@agentsean/measure 1.0.0

package/dist/analyze.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/analyze.js

@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+import { changepointsOverlapping } from "@agentsean/google";
+import { assignEvidenceTier, claimCausation, statementFor, TIER_A_MDE_MAX, UNDERPOWERED_MDE, } from "./ladder.js";
+import { estimateLift } from "./estimator.js";
+import { suppress } from "./suppress.js";
+import { guardPeeking } from "./peek.js";
+import { getExperiment, overlappingAnomalies, saveClaim, saveResult, setExperimentStatus, } from "./persist.js";
+import { splitMde, prePostMde } from "./power.js";
+export function analyzeExperiment(db, input) {
+    const exp = getExperiment(db, input.experimentId);
+    if (!exp)
+        throw new Error(`unknown experiment ${input.experimentId}`);
+    const peek = guardPeeking(exp.plannedEnd, input.now, exp.peekingBlocked === 1);
+    const metric = input.metric ?? exp.primaryMetric;
+    const hasControl = input.control.length > 0 && exp.design !== "uncontrolled";
+    const incidents = changepointsOverlapping(db, exp.preStart, exp.plannedEnd);
+    const ranking = incidents.some((c) => /core|spam|ranking|update/i.test(c.title) || c.kind === "RANKING_UPDATE");
+    const anomalies = input.overlappingAnomalies ??
+        overlappingAnomalies(db, exp.preStart, exp.plannedEnd);
+    const realisedMde = hasControl
+        ? splitMde({
+            monthlyClicks: monthlyFromSeries(input.treatment, input.control),
+            pageCount: Math.max(input.treatment.length + input.control.length, 2),
+            pagesPerArm: Math.max(input.control.length, 1),
+        })
+        : prePostMde(56);
+    const rules = suppress({
+        metric,
+        preStart: exp.preStart,
+        plannedEnd: exp.plannedEnd,
+        hasControl,
+        plannedMde: exp.plannedMde,
+        now: input.now,
+        overlappingAnomalies: anomalies,
+        overlappingRankingUpdate: ranking,
+        treatment: input.treatment,
+        control: input.control,
+        reserve: input.reserve,
+    });
+    if (!peek.allowed) {
+        const statement = peek.reason;
+        return {
+            experimentId: exp.id,
+            peeking: true,
+            provisional: true,
+            reason: peek.reason,
+            evidenceTier: null,
+            causationClaimed: false,
+            statement,
+            lift: null,
+            ciLow: null,
+            ciHigh: null,
+            probPositive: null,
+            realisedMde,
+            suppressedBy: rules.includes("S9") ? rules : ["S9", ...rules],
+        };
+    }
+    const est = input.treatment.length > 0
+        ? estimateLift(input.treatment, hasControl ? input.control : zeroControl(input.treatment), {
+            seed: exp.randomisationSeed,
+        })
+        : null;
+    const lift = est?.lift ?? null;
+    const tier = assignEvidenceTier({
+        applied: true,
+        preRegistered: true,
+        design: exp.design,
+        hasControl,
+        powerOk: realisedMde <= TIER_A_MDE_MAX,
+        underpowered: exp.plannedMde > UNDERPOWERED_MDE || rules.includes("S8"),
+        peeking: false,
+        suppressed: rules,
+        lift,
+        realisedMde,
+        googleUpdateJoined: true,
+    });
+    const cause = claimCausation(tier);
+    const causationClaimed = cause.allowed && est !== null && est.ciLow > 0;
+    const statement = peekingOrStatement(tier, {
+        lift,
+        realisedMde,
+        incidentTitles: incidents.map((c) => c.title),
+    });
+    saveResult(db, exp.id, {
+        metric,
+        pointEstimate: lift,
+        ciLow: est?.ciLow ?? null,
+        ciHigh: est?.ciHigh ?? null,
+        ciLevel: est?.ciLevel ?? null,
+        probPositive: est?.probPositive ?? null,
+        realisedMde,
+        nBoot: est?.nBoot ?? null,
+        suppressedBy: rules,
+        evidenceTier: tier,
+        statement,
+        causationClaimed,
+        analysedAt: input.now.toISOString(),
+    });
+    setExperimentStatus(db, exp.id, "concluded", {
+        evidenceTier: tier,
+        concludedAt: input.now.toISOString(),
+    });
+    saveClaim(db, {
+        siteId: exp.siteId,
+        changeId: null,
+        experimentId: exp.id,
+        evidenceTier: tier,
+        statement,
+        metric,
+        causationClaimed,
+        refusedReason: causationClaimed ? null : cause.reason,
+        createdAt: input.now.toISOString(),
+    });
+    return {
+        experimentId: exp.id,
+        peeking: false,
+        provisional: false,
+        reason: null,
+        evidenceTier: tier,
+        causationClaimed,
+        statement,
+        lift,
+        ciLow: est?.ciLow ?? null,
+        ciHigh: est?.ciHigh ?? null,
+        probPositive: est?.probPositive ?? null,
+        realisedMde,
+        suppressedBy: rules,
+    };
+}
+function peekingOrStatement(tier, opts) {
+    return statementFor(tier, {
+        lift: opts.lift,
+        realisedMde: opts.realisedMde,
+        incidentTitles: opts.incidentTitles,
+    });
+}
+function monthlyFromSeries(treatment, control) {
+    let clicks = 0;
+    for (const r of treatment)
+        clicks += r.preClicks;
+    for (const r of control)
+        clicks += r.preClicks;
+    return clicks * (30 / 56);
+}
+function zeroControl(treatment) {
+    return treatment.map((r) => ({
+        url: `control:${r.url}`,
+        preClicks: r.preClicks,
+        postClicks: r.preClicks,
+    }));
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=analyze.js.map

