sapor 0.3.4
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- checksums.yaml +7 -0
- data/Area Class Diagram.dia +0 -0
- data/Area Class Diagram.png +0 -0
- data/Class Diagram.dia +0 -0
- data/Class Diagram.png +0 -0
- data/Example-Catalonia.md +361 -0
- data/Example-Flanders.md +486 -0
- data/Example-Greece.md +25 -0
- data/Example-Oslo.md +678 -0
- data/Example-UnitedKingdom-Referendum.md +132 -0
- data/Examples.md +15 -0
- data/LICENSE +674 -0
- data/README.md +103 -0
- data/Rakefile +18 -0
- data/Technical Documentation.md +14 -0
- data/bin/create_installation_package.sh +49 -0
- data/bin/install.sh +45 -0
- data/bin/sapor.rb +24 -0
- data/bin/sapor.sh +106 -0
- data/data/hu/hungary-2014.txt +1680 -0
- data/data/hu/hungary_2014_screen_scraper.rb +48 -0
- data/data/hu/hungary_2014_to_psv.rb +80 -0
- data/data/hu/index-2014.txt +106 -0
- data/data/pl/2015-gl-lis-okr.csv +42 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv.rb +79 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_ko_and_rsw.rb +94 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_ko_konf_kp_l_and_zp.rb +100 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_ko_sld_and_wi.rb +92 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_sld.rb +84 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_sld_and_wi.rb +85 -0
- data/data/uk/inject_ukip_2015_as_brexit_2019_in_2017.rb +54 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2015.txt +651 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2015_to_psv.rb +104 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017.txt +651 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv.rb +104 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv_with_brexit_and_chuk.rb +113 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv_with_tig.rb +111 -0
- data/lib/sapor.rb +150 -0
- data/lib/sapor/binomials_cache.rb +45 -0
- data/lib/sapor/combinations_distribution.rb +222 -0
- data/lib/sapor/denominators.rb +67 -0
- data/lib/sapor/dichotomies.rb +138 -0
- data/lib/sapor/dichotomy.rb +164 -0
- data/lib/sapor/first_past_the_post.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/largest_remainder.rb +118 -0
- data/lib/sapor/log4r_logger.rb +49 -0
- data/lib/sapor/log_facade.rb +40 -0
- data/lib/sapor/multi_district_leveled_proportional.rb +64 -0
- data/lib/sapor/multi_district_proportional.rb +123 -0
- data/lib/sapor/multi_district_variable_threshold_proportional.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/number_formatter.rb +45 -0
- data/lib/sapor/options.rb +73 -0
- data/lib/sapor/poll.rb +286 -0
- data/lib/sapor/polychotomy.rb +200 -0
- data/lib/sapor/pseudorandom_multirange_enumerator.rb +87 -0
- data/lib/sapor/referendum_polychotomy.rb +165 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/area.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/austria.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-brussels-2014.psv +46 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-brussels-20190526.psv +33 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-flanders-2014.psv +80 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-flanders-20190526.psv +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-wallonia-2014.psv +114 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-wallonia-20190526.psv +93 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium.rb +97 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium_brussels.rb +62 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium_flanders.rb +64 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium_wallonia.rb +63 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2012-2015.psv +100 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2012.psv +87 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2015-jxcat.psv +68 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2015-no-jxsi.psv +68 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2015.psv +63 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-jxcat.rb +109 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-no-jxsi.rb +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia.rb +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618-with-e-and-p.psv +164 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618-with-e.psv +153 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618-with-p.psv +153 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618.psv +142 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark_with_e.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark_with_e_and_p.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark_with_p.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/estonia.rb +88 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-great-britain-20140522-brexit-chuk.psv +172 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-great-britain-20140522.psv +146 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-great-britain-20190523.psv +141 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-ia-ri-sd.psv +64 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-ia-sd.psv +60 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-ia.psv +56 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-sd.psv +56 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014.psv +50 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-20190524-ia.psv +58 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-20190524.psv +52 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_austria.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_croatia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_denmark.rb +77 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_estonia.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_finland.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_ireland.rb +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_ireland_with_ia.rb +97 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_italy.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_netherlands.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_poland.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_romania.rb +78 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_slovakia.rb +80 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_spain.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_sweden.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_austria.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_bulgaria.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_croatia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_cyprus.rb +72 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_czech_republic.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_denmark.rb +77 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_estonia.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_finland.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_flanders.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_france.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_france_2019.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_french_community_of_belgium.rb +73 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_germany.rb +86 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_great_britain.rb +98 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_greece.rb +77 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_hungary.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_ireland.rb +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_ireland_with_ia.rb +97 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_italy.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_latvia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_lithuania.rb +80 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_luxembourg.rb +75 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_malta.rb +71 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_netherlands.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_northern_ireland.rb +75 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_poland.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_portugal.rb +75 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_romania.rb +78 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_slovakia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_slovenia.rb +85 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_spain.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_sweden.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland-20150419-with-sin.psv +224 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland-20150419.psv +212 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland.rb +107 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland_with_sin.rb +107 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/flanders-2014.psv +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/flanders-20190526.psv +87 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/flanders.rb +115 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/france.rb +38 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/greece.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/hungary-2014.psv +2104 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/hungary.rb +116 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland-20161029-midflokkurinn.psv +94 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland-20161029.psv +88 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland-20171028.psv +85 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland.rb +133 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004-kpv-p-par.psv +109 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004-kpv-par.psv +103 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004-kpv.psv +97 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004.psv +89 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia_kpv.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia_kpv_p_par.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia_kpv_par.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/luxembourg-20131020.psv +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/luxembourg.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/netherlands.rb +108 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/norway.rb +425 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/norwegian_municipality.rb +68 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-ko-and-l-without-n-po-r-and-zl.psv +321 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-ko-konf-kp-l-and-zp-without-k-k15-n-pis-po-psl-r-and-zl.psv +280 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-ko-sld-and-wi-without-n-po-and-zl.psv +403 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-sld-and-wi-without-zl.psv +444 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-sld-without-zl.psv +403 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025.psv +403 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland.rb +125 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_ko_and_l_without_n_po_r_and_zl.rb +122 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_ko_konf_kp_l_and_zp_without_k_k15_n_pis_po_psl_r_and_zl.rb +123 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_ko_sld_and_wi_without_n_po_and_zl.rb +125 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_sld_and_wi_without_zl.rb +126 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_sld_without_zl.rb +126 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-and-ch-without-paf.psv +438 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-and-il-without-paf.psv +438 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-ch-and-il-without-paf.psv +461 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-without-paf.psv +415 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-ch-and-il-without-paf.psv +438 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-without-paf.psv +392 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004.psv +370 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal.rb +101 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_and_ch_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_and_il_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_ch_and_il_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_ch_and_il_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/slovakia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/slovenia.rb +114 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/spain-20160626.psv +619 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/spain.rb +136 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/sweden.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/sweden_20140914.rb +89 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-2015.psv +4358 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-brexit-chuk.psv +5154 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-brexit.psv +4521 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-tig.psv +4529 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608.psv +3894 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom.rb +94 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom_with_brexit.rb +110 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom_with_brexit_and_chuk.rb +111 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom_with_tig.rb +111 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/utopia.rb +66 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia-2014.psv +101 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia-20190526.psv +88 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/representatives_polychotomy.rb +338 -0
- data/lib/sapor/single_district_proportional.rb +75 -0
- data/sapor.gemspec +35 -0
- data/spec/integration/area_spec.rb +28 -0
- data/spec/integration/poll_spec.rb +112 -0
- data/spec/integration/sample.poll +8 -0
- data/spec/spec_helper.rb +31 -0
- data/spec/unit/area_spec.rb +115 -0
- data/spec/unit/austria_spec.rb +76 -0
- data/spec/unit/belgium_brussels_spec.rb +58 -0
- data/spec/unit/belgium_flanders_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/belgium_spec.rb +26 -0
- data/spec/unit/belgium_wallonia_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/binomials_cache_spec.rb +34 -0
- data/spec/unit/catalonia_spec.rb +74 -0
- data/spec/unit/combinations_distribution_spec.rb +241 -0
