swarm-engine 1.3.0 → 1.38.0

package/dist/runtime/graph-trajectory.js

@@ -0,0 +1,339 @@
+import { GraphLearner } from './graph-learner.js';
+// ─── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+const FEATURE_DIM = 5;
+const DEFAULT_COST_PER_TOKEN = 0.000015;
+const DEFAULT_TOKENS = 10000;
+const DEFAULT_DURATION_MS = 30000;
+function sigmoid(x) {
+    return 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-Math.max(-500, Math.min(500, x))));
+}
+function dot(a, b) {
+    let s = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < Math.min(a.length, b.length); i++)
+        s += a[i] * b[i];
+    return s;
+}
+function confidenceToScore(c) {
+    if (c === 'high')
+        return 1.0;
+    if (c === 'medium')
+        return 0.5;
+    if (c === 'low')
+        return 0.0;
+    return 0.5; // unknown → neutral
+}
+// ─── TrajectoryPredictor ──────────────────────────────────────────
+/**
+ * Predicts success probability for an in-progress orchestration based on
+ * its current phase trajectory. Uses online logistic regression trained
+ * from historical orchestration outcomes stored in the execution graph.
+ */
+export class TrajectoryPredictor {
+    graph;
+    model;
+    constructor(graph) {
+        this.graph = graph;
+        this.model = TrajectoryPredictor.initModel();
+        this.loadFromGraph();
+    }
+    static initModel() {
+        return {
+            weights: new Array(FEATURE_DIM).fill(0),
+            bias: 0.0, // neutral starting point
+            learnRate: 0.05,
+            positiveCount: 0,
+            negativeCount: 0,
+            historicalAvgTokens: 50_000,
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Extract trajectory features from an in-progress orchestration at the
+     * completion of `currentPhase`.
+     */
+    extractFeatures(orchestration, currentPhase) {
+        const phases = orchestration.phases;
+        const total = phases.length;
+        const completed = phases.filter((p) => p.status === 'completed' || p.status === 'failed').length;
+        const failed = phases.filter((p) => p.status === 'failed').length;
+        const completionRatio = total > 0 ? completed / total : 0;
+        const failedPhaseRatio = completed > 0 ? failed / completed : 0;
+        // Average confidence from completed phases' last agents
+        const confidenceScores = [];
+        for (const phase of phases) {
+            if (phase.status !== 'completed')
+                continue;
+            const lastAgent = phase.agents[phase.agents.length - 1];
+            if (lastAgent?.result?.confidence) {
+                confidenceScores.push(confidenceToScore(lastAgent.result.confidence));
+            }
+        }
+        const avgConfidence = confidenceScores.length > 0
+            ? confidenceScores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / confidenceScores.length
+            : 0.5;
+        // Token ratio vs historical average
+        const actualTokens = orchestration.phases
+            .filter((p) => p.status === 'completed')
+            .reduce((s, p) => s + p.usage.totalTokens, 0);
+        const tokenRatio = Math.min(3, actualTokens / Math.max(1, this.model.historicalAvgTokens));
+        // Structural quality: does the plan include review + test phases?
+        const kinds = new Set(phases.map((p) => p.config.kind ?? ''));
+        const hasGoodStructure = kinds.has('review') && (kinds.has('test') || kinds.has('integrate'));
+        return { completionRatio, avgConfidence, tokenRatio, hasGoodStructure, failedPhaseRatio };
+    }
+    /** Convert features to numeric vector. */
+    featureVector(f) {
+        return [
+            f.completionRatio,
+            f.avgConfidence,
+            f.tokenRatio / 3, // normalize to [0,1]
+            f.hasGoodStructure ? 1 : 0,
+            f.failedPhaseRatio,
+        ];
+    }
+    /**
+     * Predict success probability from current trajectory features.
+     * Adds human-readable factor explanations.
+     */
+    predict(features) {
+        const x = this.featureVector(features);
+        const logit = dot(this.model.weights, x) + this.model.bias;
+        const successProbability = sigmoid(logit);
+        // Classify trajectory trend
+        let trajectory = 'unknown';
+        if (features.failedPhaseRatio > 0.3) {
+            trajectory = 'degrading';
+        }
+        else if (features.avgConfidence > 0.7 && features.failedPhaseRatio === 0) {
+            trajectory = 'on-track';
+        }
+        else if (features.failedPhaseRatio > 0 && features.avgConfidence > 0.5) {
+            trajectory = 'recovering';
+        }
+        // Confidence based on training sample size
+        const total = this.model.positiveCount + this.model.negativeCount;
+        const confidence = total < 10 ? 'low' : total < 50 ? 'medium' : 'high';
+        // Explain the key factors
+        const factors = [];
+        if (features.failedPhaseRatio > 0.2) {
+            factors.push(`${Math.round(features.failedPhaseRatio * 100)}% of completed phases failed`);
+        }
+        if (features.avgConfidence < 0.4) {
+            factors.push('low average agent confidence');
