instar 1.3.450 → 1.3.451

package/dist/monitoring/GrowthMilestoneAnalyst.js

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+// GrowthMilestoneAnalyst — the proactive "growth & milestone" analyst.
+//
+// WHY THIS EXISTS (grounded requirement, Justin 2026-06-06, topic 21624):
+// Instar built excellent *sensors* (InitiativeTracker, FeatureRolloutReconciler,
+// ApprovalLedger, CorrectionLedger) and excellent *anti-flood plumbing* — but
+// never the *analyst layer* in between that reads the tracked data, decides what
+// crosses from noise into "a concrete milestone or realization worth telling the
+// operator," and proactively surfaces it. The result was total silence on the
+// three questions the operator actually asked:
+//   1. Are initiatives being left behind?
+//   2. Are features earning their way through the maturity path (dark → enabled)?
+//   3. Are patterns being extracted from conversation data (approve-vs-change-spec
+//      rate, correction rate)?
+//
+// THE KEY DESIGN LEVER (Justin, same conversation): the incubation/maturation
+// window must stay TIGHT — a week MAX, a few days for low-risk features — and
+// **the window EXPIRING is the trigger itself**. "Left behind" becomes
+// structurally impossible because every incubating feature carries a deadline
+// that drags it in front of the operator: either it proved itself (→ promote?)
+// or it never did (→ extend / fix / kill?).
+//
+// MATURITY HONESTY (ref keystone-dormancy #905): promotion requires real
+// proof-of-life (the feature actually fired), NOT merely elapsed time. A feature
+// that sat dark and never ran is a *kill/fix* candidate, never a *promote* one.
+//
+// THIS COMPONENT ADDS NO NEW SENSORS. It composes the existing read surfaces and
+// keeps ONE piece of minimal internal bookkeeping: a stage-observation journal,
+// because the rollout engines do not cleanly stamp "entered stage X at time T"
+// for every stage (notably `dark`). The journal records the first time we
+// observed a feature in its current stage so "days in stage" is robust.
+//
+// Spec: docs/specs/PROACTIVE-GROWTH-MILESTONE-ANALYST-SPEC.md
+// Ships DARK (monitoring.growthAnalyst.enabled defaults false). This slice
+// COMPUTES findings + exposes them via read routes; it does NOT send to Telegram.
+// Sending / cadence / enabling the muted analyzers ride later slices, behind
+// their own review (they are the flood-sensitive part).
+import fs from 'node:fs';
+import path from 'node:path';
+export const DEFAULT_GROWTH_WINDOWS = {
+    lowRisk: 3,
+    standard: 7,
+    highRisk: 7,
+};
+export const DEFAULT_GROWTH_SETTINGS = {
+    enabled: false,
+    incubationWindows: { ...DEFAULT_GROWTH_WINDOWS },
+    proofOfLifeMinActivations: 1,
+    rules: {
+        promotionReady: true,
+        incubationExpired: true,
+        initiativeStalling: true,
+        specPattern: true,
+        correctionPattern: true,
+    },
+    specPatternMinTotal: 3,
+    specPatternMinChangeRatio: 0.6,
+    correctionPatternMinOccurrences: 3,
+    digestEvenWhenCalm: true,
+};
+/** Resolve raw config (possibly partial / undefined) into fully-defaulted
+ *  settings. Pure — safe to unit test, and used by both the class and routes. */
+export function resolveGrowthSettings(raw) {
+    const r = (raw ?? {});
+    const windows = (r.incubationWindows ?? {});
+    const rules = (r.rules ?? {});
+    return {
+        enabled: r.enabled === true,
+        incubationWindows: {
+            lowRisk: numOr(windows.lowRisk, DEFAULT_GROWTH_WINDOWS.lowRisk),
+            standard: numOr(windows.standard, DEFAULT_GROWTH_WINDOWS.standard),
+            highRisk: numOr(windows.highRisk, DEFAULT_GROWTH_WINDOWS.highRisk),
+        },
+        proofOfLifeMinActivations: numOr(r.proofOfLifeMinActivations, DEFAULT_GROWTH_SETTINGS.proofOfLifeMinActivations),
+        rules: {
+            promotionReady: rules.promotionReady !== false,
+            incubationExpired: rules.incubationExpired !== false,
