@timmeck/brain-core 2.9.1 → 2.11.0

package/dist/prediction/forecaster.js

@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+// ── Prediction Forecaster — Pure Math ────────────────────────
+//
+// Holt-Winters Double Exponential Smoothing + EWMA fallback.
+// No DB dependency — pure functions, easy to test.
+/**
+ * Holt-Winters Double Exponential Smoothing.
+ * Requires ≥ 5 data points. Returns forecast + trend + confidence.
+ *
+ * Level:    l_t = α * y_t + (1-α) * (l_{t-1} + b_{t-1})
+ * Trend:    b_t = β * (l_t - l_{t-1}) + (1-β) * b_{t-1}
+ * Forecast: ŷ_{t+h} = l_t + h * b_t
+ */
+export function holtWintersForecast(data, stepsAhead, alpha = 0.3, beta = 0.1) {
+    if (data.length < 2) {
+        return { value: data[0] ?? 0, trend: 0, confidence: 0.1, direction: 'stable', method: 'holt_winters', dataPoints: data.length };
+    }
+    // Initialize level and trend
+    let level = data[0];
+    let trend = data[1] - data[0];
+    const residuals = [];
+    for (let t = 1; t < data.length; t++) {
+        const y = data[t];
+        const prevLevel = level;
+        // Update level
+        level = alpha * y + (1 - alpha) * (prevLevel + trend);
+        // Update trend
+        trend = beta * (level - prevLevel) + (1 - beta) * trend;
+        // Track residuals for confidence calculation
+        const predicted = prevLevel + trend;
+        residuals.push(Math.abs(y - predicted));
+    }
+    // Forecast
+    const value = level + stepsAhead * trend;
+    // Confidence based on normalized MAE (1 - MAE/range)
+    const mae = residuals.length > 0
+        ? residuals.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / residuals.length
+        : 0;
+    const range = Math.max(...data) - Math.min(...data);
+    const normalizedMae = range > 0 ? mae / range : 0;
+    const confidence = Math.max(0.05, Math.min(0.95, 1 - normalizedMae));
+    // Direction
+    const trendRatio = range > 0 ? Math.abs(trend) / range : 0;
+    let direction;
+    if (trendRatio < 0.02) {
+        direction = 'stable';
+    }
+    else {
+        direction = trend > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
+    }
+    return {
+        value,
+        trend,
+        confidence,
+        direction,
+        method: 'holt_winters',
+        dataPoints: data.length,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Exponentially Weighted Moving Average.
+ * Fallback for < 5 data points.
+ */
+export function ewmaForecast(data, alpha = 0.3) {
+    if (data.length === 0) {
+        return { value: 0, trend: 0, confidence: 0.1, direction: 'stable', method: 'ewma', dataPoints: 0 };
+    }
+    if (data.length === 1) {
+        return { value: data[0], trend: 0, confidence: 0.15, direction: 'stable', method: 'ewma', dataPoints: 1 };
+    }
+    let ewma = data[0];
+    for (let i = 1; i < data.length; i++) {
+        ewma = alpha * data[i] + (1 - alpha) * ewma;
+    }
+    // Simple trend from last two values
+    const last = data[data.length - 1];
+    const prev = data[data.length - 2];
+    const trend = last - prev;
+    // Low confidence for few data points
+    const confidence = Math.min(0.5, 0.15 + data.length * 0.08);
+    // Direction
+    const range = Math.max(...data) - Math.min(...data);
+    const trendRatio = range > 0 ? Math.abs(trend) / range : 0;
+    let direction;
+    if (trendRatio < 0.05) {
+        direction = 'stable';
+    }
+    else {
+        direction = trend > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
+    }
+    return {
+        value: ewma,
+        trend,
+        confidence,
+        direction,
+        method: 'ewma',
+        dataPoints: data.length,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Calibrate raw confidence using historical accuracy buckets.
+ * If the model was overconfident in a range, it adjusts downward — and vice versa.
+ *
+ * Returns value clamped to [0.01, 0.99].
+ */
+export function calibrateConfidence(rawConfidence, buckets) {
+    if (buckets.length === 0)
+        return Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, rawConfidence));
+    // Find the matching bucket
+    const bucket = buckets.find(b => rawConfidence >= b.range_start && rawConfidence < b.range_end);
+    if (!bucket || bucket.predicted_count < 3) {
+        // Not enough data in this bucket — return raw
+        return Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, rawConfidence));
+    }
+    // Adjust: if predicted 0.8 confidence but actual accuracy was 0.6, offset = -0.2
+    const midpoint = (bucket.range_start + bucket.range_end) / 2;
+    const offset = bucket.actual_accuracy - midpoint;
+    const adjusted = rawConfidence + offset;
+    return Math.max(0.01, Math.min(0.99, adjusted));
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=forecaster.js.map

