modelrig 0.8.0 → 0.9.0

package/dist/query/saved.js

@@ -11,9 +11,10 @@
  * editorializes (F5: measured-only).
  */
 Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
-exports.SAVED_QUERIES = void 0;
+exports.LAUNCH_COHORT_QUERIES = exports.SAVED_QUERIES = void 0;
 exports.savedQueryById = savedQueryById;
 exports.sinceIsoFor = sinceIsoFor;
+exports.cohortQueryById = cohortQueryById;
 exports.SAVED_QUERIES = [
     {
         id: "cost-per-subject",
@@ -49,3 +50,68 @@ function savedQueryById(id) {
 function sinceIsoFor(windowDays, now) {
     return new Date(now.getTime() - windowDays * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000).toISOString();
 }
+exports.LAUNCH_COHORT_QUERIES = [
+    {
+        id: "cohort-orgs-active",
+        title: "Orgs created & active (≥1 run this week)",
+        description: "Orgs with at least one inference in the window — the active-org count the T+75 decision reads (spec §3.1).",
+        windowDays: 7,
+        sql: (since) => `SELECT count(DISTINCT org_id) AS active_orgs FROM inferences WHERE ts >= '${since}'`,
+    },
+    {
+        id: "cohort-byok-spend",
+        title: "BYOK list-price spend per org (p50 / p90 / total)",
+        description: "Per-org BYOK spend at list price over the window, then p50/p90/total across orgs — the launch value we are NOT charging during launch (spec §3.2).",
+        windowDays: 30,
+        sql: (since) => `WITH per_org AS (` +
+            `SELECT org_id, sum(cost_estimate_usd) AS byok_spend FROM inferences ` +
+            `WHERE ts >= '${since}' AND lane = 'byok' GROUP BY org_id) ` +
+            `SELECT percentile_cont(0.5) WITHIN GROUP (ORDER BY byok_spend) AS p50, ` +
+            `percentile_cont(0.9) WITHIN GROUP (ORDER BY byok_spend) AS p90, ` +
+            `sum(byok_spend) AS total FROM per_org`,
+    },
+    {
+        id: "cohort-card-adoption",
+        title: "Card-on-file adoption %",
+        description: "Share of billing orgs with a Stripe customer + verified card on file (the WS4 card path) — the cap-lifting signal (spec §3.3).",
+        windowDays: 30,
+        sql: () => `SELECT count(*) FILTER (WHERE stripe_customer IS NOT NULL) AS with_card, ` +
+            `count(*) AS billing_orgs FROM balances`,
+    },
+    {
+        id: "cohort-managed-adoption",
+        title: "Managed-key adoption % and managed spend",
+        description: "Orgs with any managed-lane usage and their managed list-price spend over the window (spec §3.4).",
+        windowDays: 30,
+        sql: (since) => `SELECT count(DISTINCT org_id) AS managed_orgs, sum(cost_estimate_usd) AS managed_spend ` +
+            `FROM inferences WHERE ts >= '${since}' AND lane = 'managed'`,
+    },
+    {
+        id: "cohort-bakeoffs-per-org",
+        title: "Bake-offs run per org",
+        description: "Bake-off artifacts published per org over the window — engagement with the proof surface (spec §3.6).",
+        windowDays: 30,
+        sql: (since) => `SELECT org_id, count(*) AS bakeoffs FROM artifacts ` +
+            `WHERE kind = 'bakeoff' AND created_at >= '${since}' GROUP BY org_id ORDER BY bakeoffs DESC`,
+    },
+    {
+        id: "cohort-receipts-per-org",
+        title: "Published receipts per org",
+        description: "Receipts published per org over the window (from the artifacts index) — a card-lifted, unlimited cap for card-on-file orgs (spec §3.7).",
+        windowDays: 30,
+        sql: (since) => `SELECT org_id, count(*) AS receipts FROM artifacts ` +
+            `WHERE kind = 'receipt' AND created_at >= '${since}' GROUP BY org_id ORDER BY receipts DESC`,
+    },
+    {
+        id: "cohort-cap-hits",
+        title: "Cap-hit counts by cap",
+        description: "How often each soft fair-use cap was exceeded over the window — the counted notices from the launch-terms cap counters (spec §3.9). Reads the counted cap-notice rows recorded in control_state.",
+        windowDays: 30,
+        sql: (since) => `SELECT key, value FROM control_state ` +
+            `WHERE key LIKE 'launch-terms:cap-hit:%' AND updated_at >= '${since}' ORDER BY key`,
+    },
+];
+/** Look up a launch cohort question by id, or null. */
+function cohortQueryById(id) {
+    return exports.LAUNCH_COHORT_QUERIES.find((q) => q.id === id) ?? null;
+}