package/dist/analyze.js.map

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package/dist/claims.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+import { type SqliteDatabase } from "@agentsean/db";
+import { claimForChange, listClaims } from "./persist.js";
+import type { ClaimRecord } from "./types.js";
+export type ClaimHeadline = {
+    applied: number;
+    byTier: Record<string, number>;
+    measured: number;
+    notMeasurable: number;
+    line: string;
+};
+export declare function headline(rows: ClaimRecord[]): ClaimHeadline;
+export declare function labelAppliedChange(db: SqliteDatabase, opts: {
+    siteId: string;
+    changeId: string;
+    now?: Date | undefined;
+    monthlyClicks?: number | undefined;
+    pageCount?: number | undefined;
+}): ClaimRecord;
+export declare function backfillUnlabelledChanges(db: SqliteDatabase, siteId: string, now: Date, traffic?: {
+    monthlyClicks: number;
+    pageCount: number;
+}): number;
+export { listClaims, claimForChange };
+//# sourceMappingURL=claims.d.ts.map

package/dist/claims.d.ts.map

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package/dist/claims.js

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { changes } from "@agentsean/db";
+import { DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER, claimCausation, statementFor } from "./ladder.js";
+import { sitePowerBrief } from "./power.js";
+import { claimForChange, listClaims, saveClaim } from "./persist.js";
+export function headline(rows) {
+    const byTier = { A: 0, B: 0, C: 0, D: 0, E: 0 };
+    for (const r of rows) {
+        byTier[r.evidenceTier] = (byTier[r.evidenceTier] ?? 0) + 1;
+    }
+    const applied = rows.length;
+    const measured = (byTier.A ?? 0) + (byTier.B ?? 0);
+    const notMeasurable = byTier.E ?? 0;
+    const line = `${applied} changes applied · ${measured} measured · ${byTier.C ?? 0} observed pre/post · ${byTier.D ?? 0} directional · ${notMeasurable} not measurable`;
+    return { applied, byTier, measured, notMeasurable, line };
+}
+export function labelAppliedChange(db, opts) {
+    const existing = claimForChange(db, opts.changeId);
+    if (existing)
+        return existing;
+    const brief = sitePowerBrief({
+        monthlyClicks: opts.monthlyClicks ?? 0,
+        pageCount: opts.pageCount ?? 0,
+    });
+    const cause = claimCausation(DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER);
+    return saveClaim(db, {
+        siteId: opts.siteId,
+        changeId: opts.changeId,
+        experimentId: null,
+        evidenceTier: DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER,
+        statement: statementFor(DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER, {
+            monthlyClicks: brief.monthlyClicks,
+            neededClicksPerArm: 1900,
+        }),
+        metric: "clicks",
+        causationClaimed: false,
+        refusedReason: cause.reason,
+        createdAt: (opts.now ?? new Date()).toISOString(),
+    });
+}
+export function backfillUnlabelledChanges(db, siteId, now, traffic) {
+    const rows = db.select().from(changes).where(eq(changes.siteId, siteId)).all();
+    let n = 0;
+    for (const row of rows) {
+        if (claimForChange(db, row.id))
+            continue;
+        labelAppliedChange(db, {
+            siteId,
+            changeId: row.id,
+            now,
+            monthlyClicks: traffic?.monthlyClicks,
+            pageCount: traffic?.pageCount,
+        });
+        n++;
+    }
+    return n;
+}
+export { listClaims, claimForChange };
+//# sourceMappingURL=claims.js.map

