sparkforensics-server 0.5.2 → 0.8.1

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (445) hide show
  1. package/index.js +16 -7
  2. package/package.json +1 -1
  3. package/public/assets/AutoscalingChurn-DenWKTv-.js +1 -0
  4. package/public/assets/CacheUtilization-DLz7NdjV.js +1 -0
  5. package/public/assets/CachingOpportunity-zpQIqhzm.js +1 -0
  6. package/public/assets/ChartTheme-DAiARbLP.js +8 -0
  7. package/public/assets/ColdStart-C-9HjxWl.js +1 -0
  8. package/public/assets/ConfigAudit-D0V9tcrJ.js +1 -0
  9. package/public/assets/CoreUsageArea-yeerrljd.js +1 -0
  10. package/public/assets/Dashboard-DkUPrHKV.js +1 -0
  11. package/public/assets/DisclosureContext-DK1_iz6J.js +1 -0
  12. package/public/assets/DuplicatePlanSubtree-xDNDbCd3.js +1 -0
  13. package/public/assets/DurationHistogram-B6jsE0Ov.js +1 -0
  14. package/public/assets/EmptyState-C1uL40VU.js +1 -0
  15. package/public/assets/ExecutorUtilization-DXDZKmSc.js +1 -0
  16. package/public/assets/GcPressure-MRf7I4IG.js +1 -0
  17. package/public/assets/ImpactEstimate-Dm3xWbzV.js +1 -0
  18. package/public/assets/IncompleteRun-CaLOhMtf.js +1 -0
  19. package/public/assets/JobFailures-CzmzlvhO.js +1 -0
  20. package/public/assets/MemoryUtilization-AWUMUjCH.js +1 -0
  21. package/public/assets/NestedLoopJoin-C9sNr6Ss.js +1 -0
  22. package/public/assets/OverBroadcast-BOmRE6ca.js +1 -0
  23. package/public/assets/PartitionHint-BL2EmJfE.js +1 -0
  24. package/public/assets/PartitionSizing-BzBySvUq.js +1 -0
  25. package/public/assets/PlanExplorer-DdiQRcJU.js +1 -0
  26. package/public/assets/PlanGraphRoute-CIH9gBuR.js +1 -0
  27. package/public/assets/PlanView-B1hxzFRs.js +2 -0
  28. package/public/assets/PythonUdf-DvgCCueD.js +1 -0
  29. package/public/assets/RetryWaste-uXXu_CyM.js +1 -0
  30. package/public/assets/RowPagination-C-LzWkI5.js +1 -0
  31. package/public/assets/RowStatusCluster-Dbtmte7l.js +1 -0
  32. package/public/assets/ShuffleIO-nALwzC1_.js +1 -0
  33. package/public/assets/Skew-CHMEKgvk.js +1 -0
  34. package/public/assets/SlowHost-yyvjpHk6.js +1 -0
  35. package/public/assets/SmallFiles-y6odJ97n.js +1 -0
  36. package/public/assets/SpeculationWaste-C-SD2LOt.js +1 -0
  37. package/public/assets/Spill-DHTMmOup.js +1 -0
  38. package/public/assets/StageFailed-CQ3DxC9R.js +1 -0
  39. package/public/assets/StageFindingGroup-BgYLyj5q.js +1 -0
  40. package/public/assets/StageHeader-CIETkjVZ.js +1 -0
  41. package/public/assets/StagePill--P7PDd3s.js +1 -0
  42. package/public/assets/StageShape-BIv8vx_o.js +1 -0
  43. package/public/assets/StageSlowness-MMqzERxN.js +1 -0
  44. package/public/assets/Straggler-BgrY7AyW.js +1 -0
  45. package/public/assets/TaskFailures-BHHyKYTs.js +1 -0
  46. package/public/assets/TinyTask-DDScNhCl.js +1 -0
  47. package/public/assets/UnderBroadcast-CGIC04TI.js +1 -0
  48. package/public/assets/WidgetLeadSummary-CXFZP00C.js +1 -0
  49. package/public/assets/button-DbpTz2yk.js +1 -0
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  53. package/public/assets/detector-registry-Bp8hrLua.js +2 -0
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  67. package/public/assets/{parser-worker-CA5RxqKc.js → parser-worker-CRIOPMOW.js} +8 -8
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class="aside-content" data-v-39a288b8><div class="VPDocAside" data-v-39a288b8 data-v-3f215769><!--[--><!--]--><!--[--><!--]--><nav aria-labelledby="doc-outline-aria-label" class="VPDocAsideOutline" data-v-3f215769 data-v-a5bbad30><div class="content" data-v-a5bbad30><div class="outline-marker" data-v-a5bbad30></div><div aria-level="2" class="outline-title" id="doc-outline-aria-label" role="heading" data-v-a5bbad30>On this page</div><ul class="VPDocOutlineItem root" data-v-a5bbad30 data-v-b933a997><!--[--><!--]--></ul></div></nav><!--[--><!--]--><div class="spacer" data-v-3f215769></div><!--[--><!--]--><!----><!--[--><!--]--><!--[--><!--]--></div></div></div></div><div class="content" data-v-39a288b8><div class="content-container" data-v-39a288b8><!--[--><!--]--><main class="main" data-v-39a288b8><div style="position:relative;" class="vp-doc _docs_contributor-guide_architecture_impact-estimation" data-v-39a288b8><div><h1 id="impact-estimation" tabindex="-1">Impact estimation <a class="header-anchor" href="#impact-estimation" aria-label="Permalink to &quot;Impact estimation&quot;">​</a></h1><p>Every finding covered by this section carries an optional <code>impactEstimate: {basis, wallClock, estimateMethod, rawWaste?, coreTimeMs?}</code> (<code>packages/core/src/types.ts</code>), attached by its <code>DETECTORS</code> entry&#39;s <code>estimate()</code> (<code>packages/core/src/detectors.ts</code>), which <code>estimateImpact()</code> (<code>packages/core/src/impact-estimator.ts</code>) runs as a post-pass once detection and suppression finish (<code>packages/core/src/analyzer.ts</code>). The waste models those methods compose (assumed throughputs, per-stage measurements, the occupancy clip wrappers) live in <code>packages/core/src/impact-model.ts</code>, and <code>analyze()</code> builds the one <code>EstimateCtx</code> (<code>stages</code>, <code>occupancy</code>, <code>totalCores</code>) every <code>estimate()</code> and every detector&#39;s runtime floor reads. <code>estimateMethod</code> (&#39;measured&#39; | &#39;modeled&#39; | &#39;none&#39;) is a distinct axis from the per-finding <code>confidence</code> field (<a href="./board-widgets.html#confidence-metadata">Confidence metadata</a>): <code>confidence</code> says how much to trust the finding itself, <code>estimateMethod</code> says how its impact number was derived. <code>&#39;none&#39;</code> marks a purely informational finding with no waste model at all (<code>configAudit</code>, <code>stageFailed</code>, <code>failures</code>, <code>incompleteRun</code>, <code>slowHost</code>&#39;s byte-dimension multiDim shapes, <code>gc</code>&#39;s low-GC direction, <code>cacheUtilization</code>&#39;s <code>storageUnobserved</code> caveat, <code>duplicatePlanSubtree</code> when its repeats differ or map to no stage): it&#39;s distinct from <code>&#39;measured&#39;</code>/<code>&#39;modeled&#39;</code>, which both attach a real (if approximate) formula. <code>basis</code> is one of:</p><ul><li><code>&#39;serial&#39;</code>: the tied stage ran (effectively) alone; <code>wallClock</code> is a near-point estimate, <code>low === high</code>.</li><li><code>&#39;contended&#39;</code>: the tied stage shared wall-clock time with others; <code>wallClock</code> is an honest range, <code>high</code> optimistic (assumes the fix could still fully land), <code>low</code> the guaranteed floor.