@timmeck/brain-core 2.9.1 → 2.11.0

package/dist/prediction/tracker.js

@@ -0,0 +1,221 @@
+// ── Prediction Tracker — DB-backed Storage + Resolution ──────
+export class PredictionTracker {
+    db;
+    constructor(db) {
+        this.db = db;
+    }
+    /** Store a new prediction in the DB. */
+    store(prediction) {
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO predictions (
+        prediction_id, domain, metric, predicted_value, predicted_direction,
+        confidence, horizon_ms, reasoning, method, status,
+        created_at, expires_at, evidence
+      ) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
+    `).run(prediction.prediction_id, prediction.domain, prediction.metric, prediction.predicted_value, prediction.predicted_direction, prediction.confidence, prediction.horizon_ms, prediction.reasoning, prediction.method, prediction.status, prediction.created_at, prediction.expires_at, JSON.stringify(prediction.evidence));
+        return prediction.prediction_id;
+    }
+    /** Resolve a prediction against actual value. Returns the determined status. */
+    resolve(predictionId, actualValue) {
+        const row = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT * FROM predictions WHERE prediction_id = ?
+    `).get(predictionId);
+        if (!row)
+            return 'expired';
+        const predicted = row.predicted_value;
+        const predictedDir = row.predicted_direction;
+        // Calculate error
+        const error = predicted !== 0
+            ? Math.abs(predicted - actualValue) / Math.abs(predicted)
+            : Math.abs(actualValue);
+        // Determine actual direction
+        let actualDir;
+        if (actualValue > predicted * 1.02)
+            actualDir = 'up';
+        else if (actualValue < predicted * 0.98)
+            actualDir = 'down';
+        else
+            actualDir = 'stable';
+        const directionCorrect = predictedDir === actualDir;
+        // Determine status
+        let status;
+        if (error < 0.10 && directionCorrect) {
+            status = 'correct';
+        }
+        else if (error < 0.25 || directionCorrect) {
+            status = 'partial';
+        }
+        else {
+            status = 'wrong';
+        }
+        const now = Date.now();
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      UPDATE predictions SET
+        status = ?, actual_value = ?, error = ?, resolved_at = ?
+      WHERE prediction_id = ?
+    `).run(status, actualValue, error, now, predictionId);
+        return status;
+    }
+    /** List predictions with optional filters. */
+    list(domain, status, limit = 50) {
+        let sql = 'SELECT * FROM predictions WHERE 1=1';
+        const params = [];
+        if (domain) {
+            sql += ' AND domain = ?';
+            params.push(domain);
+        }
+        if (status) {
+            sql += ' AND status = ?';
+            params.push(status);
+        }
+        sql += ' ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT ?';
+        params.push(limit);
+        const rows = this.db.prepare(sql).all(...params);
+        return rows.map(r => this.rowToPrediction(r));
+    }
+    /** Get accuracy statistics, optionally by domain. */
+    getAccuracy(domain) {
+        let sql = `
+      SELECT
+        domain,
+        COUNT(*) as total,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN status = 'correct' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as correct,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN status = 'wrong' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as wrong,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN status = 'partial' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as partial,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN status = 'expired' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as expired,
+        AVG(CASE WHEN error IS NOT NULL THEN error ELSE NULL END) as mean_error,
+        AVG(confidence) as avg_confidence
+      FROM predictions
+      WHERE status != 'pending'
+    `;
+        const params = [];
+        if (domain) {
+            sql += ' AND domain = ?';
+            params.push(domain);
+        }
+        sql += ' GROUP BY domain';
+        const rows = this.db.prepare(sql).all(...params);
+        return rows.map(r => {
+            const total = r.total;
+            const correct = r.correct;
+            const wrong = r.wrong;
+            const partial = r.partial;
+            const expired = r.expired;
+            // Direction accuracy: correct + partial count as direction-correct
+            const resolved = total - expired;
+            const directionCorrect = correct + partial;
