hivemind-pipeline 0.1.0

package/dist/src/core/decision-journal.js

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+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, existsSync, mkdirSync, appendFileSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { join } from 'node:path';
+function ensureJournalDir(swarmDir) {
+    const journalDir = join(swarmDir, 'journal');
+    if (!existsSync(journalDir)) {
+        mkdirSync(journalDir, { recursive: true });
+    }
+    return journalDir;
+}
+function decisionsPath(swarmDir) {
+    return join(ensureJournalDir(swarmDir), 'decisions.jsonl');
+}
+function rulesPath(swarmDir) {
+    return join(ensureJournalDir(swarmDir), 'rules.json');
+}
+function readAllDecisions(swarmDir) {
+    const filePath = decisionsPath(swarmDir);
+    if (!existsSync(filePath))
+        return [];
+    try {
+        const raw = readFileSync(filePath, 'utf-8');
+        return raw
+            .split('\n')
+            .filter(Boolean)
+            .map(line => {
+            try {
+                return JSON.parse(line);
+            }
+            catch {
+                return null;
+            }
+        })
+            .filter(Boolean);
+    }
+    catch {
+        return [];
+    }
+}
+function writeAllDecisions(swarmDir, decisions) {
+    const filePath = decisionsPath(swarmDir);
+    ensureJournalDir(swarmDir);
+    const content = decisions.map(d => JSON.stringify(d)).join('\n') + (decisions.length > 0 ? '\n' : '');
+    writeFileSync(filePath, content);
+}
+export function logDecision(swarmDir, entry) {
+    const id = `dec-${Date.now()}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 8)}`;
+    const decision = {
+        id,
+        timestamp: Date.now(),
+        ...entry,
+    };
+    const filePath = decisionsPath(swarmDir);
+    try {
+        appendFileSync(filePath, JSON.stringify(decision) + '\n');
+    }
+    catch {
+        // Non-critical
+    }
+    return id;
+}
+export function updateOutcome(swarmDir, decisionId, outcome, detail) {
+    const decisions = readAllDecisions(swarmDir);
+    const idx = decisions.findIndex(d => d.id === decisionId);
+    if (idx === -1)
+        return;
+    decisions[idx].outcome = outcome;
+    decisions[idx].outcomeTimestamp = Date.now();
+    if (detail) {
+        decisions[idx].outcomeDetail = detail;
+    }
+    writeAllDecisions(swarmDir, decisions);
+}
+export function getRecentDecisions(swarmDir, limit = 20) {
+    const decisions = readAllDecisions(swarmDir);
+    // Return newest first
+    decisions.sort((a, b) => b.timestamp - a.timestamp);
+    return decisions.slice(0, limit);
+}
+export function runLearningEngine(swarmDir) {
+    const decisions = readAllDecisions(swarmDir);
+    const resolved = decisions.filter(d => d.outcome === 'success' || d.outcome === 'failure');
+    // Compute accuracy per type
+    const byType = new Map();
+    for (const d of resolved) {
+        const entry = byType.get(d.type) || { total: 0, successful: 0 };
+        entry.total++;
+        if (d.outcome === 'success')
+            entry.successful++;
+        byType.set(d.type, entry);
+    }
+    const rules = [];
+    const now = Date.now();
+    for (const [type, stats] of byType) {
+        if (stats.total < 3)
+            continue; // Need enough data
+        const accuracy = stats.successful / stats.total;
+        if (accuracy < 0.8) {
+            // Analyze failures in this type for common patterns
+            const failures = resolved.filter(d => d.type === type && d.outcome === 'failure');
+            const contexts = failures.map(d => d.context).join(' ');
+            let ruleText;
+            if (accuracy < 0.5) {
+                ruleText = `CRITICAL: ${type} decisions have only ${(accuracy * 100).toFixed(0)}% accuracy (${stats.successful}/${stats.total}). Require manual review before proceeding.`;
+            }
+            else {
+                ruleText = `WARNING: ${type} decisions have ${(accuracy * 100).toFixed(0)}% accuracy (${stats.successful}/${stats.total}). Consider additional validation.`;
+            }
+            rules.push({
+                id: `rule-${type}-${now}`,
+                rule: ruleText,
+                source: `learning-engine: analyzed ${stats.total} decisions`,
