mindforge-cc 11.5.1 → 11.6.0

package/.mindforge/skills/osint-investigation/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: osint-investigation
+description: "Public-records OSINT investigation framework — SEC EDGAR filings, USAspending contracts, Senate lobbying, OFAC sanctions, ICIJ offshore leaks, NYC property records (ACRIS), OpenCorporates registries, CourtListener court records, Wayback Machine archives, Wikipedia + Wikidata, GDELT news monitoring. Entity resolution across sources, cross-link analysis, timing correlation, evidence chains. Python stdlib only."
+version: 0.1.0
+status: stable
+min_mindforge_version: 11.5.1
+triggers: OSINT investigation, public records research, entity investigation, due diligence, open source intelligence, osint research, public records lookup, investigate entity, company due diligence, background investigation, osint analysis, open source investigation
+---
+
+# OSINT Investigation — Public Records Cross-Reference
+
+Investigative framework for public-records OSINT: government contracts,
+corporate filings, lobbying, sanctions, offshore leaks, property records,
+court records, web archives, knowledge bases, and global news. Resolve
+entities across heterogeneous sources, build cross-links with explicit
+confidence, run statistical timing tests, and produce structured evidence
+chains.
+
+**Python stdlib only.** Zero install. Works on Linux, macOS, Windows. Most
+sources work with no API key (OpenCorporates has an optional free token
+that raises rate limits).
+
+to cover identity / property / litigation / archives / news sources that
+the original didn't address.
+
+## When to use this skill
+
+Use when the user asks for:
+
+- "follow the money" — government contracts, lobbying → legislation, sanctions
+- corporate due diligence — who controls company X, where are they
+  incorporated, who serves on their boards, what filings have they made
+- sanctions screening — is entity X on OFAC SDN, ICIJ offshore leaks
+- pay-to-play investigation — contractors with offshore ties, lobbying
+  clients winning awards
+- property ownership — find recorded deeds/mortgages by name or address
+  (NYC; for other counties point users at the relevant recorder)
+- litigation history — find federal + state court opinions and PACER dockets
+- multi-source entity resolution where naming varies (LLC suffixes, abbreviations)
+- evidence-chain construction with explicit confidence levels
+- "what's been said about X" — international news (GDELT) + Wikipedia
+  narrative + Wayback Machine to recover dead URLs
+
+Do NOT use this skill for:
+
+- general web research → `web_search` / `web_extract`
+- domain/infrastructure OSINT → `domain-intel` skill
+- academic literature → `arxiv` skill
+- social-media profile discovery → `sherlock` skill (optional)
+- US **federal** campaign finance — FEC is intentionally NOT covered here
+  (the API is unreliable for ad-hoc contributor-name queries on the free
+  DEMO_KEY tier). For federal donations, point users at
+  https://www.fec.gov/data/ directly.
+
+## Workflow
+
+The agent runs scripts via the `terminal` tool. `SKILL_DIR` is the directory
+holding this SKILL.md.
+
+### 1. Identify which sources apply
+
+Read the data-source wiki entries to plan the investigation:
+
+```
+ls SKILL_DIR/references/sources/
+
+# Federal financial / regulatory
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/sec-edgar.md       # corporate filings
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/usaspending.md     # federal contracts
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/senate-ld.md       # lobbying
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/ofac-sdn.md        # sanctions
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/icij-offshore.md   # offshore leaks
+
+# Identity / property / litigation / archives / news
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/nyc-acris.md       # NYC property records
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/opencorporates.md  # global corporate registry
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/courtlistener.md   # court records (federal + state)
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/wayback.md         # Wayback Machine archives
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/wikipedia.md       # Wikipedia + Wikidata
+cat SKILL_DIR/references/sources/gdelt.md           # global news monitoring
+```
+
+Each entry follows a 9-section template: summary, access, schema, coverage,
+cross-reference keys, data quality, acquisition, legal, references.
+
+The **cross-reference potential** section maps join keys between sources — read
+those first to pick the right pair.