+            // Calibration score: how close avg confidence is to actual accuracy
+            const actualAccuracy = resolved > 0 ? correct / resolved : 0;
+            const avgConfidence = r.avg_confidence;
+            const calibrationScore = 1 - Math.abs(actualAccuracy - avgConfidence);
+            return {
+                domain: r.domain,
+                total,
+                correct,
+                wrong,
+                partial,
+                expired,
+                accuracy_rate: resolved > 0 ? correct / resolved : 0,
+                mean_absolute_error: r.mean_error ?? 0,
+                calibration_score: Math.max(0, calibrationScore),
+                direction_accuracy: resolved > 0 ? directionCorrect / resolved : 0,
+            };
+        });
+    }
+    /** Get calibration offset — average (confidence - actual_accuracy) across buckets. */
+    getCalibrationOffset() {
+        const buckets = this.getCalibrationBuckets();
+        if (buckets.length === 0)
+            return 0;
+        let totalOffset = 0;
+        let count = 0;
+        for (const b of buckets) {
+            if (b.predicted_count >= 3) {
+                const midpoint = (b.range_start + b.range_end) / 2;
+                totalOffset += midpoint - b.actual_accuracy;
+                count++;
+            }
+        }
+        return count > 0 ? totalOffset / count : 0;
+    }
+    /** Get calibration buckets for confidence adjustment. */
+    getCalibrationBuckets() {
+        const bucketRanges = [
+            [0.0, 0.2], [0.2, 0.4], [0.4, 0.6], [0.6, 0.8], [0.8, 1.01],
+        ];
+        const buckets = [];
+        for (const [start, end] of bucketRanges) {
+            const row = this.db.prepare(`
+        SELECT
+          COUNT(*) as total,
+          SUM(CASE WHEN status = 'correct' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as correct
+        FROM predictions
+        WHERE status != 'pending'
+          AND confidence >= ? AND confidence < ?
+      `).get(start, end);
+            const total = row.total ?? 0;
+            const correct = row.correct ?? 0;
+            buckets.push({
+                range_start: start,
+                range_end: end === 1.01 ? 1.0 : end,
+                predicted_count: total,
+                actual_accuracy: total > 0 ? correct / total : 0,
+            });
+        }
+        return buckets;
+    }
+    /** Get pending predictions that have expired (past expires_at). */
+    getPendingExpired() {
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const rows = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT * FROM predictions
+      WHERE status = 'pending' AND expires_at < ?
+      ORDER BY created_at ASC
+    `).all(now);
+        return rows.map(r => this.rowToPrediction(r));
+    }
+    /** Get pending predictions that are within their horizon (ready for resolution check). */
+    getPendingResolvable() {
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const rows = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT * FROM predictions
+      WHERE status = 'pending' AND (created_at + horizon_ms) <= ? AND expires_at >= ?
+      ORDER BY created_at ASC
+    `).all(now, now);
+        return rows.map(r => this.rowToPrediction(r));
+    }
+    /** Mark a prediction as expired. */
+    markExpired(predictionId) {
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      UPDATE predictions SET status = 'expired', resolved_at = ? WHERE prediction_id = ?
+    `).run(Date.now(), predictionId);
+    }
+    /** Get metrics with pending predictions (to skip in autoPredictAll). */
+    getMetricsWithPending() {
+        const rows = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT DISTINCT metric FROM predictions WHERE status = 'pending'
+    `).all();
+        return new Set(rows.map(r => r.metric));
+    }
+    rowToPrediction(r) {
+        return {
+            prediction_id: r.prediction_id,
+            domain: r.domain,
+            metric: r.metric,
+            predicted_value: r.predicted_value,
+            predicted_direction: r.predicted_direction,
+            confidence: r.confidence,
+            horizon_ms: r.horizon_ms,
+            reasoning: r.reasoning,
+            method: r.method,
+            status: r.status,
+            actual_value: r.actual_value,
+            error: r.error,
+            created_at: r.created_at,
+            resolved_at: r.resolved_at,
+            expires_at: r.expires_at,
+            evidence: typeof r.evidence === 'string' ? JSON.parse(r.evidence) : r.evidence ?? {},
+        };
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=tracker.js.map

