riksdagsmonitor 0.8.12 → 0.8.15

package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/policy-analysis.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/risk-analysis.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+/**
+ * @module data-transformers/risk-analysis
+ * @description Political risk analysis for parliamentary intelligence.
+ * Provides coalition risk scoring, anomalous pattern detection, and
+ * trend comparison capabilities for the Riksdagsmonitor platform.
+ *
+ * @author Hack23 AB
+ * @license Apache-2.0
+ */
+import type { CIAContext } from './types.js';
+/** Risk level categories for coalition stability assessment */
+export type RiskLevel = 'LOW' | 'MEDIUM' | 'HIGH' | 'CRITICAL';
+/** Component scores for coalition risk index */
+export interface CoalitionRiskComponents {
+    /** Voting discipline score (0-100, higher = more disciplined = lower risk) */
+    votingDiscipline: number;
+    /** Party defection risk (0-100, higher = more defections = higher risk) */
+    defectionRisk: number;
+    /** Confidence threshold proximity (0-100, higher = closer to losing majority = higher risk) */
+    majorityMarginRisk: number;
+}
+/** Coalition risk index result */
+export interface CoalitionRiskIndex {
+    /** Composite risk score 0-100 (higher = more risk) */
+    score: number;
+    /** Categorical risk level */
+    level: RiskLevel;
+    /** Individual component scores */
+    components: CoalitionRiskComponents;
+    /** Human-readable summary */
+    summary: string;
+}
+/** Anomaly flag detected in parliamentary data */
+export interface AnomalyFlag {
+    /** Type of anomaly detected */
+    type: 'CROSS_PARTY_VOTE' | 'LOW_COHESION' | 'HIGH_DEFECTION' | 'NARROW_MAJORITY' | 'UNSTABLE_COALITION';
+    /** Severity level */
+    severity: RiskLevel;
+    /** Human-readable description */
+    description: string;
+    /** Party or issue involved (if applicable) */
+    subject?: string;
+}
+/** Trend direction indicator */
+export type TrendDirection = 'IMPROVING' | 'STABLE' | 'DECLINING' | 'VOLATILE';
+/** Trend data point */
+export interface TrendDataPoint {
+    /** Time window label */
+    window: '30d' | '90d' | '365d';
+    /** Score or value at this window */
+    value: number;
+    /** Direction of trend relative to current */
+    direction: TrendDirection;
+    /** Percentage change */
+    changePercent: number;
+}
+/** Trend comparison result */
+export interface TrendComparison {
+    /** Trend data across time windows */
+    trends: TrendDataPoint[];
+    /** Overall trajectory */
+    overallDirection: TrendDirection;
+    /** Key insights from trend analysis */
+    insights: string[];
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate the Coalition Risk Index from CIA intelligence context.
+ *
+ * Combines three components:
+ * - Voting discipline: derived from party cohesion scores
+ * - Defection risk: derived from defection probability
+ * - Majority margin risk: derived from the coalition's majority margin
+ *
+ * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined for safe fallback)
+ * @returns Structured coalition risk index
+ */
+export declare function calculateCoalitionRiskIndex(data: CIAContext | undefined): CoalitionRiskIndex;
+/**
+ * Detect anomalous patterns in parliamentary voting and coalition data.
+ *
+ * Flags:
+ * - Cross-party voting alignments where opposition aligns with coalition
+ * - Low party cohesion scores
+ * - High defection probability
+ * - Narrow majority margins
+ * - General coalition instability
+ *
+ * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined)
+ * @returns Array of anomaly flags (empty if no anomalies detected)
+ */
+export declare function detectAnomalousPatterns(data: CIAContext | undefined): AnomalyFlag[];
+/**
+ * Generate 30/90/365-day trend comparison for coalition stability.
+ *
+ * Uses the stability score and party performance trends to project
+ * historical trajectory. Since actual historical data is aggregated
+ * in the CIA context, this function derives directional trends from
+ * available trend indicators.
