hive-skills 0.1.0

package/assets/skills/authored/financial-analysis/composable/INDEX.md

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+# Financial Analysis: Loading Menu
+
+Loading policy: read this menu, then load 00-core (if present) plus the minis relevant to your task. If most of this skill is relevant, load BUNDLE.md (or a matching presets/*.md) in one read instead.
+
+- `mini/00-core.md` - analyst method, 5-phase workflow, data validation, cross-cutting traps, targets - **always load**
+- `mini/01-profitability-efficiency-ratios.md` - ROE, ROA, margins, turnover, DSO - Load when computing profitability or efficiency ratios.
+- `mini/02-liquidity-leverage-ratios.md` - current/quick/cash, D/E, coverage, DSCR - Load when assessing liquidity or leverage/credit.
+- `mini/03-valuation-ratios-interpretation.md` - P/E, P/B, P/S, EV/EBITDA, PEG, ratio best practices - Load when applying valuation multiples or interpreting ratios.
+- `mini/04-dcf-projection-wacc.md` - FCFF projection, revenue forecast, WACC, CAPM - Load when building a DCF or estimating discount rate.
+- `mini/05-dcf-terminal-value-sensitivity.md` - terminal value, equity bridge, sensitivity, pitfalls - Load when finishing a DCF or running sensitivity.
+- `mini/06-comparables-precedents.md` - comps, precedent transactions, framework selection - Load when valuing via multiples or sanity-checking DCF.
+- `mini/07-budget-variance-analysis.md` - variance calc, materiality, favorable/unfavorable - Load when analyzing actual vs budget/prior year.
+- `mini/08-driver-based-forecasting-scenarios.md` - driver models, scenarios (base/bull/bear) - Load when building forecasts or scenarios.
+- `mini/09-rolling-forecasts-accuracy.md` - rolling forecasts, 13-week cash, MAPE - Load when running rolling forecasts or tracking accuracy.
+- `mini/10-reporting-exec-summary.md` - exec summaries, stakeholder framing, cadence - Load when reporting findings.
+- `mini/11-industry-adaptations.md` - SaaS, retail, manufacturing, financial services, healthcare - Load when the target is in a specific sector.
+- `mini/12-toolkit-scripts-io.md` - the four scripts, templates, input JSON shapes, dependencies - Load when running or wiring the toolkit.

