@timmeck/brain-core 2.5.0 → 2.7.0

package/dist/research/anomaly-detective.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/research/counterfactual-engine.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+import type Database from 'better-sqlite3';
+import type { CausalGraph } from '../causal/engine.js';
+export interface CounterfactualQuery {
+    intervention: {
+        variable: string;
+        actual_value: unknown;
+        counterfactual_value: unknown;
+    };
+    outcome_variable: string;
+    time_range?: {
+        start: number;
+        end: number;
+    };
+}
+export interface CounterfactualResult {
+    id?: number;
+    query: CounterfactualQuery;
+    actual_outcome: number;
+    counterfactual_outcome: number;
+    difference: number;
+    confidence_interval: [number, number];
+    confidence_level: number;
+    causal_path: string[];
+    narrative: string;
+    timestamp: number;
+}
+export interface InterventionImpact {
+    variable: string;
+    proposed_value: unknown;
+    current_value: unknown;
+    affected_outcomes: Array<{
+        outcome: string;
+        expected_change: number;
+        confidence: number;
+        causal_distance: number;
+    }>;
+    total_impact_score: number;
+    recommendation: string;
+}
+export interface CounterfactualConfig {
+    /** Default confidence level for intervals. Default: 0.8 */
+    defaultConfidence?: number;
+    /** Maximum causal path depth. Default: 5 */
+    maxPathDepth?: number;
+}
+export declare function runCounterfactualMigration(db: Database.Database): void;
+export declare class CounterfactualEngine {
+    private db;
+    private causalGraph;
+    private config;
+    private log;
+    constructor(db: Database.Database, causalGraph: CausalGraph | null, config?: CounterfactualConfig);
+    /** Answer a "what if" question using causal graph and historical data. */
+    whatIf(query: CounterfactualQuery): CounterfactualResult;
+    /** Get history of past counterfactual queries. */
+    getHistory(limit?: number): CounterfactualResult[];
+    /** Estimate the impact of a proposed intervention before making it. */
+    estimateIntervention(variable: string, proposedValue: unknown, currentValue: unknown): InterventionImpact;
+    private findCausalPath;
+    private getActualOutcome;
+    private estimateCounterfactual;
+    private generateNarrative;
+}

package/dist/research/counterfactual-engine.js

@@ -0,0 +1,263 @@
+import { getLogger } from '../utils/logger.js';
+// ── Migration ───────────────────────────────────────────
+export function runCounterfactualMigration(db) {
+    db.exec(`
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS counterfactual_queries (
+      id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
+      query TEXT NOT NULL,
+      actual_outcome REAL NOT NULL,
+      counterfactual_outcome REAL NOT NULL,
+      difference REAL NOT NULL,
+      confidence_interval TEXT NOT NULL,
+      confidence_level REAL NOT NULL,
+      causal_path TEXT NOT NULL,
+      narrative TEXT NOT NULL,
+      timestamp INTEGER NOT NULL,
+      created_at TEXT DEFAULT (datetime('now'))
+    );
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_cf_timestamp ON counterfactual_queries(timestamp);
+  `);
+}
+// ── Engine ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+export class CounterfactualEngine {
+    db;
+    causalGraph;
+    config;
+    log = getLogger();
+    constructor(db, causalGraph, config) {
+        this.db = db;
+        this.causalGraph = causalGraph;
+        this.config = {
+            defaultConfidence: config?.defaultConfidence ?? 0.8,
+            maxPathDepth: config?.maxPathDepth ?? 5,
+        };
+        runCounterfactualMigration(db);
+    }
+    /** Answer a "what if" question using causal graph and historical data. */
+    whatIf(query) {
+        const timestamp = Date.now();
+        // 1. Find causal path from intervention variable to outcome
+        const causalPath = this.findCausalPath(query.intervention.variable, query.outcome_variable);
+        // 2. Get actual outcome from historical data
+        const actualOutcome = this.getActualOutcome(query.outcome_variable, query.time_range);
+        // 3. Estimate counterfactual outcome using causal model
+        const { estimate, confidence, interval } = this.estimateCounterfactual(query, causalPath, actualOutcome);
+        // 4. Generate narrative
+        const narrative = this.generateNarrative(query, actualOutcome, estimate, causalPath);
+        const result = {
+            query,
+            actual_outcome: actualOutcome,
+            counterfactual_outcome: estimate,
+            difference: estimate - actualOutcome,
+            confidence_interval: interval,
+            confidence_level: confidence,
+            causal_path: causalPath,
+            narrative,
+            timestamp,
+        };
+        // Persist
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO counterfactual_queries
+      (query, actual_outcome, counterfactual_outcome, difference, confidence_interval,
+       confidence_level, causal_path, narrative, timestamp)
+      VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
+    `).run(JSON.stringify(query), result.actual_outcome, result.counterfactual_outcome, result.difference, JSON.stringify(result.confidence_interval), result.confidence_level, JSON.stringify(result.causal_path), result.narrative, timestamp);
+        return result;
+    }
+    /** Get history of past counterfactual queries. */
+    getHistory(limit = 10) {
+        return this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT * FROM counterfactual_queries ORDER BY timestamp DESC LIMIT ?
