@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.10 → 2.7.12
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/CHANGELOG.md +68 -0
- package/README.md +3 -2
- package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
- package/{capital-config → config}/client.js +2 -2
- package/{capital-config → config}/client.src.cjs +2 -2
- package/{capital-config → config}/package.json +2 -2
- package/cordis.patch.yml +7 -3
- package/lib/index.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/index.js +2 -2
- package/lib/sources/fuyao-core.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/sources/fuyao-core.js +1 -1
- package/lib/sources/tencent-public-core.js +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
- package/package.json +5 -5
- package/preset/capital-generation/agent.patch.yml +6 -3
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-profile/SKILL.md +177 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-protocol/SKILL.md +11 -269
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-data-query/SKILL.md +109 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-equity-research/SKILL.md +2 -2
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-orchestration/SKILL.md +3 -2
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-evidence/SKILL.md +134 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-web-protocol/SKILL.md +10 -130
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/SKILL.md +11 -152
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/10-analysis-framework.md +75 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/11-output-and-signal.md +51 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/bear-case/references/12-thesis-invalidation.md +44 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/SKILL.md +11 -177
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/10-scoring-framework.md +85 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/11-output-format.md +58 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/stock-screener/references/12-invalidation-and-signal.md +51 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/SKILL.md +16 -184
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/10-catalyst-types.md +64 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-catalyst-calendar/references/11-workflow-and-calendar.md +131 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/SKILL.md +14 -195
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-idea-generation/references/10-workflow.md +201 -0
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/SKILL.md +15 -156
- package/selected-skills/claude-for-financial-services-cn/vertical-plugins/china-finance/skills/china-sector-overview/references/10-workflow.md +161 -0
- package/selected-skills/financeskills/UPSTREAM.md +1 -1
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/SKILL.md +31 -122
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{01-decision-posture.md → 01-decision-posture-D01-D04.md} +0 -119
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/01-decision-posture-D05-D09.md +123 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/02-business-economics-B01-B03.md +94 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{02-business-economics.md → 02-business-economics-B04-B07.md} +3 -93
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{03-management-governance.md → 03-management-governance-M01-M04.md} +0 -93
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/03-management-governance-M05-M08.md +97 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/04-financial-reality-F01-F03.md +95 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{04-financial-reality.md → 04-financial-reality-F04-F07.md} +3 -94
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{05-valuation.md → 05-valuation-V01-V03.md} +0 -72
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/05-valuation-V04-V06.md +76 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{06-capital-allocation.md → 06-capital-allocation-C01-C04.md} +0 -115
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/06-capital-allocation-C05-C09.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/{07-risk-monitoring.md → 07-risk-monitoring-R01-R03.md} +0 -94
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/07-risk-monitoring-R04-R07.md +98 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S01-S03.md +99 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S04-S06.md +72 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S07-S09.md +74 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays-S10-S12.md +76 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/09-workflows.md +96 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/10-method.md +12 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/11-deterministic-router.md +11 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/UPSTREAM.md +1 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/SKILL.md +10 -86
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/10-workflow.md +94 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-1.md +220 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-2.md +146 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-3.md +114 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology-4.md +113 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology.md +8 -521
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-1.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-2.md +82 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-3.md +158 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research-4.md +123 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research.md +8 -454
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-1.md +155 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology-2.md +43 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology.md +6 -180
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-1.md +114 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-2.md +180 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research-3.md +92 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research.md +7 -359
- package/{capital-watchlist → watchlist}/client.js +2 -2
- package/{capital-watchlist → watchlist}/client.src.cjs +2 -2
- package/{capital-watchlist → watchlist}/index.js +1 -1
- package/{capital-watchlist → watchlist}/package.json +2 -2
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays.md +0 -309
- /package/{capital-config → config}/index.js +0 -0
- /package/{capital-watchlist → watchlist}/holding-rules.js +0 -0
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.C; OM1996; BH2022.
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### D05 — Use Opportunity Cost Across Action and Inaction
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- **Decision question:** Which feasible alternative—the current asset, cash, another
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asset, or waiting—has the best supported owner outcome after tax, risk, and friction?
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- **Guidance:** Compare action and inaction on a common owner-level basis and treat
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waiting as an alternative with optionality and opportunity cost.
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- **Use when:** Allocation comparisons or a proposal that omits the best feasible
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alternative.
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- **Analytical actions:** Define alternatives and horizon; compare owner cash, risk,
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tax, friction, liquidity, and scale; state assumptions driving the ranking.
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- **Output:** An opportunity-cost table with supported, challenged, or unresolved
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comparisons.
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- **Limits:** Alternatives may be incommensurable or poorly evidenced; the comparison
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does not authorize reallocation.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1987 annual letter** — *implements*: select by after tax
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mathematical expectation.