</li><li><code>&#39;resourceOnly&#39;</code>: no wall-clock claim is defensible (not stage-tied by nature, or the stage was excluded from the occupancy sweep), <code>wallClock: null</code>, but the formula&#39;s real signal survives in <code>rawWaste</code>.</li><li><code>&#39;informational&#39;</code>: no quantifiable magnitude at all, <code>wallClock: null</code>, no <code>rawWaste</code>.</li></ul><p><code>rawWaste</code> is not exclusive to <code>resourceOnly</code>/<code>informational</code> findings: every <code>serial</code>/ <code>contended</code> finding carries it too (the only exceptions are <code>coldStart</code>, whose <code>wallClock</code> figure is already unclipped, and <code>estimateMethod: &#39;none&#39;</code> findings, which have no formula at all), holding the formula&#39;s pre-clip magnitude in the formula&#39;s own natural unit (ms, bytes or core-ms). <code>wallClock</code> is what the occupancy model says is recoverable, which clips against the stage&#39;s own physical floor; <code>rawWaste</code> is what the stage really wasted either way. The two answer different questions.</p><p><code>coreTimeMs</code> is the busy core time the fix removes, the executor task time, as <code>{low, high}</code> core-milliseconds with <code>low === high</code>, or <code>null</code> when the detector measures none (never 0 for unknown). <code>estimateImpact()</code> sets it for every estimate through <code>coreTimeFor()</code> in <code>packages/core/src/impact-model.ts</code>, and only from a measured figure: skew and straggler&#39;s removed task time (<code>tailClaimImpact()</code> sets it from the claim&#39;s <code>removedCoreWorkMs</code>), or the raw figure of a type in <code>MEASURED_CORE_TIME_FIGURE</code>: gc&#39;s <code>jvmGCTime</code> (<code>coreMs</code>) and the cross-task executor-time <code>ms</code> sums of <code>retryWaste</code> and <code>speculationWaste</code>. These are set even when the log has no executor cores. A wall-clock claim is never converted to core time, so every finding with only a wall-clock claim gets <code>null</code>. A modeled figure, one that rests on an assumed constant, gets <code>null</code> too: coreLocality&#39;s <code>coreMs</code> (non-local tasks × <code>NETWORK_FETCH_PENALTY_MS</code>) and the <code>coreHours</code> of <code>autoscalingChurn</code> and <code>jobFailureRate</code>. <code>estimateMethod</code> does not decide this, because it describes the wall-clock figure: gc&#39;s is <code>modeled</code> while its <code>jvmGCTime</code> is read from the log. <code>executorCpuTime</code> is never read because it leaves out Python worker CPU.</p><p>Every surface reads <code>coreTimeMs</code> and <code>remediation</code> from the one <code>analyze()</code> result: the dashboard stores it, the HTML export ships it in its <code>catalog</code>, and the CLI report and MCP tools put it in their finding rows through <code>buildEvidenceReport()</code>. <code>surface-parity.test.js</code> compares the four on the public corpus logs.</p><p><code>coreTimeMs</code> is busy time only. A <code>coreMs</code>/<code>coreHours</code> raw figure that counts allocated capacity no task ran on carries <code>rawWaste.idle: true</code>: <code>utilization</code> (<code>coreHours</code>) and <code>stageShape</code>&#39;s <code>lowParallelism</code> and <code>taskStageSkew</code> (<code>coreMs</code>). <code>coreTimeFor()</code> gives those <code>null</code>, and <code>rawWasteMeaning()</code> in <code>packages/core/src/impact-format.ts</code> labels them &quot;of idle core capacity&quot; instead of &quot;of core time&quot; on every surface. <code>memoryUtilization</code>&#39;s <code>idleCores</code> counts <code>mbSeconds</code>, which has no core time either. A stage&#39;s slow tail is also counted once: <code>skew</code> and <code>straggler</code> both measure the task time removed from it, so on one stage <code>skew</code> carries it and <code>straggler</code> has <code>null</code> (<code>countTailCoreTimeOnce()</code> in <code>packages/core/src/impact-estimator.ts</code>).</p><h2 id="occupancy-weighted-attribution" tabindex="-1">Occupancy-weighted attribution <a class="header-anchor" href="#occupancy-weighted-attribution" aria-label="Permalink to &quot;Occupancy-weighted attribution&quot;">​</a></h2><p><code>packages/core/src/occupancy.ts</code> sweeps every stage&#39;s observed <code>[submittedAt, completedAt)</code> window and splits each instant&#39;s wall-clock among concurrently-active stages proportional to <code>coreWeight(S) = stage.executorRunTime / stageDurationMs</code> (an average-concurrency proxy, held constant across the stage&#39;s whole window: this codebase has no per-task timestamps outside the parser worker to do better). Summing a stage&#39;s share across its own window gives its <code>occupancy(S)</code>; <code>gate(S) = occupancy(S) / duration(S) ∈ [0, 1]</code> is the single number the estimate reads. 1.0 means the stage ran completely alone; 0 means the stage had zero <code>executorRunTime</code> while overlapping other, positive-weight stages, so it got no share of the shared window. When every stage active over an interval has zero weight (no <code>executorRunTime</code>), that interval is split equally among them instead, so a stage that ran alone still gets <code>gate</code> 1. Stages with <code>duration(S) &lt;= 0</code> (Spark-skipped stages, or a malformed <code>submittedAt === completedAt</code>) are excluded from the sweep entirely.</p><p><code>efficiency-model.ts</code> reports <code>floorZeroSkewMs</code> (total task time / peak concurrent cores) as its theoretical floor.</p><p><code>ceiling(S) = max(stage.taskDurationMax, stage.executorRunTime / totalCores)</code> is a physical floor on a stage&#39;s own duration: bounded below by its single longest task (unsplittable no matter how much parallelism exists) or by its core-work spread across every core in the cluster, whichever is larger. Every waste formula&#39;s raw claim is clipped against it before gate-weighting: <code>wasteMs_clipped(S) = min(wasteMs_claimed, max(0, duration(S) - ceiling(S)))</code>, so a finding can never claim to save more than the portion of the stage&#39;s observed duration that sits above its own unbeatable floor.