package/dist/claims.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/engine.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+import { type SqliteDatabase } from "@agentsean/db";
+import { type AnalysisResult } from "./analyze.js";
+import type { ClaimRecord, PageSeries, PowerBrief } from "./types.js";
+import type { WaterfallResult } from "@agentsean/google";
+export type MeasureJobResult = {
+    siteId: string;
+    power: PowerBrief;
+    waterfall: WaterfallResult | null;
+    analysed: AnalysisResult[];
+    claims: ClaimRecord[];
+    headline: string;
+    backfilled: number;
+};
+export declare function monthlyClicksForSite(db: SqliteDatabase, siteId: string): number;
+export declare function seriesForUrls(db: SqliteDatabase, siteId: string, urls: string[], preStart: string, preEnd: string, postStart: string, postEnd: string): PageSeries[];
+export declare function runMeasureJob(db: SqliteDatabase, opts: {
+    siteId: string;
+    now?: Date | undefined;
+}): MeasureJobResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=engine.d.ts.map

package/dist/engine.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/engine.js

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { gscDaily, gscPageDaily, pages } from "@agentsean/db";
+import { persistWaterfall, waterfallFromSite } from "@agentsean/google";
+import { sitePowerBrief } from "./power.js";
+import { analyzeExperiment } from "./analyze.js";
+import { backfillUnlabelledChanges, headline, listClaims } from "./claims.js";
+import { getExperiment, listCohortUrls, listExperiments, seedDataAnomalies, } from "./persist.js";
+function addDays(iso, days) {
+    const t = Date.parse(`${iso}T00:00:00Z`) + days * 86_400_000;
+    return new Date(t).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+}
+export function monthlyClicksForSite(db, siteId) {
+    const rows = db.select().from(gscDaily).where(eq(gscDaily.siteId, siteId)).all();
+    const byDate = new Map();
+    for (const r of rows) {
+        if (r.searchType !== "web")
+            continue;
+        byDate.set(r.date, (byDate.get(r.date) ?? 0) + r.clicks);
+    }
+    if (byDate.size === 0)
+        return 0;
+    let sum = 0;
+    for (const v of byDate.values())
+        sum += v;
+    return sum * (30 / byDate.size);
+}
+export function seriesForUrls(db, siteId, urls, preStart, preEnd, postStart, postEnd) {
+    const rows = db
+        .select()
+        .from(gscPageDaily)
+        .where(eq(gscPageDaily.siteId, siteId))
+        .all();
+    const out = [];
+    for (const url of urls) {
+        let pre = 0;
+        let post = 0;
+        for (const r of rows) {
+            if (r.page !== url || r.searchType !== "web")
+                continue;
+            if (r.date >= preStart && r.date <= preEnd)
+                pre += r.clicks;
+            if (r.date >= postStart && r.date <= postEnd)
+                post += r.clicks;
+        }
+        out.push({ url, preClicks: pre, postClicks: post });
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+export function runMeasureJob(db, opts) {
+    const now = opts.now ?? new Date();
+    const today = now.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+    seedDataAnomalies(db);
+    const monthly = monthlyClicksForSite(db, opts.siteId);
+    const pageCount = db
+        .select()
+        .from(pages)
+        .where(eq(pages.siteId, opts.siteId))
+        .all().length;
+    const power = sitePowerBrief({ monthlyClicks: monthly, pageCount });
+    const windowEnd = addDays(today, -3);
+    const windowStart = addDays(windowEnd, -27);
+    let waterfall = null;
+    try {
+        waterfall = waterfallFromSite(db, opts.siteId, windowStart, windowEnd);
+        persistWaterfall(db, opts.siteId, waterfall, now);
+    }
+    catch {
+        waterfall = null;
+    }
+    const analysed = [];
+    for (const exp of listExperiments(db, opts.siteId)) {
+        if (exp.status !== "running" &&
+            exp.status !== "planned" &&
+            exp.status !== "analysing")
+            continue;
+        if (exp.status === "planned")
+            continue;
+        const stored = getExperiment(db, exp.id);
+        if (!stored)
+            continue;
+        const urls = listCohortUrls(db, exp.id);
+        const treatment = seriesForUrls(db, opts.siteId, urls.treatment, stored.preStart, stored.preEnd, stored.postStart, stored.plannedEnd);
+        const control = seriesForUrls(db, opts.siteId, urls.control, stored.preStart, stored.preEnd, stored.postStart, stored.plannedEnd);
+        const reserve = seriesForUrls(db, opts.siteId, urls.reserve, stored.preStart, stored.preEnd, stored.postStart, stored.plannedEnd);
+        analysed.push(analyzeExperiment(db, {
+            experimentId: exp.id,
+            now,
+            treatment,
+            control,
+            reserve,
+        }));
+    }
+    const backfilled = backfillUnlabelledChanges(db, opts.siteId, now, {
+        monthlyClicks: monthly,
+        pageCount,
+    });
+    const claims = listClaims(db, opts.siteId);
+    return {
+        siteId: opts.siteId,
+        power,
+        waterfall,
+        analysed,
+        claims,
+        headline: headline(claims).line,
+        backfilled,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=engine.js.map

