code-ai-installer 2.1.0 → 2.3.0

package/domains/product/locales/en/.agents/skills/saas-metrics/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,404 @@
+---
+name: saas-metrics
+description: B2B SaaS metrics — MRR/ARR, gross/net churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, Payback, Rule of 40, Magic Number
+---
+# SaaS Metrics (B2B)
+
+> **Category:** Metrics  ·  **Slug:** `saas-metrics`
+
+## When to Use
+
+- For board / investor reporting — standard SaaS health view.
+- For PRD Success Criteria — how a PM initiative will affect MRR/NRR/churn.
+- For unit economics evaluation — sustainable growth.
+- For strategic decisions — pricing, segment focus, expansion.
+
+## Input
+
+| Field | Required | Description |
+|-------|:--------:|-------------|
+| Finance data | ✅ | Subscription revenue, billing history |
+| CRM data | ✅ | Account status, cohort, upgrades/downgrades |
+| Customer data | ✅ | Cohorts, churn events, contract terms |
+| Costs | ✅ | CAC (S&M spend per acquired), product costs |
+| Period | ✅ | Monthly / quarterly view |
+
+## Data Sources
+
+1. Billing system (Stripe, Chargebee, etc.)
+2. CRM (Salesforce, HubSpot)
+3. Finance (ERP, spreadsheets)
+4. Analytics (usage data for churn prediction)
+
+### Related Skills
+
+| Skill | What we take | When to invoke |
+|-------|-------------|----------------|
+| `aarrr-metrics` | Funnel view | Complement AARRR |
+| `north-star-metric` | NSM alignment | NSM is often a derivative SaaS metric |
+| `hypothesis-template` | Impact modeling | For PRD |
+| `unit-economics` (if available) | Deep unit view | Alternative / complement |
+
+## Core Metrics
+
+### Revenue
+
+- **MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue)** — sum of all active monthly subscriptions (normalized if annual / quarterly)
+  - New MRR (from new customers)
+  - Expansion MRR (upsells, add-ons)
+  - Contraction MRR (downgrades)
+  - Churn MRR (lost to cancellation)
+  - Reactivation MRR (returning customers)
+- **ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)** — MRR × 12
+- **Net New MRR** = New + Expansion − Contraction − Churn
+
+### Churn / Retention
+
+- **Gross Customer Churn** — customers lost / total at start
+- **Net Customer Churn** — (lost − reactivated) / total
+- **Gross Revenue Churn** — MRR lost / total MRR at start
+- **Net Revenue Churn** — (MRR lost − expansion) / total MRR
+  - **Can be negative** (key B2B SaaS metric — «negative churn» = expansion > churn)
+
+### NRR (Net Revenue Retention)
+
+```
+NRR = (Starting MRR + Expansion − Contraction − Churn) / Starting MRR × 100%
+```
+
+**B2B SaaS benchmarks:**
+- 100% = breaking even on existing base
+- 110-120% = healthy B2B
+- 130%+ = world-class (Snowflake, Datadog)
+- < 100% = red flag (shrinking base)
+
+### Unit Economics
+
+- **CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)** — total S&M spend / new customers acquired
+  - Blended: all customers
+  - Paid: acquisition from paid channels only
+- **LTV (Lifetime Value)** — average revenue from customer over their lifetime
+  - Simple: ARPA / gross churn rate
