@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.220.1 → 0.221.0

package/dist/paired-arms-Ct4LTKc1.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"paired-arms-Ct4LTKc1.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/math/normal.ts","../src/statistics/rank-tests.ts","../src/paired-arms.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Standard normal cumulative distribution using Abramowitz and Stegun 7.1.26.\n *\n * The approximation is evaluated as erf(x / sqrt(2)). Computing the negative\n * tail from the complementary term avoids cancellation when x is far below 0.\n * The maximum absolute CDF error is approximately 7.5e-8.\n */\nexport function normalCdf(x: number): number {\n  if (x === 0) return 0.5\n\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n\n  const scaled = Math.abs(x) / Math.SQRT2\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * scaled)\n  const complement = ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-scaled * scaled)\n\n  return x < 0 ? complement / 2 : 1 - complement / 2\n}\n","import { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { normalCdf } from '../math/normal'\nimport { lnGamma } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport {\n  assertFiniteSample,\n  binomialSignTwoSided,\n  makeRng,\n  symmetricTwoSampleSeed,\n} from './internal'\n\n// ── Rank tests: exact by default ─────────────────────────────────────\n//\n// At 3–10 repetitions per arm the binding constraint on a rank test is\n// combinatorial, not numerical. Three versus three admits only 20 splits, so\n// the attainable two-sided p-grid starts at 0.1000 and α = 0.05 is out of\n// reach at that design; a normal approximation reports 0.0495, a p-value that\n// describes no attainable outcome. No better approximation fixes this — adding\n// the tie correction moves `[0,0,0]` versus `[1,1,1]` from 0.0495 to 0.0469,\n// further from its exact 0.1000, not closer.\n//\n// So both null distributions are enumerated exactly inside bounded state and\n// work budgets, by convolution over the observed midranks (identical to\n// enumerating every split / sign pattern, and cheaper), which conditions on the\n// realised tie pattern for free. Above those budgets the default is a seeded\n// Monte Carlo permutation. The asymptotic path is never chosen automatically,\n// and asking for it inside the exact-feasible range throws.\n//\n// Every result carries `method` and `pFloor` so a downstream gate can SEE the\n// discreteness rather than infer it: a gate handed data whose `pFloor` exceeds\n// its alpha is underpowered by construction, which is a true statement about\n// the experiment, not a false one about the effect.\n\n/** How a rank test's p-value was actually computed. */\nexport type RankTestMethod = 'exact' | 'permutation' | 'asymptotic'\n\n/**\n * What the caller asks for. `'auto'` selects `'exact'` inside the enumeration\n * threshold and `'permutation'` above it, and never selects `'asymptotic'`.\n */\nexport type RankTestMethodRequest = 'auto' | 'exact' | 'asymptotic'\n\nexport interface RankTestOptions {\n  /** Default `'auto'`. `'asymptotic'` inside the exact-feasible range throws. */\n  method?: RankTestMethodRequest\n  /** Resamples on the Monte Carlo permutation path. Default 100000. */\n  permutations?: number\n  /** Seed for the permutation path. Omitted ⇒ derived from the data itself, so\n   *  the result is reproducible either way. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/** Maximum dynamic-programming cells used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nconst MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES = 8_192\n/** Maximum inner-loop transitions used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nconst MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK = 250_000\n/** Non-zero differences up to which the signed-rank null is enumerated exactly. */\nconst WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N = 20\n/** Resamples used when a rank test falls back to Monte Carlo permutation. */\nconst DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS = 100_000\n\nexport interface MannWhitneyResult {\n  /** `min(U_a, U_b)` — the conventional reported statistic. */\n  u: number\n  /** U for sample `a`. Carries the direction of the effect, which `u` discards. */\n  uA: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. `p` can never be below it. */\n  pFloor: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U — two independent samples, no distributional assumption.\n *\n * Exact conditional (permutation) p by default when the dynamic program fits\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES} cells and\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK} transitions, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above those limits. This keeps imbalanced designs such as 1+24\n * exact without admitting expensive balanced designs merely because they have\n * the same total size. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available. Empty input yields `p = 1,\n * pFloor = 1` — no design, no attainable evidence.\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(\n  a: number[],\n  b: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): MannWhitneyResult {\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'a', a)\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'b', b)\n\n  const n1 = a.length\n  const n2 = b.length\n  if (n1 === 0 || n2 === 0) return { u: 0, uA: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1 }\n\n  const total = n1 + n2\n  const combined = [\n    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: true })),\n    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: false })),\n  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(combined.map((entry) => entry.v))\n  let rankSumA = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < total; k++) {\n    if (combined[k]!.fromA) rankSumA += midranks[k]!\n  }\n\n  const uA = rankSumA - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n  const u = Math.min(uA, n1 * n2 - uA)\n  // Midranks are integers or halves, so doubling makes the null convolution\n  // integral. U is centred on n₁n₂/2, hence a doubled centre of n₁n₂.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * uA - n1 * n2)\n  const selectedN = Math.min(n1, n2)\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const exactCost = exactTwoSampleCost(doubled, selectedN)\n\n  const designFloor = exactTwoSampleFloor(doubled, selectedN)\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'mannWhitneyU',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n1=${n1}, n2=${n2}`,\n    exactCost.states <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES &&\n      exactCost.work <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK,\n    designFloor,\n    `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES.toLocaleString('en-US')} states and ` +\n      `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK.toLocaleString('en-US')} transitions`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactTwoSampleP(doubled, selectedN, otherN, doubledDeviation)\n    return { u, uA, p, method, pFloor }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    return {\n      u,\n      uA,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, twoSampleSigma(n1, n2, total, tieTerm)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('mannWhitneyU', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = opts.seed === undefined ? makeRng(symmetricTwoSampleSeed(a, b)) : makeRng(opts.seed)\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  const pool = [...doubled]\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledRankSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < selectedN; k++) {\n      const pick = k + Math.floor(rng() * (total - k))\n      const swapped = pool[pick]!\n      pool[pick] = pool[k]!\n      pool[k] = swapped\n      doubledRankSum += swapped\n    }\n    if (\n      Math.abs(doubledRankSum - selectedN * (selectedN + 1) - selectedN * otherN) >=\n      doubledDeviation\n    ) {\n      atLeastAsExtreme++\n    }\n  }\n  const pFloor = Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor)\n  return {\n    u,\n    uA,\n    p: Math.max((1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1), pFloor),\n    method,\n    pFloor,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  /** W⁺, the rank sum of the positive differences. (scipy reports\n   *  `min(W⁺, W⁻)`; compare statistics only after converting.) */\n  w: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. */\n  pFloor: number\n  /** Non-zero differences — zero differences are dropped and carry no rank. */\n  nNonZero: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank — paired, no distributional assumption on the deltas.\n *\n * Exact conditional (sign-flip) p by default at `n ≤\n * {@link WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N}` non-zero differences, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above it. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available.\n *\n * `n` is the count of NON-ZERO differences: exact ties are dropped before\n * ranking, so a run of tied pairs shrinks the design and raises `pFloor`.\n * All-tied input yields `p = 1, pFloor = 1` — no attainable evidence, which\n * `pFloor` states rather than leaving `p = 1` to be read as a measured null.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'before', before)\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'after', after)\n\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n  const n = diffs.length\n  if (n === 0) return { w: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1, nNonZero: 0 }\n\n  // When every non-zero difference has the same magnitude, the signed-rank\n  // null reduces exactly to a binomial sign distribution. This is the common\n  // pass/fail shape ({-1, 0, +1}); recognizing it avoids a 100k-draw\n  // permutation for every repeated gate evaluation while preserving the exact\n  // p-value and attainable floor. Explicit method requests still retain their\n  // documented behavior.\n  const abs = Math.abs(diffs[0]!)\n  const allEqualAbs = diffs.every((d) => Math.abs(d) === abs)\n  if ((opts.method === undefined || opts.method === 'auto') && allEqualAbs) {\n    const positive = diffs.filter((d) => d > 0).length\n    const negative = n - positive\n    return {\n      w: (positive * (n + 1)) / 2,\n      p: binomialSignTwoSided(positive, negative),\n      method: 'exact',\n      pFloor: Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n)),\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const order = diffs.map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), i })).sort((x, y) => x.abs - y.abs)\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(order.map((entry) => entry.abs))\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) ranks[order[k]!.i] = midranks[k]!\n\n  let wPlus = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n  // Midranks are integers or halves; doubling makes the convolution integral.\n  // Σ midranks = n(n+1)/2 whatever the tie pattern, so E[W⁺] = n(n+1)/4 and\n  // the doubled centre is n(n+1)/2.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * wPlus - (n * (n + 1)) / 2)\n\n  const designFloor = Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n))\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'wilcoxonSignedRank',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n=${n} non-zero differences`,\n    n <= WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N,\n    designFloor,\n    `${WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N} non-zero differences`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactSignedRankP(doubled, doubledDeviation)\n    return { w: wPlus, p, method, pFloor, nNonZero: n }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24 - tieTerm / 48\n    return {\n      w: wPlus,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, Math.sqrt(variance)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('wilcoxonSignedRank', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed, before, after)\n  const doubledCentre = (n * (n + 1)) / 2\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledWPlus = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (rng() < 0.5) doubledWPlus += doubled[k]!\n    if (Math.abs(doubledWPlus - doubledCentre) >= doubledDeviation) atLeastAsExtreme++\n  }\n  return {\n    w: wPlus,\n    p: (1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1),\n    method,\n    pFloor: Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor),\n    nNonZero: n,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Average ranks over an ASCENDING-sorted array, plus `Σ(t³ − t)` over tie\n * groups of size `t` — the correction term both asymptotic rank-test variances\n * need.\n */\nfunction midranksWithTieTerm(sorted: readonly number[]): { midranks: number[]; tieTerm: number } {\n  const midranks = new Array<number>(sorted.length)\n  let tieTerm = 0\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < sorted.length) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < sorted.length && sorted[j] === sorted[i]) j++\n    const average = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) midranks[k] = average\n    const groupSize = j - i\n    if (groupSize > 1) tieTerm += groupSize ** 3 - groupSize\n    i = j\n  }\n  return { midranks, tieTerm }\n}\n\nfunction selectRankTestMethod(\n  fn: string,\n  request: RankTestMethodRequest,\n  design: string,\n  exactFeasible: boolean,\n  designFloor: number,\n  threshold: string,\n): RankTestMethod {\n  if (request === 'auto') return exactFeasible ? 'exact' : 'permutation'\n  if (request === 'exact') {\n    if (exactFeasible) return 'exact'\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'exact' is out of range at ${design} — enumeration is bounded by ` +\n        `${threshold}. Use 'auto' for the seeded Monte Carlo permutation, which converges ` +\n        'to the same answer.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (exactFeasible) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'asymptotic' is refused at ${design} — the exact p-grid at this design ` +\n        `starts at ${formatProbability(designFloor)}, so an asymptotic p below it describes no ` +\n        `attainable outcome. Use method 'exact' (the default) or add repetitions past ` +\n        `${threshold}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 'asymptotic'\n}\n\nfunction resolvePermutations(fn: string, permutations: number | undefined): number {\n  if (permutations === undefined) return DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS\n  if (!Number.isInteger(permutations) || permutations < 1) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`${fn}: permutations must be a positive integer, got ${permutations}`)\n  }\n  return permutations\n}\n\n/** Two-sided normal-approximation tail with the continuity correction. */\nfunction asymptoticTwoSidedP(deviation: number, sigma: number): number {\n  if (!