package/dist/receipts/types.d.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-export type ReceiptKind = "bakeoff" | "regret" | "masking-proof" | "run" | "egress" | "disclosure" | "statement" | "fact-sheet" | "launch-report";
+export type ReceiptKind = "bakeoff" | "regret" | "masking-proof" | "run" | "egress" | "disclosure" | "statement" | "fact-sheet" | "launch-report" | "detector-probe";
 /** The kinds RP-1 ships producers for. Others land with their own missions. */
 export declare const RECEIPT_KINDS: readonly ReceiptKind[];
 export type MeasuredValue = number | string | boolean | null;

package/dist/receipts/types.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/receipts/types.js

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ const diff_1 = require("../verify/diff");
 exports.RECEIPT_KINDS = [
     "bakeoff", "regret", "masking-proof", "run", "egress",
     "disclosure", "statement", "fact-sheet", "launch-report",
+    "detector-probe",
 ];
 /**
  * Keys that would carry a tenant identifier and so must NEVER appear in

package/dist/registry/build.d.ts

@@ -31,6 +31,14 @@ export interface DeclaredLayer {
         /** What OUR adapter actually drives for this model (static map v0). */
         readonly adapter_structured_native: boolean | null;
         readonly adapter_grounded_native: boolean | null;
+        /**
+         * DECLARED image-input claim (UC-3 M0) — the vendor's `supports_vision`
+         * flag from the pinned LiteLLM map. It SEEDS the image-probe candidate list
+         * and drives the declared-vs-probed discrepancy, but it can NEVER mark the
+         * probed `image_input` dimension true: probed-beats-declared, and a claim is
+         * not a measurement (dev-rule S9c / spec §3). `null` when the map is silent
+         * — silence is "unknown", never "no". */
+        readonly supports_image_input: boolean | null;
     };
 }
 /** Per-corpus (fixture-family) breakdown of a schema summary — demo-rig
@@ -85,6 +93,27 @@ export interface ProbedGroundingSummary {
     readonly grounded_rate: number;
     readonly mean_citations: number;
 }
+/**
+ * Image-input probe summary (UC-3 M0) — the PROBED half of the `image_input`
+ * dimension. Every field is a MEASUREMENT over the image-fixture leg (a form
+ * image sent with a JSON-schema ask); nothing here is ever seeded from a
+ * declared claim. Absence of this block (probed.image === null) means UNPROBED,
+ * which is never rendered as "cannot" (spec §3, S9c honesty).
+ */
+export interface ProbedImageSummary {
+    readonly samples: number;
+    /** The probe's PASS rate: fraction of samples that returned schema-conformant
+     * JSON AND recovered every planted field (full value accuracy). A wrong-fields
+     * response — conformant shape, wrong values — is NOT an extraction, so it
+     * lowers this rate (the negative control the leg is tested against). `null`
+     * when no samples were taken. */
+    readonly extract_rate: number | null;
+    readonly extract_ci95: readonly [number, number] | null;
+    /** Mean fraction of planted fields recovered over parsed samples — the
+     * graded-partial signal behind `extract_rate`. `null` when nothing parsed. */
+    readonly value_accuracy_mean: number | null;
+    readonly mean_cost_usd: number;
+}
 export interface ProbedCachingSummary {
     readonly samples: number;
     readonly cache_hit_rate: number;
@@ -102,6 +131,10 @@ export interface ProbedLayer {
     readonly schema: ProbedSchemaSummary | null;
     readonly grounding: ProbedGroundingSummary | null;
     readonly caching: ProbedCachingSummary | null;
+    /** Image-input leg (UC-3 M0) — null when the model has not been probed on the
+     * image class. Optional/additive: pre-image probed layers omit the key, so a
+     * reader guards on `?? null` (an absent leg is UNPROBED, never "no images"). */
+    readonly image?: ProbedImageSummary | null;
 }
 export interface ObservedLayer {
     readonly as_of: string;
@@ -155,7 +188,7 @@ export interface Registry {
  * structural so the core package does not depend on modelrig-probes). */
 export interface ProbeResultFile {
     readonly modelKey: string;
-    readonly class: "schema" | "grounding" | "caching";
+    readonly class: "schema" | "grounding" | "caching" | "image";
     readonly date: string;
     readonly harnessVersion: string;
     /** fixtureId → family (demo-rig §11.3b). Absent on pre-family result files;
@@ -186,6 +219,15 @@ export declare function latestPerClass(results: readonly ProbeResultFile[]): Par
 export declare function summarizeSchemaResult(result: ProbeResultFile): ProbedSchemaSummary;
 export declare function summarizeGroundingResult(result: ProbeResultFile): ProbedGroundingSummary;
 export declare function summarizeCachingResult(result: ProbeResultFile): ProbedCachingSummary;
+/**
+ * Summarize an image-leg result (UC-3 M0). A sample is an EXTRACTION PASS iff it
+ * returned schema-conformant JSON (ajv) AND recovered every planted field
+ * (valueAccuracy 1.0) — a shape-right / values-wrong answer is the negative
+ * control and does NOT count. `extract_rate` is that pass rate over ALL samples
+ * (a failed call is a non-extraction), so a run of zero samples is `null`, never
+ * a confident 0%.
+ */
+export declare function summarizeImageResult(result: ProbeResultFile): ProbedImageSummary;
 /** Compose a model's SCHEMA result files into one synthetic file, so a cheap
  * SUPPLEMENTAL run (new fixtures only) ADDS to a prior full run instead of
  * replacing it — the default latest-per-file rule would drop every fixture the

