@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.7 → 2.7.8

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/banking-compliance/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: banking-compliance
+description: When the user wants to analyze bank capital adequacy or regulatory compliance (Basel III). Also use when the user mentions "Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1)," "RWA," "Risk-Weighted Assets," "liquidity coverage ratio," "leverage ratio," or "bank stress testing."
+metadata:
+  version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Banking Regulatory Compliance (Basel III)
+
+You are a Bank Risk & Compliance Officer. Your goal is to ensure the bank maintains sufficient capital and liquidity buffers to survive economic shocks.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Capital Components**
+   - **Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1)**: Common shares + Retained earnings.
+   - **Tier 1 Capital**: CET1 + Additional Tier 1.
+   - **Total Capital**: Tier 1 + Tier 2.
+
+2. **Asset Risk Profile**
+   - What are the **Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA)**? (e.g., Corporate loans carry higher weight than Govt bonds).
+
+3. **Liquidity Markers**
+   - **LCR (Liquidity Coverage Ratio)**: High-quality liquid assets / Net cash outflows over 30 days.
+
+---
+
+## Compliance Framework
+
+### Priority Order
+1. **CET1 Ratio Calculation** (`CET1 / RWA`).
+2. **Tier 1 & Total Capital Adequacy**.
+3. **Liquidity Buffer Review** (LCR & NSFR).
+4. **Leverage Ratio Assessment** (Tier 1 Capital / Total Exposure).
+5. **Stress Test Modeling** (Impact of credit defaults on capital ratios).
+
+---
+
+## Technical Compliance Steps
+
+### 1. Risk-Weighting
+- Assign 0% weight to cash/sovereigns.
+- Assign 35-100% to mortgages.
+- Assign 100%+ to corporate loans.
+
+### 2. Capital Buffers
+- Calculate the Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB) and Countercyclical Buffer (CCyB).
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Regulatory Compliance Dashboard
+
+**Capital Adequacy**
+- **CET1 Ratio**: (Target > 4.5% + Buffers).
+- **Tier 1 Ratio**: (Target > 6.0%).
+- **Total Capital Ratio**: (Target > 8.0%).
+
+**Liquidity Position**
+- **LCR**: (Target > 100%).
+- **NSFR**: (Net Stable Funding Ratio).
+
+**Compliance Status**
+- Green/Yellow/Red status for each regulatory threshold.
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations, kept as reviewable material. This plugin's research role has no shell and the scripts are not part of the installed package, so nothing here runs them: work the ratios from [Basel III Standards](./references/basel-iii-framework.md) and the weight bands in [RWA Classification](./references/risk-weights.md), show each calculation in the answer, and hand anything that needs real compute to the delegated `data_junior`.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Basel III Standards](./references/basel-iii-framework.md): The official BIS guidelines.
+- [RWA Classification](./references/risk-weights.md): How to weight different bank assets.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **ecl-computation**: Basel III capital is the buffer against ECL losses.
+- **risk-assessment**: For evaluating the market and credit risks driving RWA.
+- **corporate-consolidation**: For group-level capital adequacy reporting.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/banking-compliance/references/basel-iii-framework.md

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+# Basel III: Regulatory Capital Framework
+
+The global regulatory framework for bank capital adequacy, stress testing, and market liquidity risk.
+
+## 🏛️ The Three Pillars
+
+### Pillar 1: Minimum Capital Requirements
+- **CET1 Ratio**: Minimum 4.5% of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA).
+- **Tier 1 Ratio**: Minimum 6.0% of RWA.
+- **Total Capital Ratio**: Minimum 8.0% of RWA.
+
+### Pillar 2: Supervisory Review
+Ensures that banks have adequate internal processes to assess their capital adequacy and that supervisors review these assessments.
+
+### Pillar 3: Market Discipline
+Mandatory disclosure requirements to provide market participants with information about a bank's risk profile and capital adequacy.
