sapor 0.3.4
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- checksums.yaml +7 -0
- data/Area Class Diagram.dia +0 -0
- data/Area Class Diagram.png +0 -0
- data/Class Diagram.dia +0 -0
- data/Class Diagram.png +0 -0
- data/Example-Catalonia.md +361 -0
- data/Example-Flanders.md +486 -0
- data/Example-Greece.md +25 -0
- data/Example-Oslo.md +678 -0
- data/Example-UnitedKingdom-Referendum.md +132 -0
- data/Examples.md +15 -0
- data/LICENSE +674 -0
- data/README.md +103 -0
- data/Rakefile +18 -0
- data/Technical Documentation.md +14 -0
- data/bin/create_installation_package.sh +49 -0
- data/bin/install.sh +45 -0
- data/bin/sapor.rb +24 -0
- data/bin/sapor.sh +106 -0
- data/data/hu/hungary-2014.txt +1680 -0
- data/data/hu/hungary_2014_screen_scraper.rb +48 -0
- data/data/hu/hungary_2014_to_psv.rb +80 -0
- data/data/hu/index-2014.txt +106 -0
- data/data/pl/2015-gl-lis-okr.csv +42 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv.rb +79 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_ko_and_rsw.rb +94 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_ko_konf_kp_l_and_zp.rb +100 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_ko_sld_and_wi.rb +92 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_sld.rb +84 -0
- data/data/pl/poland_2015_to_psv_with_sld_and_wi.rb +85 -0
- data/data/uk/inject_ukip_2015_as_brexit_2019_in_2017.rb +54 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2015.txt +651 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2015_to_psv.rb +104 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017.txt +651 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv.rb +104 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv_with_brexit_and_chuk.rb +113 -0
- data/data/uk/united_kingdom_2017_to_psv_with_tig.rb +111 -0
- data/lib/sapor.rb +150 -0
- data/lib/sapor/binomials_cache.rb +45 -0
- data/lib/sapor/combinations_distribution.rb +222 -0
- data/lib/sapor/denominators.rb +67 -0
- data/lib/sapor/dichotomies.rb +138 -0
- data/lib/sapor/dichotomy.rb +164 -0
- data/lib/sapor/first_past_the_post.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/largest_remainder.rb +118 -0
- data/lib/sapor/log4r_logger.rb +49 -0
- data/lib/sapor/log_facade.rb +40 -0
- data/lib/sapor/multi_district_leveled_proportional.rb +64 -0
- data/lib/sapor/multi_district_proportional.rb +123 -0
- data/lib/sapor/multi_district_variable_threshold_proportional.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/number_formatter.rb +45 -0
- data/lib/sapor/options.rb +73 -0
- data/lib/sapor/poll.rb +286 -0
- data/lib/sapor/polychotomy.rb +200 -0
- data/lib/sapor/pseudorandom_multirange_enumerator.rb +87 -0
- data/lib/sapor/referendum_polychotomy.rb +165 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/area.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/austria.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-brussels-2014.psv +46 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-brussels-20190526.psv +33 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-flanders-2014.psv +80 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-flanders-20190526.psv +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-wallonia-2014.psv +114 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium-wallonia-20190526.psv +93 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium.rb +97 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium_brussels.rb +62 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium_flanders.rb +64 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/belgium_wallonia.rb +63 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2012-2015.psv +100 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2012.psv +87 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2015-jxcat.psv +68 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2015-no-jxsi.psv +68 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2015.psv +63 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-jxcat.rb +109 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-no-jxsi.rb +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia.rb +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618-with-e-and-p.psv +164 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618-with-e.psv +153 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618-with-p.psv +153 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark-20150618.psv +142 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark_with_e.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark_with_e_and_p.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/denmark_with_p.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/estonia.rb +88 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-great-britain-20140522-brexit-chuk.psv +172 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-great-britain-20140522.psv +146 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-great-britain-20190523.psv +141 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-ia-ri-sd.psv +64 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-ia-sd.psv +60 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-ia.psv +56 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014-sd.psv +56 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-2014.psv +50 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-20190524-ia.psv +58 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european-union-ireland-20190524.psv +52 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_austria.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_croatia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_denmark.rb +77 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_estonia.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_finland.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_ireland.rb +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_ireland_with_ia.rb +97 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_italy.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_netherlands.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_poland.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_romania.rb +78 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_slovakia.rb +80 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_spain.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_27_sweden.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_austria.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_bulgaria.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_croatia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_cyprus.rb +72 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_czech_republic.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_denmark.rb +77 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_estonia.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_finland.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_flanders.rb +74 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_france.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_france_2019.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_french_community_of_belgium.rb +73 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_germany.rb +86 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_great_britain.rb +98 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_greece.rb +77 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_hungary.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_ireland.rb +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_ireland_with_ia.rb +97 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_italy.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_latvia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_lithuania.rb +80 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_luxembourg.rb +75 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_malta.rb +71 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_netherlands.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_northern_ireland.rb +75 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_poland.rb +84 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_portugal.rb +75 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_romania.rb +78 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_slovakia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_slovenia.rb +85 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_spain.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/european_union_sweden.rb +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland-20150419-with-sin.psv +224 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland-20150419.psv +212 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland.rb +107 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/finland_with_sin.rb +107 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/flanders-2014.psv +96 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/flanders-20190526.psv +87 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/flanders.rb +115 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/france.rb +38 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/greece.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/hungary-2014.psv +2104 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/hungary.rb +116 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland-20161029-midflokkurinn.psv +94 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland-20161029.psv +88 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland-20171028.psv +85 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/iceland.rb +133 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004-kpv-p-par.psv +109 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004-kpv-par.psv +103 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004-kpv.psv +97 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia-20141004.psv +89 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia_kpv.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia_kpv_p_par.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/latvia_kpv_par.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/luxembourg-20131020.psv +76 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/luxembourg.rb +82 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/netherlands.rb +108 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/norway.rb +425 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/norwegian_municipality.rb +68 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-ko-and-l-without-n-po-r-and-zl.psv +321 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-ko-konf-kp-l-and-zp-without-k-k15-n-pis-po-psl-r-and-zl.psv +280 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-ko-sld-and-wi-without-n-po-and-zl.psv +403 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-sld-and-wi-without-zl.psv +444 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025-with-sld-without-zl.psv +403 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland-20151025.psv +403 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland.rb +125 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_ko_and_l_without_n_po_r_and_zl.rb +122 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_ko_konf_kp_l_and_zp_without_k_k15_n_pis_po_psl_r_and_zl.rb +123 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_ko_sld_and_wi_without_n_po_and_zl.rb +125 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_sld_and_wi_without_zl.rb +126 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/poland_with_sld_without_zl.rb +126 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-and-ch-without-paf.psv +438 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-and-il-without-paf.psv +438 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-ch-and-il-without-paf.psv +461 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-a-without-paf.psv +415 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-with-ch-and-il-without-paf.psv +438 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004-without-paf.psv +392 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal-20151004.psv +370 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal.rb +101 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_and_ch_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_and_il_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_ch_and_il_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_a_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_with_ch_and_il_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/portugal_without_paf.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/slovakia.rb +81 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/slovenia.rb +114 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/spain-20160626.psv +619 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/spain.rb +136 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/sweden.rb +92 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/sweden_20140914.rb +89 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-2015.psv +4358 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-brexit-chuk.psv +5154 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-brexit.psv +4521 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608-tig.psv +4529 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom-20170608.psv +3894 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom.rb +94 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom_with_brexit.rb +110 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom_with_brexit_and_chuk.rb +111 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom_with_tig.rb +111 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/utopia.rb +66 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia-2014.psv +101 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia-20190526.psv +88 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia.rb +112 -0
