modelrig 0.8.0 → 0.9.0

package/dist/watch/evaluate.d.ts

@@ -56,7 +56,28 @@ export interface WatchConfig {
  * Analyst's triggers ride the widened kinds (`insight`/`promote-eval`) or reuse
  * `bakeoff` for an Analyst-initiated bake-off — all through the SAME proposals
  * machinery and the SAME `submitDrafts` seam (trajectory F1/F4, one emission path). */
-export type ProposalTrigger = EconomicsTrigger | ConformDegradationTrigger | AnalystClusterTrigger | AnalystPromoteEvalTrigger | AnalystBakeoffTrigger | ManualChallengerTrigger;
+export type ProposalTrigger = EconomicsTrigger | ConformDegradationTrigger | AnalystClusterTrigger | AnalystPromoteEvalTrigger | AnalystBakeoffTrigger | ManualChallengerTrigger | UpgradeOpportunityTrigger | RegretBreachTrigger | OptimizerImprovementTrigger;
+/**
+ * IP-2a-2: an EXPLICIT optimizer run raised this (the /graders/[route] console
+ * action or the `run_optimizer` MCP tool — spec-ip2 §2; no cron, no sweep).
+ * `kind` stays `"swap"`: the winning arm is a variant swap in the wide sense
+ * (a model pin, a prompt override, or both), delivered through the SAME
+ * never-silent machinery — the change_spec on the evidence is the
+ * machine-readable half. `bakeoffId` (the eval run that PROVED the winner) is
+ * deliberately INSIDE the hash: each explicit run is its own decision record,
+ * never deduped against an earlier run's.
+ */
+export interface OptimizerImprovementTrigger {
+    readonly type: "optimizer_improvement";
+    readonly route: string;
+    /** Which inputs the engine ran on: prompt bytes (G1 open) or config-only. */
+    readonly mode: "prompt" | "config";
+    /** The bake-off (eval run) this run scored candidates through. */
+    readonly bakeoffId: string;
+    /** Honest input counts at trigger time. */
+    readonly evalCasesN: number;
+    readonly gradesN: number;
+}
 /**
  * A human-initiated declare-first challenger (routing-console spec §2.4 / §3, R3)
  * — the console picker (or the oracle) proposes trialing a specific model on a
@@ -149,6 +170,68 @@ export interface EconomicsTrigger {
     readonly newRates?: TokenRates;
     readonly pricing?: TokenRates | null;
 }
+/** An aggregate regret band over one window — the quality twin of the cost
+ * odometer's savings band (spec §2). Carries ONLY aggregate regret numbers +
+ * the paired n (content-custody: no capture content, ever). `regretCi95` is a
+ * seeded paired bootstrap; `nPaired` is the window's paired-sample count. */
+export interface RegretBandSummary {
+    /** Window bounds — inclusive-from / exclusive-to ISO days. */
+    readonly from: string;
+    readonly to: string;
+    readonly regretMean: number;
+    readonly regretCi95: readonly [number, number];
+    readonly nPaired: number;
+}
+/** N4 upgrade trigger (spec §4.1): the route's reference/ceiling ROSE — a new
+ * registry model, a new snapshot of the reference, or a Q1 regret breach — so a
+ * bake-off is proposed to measure the opportunity. The mirror image of
+ * `price_change`/`new_model`. Fires ONLY for a route that resolves a reference
+ * (invariant `upswap-opt-in-only`). */
+export interface UpgradeOpportunityTrigger {
+    readonly type: "upgrade_opportunity";
+    readonly route: string;
+    /** The model that raised the ceiling (new registry entry, or a new snapshot). */
+    readonly reference: CandidateEconomics;
+    /** Why it fired — console/audit context; the idempotency hash keys on the ref
+     * identity (+ snapshot) + cause, NOT the whole trigger. */
+    readonly cause: "new_reference" | "reference_snapshot" | "regret_breach";
+    /** Present when the fire came from Q1 (cause=regret_breach): the band that
+     * tripped ε — so the console shows WHY without a second read. */
+    readonly band?: RegretBandSummary;
+}
+/** Q1 regret-breach trigger (spec §5.2): the recent window's regret upper-CI
+ * exceeded ε, OR drifted up from baseline by ≥ the ruled margin, with min-n on
+ * BOTH sides. Emits `kind: "bakeoff"` — the sampled monitor number is the ALARM,
+ * a fresh bake-off is the EVIDENCE (and, on an opted-in route, where an up-swap
+ * winner is found → Q1 feeds N4). */
+export interface RegretBreachTrigger {
+    readonly type: "regret_breach";
+    readonly route: string;
+    /** What we measured against. */
+    readonly reference: CandidateEconomics;
+    readonly recent: RegretBandSummary;
+    readonly baseline: RegretBandSummary;
+    /** The route's `max_regret` (null ⇒ drift-only breach). */
+    readonly epsilon: number | null;
+    readonly breachKind: "over_epsilon" | "drift_up";
+    readonly minN: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Idempotency key for an `upgrade_opportunity` — per (route, reference, cause,
+ * snapshot) ONLY (spec §4.1), so the `band`/audit context never splits a dedupe.
+ * A re-run over the SAME ceiling is a no-op via the `(org_id, route,
+ * trigger_hash)` unique index; a NEWER snapshot (distinct `snapshotId`) is a
+ * genuinely new opportunity and a distinct hash.
+ */
+export declare function upgradeTriggerHash(route: string, reference: CandidateEconomics, cause: UpgradeOpportunityTrigger["cause"], snapshotId?: string): string;
+/**
+ * Idempotency key for a `regret_breach` — per (route, reference, window bounds,
+ * breachKind) ONLY (spec §5.2), so the sampled band's noisy per-run regret
+ * numbers never split a dedupe. The window bounds are day-quantized off the
+ * injected `now`, so a re-run the SAME day is a no-op via the `(org_id, route,
+ * trigger_hash)` unique index.
+ */
+export declare function regretBreachTriggerHash(route: string, reference: CandidateEconomics, windowFrom: string, windowTo: string, breachKind: RegretBreachTrigger["breachKind"]): string;
 /** One side of the degradation comparison (E4 chunk B) — a window's conform
  * rate over its evaluations. Dates are inclusive-from / exclusive-to ISO days. */
 export interface ConformWindow {