package/dist/prediction/forecaster.js.map

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package/dist/prediction/index.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+export { PredictionEngine, runPredictionMigration } from './prediction-engine.js';
+export { PredictionTracker } from './tracker.js';
+export { holtWintersForecast, ewmaForecast, calibrateConfidence } from './forecaster.js';
+export type { PredictionDomain, PredictionStatus, PredictionEngineConfig, Prediction, PredictionAccuracy, PredictionSummary, ForecastResult, PredictionInput, MetricDataPoint, CalibrationBucket, } from './types.js';

package/dist/prediction/index.js

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+export { PredictionEngine, runPredictionMigration } from './prediction-engine.js';
+export { PredictionTracker } from './tracker.js';
+export { holtWintersForecast, ewmaForecast, calibrateConfidence } from './forecaster.js';
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/prediction/index.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+import type Database from 'better-sqlite3';
+import type { ThoughtStream } from '../consciousness/thought-stream.js';
+import type { ResearchJournal } from '../research/journal.js';
+import type { PredictionEngineConfig, Prediction, PredictionDomain, PredictionStatus, PredictionAccuracy, PredictionSummary, PredictionInput, ForecastResult, MetricDataPoint } from './types.js';
+export declare function runPredictionMigration(db: Database.Database): void;
+export declare class PredictionEngine {
+    private db;
+    private config;
+    private tracker;
+    private thoughtStream;
+    private journal;
+    private timer;
+    private calibrationOffset;
+    private log;
+    constructor(db: Database.Database, config: PredictionEngineConfig);
+    /** Set the ThoughtStream for consciousness integration. */
+    setThoughtStream(stream: ThoughtStream): void;
+    /** Set the Research Journal for logging notable predictions. */
+    setJournal(journal: ResearchJournal): void;
+    /** Start periodic resolution timer. */
+    start(): void;
+    /** Stop the resolution timer. */
+    stop(): void;
+    /** Record a metric data point. Called by domain event handlers. */
+    recordMetric(metric: string, value: number, domain?: PredictionDomain): void;
+    /**
+     * Generate a prediction for a specific metric.
+     * Returns null if insufficient data or confidence too low.
+     */
+    predict(input: PredictionInput): Prediction | null;
+    /**
+     * Auto-predict for all tracked metrics that have enough data.
+     * Skips metrics with pending predictions. Respects maxPredictionsPerCycle.
+     */
+    autoPredictAll(): Prediction[];
+    /**
+     * Resolve expired/due predictions against current metric values.
+     * Returns count of resolved predictions.
+     */
+    resolveExpired(): number;
+    /** List predictions with optional filters. */
+    list(domain?: PredictionDomain, status?: PredictionStatus, limit?: number): Prediction[];
+    /** Get accuracy statistics. */
+    getAccuracy(domain?: PredictionDomain): PredictionAccuracy[];
+    /** Get full prediction summary. */
+    getSummary(): PredictionSummary;
+    /** Run a forecast on raw data. Uses Holt-Winters (≥ minDataPoints) or EWMA. */
+    forecast(data: number[], horizonMs: number): ForecastResult;
+    /** Get metric history as time series. */
+    getMetricHistory(metric: string, limit?: number): MetricDataPoint[];
+    /** Periodic cycle: resolve + auto-predict. */
+    private cycle;
+    /** Recalibrate confidence offset based on historical accuracy. */
+    private recalibrate;
+    /** Apply calibration to raw confidence. */
+    private applyCalibration;
+    /** Get all unique tracked metrics with their domains. */
+    private getTrackedMetrics;
+}

