kanmi-perf-revenue 1.0.0 → 1.1.0

package/dist/empirical/cohort.js

@@ -0,0 +1,305 @@
+/**
+ * Cohort Analysis
+ *
+ * Track same users over time to understand:
+ * - How does performance affect repeat purchases?
+ * - Do users with good first-experience return more?
+ * - Lifetime value by performance cohort
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+// =============================================================================
+// PERFORMANCE COHORT ANALYSIS
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Analyze users by performance cohort.
+ */
+export function analyzePerformanceCohorts(sessions, metric = 'lcp') {
+    // Group sessions by user
+    const userSessions = groupByUser(sessions);
+    // Define cohorts
+    const cohortDefinitions = getCohortDefinitions(metric);
+    const cohorts = [];
+    for (const def of cohortDefinitions) {
+        const usersInCohort = new Map();
+        // Find users whose FIRST session falls in this performance range
+        for (const [userId, userSessionList] of userSessions) {
+            if (userSessionList.length === 0)
+                continue;
+            // Sort by timestamp to find first session
+            const sorted = [...userSessionList].sort((a, b) => (a.timestamp || '').localeCompare(b.timestamp || ''));
+            const firstSession = sorted[0];
+            const metricValue = getMetricValue(firstSession, metric);
+            if (metricValue !== null && metricValue >= def.min && metricValue < def.max) {
+                usersInCohort.set(userId, userSessionList);
+            }
+        }
+        if (usersInCohort.size === 0)
+            continue;
+        // Calculate cohort metrics
+        let totalSessions = 0;
+        let firstSessionConversions = 0;
+        let repeatPurchases = 0;
+        let totalRevenue = 0;
+        let purchaseCount = 0;
+        for (const [_userId, userSessionList] of usersInCohort) {
+            totalSessions += userSessionList.length;
+            const sorted = [...userSessionList].sort((a, b) => (a.timestamp || '').localeCompare(b.timestamp || ''));
+            // First session conversion
+            if (sorted[0].has_purchase) {
+                firstSessionConversions++;
+                purchaseCount++;
+                totalRevenue += sorted[0].purchase_value;
+            }
+            // Repeat purchases (any subsequent conversion)
+            const repeatConversions = sorted.slice(1).filter(s => s.has_purchase);
+            if (repeatConversions.length > 0) {
+                repeatPurchases++;
+                purchaseCount += repeatConversions.length;
+                totalRevenue += repeatConversions.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s.purchase_value, 0);
+            }
+        }
+        const uniqueUsers = usersInCohort.size;
+        const aov = purchaseCount > 0 ? totalRevenue / purchaseCount : 0;
+        const ltv = uniqueUsers > 0 ? totalRevenue / uniqueUsers : 0;
+        cohorts.push({
+            cohortId: def.id,
+            description: def.description,
+            range: { min: def.min, max: def.max },
+            uniqueUsers,
+            totalSessions,
+            avgSessionsPerUser: uniqueUsers > 0 ? totalSessions / uniqueUsers : 0,
+            firstSessionCvr: uniqueUsers > 0 ? firstSessionConversions / uniqueUsers : 0,
+            repeatPurchaseRate: uniqueUsers > 0 ? repeatPurchases / uniqueUsers : 0,
+            aov,
+            ltv,
+        });
+    }
+    // Generate insights
+    const insights = [];
+    const recommendations = [];
+    if (cohorts.length >= 2) {
+        const best = cohorts.reduce((a, b) => a.ltv > b.ltv ? a : b);
+        const worst = cohorts.reduce((a, b) => a.ltv < b.ltv ? a : b);
+        if (best.ltv > worst.ltv * 1.2 && best.uniqueUsers >= 10 && worst.uniqueUsers >= 10) {
+            insights.push(`Users with ${best.description} have ${((best.ltv / worst.ltv - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% higher LTV than ${worst.description}`);
+        }
+        const goodCohort = cohorts.find(c => c.cohortId === 'good');
+        const poorCohort = cohorts.find(c => c.cohortId === 'poor');
+        if (goodCohort && poorCohort) {
+            if (goodCohort.repeatPurchaseRate > poorCohort.repeatPurchaseRate * 1.2) {
+                insights.push(`Good performance users are ${((goodCohort.repeatPurchaseRate / poorCohort.repeatPurchaseRate - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% more likely to make repeat purchases`);