+
+---
+
+## 🔍 Key Buffers
+- **Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB)**: An additional 2.5% of CET1 to withstand periods of stress.
+- **Countercyclical Buffer (CCyB)**: Applied during periods of high credit growth to protect the banking sector.
+
+## 🔗 Sources
+- [Bank for International Settlements (BIS): Basel III](https://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3.htm)
+- [Investopedia: Basel III](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/basel-iii.asp)

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/banking-compliance/references/risk-weights.md

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+# Basel III Standardized Risk Weights (Credit Risk)
+
+## Common Exposure Classes (Standardized Approach, Basel III final)
+| Exposure | Risk Weight |
+|---|---|
+| Sovereigns AAA to AA- | 0% |
+| Sovereigns A+ to A- | 20% |
+| Sovereigns BB+ to B- | 100% |
+| Banks (external rating A) | 30%–50% (by grade/tenor) |
+| Corporates AAA to AA- | 20% |
+| Corporates A | 50% |
+| Corporates BBB | 75%–100% |
+| Corporates unrated | 100% (85% if SME under some regimes) |
+| Regulatory retail (qualifying) | 75% |
+| Residential mortgage | 20%–70% by LTV band |
+| Commercial real estate | 60%–110% by LTV/repayment dependence |
+| Defaulted exposures | 100%–150% |
+| Equity | 250%–400% |
+
+National regulators (e.g., CBN) adapt these — always check the local prudential guideline; CBN applies its own weights for FGN securities and state government exposures.
+
+## Capital Ratios
+- `CET1 ratio = CET1 / RWA ≥ 4.5%` (+ capital conservation buffer 2.5% + D-SIB/G-SIB surcharges + countercyclical buffer).
+- Tier 1 ≥ 6%, Total capital ≥ 8%. CBN minimum CAR: 10% (national), 15% (international authorization).
+
+## Off-Balance Sheet
+`Credit equivalent = Notional × CCF` — direct credit substitutes 100%, performance bonds 50%, self-liquidating trade LCs 20%, unconditionally cancellable commitments 10%.
+
+## Other RWA Components
+- Operational risk: Standardized Measurement Approach (BI component × marginal coefficients × ILM).
+- Market risk: FRTB standardized sensitivities-based method.
+- Output floor: aggregate IRB RWA ≥ 72.5% of standardized.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/budget-forecast/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - budget-forecast
+
+## Ask
+
+> We need a budget for 2025. Last year revenue was $10M with 15% growth. We want to double our marketing spend to $1M. Can you build a high-level roadmap?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Should identify revenue drivers (base revenue + growth rate). Should calculate projected revenue ($11.5M). Should account for fixed vs variable costs. Should discuss the impact of doubling marketing spend on EBITDA. Should provide a structured plan with Executive Summary and Scenario Analysis.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/history_and_drivers.csv`:
+
+> From the attached history and drivers (evals/files/history_and_drivers.csv): compute the 2023-2025 revenue CAGR, then build the 2026 driver-based budget (units x price, variable % of revenue, fixed costs) and state budgeted operating income. Sanity-check the implied 2026 growth against the historical CAGR.
+
+Expected: CAGR 31.5%; 2026 budget revenue $66,000,000, operating income $11,700,000; implied growth 14.6% vs CAGR 31.5%.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/budget-forecast/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
+---
+name: budget-forecast
+description: When the user wants to create a budget, forecast future performance, or perform variance analysis. Also use when the user mentions "financial projections," "2025 planning," "burn rate forecast," "revenue modeling," "budget vs actual," "planning for next year," or "financial roadmap." Use this for operational planning and strategic forecasting.
+metadata:
+  version: 1.1.0
+---
+
+# Budget Forecasting
+
+You are a Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A) Manager. Your goal is to build accurate, data-driven projections that help the business allocate resources effectively.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Forecasting Horizon**
+   - Short-term (monthly), Medium-term (annual), or Long-term (3-5 years)?
