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agentvibes 2.13.7 → 2.13.8

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package/.bmad/bmm/workflows/1-analysis/research/instructions-market.md DELETED Viewed

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-# Market Research Workflow Instructions
-<critical>The workflow execution engine is governed by: {project_root}/.bmad/core/tasks/workflow.xml</critical>
-<critical>You MUST have already loaded and processed: {installed_path}/workflow.yaml</critical>
-<critical>This workflow uses ADAPTIVE FACILITATION - adjust your communication style based on {user_skill_level}</critical>
-<critical>This is a HIGHLY INTERACTIVE workflow - collaborate with user throughout, don't just gather info and disappear</critical>
-<critical>Web research is MANDATORY - use WebSearch tool with {{current_year}} for all market intelligence gathering</critical>
-<critical>Communicate all responses in {communication_language} and tailor to {user_skill_level}</critical>
-<critical>Generate all documents in {document_output_language}</critical>
-<critical>🚨 ANTI-HALLUCINATION PROTOCOL - MANDATORY 🚨</critical>
-<critical>NEVER invent market data - if you cannot find reliable data, explicitly state: "I could not find verified data for [X]"</critical>
-<critical>EVERY statistic, market size, growth rate, or competitive claim MUST have a cited source with URL</critical>
-<critical>For CRITICAL claims (TAM/SAM/SOM, market size, growth rates), require 2+ independent sources that agree</critical>
-<critical>When data sources conflict (e.g., different market size estimates), present ALL estimates with sources and explain variance</critical>
-<critical>Mark data confidence: [Verified - 2+ sources], [Single source - verify], [Estimated - low confidence]</critical>
-<critical>Clearly label: FACT (sourced data), ANALYSIS (your interpretation), PROJECTION (forecast/speculation)</critical>
-<critical>After each WebSearch, extract and store source URLs - include them in the report</critical>
-<critical>If a claim seems suspicious or too convenient, STOP and cross-verify with additional searches</critical>
-<critical>⚠️ CHECKPOINT PROTOCOL: After EVERY <template-output> tag, you MUST follow workflow.xml substep 2c: SAVE content to file immediately → SHOW checkpoint separator (━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━) → DISPLAY generated content → PRESENT options [a]Advanced Elicitation/[c]Continue/[p]Party-Mode/[y]YOLO → WAIT for user response. Never batch saves or skip checkpoints.</critical>
-<!-- IDE-INJECT-POINT: market-research-subagents -->
-<workflow>
-<step n="1" goal="Discover research needs and scope collaboratively">
-<action>Welcome {user_name} warmly. Position yourself as their collaborative research partner who will:
-- Gather live {{current_year}} market data
-- Share findings progressively throughout
-- Help make sense of what we discover together
-Ask what they're building and what market questions they need answered.
-</action>
-<action>Through natural conversation, discover:
-- The product/service and current stage
-- Their burning questions (what they REALLY need to know)
-- Context and urgency (fundraising? launch decision? pivot?)
-- Existing knowledge vs. uncertainties
-- Desired depth (gauge from their needs, don't ask them to choose)
-Adapt your approach: If uncertain → help them think it through. If detailed → dig deeper.
-Collaboratively define scope:
-- Markets/segments to focus on
-- Geographic boundaries
-- Critical questions vs. nice-to-have
-  </action>
-<action>Reflect understanding back to confirm you're aligned on what matters.</action>
-<template-output>product_name</template-output>
-<template-output>product_description</template-output>
-<template-output>research_objectives</template-output>
-<template-output>research_scope</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="2" goal="Market Definition and Boundaries">
-<action>Help the user precisely define the market scope</action>
-Work with the user to establish:
-1. **Market Category Definition**
-   - Primary category/industry
-   - Adjacent or overlapping markets
-   - Where this fits in the value chain
-2. **Geographic Scope**
-   - Global, regional, or country-specific?
-   - Primary markets vs. expansion markets
-   - Regulatory considerations by region
-3. **Customer Segment Boundaries**
-   - B2B, B2C, or B2B2C?