package/dist/watch/evaluate.d.ts.map

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package/dist/watch/evaluate.js

@@ -17,6 +17,8 @@
  */
 Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
 exports.PROPOSAL_TTL_DAYS = void 0;
+exports.upgradeTriggerHash = upgradeTriggerHash;
+exports.regretBreachTriggerHash = regretBreachTriggerHash;
 exports.triggerHash = triggerHash;
 exports.manualChallengerTriggerHash = manualChallengerTriggerHash;
 exports.evaluateEvents = evaluateEvents;
@@ -24,6 +26,32 @@ exports.buildCacheContext = buildCacheContext;
 exports.explainCacheContext = explainCacheContext;
 const node_crypto_1 = require("node:crypto");
 const effective_rate_1 = require("../registry/effective-rate");
+/**
+ * Idempotency key for an `upgrade_opportunity` — per (route, reference, cause,
+ * snapshot) ONLY (spec §4.1), so the `band`/audit context never splits a dedupe.
+ * A re-run over the SAME ceiling is a no-op via the `(org_id, route,
+ * trigger_hash)` unique index; a NEWER snapshot (distinct `snapshotId`) is a
+ * genuinely new opportunity and a distinct hash.
+ */
+function upgradeTriggerHash(route, reference, cause, snapshotId) {
+    return (0, node_crypto_1.createHash)("sha256")
+        .update(`upgrade_opportunity\n${route}\n${reference.provider}/${reference.model}\n${cause}\n${snapshotId ?? ""}`)
+        .digest("hex")
+        .slice(0, 32);
+}
+/**
+ * Idempotency key for a `regret_breach` — per (route, reference, window bounds,
+ * breachKind) ONLY (spec §5.2), so the sampled band's noisy per-run regret
+ * numbers never split a dedupe. The window bounds are day-quantized off the
+ * injected `now`, so a re-run the SAME day is a no-op via the `(org_id, route,
+ * trigger_hash)` unique index.
+ */
+function regretBreachTriggerHash(route, reference, windowFrom, windowTo, breachKind) {
+    return (0, node_crypto_1.createHash)("sha256")
+        .update(`regret_breach\n${route}\n${reference.provider}/${reference.model}\n${windowFrom}\n${windowTo}\n${breachKind}`)
+        .digest("hex")
+        .slice(0, 32);
+}
 exports.PROPOSAL_TTL_DAYS = 30;
 /** Reference token mix for blending input/output rates into one comparable
  * number: 3 input tokens per output token — a conservative, route-agnostic