- data/spec/unit/denmark_spec.rb +56 -0
- data/spec/unit/denmark_with_e_and_p_spec.rb +58 -0
- data/spec/unit/denmark_with_e_spec.rb +57 -0
- data/spec/unit/denmark_with_p_spec.rb +57 -0
- data/spec/unit/denominators_spec.rb +40 -0
- data/spec/unit/dichotomies_spec.rb +154 -0
- data/spec/unit/dichotomy_spec.rb +320 -0
- data/spec/unit/estonia_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_austria_spec.rb +61 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_croatia_spec.rb +60 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_denmark_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_estonia_spec.rb +94 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_finland_spec.rb +75 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_ireland_spec.rb +72 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_ireland_with_ia_spec.rb +74 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_italy_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_netherlands_spec.rb +81 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_poland_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_romania_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_slovakia_spec.rb +111 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_spain_spec.rb +130 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_sweden_spec.rb +89 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_austria_spec.rb +61 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_bulgaria_spec.rb +97 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_croatia_spec.rb +59 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_cyprus_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_czech_republic_spec.rb +125 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_denmark_spec.rb +61 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_estonia_spec.rb +93 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_finland_spec.rb +75 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_flanders_spec.rb +56 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_france_2019_spec.rb +73 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_france_spec.rb +73 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_french_community_of_belgium_spec.rb +61 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_germany_spec.rb +90 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_great_britain_spec.rb +87 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_greece_spec.rb +148 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_hungary_spec.rb +57 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_ireland_spec.rb +72 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_ireland_with_ia_spec.rb +74 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_italy_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_latvia_spec.rb +76 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_lithuania_spec.rb +68 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_luxembourg_spec.rb +63 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_malta_spec.rb +60 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_netherlands_spec.rb +81 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_northern_ireland_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_poland_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_portugal_spec.rb +77 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_romania_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_slovakia_spec.rb +111 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_slovenia_spec.rb +77 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_spain_spec.rb +129 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_sweden_spec.rb +89 -0
- data/spec/unit/finland_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/finland_with_sin_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/first_past_the_post_spec.rb +54 -0
- data/spec/unit/flanders_spec.rb +70 -0
- data/spec/unit/france_spec.rb +32 -0
- data/spec/unit/greece_spec.rb +118 -0
- data/spec/unit/hungary_spec.rb +132 -0
- data/spec/unit/iceland_spec.rb +57 -0
- data/spec/unit/largest_remainder_spec.rb +79 -0
- data/spec/unit/latvia_kpv_p_par_spec.rb +38 -0
- data/spec/unit/latvia_kpv_par_spec.rb +38 -0
- data/spec/unit/latvia_kpv_spec.rb +38 -0
- data/spec/unit/latvia_spec.rb +60 -0
- data/spec/unit/luxembourg_spec.rb +54 -0
- data/spec/unit/multi_district_leveled_proportional_spec.rb +49 -0
- data/spec/unit/multi_district_proportional_spec.rb +81 -0
- data/spec/unit/netherlands_spec.rb +107 -0
- data/spec/unit/norway_spec.rb +64 -0
- data/spec/unit/norwegian_municipality_spec.rb +89 -0
- data/spec/unit/number_formatter_spec.rb +173 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_ko_and_l_without_n_po_r_and_zl_spec.rb +60 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_ko_konf_kp_l_and_zp_without_k_k15_n_pis_po_psl_r_and_zl_spec.rb +59 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_ko_sld_and_wi_without_n_po_and_zl_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_sld_and_wi_without_zl_spec.rb +63 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_sld_without_zl_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/poll_spec.rb +110 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_and_ch_without_paf_spec.rb +68 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_and_il_without_paf_spec.rb +68 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_ch_and_il_without_paf_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_without_paf_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_ch_and_il_without_paf_spec.rb +68 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_without_paf_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/pseudorandom_multirange_enumerator_spec.rb +82 -0
- data/spec/unit/referendum_polychotomy_spec.rb +289 -0
- data/spec/unit/representatives_polychotomy_spec.rb +332 -0
- data/spec/unit/slovakia_spec.rb +99 -0
- data/spec/unit/slovenia_spec.rb +80 -0
- data/spec/unit/spain_spec.rb +101 -0
- data/spec/unit/sweden_20140914_spec.rb +112 -0
- data/spec/unit/sweden_spec.rb +113 -0
- data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_with_brexit_and_chuk_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_with_brexit_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_with_tig_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/wallonia_spec.rb +70 -0
- metadata +490 -0
checksums.yaml
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---
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SHA256:
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metadata.gz: c82aca07c944b7856177371f689664504ad1db67bff9151627938bee6e2c4525
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data.tar.gz: bc0b6f05813bad8c204a5058a309416e3b59f08395b88327ac2f15caf90a27ca
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SHA512:
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metadata.gz: 840b5c70a2f624858ff02f96b83309b3513de3767909228fdc98abf39ee7487d69343a97356b9529d08acbada9ba3362d4ebe6ef4e409165b0ca810e23680808
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data.tar.gz: 35e5e6a577ca5c87c82c66fe53f8bbde8a56a39718adc01a1657ace534f0472577257e3f249c4aa3098246fb36446cde9f19c3dd1604b591fd577b1f67f8be82
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Binary file
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Binary file
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data/Class Diagram.dia
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Binary file
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data/Class Diagram.png
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Binary file
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Example: Catalonia
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==================
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The following file is a valid poll file for a Catalan poll. It is based on
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5
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the results of a poll done from 1–3 July 2015 by GAPS for Òmnium Cultural.
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6
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Area=ES-CT
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8
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==
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9
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Junts pel Sí=262
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10
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Catalunya Sí que es Pot=164
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11
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Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía=131
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12
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+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya=74
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13
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+
Partit Popular de Catalunya=74
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14
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+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres=66
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15
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+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya=33
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16
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Other=16
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17
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+
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18
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The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis.
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sapor analyze ÒmniumCultural-GAPS-20150703.poll
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For this file, the log will look like below.
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23
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+
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24
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2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...
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25
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+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
26
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
27
|
+
Junts pel Sí 50.0% 0.0%– 66.7% 100.0%
|
|
28
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
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29
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+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
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30
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
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31
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
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32
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+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
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33
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+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
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34
|
+
Other 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
35
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 33.3%.
|
|
36
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Number of data points: 3.
|
|
37
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
38
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
39
|
+
Junts pel Sí 27.8% 22.2%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
40
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
41
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
42
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
43
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
44
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
45
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
46
|
+
Other 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
47
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 11.1%.
|
|
48
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Number of data points: 9.
|
|
49
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
50
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
51
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.5% 25.9%– 37.0% 100.0%
|
|
52
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.4% 14.8%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
53
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.7% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
|
|
54
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 9.3% 3.7%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
55
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.3% 7.4%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
56
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.3% 7.4%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
57
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 5.6% 3.7%– 7.4% 99.7%
|
|
58
|
+
Other 1.9% 0.0%– 3.7% 0.0%
|
|
59
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.70%.
|
|
60
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Number of data points: 27.
|
|
61
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:06 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
62
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
63
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.5% 28.4%– 35.8% 100.0%
|
|
64
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.4% 17.3%– 23.5% 100.0%
|
|
65
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 15.4% 13.6%– 19.8% 100.0%
|
|
66
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.3% 6.2%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
67
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.3% 6.2%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
68
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.2%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
69
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.3% 2.5%– 6.2% 100.0%
|
|
70
|
+
Other 1.9% 1.2%– 3.7% 11.9%
|
|
71
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:06 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.23%.
