
+    };
+}
+export function listCohortUrls(db, experimentId) {
+    const rows = db
+        .select()
+        .from(cohorts)
+        .where(eq(cohorts.experimentId, experimentId))
+        .all();
+    const out = {
+        treatment: [],
+        control: [],
+        reserve: [],
+    };
+    for (const c of rows) {
+        const members = db
+            .select()
+            .from(cohortMembers)
+            .where(eq(cohortMembers.cohortId, c.id))
+            .all();
+        const urls = members.map((m) => m.url);
+        if (c.arm === "treatment")
+            out.treatment.push(...urls);
+        else if (c.arm === "control")
+            out.control.push(...urls);
+        else if (c.arm === "reserve")
+            out.reserve.push(...urls);
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+export function overlappingAnomalies(db, start, end) {
+    return db
+        .select()
+        .from(dataAnomalies)
+        .all()
+        .filter((r) => {
+        const e = r.endDate ?? r.startDate;
+        return r.startDate <= end && e >= start;
+    })
+        .map((r) => ({
+        id: r.id,
+        metrics: JSON.parse(r.affectedMetrics),
+    }));
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=persist.js.map

package/dist/persist.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/power.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+import { type PowerBrief } from "./types.js";
+/** PLAN / gap-04 Monte-Carlo floors. Traffic does not move pre/post MDE. */
+export declare const PRE_POST_MDE_28D = 0.8;
+export declare const PRE_POST_MDE_56D = 0.55;
+export declare const PRE_POST_MDE_91D = 0.41;
+/** 200 pages, 2,000 clicks/mo, 100 vs 100, 56 days → ~18% (PLAN). */
+export declare const SPLIT_MDE_2K_56D = 0.18;
+/** Daily peeking vs fixed-horizon null false-positive rate. */
+export declare const PEEKING_FP_FIXED = 0.047;
+export declare const PEEKING_FP_DAILY = 0.229;
+/** Naive α=0.05 tests: P(≥1 false win) at 20 changes/month. */
+export declare const FABRICATED_WIN_20 = 0.64;
+export declare const SEARCHPILOT_MIN_SESSIONS = 30000;
+export declare const SEMRUSH_MIN_CLICKS_100D = 100000;
+export declare const DEFAULT_WINDOW_DAYS = 56;
+export declare const DEFAULT_SPLIT = 0.5;
+/** Pre/post MDE is a function of window length, not traffic. */
+export declare function prePostMde(windowDays: number): number;
+export declare function clicksPerArmInWindow(monthlyClicks: number, windowDays: number, pagesPerArm: number, sitePages: number): number;
+/**
+ * Concurrent-control MDE. Binding constraints are clicks/arm and pages/arm;
+ * the floor is ~11% even at huge traffic with only 100 pages/arm.
+ */
+export declare function splitMde(opts: {
+    monthlyClicks: number;
+    pageCount: number;
+    windowDays?: number | undefined;
+    pagesPerArm?: number | undefined;
+}): number;
+export declare function naiveFalseWinProbability(testsPerMonth: number, alpha?: number): number;
+export declare function sitePowerBrief(opts: {
+    monthlyClicks: number;
+    pageCount: number;
+    windowDays?: number | undefined;
+}): PowerBrief;
+//# sourceMappingURL=power.d.ts.map

package/dist/power.d.ts.map

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