package/dist/watch/monitor.d.ts

@@ -110,7 +110,13 @@ export interface MonitorReadsConfig {
 }
 /** PostgREST reads for a Monitor cycle (service role; mirrors the proposals
  * client). Two org-scoped queries, joined in-SDK by `runMonitorCycle` — no DDL,
- * no view (spec §3.1). `taskFor` batches ids ≤100 (T9 — PostgREST URLs fail
- * silently around 8KB). */
+ * no view (spec §3.1). The deterministic-eval read addresses `grades` directly
+ * (grade primitive, GP-2): `artifact_evaluations` was a compat view dropped by
+ * 00071, so this reads artifact-SUBJECT deterministic grades (`subject_kind=
+ * eq.artifact&kind=eq.deterministic`) and derives `passed = score >= 0.5`. This
+ * is the exact set the old read effectively used: run-subject deterministic rows
+ * carried a NULL `artifact_id`, so they never joined a task in `rollupConformRate`
+ * and were always dropped downstream. `taskFor` batches ids ≤100 (T9 — PostgREST
+ * URLs fail silently around 8KB). */
 export declare function createMonitorReads(config: MonitorReadsConfig): MonitorReads;
 //# sourceMappingURL=monitor.d.ts.map

package/dist/watch/monitor.d.ts.map

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package/dist/watch/monitor.js

@@ -164,8 +164,14 @@ async function runMonitorCycle(reads, submitDrafts, now, config = exports.DEFAUL
 }
 /** PostgREST reads for a Monitor cycle (service role; mirrors the proposals
  * client). Two org-scoped queries, joined in-SDK by `runMonitorCycle` — no DDL,
- * no view (spec §3.1). `taskFor` batches ids ≤100 (T9 — PostgREST URLs fail
- * silently around 8KB). */
+ * no view (spec §3.1). The deterministic-eval read addresses `grades` directly
+ * (grade primitive, GP-2): `artifact_evaluations` was a compat view dropped by
+ * 00071, so this reads artifact-SUBJECT deterministic grades (`subject_kind=
+ * eq.artifact&kind=eq.deterministic`) and derives `passed = score >= 0.5`. This
+ * is the exact set the old read effectively used: run-subject deterministic rows
+ * carried a NULL `artifact_id`, so they never joined a task in `rollupConformRate`
+ * and were always dropped downstream. `taskFor` batches ids ≤100 (T9 — PostgREST
+ * URLs fail silently around 8KB). */
 function createMonitorReads(config) {
     const base = config.supabaseUrl.replace(/\/$/, "");
     const fetchFn = config.fetchFn ?? fetch;
@@ -180,9 +186,11 @@ function createMonitorReads(config) {
     }
     return {
         async recentDeterministicEvals(sinceIso) {
-            const rows = await get(`artifact_evaluations?select=artifact_id,passed,created_at&org_id=eq.${org}` +
-                `&evaluator_kind=eq.deterministic&created_at=gte.${encodeURIComponent(sinceIso)}`);
-            return rows.map((r) => ({ artifactId: r.artifact_id, passed: r.passed, createdAt: r.created_at }));
+            const rows = await get(`grades?select=subject_id,score,created_at&org_id=eq.${org}` +
+                `&subject_kind=eq.artifact&kind=eq.deterministic&created_at=gte.${encodeURIComponent(sinceIso)}`);
+            // Grade primitive: score is the NOT-NULL primitive; the pass/fail verdict is
+            // DERIVED (passed = score >= 0.5), never stored.
+            return rows.map((r) => ({ artifactId: r.subject_id, passed: r.score >= 0.5, createdAt: r.created_at }));
         },
         async taskFor(artifactIds) {
             const out = new Map();

