chainlesschain 0.166.90 → 0.166.92

package/src/lib/evolution/rrsi-native-group-statistics.js

@@ -0,0 +1,482 @@
+/** Native triangle statistics. Descriptive evidence never grants admission. */
+import { isProxy } from "node:util/types";
+import { verifyRrsiCampaign } from "./rrsi-contracts.js";
+import { normalizeRrsiNativeEvaluationBatch } from "./rrsi-native-evaluation-batch.js";
+import { captureRrsiNativeBatchEvidence } from "./rrsi-native-batch-evidence.js";
+import {
+  computeRrsiClusterEnvelopeInterval,
+  RRSI_BOUNDED_CLUSTER_METHOD,
+  RRSI_CLUSTER_ENVELOPE_METHOD,
+} from "./rrsi-group-statistics.js";
+import {
+  snapshotRrsiData,
+  rrsiExact,
+  rrsiBoolean,
+  rrsiInteger,
+  rrsiDigest,
+  rrsiCanonical,
+  rrsiHash,
+  rrsiEnvelope,
+  rrsiFail,
+} from "./rrsi-data.js";
+
+import { verifyRrsiNativeGroupStatisticsPlan } from "./rrsi-native-group-statistics-plan.js";
+export {
+  RRSI_NATIVE_GROUP_STATISTICS_PLAN_SCHEMA,
+  buildRrsiNativeGroupStatisticsPlan,
+  verifyRrsiNativeGroupStatisticsPlan,
+} from "./rrsi-native-group-statistics-plan.js";
+export const RRSI_NATIVE_GROUP_STATISTICS_REPORT_SCHEMA =
+  "chainlesschain.rrsi-native-group-statistics-report/v2";
+export const RRSI_NATIVE_GROUP_STATISTICS_PREREGISTERED_REPORT_SCHEMA =
+  "chainlesschain.rrsi-native-group-statistics-report/v3";
+const key = (...parts) => JSON.stringify(parts);
+const compare = (a, b) => (a < b ? -1 : a > b ? 1 : 0);
+
+function fields(input, names, label) {
+  if (
+    !input ||
+    isProxy(input) ||
+    Object.getPrototypeOf(input) !== Object.prototype ||
+    Reflect.ownKeys(input).length !== names.length
+  )
+    rrsiFail(`${label} requires plain own fields`);
+  return Object.fromEntries(
+    names.map((name) => {
+      const field = Object.getOwnPropertyDescriptor(input, name);
+      if (!field?.enumerable || !("value" in field))
+        rrsiFail(`${label} cannot use accessors`);
+      return [name, field.value];
+    }),
+  );
+}
+
+function captureChunks(input, maximum) {
+  if (
+    !input ||
+    isProxy(input) ||
+    !Array.isArray(input) ||
+    Object.getPrototypeOf(input) !== Array.prototype ||
+    input.length > maximum ||
+    Reflect.ownKeys(input).length !== input.length + 1
+  )
+    rrsiFail("native statistical chunks require a bounded dense list");
+  return Array.from({ length: input.length }, (_, index) => {
+    const field = Object.getOwnPropertyDescriptor(input, String(index));
+    if (!field?.enumerable || !("value" in field))
+      rrsiFail("native statistical chunks cannot use accessors");
+    // Each complete child retains the original per-document limits.