+                recommendations.push('Improving first-session performance increases customer lifetime value');
+            }
+            if (goodCohort.avgSessionsPerUser > poorCohort.avgSessionsPerUser * 1.1) {
+                insights.push(`Good performance users return ${((goodCohort.avgSessionsPerUser / poorCohort.avgSessionsPerUser - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% more often`);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return {
+        type: 'performance',
+        performanceCohorts: cohorts,
+        insights,
+        recommendations,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Analyze users by acquisition time cohort.
+ */
+export function analyzeTimeCohorts(sessions) {
+    // Group sessions by user
+    const userSessions = groupByUser(sessions);
+    // Determine acquisition week for each user
+    const userAcquisition = new Map();
+    for (const [userId, userSessionList] of userSessions) {
+        const sorted = [...userSessionList].sort((a, b) => (a.timestamp || '').localeCompare(b.timestamp || ''));
+        const firstSession = sorted[0];
+        const acquisitionWeek = getWeekId(new Date(firstSession.timestamp || Date.now()));
+        userAcquisition.set(userId, {
+            week: acquisitionWeek,
+            sessions: userSessionList,
+        });
+    }
+    // Group by acquisition week
+    const weeklyUsers = new Map();
+    for (const [userId, data] of userAcquisition) {
+        if (!weeklyUsers.has(data.week)) {
+            weeklyUsers.set(data.week, new Map());
+        }
+        weeklyUsers.get(data.week).set(userId, data.sessions);
+    }
+    // Build cohort analysis
+    const timeCohorts = [];
+    const sortedWeeks = Array.from(weeklyUsers.keys()).sort();
+    for (const weekId of sortedWeeks) {
+        const usersThisWeek = weeklyUsers.get(weekId);
+        const newUsers = usersThisWeek.size;
+        let week0Conversions = 0;
+        let week1Conversions = 0;
+        let week2Conversions = 0;
+        let week3PlusConversions = 0;
+        for (const [_userId, userSessionList] of usersThisWeek) {
+            for (const session of userSessionList) {
+                if (!session.has_purchase)
+                    continue;
+                const sessionWeek = getWeekId(new Date(session.timestamp || Date.now()));
+                const weekDiff = getWeekDiff(weekId, sessionWeek);
+                if (weekDiff === 0)
+                    week0Conversions++;
+                else if (weekDiff === 1)
+                    week1Conversions++;
+                else if (weekDiff === 2)
+                    week2Conversions++;
+                else
+                    week3PlusConversions++;
+            }
+        }
+        const totalConversions = week0Conversions + week1Conversions + week2Conversions + week3PlusConversions;
+        const returnedUsers = new Set();
+        for (const [userId, userSessionList] of usersThisWeek) {
+            const hasLaterSession = userSessionList.some(s => {
+                const sessionWeek = getWeekId(new Date(s.timestamp || Date.now()));
+                return getWeekDiff(weekId, sessionWeek) > 0;
+            });
+            if (hasLaterSession) {
+                returnedUsers.add(userId);
+            }
+        }
+        timeCohorts.push({
+            weekId,
+            newUsers,
+            week0Conversions,
+            week1Conversions,
+            week2Conversions,
+            week3PlusConversions,
+            totalConversions,
+            retentionRate: newUsers > 0 ? returnedUsers.size / newUsers : 0,
+        });
+    }
+    // Generate insights
+    const insights = [];
+    const recommendations = [];
+    if (timeCohorts.length >= 3) {
+        const avgRetention = timeCohorts.reduce((sum, c) => sum + c.retentionRate, 0) / timeCohorts.length;
+        insights.push(`Average week-over-week retention: ${(avgRetention * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
+        const recentCohorts = timeCohorts.slice(-3);
+        const recentAvg = recentCohorts.reduce((sum, c) => sum + c.retentionRate, 0) / recentCohorts.length;
+        if (recentAvg > avgRetention * 1.1) {
+            insights.push('Retention trending upward in recent cohorts');
+        }
+        else if (recentAvg < avgRetention * 0.9) {
+            insights.push('Retention trending downward - investigate recent changes');
+            recommendations.push('Review recent performance changes that may affect user retention');
+        }
+    }
+    return {
+        type: 'time',
+        timeCohorts,
+        insights,