package/dist/engine.js.map

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package/dist/estimator.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+import type { Estimate, PageSeries } from "./types.js";
+export declare const DEFAULT_BOOT = 2000;
+export declare const DEFAULT_CI_LEVEL = 0.95;
+/**
+ * Click-weighted log ratio-of-ratios:
+ * log(post_T / pre_T) − log(post_C / pre_C).
+ * Continuity correction of 0.5 so zeros do not explode.
+ */
+export declare function logRatioOfRatios(treatment: PageSeries[], control: PageSeries[]): number;
+export declare function relativeLift(logEstimate: number): number;
+export declare function estimateLift(treatment: PageSeries[], control: PageSeries[], opts?: {
+    nBoot?: number | undefined;
+    seed?: number | undefined;
+    ciLevel?: number | undefined;
+}): Estimate;
+export declare function ciSpansZero(est: Estimate): boolean;
+//# sourceMappingURL=estimator.d.ts.map

package/dist/estimator.d.ts.map

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package/dist/estimator.js

@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+export const DEFAULT_BOOT = 2000;
+export const DEFAULT_CI_LEVEL = 0.95;
+function mulberry32(seed) {
+    let a = seed >>> 0;
+    return () => {
+        a = (a + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0;
+        let t = a;
+        t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1);
+        t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61);
+        return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
+    };
+}
+function sumClicks(rows, field) {
+    let s = 0;
+    for (const r of rows)
+        s += r[field];
+    return s;
+}
+/**
+ * Click-weighted log ratio-of-ratios:
+ * log(post_T / pre_T) − log(post_C / pre_C).
+ * Continuity correction of 0.5 so zeros do not explode.
+ */
+export function logRatioOfRatios(treatment, control) {
+    const preT = sumClicks(treatment, "preClicks") + 0.5;
+    const postT = sumClicks(treatment, "postClicks") + 0.5;
+    const preC = sumClicks(control, "preClicks") + 0.5;
+    const postC = sumClicks(control, "postClicks") + 0.5;
+    return Math.log(postT / preT) - Math.log(postC / preC);
+}
+export function relativeLift(logEstimate) {
+    return Math.exp(logEstimate) - 1;
+}
+function resample(rows, rng) {
+    if (rows.length === 0)
+        return [];
+    const out = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < rows.length; i++) {
+        const idx = Math.floor(rng() * rows.length);
+        out.push(rows[idx]);
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+function quantile(sorted, q) {
+    if (sorted.length === 0)
+        return 0;
+    const i = Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.max(0, Math.floor(q * (sorted.length - 1))));
+    return sorted[i];
+}
+export function estimateLift(treatment, control, opts) {
+    const nBoot = opts?.nBoot ?? DEFAULT_BOOT;
+    const ciLevel = opts?.ciLevel ?? DEFAULT_CI_LEVEL;
+    const seed = opts?.seed ?? 1;
+    const pointLog = logRatioOfRatios(treatment, control);
+    const lift = relativeLift(pointLog);