|
|
72
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:06 INFO: Number of data points: 81.
|
|
73
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:07 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
74
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
75
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.9% 28.8%– 35.4% 100.0%
|
|
76
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.3%– 23.0% 100.0%
|
|
77
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 15.8% 13.6%– 18.9% 100.0%
|
|
78
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 8.8% 7.0%– 11.5% 100.0%
|
|
79
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 8.8% 7.0%– 11.5% 100.0%
|
|
80
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.2%– 10.3% 100.0%
|
|
81
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 3.9% 2.9%– 5.8% 97.8%
|
|
82
|
+
Other 1.9% 1.2%– 3.3% 5.8%
|
|
83
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:07 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
|
|
84
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:07 INFO: Number of data points: 243.
|
|
85
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:12 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
86
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
87
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.9% 28.8%– 35.3% 100.0%
|
|
88
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.3%– 22.9% 100.0%
|
|
89
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 13.6%– 18.7% 100.0%
|
|
90
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.1%– 11.2% 100.0%
|
|
91
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 7.1%– 11.2% 100.0%
|
|
92
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.3%– 10.2% 100.0%
|
|
93
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 2.9%– 5.6% 95.8%
|
|
94
|
+
Other 2.0% 1.1%– 3.2% 3.9%
|
|
95
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:12 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.137%.
|
|
96
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:12 INFO: Number of data points: 729.
|
|
97
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:25 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
98
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
99
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.9% 28.8%– 35.3% 100.0%
|
|
100
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.4%– 22.9% 100.0%
|
|
101
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 13.6%– 18.7% 100.0%
|
|
102
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.2%– 11.2% 100.0%
|
|
103
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 7.2%– 11.2% 100.0%
|
|
104
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.1% 6.4%– 10.2% 100.0%
|
|
105
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 2.9%– 5.6% 95.7%
|
|
106
|
+
Other 1.9% 1.2%– 3.2% 3.9%
|
|
107
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:25 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
|
|
108
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:25 INFO: Number of data points: 2,187.
|
|
109
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:25 INFO: Analyzing as a polychotomy...
|
|
110
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
111
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
112
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 12.3% 24.4% 24.4%– 24.5% 100.0% 59– 59
|
|
113
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 7.1% 13.8% 13.8%– 13.9% 100.0% 28– 28
|
|
114
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 5.5% 10.4% 10.4%– 10.5% 100.0% 21– 21
|
|
115
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 2.6% 5.0% 5.0%– 5.0% 0.0% 9– 9
|
|
116
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 2.6% 5.0% 5.0%– 5.0% 100.0% 10– 10
|
|
117
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 2.3% 4.3% 4.3%– 4.3% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
118
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 1.6%– 1.6% 0– 0
|
|
119
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
120
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 50.0% 28.7% 28.7%– 28.7% 0.0% 67– 67 0.0%
|
|
121
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 50.0% 24.4% 24.4%– 24.4% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
|
|
122
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 100%.
|
|
123
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: 1 simulations out of 1 data points, 1 / 40,531,767,997,824,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
124
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
125
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
126
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%– 25.5% 100.0% 57– 57
|
|
127
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7%– 14.7% 100.0% 28– 28
|
|
128
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2%– 11.2% 100.0% 21– 21
|
|
129
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5%– 5.6% 100.0% 11– 11
|
|
130
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4%– 5.5% 100.0% 10– 10
|
|
131
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%– 4.6% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
132
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%– 1.6% 0– 0
|
|
133
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
134
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 64.8% 30.1% 29.4%– 30.1% 0.0% 65– 65 0.0%
|
|
135
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 62.6% 25.5% 25.0%– 25.5% 0.0% 57– 57 0.0%
|
|
136
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.05%.
|
|
137
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: 2 simulations out of 2 data points, 1 / 20,265,883,998,912,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
138
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
139
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
140
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6%– 27.6% 100.0% 57– 57
|
|
141
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%– 16.5% 100.0% 28– 28
|
|
142
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 12.8% 12.8% 12.8%– 12.8% 100.0% 21– 21
|
|
143
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%– 6.8% 100.0% 11– 11
|
|
144
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.4%– 6.5% 100.0% 10– 10
|
|
145
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%– 5.3% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
146
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%– 1.7% 0– 0
|
|
147
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
148
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 66.1% 32.8% 32.1%– 32.8% 0.0% 65– 65 0.0%
|
|
149
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 63.5% 27.6% 27.1%– 27.6% 0.0% 57– 57 0.0%
|
|
150
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.10%.
|
|
151
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: 4 simulations out of 4 data points, 1 / 10,132,941,999,456,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
152
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
153
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
154
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.8% 31.8% 31.8%– 31.8% 100.0% 54– 54
|
|
155
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 29– 29
|
|
156
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9%– 15.9% 100.0% 21– 21
|
|
157
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%– 9.1% 100.0% 12– 12
|
|
158
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%– 8.5% 100.0% 11– 11
|
|
159
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%– 6.5% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
160
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 1.9% 0– 0
|
|
161
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
162
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 68.7% 38.3% 37.6%– 38.3% 0.0% 62– 62 0.0%
|
|
163
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 65.8% 31.8% 31.3%– 31.8% 0.0% 54– 54 0.0%
|
|
164
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.21%.
|
|
165
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: 8 simulations out of 8 data points, 1 / 5,066,470,999,728,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
166
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
167
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
168
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 32.9% 100.0% 51– 54
|
|
169
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 20.8% 20.8% 20.2%– 20.8% 100.0% 27– 28
|
|
170
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8%– 16.7% 100.0% 20– 21
|
|
171
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 8.7%– 9.7% 100.0% 12– 12
|
|
172
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 6.6%– 9.0% 94.8% 8– 11
|
|
173
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%– 11.7% 100.0% 9– 17
|
|
174
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 2.7% 0– 0
|
|
175
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
176
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.7% 39.7% 39.3%– 44.4% 0.0% 63– 68 5.2%
|
|
177
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 66.5% 32.9% 32.3%– 32.9% 0.0% 51– 54 0.0%
|
|
178
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.05%.
|
|
179
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: 16 simulations out of 24 data points, 1 / 1,688,823,666,576,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
180
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
181
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
182
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 34.9% 100.0% 51– 57
|
|
183
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 20.8% 20.8% 20.2%– 21.4% 100.0% 27– 28
|
|
184
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8%– 16.7% 100.0% 20– 21
|
|
185
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 8.7%– 9.7% 100.0% 12– 12
|
|
186
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 5.3%– 9.0% 85.4% 6– 11
|
|
187
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%– 11.7% 100.0% 9– 17
|
|
188
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 3.4% 0– 1
|
|
189
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
190
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.7% 39.7% 39.4%– 44.4% 0.0% 63– 68 4.7%
|
|
191
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 33.2% 32.9% 32.8%– 34.9% 0.0% 51– 57 0.0%
|
|
192
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.66%.
|
|
193
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: 32 simulations out of 66 data points, 1 / 614,117,696,936,727 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
194
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
195
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
196
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 34.9% 100.0% 51– 57
|
|
197
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 20.8% 20.8% 20.2%– 21.4% 100.0% 27– 28
|
|
198
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8%– 16.7% 100.0% 20– 21
|
|
199
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 8.7%– 9.7% 98.3% 12– 12
|
|
200
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 5.3%– 9.0% 85.6% 6– 11
|
|
201
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%– 11.7% 100.0% 9– 17
|
|
202
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 3.4% 0– 1
|
|
203
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
204
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.7% 39.7% 39.5%– 44.8% 0.0% 63– 68 4.6%
|
|
205
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 35.3% 0.0% 51– 57 0.0%
|
|
206
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.25%.