</p><p><code>skew</code> and <code>straggler</code> are the exception (<code>estimateSingleStage</code>&#39;s <code>shortensLongestTask</code> option, passed by <code>detectors.ts</code>&#39;s <code>tailClaimImpact</code>, which both their <code>estimate()</code> and their <code>detect()</code> runtime-floor gate call on the same tail claim, so firing and display agree; <code>stageSlowness</code>&#39;s more-partitions estimate passes it too, since splitting partitions splits the longest task). Their claim shortens the stage&#39;s longest task itself, so <code>taskDurationMax</code> can&#39;t be their floor: clipping against it would cap a stage gated by one straggler at <code>duration(S) − taskDurationMax</code>, about zero, exactly when the fix recovers the most. Their floor is instead the longest task the fix leaves plus the core work the fix leaves, <code>max(taskDurationMax − wasteMs_claimed, longestTaskAfterFixMs, (stage.executorRunTime − removed) / totalCores)</code>, where <code>removed</code> (<code>tailRemovedWorkMs</code>) is the larger of the finding&#39;s single-task delta (see below) and <code>stragglerExcessMs</code>, and <code>longestTaskAfterFixMs</code> is the longest task the fix leaves for <code>skew</code> and <code>straggler</code> (see below). Counting the stragglers&#39; own run time as work the stage can&#39;t shed would floor a stage whose tail is most of its core time near its observed duration.</p><p>The claim itself is <code>tailRecoveryMs</code> (<code>occupancy.ts</code>), which returns the stage&#39;s <code>tailReplayRecoveryMs</code>: <code>finalizeStage</code> replays the stage&#39;s own tasks with list scheduling (<code>computeTailReplayRecoveryMs</code> in <code>stage-quantiles.ts</code>: slots = <code>peakConcurrentTasks</code>, at least 1 and at most the task count; tasks in launch order, equal launch times in task-array order, each on the slot that frees first) once with the real durations and once with every task over 4× P50 capped at P50, and takes the difference. It runs only on stages with a task over 4× P50 (every other stage recovers 0) and costs a launch-order index and a slot heap per stage: 5-9 ms over the 236 such stages (23,641 tasks) of the largest real log, whose parse takes 5.5-6.9 s. <code>dev/eval-tail-replay.mjs</code> keeps an independent copy of the replay as its ground truth, and the two agree on every tail stage of the real logs and the corpus.</p><p>A stage without the field (one built by hand, as in detector tests) falls back to a stage-level estimate: the larger of the single-task delta above and <code>stragglerExcessMs / peakConcurrentTasks</code>, the summed excess over P50 of every task slower than 4× P50, spread over the most tasks the stage ever ran at once. That estimate assumes the tail either gates the stage through one task or spreads evenly over the slots; the replay knows when each slow task launched. Stragglers clustered at the end of a stage recover more than the even spread (one real stage: 12 of 200 tasks over 4× P50 on 29 slots, 89.0s estimated, 127.3s replayed), a long task launched early overlaps the rest of the stage and recovers less than its excess (8.4s estimated, 3.0s replayed), and a speculation-driven stage with no task over 4× P50 recovers nothing (5.8s estimated on two real stages).</p><p>The single-task deltas set the removed work above and the fallback estimate. <code>straggler</code>&#39;s runs from <code>taskDurationMax</code> down to the longest task its fix leaves (<code>stragglerFixLongestTaskMs</code>), not down to P50: the fix brings every task over 4× P50 to the median, so the stage still waits on its longest task at or under that (<code>longestNonStragglerMs</code>, from <code>finalizeStage</code>), and that task is also passed as a floor (<code>longestTaskAfterFixMs</code>). A speculation-driven finding with no task over 4× P50 keeps the P50 delta. <code>skew</code> keeps its P50 delta, since repartitioning may even out tasks under 4× P50 too, but takes the same <code>longestTaskAfterFixMs</code> floor: without it a 100 s stage whose next-longest task ran 39 s would have skew claiming 90 s where straggler claims 61 s.</p><p><code>analyzer.ts</code> feeds this <code>totalCores</code> from <code>packages/core/src/core-count.ts</code>&#39;s <code>computePeakConcurrentCores(app, executorsAdded, executorsRemoved)</code> (the same peak concurrent capacity <code>efficiency-model.ts</code>, <code>wasted-core-hours.ts</code> and the <code>utilization</code>/<code>memoryUtilization</code> detectors use), not <code>computeTotalCores</code>, which only <code>scaling-sim.ts</code> uses. <code>computeTotalCores</code> sums every <code>ExecutorAdded</code> event&#39;s cores regardless of overlap, so under dynamic allocation or executor replacement it can far exceed the cores ever actually concurrent, which understates <code>ceiling(S)</code> and lets churn inflate a finding&#39;s claimed wall-clock. <code>computePeakConcurrentCores</code> instead sweeps add/remove events by timestamp and tracks the running total&#39;s peak, so a churned-through executor&#39;s cores are never double-counted against its replacement&#39;s. Same-timestamp events tie-break by delta ascending, so a removal applies before a same-instant replacement&#39;s addition (otherwise a same-instant swap would momentarily double-count both as concurrent). If every <code>executorsAdded</code> entry lacks <code>totalCores</code> the cores sweep peaks at zero and tells us nothing; the function then falls back to sweeping peak <em>executor count</em> instead (still concurrency-aware, just cores-blind) and multiplies by the configured per-executor core count, rather than falling back to <code>executorsAdded.length × cores</code>, which overcounts under churn.</p><p>Per-finding estimate, using <code>wasteMs_clipped(S)</code>:</p><ul><li><code>gate(S) &gt;= 0.999</code>: <code>basis: &#39;serial&#39;</code>, <code>low = high = wasteMs_clipped(S)</code>.</li><li><code>gate(S) &lt; 0.999</code>: <code>basis: &#39;contended&#39;</code>, <code>high = wasteMs_clipped(S)</code>, <code>low = wasteMs_clipped(S) * gate(S)</code>.</li></ul><p>A finding spanning multiple stages (<code>stageIds</code>, plural) sums each stage&#39;s own estimate and caps the joint total at the union of just that finding&#39;s own stage windows (via <code>mergeIntervals</code>, <code>packages/core/src/intervals.ts</code>): <code>high = min(Σ high_i, unionMs(stageIds))</code>, <code>low = min(Σ low_i, unionMs(stageIds))</code>. This is what prevents overclaiming when two or more of a finding&#39;s stages overlap in wall-clock time: a plain sum-and-cap. The union cap can force <code>low === high</code> numerically even when the constituent stages were individually contended (e.g. two fully-overlapping stages each at <code>gate</code> 0.5), so <code>basis</code> isn&#39;t derived from that numeric equality: a multi-stage finding gets <code>basis: &#39;serial&#39;</code> only when every one of its per-stage estimates was itself <code>&#39;serial&#39;</code>; otherwise <code>&#39;contended&#39;</code>.