package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js

@@ -0,0 +1,301 @@
+// ── Prediction Engine — Proactive Forecasting ────────────────
+//
+// Records domain metrics, generates Holt-Winters / EWMA predictions,
+// resolves them against reality, and auto-calibrates confidence.
+import { randomUUID } from 'node:crypto';
+import { getLogger } from '../utils/logger.js';
+import { holtWintersForecast, ewmaForecast, calibrateConfidence } from './forecaster.js';
+import { PredictionTracker } from './tracker.js';
+// ── Migration ───────────────────────────────────────────
+export function runPredictionMigration(db) {
+    db.exec(`
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS predictions (
+      id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
+      prediction_id TEXT NOT NULL UNIQUE,
+      domain TEXT NOT NULL,
+      metric TEXT NOT NULL,
+      predicted_value REAL NOT NULL,
+      predicted_direction TEXT NOT NULL,
+      confidence REAL NOT NULL,
+      horizon_ms INTEGER NOT NULL,
+      reasoning TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
+      method TEXT NOT NULL,
+      status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'pending',
+      actual_value REAL,
+      error REAL,
+      created_at INTEGER NOT NULL,
+      resolved_at INTEGER,
+      expires_at INTEGER NOT NULL,
+      evidence TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '{}'
+    );
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_status ON predictions(status);
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_domain ON predictions(domain);
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_metric ON predictions(metric);
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_predictions_expires ON predictions(expires_at);
+
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS prediction_metrics (
+      id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
+      metric TEXT NOT NULL,
+      value REAL NOT NULL,
+      domain TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'metric',
+      timestamp INTEGER NOT NULL
+    );
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_pred_metrics_metric ON prediction_metrics(metric);
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_pred_metrics_ts ON prediction_metrics(timestamp);
+
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS prediction_state (
+      id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY CHECK(id = 1),
+      total_predictions INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      total_resolved INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      total_correct INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      calibration_offset REAL NOT NULL DEFAULT 0.0,
+      updated_at TEXT DEFAULT (datetime('now'))
+    );
+    INSERT OR IGNORE INTO prediction_state (id) VALUES (1);
+  `);
+}
+// ── Engine ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+export class PredictionEngine {
+    db;
+    config;
+    tracker;
+    thoughtStream = null;
+    journal = null;
+    timer = null;
+    calibrationOffset = 0;
+    log = getLogger();
+    constructor(db, config) {
+        this.db = db;
+        this.config = {
+            brainName: config.brainName,
+            defaultHorizonMs: config.defaultHorizonMs ?? 3_600_000,
+            expirationMs: config.expirationMs ?? 86_400_000,
+            ewmaAlpha: config.ewmaAlpha ?? 0.3,
+            trendBeta: config.trendBeta ?? 0.1,
+            minDataPoints: config.minDataPoints ?? 5,
+            minConfidence: config.minConfidence ?? 0.3,
+            maxPredictionsPerCycle: config.maxPredictionsPerCycle ?? 5,
+            resolveIntervalMs: config.resolveIntervalMs ?? 60_000,
+        };
+        runPredictionMigration(db);
+        this.tracker = new PredictionTracker(db);
+        // Load calibration offset from DB
+        this.calibrationOffset = this.tracker.getCalibrationOffset();
+    }
+    /** Set the ThoughtStream for consciousness integration. */
+    setThoughtStream(stream) {
+        this.thoughtStream = stream;
+    }
+    /** Set the Research Journal for logging notable predictions. */
+    setJournal(journal) {
+        this.journal = journal;
+    }
+    /** Start periodic resolution timer. */
+    start() {
+        if (this.timer)
+            return;
+        this.timer = setInterval(() => {
+            try {
+                this.cycle();
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                this.log.error(`[prediction] Cycle error: ${err.message}`);
+            }
+        }, this.config.resolveIntervalMs);
+        this.log.info(`[prediction] Engine started (resolve interval: ${this.config.resolveIntervalMs}ms)`);
+    }
+    /** Stop the resolution timer. */
+    stop() {
+        if (this.timer) {
+            clearInterval(this.timer);
+            this.timer = null;
+        }
+    }
+    /** Record a metric data point. Called by domain event handlers. */
+    recordMetric(metric, value, domain = 'metric') {
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO prediction_metrics (metric, value, domain, timestamp) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?)
+    `).run(metric, value, domain, Date.now());
+    }
+    /**
+     * Generate a prediction for a specific metric.
+     * Returns null if insufficient data or confidence too low.
+     */
+    predict(input) {
+        const horizonMs = input.horizon_ms ?? this.config.defaultHorizonMs;
+        const history = this.getMetricHistory(input.metric, 100);
+        if (history.length < 2)
+            return null;
+        const data = history.map(h => h.value);
+        const forecast = this.forecast(data, horizonMs);
+        // Apply calibration
+        const calibratedConfidence = this.applyCalibration(forecast.confidence);
+        if (calibratedConfidence < this.config.minConfidence)
+            return null;
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const prediction = {
+            prediction_id: randomUUID(),
+            domain: input.domain,
+            metric: input.metric,
+            predicted_value: forecast.value,
+            predicted_direction: forecast.direction,
+            confidence: calibratedConfidence,
+            horizon_ms: horizonMs,
+            reasoning: input.reasoning ?? `${forecast.method} forecast (${forecast.dataPoints} points, trend: ${forecast.trend.toFixed(4)})`,
+            method: forecast.method,
+            status: 'pending',
+            created_at: now,
+            expires_at: now + this.config.expirationMs,
+            evidence: {
+                ...input.evidence,
+                dataPoints: forecast.dataPoints,
+                trend: forecast.trend,