(sigma > 0)) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.max(0, deviation - 0.5) / sigma)))\n}\n\n/** SD of U under the permutation null, corrected for the realised ties. The\n *  tie term reduces (N+1) and reaches it exactly when every value is tied, so\n *  the variance floors at 0 rather than going negative. */\nfunction twoSampleSigma(n1: number, n2: number, total: number, tieTerm: number): number {\n  if (total < 2) return 0\n  const variance = ((n1 * n2) / 12) * (total + 1 - tieTerm / (total * (total - 1)))\n  return Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, variance))\n}\n\nfunction logChoose(n: number, k: number): number {\n  return lnGamma(n + 1) - lnGamma(k + 1) - lnGamma(n - k + 1)\n}\n\nfunction formatProbability(value: number): string {\n  return value >= 1e-4 || value === 0 ? value.toFixed(4) : value.toExponential(3)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact DP allocation and loop count for this observed rank vector.\n *\n * The smaller arm is sufficient because selecting its complement produces the\n * same two-sided U deviation while using fewer rows in the state table.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleCost(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n): { states: number; work: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  let work = 0\n  for (let placed = 0; placed < doubledRanks.length; placed++) {\n    work += Math.min(selectedN, placed + 1) * (maxSum - doubledRanks[placed]! + 1)\n  }\n  return {\n    states: (selectedN + 1) * (maxSum + 1),\n    work,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Smallest attainable two-sided p under the observed ties.\n *\n * Only subsets with the minimum or maximum rank sum can attain the largest\n * deviation. Their multiplicity is the number of ways to choose within the\n * tie group at each boundary, so this calculation is exact without allocating\n * the full null distribution.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleFloor(doubledRanks: readonly number[], selectedN: number): number {\n  const total = doubledRanks.length\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const minimumSum = doubledRanks.slice(0, selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const maximumSum = doubledRanks.slice(total - selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  if (minimumSum === maximumSum) return 1\n\n  const centre = selectedN * (selectedN + 1) + selectedN * otherN\n  const minimumDeviation = Math.abs(minimumSum - centre)\n  const maximumDeviation = Math.abs(maximumSum - centre)\n  const totalLogWays = logChoose(total, selectedN)\n  const minimumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'minimum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n  const maximumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'maximum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n\n  if (minimumDeviation > maximumDeviation) return minimumMass\n  if (maximumDeviation > minimumDeviation) return maximumMass\n  return Math.min(1, minimumMass + maximumMass)\n}\n\nfunction logExtremeSubsetWays(\n  sortedRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n  side: 'minimum' | 'maximum',\n): number {\n  const boundaryIndex = side === 'minimum' ? selectedN - 1 : sortedRanks.length - selectedN\n  const boundary = sortedRanks[boundaryIndex]!\n  let first = boundaryIndex\n  let afterLast = boundaryIndex + 1\n  while (first > 0 && sortedRanks[first - 1] === boundary) first--\n  while (afterLast < sortedRanks.length && sortedRanks[afterLast] === boundary) afterLast++\n\n  const tieSize = afterLast - first\n  const fixed = side === 'minimum' ? first : sortedRanks.length - afterLast\n  return logChoose(tieSize, selectedN - fixed)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the two-sample rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled midranks into the null distribution of group\n * a's rank sum over every `C(n₁+n₂, n₁)` split — identical to enumerating the\n * splits, but `O(N·n₁·ΣR)` instead of `O(C(N,n₁)·n₁n₂)`. Conditioning on the\n * realised multiset makes the tie handling exact rather than a correction.\n *\n * The null is symmetric about `n₁n₂/2` (negating every value maps `U → n₁n₂ −\n * U` and permutes the split set onto itself), so the two-sided p is the mass\n * at least as far from the centre as the observation.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  n1: number,\n  n2: number,\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  // ways[k][s] = number of size-k subsets whose doubled rank sum is s.\n  const ways: Float64Array[] = Array.from({ length: n1 + 1 }, () => new Float64Array(width))\n  ways[0]![0] = 1\n  let placed = 0\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    for (let k = Math.min(n1, placed + 1); k >= 1; k--) {\n      const from = ways[k - 1]!\n      const into = ways[k]!\n      for (let sum = maxSum - rank; sum >= 0; sum--) {\n        const count = from[sum]!\n        if (count !== 0) into[sum + rank]! += count\n      }\n    }\n    placed++\n  }\n\n  // U = rankSum − n₁(n₁+1)/2, so doubled U = s − n₁(n₁+1), and the doubled\n  // centre 2·(n₁n₂/2) is n₁n₂.\n  const shift = n1 * (n1 + 1) + n1 * n2\n  const chosen = ways[n1]!\n  let totalWays = 0\n  let extremeWays = 0\n  let tailWays = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const count = chosen[sum]!\n    if (count === 0) continue\n    totalWays += count\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - shift)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tailWays += count\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extremeWays = count\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extremeWays += count\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: tailWays / totalWays, pFloor: extremeWays / totalWays }\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the paired signed-rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled absolute midranks over all `2ⁿ` sign\n * assignments in `O(n·ΣR)`. Probabilities rather than counts keep `2ⁿ` off the\n * arithmetic. The null is symmetric about `n(n+1)/4`.\n */\nfunction exactSignedRankP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  let mass = new Float64Array(width)\n  mass[0] = 1\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    const next = new Float64Array(width)\n    for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n      const probability = mass[sum]!\n      if (probability === 0) continue\n      next[sum]! += probability * 0.5\n      next[sum + rank]! += probability * 0.5\n    }\n    mass = next\n  }\n\n  const centre = maxSum / 2\n  let tail = 0\n  let extreme = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const probability = mass[sum]!\n    if (probability === 0) continue\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - centre)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tail += probability\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extreme = probability\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extreme += probability\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: Math.min(1, tail), pFloor: Math.min(1, extreme) }\n}\n","/**\n * Matched-pair arm comparison — \"did the treatment arm beat the baseline arm\n * on the SAME work items?\"\n *\n * An arm A/B over run records is only trustworthy when it is PAIRED: the same\n * task/scenario/seed evaluated under both arms, compared item-by-item, so\n * inter-item difficulty variance cancels instead of masquerading as an arm\n * effect. This module owns the two error-prone steps every consumer otherwise\n * hand-rolls:\n *\n *   1. Pairing — matching rows across arms by `pairKey` (and by `repKey`\n *      within multi-rep items), with leftovers REPORTED rather than silently\n *      dropped (a silently unbalanced pairing biases every paired statistic\n *      downstream). Pairing never keys on outcome content: matching reps by\n *      their outcomes deflates discordant-pair counts and makes McNemar\n *      anti-conservative, so reps pair only by (`pairKey`, `repKey`) identity.\n *   2. Composition — feeding the matched pairs to the correct paired\n *      estimators that already live in `statistics`: `mcnemar` +\n *      `pairedRiskDifference` for pass/fail, `pairedBootstrap` +\n *      `wilcoxonSignedRank` for continuous metrics. No statistic is\n *      re-implemented here.\n *\n * The row shape is deliberately structural — callers project a `RunRecord`\n * (or any record) into `{ pairKey, arm, pass?, metrics? }`. Arm names are\n * caller-supplied parameters; the module ships no domain literal.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport type { McNemarResult, PairedBootstrapOptions, PairedBootstrapResult } from './statistics'\nimport {\n  mcnemar,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedRiskDifference,\n  type RiskDifferenceResult,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n/** One arm observation of one work item. Structural on purpose: callers\n *  project their own record type (e.g. a `RunRecord`) into this shape. */\nexport interface PairedArmRow {\n  /** Matching key — rows sharing a `pairKey` across both arms form pairs\n   *  (typically the task/scenario/seed identity). */\n  pairKey: string\n  /** Rep identity within a `pairKey` (e.g. a seed or rep number). Required on\n   *  every row of a `pairKey` that has more than one rep in either arm; reps\n   *  then pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`) match, never on outcome\n   *  content. Optional when each arm has at most one rep of the item. */\n  repKey?: string\n  /** Arm label this row was produced under. */\n  arm: string\n  /** Binary outcome; omit when the comparison has no pass/fail notion. */\n  pass?: boolean\n  /** Named numeric measurements (score, cost, latency, …). */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Arm treated as the control side of every pair. */\n  baselineArm: string\n  /** Arm treated as the treatment side of every pair. */\n  treatmentArm: string\n}\n\n/** One matched (baseline, treatment) observation of the same work item. */\nexport interface MatchedPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  /** 0-based position of this pair within its `pairKey`, ordered by sorted\n   *  `repKey` (always 0 for a single-rep item). The rep identity itself is on\n   *  the rows (`baseline.repKey` / `treatment.repKey`). */\n  repIndex: number\n  baseline: PairedArmRow\n  treatment: PairedArmRow\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsResult {\n  /** Matched pairs, ordered by (`pairKey`, `repIndex`). */\n  pairs: MatchedPair[]\n  /** Baseline rows left without a treatment counterpart — reported, never\n   *  silently dropped. */\n  unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[]\n  /** Treatment rows left without a baseline counterpart. */\n  unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Match rows across two arms into (baseline, treatment) pairs by `pairKey`.\n *\n * A `pairKey` with at most one row per arm pairs directly, no `repKey`\n * needed. A `pairKey` with multiple reps in either arm requires `repKey` on\n * every one of its rows, and reps pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`)\n * match — pairing is keyed purely on row identity, never on outcome content\n * (outcome-keyed matching deflates discordant counts and biases McNemar), and\n * is therefore independent of input order. Reps whose `repKey` has no\n * counterpart in the other arm, and items present in only one arm, land in\n * the unpaired lists — reported, never truncated.\n *\n * Fail-loud: throws when either named arm has zero rows (an unknown arm\n * name would otherwise read as \"everything unpaired\"), when the two arm\n * names are equal, when a multi-rep `pairKey` has a row without `repKey`, or\n * when a (`pairKey`, arm) group repeats a `repKey` (the match would be\n * ambiguous).\n */\nexport function pairArms(rows: readonly PairedArmRow[], opts: PairArmsOptions): PairArmsResult {\n  const { baselineArm, treatmentArm } = opts\n  if (baselineArm === treatmentArm) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `pairArms: baselineArm and treatmentArm are both '${baselineArm}' — an arm cannot be compared to itself`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  // arm → pairKey → rows\n  const byArm = new Map<string, Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>>()\n  const armsSeen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    armsSeen.add(row.arm)\n    if (row.arm !== baselineArm && row.arm !== treatmentArm) continue\n    const byKey = byArm.get(row.arm) ?? new Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>()\n    const group = byKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n    byArm.set(row.arm, byKey)\n  }\n\n  for (const arm of [baselineArm, treatmentArm]) {\n    if (!byArm.has(arm)) {\n      const seen = [...armsSeen].sort().join(', ') || '<none>'\n      throw new ValidationError(`pairArms: no rows for arm '${arm}' (arms present: ${seen})`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  const baselineByKey = byArm.get(baselineArm)!\n  const treatmentByKey = byArm.get(treatmentArm)!\n\n  const allKeys = [...new Set([...baselineByKey.keys(), ...treatmentByKey.keys()])].sort()\n  const pairs: MatchedPair[] = []\n  const unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  const unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  for (const pairKey of allKeys) {\n    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n    const t = treatmentByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n\n    if (b.length <= 1 && t.length <= 1) {\n      if (b.length === 1 && t.length === 1) {\n        const baseline = b[0]!\n        const treatment = t[0]!\n        if (baseline.repKey !== undefined || treatment.repKey !== undefined) {\n          if (\n            baseline.repKey === undefined ||\n            treatment.repKey === undefined ||\n            baseline.repKey !== treatment.repKey\n          ) {\n            unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n            unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n            continue\n          }\n        }\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: 0, baseline, treatment })\n      } else {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(...b)\n        unpairedTreatment.push(...t)\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n\n    const bByRep = indexByRepKey(b, pairKey, baselineArm)\n    const tByRep = indexByRepKey(t, pairKey, treatmentArm)\n    const repKeys = [...new Set([...bByRep.keys(), ...tByRep.keys()])].sort()\n    let repIndex = 0\n    for (const repKey of repKeys) {\n      const baseline = bByRep.get(repKey)\n      const treatment = tByRep.get(repKey)\n      if (baseline !== undefined && treatment !== undefined) {\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: repIndex++, baseline, treatment })\n      } else if (baseline !== undefined) {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n      } else if (treatment !