</p><p>Regression guard: a finding whose stage (or, for a multi-stage finding, every one of its stages) ran alone (<code>gate &gt;= 0.95</code>, deliberately looser than the <code>0.999</code> &quot;serial&quot; cutoff above: this guard exists to catch egregious false zeros, not to gate which <code>basis</code> a finding gets) with a real underlying magnitude (<code>rawWaste.value &gt; 0</code>) must never report <code>wallClock.high === 0</code> or <code>basis: &#39;informational&#39;/&#39;resourceOnly&#39;</code>. Covered by <code>packages/core/test/impact-estimator-real-log.test.js</code> (run with <code>npm run test:core</code>; skipped unless the <code>private-log-01.zstd</code> fixture is in <code>examples/</code>); relies on <code>rawWaste</code> being attached to every serial/contended-capable formula (see above), so it&#39;s blind to <code>coldStart</code>, the purely informational (<code>estimateMethod: &#39;none&#39;</code>) finding types, <code>stageShape</code> (resourceOnly by design) and <code>shuffle</code> findings whose stage measured zero fetch wait (a measured zero, not a clip artifact).</p><p>Real-log spot-check (<code>private-log-01.zstd</code>): median <code>gate</code> across stages was <code>≈0.34</code> (0.3428060791718594 exactly); <code>collectRun</code> plus the occupancy sweep together took <code>≈6,589</code>ms on the largest fixture measured (<code>private-log-03.zstd</code>, <code>1169</code> stages): parse-dominated, the sweep alone was not isolated by this measurement, but not a magnitude that suggests a regression either.</p></div></div></main><footer class="VPDocFooter" data-v-39a288b8 data-v-e257564d><!--[--><!--]--><!----><nav class="prev-next" aria-labelledby="doc-footer-aria-label" data-v-e257564d><span class="visually-hidden" id="doc-footer-aria-label" data-v-e257564d>Pager</span><div class="pager" data-v-e257564d><a class="VPLink link pager-link prev" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/detector-contract/threshold-tables.html" data-v-e257564d><!--[--><span class="desc" data-v-e257564d>Previous page</span><span class="title" data-v-e257564d>Threshold tables</span><!--]--></a></div><div class="pager" data-v-e257564d><a class="VPLink link pager-link next" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/impact-estimation/stage-union-rollup.html" data-v-e257564d><!--[--><span class="desc" data-v-e257564d>Next page</span><span class="title" data-v-e257564d>Stage union rollup</span><!--]--></a></div></nav></footer><!--[--><!--]--></div></div></div><!--[--><!--]--></div></div><!----><!--[--><!--]--></div></div>
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collapsed is-link has-active" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><h3 class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Architecture</h3><!--]--></a><div class="caret" role="button" aria-label="toggle section" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><span class="vpi-chevron-right caret-icon" data-v-b3fd67f8></span></div></div><div class="items" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><div class="VPSidebarItem level-2 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/overview.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Overview</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><section class="VPSidebarItem level-2 collapsible collapsed is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/worker-protocol.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><h4 class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Worker protocol</h4><!--]--></a><div class="caret" role="button" aria-label="toggle section" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><span class="vpi-chevron-right caret-icon" data-v-b3fd67f8></span></div></div><div class="items" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/worker-protocol/evidence-availability.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Evidence availability</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/worker-protocol/evidence-report.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Evidence report and finding identity</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/worker-protocol/cli-and-mcp.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>CLI and MCP server</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/worker-protocol/core-and-event-validation.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Core and event validation</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><!--]--></div></section><section class="VPSidebarItem level-2 collapsible collapsed is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/state-and-history.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><h4 class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>State & history intake</h4><!--]--></a><div class="caret" role="button" aria-label="toggle section" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><span class="vpi-chevron-right caret-icon" data-v-b3fd67f8></span></div></div><div class="items" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/state-and-history/run-comparison-internals.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Run comparison internals</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/state-and-history/history-server-intake.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>History Server intake</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><!--]--></div></section><section class="VPSidebarItem level-2 collapsible collapsed is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/detector-contract.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><h4 class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Detector contract</h4><!--]--></a><div class="caret" role="button" aria-label="toggle section" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><span class="vpi-chevron-right caret-icon" data-v-b3fd67f8></span></div></div><div class="items" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/detector-contract/plan-attribution.