+        }
+        if (features.tokenRatio > 2) {
+            factors.push('token consumption 2× above historical average');
+        }
+        if (!features.hasGoodStructure) {
+            factors.push('no review or test phases planned');
+        }
+        if (features.completionRatio > 0.8) {
+            factors.push('near completion');
+        }
+        if (factors.length === 0) {
+            factors.push('trajectory looks nominal');
+        }
+        return { successProbability, confidence, trajectory, factors };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Record the actual outcome of a completed orchestration, updating the model
+     * and historical token average via online SGD.
+     */
+    recordOutcome(orchestration, succeeded, currentPhase) {
+        // Update historical token average
+        const totalTokens = orchestration.usage?.totalTokens ?? 0;
+        if (totalTokens > 0) {
+            const alpha = 0.1; // exponential moving average
+            this.model.historicalAvgTokens =
+                alpha * totalTokens + (1 - alpha) * this.model.historicalAvgTokens;
+        }
+        // Extract features from the final state
+        const syntheticPhase = currentPhase ?? orchestration.phases[orchestration.phases.length - 1];
+        if (!syntheticPhase)
+            return;
+        const features = this.extractFeatures(orchestration, syntheticPhase);
+        const x = this.featureVector(features);
+        const label = succeeded ? 1 : 0;
+        const classWeight = succeeded ? 1.0 : 2.0; // up-weight failures
+        const pred = sigmoid(dot(this.model.weights, x) + this.model.bias);
+        const error = (pred - label) * classWeight;
+        const lr = this.model.learnRate;
+        for (let i = 0; i < FEATURE_DIM; i++) {
+            this.model.weights[i] -= lr * error * x[i];
+        }
+        this.model.bias -= lr * error;
+        if (succeeded) {
+            this.model.positiveCount++;
+        }
+        else {
+            this.model.negativeCount++;
+        }
+        this.saveToGraph();
+    }
+    // ─── Trajectory Forecast ─────────────────────────────────────────
+    /**
+     * Combine GNN topology features, causal estimates, and historical pattern
+     * stats into a unified forecast for remaining phases after each phase completes.
+     */
+    predictTrajectory(orchestrationId, completedPhases, remainingPhaseNames, patternName) {
+        const learner = new GraphLearner(this.graph);
+        const patternStatsList = patternName ? learner.getPatternStats(patternName) : [];
+        const patternStat = patternStatsList.length > 0 ? patternStatsList[0] : null;
+        const completedConfidences = completedPhases.map((p) => p.confidence);
+        const lowConfCount = completedConfidences.filter((c) => c === 'low').length;
+        const phases = remainingPhaseNames.map((name) => {
+            const successProb = this.estimatePhaseSuccess(name, patternName, completedConfidences);
+            const estimatedTokens = this.estimatePhaseTokens(name);
+            const estimatedDurationMs = this.estimatePhaseDuration(name);
+            const risks = [];
+            if (lowConfCount > 0) {
+                risks.push(`${lowConfCount} completed phase(s) had low confidence`);
+            }
+            if (successProb < 0.5) {
+                risks.push(`Historical success rate for "${name}" is below 50%`);
+            }
+            return { name, successProb, estimatedTokens, estimatedDurationMs, risks };
+        });
+        // Overall success = product of phase success probs
+        let overallSuccessProb = phases.length > 0
+            ? phases.reduce((acc, p) => acc * p.successProb, 1)
+            : 1;
+        // Adjust downward if any completed phase had low confidence
+        if (lowConfCount > 0) {
+            overallSuccessProb *= Math.pow(0.8, lowConfCount);
+        }
+        overallSuccessProb = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, overallSuccessProb));
+        // Budget forecast: (completed + estimated remaining) tokens × cost per token
+        const costPerToken = this.deriveCostPerToken();
+        const completedTokenCost = completedPhases.reduce((sum, p) => sum + p.tokens, 0) * costPerToken;
+        const estimatedTokenCost = phases.reduce((sum, p) => sum + p.estimatedTokens, 0) * costPerToken;
+        const budgetForecast = completedTokenCost + estimatedTokenCost;
+        // Recommendations
+        const recommendations = [];
+        for (const phase of phases) {
+            if (phase.successProb < 0.5) {
+                recommendations.push(`Phase "${phase.name}" has low success probability (${(phase.successProb * 100).toFixed(0)}%) — consider escalating model`);
+            }
+        }
+        if (patternStat && patternStat.avgCostUsd > 0 && budgetForecast > 2 * patternStat.avgCostUsd) {
+            recommendations.push('Budget forecast exceeds 2x pattern average — consider downgrading models for non-critical phases');
+        }
+        if (lowConfCount > 0) {
+            recommendations.push('Completed research had low confidence — consider adding more researchers');
