pulseed 0.4.17 → 0.4.19

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-manager.js

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+import { parseStrategy } from "../../base/types/strategy.js";
+import { PortfolioConfigSchema } from "../../base/types/portfolio.js";
+import { calculateInitialAllocations, countConsecutiveLowestRebalances, redistributeAllocation, adjustAllocations, handleWaitStrategyExpiry as _handleWaitStrategyExpiry, selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals as _selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals, getCurrentGapForDimension as _getCurrentGapForDimension, calculateGapDeltaForStrategy as _calculateGapDeltaForStrategy, } from "./portfolio-rebalance.js";
+import { isWaitStrategy, checkStrategyTermination, } from "./portfolio-allocation.js";
+/**
+ * PortfolioManager provides portfolio-level orchestration on top of StrategyManager.
+ *
+ * Responsibilities:
+ * - Deterministic task-strategy selection (which strategy should generate the next task)
+ * - Effectiveness measurement per strategy (gap delta / sessions consumed)
+ * - Rebalance triggering and execution (allocation adjustment, termination)
+ * - Wait-strategy lifecycle management
+ *
+ * PortfolioManager does NOT replace StrategyManager — it coordinates across strategies.
+ */
+export class PortfolioManager {
+    strategyManager;
+    stateManager;
+    config;
+    /** goalId → timestamp of last rebalance */
+    lastRebalanceTime = new Map();
+    /** goalId → list of past rebalance results */
+    rebalanceHistory = new Map();
+    /** strategyId → timestamp of last task completion */
+    lastTaskCompletionByStrategy = new Map();
+    constructor(strategyManager, stateManager, config) {
+        this.strategyManager = strategyManager;
+        this.stateManager = stateManager;
+        this.config = PortfolioConfigSchema.parse(config ?? {});
+    }
+    // ─── Public Methods ───
+    /**
+     * Select the next strategy that should generate a task for the given goal.
+     *
+     * Uses a deterministic "wait ratio" approach: for each active strategy,
+     * compute (time since last task completion) / allocation. The strategy
+     * with the highest ratio is the most "starved" and gets selected next.
+     *
+     * WaitStrategy instances are skipped (they do not generate tasks).
+     * Returns null if no eligible active strategies exist.
+     */
+    async selectNextStrategyForTask(goalId) {
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        if (!portfolio)
+            return null;
+        const activeStrategies = portfolio.strategies.filter((s) => s.state === "active" || s.state === "evaluating");
+        const eligible = activeStrategies.filter((s) => !this.isWaitStrategy(s));
+        if (eligible.length === 0)
+            return null;
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const portfolioCreatedAt = new Date(portfolio.last_rebalanced_at).getTime();
+        let bestStrategy = null;
+        let bestRatio = -Infinity;
+        for (const strategy of eligible) {
+            const lastCompletion = this.lastTaskCompletionByStrategy.get(strategy.id) ??
+                (strategy.started_at
+                    ? new Date(strategy.started_at).getTime()
+                    : portfolioCreatedAt);
+            const elapsed = now - lastCompletion;
+            const allocation = strategy.allocation > 0 ? strategy.allocation : 0.01;
+            const ratio = elapsed / allocation;
+            if (ratio > bestRatio) {
+                bestRatio = ratio;
+                bestStrategy = strategy;
+            }
+        }
+        if (!bestStrategy)
+            return null;
+        return {
+            strategy_id: bestStrategy.id,
+            reason: `Highest wait ratio (${bestRatio.toFixed(0)}ms/alloc) — most starved for task execution`,
+            wait_ratio: bestRatio,
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Calculate effectiveness records for all active strategies of a goal.
+     *
+     * effectiveness_score = gap_delta_attributed / sessions_consumed
+     *
+     * Uses dimension-target matching (method 2): sum gap changes in each
+     * strategy's target_dimensions and attribute them to that strategy.
+     *
+     * Requires a minimum number of task completions (default 3) before
+     * producing a non-null score.
+     */
+    async calculateEffectiveness(goalId) {
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        if (!portfolio)
+            return [];
+        const activeStrategies = portfolio.strategies.filter((s) => s.state === "active" || s.state === "evaluating");
+        const now = new Date().toISOString();
+        const records = [];
+        for (const strategy of activeStrategies) {
+            const sessionsConsumed = strategy.tasks_generated.length;
+            const gapDelta = await this.calculateGapDeltaForStrategy(strategy, goalId);
+            let score = null;
+            if (sessionsConsumed >= this.config.effectiveness_min_tasks) {
+                score =
+                    sessionsConsumed > 0 ? gapDelta / sessionsConsumed : 0;
+            }
+            records.push({
+                strategy_id: strategy.id,
+                gap_delta_attributed: gapDelta,
+                sessions_consumed: sessionsConsumed,
+                effectiveness_score: score,
+                last_calculated_at: now,
+            });
+        }