package/assets/skills/authored/financial-analysis/composable/VERSION

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+1.0.0

package/assets/skills/authored/financial-analysis/composable/mini/00-core.md

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+---
+pairs-with:
+  - data-analysis/01-data-quality-profiling.md
+---
+
+# Core: Financial Analyst Method
+
+Always-loaded foundation for a production-ready financial analysis toolkit providing ratio analysis, DCF valuation, budget variance analysis, and rolling forecast construction. Designed for financial modeling, forecasting & budgeting, management reporting, business performance analysis, and investment analysis. Load the focused minis (see INDEX) for formulas, benchmarks, methods, and tooling.
+
+## The 5-Phase Workflow
+
+### Phase 1: Scoping
+- Define analysis objectives and stakeholder requirements
+- Identify data sources and time periods
+- Establish materiality thresholds and accuracy targets
+- Select appropriate analytical frameworks
+
+### Phase 2: Data Analysis & Modeling
+- Collect and validate financial data (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow)
+- **Validate input data completeness** before running ratio calculations (check for missing fields, nulls, or implausible values)
+- Calculate financial ratios across 5 categories (profitability, liquidity, leverage, efficiency, valuation)
+- Build DCF models with WACC and terminal value calculations; **cross-check DCF outputs against sanity bounds** (e.g., implied multiples vs. comparables)
+- Construct budget variance analyses with favorable/unfavorable classification
+- Develop driver-based forecasts with scenario modeling
+
+### Phase 3: Insight Generation
+- Interpret ratio trends and benchmark against industry standards
+- Identify material variances and root causes
+- Assess valuation ranges through sensitivity analysis
+- Evaluate forecast scenarios (base/bull/bear) for decision support
+
+### Phase 4: Reporting
+- Generate executive summaries with key findings
+- Produce detailed variance reports by department and category
+- Deliver DCF valuation reports with sensitivity tables
+- Present rolling forecasts with trend analysis
+
+### Phase 5: Follow-up
+- Track forecast accuracy (target: +/-5% revenue, +/-3% expenses)
+- Monitor report delivery timeliness (target: 100% on time)
+- Update models with actuals as they become available
+- Refine assumptions based on variance analysis
+
+## Data-Validation Discipline (do this before computing)
+
+- **Validate completeness first**: check for missing fields, nulls, or implausible values before running any calculation. Forecasting without key driver inputs is a top accuracy killer.
+- **Check plausibility**: values within sane bounds (e.g., margins ≤ 100%, positive denominators).
+- **Cross-check outputs against sanity bounds**: reconcile DCF implied multiples against comparables; if terminal value exceeds 80% of enterprise value, shorten the projection or revisit assumptions; both TV methods (perpetuity vs exit multiple) should agree.
+
+## Cross-Cutting Traps
+
+- **Compare within industry**: ratios and multiples vary hugely across sectors; use direct peers, not just broad benchmarks.
+- **Trends over snapshots**: a single period is insufficient; review 3–5 year trends.
+- **Use multiple measures**: no single ratio or method tells the whole story.
+- **Consider context**: accounting policies, business cycle, and company stage matter.
+- **Watch for manipulation**: revenue-recognition changes, off-balance-sheet items, and one-time adjustments distort ratios.
+- **Avoid confirmation bias**: never work backward from a desired conclusion.
+- **Present ranges, not points**: always show sensitivity and quantify uncertainty rather than false precision.
+- **Documentation**: document every assumption; explain 100% of material variances.
+
+## Key Metrics & Targets
+
+| Metric | Target |
+|--------|--------|
+| Forecast accuracy (revenue) | +/-5% |
+| Forecast accuracy (expenses) | +/-3% |
+| Report delivery | 100% on time |
+| Model documentation | Complete for all assumptions |
+| Variance explanation | 100% of material variances |

package/assets/skills/authored/financial-analysis/composable/mini/01-profitability-efficiency-ratios.md