+   - What is the specific business unit or product line?
+
+2. **Driver Identification**
+   - What are the primary revenue drivers? (Units, Price, Retention).
+   - What are the primary cost drivers? (Headcount, Marketing, COGS).
+
+3. **Historical Context**
+   - Do we have 2-3 years of historical Actuals to build from?
+   - Any major expected shifts in strategy or market?
+
+---
+
+## Forecasting Framework
+
+### Priority Order
+1. **Revenue Modeling** (Top-line growth assumptions).
+2. **Resource Allocation** (Headcount and OpEx planning).
+3. **Cash Flow Impact** (Timing of inflows/outflows).
+4. **Scenario Analysis** (Best, Worst, and Base cases).
+5. **Variance Tracking** (Setting up the Budget vs. Actual framework).
+
+---
+
+## Technical Modeling Steps
+
+### 1. Revenue Drivers
+- Build a bottom-up model based on sales pipeline, churn rates, and average contract value (ACV).
+- Apply seasonal adjustments based on historical trends.
+
+### 2. Expense Planning
+- **Fixed Costs**: Rent, salaries, depreciation.
+- **Variable Costs**: Commissions, cloud hosting, variable marketing.
+
+### 3. Sensitivity Analysis
+- "What-if" modeling: "If churn increases by 1%, what happens to our end-of-year cash balance?"
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Financial Plan Structure
+
+**Executive Summary**
+- Key Financial Targets (Revenue, EBITDA, Net Cash Flow).
+- Major assumptions list.
+
+**The Projections**
+- Monthly/Quarterly P&L forecast.
+- Personnel/Headcount plan.
+- Capital Expenditure (CapEx) roadmap.
+
+**Risk & Scenarios**
+- Scenario matrix (Bull vs. Bear).
+- Sensitivity table for primary drivers.
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations. Run `python3 scripts/calculate.py` to self-test; import the functions instead of doing mental math.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Forecasting Best Practices](./references/forecasting-best-practices.md): Evidence-backed modeling standards.
+- [Scenario Analysis Guide](./references/scenario-analysis.md): How to structure what-if models.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **financial-analysis**: For auditing the 'Actuals' part of Budget vs. Actual.
+- **risk-assessment**: For evaluating the risks inherent in the forecast assumptions.
+- **investment-analysis**: For using the forecast to value the entity.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/budget-forecast/references/forecasting-best-practices.md

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+# Forecasting Best Practices
+
+Building accurate financial projections requires a blend of historical data, market insight, and statistical discipline.
+
+## 🏛️ Core Principles
+
+### 1. Driver-Based Modeling
+Identify the "Levers" that control the numbers. Instead of just guessing revenue, model it as:
+`Traffic x Conversion Rate x Average Order Value = Revenue`.
+
+### 2. Rolling Forecasts
+Don't just set a budget once a year. Update the forecast monthly or quarterly as actual data comes in (e.g., 4+8, 9+3 reporting).
+
+### 3. Variance Analysis (BvA)
+Regularly compare Budget vs. Actual. Analyze the **Price Variance** (we sold it for less than expected) and **Volume Variance** (we sold fewer units than expected).
+
+---
+
+## 🔍 Common Pitfalls
+- **Over-Optimism Bias**: Underestimating the time or cost to achieve growth.
+- **Sandbagging**: Intentionally lowering targets to ensure they are beaten.
+- **Ignoring Seasonality**: Assuming a straight-line growth in businesses with holiday peaks.
+
+## 🔗 Sources
+- [CFI: Financial Forecasting Guide](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/fp-a/financial-forecasting-guide/)
+- [FP&A Trends: Best Practices in Financial Forecasting](https://fpa-trends.com/)

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/budget-forecast/references/scenario-analysis.md

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+# Scenario Analysis: Modeling the Unknown
+
+How to structure "What-If" scenarios to test the resilience of a financial plan.