- data/lib/sapor/representatives_polychotomy.rb +338 -0
- data/lib/sapor/single_district_proportional.rb +75 -0
- data/sapor.gemspec +35 -0
- data/spec/integration/area_spec.rb +28 -0
- data/spec/integration/poll_spec.rb +112 -0
- data/spec/integration/sample.poll +8 -0
- data/spec/spec_helper.rb +31 -0
- data/spec/unit/area_spec.rb +115 -0
- data/spec/unit/austria_spec.rb +76 -0
- data/spec/unit/belgium_brussels_spec.rb +58 -0
- data/spec/unit/belgium_flanders_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/belgium_spec.rb +26 -0
- data/spec/unit/belgium_wallonia_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/binomials_cache_spec.rb +34 -0
- data/spec/unit/catalonia_spec.rb +74 -0
- data/spec/unit/combinations_distribution_spec.rb +241 -0
- data/spec/unit/denmark_spec.rb +56 -0
- data/spec/unit/denmark_with_e_and_p_spec.rb +58 -0
- data/spec/unit/denmark_with_e_spec.rb +57 -0
- data/spec/unit/denmark_with_p_spec.rb +57 -0
- data/spec/unit/denominators_spec.rb +40 -0
- data/spec/unit/dichotomies_spec.rb +154 -0
- data/spec/unit/dichotomy_spec.rb +320 -0
- data/spec/unit/estonia_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_austria_spec.rb +61 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_croatia_spec.rb +60 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_denmark_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_estonia_spec.rb +94 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_finland_spec.rb +75 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_ireland_spec.rb +72 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_ireland_with_ia_spec.rb +74 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_italy_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_netherlands_spec.rb +81 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_poland_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_romania_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_slovakia_spec.rb +111 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_spain_spec.rb +130 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_27_sweden_spec.rb +89 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_austria_spec.rb +61 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_bulgaria_spec.rb +97 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_croatia_spec.rb +59 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_cyprus_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_czech_republic_spec.rb +125 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_denmark_spec.rb +61 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_estonia_spec.rb +93 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_finland_spec.rb +75 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_flanders_spec.rb +56 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_france_2019_spec.rb +73 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_france_spec.rb +73 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_french_community_of_belgium_spec.rb +61 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_germany_spec.rb +90 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_great_britain_spec.rb +87 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_greece_spec.rb +148 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_hungary_spec.rb +57 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_ireland_spec.rb +72 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_ireland_with_ia_spec.rb +74 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_italy_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_latvia_spec.rb +76 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_lithuania_spec.rb +68 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_luxembourg_spec.rb +63 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_malta_spec.rb +60 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_netherlands_spec.rb +81 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_northern_ireland_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_poland_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_portugal_spec.rb +77 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_romania_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_slovakia_spec.rb +111 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_slovenia_spec.rb +77 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_spain_spec.rb +129 -0
- data/spec/unit/european_union_sweden_spec.rb +89 -0
- data/spec/unit/finland_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/finland_with_sin_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/first_past_the_post_spec.rb +54 -0
- data/spec/unit/flanders_spec.rb +70 -0
- data/spec/unit/france_spec.rb +32 -0
- data/spec/unit/greece_spec.rb +118 -0
- data/spec/unit/hungary_spec.rb +132 -0
- data/spec/unit/iceland_spec.rb +57 -0
- data/spec/unit/largest_remainder_spec.rb +79 -0
- data/spec/unit/latvia_kpv_p_par_spec.rb +38 -0
- data/spec/unit/latvia_kpv_par_spec.rb +38 -0
- data/spec/unit/latvia_kpv_spec.rb +38 -0
- data/spec/unit/latvia_spec.rb +60 -0
- data/spec/unit/luxembourg_spec.rb +54 -0
- data/spec/unit/multi_district_leveled_proportional_spec.rb +49 -0
- data/spec/unit/multi_district_proportional_spec.rb +81 -0
- data/spec/unit/netherlands_spec.rb +107 -0
- data/spec/unit/norway_spec.rb +64 -0
- data/spec/unit/norwegian_municipality_spec.rb +89 -0
- data/spec/unit/number_formatter_spec.rb +173 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_ko_and_l_without_n_po_r_and_zl_spec.rb +60 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_ko_konf_kp_l_and_zp_without_k_k15_n_pis_po_psl_r_and_zl_spec.rb +59 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_ko_sld_and_wi_without_n_po_and_zl_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_sld_and_wi_without_zl_spec.rb +63 -0
- data/spec/unit/poland_with_sld_without_zl_spec.rb +62 -0
- data/spec/unit/poll_spec.rb +110 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_and_ch_without_paf_spec.rb +68 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_and_il_without_paf_spec.rb +68 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_ch_and_il_without_paf_spec.rb +69 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_a_without_paf_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_with_ch_and_il_without_paf_spec.rb +68 -0
- data/spec/unit/portugal_without_paf_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/pseudorandom_multirange_enumerator_spec.rb +82 -0
- data/spec/unit/referendum_polychotomy_spec.rb +289 -0
- data/spec/unit/representatives_polychotomy_spec.rb +332 -0
- data/spec/unit/slovakia_spec.rb +99 -0
- data/spec/unit/slovenia_spec.rb +80 -0
- data/spec/unit/spain_spec.rb +101 -0
- data/spec/unit/sweden_20140914_spec.rb +112 -0
- data/spec/unit/sweden_spec.rb +113 -0
- data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_spec.rb +65 -0
- data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_with_brexit_and_chuk_spec.rb +67 -0
- data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_with_brexit_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/united_kingdom_with_tig_spec.rb +66 -0
- data/spec/unit/wallonia_spec.rb +70 -0
- metadata +490 -0
checksums.yaml
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---
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SHA256:
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metadata.gz: c82aca07c944b7856177371f689664504ad1db67bff9151627938bee6e2c4525
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data.tar.gz: bc0b6f05813bad8c204a5058a309416e3b59f08395b88327ac2f15caf90a27ca
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SHA512:
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metadata.gz: 840b5c70a2f624858ff02f96b83309b3513de3767909228fdc98abf39ee7487d69343a97356b9529d08acbada9ba3362d4ebe6ef4e409165b0ca810e23680808
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data.tar.gz: 35e5e6a577ca5c87c82c66fe53f8bbde8a56a39718adc01a1657ace534f0472577257e3f249c4aa3098246fb36446cde9f19c3dd1604b591fd577b1f67f8be82
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Binary file
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Binary file
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data/Class Diagram.dia
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Binary file
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data/Class Diagram.png
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Binary file
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Example: Catalonia
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==================
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The following file is a valid poll file for a Catalan poll. It is based on
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5
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the results of a poll done from 1–3 July 2015 by GAPS for Òmnium Cultural.
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6
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Area=ES-CT
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8
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==
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9
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Junts pel Sí=262
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10
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Catalunya Sí que es Pot=164
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11
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+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía=131
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12
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+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya=74
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13
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+
Partit Popular de Catalunya=74
|
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14
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+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres=66
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15
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+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya=33
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16
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Other=16
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17
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+
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18
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The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis.
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sapor analyze ÒmniumCultural-GAPS-20150703.poll
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For this file, the log will look like below.
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23
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+
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24
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+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...
|
|
25
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
26
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
27
|
+
Junts pel Sí 50.0% 0.0%– 66.7% 100.0%
|
|
28
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
29
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
30
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
31
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
32
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
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33
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
34
|
+
Other 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
35
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 33.3%.
|
|
36
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Number of data points: 3.
|
|
37
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
38
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
39
|
+
Junts pel Sí 27.8% 22.2%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
40
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
41
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
42
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
43
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
44
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
45
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
46
|
+
Other 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
47
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 11.1%.
|
|
48
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Number of data points: 9.
|
|
49
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
50
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
51
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.5% 25.9%– 37.0% 100.0%
|
|
52
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.4% 14.8%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
53
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.7% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
|
|
54
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 9.3% 3.7%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
55
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.3% 7.4%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
56
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.3% 7.4%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
57
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 5.6% 3.7%– 7.4% 99.7%
|
|
58
|
+
Other 1.9% 0.0%– 3.7% 0.0%
|
|
59
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.70%.
|
|
60
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:05 INFO: Number of data points: 27.