package/dist/prediction/tracker.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/prediction/types.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
+export type PredictionDomain = 'error' | 'trade' | 'engagement' | 'metric' | 'custom';
+export type PredictionStatus = 'pending' | 'correct' | 'wrong' | 'expired' | 'partial';
+export interface PredictionEngineConfig {
+    brainName: string;
+    /** Default forecast horizon in ms. Default: 3_600_000 (1h) */
+    defaultHorizonMs?: number;
+    /** Max time before prediction expires in ms. Default: 86_400_000 (24h) */
+    expirationMs?: number;
+    /** EWMA smoothing factor (0–1). Default: 0.3 */
+    ewmaAlpha?: number;
+    /** Holt-Winters trend smoothing factor (0–1). Default: 0.1 */
+    trendBeta?: number;
+    /** Min data points for Holt-Winters (falls back to EWMA below). Default: 5 */
+    minDataPoints?: number;
+    /** Predictions below this confidence are suppressed. Default: 0.3 */
+    minConfidence?: number;
+    /** Max predictions generated per autoPredictAll cycle. Default: 5 */
+    maxPredictionsPerCycle?: number;
+    /** Interval for resolving expired predictions in ms. Default: 60_000 (1 min) */
+    resolveIntervalMs?: number;
+}
+export interface Prediction {
+    prediction_id: string;
+    domain: PredictionDomain;
+    metric: string;
+    predicted_value: number;
+    predicted_direction: 'up' | 'down' | 'stable';
+    confidence: number;
+    horizon_ms: number;
+    reasoning: string;
+    method: 'ewma' | 'holt_winters';
+    status: PredictionStatus;
+    actual_value?: number;
+    error?: number;
+    created_at: number;
+    resolved_at?: number;
+    expires_at: number;
+    evidence: Record<string, unknown>;
+}
+export interface PredictionAccuracy {
+    domain: PredictionDomain;
+    total: number;
+    correct: number;
+    wrong: number;
+    partial: number;
+    expired: number;
+    accuracy_rate: number;
+    mean_absolute_error: number;
+    calibration_score: number;
+    direction_accuracy: number;
+}
+export interface PredictionSummary {
+    total_predictions: number;
+    pending: number;
+    resolved: number;
+    accuracy_rate: number;
+    by_domain: PredictionAccuracy[];
+    calibration_offset: number;
+    recent: Prediction[];
+}
+export interface ForecastResult {
+    value: number;
+    trend: number;
+    confidence: number;
+    direction: 'up' | 'down' | 'stable';
+    method: 'ewma' | 'holt_winters';
+    dataPoints: number;
+}
+export interface PredictionInput {
+    domain: PredictionDomain;
+    metric: string;
+    horizon_ms?: number;
+    reasoning?: string;
+    evidence?: Record<string, unknown>;
+}
+export interface MetricDataPoint {
+    value: number;
+    timestamp: number;
+}
+export interface CalibrationBucket {
+    range_start: number;
+    range_end: number;
+    predicted_count: number;
+    actual_accuracy: number;
+}

package/dist/prediction/types.js

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+// ── Prediction Engine Types ─────────────────────────────────
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=types.js.map

package/dist/prediction/types.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"types.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/prediction/types.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,+DAA+D"}