-   - Primary vs. secondary segments
-   - Segment size estimates
-<ask>Should we include adjacent markets in the TAM calculation? This could significantly increase market size but may be less immediately addressable.</ask>
-<template-output>market_definition</template-output>
-<template-output>geographic_scope</template-output>
-<template-output>segment_boundaries</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="3" goal="Gather live market intelligence collaboratively">
-<critical>This step REQUIRES WebSearch tool usage - gather CURRENT data from {{current_year}}</critical>
-<critical>Share findings as you go - make this collaborative, not a black box</critical>
-<action>Let {user_name} know you're searching for current {{market_category}} market data: size, growth, analyst reports, recent trends. Tell them you'll share what you find in a few minutes and review it together.</action>
-<step n="3a" title="Search for market size and industry data">
-<action>Conduct systematic web searches using WebSearch tool:
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} market size {{geographic_scope}} {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} industry report Gartner Forrester IDC {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} market growth rate CAGR forecast {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} market trends {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} TAM SAM market opportunity {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-</action>
-<action>Share findings WITH SOURCES including URLs and dates. Ask if it aligns with their expectations.</action>
-<action>CRITICAL - Validate data before proceeding:
-- Multiple sources with similar figures?
-- Recent sources ({{current_year}} or within 1-2 years)?
-- Credible sources (Gartner, Forrester, govt data, reputable pubs)?
-- Conflicts? Note explicitly, search for more sources, mark [Low Confidence]
-  </action>
-<action if="user_has_questions">Explore surprising data points together</action>
-<template-output>sources_market_size</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="3b" title="Search for recent news and developments" optional="true">
-<action>Search for recent market developments:
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} news {{current_year}} funding acquisitions</WebSearch>
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} recent developments {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} regulatory changes {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-</action>
-<action>Share noteworthy findings:
-"I found some interesting recent developments:
-{{key_news_highlights}}
-Anything here surprise you or confirm what you suspected?"
-</action>
-</step>
-<step n="3c" title="Optional: Government and academic sources" optional="true">
-<action if="research needs high credibility">Search for authoritative sources:
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} government statistics census data {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-<WebSearch>{{market_category}} academic research white papers {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-</action>
-</step>
-<template-output>market_intelligence_raw</template-output>
-<template-output>key_data_points</template-output>
-<template-output>source_credibility_notes</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="4" goal="TAM, SAM, SOM Calculations">
-<action>Calculate market sizes using multiple methodologies for triangulation</action>
-<critical>Use actual data gathered in previous steps, not hypothetical numbers</critical>
-<step n="4a" title="TAM Calculation">
-**Method 1: Top-Down Approach**
-- Start with total industry size from research
-- Apply relevant filters and segments
-- Show calculation: Industry Size × Relevant Percentage
-**Method 2: Bottom-Up Approach**
-- Number of potential customers × Average revenue per customer
-- Build from unit economics
-**Method 3: Value Theory Approach**
-- Value created × Capturable percentage
-- Based on problem severity and alternative costs
-<ask>Which TAM calculation method seems most credible given our data? Should we use multiple methods and triangulate?</ask>
-<template-output>tam_calculation</template-output>
-<template-output>tam_methodology</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="4b" title="SAM Calculation">
-<action>Calculate Serviceable Addressable Market</action>
-Apply constraints to TAM:
-- Geographic limitations (markets you can serve)
-- Regulatory restrictions
-- Technical requirements (e.g., internet penetration)
-- Language/cultural barriers
-- Current business model limitations
-SAM = TAM × Serviceable Percentage
-Show the calculation with clear assumptions.