|
|
61
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:06 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
62
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
63
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.5% 28.4%– 35.8% 100.0%
|
|
64
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.4% 17.3%– 23.5% 100.0%
|
|
65
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 15.4% 13.6%– 19.8% 100.0%
|
|
66
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.3% 6.2%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
67
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.3% 6.2%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
68
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.2%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
69
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.3% 2.5%– 6.2% 100.0%
|
|
70
|
+
Other 1.9% 1.2%– 3.7% 11.9%
|
|
71
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:06 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.23%.
|
|
72
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:06 INFO: Number of data points: 81.
|
|
73
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:07 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
74
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
75
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.9% 28.8%– 35.4% 100.0%
|
|
76
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.3%– 23.0% 100.0%
|
|
77
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 15.8% 13.6%– 18.9% 100.0%
|
|
78
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 8.8% 7.0%– 11.5% 100.0%
|
|
79
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 8.8% 7.0%– 11.5% 100.0%
|
|
80
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.2%– 10.3% 100.0%
|
|
81
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 3.9% 2.9%– 5.8% 97.8%
|
|
82
|
+
Other 1.9% 1.2%– 3.3% 5.8%
|
|
83
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:07 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
|
|
84
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:07 INFO: Number of data points: 243.
|
|
85
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:12 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
86
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
87
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.9% 28.8%– 35.3% 100.0%
|
|
88
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.3%– 22.9% 100.0%
|
|
89
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 13.6%– 18.7% 100.0%
|
|
90
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.1%– 11.2% 100.0%
|
|
91
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 7.1%– 11.2% 100.0%
|
|
92
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.3%– 10.2% 100.0%
|
|
93
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 2.9%– 5.6% 95.8%
|
|
94
|
+
Other 2.0% 1.1%– 3.2% 3.9%
|
|
95
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:12 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.137%.
|
|
96
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:12 INFO: Number of data points: 729.
|
|
97
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:25 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
98
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥3%)
|
|
99
|
+
Junts pel Sí 31.9% 28.8%– 35.3% 100.0%
|
|
100
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.4%– 22.9% 100.0%
|
|
101
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 13.6%– 18.7% 100.0%
|
|
102
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.2%– 11.2% 100.0%
|
|
103
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 7.2%– 11.2% 100.0%
|
|
104
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.1% 6.4%– 10.2% 100.0%
|
|
105
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 2.9%– 5.6% 95.7%
|
|
106
|
+
Other 1.9% 1.2%– 3.2% 3.9%
|
|
107
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:25 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
|
|
108
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:25 INFO: Number of data points: 2,187.
|
|
109
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:25 INFO: Analyzing as a polychotomy...
|
|
110
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
111
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
112
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 12.3% 24.4% 24.4%– 24.5% 100.0% 59– 59
|
|
113
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 7.1% 13.8% 13.8%– 13.9% 100.0% 28– 28
|
|
114
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 5.5% 10.4% 10.4%– 10.5% 100.0% 21– 21
|
|
115
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 2.6% 5.0% 5.0%– 5.0% 0.0% 9– 9
|
|
116
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 2.6% 5.0% 5.0%– 5.0% 100.0% 10– 10
|
|
117
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 2.3% 4.3% 4.3%– 4.3% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
118
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 1.6%– 1.6% 0– 0
|
|
119
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
120
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 50.0% 28.7% 28.7%– 28.7% 0.0% 67– 67 0.0%
|
|
121
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 50.0% 24.4% 24.4%– 24.4% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
|
|
122
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 100%.
|
|
123
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: 1 simulations out of 1 data points, 1 / 40,531,767,997,824,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
124
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
125
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
126
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%– 25.5% 100.0% 57– 57
|
|
127
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7%– 14.7% 100.0% 28– 28
|
|
128
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2%– 11.2% 100.0% 21– 21
|
|
129
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5%– 5.6% 100.0% 11– 11
|
|
130
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4%– 5.5% 100.0% 10– 10
|
|
131
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%– 4.6% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
132
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%– 1.6% 0– 0
|
|
133
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
134
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 64.8% 30.1% 29.4%– 30.1% 0.0% 65– 65 0.0%
|
|
135
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 62.6% 25.5% 25.0%– 25.5% 0.0% 57– 57 0.0%
|
|
136
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.05%.
|
|
137
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: 2 simulations out of 2 data points, 1 / 20,265,883,998,912,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
138
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
139
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
140
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6%– 27.6% 100.0% 57– 57
|
|
141
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%– 16.5% 100.0% 28– 28
|
|
142
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 12.8% 12.8% 12.8%– 12.8% 100.0% 21– 21
|
|
143
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%– 6.8% 100.0% 11– 11
|
|
144
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.4%– 6.5% 100.0% 10– 10
|
|
145
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%– 5.3% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
146
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%– 1.7% 0– 0
|
|
147
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
148
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 66.1% 32.8% 32.1%– 32.8% 0.0% 65– 65 0.0%
|
|
149
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 63.5% 27.6% 27.1%– 27.6% 0.0% 57– 57 0.0%
|
|
150
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.10%.
|
|
151
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:26 INFO: 4 simulations out of 4 data points, 1 / 10,132,941,999,456,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
152
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
153
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
154
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.8% 31.8% 31.8%– 31.8% 100.0% 54– 54
|
|
155
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 29– 29
|
|
156
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9%– 15.9% 100.0% 21– 21
|
|
157
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%– 9.1% 100.0% 12– 12
|
|
158
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%– 8.5% 100.0% 11– 11
|
|
159
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%– 6.5% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
160
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 1.9% 0– 0
|
|
161
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
162
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 68.7% 38.3% 37.6%– 38.3% 0.0% 62– 62 0.0%
|
|
163
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 65.8% 31.8% 31.3%– 31.8% 0.0% 54– 54 0.0%
|
|
164
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.21%.
|
|
165
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: 8 simulations out of 8 data points, 1 / 5,066,470,999,728,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
166
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
167
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
168
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 32.9% 100.0% 51– 54
|
|
169
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 20.8% 20.8% 20.2%– 20.8% 100.0% 27– 28
|
|
170
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8%– 16.7% 100.0% 20– 21
|
|
171
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 8.7%– 9.7% 100.0% 12– 12
|
|
172
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 6.6%– 9.0% 94.8% 8– 11
|
|
173
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%– 11.7% 100.0% 9– 17
|
|
174
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 2.7% 0– 0
|
|
175
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
176
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.7% 39.7% 39.3%– 44.4% 0.0% 63– 68 5.2%
|
|
177
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 66.5% 32.9% 32.3%– 32.9% 0.0% 51– 54 0.0%
|
|
178
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.05%.
|
|
179
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: 16 simulations out of 24 data points, 1 / 1,688,823,666,576,000 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
180
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
181
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
182
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 34.9% 100.0% 51– 57
|
|
183
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 20.8% 20.8% 20.2%– 21.4% 100.0% 27– 28
|
|
184
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8%– 16.7% 100.0% 20– 21
|
|
185
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 8.7%– 9.7% 100.0% 12– 12
|
|
186
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 5.3%– 9.0% 85.4% 6– 11
|
|
187
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%– 11.7% 100.0% 9– 17
|
|
188
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 3.4% 0– 1
|
|
189
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
190
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.7% 39.7% 39.4%– 44.4% 0.0% 63– 68 4.7%
|
|
191
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 33.2% 32.9% 32.8%– 34.9% 0.0% 51– 57 0.0%
|
|
192
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.66%.
|
|
193
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:27 INFO: 32 simulations out of 66 data points, 1 / 614,117,696,936,727 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
194
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
195
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
196
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 34.9% 100.0% 51– 57
|
|
197
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 20.8% 20.8% 20.2%– 21.4% 100.0% 27– 28
|
|
198
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8%– 16.7% 100.0% 20– 21
|
|
199
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 8.7%– 9.7% 98.3% 12– 12
|
|
200
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 5.3%– 9.0% 85.6% 6– 11
|
|
201
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%– 11.7% 100.0% 9– 17
|
|
202
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 3.4% 0– 1
|
|
203
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
204
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.7% 39.7% 39.5%– 44.8% 0.0% 63– 68 4.6%
|
|
205
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 35.3% 0.0% 51– 57 0.0%
|
|
206
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.25%.