+                rawConfidence: forecast.confidence,
+                calibrationOffset: this.calibrationOffset,
+            },
+        };
+        this.tracker.store(prediction);
+        // Update state
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      UPDATE prediction_state SET total_predictions = total_predictions + 1, updated_at = datetime('now') WHERE id = 1
+    `).run();
+        // Emit thought
+        this.thoughtStream?.emit('prediction', 'predicting', `Predicted ${input.metric}: ${forecast.direction} to ${forecast.value.toFixed(2)} (${(calibratedConfidence * 100).toFixed(0)}% confidence)`, calibratedConfidence > 0.7 ? 'notable' : 'routine');
+        // Journal high-confidence predictions
+        if (calibratedConfidence > 0.6 && this.journal) {
+            try {
+                this.journal.recordDiscovery(`Prediction: ${input.metric} → ${forecast.direction}`, `Forecasted ${input.metric} will go ${forecast.direction} to ${forecast.value.toFixed(2)} within ${(horizonMs / 60_000).toFixed(0)}min. Method: ${forecast.method}, confidence: ${(calibratedConfidence * 100).toFixed(0)}%.`, { prediction_id: prediction.prediction_id, ...prediction.evidence }, calibratedConfidence > 0.8 ? 'notable' : 'routine');
+            }
+            catch { /* best effort */ }
+        }
+        return prediction;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Auto-predict for all tracked metrics that have enough data.
+     * Skips metrics with pending predictions. Respects maxPredictionsPerCycle.
+     */
+    autoPredictAll() {
+        const trackedMetrics = this.getTrackedMetrics();
+        const pendingMetrics = this.tracker.getMetricsWithPending();
+        const predictions = [];
+        for (const { metric, domain } of trackedMetrics) {
+            if (predictions.length >= this.config.maxPredictionsPerCycle)
+                break;
+            if (pendingMetrics.has(metric))
+                continue;
+            const prediction = this.predict({ domain, metric });
+            if (prediction)
+                predictions.push(prediction);
+        }
+        return predictions;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Resolve expired/due predictions against current metric values.
+     * Returns count of resolved predictions.
+     */
+    resolveExpired() {
+        let resolved = 0;
+        // 1. Mark truly expired (past expiration, no data)
+        const expired = this.tracker.getPendingExpired();
+        for (const pred of expired) {
+            this.tracker.markExpired(pred.prediction_id);
+            resolved++;
+        }
+        // 2. Resolve predictions past their horizon
+        const resolvable = this.tracker.getPendingResolvable();
+        for (const pred of resolvable) {
+            // Get the latest metric value after the prediction was made
+            const row = this.db.prepare(`
+        SELECT AVG(value) as avg_value FROM prediction_metrics
+        WHERE metric = ? AND timestamp > ?
+        ORDER BY timestamp DESC LIMIT 10
+      `).get(pred.metric, pred.created_at);
+            if (row?.avg_value != null) {
+                this.tracker.resolve(pred.prediction_id, row.avg_value);
+                resolved++;
+            }
+        }
+        // 3. Recalibrate if we resolved anything
+        if (resolved > 0) {
+            this.recalibrate();
+        }
+        return resolved;
+    }
+    /** List predictions with optional filters. */
+    list(domain, status, limit) {
+        return this.tracker.list(domain, status, limit);
+    }
+    /** Get accuracy statistics. */
+    getAccuracy(domain) {
+        return this.tracker.getAccuracy(domain);
+    }
+    /** Get full prediction summary. */
+    getSummary() {
+        const state = this.db.prepare('SELECT * FROM prediction_state WHERE id = 1').get();
+        const accuracy = this.tracker.getAccuracy();
+        const recent = this.tracker.list(undefined, undefined, 10);
+        const totalPredictions = state?.total_predictions ?? 0;
+        const pending = this.tracker.list(undefined, 'pending', 1000).length;
+        const resolved = totalPredictions - pending;
+        // Overall accuracy
+        const totalCorrect = accuracy.reduce((sum, a) => sum + a.correct, 0);
+        const totalResolved = accuracy.reduce((sum, a) => sum + a.total - a.expired, 0);
+        return {
+            total_predictions: totalPredictions,
+            pending,
+            resolved,
+            accuracy_rate: totalResolved > 0 ? totalCorrect / totalResolved : 0,
+            by_domain: accuracy,
+            calibration_offset: this.calibrationOffset,
+            recent,
+        };
+    }
+    /** Run a forecast on raw data. Uses Holt-Winters (≥ minDataPoints) or EWMA. */
+    forecast(data, horizonMs) {
+        // steps = horizon / avg interval between data points (default 1)
+        const steps = 1;
+        if (data.length >= this.config.minDataPoints) {
+            return holtWintersForecast(data, steps, this.config.ewmaAlpha, this.config.trendBeta);
+        }
+        return ewmaForecast(data, this.config.ewmaAlpha);
+    }
+    /** Get metric history as time series. */
+    getMetricHistory(metric, limit = 100) {
+        return this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT value, timestamp FROM prediction_metrics
+      WHERE metric = ?
+      ORDER BY timestamp ASC
+      LIMIT ?
+    `).all(metric, limit);
+    }
+    // ── Private ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+    /** Periodic cycle: resolve + auto-predict. */
+    cycle() {
+        const resolved = this.resolveExpired();
+        if (resolved > 0) {
+            this.log.debug(`[prediction] Resolved ${resolved} predictions`);
+        }
+    }
+    /** Recalibrate confidence offset based on historical accuracy. */
+    recalibrate() {
+        this.calibrationOffset = this.tracker.getCalibrationOffset();
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      UPDATE prediction_state SET calibration_offset = ?, updated_at = datetime('now') WHERE id = 1
+    `).run(this.calibrationOffset);
+    }
+    /** Apply calibration to raw confidence. */
+    applyCalibration(rawConfidence) {
+        const buckets = this.tracker.getCalibrationBuckets();
+        return calibrateConfidence(rawConfidence, buckets);
+    }
+    /** Get all unique tracked metrics with their domains. */
+    getTrackedMetrics() {
+        return this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT DISTINCT metric, domain FROM prediction_metrics
+      GROUP BY metric
+      HAVING COUNT(*) >= 2
+      ORDER BY COUNT(*) DESC
+    `).all();
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=prediction-engine.js.map

