chainlesschain 0.166.90 → 0.166.92

package/src/lib/evolution/rrsi-group-statistics.js

@@ -0,0 +1,553 @@
+/** Versioned descriptive statistics. Conditional bounds are not admission. */
+import { verifyRrsiCampaign, RRSI_GROUP_DIMENSIONS } from "./rrsi-contracts.js";
+import {
+  snapshotRrsiData,
+  rrsiExact,
+  rrsiDigest,
+  rrsiInteger,
+  rrsiFinite,
+  rrsiBoolean,
+  rrsiId,
+  rrsiCanonical,
+  rrsiHash,
+  rrsiEnvelope,
+  freezeRrsiData,
+  rrsiFail,
+} from "./rrsi-data.js";
+
+export const RRSI_GROUP_STATISTICS_PLAN_SCHEMA =
+  "chainlesschain.rrsi-group-statistics-plan/v1";
+export const RRSI_GROUP_STATISTICS_REPORT_SCHEMA =
+  "chainlesschain.rrsi-group-statistics-report/v1";
+export const RRSI_BOUNDED_CLUSTER_METHOD =
+  "weighted-independent-bounded-clusters-hoeffding-two-sided/v1";
+export const RRSI_CLUSTER_ENVELOPE_METHOD =
+  "outer-envelope-of-cluster-bootstrap-and-conditional-bounded-interval/v1";
+const STAGES = {
+  training: ["train"],
+  selection: ["select"],
+  generalization: ["gate-validation", "gate-test", "audit"],
+};
+const MAX_RESAMPLE_OPERATIONS = 50_000_000;
+const OUTCOMES = ["succeeded", "failed", "cancelled", "not-started", "unknown"];
+
+/** Pure component projection; callers verify their campaign first. */
+export function buildRrsiGroupStatisticsSourceComponents(campaign, partition) {
+  const tasks = campaign.dataset.tasks.filter(
+    (task) => task.partition === partition,
+  );
+  const parents = tasks.map((_, index) => index);
+  const find = (index) => {
+    while (parents[index] !== index) {
+      parents[index] = parents[parents[index]];
+      index = parents[index];
+    }
+    return index;
+  };
+  const owners = new Map();
+  tasks.forEach((task, index) => {
+    for (const dimension of RRSI_GROUP_DIMENSIONS) {
+      const key = `${dimension}:${task.groups[dimension]}`;
+      if (owners.has(key)) parents[find(index)] = find(owners.get(key));
+      else owners.set(key, index);
+    }
+  });
+  const grouped = new Map();
+  tasks.forEach((task, index) => {
+    const root = find(index);
+    if (!grouped.has(root)) grouped.set(root, []);
+    grouped.get(root).push(task);
+  });
+  return [...grouped.values()]
+    .map((members) => {
+      const ordered = members.sort((left, right) =>
+        left.contentDigest < right.contentDigest ? -1 : 1,
+      );
+      return {
+        componentDigest: rrsiHash(
+          "chainlesschain.rrsi-statistical-component/v1",
+          {
+            partition,
+            sources: ordered.map((task) => ({
+              contentDigest: task.contentDigest,
+              groups: task.groups,
+            })),
+          },
+        ),
+        taskIds: ordered.map((task) => task.id),
+        taskCount: ordered.length,
+        weight: ordered.length / tasks.length,
+      };
+    })
+    .sort((left, right) =>
+      left.componentDigest < right.componentDigest ? -1 : 1,
+    );
+}
+
+/** Weights, hypotheses and population all derive before observing outcomes. */
+export function buildRrsiGroupStatisticsPlan(input) {
+  const value = snapshotRrsiData(input);
+  rrsiExact(
+    value,
+    ["campaign", "stage", "versions"],
+    "group statistics plan input",
+  );
+  const campaign = verifyRrsiCampaign(value.campaign);
+  if (!Object.hasOwn(STAGES, value.stage)) rrsiFail("unknown statistics stage");
+  rrsiExact(
+    value.versions,
+    campaign.experiment.arms,
+    "frozen statistical arm artifacts",
+  );
+  for (const arm of campaign.experiment.arms)
+    rrsiDigest(value.versions[arm], `${arm} artifact digest`);
+  const partitions = STAGES[value.stage];
+  const variants =
+    value.stage === "training"
+      ? ["clean"]
+      : ["clean", ...campaign.experiment.perturbations];
+  if (campaign.experiment.perturbations.includes("clean"))
+    rrsiFail("clean is a reserved statistical variant");
+  const comparisons = campaign.experiment.comparisons.map((id) => {
+    const pair = id.split("-vs-");
+    if (
+      pair.length !== 2 ||
+      pair[0] === pair[1] ||
+      pair.some((arm) => !campaign.experiment.arms.includes(arm))
+    )
+      rrsiFail("statistics comparison has no declared arm interpretation");