+        }
+        // Confidence from pattern sample count
+        const sampleCount = patternStat?.totalRuns ?? 0;
+        let confidence;
+        if (sampleCount < 5)
+            confidence = 'low';
+        else if (sampleCount <= 20)
+            confidence = 'medium';
+        else
+            confidence = 'high';
+        return { phases, overallSuccessProb, budgetForecast, recommendations, confidence };
+    }
+    /** Estimate phase success probability from historical phase data. */
+    estimatePhaseSuccess(phaseKind, patternName, completedPhaseConfidences) {
+        const allPhases = this.graph.getNodesByType('phase');
+        const matching = allPhases.filter((p) => p.label === phaseKind);
+        let baseRate;
+        if (matching.length > 0) {
+            const succeeded = matching.filter((p) => p.properties.status === 'completed');
+            const failed = matching.filter((p) => p.properties.status === 'failed' || p.properties.status === 'error');
+            const total = succeeded.length + failed.length;
+            baseRate = total > 0 ? succeeded.length / total : 0.5;
+        }
+        else if (patternName) {
+            const learner = new GraphLearner(this.graph);
+            const stats = learner.getPatternStats(patternName);
+            baseRate = stats.length > 0 ? stats[0].successRate : 0.5;
+        }
+        else {
+            baseRate = 0.5;
+        }
+        // Degrade by low-confidence completed phases (10% reduction each)
+        const lowConfCount = completedPhaseConfidences.filter((c) => c === 'low').length;
+        if (lowConfCount > 0) {
+            baseRate *= Math.pow(0.9, lowConfCount);
+        }
+        return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));
+    }
+    /** Estimate token usage for a phase kind based on historical averages. */
+    estimatePhaseTokens(phaseKind) {
+        const allPhases = this.graph.getNodesByType('phase');
+        const matching = allPhases.filter((p) => p.label === phaseKind);
+        const tokenValues = matching
+            .map((p) => {
+            const usage = p.properties.usage;
+            return usage?.totalTokens ?? 0;
+        })
+            .filter((t) => t > 0);
+        if (tokenValues.length > 0) {
+            return tokenValues.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / tokenValues.length;
+        }
+        return DEFAULT_TOKENS;
+    }
+    /** Estimate duration for a phase kind based on historical averages. */
+    estimatePhaseDuration(phaseKind) {
+        const allPhases = this.graph.getNodesByType('phase');
+        const matching = allPhases.filter((p) => p.label === phaseKind);
+        const durations = matching
+            .map((p) => {
+            const usage = p.properties.usage;
+            return usage?.durationMs ?? 0;
+        })
+            .filter((d) => d > 0);
+        if (durations.length > 0) {
+            return durations.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / durations.length;
+        }
+        return DEFAULT_DURATION_MS;
+    }
+    /** Derive cost per token from historical phase data, or use default. */
+    deriveCostPerToken() {
+        const allPhases = this.graph.getNodesByType('phase');
+        let totalTokens = 0;
+        let totalCost = 0;
+        for (const phase of allPhases) {
+            const usage = phase.properties.usage;
+            if (usage?.totalTokens && usage.totalTokens > 0 && usage?.costUsd && usage.costUsd > 0) {
+                totalTokens += usage.totalTokens;
+                totalCost += usage.costUsd;
+            }
+        }
+        if (totalTokens > 0 && totalCost > 0) {
+            return totalCost / totalTokens;
+        }
+        return DEFAULT_COST_PER_TOKEN;
+    }
+    // ─── Persistence ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    saveToGraph() {
+        this.graph.addNode({
+            id: 'trajectory:model',
+            type: 'heuristic',
+            label: 'Trajectory Predictor Model',
+            properties: {
+                weights: this.model.weights,
+                bias: this.model.bias,
+                learnRate: this.model.learnRate,
+                positiveCount: this.model.positiveCount,
+                negativeCount: this.model.negativeCount,
+                historicalAvgTokens: this.model.historicalAvgTokens,
+            },
+        });
+    }
+    loadFromGraph() {
+        const node = this.graph.getNode('trajectory:model');
+        if (!node)
+            return;
+        const p = node.properties;
+        const weights = p.weights;
+        if (weights && Array.isArray(weights) && weights.length === FEATURE_DIM) {
+            this.model.weights = weights;
+            this.model.bias = p.bias ?? 0;
+            this.model.learnRate = p.learnRate ?? 0.05;
+            this.model.positiveCount = p.positiveCount ?? 0;
+            this.model.negativeCount = p.negativeCount ?? 0;
+            this.model.historicalAvgTokens = p.historicalAvgTokens ?? 50_000;
+        }
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=graph-trajectory.js.map