+            initiativeStalling: rules.initiativeStalling !== false,
+            specPattern: rules.specPattern !== false,
+            correctionPattern: rules.correctionPattern !== false,
+        },
+        specPatternMinTotal: numOr(r.specPatternMinTotal, DEFAULT_GROWTH_SETTINGS.specPatternMinTotal),
+        specPatternMinChangeRatio: numOr(r.specPatternMinChangeRatio, DEFAULT_GROWTH_SETTINGS.specPatternMinChangeRatio),
+        correctionPatternMinOccurrences: numOr(r.correctionPatternMinOccurrences, DEFAULT_GROWTH_SETTINGS.correctionPatternMinOccurrences),
+        digestEvenWhenCalm: r.digestEvenWhenCalm !== false,
+    };
+}
+function numOr(v, fallback) {
+    return typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : fallback;
+}
+/** Whole calendar-ish days between an ISO timestamp and `now` (fractional). */
+export function daysSince(iso, now) {
+    const then = new Date(iso).getTime();
+    if (!Number.isFinite(then))
+        return 0;
+    return (now.getTime() - then) / 86_400_000;
+}
+/** Map a feature to a risk tier. Heuristic for now (overridable later via an
+ *  explicit per-feature tag). default-on/live features that already shipped are
+ *  treated 'standard'; everything dark is 'standard' unless flagged lowRisk. */
+export function riskTierForInitiative(init) {
+    // An explicit tag on the rollout's promotionCriteria wins if present.
+    const crit = init.rollout?.promotionCriteria?.toLowerCase() ?? '';
+    if (crit.includes('low-risk') || crit.includes('lowrisk'))
+        return 'lowRisk';
+    if (crit.includes('high-risk') || crit.includes('highrisk'))
+        return 'highRisk';
+    return 'standard';
+}
+/** The core verdict. PURE. `proofCount === undefined` ⇒ no evidence source wired
+ *  ⇒ proved:'unknown' ⇒ cannot be promotion-ready (honest: never promote a
+ *  feature we can't prove ran). */
+export function classifyRollout(stage, daysInStage, windowDays, proofCount, minProof) {
+    const proved = proofCount === undefined ? 'unknown' : proofCount >= minProof;
+    if (stage === 'default-on') {
+        return { classification: 'terminal', stage, daysInStage, windowDays, proved };
+    }
+    const expired = daysInStage >= windowDays;
+    if (!expired) {
+        return { classification: 'incubating', stage, daysInStage, windowDays, proved };
+    }
+    if (proved === true) {
+        return { classification: 'promotion-ready', stage, daysInStage, windowDays, proved };
+    }
+    return { classification: 'expired-unproven', stage, daysInStage, windowDays, proved };
+}
+export class GrowthMilestoneAnalyst {
+    stateDir;
+    journalPath;
+    deps;
+    settings;
+    constructor(deps) {
+        this.deps = deps;
+        this.settings = deps.settings;
+        this.stateDir = path.join(deps.stateDir, 'state', 'growth-milestone-analyst');
+        this.journalPath = path.join(this.stateDir, 'stage-journal.json');
+        try {
+            fs.mkdirSync(this.stateDir, { recursive: true });
+        }
+        catch (err) {
+            this.deps.onError?.('mkdir', err);
+        }
+    }
+    now() {
+        return this.deps.now ? this.deps.now() : new Date();
+    }
+    isEnabled() {
+        return this.settings.enabled === true;
+    }
+    // ── Stage journal persistence ──────────────────────────────────────────
+    loadJournal() {
+        try {
+            const raw = fs.readFileSync(this.journalPath, 'utf-8');
+            const parsed = JSON.parse(raw);
+            return parsed && typeof parsed === 'object' ? parsed : {};
+        }
+        catch {
+            // @silent-fallback-ok: a missing/corrupt journal → empty, then self-heals
+            // on the next observeStages write. Observe-only analyst — never gates an
+            // action, so an empty journal only means "recompute stage clocks", not a
+            // wrong decision. (No DegradationReporter: this is expected first-run state.)