+        return records;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Check whether a rebalance is needed for the given goal.
+     *
+     * Two trigger types:
+     * - periodic: rebalance_interval has elapsed since last rebalance
+     * - score_change: any effectiveness_score changed 50%+ since last rebalance
+     *
+     * Returns the trigger or null.
+     */
+    async shouldRebalance(goalId) {
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const lastRebalance = this.lastRebalanceTime.get(goalId) ?? 0;
+        const intervalMs = this.config.rebalance_interval_hours * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+        if (lastRebalance > 0 && now - lastRebalance >= intervalMs) {
+            return {
+                type: "periodic",
+                strategy_id: null,
+                details: `Rebalance interval (${this.config.rebalance_interval_hours}h) has elapsed`,
+            };
+        }
+        const currentRecords = await this.calculateEffectiveness(goalId);
+        const history = this.rebalanceHistory.get(goalId) ?? [];
+        if (history.length === 0)
+            return null;
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        if (!portfolio)
+            return null;
+        const strategyById = new Map(portfolio.strategies.map((strategy) => [
+            strategy.id,
+            strategy,
+        ]));
+        for (const record of currentRecords) {
+            if (record.effectiveness_score === null)
+                continue;
+            const strategy = strategyById.get(record.strategy_id);
+            if (!strategy || strategy.effectiveness_score === null)
+                continue;
+            const previousScore = strategy.effectiveness_score;
+            if (previousScore === 0)
+                continue;
+            const changeRatio = Math.abs((record.effectiveness_score - previousScore) / previousScore);
+            if (changeRatio >= 0.5) {
+                return {
+                    type: "score_change",
+                    strategy_id: record.strategy_id,
+                    details: `Effectiveness score changed by ${(changeRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% (${previousScore.toFixed(3)} → ${record.effectiveness_score.toFixed(3)})`,
+                };
+            }
+        }
+        return null;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Execute a rebalance for the given goal based on the trigger.
+     *
+     * Logic (design doc sec 6.3):
+     * - All scores null: no change
+     * - Score ratio < 2.0: no change
+     * - Score ratio >= 2.0: increase high-performer allocation, decrease low-performer
+     *   (respect min 0.1)
+     * - Check termination conditions and terminate if met
+     * - If all terminated: set new_generation_needed = true
+     * - Redistribute terminated strategy allocation proportionally
+     */
+    async rebalance(goalId, trigger) {
+        const now = new Date().toISOString();
+        const records = await this.calculateEffectiveness(goalId);
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        const result = {
+            triggered_by: trigger.type,
+            timestamp: now,
+            adjustments: [],
+            terminated_strategies: [],
+            new_generation_needed: false,
+        };
+        if (!portfolio) {
+            await this.recordRebalance(goalId, result);
+            return result;
+        }
+        const activeStrategies = portfolio.strategies.filter((s) => s.state === "active" || s.state === "evaluating");
+        for (const strategy of activeStrategies) {
+            if (this.checkTermination(strategy, records)) {
+                await this.strategyManager.updateState(strategy.id, "terminated");
+                result.terminated_strategies.push(strategy.id);
+            }
+        }
+        const remainingStrategies = activeStrategies.filter((s) => !result.terminated_strategies.includes(s.id));
+        if (remainingStrategies.length === 0 &&
+            result.terminated_strategies.length > 0) {
+            result.new_generation_needed = true;
+            await this.recordRebalance(goalId, result);
+            return result;
+        }
+        if (result.terminated_strategies.length > 0 && remainingStrategies.length > 0) {
+            const freedAllocation = result.terminated_strategies.reduce((sum, sid) => {
+                const s = activeStrategies.find((st) => st.id === sid);
+                return sum + (s?.allocation ?? 0);
+            }, 0);
+            redistributeAllocation(goalId, remainingStrategies, records, freedAllocation, this.config, result, (gId, sId, alloc) => this.updateStrategyAllocation(gId, sId, alloc));
+        }
+        const scoredRecords = records.filter((r) => r.effectiveness_score !== null &&
+            remainingStrategies.some((s) => s.id === r.strategy_id));
+        if (scoredRecords.length >= 2) {
+            const scores = scoredRecords.map((r) => r.effectiveness_score);
+            const maxScore = Math.max(...scores);
+            const minScore = Math.min(...scores);
+            if (minScore > 0 && maxScore / minScore >= this.config.score_ratio_threshold) {
+                adjustAllocations(goalId, remainingStrategies, scoredRecords, this.config, result, (gId, sId, alloc) => this.updateStrategyAllocation(gId, sId, alloc));
+            }
+        }
+        this.recordRebalance(goalId, result);
