commonmeta-ruby 3.3.17 → 3.4.0

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+        points to a <em>prescriptiveness trade-off</em> when writing preregistered
+        plans: All other things being equal, plans that are more prescriptive are
+        more likely to result in deviations that turn their confirmatory tests into
+        exploratory tests, and plans that are less prescriptive are more likely to
+        result in confirmatory tests that are susceptible to questionable research
+        practices. I also consider Van Drimmelen’s idea that researchers may make
+        unconscious, implicit decisions during the research process. I relate these
+        implicit decisions to Rumsfeld’s (2002) concept of <em>unknown unknowns</em>:
+        “the things we don’t know we don’t know”! I argue that scientists can report
+        their <em>known knowns</em> (what they know they did and found), and they
+        can be transparent and speculative about their <em>known unknowns</em> (what
+        they know they didn’t do and may find), but that they can’t say much about
+        their <em>unknown unknowns </em>(including their unconscious, implicit decisions)
+        because, by definition, they don’t know what they are! Nonetheless, I think
+        that it’s important to acknowledge unknown unknowns in science because doing
+        so helps to contextualise research efforts as being highly tentative and fallible.</p><h4>Introduction</h4><p>The
+        videos of the presentations at the Metascience2023 conference were recently
+        made available <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLChfyH8TVDGlPTcKrVboBaf6QAGSJt1hQ\">here</a>.
+        One that caught my eye is by Tom van Drimmelen, titled “Researchers’ decision
+        making: Navigating ambiguity in research practice”: </p><div id=\"youtube2-5omWDTPcsNo\"
+        class=\"youtube-wrap\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;5omWDTPcsNo&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}\"
+        data-component-name=\"Youtube2ToDOM\"><div class=\"youtube-inner\"><iframe
+        src=\"https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/5omWDTPcsNo?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0\"
+        frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" gesture=\"media\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen\"
+        allowautoplay=\"true\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" width=\"728\" height=\"409\"></iframe></div></div><p>Here,
+        I summarise Van Drimmelen’s excellent work and share my thoughts on his ideas.</p><h4>What
+        is Researcher Discretion?</h4><p>Van Drimmelen (2023) explained that, during
+        the research process, researchers have discretion over numerous decisions
+        that they make about their methodology and analyses. During the data analysis
+        stage, this <em>researcher discretion</em> may be perceived negatively as
+        <em>researcher degrees of freedom</em> that is susceptible to <em>researcher
+        bias</em> and <em>questionable research practices</em> (John et al., 2012;
+        Simmons et al., 2011).</p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a
+        class=\"image-link is-viewable-img image2\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png\"
+        data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source
+        type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
+        424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+        class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" fetchpriority=\"high\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><svg
+        xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0
+        0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#FFFFFF\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"
+        stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2\"><polyline points=\"15
+        3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line
+        x1=\"21\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"3\" y2=\"10\"></line><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"21\"
+        y2=\"14\"></line></svg></div></div></a><figcaption class=\"image-caption\"><em>Figure
+        1. </em>Tom van Drimmelen illustrates the numerous decisions that researchers
+        make during the research process.</figcaption></figure></div><h4>Researcher
+        Discretion Emerges in Both Over- and Under-Determined Research Plans</h4><p>In
+        theory, it is possible to reduce and/or reveal researcher discretion during
+        data analyses by preregistering one or more methodological and analytical
+        research paths. However, Van Drimmelen (2023) and colleagues were interested
+        in how researcher discretion operates <em>in practice</em>. To investigate,
+        they conducted an ethnographic study in which they observed researcher discretion
+        in two different research groups. They found that researcher discretion emerged
+        when researchers used two categories of research plan.</p><p>1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
+        <em>Underdetermined plans</em>: Researcher discretion emerged when research
+        plans were not precise enough to determine specific actions for the researchers.
