@veyralabs/skills 0.4.1 → 0.5.1

package/skills/venture-suite/venture-analyst/templates/verdict.md

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+# Verdict Template
+
+Final output of venture-analyst. Complete all sections. No section is optional.
+The goal is a decision, not a report.
+
+---
+
+## [Idea Name] - Venture Verdict
+
+**Date:** [YYYY-MM-DD]
+**Evidence Score:** [0-100]
+**Evidence Quality:** [A/B/C/D/F]
+**Recommendation:** BUILD / VALIDATE FIRST / AVOID
+
+---
+
+## Evidence Summary
+
+### Source breakdown
+
+| Source | Count | Quality | Strongest signal |
+|--------|-------|---------|-----------------|
+| HN discussions | [n] | [H/M/L] | "[quote or title]" |
+| Reddit posts | [n] | [H/M/L] | "[quote or title]" |
+| GitHub issues | [n] | [H/M/L] | "[repo - issue title - reactions]" |
+| Market trend | [rising/stable/declining] | - | [avg interest + period] |
+
+**Spending signals found:** [Yes - describe / No]
+**Willingness-to-pay evidence:** [Yes - describe / No]
+
+### Competitor landscape
+
+| Name | Pricing | Users/Stars | Main weakness |
+|------|---------|-------------|---------------|
+| [A] | [price] | [n] | [gap] |
+| [B] | [price] | [n] | [gap] |
+
+**Market gap identified:** [Yes - describe / No]
+**Dominant player (>50% share):** [Yes - name / No]
+
+**Opportunity Score:** [0-100] - [how strong is the market?]
+**Startup Score:** [0-100] - [how viable as a startup to execute?]
+
+---
+
+## Confidence Engine
+
+```
+Confidence: [0-100]
+
+High confidence because:
++ [specific signal - e.g. "312 Reddit mentions across 8 subreddits"]
++ [specific signal - e.g. "84 GitHub issues with 50+ reactions"]
++ [specific signal - e.g. "14 paying competitors validated"]
++ [specific signal - e.g. "trend rising 40% over 12 months"]
+
+Confidence reduced because:
+- [specific gap - e.g. "no direct willingness-to-pay signals found"]
+- [specific gap - e.g. "search volume low, problem may not be searched"]
+- [specific gap - e.g. "fragmented ICP - different pain in different segments"]
+```
+
+---
+
+## Bull Case
+
+*Arguments for building this.*
+
+**Strongest evidence:**
+[2-3 specific data points with sources. Quotes, numbers, URLs.]
+
+**Market timing:**
+[Why now? What changed recently?]
+
+**Competitive angle:**
+[What can this do that incumbents can't or won't?]
+
+**Best-case scenario:**
+In 18 months: [specific outcome] if [specific condition] holds.
+
+---
+
+## Bear Case
+
+*Steelman the opposition. Give it everything.*
+
+**Strongest evidence against:**
+[2-3 specific counterarguments with data.]
+
+**Why existing solutions might be good enough:**
+[What do incumbents have that would be hard to beat?]
+
+**Key risks:**
+- Market: [specific]
+- Timing: [specific]
+- Execution: [specific]
+
+---
+
+## Judge Verdict
+
+### Score
+
+| Signal | Present | Points |
+|--------|---------|--------|
+| Evidence score > 60 | [Y/N] | +2 / 0 |
+| Evidence quality A or B | [Y/N] | +1 / 0 |
+| Trend rising | [Y/N] | +1 / 0 |
+| Clear competitor weakness | [Y/N] | +1 / 0 |
+| No dominant player >50% | [Y/N] | +1 / 0 |
+| B2B willingness-to-pay signals | [Y/N] | +1 / 0 |
+| Price ceiling gap | [Y/N] | +1 / 0 |
+| Evidence score < 30 | [Y/N] | 0 / -3 |
+| Evidence quality D or F | [Y/N] | 0 / -2 |
+| Trend declining | [Y/N] | 0 / -2 |
+| Dominant player + free tier | [Y/N] | 0 / -2 |
+| Niche < 10k users | [Y/N] | 0 / -1 |
+| High-priority founder trap | [Y/N] | 0 / -2 |
+| Reality check failed | [Y/N] | 0 / -2 |
+| **Total** | | **[sum]** |
+
+### Recommendation
+
+**[BUILD / VALIDATE FIRST / AVOID]**
+**Confidence:** [0-100]
+
+*Reasoning (2-3 sentences. Direct. Reference specific evidence):*
+[What tipped the scale. What the judge weighed most heavily.]
+
+---
+
+## Decision Intelligence
+
+### Contradictions
+
+[If none: "No significant contradictions detected."]
+
+[If found:]
+```
+Contradiction: [name]
+
+[source A] shows: [signal]
+[source B] shows: [signal]
+
+Interpretation: [explanation]
+What to verify: [specific test that resolves this]
+```
+
+### Founder Traps
+
+[If none detected: "No founder traps detected."]
+
+[If found:]
+```
+Trap: [trap name]
+Evidence: [which signals matched]
+Risk level: [high/medium]
+```
+
+### Reality Check
+
+[If execution path is clear: "No significant execution barriers identified."]
+
+[If barriers found:]
+```
+Execution risk: [high/medium]
+
+Requires: [list constraints]
+
+Alternative path: [reduced scope or different entry point]
+```
+
+### Distribution Plan
+
+**Top 3 acquisition channels for this idea:**
+
+1. **[channel]** - [why, based on where the evidence was actually found]
+   - Test: [how to test this in 2 weeks with minimal budget]
+
+2. **[channel]** - [why]
+   - Test: [how to test]
+
+3. **[channel]** - [why]
+   - Test: [how to test]
+
+**Avoid:**
+- [channel] - [specific reason for this market]
+
+### Time-To-First-Dollar
+
+**Estimate:** [X-Y weeks]
+
+| Week | Action |
+|------|--------|
+| 1-2 | [specific action] |
+| 3-4 | [specific action] |
+| 5-8 | [specific action] |
+
+**What would accelerate this:** [factor]
+**What would delay this:** [risk]
+
+---
+
+## Next Steps
+
+### If BUILD
+
+**Start here (this week):**
+[One specific action. Not "do customer research." Something like: "Post in r/[subreddit] describing the problem and ask how people handle it - aim for 10 DMs this week."]
+
+**MVP type:** [Concierge / Wizard of Oz / Fake door / Single feature]
+**v0.1 scope:** [What it does. What it explicitly does NOT do.]
+**First 10 customers:** [Where exactly. Who exactly.]
+
+---
+
+### If VALIDATE FIRST
+
+**Critical unknown:**
+[The one thing that must be proven before building. One sentence.]
+
+**Run this experiment:**
+[Name from experiments.py] - [duration] - success = [metric >= threshold]
+
+**Decision point:**
+If [metric] >= [threshold] in [X weeks]: proceed to build.
+If not: [specific pivot or kill condition].
+
+---
+
+### If AVOID
+
+**Core problem:**
+[One clear reason. Not a list.]
+
+**What would have to change:**
+[Specific signal that would make this worth revisiting. Or: "nothing changes this - the structural problem is permanent."]
+
+**Adjacent opportunity (if found):**
+[Related problem the research surfaced that IS worth pursuing.]