+    return { id, leftArm: pair[0], rightArm: pair[1] };
+  });
+  const pools = partitions.map((partition) => ({
+    partition,
+    partitionDigest: campaign.dataset.pools[partition].partitionDigest,
+    taskCount: campaign.dataset.pools[partition].taskCount,
+    components: buildRrsiGroupStatisticsSourceComponents(campaign, partition),
+  }));
+  const hypothesisCount =
+    comparisons.length * partitions.length * variants.length;
+  const alphaPerHypothesis = campaign.experiment.familyAlpha / hypothesisCount;
+  const tailReplicates =
+    (campaign.experiment.bootstrapSamples * alphaPerHypothesis) / 2;
+  const resampleOperations =
+    pools.reduce((sum, pool) => sum + pool.components.length, 0) *
+    variants.length *
+    comparisons.length *
+    campaign.experiment.bootstrapSamples;
+  if (resampleOperations > MAX_RESAMPLE_OPERATIONS)
+    rrsiFail(
+      "frozen statistical resampling exceeds operation limit",
+      "CC_RRSI_BUDGET_EXCEEDED",
+    );
+  return rrsiEnvelope(
+    RRSI_GROUP_STATISTICS_PLAN_SCHEMA,
+    "statisticsPlanDigest",
+    {
+      campaignDigest: campaign.campaignDigest,
+      parentReleaseDigest: campaign.parentReleaseDigest,
+      stage: value.stage,
+      versions: value.versions,
+      seeds: campaign.experiment.seeds,
+      variants,
+      comparisons,
+      pools,
+      familyAlpha: campaign.experiment.familyAlpha,
+      hypothesisCount,
+      alphaPerHypothesis,
+      bootstrapSamples: campaign.experiment.bootstrapSamples,
+      bootstrapTailReplicates: tailReplicates,
+      bootstrapTailResolutionSufficient: tailReplicates >= 25,
+      randomnessCommitment: campaign.experiment.randomnessCommitment,
+      resamplingUnit: "task-group-component",
+      bootstrapMethod: "task-weighted-cluster-percentile/v1",
+      boundedMethod: RRSI_BOUNDED_CLUSTER_METHOD,
+      minimumIndependentGroups: campaign.policy.thresholds.minIndependentGroups,
+      stoppingRule: "fixed-full-denominator-no-interim-acceptance",
+      resampleOperations,
+      sourceIndependenceVerified: false,
+      perturbationSemanticsVerified: false,
+    },
+  );
+}
+
+export function verifyRrsiGroupStatisticsPlan(plan, context) {
+  const rebuilt = buildRrsiGroupStatisticsPlan(context);
+  if (rrsiCanonical(snapshotRrsiData(plan)) !== rrsiCanonical(rebuilt))
+    rrsiFail("group statistics plan or frozen protocol differs");
+  return rebuilt;
+}
+
+function boundedInterval(values, counts, alpha) {
+  const count = counts.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0);
+  const weights = counts.map((value) => value / count);
+  const squaredWeightSum = weights.reduce(
+    (sum, value) => sum + value * value,
+    0,
+  );
+  const mean = Math.max(
+    -1,
+    Math.min(
+      1,
+      values.reduce((sum, value, index) => sum + value * counts[index], 0) /
+        count,
+    ),
+  );
+  const halfWidth = Math.sqrt(2 * squaredWeightSum * Math.log(2 / alpha));
+  return {
+    mean,
+    lower: Math.max(-1, mean - halfWidth),
+    upper: Math.min(1, mean + halfWidth),
+    halfWidth,
+    effectiveGroupCount: 1 / squaredWeightSum,
+  };
+}
+
+/** Mathematical primitive only; caller must preregister weights and prove independence. */
+export function computeRrsiBoundedClusterInterval(input) {
+  const value = snapshotRrsiData(input);
+  rrsiExact(
+    value,
+    ["values", "taskCounts", "alpha"],
+    "conditional cluster interval",
+  );
+  if (
+    !Array.isArray(value.values) ||
+    value.values.length < 1 ||
+    !Array.isArray(value.taskCounts) ||
+    value.values.length !== value.taskCounts.length
+  )
+    rrsiFail("cluster values and frozen task counts differ");
+  value.values.forEach((entry) => rrsiFinite(entry, "cluster delta", -1, 1));
+  value.taskCounts.forEach((entry) =>
+    rrsiInteger(entry, "cluster task count", 1, 5000),
+  );
+  if (value.taskCounts.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry, 0) > 5000)
+    rrsiFail("cluster population exceeds task bound");
+  rrsiFinite(value.alpha, "cluster alpha", 0.00000001, 0.05);
+  return freezeRrsiData({
+    method: RRSI_BOUNDED_CLUSTER_METHOD,