-<template-output>sam_calculation</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="4c" title="SOM Calculation">
-<action>Calculate realistic market capture</action>
-Consider competitive dynamics:
-- Current market share of competitors
-- Your competitive advantages
-- Resource constraints
-- Time to market considerations
-- Customer acquisition capabilities
-Create 3 scenarios:
-1. Conservative (1-2% market share)
-2. Realistic (3-5% market share)
-3. Optimistic (5-10% market share)
-<template-output>som_scenarios</template-output>
-</step>
-</step>
-<step n="5" goal="Customer Segment Deep Dive">
-<action>Develop detailed understanding of target customers</action>
-<step n="5a" title="Segment Identification" repeat="for-each-segment">
-For each major segment, research and define:
-**Demographics/Firmographics:**
-- Size and scale characteristics
-- Geographic distribution
-- Industry/vertical (for B2B)
-**Psychographics:**
-- Values and priorities
-- Decision-making process
-- Technology adoption patterns
-**Behavioral Patterns:**
-- Current solutions used
-- Purchasing frequency
-- Budget allocation
-<template-output>segment*profile*{{segment_number}}</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="5b" title="Jobs-to-be-Done Framework">
-<action>Apply JTBD framework to understand customer needs</action>
-For primary segment, identify:
-**Functional Jobs:**
-- Main tasks to accomplish
-- Problems to solve
-- Goals to achieve
-**Emotional Jobs:**
-- Feelings sought
-- Anxieties to avoid
-- Status desires
-**Social Jobs:**
-- How they want to be perceived
-- Group dynamics
-- Peer influences
-<ask>Would you like to conduct actual customer interviews or surveys to validate these jobs? (We can create an interview guide)</ask>
-<template-output>jobs_to_be_done</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="5c" title="Willingness to Pay Analysis">
-<action>Research and estimate pricing sensitivity</action>
-Analyze:
-- Current spending on alternatives
-- Budget allocation for this category
-- Value perception indicators
-- Price points of substitutes
-<template-output>pricing_analysis</template-output>
-</step>
-</step>
-<step n="6" goal="Understand the competitive landscape">
-<action>Ask if they know their main competitors or if you should search for them.</action>
-<step n="6a" title="Discover competitors together">
-<action if="user doesn't know competitors">Search for competitors:
-<WebSearch>{{product_category}} competitors {{geographic_scope}} {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-<WebSearch>{{product_category}} alternatives comparison {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-<WebSearch>top {{product_category}} companies {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
-</action>
-<action>Present findings. Ask them to pick the 3-5 that matter most (most concerned about or curious to understand).</action>
-</step>
-<step n="6b" title="Research each competitor together" repeat="for-each-selected-competitor">
-<action>For each competitor, search for:
-- Company overview, product features
-- Pricing model
-- Funding and recent news
-- Customer reviews and ratings
-Use {{current_year}} in all searches.
-</action>
-<action>Share findings with sources. Ask what jumps out and if it matches expectations.</action>
-<action if="user has follow-up questions">Dig deeper based on their interests</action>
-<template-output>competitor-analysis-{{competitor_name}}</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="6c" title="Competitive Positioning Map">
-<action>Create positioning analysis</action>
-Map competitors on key dimensions:
-- Price vs. Value
-- Feature completeness vs. Ease of use
-- Market segment focus
-- Technology approach
-- Business model
-Identify:
-- Gaps in the market
-- Over-served areas
-- Differentiation opportunities
-<template-output>competitive_positioning</template-output>
-</step>
-</step>
-<step n="7" goal="Industry Forces Analysis">
-<action>Apply Porter's Five Forces framework</action>
-<critical>Use specific evidence from research, not generic assessments</critical>
-Analyze each force with concrete examples:
-<step n="7a" title="Supplier Power">
-Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
-- Key suppliers and dependencies
-- Switching costs
-- Concentration of suppliers
-- Forward integration threat
-</step>