|
|
207
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: 64 simulations out of 179 data points, 1 / 226,434,458,088,402 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
208
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
209
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
210
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 34.9% 100.0% 51– 57
|
|
211
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 20.8% 20.8% 20.2%– 21.4% 100.0% 27– 28
|
|
212
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8%– 16.7% 100.0% 20– 21
|
|
213
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 8.7%– 9.7% 98.2% 12– 12
|
|
214
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 5.3%– 9.0% 85.7% 6– 11
|
|
215
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%– 11.7% 100.0% 9– 17
|
|
216
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%– 3.4% 0– 1
|
|
217
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
218
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.7% 39.7% 39.5%– 44.6% 0.0% 63– 68 4.6%
|
|
219
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.8%– 35.1% 0.0% 51– 57 0.0%
|
|
220
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.89%.
|
|
221
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:28 INFO: 128 simulations out of 341 data points, 1 / 118,861,489,729,689 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
222
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:29 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
223
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
224
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.8%– 34.9% 100.0% 47– 56
|
|
225
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 22.5% 22.5% 18.6%– 22.5% 100.0% 24– 30
|
|
226
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.9% 16.9% 16.2%– 17.1% 100.0% 21– 22
|
|
227
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.7%– 11.4% 88.1% 11– 15
|
|
228
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 7.5% 7.5% 7.3%– 9.0% 88.4% 10– 11
|
|
229
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 7.1% 7.1% 6.6%– 11.0% 100.0% 8– 16
|
|
230
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.9%– 4.0% 0– 6
|
|
231
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
232
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 38.0% 38.0% 37.9%– 42.6% 0.0% 57– 65 0.5%
|
|
233
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.8%– 34.9% 0.0% 47– 56 0.0%
|
|
234
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:29 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.06%.
|
|
235
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:29 INFO: 256 simulations out of 695 data points, 1 / 58,319,090,644,351 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
236
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:30 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
237
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
238
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.6% 30.6% 28.8%– 34.6% 100.0% 47– 56
|
|
239
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.1% 19.1% 18.6%– 22.5% 99.8% 24– 30
|
|
240
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 16.2%– 17.6% 100.0% 21– 22
|
|
241
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 10.3% 9.4% 7.7%– 10.3% 93.8% 11– 14
|
|
242
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.5% 7.2% 7.1%– 10.1% 54.6% 9– 13
|
|
243
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 10.8% 10.8% 6.0%– 11.0% 100.0% 8– 16
|
|
244
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.9%– 4.8% 0– 6
|
|
245
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
246
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 36.6% 41.4% 36.6%– 41.4% 0.0% 57– 64 0.1%
|
|
247
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.6% 30.6% 28.8%– 34.6% 0.0% 47– 56 0.0%
|
|
248
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:30 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.75%.
|
|
249
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:30 INFO: 512 simulations out of 1,419 data points, 1 / 28,563,613,811,010 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
250
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:33 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
251
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
252
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.6% 30.6% 28.5%– 34.6% 100.0% 47– 56
|
|
253
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.1% 19.1% 16.4%– 22.5% 96.0% 21– 30
|
|
254
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.7% 16.7% 12.5%– 17.6% 100.0% 16– 22
|
|
255
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 10.3% 9.4% 7.7%– 11.8% 92.5% 11– 17
|
|
256
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.5% 7.2% 7.1%– 10.7% 54.2% 9– 14
|
|
257
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 10.8% 10.8% 6.0%– 11.0% 100.0% 8– 16
|
|
258
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.2%– 6.3% 0– 8
|
|
259
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
260
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 41.4% 41.4% 36.6%– 41.4% 0.0% 57– 64 0.2%
|
|
261
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.6% 30.6% 28.5%– 34.6% 0.0% 47– 56 0.0%
|
|
262
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:33 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.29%.
|
|
263
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:33 INFO: 1,024 simulations out of 2,830 data points, 1 / 14,322,179,504,531 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
264
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:36 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
265
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
266
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 28.5%– 34.2% 100.0% 45– 55
|
|
267
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9%– 22.5% 56.5% 22– 30
|
|
268
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 19.1% 19.1% 12.7%– 19.2% 100.0% 16– 24
|
|
269
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.7% 7.7% 7.5%– 11.8% 50.7% 9– 17
|
|
270
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 8.8% 8.8% 7.1%– 11.1% 79.2% 9– 14
|
|
271
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 6.0%– 10.8% 100.0% 8– 14
|
|
272
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.9%– 5.8% 0– 7
|
|
273
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
274
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 40.3% 40.3% 36.6%– 43.8% 0.0% 56– 68 2.7%
|
|
275
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 28.5%– 34.2% 0.0% 45– 55 0.0%
|
|
276
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:36 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.20%.
|
|
277
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:36 INFO: 2,048 simulations out of 5,727 data points, 1 / 7,077,312,379,574 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
278
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:41 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
279
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
280
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 27.2%– 34.9% 100.0% 43– 55
|
|
281
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 17.9% 17.9% 17.5%– 23.1% 68.1% 22– 30
|
|
282
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 19.1% 19.1% 12.7%– 19.2% 100.0% 16– 25
|
|
283
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 7.7% 7.7% 6.9%– 11.8% 41.7% 9– 17
|
|
284
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 8.8% 8.8% 7.0%– 11.1% 73.4% 9– 14
|
|
285
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 6.0%– 10.8% 99.9% 8– 14
|
|
286
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7%– 5.5% 0– 7
|
|
287
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
288
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 40.7% 40.3% 36.3%– 43.8% 0.0% 55– 66 1.8%
|
|
289
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 27.2%– 34.9% 0.0% 43– 55 0.0%
|
|
290
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:41 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 5.26%.
|
|
291
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:41 INFO: 4,096 simulations out of 11,469 data points, 1 / 3,534,028,075,492 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
292
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:53 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
293
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
294
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.9% 31.9% 28.4%– 35.3% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
295
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.3% 19.3% 16.8%– 23.1% 94.1% 21– 30
|
|
296
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.3% 16.3% 13.5%– 19.2% 100.0% 17– 24
|
|
297
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 7.3%– 10.9% 35.8% 9– 13
|
|
298
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 10.2% 10.2% 7.2%– 11.2% 85.8% 9– 14
|
|
299
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 6.6%– 10.0% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
300
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 4.8% 4.8% 3.0%– 5.5% 0– 7
|
|
301
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
302
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 38.7% 39.5% 36.5%– 44.5% 0.0% 56– 66 0.5%
|
|
303
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.9% 31.9% 28.4%– 35.3% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
304
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:53 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.79%.
|
|
305
|
+
2015-08-01 09:32:53 INFO: 8,192 simulations out of 22,965 data points, 1 / 1,764,936,555,533 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
306
|
+
2015-08-01 09:33:22 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
307
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
308
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.3% 31.3% 28.4%– 35.3% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
309
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.5% 19.5% 17.2%– 22.5% 95.9% 22– 30
|
|
310
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 17.1% 17.1% 13.5%– 18.3% 100.0% 17– 24
|
|
311
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.3% 9.3% 7.5%– 10.9% 18.1% 9– 13
|
|
312
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.4% 9.4% 7.2%– 11.2% 89.8% 9– 14
|
|
313
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.4%– 9.6% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
314
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0%– 5.3% 0– 7
|
|
315
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
316
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.3% 39.3% 36.5%– 44.3% 0.0% 56– 66 0.2%
|
|
317
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.3% 31.3% 28.4%– 35.3% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
318
|
+
2015-08-01 09:33:22 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.37%.