package/dist/watch/regret-monitor-cli.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+/**
+ * `modelrig regret-monitor --route <route> [--dry-run] [--json]` — run ONE Q1
+ * regret-monitor cycle for a route locally (near-optimal spec §6). Prints the
+ * band (regret ± CI, n, the ε line, the 7d-vs-28d drift arrow, last-measured) and
+ * any `regret_breach` proposal it would file. `--dry-run` computes the band +
+ * draft WITHOUT persisting the cycle or submitting the proposal.
+ *
+ * This is the LOCAL/self-host proof of the cycle; the multi-tenant hosted run is
+ * `regret-monitor-main` (a POST-DEPLOY gate — keyed reference replay + Matt's
+ * per-route reference envelope). Reuses `runRegretMonitorCycle` unchanged (N2 — no
+ * second implementation). T12: reads/writes ride the `bakeoffs` mirror through the
+ * control-plane client, never a bespoke DB path.
+ */
+import type { Flags } from "../cli";
+export declare function cmdRegretMonitor(flags: Flags): Promise<number>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=regret-monitor-cli.d.ts.map

package/dist/watch/regret-monitor-cli.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/watch/regret-monitor-cli.js

@@ -0,0 +1,137 @@
+"use strict";
+/**
+ * `modelrig regret-monitor --route <route> [--dry-run] [--json]` — run ONE Q1
+ * regret-monitor cycle for a route locally (near-optimal spec §6). Prints the
+ * band (regret ± CI, n, the ε line, the 7d-vs-28d drift arrow, last-measured) and
+ * any `regret_breach` proposal it would file. `--dry-run` computes the band +
+ * draft WITHOUT persisting the cycle or submitting the proposal.
+ *
+ * This is the LOCAL/self-host proof of the cycle; the multi-tenant hosted run is
+ * `regret-monitor-main` (a POST-DEPLOY gate — keyed reference replay + Matt's
+ * per-route reference envelope). Reuses `runRegretMonitorCycle` unchanged (N2 — no
+ * second implementation). T12: reads/writes ride the `bakeoffs` mirror through the
+ * control-plane client, never a bespoke DB path.
+ */
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+exports.cmdRegretMonitor = cmdRegretMonitor;
+const config_1 = require("../config");
+const loader_1 = require("../routes/loader");
+const rawonly_1 = require("../run/rawonly");
+const index_1 = require("../index");
+const node_os_1 = require("node:os");
+const proposals_1 = require("./proposals");
+const regret_monitor_1 = require("./regret-monitor");
+/** Format a band as "regret 1.4 pts (CI 0.6…2.3, n=180)" — every regret number
+ * carries n + CI (regret-claim-ceiling). Null band ⇒ "no cycles yet". */
+function fmtBand(band) {
+    if (band === null)
+        return "no cycles in window yet";
+    const pts = (v) => (v * 100).toFixed(1);
+    return `regret ${pts(band.regretMean)} pts (CI ${pts(band.regretCi95[0])}…${pts(band.regretCi95[1])}, n=${band.nPaired})`;
+}
+/** The 7d-vs-28d drift arrow (⬆ worse / ⬇ better / → flat), or "—" when a side
+ * is missing. */
+function driftArrow(recent, baseline) {
+    if (recent === null || baseline === null)
+        return "—";
+    const delta = recent.regretMean - baseline.regretMean;
+    if (Math.abs(delta) < 1e-9)
+        return "→ flat";
+    return delta > 0 ? `⬆ +${(delta * 100).toFixed(1)} pts vs 28d` : `⬇ ${(delta * 100).toFixed(1)} pts vs 28d`;
+}
+/** Resolve the reference identity (provider/model) for the trigger + dedupe hash
+ * from a resolved bake-off artifact — handles `reference: auto` (the concrete
+ * model is only known after the engine resolves it). */
+function referenceOf(artifact) {
+    const model = artifact.reference?.model;
+    if (typeof model !== "string")
+        return null;
+    const slash = model.indexOf("/");
+    if (slash <= 0)
+        return null;
+    return { provider: model.slice(0, slash), model: model.slice(slash + 1) };
+}
+async function cmdRegretMonitor(flags) {
+    const route = flags.named.get("route");
+    if (route === undefined || route === "") {
+        throw new Error("usage: modelrig regret-monitor --route <route> [--dry-run] [--json]");
+    }
+    const dryRun = flags.bare.has("dry-run");
+    const asJson = flags.bare.has("json");
+    const config = (0, config_1.loadConfigFromEnv)();
+    const routes = (0, loader_1.loadRoutes)((0, rawonly_1.requireRoutesDir)(config, "modelrig regret-monitor"));
+    const bundle = routes.get(route);