|
|
207
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: 64 simulations out of 179 data points, 1 / 226,434,458,088,402 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
208
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
209
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
210
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 34.9% 100.0% 51– 57
|
|
211
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 20.8% 20.8% 20.2%– 21.4% 100.0% 27– 28
|
|
212
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8%– 16.7% 100.0% 20– 21
|
|
213
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 8.7%– 9.7% 98.2% 12– 12
|
|
214
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 5.3%– 9.0% 85.7% 6– 11
|
|
215
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%– 11.7% 100.0% 9– 17
|
|
216
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 3.4% 0– 1
|
|
217
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
218
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.7% 39.7% 39.5%– 44.6% 0.0% 63– 68 4.6%
|
|
219
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 35.1% 0.0% 51– 57 0.0%
|
|
220
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.89%.
|
|
221
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: 128 simulations out of 341 data points, 1 / 118,861,489,729,689 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
222
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:29 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
223
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
224
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.8%– 34.9% 100.0% 47– 56
|
|
225
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 22.5% 22.5% 18.6%– 22.5% 100.0% 24– 30
|
|
226
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.9% 16.9% 16.2%– 17.1% 100.0% 21– 22
|
|
227
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.7%– 11.4% 88.1% 11– 15
|
|
228
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 7.5% 7.5% 7.3%– 9.0% 88.4% 10– 11
|
|
229
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 7.1% 7.1% 6.6%– 11.0% 100.0% 8– 16
|
|
230
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.9%– 4.0% 0– 6
|
|
231
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
232
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 38.0% 38.0% 37.9%– 42.6% 0.0% 57– 65 0.5%
|
|
233
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.8%– 34.9% 0.0% 47– 56 0.0%
|
|
234
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:29 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.06%.
|
|
235
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:29 INFO: 256 simulations out of 695 data points, 1 / 58,319,090,644,351 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
236
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:30 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
237
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
238
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.6% 30.6% 28.8%– 34.6% 100.0% 47– 56
|
|
239
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.1% 19.1% 18.6%– 22.5% 99.8% 24– 30
|
|
240
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 16.2%– 17.6% 100.0% 21– 22
|
|
241
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 10.3% 9.4% 7.7%– 10.3% 93.8% 11– 14
|
|
242
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.5% 7.2% 7.1%– 10.1% 54.6% 9– 13
|
|
243
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 10.8% 10.8% 6.0%– 11.0% 100.0% 8– 16
|
|
244
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.9%– 4.8% 0– 6
|
|
245
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
246
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 36.6% 41.4% 36.6%– 41.4% 0.0% 57– 64 0.1%
|
|
247
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.6% 30.6% 28.8%– 34.6% 0.0% 47– 56 0.0%
|
|
248
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:30 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.75%.
|
|
249
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:30 INFO: 512 simulations out of 1,419 data points, 1 / 28,563,613,811,010 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
250
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:33 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
251
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
252
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.6% 30.6% 28.5%– 34.6% 100.0% 47– 56
|
|
253
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.1% 19.1% 16.4%– 22.5% 96.0% 21– 30
|
|
254
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 12.5%– 17.6% 100.0% 16– 22
|
|
255
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 10.3% 9.4% 7.7%– 11.8% 92.5% 11– 17
|
|
256
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.5% 7.2% 7.1%– 10.7% 54.2% 9– 14
|
|
257
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 10.8% 10.8% 6.0%– 11.0% 100.0% 8– 16
|
|
258
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.2%– 6.3% 0– 8
|
|
259
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
260
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 41.4% 41.4% 36.6%– 41.4% 0.0% 57– 64 0.2%
|
|
261
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.6% 30.6% 28.5%– 34.6% 0.0% 47– 56 0.0%
|
|
262
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:33 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.29%.
|
|
263
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:33 INFO: 1,024 simulations out of 2,830 data points, 1 / 14,322,179,504,531 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
264
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:36 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
265
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
266
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 28.5%– 34.2% 100.0% 45– 55
|
|
267
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9%– 22.5% 56.5% 22– 30
|
|
268
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 19.1% 19.1% 12.7%– 19.2% 100.0% 16– 24
|
|
269
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.7% 7.7% 7.5%– 11.8% 50.7% 9– 17
|
|
270
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 8.8% 8.8% 7.1%– 11.1% 79.2% 9– 14
|
|
271
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 6.0%– 10.8% 100.0% 8– 14
|
|
272
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.9%– 5.8% 0– 7
|
|
273
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
274
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 40.3% 40.3% 36.6%– 43.8% 0.0% 56– 68 2.7%
|
|
275
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 28.5%– 34.2% 0.0% 45– 55 0.0%
|
|
276
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:36 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.20%.
|
|
277
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:36 INFO: 2,048 simulations out of 5,727 data points, 1 / 7,077,312,379,574 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
278
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:41 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
279
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
280
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 27.2%– 34.9% 100.0% 43– 55
|
|
281
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.9% 17.9% 17.5%– 23.1% 68.1% 22– 30
|
|
282
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 19.1% 19.1% 12.7%– 19.2% 100.0% 16– 25
|
|
283
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.7% 7.7% 6.9%– 11.8% 41.7% 9– 17
|
|
284
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 8.8% 8.8% 7.0%– 11.1% 73.4% 9– 14
|
|
285
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 6.0%– 10.8% 99.9% 8– 14
|
|
286
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7%– 5.5% 0– 7
|
|
287
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
288
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 40.7% 40.3% 36.3%– 43.8% 0.0% 55– 66 1.8%
|
|
289
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 27.2%– 34.9% 0.0% 43– 55 0.0%
|
|
290
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:41 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 5.26%.
|
|
291
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:41 INFO: 4,096 simulations out of 11,469 data points, 1 / 3,534,028,075,492 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
292
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:53 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
293
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
294
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.9% 31.9% 28.4%– 35.3% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
295
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.3% 19.3% 16.8%– 23.1% 94.1% 21– 30
|
|
296
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.3% 16.3% 13.5%– 19.2% 100.0% 17– 24
|
|
297
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 7.3%– 10.9% 35.8% 9– 13
|
|
298
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 10.2% 10.2% 7.2%– 11.2% 85.8% 9– 14
|
|
299
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 6.6%– 10.0% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
300
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.8% 4.8% 3.0%– 5.5% 0– 7
|
|
301
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
302
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 38.7% 39.5% 36.5%– 44.5% 0.0% 56– 66 0.5%
|
|
303
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.9% 31.9% 28.4%– 35.3% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
304
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:53 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.79%.
|
|
305
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:53 INFO: 8,192 simulations out of 22,965 data points, 1 / 1,764,936,555,533 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
306
|
+
2015-08-01 09:33:22 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
307
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
308
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.3% 31.3% 28.4%– 35.3% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
309
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.5% 19.5% 17.2%– 22.5% 95.9% 22– 30
|
|
310
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 17.1% 17.1% 13.5%– 18.3% 100.0% 17– 24
|
|
311
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.3% 9.3% 7.5%– 10.9% 18.1% 9– 13
|
|
312
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.4% 9.4% 7.2%– 11.2% 89.8% 9– 14
|
|
313
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.4%– 9.6% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
314
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0%– 5.3% 0– 7
|
|
315
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
316
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.3% 39.3% 36.5%– 44.3% 0.0% 56– 66 0.2%
|
|
317
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.3% 31.3% 28.4%– 35.3% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
318
|
+
2015-08-01 09:33:22 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.37%.