+  - ARPA = Average Revenue Per Account (monthly)
+- **LTV / CAC ratio** — sustainable at 3× or higher
+  - < 1× = destroying value
+  - 1-3× = ok, room for improvement
+  - 3×+ = healthy
+  - 5×+ = possibly under-investing in growth
+- **CAC Payback Period** — months to recover CAC from gross margin
+  - Target: < 12 months (B2B SaaS)
+  - 12-18 months = ok for enterprise
+  - > 24 months = unhealthy
+
+### Growth Health
+
+- **Rule of 40** = Growth Rate (%) + EBITDA Margin (%) ≥ 40%
+  - Trade-off: fast growth allows lower margin, slow growth requires profit
+  - < 40 = not attractive, either grow or profit more
+- **Magic Number** = (ARR this quarter − ARR last quarter) × 4 / Sales & Marketing spend last quarter
+  - > 1 = efficient growth
+  - 0.5-1 = ok
+  - < 0.5 = inefficient S&M
+- **Burn Multiple** = Net Burn / Net New ARR
+  - < 1 = great, more ARR than burn
+  - 1-2 = acceptable
+  - > 2 = worrying
+
+## Protocol
+
+### Step 0 — Period & Scope
+
+- Period: monthly baseline, quarterly for board
+- Scope: all products? per product line? per segment?
+
+### Step 1 — Revenue Decomposition
+
+Monthly waterfall:
+- Starting MRR (carryover from last month)
+- + New MRR
+- + Expansion MRR
+- − Contraction MRR
+- − Churn MRR
+- = Ending MRR
+
+### Step 2 — Cohort Analysis
+
+Track customer cohorts by signup month:
+- Starting count
+- Retention by month (month 1, 3, 6, 12, 24)
+- Revenue expansion per cohort
+- Gross + Net revenue retention curves
+
+B2B healthy: retention curve stabilizes around 60-85% at 12 months (depends on segment).
+
+### Step 3 — Per-Segment
+
+Split metrics by segment:
+- SMB vs mid-market vs enterprise — radically different metrics
+- SMB: higher churn, lower ARPA, shorter payback
+- Enterprise: lower churn, higher ARPA, longer payback, higher NRR
+
+### Step 4 — Unit Economics Per Segment
+
+| Segment | ARPA | Gross Churn | LTV | CAC | LTV/CAC | Payback |
+|---------|:----:|:-----------:|:---:|:---:|:-------:|:-------:|
+| SMB | $50/mo | 4% | $1,250 | $400 | 3.1× | 10 months |
+| Mid-market | $500/mo | 1.5% | $33,333 | $8,000 | 4.2× | 16 months |
+| Enterprise | $5,000/mo | 0.5% | $1M | $150,000 | 6.7× | 24 months |
+
+### Step 5 — Leading Indicators
+
+Predictors for churn / expansion:
+- Usage frequency (decrease = churn risk)
+- Team seats adoption
+- Feature depth
+- Support ticket pattern
+- Renewal risk score
+
+### Step 6 — Benchmark
+
+Compare to industry:
+- SaaS Capital Index
+- OpenView benchmark reports
+- ChartMogul benchmarks
+- Public SaaS companies (10-K filings)
+
+### Step 7 — Forecasting
+
+Modeling:
+- Base + optimistic + pessimistic scenarios
+- New MRR from channels × conversion
+- Expansion from existing cohorts
+- Churn from historical curves
+
+## Validation (Quality Gate)
+
+- [ ] MRR decomposition (new / exp / contract / churn)
+- [ ] Gross + Net churn separated
+- [ ] NRR calculated
+- [ ] LTV / CAC / Payback per segment
+- [ ] Cohort retention curves
+- [ ] Rule of 40 computed
+- [ ] Segment-split present (not only blended)
+- [ ] Benchmarked against industry
+- [ ] Forecasts scenario-based
+
+## Handoff
+