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- **Warren Buffett’s 2015 50th-anniversary essay** — *qualifies*: consider inaction
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before selling a prosperous business.
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- **Corroboration:** BPL1963; CM50-2015; BH2014.
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### D06 — Pair Patient Standards with Decisive Action
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- **Decision question:** Are standards being lowered to create activity, or is a
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supported opportunity being missed because of pressure or hesitation?
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- **Guidance:** Precommit analytical and resilience requirements, wait without relaxing
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them, and classify a case as analytically ready only when evidence, price, and
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downside align.
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- **Use when:** Activity pressure, fear or enthusiasm, prolonged inactivity, or a
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material price dislocation.
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- **Analytical actions:** Record precommitted conditions; test the case against them;
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explain a ready, not-ready, or unresolved result.
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- **Output:** An analytical-readiness checklist and reasoned no-action, unresolved, or
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criteria-satisfied finding.
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- **Limits:** Patience is not proof of discipline and contrarian action is not
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automatically correct; the card does not execute an action.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2024 annual letter** — *supports*: wait liquidly and act on
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compelling opportunities.
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should not paralyze long term investment.
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### D07 — Assess Whether Concentration Fits Capability and Portfolio Survival
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exposures, downside tolerance, liquidity, and survival of a major error?
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survival does not depend on the thesis being right.
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- **Use when:** A concentrated exposure, correlated portfolio, or claim that conviction
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alone justifies concentration.
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- **Analytical actions:** Map competence and downside; aggregate common exposures and
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forced-action paths; identify a major-error survival case.
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- **Output:** A concentration-fit assessment with capability, correlation, liquidity,
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and survival findings, but no position size.
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- **Limits:** Self-assessed competence may be false; no numeric sizing rule is supplied.
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exceptional financial strength.
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investor knowledge.
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- **Corroboration:** BPL1963; OM1996; LOW ch.5 (American Express concentration case).
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### D08 — Judge Active Skill After Friction, Capacity, and Precommitment
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- **Decision question:** Was apparent skill identifiable prospectively, repeatable after
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costs, and usable at the capital scale under review?
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- **Guidance:** Compare with a suitable low-friction alternative and reject
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hindsight-selected success unless process, persistence, downside behavior, incentives,
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and capacity support a prospective claim.
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extrapolation from a small capital base.
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- **Analytical actions:** Reconstruct after-cost results; examine prospective selection
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evidence and downside periods; test capacity and incentive effects.
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- **Output:** A skill dossier separating gross result, friction, exposure, capacity, and
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prospective identifiability.
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- **Limits:** Benchmark, factor, regime, survivorship, and access choices can leave the
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conclusion unresolved.
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are rarely identifiable.
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investment success into underperformance.
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### D09 — Detect Reflexive Speculation and Promotional Supply
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leverage, promotion, serial supply, and resale to later buyers?
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narratives, and exit-before-others logic as warning mechanisms that require
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independently supported business value.
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issuance, or a thesis dominated by resale.
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leverage, incentives, and supply; separate productive return from resale.
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dependencies, beneficiaries, and unresolved economics.
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intermediary, or issuance is fraudulent.
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overpower security merit.
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investor extraction business models.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.G; BPL1965; BH2023.
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# Decision Posture and Opportunity Cost · Part 2 of 2 (D05-D09)
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Cards D05, D06, D07, D08, D09 of this module. Part 1 (`01-decision-posture-D01-D04.md`) holds the module title and card index.
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Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
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### D05 — Use Opportunity Cost Across Action and Inaction
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- **Decision question:** Which feasible alternative—the current asset, cash, another
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asset, or waiting—has the best supported owner outcome after tax, risk, and friction?
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- **Guidance:** Compare action and inaction on a common owner-level basis and treat
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waiting as an alternative with optionality and opportunity cost.
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- **Use when:** Allocation comparisons or a proposal that omits the best feasible
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alternative.
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- **Analytical actions:** Define alternatives and horizon; compare owner cash, risk,
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tax, friction, liquidity, and scale; state assumptions driving the ranking.
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- **Output:** An opportunity-cost table with supported, challenged, or unresolved
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comparisons.
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- **Limits:** Alternatives may be incommensurable or poorly evidenced; the comparison
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does not authorize reallocation.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1987 annual letter** — *implements*: select by after tax
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mathematical expectation.
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- **Warren Buffett’s 2015 50th-anniversary essay** — *qualifies*: consider inaction
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before selling a prosperous business.
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- **Corroboration:** BPL1963; CM50-2015; BH2014.
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<a id="d06"></a>
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### D06 — Pair Patient Standards with Decisive Action
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- **Decision question:** Are standards being lowered to create activity, or is a
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supported opportunity being missed because of pressure or hesitation?
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- **Guidance:** Precommit analytical and resilience requirements, wait without relaxing
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them, and classify a case as analytically ready only when evidence, price, and
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downside align.