+    if (treatment.length === 0 || control.length === 0) {
+        return {
+            lift,
+            ciLow: lift,
+            ciHigh: lift,
+            ciLevel,
+            probPositive: lift > 0 ? 1 : 0,
+            nBoot: 0,
+        };
+    }
+    const rng = mulberry32(seed);
+    const samples = [];
+    let positive = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < nBoot; i++) {
+        const t = resample(treatment, rng);
+        const c = resample(control, rng);
+        const v = relativeLift(logRatioOfRatios(t, c));
+        samples.push(v);
+        if (v > 0)
+            positive++;
+    }
+    samples.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    const alpha = (1 - ciLevel) / 2;
+    return {
+        lift,
+        ciLow: quantile(samples, alpha),
+        ciHigh: quantile(samples, 1 - alpha),
+        ciLevel,
+        probPositive: positive / nBoot,
+        nBoot,
+    };
+}
+export function ciSpansZero(est) {
+    return est.ciLow <= 0 && est.ciHigh >= 0;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=estimator.js.map

package/dist/estimator.js.map

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package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+export type { EvidenceTier, ExperimentStatus, ExperimentDesign, ExperimentUnit, CohortArm, SuppressionRule, PageSeries, Estimate, PowerBrief, ClaimRecord, ExperimentSpec, AnalysisInput, } from "./types.js";
+export { EVIDENCE_TIERS, EVIDENCE_MEANING, DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER, EXPERIMENT_STATUSES, EXPERIMENT_DESIGNS, EXPERIMENT_UNITS, COHORT_ARMS, SUPPRESSION_RULES, } from "./types.js";
+export { assignEvidenceTier, claimCausation, refuseUrlAttribution, statementFor, isEvidenceTier, TIER_A_MDE_MAX, UNDERPOWERED_MDE, } from "./ladder.js";
+export { prePostMde, splitMde, sitePowerBrief, clicksPerArmInWindow, naiveFalseWinProbability, PRE_POST_MDE_28D, PRE_POST_MDE_56D, PRE_POST_MDE_91D, SPLIT_MDE_2K_56D, PEEKING_FP_FIXED, PEEKING_FP_DAILY, FABRICATED_WIN_20, SEARCHPILOT_MIN_SESSIONS, SEMRUSH_MIN_CLICKS_100D, DEFAULT_WINDOW_DAYS, } from "./power.js";
+export { estimateLift, logRatioOfRatios, relativeLift, ciSpansZero, } from "./estimator.js";
+export { suppress, SUPPRESSION_LABEL } from "./suppress.js";
+export { guardPeeking, analysisDateReached, PlannedEndImmutableError } from "./peek.js";
+export { registerExperiment, startExperiment, type RegisterResult, } from "./register.js";
+export { seedDataAnomalies, getExperiment, listExperiments, listClaims, claimForChange, saveClaim, listCohortUrls, setExperimentStatus, assertPlannedEndImmutable, type StoredExperiment, } from "./persist.js";
+export { analyzeExperiment, type AnalysisResult } from "./analyze.js";
+export { labelAppliedChange, backfillUnlabelledChanges, headline } from "./claims.js";
+export { trackForActionKind, TRACK_A_KINDS, TRACK_B_KINDS, type Track, } from "./track.js";
+export { runMeasureJob, monthlyClicksForSite, seriesForUrls, type MeasureJobResult, } from "./engine.js";
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.d.ts.map