|
|
319
|
+
2015-08-01 09:33:22 INFO: 16,384 simulations out of 45,929 data points, 1 / 882,487,491,515 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
320
|
+
2015-08-01 09:34:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
321
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
322
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.5%– 35.0% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
323
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.9% 19.9% 17.2%– 22.5% 95.7% 22– 30
|
|
324
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 17.1% 16.8% 13.8%– 18.9% 100.0% 18– 24
|
|
325
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 7.3%– 10.9% 42.0% 9– 13
|
|
326
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 7.4%– 11.2% 90.6% 10– 14
|
|
327
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 8.0% 8.1% 6.4%– 9.6% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
328
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0%– 5.3% 0– 7
|
|
329
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
330
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.0% 39.0% 36.5%– 43.7% 0.0% 56– 66 0.2%
|
|
331
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.5%– 35.0% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
332
|
+
2015-08-01 09:34:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
|
|
333
|
+
2015-08-01 09:34:20 INFO: 32,768 simulations out of 91,962 data points, 1 / 440,744,742,369 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
334
|
+
2015-08-01 09:36:09 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
335
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
336
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.7%– 34.7% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
337
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.9% 19.9% 17.2%– 22.5% 96.8% 22– 30
|
|
338
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 17.1% 16.8% 13.5%– 18.7% 100.0% 17– 24
|
|
339
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.3% 7.1%– 10.9% 47.5% 9– 13
|
|
340
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.4% 9.4% 7.5%– 11.1% 85.3% 10– 14
|
|
341
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 8.1% 8.1% 6.4%– 10.0% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
342
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0%– 5.5% 0– 7
|
|
343
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
344
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.0% 39.0% 36.6%– 43.4% 0.0% 56– 66 0.2%
|
|
345
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.7%– 34.7% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
346
|
+
2015-08-01 09:36:09 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
|
|
347
|
+
2015-08-01 09:36:09 INFO: 65,536 simulations out of 183,888 data points, 1 / 220,415,513,779 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
348
|
+
2015-08-01 09:39:49 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
349
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
350
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.8% 30.9% 28.7%– 34.9% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
351
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.8% 19.8% 17.1%– 22.7% 96.6% 22– 30
|
|
352
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.5% 16.5% 13.6%– 18.7% 100.0% 17– 24
|
|
353
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.3% 7.1%– 11.2% 43.7% 9– 14
|
|
354
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.4% 9.4% 7.1%– 11.2% 81.6% 9– 14
|
|
355
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 8.1% 8.1% 6.4%– 10.0% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
356
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 2.9%– 5.5% 0– 7
|
|
357
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
358
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.9% 39.9% 36.5%– 43.1% 0.0% 56– 66 0.6%
|
|
359
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.8% 30.9% 28.7%– 34.9% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
360
|
+
2015-08-01 09:39:49 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.01%.
|
|
361
|
+
2015-08-01 09:39:49 INFO: 131,072 simulations out of 367,802 data points, 1 / 110,199,966,280 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
data/Example-Flanders.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,486 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
Example: Flanders
|
|
2
|
+
=================
|
|
3
|
+
|
|
4
|
+
The following file is a valid poll file for a Flemish poll. It is based on
|
|
5
|
+
the results of a poll conducted between 22 February and 9 March 2016 by TNS
|
|
6
|
+
Media for De Standaard and VRT.
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
Area=BE-VLG
|
|
9
|
+
Type=Election
|
|
10
|
+
==
|
|
11
|
+
N-VA=274
|
|
12
|
+
CD&V=192
|
|
13
|
+
Open Vld=142
|
|
14
|
+
sp.a=148
|
|
15
|
+
Groen=117
|
|
16
|
+
Vlaams Belang=81
|
|
17
|
+
PVDA=40
|
|
18
|
+
Other=11
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis, provided it has
|
|
21
|
+
been saved as 2016-03-09-DeStandaard-VRT.poll.
|
|
22
|
+
|
|
23
|
+
sapor analyze 2016-03-09-DeStandaard-VRT.poll
|
|
24
|
+
|
|
25
|
+
For this file, the log will look like below.
|
|
26
|
+
|
|
27
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...
|
|
28
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
29
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
30
|
+
CD&V 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
31
|
+
Groen 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
32
|
+
N-VA 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
33
|
+
Open Vld 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
34
|
+
PVDA 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
35
|
+
Vlaams Belang 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
36
|
+
sp.a 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
37
|
+
Other 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
38
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 33.3%.
|
|
39
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 3.
|
|
40
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
41
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
42
|
+
N-VA 27.8% 22.2%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
43
|
+
CD&V 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
44
|
+
Groen 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
45
|
+
Open Vld 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
46
|
+
sp.a 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
47
|
+
PVDA 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
48
|
+
Vlaams Belang 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
49
|
+
Other 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
50
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 11.1%.
|
|
51
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 9.
|
|
52
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
53
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
54
|
+
N-VA 27.8% 22.2%– 29.6% 100.0%
|
|
55
|
+
CD&V 20.4% 14.8%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
56
|
+
Groen 13.0% 7.4%– 14.8% 100.0%
|
|
57
|
+
Open Vld 13.0% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
|
|
58
|
+
sp.a 13.0% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
|
|
59
|
+
Vlaams Belang 9.3% 7.4%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
60
|
+
PVDA 5.6% 3.7%– 7.4% 99.9%
|
|
61
|
+
Other 1.9% 0.0%– 3.7% 0.0%
|
|
62
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.70%.
|
|
63
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 27.
|
|
64
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
65
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
66
|
+
N-VA 27.8% 24.7%– 30.9% 100.0%
|
|
67
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.0%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
68
|
+
Open Vld 14.2% 11.1%– 17.3% 100.0%
|
|
69
|
+
sp.a 14.2% 12.3%– 17.3% 100.0%
|
|
70
|
+
Groen 11.7% 9.9%– 14.8% 100.0%
|
|
71
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0%
|
|
72
|
+
PVDA 4.3% 2.5%– 6.2% 5.9%
|
|
73
|
+
Other 0.6% 0.0%– 2.5% 0.0%
|
|
74
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.23%.
|
|
75
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Number of data points: 81.
|
|
76
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:08 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
77
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
78
|
+
N-VA 27.4% 24.3%– 30.5% 100.0%
|
|
79
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.5%– 21.8% 100.0%
|
|
80
|
+
sp.a 14.6% 12.3%– 17.3% 100.0%
|
|
81
|
+
Open Vld 14.2% 11.9%– 16.5% 100.0%
|
|
82
|
+
Groen 11.7% 9.5%– 14.0% 100.0%
|
|
83
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.2%– 10.3% 100.0%
|
|
84
|
+
PVDA 3.9% 2.9%– 5.8% 8.4%
|
|
85
|
+
Other 1.0% 0.4%– 2.1% 0.0%
|
|
86
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:09 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
|
|
87
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:09 INFO: Number of data points: 243.
|
|
88
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:15 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
89
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
90
|
+
N-VA 27.2% 24.6%– 30.2% 100.0%
|
|
91
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.7%– 21.7% 100.0%
|
|
92
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 12.6%– 17.1% 100.0%
|
|
93
|
+
Open Vld 14.2% 12.1%– 16.5% 100.0%
|
|
94
|
+
Groen 11.6% 9.7%– 13.9% 100.0%
|
|
95
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.4%– 10.0% 100.0%
|
|
96
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.9%– 5.5% 8.7%
|
|
97
|
+
Other 1.0% 0.5%– 2.1% 0.0%
|
|
98
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:16 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.137%.
|
|
99
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:16 INFO: Number of data points: 729.
|
|
100
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:37 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
101
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
102
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6%– 30.1% 100.0%
|
|
103
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.8%– 21.7% 100.0%
|
|
104
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 12.7%– 17.1% 100.0%
|
|
105
|
+
Open Vld 14.2% 12.1%– 16.5% 100.0%
|
|
106
|
+
Groen 11.6% 9.8%– 13.8% 100.0%
|
|
107
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.5%– 9.9% 100.0%
|
|
108
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.9%– 5.4% 7.8%
|
|
109
|
+
Other 1.1% 0.6%– 2.0% 0.0%
|
|
110
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:40 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
|
|
111
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:40 INFO: Number of data points: 2,187.