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- **Use when:** Activity pressure, fear or enthusiasm, prolonged inactivity, or a
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material price dislocation.
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|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Record precommitted conditions; test the case against them;
|
|
39
|
+
explain a ready, not-ready, or unresolved result.
|
|
40
|
+
- **Output:** An analytical-readiness checklist and reasoned no-action, unresolved, or
|
|
41
|
+
criteria-satisfied finding.
|
|
42
|
+
- **Limits:** Patience is not proof of discipline and contrarian action is not
|
|
43
|
+
automatically correct; the card does not execute an action.
|
|
44
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
45
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2024 annual letter** — *supports*: wait liquidly and act on
|
|
46
|
+
compelling opportunities.
|
|
47
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *qualifies*: persistent uncertainty
|
|
48
|
+
should not paralyze long term investment.
|
|
49
|
+
- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; BH2022.
|
|
50
|
+
|
|
51
|
+
<a id="d07"></a>
|
|
52
|
+
|
|
53
|
+
### D07 — Assess Whether Concentration Fits Capability and Portfolio Survival
|
|
54
|
+
|
|
55
|
+
- **Decision question:** Is concentration supported by understanding, distinct
|
|
56
|
+
exposures, downside tolerance, liquidity, and survival of a major error?
|
|
57
|
+
- **Guidance:** Evaluate concentration only where conviction is evidence-based and
|
|
58
|
+
survival does not depend on the thesis being right.
|
|
59
|
+
- **Use when:** A concentrated exposure, correlated portfolio, or claim that conviction
|
|
60
|
+
alone justifies concentration.
|
|
61
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Map competence and downside; aggregate common exposures and
|
|
62
|
+
forced-action paths; identify a major-error survival case.
|
|
63
|
+
- **Output:** A concentration-fit assessment with capability, correlation, liquidity,
|
|
64
|
+
and survival findings, but no position size.
|
|
65
|
+
- **Limits:** Self-assessed competence may be false; no numeric sizing rule is supplied.
|
|
66
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
67
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1984 annual letter** — *qualifies*: concentration requires
|
|
68
|
+
exceptional financial strength.
|
|
69
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1993 annual letter** — *implements*: match diversification to
|
|
70
|
+
investor knowledge.
|
|
71
|
+
- **Corroboration:** BPL1963; OM1996; LOW ch.5 (American Express concentration case).
|
|
72
|
+
|
|
73
|
+
<a id="d08"></a>
|
|
74
|
+
|
|
75
|
+
### D08 — Judge Active Skill After Friction, Capacity, and Precommitment
|
|
76
|
+
|
|
77
|
+
- **Decision question:** Was apparent skill identifiable prospectively, repeatable after
|
|
78
|
+
costs, and usable at the capital scale under review?
|
|
79
|
+
- **Guidance:** Compare with a suitable low-friction alternative and reject
|
|
80
|
+
hindsight-selected success unless process, persistence, downside behavior, incentives,
|
|
81
|
+
and capacity support a prospective claim.
|
|
82
|
+
- **Use when:** Manager selection, strategy evaluation, performance attribution, or
|
|
83
|
+
extrapolation from a small capital base.
|
|
84
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Reconstruct after-cost results; examine prospective selection
|
|
85
|
+
evidence and downside periods; test capacity and incentive effects.
|
|
86
|
+
- **Output:** A skill dossier separating gross result, friction, exposure, capacity, and
|
|
87
|
+
prospective identifiability.
|
|
88
|
+
- **Limits:** Benchmark, factor, regime, survivorship, and access choices can leave the
|
|
89
|
+
conclusion unresolved.
|
|
90
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
91
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2016 annual letter** — *qualifies*: skilled managers exist but
|
|
92
|
+
are rarely identifiable.
|
|
93
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2016 annual letter** — *supports*: asset growth turns
|
|
94
|
+
investment success into underperformance.
|
|
95
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §III.A; BPL1969; BH2022.
|
|
96
|
+
|
|
97
|
+
<a id="d09"></a>
|
|
98
|
+
|
|
99
|
+
### D09 — Detect Reflexive Speculation and Promotional Supply
|
|
100
|
+
|
|
101
|
+
- **Decision question:** Is expected value grounded in productive cash generation or in
|
|
102
|
+
leverage, promotion, serial supply, and resale to later buyers?
|
|
103
|
+
- **Guidance:** Treat fee-driven distribution, serial issuance, effortless-gain
|
|
104
|
+
narratives, and exit-before-others logic as warning mechanisms that require
|
|
105
|
+
independently supported business value.
|
|
106
|
+
- **Use when:** New-issue booms, promotional markets, nonproductive assets, rapid
|
|
107
|
+
issuance, or a thesis dominated by resale.