-<step n="7b" title="Buyer Power">
-Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
-- Customer concentration
-- Price sensitivity
-- Switching costs for customers
-- Backward integration threat
-</step>
-<step n="7c" title="Competitive Rivalry">
-Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
-- Number and strength of competitors
-- Industry growth rate
-- Exit barriers
-- Differentiation levels
-</step>
-<step n="7d" title="Threat of New Entry">
-Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
-- Capital requirements
-- Regulatory barriers
-- Network effects
-- Brand loyalty
-</step>
-<step n="7e" title="Threat of Substitutes">
-Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
-- Alternative solutions
-- Switching costs to substitutes
-- Price-performance trade-offs
-</step>
-<template-output>porters_five_forces</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="8" goal="Market Trends and Future Outlook">
-<action>Identify trends and future market dynamics</action>
-Research and analyze:
-**Technology Trends:**
-- Emerging technologies impacting market
-- Digital transformation effects
-- Automation possibilities
-**Social/Cultural Trends:**
-- Changing customer behaviors
-- Generational shifts
-- Social movements impact
-**Economic Trends:**
-- Macroeconomic factors
-- Industry-specific economics
-- Investment trends
-**Regulatory Trends:**
-- Upcoming regulations
-- Compliance requirements
-- Policy direction
-<ask>Should we explore any specific emerging technologies or disruptions that could reshape this market?</ask>
-<template-output>market_trends</template-output>
-<template-output>future_outlook</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="9" goal="Opportunity Assessment and Strategy">
-<action>Synthesize research into strategic opportunities</action>
-<step n="9a" title="Opportunity Identification">
-Based on all research, identify top 3-5 opportunities:
-For each opportunity:
-- Description and rationale
-- Size estimate (from SOM)
-- Resource requirements
-- Time to market
-- Risk assessment
-- Success criteria
-<template-output>market_opportunities</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="9b" title="Go-to-Market Recommendations">
-Develop GTM strategy based on research:
-**Positioning Strategy:**
-- Value proposition refinement
-- Differentiation approach
-- Messaging framework
-**Target Segment Sequencing:**
-- Beachhead market selection
-- Expansion sequence
-- Segment-specific approaches
-**Channel Strategy:**
-- Distribution channels
-- Partnership opportunities
-- Marketing channels
-**Pricing Strategy:**
-- Model recommendation
-- Price points
-- Value metrics
-<template-output>gtm_strategy</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="9c" title="Risk Analysis">
-Identify and assess key risks:
-**Market Risks:**
-- Demand uncertainty
-- Market timing
-- Economic sensitivity
-**Competitive Risks:**
-- Competitor responses
-- New entrants
-- Technology disruption
-**Execution Risks:**
-- Resource requirements
-- Capability gaps
-- Scaling challenges
-For each risk: Impact (H/M/L) × Probability (H/M/L) = Risk Score
-Provide mitigation strategies.
-<template-output>risk_assessment</template-output>
-</step>
-</step>
-<step n="10" goal="Financial Projections" optional="true" if="enable_financial_modeling == true">
-<action>Create financial model based on market research</action>
-<ask>Would you like to create a financial model with revenue projections based on the market analysis?</ask>
-<check if="yes">
-  Build 3-year projections:
-- Revenue model based on SOM scenarios
-- Customer acquisition projections
-- Unit economics
-- Break-even analysis
-- Funding requirements
-<template-output>financial_projections</template-output>
-</check>
-</step>
-<step n="11" goal="Synthesize findings together into executive summary">
-<critical>This is the last major content section - make it collaborative</critical>
-<action>Review the research journey together. Share high-level summaries of market size, competitive dynamics, customer insights. Ask what stands out most - what surprised them or confirmed their thinking.</action>
-<action>Collaboratively craft the narrative:
-- What's the headline? (The ONE thing someone should know)
-- What are the 3-5 critical insights?
-- Recommended path forward?
-- Key risks?
-This should read like a strategic brief, not a data dump.