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+---
+pairs-with:
+  - 02-liquidity-leverage-ratios.md
+  - 03-valuation-ratios-interpretation.md
+---
+
+# Profitability & Efficiency Ratios
+
+## 1. Profitability Ratios
+
+Measure a company's ability to generate earnings relative to revenue, assets, or equity.
+
+### Return on Equity (ROE)
+
+**Formula:** Net Income / Total Shareholders' Equity
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures how effectively management uses equity to generate profits
+- Higher ROE indicates more efficient use of equity capital
+- Compare against cost of equity: ROE should exceed it
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Below Average | < 8% |
+| Acceptable | 8% - 15% |
+| Good | 15% - 25% |
+| Excellent | > 25% |
+
+**Caveats:** High leverage can inflate ROE. Use DuPont decomposition (ROE = Margin × Turnover × Leverage) for deeper analysis.
+
+### Return on Assets (ROA)
+
+**Formula:** Net Income / Total Assets
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures how efficiently assets generate profit
+- Asset-light businesses naturally have higher ROA
+- Compare within industry only
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Below Average | < 3% |
+| Acceptable | 3% - 6% |
+| Good | 6% - 12% |
+| Excellent | > 12% |
+
+### Gross Margin
+
+**Formula:** (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures production efficiency and pricing power
+- Declining gross margin may signal competitive pressure or cost inflation
+- Critical for evaluating business model sustainability
+
+**Benchmarks by Industry:**
+| Industry | Typical Range |
+|----------|--------------|
+| Software/SaaS | 70% - 85% |
+| Financial Services | 50% - 70% |
+| Retail | 25% - 45% |
+| Manufacturing | 20% - 40% |
+| Grocery | 25% - 30% |
+
+### Operating Margin
+
+**Formula:** Operating Income / Revenue
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures operational efficiency after all operating expenses
+- Excludes interest and taxes for better operational comparison
+- Indicates management effectiveness in controlling costs
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Below Average | < 5% |
+| Acceptable | 5% - 15% |
+| Good | 15% - 25% |
+| Excellent | > 25% |
+
+### Net Margin
+
+**Formula:** Net Income / Revenue
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Bottom-line profitability after all expenses
+- Affected by tax strategy, capital structure, and one-time items
+- Most comprehensive profitability measure
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Below Average | < 3% |
+| Acceptable | 3% - 10% |
+| Good | 10% - 20% |
+| Excellent | > 20% |
+
+## 4. Efficiency Ratios
+
+Measure how effectively a company uses its assets and manages operations.
+
+### Asset Turnover
+
+**Formula:** Revenue / Total Assets
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures revenue generated per dollar of assets
+- Higher indicates more efficient asset utilization
+- Inversely related to profit margins (DuPont)
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Industry | Typical Range |
+|----------|--------------|
+| Retail | 2.0 - 3.0 |
+| Manufacturing | 0.8 - 1.5 |
+| Utilities | 0.3 - 0.5 |
+| Technology | 0.5 - 1.0 |
+
+### Inventory Turnover
+
+**Formula:** COGS / Average Inventory
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures how quickly inventory is sold
+- Low turnover suggests overstock or obsolescence risk
+- High turnover may indicate strong sales or thin inventory
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Slow | < 4x |
+| Average | 4x - 8x |
+| Efficient | 8x - 12x |
+| Very Efficient | > 12x |
+
+### Receivables Turnover
+
+**Formula:** Revenue / Accounts Receivable
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures efficiency of credit and collections
+- Higher turnover means faster collections
+- Monitor trends for credit policy changes
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Slow | < 6x |
+| Average | 6x - 10x |
+| Efficient | 10x - 15x |
+| Very Efficient | > 15x |
+
+### Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
+
+**Formula:** 365 / Receivables Turnover
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Average days to collect payment after a sale
+- Lower DSO = faster cash conversion
+- Compare against payment terms
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Excellent | < 30 days |
+| Good | 30 - 45 days |
+| Acceptable | 45 - 60 days |
+| Concern | > 60 days |
+
+Always compare within industry, review 3–5 year trends, and pair with liquidity/leverage and valuation ratios for a complete picture.

package/assets/skills/authored/financial-analysis/composable/mini/02-liquidity-leverage-ratios.md