|
|
108
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Trace cash generation and who funds whom; map issuance,
|
|
109
|
+
leverage, incentives, and supply; separate productive return from resale.
|
|
110
|
+
- **Output:** A speculation-mechanism map identifying productive support, reflexive
|
|
111
|
+
dependencies, beneficiaries, and unresolved economics.
|
|
112
|
+
- **Limits:** The warning neither times reversal nor implies that every high valuation,
|
|
113
|
+
intermediary, or issuance is fraudulent.
|
|
114
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
115
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1990 annual letter** — *supports*: distribution revenue can
|
|
116
|
+
overpower security merit.
|
|
117
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: bubble markets enable
|
|
118
|
+
investor extraction business models.
|
|
119
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.G; BPL1965; BH2023.
|
|
120
|
+
|
|
121
|
+
<!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
|
|
122
|
+
See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
|
|
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|
+
-->
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# Business Economics and Competitive Position
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
|
|
4
|
+
Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
|
|
5
|
+
return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
Read this file when mapping the business, testing moat mechanisms, reinvestment, or
|
|
8
|
+
structural change. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole
|
|
9
|
+
module by default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
|
|
10
|
+
[source key](00-source-key.md).
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
## Card Index
|
|
13
|
+
|
|
14
|
+
| Card | Decision question |
|
|
15
|
+
| --- | --- |
|
|
16
|
+
| [B01](#b01) | How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash, required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash? |
|
|
17
|
+
| [B02](#b02) | What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or eroding? |
|
|
18
|
+
| [B03](#b03) | Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing support durable economics? |
|
|
19
|
+
| [B04](#b04) | Does a non-brand mechanism durably alter delivered cost, customer switching, competitor entry, or network utility? |
|
|
20
|
+
| [B05](#b05) | Will price-taking, excess capacity, and required reinvestment consume apparent earnings or growth? |
|
|
21
|
+
| [B06](#b06) | Can the business deploy material additional capital at attractive normalized returns for long enough to affect owner value? |
|
|
22
|
+
| [B07](#b07) | Is weakness temporary and bounded, or caused by persistent economics that additional effort and capital are unlikely to repair? |
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
## Complete Cards
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
<a id="b01"></a>
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
### B01 — Map How the Business Earns and Converts a Dollar
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
|
+
- **Decision question:** How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash,
|
|
31
|
+
required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash?
|
|
32
|
+
- **Guidance:** Build a causal model from transaction and unit economics through working
|
|
33
|
+
capital, maintenance, growth funding, and owner cash, then reconcile it to reported
|
|
34
|
+
totals.
|
|
35
|
+
- **Use when:** Initial analysis, a changed business model, unexplained cash conversion,
|
|
36
|
+
or a forecast with unclear operating mechanics.
|
|
37
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Map revenue drivers, unit economics, and costs; trace required
|
|
38
|
+
and optional reinvestment; reconcile to reported cash and segments.
|
|
39
|
+
- **Output:** A one-page business-model map and dollar-conversion bridge with explicit
|
|
40
|
+
gaps.
|
|
41
|
+
- **Limits:** A coherent map does not prove durability or value; unresolved segment,
|
|
42
|
+
unit, or reinvestment data leave the map unresolved.
|
|
43
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
44
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
|
|
45
|
+
through cash flow economics.
|
|
46
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1977 annual letter** — *illustrates*: See’s capital light
|
|
47
|
+
earnings growth.
|
|
48
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; EWB §V.D; OM1996.
|
|
49
|
+
|
|
50
|
+
<a id="b02"></a>
|
|
51
|
+
|
|
52
|
+
### B02 — Identify a Causal Moat and Track Its Direction
|
|
53
|
+
|
|
54
|
+
- **Decision question:** What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or
|
|
55
|
+
eroding?
|
|
56
|
+
- **Guidance:** Name the mechanism, behavior it changes, and economics it protects;
|
|
57
|
+
track direction with business-specific evidence rather than labels.
|
|
58
|
+
- **Use when:** A thesis claims durable quality, excess returns, franchise value, or
|
|
59
|
+
competitive advantage.
|
|
60
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** State the mechanism and protected benefit; describe the
|
|
61
|
+
strongest plausible attack; track strengthening and erosion indicators.
|
|
62
|
+
- **Output:** A causal moat map with mechanism, protected economics, attack path,
|
|
63
|
+
indicators, and unresolved links.
|
|
64
|
+
- **Limits:** Reputation, market share, and historical returns do not alone prove a
|
|
65
|
+
moat.
|
|
66
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
67
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: widening the moat.
|
|
68
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *illustrates*: GEICO direct distribution
|
|
69
|
+
created structural cost advantage.
|
|
70
|
+
- **Corroboration:** BH1981; BH2007; BH2014; LOW ch.3 (GEICO cost-advantage discovery).