+    return snapshotRrsiData(field.value);
+  });
+}
+
+/** Plain row claims are useful for analysis and tests, but cannot authenticate themselves. */
+export function analyzeRrsiNativeGroupStatistics(input) {
+  const options = fields(
+    input,
+    ["campaign", "batch", "plan", "childRows"],
+    "native statistics analysis",
+  );
+  const campaign = verifyRrsiCampaign(options.campaign);
+  const batch = normalizeRrsiNativeEvaluationBatch(options.batch, campaign);
+  const plan = verifyRrsiNativeGroupStatisticsPlan(options.plan, {
+    campaign,
+    batch,
+  });
+  const chunks = captureChunks(options.childRows, batch.children.length);
+  const children = new Map(
+    batch.children.map((child) => [child.childId, child]),
+  );
+  const tasks = new Map(campaign.dataset.tasks.map((task) => [task.id, task]));
+  const seenChildren = new Set(),
+    rowClaims = new Map(),
+    receiptOwners = new Set(),
+    chunkIndex = new Map();
+  for (const chunk of chunks) {
+    rrsiExact(chunk, ["childId", "rows"], "native statistical child chunk");
+    const child = children.get(chunk.childId);
+    if (!child || seenChildren.has(chunk.childId) || !Array.isArray(chunk.rows))
+      rrsiFail(
+        "native statistical child is foreign, repeated or not a row list",
+      );
+    seenChildren.add(chunk.childId);
+    for (const row of chunk.rows) {
+      rrsiExact(
+        row,
+        [
+          "taskId",
+          "partition",
+          "seed",
+          "arm",
+          "reportedPass",
+          "securityViolations",
+          "permissionViolations",
+          "resultDigest",
+        ],
+        "native statistical row claim",
+      );
+      const task = tasks.get(row.taskId);
+      if (
+        !task ||
+        row.partition !== task.partition ||
+        !Object.hasOwn(
+          child.plannedObservationsPerArmByPartition,
+          row.partition,
+        ) ||
+        !Object.hasOwn(child.byArm, row.arm) ||
+        !plan.seeds.includes(row.seed)
+      )
+        rrsiFail(
+          "native statistical row changes task, partition, seed or arm scope",
+        );
+      rrsiBoolean(row.reportedPass, "reported native pass");
+      rrsiInteger(row.securityViolations, "native security violations");
+      rrsiInteger(row.permissionViolations, "native permission violations");
+      rrsiDigest(row.resultDigest, "native row result digest");
+      if (receiptOwners.has(row.resultDigest))
+        rrsiFail("one native row result cannot pay multiple observation slots");
+      receiptOwners.add(row.resultDigest);
+      const rowKey = key(
+        row.partition,
+        child.variant,
+        child.slotId,
+        row.taskId,
+        row.seed,
+        row.arm,
+        child.pairId,
+      );
+      if (rowClaims.has(rowKey))
+        rrsiFail("duplicate native statistical replica slot");
+      rowClaims.set(rowKey, row);
+    }
+    chunkIndex.set(chunk.childId, {
+      rowCount: chunk.rows.length,
+      rowClaimsDigest: rrsiHash(
+        "chainlesschain.rrsi-native-statistical-child-claims/v2",
+        [...chunk.rows].sort((a, b) =>
+          compare(rrsiCanonical(a), rrsiCanonical(b)),
+        ),
+      ),
+    });
+  }
+  const pairs = new Map();
+  for (const child of batch.children)
+    for (const arm of Object.keys(child.byArm))
+      for (const partition of Object.keys(
+        child.plannedObservationsPerArmByPartition,
+      )) {
+        const pairKey = key(partition, child.variant, child.slotId, arm);
+        let replicas = pairs.get(pairKey);
+        if (!replicas) pairs.set(pairKey, (replicas = []));
+        replicas.push(child.pairId);
+      }
+  for (const replicas of pairs.values())
+    if (replicas.length !== 2 || new Set(replicas).size !== 2)
+      rrsiFail(
+        "native statistical arm lacks its two fixed distinct pair replicas",
+      );
+
+  function summary(pool, variant, target, arm) {
+    const replicas = pairs.get(
+      key(pool.partition, variant, target.slotId, arm),
+    );
+    const taskScores = new Map();
+    let observed = 0,
+      successes = 0,
+      reportedPasses = 0,
+      securityViolations = 0,
+      permissionViolations = 0,
+      completeTaskMeans = 0;
+    for (const component of pool.components)
+      for (const taskId of component.taskIds) {
+        let complete = true,
+          taskScore = 0;
+        for (const seed of plan.seeds) {
+          let seedScore = 0;
+          for (const pairId of replicas) {
+            const row = rowClaims.get(
+              key(
+                pool.partition,
+                variant,
+                target.slotId,
+                taskId,
+                seed,
+                arm,
+                pairId,
+              ),
+            );
+            if (!row) {
+              complete = false;
+              continue;
+            }
+            observed++;
+            reportedPasses += Number(row.reportedPass);
+            securityViolations += row.securityViolations;
+            permissionViolations += row.permissionViolations;
+            const success = Number(
+              row.reportedPass &&
+                row.securityViolations === 0 &&
+                row.permissionViolations === 0,
+            );
+            successes += success;
+            seedScore += success;
+          }
+          taskScore += seedScore / replicas.length;
+        }
+        // Missing observations are never silently imputed or renormalized.