+        In this case, researchers needed to use their own discretion to fill in the
+        gaps of the research plan and figure out how to proceed. Researchers often
+        find themselves in this situation because preregistered research plans are
+        often vague (e.g., Bakker et al., 2020; Heirene et al., 2021; Van den Akker
+        et al., 2023).</p><p>2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <em>Overdetermined plans</em>:
+        Researcher discretion also emerged when there were unforeseen changes in the
+        research situation that made the original research plan undesirable or impossible,
+        necessitating an alternative research approach. Again, this situation is common,
+        because most researchers do not possess “godlike planning abilities” (Navarro,
+        2020). To attempt to address this issue, researchers can preregister “if…then”
+        contingencies (i.e., decision trees) that accommodate <em>anticipated</em>
+        changes in the research situation (Nosek et al., 2018, p. 2602). In addition,
+        it may be possible to update a preregistered analysis plan prior to the data
+        analysis in order to take account of <em>unanticipated</em> events (Nosek
+        et al., 2019, p. 817). However, it is often the case that <em>unanticipated</em>
+        events arise <em>during data analyses</em>. As Reinhart (2015, p. 95) explained
+        (paraphrasing Helmuth von Moltke), “no analysis plan survives contact with
+        the data.” In these cases, researchers either need to stick to an inadequate
+        preregistered analysis plan or deviate and adapt their approach to address
+        the current situation. The evidence shows that researchers often deviate from
+        their preregistered plans (e.g., Abrams et al., 2020; Claesen et al., 2021;
+        Heirene et al., 2021).</p><h4>A Prescriptiveness Trade-Off in Preregistered
+        Plans</h4><p>Van Drimmelen’s (2023) work shows us that researchers are forced
+        to either deviate from overdetermined plans to overcome unforeseen events
+        or fill in the gaps of vague, underdetermined plans. Hence, researcher discretion
+        emerges in the case of both over- and under-determined plans. As Van Drimmelen
+        (2023) put it, “researcher discretion is an integral and unavoidable part
+        of the research practice.”</p><p>I think Van Drimmelen’s (2023) evidence also
+        points to a trade-off between the prescriptiveness of preregistered research
+        plans and the feasibility of their implementation in an unpredictable world.
+        As preregistered plans become more precise and prescriptive, there is a greater
+        chance that researchers will need to deviate from them in order to accommodate
+        unforeseen and/or uncontrolled events that occur during the implementation
+        of the plan. For example, researchers are more likely to deviate from a plan
+        to test “300 participants” than they are to deviate from a less prescriptive
+        plan to test “<em>around</em> 300 participants,” because uncontrolled events
+        (e.g., the number of participant exclusions during data analysis) may result
+        in a final sample size that is only close to 300 participants and not exactly
+        300 participants (e.g., Claesen et al., 2021, pp. 6-7). Consequently, as preregistered
+        plans become more prescriptive, they are more likely to result in deviations
+        that turn their planned confirmatory tests into unplanned exploratory tests.<sup>1</sup>
+        Of course, preregistration continues to distinguish between confirmatory and
+        exploratory tests in this situation, and it prevents exploratory tests from
+        being falsely portrayed as confirmatory tests. Nonetheless, it remains the
+        case that, as plans for confirmatory tests become more prescriptive, the actual
+        implementation of these confirmatory tests in the real world becomes less
+        likely.</p><p>On the other hand, as preregistered plans become vaguer and
+        less prescriptive, confirmatory hypothesis tests will become not only more
+        feasible to achieve without deviation, but also more susceptible to researcher
+        degrees of freedom and questionable research practices. For example, it is
+        more feasible to test “<em>around</em> 300 participants” than to test exactly
+        “300 participants.” However, the first sampling plan does not prevent the
+        questionable research practice of optional stopping (John et al., 2021; Simmons
+        et al., 2011), whereas the second, more prescriptive plan does.</p><p>In summary,
+        researchers need to consider a <em>prescriptiveness trade-off </em>when writing
+        their preregistered plans: All other things being equal, plans that are more
+        prescriptive are more likely to result in deviations that turn their confirmatory
+        tests into exploratory tests, and plans that are less prescriptive are more
+        likely to result in confirmatory tests that are susceptible to questionable
+        research practices. Hence, researchers face a difficult choice between prescriptive
+        confirmatory tests that they are less likely to carry out in practice and
+        vague confirmatory tests that are more prone to questionable research practices.</p><div
+        class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a class=\"image-link is-viewable-img
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+        848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
+        1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"><img src=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg\"
+        width=\"284\" height=\"429.408\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:756,&quot;width&quot;:500,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:284,&quot;bytes&quot;:93786,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}\"
+        class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
+        424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
+        848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
+        1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" loading=\"lazy\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><svg
+        xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0
+        0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#FFFFFF\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"
+        stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2\"><polyline points=\"15