package/dist/registry/build.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/registry/build.js

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ exports.latestPerClass = latestPerClass;
 exports.summarizeSchemaResult = summarizeSchemaResult;
 exports.summarizeGroundingResult = summarizeGroundingResult;
 exports.summarizeCachingResult = summarizeCachingResult;
+exports.summarizeImageResult = summarizeImageResult;
 exports.mergeSchemaResults = mergeSchemaResults;
 exports.buildProbedLayer = buildProbedLayer;
 exports.detectDiscrepancies = detectDiscrepancies;
@@ -22,6 +23,10 @@ const call_notes_1 = require("./call-notes");
 const claims_1 = require("./claims");
 const CONFORMANCE_BAR = 0.9;
 const GROUNDED_BAR = 0.5;
+/** Schema-conformant-extraction bar for the image leg (UC-3 M0) — the same
+ * 0.9 the schema conformance detector uses; an image "capability" is a probed
+ * extract rate at or above it, never a declared claim. */
+const IMAGE_BAR = 0.9;
 function mean(values) {
     if (values.length === 0)
         return null;
@@ -148,6 +153,27 @@ function summarizeCachingResult(result) {
         eligible_samples: n,
     };
 }
+/**
+ * Summarize an image-leg result (UC-3 M0). A sample is an EXTRACTION PASS iff it
+ * returned schema-conformant JSON (ajv) AND recovered every planted field
+ * (valueAccuracy 1.0) — a shape-right / values-wrong answer is the negative
+ * control and does NOT count. `extract_rate` is that pass rate over ALL samples
+ * (a failed call is a non-extraction), so a run of zero samples is `null`, never
+ * a confident 0%.
+ */
+function summarizeImageResult(result) {
+    const samples = Object.values(result.raw).flat();
+    const n = samples.length;
+    const extracted = samples.filter((s) => s.schemaConform === true && s.valueAccuracy !== null && s.valueAccuracy >= 1).length;
+    const accuracies = samples.map((s) => s.valueAccuracy).filter((a) => a !== null);
+    return {
+        samples: n,
+        extract_rate: n === 0 ? null : extracted / n,
+        extract_ci95: n === 0 ? null : wilson95(extracted, n),
+        value_accuracy_mean: mean(accuracies),
+        mean_cost_usd: n === 0 ? 0 : samples.reduce((a, s) => a + s.costUsd, 0) / n,
+    };
+}
 /** Compose a model's SCHEMA result files into one synthetic file, so a cheap
  * SUPPLEMENTAL run (new fixtures only) ADDS to a prior full run instead of
  * replacing it — the default latest-per-file rule would drop every fixture the
@@ -214,6 +240,10 @@ function buildProbedLayer(results, currentSchemaFixtureIds) {
         schema: schemaFile !== undefined ? summarizeSchemaResult(schemaFile) : null,
         grounding: byClass.grounding !== undefined ? summarizeGroundingResult(byClass.grounding) : null,
         caching: byClass.caching !== undefined ? summarizeCachingResult(byClass.caching) : null,
+        // Image leg is latest-per-file like grounding/caching (one image result per
+        // cycle); the key is only emitted when the model was probed on it, so an
+        // unprobed model has no `image` block rather than a null-that-reads-as-no.
+        ...(byClass.image !== undefined ? { image: summarizeImageResult(byClass.image) } : {}),
     };
 }
 /** Declared-vs-probed disagreement detection — plan §4 (the rule pair) plus
@@ -284,6 +314,28 @@ function detectDiscrepancies(declared, probed) {
             });
         }
     }
+    // Image leg (UC-3 M0). Fires only when the model was actually probed on the
+    // image class — an UNPROBED model produces no image discrepancy (unprobed ≠
+    // "cannot"; the whole detectDiscrepancies also early-returns when probed is
+    // null). A declared `supports_vision` claim can disagree with the measurement
+    // either way, and we surface the disagreement rather than pick a side.
+    const image = probed.image ?? null;
+    if (image !== null && image.extract_rate !== null && image.samples > 0) {
+        if (declared.flags.supports_image_input === true && image.extract_rate < IMAGE_BAR) {
+            out.push({
+                kind: "declared_image_low_extraction",
+                message: `declared image input (supports_vision), but probed schema-conformant extraction is ` +
+                    `${(image.extract_rate * 100).toFixed(0)}% (bar: ${IMAGE_BAR * 100}%)`,
+            });
+        }
+        if (declared.flags.supports_image_input !== true && image.extract_rate >= IMAGE_BAR) {
+            out.push({
+                kind: "undeclared_image_capable",
+                message: `no declared image input support, but probed schema-conformant extraction is ` +
+                    `${(image.extract_rate * 100).toFixed(0)}% — capability exists undeclared`,
+            });
+        }
+    }
     return out;
 }
 function buildRegistry(entries, generatedAt) {