+                createdAt: now,
+                enabled: true,
+                appliesTo: [type],
+            });
+            // Check if high-confidence failures are common
+            const highConfFailures = failures.filter(d => d.confidence > 0.8);
+            if (highConfFailures.length >= 2) {
+                rules.push({
+                    id: `rule-${type}-overconf-${now}`,
+                    rule: `Overconfidence detected in ${type}: ${highConfFailures.length} high-confidence failures. Lower default confidence threshold.`,
+                    source: `learning-engine: ${highConfFailures.length} failures with >80% confidence`,
+                    createdAt: now,
+                    enabled: true,
+                    appliesTo: [type],
+                });
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    // Save rules
+    const existingRules = getJournalRules(swarmDir);
+    const allRules = [...existingRules, ...rules];
+    const filePath = rulesPath(swarmDir);
+    try {
+        writeFileSync(filePath, JSON.stringify(allRules, null, 2));
+    }
+    catch {
+        // Non-critical
+    }
+    return rules;
+}
+export function runCalibration(swarmDir) {
+    const decisions = readAllDecisions(swarmDir);
+    const resolved = decisions.filter(d => d.outcome === 'success' || d.outcome === 'failure');
+    // Accuracy by type
+    const byType = new Map();
+    for (const d of resolved) {
+        const entry = byType.get(d.type) || { total: 0, successful: 0 };
+        entry.total++;
+        if (d.outcome === 'success')
+            entry.successful++;
+        byType.set(d.type, entry);
+    }
+    const accuracyByType = Array.from(byType.entries()).map(([type, stats]) => ({
+        type,
+        total: stats.total,
+        successful: stats.successful,
+        accuracy: stats.total > 0 ? stats.successful / stats.total : 0,
+    }));
+    // Overconfident: >90% confidence but failed
+    const overconfident = resolved.filter(d => d.confidence > 0.9 && d.outcome === 'failure');
+    // Underconfident: <60% confidence but succeeded
+    const underconfident = resolved.filter(d => d.confidence < 0.6 && d.outcome === 'success');
+    const rules = getJournalRules(swarmDir);
+    // Generate recommendations
+    const recommendations = [];
+    if (overconfident.length > 0) {
+        recommendations.push(`${overconfident.length} decision(s) were overconfident (>90% confidence but failed). Consider lowering confidence thresholds.`);
+    }
+    if (underconfident.length > 0) {
+        recommendations.push(`${underconfident.length} decision(s) were underconfident (<60% confidence but succeeded). These areas may be safer than assumed.`);
+    }
+    const lowAccuracyTypes = accuracyByType.filter(a => a.accuracy < 0.7 && a.total >= 3);
+    for (const t of lowAccuracyTypes) {
+        recommendations.push(`"${t.type}" has ${(t.accuracy * 100).toFixed(0)}% accuracy across ${t.total} decisions. Needs attention.`);
+    }
+    if (resolved.length === 0) {
+        recommendations.push('No decisions with outcomes yet. Update outcomes to enable calibration analysis.');
+    }
+    if (decisions.length > 0 && resolved.length / decisions.length < 0.5) {
+        recommendations.push(`Only ${((resolved.length / decisions.length) * 100).toFixed(0)}% of decisions have outcomes recorded. Track more outcomes for better analysis.`);
+    }
+    return {
+        totalDecisions: decisions.length,
+        accuracyByType,
+        overconfident,
+        underconfident,
+        rules,
+        recommendations,
+    };
+}
+export function getJournalRules(swarmDir) {
+    const filePath = rulesPath(swarmDir);
+    if (!existsSync(filePath))
+        return [];
+    try {
+        const raw = readFileSync(filePath, 'utf-8');
+        return JSON.parse(raw);
+    }
+    catch {
+        return [];
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=decision-journal.js.map

package/dist/src/core/decision-journal.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/src/core/experiment-engine.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+import type { ExperimentDefinition, ExperimentResult, ExperimentState } from '../types.js';
+type Experiment = ExperimentState['experiments'][number];