+            return {};
+        }
+    }
+    saveJournal(j) {
+        try {
+            fs.writeFileSync(this.journalPath, JSON.stringify(j, null, 2));
+        }
+        catch (err) {
+            this.deps.onError?.('saveJournal', err);
+        }
+    }
+    /**
+     * Observe the current rollout stage of every staged feature and reconcile the
+     * journal: new feature → record; stage changed → reset firstObservedAt; gone →
+     * prune. Returns the updated journal (also persisted). PUBLIC so a tick can run
+     * the observation step independently of finding computation.
+     */
+    observeStages(now = this.now()) {
+        const journal = this.loadJournal();
+        const live = new Set();
+        for (const init of this.stagedInitiatives()) {
+            const stage = init.rollout.stage;
+            live.add(init.id);
+            const prev = journal[init.id];
+            if (!prev || prev.stage !== stage) {
+                journal[init.id] = { stage, firstObservedAt: now.toISOString() };
+            }
+        }
+        // Prune features no longer staged (deleted / archived away from rollout).
+        for (const id of Object.keys(journal)) {
+            if (!live.has(id))
+                delete journal[id];
+        }
+        this.saveJournal(journal);
+        return journal;
+    }
+    stagedInitiatives() {
+        let list;
+        try {
+            list = this.deps.tracker.list();
+        }
+        catch (err) {
+            // @silent-fallback-ok: input-read failure surfaced via onError; returning
+            // [] yields a smaller digest (the safe direction) for this observe-only,
+            // never-acting component — it can never cause a wrong action.
+            this.deps.onError?.('tracker.list', err);
+            return [];
+        }
+        return list.filter((i) => i.rollout && i.rollout.stage);
+    }
+    // ── Notify-rule computation ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+    /** R1 + R2: feature maturity via the tight incubation window. */
+    computeRolloutFindings(now, journal) {
+        const findings = [];
+        const s = this.settings;
+        for (const init of this.stagedInitiatives()) {
+            const obs = journal[init.id];
+            if (!obs)
+                continue; // observeStages must run first
+            const tier = riskTierForInitiative(init);
+            const windowDays = s.incubationWindows[tier];
+            const daysInStage = daysSince(obs.firstObservedAt, now);
+            let proofCount;
+            try {
+                proofCount = this.deps.evidenceCounter?.(init);
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                // @silent-fallback-ok: surfaced via onError; undefined → proved:'unknown',
+                // the HONEST conservative result (a feature we can't prove ran can never
+                // be promotion-ready). Never a wrong action — observe-only.
+                this.deps.onError?.('evidenceCounter', err);
+                proofCount = undefined;
+            }
+            const v = classifyRollout(init.rollout.stage, daysInStage, windowDays, proofCount, s.proofOfLifeMinActivations);
+            const rounded = Math.round(daysInStage * 10) / 10;
+            if (v.classification === 'promotion-ready' && s.rules.promotionReady) {
+                findings.push({
+                    rule: 'R1',
+                    priority: 'normal',
+                    subjectId: init.id,
+                    title: `${init.title} — ready to promote`,
+                    detail: `Incubated ${rounded}d in '${v.stage}' (window ${windowDays}d) with ${proofCount} real activation(s) and no issues. Promote to the next stage?`,
+                    suggestedAction: 'promote',
+                    stage: v.stage,
+                    daysInStage: rounded,
+                    windowDays,
+                    proved: v.proved,
+                });
+            }
+            else if (v.classification === 'expired-unproven' && s.rules.incubationExpired) {
+                const provedNote = v.proved === 'unknown'
+                    ? 'no evidence source is wired, so it cannot prove it ran'
+                    : `it has not reached ${s.proofOfLifeMinActivations} activation(s)`;
+                findings.push({
+                    rule: 'R2',
+                    priority: 'normal',
+                    subjectId: init.id,
+                    title: `${init.title} — incubation expired, unproven`,
+                    detail: `Sat in '${v.stage}' ${rounded}d (window ${windowDays}d) but ${provedNote}. Extend, fix, or kill?`,
+                    suggestedAction: 'extend-fix-kill',
+                    stage: v.stage,
+                    daysInStage: rounded,
+                    windowDays,
+                    proved: v.proved,
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        return findings;
+    }
+    /** R3: initiatives left behind — reuse the tracker's own staleness digest. */
+    computeStallingFindings(now) {
+        if (!this.settings.rules.initiativeStalling)
+            return [];
+        let items;
+        try {
+            items = this.deps.tracker.digest(now).items;
+        }
+        catch (err) {
+            // @silent-fallback-ok: input-read failure surfaced via onError; [] yields a
+            // smaller digest (safe direction) for this observe-only component.