== undefined) {\n        unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment }\n}\n\n/** Index a multi-rep (pairKey, arm) group by `repKey`, enforcing that every\n *  row carries one and that no repKey repeats within the group. */\nfunction indexByRepKey(\n  group: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  pairKey: string,\n  arm: string,\n): Map<string, PairedArmRow> {\n  const byRep = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of group) {\n    if (row.repKey === undefined) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: pairKey '${pairKey}' has multiple reps in an arm, but a row in arm '${arm}' ` +\n          `is missing repKey — multi-rep items require an explicit repKey on every row so reps ` +\n          `pair by identity (pairing reps by outcome or by index would bias the paired statistics)`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (byRep.has(row.repKey)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: duplicate repKey '${row.repKey}' for pairKey '${pairKey}' in arm '${arm}' — ` +\n          `(pairKey, repKey) must uniquely identify a rep within an arm`,\n      )\n    }\n    byRep.set(row.repKey, row)\n  }\n  return byRep\n}\n\n/** Paired pass/fail comparison over the pairs where BOTH sides carry `pass`. */\nexport interface PairedCorrectness {\n  /** Discordant pairs where the treatment passed and the baseline failed. */\n  b10: number\n  /** Discordant pairs where the baseline passed and the treatment failed. */\n  b01: number\n  /** Exact McNemar significance over the paired outcomes (`b === b10`, `c === b01`). */\n  mcnemar: McNemarResult\n  /** Paired effect size: p(treatment) − p(baseline) with a paired-variance CI. */\n  riskDifference: RiskDifferenceResult\n}\n\n/** Paired delta summary for one named metric (delta = treatment − baseline). */\nexport interface PairedMetricDelta {\n  name: string\n  /** Pairs where BOTH sides carry a finite value for this metric. */\n  n: number\n  /** Pairs where at least one side does not carry the metric. */\n  nMissing: number\n  /** Median paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  medianDelta: number | null\n  /** Mean paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  meanDelta: number | null\n  /** Bootstrap CI on the paired delta (`pairedBootstrap`); null when\n   *  `n === 0` — a zero-width [0, 0] interval on no data would read as a\n   *  measured tight null. */\n  bootstrapCi: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n  /** Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the paired deltas; null when `n === 0`. */\n  wilcoxon: { w: number; p: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface ComparePairedArmsOptions extends PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Metrics to compare. Default: every metric name observed on any matched\n   *  pair, sorted. A name that appears on no pair is still reported (with\n   *  `n = 0`) so a misspelled metric is visible instead of vanishing. */\n  metricNames?: string[]\n  /** Passed through to `pairedBootstrap` — set `seed` for reproducible CIs. */\n  bootstrap?: PairedBootstrapOptions\n}\n\nexport interface PairedArmsComparison {\n  nPairs: number\n  nUnpairedBaseline: number\n  nUnpairedTreatment: number\n  /** null when no matched pair carries `pass` on both sides — a pass/fail\n   *  verdict over rows that never measured pass/fail would be fabricated. */\n  correctness: PairedCorrectness | null\n  metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Full matched-pair arm comparison: pair via {@link pairArms}, then compose\n * the paired estimators from `statistics` over the matched pairs.\n *\n * Correctness uses only the pairs where both sides carry `pass` (`mcnemar.n`\n * is that subset's size); each metric uses only the pairs where both sides\n * carry a finite value for it, with the remainder counted in `nMissing`.\n * Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout.\n *\n * Fail-loud: inherits {@link pairArms}'s unknown-arm throw, and throws on a\n * non-finite metric value — silently treating corrupt telemetry as \"metric\n * absent\" would misreport it as missing coverage.\n */\nexport function comparePairedArms(\n  rows: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  opts: ComparePairedArmsOptions,\n): PairedArmsComparison {\n  const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(rows, opts)\n\n  let correctness: PairedCorrectness | null = null\n  const baselinePass: number[] = []\n  const treatmentPass: number[] = []\n  for (const pair of pairs) {\n    if (pair.baseline.pass === undefined || pair.treatment.pass === undefined) continue\n    baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0)\n    treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0)\n  }\n  if (baselinePass.length > 0) {\n    const mc = mcnemar(baselinePass, treatmentPass)\n    correctness = {\n      b10: mc.b,\n      b01: mc.c,\n      mcnemar: mc,\n      riskDifference: pairedRiskDifference(baselinePass, treatmentPass),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const metricNames =\n    opts.metricNames ??\n    [\n      ...new Set(\n        pairs.flatMap((p) => [\n          ...Object.keys(p.baseline.metrics ?? {}),\n          ...Object.keys(p.treatment.metrics ?? {}),\n        ]),\n      ),\n    ].sort()\n\n  const metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[] = metricNames.map((name) => {\n    const before: number[] = []\n    const after: number[] = []\n    let nMissing = 0\n    for (const pair of pairs) {\n      const b = metricValue(pair.baseline, name)\n      const t = metricValue(pair.treatment, name)\n      if (b === undefined || t === undefined) {\n        nMissing++\n        continue\n      }\n      before.push(b)\n      after.push(t)\n    }\n    const bootstrapCi = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts.bootstrap)\n    return {\n      name,\n      n: before.length,\n      nMissing,\n      medianDelta: bootstrapCi?.median ?? null,\n      meanDelta: bootstrapCi?.mean ?? null,\n      bootstrapCi,\n      wilcoxon: before.length === 0 ? null : wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after),\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    nPairs: pairs.length,\n    nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,\n    nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,\n    correctness,\n    metricDeltas,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface MatchedRunRecordPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey: string\n  baseline: RunRecord\n  treatment: RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface PairRunRecordsResult {\n  pairs: MatchedRunRecordPair[]\n  unpairedBaseline: RunRecord[]\n  unpairedTreatment: RunRecord[]\n}\n\ninterface RunRecordArmRow extends PairedArmRow {\n  run: RunRecord\n  repKey: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Pair two RunRecord arms by the identity of the evaluated work:\n * `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * Falling back to array order, candidate id, or experiment id can compare\n * different tasks and fabricate lift. Duplicate identities throw.\n */\nexport function pairRunRecords(\n  baselineRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n  treatmentRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n): PairRunRecordsResult {\n  const baselineRows = runRecordArmRows(baselineRuns, 'baseline')\n  const treatmentRows = runRecordArmRows(treatmentRuns, 'treatment')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(baselineRows, 'baseline')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(treatmentRows, 'treatment')\n  if (baselineRows.length === 0 || treatmentRows.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      pairs: [],\n      unpairedBaseline: baselineRows.map((row) => row.run),\n      unpairedTreatment: treatmentRows.map((row) => row.run),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const result = pairArms([...baselineRows, ...treatmentRows], {\n    baselineArm: 'baseline',\n    treatmentArm: 'treatment',\n  })\n  return {\n    pairs: result.pairs.map((pair) => {\n      const baseline = pair.baseline as RunRecordArmRow\n      const treatment = pair.treatment as RunRecordArmRow\n      return {\n        pairKey: pair.pairKey,\n        repKey: baseline.repKey,\n        baseline: baseline.run,\n        treatment: treatment.run,\n      }\n    }),\n    unpairedBaseline: result.unpairedBaseline.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n    unpairedTreatment: result.unpairedTreatment.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction runRecordArmRows(runs: readonly RunRecord[], arm: string): RunRecordArmRow[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => {\n    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId.trim()\n    if (!scenarioId) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairRunRecords: run '${run.runId}' is missing scenarioId; paired comparisons require explicit scenario identity`,\n      )\n    }\n    return {\n      pairKey: JSON.stringify([run.experimentId, scenarioId]),\n      repKey: String(run.seed),\n      arm,\n      run,\n    }\n  })\n}\n\nfunction validateRunRecordArmRows(rows: readonly RunRecordArmRow[], arm: string): void {\n  const byPairKey = new Map<string, RunRecordArmRow[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    const group = byPairKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byPairKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n  }\n  for (const [pairKey, group] of byPairKey) {\n    if (group.length > 1) indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction metricValue(row: PairedArmRow, name: string): number | undefined {\n  const v = row.metrics?.[name]\n  if (v === undefined) return undefined\n  if (!Number.isFinite(v)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 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package/dist/render-Cs34y0iX.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"render-Cs34y0iX.js","names":["round","round","round","record","record","round"],"sources":["../src/supervisor-run/analyze-context.ts","../src/supervisor-run/analyze-decision.ts","../src/supervisor-run/analyze-economics.ts","../src/supervisor-run/analyze-orchestration.ts","../src/supervisor-run/patch-stats.ts","../src/supervisor-run/analyze-outcome.ts","../src/supervisor-run/analyze-spend.ts","../src/supervisor-run/analyze.ts","../src/supervisor-run/coordination-reader.ts","../src/supervisor-run/runtime-source-limits.ts","../src/supervisor-run/runtime-reader.ts","../src/supervisor-run/reader.ts","../src/supervisor-run/render.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { parseJsonRecord, parseSupervisorTree, type SpawnRow } from './source-facts'\nimport { readTerminalRecord } from './terminal-record'\nimport { type SupervisorRunSources, type Unavailable, unavailable } from './types'\n\n/** The parsed sources and shared lookups every metric group reads. `gap` records an unavailable measurement on the report. */\nexport function createAnalysis(src: SupervisorRunSources) {\n  const gaps: string[] = []\n  const gap = (what: string, reason: string): Unavailable => {\n    gaps.push(`${what}: ${reason}`)\n    return unavailable(reason)\n  }\n\n  const journalMissing =\n    src.journalMissingReason ??\n    (src.supRunDir === null ? 'no Runtime supervisor run directory' : 'journal.jsonl absent')\n  const haveJournal = src.journal !== null\n  const tree = parseSupervisorTree(src)\n  const state = tree.state\n  const result = parseJsonRecord(src.result)\n  const judge = parseJsonRecord(src.judge)\n  // Runtime's terminal record is named on the report so a status never arrives unlabeled.\n  const terminal = readTerminalRecord({\n    state,\n    result,\n    failure: src.failure === undefined ? undefined : parseJsonRecord(src.failure),\n  })\n  const { rootId, workerSpawns, workerCloses, startedAt, completedAt } = tree\n  const rootSpawn =\n    rootId === null ? null : (tree.spawns.find((spawn) => spawn.id === rootId) ?? null)\n  const spawnById = new Map(workerSpawns.map((spawn) => [spawn.id, spawn]))\n  const spawnsByLabel = new Map<string, SpawnRow[]>()\n  for (const spawn of workerSpawns) {\n    const matches = spawnsByLabel.get(spawn.label) ?? []\n    matches.push(spawn)\n    spawnsByLabel.set(spawn.label, matches)\n  }\n  const spawnsForSource = (\n    worker: NonNullable<SupervisorRunSources['workers']>[number],\n  ): readonly SpawnRow[] => {\n    if (worker.workerId === undefined) return spawnsByLabel.get(worker.label) ?? []\n    const spawn = spawnById.get(worker.workerId)\n    return spawn === undefined ? [] : [spawn]\n  }\n  const spawnForSource = (\n    worker: NonNullable<SupervisorRunSources['workers']>[number],\n  ): SpawnRow | null => {\n    const matches = spawnsForSource(worker)\n    return matches.length === 1 ? (matches[0] ?? null) : null\n  }\n  const closeById = new Map(workerCloses.map((close) => [close.id, close]))\n  const workersGapReason = src.workersMissingReason ?? 'workers/ directory absent'\n  return {\n    src,\n    gaps,\n    gap,\n    journalMissing,\n    haveJournal,\n    tree,\n    state,\n    result,\n    judge,\n    terminal,\n    rootId,\n    rootSpawn,\n    workerSpawns,\n    workerCloses,\n    startedAt,\n    completedAt,\n    spawnsForSource,\n    spawnForSource,\n    closeById,\n    workersGapReason,\n  }\n}\n\nexport type Analysis = ReturnType<typeof createAnalysis>\n","import type { Analysis } from './analyze-context'\nimport type { StepFacts } from './analyze-orchestration'\nimport { workerSourceKey } from './source-facts'\nimport { type DecisionMetrics, unavailable } from './types'\n\n/** Settled verdicts, acceptance and review effort, with a named gap wherever the store never said. */\nexport function measureDecision(a: Analysis, m: StepFacts): DecisionMetrics {\n  const {\n    src,\n    gap,\n    journalMissing,\n    haveJournal,\n    tree,\n    workerCloses,\n    spawnForSource,\n    closeById,\n    workersGapReason,\n  } = a\n  const {\n    steerQueuedTotal,\n    upLegMessages,\n    queuedGapReason,\n    workerEventsGapReason,\n    observeThenRespawn,\n    respawnWithoutEvidence,\n  } = m\n  // ── decision quality ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n  const settledByStatus: Record<string, number> = {}\n  const settledVerdicts: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const c of workerCloses) {\n    const key = c.status ?? 'unknown'\n    settledByStatus[key] = (settledByStatus[key] ?? 0) + 1\n    if (c.verdict !== null) settledVerdicts[c.verdict] = (settledVerdicts[c.verdict] ?? 0) + 1\n  }\n\n  // A store with no verify step never says pass or fail. Counting its silent\n  // workers as `rejected: 0 / accepted: 0` would read as \"nothing was accepted\".\n  const verdictLimit = src.limits.workerVerdicts\n  // A store that retains no delivered patch still SETTLES a verdict, and that verdict is\n  // the acceptance decision it recorded. Only the split between a green verdict backed by\n  // a patch and a green verdict with nothing behind it needs patch bytes, so the\n  // deliverables limit takes `emptyPass` and leaves `accepted` measured.\n  const deliverablesLimit = src.limits.deliverables\n  let accepted = 0\n  let emptyPass = 0\n  let evidenceBytes = 0\n  const sourceVerdicts: boolean[] = []\n  for (const w of src.workers ?? []) {\n    const f = tree.workerLogs.get(workerSourceKey(w))\n    if (f?.finished) evidenceBytes += f.evidenceBytes\n    const spawn = spawnForSource(w)\n    const close = spawn === null ? null : (closeById.get(spawn.id) ?? null)\n    const passed = close?.valid ?? f?.passed ?? null\n    if (passed !== null) sourceVerdicts.push(passed)\n    if (passed === true) {\n      if (deliverablesLimit !== null || (w.patchBytes ?? f?.finishedPatchBytes ?? 0) > 0) {\n        accepted += 1\n      } else {\n        emptyPass += 1\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  const settledCloses = workerCloses.filter((close) => close.kind === 'settled')\n  const structuredVerdicts = settledCloses\n    .map((close) => close.valid)\n    .filter((valid): valid is boolean => valid !