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+---
+pairs-with:
+  - 01-profitability-efficiency-ratios.md
+---
+
+# Liquidity & Leverage Ratios
+
+## 2. Liquidity Ratios
+
+Measure a company's ability to meet short-term obligations.
+
+### Current Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Current Assets / Current Liabilities
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures short-term solvency
+- Too high may indicate inefficient asset use
+- Too low signals potential liquidity risk
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Concern | < 1.0 |
+| Acceptable | 1.0 - 1.5 |
+| Healthy | 1.5 - 3.0 |
+| Excessive | > 3.0 |
+
+### Quick Ratio (Acid Test)
+
+**Formula:** (Current Assets - Inventory) / Current Liabilities
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- More conservative than current ratio
+- Excludes inventory (least liquid current asset)
+- Critical for businesses with slow-moving inventory
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Concern | < 0.8 |
+| Acceptable | 0.8 - 1.0 |
+| Healthy | 1.0 - 2.0 |
+| Excessive | > 2.0 |
+
+### Cash Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Cash & Equivalents / Current Liabilities
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Most conservative liquidity measure
+- Indicates ability to pay obligations with cash on hand
+- Particularly important during credit crunches
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Low | < 0.2 |
+| Adequate | 0.2 - 0.5 |
+| Strong | 0.5 - 1.0 |
+| Excessive | > 1.0 |
+
+## 3. Leverage Ratios
+
+Measure the extent to which a company uses debt financing.
+
+### Debt-to-Equity Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Total Debt / Total Shareholders' Equity
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures financial leverage and risk
+- Higher ratio = more reliance on debt financing
+- Industry norms vary significantly (utilities vs tech)
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Conservative | < 0.3 |
+| Moderate | 0.3 - 0.8 |
+| Elevated | 0.8 - 2.0 |
+| High Risk | > 2.0 |
+
+### Interest Coverage Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Operating Income (EBIT) / Interest Expense
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Measures ability to service debt from operating earnings
+- Below 1.5x is a red flag for lenders
+- Critical for credit analysis
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Distressed | < 2.0 |
+| Adequate | 2.0 - 5.0 |
+| Strong | 5.0 - 10.0 |
+| Very Strong | > 10.0 |
+
+### Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)
+
+**Formula:** Operating Cash Flow / Total Debt Service
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Cash-based measure of debt servicing capacity
+- Includes principal repayments (unlike interest coverage)
+- Required by many loan covenants
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Default Risk | < 1.0 |
+| Minimum | 1.0 - 1.5 |
+| Comfortable | 1.5 - 2.5 |
+| Strong | > 2.5 |
+
+## Application
+
+Compare within industry: leverage norms differ sharply across sectors. Analyze 3–5 year trends rather than a single snapshot, and use these alongside profitability, efficiency, and valuation ratios. Watch for off-balance-sheet items and one-time adjustments that can distort the liquidity and leverage picture.

package/assets/skills/authored/financial-analysis/composable/mini/03-valuation-ratios-interpretation.md

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+---
+pairs-with:
+  - 06-comparables-precedents.md
+---
+
+# Valuation Ratios & Ratio-Analysis Discipline
+
+## 5. Valuation Ratios
+
+Measure a company's market value relative to financial metrics.
+
+### Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Share Price / Earnings Per Share
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Most widely used valuation metric
+- High P/E suggests growth expectations or overvaluation
+- Use trailing (TTM) and forward P/E for comparison
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Value | < 10x |
+| Fair | 10x - 20x |
+| Growth | 20x - 35x |
+| Premium | > 35x |
+
+### Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Share Price / Book Value Per Share
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Compares market value to accounting value
+- Below 1.0 may indicate undervaluation or distress
+- Most useful for asset-heavy industries
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Undervalued | < 1.0 |
+| Fair | 1.0 - 2.5 |
+| Premium | 2.5 - 5.0 |
+| Rich | > 5.0 |
+
+### Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio
+
+**Formula:** Market Cap / Revenue
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Useful for companies without positive earnings
+- Compare within industry only
+- Lower = potentially better value
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Value | < 1.0 |
+| Fair | 1.0 - 3.0 |
+| Growth | 3.0 - 8.0 |
+| Premium | > 8.0 |
+
+### EV/EBITDA
+
+**Formula:** Enterprise Value / EBITDA
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Capital-structure-neutral valuation metric
+- Preferred for M&A analysis and leveraged buyouts
+- More comparable across capital structures than P/E
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Value | < 6x |
+| Fair | 6x - 12x |
+| Growth | 12x - 20x |
+| Premium | > 20x |
+
+### PEG Ratio
+
+**Formula:** P/E Ratio / Earnings Growth Rate (%)
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- Growth-adjusted P/E ratio
+- PEG of 1.0 suggests fair valuation relative to growth
+- Below 1.0 may indicate undervaluation
+
+**Benchmarks:**
+| Rating | Range |
+|--------|-------|
+| Undervalued | < 0.5 |
+| Fair | 0.5 - 1.0 |
+| Fully Valued | 1.0 - 2.0 |
+| Overvalued | > 2.0 |
+
+## Ratio Analysis Best Practices
+
+1. **Compare within industry** - Ratios vary significantly across sectors
+2. **Analyze trends** - A single period snapshot is insufficient; look at 3-5 year trends
+3. **Use multiple ratios** - No single ratio tells the complete story
+4. **Consider context** - Accounting policies, business cycle, and company stage matter
+5. **DuPont decomposition** - Break ROE into margin, turnover, and leverage components
+6. **Peer comparison** - Compare against direct competitors, not just broad benchmarks
+7. **Watch for manipulation** - Revenue recognition changes, off-balance-sheet items, and one-time adjustments can distort ratios
+
+These valuation multiples double as sanity checks on DCF outputs: an implied EV/EBITDA or P/E far outside peer ranges signals inconsistent DCF assumptions.