package/dist/research/research-orchestrator.d.ts

@@ -12,6 +12,8 @@ import type { CausalGraph } from '../causal/engine.js';
 import type { ResearchCycleReport } from './autonomous-scheduler.js';
 import type { DataMiner } from './data-miner.js';
 import type { DreamEngine } from '../dream/dream-engine.js';
+import type { ThoughtStream } from '../consciousness/thought-stream.js';
+import type { PredictionEngine } from '../prediction/prediction-engine.js';
 export interface ResearchOrchestratorConfig {
     brainName: string;
     /** Feedback loop interval in ms. Default: 300_000 (5 min) */
@@ -35,6 +37,8 @@ export declare class ResearchOrchestrator {
     readonly journal: ResearchJournal;
     private dataMiner;
     private dreamEngine;
+    private thoughtStream;
+    private predictionEngine;
     private brainName;
     private feedbackTimer;
     private cycleCount;
@@ -47,6 +51,10 @@ export declare class ResearchOrchestrator {
     setDataMiner(miner: DataMiner): void;
     /** Set the DreamEngine — wires journal + knowledgeDistiller into it. */
     setDreamEngine(engine: DreamEngine): void;
+    /** Set the ThoughtStream for consciousness — emits thoughts at each step. */
+    setThoughtStream(stream: ThoughtStream): void;
+    /** Set the PredictionEngine — wires journal into it. */
+    setPredictionEngine(engine: PredictionEngine): void;
     /** Start the autonomous feedback loop timer. */
     start(intervalMs?: number): void;
     /** Stop the feedback loop. */