+    if (bundle.bakeoff?.reference === undefined) {
+        throw new Error(`route "${route}" declares no bakeoff.reference — there is no ceiling to measure regret against. ` +
+            "Add bakeoff.reference (auto or provider/model) and, optionally, bakeoff.regret_monitor.");
+    }
+    const rm = bundle.bakeoff.regretMonitor;
+    const sampleN = rm?.sampleN ?? 200;
+    const referenceEnvelope = bundle.bakeoff.referenceEnvelopeUsd;
+    const rig = (0, index_1.createRig)(config);
+    try {
+        // Run the sampled 2-arm bake-off ONCE (default vs the route's reference — the
+        // reference arm runs automatically because the route declares it). Memoize it
+        // so `runRegretMonitorCycle`'s injected collaborator returns the same artifact
+        // and we can resolve the (possibly `auto`) reference identity from it first.
+        const artifact = await rig.bakeoff(route, {
+            variants: ["default"],
+            replayLastN: sampleN,
+            ...(referenceEnvelope !== undefined ? { envelopeUsdPerVariant: referenceEnvelope } : {}),
+        });
+        const reference = referenceOf(artifact);
+        if (reference === null) {
+            throw new Error(`route "${route}" resolved no reference arm on this cycle (no reference model, or nothing to replay) — ` +
+                "cannot form a regret band. Check the reference declaration and that captures exist.");
+        }
+        const cfg = (0, regret_monitor_1.regretMonitorConfig)({
+            route,
+            reference,
+            epsilon: bundle.objective?.maxRegret ?? null,
+            ...(rm?.windowDays !== undefined ? { windowDays: rm.windowDays } : {}),
+            ...(rm?.baselineDays !== undefined ? { baselineDays: rm.baselineDays } : {}),
+        });
+        // Reads: the real bakeoffs-mirror when a direct control plane is configured;
+        // an in-memory stub for a keyless local proof (no prior cycles, no persist).
+        let reads;
+        let submitDrafts;
+        if (config.export?.mode === "direct" && !dryRun) {
+            const exp = (0, config_1.directExportOf)(config, "modelrig regret-monitor");
+            reads = (0, regret_monitor_1.createRegretMonitorReads)({
+                supabaseUrl: exp.supabaseUrl,
+                serviceRoleKey: exp.serviceRoleKey,
+                route,
+                sourceId: exp.sourceId ?? (0, node_os_1.hostname)(),
+            });
+            const client = (0, proposals_1.createProposalsClient)({ supabaseUrl: exp.supabaseUrl, serviceRoleKey: exp.serviceRoleKey });
+            submitDrafts = (drafts) => client.submitDrafts(drafts);
+        }
+        else {
+            // Local/dry proof: band from THIS cycle only, no persistence, no submit.
+            reads = { recentCycles: async () => [], persistCycle: async () => { } };
+            submitDrafts = async () => 0;
+        }
+        const result = await (0, regret_monitor_1.runRegretMonitorCycle)(reads, async () => artifact, submitDrafts, new Date(), cfg);
+        if (asJson) {
+            console.log(JSON.stringify({ route, band: result.band, baseline: result.baseline, drafts: result.drafts, inserted: result.inserted, dryRun }, null, 2));
+            return 0;
+        }
+        const epsLine = cfg.epsilon === null ? "ε: none declared (drift-only)" : `ε (max_regret): ${(cfg.epsilon * 100).toFixed(1)} pts`;
+        console.log(`regret-monitor ${route} vs reference ${reference.provider}/${reference.model}`);
+        console.log(`  recent (7d):   ${fmtBand(result.band)}`);
+        console.log(`  baseline(28d): ${fmtBand(result.baseline)}`);
+        console.log(`  ${epsLine} · drift ${driftArrow(result.band, result.baseline)} · last measured ${artifact.ranAt}`);
+        if (result.drafts.length > 0) {
+            const t = result.drafts[0].trigger;
+            console.log(`  BREACH (${t.breachKind ?? "?"}) → ${dryRun ? "would file" : `filed ${result.inserted}`} ` +
+                "one regret_breach bake-off proposal. Approval stays human: run the bake-off, then swap execute --approve.");
+        }
+        else {
+            console.log("  within bounds — no proposal (measured-only; below min-n both sides ⇒ also no proposal).");
+        }
+        return 0;
+    }
+    finally {
+        await rig.close();
+    }
+}