package/assets/skills/authored/financial-analysis/composable/mini/04-dcf-projection-wacc.md

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+---
+requires:
+  - 05-dcf-terminal-value-sensitivity.md
+pairs-with:
+  - 08-driver-based-forecasting-scenarios.md
+  - 06-comparables-precedents.md
+---
+
+# DCF: Cash-Flow Projection & WACC
+
+## Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Methodology
+
+### Overview
+
+DCF is an intrinsic valuation method that estimates the present value of a company's expected future free cash flows, discounted at an appropriate rate reflecting the risk of those cash flows.
+
+**Core Principle:** The value of a business equals the present value of all future cash flows it will generate.
+
+**Formula:**
+
+```
+Enterprise Value = Sum of [FCF_t / (1 + WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1 + WACC)^n
+```
+
+Where:
+- FCF_t = Free Cash Flow in year t
+- WACC = Weighted Average Cost of Capital
+- n = number of projection years
+
+### Step 1: Historical Analysis
+
+Before projecting, analyze 3-5 years of historical financials:
+
+- **Revenue growth rates** - Identify organic vs acquisition-driven growth
+- **Margin trends** - Gross, operating, and net margin trajectories
+- **Capital intensity** - CapEx as % of revenue
+- **Working capital** - Cash conversion cycle trends
+- **Free cash flow conversion** - FCF / Net Income ratio
+
+### Step 2: Revenue Projections
+
+**Approaches:**
+1. **Top-down:** Market size × Market share × Pricing
+2. **Bottom-up:** Units × Price, or Customers × ARPU
+3. **Growth rate extrapolation:** Historical growth with decay
+
+**Revenue Projection Best Practices:**
+- Use 5-7 year explicit projection period
+- Growth should converge toward GDP growth by terminal year
+- Support assumptions with market data and management guidance
+- Model revenue by segment/product line when possible
+
+### Step 3: Free Cash Flow Calculation
+
+**Unlevered Free Cash Flow (UFCF):**
+
+```
+UFCF = EBIT × (1 - Tax Rate)
+     + Depreciation & Amortization
+     - Capital Expenditures
+     - Changes in Net Working Capital
+```
+
+**Key Drivers:**
+- Operating margin trajectory
+- CapEx as % of revenue (maintenance vs growth)
+- Working capital requirements (DSO, DIO, DPO)
+- Tax rate (effective vs marginal)
+
+### Step 4: WACC Calculation
+
+**Weighted Average Cost of Capital:**
+
+```
+WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1 - T))
+```
+
+Where:
+- E/V = Equity weight (market value)
+- D/V = Debt weight (market value)
+- Re = Cost of equity
+- Rd = Cost of debt (pre-tax)
+- T = Marginal tax rate
+
+#### Cost of Equity (CAPM)
+
+```
+Re = Rf + Beta × (Rm - Rf) + Size Premium + Company-Specific Risk
+```
+
+| Component | Description | Typical Range |
+|-----------|-------------|---------------|
+| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 10-year Treasury yield | 3.5% - 5.0% |
+| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | Market return above risk-free | 5.0% - 7.0% |
+| Beta | Systematic risk relative to market | 0.5 - 2.0 |
+| Size Premium | Small-cap additional risk | 0% - 5% |
+| Company-Specific Risk | Unique risk factors | 0% - 5% |
+
+**Beta Estimation:**
+- Use 2-5 year weekly returns against broad market index
+- Unlevered betas for comparability, then re-lever to target capital structure
+- Consider industry median beta for stability
+
+#### Cost of Debt
+
+```
+Rd = Yield on comparable-maturity corporate bonds
+   OR
+Rd = Risk-Free Rate + Credit Spread
+```
+
+**Credit Spread by Rating:**
+| Rating | Typical Spread |
+|--------|---------------|
+| AAA | 0.5% - 1.0% |
+| AA | 1.0% - 1.5% |
+| A | 1.5% - 2.0% |
+| BBB | 2.0% - 3.0% |
+| BB | 3.0% - 5.0% |
+| B | 5.0% - 8.0% |
+
+Beware circular references: WACC depends on equity value which depends on WACC. Continue to terminal value, the equity bridge, and sensitivity in the paired mini.