+ *
+ * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined)
+ * @returns Trend comparison with direction indicators and insights
+ */
+export declare function generateTrendComparison(data: CIAContext | undefined): TrendComparison;
+//# sourceMappingURL=risk-analysis.d.ts.map

package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/risk-analysis.d.ts.map

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package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/risk-analysis.js

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+/**
+ * @module data-transformers/risk-analysis
+ * @description Political risk analysis for parliamentary intelligence.
+ * Provides coalition risk scoring, anomalous pattern detection, and
+ * trend comparison capabilities for the Riksdagsmonitor platform.
+ *
+ * @author Hack23 AB
+ * @license Apache-2.0
+ */
+/**
+ * Map a numeric stability score to a risk level.
+ * Higher stability = lower risk.
+ */
+function stabilityToRiskLevel(stabilityScore) {
+    if (stabilityScore >= 75)
+        return 'LOW';
+    if (stabilityScore >= 50)
+        return 'MEDIUM';
+    if (stabilityScore >= 25)
+        return 'HIGH';
+    return 'CRITICAL';
+}
+/**
+ * Determine categorical risk level from composite score.
+ */
+function scoreToRiskLevel(score) {
+    if (score < 25)
+        return 'LOW';
+    if (score < 50)
+        return 'MEDIUM';
+    if (score < 75)
+        return 'HIGH';
+    return 'CRITICAL';
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate the Coalition Risk Index from CIA intelligence context.
+ *
+ * Combines three components:
+ * - Voting discipline: derived from party cohesion scores
+ * - Defection risk: derived from defection probability
+ * - Majority margin risk: derived from the coalition's majority margin
+ *
+ * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined for safe fallback)
+ * @returns Structured coalition risk index
+ */
+export function calculateCoalitionRiskIndex(data) {
+    if (!data) {
+        return {
+            score: 50,
+            level: 'MEDIUM',
+            components: {
+                votingDiscipline: 50,
+                defectionRisk: 50,
+                majorityMarginRisk: 50,
+            },
+            summary: 'Insufficient data to assess coalition risk.',
+        };
+    }
+    const { coalitionStability, partyPerformance } = data;
+    // Component 1: Voting discipline (average cohesion score across parties, inverted to risk)
+    const cohesionScores = (partyPerformance ?? [])
+        .map(p => p.metrics.cohesionScore ?? 0)
+        .filter(s => s > 0);
+    const avgCohesion = cohesionScores.length > 0
+        ? cohesionScores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / cohesionScores.length
+        : 50;
+    // Lower cohesion = higher discipline risk (invert)
+    const votingDiscipline = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, 100 - avgCohesion));
+    // Component 2: Defection risk (directly from defection probability, scaled 0-100)
+    const defectionRisk = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, (coalitionStability.defectionProbability ?? 0) * 100));
+    // Component 3: Majority margin risk (lower margin = higher risk)
+    // majorityMargin of 0 = critical (50 point risk), margin of 50+ = low risk
+    const margin = coalitionStability.majorityMargin ?? 0;
+    const majorityMarginRisk = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, margin <= 0 ? 90 : Math.max(5, 50 - margin * 2)));
+    // Composite score: weighted average (defection 40%, discipline 30%, margin 30%)
+    const score = Math.round(defectionRisk * 0.4 +
+        votingDiscipline * 0.3 +
+        majorityMarginRisk * 0.3);
+    const level = scoreToRiskLevel(score);
+    const stabilityLevel = stabilityToRiskLevel(coalitionStability.stabilityScore ?? 50);
+    const summary = level === 'CRITICAL'
+        ? `Coalition faces critical stability risk. Defection probability is elevated and majority margin is dangerously thin.`
+        : level === 'HIGH'
+            ? `Coalition stability is under strain. Voting discipline issues and defection risk require monitoring.`
+            : level === 'MEDIUM'
+                ? `Coalition shows moderate risk indicators. Stability score is ${coalitionStability.stabilityScore ?? 'unknown'} (${stabilityLevel}).`
+                : `Coalition demonstrates low risk. Voting discipline is strong and majority margin is adequate.`;
+    return {
+        score,
+        level,
+        components: {
+            votingDiscipline,
+            defectionRisk,
+            majorityMarginRisk,
+        },
+        summary,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Detect anomalous patterns in parliamentary voting and coalition data.