+The result is input for:
+- **`north-star-metric`** — NSM should relate to NRR / retention
+- **`hypothesis-template`** — expected SaaS metric impact per initiative
+- **PRD Success Criteria** — quantified business impact
+- **Board / Exec reporting**
+
+Format: SaaS metrics dashboard / doc. Via `$handoff`.
+
+## Anti-patterns
+
+| Error | Why it's bad | How to do it right |
+|-------|-------------|-------------------|
+| ARR vs MRR confusion | Wrong numbers | MRR × 12 = ARR only for monthly; otherwise careful |
+| Ignore contraction | Over-reports growth | Separate contraction from churn |
+| Only blended metrics | Hides segment truth | Always per-segment |
+| LTV/CAC without payback | Distorted view | Both together |
+| Cherry-pick cohorts | Survivorship bias | All cohorts |
+| Magic Number alone | Pre-revenue misleading | With Burn Multiple |
+| Gross margin confusion | LTV × wrong margin | Gross margin, not revenue LTV |
+
+## Template
+
+```markdown
+# SaaS Metrics Dashboard — Q2 2026
+
+## Revenue Waterfall
+- Starting MRR: $X
+- + New MRR: $Y
+- + Expansion: $Z
+- − Contraction: $A
+- − Churn: $B
+- = Ending MRR: $C
+- Net New MRR: $D
+
+## Retention
+- Gross Rev Churn: X%
+- Net Rev Retention: Y%
+- Customer Gross Churn: Z%
+- Customer Net Churn: A%
+
+## Unit Economics (per segment)
+| Segment | ARPA | Churn | LTV | CAC | LTV/CAC | Payback |
+| SMB | | | | | | |
+| Mid-market | | | | | | |
+| Enterprise | | | | | | |
+
+## Growth Health
+- Rule of 40: [growth%] + [margin%] = X
+- Magic Number: Y
+- Burn Multiple: Z
+
+## Cohort Retention
+[Curve chart by cohort]
+
+## Benchmarks
+- Industry median NRR: 110%
+- Our NRR: 115% ✅
+- ...
+
+## Forecast
+| Scenario | Q3 ARR | Q4 ARR |
+| Base | | |
+| Optimistic | | |
+| Pessimistic | | |
+```
+
+## Worked Example — TeamFlow SaaS Metrics Dashboard Q2 2026
+
+```markdown
+# SaaS Metrics Dashboard — TeamFlow Q2 2026
+
+## Company Snapshot
+- **Stage:** Series B, 5 years post-founding, $8M ARR
+- **Customers:** 200 active (120 SMB + 70 mid-market + 10 enterprise)
+- **Headcount:** 45
+- **Period:** Q2 2026 (April 1 – June 30)
+
+---
+
+## Revenue Waterfall (Q2 2026)
+
+| Line Item | Amount | Notes |
+|-----------|--------|-------|
+| **Starting MRR (April 1)** | **$667K** | $8M ARR ÷ 12 |
+| + New MRR (new customers) | +$140K | 14 new customer logos, blended ACV ~$3.3K/mo avg |
+| + Expansion MRR (existing) | +$213K | 38 accounts added seats / upgraded tier (AI Tier early upgrades) |
+| − Contraction MRR | −$20K | 8 accounts downgraded (SMB price sensitivity) |
+| − Churn MRR | −$160K | 5 customer logos churned (matches 2.5% quarterly = ~8% annual gross churn anchor) |
+| = **Ending MRR (June 30)** | **$840K** | |
+| **Net New MRR** | **+$173K** | Health measure: +26% QoQ MRR growth |
+
+Annualized: ARR end of Q2 = $10.08M (12 × $840K). QoQ annualized growth rate: ~26% → trailing annualized ~125% if sustained (optimistic, actual will moderate as AI Tier early-adopter burst fades).
+
+**NRR verification:** (Start − Churn − Contraction + Expansion) / Start = (667 − 160 − 20 + 213) / 667 = 700 / 667 = **105.0%** ✓ matches stated NRR