+export declare class ExperimentEngine {
+    private swarmDir;
+    private state;
+    constructor(swarmDir: string);
+    private filePath;
+    private load;
+    private save;
+    create(def: ExperimentDefinition): Experiment;
+    start(name: string): Experiment;
+    analyze(name: string): ExperimentResult[];
+    ship(name: string): Experiment;
+    kill(name: string): Experiment;
+    getState(): ExperimentState;
+    getExperiment(name: string): Experiment | undefined;
+    getActive(): Experiment[];
+    getHistory(): Experiment[];
+    checkGuardrails(name: string): {
+        status: 'ok' | 'warning' | 'breached';
+        details: string[];
+    };
+    ramp(name: string): Experiment;
+    private runStatisticalAnalysis;
+    private zTest;
+    /** Approximation of the standard normal CDF (Abramowitz & Stegun). */
+    private normalCDF;
+    private findOrThrow;
+}
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=experiment-engine.d.ts.map

package/dist/src/core/experiment-engine.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/src/core/experiment-engine.js

@@ -0,0 +1,248 @@
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, existsSync, mkdirSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { join } from 'node:path';
+import { randomUUID } from 'node:crypto';
+const EXPERIMENTS_FILE = 'experiments.json';
+function emptyState() {
+    return {
+        experiments: [],
+        flagProvider: 'local',
+        totalExperiments: 0,
+        activeCount: 0,
+    };
+}
+export class ExperimentEngine {
+    swarmDir;
+    state;
+    constructor(swarmDir) {
+        this.swarmDir = swarmDir;
+        this.state = this.load();
+    }
+    // ─── Persistence ────────────────────────────────────────────
+    filePath() {
+        return join(this.swarmDir, EXPERIMENTS_FILE);
+    }
+    load() {
+        const fp = this.filePath();
+        if (!existsSync(fp))
+            return emptyState();
+        try {
+            const raw = readFileSync(fp, 'utf-8');
+            return JSON.parse(raw);
+        }
+        catch {
+            return emptyState();
+        }
+    }
+    save() {
+        if (!existsSync(this.swarmDir)) {
+            mkdirSync(this.swarmDir, { recursive: true });
+        }
+        this.state.totalExperiments = this.state.experiments.length;
+        this.state.activeCount = this.state.experiments.filter(e => e.status === 'running' || e.status === 'analyzing').length;
+        writeFileSync(this.filePath(), JSON.stringify(this.state, null, 2));
+    }
+    // ─── Lifecycle ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+    create(def) {
+        const existing = this.state.experiments.find(e => e.name === def.name);
+        if (existing) {
+            throw new Error(`Experiment "${def.name}" already exists (status: ${existing.status})`);
+        }
+        const experiment = {
+            id: randomUUID(),
+            name: def.name,
+            hypothesis: def.hypothesis,
+            flag: def.flag,
+            status: 'draft',
+            currentPercentage: 0,
+            rampSchedule: def.targeting.rampSchedule,
+            duration: def.duration,
+            results: [],
+            guardrailStatus: 'ok',
+            sampleSize: 0,
+        };
+        this.state.experiments.push(experiment);
+        this.save();
+        return experiment;
+    }
+    start(name) {
+        const exp = this.findOrThrow(name);
+        if (exp.status !== 'draft') {
+            throw new Error(`Cannot start experiment "${name}" — current status: ${exp.status}`);
+        }
+        exp.status = 'running';
+        exp.startedAt = Date.now();
+        exp.currentPercentage = exp.rampSchedule.length > 0 ? exp.rampSchedule[0] : 10;
+        this.save();
+        return exp;
+    }
+    analyze(name) {
+        const exp = this.findOrThrow(name);
+        if (exp.status !== 'running' && exp.status !== 'analyzing') {
+            throw new Error(`Cannot analyze experiment "${name}" — current status: ${exp.status}`);
+        }
+        exp.status = 'analyzing';
+        // Generate simulated results for demonstration purposes.
+        // In production this would pull real metric data from an analytics provider.