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Plan attribution</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/detector-contract/threshold-tables.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Threshold tables</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><!--]--></div></section><section class="VPSidebarItem level-2 collapsible collapsed is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/impact-estimation.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><h4 class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Impact estimation</h4><!--]--></a><div class="caret" role="button" aria-label="toggle section" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><span class="vpi-chevron-right caret-icon" data-v-b3fd67f8></span></div></div><div class="items" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/impact-estimation/stage-union-rollup.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Stage union rollup</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/impact-estimation/caveats-tuning-and-coverage.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Caveats, tuning and coverage</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><!--]--></div></section><section class="VPSidebarItem level-2 collapsible collapsed is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/widget-rendering.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><h4 class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Widget rendering</h4><!--]--></a><div class="caret" role="button" aria-label="toggle section" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><span class="vpi-chevron-right caret-icon" data-v-b3fd67f8></span></div></div><div class="items" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/widget-rendering/findings-tab.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Findings tab</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/widget-rendering/list-sort-mode.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>List sort mode</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/widget-rendering/row-expand-contract.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Row/expand contract</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/widget-rendering/reference-section.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>ReferenceSection</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/widget-rendering/investigation-routing.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Investigation routing</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><!--]--></div></section><section class="VPSidebarItem level-2 collapsible collapsed is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/board-widgets.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><h4 class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Board widgets</h4><!--]--></a><div class="caret" role="button" aria-label="toggle section" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><span class="vpi-chevron-right caret-icon" data-v-b3fd67f8></span></div></div><div class="items" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/board-widgets/plan-advisor.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Plan Advisor</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/board-widgets/caching-and-memory.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Caching and memory widgets</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/board-widgets/visual-system-and-templating.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Visual system and templating</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><!--]--></div></section><section class="VPSidebarItem level-2 collapsible collapsed is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/drill-down.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><h4 class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Drill-down</h4><!--]--></a><div class="caret" role="button" aria-label="toggle section" tabindex="0" data-v-b3fd67f8><span class="vpi-chevron-right caret-icon" data-v-b3fd67f8></span></div></div><div class="items" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><div class="VPSidebarItem level-3 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/drill-down/plan-graph.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Plan graph</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><!--]--></div></section><!--]--></div></section><div class="VPSidebarItem level-1 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/testing.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Testing & verification</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><div class="VPSidebarItem level-1 is-link" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="item" data-v-b3fd67f8><div class="indicator" data-v-b3fd67f8></div><a class="VPLink link link" href="/docs/contributor-guide/contributing.html" data-v-b3fd67f8><!--[--><p class="text" data-v-b3fd67f8>Contributing</p><!--]--></a><!----></div><!----></div><!--]--></div></section></div><!--]--><!--[--><!--]--></nav></aside><div class="VPContent has-sidebar" id="VPContent" data-v-5d98c3a5 data-v-1428d186><div class="VPDoc has-sidebar has-aside" data-v-1428d186 data-v-39a288b8><!--[--><!--]--><div class="container" data-v-39a288b8><div class="aside" data-v-39a288b8><div class="aside-curtain" data-v-39a288b8></div><div class="aside-container" data-v-39a288b8><div class="aside-content" data-v-39a288b8><div class="VPDocAside" data-v-39a288b8 data-v-3f215769><!--[--><!--]--><!--[--><!--]--><nav aria-labelledby="doc-outline-aria-label" class="VPDocAsideOutline" data-v-3f215769 data-v-a5bbad30><div class="content" data-v-a5bbad30><div class="outline-marker" data-v-a5bbad30></div><div aria-level="2" class="outline-title" id="doc-outline-aria-label" role="heading" data-v-a5bbad30>On this page</div><ul class="VPDocOutlineItem root" data-v-a5bbad30 data-v-b933a997><!--[--><!--]--></ul></div></nav><!--[--><!--]--><div class="spacer" data-v-3f215769></div><!--[--><!--]--><!----><!--[--><!--]--><!--[--><!--]--></div></div></div></div><div class="content" data-v-39a288b8><div class="content-container" data-v-39a288b8><!--[--><!--]--><main class="main" data-v-39a288b8><div style="position:relative;" class="vp-doc _docs_contributor-guide_architecture_impact-estimation" data-v-39a288b8><div><h1 id="impact-estimation" tabindex="-1">Impact estimation <a class="header-anchor" href="#impact-estimation" aria-label="Permalink to &quot;Impact estimation&quot;">​</a></h1><p>Every finding covered by this section carries an optional <code>impactEstimate: {basis, wallClock, estimateMethod, rawWaste?, coreTimeMs?, idleCoreTimeMs?