== null)\n  const journalVerdictsComplete =\n    settledCloses.length > 0 && structuredVerdicts.length === settledCloses.length\n  const sourceVerdictsComplete =\n    sourceVerdicts.length > 0 && sourceVerdicts.length >= settledCloses.length\n  const rejected = journalVerdictsComplete\n    ? structuredVerdicts.filter((valid) => !valid).length\n    : sourceVerdictsComplete\n      ? sourceVerdicts.filter((valid) => !valid).length\n      : 0\n  const rejectedLimit =\n    journalVerdictsComplete || sourceVerdictsComplete\n      ? null\n      : settledCloses.length > 0\n        ? (verdictLimit ?? 'a settled journal verdict has no validity and no matched worker log')\n        : verdictLimit !== null\n          ? verdictLimit\n          : !haveJournal && src.workers === null\n            ? workersGapReason\n            : null\n\n  const decision: DecisionMetrics = {\n    settledByStatus: haveJournal ? settledByStatus : gap('settledByStatus', journalMissing),\n    settledVerdicts:\n      verdictLimit !== null\n        ? unavailable(verdictLimit)\n        : haveJournal\n          ? settledVerdicts\n          : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    accepted:\n      verdictLimit !== null\n        ? gap('accepted', verdictLimit)\n        : src.workers === null\n          ? unavailable(workersGapReason)\n          : accepted,\n    rejected: rejectedLimit === null ? rejected : unavailable(rejectedLimit),\n    emptyPass:\n      verdictLimit !== null\n        ? gap('emptyPass', verdictLimit)\n        : deliverablesLimit !== null\n          ? gap('emptyPass', deliverablesLimit)\n          : src.workers === null\n            ? unavailable(workersGapReason)\n            : emptyPass,\n    observeThenRespawn: haveJournal ? observeThenRespawn : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    respawnWithoutEvidence: haveJournal ? respawnWithoutEvidence : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    reviewActions:\n      src.workers === null\n        ? unavailable(workersGapReason)\n        : queuedGapReason === null\n          ? steerQueuedTotal + upLegMessages\n          : unavailable(queuedGapReason),\n    workerEvidenceBytes:\n      src.workers === null\n        ? unavailable(workersGapReason)\n        : workerEventsGapReason === null\n          ? evidenceBytes\n          : unavailable(workerEventsGapReason),\n  }\n  return decision\n}\n","import { roundDecimal as round } from '../math/round-decimal'\nimport { summarizeNumberSeries } from '../statistics'\nimport type { Analysis } from './analyze-context'\nimport type { SpendFacts, TotalUsd, WorkerTokens } from './analyze-spend'\nimport { parseJsonl, workerSourceKey } from './source-facts'\nimport {\n  type DecisionMetrics,\n  type EconomicsMetrics,\n  isUnavailable,\n  type PerWorkerRow,\n  type SpendMeasurements,\n  type SupervisorRunSources,\n  unavailable,\n} from './types'\n\nconst NO_CACHE_COUNTERS = 'the journal carries no cache-token counters for this role'\n\nconst NO_CACHE_BREAKDOWN =\n  'Runtime recorded cacheBreakdownKnown:false — the provider reported a total without splitting cache reads from writes'\n\n/** One row per worker log, plus the capture gaps of the root and every worker. */\nexport function buildPerWorker(a: Analysis, f: SpendFacts, t: TotalUsd): PerWorkerRow[] {\n  const { src, gaps, tree, rootId, spawnsForSource, spawnForSource, closeById } = a\n  const { workerUsdById, workerUsdByLabel } = f\n  const { usdLimit } = t\n  const noteCaptureGaps = (\n    owner: string,\n    captures: SupervisorRunSources['rootWorkspaceCaptures'],\n  ): void => {\n    if (captures === null || captures?.length === 0) {\n      gaps.push(`${owner} workspaceCapture: no retained output capture evidence`)\n    } else if (captures !== undefined) {\n      for (const [index, capture] of captures.entries()) {\n        const source = `${owner} workspaceCapture[${index + 1}]`\n        if (capture.projectionGap !== null) gaps.push(`${source}: ${capture.projectionGap}`)\n        if (capture.coverageComplete === false) {\n          gaps.push(\n            `${source}: ${capture.incompleteReason ?? 'provider reported incomplete coverage'}`,\n          )\n        }\n        if (capture.coverageComplete === null && capture.projectionGap === null) {\n          gaps.push(`${source}: capture coverage was not recorded`)\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  noteCaptureGaps(`root ${rootId ?? src.runRef}`, src.rootWorkspaceCaptures)\n  const perWorker: PerWorkerRow[] = (src.workers ?? []).map((w) => {\n    noteCaptureGaps(`worker ${w.workerId ?? w.label}`, w.workspaceCaptures)\n    const f = tree.workerLogs.get(workerSourceKey(w))\n    const matchingSpawns = spawnsForSource(w)\n    const spawn = spawnForSource(w)\n    const close = spawn === null ? null : (closeById.get(spawn.id) ?? null)\n    const passed = close?.valid ?? f?.passed ?? null\n    const matchingRoles = new Set(matchingSpawns.map((candidate) => candidate.role))\n    const matchingRuntimes = new Set(matchingSpawns.map((candidate) => candidate.runtime))\n    const matchingProfiles = new Set(matchingSpawns.map((candidate) => candidate.profileDigest))\n    const journalWallMs =\n      spawn?.at !== null &&\n      spawn?.at !== undefined &&\n      close?.at !== null &&\n      close?.at !== undefined &&\n      close.at >= spawn.at\n        ? close.at - spawn.at\n        : null\n    return {\n      workerId: w.workerId ?? null,\n      worker: w.label,\n      role: matchingRoles.size === 1 ? (matchingSpawns[0]?.role ?? null) : null,\n      runtime: matchingRuntimes.size === 1 ? (matchingSpawns[0]?.runtime ?? null) : null,\n      profileDigest:\n        matchingProfiles.size === 1 ? (matchingSpawns[0]?.profileDigest ?? null) : null,\n      status: close?.status ?? null,\n      failure: close?.reason ?? null,\n      infra: close?.infra ?? null,\n      wallMs: f?.started != null && f.finishedAt != null ? f.finishedAt - f.started : journalWallMs,\n      tokensIn:\n        w.tokensIn ??\n        (close?.hasSpend === true && close.spend.tokensKnown ? close.spend.tokens.input : null),\n      tokensOut:\n        w.tokensOut ??\n        (close?.hasSpend === true && close.spend.tokensKnown ? close.spend.tokens.output : null),\n      usd:\n        usdLimit !== null\n          ? null\n          : w.workerId === undefined\n            ? (workerUsdByLabel.get(w.label) ?? null)\n            : (workerUsdById.get(w.workerId) ?? null),\n      patchBytes: w.patchBytes ?? f?.finishedPatchBytes ?? null,\n      passed,\n      score: close?.score ?? f?.score ?? null,\n      workspaceCaptures: w.workspaceCaptures ?? null,\n    }\n  })\n  return perWorker\n}\n\n/** The supervisor brain's tokens, cache and USD. */\nfunction buildBrainSpend(\n  a: Analysis,\n  f: SpendFacts,\n  t: TotalUsd,\n): EconomicsMetrics['brain'] {\n  const { src, gap, journalMissing, haveJournal, tree } = a\n  const { brainTokensUnreported, brainUsdUnreported } = f\n  const { usdLimit } = t\n  const managerTokenLimit = src.limits.managerTokens\n  return {\n    tokensIn:\n      managerTokenLimit !== null\n        ? gap('brain.tokensIn', managerTokenLimit)\n        : !haveJournal\n          ? gap('brain.tokensIn', journalMissing)\n          : brainTokensUnreported !== null\n            ? gap('brain.tokensIn', brainTokensUnreported)\n            : tree.brain.tokensIn,\n    tokensOut:\n      managerTokenLimit !== null\n        ? unavailable(managerTokenLimit)\n        : !haveJournal\n          ? unavailable(journalMissing)\n          : brainTokensUnreported !== null\n            ? unavailable(brainTokensUnreported)\n            : tree.brain.tokensOut,\n    usd:\n      usdLimit !== null\n        ? unavailable(usdLimit)\n        : !haveJournal\n          ? unavailable(journalMissing)\n          : brainUsdUnreported !== null\n            ? unavailable(brainUsdUnreported)\n            : round(tree.brain.usd, 6),\n    cacheRead:\n      managerTokenLimit !== null\n        ? unavailable(managerTokenLimit)\n        : !haveJournal\n          ? unavailable(journalMissing)\n          : brainTokensUnreported !== null\n            ? unavailable(brainTokensUnreported)\n            : !tree.brain.hasCache\n              ? unavailable(NO_CACHE_COUNTERS)\n              : tree.brain.cacheBreakdownKnown\n                ? tree.brain.cacheRead\n                : unavailable(NO_CACHE_BREAKDOWN),\n    cacheWrite:\n      managerTokenLimit !== null\n        ? unavailable(managerTokenLimit)\n        : !haveJournal\n          ? unavailable(journalMissing)\n          : brainTokensUnreported !== null\n            ? unavailable(brainTokensUnreported)\n            : !tree.brain.hasCache\n              ? unavailable(NO_CACHE_COUNTERS)\n              : tree.brain.cacheBreakdownKnown\n                ? tree.brain.cacheWrite\n                : unavailable(NO_CACHE_BREAKDOWN),\n    source:\n      managerTokenLimit ??\n      (haveJournal\n        ? `journal metered events (n=${tree.brain.meteredCount})${\n            tree.brain.usdKnownCount > 0 && tree.brain.usdUnknownCount > 0\n              ? ` — ${tree.brain.usdUnknownCount} unpriced`\n              : ''\n          }`\n        : journalMissing),\n  }\n}\n\n/** The workers' tokens, cache and USD. */\nfunction buildWorkerSpend(\n  a: Analysis,\n  f: SpendFacts,\n  t: TotalUsd,\n  w: WorkerTokens,\n): EconomicsMetrics['workers'] {\n  const { src, journalMissing, haveJournal } = a\n  const { rootChildSpends, workerUsdUnknownNodes, journalWorkerUsd, workerUsdUnreported } = f\n  const { usdLimit } = t\n  const { sq, workerTokenLimit, workerIn, workerOut } = w\n  return {\n    tokensIn: workerIn,\n    tokensOut: workerOut,\n    cacheRead:\n      workerTokenLimit !== null\n        ? unavailable(workerTokenLimit)\n        : sq?.cacheRead !== undefined\n          ? sq.cacheRead\n          : unavailable(NO_CACHE_COUNTERS),\n    cacheWrite:\n      workerTokenLimit !== null\n        ? unavailable(workerTokenLimit)\n        : sq?.cacheWrite !== undefined\n          ? sq.cacheWrite\n          : unavailable(NO_CACHE_COUNTERS),\n    usd:\n      usdLimit !== null\n        ? unavailable(usdLimit)\n        : !haveJournal\n          ? unavailable(journalMissing)\n          : workerUsdUnreported !== null\n            ? unavailable(workerUsdUnreported)\n            : round(journalWorkerUsd, 6),\n    source: `${\n      workerTokenLimit !== null\n        ? workerTokenLimit\n        : sq !== null\n          ? `journal settled spend + ${sq.store} sessions (n=${sq.sessions})`\n          : `journal settled spend only — ${src.harnessMissingReason ?? 'harness session store unavailable'}`\n    }${\n      workerUsdUnknownNodes.length > 0 && workerUsdUnknownNodes.length < rootChildSpends.length\n        ? ` — ${workerUsdUnknownNodes.length} unpriced`\n        : ''\n    }`,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function buildEconomics(\n  a: Analysis,\n  f: SpendFacts,\n  t: TotalUsd,\n  w: WorkerTokens,\n  e: EconomicsParts,\n): EconomicsMetrics {\n  const { src, gap, journalMissing, haveJournal, tree, workersGapReason } = a\n  const { rootChildCloses, journalWorkerUsd, usdUnknownRecords } = f\n  const { stateUsd, usdLimit, totalUsd, usdUnreportedReason } = t\n  const { decision, spend, perWorker } = e\n  const wallDistribution = summarizeNumberSeries(\n    perWorker.map((w) => w.wallMs).filter((w): w is number => w !== null),\n  )\n\n  const brainCalls = parseJsonl(src.brainLog)\n  return {\n    resourceRecords:\n      src.journal === null && !tree.resourceRecords?.length\n        ? unavailable(journalMissing)\n        : (tree.resourceRecords ?? []),\n    brain: buildBrainSpend(a, f, t),\n    brainTruncations:\n      src.brainLog === null\n        ? gap(\n            'brain.brainTruncations',\n            src.brainLogMissingReason ??\n              (src.supRunDir === null\n                ? 'no Runtime supervisor run directory'\n                : 'brain.jsonl absent — this source has no brain-call tap, so truncation cannot be ruled out'),\n          )\n        : brainCalls.filter((c) => c.finish_reason === 'length').length,\n    workers: buildWorkerSpend(a, f, t, w),\n    spend,\n    totalUsd,\n    totalUsdSource:\n      usdLimit !== null\n        ? usdLimit\n        : stateUsd !== null\n          ? `state.json result.spentUsd${rootChildCloses.length > 0 && journalWorkerUsd === 0 ? ' — brain-priced only; worker CLI inference is unpriced (see worker token counts)' : ''}`\n          : !haveJournal\n            ? journalMissing\n            : usdUnknownRecords > 0\n              ? usdUnreportedReason\n              : 'journal metered + settled usd',\n    costPerAcceptedPatchUsd: isUnavailable(totalUsd)\n      ? unavailable(totalUsd.unavailable)\n      : isUnavailable(decision.accepted)\n        ? unavailable(decision.accepted.unavailable)\n        : decision.accepted === 0\n          ? unavailable('no accepted worker patch (cost has no denominator)')\n          : round(totalUsd / decision.accepted, 6),\n    workerWallMsDistribution:\n      wallDistribution === null\n        ? unavailable(\n            src.workers === null ? workersGapReason : 'no worker start/finish pairs captured',\n          )\n        : wallDistribution,\n    perWorker: src.workers === null ? unavailable(workersGapReason) : perWorker,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface EconomicsParts {\n  decision: DecisionMetrics\n  spend: SpendMeasurements\n  perWorker: PerWorkerRow[]\n}\n","import { roundDecimal as round } from '../math/round-decimal'\nimport type { Analysis } from './analyze-context'\nimport { type SpawnRow, type WorkerLogFacts, workerSourceKey } from './source-facts'\nimport {\n  isUnavailable,\n  type Measured,\n  type OrchestrationMetrics,\n  type SteerBreakdown,\n  unavailable,\n} from './types'\n\n/** Supervisor wall time and where it ends. Explicit stamps win; the journal span is a lower bound; an inverted stamp pair stays unavailable. */\nexport function measureWall(a: Analysis) {\n  const { gap, journalMissing, haveJournal, tree, startedAt, completedAt } = a\n  // Wall provenance: explicit stamps when the store wrote both; otherwise the\n  // journal event span (a lower bound) when there is no completion stamp at\n  // all. A present-but-inverted stamp pair is corruption, not absence, and\n  // stays unavailable.\n  const wallSpanStart = startedAt ?? tree.firstEventAt\n  const wallSpanEnd = tree.lastEventAt\n  let supervisorWallMs: Measured<number>\n  let supervisorWallSource: Measured<'stamps' | 'journal-span'>\n  if (startedAt !== null && completedAt !== null && completedAt >= startedAt) {\n    supervisorWallMs = completedAt - startedAt\n    supervisorWallSource = 'stamps'\n  } else if (\n    completedAt === null &&\n    wallSpanStart !== null &&\n    wallSpanEnd !== null &&\n    wallSpanEnd >= wallSpanStart\n  ) {\n    supervisorWallMs = wallSpanEnd - wallSpanStart\n    supervisorWallSource = 'journal-span'\n  } else {\n    const reason = !haveJournal\n      ? journalMissing\n      : 'no parseable start/complete timestamps in state.json or journal'\n    supervisorWallMs = gap('supervisorWallMs', reason)\n    supervisorWallSource = unavailable(reason)\n  }\n  // Where the measured wall ends — the completion stamp, or the last stamped\n  // journal event on the journal-span path. Idle and utilization integrate to\n  // this bound so their denominator is the wall they are reported against.