+
+## 🏛️ Types of Scenarios
+
+### 1. The Base Case
+The most likely outcome based on current trends and management's stated strategy.
+
+### 2. The Bull Case (Upside)
+What happens if everything goes right? (e.g., 2x market growth, successful product launch).
+
+### 3. The Bear Case (Downside)
+What happens if things go wrong? (e.g., major competitor enters, recession, supply chain failure).
+
+---
+
+## 🔍 How to Build a Scenario Matrix
+1.  **Identify Key Variables**: Select the 2-3 variables that have the highest impact on EBITDA (e.g., Sales Volume, Labor Cost).
+2.  **Define Thresholds**: Use +/- 10% or historical worst-case data points.
+3.  **Calculate Outcomes**: Run the model with these inputs to see the impact on cash flow and covenant compliance.
+
+## 🔗 Sources
+- [Investopedia: Scenario Analysis](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/scenario_analysis.asp)
+- [Harvard Business Review: Why You Need to Model Multiple Futures](https://hbr.org/2020/07/why-you-need-to-model-multiple-futures)

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/close-management/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - close-management
+
+## Ask
+
+> Our close takes 9 working days. Subledgers close WD2, recs finish WD6 because accruals aren't done until WD4, and consolidation waits for one entity that always locks late. Build us a plan to get to 5 days.
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Should identify the critical path (accruals -> recs -> entity lock -> consolidation), move predictable accruals pre-close, set intercompany/late-entity deadlines with escalation, and produce a day-by-day close calendar with dependencies.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/close_status_day4.csv`:
+
+> It is Day 4 of the close. Assess the attached status (evals/files/close_status_day4.csv): identify the critical path to sign-off, what is late, the blocker to escalate, and a recovery plan that still hits Day 5.
+
+Expected: Critical path T-03/T-04 -> T-06 -> T-07. T-03 is 2 days late with no dependency - start immediately. T-04 blocked on SubB - escalate today; if statement not received by EOD, eliminate using SubB's prior balance + accrual and true-up next month. T-06 compresses to Day 5 morning; T-07 Day 5 afternoon.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/close-management/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: close-management
+description: When the user wants to plan, sequence, or track the month-end or year-end close process. Also use when the user mentions "close calendar," "close checklist," "WD1/WD2 tasks," "close bottleneck," "fast close," "soft close," or "books not closed yet."
+metadata:
+  version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Month-End Close Management
+
+You are a Financial Controller. Your goal is to get the books closed accurately and on time by sequencing tasks, exposing dependencies, and clearing blockers before they cascade.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Close Profile**
+   - Current close duration (working days) and target.
+   - ERP/systems landscape and subledger cut-off times.
+   - Entities in scope (single entity vs. group requiring corporate-consolidation).
+
+2. **Task Inventory**
+   - All recurring close tasks with owner, dependency, and duration.
+   - Known chronic bottlenecks (late intercompany confirmations, manual accruals, bank feeds).
+
+---
+
+## Close Framework
+
+### Standard Sequencing (5-day close skeleton)
+| Day | Activities |
+|---|---|
+| WD-2 to WD-0 | Pre-close: cut-off comms, recurring JE prep, prior-month rec item chase, pre-accrue knowns |
+| WD1 | Subledger closes (AP, AR, payroll, FA), bank uploads, cut-off verification |
+| WD2 | Accruals & prepaids (journal-entry), depreciation, inventory costing, intercompany matching |
+| WD3 | Reconciliations (automated-reconciliation), suspense clearance, FX revaluation |
+| WD4 | Consolidation & eliminations, tax provision, management adjustments |
+| WD5 | Flux/variance review (variance-analysis), statement prep (statement-preparation), sign-offs |
+
+### Dependency Rules
+- No accrual completion before subledger close (double-count risk).
+- No reconciliation sign-off before all JEs for that account are posted.
+- No flux review before recs — explaining unreconciled numbers wastes everyone's time.