|
|
112
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:43 INFO: Analyzing as a polychotomy...
|
|
113
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
114
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
115
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 10.6% 20.8% 20.8%– 20.9% 100.0% 39– 39
|
|
116
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 6.9% 13.6% 13.6%– 13.6% 100.0% 27– 27
|
|
117
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 5.0% 9.9% 9.9%– 9.9% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
118
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 4.8% 9.4% 9.4%– 9.4% 100.0% 18– 18
|
|
119
|
+
Groen 11.6% 3.7% 7.3% 7.3%– 7.4% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
120
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 2.4% 4.5% 4.5%– 4.6% 100.0% 6– 6
|
|
121
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 0.9% 1.7% 1.7%– 1.7% 0– 0
|
|
122
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
123
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 50.0% 30.8% 30.8%– 30.8% 0.0% 60– 60 0.0%
|
|
124
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 50.0% 34.4% 34.4%– 34.4% 0.0% 66– 66 100.0%
|
|
125
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 50.0% 43.8% 43.8%– 43.8% 0.0% 84– 84 100.0%
|
|
126
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 50.0% 44.3% 44.3%– 44.3% 0.0% 85– 85 100.0%
|
|
127
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 50.0% 23.0% 23.0%– 23.0% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
128
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 50.0% 32.9% 32.9%– 32.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
129
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 50.0% 23.5% 23.5%– 23.5% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
130
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 50.0% 26.6% 26.6%– 26.6% 0.0% 51– 51 0.0%
|
|
131
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 50.0% 25.4% 25.4%– 25.4% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
132
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 50.0% 19.3% 19.3%– 19.3% 0.0% 37– 37 0.0%
|
|
133
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 100%.
|
|
134
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: 1 simulations out of 1 data points, 1 / 24,300,290,385,000,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
135
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
136
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
137
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 22.2% 22.2% 22.1%– 22.2% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
138
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6%– 14.7% 100.0% 27– 27
|
|
139
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%– 10.7% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
140
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%– 10.2% 100.0% 18– 18
|
|
141
|
+
Groen 11.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%– 8.0% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
142
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%– 5.1% 100.0% 7– 7
|
|
143
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%– 1.8% 0– 0
|
|
144
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
145
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 66.0% 33.3% 32.1%– 33.3% 0.0% 60– 60 0.0%
|
|
146
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 67.7% 36.8% 35.6%– 36.8% 0.0% 65– 65 100.0%
|
|
147
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 72.7% 47.0% 45.4%– 47.0% 0.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
148
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 72.9% 47.5% 45.9%– 47.5% 0.0% 84– 84 100.0%
|
|
149
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 61.9% 24.8% 23.9%– 24.8% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
150
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 67.1% 35.6% 34.2%– 35.6% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
151
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 62.1% 25.4% 24.4%– 25.4% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
152
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 63.9% 28.8% 27.7%– 28.8% 0.0% 51– 51 0.0%
|
|
153
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 63.2% 27.2% 26.3%– 27.2% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
154
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 60.2% 20.9% 20.1%– 20.9% 0.0% 37– 37 0.0%
|
|
155
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.33%.
|
|
156
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: 2 simulations out of 2 data points, 1 / 12,150,145,192,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
157
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
158
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
159
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8%– 24.8% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
160
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.8% 16.8% 16.7%– 16.8% 100.0% 25– 25
|
|
161
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 12.5% 12.5% 12.4%– 12.5% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
162
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7%– 11.8% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
163
|
+
Groen 11.6% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%– 9.1% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
164
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0%– 6.1% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
165
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%– 1.9% 0– 0
|
|
166
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
167
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 68.6% 38.3% 37.1%– 38.3% 0.0% 58– 58 0.0%
|
|
168
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 70.1% 41.6% 40.4%– 41.6% 0.0% 63– 63 100.0%
|
|
169
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 76.0% 53.3% 51.7%– 53.3% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
|
|
170
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 76.2% 54.0% 52.4%– 54.0% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
|
|
171
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 63.9% 28.5% 27.6%– 28.5% 0.0% 44– 44 0.0%
|
|
172
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 69.9% 40.9% 39.6%– 40.9% 0.0% 63– 63 100.0%
|
|
173
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 64.1% 29.2% 28.3%– 29.2% 0.0% 44– 44 0.0%
|
|
174
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 66.0% 33.3% 32.2%– 33.3% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
|
|
175
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 64.9% 30.9% 29.9%– 30.9% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
176
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 61.7% 24.2% 23.4%– 24.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
|
|
177
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.65%.
|
|
178
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: 4 simulations out of 4 data points, 1 / 6,075,072,596,250,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
179
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
180
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
181
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
182
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
|
|
183
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
184
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
185
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
186
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
187
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
|
|
188
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
189
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 72.3% 45.9% 44.6%– 45.9% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
|
|
190
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 73.8% 48.7% 47.5%– 48.7% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
191
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 80.5% 62.8% 61.2%– 62.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
192
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 81.2% 63.8% 62.1%– 63.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
193
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.8% 34.0% 33.1%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
194
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 73.8% 49.0% 47.7%– 49.0% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
195
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 67.1% 35.0% 34.0%– 35.0% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
196
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.7% 40.0% 38.9%– 42.4% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
|
|
197
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 68.0% 36.4% 35.9%– 36.4% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
198
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.8% 29.1% 28.3%– 29.4% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
|
|
199
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.98%.
|
|
200
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: 8 simulations out of 14 data points, 1 / 1,735,735,027,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
201
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
202
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
203
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
204
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
|
|
205
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
206
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
207
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
208
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
209
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
|
|
210
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
211
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 45.9% 45.9% 45.7%– 46.0% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
|
|
212
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 48.3% 48.7% 47.5%– 48.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
213
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.6% 62.8% 61.8%– 63.1% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
214
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 64.1% 63.8% 63.2%– 64.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
215
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.0% 34.0% 33.5%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
216
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 49.1% 49.0% 48.3%– 49.7% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
217
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 35.5% 35.0% 35.0%– 35.9% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
218
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.3% 40.0% 39.3%– 41.0% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
|
|
219
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.6% 36.4% 36.2%– 36.7% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
220
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
|
|
221
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.80%.
|
|
222
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: 16 simulations out of 27 data points, 1 / 900,010,755,000,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
223
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
224
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
225
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
226
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
|
|
227
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
228
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
229
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
230
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
231
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
|
|
232
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
233
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 45.9% 45.9% 45.7%– 46.0% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
|
|
234
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 48.7% 48.7% 48.5%– 48.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
235
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.8% 62.8% 62.3%– 63.1% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
236
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 63.9% 63.8% 63.2%– 64.3% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
237
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.0% 34.0% 33.5%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
238
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 49.1% 49.0% 48.8%– 49.6% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
239
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 35.3% 35.0% 35.0%– 35.5% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
240
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.5% 40.0% 40.0%– 40.9% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
|
|
241
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.4% 36.4% 36.2%– 36.6% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
242
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
|
|
243
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.12%.