package/assets/skills/authored/financial-analysis/composable/mini/05-dcf-terminal-value-sensitivity.md

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+---
+requires:
+  - 04-dcf-projection-wacc.md
+pairs-with:
+  - 06-comparables-precedents.md
+---
+
+# DCF: Terminal Value, Equity Bridge & Sensitivity
+
+### Step 5: Terminal Value
+
+Terminal value typically represents 60-80% of total enterprise value. Use two methods and cross-check.
+
+#### Perpetuity Growth Method
+
+```
+TV = FCF_n × (1 + g) / (WACC - g)
+```
+
+Where g = terminal growth rate (typically 2.0% - 3.0%, should not exceed long-term GDP growth)
+
+**Sensitivity:** Terminal value is highly sensitive to g. A 0.5% change in g can move enterprise value by 15-25%.
+
+#### Exit Multiple Method
+
+```
+TV = Terminal Year EBITDA × Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple
+```
+
+**Exit Multiple Selection:**
+- Use current trading multiples of comparable companies
+- Consider whether current multiples are at historical highs/lows
+- Apply a discount for lack of marketability if private
+
+**Cross-Check:** Both methods should yield similar results. Large discrepancies signal inconsistent assumptions.
+
+### Step 6: Enterprise to Equity Bridge
+
+```
+Enterprise Value
+- Net Debt (Total Debt - Cash)
+- Minority Interest
+- Preferred Equity
++ Equity Method Investments
+= Equity Value
+
+Equity Value / Diluted Shares Outstanding = Value Per Share
+```
+
+Use fully diluted shares (treasury stock method for options): ignoring dilution overstates per-share value.
+
+### Step 7: Sensitivity Analysis
+
+Always present results as a range, not a single point estimate.
+
+**Standard Sensitivity Tables:**
+1. WACC vs Terminal Growth Rate
+2. WACC vs Exit Multiple
+3. Revenue Growth vs Operating Margin
+
+**Scenario Analysis:**
+- Base case: Management guidance / consensus estimates
+- Bull case: Upside scenario with faster growth or margin expansion
+- Bear case: Downside scenario with slower growth or margin compression
+
+## Common Pitfalls
+
+1. **Hockey stick projections** - Unrealistic growth acceleration in later years
+2. **Terminal value dominance** - If TV > 80% of EV, shorten projection period or question assumptions
+3. **Circular references** - WACC depends on equity value which depends on WACC
+4. **Ignoring working capital** - Can significantly affect FCF
+5. **Single-point estimates** - Always present as a range
+6. **Stale comparables** - Market conditions change; update regularly
+7. **Confirmation bias** - Don't work backward from a desired conclusion
+8. **Ignoring dilution** - Use fully diluted shares (treasury stock method for options)