|
|
319
|
+
2015-08-01 09:33:22 INFO: 16,384 simulations out of 45,929 data points, 1 / 882,487,491,515 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
320
|
+
2015-08-01 09:34:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
321
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
322
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.5%– 35.0% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
323
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.9% 19.9% 17.2%– 22.5% 95.7% 22– 30
|
|
324
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 17.1% 16.8% 13.8%– 18.9% 100.0% 18– 24
|
|
325
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 7.3%– 10.9% 42.0% 9– 13
|
|
326
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 7.4%– 11.2% 90.6% 10– 14
|
|
327
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 8.0% 8.1% 6.4%– 9.6% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
328
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0%– 5.3% 0– 7
|
|
329
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
330
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.0% 39.0% 36.5%– 43.7% 0.0% 56– 66 0.2%
|
|
331
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.5%– 35.0% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
332
|
+
2015-08-01 09:34:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
|
|
333
|
+
2015-08-01 09:34:20 INFO: 32,768 simulations out of 91,962 data points, 1 / 440,744,742,369 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
334
|
+
2015-08-01 09:36:09 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
335
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
336
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.7%– 34.7% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
337
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.9% 19.9% 17.2%– 22.5% 96.8% 22– 30
|
|
338
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 17.1% 16.8% 13.5%– 18.7% 100.0% 17– 24
|
|
339
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.3% 7.1%– 10.9% 47.5% 9– 13
|
|
340
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.4% 9.4% 7.5%– 11.1% 85.3% 10– 14
|
|
341
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 8.1% 8.1% 6.4%– 10.0% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
342
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0%– 5.5% 0– 7
|
|
343
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
344
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.0% 39.0% 36.6%– 43.4% 0.0% 56– 66 0.2%
|
|
345
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 30.9% 30.9% 28.7%– 34.7% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
346
|
+
2015-08-01 09:36:09 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
|
|
347
|
+
2015-08-01 09:36:09 INFO: 65,536 simulations out of 183,888 data points, 1 / 220,415,513,779 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
|
348
|
+
2015-08-01 09:39:49 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
349
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
350
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.8% 30.9% 28.7%– 34.9% 100.0% 46– 55
|
|
351
|
+
Catalunya Sí que es Pot 20.0% 19.8% 19.8% 17.1%– 22.7% 96.6% 22– 30
|
|
352
|
+
Ciutadans-Partido de la Ciudadanía 16.0% 16.5% 16.5% 13.6%– 18.7% 100.0% 17– 24
|
|
353
|
+
Partit Popular de Catalunya 9.0% 9.7% 9.3% 7.1%– 11.2% 43.7% 9– 14
|
|
354
|
+
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya 9.0% 9.4% 9.4% 7.1%– 11.2% 81.6% 9– 14
|
|
355
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres 8.0% 8.1% 8.1% 6.4%– 10.0% 100.0% 8– 13
|
|
356
|
+
Unió Democràtica de Catalunya 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 2.9%– 5.5% 0– 7
|
|
357
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
358
|
+
Candidatura d'Unitat Popular – Alternativa d'Esquerres + Junts pel Sí 40.0% 39.9% 39.9% 36.5%– 43.1% 0.0% 56– 66 0.6%
|
|
359
|
+
Junts pel Sí 32.0% 31.8% 30.9% 28.7%– 34.9% 0.0% 46– 55 0.0%
|
|
360
|
+
2015-08-01 09:39:49 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.01%.
|
|
361
|
+
2015-08-01 09:39:49 INFO: 131,072 simulations out of 367,802 data points, 1 / 110,199,966,280 of search space size (40,531,767,997,824,000).
|
data/Example-Flanders.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,486 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
Example: Flanders
|
|
2
|
+
=================
|
|
3
|
+
|
|
4
|
+
The following file is a valid poll file for a Flemish poll. It is based on
|
|
5
|
+
the results of a poll conducted between 22 February and 9 March 2016 by TNS
|
|
6
|
+
Media for De Standaard and VRT.
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
Area=BE-VLG
|
|
9
|
+
Type=Election
|
|
10
|
+
==
|
|
11
|
+
N-VA=274
|
|
12
|
+
CD&V=192
|
|
13
|
+
Open Vld=142
|
|
14
|
+
sp.a=148
|
|
15
|
+
Groen=117
|
|
16
|
+
Vlaams Belang=81
|
|
17
|
+
PVDA=40
|
|
18
|
+
Other=11
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis, provided it has
|
|
21
|
+
been saved as 2016-03-09-DeStandaard-VRT.poll.
|
|
22
|
+
|
|
23
|
+
sapor analyze 2016-03-09-DeStandaard-VRT.poll
|
|
24
|
+
|
|
25
|
+
For this file, the log will look like below.
|
|
26
|
+
|
|
27
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...
|
|
28
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
29
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
30
|
+
CD&V 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
31
|
+
Groen 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
32
|
+
N-VA 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
33
|
+
Open Vld 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
34
|
+
PVDA 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
35
|
+
Vlaams Belang 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
36
|
+
sp.a 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
37
|
+
Other 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
38
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 33.3%.
|
|
39
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 3.
|
|
40
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
41
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
42
|
+
N-VA 27.8% 22.2%– 33.3% 100.0%
|
|
43
|
+
CD&V 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
44
|
+
Groen 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
45
|
+
Open Vld 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
46
|
+
sp.a 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
47
|
+
PVDA 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
48
|
+
Vlaams Belang 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
49
|
+
Other 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
50
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 11.1%.
|
|
51
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 9.
|
|
52
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
53
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
54
|
+
N-VA 27.8% 22.2%– 29.6% 100.0%
|
|
55
|
+
CD&V 20.4% 14.8%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
56
|
+
Groen 13.0% 7.4%– 14.8% 100.0%
|
|
57
|
+
Open Vld 13.0% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
|
|
58
|
+
sp.a 13.0% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
|
|
59
|
+
Vlaams Belang 9.3% 7.4%– 11.1% 100.0%
|
|
60
|
+
PVDA 5.6% 3.7%– 7.4% 99.9%
|
|
61
|
+
Other 1.9% 0.0%– 3.7% 0.0%
|
|
62
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.70%.
|
|
63
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 27.
|
|
64
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
65
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
66
|
+
N-VA 27.8% 24.7%– 30.9% 100.0%
|
|
67
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.0%– 22.2% 100.0%
|
|
68
|
+
Open Vld 14.2% 11.1%– 17.3% 100.0%
|
|
69
|
+
sp.a 14.2% 12.3%– 17.3% 100.0%
|
|
70
|
+
Groen 11.7% 9.9%– 14.8% 100.0%
|
|
71
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0%
|
|
72
|
+
PVDA 4.3% 2.5%– 6.2% 5.9%
|
|
73
|
+
Other 0.6% 0.0%– 2.5% 0.0%
|
|
74
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.23%.
|
|
75
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Number of data points: 81.
|
|
76
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:08 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
77
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
78
|
+
N-VA 27.4% 24.3%– 30.5% 100.0%
|
|
79
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.5%– 21.8% 100.0%
|
|
80
|
+
sp.a 14.6% 12.3%– 17.3% 100.0%
|
|
81
|
+
Open Vld 14.2% 11.9%– 16.5% 100.0%
|
|
82
|
+
Groen 11.7% 9.5%– 14.0% 100.0%
|
|
83
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.2%– 10.3% 100.0%
|
|
84
|
+
PVDA 3.9% 2.9%– 5.8% 8.4%
|
|
85
|
+
Other 1.0% 0.4%– 2.1% 0.0%
|
|
86
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:09 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
|
|
87
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:09 INFO: Number of data points: 243.
|
|
88
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:15 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
89
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
90
|
+
N-VA 27.2% 24.6%– 30.2% 100.0%
|
|
91
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.7%– 21.7% 100.0%
|
|
92
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 12.6%– 17.1% 100.0%
|
|
93
|
+
Open Vld 14.2% 12.1%– 16.5% 100.0%
|
|
94
|
+
Groen 11.6% 9.7%– 13.9% 100.0%
|
|
95
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.4%– 10.0% 100.0%
|
|
96
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.9%– 5.5% 8.7%
|
|
97
|
+
Other 1.0% 0.5%– 2.1% 0.0%
|
|
98
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:16 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.137%.
|
|
99
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:16 INFO: Number of data points: 729.