|
|
244
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: 32 simulations out of 74 data points, 1 / 328,382,302,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
245
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
246
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
247
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 24.6% 100.0% 32– 32
|
|
248
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 22.2% 22.2% 19.9%– 22.3% 99.4% 26– 31
|
|
249
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%– 15.5% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
250
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%– 14.0% 100.0% 18– 18
|
|
251
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.6%– 12.0% 100.0% 15– 16
|
|
252
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%– 7.9% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
253
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%– 2.8% 0– 0
|
|
254
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
255
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 49.6%– 49.6% 0.0% 65– 66 97.6%
|
|
256
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 47.0% 46.8% 46.6%– 47.1% 0.0% 63– 63 99.4%
|
|
257
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.8% 60.8% 60.7%– 60.9% 100.0% 81– 81 100.0%
|
|
258
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.3% 62.3% 62.1%– 62.4% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
|
|
259
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 33.7%– 36.4% 0.0% 45– 49 0.0%
|
|
260
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 52.4% 51.7% 50.8%– 52.8% 97.6% 68– 68 100.0%
|
|
261
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 37.3%– 37.8% 0.0% 50– 50 0.0%
|
|
262
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 41.1% 41.4% 40.7%– 41.5% 0.0% 53– 53 0.0%
|
|
263
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.5% 32.5% 32.4%– 32.6% 0.0% 40– 40 0.0%
|
|
264
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.5% 29.4% 29.4%– 29.6% 0.0% 37– 38 0.0%
|
|
265
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.21%.
|
|
266
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: 64 simulations out of 167 data points, 1 / 145,510,720,868,263 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
267
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
268
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
269
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 26.6% 100.0% 32– 37
|
|
270
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 51.1% 20– 31
|
|
271
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%– 17.9% 100.0% 19– 23
|
|
272
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%– 14.9% 100.0% 18– 19
|
|
273
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 12.0% 100.0% 15– 16
|
|
274
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.3%– 7.9% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
275
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 4.3% 0– 2
|
|
276
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
277
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 58– 66 49.9%
|
|
278
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.9% 46.8% 42.6%– 47.0% 0.2% 57– 63 51.1%
|
|
279
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 57.6% 60.8% 57.5%– 60.9% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
|
|
280
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.3% 62.3% 60.4%– 62.4% 100.0% 80– 82 100.0%
|
|
281
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.9%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
|
|
282
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 48.8%– 51.7% 49.9% 62– 68 51.1%
|
|
283
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 33.9%– 37.8% 0.0% 43– 50 0.0%
|
|
284
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 44.6% 41.4% 41.4%– 44.7% 0.0% 53– 57 0.0%
|
|
285
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.5% 32.5% 32.4%– 34.0% 0.0% 40– 45 0.0%
|
|
286
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.5% 29.4% 29.4%– 32.9% 0.0% 37– 42 0.0%
|
|
287
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 6.13%.
|
|
288
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: 128 simulations out of 336 data points, 1 / 72,322,292,812,500 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
289
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
290
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
291
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
|
|
292
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 56.9% 20– 31
|
|
293
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.1%– 17.9% 95.1% 15– 23
|
|
294
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4%– 14.9% 99.4% 18– 19
|
|
295
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 12.7% 100.0% 15– 17
|
|
296
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.4%– 7.9% 100.0% 6– 8
|
|
297
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
|
|
298
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
299
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 44.7%
|
|
300
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.8% 46.8% 42.6%– 50.8% 4.4% 57– 68 49.8%
|
|
301
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.8% 60.8% 57.5%– 63.9% 100.0% 76– 86 100.0%
|
|
302
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.5% 62.3% 60.4%– 62.8% 100.0% 79– 83 100.0%
|
|
303
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.1%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
|
|
304
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 46.0%– 51.7% 44.0% 59– 68 45.7%
|
|
305
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 33.2%– 37.8% 0.0% 41– 50 0.0%
|
|
306
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 41.4% 41.4% 38.0%– 44.7% 0.0% 50– 57 0.0%
|
|
307
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.4% 32.5% 32.4%– 35.9% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
|
|
308
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 32.8% 29.4% 25.3%– 32.9% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
|
|
309
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.62%.
|
|
310
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: 256 simulations out of 716 data points, 1 / 33,938,953,051,676 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
311
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
312
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
313
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
|
|
314
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 60.5% 20– 31
|
|
315
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.1%– 17.9% 94.5% 15– 23
|
|
316
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4%– 14.9% 98.6% 18– 20
|
|
317
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 13.8% 99.8% 15– 18
|
|
318
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.1%– 7.9% 100.0% 6– 8
|
|
319
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
|
|
320
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
321
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 46.0% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 41.7%
|
|
322
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.8% 46.8% 42.6%– 50.8% 4.0% 56– 68 46.4%
|
|
323
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 57.5% 60.8% 57.5%– 63.9% 100.0% 76– 86 100.0%
|
|
324
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.2% 62.3% 59.6%– 62.8% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
|
|
325
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.1%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
|
|
326
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 46.1%– 51.7% 40.5% 59– 68 42.9%
|
|
327
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 32.3%– 37.8% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
|
|
328
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 44.7% 41.4% 38.0%– 44.7% 0.0% 50– 57 0.0%
|
|
329
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.4% 32.5% 32.4%– 35.9% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
|
|
330
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 32.7% 29.4% 25.4%– 32.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
|
|
331
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.89%.
|
|
332
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: 512 simulations out of 1,433 data points, 1 / 16,957,634,602,233 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
333
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
334
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
335
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.0% 27.0% 23.3%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
|
|
336
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 17.6% 17.6% 16.1%– 22.3% 84.9% 20– 31
|
|
337
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 14.0%– 17.9% 56.6% 18– 23
|
|
338
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 16.3% 16.3% 12.1%– 16.4% 98.8% 15– 22
|
|
339
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.4% 12.4% 10.9%– 13.8% 99.9% 14– 18
|
|
340
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.9% 6.9% 6.1%– 8.8% 100.0% 6– 10
|
|
341
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
|
|
342
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
343
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.1% 44.1% 43.0%– 49.6% 0.0% 54– 66 23.9%
|
|
344
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 44.6% 44.6% 42.6%– 48.7% 1.5% 56– 64 20.7%
|
|
345
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.9% 60.9% 57.5%– 62.0% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
|
|
346
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 58.7% 58.7% 58.7%– 62.9% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
|
|
347
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.8% 34.0% 29.9%– 36.3% 0.0% 38– 49 0.0%
|
|
348
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 48.1% 45.8%– 51.7% 23.6% 58– 68 24.6%
|
|
349
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 31.8% 31.8%– 37.7% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
|
|
350
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 42.9% 42.9% 38.2%– 44.7% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
|
|
351
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 33.8% 33.8% 30.9%– 37.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
352
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.5% 30.5% 26.4%– 32.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
|
|
353
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.62%.
|
|
354
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: 1,024 simulations out of 2,870 data points, 1 / 8,467,000,134,146 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
355
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
356
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
357
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.0% 27.0% 24.6%– 28.3% 100.0% 32– 39
|
|
358
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.5% 19.5% 16.1%– 22.3% 96.7% 20– 31
|
|
359
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.3%– 17.9% 16.7% 16– 23
|
|
360
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.1%– 16.4% 99.6% 15– 22
|
|
361
|
+
Groen 11.6% 11.3% 11.3% 10.9%– 12.7% 97.8% 14– 17
|
|
362
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.9% 9.9% 6.9%– 9.9% 100.0% 7– 11
|
|
363
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.7%– 4.7% 0– 2
|
|
364
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
365
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 44.9% 44.1%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 5.2%
|
|
366
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 46.4% 42.7%– 48.8% 0.4% 57– 66 9.6%
|
|
367
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.7% 60.7% 57.5%– 61.1% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
|
|
368
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 58.7% 60.6% 58.7%– 62.5% 100.0% 77– 82 100.0%
|
|
369
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
|
|
370
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 47.9% 45.1%– 51.7% 5.7% 57– 68 78.4%
|
|
371
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 33.6% 33.6% 31.8%– 37.7% 0.0% 40– 50 0.0%
|
|
372
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 39.7% 37.7%– 44.7% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
|
|
373
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 33.8% 36.8% 32.5%– 37.7% 0.0% 40– 49 0.0%
|
|
374
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 28.4% 24.7%– 32.7% 0.0% 32– 42 0.0%
|
|
375
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.97%.