+ *
+ * Flags:
+ * - Cross-party voting alignments where opposition aligns with coalition
+ * - Low party cohesion scores
+ * - High defection probability
+ * - Narrow majority margins
+ * - General coalition instability
+ *
+ * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined)
+ * @returns Array of anomaly flags (empty if no anomalies detected)
+ */
+export function detectAnomalousPatterns(data) {
+    const flags = [];
+    if (!data)
+        return flags;
+    const { coalitionStability, partyPerformance, votingPatterns } = data;
+    // Check for coalition instability
+    if (coalitionStability.stabilityScore < 40) {
+        flags.push({
+            type: 'UNSTABLE_COALITION',
+            severity: coalitionStability.stabilityScore < 20 ? 'CRITICAL' : 'HIGH',
+            description: `Coalition stability score is critically low at ${coalitionStability.stabilityScore}.`,
+        });
+    }
+    // Check for narrow majority
+    if (coalitionStability.majorityMargin <= 2) {
+        flags.push({
+            type: 'NARROW_MAJORITY',
+            severity: coalitionStability.majorityMargin <= 0 ? 'CRITICAL' : 'HIGH',
+            description: `Coalition majority margin is only ${coalitionStability.majorityMargin} seat(s) — any defection risks government defeat.`,
+        });
+    }
+    // Check for high defection probability
+    if (coalitionStability.defectionProbability > 0.3) {
+        flags.push({
+            type: 'HIGH_DEFECTION',
+            severity: coalitionStability.defectionProbability > 0.6 ? 'CRITICAL' : 'HIGH',
+            description: `Defection probability is elevated at ${(coalitionStability.defectionProbability * 100).toFixed(0)}%.`,
+        });
+    }
+    // Check for low party cohesion
+    partyPerformance.forEach(party => {
+        const cohesion = party.metrics.cohesionScore ?? 100;
+        if (cohesion < 60) {
+            flags.push({
+                type: 'LOW_COHESION',
+                severity: cohesion < 40 ? 'HIGH' : 'MEDIUM',
+                description: `${party.partyName} shows low voting cohesion at ${cohesion.toFixed(0)}% — internal divisions are likely.`,
+                subject: party.partyName,
+            });
+        }
+    });
+    // Check for cross-party voting patterns (opposition aligning with coalition on key issues)
+    if (votingPatterns?.keyIssues) {
+        votingPatterns.keyIssues.forEach(issue => {
+            const crossPartyRate = issue.crossPartyVotes ?? 0;
+            if (crossPartyRate > 30) {
+                flags.push({
+                    type: 'CROSS_PARTY_VOTE',
+                    severity: crossPartyRate > 60 ? 'HIGH' : 'MEDIUM',
+                    description: `Unusually high cross-party voting (${crossPartyRate}%) detected on topic: ${issue.topic}.`,
+                    subject: issue.topic,
+                });
+            }
+        });
+    }
+    return flags;
+}
+/**
+ * Generate 30/90/365-day trend comparison for coalition stability.
+ *
+ * Uses the stability score and party performance trends to project
+ * historical trajectory. Since actual historical data is aggregated
+ * in the CIA context, this function derives directional trends from
+ * available trend indicators.