\n  const wallEndAt = completedAt ?? (supervisorWallSource === 'journal-span' ? wallSpanEnd : null)\n  return { supervisorWallMs, supervisorWallSource, wallEndAt }\n}\n\n/** Steer counts from worker inboxes and the driver log. */\nexport function measureSteers(a: Analysis) {\n  const { src, gap, tree, workersGapReason } = a\n  // ── steers (worker inbox + control events) ─────────────────────────────\n  const steerRows: SteerBreakdown[] = []\n  let steerQueuedTotal = 0\n  let steerDeliveredTotal = 0\n  let upLegMessages = 0\n  if (src.workers !== null) {\n    for (const w of src.workers) {\n      const facts = tree.workerLogs.get(workerSourceKey(w))\n      const queued = facts?.steersQueued ?? null\n      const delivered = facts?.steersDelivered ?? null\n      upLegMessages += facts?.questions ?? 0\n      if (queued !== null && delivered !== null) {\n        steerRows.push({ workerId: w.workerId ?? null, worker: w.label, queued, delivered })\n      }\n      if (queued !== null) steerQueuedTotal += queued\n      if (delivered !== null) steerDeliveredTotal += delivered\n    }\n  }\n  const unavailableReasons = (pick: (facts: WorkerLogFacts) => string | null): string | null => {\n    const reasons = tree.workerLogRows\n      .map((facts) => pick(facts))\n      .filter((reason): reason is string => reason !== null)\n    return reasons.length === 0\n      ? null\n      : `exact steer accounting unavailable for ${reasons.length} worker row(s): ${[...new Set(reasons)].join(' | ')}`\n  }\n  const queuedGapReason = unavailableReasons((facts) => facts.steersQueuedUnavailable)\n  const deliveredGapReason = unavailableReasons((facts) => facts.steersDeliveredUnavailable)\n  const workerEventsGapReason = unavailableReasons((facts) =>\n    !facts.eventsCaptured\n      ? 'events absent'\n      : facts.eventsInvalidRows > 0\n        ? 'events contain malformed rows'\n        : null,\n  )\n  const steers: Measured<number> =\n    src.workers === null\n      ? gap('steers', workersGapReason)\n      : queuedGapReason === null\n        ? steerQueuedTotal\n        : gap('steers', queuedGapReason)\n  const steersDelivered: Measured<number> =\n    src.workers === null\n      ? unavailable(workersGapReason)\n      : deliveredGapReason === null\n        ? steerDeliveredTotal\n        : unavailable(deliveredGapReason)\n  const steersByWorker: Measured<readonly SteerBreakdown[]> =\n    src.workers === null\n      ? unavailable(workersGapReason)\n      : queuedGapReason === null && deliveredGapReason === null\n        ? steerRows\n        : unavailable(queuedGapReason ?? deliveredGapReason ?? workersGapReason)\n\n  // The `[driver] registered tools: …supervisor_steer…` banner names the verb without\n  // invoking it, so banner lines are subtracted from the raw mention count.\n  const driverSteerCalls: Measured<number> =\n    src.driverLog === null\n      ? gap('driverSteerCalls', 'driver.log absent')\n      : Math.max(\n          0,\n          (src.driverLog.match(/supervisor_steer/g) ?? []).length -\n            registrationMentions(src.driverLog),\n        )\n  return {\n    steers,\n    steersDelivered,\n    steersByWorker,\n    driverSteerCalls,\n    steerQueuedTotal,\n    upLegMessages,\n    queuedGapReason,\n    workerEventsGapReason,\n  }\n}\n\n/** Waves, peak concurrency, idle time and summed worker wall from the spawn/close timeline. */\nexport function measureConcurrency(a: Analysis, wallEndAt: number | null) {\n  const { workerSpawns, workerCloses, startedAt } = a\n  const timeline: { at: number; delta: 1 | -1 }[] = []\n  for (const s of workerSpawns) if (s.at !== null) timeline.push({ at: s.at, delta: 1 })\n  for (const c of workerCloses) if (c.at !== null) timeline.push({ at: c.at, delta: -1 })\n  timeline.sort((a, b) => a.at - b.at || a.delta - b.delta)\n\n  let waves = 0\n  const waveSizes: number[] = []\n  let closedSinceWaveStart = true\n  for (const step of timeline) {\n    if (step.delta === 1) {\n      if (closedSinceWaveStart) {\n        waves += 1\n        waveSizes.push(0)\n        closedSinceWaveStart = false\n      }\n      waveSizes[waveSizes.length - 1] = (waveSizes[waveSizes.length - 1] ?? 0) + 1\n    } else {\n      closedSinceWaveStart = true\n    }\n  }\n\n  let live = 0\n  let maxConcurrency = 0\n  let idleMs = 0\n  let sumWorkerWallMs = 0\n  let prev = startedAt\n  for (const step of timeline) {\n    if (prev !== null && step.at >= prev) {\n      const span = step.at - prev\n      if (live === 0) idleMs += span\n      sumWorkerWallMs += span * live\n    }\n    live += step.delta\n    if (live > maxConcurrency) maxConcurrency = live\n    prev = step.at\n  }\n  if (prev !== null && wallEndAt !== null && wallEndAt >= prev) {\n    const span = wallEndAt - prev\n    if (live === 0) idleMs += span\n    sumWorkerWallMs += span * live\n  }\n  return { waves, waveSizes, maxConcurrency, idleMs, sumWorkerWallMs }\n}\n\n/** Respawn counts per parent, split by whether a sibling closed in between. */\nexport function measureRespawns(a: Analysis) {\n  const { workerSpawns, closeById } = a\n  const childSpawnsByParent = new Map<string, SpawnRow[]>()\n  for (const spawn of workerSpawns) {\n    if (spawn.parent === null) continue\n    const siblings = childSpawnsByParent.get(spawn.parent) ?? []\n    siblings.push(spawn)\n    childSpawnsByParent.set(spawn.parent, siblings)\n  }\n\n  let respawns = 0\n  let observeThenRespawn = 0\n  let respawnWithoutEvidence = 0\n  const repeatedLabelSet = new Set<string>()\n  for (const siblings of childSpawnsByParent.values()) {\n    const labelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n    for (const spawn of siblings) {\n      labelCounts.set(spawn.label, (labelCounts.get(spawn.label) ?? 0) + 1)\n    }\n    for (const [label, count] of labelCounts) {\n      if (count > 1) repeatedLabelSet.add(label)\n    }\n\n    const orderedSpawns = siblings\n      .map((spawn, index) => ({ spawn, index }))\n      .filter(\n        (row): row is { spawn: SpawnRow & { at: number }; index: number } => row.spawn.at !== null,\n      )\n      .sort((a, b) => a.spawn.at - b.spawn.at || a.index - b.index)\n    const directCloseTimes = siblings\n      .map((spawn) => closeById.get(spawn.id)?.at ?? null)\n      .filter((at): at is number => at !== null)\n      .sort((a, b) => a - b)\n    const firstDirectClose = directCloseTimes[0] ?? null\n\n    for (let i = 1; i < orderedSpawns.length; i += 1) {\n      const previous = orderedSpawns[i - 1]?.spawn.at\n      const current = orderedSpawns[i]?.spawn.at\n      if (previous === undefined || current === undefined) continue\n      if (firstDirectClose === null || current <= firstDirectClose) continue\n      respawns += 1\n      const sawEvidence = hasNumberBetween(directCloseTimes, previous, current)\n      if (sawEvidence) observeThenRespawn += 1\n      else respawnWithoutEvidence += 1\n    }\n  }\n  const repeatedLabels = [...repeatedLabelSet]\n  return { respawns, observeThenRespawn, respawnWithoutEvidence, repeatedLabels }\n}\n\n/** The deepest chain of spawns below the root. */\nexport function measureDelegationDepth(a: Analysis) {\n  const { tree, rootId, workerSpawns } = a\n  const parentOf = new Map(tree.spawns.map((s) => [s.id, s.parent]))\n  let delegationDepth = 0\n  for (const s of workerSpawns) {\n    let d = 0\n    let cur: string | null = s.id\n    const seen = new Set<string>()\n    while (cur !== null && cur !== rootId && !seen.has(cur)) {\n      seen.add(cur)\n      d += 1\n      cur = parentOf.get(cur) ?? null\n    }\n    if (d > delegationDepth) delegationDepth = d\n  }\n  return delegationDepth\n}\n\nexport function buildOrchestration(a: Analysis, m: StepFacts): OrchestrationMetrics {\n  const { gap, journalMissing, haveJournal, workerSpawns, workerCloses, startedAt } = a\n  const {\n    supervisorWallMs,\n    supervisorWallSource,\n    steers,\n    steersDelivered,\n    steersByWorker,\n    driverSteerCalls,\n    waves,\n    waveSizes,\n    maxConcurrency,\n    idleMs,\n    sumWorkerWallMs,\n    respawns,\n    repeatedLabels,\n    delegationDepth,\n  } = m\n  const firstWorkerSpawnAt = workerSpawns.reduce<number | null>(\n    (acc, s) => (s.at === null ? acc : acc === null ? s.at : Math.min(acc, s.at)),\n    null,\n  )\n\n  const orchestration: OrchestrationMetrics = {\n    workersSpawned: haveJournal ? workerSpawns.length : gap('workersSpawned', journalMissing),\n    workersSettled: haveJournal\n      ? workerCloses.filter((c) => c.kind === 'settled').length\n      : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    workersCancelled: haveJournal\n      ? workerCloses.filter((c) => c.kind === 'cancelled').length\n      : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    steers,\n    steersDelivered,\n    steersByWorker,\n    driverSteerCalls,\n    waves: haveJournal ? waves : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    waveSizes: haveJournal ? waveSizes : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    maxConcurrency: haveJournal ? maxConcurrency : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    respawns: haveJournal ? respawns : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    repeatedLabels: haveJournal ? repeatedLabels : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    delegationDepth: haveJournal ? delegationDepth : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    timeToFirstSpawnMs:\n      startedAt !== null && firstWorkerSpawnAt !== null\n        ? firstWorkerSpawnAt - startedAt\n        : haveJournal\n          ? unavailable('no worker spawn timestamps')\n          : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    supervisorWallMs,\n    supervisorWallSource,\n    idleMs: isUnavailable(supervisorWallMs) ? unavailable(supervisorWallMs.unavailable) : idleMs,\n    idlePct:\n      isUnavailable(supervisorWallMs) || supervisorWallMs === 0\n        ? isUnavailable(supervisorWallMs)\n          ? unavailable(supervisorWallMs.unavailable)\n          : unavailable('supervisor wall is 0ms')\n        : round((idleMs / supervisorWallMs) * 100, 1),\n    workerUtilization:\n      isUnavailable(supervisorWallMs) || supervisorWallMs === 0\n        ? isUnavailable(supervisorWallMs)\n          ? unavailable(supervisorWallMs.unavailable)\n          : unavailable('supervisor wall is 0ms')\n        : round(sumWorkerWallMs / supervisorWallMs, 3),\n  }\n  return orchestration\n}\n\n/** Whether sorted values contain one value in the inclusive interval. */\nfunction hasNumberBetween(sorted: readonly number[], low: number, high: number): boolean {\n  let left = 0\n  let right = sorted.length\n  while (left < right) {\n    const middle = left + Math.floor((right - left) / 2)\n    if ((sorted[middle] as number) < low) left = middle + 1\n    else right = middle\n  }\n  return left < sorted.length && (sorted[left] as number) <= high\n}\n\n/** `[driver] registered tools: …supervisor_steer…` is a banner, not an invocation. */\nfunction registrationMentions(driverLog: string): number {\n  let n = 0\n  for (const line of driverLog.split('\\n')) {\n    if (line.includes('registered tools:') && line.includes('supervisor_steer')) n += 1\n  }\n  return n\n}\n\nexport type StepFacts = ReturnType<typeof measureWall> &\n  ReturnType<typeof measureSteers> &\n  ReturnType<typeof measureConcurrency> &\n  ReturnType<typeof measureRespawns> & { delegationDepth: number }\n","/** Unified-diff target, line, and test-file touch counts. */\nimport type { PatchStats } from './types'\n\n/** Unified-diff stats. Counts `+++ b/<path>` targets, body +/- lines, and test-file touches. */\nexport function parsePatch(text: string): PatchStats {\n  const files = new Set<string>()\n  const testFiles = new Set<string>()\n  let added = 0\n  let removed = 0\n  for (const line of text.split('\\n')) {\n    if (line.startsWith('+++ ')) {\n      const p = line.slice(4).trim().replace(/^b\\//, '')\n      if (p !== '/dev/null') {\n        files.add(p)\n        if (isTestPath(p)) testFiles.add(p)\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n    if (line.startsWith('--- ') || line.startsWith('diff --git') || line.startsWith('index ')) {\n      continue\n    }\n    if (line.startsWith('+')) added += 1\n    else if (line.startsWith('-')) removed += 1\n  }\n  return {\n    files: files.size,\n    linesAdded: added,\n    linesRemoved: removed,\n    testFilesTouched: [...testFiles].sort(),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction isTestPath(p: string): boolean {\n  const base = p.split('/').pop() ?? p\n  return (\n    /(^|\\/)(tests?|__tests__|testing|spec)(\\/|$)/.test(p) ||\n    /\\.(test|spec)\\.[cm]?[jt]sx?$/.test(base) ||\n    /^test_.*\\.py$/.test(base) ||\n    /_test\\.py$/.test(base)\n  )\n}\n","import type { Analysis } from './analyze-context'\nimport type { TotalUsd } from './analyze-spend'\nimport { parsePatch } from './patch-stats'\nimport {\n  isUnavailable,\n  type Measured,\n  type OutcomeMetrics,\n  type PatchStats,\n  unavailable,\n} from './types'\n\n/** Terminal status, verdicts, judge result and the delivered patch. */\nexport function buildOutcome(a: Analysis, t: TotalUsd): OutcomeMetrics {\n  const { src, gap, state, result, judge, terminal } = a\n  const { stateResult } = t\n  const patchStats: Measured<PatchStats> =\n    src.patch === null\n      ? gap('patch', src.limits.deliverables ?? 'delivered patch file absent')\n      : parsePatch(src.patch)\n\n  const outcome: OutcomeMetrics = {\n    supStatus: isUnavailable(terminal.supStatus)\n      ? gap('supStatus', terminal.supStatus.unavailable)\n      : terminal.supStatus,\n    supStatusSource: terminal.supStatusSource,\n    supReason: terminal.supReason,\n    failure: terminal.failure,\n    supVerdict:\n      pickString(state, 'verdict') ??\n      pickString(result, 'sup_verdict') ??\n      unavailable('no state.json / result.json verdict'),\n    delivered:\n      typeof stateResult.delivered === 'boolean'\n        ? stateResult.delivered\n        : typeof result?.delivered === 'boolean'\n          ? result.delivered\n          : unavailable('no delivered flag in state.json or result.json'),\n    judgeResolved:\n      judge === null\n        ? gap('judge', 'judge.json absent')\n        : typeof judge.resolved === 'boolean'\n          ? judge.resolved\n          : null,\n    judgeScore:\n      judge === null\n        ? unavailable('judge.json absent')\n        : typeof judge.score === 'number'\n          ? judge.score\n          : null,\n    judgePassed:\n      judge === null\n        ? unavailable('judge.json absent')\n        : typeof judge.passed === 'number'\n          ? judge.passed\n          : null,\n    judgeTotal:\n      judge === null\n        ? unavailable('judge.json absent')\n        : typeof judge.total === 'number'\n          ? judge.total\n          : null,\n    verifyPass:\n      typeof result?.verify_pass === 'boolean'\n        ? result.verify_pass\n        : gap('verifyPass', 'result.json absent or has no verify_pass'),\n    verifyRc:\n      typeof result?.verify_rc === 'number'\n        ? result.verify_rc\n        : unavailable('result.json absent or has no verify_rc'),\n    patch: patchStats,\n    judgeSource: src.judgeSource,\n  }\n  return outcome\n}\n\nfunction pickString(rec: Record<string, unknown> | null, key: string): string | null {\n  const v = rec?.