|
|
376
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: 2,048 simulations out of 5,813 data points, 1 / 4,180,335,521,245 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
377
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
378
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
379
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.8% 25.4% 25.1%– 29.7% 100.0% 33– 39
|
|
380
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 20.1% 20.1% 17.3%– 21.6% 98.8% 21– 28
|
|
381
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.5% 16.8% 13.0%– 16.8% 66.2% 16– 23
|
|
382
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 13.4% 13.4% 12.0%– 16.4% 99.3% 15– 22
|
|
383
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.2% 12.2% 10.9%– 12.6% 99.2% 14– 17
|
|
384
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.2% 7.2% 6.6%– 9.9% 100.0% 7– 11
|
|
385
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.1%– 5.1% 0– 3
|
|
386
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
387
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 49.0% 43.0%– 49.1% 0.0% 56– 63 29.9%
|
|
388
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 45.5% 43.1%– 47.5% 0.1% 56– 63 4.4%
|
|
389
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.9% 59.0% 58.0%– 61.9% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
|
|
390
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.6% 62.3% 57.4%– 63.8% 100.0% 75– 82 100.0%
|
|
391
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.6% 33.5% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 39– 47 0.0%
|
|
392
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 50.3% 46.2%– 50.3% 29.6% 59– 66 57.1%
|
|
393
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 36.9% 31.7%– 36.9% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
394
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 42.4% 38.4%– 43.0% 0.0% 49– 56 0.0%
|
|
395
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 37.1% 32.7% 32.7%– 37.3% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
|
|
396
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 30.2% 27.8%– 30.5% 0.0% 35– 41 0.0%
|
|
397
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.61%.
|
|
398
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: 4,096 simulations out of 11,590 data points, 1 / 2,096,660,084,987 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
399
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
400
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
401
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.8% 25.4% 24.6%– 29.7% 100.0% 32– 40
|
|
402
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 20.1% 19.5% 16.6%– 21.8% 98.8% 20– 29
|
|
403
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.5% 14.2% 11.8%– 17.3% 64.8% 15– 23
|
|
404
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.0%– 16.5% 98.8% 15– 22
|
|
405
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.2% 12.2% 10.4%– 12.8% 99.3% 14– 17
|
|
406
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.2% 7.2% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
|
|
407
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.1%– 5.6% 0– 4
|
|
408
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
409
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 49.0% 41.9%– 49.1% 0.1% 54– 64 22.6%
|
|
410
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 45.5% 43.0%– 49.9% 0.6% 56– 66 13.1%
|
|
411
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.2% 59.0% 57.6%– 62.3% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
|
|
412
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.6% 60.6% 57.4%– 63.9% 100.0% 75– 85 100.0%
|
|
413
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
414
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 50.3% 44.3%– 50.9% 27.6% 57– 66 55.6%
|
|
415
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 36.9% 29.8%– 37.1% 0.0% 37– 48 0.0%
|
|
416
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 42.4% 36.9%– 44.1% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
|
|
417
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 37.1% 32.7% 32.4%– 38.3% 0.0% 40– 49 0.0%
|
|
418
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 30.2% 26.3%– 32.4% 0.0% 34– 43 0.0%
|
|
419
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.38%.
|
|
420
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: 8,192 simulations out of 23,308 data points, 1 / 1,042,572,952,849 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
421
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
422
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
423
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.5%– 30.7% 100.0% 32– 40
|
|
424
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.4% 19.4% 16.6%– 21.6% 99.3% 20– 29
|
|
425
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 14.9% 14.9% 12.0%– 17.3% 74.4% 15– 23
|
|
426
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 13.9% 13.9% 11.8%– 16.4% 98.9% 14– 22
|
|
427
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%– 12.8% 99.6% 14– 17
|
|
428
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.3% 9.3% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
|
|
429
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1%– 5.4% 0– 4
|
|
430
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
431
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 42.5% 44.9% 41.9%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 65 11.5%
|
|
432
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 45.4% 46.7% 43.1%– 49.3% 0.6% 56– 66 17.3%
|
|
433
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 58.7% 60.6% 57.6%– 62.8% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
|
|
434
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.6% 57.6%– 63.8% 100.0% 75– 85 100.0%
|
|
435
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.2% 33.3% 30.4%– 35.8% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
|
|
436
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 48.2% 44.6%– 50.9% 14.8% 57– 67 60.9%
|
|
437
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 34.3% 30.5%– 37.6% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
|
|
438
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 39.3% 37.4%– 43.4% 0.0% 47– 58 0.0%
|
|
439
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.6% 36.6% 32.4%– 38.6% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
440
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 28.8% 26.3%– 32.4% 0.0% 33– 43 0.0%
|
|
441
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.06%.
|
|
442
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: 16,384 simulations out of 46,629 data points, 1 / 521,141,143,602 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
443
|
+
2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
444
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
445
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.6%– 30.7% 100.0% 33– 40
|
|
446
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.1% 19.0% 16.9%– 21.3% 99.7% 21– 28
|
|
447
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.5%– 16.8% 66.4% 15– 22
|
|
448
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.7% 14.7% 12.1%– 16.3% 96.8% 15– 22
|
|
449
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.8%– 13.5% 99.7% 14– 17
|
|
450
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.6%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
|
|
451
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 3.1%– 5.3% 0– 3
|
|
452
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
453
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 42.5% 45.0% 42.5%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 63 5.1%
|
|
454
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.1% 46.4% 43.3%– 49.6% 0.6% 57– 65 13.4%
|
|
455
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 58.7% 61.1% 57.9%– 62.8% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
|
|
456
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.8% 58.2%– 64.1% 100.0% 76– 84 100.0%
|
|
457
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 30.4%– 36.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
458
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 49.2% 45.2%– 50.9% 8.8% 58– 67 71.8%
|
|
459
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 34.5% 34.5% 30.7%– 36.9% 0.0% 39– 48 0.0%
|
|
460
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 40.6% 37.6%– 43.0% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
|
|
461
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 35.5% 35.2% 32.5%– 38.4% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
|
|
462
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.1% 30.1% 26.1%– 31.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
|
|
463
|
+
2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.42%.
|
|
464
|
+
2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: 32,768 simulations out of 93,214 data points, 1 / 260,693,569,475 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
465
|
+
2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
466
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
467
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.6%– 30.4% 100.0% 33– 40
|
|
468
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.1% 19.0% 16.6%– 21.3% 98.8% 21– 28
|
|
469
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.3%– 17.1% 69.6% 15– 23
|
|
470
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.7% 14.7% 12.0%– 16.2% 94.0% 15– 22
|
|
471
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.7%– 13.9% 99.5% 13– 17
|
|
472
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.4%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
|
|
473
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 2.9%– 5.3% 0– 3
|
|
474
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
475
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 46.6% 45.0% 42.5%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 64 6.9%
|
|
476
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.1% 46.4% 42.9%– 49.6% 0.8% 56– 66 12.9%
|
|
477
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 59.0% 61.1% 57.4%– 63.1% 100.0% 75– 84 100.0%
|
|
478
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.8% 57.8%– 64.0% 100.0% 75– 84 100.0%
|
|
479
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 30.4%– 36.4% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
480
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 45.6% 49.2% 44.5%– 51.2% 9.9% 58– 67 57.6%
|
|
481
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 34.5% 34.5% 30.3%– 37.4% 0.0% 39– 48 0.0%
|
|
482
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 40.6% 37.6%– 43.7% 0.0% 48– 58 0.0%
|
|
483
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 35.5% 35.2% 32.5%– 38.4% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
|
|
484
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.1% 30.1% 26.2%– 32.0% 0.0% 33– 43 0.0%
|
|
485
|
+
2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.78%.
|
|
486
|
+
2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: 65,536 simulations out of 187,092 data points, 1 / 129,884,176,688 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|