package/dist/research/research-orchestrator.js

@@ -21,6 +21,8 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
     journal;
     dataMiner = null;
     dreamEngine = null;
+    thoughtStream = null;
+    predictionEngine = null;
     brainName;
     feedbackTimer = null;
     cycleCount = 0;
@@ -53,6 +55,15 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
         engine.setJournal(this.journal);
         engine.setKnowledgeDistiller(this.knowledgeDistiller);
     }
+    /** Set the ThoughtStream for consciousness — emits thoughts at each step. */
+    setThoughtStream(stream) {
+        this.thoughtStream = stream;
+    }
+    /** Set the PredictionEngine — wires journal into it. */
+    setPredictionEngine(engine) {
+        this.predictionEngine = engine;
+        engine.setJournal(this.journal);
+    }
     /** Start the autonomous feedback loop timer. */
     start(intervalMs = 300_000) {
         if (this.feedbackTimer)
@@ -131,28 +142,40 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
     runFeedbackCycle() {
         this.cycleCount++;
         const start = Date.now();
+        const ts = this.thoughtStream;
         this.log.info(`[orchestrator] ─── Feedback Cycle #${this.cycleCount} ───`);
+        ts?.emit('orchestrator', 'perceiving', `Feedback Cycle #${this.cycleCount} starting...`);
         // 0. DataMiner: mine new data from DB into engines
         if (this.dataMiner) {
+            ts?.emit('data_miner', 'perceiving', 'Scanning for new data...');
             try {
                 this.dataMiner.mine();
+                ts?.emit('data_miner', 'perceiving', 'Data scan complete');
             }
             catch (err) {
                 this.log.error(`[orchestrator] DataMiner error: ${err.message}`);
             }
         }
         // 1. Self-observer analyzes accumulated observations → insights
+        ts?.emit('self_observer', 'analyzing', 'Analyzing system activity...');
         const insights = this.selfObserver.analyze();
         if (insights.length > 0) {
             this.log.info(`[orchestrator] Self-observer: ${insights.length} insights`);
+            ts?.emit('self_observer', 'discovering', `Found ${insights.length} insight${insights.length > 1 ? 's' : ''}: ${insights.map(i => i.title).join(', ')}`, insights.some(i => i.confidence > 0.8) ? 'notable' : 'routine');
             for (const insight of insights) {
                 this.journal.recordDiscovery(insight.title, insight.description, { ...insight.evidence, type: insight.type, confidence: insight.confidence }, insight.confidence > 0.8 ? 'notable' : 'routine');
             }
         }
+        else {
+            ts?.emit('self_observer', 'analyzing', 'No new insights this cycle');
+        }
         // 2. Anomaly detection
+        ts?.emit('anomaly_detective', 'analyzing', 'Scanning metrics for anomalies...');
         const anomalies = this.anomalyDetective.detect();
         if (anomalies.length > 0) {
             this.log.info(`[orchestrator] Anomalies detected: ${anomalies.length}`);
+            const hasCritical = anomalies.some(a => a.severity === 'critical');
+            ts?.emit('anomaly_detective', 'discovering', `Detected ${anomalies.length} anomal${anomalies.length > 1 ? 'ies' : 'y'}: ${anomalies.map(a => `${a.metric} (${a.severity})`).join(', ')}`, hasCritical ? 'breakthrough' : 'notable');
             for (const a of anomalies) {
                 this.journal.write({
                     type: 'anomaly',
@@ -165,17 +188,29 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
                 });
             }
         }
+        else {
+            ts?.emit('anomaly_detective', 'analyzing', 'No anomalies detected');
+        }
         // 3. Cross-domain correlation analysis
+        ts?.emit('cross_domain', 'correlating', 'Analyzing cross-brain event correlations...');
         const correlations = this.crossDomain.analyze();
         const significant = correlations.filter(c => Math.abs(c.correlation) > 0.5 && c.p_value < 0.05);
         if (significant.length > 0) {
             this.log.info(`[orchestrator] Cross-domain: ${significant.length} significant correlations`);
+            ts?.emit('cross_domain', 'discovering', `Found ${significant.length} significant correlation${significant.length > 1 ? 's' : ''}`, 'notable');
             for (const corr of significant) {
                 this.journal.recordDiscovery(`Cross-domain: ${corr.source_brain}:${corr.source_event} → ${corr.target_brain}:${corr.target_event}`, corr.narrative, { correlation: corr.correlation, pValue: corr.p_value, lag: corr.lag_seconds }, 'notable');
             }
         }
+        else {
+            ts?.emit('cross_domain', 'correlating', 'No significant correlations this cycle');
+        }
         // 4. Adaptive strategy: check for regressions and revert
+        ts?.emit('adaptive_strategy', 'analyzing', 'Checking for strategy regressions...');
         const reverted = this.adaptiveStrategy.checkAndRevert(this.cycleCount);
+        if (reverted.length > 0) {
+            ts?.emit('adaptive_strategy', 'discovering', `Reverted ${reverted.length} strategy adaptation${reverted.length > 1 ? 's' : ''}: ${reverted.map(r => r.parameter).join(', ')}`, 'notable');
+        }
         for (const r of reverted) {
             this.journal.write({
                 type: 'adaptation',