+            this.deps.onError?.('tracker.digest', err);
+            return [];
+        }
+        const findings = [];
+        for (const it of items) {
+            if (it.reason !== 'stale' && it.reason !== 'needs-user')
+                continue;
+            findings.push({
+                rule: 'R3',
+                priority: 'normal',
+                subjectId: it.initiativeId,
+                title: `${it.title} — ${it.reason === 'needs-user' ? 'waiting on you' : 'drifting'}`,
+                detail: it.detail || (it.reason === 'needs-user' ? 'An open decision is waiting on you.' : 'No update in a while.'),
+                suggestedAction: 'review',
+            });
+        }
+        return findings;
+    }
+    /** R4: spec approve-vs-change pattern — "you keep changing X the same way." */
+    computeSpecPatternFindings() {
+        if (!this.settings.rules.specPattern || !this.deps.approvalLedger)
+            return [];
+        let summaries;
+        try {
+            summaries = this.deps.approvalLedger.summarize();
+        }
+        catch (err) {
+            // @silent-fallback-ok: input-read failure surfaced via onError; [] yields a
+            // smaller digest (safe direction) for this observe-only component.
+            this.deps.onError?.('approvalLedger.summarize', err);
+            return [];
+        }
+        const s = this.settings;
+        const findings = [];
+        for (const cs of summaries) {
+            if (cs.total < s.specPatternMinTotal)
+                continue;
+            const changeRatio = cs.total > 0 ? cs.approvedWithChange / cs.total : 0;
+            if (changeRatio < s.specPatternMinChangeRatio)
+                continue;
+            const dominant = dominantDivergence(cs.divergenceCounts);
+            if (!dominant)
+                continue;
+            findings.push({
+                rule: 'R4',
+                priority: 'low',
+                subjectId: cs.decisionClass,
+                title: `Spec pattern: '${cs.decisionClass}' keeps getting changed`,
+                detail: `${cs.approvedWithChange}/${cs.total} '${cs.decisionClass}' decisions were approved-with-change, mostly '${dominant.category}' (${dominant.count}). Bake this into the default?`,
+                suggestedAction: 'bake-in-default',
+            });
+        }
+        return findings;
+    }
+    /** R5: correction pattern — a recurring correction worth surfacing. The
+     *  CORRECTION-PREFERENCE spec owns the routing; this only SURFACES it. */
+    computeCorrectionFindings(now) {
+        if (!this.settings.rules.correctionPattern || !this.deps.correctionLedger)
+            return [];
+        let records;
+        try {
+            records = this.deps.correctionLedger.list({});
+        }
+        catch (err) {
+            // @silent-fallback-ok: input-read failure surfaced via onError; [] yields a
+            // smaller digest (safe direction) for this observe-only component.
+            this.deps.onError?.('correctionLedger.list', err);
+            return [];
+        }
+        const min = this.settings.correctionPatternMinOccurrences;
+        const findings = [];
+        for (const r of records) {
+            // Only surface still-open recurring patterns (acted-on/verified are owned
+            // by the correction loop's own lifecycle).