package/dist/watch/regret-monitor.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
+/**
+ * Q1 regret monitor — a standing measurement of how far a served route sits from
+ * its reference/ceiling over time (near-optimal spec §5). The quality twin of the
+ * cost odometer: the watch loop reacts to PRICE, the conform Monitor
+ * (`watch/monitor.ts`) reacts to shape, and THIS reacts to REGRET drifting up.
+ *
+ * A cycle is, precisely, a 2-arm SAMPLED bake-off — `default` vs the route's
+ * `__reference__` — under `reference_envelope_usd`. It therefore REUSES the
+ * bake-off engine (`runBakeoff`) wholesale via the injected `runSampledBakeoff`
+ * collaborator: the reference arm, `replayVariant`, `pairedRegret`, partial-result
+ * honesty and metering all come for free. This file adds NO regret estimator — it
+ * is the Monitor's STRUCTURE (a per-route band, a drift rule, a cron) wrapped
+ * around the number the engine already produces (`metrics.regret`).
+ *
+ * ── MEASURED-ONLY DOCTRINE (mirrors the conform Monitor) ───────────────────
+ * A breach is proposed only when BOTH the recent window and the trailing baseline
+ * clear `REGRET_MONITOR_MIN_N` PAIRED samples. Below that the band is too noisy to
+ * act on — the house rule is to refuse rather than propose on thin data. The rule
+ * is deterministic over an injected `now`, so the fixture test is reproducible.
+ *
+ * ZERO DDL (spec §10): a cycle mirrors as a `bakeoffs` row MARKED a monitor cycle
+ * inside the existing matrix jsonb (`regret-band-provenance`) so the band reads
+ * back over time, never double-proposes, and never seeds the odometer.
+ */
+import type { BakeoffArtifact } from "../bakeoff/types";
+import type { CandidateEconomics, ProposalDraft, RegretBandSummary } from "./evaluate";
+/** The recent window whose regret we judge — a week, mirroring the conform
+ * Monitor (smooths daily noise, stays responsive to a just-landed regression). */
+export declare const REGRET_MONITOR_WINDOW_DAYS = 7;
+/** The trailing baseline the window is compared against — the 28 days before it
+ * (non-overlapping), mirroring the conform Monitor + the proposal TTL cadence. */
+export declare const REGRET_MONITOR_BASELINE_DAYS = 28;
+/** Minimum PAIRED samples required in EACH window before the band is trustworthy
+ * enough to propose on (measured-only; mirrors `MONITOR_MIN_N`). */
+export declare const REGRET_MONITOR_MIN_N = 20;
+/** Drift-up margin in QUALITY POINTS (0..1 — the same scale as `regretMean` and
+ * ε / `max_regret`). A recent window whose mean regret sits this far ABOVE the
+ * baseline is materially worse even while still under ε, and files a drift_up
+ * breach. Distinct from ε (the absolute bound); this is the relative move. */
+export declare const REGRET_MONITOR_MARGIN = 0.02;
+export interface RegretMonitorConfig {
+    /** The route this cycle monitors. */
+    readonly route: string;
+    /** The reference (ceiling) it measures against — recorded on the trigger. */
+    readonly reference: CandidateEconomics;
+    /** The route's `objective.max_regret` (ε). null ⇒ drift-only (no over_epsilon
+     * breach; a drift_up breach can still fire). */
+    readonly epsilon: number | null;
+    readonly windowDays: number;
+    readonly baselineDays: number;
+    /** Drift-up margin, quality points (0..1). */