|
|
100
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:37 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
101
|
+
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
|
|
102
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6%– 30.1% 100.0%
|
|
103
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.8%– 21.7% 100.0%
|
|
104
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 12.7%– 17.1% 100.0%
|
|
105
|
+
Open Vld 14.2% 12.1%– 16.5% 100.0%
|
|
106
|
+
Groen 11.6% 9.8%– 13.8% 100.0%
|
|
107
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.5%– 9.9% 100.0%
|
|
108
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.9%– 5.4% 7.8%
|
|
109
|
+
Other 1.1% 0.6%– 2.0% 0.0%
|
|
110
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:40 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
|
|
111
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:40 INFO: Number of data points: 2,187.
|
|
112
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:43 INFO: Analyzing as a polychotomy...
|
|
113
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
114
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
115
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 10.6% 20.8% 20.8%– 20.9% 100.0% 39– 39
|
|
116
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 6.9% 13.6% 13.6%– 13.6% 100.0% 27– 27
|
|
117
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 5.0% 9.9% 9.9%– 9.9% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
118
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 4.8% 9.4% 9.4%– 9.4% 100.0% 18– 18
|
|
119
|
+
Groen 11.6% 3.7% 7.3% 7.3%– 7.4% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
120
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 2.4% 4.5% 4.5%– 4.6% 100.0% 6– 6
|
|
121
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 0.9% 1.7% 1.7%– 1.7% 0– 0
|
|
122
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
123
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 50.0% 30.8% 30.8%– 30.8% 0.0% 60– 60 0.0%
|
|
124
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 50.0% 34.4% 34.4%– 34.4% 0.0% 66– 66 100.0%
|
|
125
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 50.0% 43.8% 43.8%– 43.8% 0.0% 84– 84 100.0%
|
|
126
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 50.0% 44.3% 44.3%– 44.3% 0.0% 85– 85 100.0%
|
|
127
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 50.0% 23.0% 23.0%– 23.0% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
128
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 50.0% 32.9% 32.9%– 32.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
129
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 50.0% 23.5% 23.5%– 23.5% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
130
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 50.0% 26.6% 26.6%– 26.6% 0.0% 51– 51 0.0%
|
|
131
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 50.0% 25.4% 25.4%– 25.4% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
132
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 50.0% 19.3% 19.3%– 19.3% 0.0% 37– 37 0.0%
|
|
133
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 100%.
|
|
134
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: 1 simulations out of 1 data points, 1 / 24,300,290,385,000,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
135
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
136
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
137
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 22.2% 22.2% 22.1%– 22.2% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
138
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6%– 14.7% 100.0% 27– 27
|
|
139
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%– 10.7% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
140
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%– 10.2% 100.0% 18– 18
|
|
141
|
+
Groen 11.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%– 8.0% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
142
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%– 5.1% 100.0% 7– 7
|
|
143
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%– 1.8% 0– 0
|
|
144
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
145
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 66.0% 33.3% 32.1%– 33.3% 0.0% 60– 60 0.0%
|
|
146
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 67.7% 36.8% 35.6%– 36.8% 0.0% 65– 65 100.0%
|
|
147
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 72.7% 47.0% 45.4%– 47.0% 0.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
148
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 72.9% 47.5% 45.9%– 47.5% 0.0% 84– 84 100.0%
|
|
149
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 61.9% 24.8% 23.9%– 24.8% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
150
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 67.1% 35.6% 34.2%– 35.6% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
151
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 62.1% 25.4% 24.4%– 25.4% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
152
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 63.9% 28.8% 27.7%– 28.8% 0.0% 51– 51 0.0%
|
|
153
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 63.2% 27.2% 26.3%– 27.2% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
154
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 60.2% 20.9% 20.1%– 20.9% 0.0% 37– 37 0.0%
|
|
155
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.33%.
|
|
156
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: 2 simulations out of 2 data points, 1 / 12,150,145,192,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
157
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
158
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
159
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8%– 24.8% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
160
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.8% 16.8% 16.7%– 16.8% 100.0% 25– 25
|
|
161
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 12.5% 12.5% 12.4%– 12.5% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
162
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7%– 11.8% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
163
|
+
Groen 11.6% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%– 9.1% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
164
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0%– 6.1% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
165
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%– 1.9% 0– 0
|
|
166
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
167
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 68.6% 38.3% 37.1%– 38.3% 0.0% 58– 58 0.0%
|
|
168
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 70.1% 41.6% 40.4%– 41.6% 0.0% 63– 63 100.0%
|
|
169
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 76.0% 53.3% 51.7%– 53.3% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
|
|
170
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 76.2% 54.0% 52.4%– 54.0% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
|
|
171
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 63.9% 28.5% 27.6%– 28.5% 0.0% 44– 44 0.0%
|
|
172
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 69.9% 40.9% 39.6%– 40.9% 0.0% 63– 63 100.0%
|
|
173
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 64.1% 29.2% 28.3%– 29.2% 0.0% 44– 44 0.0%
|
|
174
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 66.0% 33.3% 32.2%– 33.3% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
|
|
175
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 64.9% 30.9% 29.9%– 30.9% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
176
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 61.7% 24.2% 23.4%– 24.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
|
|
177
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.65%.
|
|
178
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: 4 simulations out of 4 data points, 1 / 6,075,072,596,250,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
179
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
180
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
181
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
182
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
|
|
183
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
184
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
185
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
186
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
187
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
|
|
188
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
189
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 72.3% 45.9% 44.6%– 45.9% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
|
|
190
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 73.8% 48.7% 47.5%– 48.7% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
191
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 80.5% 62.8% 61.2%– 62.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
192
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 81.2% 63.8% 62.1%– 63.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
193
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.8% 34.0% 33.1%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
194
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 73.8% 49.0% 47.7%– 49.0% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
195
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 67.1% 35.0% 34.0%– 35.0% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
196
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.7% 40.0% 38.9%– 42.4% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
|
|
197
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 68.0% 36.4% 35.9%– 36.4% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
198
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.8% 29.1% 28.3%– 29.4% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
|
|
199
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.98%.
|
|
200
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: 8 simulations out of 14 data points, 1 / 1,735,735,027,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
201
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
202
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
203
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
204
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
|
|
205
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
206
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
207
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
208
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
209
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
|
|
210
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
211
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 45.9% 45.9% 45.7%– 46.0% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
|
|
212
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 48.3% 48.7% 47.5%– 48.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
213
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.6% 62.8% 61.8%– 63.1% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
214
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 64.1% 63.8% 63.2%– 64.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
215
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.0% 34.0% 33.5%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
216
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 49.1% 49.0% 48.3%– 49.7% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
217
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 35.5% 35.0% 35.0%– 35.9% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
218
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.3% 40.0% 39.3%– 41.0% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
|
|
219
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.6% 36.4% 36.2%– 36.7% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
220
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
|
|
221
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.80%.
|
|
222
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: 16 simulations out of 27 data points, 1 / 900,010,755,000,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
223
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
224
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
225
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
|
|
226
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
|
|
227
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
228
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
229
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
|
|
230
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
231
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
|
|
232
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
233
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 45.9% 45.9% 45.7%– 46.0% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
|
|
234
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 48.7% 48.7% 48.5%– 48.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
235
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.8% 62.8% 62.3%– 63.1% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
236
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 63.9% 63.8% 63.2%– 64.3% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
|
|
237
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.0% 34.0% 33.5%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
238
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 49.1% 49.0% 48.8%– 49.6% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
|
|
239
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 35.3% 35.0% 35.0%– 35.5% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
|
|
240
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.5% 40.0% 40.0%– 40.9% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
|
|
241
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.4% 36.4% 36.2%– 36.6% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
|
|
242
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
|
|
243
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.12%.