+        recommendations,
+    };
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// REPORT GENERATION
+// =============================================================================
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for cohort analysis.
+ */
+export function generateCohortMarkdown(analysis) {
+    const lines = [];
+    lines.push('## Cohort Analysis');
+    lines.push('');
+    if (analysis.performanceCohorts) {
+        lines.push('### Performance Cohorts');
+        lines.push('');
+        lines.push('Users grouped by their first-session performance.');
+        lines.push('');
+        lines.push('| Cohort | Users | Sessions/User | First CVR | Repeat Rate | LTV |');
+        lines.push('|--------|-------|---------------|-----------|-------------|-----|');
+        for (const cohort of analysis.performanceCohorts) {
+            lines.push(`| ${cohort.description} | ${cohort.uniqueUsers.toLocaleString()} | ${cohort.avgSessionsPerUser.toFixed(2)} | ${(cohort.firstSessionCvr * 100).toFixed(2)}% | ${(cohort.repeatPurchaseRate * 100).toFixed(2)}% | $${cohort.ltv.toFixed(2)} |`);
+        }
+        lines.push('');
+    }
+    if (analysis.timeCohorts && analysis.timeCohorts.length > 0) {
+        lines.push('### Time Cohorts');
+        lines.push('');
+        lines.push('Users grouped by acquisition week.');
+        lines.push('');
+        lines.push('| Week | New Users | Week 0 | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3+ | Retention |');
+        lines.push('|------|-----------|--------|--------|--------|---------|-----------|');
+        for (const cohort of analysis.timeCohorts.slice(-10)) {
+            lines.push(`| ${cohort.weekId} | ${cohort.newUsers} | ${cohort.week0Conversions} | ${cohort.week1Conversions} | ${cohort.week2Conversions} | ${cohort.week3PlusConversions} | ${(cohort.retentionRate * 100).toFixed(1)}% |`);
+        }
+        lines.push('');
+    }
+    if (analysis.insights.length > 0) {
+        lines.push('### Insights');
+        lines.push('');
+        for (const insight of analysis.insights) {
+            lines.push(`- ${insight}`);
+        }
+        lines.push('');
+    }
+    if (analysis.recommendations.length > 0) {
+        lines.push('### Recommendations');
+        lines.push('');
+        for (const rec of analysis.recommendations) {
+            lines.push(`- ${rec}`);
+        }
+        lines.push('');
+    }
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+// =============================================================================
+// HELPERS
+// =============================================================================
+function groupByUser(sessions) {
+    const result = new Map();
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        const userId = session.user_id || session.session_id;
+        if (!result.has(userId)) {
+            result.set(userId, []);
+        }
+        result.get(userId).push(session);
+    }
+    return result;
+}
+function getMetricValue(session, metric) {
+    switch (metric) {
+        case 'lcp': return session.lcp_ms;
+        case 'inp': return session.inp_ms;
+        case 'cls': return session.cls;
+        case 'fcp': return session.fcp_ms;
+        case 'ttfb': return session.ttfb_ms;
+        default: return null;
+    }
+}
+function getCohortDefinitions(metric) {
+    const thresholds = {
+        lcp: { good: 2500, poor: 4000 },
+        inp: { good: 200, poor: 500 },
+        cls: { good: 0.1, poor: 0.25 },
+        fcp: { good: 1800, poor: 3000 },
+        ttfb: { good: 800, poor: 1800 },
+    };
+    const t = thresholds[metric] || thresholds.lcp;
+    return [
+        { id: 'good', description: `Good ${metric.toUpperCase()}`, min: 0, max: t.good },
+        { id: 'needs_improvement', description: `Needs Improvement ${metric.toUpperCase()}`, min: t.good, max: t.poor },
+        { id: 'poor', description: `Poor ${metric.toUpperCase()}`, min: t.poor, max: Infinity },
+    ];
+}
+function getWeekId(date) {
+    const year = date.getFullYear();
+    const startOfYear = new Date(year, 0, 1);
+    const days = Math.floor((date.getTime() - startOfYear.getTime()) / (24 * 60 * 60 * 1000));
+    const week = Math.ceil((days + 1) / 7);
+    return `${year}-W${week.toString().padStart(2, '0')}`;
+}
+function getWeekDiff(week1, week2) {
+    const [year1, w1] = week1.split('-W').map(Number);
+    const [year2, w2] = week2.split('-W').map(Number);
+    return (year2 - year1) * 52 + (w2 - w1);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=cohort.js.map