}</code> (<code>packages/core/src/types.ts</code>), attached by its <code>DETECTORS</code> entry&#39;s <code>estimate()</code> (<code>packages/core/src/detectors.ts</code>), which <code>estimateImpact()</code> (<code>packages/core/src/impact-estimator.ts</code>) runs as a post-pass once detection and suppression finish (<code>packages/core/src/analyzer.ts</code>). The waste models those methods compose (assumed throughputs, per-stage measurements, the occupancy clip wrappers) live in <code>packages/core/src/impact-model.ts</code>, and <code>analyze()</code> builds the one <code>EstimateCtx</code> (<code>stages</code>, <code>occupancy</code>, <code>totalCores</code>) every <code>estimate()</code> and every detector&#39;s runtime floor reads. <code>estimateMethod</code> (&#39;measured&#39; | &#39;modeled&#39; | &#39;none&#39;) is a distinct axis from the per-finding <code>confidence</code> field (<a href="./board-widgets.html#confidence-metadata">Confidence metadata</a>): <code>confidence</code> says how much to trust the finding itself, <code>estimateMethod</code> says how its impact number was derived. <code>&#39;none&#39;</code> marks a purely informational finding with no waste model at all (<code>configAudit</code>, <code>stageFailed</code>, <code>failures</code>, <code>incompleteRun</code>, <code>slowHost</code>&#39;s byte-dimension multiDim shapes, <code>gc</code>&#39;s low-GC direction, <code>cacheUtilization</code>&#39;s <code>storageUnobserved</code> caveat, <code>duplicatePlanSubtree</code> when its repeats differ or map to no stage): it&#39;s distinct from <code>&#39;measured&#39;</code>/<code>&#39;modeled&#39;</code>, which both attach a real (if approximate) formula. <code>basis</code> is one of:</p><ul><li><code>&#39;serial&#39;</code>: the tied stage ran (effectively) alone; <code>wallClock</code> is a near-point estimate, <code>low === high</code>.</li><li><code>&#39;contended&#39;</code>: the tied stage shared wall-clock time with others; <code>wallClock</code> is an honest range, <code>high</code> optimistic (assumes the fix could still fully land), <code>low</code> the guaranteed floor.</li><li><code>&#39;resourceOnly&#39;</code>: no wall-clock claim is defensible (not stage-tied by nature, or the stage was excluded from the occupancy sweep), <code>wallClock: null</code>, but the formula&#39;s real signal survives in <code>rawWaste</code>.</li><li><code>&#39;informational&#39;</code>: no quantifiable magnitude at all, <code>wallClock: null</code>, no <code>rawWaste</code>.</li></ul><p><code>rawWaste</code> is not exclusive to <code>resourceOnly</code>/<code>informational</code> findings: every <code>serial</code>/ <code>contended</code> finding carries it too (the only exceptions are <code>coldStart</code>, whose <code>wallClock</code> figure is already unclipped, and <code>estimateMethod: &#39;none&#39;</code> findings, which have no formula at all), holding the formula&#39;s pre-clip magnitude in the formula&#39;s own natural unit (ms, bytes or core-ms). <code>wallClock</code> is what the occupancy model says is recoverable, which clips against the stage&#39;s own physical floor; <code>rawWaste</code> is what the stage really wasted either way. The two answer different questions.</p><p><code>coreTimeMs</code> is the busy core time the fix removes, the executor task time, as <code>{low, high}</code> core-milliseconds with <code>low === high</code>, or <code>null</code> when the detector measures none (never 0 for unknown). <code>estimateImpact()</code> sets it for every estimate through <code>coreTimeFor()</code> in <code>packages/core/src/impact-model.ts</code>, and only from a measured figure: skew and straggler&#39;s removed task time (<code>tailClaimImpact()</code> sets it from the claim&#39;s <code>removedCoreWorkMs</code>), or the raw figure of a type in <code>MEASURED_CORE_TIME_FIGURE</code>: gc&#39;s <code>jvmGCTime</code> (<code>coreMs</code>) and the cross-task executor-time <code>ms</code> sums of <code>retryWaste</code> and <code>speculationWaste</code>. These are set even when the log has no executor cores. A wall-clock claim is never converted to core time, so every finding with only a wall-clock claim gets <code>null</code>. A modeled figure, one that rests on an assumed constant, gets <code>null</code> too: coreLocality&#39;s <code>coreMs</code> (non-local tasks × <code>NETWORK_FETCH_PENALTY_MS</code>) and the <code>coreHours</code> of <code>autoscalingChurn</code> and <code>jobFailureRate</code>. <code>estimateMethod</code> does not decide this, because it describes the wall-clock figure: gc&#39;s is <code>modeled</code> while its <code>jvmGCTime</code> is read from the log. <code>executorCpuTime</code> is never read because it leaves out Python worker CPU.</p><p>A modeled figure on a serial basis carries no core time either. <code>partitionSizing</code>&#39;s <code>lowShuffleParallelism</code> reports <code>rawWaste</code> in <code>ms</code>: stage wall-clock that more partitions shorten, not task work they remove, so it is ranked on <code>wallClock</code>.</p><p>Every surface reads <code>coreTimeMs</code> and <code>remediation</code> from the one <code>analyze()</code> result: the dashboard stores it, the HTML export ships it in its <code>catalog</code>, and the CLI report and MCP tools put it in their finding rows through <code>buildEvidenceReport()</code>. <code>surface-parity.test.js</code> compares the four on the public corpus logs.</p><p>Every surface formats savings through <code>packages/core/src/impact-format.ts</code>. A figure that rounds to zero (&quot;0s&quot;, &quot;0.0 core-h&quot;) reads as a measured nothing, so each formatter shows no figure for it.