package/dist/runtime/graph-trajectory.js.map

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package/dist/runtime/learning-engine.d.ts

@@ -6,12 +6,20 @@ import { KnowledgeCompounder } from './compounder.js';
 import { ModelRouter } from './model-router.js';
 import { AutonomyTracker } from './autonomy.js';
 import type { ExecutionPlan } from '../core/types.js';
+import type { GraphLearner } from './graph-learner.js';
+import type { MetaPatternSelector } from './graph-meta.js';
+import type { PredictiveDropout } from './graph-dropout.js';
+import type { OrchestrationEmbedder } from './graph-embeddings.js';
 export interface LearningEngineDeps {
     traceStore: TraceStore | null;
     heuristicStore: HeuristicStore | null;
     modelRouter: ModelRouter | null;
     autonomyTracker: AutonomyTracker | null;
     compounder: KnowledgeCompounder | null;
+    graphLearner?: GraphLearner | null;
+    metaSelector?: MetaPatternSelector | null;
+    predictiveDropout?: PredictiveDropout | null;
+    orchestrationEmbedder?: OrchestrationEmbedder | null;
     log: Logger;
 }
 /**
@@ -25,6 +33,10 @@ export declare class LearningEngine {
     private modelRouter;
     private autonomyTracker;
     private compounder;
+    private graphLearner;
+    private metaSelector;
+    private predictiveDropout;
+    private orchestrationEmbedder;
     private log;
     constructor(deps: LearningEngineDeps);
     /**

package/dist/runtime/learning-engine.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"learning-engine.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/runtime/learning-engine.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,qBAAqB,EAAE,MAAM,kBAAkB,CAAC;AACnF,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AAC5C,OAAO,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,aAAa,CAAC;AACzC,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AACjD,OAAO,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AACtD,OAAO,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAChD,OAAO,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AAEhD,OAAO,KAAK,EAAgB,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,kBAAkB,CAAC;AACpE,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AACvD,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AAC3D,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,iBAAiB,EAAE,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AAC5D,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,qBAAqB,EAAE,MAAM,uBAAuB,CAAC;AAEnE,MAAM,WAAW,kBAAkB;IACjC,UAAU,EAAE,UAAU,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC9B,cAAc,EAAE,cAAc,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACtC,WAAW,EAAE,WAAW,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAChC,eAAe,EAAE,eAAe,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACxC,UAAU,EAAE,mBAAmB,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACvC,YAAY,CAAC,EAAE,YAAY,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACnC,YAAY,CAAC,EAAE,mBAAmB,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC1C,iBAAiB,CAAC,EAAE,iBAAiB,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC7C,qBAAqB,CAAC,EAAE,qBAAqB,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACrD,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACb;AAED;;;;GAIG;AACH,qBAAa,cAAc;IACzB,OAAO,CAAC,UAAU,CAAoB;IACtC,OAAO,CAAC,cAAc,CAAwB;IAC9C,OAAO,CAAC,WAAW,CAAqB;IACxC,OAAO,CAAC,eAAe,CAAyB;IAChD,OAAO,CAAC,UAAU,CAA6B;IAC/C,OAAO,CAAC,YAAY,CAAsB;IAC1C,OAAO,CAAC,YAAY,CAA6B;IACjD,OAAO,CAAC,iBAAiB,CAA2B;IACpD,OAAO,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAA+B;IAC5D,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAS;gBAER,IAAI,EAAE,kBAAkB;IAapC;;OAEG;IACG,aAAa,CACjB,aAAa,EAAE,qBAAqB,EACpC,MAAM,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAC3B,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GACpB,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;IAwIhB;;OAEG;IACH,iBAAiB,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,GAAE,MAAU,GAAG,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI;IAsBjE;;OAEG;IACH,gBAAgB,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,aAAa,GAAG,IAAI;IAiC3C;;OAEG;IACH,eAAe,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,aAAa,GAAG,IAAI;IAiB1C;;OAEG;IACH,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI;CAcd"}