+
+### 2. Acquire data
+
+Each source has a stdlib-only fetch script in `SKILL_DIR/scripts/`:
+
+**Federal financial / regulatory**
+
+```bash
+# SEC EDGAR filings (corporate disclosures)
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_sec_edgar.py --cik 0000320193 \
+    --types 10-K,10-Q --out data/edgar_filings.csv
+
+# USAspending federal contracts
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_usaspending.py --recipient "EXAMPLE CORP" \
+    --fy 2024 --out data/contracts.csv
+
+# Senate LD-1 / LD-2 lobbying disclosures
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_senate_ld.py --client "EXAMPLE CORP" \
+    --year 2024 --out data/lobbying.csv
+
+# OFAC SDN sanctions list (full snapshot)
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_ofac_sdn.py --out data/ofac_sdn.csv
+
+# ICIJ Offshore Leaks — downloads ~70 MB bulk CSV on first use,
+# then searches it locally. Cached for 30 days under
+# $HERMES_OSINT_CACHE/icij/ (default: ~/.cache/hermes-osint/icij/).
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_icij_offshore.py --entity "EXAMPLE CORP" \
+    --out data/icij.csv
+```
+
+**Identity / property / litigation / archives / news**
+
+```bash
+# NYC property records (deeds, mortgages, liens) — ACRIS via Socrata
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_nyc_acris.py --name "SMITH, JOHN" \
+    --out data/acris.csv
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_nyc_acris.py --address "571 HUDSON" \
+    --out data/acris_addr.csv
+
+# OpenCorporates — 130+ jurisdiction corporate registry
+# (free token required; set OPENCORPORATES_API_TOKEN or pass --token)
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_opencorporates.py --query "Example Corp" \
+    --jurisdiction us_ny --out data/opencorporates.csv
+
+# CourtListener — federal + state court opinions, PACER dockets
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_courtlistener.py --query "Smith v. Example Corp" \
+    --type opinions --out data/courts.csv
+
+# Wayback Machine — historical web captures
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_wayback.py --url "example.com" \
+    --match host --collapse digest --out data/wayback.csv
+
+# Wikipedia + Wikidata — narrative bio + structured facts
+# Set HERMES_OSINT_UA=your-app/1.0 (your@email) to identify yourself
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_wikipedia.py --query "Bill Gates" \
+    --out data/wp.csv
+
+# GDELT — global news in 100+ languages, ~2015→present
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/fetch_gdelt.py --query '"Example Corp"' \
+    --timespan 1y --out data/gdelt.csv
+```
+
+All outputs are normalized CSV with a header row. Re-run scripts idempotently.
+
+When a private individual won't be in a source (e.g. SEC EDGAR for a non-public-
+company person, USAspending for someone who isn't a federal contractor, Senate
+LDA for someone who isn't a lobbying client), the script returns 0 rows with a
+clear warning rather than silently writing an empty CSV. EDGAR specifically
+flags when the company-name resolver matched an individual Form 3/4/5 filer
+rather than a corporate registrant.
+
+Rate-limit notes are in each source's wiki entry. Default fetchers sleep
+politely between paginated requests. **API keys raise rate limits** for
+sources that support them (`SEC_USER_AGENT`, `SENATE_LDA_TOKEN`,
+`OPENCORPORATES_API_TOKEN`, `COURTLISTENER_TOKEN`). All scripts surface
+429 responses immediately with the upstream's quota message so the user
+knows to slow down or supply a key.
+
+### 3. Resolve entities across sources
+
+Normalize names and find matches between two CSV files:
+
+```bash
+# Match lobbying clients (Senate LDA) against contract recipients (USAspending)
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/entity_resolution.py \
+    --left  data/lobbying.csv   --left-name-col  client_name \
+    --right data/contracts.csv  --right-name-col recipient_name \
+    --out data/cross_links.csv
+```
+
+Three matching tiers with explicit confidence:
+
+| Tier | Method | Confidence |
+|------|--------|------------|
+| `exact` | Normalized strings equal after suffix/punctuation strip | high |
+| `fuzzy` | Sorted-token equality (word-bag match) | medium |
+| `token_overlap` | ≥60% token overlap, ≥2 shared tokens, tokens ≥4 chars | low |
+
+Output `cross_links.csv` columns: `match_type, confidence, left_name,
+right_name, left_normalized, right_normalized, left_row, right_row`.