+            if (r.status !== 'open' && r.status !== 'reopened')
+                continue;
+            if (r.occurrenceCount < min)
+                continue;
+            findings.push({
+                rule: 'R5',
+                priority: 'low',
+                subjectId: r.dedupeKey,
+                title: `Recurring correction (${r.occurrenceCount}×)`,
+                // scrubbedSummary is the only HTTP-safe text on a correction record.
+                detail: `${r.scrubbedSummary} — recurred ${r.occurrenceCount}×. Worth a durable preference or infra fix?`,
+                suggestedAction: 'route-correction',
+            });
+        }
+        return findings;
+    }
+    /** Run the full observation + computation pass. Returns all findings. */
+    computeFindings(now = this.now()) {
+        const journal = this.observeStages(now);
+        return [
+            ...this.computeRolloutFindings(now, journal),
+            ...this.computeStallingFindings(now),
+            ...this.computeSpecPatternFindings(),
+            ...this.computeCorrectionFindings(now),
+        ];
+    }
+    /** Build the operator-facing digest. Calm digests still render so the operator
+     *  knows the analyst ran (fixes the old "near-silent → never speaks" failure). */
+    buildDigest(now = this.now()) {
+        const journal = this.observeStages(now);
+        const rollout = this.computeRolloutFindings(now, journal);
+        const stalling = this.computeStallingFindings(now);
+        const spec = this.computeSpecPatternFindings();
+        const corr = this.computeCorrectionFindings(now);
+        const findings = [...rollout, ...stalling, ...spec, ...corr];
+        const counts = {
+            incubating: this.countIncubating(now, journal),
+            promotionReady: rollout.filter((f) => f.rule === 'R1').length,
+            expiredUnproven: rollout.filter((f) => f.rule === 'R2').length,
+            stalling: stalling.length,
+            specPatterns: spec.length,
+            correctionPatterns: corr.length,
+        };
+        const nextWindowClosesInDays = this.nextWindowClose(now, journal);
+        const calm = findings.length === 0;
+        const summary = calm
+            ? this.calmSummary(counts, nextWindowClosesInDays)
+            : this.activeSummary(counts);
+        return {
+            generatedAt: now.toISOString(),
+            calm,
+            summary,
+            findings,
+            counts,
+            nextWindowClosesInDays,
+        };
+    }
+    /** Lightweight status for a GET route / dashboard. */
+    getStatus(now = this.now()) {
+        const digest = this.buildDigest(now);
+        return {
+            enabled: this.isEnabled(),
+            settings: this.settings,
+            counts: digest.counts,
+            nextWindowClosesInDays: digest.nextWindowClosesInDays,
+        };
+    }
+    // ── digest helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    countIncubating(now, journal) {
+        let n = 0;
+        for (const init of this.stagedInitiatives()) {
+            const obs = journal[init.id];
+            if (!obs)
+                continue;
+            const tier = riskTierForInitiative(init);
+            const windowDays = this.settings.incubationWindows[tier];
+            const v = classifyRollout(init.rollout.stage, daysSince(obs.firstObservedAt, now), windowDays, this.safeProof(init), this.settings.proofOfLifeMinActivations);
+            if (v.classification === 'incubating')
+                n++;
+        }
+        return n;
+    }
+    nextWindowClose(now, journal) {
+        let soonest;
+        for (const init of this.stagedInitiatives()) {
+            const obs = journal[init.id];
+            if (!obs)
+                continue;
+            const tier = riskTierForInitiative(init);
+            const windowDays = this.settings.incubationWindows[tier];
+            const daysInStage = daysSince(obs.firstObservedAt, now);
+            if (init.rollout.stage === 'default-on')
+                continue;
+            if (daysInStage >= windowDays)
+                continue; // already expired
+            const remaining = windowDays - daysInStage;
+            if (soonest === undefined || remaining < soonest)
+                soonest = remaining;
+        }
+        return soonest === undefined ? undefined : Math.round(soonest * 10) / 10;
+    }
+    safeProof(init) {
+        try {
+            return this.deps.evidenceCounter?.(init);
+        }
+        catch {
+            // @silent-fallback-ok: count-only helper for the calm-digest incubating
+            // tally; undefined → proved:'unknown' (the honest conservative result).