+ *
+ * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined)
+ * @returns Trend comparison with direction indicators and insights
+ */
+export function generateTrendComparison(data) {
+    if (!data) {
+        return {
+            trends: [
+                { window: '30d', value: 50, direction: 'STABLE', changePercent: 0 },
+                { window: '90d', value: 50, direction: 'STABLE', changePercent: 0 },
+                { window: '365d', value: 50, direction: 'STABLE', changePercent: 0 },
+            ],
+            overallDirection: 'STABLE',
+            insights: ['Insufficient data for trend analysis.'],
+        };
+    }
+    const currentScore = data.coalitionStability.stabilityScore ?? 50;
+    // Derive trend from party-level support trends
+    let improvingCount = 0;
+    let decliningCount = 0;
+    data.partyPerformance.forEach(party => {
+        if (party.trends.supportTrend === 'improving' || party.trends.activityTrend === 'increasing') {
+            improvingCount++;
+        }
+        else if (party.trends.supportTrend === 'declining' || party.trends.activityTrend === 'decreasing') {
+            decliningCount++;
+        }
+    });
+    const netTrendBias = improvingCount - decliningCount;
+    // Estimate past values based on current + trend bias
+    // These are derived estimates, not historical data points
+    const shortTermDelta = netTrendBias > 0 ? -3 : netTrendBias < 0 ? 3 : 0;
+    const medTermDelta = netTrendBias > 0 ? -6 : netTrendBias < 0 ? 6 : 0;
+    const longTermDelta = netTrendBias > 0 ? -10 : netTrendBias < 0 ? 10 : 0;
+    const score30d = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, currentScore + shortTermDelta));
+    const score90d = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, currentScore + medTermDelta));
+    const score365d = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, currentScore + longTermDelta));
+    function directionFromChange(change) {
+        if (Math.abs(change) < 2)
+            return 'STABLE';
+        if (change > 0)
+            return 'IMPROVING';
+        if (change < -5)
+            return 'VOLATILE';
+        return 'DECLINING';
+    }
+    const change30d = currentScore - score30d;
+    const change90d = currentScore - score90d;
+    const change365d = currentScore - score365d;
+    const trends = [
+        {
+            window: '30d',
+            value: score30d,
+            direction: directionFromChange(change30d),
+            changePercent: score30d > 0 ? Math.round((change30d / score30d) * 100) : 0,
+        },
+        {
+            window: '90d',
+            value: score90d,
+            direction: directionFromChange(change90d),
+            changePercent: score90d > 0 ? Math.round((change90d / score90d) * 100) : 0,
+        },
+        {
+            window: '365d',
+            value: score365d,
+            direction: directionFromChange(change365d),
+            changePercent: score365d > 0 ? Math.round((change365d / score365d) * 100) : 0,
+        },
+    ];
+    // Determine overall direction
+    const overallChange = change365d;
+    const overallDirection = directionFromChange(overallChange);
+    // Generate insights
+    const insights = [];
+    if (overallDirection === 'IMPROVING') {
+        insights.push('Coalition stability has been trending upward over the past year.');
+    }
+    else if (overallDirection === 'DECLINING') {
+        insights.push('Coalition stability shows a declining trend over the past year — monitor closely.');
+    }
+    else if (overallDirection === 'VOLATILE') {
+        insights.push('Coalition stability is highly volatile — significant shifts detected in trajectory.');
+    }
+    else {
+        insights.push('Coalition stability has remained broadly stable over the observed period.');
+    }
+    if (data.coalitionStability.majorityMargin <= 5) {
+        insights.push(`Thin majority margin of ${data.coalitionStability.majorityMargin} amplifies trend sensitivity.`);
+    }
+    if (data.partyPerformance.length > 0) {
+        const highActivity = data.partyPerformance
+            .filter(p => p.trends.activityTrend === 'increasing')
+            .map(p => p.partyName);
+        if (highActivity.length > 0) {
+            insights.push(`Increasing legislative activity from: ${highActivity.join(', ')}.`);
+        }
+    }
+    return {
+        trends,
+        overallDirection,
+        insights,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=risk-analysis.js.map

package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/risk-analysis.js.map

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