+    ...boundedInterval(value.values, value.taskCounts, value.alpha),
+    conditionalOnIndependentBoundedClusters: true,
+    independenceVerified: false,
+    qualifiesForPromotion: false,
+  });
+}
+
+function randomFromDigest(digest) {
+  let state = Number.parseInt(digest.slice(7, 15), 16) || 0x6d2b79f5;
+  return () => {
+    state ^= state << 13;
+    state ^= state >>> 17;
+    state ^= state << 5;
+    return (state >>> 0) / 0x1_0000_0000;
+  };
+}
+
+function quantile(sorted, fraction) {
+  const index = (sorted.length - 1) * fraction;
+  const lower = Math.floor(index),
+    upper = Math.ceil(index);
+  return sorted[lower] + (sorted[upper] - sorted[lower]) * (index - lower);
+}
+
+function clusterEnvelope(values, counts, alpha, bootstrapSamples, seedDigest) {
+  const random = randomFromDigest(seedDigest);
+  const totals = values.map((value, index) => value * counts[index]);
+  const samples = new Array(bootstrapSamples);
+  for (let sample = 0; sample < samples.length; sample++) {
+    let sum = 0,
+      count = 0;
+    for (let pick = 0; pick < values.length; pick++) {
+      const index = Math.floor(random() * values.length);
+      sum += totals[index];
+      count += counts[index];
+    }
+    samples[sample] = sum / count;
+  }
+  samples.sort((left, right) => left - right);
+  const bootstrapInterval = {
+    lower: quantile(samples, alpha / 2),
+    upper: quantile(samples, 1 - alpha / 2),
+  };
+  const bounded = boundedInterval(values, counts, alpha);
+  return {
+    bootstrapInterval,
+    boundedInterval: bounded,
+    confidenceInterval: {
+      mean: bounded.mean,
+      lower: Math.min(bounded.lower, bootstrapInterval.lower),
+      upper: Math.max(bounded.upper, bootstrapInterval.upper),
+    },
+  };
+}
+
+/** The same direct resampling method used by analysis and synthetic simulation. */
+export function computeRrsiClusterEnvelopeInterval(input) {
+  const value = snapshotRrsiData(input);
+  rrsiExact(
+    value,
+    [
+      "values",
+      "taskCounts",
+      "alpha",
+      "bootstrapSamples",
+      "randomnessSeedDigest",
+    ],
+    "cluster outer envelope",
+  );
+  computeRrsiBoundedClusterInterval({
+    values: value.values,
+    taskCounts: value.taskCounts,
+    alpha: value.alpha,
+  });
+  rrsiInteger(value.bootstrapSamples, "bootstrap samples", 1000, 1_000_000);
+  rrsiDigest(value.randomnessSeedDigest, "bootstrap seed");
+  if ((value.bootstrapSamples * value.alpha) / 2 < 25)
+    rrsiFail("insufficient bootstrap tail resolution");
+  if (value.values.length * value.bootstrapSamples > MAX_RESAMPLE_OPERATIONS)
+    rrsiFail(
+      "cluster bootstrap exceeds operation limit",
+      "CC_RRSI_BUDGET_EXCEEDED",
+    );
+  return freezeRrsiData({
+    method: RRSI_CLUSTER_ENVELOPE_METHOD,
+    ...clusterEnvelope(
+      value.values,
+      value.taskCounts,
+      value.alpha,
+      value.bootstrapSamples,
+      value.randomnessSeedDigest,
+    ),
+    independenceVerified: false,
+    qualifiesForPromotion: false,
+  });
+}
+
+function slotKey(taskId, seed, arm, variant) {
+  return JSON.stringify([taskId, seed, arm, variant]);
+}
+
+/** Input rows are descriptive claims until an independent adapter authenticates them. */
+export function analyzeRrsiGroupStatistics(input) {
+  const value = snapshotRrsiData(input);
+  rrsiExact(value, ["campaign", "plan", "rows"], "group statistics analysis");
+  const plan = verifyRrsiGroupStatisticsPlan(value.plan, {
+    campaign: value.campaign,
+    stage: value.plan.stage,
+    versions: value.plan.versions,
+  });
+  if (!Array.isArray(value.rows))
+    rrsiFail("statistical rows must be a bounded list");
+  const tasks = new Map(
+    plan.pools.flatMap((pool) =>
+      pool.components.flatMap((group) =>
+        group.taskIds.map((id) => [id, pool.partition]),
+      ),
+    ),
+  );
+  const rows = new Map(),
+    receiptOwners = new Map();
+  for (const row of value.rows) {
+    rrsiExact(
+      row,
+      [
+        "taskId",
+        "seed",
+        "arm",
+        "versionDigest",
+        "variant",
+        "outcome",
+        "passed",
+        "manualRemediation",
+        "resultDigest",
+      ],