+        taskScores.set(taskId, complete ? taskScore / plan.seeds.length : null);
+        completeTaskMeans += Number(complete);
+      }
+    const planned = pool.taskCount * plan.seeds.length * 2;
+    return {
+      plannedActorObservations: planned,
+      observedRowClaims: observed,
+      missingActorObservations: planned - observed,
+      knownStrictPasses: successes,
+      knownReportedPasses: reportedPasses,
+      declaredSecurityViolations: securityViolations,
+      declaredPermissionViolations: permissionViolations,
+      completeTaskMeans,
+      meanStrictPassRate: observed === planned ? successes / planned : null,
+      taskScores,
+    };
+  }
+  const analyses = [],
+    summaries = [];
+  for (const pool of plan.pools)
+    for (const variant of plan.variants)
+      for (const target of plan.targets) {
+        const arms = new Map(
+          campaign.experiment.arms.map((arm) => [
+            arm,
+            summary(pool, variant, target, arm),
+          ]),
+        );
+        summaries.push(...arms.values());
+        for (const comparison of plan.comparisons) {
+          const left = arms.get(comparison.leftArm),
+            right = arms.get(comparison.rightArm);
+          const reasons = [];
+          if (left.missingActorObservations || right.missingActorObservations)
+            reasons.push("INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE");
+          if (pool.components.length < plan.minimumIndependentGroups)
+            reasons.push("INSUFFICIENT_INDEPENDENT_GROUPS");
+          if (!plan.bootstrapTailResolutionSufficient)
+            reasons.push("INSUFFICIENT_BOOTSTRAP_TAIL_RESOLUTION");
+          let interval = null;
+          if (!reasons.length)
+            interval = computeRrsiClusterEnvelopeInterval({
+              values: pool.components.map(
+                (component) =>
+                  component.taskIds.reduce(
+                    (sum, taskId) =>
+                      sum +
+                      left.taskScores.get(taskId) -
+                      right.taskScores.get(taskId),
+                    0,
+                  ) / component.taskCount,
+              ),
+              taskCounts: pool.components.map(
+                (component) => component.taskCount,
+              ),
+              alpha: plan.alphaPerHypothesis,
+              bootstrapSamples: plan.bootstrapSamples,
+              randomnessSeedDigest: rrsiHash(
+                "chainlesschain.rrsi-native-cluster-bootstrap-random/v2",
+                {
+                  randomnessCommitment: plan.randomnessCommitment,
+                  partition: pool.partition,
+                  target,
+                  variant,
+                  comparisonId: comparison.id,
+                  components: pool.components.map((component) => ({
+                    componentDigest: component.componentDigest,
+                    taskCount: component.taskCount,
+                  })),
+                },
+              ),
+            });
+          const publicSummary = (entry) =>
+            Object.fromEntries(
+              Object.entries(entry).filter(([name]) => name !== "taskScores"),
+            );
+          analyses.push({
+            partition: pool.partition,
+            variant,
+            ...target,
+            comparisonId: comparison.id,
+            leftArm: comparison.leftArm,
+            rightArm: comparison.rightArm,
+            plannedTaskCount: pool.taskCount,
+            independentDeclaredGroupCount: pool.components.length,
+            alpha: plan.alphaPerHypothesis,
+            left: publicSummary(left),
+            right: publicSummary(right),
+            meanDifference:
+              left.meanStrictPassRate === null ||
+              right.meanStrictPassRate === null
+                ? null
+                : left.meanStrictPassRate - right.meanStrictPassRate,
+            bootstrapInterval: interval?.bootstrapInterval ?? null,
+            boundedInterval: interval?.boundedInterval ?? null,
+            confidenceInterval: interval?.confidenceInterval ?? null,
+            status: reasons.length ? "hold" : "descriptive-complete",
+            reasons,
+          });
+        }
+      }
+  const planned = summaries.reduce(
+    (sum, entry) => sum + entry.plannedActorObservations,
+    0,
+  );
+  const observed = summaries.reduce(
+    (sum, entry) => sum + entry.observedRowClaims,
+    0,
+  );
+  const blockingReasons = [];
+  if (observed !== planned)
+    blockingReasons.push("INCOMPLETE_TRIANGLE_DENOMINATOR");
+  for (const reason of new Set(analyses.flatMap((entry) => entry.reasons)))
+    blockingReasons.push(reason);
+  blockingReasons.push(
+    "STATISTICAL_PROTOCOL_NOT_PREREGISTERED",
+    "STATISTICAL_PROTOCOL_UNVALIDATED",
+  );
+  const report = rrsiEnvelope(
+    RRSI_NATIVE_GROUP_STATISTICS_REPORT_SCHEMA,