+
+### 4. Statistical timing correlation (optional)
+
+Test whether two time series cluster suspiciously close together — e.g.
+lobbying filings near contract awards — using a permutation test:
+
+```bash
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/timing_analysis.py \
+    --donations data/lobbying.csv --donation-date-col filing_date \
+        --donation-amount-col income --donation-donor-col client_name \
+        --donation-recipient-col registrant_name \
+    --contracts data/contracts.csv --contract-date-col award_date \
+        --contract-vendor-col recipient_name \
+    --cross-links data/cross_links.csv \
+    --permutations 1000 \
+    --out data/timing.json
+```
+
+The script's column flags are intentionally generic — the original tool was
+written for donations vs awards, but it works for any (event, payee) time
+series joined through cross-links. Null hypothesis: event timing is
+independent of award dates. One-tailed p-value = fraction of permutations
+with mean nearest-award distance ≤ observed. Minimum 3 events per (payer,
+vendor) pair to run the test.
+
+### 5. Build the findings JSON (evidence chain)
+
+```bash
+python3 SKILL_DIR/scripts/build_findings.py \
+    --cross-links data/cross_links.csv \
+    --timing data/timing.json \
+    --out data/findings.json
+```
+
+Every finding has `id, title, severity, confidence, summary, evidence[], sources[]`.
+Each evidence item points back to a specific row in a source CSV. The user (or a
+follow-up agent) can verify every claim against its source.
+
+## Confidence and evidence discipline
+
+This is the load-bearing rule of the skill. Tell the user:
+
+- Every claim must trace to a record. No naked assertions.
+- Confidence tier travels with the claim. `match_type=fuzzy` is "probable",
+  not "confirmed."
+- Entity resolution produces candidates, NOT conclusions. A `fuzzy` match
+  between "ACME LLC" and "Acme Holdings Group" is a lead, not a fact.
+- Statistical significance ≠ wrongdoing. p < 0.05 means the timing pattern
+  is unlikely under the null. It does not establish corruption.
+- All data sources here are public records. They may still contain
+  inaccuracies, stale info, or redactions (GDPR, sealed records).
+
+## Adding a new data source
+
+Use the template:
+
+```bash
+cp SKILL_DIR/templates/source-template.md \
+    SKILL_DIR/references/sources/<your-source>.md
+```
+
+Fill in all 9 sections. Write a `fetch_<source>.py` script in `scripts/` that
+uses stdlib only and writes a normalized CSV. Update the source list in the
+"When to use" section above.
+
+## Tools and their limits
+
+- `entity_resolution.py` does NOT use external fuzzy libraries (no rapidfuzz,
+  no jellyfish). Token-bag matching is the upper bound here. If you need
+  Levenshtein, transliteration, or phonetic matching, pip-install separately.
+- `timing_analysis.py` uses Python's `random` for permutations. For
+  reproducibility, pass `--seed N`.
+- `fetch_*.py` scripts use `urllib.request` and respect `Retry-After`. Heavy
+  bulk usage may still violate ToS — read each source's legal section first.
+
+## Legal note
+
+All Phase-1 sources are public records. Bulk acquisition is permitted under
+their respective access terms (FOIA, public records law, ICIJ explicit
+publication, OFAC public data). However:
+
+- Some sources rate-limit aggressively. Respect their headers.
+- Some redact registrant info (GDPR on WHOIS, sealed filings).
+- Cross-referencing public records to identify private individuals can have
+  ethical implications. The skill produces evidence chains, not accusations.
+
+## Mandatory actions when this skill is active
+
+Before applying this skill:
+- [ ] Read the task requirements fully before acting
+- [ ] Confirm you understand the goal and constraints
+- [ ] Check for existing work or prior context in the codebase
+
+While working:
+- [ ] Follow the methodology described above step by step
+- [ ] Document any decisions or findings as you go
+
+After completing:
+- [ ] Self-check: does the output satisfy the original requirement?
+- [ ] Verify no regressions or unintended side effects
+