[key]\n  return typeof v === 'string' ? v : null\n}\n","import { roundDecimal as round } from '../math/round-decimal'\nimport type { Analysis } from './analyze-context'\nimport { asRecord } from './source-facts'\nimport { type Measured, type SpendMeasurements, unavailable } from './types'\n\n/** Spend records of the root and its children, split into reporting and unreporting. */\nexport function collectSpendFacts(a: Analysis) {\n  const { tree, rootId, workerSpawns, workerCloses } = a\n  const rootChildIds = new Set(\n    workerSpawns.filter((spawn) => spawn.parent === rootId).map((spawn) => spawn.id),\n  )\n  const rootChildCloses = workerCloses.filter((close) => rootChildIds.has(close.id))\n  // Runtime marks a spend record `usdKnown: false` / `tokensKnown: false` when the work\n  // HAPPENED but no provider receipt covered its price or its tokens. Folding such a record\n  // in prices unreported work at zero; dropping the whole channel discards every record that\n  // DID report. So each channel sums only the reporting records and names the rest.\n  const rootChildSpends = rootChildCloses.filter((close) => close.hasSpend)\n  const workerUsdUnknownNodes = rootChildSpends\n    .filter((close) => !close.spend.usdKnown)\n    .map((close) => close.id)\n  const workerTokensUnknownNodes = rootChildSpends\n    .filter((close) => !close.spend.tokensKnown)\n    .map((close) => close.id)\n  const workerTokenSpends = rootChildSpends.filter((close) => close.spend.tokensKnown)\n  const journalWorkerIn = workerTokenSpends.reduce((a, c) => a + c.spend.tokens.input, 0)\n  const journalWorkerOut = workerTokenSpends.reduce((a, c) => a + c.spend.tokens.output, 0)\n  const journalWorkerUsd = rootChildSpends\n    .filter((close) => close.spend.usdKnown)\n    .reduce((a, c) => a + c.spend.usd, 0)\n  const usdUnknownIds = new Set(\n    workerCloses.filter((close) => close.hasSpend && !close.spend.usdKnown).map((c) => c.id),\n  )\n  const workerUsdById = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const c of workerCloses) {\n    if (usdUnknownIds.has(c.id)) continue\n    workerUsdById.set(c.id, (workerUsdById.get(c.id) ?? 0) + c.spend.usd)\n  }\n  const labelById = new Map(workerSpawns.map((spawn) => [spawn.id, spawn.label]))\n  const usdUnknownLabels = new Set(\n    [...usdUnknownIds].map((id) => labelById.get(id)).filter((l): l is string => l !== undefined),\n  )\n  const workerUsdByLabel = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const close of workerCloses) {\n    const label = labelById.get(close.id)\n    if (label === undefined || usdUnknownLabels.has(label)) continue\n    workerUsdByLabel.set(label, (workerUsdByLabel.get(label) ?? 0) + close.spend.usd)\n  }\n  const brainUsdUnknownNodes =\n    tree.brain.usdUnknownCount > 0 && rootId !== null ? ([rootId] as const) : []\n  const brainTokensUnknownNodes =\n    tree.brain.tokensUnknownCount > 0 && rootId !== null ? ([rootId] as const) : []\n  const usdKnownRecords =\n    tree.brain.usdKnownCount + rootChildSpends.filter((close) => close.spend.usdKnown).length\n  const usdUnknownRecords = tree.brain.usdUnknownCount + workerUsdUnknownNodes.length\n  const usdUnknownNodes = [...brainUsdUnknownNodes, ...workerUsdUnknownNodes]\n  // The named nodes are what makes the gap actionable, but a fleet run can have hundreds,\n  // and this string lands in a report line. Name the first few and count the rest.\n  const NAMED_NODE_LIMIT = 5\n  const nameNodes = (nodes: readonly string[]): string => {\n    if (nodes.length === 0) return ''\n    const shown = nodes.slice(0, NAMED_NODE_LIMIT)\n    const rest = nodes.length - shown.length\n    return ` (${shown.join(', ')}${rest === 0 ? '' : ` +${rest} more`})`\n  }\n  const unpriced = (unknown: number, total: number, nodes: readonly string[]): string =>\n    `Runtime recorded usdKnown:false on ${unknown} of ${total} spend record(s)${nameNodes(nodes)}`\n  // A token total is a bare `Measured<number>` with no record denominator beside it, so a\n  // partial sum there would be an unlabelled floor — the exact collapse this module refuses.\n  // Spend has `SpendMeasurement.records`/`unknownRecords` to carry the split, so it stays\n  // partial; tokens go absent with the unreporting nodes named.\n  const unreportedTokens = (unknown: number, total: number, nodes: readonly string[]): string =>\n    `Runtime recorded tokensKnown:false on ${unknown} of ${total} spend record(s)${nameNodes(nodes)}`\n  const usdPartial = usdKnownRecords > 0 && usdUnknownRecords > 0\n  const usdAllUnknown = usdKnownRecords === 0 && usdUnknownRecords > 0\n  // A role whose records are ALL unreported has nothing measured to report, so it stays\n  // unavailable. A role with some of each keeps its sum and labels it in `source`.\n  const brainTokensUnreported =\n    tree.brain.tokensUnknownCount === 0\n      ? null\n      : unreportedTokens(\n          tree.brain.tokensUnknownCount,\n          tree.brain.meteredCount,\n          brainTokensUnknownNodes,\n        )\n  const brainUsdUnreported =\n    tree.brain.usdKnownCount > 0 || tree.brain.usdUnknownCount === 0\n      ? null\n      : unpriced(tree.brain.usdUnknownCount, tree.brain.meteredCount, brainUsdUnknownNodes)\n  const workerUsdUnreported =\n    workerUsdUnknownNodes.length === 0 || workerUsdUnknownNodes.length < rootChildSpends.length\n      ? null\n      : unpriced(workerUsdUnknownNodes.length, rootChildSpends.length, workerUsdUnknownNodes)\n  return {\n    rootChildCloses,\n    rootChildSpends,\n    workerUsdUnknownNodes,\n    workerTokensUnknownNodes,\n    journalWorkerIn,\n    journalWorkerOut,\n    journalWorkerUsd,\n    workerUsdById,\n    workerUsdByLabel,\n    usdKnownRecords,\n    usdUnknownRecords,\n    usdUnknownNodes,\n    brainUsdUnknownNodes,\n    brainTokensUnknownNodes,\n    unpriced,\n    unreportedTokens,\n    usdPartial,\n    usdAllUnknown,\n    brainTokensUnreported,\n    brainUsdUnreported,\n    workerUsdUnreported,\n  }\n}\n\n/** Worker token totals: journal spend plus harness session counts, or the reason they are absent. */\nexport function measureWorkerTokens(a: Analysis, f: SpendFacts) {\n  const { src, gap, haveJournal } = a\n  const {\n    rootChildSpends,\n    workerTokensUnknownNodes,\n    journalWorkerIn,\n    journalWorkerOut,\n    unreportedTokens,\n  } = f\n  const sq = src.harnessWorkerTokens\n  const harnessGapReason =\n    src.harnessMissingReason ?? 'harness session store unavailable and journal settled spend is 0'\n  const workerTokenLimit = src.limits.workerTokens\n  const workerTokensUnreported =\n    workerTokensUnknownNodes.length === 0\n      ? null\n      : unreportedTokens(\n          workerTokensUnknownNodes.length,\n          rootChildSpends.length,\n          workerTokensUnknownNodes,\n        )\n  const workerIn: Measured<number> =\n    workerTokenLimit !== null\n      ? gap('workers.tokensIn', workerTokenLimit)\n      : workerTokensUnreported !== null\n        ? gap('workers.tokensIn', workerTokensUnreported)\n        : sq !== null\n          ? journalWorkerIn + sq.input\n          : haveJournal\n            ? journalWorkerIn\n            : gap('workers.tokensIn', harnessGapReason)\n  const workerOut: Measured<number> =\n    workerTokenLimit !== null\n      ? unavailable(workerTokenLimit)\n      : workerTokensUnreported !== null\n        ? unavailable(workerTokensUnreported)\n        : sq !== null\n          ? journalWorkerOut + sq.output\n          : haveJournal\n            ? journalWorkerOut\n            : unavailable(harnessGapReason)\n  return { sq, workerTokenLimit, workerIn, workerOut }\n}\n\n/** Total USD and the close record it is read against. */\nexport function measureTotalUsd(a: Analysis, f: SpendFacts) {\n  const { src, gap, journalMissing, haveJournal, tree, state, result } = a\n  const { journalWorkerUsd, usdKnownRecords, usdUnknownRecords, usdUnknownNodes, unpriced } = f\n  const stateResult = asRecord(state?.result)\n  const stateUsd = typeof stateResult.spentUsd === 'number' ? stateResult.spentUsd : null\n  const resultSpentTotal = asRecord(result?.spentTotal)\n  const resultCloseUsd =\n    typeof resultSpentTotal.usd === 'number' && Number.isFinite(resultSpentTotal.usd)\n      ? resultSpentTotal.usd\n      : null\n  // The close record: what the store wrote as settled when the run closed.\n  const closeUsd = stateUsd ?? resultCloseUsd\n  // A store that logs tokens but never a price yields usd 0 from every sum. That\n  // 0 is the store's silence, not a free run, so the limit outranks the sum.\n  const usdLimit = src.limits.spendUsd\n  // The close record carries its own completeness flag: `spentTotal.usdKnown: false` means\n  // Runtime priced part of the run from a catalog, so the number is a floor, not a total.\n  const closeUsdUnreported =\n    stateUsd === null && resultCloseUsd !== null && resultSpentTotal.usdKnown === false\n  const usdUnreportedReason = unpriced(\n    usdUnknownRecords,\n    usdKnownRecords + usdUnknownRecords,\n    usdUnknownNodes,\n  )\n  // Which numbers may be partial, and which must go absent: a number may be a floor only\n  // when its own record carries the known/unknown split beside it — `SpendMeasurement`\n  // has `records`/`unknownRecords`, and `RoleSpend` has `source`. `totalUsd` is a bare\n  // scalar, so a floor there is an unlabelled understatement and stays unavailable; the\n  // partial sum with its denominators lives in `spend.journalDerived`, which this type's\n  // own doc already names as the field to prefer.\n  const totalUsd: Measured<number> =\n    usdLimit !== null\n      ? gap('totalUsd', usdLimit)\n      : stateUsd !== null\n        ? round(stateUsd, 6)\n        : !haveJournal\n          ? gap('totalUsd', journalMissing)\n          : usdUnknownRecords > 0\n            ? gap('totalUsd', usdUnreportedReason)\n            : round(tree.brain.usd + journalWorkerUsd, 6)\n  return {\n    stateResult,\n    stateUsd,\n    usdLimit,\n    totalUsd,\n    closeUsd,\n    closeUsdUnreported,\n    usdUnreportedReason,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function buildSpend(a: Analysis, f: SpendFacts, t: TotalUsd): SpendMeasurements {\n  const { journalMissing, haveJournal, tree, rootId } = a\n  const {\n    journalWorkerUsd,\n    usdKnownRecords,\n    usdUnknownRecords,\n    usdUnknownNodes,\n    usdPartial,\n    usdAllUnknown,\n  } = f\n  const { usdLimit, closeUsd, closeUsdUnreported, usdUnreportedReason } = t\n  const journalSpendRecords = usdKnownRecords\n  // `journalDerived` keeps its partial sum: `records` and `unknownRecords` state exactly\n  // how much of the run it covers. Only an all-unreported channel has nothing to report.\n  const journalDerivedAvailable = usdLimit === null && haveJournal && !usdAllUnknown\n  const closeRecordAvailable = usdLimit === null && closeUsd !== null && !closeUsdUnreported\n  const spend: SpendMeasurements = {\n    journalDerived: {\n      usd: journalDerivedAvailable\n        ? round(tree.brain.usd + journalWorkerUsd, 6)\n        : unavailable(usdLimit ?? (haveJournal ? usdUnreportedReason : journalMissing)),\n      records: journalDerivedAvailable ? journalSpendRecords : 0,\n      unknownRecords: usdLimit === null && haveJournal ? usdUnknownRecords : 0,\n      partial: journalDerivedAvailable && usdPartial,\n      unknownNodes: usdLimit === null && haveJournal ? usdUnknownNodes : [],\n    },\n    closeRecord: {\n      usd: closeRecordAvailable\n        ? round(closeUsd as number, 6)\n        : unavailable(\n            usdLimit ??\n              (closeUsdUnreported\n                ? 'close record incomplete: result.json spentTotal.usdKnown is false'\n                : 'no close record: neither state.json result.spentUsd nor result.json spentTotal.usd is present'),\n          ),\n      records: closeRecordAvailable ? 1 : 0,\n      unknownRecords: closeUsdUnreported ? 1 : 0,\n      partial: false,\n      unknownNodes: closeUsdUnreported && rootId !== null ? [rootId] : [],\n    },\n  }\n  return spend\n}\n\nexport type SpendFacts = ReturnType<typeof collectSpendFacts>\nexport type WorkerTokens = ReturnType<typeof measureWorkerTokens>\nexport type TotalUsd = ReturnType<typeof measureTotalUsd>\n","/**\n * The pure analyzer. Takes already-read bytes (`SupervisorRunSources`) and\n * returns the report — every metric derivable from a synthetic journal string\n * with no filesystem, no process, and no network. All I/O lives in a reader\n * (`reader.ts` is one).\n *\n * The metric groups live in `analyze-*.ts`; this file only runs them in the\n * order the report's `gaps` list is written.\n */\n\nimport { createAnalysis } from './analyze-context'\nimport { measureDecision } from './analyze-decision'\nimport { buildEconomics, buildPerWorker } from './analyze-economics'\nimport {\n  buildOrchestration,\n  measureConcurrency,\n  measureDelegationDepth,\n  measureRespawns,\n  measureSteers,\n  measureWall,\n} from './analyze-orchestration'\nimport { buildOutcome } from './analyze-outcome'\nimport {\n  buildSpend,\n  collectSpendFacts,\n  measureTotalUsd,\n  measureWorkerTokens,\n} from './analyze-spend'\nimport {\n  SUPERVISOR_RUN_SCHEMA,\n  type SupervisorRunReport,\n  type SupervisorRunSources,\n  unavailable,\n} from './types'\n\n/**\n * Analyze already-read supervisor-run bytes. Pure and synchronous: same bytes\n * in, same report out (modulo `generatedAt`, which `now` pins in tests).\n */\nexport function analyzeSupervisorRunSources(\n  src: SupervisorRunSources,\n  now: () => number = Date.now,\n): SupervisorRunReport {\n  const a = createAnalysis(src)\n  const { gap, gaps, rootId, rootSpawn, journalMissing } = a\n  // Measurements record their gaps as they run, so the order below is the order of `report.gaps`.\n  const wall = measureWall(a)\n  const steerFacts = measureSteers(a)\n  const concurrency = measureConcurrency(a, wall.wallEndAt)\n  const respawns = measureRespawns(a)\n  const steps = {\n    ...wall,\n    ...steerFacts,\n    ...concurrency,\n    ...respawns,\n    delegationDepth: measureDelegationDepth(a),\n  }\n  const orchestration = buildOrchestration(a, steps)\n  const decision = measureDecision(a, steps)\n  const spendFacts = collectSpendFacts(a)\n  const tokens = measureWorkerTokens(a, spendFacts)\n  const totals = measureTotalUsd(a, spendFacts)\n  const spend = buildSpend(a, spendFacts, totals)\n  const perWorker = buildPerWorker(a, spendFacts, totals)\n  const economics = buildEconomics(a, spendFacts, totals, tokens, { decision, spend, perWorker })\n  const outcome = buildOutcome(a, totals)\n  return {\n    schema: SUPERVISOR_RUN_SCHEMA,\n    runRef: src.runRef,\n    instanceId: src.instanceId,\n    arm: src.arm,\n    supervisorId: rootId !== null ? rootId : unavailable(journalMissing),\n    supervisorProfileDigest:\n      rootSpawn?.profileDigest !== null && rootSpawn?.profileDigest !== undefined\n        ? rootSpawn.profileDigest\n        : gap('supervisorProfileDigest', 'root spawned event has no profile digest'),\n    generatedAt: new Date(now()).toISOString(),\n    orchestration,\n    decision,\n    economics,\n    outcome,\n    rootWorkspaceCaptures: src.rootWorkspaceCaptures ?? null,\n    gaps,\n    traceCommand:\n      src.traceCommand ??\n      'npx --yes @tangle-network/traces@latest analyze --harness opencode --cwd <worker-clone-cwd>',\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Optional Runtime run-dir files, read as bytes.\n *\n * `coordination-log.jsonl` is Runtime's JSONL of `{ runId, seq, at, event }`:\n * questions, steers, answers and peer mail between nodes. The `team-shape`\n * analyst reads communication and steer edges from it.