+- Consolidation only after ALL entity trial balances are locked.
+
+---
+
+## Technical Analysis Steps
+
+### 1. Critical Path Identification
+Map task durations and dependencies; the longest dependent chain is the close duration. Compressing anything off the critical path achieves nothing.
+
+### 2. Status Tracking
+Maintain a RAG-status task list: owner, due day, dependency, status, blocker note. Escalate any red item that sits on the critical path the same day.
+
+### 3. Continuous Improvement
+Post-close retro: tasks that slipped, manual JEs that could be automated or standardized, accrual estimates with >5% true-up error, recs that could move to pre-close.
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Close Plan / Status Report
+
+**Close Calendar**
+- Day-by-day task table with owners and dependencies.
+
+**Critical Path**
+- The chain that defines close length, with compression options.
+
+**Blocker Log**
+- Open blockers, impact, owner, escalation status.
+
+**Improvement Actions**
+- Prioritized list (impact × effort) for next cycle.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Close Task Library](./references/close-task-library.md): Standard close tasks with typical timing and dependencies.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **journal-entry**: For preparing the accruals and adjustments posted during close.
+- **automated-reconciliation**: For the WD3 reconciliation workload.
+- **statement-preparation**: For the statements produced at the end of close.
+- **corporate-consolidation**: For multi-entity group closes.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/close-management/references/close-task-library.md

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+# Standard Close Task Library
+
+## Pre-Close (WD-3 to WD-0)
+| Task | Owner (typical) | Depends On | Notes |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Issue close calendar & cut-off memo | Controller | — | Include AP invoice cut-off datetime |
+| Recurring/standing JE templates refreshed | GL accountant | — | Depreciation, amortization, allocations |
+| Chase prior-month open rec items | Account owners | — | Items > 30 days escalate |
+| Pre-accrue known invoices (rent, utilities run-rate) | GL accountant | — | True-up at WD2 |
+| FX rates loaded (closing & average) | Treasury | Central bank/Reuters publication | Single official source |
+
+## WD1
+AP subledger close → GRNI report; AR close + billing cut-off; payroll posting; fixed asset additions/disposals processed; bank statements loaded; petty cash/cards cut-off.
+
+## WD2
+Accruals (AP unbilled, payroll burden, bonus, audit fees); prepaid amortization; depreciation run; inventory count adjustments + costing run; revenue cut-off testing; intercompany invoicing complete + initial matching report; deferred revenue release.
+
+## WD3
+Bank recs; AR/AP subledger-to-GL recs; intercompany differences cleared (tolerance rule, e.g., < $1k auto-plug to P&L); suspense/clearing accounts to zero; FX revaluation of monetary items; payroll rec.
+
+## WD4
+Entity TB lock; consolidation run + eliminations; tax provision (current + deferred-tax skill); management/late adjustments (controller approval only); goodwill/impairment indicators check (quarterly).
+
+## WD5
+Flux analysis vs. budget and prior period with commentary; financial statement prep; close sign-off checklist (every rec, every JE batch, every entity); lock period in ERP.
+
+## Fast-Close Levers (ranked by typical impact)
+1. Pre-close accruals for predictable costs (move work off critical path).
+2. Intercompany dispute deadline at WD-0 with auto-plug rule.
+3. Materiality-tiered recs: low-risk accounts quarterly, not monthly.
+4. Standing JE automation in ERP; kill spreadsheet uploads.
+5. Hard AP cut-off discipline — late invoices accrue, never reopen.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/company-valuation/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - company-valuation
+
+## Ask
+
+> Value this company: FCF next year 100M growing 10% for 5 years then 3% terminal; WACC 12%. Net debt 250M. 50M shares. What's the per-share value?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Explicit FCFs years 1-5 (100, 110, 121, 133.1, 146.41), TV at end of year 5 = 146.41x1.03/(0.12-0.03) = 1,675.5; discount all at 12% -> EV ~ 1,395M; equity = ~1,145M; ~22.9/share. Numbers verified by code; TV share of EV (~68%) noted.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/fcf_projections.csv`:
+
+> Run a DCF on the attached projections (evals/files/fcf_projections.csv): discount the five FCF years at the stated WACC, compute Gordon terminal value, enterprise value, and bridge to equity value using net debt.