+
+---
+
+## Retention Metrics
+
+| Metric | Value | Benchmark (B2B SaaS median) | Status |
+|--------|:-----:|:--------------------------:|:------:|
+| **Gross Revenue Churn** (Q2) | 2.1% (annualized ~8.4%) | 10-15% annual | ✅ healthy |
+| **Net Revenue Retention (NRR)** | 105% (from 108% Q1) | 115% median | ⚠️ declining |
+| **Customer Gross Churn** (Q2) | 2.5% logo churn (annualized ~10%) | 8-12% annual | ✅ on target |
+| **Customer Net Churn** | −1.5% net (5 churned, 12 expansion reactivation, +9 net) | N/A | |
+
+**Key insight:** NRR dropped 3pp QoQ. Investigation: SMB tier price sensitivity + insufficient expansion motion. **AI tier launch (Q2 late) expected to revert by Q3.**
+
+---
+
+## Unit Economics — Per Segment
+
+> All LTV/CAC computed with 80% gross margin (SaaS standard). Segment ARPAs chosen so total ARR ≈ $8M: SMB $432K + Mid $4.2M + Ent $3.6M = $8.23M ≈ $8M anchor.
+
+| Segment | ARPA/mo | ARPA/yr | Gross Churn (annual) | LTV (GM 80%) | CAC | LTV/CAC | CAC Payback |
+|---------|:-------:|:-------:|:--------------------:|:------------:|:---:|:-------:|:-----------:|
+| **SMB** (120 customers) | $300 | $3,600 | 20% | $14,400 | $4,800 | **3.0×** | 24 mo |
+| **Mid-market** (70 customers) | $5,000 | $60,000 | 10% | $480,000 | $80,000 | **6.0×** | 20 mo |
+| **Enterprise** (10 customers) | $30,000 | $360,000 | 5% | $5,760,000 | $600,000 | **9.6×** | 25 mo |
+| **Blended (weighted)** | $3,333 | $40,000 | ~10% | ~$320,000 | ~$60,000 | **~5.3×** | ~22 mo |
+
+**LTV formula:** `LTV = ARPA_annual × gross_margin / annual_gross_churn` (standard B2B SaaS).
+
+**Key insights:**
+- **Enterprise economics excellent** — 9.6× LTV/CAC justifies aggressive investment in enterprise GTM.
+- **SMB at 3× threshold** — healthy but sensitive to churn deterioration; SMB price tier needs ongoing optimization.
+- **Blended 5.3×** — above industry median (3.0×), room for continued S&M expansion.
+- **Strategic question:** double down on SMB volume or shift mix to mid+ where unit economics sing?
+
+---
+
+## Growth Health Metrics
+
+| Metric | Value | Target | Status |
+|--------|:-----:|:------:|:------:|
+| **Rule of 40** = Growth% + EBITDA% | 52% + (−15%) = **37%** | ≥ 40% | ⚠️ just below |
+| **Magic Number** (S&M efficiency) | **1.15** | > 1.0 | ✅ efficient |
+| **Burn Multiple** (Net Burn / Net New ARR) | **1.8×** | < 1.5× | ⚠️ slightly high |
+| **Pipeline Coverage** (pipeline / quota) | 3.2× | ≥ 3× | ✅ healthy |
+
+**Investor narrative:**
+- Rule of 40 at 37% — «tight but growing»; AI tier launch strategy aims to add 5pp to growth rate without increasing burn
+- Magic Number 1.15 supports continued S&M investment
+- Burn Multiple 1.8× reflects R&D investment in AI — justified, will normalize post-MVP
+
+---
+
+## Cohort Retention Curves
+
+**Q1 2025 cohort retention (by month):**
+
+| Month | # Remaining | Retention | Revenue Retention |
+|:-----:|:-----------:|:---------:|:-----------------:|
+| Month 1 | 38 of 40 | 95% | 98% |
+| Month 3 | 34 | 85% | 92% |
+| Month 6 | 31 | 78% | 105% (expansion >churn) |
+| Month 12 | 28 | 70% | 118% |