package/dist/registry/pricing-shape.d.ts

@@ -40,10 +40,39 @@ export interface ContextBand {
     readonly above_tokens: number;
     readonly rates: TokenRates;
 }
+/**
+ * Typed per-provider image-input price (UC-3 M0). The BILLING MODEL varies by
+ * provider — some charge a flat fee per image, others tile the image into input
+ * tokens billed per-token — so it is a discriminated union, never averaged into
+ * one scalar. `source` + `as_of` are REQUIRED provenance (a sourced value is
+ * "declared" until an observed layer supersedes it). GOVERNING RULE (dev-rule
+ * L5 / spec §3): if a provider's image price cannot be sourced, this field is
+ * ABSENT — never guessed, never synthesized from the text rate.
+ */
+export type ImageInputPrice = {
+    /** A flat fee per image, USD (LiteLLM `input_cost_per_image`). */
+    readonly unit: "per_image";
+    readonly usd_per_image: number;
+    readonly source: string;
+    readonly as_of: string;
+} | {
+    /** Per image-token, USD — the provider tiles the image into input tokens
+     * (LiteLLM `input_cost_per_image_token`). */
+    readonly unit: "per_token";
+    readonly usd_per_token: number;
+    readonly source: string;
+    readonly as_of: string;
+};
 /** Non-text input units, USD per unit. */
 export interface ModalityRates {
     readonly image_per_unit?: number | null;
     readonly audio_per_second?: number | null;
+    /** Typed, provenance-bearing image-input price (UC-3 M0). Additive and
+     * optional; absent when the vendor's image price could not be sourced —
+     * absence is honest, never a zero or a guess. Supersedes the bare
+     * `image_per_unit` scalar for readers that understand the billing model (the
+     * scalar stays this pass — S3 order of destruction). */
+    readonly image_input?: ImageInputPrice | null;
 }
 export interface ModelPricingV2 {
     /** standard-tier text — the only REQUIRED rates block. */

package/dist/registry/pricing-shape.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/registry/pricing-shape.js

@@ -99,7 +99,16 @@ function describePricingV2(pricing) {
     }
     const contextBands = (pricing.context_bands ?? []).map((b) => `above ${b.above_tokens.toLocaleString()} tok: ${inOut(b.rates)}`);
     const modality = [];
-    if (pricing.modality?.image_per_unit != null) {
+    // Typed image-input price wins over the bare scalar when present (UC-3 M0) —
+    // it carries the billing model, so a reader is never left guessing per-image
+    // vs per-token. Absent ⇒ nothing rendered (honest absence, never a $0).
+    const imageInput = pricing.modality?.image_input;
+    if (imageInput != null) {
+        modality.push(imageInput.unit === "per_image"
+            ? `image: $${imageInput.usd_per_image.toFixed(4)} per image`
+            : `image: ${perMtok(imageInput.usd_per_token)} per Mtok (tiled to tokens)`);
+    }
+    else if (pricing.modality?.image_per_unit != null) {
         modality.push(`image: $${pricing.modality.image_per_unit.toFixed(4)} per unit`);
     }
     if (pricing.modality?.audio_per_second != null) {