package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/prediction/tracker.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+import type Database from 'better-sqlite3';
+import type { Prediction, PredictionDomain, PredictionStatus, PredictionAccuracy, CalibrationBucket } from './types.js';
+export declare class PredictionTracker {
+    private db;
+    constructor(db: Database.Database);
+    /** Store a new prediction in the DB. */
+    store(prediction: Prediction): string;
+    /** Resolve a prediction against actual value. Returns the determined status. */
+    resolve(predictionId: string, actualValue: number): PredictionStatus;
+    /** List predictions with optional filters. */
+    list(domain?: PredictionDomain, status?: PredictionStatus, limit?: number): Prediction[];
+    /** Get accuracy statistics, optionally by domain. */
+    getAccuracy(domain?: PredictionDomain): PredictionAccuracy[];
+    /** Get calibration offset — average (confidence - actual_accuracy) across buckets. */
+    getCalibrationOffset(): number;
+    /** Get calibration buckets for confidence adjustment. */
+    getCalibrationBuckets(): CalibrationBucket[];
+    /** Get pending predictions that have expired (past expires_at). */
+    getPendingExpired(): Prediction[];
+    /** Get pending predictions that are within their horizon (ready for resolution check). */
+    getPendingResolvable(): Prediction[];
+    /** Mark a prediction as expired. */
+    markExpired(predictionId: string): void;
+    /** Get metrics with pending predictions (to skip in autoPredictAll). */
+    getMetricsWithPending(): Set<string>;
+    private rowToPrediction;
+}