|
|
71
|
+
|
|
72
|
+
<a id="b03"></a>
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
### B03 — Test Pricing Power, Brand, and Distribution Strength
|
|
75
|
+
|
|
76
|
+
- **Decision question:** Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing
|
|
77
|
+
support durable economics?
|
|
78
|
+
- **Guidance:** Treat brand and distribution as mechanisms only when price realization,
|
|
79
|
+
retention, volume, utility, and channel evidence show a durable behavioral effect.
|
|
80
|
+
- **Use when:** Brand, loyalty, distribution, or pricing power is central to the thesis.
|
|
81
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Decompose price, volume, mix, retention, and elasticity;
|
|
82
|
+
examine channels and utility; test inflation, scarcity, and promotion as alternatives.
|
|
83
|
+
- **Output:** A pricing-and-distribution scorecard with mechanism evidence,
|
|
84
|
+
alternatives, and direction.
|
|
85
|
+
- **Limits:** Price increases can reflect inflation or scarcity; awareness and past
|
|
86
|
+
margins are insufficient.
|
|
87
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
88
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1983 annual letter** — *supports*: consumer franchise and low
|
|
89
|
+
cost position create goodwill.
|
|
90
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1993 annual letter** — *supports*: brands products and
|
|
91
|
+
distribution create protective moats.
|
|
92
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; BH2014; BH2023; LOW ch.9 (See’s brand pricing case).
|
|
93
|
+
|
|
94
|
+
<a id="b04"></a>
|
|
@@ -1,97 +1,7 @@
|
|
|
1
|
-
# Business Economics and Competitive Position
|
|
1
|
+
# Business Economics and Competitive Position · Part 2 of 2 (B04-B07)
|
|
2
2
|
|
|
3
|
-
|
|
4
|
-
|
|
5
|
-
return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
|
|
6
|
-
|
|
7
|
-
Read this file when mapping the business, testing moat mechanisms, reinvestment, or
|
|
8
|
-
structural change. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole
|
|
9
|
-
module by default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
|
|
10
|
-
[source key](00-source-key.md).
|
|
11
|
-
|
|
12
|
-
## Card Index
|
|
13
|
-
|
|
14
|
-
| Card | Decision question |
|
|
15
|
-
| --- | --- |
|
|
16
|
-
| [B01](#b01) | How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash, required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash? |
|
|
17
|
-
| [B02](#b02) | What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or eroding? |
|
|
18
|
-
| [B03](#b03) | Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing support durable economics? |
|
|
19
|
-
| [B04](#b04) | Does a non-brand mechanism durably alter delivered cost, customer switching, competitor entry, or network utility? |
|
|
20
|
-
| [B05](#b05) | Will price-taking, excess capacity, and required reinvestment consume apparent earnings or growth? |
|
|
21
|
-
| [B06](#b06) | Can the business deploy material additional capital at attractive normalized returns for long enough to affect owner value? |
|
|
22
|
-
| [B07](#b07) | Is weakness temporary and bounded, or caused by persistent economics that additional effort and capital are unlikely to repair? |
|
|
23
|
-
|
|
24
|
-
## Complete Cards
|
|
25
|
-
|
|
26
|
-
<a id="b01"></a>
|
|
27
|
-
|
|
28
|
-
### B01 — Map How the Business Earns and Converts a Dollar
|
|
29
|
-
|
|
30
|
-
- **Decision question:** How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash,
|
|
31
|
-
required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash?
|
|
32
|
-
- **Guidance:** Build a causal model from transaction and unit economics through working
|
|
33
|
-
capital, maintenance, growth funding, and owner cash, then reconcile it to reported
|
|
34
|
-
totals.
|
|
35
|
-
- **Use when:** Initial analysis, a changed business model, unexplained cash conversion,
|
|
36
|
-
or a forecast with unclear operating mechanics.
|
|
37
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Map revenue drivers, unit economics, and costs; trace required
|
|
38
|
-
and optional reinvestment; reconcile to reported cash and segments.
|
|
39
|
-
- **Output:** A one-page business-model map and dollar-conversion bridge with explicit
|
|
40
|
-
gaps.
|
|
41
|
-
- **Limits:** A coherent map does not prove durability or value; unresolved segment,
|
|
42
|
-
unit, or reinvestment data leave the map unresolved.
|
|
43
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
44
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
|
|
45
|
-
through cash flow economics.
|
|
46
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1977 annual letter** — *illustrates*: See’s capital light
|
|
47
|
-
earnings growth.
|
|
48
|
-
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; EWB §V.D; OM1996.
|
|
49
|
-
|
|
50
|
-
<a id="b02"></a>
|
|
51
|
-
|
|
52
|
-
### B02 — Identify a Causal Moat and Track Its Direction
|
|
53
|
-
|
|
54
|
-
- **Decision question:** What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or
|
|
55
|
-
eroding?