</p><p><code>coreTimeMs</code> is busy time only. A <code>coreMs</code>/<code>coreHours</code> raw figure that counts allocated capacity no task ran on carries <code>rawWaste.idle: true</code>: <code>utilization</code> (<code>coreHours</code>) and <code>stageShape</code>&#39;s <code>lowParallelism</code> and <code>taskStageSkew</code> (<code>coreMs</code>). <code>coreTimeFor()</code> gives those <code>null</code>, and <code>rawWasteMeaning()</code> in <code>packages/core/src/impact-format.ts</code> labels them &quot;of idle core capacity&quot; instead of &quot;of core time&quot; on every surface. <code>memoryUtilization</code>&#39;s <code>idleCores</code> counts <code>mbSeconds</code>, which has no core time either. <code>utilization</code> also reports the idle figure as <code>idleCoreTimeMs</code> (<code>{low, high}</code> core-milliseconds, <code>low === high</code>): <code>allocatedCoreMs - busy core-ms</code>, which is <code>rawWaste</code> in core-ms, set by its <code>estimate()</code> and never read by <code>coreTimeFor()</code>. The capacity is <code>allocatedCoreMs()</code> in <code>packages/core/src/allocation.ts</code>, the figure behind <code>metrics.allocation.coreHours</code>. <code>idleCores</code> is the memory view of the same condition and has none. A stage&#39;s slow tail is also counted once: <code>skew</code> and <code>straggler</code> both measure the task time removed from it, so on one stage <code>skew</code> carries it and <code>straggler</code> has <code>null</code> (<code>countTailCoreTimeOnce()</code> in <code>packages/core/src/impact-estimator.ts</code>).</p><h2 id="occupancy-weighted-attribution" tabindex="-1">Occupancy-weighted attribution <a class="header-anchor" href="#occupancy-weighted-attribution" aria-label="Permalink to &quot;Occupancy-weighted attribution&quot;">​</a></h2><p><code>packages/core/src/occupancy.ts</code> sweeps every stage&#39;s observed <code>[submittedAt, completedAt)</code> window and splits each instant&#39;s wall-clock among concurrently-active stages proportional to <code>coreWeight(S) = stage.executorRunTime / stageDurationMs</code> (an average-concurrency proxy, held constant across the stage&#39;s whole window: this codebase has no per-task timestamps outside the parser worker to do better). Summing a stage&#39;s share across its own window gives its <code>occupancy(S)</code>; <code>gate(S) = occupancy(S) / duration(S) ∈ [0, 1]</code> is the single number the estimate reads. 1.0 means the stage ran completely alone; 0 means the stage had zero <code>executorRunTime</code> while overlapping other, positive-weight stages, so it got no share of the shared window. When every stage active over an interval has zero weight (no <code>executorRunTime</code>), that interval is split equally among them instead, so a stage that ran alone still gets <code>gate</code> 1. Stages with <code>duration(S) &lt;= 0</code> (Spark-skipped stages, or a malformed <code>submittedAt === completedAt</code>) are excluded from the sweep entirely.</p><p><code>efficiency-model.ts</code> reports <code>floorZeroSkewMs</code> (total task time / peak concurrent cores) as its theoretical floor.</p><p><code>ceiling(S) = max(stage.taskDurationMax, stage.executorRunTime / totalCores)</code> is a physical floor on a stage&#39;s own duration: bounded below by its single longest task (unsplittable no matter how much parallelism exists) or by its core-work spread across every core in the cluster, whichever is larger. Every waste formula&#39;s raw claim is clipped against it before gate-weighting: <code>wasteMs_clipped(S) = min(wasteMs_claimed, max(0, duration(S) - ceiling(S)))</code>, so a finding can never claim to save more than the portion of the stage&#39;s observed duration that sits above its own unbeatable floor.</p><p><code>skew</code> and <code>straggler</code> are the exception (<code>estimateSingleStage</code>&#39;s <code>shortensLongestTask</code> option, passed by <code>detectors.ts</code>&#39;s <code>tailClaimImpact</code>, which both their <code>estimate()</code> and their <code>detect()</code> runtime-floor gate call on the same tail claim, so firing and display agree; <code>stageSlowness</code>&#39;s more-partitions estimate and <code>partitionSizing</code>&#39;s <code>lowShuffleParallelism</code> pass it too, since splitting partitions splits the longest task). Their claim shortens the stage&#39;s longest task itself, so <code>taskDurationMax</code> can&#39;t be their floor: clipping against it would cap a stage gated by one straggler at <code>duration(S) − taskDurationMax</code>, about zero, exactly when the fix recovers the most. Their floor is instead the longest task the fix leaves plus the core work the fix leaves, <code>max(taskDurationMax − wasteMs_claimed, longestTaskAfterFixMs, (stage.executorRunTime − removed) / totalCores)</code>, where <code>removed</code> (<code>tailRemovedWorkMs</code>) is the larger of the finding&#39;s single-task delta (see below) and <code>stragglerExcessMs</code>, and <code>longestTaskAfterFixMs</code> is the longest task the fix leaves for <code>skew</code> and <code>straggler</code> (see below; for <code>lowShuffleParallelism</code> it is <code>taskDurationMax × taskCount / targetTaskCount</code>, the longest task after an even split into the target task count, a modeled figure). Counting the stragglers&#39; own run time as work the stage can&#39;t shed would floor a stage whose tail is most of its core time near its observed duration.</p><p>The claim itself is <code>tailRecoveryMs</code> (<code>occupancy.ts</code>), which returns the stage&#39;s <code>tailReplayRecoveryMs</code>: <code>finalizeStage</code> replays the stage&#39;s own tasks with list scheduling (<code>computeTailReplayRecoveryMs</code> in <code>stage-quantiles.ts</code>: slots = <code>peakConcurrentTasks</code>, at least 1 and at most the task count; tasks in launch order, equal launch times in task-array order, each on the slot that frees first) once with the real durations and once with every task over 4× P50 capped at P50, and takes the difference. It runs only on stages with a task over 4× P50 (every other stage recovers 0) and costs a launch-order index and a slot heap per stage: 5-9 ms over the 236 such stages (23,641 tasks) of the largest real log, whose parse takes 5.5-6.9 s. <code>dev/eval-tail-replay.mjs</code> keeps an independent copy of the replay as its ground truth, and the two agree on every tail stage of the real logs and the corpus.</p><p>A stage without the field (one built by hand, as in detector tests) falls back to a stage-level estimate: the larger of the single-task delta above and <code>stragglerExcessMs / peakConcurrentTasks</code>, the summed excess over P50 of every task slower than 4× P50, spread over the most tasks the stage ever ran at once. That estimate assumes the tail either gates the stage through one task or spreads evenly over the slots; the replay knows when each slow task launched. Stragglers clustered at the end of a stage recover more than the even spread (one real stage: 12 of 200 tasks over 4× P50 on 29 slots, 89.0s estimated, 127.3s replayed), a long task launched early overlaps the rest of the stage and recovers less than its excess (8.4s estimated, 3.0s replayed), and a speculation-driven stage with no task over 4× P50 recovers nothing (5.8s estimated on two real stages).