package/dist/runtime/learning-engine.js

@@ -10,6 +10,10 @@ export class LearningEngine {
     modelRouter;
     autonomyTracker;
     compounder;
+    graphLearner;
+    metaSelector;
+    predictiveDropout;
+    orchestrationEmbedder;
     log;
     constructor(deps) {
         this.traceStore = deps.traceStore;
@@ -17,6 +21,10 @@ export class LearningEngine {
         this.modelRouter = deps.modelRouter;
         this.autonomyTracker = deps.autonomyTracker;
         this.compounder = deps.compounder;
+        this.graphLearner = deps.graphLearner ?? null;
+        this.metaSelector = deps.metaSelector ?? null;
+        this.predictiveDropout = deps.predictiveDropout ?? null;
+        this.orchestrationEmbedder = deps.orchestrationEmbedder ?? null;
         this.log = deps.log.child('learning');
     }
     /**
@@ -118,6 +126,46 @@ export class LearningEngine {
             const intervention = orchestration.phases.some((p) => p.config.requiresApproval);
             this.autonomyTracker.record(config.pattern, success, intervention);
         }
+        // Record cross-run edges in the execution graph
+        if (this.graphLearner) {
+            try {
+                this.graphLearner.recordCrossRunEdges(config.id);
+            }
+            catch {
+                /* Don't fail orchestration if graph learning fails */
+            }
+        }
+        // Update meta-pattern selector from outcome (Feature 4)
+        if (this.metaSelector) {
+            try {
+                this.metaSelector.updateFromOutcome(config.id, orchestration.status === 'completed');
+            }
+            catch { /* silent */ }
+        }
+        // Train predictive dropout from agent contribution data (Feature 5)
+        if (this.predictiveDropout) {
+            try {
+                for (const phase of orchestration.phases) {
+                    for (const agent of phase.agents) {
+                        this.predictiveDropout.train({
+                            agentType: agent.config.name,
+                            phaseKind: phase.config.kind ?? 'implement',
+                            fileCount: agent.result?.filesTouched?.length ?? 0,
+                            pattern: config.pattern,
+                            contributed: !!(agent.result?.output?.length),
+                        });
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+            catch { /* silent */ }
+        }
+        // Store orchestration embedding for similarity search
+        if (this.orchestrationEmbedder) {
+            try {
+                this.orchestrationEmbedder.storeEmbedding(config.id);
+            }
+            catch { /* silent */ }
+        }
     }
     /**
      * Find similar past traces for a task description.
@@ -163,6 +211,22 @@ export class LearningEngine {
         catch {
             /* Don't fail planning if heuristic retrieval fails */
         }
+        // Enrich with pattern success rates from the graph
+        if (this.graphLearner) {
+            try {
+                const stats = this.graphLearner.getPatternStats(plan.pattern);
+                if (stats.length > 0) {
+                    const patternContext = this.graphLearner.formatPatternContext(stats);
+                    for (const agent of plan.phases[0]?.agents ?? []) {
+                        agent.prompt = `${patternContext}\n\n${agent.prompt}`;
+                    }
+                    this.log.info('Injected pattern stats into plan', { pattern: plan.pattern });
+                }
+            }
+            catch {
+                /* Don't fail planning if graph query fails */
+            }
+        }
     }
     /**
      * Inject relevant past solutions into the first phase of a plan.

package/dist/runtime/learning-engine.js.map

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package/package.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "swarm-engine",
-  "version": "1.3.0",
-  "description": "Multi-agent orchestration for AI coding tools — your agents, orchestrated",
+  "version": "1.38.0",
+  "description": "Self-aware multi-agent orchestration engine with knowledge graph, causal inference, GNN failure prediction, and self-evolving rules — pure TypeScript",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
   "types": "dist/index.d.ts",