|
|
56
|
-
- **Guidance:** Name the mechanism, behavior it changes, and economics it protects;
|
|
57
|
-
track direction with business-specific evidence rather than labels.
|
|
58
|
-
- **Use when:** A thesis claims durable quality, excess returns, franchise value, or
|
|
59
|
-
competitive advantage.
|
|
60
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** State the mechanism and protected benefit; describe the
|
|
61
|
-
strongest plausible attack; track strengthening and erosion indicators.
|
|
62
|
-
- **Output:** A causal moat map with mechanism, protected economics, attack path,
|
|
63
|
-
indicators, and unresolved links.
|
|
64
|
-
- **Limits:** Reputation, market share, and historical returns do not alone prove a
|
|
65
|
-
moat.
|
|
66
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
67
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: widening the moat.
|
|
68
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *illustrates*: GEICO direct distribution
|
|
69
|
-
created structural cost advantage.
|
|
70
|
-
- **Corroboration:** BH1981; BH2007; BH2014; LOW ch.3 (GEICO cost-advantage discovery).
|
|
71
|
-
|
|
72
|
-
<a id="b03"></a>
|
|
73
|
-
|
|
74
|
-
### B03 — Test Pricing Power, Brand, and Distribution Strength
|
|
75
|
-
|
|
76
|
-
- **Decision question:** Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing
|
|
77
|
-
support durable economics?
|
|
78
|
-
- **Guidance:** Treat brand and distribution as mechanisms only when price realization,
|
|
79
|
-
retention, volume, utility, and channel evidence show a durable behavioral effect.
|
|
80
|
-
- **Use when:** Brand, loyalty, distribution, or pricing power is central to the thesis.
|
|
81
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Decompose price, volume, mix, retention, and elasticity;
|
|
82
|
-
examine channels and utility; test inflation, scarcity, and promotion as alternatives.
|
|
83
|
-
- **Output:** A pricing-and-distribution scorecard with mechanism evidence,
|
|
84
|
-
alternatives, and direction.
|
|
85
|
-
- **Limits:** Price increases can reflect inflation or scarcity; awareness and past
|
|
86
|
-
margins are insufficient.
|
|
87
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
88
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1983 annual letter** — *supports*: consumer franchise and low
|
|
89
|
-
cost position create goodwill.
|
|
90
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1993 annual letter** — *supports*: brands products and
|
|
91
|
-
distribution create protective moats.
|
|
92
|
-
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; BH2014; BH2023; LOW ch.9 (See’s brand pricing case).
|
|
93
|
-
|
|
94
|
-
<a id="b04"></a>
|
|
3
|
+
Cards B04, B05, B06, B07 of this module. Part 1 (`02-business-economics-B01-B03.md`) holds the module title and card index.
|
|
4
|
+
Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
|
|
95
5
|
|
|
96
6
|
### B04 — Test Cost, Scale, Switching, Network, and Efficient-Scale Advantages
|
|
97
7
|
|
|
@@ -118,96 +118,3 @@ Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the [source key](00-source-key.md
|
|
|
118
118
|
- **Corroboration:** EWB §I.E; OM1996; FL2025.
|
|
119
119
|
|
|
120
120
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<a id="m05"></a>
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121
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-
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122
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### M05 — Test Culture and the Institutional Imperative Through Behavior
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123
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-
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124
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- **Decision question:** Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract,
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125
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reward, normalize, and reproduce?
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126
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- **Guidance:** Treat culture as a system expressed through hiring, incentives,
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127
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-
forecasts, costs, imitation, and reactions to mistakes—not declared values.
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128
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-
- **Use when:** A thesis depends on durable organizational behavior, acquisition
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129
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appetite, cost discipline, forecasting, or decentralization.
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130
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- **Analytical actions:** Identify repeated behaviors; trace reinforcing mechanisms;
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131
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search for actions contradicting the declared culture.
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132
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- **Output:** A culture-mechanism map with reinforcing behaviors, contradictions, and
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133
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change indicators.
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134
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- **Limits:** Culture is neither automatic nor irreversible; leave durability unresolved
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135
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when evidence is anecdotal or leader dependent.
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136
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- **Source basis:**
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137
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *defines*: institutional imperative.
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138
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: long term growth forecasts
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139
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can corrupt managerial behavior.
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140
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BH2002; BH2014.
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141
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-
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142
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<a id="m06"></a>
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143
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-
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144
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### M06 — Assess Decentralization, Controls, and Bad-News Flow
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145
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-
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146
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- **Decision question:** Does authority sit with capable operators while audit,
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147
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-
compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective?
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148
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- **Guidance:** Evaluate autonomy and control together; decentralization requires
|
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149
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-
capable managers, protected escalation, and explicit retained controls.