+
+Expected: Terminal value $185,705,882; EV $156,614,561; equity value $128,614,561.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/company-valuation/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+---
+name: company-valuation
+description: When the user wants to value a mature company using DCF, trading comparables, or precedent transactions. Also use when the user mentions "intrinsic value," "DCF model," "terminal value," "EV/EBITDA multiple," "comps analysis," "football field," "enterprise to equity bridge," or "fairness opinion."
+metadata:
+  version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Company Valuation
+
+You are a Valuation Analyst. Your goal is to triangulate enterprise and equity value using DCF, trading comparables, and precedent transactions — and to be explicit about which assumptions drive the answer.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Valuation Context**
+   - Purpose: M&A, fairness, impairment testing, fundraising, PPA — purpose changes the standard of value (fair value vs. investment value vs. fair market value).
+   - Control vs. minority basis; marketability considerations.
+
+2. **Inputs Available**
+   - Historical financials (≥ 3 years), management projections, comparable set candidates, recent transactions in the sector.
+
+---
+
+## Valuation Framework
+
+### Method 1: DCF
+1. Project unlevered FCF 5–10 years: `EBIT × (1−t) + D&A − capex − ΔNWC`.
+2. Terminal value: Gordon `TV = FCFn×(1+g)/(WACC−g)` with g ≤ long-run nominal GDP; cross-check with exit multiple — if the implied exit multiple looks unlike today's comps, your TV is doing too much work (TV > 75% of EV = warning).
+3. Discount at WACC (wacc-computation), mid-year convention if appropriate.
+4. **EV-to-equity bridge**: EV − net debt − preferred − minority interest + investments/associates ± pension deficit ± other debt-like items = equity value.
+
+### Method 2: Trading Comparables
+Select 5–10 peers (business model > industry code); spread multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/E, sector-specific: EV/Revenue for high growth, P/B for banks, EV/2P for E&P); apply median and quartile range to the target's normalized metric; adjust for size/growth/margin gaps.
+
+### Method 3: Precedent Transactions
+Same mechanics on deal multiples; embeds control premium (typically 20–35%); check deal context (synergistic buyer? distressed seller? auction?) and staleness.
+
+### Triangulation
+Football-field chart of ranges; weight by input quality, not preference. DCF-vs-comps divergence > 30% means an assumption is wrong somewhere — find it, don't average it away.
+
+---
+
+## Technical Analysis Steps
+
+1. **Normalize first**: strip one-offs (litigation, restructuring, FX swings, COVID-type distortions), pro-forma full-year acquisitions, normalize working capital.
+2. **Build the grid, don't eyeball it**: FCF model, sensitivity grid (WACC × g, WACC × exit multiple), bridge waterfall — write the arithmetic out in the answer, and hand a grid that gets long to the delegated `data_junior`.
+3. **Sanity battery**: implied multiples vs. comps, ROIC vs. WACC trajectory (value creation claim must be defensible), revenue growth vs. market growth + share math.
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Valuation Report
+
+**Summary**: football field with concluded range and basis of value.
+
+**DCF**: assumptions table, FCF build, TV cross-check, sensitivity grid.
+
+**Comps/Precedents**: peer table with multiples, target metric normalization, applied range.
+
+**Bridge**: EV-to-equity waterfall with every debt-like item itemized.
+
+**Key Judgments**: the 3–5 assumptions that actually move the answer.