+    `).all(limit).map(row => ({
+            id: row.id,
+            query: JSON.parse(row.query),
+            actual_outcome: row.actual_outcome,
+            counterfactual_outcome: row.counterfactual_outcome,
+            difference: row.difference,
+            confidence_interval: JSON.parse(row.confidence_interval),
+            confidence_level: row.confidence_level,
+            causal_path: JSON.parse(row.causal_path),
+            narrative: row.narrative,
+            timestamp: row.timestamp,
+        }));
+    }
+    /** Estimate the impact of a proposed intervention before making it. */
+    estimateIntervention(variable, proposedValue, currentValue) {
+        if (!this.causalGraph) {
+            return {
+                variable,
+                proposed_value: proposedValue,
+                current_value: currentValue,
+                affected_outcomes: [],
+                total_impact_score: 0,
+                recommendation: 'Cannot estimate — causal graph not available.',
+            };
+        }
+        // Find all downstream effects
+        const effects = this.causalGraph.getEffects(variable);
+        const affectedOutcomes = [];
+        for (const edge of effects) {
+            // Estimate change propagation
+            const valueDiff = typeof proposedValue === 'number' && typeof currentValue === 'number'
+                ? (proposedValue - currentValue) / Math.max(Math.abs(currentValue), 1e-10)
+                : 0;
+            const expectedChange = valueDiff * edge.strength * edge.direction;
+            affectedOutcomes.push({
+                outcome: edge.effect,
+                expected_change: expectedChange,
+                confidence: edge.confidence,
+                causal_distance: 1,
+            });
+            // Check second-order effects
+            const secondOrder = this.causalGraph.getEffects(edge.effect);
+            for (const e2 of secondOrder) {
+                if (e2.effect === variable)
+                    continue; // Skip cycles
+                affectedOutcomes.push({
+                    outcome: e2.effect,
+                    expected_change: expectedChange * e2.strength * e2.direction,
+                    confidence: edge.confidence * e2.confidence,
+                    causal_distance: 2,
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        const totalImpact = affectedOutcomes.reduce((sum, o) => sum + Math.abs(o.expected_change) * o.confidence, 0);
+        let recommendation;
+        if (affectedOutcomes.length === 0) {
+            recommendation = 'No known causal effects. Safe to change but impact unknown.';
+        }
+        else if (affectedOutcomes.every(o => o.expected_change >= 0)) {
+            recommendation = 'All known effects are positive. Recommended to proceed.';
+        }
+        else if (affectedOutcomes.every(o => o.expected_change <= 0)) {
+            recommendation = 'All known effects are negative. Not recommended.';
+        }
+        else {
+            const posImpact = affectedOutcomes.filter(o => o.expected_change > 0).reduce((s, o) => s + o.expected_change * o.confidence, 0);
+            const negImpact = affectedOutcomes.filter(o => o.expected_change < 0).reduce((s, o) => s + Math.abs(o.expected_change) * o.confidence, 0);
+            recommendation = posImpact > negImpact
+                ? `Mixed effects but net positive (${(posImpact - negImpact).toFixed(2)}). Consider proceeding with monitoring.`
+                : `Mixed effects with net negative impact (${(negImpact - posImpact).toFixed(2)}). Caution advised.`;
+        }
+        return {
+            variable,
+            proposed_value: proposedValue,
+            current_value: currentValue,
+            affected_outcomes: affectedOutcomes.sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.expected_change) - Math.abs(a.expected_change)),
+            total_impact_score: totalImpact,
+            recommendation,
+        };
+    }
+    findCausalPath(from, to) {
+        if (!this.causalGraph)
+            return [from, to];
+        // BFS through causal graph
+        const visited = new Set();
+        const queue = [{ node: from, path: [from] }];
+        visited.add(from);
+        while (queue.length > 0) {
+            const current = queue.shift();
+            if (current.node === to)
+                return current.path;
+            if (current.path.length >= this.config.maxPathDepth)
+                continue;
+            const effects = this.causalGraph.getEffects(current.node);
+            for (const edge of effects) {
+                if (!visited.has(edge.effect)) {
+                    visited.add(edge.effect);
+                    queue.push({ node: edge.effect, path: [...current.path, edge.effect] });
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return [from, to]; // No path found, assume direct
+    }
+    getActualOutcome(variable, timeRange) {
+        // Try to get from causal events
+        let sql = `
+      SELECT AVG(CAST(json_extract(data, '$.value') AS REAL)) as avg_val,
+             COUNT(*) as count
+      FROM causal_events WHERE type = ?