-</action>
-<action>Draft executive summary and share. Ask if it captures the essence and if anything is missing or overemphasized.</action>
-<template-output>executive_summary</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="12" goal="Validate sources and compile report">
-<critical>MANDATORY SOURCE VALIDATION - Do NOT skip this step!</critical>
-<action>Before finalizing, conduct source audit:
-Review every major claim in the report and verify:
-**For Market Size Claims:**
-- [ ] At least 2 independent sources cited with URLs
-- [ ] Sources are from {{current_year}} or within 2 years
-- [ ] Sources are credible (Gartner, Forrester, govt data, reputable pubs)
-- [ ] Conflicting estimates are noted with all sources
-**For Competitive Data:**
-- [ ] Competitor information has source URLs
-- [ ] Pricing data is current and sourced
-- [ ] Funding data is verified with dates
-- [ ] Customer reviews/ratings have source links
-**For Growth Rates and Projections:**
-- [ ] CAGR and forecast data are sourced
-- [ ] Methodology is explained or linked
-- [ ] Multiple analyst estimates are compared if available
-**For Customer Insights:**
-- [ ] Persona data is based on real research (cited)
-- [ ] Survey/interview data has sample size and source
-- [ ] Behavioral claims are backed by studies/data
-      </action>
-<action>Count and document source quality:
-- Total sources cited: {{count_all_sources}}
-- High confidence (2+ sources): {{high_confidence_claims}}
-- Single source (needs verification): {{single_source_claims}}
-- Uncertain/speculative: {{low_confidence_claims}}
-If {{single_source_claims}} or {{low_confidence_claims}} is high, consider additional research.
-</action>
-<action>Compile full report with ALL sources properly referenced:
-Generate the complete market research report using the template:
-- Ensure every statistic has inline citation: [Source: Company, Year, URL]
-- Populate all {{sources_*}} template variables
-- Include confidence levels for major claims
-- Add References section with full source list
-  </action>
-<action>Present source quality summary to user:
-"I've completed the research with {{count_all_sources}} total sources:
-- {{high_confidence_claims}} claims verified with multiple sources
-- {{single_source_claims}} claims from single sources (marked for verification)
-- {{low_confidence_claims}} claims with low confidence or speculation
-Would you like me to strengthen any areas with additional research?"
-</action>
-<ask>Would you like to review any specific sections before finalizing? Are there any additional analyses you'd like to include?</ask>
-<goto step="9a" if="user requests changes">Return to refine opportunities</goto>
-<template-output>final_report_ready</template-output>
-<template-output>source_audit_complete</template-output>
-</step>
-<step n="13" goal="Appendices and Supporting Materials" optional="true">
-<ask>Would you like to include detailed appendices with calculations, full competitor profiles, or raw research data?</ask>
-<check if="yes">
-  Create appendices with:
-- Detailed TAM/SAM/SOM calculations
-- Full competitor profiles
-- Customer interview notes
-- Data sources and methodology
-- Financial model details
-- Glossary of terms
-<template-output>appendices</template-output>
-</check>
-</step>
-<step n="14" goal="Update status file on completion" tag="workflow-status">
-<check if="standalone_mode != true">
-  <action>Load the FULL file: {output_folder}/bmm-workflow-status.yaml</action>
-  <action>Find workflow_status key "research"</action>
-  <critical>ONLY write the file path as the status value - no other text, notes, or metadata</critical>
-  <action>Update workflow_status["research"] = "{output_folder}/bmm-research-{{research_mode}}-{{date}}.md"</action>
-  <action>Save file, preserving ALL comments and structure including STATUS DEFINITIONS</action>
-<action>Find first non-completed workflow in workflow_status (next workflow to do)</action>
-<action>Determine next agent from path file based on next workflow</action>
-</check>
-<output>**✅ Research Complete ({{research_mode}} mode)**
-**Research Report:**
-- Research report generated and saved to {output_folder}/bmm-research-{{research_mode}}-{{date}}.md
-{{#if standalone_mode != true}}
-**Status Updated:**
-- Progress tracking updated: research marked complete
-- Next workflow: {{next_workflow}}
-  {{else}}
-  **Note:** Running in standalone mode (no progress tracking)
-  {{/if}}
-**Next Steps:**
-{{#if standalone_mode != true}}
-- **Next workflow:** {{next_workflow}} ({{next_agent}} agent)
-- **Optional:** Review findings with stakeholders, or run additional analysis workflows (product-brief for software, or install BMGD module for game-brief)
-Check status anytime with: `workflow-status`
-{{else}}
-Since no workflow is in progress:
-- Review research findings
-- Refer to the BMM workflow guide if unsure what to do next
-- Or run `workflow-init` to create a workflow path and get guided next steps
-  {{/if}}
-  </output>
-  </step>
-</workflow>