</p><p>The single-task deltas set the removed work above and the fallback estimate. <code>straggler</code>&#39;s runs from <code>taskDurationMax</code> down to the longest task its fix leaves (<code>stragglerFixLongestTaskMs</code>), not down to P50: the fix brings every task over 4× P50 to the median, so the stage still waits on its longest task at or under that (<code>longestNonStragglerMs</code>, from <code>finalizeStage</code>), and that task is also passed as a floor (<code>longestTaskAfterFixMs</code>). A speculation-driven finding with no task over 4× P50 keeps the P50 delta. <code>skew</code> keeps its P50 delta, since repartitioning may even out tasks under 4× P50 too, but takes the same <code>longestTaskAfterFixMs</code> floor: without it a 100 s stage whose next-longest task ran 39 s would have skew claiming 90 s where straggler claims 61 s.</p><p><code>analyzer.ts</code> feeds this <code>totalCores</code> from <code>packages/core/src/core-count.ts</code>&#39;s <code>computePeakConcurrentCores(app, executorsAdded, executorsRemoved)</code> (the same peak concurrent cores <code>efficiency-model.ts</code>&#39;s floor, <code>wasted-core-hours.ts</code> and the <code>utilization</code> finding report as the cluster size), not <code>computeTotalCores</code>, which only <code>scaling-sim.ts</code> uses. <code>computeTotalCores</code> sums every <code>ExecutorAdded</code> event&#39;s cores regardless of overlap, so under dynamic allocation or executor replacement it can far exceed the cores ever actually concurrent, which understates <code>ceiling(S)</code> and lets churn inflate a finding&#39;s claimed wall-clock. <code>computePeakConcurrentCores</code> instead sweeps add/remove events by timestamp and tracks the running total&#39;s peak, so a churned-through executor&#39;s cores are never double-counted against its replacement&#39;s. Same-timestamp events tie-break by delta ascending, so a removal applies before a same-instant replacement&#39;s addition (otherwise a same-instant swap would momentarily double-count both as concurrent). If every <code>executorsAdded</code> entry lacks <code>totalCores</code> the cores sweep peaks at zero and tells us nothing; the function then falls back to sweeping peak <em>executor count</em> instead (still concurrency-aware, just cores-blind) and multiplies by the configured per-executor core count, rather than falling back to <code>executorsAdded.length × cores</code>, which overcounts under churn.</p><p>Per-finding estimate, using <code>wasteMs_clipped(S)</code>:</p><ul><li><code>gate(S) &gt;= 0.999</code>: <code>basis: &#39;serial&#39;</code>, <code>low = high = wasteMs_clipped(S)</code>.</li><li><code>gate(S) &lt; 0.999</code>: <code>basis: &#39;contended&#39;</code>, <code>high = wasteMs_clipped(S)</code>, <code>low = wasteMs_clipped(S) * gate(S)</code>.</li></ul><p>A finding spanning multiple stages (<code>stageIds</code>, plural) sums each stage&#39;s own estimate and caps the joint total at the union of just that finding&#39;s own stage windows (via <code>mergeIntervals</code>, <code>packages/core/src/intervals.ts</code>): <code>high = min(Σ high_i, unionMs(stageIds))</code>, <code>low = min(Σ low_i, unionMs(stageIds))</code>. This is what prevents overclaiming when two or more of a finding&#39;s stages overlap in wall-clock time: a plain sum-and-cap. The union cap can force <code>low === high</code> numerically even when the constituent stages were individually contended (e.g. two fully-overlapping stages each at <code>gate</code> 0.5), so <code>basis</code> isn&#39;t derived from that numeric equality: a multi-stage finding gets <code>basis: &#39;serial&#39;</code> only when every one of its per-stage estimates was itself <code>&#39;serial&#39;</code>; otherwise <code>&#39;contended&#39;</code>.</p><p>Regression guard: a finding whose stage (or, for a multi-stage finding, every one of its stages) ran alone (<code>gate &gt;= 0.95</code>, deliberately looser than the <code>0.999</code> &quot;serial&quot; cutoff above: this guard exists to catch egregious false zeros, not to gate which <code>basis</code> a finding gets) with a real underlying magnitude (<code>rawWaste.value &gt; 0</code>) must never report <code>wallClock.high === 0</code> or <code>basis: &#39;informational&#39;/&#39;resourceOnly&#39;</code>. Covered by <code>packages/core/test/impact-estimator-real-log.test.js</code> (run with <code>npm run test:core</code>; skipped unless the <code>private-log-01.zstd</code> fixture is in <code>examples/</code>); relies on <code>rawWaste</code> being attached to every serial/contended-capable formula (see above), so it&#39;s blind to <code>coldStart</code>, the purely informational (<code>estimateMethod: &#39;none&#39;</code>) finding types, <code>stageShape</code> (resourceOnly by design) and <code>shuffle</code> findings whose stage measured zero fetch wait (a measured zero, not a clip artifact).</p><p>Real-log spot-check (<code>private-log-01.zstd</code>): median <code>gate</code> across stages was <code>≈0.34</code> (0.3428060791718594 exactly); <code>collectRun</code> plus the occupancy sweep together took <code>≈6,589</code>ms on the largest fixture measured (<code>private-log-03.zstd</code>, <code>1169</code> stages): parse-dominated, the sweep alone was not isolated by this measurement, but not a magnitude that suggests a regression either.</p></div></div></main><footer class="VPDocFooter" data-v-39a288b8 data-v-e257564d><!--[--><!--]--><!----><nav class="prev-next" aria-labelledby="doc-footer-aria-label" data-v-e257564d><span class="visually-hidden" id="doc-footer-aria-label" data-v-e257564d>Pager</span><div class="pager" data-v-e257564d><a class="VPLink link pager-link prev" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/detector-contract/threshold-tables.html" data-v-e257564d><!--[--><span class="desc" data-v-e257564d>Previous page</span><span class="title" data-v-e257564d>Threshold tables</span><!--]--></a></div><div class="pager" data-v-e257564d><a class="VPLink link pager-link next" href="/docs/contributor-guide/architecture/impact-estimation/stage-union-rollup.html" data-v-e257564d><!--[--><span class="desc" data-v-e257564d>Next page</span><span class="title" data-v-e257564d>Stage union rollup</span><!--]--></a></div></nav></footer><!--[--><!--]--></div></div></div><!--[--><!--]--></div></div><!----><!--[--><!--]--></div></div>
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