+            // Observe-only — never gates an action.
+            return undefined;
+        }
+    }
+    calmSummary(counts, nextClose) {
+        const base = `All healthy — ${counts.incubating} feature(s) incubating, nothing past its window.`;
+        if (nextClose !== undefined)
+            return `${base} Next window closes in ${nextClose}d.`;
+        return base;
+    }
+    activeSummary(counts) {
+        const parts = [];
+        if (counts.promotionReady)
+            parts.push(`${counts.promotionReady} ready to promote`);
+        if (counts.expiredUnproven)
+            parts.push(`${counts.expiredUnproven} expired-unproven`);
+        if (counts.stalling)
+            parts.push(`${counts.stalling} stalling`);
+        if (counts.specPatterns)
+            parts.push(`${counts.specPatterns} spec pattern(s)`);
+        if (counts.correctionPatterns)
+            parts.push(`${counts.correctionPatterns} correction pattern(s)`);
+        return `Growth digest: ${parts.join(', ')}.`;
+    }
+}
+/** The divergence category with the highest count (ties → first by declaration),
+ *  or null when there are no divergences at all. PURE. */
+export function dominantDivergence(counts) {
+    let best = null;
+    for (const [category, count] of Object.entries(counts)) {
+        if (count <= 0)
+            continue;
+        if (!best || count > best.count)
+            best = { category, count };
+    }
+    return best;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=GrowthMilestoneAnalyst.js.map

package/dist/monitoring/GrowthMilestoneAnalyst.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/permissions/AmbientContributionGate.d.ts

@@ -54,6 +54,65 @@ export interface AmbientDecision {
     /** Optional human-readable detail (e.g. the LLM's named contribution). */
     detail?: string;
 }
+/**
+ * Observability — a bounded, in-memory record of a SINGLE silence the gate is
+ * about to return. Used only to populate the near-miss ring; never affects the
+ * decision. No message text is stored — just the channel, reason, and how close
+ * the (clamped) confidence was to the threshold.
+ */
+export interface AmbientSilenceSample {
+    /** The Slack channel the silence occurred in. */
+    channelId: string;
+    /** Why the gate stayed silent. */
+    reason: AmbientDecisionReason;
+    /**
+     * The LLM's clamped confidence for this evaluation, when one was produced
+     * (only the LLM paths carry it; the channel-not-opted-in / rate-limited /
+     * no-intelligence / llm-error / llm-unparseable paths leave it undefined).
+     */
+    confidence?: number;
+    /** Whether this silence was within `nearMissDelta` below the speak threshold. */
+    nearMiss: boolean;
+    /** When the sample was taken (gate clock). */
+    at: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Per-channel ambient observability counters + a bounded ring of recent near-miss
+ * silences. Pure aggregate — NO message content, NO per-event Telegram/topic
+ * side-effect (so it can never flood). This is the read surface the observe-only
+ * live test polls to measure the ambient gate's false-positive (wrongful-silence)
+ * and false-negative (wrongful-speak) rates. Signal-only: reading or computing it
+ * NEVER changes the speak/silence verdict.
+ */
+export interface AmbientChannelStats {
+    channelId: string;
+    /** Every shouldSpeak() call for this channel (spoke + silent). */
+    evaluated: number;
+    /** Decisions that returned speak=true. */
+    spoke: number;
+    /** Decisions that returned speak=false (the FP candidates). */
+    silent: number;
+    /**
+     * Silences where the LLM's confidence was within `nearMissDelta` BELOW the
+     * speak threshold — i.e. it nearly spoke. The highest-signal subset for tuning
+     * the confidence floor.