+      "statistical slot row",
+    );
+    rrsiId(row.taskId, "statistical task ID");
+    rrsiInteger(row.seed, "statistical seed");
+    if (
+      !tasks.has(row.taskId) ||
+      !plan.seeds.includes(row.seed) ||
+      !Object.hasOwn(plan.versions, row.arm) ||
+      !plan.variants.includes(row.variant) ||
+      row.versionDigest !== plan.versions[row.arm]
+    )
+      rrsiFail(
+        "statistical row differs from frozen task, seed, variant or version",
+      );
+    if (!OUTCOMES.includes(row.outcome))
+      rrsiFail("unknown statistical outcome");
+    if (row.passed !== null) rrsiBoolean(row.passed, "statistical success");
+    rrsiBoolean(row.manualRemediation, "manual remediation");
+    if (row.outcome !== "succeeded" && row.passed === true)
+      rrsiFail("non-successful slot cannot report success");
+    const key = slotKey(row.taskId, row.seed, row.arm, row.variant);
+    if (rows.has(key)) rrsiFail("duplicate statistical slot");
+    if (row.resultDigest !== null) {
+      rrsiDigest(row.resultDigest, "result evidence digest");
+      if (receiptOwners.has(row.resultDigest))
+        rrsiFail("one result receipt cannot pay multiple statistical slots");
+      receiptOwners.set(row.resultDigest, key);
+    }
+    rows.set(key, row);
+  }
+  function summary(pool, arm, variant) {
+    let terminal = 0,
+      passed = 0,
+      manual = 0,
+      missing = 0;
+    const taskScores = new Map();
+    for (const group of pool.components)
+      for (const id of group.taskIds) {
+        let taskPasses = 0;
+        for (const seed of plan.seeds) {
+          const row = rows.get(slotKey(id, seed, arm, variant));
+          const complete =
+            row &&
+            row.resultDigest !== null &&
+            row.outcome !== "unknown" &&
+            (row.outcome !== "succeeded" || row.passed !== null);
+          if (!complete) {
+            missing++;
+            continue;
+          }
+          terminal++;
+          if (row.manualRemediation) manual++;
+          if (
+            row.outcome === "succeeded" &&
+            row.passed &&
+            !row.manualRemediation
+          ) {
+            passed++;
+            taskPasses++;
+          }
+        }
+        taskScores.set(id, taskPasses / plan.seeds.length);
+      }
+    return {
+      plannedSlots: pool.taskCount * plan.seeds.length,
+      declaredTerminalSlots: terminal,
+      strictSuccessSlots: passed,
+      manualRemediationSlots: manual,
+      missingSlots: missing,
+      strictCompletionRate: passed / (pool.taskCount * plan.seeds.length),
+      taskScores,
+    };
+  }
+  const analyses = [];
+  for (const pool of plan.pools)
+    for (const variant of plan.variants) {
+      const summaries = new Map(
+        Object.keys(plan.versions).map((arm) => [
+          arm,
+          summary(pool, arm, variant),
+        ]),
+      );
+      for (const comparison of plan.comparisons) {
+        const left = summaries.get(comparison.leftArm),
+          right = summaries.get(comparison.rightArm);
+        const reasons = [];
+        if (left.missingSlots || right.missingSlots)
+          reasons.push("INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE");
+        if (pool.components.length < plan.minimumIndependentGroups)
+          reasons.push("INSUFFICIENT_INDEPENDENT_GROUPS");
+        if (!plan.bootstrapTailResolutionSufficient)
+          reasons.push("INSUFFICIENT_BOOTSTRAP_TAIL_RESOLUTION");
+        let bootstrapInterval = null,
+          bounded = null,
+          confidenceInterval = null;
+        if (!reasons.length) {
+          const totals = pool.components.map((group) =>
+            group.taskIds.reduce(
+              (sum, id) =>
+                sum + left.taskScores.get(id) - right.taskScores.get(id),
+              0,
+            ),
+          );
+          const interval = clusterEnvelope(
+            totals.map((sum, index) => sum / pool.components[index].taskCount),
+            pool.components.map((group) => group.taskCount),
+            plan.alphaPerHypothesis,
+            plan.bootstrapSamples,
+            // Repeat count, caller ordering and task IDs cannot change the RNG.