+    readonly margin: number;
+    readonly minN: number;
+}
+/** Build a config from the route's declared knobs, defaulting to the house
+ * constants (mirrors `DEFAULT_MONITOR_CONFIG`). */
+export declare function regretMonitorConfig(input: {
+    readonly route: string;
+    readonly reference: CandidateEconomics;
+    readonly epsilon: number | null;
+    readonly windowDays?: number;
+    readonly baselineDays?: number;
+    readonly margin?: number;
+    readonly minN?: number;
+}): RegretMonitorConfig;
+/** One persisted monitor cycle's regret point (the `default` arm's regret vs the
+ * reference on that cycle's paired sample). Read back to form the band. */
+export interface RegretCyclePoint {
+    readonly date: string;
+    readonly regretMean: number;
+    readonly regretCi95: readonly [number, number];
+    readonly nPaired: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Aggregate the cycle points whose date is in [from, to) into one band. The
+ * pooled mean + CI bounds are nPaired-WEIGHTED across the window's cycles (each
+ * cycle already carries its own seeded paired-bootstrap CI from `pairedRegret`);
+ * `nPaired` is the window's paired total — the min-n gate input. Honest-limits:
+ * this pools per-cycle summaries, not per-sample data, so the CI is a weighted
+ * blend of the cycles' intervals, not a fresh cross-cycle bootstrap. Null when
+ * the window has no cycles.
+ */
+export declare function aggregateRegretBand(points: readonly RegretCyclePoint[], from: string, to: string): RegretBandSummary | null;
+/**
+ * The regret drift rule (measured-only) — mirrors `evaluateConformDegradation`.
+ * Compares the recent window band to the trailing baseline band; emits ONE
+ * `regret_breach` bake-off draft when either
+ *   • recent.regretCi95[1] > ε          (over_epsilon), or
+ *   • recent.regretMean − baseline.regretMean ≥ margin  (drift_up),
+ * with `nPaired ≥ MIN_N` on BOTH windows; else refuse. Deterministic over `now`.
+ * The trigger_hash keys on (route, reference, window bounds, breachKind) so a
+ * same-day re-run dedupes.
+ */
+export declare function evaluateRegretDrift(series: readonly RegretCyclePoint[], now: Date, config: RegretMonitorConfig): ProposalDraft[];
+/**
+ * Extract this cycle's regret point from a freshly-run 2-arm sampled bake-off —
+ * the `default` arm's regret vs the reference. Null when the artifact carries no
+ * reference/regret (no ceiling resolved ⇒ nothing to band). Pure.
+ */
+export declare function cyclePointFromArtifact(artifact: BakeoffArtifact, now: Date): RegretCyclePoint | null;
+/** A cycle to persist as a monitor-marked `bakeoffs` artifact (spec §10). Carries
+ * the full artifact (the mirror row) + the monitor marker + the epsilon it was
+ * judged against, so the band reads back with provenance. */
+export interface PersistedRegretCycle {
+    readonly route: string;
+    readonly artifact: BakeoffArtifact;
+    readonly point: RegretCyclePoint;
+    readonly epsilon: number | null;
+    /** Always true — the provenance marker (`regret-band-provenance`). */
+    readonly monitorCycle: true;
+}
+/**
+ * The reads a regret-monitor cycle needs, injected so the orchestrator is
+ * testable without a database (mirrors `MonitorReads`). Both are scoped to ONE
+ * (org, route): a hosted cron iterates them.
+ */