@@ -188,12 +223,14 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
             });
         }
         // 5. Check running experiments
+        ts?.emit('experiment', 'experimenting', 'Checking running experiments...');
         const experiments = this.experimentEngine.list();
         for (const exp of experiments) {
             if (exp.status === 'analyzing' && exp.id) {
                 const result = this.experimentEngine.analyze(exp.id);
                 if (result?.conclusion) {
                     const sig = result.conclusion.significant;
+                    ts?.emit('experiment', 'discovering', `Experiment "${exp.name}": ${sig ? result.conclusion.direction : 'inconclusive'} (p=${result.conclusion.p_value.toFixed(4)})`, sig ? 'notable' : 'routine');
                     this.journal.recordExperiment(exp.name, sig ? (result.conclusion.direction === 'positive' ? 'confirmed' : 'rejected') : 'inconclusive', { conclusion: result.conclusion, hypothesis: exp.hypothesis }, sig);
                     this.log.info(`[orchestrator] Experiment "${exp.name}": ${sig ? result.conclusion.direction : 'inconclusive'} (p=${result.conclusion.p_value.toFixed(4)}, d=${result.conclusion.effect_size.toFixed(2)})`);
                 }
@@ -201,23 +238,49 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
         }
         // 6. Knowledge distillation (periodic)
         if (this.cycleCount % this.distillEvery === 0) {
+            ts?.emit('knowledge_distiller', 'analyzing', 'Distilling knowledge from journal...');
             const { principles, antiPatterns, strategies } = this.knowledgeDistiller.distill();
-            if (principles.length + antiPatterns.length + strategies.length > 0) {
+            const total = principles.length + antiPatterns.length + strategies.length;
+            if (total > 0) {
                 this.log.info(`[orchestrator] Knowledge distilled: ${principles.length} principles, ${antiPatterns.length} anti-patterns, ${strategies.length} strategies`);
+                ts?.emit('knowledge_distiller', 'discovering', `Distilled ${total} knowledge items: ${principles.length} principles, ${antiPatterns.length} anti-patterns, ${strategies.length} strategies`, 'notable');
+            }
+            else {
+                ts?.emit('knowledge_distiller', 'analyzing', 'No new knowledge to distill');
             }
         }
         // 7. Research agenda generation (periodic)
         if (this.cycleCount % this.agendaEvery === 0) {
+            ts?.emit('research_agenda', 'hypothesizing', 'Generating research agenda...');
             const agenda = this.researchAgenda.generate();
             if (agenda.length > 0) {
                 this.log.info(`[orchestrator] Research agenda: ${agenda.length} items generated`);
+                ts?.emit('research_agenda', 'discovering', `Generated ${agenda.length} research agenda item${agenda.length > 1 ? 's' : ''}`, 'routine');
             }
         }
         // 8. Journal reflection (periodic)
         if (this.cycleCount % this.reflectEvery === 0) {
+            ts?.emit('journal', 'reflecting', 'Reflecting on recent journal entries...');
             this.journal.reflect();
+            ts?.emit('journal', 'reflecting', 'Reflection complete', 'notable');
+        }
+        // 9. Prediction Engine: resolve pending + auto-predict
+        if (this.predictionEngine) {
+            ts?.emit('prediction', 'predicting', 'Resolving pending predictions...');
+            const resolved = this.predictionEngine.resolveExpired();
+            if (resolved > 0) {
+                this.log.info(`[orchestrator] Predictions resolved: ${resolved}`);
+                ts?.emit('prediction', 'predicting', `Resolved ${resolved} prediction${resolved > 1 ? 's' : ''}`);
+            }
+            ts?.emit('prediction', 'predicting', 'Generating new predictions...');
+            const newPredictions = this.predictionEngine.autoPredictAll();
+            if (newPredictions.length > 0) {
+                this.log.info(`[orchestrator] New predictions: ${newPredictions.length}`);
+                ts?.emit('prediction', 'predicting', `Generated ${newPredictions.length} prediction${newPredictions.length > 1 ? 's' : ''}`, newPredictions.some(p => p.confidence > 0.7) ? 'notable' : 'routine');
+            }
         }
         const duration = Date.now() - start;
+        ts?.emit('orchestrator', 'reflecting', `Feedback Cycle #${this.cycleCount} complete (${duration}ms)`);
         this.log.info(`[orchestrator] ─── Feedback Cycle #${this.cycleCount} complete (${duration}ms) ───`);
     }
     /** Get a comprehensive research summary for dashboards/API. */
@@ -235,6 +298,7 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
             correlations: this.crossDomain.getCorrelations(10),
             strategy: this.adaptiveStrategy.getStatus(),
             dream: this.dreamEngine?.getStatus() ?? null,
+            prediction: this.predictionEngine?.getSummary() ?? null,
         };
     }
 }

package/dist/research/research-orchestrator.js.map

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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@timmeck/brain-core",
-  "version": "2.9.1",
+  "version": "2.11.0",
   "description": "Shared core infrastructure for the Brain ecosystem — IPC, MCP, CLI, DB connection, and utilities",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "dist/index.js",