+    "statisticsReportDigest",
+    {
+      statisticsPlanDigest: plan.statisticsPlanDigest,
+      campaignDigest: plan.campaignDigest,
+      batchDigest: plan.batchDigest,
+      rowSetDigest: rrsiHash(
+        "chainlesschain.rrsi-native-statistical-row-set/v2",
+        batch.children
+          .map((child) => ({
+            childId: child.childId,
+            ...(chunkIndex.get(child.childId) ?? {
+              rowCount: 0,
+              rowClaimsDigest: null,
+            }),
+          }))
+          .sort((a, b) => compare(a.childId, b.childId)),
+      ),
+      stage: plan.stage,
+      familyAlpha: plan.familyAlpha,
+      hypothesisCount: plan.hypothesisCount,
+      plannedActorObservations: planned,
+      observedRowClaims: observed,
+      missingActorObservations: planned - observed,
+      fullTriangleRowsPresent: observed === planned,
+      status:
+        analyses.some((entry) => entry.status === "hold") ||
+        observed !== planned
+          ? "hold"
+          : "descriptive-complete",
+      decision: "HOLD",
+      blockingReasons,
+      analyses,
+      aggregationMethod: plan.aggregationMethod,
+      successDefinition: plan.successDefinition,
+      manualRemediationMeasured: false,
+      intervalMethod: RRSI_CLUSTER_ENVELOPE_METHOD,
+      coverageGuaranteeSource: RRSI_BOUNDED_CLUSTER_METHOD,
+      conditionalOnIndependentBoundedClusters: true,
+      preObservationRegistrationVerified: false,
+      sourceIndependenceVerified: false,
+      resultAuthenticityVerified: false,
+      costEvidenceVerified: false,
+      statisticalProtocolValidated: false,
+      qualityVerdictVerified: false,
+    },
+  );
+  snapshotRrsiData(report);
+  return report;
+}
+
+/** Only a live branded census may supply authenticated final-receipt row chunks. */
+export function analyzeRrsiNativeBatchGroupStatistics(input) {
+  const options = fields(
+    input,
+    ["batchEvidence", "plan"],
+    "native census statistics",
+  );
+  const captured = captureRrsiNativeBatchEvidence(options.batchEvidence);
+  captured.assertCurrentFreshness();
+  const childRows = captured.batch.children.flatMap((child) => {
+    const block = captured.childEvidence(child.childId);
+    return block?.rows
+      ? [
+          {
+            childId: child.childId,
+            rows: block.rows.map((row) => ({
+              taskId: row.rrsiTaskId,
+              partition: row.rrsiPartition,
+              seed: row.seed,
+              arm: row.arm,
+              reportedPass: row.reportedPass,
+              securityViolations: row.securityViolations,
+              permissionViolations: row.permissionViolations,
+              resultDigest: row.rowDigest,
+            })),
+          },
+        ]
+      : [];
+  });
+  const descriptive = analyzeRrsiNativeGroupStatistics({
+    campaign: captured.campaign,
+    batch: captured.batch,
+    plan: options.plan,
+    childRows,
+  });
+  const core = Object.fromEntries(
+    Object.entries(descriptive).filter(
+      ([name]) => !["schema", "statisticsReportDigest"].includes(name),
+    ),
+  );
+  const registration = captured.statisticsRegistration;
+  if (
+    registration &&
+    registration.statisticsPlanDigest !== options.plan.statisticsPlanDigest
+  )
+    rrsiFail("native statistics report replaces the preregistered plan");
+  const blockingReasons = [
+    ...new Set([
+      ...descriptive.blockingReasons,
+      ...captured.evidence.blockingReasons,
+    ]),
+  ].filter(
+    (reason) =>
+      !registration || reason !== "STATISTICAL_PROTOCOL_NOT_PREREGISTERED",
+  );
+  const result = rrsiEnvelope(
+    registration
+      ? RRSI_NATIVE_GROUP_STATISTICS_PREREGISTERED_REPORT_SCHEMA
+      : RRSI_NATIVE_GROUP_STATISTICS_REPORT_SCHEMA,
+    "statisticsReportDigest",
+    {
+      ...core,
+      nativeBatchEvidenceDigest: captured.evidence.batchEvidenceDigest,
+      auditHead: captured.evidence.auditHead,
+      historicalBatchSnapshotOnly: true,
+      presentedFinalReceiptRowsAuthenticated: true,
+      underlyingExecutionReceiptsReverified: false,
+      originalNativeGateVetoChildIds: captured.evidence.nativeGateVetoChildIds,
+      blockingReasons,
+      ...(registration
+        ? {
+            statisticsRegistration: captured.evidence.statisticsRegistration,
+            preObservationRegistrationVerified: true,
+            controlledHistoryRegistrationOrderVerified: true,
+            underlyingObservationTimeVerified: false,
+            statisticalFamilyScope: "single-frozen-batch-and-stage-all-targets",
+            crossSelectionQueryErrorRateControlled: false,
+          }
+        : {}),
+    },
+  );
+  snapshotRrsiData(result);
+  // Interval computation does not extend the signed receipt validity window.
+  captured.assertCurrentFreshness();
+  return result;
+}