+        3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line
+        x1=\"21\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"3\" y2=\"10\"></line><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"21\"
+        y2=\"14\"></line></svg></div></div></a></figure></div><h4>Researchers Sometimes
+        Make Implicit Decisions</h4><p>Van Drimmelen and colleagues (2023) also identified
+        another interesting issue in their work. At times, they found it difficult
+        to identify researcher discretion because there were multiple potential methodological
+        or analytical approaches available that researchers did not consider. In other
+        words, sometimes <em>researchers</em> <em>were not aware that they were making
+        decisions</em>!</p><p>This idea of unconscious and implicit research decisions
+        reminds me of something that Donald Rumsfeld, the United States Secretary
+        of Defence, said at a press briefing in 2002:</p><blockquote><p>There are
+        known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known
+        unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But
+        there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. (Wikipedia,
+        2023)</p></blockquote><p>In the context of Figure 1, our <em>known knowns</em>
+        are the path or paths that we reported following in our research (e.g., the
+        green paths). In these cases, we know what we did, and we know what we found
+        as a result. In contrast, our <em>known unknowns</em> are the paths that we
+        actively decided not to follow (e.g., all the other paths in Figure 1). We
+        know these paths exist, but we don’t yet know what results lie at the end
+        of them.</p><p>But what about our <em>unknown unknowns</em>? These paths don’t
+        appear in Figure 1! They relate to decisions that we didn’t even consider,
+        at least not at a conscious level. For example, we may not have considered
+        the time of day of testing, the ambient temperature, or a host of other unspecified
+        variables that may be influential on our results. Instead, we unconsciously
+        relegated these unknown unknowns to a <em>ceteris paribus</em> clause (i.e.,
+        “all other things being equal”), which assumes that no other influential factors
+        are at play (Meehl, 1990). The problem is that our unconscious and implicit
+        decision to assume the irrelevance of these factors may be wrong! Indeed,
+        the history of science is full of cases in which factors that were not initially
+        considered to be important subsequently turned out to be crucial moderators
+        or boundary conditions of effects (for some examples, see Firestein, 2016).</p><div
+        class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a class=\"image-link is-viewable-img
+        image2\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg\"
+        data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source
+        type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"><img src=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg\"
+        width=\"296\" height=\"444\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:750,&quot;width&quot;:500,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:296,&quot;bytes&quot;:89822,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}\"
+        class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" loading=\"lazy\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><svg
+        xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0
+        0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#FFFFFF\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"
+        stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2\"><polyline points=\"15
+        3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line
+        x1=\"21\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"3\" y2=\"10\"></line><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"21\"
+        y2=\"14\"></line></svg></div></div></a></figure></div><h4>We Can’t Be Transparent
+        About Unknown Unknowns, But We Should Acknowledge They Exist!</h4><p>Van Drimmelen
+        (2023) concluded that “we might not be able to be effectively transparent
+        because <em>we don’t know which decisions we’ve actually made</em>” (my emphasis).
+        In other words, our lack of awareness about our potentially important implicit
+        decisions means that we can’t be transparent about them: We can report our
+        known knowns, and we can be transparent and speculative about our known unknowns,
+        but we can’t say much about our unknown unknowns because we don’t know what
+        they are! By definition, as soon as we start to speculate on a potentially
+        influential factor in our research, it becomes a <em>known</em> unknown about
+        which we need to make conscious decisions!</p><p>Despite our inability to
+        specify our unknown unknowns, Van Drimmelen’s (2023) work reminds us that
+        it’s important to acknowledge this type of ignorance in science because it
+        helps to contextualise our research efforts as being highly tentative and
+        fallible steps in a collective process of discovery and theory development.
+        Acknowledging our unknown unknowns also helps to address recent calls for
+        greater intellectual humility and modesty in science (Hoekstra &amp; Vazire,
+        2021; Ramsey, 2021).</p><p>I’ll end with a nice example of scientists acknowledging
+        unknown unknowns. Here’s Errington et al. (2021, p. 12) discussing the challenges
+        of assessing replicability in preclinical cancer biology:</p><blockquote><p>It
+        might also be that, in some cases, a failure to replicate was caused by the
+        replication team deviating from the protocol in some way that was not recognized,
+        or that a key part of the procedure was left out of the protocol inadvertently.
+        It is also possible that the effect reported in the original paper depended
+        on methodological factors that were not identified by original authors, the
+        replication team, or any other experts involved in the peer review of the
+        original paper or the Registered Report.</p></blockquote><h4>References</h4><p>Abrams,
+        E., Libgober, J., &amp; List, J. A. (2020). Research registries: Facts, myths,
+        and possible improvements (No. w27250). <em>National Bureau of Economic Research.