+    `;
+        const params = [variable];
+        if (timeRange) {
+            sql += ` AND timestamp BETWEEN ? AND ?`;
+            params.push(timeRange.start, timeRange.end);
+        }
+        try {
+            const row = this.db.prepare(sql).get(...params);
+            if (row.avg_val !== null)
+                return row.avg_val;
+        }
+        catch {
+            // Table might not exist
+        }
+        // Fallback: count events as a proxy
+        try {
+            let countSql = `SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM causal_events WHERE type = ?`;
+            const countParams = [variable];
+            if (timeRange) {
+                countSql += ` AND timestamp BETWEEN ? AND ?`;
+                countParams.push(timeRange.start, timeRange.end);
+            }
+            const count = this.db.prepare(countSql).get(...countParams);
+            return count.c;
+        }
+        catch {
+            return 0;
+        }
+    }
+    estimateCounterfactual(query, causalPath, actualOutcome) {
+        if (!this.causalGraph || causalPath.length < 2) {
+            // No causal model — assume linear relationship
+            const ratio = typeof query.intervention.counterfactual_value === 'number' &&
+                typeof query.intervention.actual_value === 'number' &&
+                query.intervention.actual_value !== 0
+                ? query.intervention.counterfactual_value / query.intervention.actual_value
+                : 1;
+            const estimate = actualOutcome * ratio;
+            const spread = Math.abs(estimate - actualOutcome) * 0.5;
+            return {
+                estimate,
+                confidence: 0.3,
+                interval: [estimate - spread, estimate + spread],
+            };
+        }
+        // Use causal path to estimate propagation
+        let cumulativeEffect = 1;
+        let cumulativeConfidence = 1;
+        for (let i = 0; i < causalPath.length - 1; i++) {
+            const edges = this.causalGraph.getEffects(causalPath[i])
+                .filter(e => e.effect === causalPath[i + 1]);
+            if (edges.length > 0) {
+                const edge = edges[0];
+                cumulativeEffect *= edge.strength * edge.direction;
+                cumulativeConfidence *= edge.confidence;
+            }
+            else {
+                cumulativeEffect *= 0.5; // Unknown link — assume weak
+                cumulativeConfidence *= 0.3;
+            }
+        }
+        // Compute value difference
+        const valueDiff = typeof query.intervention.counterfactual_value === 'number' &&
+            typeof query.intervention.actual_value === 'number'
+            ? query.intervention.counterfactual_value - query.intervention.actual_value
+            : 0;
+        const estimate = actualOutcome + valueDiff * cumulativeEffect;
+        const spread = Math.abs(estimate - actualOutcome) * (1 - cumulativeConfidence);
+        return {
+            estimate,
+            confidence: cumulativeConfidence,
+            interval: [estimate - spread, estimate + spread],
+        };
+    }
+    generateNarrative(query, actual, counterfactual, path) {
+        const diff = counterfactual - actual;
+        const pctDiff = actual !== 0 ? ((diff / actual) * 100).toFixed(1) : 'N/A';
+        const direction = diff > 0 ? 'higher' : diff < 0 ? 'lower' : 'the same';
+        const pathStr = path.length > 2 ? ` via ${path.slice(1, -1).join(' → ')}` : '';
+        return `If ${query.intervention.variable} had been ${query.intervention.counterfactual_value} instead of ${query.intervention.actual_value}, ` +
+            `${query.outcome_variable} would have been ${direction} at ${counterfactual.toFixed(2)} (actual: ${actual.toFixed(2)}, ${pctDiff}% change)${pathStr}.`;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=counterfactual-engine.js.map

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package/dist/research/cross-domain-engine.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+import type Database from 'better-sqlite3';
+export interface CrossDomainCorrelation {
+    id?: number;
+    timestamp: number;
+    source_brain: string;
+    source_event: string;
+    target_brain: string;
+    target_event: string;
+    correlation: number;
+    lag_seconds: number;
+    p_value: number;
+    effect_size: number;
+    direction: 'positive' | 'negative';
+    narrative: string;
+    sample_size: number;
+    confirmed: boolean;
+}
+export interface CrossDomainEvent {
+    brain: string;
+    event_type: string;
+    timestamp: number;
+    data?: Record<string, unknown>;
+}
+export interface CrossDomainConfig {
+    /** Time window for correlation analysis (ms). Default: 7_200_000 (2h) */
+    windowMs?: number;
+    /** Minimum correlation strength. Default: 0.3 */
+    minCorrelation?: number;
+    /** Significance level. Default: 0.05 */
+    alpha?: number;
+    /** Maximum events to keep. Default: 10000 */
+    maxEvents?: number;
+}
+export declare function runCrossDomainMigration(db: Database.Database): void;
+export declare class CrossDomainEngine {
+    private db;
+    private config;
+    private log;
+    constructor(db: Database.Database, config?: CrossDomainConfig);
+    /** Record an event from a brain. */
+    recordEvent(brain: string, eventType: string, data?: Record<string, unknown>): void;
+    /** Run cross-domain correlation analysis. */
+    analyze(): CrossDomainCorrelation[];
+    /** Get all found correlations. */
+    getCorrelations(limit?: number): CrossDomainCorrelation[];
+    /** Generate a narrative summary of the most important cross-domain findings. */
+    getNarrative(): string;
+    private computeCorrelation;
+    private generateNarrative;
+    private persistCorrelation;
+    private rowToCorrelation;
+}