\n */\n\nimport { readFile } from 'node:fs/promises'\nimport { join } from 'node:path'\n\nconst COORDINATION_FILE = 'coordination-log.jsonl'\n\n/** File text, or null when the file does not exist. Any other read error throws. */\nexport async function readMaybe(path: string): Promise<string | null> {\n  return readFile(path, 'utf8').catch((error: unknown) => {\n    if (\n      typeof error === 'object' &&\n      error !== null &&\n      'code' in error &&\n      (error as { code: unknown }).code === 'ENOENT'\n    ) {\n      return null\n    }\n    throw error\n  })\n}\n\n/** The run's coordination log, or null when Runtime wrote none. */\nexport function readCoordinationLog(runDir: string): Promise<string | null> {\n  return readMaybe(join(runDir, COORDINATION_FILE))\n}\n","import { nonEmptyString, recordOrNull as record } from './source-facts'\nimport type { SourceLimits } from './types'\n\nfunction spendRecord(value: unknown): Record<string, unknown> | null {\n  const spend = record(value)\n  if (spend === null) return null\n  const tokens = record(spend.tokens)\n  if (\n    tokens === null ||\n    typeof tokens.input !== 'number' ||\n    !Number.isFinite(tokens.input) ||\n    tokens.input < 0 ||\n    typeof tokens.output !== 'number' ||\n    !Number.isFinite(tokens.output) ||\n    tokens.output < 0 ||\n    typeof spend.usd !== 'number' ||\n    !Number.isFinite(spend.usd) ||\n    spend.usd < 0 ||\n    (spend.usdKnown !== undefined && typeof spend.usdKnown !== 'boolean')\n  ) {\n    return null\n  }\n  return spend\n}\n\nexport function sourceLimits(\n  root: string,\n  events: readonly Record<string, unknown>[],\n  workerIds: ReadonlySet<string>,\n): SourceLimits {\n  const rootMeters = events.filter((event) => event.kind === 'metered' && event.id === root)\n  const invalidRootMeters = rootMeters.filter((event) => spendRecord(event.spend) === null)\n  const rootMeterReason =\n    rootMeters.length === 0\n      ? 'Runtime journal has no root metered event'\n      : invalidRootMeters.length > 0\n        ? `${invalidRootMeters.length} root metered event(s) lack complete spend`\n        : null\n  const closes = events.filter(\n    (event) =>\n      workerIds.has(nonEmptyString(event.id) ?? '') &&\n      (event.kind === 'settled' || event.kind === 'cancelled'),\n  )\n  const settledById = new Map<string, Record<string, unknown>[]>()\n  for (const event of closes) {\n    const id = nonEmptyString(event.id)\n    if (id === null) continue\n    const matches = settledById.get(id) ?? []\n    matches.push(event)\n    settledById.set(id, matches)\n  }\n  const incompleteWorkers = [...workerIds].filter((id) => {\n    const terminal = settledById.get(id)\n    return (\n      terminal?.length !== 1 ||\n      terminal[0]?.kind !== 'settled' ||\n      spendRecord(terminal[0]?.spent) === null\n    )\n  })\n  const missingVerdicts = [...workerIds].filter((id) => {\n    const terminal = settledById.get(id)?.[0]\n    if (terminal?.kind !== 'settled') return true\n    const verdict = record(terminal.verdict)\n    return typeof verdict?.valid !== 'boolean'\n  })\n\n  return {\n    managerTokens: rootMeterReason,\n    workerTokens:\n      incompleteWorkers.length === 0\n        ? null\n        : `${incompleteWorkers.length}/${workerIds.size} child invocation(s) lack one settled spend record`,\n    // `usdKnown: false` on ONE record is not a limit of this store: the store priced every\n    // other record, and a limit here discards them all. The analyzer folds the flag per\n    // record instead, and reports a partial total with the unpriced nodes named.\n    spendUsd:\n      rootMeterReason !== null\n        ? rootMeterReason\n        : incompleteWorkers.length > 0\n          ? 'at least one child invocation lacks a settled spend record'\n          : null,\n    workerVerdicts:\n      missingVerdicts.length === 0\n        ? null\n        : `${missingVerdicts.length}/${workerIds.size} child invocation(s) lack a structured validity verdict`,\n    deliverables:\n      workerIds.size === 0\n        ? null\n        : 'Runtime FileRunContext does not retain per-child delivered patches',\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Reader for agent-runtime's file-backed supervision context.\n *\n * Runtime stores multiple recursive trees in one `spawn-journal.jsonl`.\n * Each line is an envelope whose `root` identifies the local tree. A journal\n * can connect a nested tree with `spawned.ownedTreeRoot`. It can also use the\n * spawned child id as the nested root when no owned tree is recorded. Either\n * way the nested tree may repeat its owner's spawn as a parentless marker: the\n * owner's id, not the tree key, identifies it (an owned tree's key is a path\n * such as `root/root:s0`). Descendant spawns must occur in the tree their\n * parent owns. This reader removes a duplicate marker and preserves the other\n * envelopes for the supervisor-run analyzer. Runtime stores profile\n * identity below `identity` and does not emit Eval's role field. This boundary\n * projects those fields without changing Runtime's dialect.\n *\n * Transcripts come from Runtime's own records too: `root-stream.jsonl` is the root's, each\n * worker's turn outputs and native-session receipt are read from the journal, and every blob\n * a record names is checked on disk (see `nodeTranscripts`).\n *\n * The run's terminal record is Runtime's own: `result.json` is the\n * `SupervisedResult` that `supervise()` returned, verbatim, and its `kind`\n * (`winner`, `no-winner`, or whatever a later arm is called) is the status.\n * `failure.json` (`{ runId, pursuitId, at, error: { name, message } }`) is the\n * record Runtime writes when `supervise()` threw before a result landed. Both\n * pass through as bytes; `terminal-record.ts` reads them. The reader does not\n * decide which kinds count: a kind it refuses is a run that recorded its\n * outcome and got reported as having none. The reader does not synthesize status fields. The analyzer names the Runtime\n * record that supplied a status, so status provenance cannot be mislabelled.\n *\n * `usdKnown: false` / `tokensKnown: false` on ONE record is not a limit of this\n * store. The store recorded every other record completely, so the flags travel\n * through to the analyzer per record, which reports the measured nodes and\n * names the unreported ones.\n */\n\nimport { readFile, stat } from 'node:fs/promises'\nimport { join } from 'node:path'\nimport { hashCanonical } from '../ledger-core/canonical'\nimport type { RolloutWorkspaceCapture } from '../rollout/schema'\nimport { readCoordinationLog, readMaybe } from './coordination-reader'\nimport { sourceLimits } from './runtime-source-limits'\nimport { nonEmptyString, recordOrNull as record } from './source-facts'\nimport {\n  NO_SOURCE_LIMITS,\n  type SupervisorRunSources,\n  type WorkerLogSource,\n  type WorkerNativeSession,\n} from './types'\n\nconst JOURNAL_FILE = 'spawn-journal.jsonl'\nconst OBSERVER_FILE = 'observer.jsonl'\nconst ROOT_STREAM_FILE = 'root-stream.jsonl'\nconst BLOB_DIR = 'blobs'\nconst RESULT_FILE = 'result.json'\nconst FAILURE_FILE = 'failure.json'\n\n/**\n * The files only Runtime's durable layer writes. Any one of them marks a\n * Runtime run directory: `supervise()` opens the spawn journal on its first\n * event, and `supervisePursuit` appends the observer's `before` event and, on\n * a throw, the failure record before any spawn.\n *\n * Measured motive (discovery-lab recursive smoke r1, 2026-09-06): the first\n * attempt threw on a caller input error 16 minutes before the corrected attempt\n * opened the spawn journal. At that instant the directory held `observer.jsonl`\n * (2 records) and the failure record and no journal, so a journal-only test\n * routed it to an unrelated reader, which reads neither file, and the recorded\n * throw was reported as no run at all.\n */\nconst RUNTIME_RUN_DIR_MARKERS: readonly string[] = [JOURNAL_FILE, OBSERVER_FILE, FAILURE_FILE]\n\ninterface BeginRecord {\n  readonly root: string\n  readonly at: string\n  readonly line: number\n}\n\ninterface EventRecord {\n  readonly root: string\n  readonly event: Record<string, unknown>\n  readonly line: number\n}\n\ninterface NormalizedRuntimeJournal {\n  readonly root: string\n  readonly startedAt: string\n  readonly journal: string\n  readonly events: readonly Record<string, unknown>[]\n}\n\nfunction profileDigest(event: Record<string, unknown>): string | null {\n  const direct = nonEmptyString(event.profileDigest)\n  if (direct !== null) return direct\n  const identity = record(event.identity)\n  return identity === null ? null : nonEmptyString(identity.profileDigest)\n}\n\nfunction formatError(path: string, line: number, detail: string): Error {\n  return new Error(`${path}:${line}: invalid Runtime spawn journal: ${detail}`)\n}\n\nfunction parseEnvelopeJournal(text: string, path: string): NormalizedRuntimeJournal {\n  const begins: BeginRecord[] = []\n  const events: EventRecord[] = []\n  const begun = new Map<string, BeginRecord>()\n\n  for (const [index, sourceLine] of text.split('\\n').entries()) {\n    const line = index + 1\n    const trimmed = sourceLine.trim()\n    if (trimmed.length === 0) continue\n    let parsed: unknown\n    try {\n      parsed = JSON.parse(trimmed)\n    } catch {\n      throw formatError(path, line, 'line is not JSON')\n    }\n    const envelope = record(parsed)\n    if (envelope === null) throw formatError(path, line, 'line is not an object')\n    const kind = nonEmptyString(envelope.kind)\n    const root = nonEmptyString(envelope.root)\n    if (root === null) throw formatError(path, line, 'root must be a non-empty string')\n\n    if (kind === 'begin') {\n      const at = nonEmptyString(envelope.at)\n      if (at === null || !Number.isFinite(Date.parse(at))) {\n        throw formatError(path, line, 'begin.at must be an ISO timestamp')\n      }\n      if (begun.has(root)) throw formatError(path, line, `tree ${JSON.stringify(root)} began twice`)\n      const begin = { root, at, line }\n      begun.set(root, begin)\n      begins.push(begin)\n      continue\n    }\n\n    if (kind !== 'event') {\n      throw formatError(path, line, \"kind must be 'begin' or 'event'\")\n    }\n    if (!begun.has(root)) {\n      throw formatError(path, line, `event for tree ${JSON.stringify(root)} precedes begin`)\n    }\n    const event = record(envelope.event)\n    if (event === null) throw formatError(path, line, 'event must be an object')\n    if (nonEmptyString(event.kind) === null) {\n      throw formatError(path, line, 'event.kind must be a non-empty string')\n    }\n    events.push({ root, event: { ...event }, line })\n  }\n\n  if (begins.length === 0) throw formatError(path, 1, 'no begin record')\n\n  const parentSpawnsById = new Map<string, EventRecord[]>()\n  const parentSpawnsByOwnedTreeRoot = new Map<string, EventRecord[]>()\n  for (const entry of events) {\n    if (entry.event.kind !== 'spawned') continue\n    const id = nonEmptyString(entry.event.id)\n    if (id === null) continue\n    if (nonEmptyString(entry.event.parent) !== null) {\n      const ownedTreeRoot = nonEmptyString(entry.event.ownedTreeRoot)\n      if (ownedTreeRoot !== null) {\n        const owners = parentSpawnsByOwnedTreeRoot.get(ownedTreeRoot) ?? []\n        owners.push(entry)\n        parentSpawnsByOwnedTreeRoot.set(ownedTreeRoot, owners)\n      } else {\n        const matches = parentSpawnsById.get(id) ?? []\n        matches.push(entry)\n        parentSpawnsById.set(id, matches)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  const nestedRoots = new Set<string>()\n  const nestedParentSpawns = new Map<string, EventRecord>()\n  for (const begin of begins) {\n    const parentSpawns = [\n      ...new Set([\n        ...(parentSpawnsByOwnedTreeRoot.get(begin.root) ?? []),\n        ...(parentSpawnsById.get(begin.root) ?? []),\n      ]),\n    ].filter((entry) => entry.root !== begin.root)\n    if (parentSpawns.length > 1) {\n      throw formatError(\n        path,\n        begin.line,\n        `tree ${JSON.stringify(begin.root)} has ${parentSpawns.length} parent spawns`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (parentSpawns.length === 1) {\n      nestedRoots.add(begin.root)\n      nestedParentSpawns.set(begin.root, parentSpawns[0] as EventRecord)\n    }\n  }\n\n  const topRoots = begins.filter((begin) => !nestedRoots.has(begin.root))\n  if (topRoots.length !== 1) {\n    throw formatError(\n      path,\n      topRoots[0]?.line ?? 1,\n      `expected one top-level tree, found ${topRoots.length}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const top = topRoots[0] as BeginRecord\n\n  // A tree's root marker is a parentless spawn of the node that owns the tree: the top root\n  // itself, or the parent spawn that owns a nested tree. An owned tree's key is a path, so\n  // the owner's id is compared, never the tree key.\n  const ownerIdByTree = new Map<string, string>([[top.root, top.root]])\n  for (const [nestedRoot, parentSpawn] of nestedParentSpawns) {\n    const ownerId = nonEmptyString(parentSpawn.event.id)\n    if (ownerId !== null) ownerIdByTree.set(nestedRoot, ownerId)\n  }\n  const isRootMarker = (entry: EventRecord): boolean =>\n    entry.event.kind === 'spawned' &&\n    (entry.event.parent === undefined || entry.event.parent === null) &&\n    nonEmptyString(entry.event.id) !== null &&\n    entry.event.id === ownerIdByTree.get(entry.root)\n  const rootMarkersByTree = new Map<string, EventRecord[]>()\n  for (const entry of events) {\n    if (!isRootMarker(entry)) continue\n    const markers = rootMarkersByTree.get(entry.root) ?? []\n    markers.push(entry)\n    rootMarkersByTree.set(entry.root, markers)\n  }\n\n  for (const nestedRoot of nestedRoots) {\n    const markers = rootMarkersByTree.get(nestedRoot) ?? []\n    if (markers.length > 1) {\n      throw formatError(\n        path,\n        begun.get(nestedRoot)?.line ?? 1,\n        `nested tree ${JSON.stringify(nestedRoot)} contains ${markers.length} root markers`,\n      )\n    }\n    const parentSpawn = nestedParentSpawns.get(nestedRoot)\n    if (parentSpawn === undefined) {\n      throw formatError(\n        path,\n        begun.get(nestedRoot)?.line ?? 1,\n        `nested tree ${JSON.stringify(nestedRoot)} has no parent spawn`,\n      )\n    }\n    const markerDigest = profileDigest(markers[0]?.event ?? {})\n    const parentDigest = profileDigest(parentSpawn.event)\n    if (markerDigest !== null && parentDigest !== null && markerDigest !== parentDigest) {\n      throw formatError(\n        path,\n        markers[0]?.line ?? 1,\n        `nested tree ${JSON.stringify(nestedRoot)} disagrees with its parent profile digest`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (parentDigest === null && markerDigest !== null) {\n      parentSpawn.event.profileDigest = markerDigest\n    }\n  }\n\n  const ownedTreeBySupervisorId = new Map<string, string>([[top.root, top.root]])\n  for (const [nestedRoot, parentSpawn] of nestedParentSpawns) {\n    const supervisorId = nonEmptyString(parentSpawn.event.id)\n    if (supervisorId === null) continue\n    const priorTree = ownedTreeBySupervisorId.get(supervisorId)\n    if (priorTree !== undefined && priorTree !== nestedRoot) {\n      throw formatError(\n        path,\n        parentSpawn.line,\n        `spawn ${JSON.stringify(supervisorId)} owns both ${JSON.stringify(priorTree)} and ${JSON.stringify(nestedRoot)}`,\n      )\n    }\n    ownedTreeBySupervisorId.set(supervisorId, nestedRoot)\n  }\n  for (const entry of events) {\n    if (entry.event.kind !