+| Month 24 | 25 | 63% | 142% |
+
+**Interpretation:**
+- **Logo retention decays** (63% at 24 mo)
+- **Revenue retention grows** (142% at 24 mo) — strong expansion per retained account
+- **Pattern typical for B2B SaaS** — few big accounts expand aggressively, offset logo loss
+
+**Cohort comparison:**
+- **Q2 2024 cohort:** 60% at 24mo (slightly worse) — improving over time
+- **Q1 2026 cohort:** 95% at 3mo (much stronger) — new motion paying off
+
+---
+
+## Key Metric: «Sticky Manager Ratio» (NSM Tracking)
+
+- **Baseline (pre-AI tier):** 0% (feature not existing)
+- **90-day target (post AI tier launch):** 20%
+- **Current (projected):** on track for 18% by end Q2, pull back 2pp to target with continued GTM
+
+---
+
+## Benchmark Comparison (Industry)
+
+| Metric | TeamFlow | Median B2B SaaS | Top Quartile |
+|--------|:--------:|:--------------:|:------------:|
+| NRR | 105% | 110% | 125%+ |
+| Gross Churn | 8% | 10% | <6% |
+| LTV/CAC (blended) | 2.8× | 3.0× | 5.0×+ |
+| Rule of 40 | 37% | 40% | 60%+ |
+| Magic Number | 1.15 | 0.9 | 1.5+ |
+
+**Overall position:** Middle of pack. Magic Number above median, but NRR / LTV-CAC below. AI tier strategy aims to pull all three into top-quartile by Q4 2026.
+
+---
+
+## Scenario Forecasts (Q3-Q4 2026)
+
+| Scenario | Q3 ARR | Q4 ARR | Key Assumptions |
+|----------|:------:|:------:|-----------------|
+| **Base** | $9.5M | $10.8M | AI tier adoption hits 15% by Q3, 25% by Q4; NRR climbs to 110% |
+| **Optimistic** | $10.2M | $12.5M | AI tier adoption 20%+ by Q3, 5 new Enterprise deals, NRR 115% |
+| **Pessimistic** | $8.8M | $9.5M | AI tier adoption <10%, continued SMB churn, NRR stays 105% |
+
+**Factors for base/optimistic pivot:**
+- H-001 (WTP) validation — if WTP confirmed, optimistic scenario triggered
+- LLM quality H-002 pass — if passes, all scenarios possible; fail pushes to pessimistic
+- Enterprise tier conversion — 5 deals in Q2 is base; 10+ triggers optimistic
+
+---
+
+## Action Items (for Leadership)
+
+1. **NRR decline watch:** weekly tracking, intervention plan prepared if NRR <100% at any week
+2. **SMB churn deep-dive:** cash flow analysis of 14 Q2 churn events — patterns?
+3. **AI tier launch execution:** on track, but marketing amplification needed (CRO ownership)
+4. **Enterprise tier pipeline:** 8 deals in active negotiation — 5 closing target by Q2 end; ensure SOC 2 attestation unblocks them
+5. **Q3 planning:** post-H-002 validation, allocate R&D between AI iteration vs Enterprise tier features
+```
+
+> **saas-metrics lesson:** Blended metrics **hide** segment realities — Enterprise 11× LTV/CAC vs SMB 2.87× requires completely different strategies. **Cohort analysis reveals time-dynamics** — logo churn looks bad, but revenue retention growth compensates (typical B2B). **NRR trend (not absolute)** matters more than point value — 108→105 is worth investigating even though 105 acceptable. **Scenario forecasts** tied to **validated/pending hypotheses** — not random assumptions. Dashboard tells story: «we're middle-pack, AI tier is our move to top-quartile, here are the leading indicators».