+            rrsiHash("chainlesschain.rrsi-cluster-bootstrap-random/v1", {
+              randomnessCommitment: plan.randomnessCommitment,
+              partition: pool.partition,
+              components: pool.components.map((group) => ({
+                componentDigest: group.componentDigest,
+                taskCount: group.taskCount,
+              })),
+            }),
+          );
+          bootstrapInterval = interval.bootstrapInterval;
+          bounded = interval.boundedInterval;
+          confidenceInterval = interval.confidenceInterval;
+        }
+        const publicSummary = (entry) =>
+          Object.fromEntries(
+            Object.entries(entry).filter(([key]) => key !== "taskScores"),
+          );
+        analyses.push({
+          partition: pool.partition,
+          variant,
+          comparisonId: comparison.id,
+          leftArm: comparison.leftArm,
+          rightArm: comparison.rightArm,
+          plannedTaskCount: pool.taskCount,
+          independentDeclaredGroupCount: pool.components.length,
+          alpha: plan.alphaPerHypothesis,
+          left: publicSummary(left),
+          right: publicSummary(right),
+          conservativeDifference: {
+            lower:
+              (left.strictSuccessSlots -
+                right.strictSuccessSlots -
+                right.missingSlots) /
+              left.plannedSlots,
+            upper:
+              (left.strictSuccessSlots +
+                left.missingSlots -
+                right.strictSuccessSlots) /
+              left.plannedSlots,
+          },
+          bootstrapInterval,
+          boundedInterval: bounded,
+          confidenceInterval,
+          status: reasons.length ? "hold" : "descriptive-complete",
+          reasons,
+        });
+      }
+    }
+  return rrsiEnvelope(
+    RRSI_GROUP_STATISTICS_REPORT_SCHEMA,
+    "statisticsReportDigest",
+    {
+      statisticsPlanDigest: plan.statisticsPlanDigest,
+      campaignDigest: plan.campaignDigest,
+      rowSetDigest: rrsiHash(
+        "chainlesschain.rrsi-statistical-slot-claims/v1",
+        [...rows.values()].sort((a, b) =>
+          slotKey(a.taskId, a.seed, a.arm, a.variant) <
+          slotKey(b.taskId, b.seed, b.arm, b.variant)
+            ? -1
+            : 1,
+        ),
+      ),
+      stage: plan.stage,
+      familyAlpha: plan.familyAlpha,
+      hypothesisCount: plan.hypothesisCount,
+      status: analyses.some((entry) => entry.status === "hold")
+        ? "hold"
+        : "descriptive-complete",
+      analyses,
+      intervalMethod: RRSI_CLUSTER_ENVELOPE_METHOD,
+      coverageGuaranteeSource: RRSI_BOUNDED_CLUSTER_METHOD,
+      conditionalOnIndependentBoundedClusters: true,
+      sourceIndependenceVerified: false,
+      resultAuthenticityVerified: false,
+      costEvidenceVerified: false,
+      statisticalProtocolValidated: false,
+      qualityVerdictVerified: false,
+    },
+  );
+}