|
|
244
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: 32 simulations out of 74 data points, 1 / 328,382,302,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
245
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
246
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
247
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 24.6% 100.0% 32– 32
|
|
248
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 22.2% 22.2% 19.9%– 22.3% 99.4% 26– 31
|
|
249
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%– 15.5% 100.0% 19– 19
|
|
250
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%– 14.0% 100.0% 18– 18
|
|
251
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.6%– 12.0% 100.0% 15– 16
|
|
252
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%– 7.9% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
253
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%– 2.8% 0– 0
|
|
254
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
255
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 49.6%– 49.6% 0.0% 65– 66 97.6%
|
|
256
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 47.0% 46.8% 46.6%– 47.1% 0.0% 63– 63 99.4%
|
|
257
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.8% 60.8% 60.7%– 60.9% 100.0% 81– 81 100.0%
|
|
258
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.3% 62.3% 62.1%– 62.4% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
|
|
259
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 33.7%– 36.4% 0.0% 45– 49 0.0%
|
|
260
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 52.4% 51.7% 50.8%– 52.8% 97.6% 68– 68 100.0%
|
|
261
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 37.3%– 37.8% 0.0% 50– 50 0.0%
|
|
262
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 41.1% 41.4% 40.7%– 41.5% 0.0% 53– 53 0.0%
|
|
263
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.5% 32.5% 32.4%– 32.6% 0.0% 40– 40 0.0%
|
|
264
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.5% 29.4% 29.4%– 29.6% 0.0% 37– 38 0.0%
|
|
265
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.21%.
|
|
266
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: 64 simulations out of 167 data points, 1 / 145,510,720,868,263 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
267
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
268
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
269
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 26.6% 100.0% 32– 37
|
|
270
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 51.1% 20– 31
|
|
271
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%– 17.9% 100.0% 19– 23
|
|
272
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%– 14.9% 100.0% 18– 19
|
|
273
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 12.0% 100.0% 15– 16
|
|
274
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.3%– 7.9% 100.0% 8– 8
|
|
275
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 4.3% 0– 2
|
|
276
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
277
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 58– 66 49.9%
|
|
278
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.9% 46.8% 42.6%– 47.0% 0.2% 57– 63 51.1%
|
|
279
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 57.6% 60.8% 57.5%– 60.9% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
|
|
280
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.3% 62.3% 60.4%– 62.4% 100.0% 80– 82 100.0%
|
|
281
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.9%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
|
|
282
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 48.8%– 51.7% 49.9% 62– 68 51.1%
|
|
283
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 33.9%– 37.8% 0.0% 43– 50 0.0%
|
|
284
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 44.6% 41.4% 41.4%– 44.7% 0.0% 53– 57 0.0%
|
|
285
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.5% 32.5% 32.4%– 34.0% 0.0% 40– 45 0.0%
|
|
286
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.5% 29.4% 29.4%– 32.9% 0.0% 37– 42 0.0%
|
|
287
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 6.13%.
|
|
288
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: 128 simulations out of 336 data points, 1 / 72,322,292,812,500 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
289
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
290
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
291
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
|
|
292
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 56.9% 20– 31
|
|
293
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.1%– 17.9% 95.1% 15– 23
|
|
294
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4%– 14.9% 99.4% 18– 19
|
|
295
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 12.7% 100.0% 15– 17
|
|
296
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.4%– 7.9% 100.0% 6– 8
|
|
297
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
|
|
298
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
299
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 44.7%
|
|
300
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.8% 46.8% 42.6%– 50.8% 4.4% 57– 68 49.8%
|
|
301
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.8% 60.8% 57.5%– 63.9% 100.0% 76– 86 100.0%
|
|
302
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.5% 62.3% 60.4%– 62.8% 100.0% 79– 83 100.0%
|
|
303
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.1%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
|
|
304
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 46.0%– 51.7% 44.0% 59– 68 45.7%
|
|
305
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 33.2%– 37.8% 0.0% 41– 50 0.0%
|
|
306
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 41.4% 41.4% 38.0%– 44.7% 0.0% 50– 57 0.0%
|
|
307
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.4% 32.5% 32.4%– 35.9% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
|
|
308
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 32.8% 29.4% 25.3%– 32.9% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
|
|
309
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.62%.
|
|
310
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: 256 simulations out of 716 data points, 1 / 33,938,953,051,676 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
311
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
312
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
313
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
|
|
314
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 60.5% 20– 31
|
|
315
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.1%– 17.9% 94.5% 15– 23
|
|
316
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4%– 14.9% 98.6% 18– 20
|
|
317
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 13.8% 99.8% 15– 18
|
|
318
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.1%– 7.9% 100.0% 6– 8
|
|
319
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
|
|
320
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
321
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 46.0% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 41.7%
|
|
322
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.8% 46.8% 42.6%– 50.8% 4.0% 56– 68 46.4%
|
|
323
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 57.5% 60.8% 57.5%– 63.9% 100.0% 76– 86 100.0%
|
|
324
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.2% 62.3% 59.6%– 62.8% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
|
|
325
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.1%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
|
|
326
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 46.1%– 51.7% 40.5% 59– 68 42.9%
|
|
327
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 32.3%– 37.8% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
|
|
328
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 44.7% 41.4% 38.0%– 44.7% 0.0% 50– 57 0.0%
|
|
329
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.4% 32.5% 32.4%– 35.9% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
|
|
330
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 32.7% 29.4% 25.4%– 32.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
|
|
331
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.89%.
|
|
332
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: 512 simulations out of 1,433 data points, 1 / 16,957,634,602,233 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
333
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
334
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
335
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.0% 27.0% 23.3%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
|
|
336
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 17.6% 17.6% 16.1%– 22.3% 84.9% 20– 31
|
|
337
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 14.0%– 17.9% 56.6% 18– 23
|
|
338
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 16.3% 16.3% 12.1%– 16.4% 98.8% 15– 22
|
|
339
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.4% 12.4% 10.9%– 13.8% 99.9% 14– 18
|
|
340
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.9% 6.9% 6.1%– 8.8% 100.0% 6– 10
|
|
341
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
|
|
342
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
343
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.1% 44.1% 43.0%– 49.6% 0.0% 54– 66 23.9%
|
|
344
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 44.6% 44.6% 42.6%– 48.7% 1.5% 56– 64 20.7%
|
|
345
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.9% 60.9% 57.5%– 62.0% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
|
|
346
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 58.7% 58.7% 58.7%– 62.9% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
|
|
347
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.8% 34.0% 29.9%– 36.3% 0.0% 38– 49 0.0%
|
|
348
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 48.1% 45.8%– 51.7% 23.6% 58– 68 24.6%
|
|
349
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 31.8% 31.8%– 37.7% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
|
|
350
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 42.9% 42.9% 38.2%– 44.7% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
|
|
351
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 33.8% 33.8% 30.9%– 37.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
352
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.5% 30.5% 26.4%– 32.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
|
|
353
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.62%.
|
|
354
|
+
2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: 1,024 simulations out of 2,870 data points, 1 / 8,467,000,134,146 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
355
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
356
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
357
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.0% 27.0% 24.6%– 28.3% 100.0% 32– 39
|
|
358
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.5% 19.5% 16.1%– 22.3% 96.7% 20– 31
|
|
359
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.3%– 17.9% 16.7% 16– 23
|
|
360
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.1%– 16.4% 99.6% 15– 22
|
|
361
|
+
Groen 11.6% 11.3% 11.3% 10.9%– 12.7% 97.8% 14– 17
|
|
362
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.9% 9.9% 6.9%– 9.9% 100.0% 7– 11
|
|
363
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.7%– 4.7% 0– 2
|
|
364
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
365
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 44.9% 44.1%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 5.2%
|
|
366
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 46.4% 42.7%– 48.8% 0.4% 57– 66 9.6%
|
|
367
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.7% 60.7% 57.5%– 61.1% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
|
|
368
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 58.7% 60.6% 58.7%– 62.5% 100.0% 77– 82 100.0%
|
|
369
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
|
|
370
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 47.9% 45.1%– 51.7% 5.7% 57– 68 78.4%
|
|
371
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 33.6% 33.6% 31.8%– 37.7% 0.0% 40– 50 0.0%
|
|
372
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 39.7% 37.7%– 44.7% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
|
|
373
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 33.8% 36.8% 32.5%– 37.7% 0.0% 40– 49 0.0%
|
|
374
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 28.4% 24.7%– 32.7% 0.0% 32– 42 0.0%
|
|
375
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.97%.