package/domains/product/locales/en/.agents/skills/saas-metrics/agents/claude.json

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+{
+  "name": "saas-metrics",
+  "display_name": "SaaS Metrics",
+  "description": "B2B SaaS metrics — MRR/ARR, gross/net churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, Payback, Rule of 40, Magic Number",
+  "default_prompt": "Use $saas-metrics when the task relates to the skill \"SaaS Metrics\".",
+  "triggers": [
+    "saas-metrics",
+    "SaaS metrics",
+    "MRR",
+    "ARR",
+    "churn",
+    "LTV",
+    "CAC",
+    "NRR"
+  ],
+  "capabilities": [
+    "saas-metrics"
+  ],
+  "tools": [],
+  "implicit_invocation": true
+}

package/domains/product/locales/en/.agents/skills/saas-metrics/agents/copilot.json

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+{
+  "name": "saas-metrics",
+  "display_name": "SaaS Metrics",
+  "description": "B2B SaaS metrics — MRR/ARR, gross/net churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, Payback, Rule of 40, Magic Number",
+  "default_prompt": "Use $saas-metrics when the task relates to the skill \"SaaS Metrics\".",
+  "triggers": [
+    "saas-metrics",
+    "SaaS metrics",
+    "MRR",
+    "ARR",
+    "churn",
+    "LTV",
+    "CAC",
+    "NRR"
+  ],
+  "capabilities": [
+    "saas-metrics"
+  ],
+  "tools": [],
+  "implicit_invocation": true
+}

package/domains/product/locales/en/.agents/skills/saas-metrics/agents/gemini.json

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+{
+  "name": "saas-metrics",
+  "display_name": "SaaS Metrics",
+  "description": "B2B SaaS metrics — MRR/ARR, gross/net churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, Payback, Rule of 40, Magic Number",
+  "default_prompt": "Use $saas-metrics when the task relates to the skill \"SaaS Metrics\".",
+  "triggers": [
+    "saas-metrics",
+    "SaaS metrics",
+    "MRR",
+    "ARR",
+    "churn",
+    "LTV",
+    "CAC",
+    "NRR"
+  ],
+  "capabilities": [
+    "saas-metrics"
+  ],
+  "tools": [],
+  "implicit_invocation": true
+}

package/domains/product/locales/en/.agents/skills/saas-metrics/agents/openai.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+interface:
+  display_name: "SaaS Metrics (B2B)"
+  short_description: "B2B SaaS metrics — MRR/ARR, gross/net churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, Payback, Rule of 40, Magic Number"
+  default_prompt: "Use $saas-metrics when the task relates to the skill \"SaaS Metrics (B2B)\"."
+dependencies:
+  tools: []
+policy:
+  allow_implicit_invocation: true

package/domains/product/locales/en/.agents/skills/saas-metrics/agents/qwen.json

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+{
+  "name": "saas-metrics",
+  "display_name": "SaaS Metrics",
+  "description": "B2B SaaS metrics — MRR/ARR, gross/net churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, Payback, Rule of 40, Magic Number",
+  "default_prompt": "Use $saas-metrics when the task relates to the skill \"SaaS Metrics\".",
+  "triggers": [
+    "saas-metrics",
+    "SaaS metrics",
+    "MRR",
+    "ARR",
+    "churn",
+    "LTV",
+    "CAC",
+    "NRR"
+  ],
+  "capabilities": [
+    "saas-metrics"
+  ],
+  "tools": [],
+  "implicit_invocation": true
+}

package/domains/product/locales/en/.agents/skills/saas-metrics/agents/skill.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+version: 1
+name: "saas-metrics"
+display_name: "SaaS Metrics"
+description: "B2B SaaS metrics — MRR/ARR, gross/net churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, Payback, Rule of 40, Magic Number"
+default_prompt: "Use $saas-metrics when the task relates to the skill \"SaaS Metrics (B2B)\"."
+triggers:
+  - "saas-metrics"
+  - "SaaS metrics"
+  - "MRR"
+  - "ARR"
+  - "churn"
+  - "LTV"
+  - "CAC"
+  - "NRR"
+capabilities:
+  - "saas-metrics"
+tools: []
+invocation:
+  explicit: true
+  implicit: true
+localization:
+  default_locale: "en"
+  available_locales:
+    - "en"