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150
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-
- **Use when:** Decentralized groups, holding companies, autonomous subsidiaries, or
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151
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-
multilayer information flow.
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152
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-
- **Analytical actions:** Map delegated and retained authorities; test audit,
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153
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-
compliance, whistleblower, and bad-news channels; review detection and correction of
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154
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-
errors.
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155
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-
- **Output:** An authority-and-control matrix with escalation paths, failure examples,
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156
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-
and unresolved dependencies.
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157
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-
- **Limits:** Centralization can also fail and visible mistakes may be an accepted cost;
|
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158
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absent incident evidence leaves control quality unresolved.
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159
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-
- **Source basis:**
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160
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-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1991 annual letter** — *implements*: decentralize operations
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161
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-
centralize capital allocation.
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162
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-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2004 annual letter** — *qualifies*: decentralized companies
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163
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-
need protected whistleblower channel.
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164
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- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; LOW ch.15 (two-level control structure).
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165
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-
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166
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-
<a id="m07"></a>
|
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167
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-
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168
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### M07 — Test Substantive Board Independence and Power
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169
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170
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- **Decision question:** Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management
|
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171
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-
when owner interests require it?
|
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172
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-
- **Guidance:** Judge independence by competence, economic independence, information,
|
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173
|
-
deliberation, and willingness to oppose or replace management—not formal labels.
|
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174
|
-
- **Use when:** Board oversight, CEO power, deals, compensation, conflicts, or
|
|
175
|
-
controlling ownership affects the thesis.
|
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176
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Map skills, ties, information, and voting power; inspect
|
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177
|
-
dissent mechanisms; review behavior during conflicts or underperformance.
|
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178
|
-
- **Output:** A board-power assessment separating formal status from demonstrated
|
|
179
|
-
capability and action.
|
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180
|
-
- **Limits:** Ownership and private sessions do not create judgment; unobservable
|
|
181
|
-
conflict behavior leaves independence unresolved.
|
|
182
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
183
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *supports*: business savvy is
|
|
184
|
-
indispensable for corporate directors.
|
|
185
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2019 annual letter** — *implements*: boards should hear
|
|
186
|
-
informed opposition to acquisitions.
|
|
187
|
-
- **Corroboration:** EWB §I.B; BH2014; FL2025.
|
|
188
|
-
|
|
189
|
-
<a id="m08"></a>
|
|
190
|
-
|
|
191
|
-
### M08 — Assess Role-Specific Succession and Control Continuity
|
|
192
|
-
|
|
193
|
-
- **Decision question:** Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles
|
|
194
|
-
transfer without losing capability or fair treatment?
|
|
195
|
-
- **Guidance:** Assess succession by role, horizon, emergency readiness, delegated
|
|
196
|
-
experience, and control-transfer mechanics; a name is not proof.
|
|
197
|
-
- **Use when:** Key-person dependence, controlling ownership, aging leadership, estate
|
|
198
|
-
plans, voting arrangements, or role concentration.
|
|
199
|
-
- **Analytical actions:** Separate role successions; inspect emergency and long-term
|
|
200
|
-
plans and staged responsibility; map voting, estate, and sale mechanics.
|
|
201
|
-
- **Output:** A role-specific continuity map with successor evidence, control
|
|
202
|
-
transitions, triggers, and unresolved dependencies.
|
|
203
|
-
- **Limits:** Private plans may remain undisclosed and legal or tax mechanics can
|
|
204
|
-
change; names or assurances alone leave readiness unresolved.
|
|
205
|
-
- **Source basis:**
|
|
206
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: succession role separation.
|
|
207
|
-
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *implements*: document emergency
|
|
208
|
-
successors with strengths and weaknesses.
|
|
209
|
-
- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; FL2025.
|
|
210
|
-
|
|
211
|
-
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# Management, Governance, and Culture · Part 2 of 2 (M05-M08)
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2
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3
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Cards M05, M06, M07, M08 of this module. Part 1 (`03-management-governance-M01-M04.md`) holds the module title and card index.
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4
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+
Each part is sized to arrive complete in one `read`; open the part you need before concluding a card is absent.
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5
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+
|
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6
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+
### M05 — Test Culture and the Institutional Imperative Through Behavior
|
|
7
|
+
|
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8
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+
- **Decision question:** Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract,
|
|
9
|
+
reward, normalize, and reproduce?
|
|
10
|
+
- **Guidance:** Treat culture as a system expressed through hiring, incentives,
|
|
11
|
+
forecasts, costs, imitation, and reactions to mistakes—not declared values.
|
|
12
|
+
- **Use when:** A thesis depends on durable organizational behavior, acquisition
|
|
13
|
+
appetite, cost discipline, forecasting, or decentralization.
|
|
14
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Identify repeated behaviors; trace reinforcing mechanisms;
|
|
15
|
+
search for actions contradicting the declared culture.
|
|
16
|
+
- **Output:** A culture-mechanism map with reinforcing behaviors, contradictions, and
|
|
17
|
+
change indicators.
|
|
18
|
+
- **Limits:** Culture is neither automatic nor irreversible; leave durability unresolved
|
|
19
|
+
when evidence is anecdotal or leader dependent.
|
|
20
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
21
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *defines*: institutional imperative.
|
|
22
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: long term growth forecasts
|
|
23
|
+
can corrupt managerial behavior.
|
|
24
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BH2002; BH2014.