package/dist/registry/rows.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"rows.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/registry/rows.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;GAMG;AAIH,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,UAAU,CAAC;AAyC/C;;;;;GAKG;AACH,wBAAgB,gBAAgB,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,cAAc,EAAE,CA2BxE"}
+{"version":3,"file":"rows.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/registry/rows.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;GAMG;AAIH,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,UAAU,CAAC;AA0C/C;;;;;GAKG;AACH,wBAAgB,gBAAgB,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,cAAc,EAAE,CA4BxE"}

package/dist/registry/rows.js

@@ -49,6 +49,7 @@ function loadRegistryRows(registryPath) {
             nativeRungRate: entry.probed?.schema?.native_rung_rate ?? null,
             groundedRate: entry.probed?.grounding?.grounded_rate ?? null,
             cacheHitRate: entry.probed?.caching?.cache_hit_rate ?? null,
+            imageExtractRate: entry.probed?.image?.extract_rate ?? null,
             effectiveUsdPer1k: effective.get(entry.model_key) ?? null,
             discrepancies: entry.discrepancies?.length ?? 0,
             probedAsOf: entry.probed?.as_of ?? null,

package/dist/registry/select.d.ts

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ import type { CapabilityFlag } from "../types/provider";
 import type { Requirement } from "../types/route";
 /** The capability predicates a question can carry. Deliberately the probed
  * dimensions only — we answer from measurement, not from provider claims. */
-export type CapabilityPredicate = "structured-native" | "structured-coached" | "grounding" | "caching";
+export type CapabilityPredicate = "structured-native" | "structured-coached" | "grounding" | "caching" | "image_input";
 export declare const ALL_CAPABILITY_PREDICATES: readonly CapabilityPredicate[];
 /** Plain-language gloss per predicate — the explainability layer travels
  * WITH the answer (console-explainability.md §1), it is not a separate doc. */
@@ -34,6 +34,11 @@ export interface ModelSelectRow {
     readonly nativeRungRate: number | null;
     readonly groundedRate: number | null;
     readonly cacheHitRate: number | null;
+    /** Probed image-input schema-conformant extraction rate (UC-3 M0). `null` when
+     * the model has NOT been probed on the image class — which the filter treats
+     * as "does not qualify" (a match needs measured evidence), NEVER as "cannot"
+     * (that distinction is preserved by the surfaces that render it). */
+    readonly imageExtractRate: number | null;
     readonly effectiveUsdPer1k: number | null;
     readonly discrepancies: number;
     readonly probedAsOf: string | null;

package/dist/registry/select.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/registry/select.js

@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ exports.ALL_CAPABILITY_PREDICATES = [
     "structured-coached",
     "grounding",
     "caching",
+    "image_input",
 ];
 /** Plain-language gloss per predicate — the explainability layer travels
  * WITH the answer (console-explainability.md §1), it is not a separate doc. */
@@ -36,9 +37,12 @@ exports.PREDICATE_GLOSS = {
     "structured-coached": "output matched the schema at least 90% of probed samples, whether or not the provider enforced it natively",
     grounding: "at least half of probed answers cited real retrieved sources rather than answering from memory",
     caching: "repeat calls actually reported cached input tokens — a measured discount, not a claim",
+    image_input: "a probe sent a form image and the model returned schema-conformant JSON extracting the planted fields on at least 90% of samples — a MEASURED read of an image, never a provider's vision claim",
 };
 const CONFORMANCE_BAR = 0.9;
 const GROUNDED_BAR = 0.5;
+/** Image-input extraction bar (UC-3 M0) — the same 0.9 the schema bar uses. */
+const IMAGE_BAR = 0.9;
 function hasCapability(row, cap) {
     switch (cap) {
         case "structured-native":
@@ -49,6 +53,12 @@ function hasCapability(row, cap) {
             return (row.groundedRate ?? 0) >= GROUNDED_BAR;
         case "caching":
             return (row.cacheHitRate ?? 0) > 0;
+        case "image_input":
+            // Probed-only: an unprobed model (null) is never returned as image-capable
+            // — absence is not a match. It is also not "cannot": the filter answers
+            // "which models we MEASURED can do this", and the empty-selection prose
+            // says exactly that.
+            return (row.imageExtractRate ?? 0) >= IMAGE_BAR;
     }
 }
 /** Question scaffolding. A search box gets keywords; the MCP oracle gets a
@@ -71,6 +81,7 @@ const CAP_WORDS = [
     [["json", "strict", "structured", "schema"], "structured-native"],
     [["grounded", "grounding", "search", "web"], "grounding"],
     [["cache", "caching", "cached"], "caching"],
+    [["image", "images", "vision", "multimodal", "ocr"], "image_input"],
 ];
 /** The tiny grammar behind the query box and the oracle's free-text input:
  * capability words + an "under $N/M" price cap; everything else is a