+export interface RegretMonitorReads {
+    /** Prior monitor-cycle regret points for this route, since `sinceIso` — the
+     * `bakeoffs` mirror filtered to MONITOR cycles (regret-band-provenance). MUST
+     * exclude non-monitor (hand-run) bake-offs so the band is provenance-clean. */
+    readonly recentCycles: (sinceIso: string) => Promise<readonly RegretCyclePoint[]>;
+    /** Persist a freshly-run cycle as a monitor-marked `bakeoffs` artifact. */
+    readonly persistCycle: (cycle: PersistedRegretCycle) => Promise<void>;
+}
+export interface RegretMonitorCycleResult {
+    /** The recent-window band for the surface (regret ± CI, n) — null when the
+     * window has no cycles yet. */
+    readonly band: RegretBandSummary | null;
+    /** The trailing baseline band — for the drift arrow on the surface. */
+    readonly baseline: RegretBandSummary | null;
+    /** This cycle's fresh point (null when no reference/regret resolved). */
+    readonly point: RegretCyclePoint | null;
+    readonly drafts: ProposalDraft[];
+    /** How many proposals the control plane actually created (0 on duplicates). */
+    readonly inserted: number;
+}
+/**
+ * One regret-monitor cycle (mirror of `runMonitorCycle`): read the prior monitor
+ * cycles, run ONE sampled bake-off (default vs the reference) via the injected
+ * collaborator, persist it as a monitor-marked artifact, then apply the drift
+ * rule over [prior + this cycle] and submit any breach draft through the EXISTING
+ * proposals client (idempotent on (route, trigger_hash)). The prior series is
+ * read BEFORE persisting this cycle, so the fresh point is counted exactly once.
+ * Never actuates — submitting a proposal is the whole of its authority.
+ */
+export declare function runRegretMonitorCycle(reads: RegretMonitorReads, runSampledBakeoff: () => Promise<BakeoffArtifact>, submitDrafts: (drafts: readonly ProposalDraft[]) => Promise<number>, now: Date, config: RegretMonitorConfig): Promise<RegretMonitorCycleResult>;
+/** The sentinel arm name that marks a `bakeoffs` matrix as a Q1 monitor cycle.
+ * A user variant can never be named this (names cannot start with `__`). */
+export declare const MONITOR_CYCLE_MARKER = "__monitor_cycle__";
+/** The `source_id` prefix that distinguishes a monitor cycle from a hand-run
+ * bake-off in the mirror. */
+export declare const MONITOR_SOURCE_PREFIX = "regret-monitor:";
+export interface RegretMonitorReadsConfig {
+    readonly supabaseUrl: string;
+    readonly serviceRoleKey: string;
+    /** The route this reads/writes cycles for (scopes both queries). */
+    readonly route: string;
+    /** The org this cycle runs for — reads/writes are org-scoped so tenants never
+     * merge. A hosted cron iterates orgs; a self-host has exactly one. */
+    readonly orgId?: string;
+    /** The host that ran the cycle — recorded after the monitor prefix. */
+    readonly sourceId: string;
+    readonly fetchFn?: typeof fetch;
+}
+/** PostgREST reads for a regret-monitor cycle (service role; mirrors
+ * createMonitorReads). ZERO DDL — reuses the `bakeoffs` mirror. */
+export declare function createRegretMonitorReads(config: RegretMonitorReadsConfig): RegretMonitorReads;
+//# sourceMappingURL=regret-monitor.d.ts.map

package/dist/watch/regret-monitor.d.ts.map

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