+        return result;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Check whether a strategy should be terminated.
+     *
+     * Three conditions (design doc sec 6.4):
+     * 1. Lowest effectiveness score for 3 consecutive rebalances at min allocation
+     * 2. consecutive_stall_count >= 3
+     * 3. Resource consumption > 2x estimate
+     */
+    checkTermination(strategy, records) {
+        return checkStrategyTermination(strategy, records, this.config, this.rebalanceHistory, countConsecutiveLowestRebalances);
+    }
+    /**
+     * Activate multiple strategies with initial allocation.
+     *
+     * Single strategy: allocation = 1.0
+     * Multiple: equal split as default, respecting min 0.1 and max 0.7, sum = 1.0
+     */
+    activateStrategies(goalId, strategyIds) {
+        if (strategyIds.length === 0)
+            return;
+        const allocations = calculateInitialAllocations(strategyIds.length, this.config);
+        for (let i = 0; i < strategyIds.length; i++) {
+            const strategyId = strategyIds[i];
+            this.strategyManager.updateState(strategyId, "active");
+            this.updateStrategyAllocation(goalId, strategyId, allocations[i]);
+        }
+    }
+    /**
+     * Check if a strategy is a WaitStrategy (has wait-specific fields).
+     */
+    isWaitStrategy(strategy) {
+        return isWaitStrategy(strategy);
+    }
+    /**
+     * Handle expiry of a WaitStrategy.
+     *
+     * When wait_until has passed:
+     * - Gap improved: complete the WaitStrategy
+     * - Gap unchanged: activate fallback strategy if one exists, otherwise trigger rebalance
+     * - Gap worsened: terminate the WaitStrategy and trigger rebalance
+     */
+    async handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId) {
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        if (!portfolio)
+            return null;
+        const strategy = portfolio.strategies.find((s) => s.id === strategyId);
+        if (!strategy)
+            return null;
+        return _handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId, strategyId, strategy, (s) => this.isWaitStrategy(s), (gId, dim) => this.getCurrentGapForDimension(gId, dim), (sId, state) => this.strategyManager.updateState(sId, state), async (gId) => (await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(gId))?.strategies ?? []);
+    }
+    /**
+     * Record a task completion timestamp for a strategy.
+     * Called externally when a task finishes execution.
+     */
+    recordTaskCompletion(strategyId) {
+        this.lastTaskCompletionByStrategy.set(strategyId, Date.now());
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get the rebalance history for a goal.
+     */
+    getRebalanceHistory(goalId) {
+        return this.rebalanceHistory.get(goalId) ?? [];
+    }
+    /**
+     * Select the next strategy to execute across multiple goals.
+     *
+     * Uses CrossGoalPortfolio's allocation to determine which goal gets the
+     * next turn (most underserved relative to its allocation), then selects
+     * a strategy within that goal using selectNextStrategyForTask().
+     *
+     * Returns null if no strategies are available across all goals.
+     */
+    async selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals(goalIds, goalAllocations) {
+        return _selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals(goalIds, goalAllocations, this.goalTaskCounts, (goalId) => this.selectNextStrategyForTask(goalId));
+    }
+    /**
+     * Track how many tasks have been dispatched per goal.
+     * Updated via recordGoalTaskDispatched().
+     */
+    goalTaskCounts = new Map();
+    /**
+     * Record that a task was dispatched for the given goal.
+     * Used by selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals() to track saturation.
+     */
+    recordGoalTaskDispatched(goalId) {
+        this.goalTaskCounts.set(goalId, (this.goalTaskCounts.get(goalId) ?? 0) + 1);
+    }
+    // ─── Private Helpers ───
+    async calculateGapDeltaForStrategy(strategy, goalId) {
+        return _calculateGapDeltaForStrategy(strategy, goalId, async (path) => await this.stateManager.readRaw(path));
+    }
+    async getCurrentGapForDimension(goalId, dimension) {
+        return _getCurrentGapForDimension(goalId, dimension, async (path) => await this.stateManager.readRaw(path));
+    }
+    /**
+     * Update a single strategy's allocation in the portfolio.
+     * Reads portfolio, modifies the strategy, and writes back.
+     */
+    async updateStrategyAllocation(goalId, strategyId, allocation) {
+        const portfolio = await this.strategyManager.getPortfolio(goalId);
+        if (!portfolio)
+            return;
+        const updated = {
+            ...portfolio,
+            strategies: portfolio.strategies.map((s) => s.id === strategyId
+                ? parseStrategy({ ...s, allocation })
+                : s),
+        };
+        await this.strategyManager.savePortfolio(goalId, updated);
+    }
+    /**
+     * Record a rebalance result and update tracking state.
+     */
+    async recordRebalance(goalId, result) {
+        this.lastRebalanceTime.set(goalId, Date.now());
+        const history = this.rebalanceHistory.get(goalId) ?? [];
+        history.push(result);
+        this.rebalanceHistory.set(goalId, history);
+        await this.stateManager.writeRaw(`strategies/${goalId}/rebalance-history.json`, history);
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-manager.js.map