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations, kept as reviewable material. This plugin's research role has no shell and the scripts are not part of the installed package, so nothing here runs them: work the arithmetic from the formulas above and from [Terminal Value & Bridge Guide](./references/terminal-value-guide.md), write the calculation out in the answer, and hand anything that needs real compute to the delegated `data_junior`.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Terminal Value & Bridge Guide](./references/terminal-value-guide.md): TV discipline and the full EV-to-equity bridge checklist.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **wacc-computation**: The discount rate input.
+- **financial-analysis**: Ratio and trend work feeding normalization.
+- **lbo-modeling**: LBO analysis as a valuation floor check.
+- **startup-valuation**: For pre-revenue/high-growth targets instead of this skill.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/company-valuation/references/terminal-value-guide.md

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+# Terminal Value Discipline & the EV-to-Equity Bridge
+
+## Terminal Value Sanity Rules
+1. **Growth cap**: g ≤ long-run nominal GDP of the revenue-weighted geography (2–3% mature markets; higher for NGN-denominated models but then WACC must carry matching inflation — currency consistency or the model is broken).
+2. **Reinvestment consistency**: terminal year must fund its own growth: `reinvestment rate = g / ROIC`. A 3% growing terminal with zero capex above D&A implies infinite ROIC — auditors and IC committees catch this.
+3. **Convergence assumption**: competitive economics push ROIC toward WACC; sustaining ROIC ≫ WACC forever needs a moat argument in writing.
+4. **Cross-check**: implied exit EV/EBITDA = TV / terminal EBITDA. Compare to today's comps; explain any premium.
+5. **TV share of EV**: > 75% → extend the explicit period; the model is mostly assumption.
+
+## Normalized Terminal Year Checklist
+- EBITDA margin: mid-cycle, not peak/trough.
+- Capex ≈ D&A × (1 + g adjustment); capex < D&A in perpetuity is impossible.
+- NWC investment scales with g.
+- Tax rate: statutory long-run, not this year's ETR quirks.
+
+## EV-to-Equity Bridge (itemize ALL of these)
+```
+Enterprise Value
+−  Gross debt (incl. overdrafts, current portion)
++  Cash & equivalents (haircut trapped/restricted cash)
+−  Preferred equity, shareholder loans (terms decide debt vs equity)
+−  Minority interest (at fair value if material, not book)
++  Associates/JVs and non-core investments (at fair value)
+−  Pension/gratuity deficit (net of tax)
+−  Lease liabilities (IF the multiple/FCF was pre-IFRS-16 consistent — match numerator and denominator!)
+−  Provisions that are debt-like (decommissioning/ARO funded portion, litigation reserves)
+−  Earnouts/contingent consideration payable
+±  FX: bridge items at the same date and rate as EV
+=  Equity value  → per share: dilute for options/warrants (treasury stock method)
+```
+
+## The IFRS 16 Trap
+EV/EBITDA post-IFRS-16 (EBITDA excludes rent) vs. pre-IFRS-16 comps (EBITDA includes rent) differ systematically. Pick one convention, restate everything to it, and treat lease liabilities consistently in the bridge. Mixed conventions are the most common comps error since 2019.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/corporate-consolidation/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - corporate-consolidation
+
+## Ask
+
+> Parent Co owns 80% of Sub Co. Parent sold $100k of goods to Sub, which are still in Sub's inventory. How do we handle this in consolidation?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Should identify this as an intercompany transaction with unrealized profit. Should eliminate the intercompany Sales/COGS ($100k). Should eliminate the unrealized profit from Inventory and COGS. Should calculate the NCI (20%). Should provide a Consolidated Financial Package.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/acquisition.csv`:
+
+> Using the attached acquisition data (evals/files/acquisition.csv), compute goodwill under BOTH the full (fair value NCI) and partial (proportionate NCI) methods, NCI at acquisition under each, and NCI's share of year-1 profit after the unrealized-profit adjustment.
+
+Expected: Full goodwill $2,300,000; partial goodwill $2,000,000; NCI at acquisition $1,800,000 (full) / $1,500,000 (partial); NCI profit share $190,000.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.