+        </em><a href=\"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27250\">https://doi.org/10.3386/w27250</a></p><p>Bakker,
+        M., Veldkamp, C. L., van Assen, M. A., Crompvoets, E. A., Ong, H. H., Nosek,
+        B. A.,…&amp; Wicherts, J. M. (2020). Ensuring the quality and specificity
+        of preregistrations. <em>PLoS Biology, 18</em>(12), e3000937. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000937\">https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000937</a></p><p>Claesen,
+        A., Gomes, S., Tuerlinckx, F., Vanpaemel, W., &amp; Leuven, K. U. (2021).
+        Comparing dream to reality: An assessment of adherence of the first generation
+        of preregistered studies. <em>Royal Society Open Science, 8</em>(10), 1–11.
+        <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037\">https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037</a></p><p>Errington,
+        T. M., Denis, A., Perfito, N., Iorns, E., &amp; Nosek, B. A. (2021). Reproducibility
+        in cancer biology: Challenges for assessing replicability in preclinical cancer
+        biology. <em>Elife, 10,</em> Article e67995. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67995\">https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67995</a></p><p>Fife,
+        D., &amp; Rodgers, J. L. (2019). Moving beyond the \"replication crisis\":
+        Understanding the exploratory/confirmatory data analysis continuum. <em>PsyArXiv</em>.
+        <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5vfq6\">https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5vfq6</a></p><p>Firestein,
+        S. (2016, February 14). Why failure to replicate findings can actually be
+        good for science. <em>LA Times.</em> <a href=\"https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0214-firestein-science-replication-failure-20160214-story.html\">https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0214-firestein-science-replication-failure-20160214-story.html</a></p><p>Heirene,
+        R., LaPlante, D., Louderback, E. R., Keen, B., Bakker, M., Serafimovska, A.,
+        &amp; Gainsbury, S. M. (2021). Preregistration specificity &amp; adherence:
+        A review of preregistered gambling studies &amp; cross-disciplinary comparison.
+        <em>PsyArXiv</em>. <a href=\"https://psyarxiv.com/nj4es/\">https://psyarxiv.com/nj4es/</a></p><p>Hoekstra,
+        R., &amp; Vazire, S. (2021). Aspiring to greater intellectual humility in
+        science. <em>Nature Human Behaviour, 5</em>(12), 1602-1607. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01203-8\">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01203-8</a></p><p>John,
+        L. K., Loewenstein, G., &amp; Prelec, D. (2012). Measuring the prevalence
+        of questionable research practices with incentives for truth telling. <em>Psychological
+        Science, 23</em>(5), 524–532. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611430953\">https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611430953</a></p><p>Meehl,
+        P. E. (1990). Appraising and amending theories: The strategy of Lakatosian
+        defense and two principles that warrant it. <em>Psychological Inquiry, 1</em>(2),
+        108-141. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327965pli0102_1\">https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327965pli0102_1</a></p><p>Navarro,
+        D. (2020, September 23). Paths in strange spaces: A comment on preregistration.<em>
+        PsycArXiv. </em><a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxn58\">https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxn58</a></p><p>Nosek,
+        B. A., Beck, E. D., Campbell, L., Flake, J. K., Hardwicke, T. E., Mellor,
+        D. T., van ‘t Veer, A. E., &amp; Vazire, S. (2019). Preregistration is hard,
+        and worthwhile. <em>Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 23,</em> 815–818. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009</a></p><p>Ramsey,
+        R. (2021). A call for greater modesty in psychology and cognitive neuroscience.
+        <em>Collabra: Psychology, 7</em>(1), 24091. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.24091\">https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.24091</a></p><p>Reinhart,
+        A. (2015). <em>Statistics done wrong: The woefully complete guide.</em> No
+        Starch Press.</p><p>Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., &amp; Simonsohn, U. (2011).
+        False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and
+        analysis allows presenting anything as significant. <em>Psychological Science,
+        22(</em>11), 1359–1366. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1177%20/0956797611417632\">https://doi.org/10.1177
+        /0956797611417632</a></p><p>Van den Akker, O., Bakker, M., van Assen, M. A.