package/dist/index.d.ts.map

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package/dist/index.js

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+export { EVIDENCE_TIERS, EVIDENCE_MEANING, DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER, EXPERIMENT_STATUSES, EXPERIMENT_DESIGNS, EXPERIMENT_UNITS, COHORT_ARMS, SUPPRESSION_RULES, } from "./types.js";
+export { assignEvidenceTier, claimCausation, refuseUrlAttribution, statementFor, isEvidenceTier, TIER_A_MDE_MAX, UNDERPOWERED_MDE, } from "./ladder.js";
+export { prePostMde, splitMde, sitePowerBrief, clicksPerArmInWindow, naiveFalseWinProbability, PRE_POST_MDE_28D, PRE_POST_MDE_56D, PRE_POST_MDE_91D, SPLIT_MDE_2K_56D, PEEKING_FP_FIXED, PEEKING_FP_DAILY, FABRICATED_WIN_20, SEARCHPILOT_MIN_SESSIONS, SEMRUSH_MIN_CLICKS_100D, DEFAULT_WINDOW_DAYS, } from "./power.js";
+export { estimateLift, logRatioOfRatios, relativeLift, ciSpansZero, } from "./estimator.js";
+export { suppress, SUPPRESSION_LABEL } from "./suppress.js";
+export { guardPeeking, analysisDateReached, PlannedEndImmutableError } from "./peek.js";
+export { registerExperiment, startExperiment, } from "./register.js";
+export { seedDataAnomalies, getExperiment, listExperiments, listClaims, claimForChange, saveClaim, listCohortUrls, setExperimentStatus, assertPlannedEndImmutable, } from "./persist.js";
+export { analyzeExperiment } from "./analyze.js";
+export { labelAppliedChange, backfillUnlabelledChanges, headline } from "./claims.js";
+export { trackForActionKind, TRACK_A_KINDS, TRACK_B_KINDS, } from "./track.js";
+export { runMeasureJob, monthlyClicksForSite, seriesForUrls, } from "./engine.js";
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/index.js.map

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package/dist/ladder.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+import { DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER, EVIDENCE_MEANING, EVIDENCE_TIERS, type EvidenceTier, type ExperimentDesign } from "./types.js";
+export { EVIDENCE_MEANING, EVIDENCE_TIERS, DEFAULT_EVIDENCE_TIER };
+export type { EvidenceTier };
+/** Realised MDE at or below this is "sufficient power" for tier A. */
+export declare const TIER_A_MDE_MAX = 0.25;
+/** Rule S8: refuse to start a test whose MDE exceeds 40%. */
+export declare const UNDERPOWERED_MDE = 0.4;
+export type LadderInput = {
+    applied: boolean;
+    preRegistered: boolean;
+    design: ExperimentDesign | null;
+    hasControl: boolean;
+    powerOk: boolean;
+    underpowered: boolean;
+    peeking: boolean;
+    suppressed: string[];
+    lift: number | null;
+    realisedMde: number | null;
+    googleUpdateJoined: boolean;
+};
+export type CausationDecision = {
+    allowed: boolean;
+    reason: string;
+};
+export declare function isEvidenceTier(value: string): value is EvidenceTier;
+/**
+ * PLAN Phase 7 ladder. Most rows on agency sites land in E.
+ * Causation is only allowed for A.
+ */
+export declare function assignEvidenceTier(input: LadderInput): EvidenceTier;
+export declare function claimCausation(tier: EvidenceTier): CausationDecision;
+/** Per-URL "this change generated N clicks" must never exist. */
+export declare function refuseUrlAttribution(url: string): never;
+export declare function statementFor(tier: EvidenceTier, opts?: {
+    lift?: number | null | undefined;
+    realisedMde?: number | null | undefined;
+    incidentTitles?: string[] | undefined;
+    monthlyClicks?: number | undefined;
+    neededClicksPerArm?: number | undefined;
+}): string;
+//# sourceMappingURL=ladder.d.ts.map

package/dist/ladder.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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