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-manager.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-momentum.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+import type { MomentumInfo } from "../../base/types/cross-portfolio.js";
+/**
+ * Calculate momentum for a single goal based on recent state snapshots.
+ *
+ * @param goalId — goal to evaluate
+ * @param snapshots — array of recent progress values (0-1), ordered oldest → newest
+ *                    (typically last 5 iterations). Minimum 2 values required.
+ * @returns MomentumInfo
+ */
+export declare function calculateMomentum(goalId: string, snapshots: number[]): MomentumInfo;
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-momentum.d.ts.map

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-momentum.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"portfolio-momentum.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../../src/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-momentum.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,EAAiB,MAAM,qCAAqC,CAAC;AAIvF;;;;;;;GAOG;AACH,wBAAgB,iBAAiB,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,YAAY,CAyDnF"}

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-momentum.js

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+// ─── Momentum ───
+/**
+ * Calculate momentum for a single goal based on recent state snapshots.
+ *
+ * @param goalId — goal to evaluate
+ * @param snapshots — array of recent progress values (0-1), ordered oldest → newest
+ *                    (typically last 5 iterations). Minimum 2 values required.
+ * @returns MomentumInfo
+ */
+export function calculateMomentum(goalId, snapshots) {
+    if (snapshots.length === 0) {
+        return { goalId, recentProgress: 0, velocity: 0, trend: "stalled" };
+    }
+    if (snapshots.length === 1) {
+        return { goalId, recentProgress: 0, velocity: 0, trend: "stalled" };
+    }
+    // recentProgress = total delta from first to last snapshot
+    const recentProgress = snapshots[snapshots.length - 1] - snapshots[0];
+    // velocity = smoothed average per-step delta (EMA-style: weight recent steps more)
+    const deltas = [];
+    for (let i = 1; i < snapshots.length; i++) {
+        deltas.push(snapshots[i] - snapshots[i - 1]);
+    }
+    // Simple smoothed velocity: weighted average where later deltas have higher weight
+    let weightedSum = 0;
+    let weightTotal = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < deltas.length; i++) {
+        const w = i + 1; // weight increases for more recent deltas
+        weightedSum += deltas[i] * w;
+        weightTotal += w;
+    }
+    const velocity = weightTotal > 0 ? weightedSum / weightTotal : 0;
+    // Trend detection:
+    //   stalled:       velocity ≈ 0 (< 0.005)
+    //   accelerating:  later half average > earlier half average
+    //   decelerating:  later half average < earlier half average (by ≥ threshold)
+    //   steady:        otherwise
+    let trend;
+    const STALL_THRESHOLD = 0.005;
+    if (Math.abs(velocity) < STALL_THRESHOLD) {
+        trend = "stalled";
+    }
+    else if (deltas.length >= 2) {
+        const mid = Math.floor(deltas.length / 2);
+        const earlyAvg = deltas.slice(0, mid).reduce((s, d) => s + d, 0) / mid;
+        const lateAvg = deltas.slice(mid).reduce((s, d) => s + d, 0) / (deltas.length - mid);
+        const ACCEL_THRESHOLD = 0.002;
+        if (lateAvg > earlyAvg + ACCEL_THRESHOLD) {
+            trend = "accelerating";
+        }
+        else if (lateAvg < earlyAvg - ACCEL_THRESHOLD) {
+            trend = "decelerating";
+        }
+        else {
+            trend = "steady";
+        }
+    }
+    else {
+        // Only 1 delta — classify by sign
+        trend = velocity > 0 ? "steady" : "stalled";
+    }
+    return { goalId, recentProgress, velocity, trend };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-momentum.js.map