+        const results = this.runStatisticalAnalysis(exp);
+        exp.results = results;
+        // Derive recommendation from results
+        const allSignificant = results.length > 0 && results.every(r => r.significant);
+        const anyNegative = results.some(r => r.liftPercent < 0 && r.significant);
+        const guardrailBreached = exp.guardrailStatus === 'breached';
+        if (guardrailBreached || anyNegative) {
+            exp.recommendation = 'kill';
+        }
+        else if (allSignificant) {
+            exp.recommendation = 'ship';
+        }
+        else if (exp.sampleSize < (exp.rampSchedule[exp.rampSchedule.length - 1] || 100)) {
+            exp.recommendation = 'ramp';
+        }
+        else {
+            exp.recommendation = 'extend';
+        }
+        this.save();
+        return results;
+    }
+    ship(name) {
+        const exp = this.findOrThrow(name);
+        if (exp.status !== 'running' && exp.status !== 'analyzing') {
+            throw new Error(`Cannot ship experiment "${name}" — current status: ${exp.status}`);
+        }
+        exp.status = 'shipped';
+        exp.currentPercentage = 100;
+        exp.endedAt = Date.now();
+        this.save();
+        return exp;
+    }
+    kill(name) {
+        const exp = this.findOrThrow(name);
+        if (exp.status === 'shipped' || exp.status === 'killed') {
+            throw new Error(`Experiment "${name}" is already ${exp.status}`);
+        }
+        exp.status = 'killed';
+        exp.currentPercentage = 0;
+        exp.endedAt = Date.now();
+        this.save();
+        return exp;
+    }
+    // ─── Queries ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    getState() {
+        return this.state;
+    }
+    getExperiment(name) {
+        return this.state.experiments.find(e => e.name === name);
+    }
+    getActive() {
+        return this.state.experiments.filter(e => e.status === 'running' || e.status === 'analyzing');
+    }
+    getHistory() {
+        return this.state.experiments.filter(e => e.status === 'shipped' || e.status === 'killed');
+    }
+    // ─── Guardrails ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+    checkGuardrails(name) {
+        const exp = this.findOrThrow(name);
+        const details = [];
+        let status = 'ok';
+        // Check duration guardrail
+        if (exp.startedAt) {
+            const elapsedDays = (Date.now() - exp.startedAt) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);
+            if (elapsedDays > exp.duration * 1.5) {
+                status = 'breached';
+                details.push(`Duration exceeded: ${elapsedDays.toFixed(1)}d vs ${exp.duration}d limit`);
+            }
+            else if (elapsedDays > exp.duration) {
+                status = 'warning';
+                details.push(`Duration warning: ${elapsedDays.toFixed(1)}d vs ${exp.duration}d limit`);
+            }
+        }
+        // Check for negative results on guardrail metrics
+        for (const result of exp.results) {
+            if (result.liftPercent < -5 && result.significant) {
+                status = 'breached';
+                details.push(`Metric "${result.metric}" regressed: ${result.liftPercent.toFixed(1)}% (p=${result.pValue.toFixed(4)})`);
+            }
+            else if (result.liftPercent < 0) {
+                if (status !== 'breached')
+                    status = 'warning';
+                details.push(`Metric "${result.metric}" trending negative: ${result.liftPercent.toFixed(1)}%`);
+            }
+        }
+        exp.guardrailStatus = status;
+        this.save();
+        return { status, details };
+    }
+    // ─── Ramp Schedule ──────────────────────────────────────────
+    ramp(name) {
+        const exp = this.findOrThrow(name);
+        if (exp.status !== 'running') {
+            throw new Error(`Cannot ramp experiment "${name}" — current status: ${exp.status}`);
+        }
+        const currentIdx = exp.rampSchedule.indexOf(exp.currentPercentage);
+        const nextIdx = currentIdx + 1;
+        if (nextIdx >= exp.rampSchedule.length) {
+            throw new Error(`Experiment "${name}" is already at max ramp (${exp.currentPercentage}%)`);
+        }
+        exp.currentPercentage = exp.rampSchedule[nextIdx];
+        this.save();
+        return exp;
+    }
+    // ─── Statistical Analysis ──────────────────────────────────
+    runStatisticalAnalysis(exp) {
+        // Simulated analysis — in production, this would ingest real metric data.