package/dist/empirical/cohort.js.map

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package/dist/empirical/conversion-curve.d.ts

@@ -29,8 +29,8 @@ export interface ConversionBucket {
     confidence: 'high' | 'medium' | 'low';
 }
 export interface ConversionCurve {
-    /** The metric being measured (lcp, inp, cls) */
-    metric: 'lcp' | 'inp' | 'cls';
+    /** The metric being measured */
+    metric: PerformanceMetric;
     /** Buckets from fastest to slowest */
     buckets: ConversionBucket[];
     /** Summary statistics */
@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@ export interface ConversionCurve {
         /** Relative CVR drop from fast to slow (e.g., 0.35 = 35% lower) */
         relative_cvr_drop: number;
     };
-    /** Core Web Vitals thresholds for reference */
+    /** Performance thresholds for reference */
     thresholds: {
         good: number;
         needs_improvement: number;
@@ -59,21 +59,18 @@ export interface CurveBuilderConfig {
     /** Minimum sessions per bucket for medium confidence. Default: 30 */
     minSessionsMediumConfidence?: number;
 }
+export type PerformanceMetric = 'lcp' | 'fcp' | 'inp' | 'cls' | 'ttfb' | 'tti' | 'onload' | 'page_size';
 /**
  * Build an empirical conversion curve from session data.
  *
  * This is the key function: it takes raw session data and produces
  * a measured CVR at each performance bucket.
  */
-export declare function buildConversionCurve(sessions: SessionData[], metric: 'lcp' | 'inp' | 'cls', config?: CurveBuilderConfig): ConversionCurve;
+export declare function buildConversionCurve(sessions: SessionData[], metric: PerformanceMetric, config?: CurveBuilderConfig): ConversionCurve;
 /**
- * Build curves for all CWV metrics at once.
+ * Build curves for all performance metrics at once.
  */
-export declare function buildAllCurves(sessions: SessionData[], config?: CurveBuilderConfig): {
-    lcp: ConversionCurve;
-    inp: ConversionCurve;
-    cls: ConversionCurve;
-};
+export declare function buildAllCurves(sessions: SessionData[], config?: CurveBuilderConfig): Record<PerformanceMetric, ConversionCurve>;
 /**
  * Build curves segmented by device or page type.
  */

package/dist/empirical/conversion-curve.d.ts.map

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package/dist/empirical/conversion-curve.js

@@ -10,10 +10,15 @@
 // =============================================================================
 // CWV THRESHOLDS
 // =============================================================================
-const CWV_THRESHOLDS = {
+const PERF_THRESHOLDS = {
     lcp: { good: 2500, needsImprovement: 4000 },
+    fcp: { good: 1800, needsImprovement: 3000 },
     inp: { good: 200, needsImprovement: 500 },
     cls: { good: 0.1, needsImprovement: 0.25 },
+    ttfb: { good: 800, needsImprovement: 1800 },
+    tti: { good: 3800, needsImprovement: 7300 },
+    onload: { good: 3000, needsImprovement: 6000 },
+    page_size: { good: 3000, needsImprovement: 6000 }, // KB - 3MB good, 6MB needs improvement
 };
 // =============================================================================
 // CURVE BUILDER
@@ -107,19 +112,24 @@ export function buildConversionCurve(sessions, metric, config = {}) {
             relative_cvr_drop: relativeCvrDrop,
         },
         thresholds: {
-            good: CWV_THRESHOLDS[metric].good,
-            needs_improvement: CWV_THRESHOLDS[metric].needsImprovement,
+            good: PERF_THRESHOLDS[metric].good,
+            needs_improvement: PERF_THRESHOLDS[metric].needsImprovement,
         },
     };
 }
 /**
- * Build curves for all CWV metrics at once.
+ * Build curves for all performance metrics at once.
  */
 export function buildAllCurves(sessions, config = {}) {
     return {
         lcp: buildConversionCurve(sessions, 'lcp', config),
+        fcp: buildConversionCurve(sessions, 'fcp', config),
         inp: buildConversionCurve(sessions, 'inp', config),
         cls: buildConversionCurve(sessions, 'cls', config),
+        ttfb: buildConversionCurve(sessions, 'ttfb', config),
+        tti: buildConversionCurve(sessions, 'tti', config),
+        onload: buildConversionCurve(sessions, 'onload', config),
+        page_size: buildConversionCurve(sessions, 'page_size', config),
     };
 }
 /**
@@ -200,10 +210,20 @@ function getMetricExtractor(metric) {
     switch (metric) {
         case 'lcp':
             return (s) => s.lcp_ms;
+        case 'fcp':
+            return (s) => s.fcp_ms;
         case 'inp':
             return (s) => s.inp_ms;
         case 'cls':
             return (s) => (s.cls !== null ? s.cls * 1000 : null); // Scale CLS to ms-like for bucketing
+        case 'ttfb':
+            return (s) => s.ttfb_ms;
+        case 'tti':
+            return (s) => s.tti_ms;
+        case 'onload':
+            return (s) => s.onload_ms;
+        case 'page_size':
+            return (s) => s.page_size_kb;
     }
 }
 function getDefaultBoundaries(metric) {
@@ -211,11 +231,24 @@ function getDefaultBoundaries(metric) {
         case 'lcp':
             // CWV thresholds + finer granularity
             return [1000, 1500, 2000, 2500, 3000, 3500, 4000, 5000, 6000];
+        case 'fcp':
+            // FCP thresholds (good < 1.8s, needs improvement < 3s)
+            return [500, 1000, 1500, 1800, 2200, 2600, 3000, 4000];
         case 'inp':
             return [50, 100, 150, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750];
         case 'cls':
             // CLS scaled by 1000 (so 0.1 = 100, 0.25 = 250)
             return [25, 50, 75, 100, 150, 200, 250, 350];
+        case 'ttfb':
+            return [200, 400, 600, 800, 1000, 1500, 2000, 3000];
+        case 'tti':
+            // TTI thresholds (good < 3.8s, needs improvement < 7.3s)
+            return [2000, 3000, 3800, 5000, 6000, 7300, 9000, 12000];
+        case 'onload':
+            return [1500, 2000, 2500, 3000, 4000, 5000, 6000, 8000];
+        case 'page_size':
+            // Page size in KB (up to 10MB+)
+            return [1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, 6000, 8000, 10000];
     }
 }
 function findBucket(value, boundaries) {