+     */
+    nearMissSilent: number;
+    /** Per-reason silence breakdown (channel-not-opted-in, rate-limited, …). */
+    silentByReason: Partial<Record<AmbientDecisionReason, number>>;
+}
+export interface AmbientStats {
+    /** Per-channel aggregate counters. */
+    channels: AmbientChannelStats[];
+    /** Bounded ring (most-recent-first) of recent near-miss silences for spot-inspection. */
+    recentNearMisses: AmbientSilenceSample[];
+    /** The near-miss delta in use (confidence within this far below the threshold). */
+    nearMissDelta: number;
+    /** The confidence floor a "speak" verdict must clear. */
+    minConfidence: number;
+    /** Cap on the recentNearMisses ring (bounded — no unbounded growth). */
+    ringCapacity: number;
+}
 export type AmbientDecisionReason = 'channel-not-opted-in' | 'rate-limited' | 'no-intelligence' | 'llm-error' | 'llm-unparseable' | 'llm-declined' | 'low-confidence' | 'speak';
 /** Per-channel ambient configuration. Default: ambient OFF. */
 export interface AmbientChannelConfig {
@@ -72,6 +131,18 @@ export interface AmbientChannelConfig {
      * this, the gate stays silent even if the LLM said speak. Default: 0.85 (high bar).
      */
     minConfidence?: number;
+    /**
+     * Observability only — a silence whose confidence lands within this far BELOW
+     * `minConfidence` is flagged a "near-miss" (it nearly spoke). Default: 0.1. Has
+     * NO effect on the verdict; it only classifies silences for the stats surface.
+     */
+    nearMissDelta?: number;
+    /**
+     * Observability only — cap on the in-memory ring of recent near-miss silence
+     * samples kept for spot-inspection. Bounded so the gate can never grow unbounded.
+     * Default: 50.
+     */
+    nearMissRingCapacity?: number;
 }
 export interface AmbientContributionGateDeps {
     /** Per-channel ambient configuration. Absent/empty ⇒ ambient OFF everywhere. */
@@ -110,6 +181,20 @@ export declare class AmbientContributionGate {
     private readonly timeoutMs;
     private readonly onDecision?;
     private readonly now;
+    private readonly nearMissDelta;
+    private readonly nearMissRingCapacity;
+    /**
+     * Observability — bounded, in-memory aggregate of every decision, per channel.
+     * Populated in recordDecisionStats() (called from decide() AFTER the verdict is
+     * formed), so it can never change the verdict. No message content is stored. A
+     * restart resets it; this is acceptable for an FP-rate measurement surface (the
+     * durable per-decision ledger is the file-backed /permissions/decisions). The map
+     * is keyed by channelId — bounded by the set of opted-in channels, which is small
+     * and config-controlled.
+     */
+    private readonly channelStats;
+    /** Bounded ring (newest-last) of recent near-miss silences for spot-inspection. */
+    private readonly nearMissRing;
     /**
      * Rate-limit state lives HERE — a per-channel in-memory ring of the timestamps at
      * which the gate last returned speak=true. It is recorded by recordSpoke() (called
@@ -145,5 +230,20 @@ export declare class AmbientContributionGate {
     /** Count of proactive sends within the rolling window; prunes expired entries. */
     private recentCount;
     private decide;
+    /**
+     * Update the per-channel counters and (for a near-miss silence) the bounded ring.
+     * A SILENCE is a "near-miss" when the LLM produced a confidence that fell within
+     * `nearMissDelta` BELOW the speak threshold — i.e. it nearly spoke. Paths with no
+     * confidence (not-opted-in, rate-limited, no-intelligence, llm-error, unparseable)
+     * are never near-misses. Pure in-memory; no content stored; no side-effect.
+     */
+    private recordDecisionStats;
+    /**
+     * Read-only snapshot of the bounded observability aggregate. Safe to call any time
+     * (returns copies — the caller can't mutate internal state). With no opted-in
+     * channel the gate is never consulted, so `channels` stays empty and nothing is
+     * recorded. This is the surface the observe-only live test polls.
+     */
+    getStats(): AmbientStats;
 }
 //# sourceMappingURL=AmbientContributionGate.d.ts.map