+        // We generate a plausible result based on the experiment's current state.
+        const elapsed = exp.startedAt ? (Date.now() - exp.startedAt) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24) : 0;
+        const estimatedSamples = Math.floor(exp.currentPercentage * elapsed * 10);
+        exp.sampleSize = Math.max(estimatedSamples, exp.sampleSize);
+        // Primary metric result via simulated z-test
+        const controlMean = 100;
+        const treatmentMean = controlMean * (1 + (Math.random() * 0.1 - 0.02)); // slight positive bias
+        const stddev = controlMean * 0.15;
+        const n = Math.max(exp.sampleSize, 30);
+        const result = this.zTest({ mean: controlMean, stddev, sampleSize: n }, { mean: treatmentMean, stddev: stddev * 0.95, sampleSize: n }, 'primary');
+        return [result];
+    }
+    zTest(control, treatment, metric, significanceLevel = 0.05) {
+        const pooledSE = Math.sqrt((control.stddev ** 2) / control.sampleSize +
+            (treatment.stddev ** 2) / treatment.sampleSize);
+        const zScore = pooledSE > 0
+            ? (treatment.mean - control.mean) / pooledSE
+            : 0;
+        // Approximate two-tailed p-value using normal CDF approximation
+        const pValue = 2 * (1 - this.normalCDF(Math.abs(zScore)));
+        const liftPercent = control.mean !== 0
+            ? ((treatment.mean - control.mean) / control.mean) * 100
+            : 0;
+        return {
+            metric,
+            control,
+            treatment,
+            pValue,
+            significant: pValue < significanceLevel,
+            liftPercent,
+        };
+    }
+    /** Approximation of the standard normal CDF (Abramowitz & Stegun). */
+    normalCDF(x) {
+        const a1 = 0.254829592;
+        const a2 = -0.284496736;
+        const a3 = 1.421413741;
+        const a4 = -1.453152027;
+        const a5 = 1.061405429;
+        const p = 0.3275911;
+        const sign = x < 0 ? -1 : 1;
+        x = Math.abs(x) / Math.SQRT2;
+        const t = 1.0 / (1.0 + p * x);
+        const y = 1.0 - (((((a5 * t + a4) * t) + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-x * x);
+        return 0.5 * (1.0 + sign * y);
+    }
+    // ─── Helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    findOrThrow(name) {
+        const exp = this.state.experiments.find(e => e.name === name);
+        if (!exp) {
+            throw new Error(`Experiment "${name}" not found`);
+        }
+        return exp;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=experiment-engine.js.map

package/dist/src/core/experiment-engine.js.map

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package/dist/src/core/federation.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+import type { SharedPattern, FederateState } from '../types.js';
+export declare class FederationManager {
+    private swarmDir;
+    private state;
+    constructor(swarmDir: string);
+    private filePath;
+    private load;
+    private save;
+    optIn(): void;
+    optOut(): void;
+    sharePatterns(): SharedPattern[];
+    receiveBenchmarks(): FederateState['benchmarks'];
+    getState(): FederateState;
+    private collectLocalPatterns;
+    private generateBenchmarks;
+    private detectStack;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=federation.d.ts.map

package/dist/src/core/federation.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"federation.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../../src/core/federation.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAGA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,aAAa,CAAC;AAchE,qBAAa,iBAAiB;IAC5B,OAAO,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAS;IACzB,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,CAAgB;gBAEjB,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM;IAO5B,OAAO,CAAC,QAAQ;IAIhB,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI;IAUZ,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI;IASZ,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI;IAKb,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI;IAOd,aAAa,IAAI,aAAa,EAAE;IAwBhC,iBAAiB,IAAI,aAAa,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC;IAehD,QAAQ,IAAI,aAAa;IAMzB,OAAO,CAAC,oBAAoB;IA8D5B,OAAO,CAAC,kBAAkB;IA2C1B,OAAO,CAAC,WAAW;CAcpB"}