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package/dist/empirical/correlation.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+/**
+ * Correlation Analysis
+ *
+ * Analyzes correlations between performance metrics and conversions:
+ * - Point-biserial correlation (continuous metric vs binary conversion)
+ * - Inter-metric correlations (how metrics relate to each other)
+ * - Feature importance ranking
+ *
+ * @author Kanmi Obasa <i@kanmiobasa.com>
+ */
+import type { SessionData } from './datadog-session-query.js';
+import type { PerformanceMetric } from './conversion-curve.js';
+export interface CorrelationResult {
+    /** Metric being correlated */
+    metric: string;
+    /** Correlation coefficient (-1 to 1) */
+    correlation: number;
+    /** P-value for significance test */
+    p_value: number;
+    /** Is the correlation significant? */
+    is_significant: boolean;
+    /** Direction of correlation */
+    direction: 'positive' | 'negative' | 'none';
+    /** Interpretation */
+    interpretation: string;
+}
+export interface CorrelationMatrix {
+    /** Row/column labels */
+    metrics: string[];
+    /** Correlation values (metrics.length x metrics.length) */
+    values: number[][];
+}
+export interface MetricImportance {
+    /** Metric name */
+    metric: string;
+    /** Importance score (0-1) based on correlation with conversion */
+    importance: number;
+    /** Rank (1 = most important) */
+    rank: number;
+    /** Direction of impact */
+    direction: 'negative' | 'positive';
+    /** Insight */
+    insight: string;
+}
+export interface CorrelationReport {
+    /** Correlations with conversion outcome */
+    conversion_correlations: CorrelationResult[];
+    /** Inter-metric correlation matrix */
+    metric_correlations: CorrelationMatrix;
+    /** Metrics ranked by importance */
+    importance_ranking: MetricImportance[];
+    /** Summary insights */
+    summary: {
+        most_impactful_metric: string;
+        strongest_correlation: number;
+        key_insight: string;
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate point-biserial correlation between a continuous variable and binary outcome.
+ * Used for metric-conversion correlations.
+ */
+export declare function pointBiserialCorrelation(continuousValues: number[], binaryOutcomes: boolean[]): {
+    correlation: number;
+    pValue: number;
+};
+/**
+ * Calculate Pearson correlation between two continuous variables.
+ */
+export declare function pearsonCorrelation(x: number[], y: number[]): number;
+/**
+ * Calculate correlations between a metric and conversion outcome.
+ */
+export declare function calculateMetricConversionCorrelation(sessions: SessionData[], metric: PerformanceMetric, eventName?: string): CorrelationResult;
+/**
+ * Calculate correlation matrix between all metrics.
+ */
+export declare function calculateMetricCorrelationMatrix(sessions: SessionData[]): CorrelationMatrix;
+/**
+ * Calculate metric importance ranking based on correlation with conversions.
+ */
+export declare function calculateMetricImportance(sessions: SessionData[], eventName?: string): MetricImportance[];
+/**
+ * Generate a complete correlation report.
+ */
+export declare function generateCorrelationReport(sessions: SessionData[], eventName?: string): CorrelationReport;
+/**
+ * Generate markdown report for correlation analysis.
+ */
+export declare function generateCorrelationMarkdown(report: CorrelationReport): string;
+//# sourceMappingURL=correlation.d.ts.map

package/dist/empirical/correlation.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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