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-momentum.js.map

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package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-rebalance.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+/**
+ * portfolio-rebalance.ts
+ *
+ * Pure/stateless helpers for PortfolioManager rebalancing logic.
+ * Functions here take configuration and data as explicit parameters
+ * and return results without side effects (except via the provided
+ * callbacks).
+ */
+import type { PortfolioConfig, EffectivenessRecord, RebalanceResult, RebalanceTrigger, TaskSelectionResult } from "../../base/types/portfolio.js";
+import type { Strategy } from "../../base/types/strategy.js";
+/**
+ * Get the current gap value for a specific dimension of a goal.
+ * Reads from gap data provided by the caller (StateManager.readRaw).
+ */
+export declare function getCurrentGapForDimension(goalId: string, dimension: string, readRaw: (path: string) => unknown | Promise<unknown>): Promise<number | null>;
+/**
+ * Calculate gap delta attributed to a strategy using dimension-target matching.
+ * Sums gap improvements across the strategy's target_dimensions.
+ */
+export declare function calculateGapDeltaForStrategy(strategy: Strategy, goalId: string, readRaw: (path: string) => unknown | Promise<unknown>): Promise<number>;
+/**
+ * Calculate initial equal-split allocations for N strategies.
+ * Single strategy: [1.0].
+ * Multiple: equal split clamped to [min_allocation, max_allocation], sum = 1.0.
+ */
+export declare function calculateInitialAllocations(count: number, config: Pick<PortfolioConfig, "min_allocation" | "max_allocation">): number[];
+/**
+ * Count how many consecutive recent rebalances a strategy has been the lowest scorer
+ * (i.e., was adjusted down to min_allocation).
+ */
+export declare function countConsecutiveLowestRebalances(strategyId: string, history: RebalanceResult[], minAllocation: number): number;
+/**
+ * Redistribute freed allocation proportionally among remaining strategies
+ * based on effectiveness scores.
+ *
+ * Calls updateAllocation(goalId, strategyId, newAllocation) for each change.
+ */
+export declare function redistributeAllocation(goalId: string, remaining: Strategy[], records: EffectivenessRecord[], freedAllocation: number, config: Pick<PortfolioConfig, "max_allocation">, result: RebalanceResult, updateAllocation: (goalId: string, strategyId: string, allocation: number) => void): void;
+/**
+ * Adjust allocations based on effectiveness scores.
+ * Increases high-performers, decreases low-performers.
+ *
+ * Calls updateAllocation(goalId, strategyId, newAllocation) for each change.
+ */
+export declare function adjustAllocations(goalId: string, strategies: Strategy[], scoredRecords: EffectivenessRecord[], config: Pick<PortfolioConfig, "min_allocation" | "max_allocation">, result: RebalanceResult, updateAllocation: (goalId: string, strategyId: string, allocation: number) => void): void;
+/**
+ * Handle expiry of a WaitStrategy.
+ *
+ * When wait_until has passed:
+ * - Gap improved: complete the WaitStrategy
+ * - Gap unchanged: activate fallback strategy if one exists, otherwise trigger rebalance
+ * - Gap worsened: terminate the WaitStrategy and trigger rebalance
+ *
+ * @param isWaitStrategy - predicate to detect WaitStrategy instances
+ * @param getGap - get current gap for a dimension of a goal
+ * @param updateState - transition a strategy to a new state
+ * @param getPortfolioStrategies - get all strategies for a goal
+ */
+export declare function handleWaitStrategyExpiry(goalId: string, strategyId: string, strategy: Strategy, isWaitStrategy: (s: Strategy) => boolean, getGap: (goalId: string, dimension: string) => number | null | Promise<number | null>, updateState: (strategyId: string, state: string) => void | Promise<void>, getPortfolioStrategies: (goalId: string) => Strategy[] | Promise<Strategy[]>): Promise<RebalanceTrigger | null>;
+/**
+ * Select the next strategy across multiple goals.
+ *
+ * Sorts goals by "saturation ratio" (tasks dispatched / allocation) — the most
+ * underserved goal (lowest saturation) gets the next task. Within that goal,
+ * selectStrategyForTask() picks the best strategy.
+ *
+ * @param goalTaskCounts - map of goalId → total tasks dispatched
+ * @param selectStrategyForTask - select best strategy within one goal
+ */
+export declare function selectNextStrategyAcrossGoals(goalIds: string[], goalAllocations: Map<string, number>, goalTaskCounts: Map<string, number>, selectStrategyForTask: (goalId: string) => TaskSelectionResult | null | Promise<TaskSelectionResult | null>): Promise<{
+    goal_id: string;
+    strategy_id: string | null;
+    selection_reason: string;
+} | null>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=portfolio-rebalance.d.ts.map

package/dist/orchestrator/strategy/portfolio-rebalance.d.ts.map

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