+        L. M., Pennington, C. R., Verweij, L., Elsherif, M. M.,…Wicherts, J. M. (2023,
+        May 10). The effectiveness of preregistration in psychology: Assessing preregistration
+        strictness and preregistration-study consistency. <em>PsyArXiv</em>. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw\">https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw</a></p><p>Van
+        Drimmelen, T., Slagboom, N., Reis, R., Bouter, L., Van der Steen, J. (2023,
+        May 9). <em>Researchers’ decision making: Navigating ambiguity in research
+        practice.</em> Metascience2023, Washington, DC. Abstract: <a href=\"https://metascience.info/events/researchers-decision-making-navigating-ambiguity-in-research-practice/\">https://metascience.info/events/researchers-decision-making-navigating-ambiguity-in-research-practice/</a>
+        Preregistration: <a href=\"https://osf.io/tqwgp/\">https://osf.io/tqwgp/</a></p><p>Wikipedia.
+        (2023, March 16). There are unknown unknowns. <em>Wikipedia</em>. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_unknown_unknowns</p><h4>Endnotes</h4><p>1.&nbsp;Here,
+        I define confirmatory tests as planned tests, and exploratory tests as unplanned
+        tests. This conceptualization is consistent with the frequentist rationale
+        for preregistration, according to which unplanned tests undermine assumptions
+        regarding Type I error rates (Nosek et al., 2019, p. 816). I acknowledge that
+        there are other definitions for “confirmatory” and “exploratory”, including
+        definitions that view them as existing at opposite ends of a continuum rather
+        than as discrete categories (e.g., Fife &amp; Rodgers, 2019). According to
+        this continuum perspective, larger deviations from preregistered plans result
+        in “more exploratory” tests than smaller deviations. I don’t subscribe to
+        this continuum perspective, because it is unclear how to formally assess some
+        deviations as being “larger” or “smaller” than others. I agree that research
+        studies can be described as being more confirmatory or exploratory, because
+        they can contain a greater proportion of planned or unplanned tests. However,
+        in my view, the tests themselves can only be either confirmatory or exploratory,
+        because they can only be either planned or unplanned.</p><h4>Acknowledgements</h4><p>I’m
+        grateful to Tom van Drimmelen for his comments on an earlier version of this
+        article.</p><h4>PDF Download</h4><p>You can download a PDF version of this
+        article <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/3t7pc\">here</a>.</p><h4>Reference</h4><p>The
+        reference for this article is:</p><p>Rubin, M. (2023, June 7). The preregistration
+        prescriptiveness trade-off and unknown unknowns in science: Comments on Van
+        Drimmelen (2023). <em>Critical Metascience: MetaArXiv</em>. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/3t7pc\">https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/3t7pc</a></p><h4>Please
+        Subscribe and/or Share!</h4><p class=\"button-wrapper\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://markrubin.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe
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+        class=\"button primary\" href=\"https://markrubin.substack.com/subscribe?\"><span>Subscribe
+        now</span></a></p><p class=\"button-wrapper\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://markrubin.substack.com/p/the-preregistration-prescriptiveness?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}\"
+        data-component-name=\"ButtonCreateButton\"><a class=\"button primary\" href=\"https://markrubin.substack.com/p/the-preregistration-prescriptiveness?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share\"><span>Share</span></a></p>","published_at":1686086520,"updated_at":1686086520,"indexed_at":1688982864,"authors":[{"url":null,"name":"Mark
+        Rubin"}],"image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/195477de-91ce-4a76-bae8-b6334fb5bcc7_500x379.jpeg","tags":["Metascience","Researcher
+        Degrees Of Freedom","Open Science","Preregistration","Researcher Discretion"],"language":"en","reference":[{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27250","key":"ref1"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000937","key":"ref2"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037","key":"ref3"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67995","key":"ref4"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5vfq6","key":"ref5"},{"key":"ref6","url":"https://latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0214-firestein-science-replication-failure-20160214-story.html"},{"key":"ref7","url":"https://psyarxiv.com/nj4es"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01203-8","key":"ref8"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611430953","key":"ref9"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327965pli0102_1","key":"ref10"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxn58","key":"ref11"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009","key":"ref12"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.24091","key":"ref13"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177%20/0956797611417632","key":"ref14"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177","key":"ref15"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw","key":"ref16"},{"key":"ref17","url":"https://metascience.info/events/researchers-decision-making-navigating-ambiguity-in-research-practice"},{"key":"ref18","url":"https://osf.io/tqwgp"},{"key":"ref19","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/there_are_unknown_unknowns"}],"relationships":[],"blog_id":"ak4s224","blog_name":"Critical
+        Metascience","blog_slug":"markrubin","blog":{"id":"ak4s224","title":"Critical
+        Metascience","description":"Critical perspectives in metascience and the philosophy
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