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
<a id="m06"></a>
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
### M06 — Assess Decentralization, Controls, and Bad-News Flow
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
|
+
- **Decision question:** Does authority sit with capable operators while audit,
|
|
31
|
+
compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective?
|
|
32
|
+
- **Guidance:** Evaluate autonomy and control together; decentralization requires
|
|
33
|
+
capable managers, protected escalation, and explicit retained controls.
|
|
34
|
+
- **Use when:** Decentralized groups, holding companies, autonomous subsidiaries, or
|
|
35
|
+
multilayer information flow.
|
|
36
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Map delegated and retained authorities; test audit,
|
|
37
|
+
compliance, whistleblower, and bad-news channels; review detection and correction of
|
|
38
|
+
errors.
|
|
39
|
+
- **Output:** An authority-and-control matrix with escalation paths, failure examples,
|
|
40
|
+
and unresolved dependencies.
|
|
41
|
+
- **Limits:** Centralization can also fail and visible mistakes may be an accepted cost;
|
|
42
|
+
absent incident evidence leaves control quality unresolved.
|
|
43
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
44
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1991 annual letter** — *implements*: decentralize operations
|
|
45
|
+
centralize capital allocation.
|
|
46
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2004 annual letter** — *qualifies*: decentralized companies
|
|
47
|
+
need protected whistleblower channel.
|
|
48
|
+
- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; LOW ch.15 (two-level control structure).
|
|
49
|
+
|
|
50
|
+
<a id="m07"></a>
|
|
51
|
+
|
|
52
|
+
### M07 — Test Substantive Board Independence and Power
|
|
53
|
+
|
|
54
|
+
- **Decision question:** Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management
|
|
55
|
+
when owner interests require it?
|
|
56
|
+
- **Guidance:** Judge independence by competence, economic independence, information,
|
|
57
|
+
deliberation, and willingness to oppose or replace management—not formal labels.
|
|
58
|
+
- **Use when:** Board oversight, CEO power, deals, compensation, conflicts, or
|
|
59
|
+
controlling ownership affects the thesis.
|
|
60
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Map skills, ties, information, and voting power; inspect
|
|
61
|
+
dissent mechanisms; review behavior during conflicts or underperformance.
|
|
62
|
+
- **Output:** A board-power assessment separating formal status from demonstrated
|
|
63
|
+
capability and action.
|
|
64
|
+
- **Limits:** Ownership and private sessions do not create judgment; unobservable
|
|
65
|
+
conflict behavior leaves independence unresolved.
|
|
66
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
67
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *supports*: business savvy is
|
|
68
|
+
indispensable for corporate directors.
|
|
69
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2019 annual letter** — *implements*: boards should hear
|
|
70
|
+
informed opposition to acquisitions.
|
|
71
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §I.B; BH2014; FL2025.
|
|
72
|
+
|
|
73
|
+
<a id="m08"></a>
|
|
74
|
+
|
|
75
|
+
### M08 — Assess Role-Specific Succession and Control Continuity
|
|
76
|
+
|
|
77
|
+
- **Decision question:** Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles
|
|
78
|
+
transfer without losing capability or fair treatment?
|
|
79
|
+
- **Guidance:** Assess succession by role, horizon, emergency readiness, delegated
|
|
80
|
+
experience, and control-transfer mechanics; a name is not proof.
|
|
81
|
+
- **Use when:** Key-person dependence, controlling ownership, aging leadership, estate
|
|
82
|
+
plans, voting arrangements, or role concentration.
|
|
83
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Separate role successions; inspect emergency and long-term
|
|
84
|
+
plans and staged responsibility; map voting, estate, and sale mechanics.
|
|
85
|
+
- **Output:** A role-specific continuity map with successor evidence, control
|
|
86
|
+
transitions, triggers, and unresolved dependencies.
|
|
87
|
+
- **Limits:** Private plans may remain undisclosed and legal or tax mechanics can
|
|
88
|
+
change; names or assurances alone leave readiness unresolved.
|
|
89
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
90
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: succession role separation.
|
|
91
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *implements*: document emergency
|
|
92
|
+
successors with strengths and weaknesses.
|
|
93
|
+
- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; FL2025.
|
|
94
|
+
|
|
95
|
+
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