|
|
376
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: 2,048 simulations out of 5,813 data points, 1 / 4,180,335,521,245 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
377
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
378
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
379
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.8% 25.4% 25.1%– 29.7% 100.0% 33– 39
|
|
380
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 20.1% 20.1% 17.3%– 21.6% 98.8% 21– 28
|
|
381
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.5% 16.8% 13.0%– 16.8% 66.2% 16– 23
|
|
382
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 13.4% 13.4% 12.0%– 16.4% 99.3% 15– 22
|
|
383
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.2% 12.2% 10.9%– 12.6% 99.2% 14– 17
|
|
384
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.2% 7.2% 6.6%– 9.9% 100.0% 7– 11
|
|
385
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.1%– 5.1% 0– 3
|
|
386
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
387
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 49.0% 43.0%– 49.1% 0.0% 56– 63 29.9%
|
|
388
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 45.5% 43.1%– 47.5% 0.1% 56– 63 4.4%
|
|
389
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.9% 59.0% 58.0%– 61.9% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
|
|
390
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.6% 62.3% 57.4%– 63.8% 100.0% 75– 82 100.0%
|
|
391
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.6% 33.5% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 39– 47 0.0%
|
|
392
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 50.3% 46.2%– 50.3% 29.6% 59– 66 57.1%
|
|
393
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 36.9% 31.7%– 36.9% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
394
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 42.4% 38.4%– 43.0% 0.0% 49– 56 0.0%
|
|
395
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 37.1% 32.7% 32.7%– 37.3% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
|
|
396
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 30.2% 27.8%– 30.5% 0.0% 35– 41 0.0%
|
|
397
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.61%.
|
|
398
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: 4,096 simulations out of 11,590 data points, 1 / 2,096,660,084,987 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
399
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
400
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
401
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.8% 25.4% 24.6%– 29.7% 100.0% 32– 40
|
|
402
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 20.1% 19.5% 16.6%– 21.8% 98.8% 20– 29
|
|
403
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.5% 14.2% 11.8%– 17.3% 64.8% 15– 23
|
|
404
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.0%– 16.5% 98.8% 15– 22
|
|
405
|
+
Groen 11.6% 12.2% 12.2% 10.4%– 12.8% 99.3% 14– 17
|
|
406
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.2% 7.2% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
|
|
407
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.1%– 5.6% 0– 4
|
|
408
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
409
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 49.0% 41.9%– 49.1% 0.1% 54– 64 22.6%
|
|
410
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 45.5% 43.0%– 49.9% 0.6% 56– 66 13.1%
|
|
411
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.2% 59.0% 57.6%– 62.3% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
|
|
412
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.6% 60.6% 57.4%– 63.9% 100.0% 75– 85 100.0%
|
|
413
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
414
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 50.3% 44.3%– 50.9% 27.6% 57– 66 55.6%
|
|
415
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 36.9% 29.8%– 37.1% 0.0% 37– 48 0.0%
|
|
416
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 42.4% 36.9%– 44.1% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
|
|
417
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 37.1% 32.7% 32.4%– 38.3% 0.0% 40– 49 0.0%
|
|
418
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 30.2% 26.3%– 32.4% 0.0% 34– 43 0.0%
|
|
419
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.38%.
|
|
420
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: 8,192 simulations out of 23,308 data points, 1 / 1,042,572,952,849 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
421
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
422
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
423
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.5%– 30.7% 100.0% 32– 40
|
|
424
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.4% 19.4% 16.6%– 21.6% 99.3% 20– 29
|
|
425
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 14.9% 14.9% 12.0%– 17.3% 74.4% 15– 23
|
|
426
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 13.9% 13.9% 11.8%– 16.4% 98.9% 14– 22
|
|
427
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%– 12.8% 99.6% 14– 17
|
|
428
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.3% 9.3% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
|
|
429
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1%– 5.4% 0– 4
|
|
430
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
431
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 42.5% 44.9% 41.9%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 65 11.5%
|
|
432
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 45.4% 46.7% 43.1%– 49.3% 0.6% 56– 66 17.3%
|
|
433
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 58.7% 60.6% 57.6%– 62.8% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
|
|
434
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.6% 57.6%– 63.8% 100.0% 75– 85 100.0%
|
|
435
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.2% 33.3% 30.4%– 35.8% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
|
|
436
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 48.2% 44.6%– 50.9% 14.8% 57– 67 60.9%
|
|
437
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 34.3% 30.5%– 37.6% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
|
|
438
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 39.3% 37.4%– 43.4% 0.0% 47– 58 0.0%
|
|
439
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.6% 36.6% 32.4%– 38.6% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
440
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 28.8% 26.3%– 32.4% 0.0% 33– 43 0.0%
|
|
441
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.06%.
|
|
442
|
+
2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: 16,384 simulations out of 46,629 data points, 1 / 521,141,143,602 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
443
|
+
2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
444
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
445
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.6%– 30.7% 100.0% 33– 40
|
|
446
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.1% 19.0% 16.9%– 21.3% 99.7% 21– 28
|
|
447
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.5%– 16.8% 66.4% 15– 22
|
|
448
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.7% 14.7% 12.1%– 16.3% 96.8% 15– 22
|
|
449
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.8%– 13.5% 99.7% 14– 17
|
|
450
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.6%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
|
|
451
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 3.1%– 5.3% 0– 3
|
|
452
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
453
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 42.5% 45.0% 42.5%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 63 5.1%
|
|
454
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.1% 46.4% 43.3%– 49.6% 0.6% 57– 65 13.4%
|
|
455
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 58.7% 61.1% 57.9%– 62.8% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
|
|
456
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.8% 58.2%– 64.1% 100.0% 76– 84 100.0%
|
|
457
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 30.4%– 36.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
458
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 49.2% 45.2%– 50.9% 8.8% 58– 67 71.8%
|
|
459
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 34.5% 34.5% 30.7%– 36.9% 0.0% 39– 48 0.0%
|
|
460
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 40.6% 37.6%– 43.0% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
|
|
461
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 35.5% 35.2% 32.5%– 38.4% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
|
|
462
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.1% 30.1% 26.1%– 31.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
|
|
463
|
+
2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.42%.
|
|
464
|
+
2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: 32,768 simulations out of 93,214 data points, 1 / 260,693,569,475 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|
|
465
|
+
2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
|
|
466
|
+
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
|
|
467
|
+
N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.6%– 30.4% 100.0% 33– 40
|
|
468
|
+
CD&V 19.1% 19.1% 19.0% 16.6%– 21.3% 98.8% 21– 28
|
|
469
|
+
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.3%– 17.1% 69.6% 15– 23
|
|
470
|
+
Open Vld 14.1% 14.7% 14.7% 12.0%– 16.2% 94.0% 15– 22
|
|
471
|
+
Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.7%– 13.9% 99.5% 13– 17
|
|
472
|
+
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.4%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
|
|
473
|
+
PVDA 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 2.9%– 5.3% 0– 3
|
|
474
|
+
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
|
|
475
|
+
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 46.6% 45.0% 42.5%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 64 6.9%
|
|
476
|
+
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.1% 46.4% 42.9%– 49.6% 0.8% 56– 66 12.9%
|
|
477
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 59.0% 61.1% 57.4%– 63.1% 100.0% 75– 84 100.0%
|
|
478
|
+
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.8% 57.8%– 64.0% 100.0% 75– 84 100.0%
|
|
479
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 30.4%– 36.4% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
|
|
480
|
+
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 45.6% 49.2% 44.5%– 51.2% 9.9% 58– 67 57.6%
|
|
481
|
+
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 34.5% 34.5% 30.3%– 37.4% 0.0% 39– 48 0.0%
|
|
482
|
+
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 40.6% 37.6%– 43.7% 0.0% 48– 58 0.0%
|
|
483
|
+
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 35.5% 35.2% 32.5%– 38.4% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
|
|
484
|
+
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.1% 30.1% 26.2%– 32.0% 0.0% 33– 43 0.0%
|
|
485
|
+
2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.78%.
|
|
486
|
+
2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: 65,536 simulations out of 187,092 data points, 1 / 129,884,176,688 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
|