== 'spawned') continue\n    const parentId = nonEmptyString(entry.event.parent)\n    if (parentId === null) continue\n    const parentTree = ownedTreeBySupervisorId.get(parentId)\n    if (parentTree === undefined) {\n      throw formatError(\n        path,\n        entry.line,\n        `spawn ${JSON.stringify(entry.event.id)} names parent ${JSON.stringify(parentId)}, which owns no journal tree`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (entry.root !== parentTree) {\n      throw formatError(\n        path,\n        entry.line,\n        `spawn ${JSON.stringify(entry.event.id)} is in tree ${JSON.stringify(entry.root)}, but parent ${JSON.stringify(parentId)} owns tree ${JSON.stringify(parentTree)}`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Runtime's recursive atom has no supervisor/worker role field. A tree root\n  // is a supervisor; a child without its own tree is a worker.\n  const supervisorIds = new Set([\n    top.root,\n    ...[...nestedParentSpawns.values()]\n      .map((entry) => nonEmptyString(entry.event.id))\n      .filter((id): id is string => id !== null),\n  ])\n  const normalized = events\n    .filter((entry) => !(nestedRoots.has(entry.root) && isRootMarker(entry)))\n    .map((entry) => {\n      const event = { ...entry.event }\n      if (event.kind === 'spawned') {\n        const digest = profileDigest(event)\n        if (event.profileDigest === undefined && digest !== null) {\n          event.profileDigest = digest\n        }\n        if (event.role === undefined) {\n          event.role = supervisorIds.has(nonEmptyString(event.id) ?? '') ? 'supervisor' : 'worker'\n        }\n      }\n      return { root: entry.root, event }\n    })\n\n  const rootMarkers = rootMarkersByTree.get(top.root) ?? []\n  if (rootMarkers.length !== 1) {\n    throw formatError(\n      path,\n      top.line,\n      `top-level tree ${JSON.stringify(top.root)} must contain one root marker`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  return {\n    root: top.root,\n    startedAt: top.at,\n    // Keep Runtime's event envelope intact. The pure source parser uses the envelope to\n    // distinguish an understood-but-unmodeled Runtime event from an unreadable flat record.\n    journal: `${normalized\n      .map((entry) => JSON.stringify({ kind: 'event', root: entry.root, event: entry.event }))\n      .join('\\n')}\\n`,\n    events: normalized.map((entry) => entry.event),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction parseOptionalRecord(text: string | null, path: string): Record<string, unknown> | null {\n  if (text === null) return null\n  let parsed: unknown\n  try {\n    parsed = JSON.parse(text)\n  } catch {\n    throw new Error(`${path}: invalid JSON`)\n  }\n  const value = record(parsed)\n  if (value === null) throw new Error(`${path}: expected a JSON object`)\n  return value\n}\n\n/**\n * Refuse a `result.json` that belongs to another run. Runtime's result carries\n * its own `tree.root`; a settled record with a different root is a copied or\n * misplaced file, and reading its status onto this journal misreports the run.\n */\nfunction assertResultMatchesJournal(\n  root: string,\n  result: Record<string, unknown> | null,\n  resultPath: string,\n): void {\n  const resultKind = result === null ? null : nonEmptyString(result.kind)\n  if (resultKind === null || result === null) return\n  const resultRoot = nonEmptyString(record(result.tree)?.root)\n  if (resultRoot === null) {\n    throw new Error(`${resultPath}: Runtime ${resultKind} result has no tree.root`)\n  }\n  if (resultRoot !== root) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `${resultPath}: root ${JSON.stringify(resultRoot)} does not match journal root ${JSON.stringify(root)}`,\n    )\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Refuse a `failure.json` that is not a failure record. Runtime writes\n * `{ runId, pursuitId, at, error: { name, message } }`; a document without an\n * `error` object is not one, and reading it as a failure invents a terminal\n * state the run never recorded. The record carries no tree root, so its\n * identity is not checked against the journal.\n */\nfunction assertFailureRecord(failure: Record<string, unknown> | null, failurePath: string): void {\n  if (failure === null) return\n  if (record(failure.error) === null) {\n    throw new Error(`${failurePath}: Runtime failure record has no error object`)\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * The journal's begin stamp in the analyzer's state-document shape. It carries\n * the run identity and start instant only; the terminal status lives in\n * Runtime's own `result.json` / `failure.json`, which the analyzer reads by\n * name, so no synthetic status field is fabricated here.\n */\nfunction runtimeBeginState(root: string, startedAt: string): string {\n  return JSON.stringify({ id: root, startedAt })\n}\n\n/**\n * The file Runtime's `FileResultBlobStore` writes for one content address\n * (`sha256:<hex>` → `blobs/sha256-<hex>.json`), or null for anything that is not one.\n */\nfunction blobFile(runDir: string, ref: unknown): string | null {\n  return typeof ref === 'string' && /^sha256:[0-9a-f]{64}$/u.test(ref)\n    ? join(runDir, BLOB_DIR, `${ref.replace(':', '-')}.json`)\n    : null\n}\n\ntype NodeTranscript = Pick<\n  WorkerLogSource,\n  'transcriptRef' | 'turns' | 'nativeSession' | 'workspaceCaptures'\n>\n\ninterface NodeTranscriptFacts {\n  dispatched: number\n  readonly outputRefs: { value: unknown; turn: boolean }[]\n  readonly outputPositions: Map<string, number>\n  receipt: Record<string, unknown> | null\n}\n\n/** A later receipt replaces an earlier one, except that an absence never replaces an available one. */\nfunction keepReceipt(fact: NodeTranscriptFacts, receipt: Record<string, unknown> | null): void {\n  if (receipt === null) return\n  if (fact.receipt?.status === 'available' && receipt.status !== 'available') return\n  fact.receipt = receipt\n}\n\n/**\n * The files each harness writes its conversation to. A receipt can be available and complete\n * while holding none of them: on the 2026-10-04 trace proof a Pi worker that never wrote a session\n * stored only `.pi/agent/models-store.json`, and this summary counted it as a transcript.\n */\nconst HARNESS_SESSION_FILE: Readonly<Record<string, RegExp>> = {\n  'claude-code': /(^|\\/)\\.claude\\/projects\\/.+\\.jsonl$/u,\n  codex: /(^|\\/)\\.codex\\/sessions\\/.+\\.jsonl$/u,\n  pi: /(^|\\/)\\.pi\\/agent\\/sessions\\/.+\\.jsonl$/u,\n  opencode:\n    /(^|\\/)(\\.local\\/share\\/opencode\\/(opencode\\.db|storage\\/session\\/.+\\.json|export\\/.+\\.json)|\\.opencode\\/sessions\\/.+)$/u,\n}\n\n/** Session files the receipt's transcript blob lists, or undefined when it cannot say. */\nasync function receiptSessionFiles(file: string): Promise<number | undefined> {\n  let descriptor: unknown\n  try {\n    descriptor = JSON.parse(await readFile(file, 'utf8'))\n  } catch {\n    return undefined\n  }\n  const harness = record(descriptor)?.harness\n  const files = record(descriptor)?.files\n  const pattern = typeof harness === 'string' ? HARNESS_SESSION_FILE[harness] : undefined\n  if (pattern === undefined || !Array.isArray(files)) return undefined\n  return files.filter((entry) => {\n    const path = record(entry)?.path\n    return typeof path === 'string' && pattern.test(path)\n  }).length\n}\n\ntype NativeSessionState = 'complete' | 'partial' | 'no-session-file' | 'unavailable' | 'none'\n\nfunction nativeSessionState(session: WorkerNativeSession | null | undefined): NativeSessionState {\n  if (session === null || session === undefined) return 'none'\n  if (session.status !== 'available') return 'unavailable'\n  if (session.coverageComplete === false) return 'partial'\n  if (session.sessionFiles === 0) return 'no-session-file'\n  return 'complete'\n}\n\n/**\n * What this reader can say about harness-session traces. Every spawned worker counts, including\n * one that recorded nothing; the root is reported apart because its receipt lives in result.json\n * (`rootHarnessTranscript`), not on a worker. Runtime records the session identity on each\n * receipt, so the sessions are read per node, not through one command. A receipt counts as a\n * session only when its copy is complete and holds a file the harness writes its conversation to.\n */\nfunction nativeTraceSummary(\n  workers: readonly WorkerLogSource[],\n  root: NodeTranscript | undefined,\n): string {\n  const states = workers.map((worker) => nativeSessionState(worker.nativeSession))\n  const count = (state: NativeSessionState): number => states.filter((s) => s === state).length\n  const rootSession = root?.nativeSession ?? null\n  const rootState = nativeSessionState(rootSession)\n  const rootText =\n    rootSession === null\n      ? 'no receipt'\n      : rootSession.status === 'unavailable'\n        ? `unavailable (${rootSession.reason})`\n        : rootState === 'complete'\n          ? 'complete'\n          : rootState === 'partial'\n            ? 'partial copy'\n            : 'no session file'\n  if (rootSession === null && states.every((state) => state === 'none'))\n    return 'unavailable — no node carries a Runtime harness transcript receipt'\n  const gaps = [\n    count('partial') > 0 ? `${count('partial')} only a partial copy` : null,\n    count('no-session-file') > 0\n      ? `${count('no-session-file')} a receipt with no session file`\n      : null,\n  ].filter((gap): gap is string => gap !== null)\n  return `per node — ${count('complete')} of ${workers.length} workers carry a complete native session receipt (workers[].nativeSession)${gaps.length > 0 ? `; ${gaps.join('; ')}` : ''}; root: ${rootText} (result.json rootHarnessTranscript)`\n}\n\nasync function workspaceCapturesFromOutput(\n  runDir: string,\n  ref: unknown,\n): Promise<RolloutWorkspaceCapture[]> {\n  const outRef = typeof ref === 'string' ? ref : null\n  const blobPath = blobFile(runDir, ref)\n  const missing = (projectionGap: string): RolloutWorkspaceCapture => ({\n    outRef,\n    blobPath,\n    receiptPointer: null,\n    receipt: null,\n    attempts: null,\n    coverageComplete: null,\n    incompleteReason: null,\n    projectionGap,\n  })\n  if (blobPath === null) return [missing('Runtime output has no valid content address')]\n  if (!(await isFile(blobPath))) return [missing('Runtime output blob is missing or not a file')]\n  const raw = await readMaybe(blobPath)\n  if (raw === null) return [missing('Runtime output blob is missing')]\n  let output: unknown\n  try {\n    output = JSON.parse(raw)\n  } catch {\n    return [missing('Runtime output blob is not JSON')]\n  }\n  let addressGap: string | null = null\n  try {\n    if (hashCanonical(output) !== outRef) {\n      addressGap = 'Runtime output content address does not match output blob'\n    }\n  } catch {\n    addressGap = 'Runtime output cannot be canonically hashed'\n  }\n  const project = (rawReceipt: unknown, receiptPointer: string | null): RolloutWorkspaceCapture => {\n    const receipt = record(rawReceipt)\n    if (receipt === null) {\n      return {\n        ...missing(\n          `workspaceCapture receipt is absent or malformed${addressGap === null ? '' : `; ${addressGap}`}`,\n        ),\n        receiptPointer,\n        receipt: rawReceipt,\n      }\n    }\n    const provenance = record(receipt.provenance)\n    const attempts = Array.isArray(provenance?.attempts) ? provenance.attempts : null\n    const coverageComplete =\n      typeof receipt.coverageComplete === 'boolean' ? receipt.coverageComplete : null\n    const incompleteReason =\n      typeof receipt.incompleteReason === 'string' ? receipt.incompleteReason : null\n    const gaps: string[] = []\n    if (addressGap !== null) gaps.push(addressGap)\n    if (coverageComplete === null) gaps.push('workspaceCapture.coverageComplete is absent')\n    if (record(receipt.snapshot) === null) gaps.push('workspaceCapture.snapshot is absent')\n    if (provenance === null) gaps.push('workspaceCapture.provenance is absent')\n    if (attempts === null) gaps.push('workspaceCapture.provenance.attempts is absent')\n    else if (attempts.length === 0 || attempts.some((attempt) => record(attempt) === null)) {\n      gaps.push('workspaceCapture.provenance.attempts is empty or malformed')\n    }\n    return {\n      outRef,\n      blobPath,\n      receiptPointer,\n      receipt,\n      attempts,\n      coverageComplete,\n      incompleteReason,\n      projectionGap: gaps.length > 0 ? gaps.join('; ') : null,\n    }\n  }\n  const result = record(output)\n  const captures: RolloutWorkspaceCapture[] = []\n  // Use the record's field order and each array's order so every retained source stays ordered.\n  for (const key of Object.keys(result ?? {})) {\n    if (key === 'workspaceCapture') {\n      captures.push(project(result?.[key], '/workspaceCapture'))\n    } else if (key === 'workspaceCaptures') {\n      const receipts = result?.[key]\n      if (Array.isArray(receipts) && receipts.length > 0) {\n        for (const [index, receipt] of receipts.entries()) {\n          captures.push(project(receipt, `/workspaceCaptures/${index}`))\n        }\n      } else {\n        captures.push({\n          ...missing(\n            `workspaceCaptures is empty or malformed${addressGap === null ? '' : `; ${addressGap}`}`,\n          ),\n          receiptPointer: '/workspaceCaptures',\n          receipt: receipts ?? null,\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return captures.length > 0 ? captures : [project(null, null)]\n}\n\n/**\n * What Runtime retained of each node's decisions, from its own records.\n *\n * - A turn is one `execution-admitted` event in the `dispatched` phase. Its `execution-result`\n *   names an output blob holding that turn's provider event stream (reasoning, tool calls and\n *   results as the harness reported them). A dispatched turn with no retained output lost its\n *   record, which is how a worker that went down mid-turn shows up.\n * - Every event's `outRef` enters the same collector, once per node and address. Terminal\n *   records retain ordinary and steerable results; they are not counted as dispatched turns.\n * - The terminal event's `harnessTranscript` receipt covers the harness's native session files.\n *   Those are the only record of the harness's own subagents, so an unavailable receipt is a\n *   separate gap from a missing turn, and its reason is Runtime's, verbatim. `settled`,\n *   `cancelled` and `reconciled` all carry one; an available receipt is never replaced by a later\n *   absence. The root has no terminal event, so its receipt is the settle record's\n *   `rootHarnessTranscript`.\n *\n * Blob files are checked on disk: a receipt that names a blob the directory no longer holds is\n * not a retained transcript.\n */\nasync function nodeTranscripts(\n  runDir: string,\n  events: readonly Record<string, unknown>[],\n  nodeIds: ReadonlySet<string>,\n  root?: { readonly id: string; readonly receipt: Record<string, unknown> | null },\n): Promise<Map<string, NodeTranscript>> {\n  const facts = new Map<string, NodeTranscriptFacts>()\n  const entry = (id: string): NodeTranscriptFacts => {\n    let found = facts.get(id)\n    if (found === undefined) {\n      found = { dispatched: 0, outputRefs: [], outputPositions: new Map(), receipt: null }\n      facts.set(id, found)\n    }\n    return found\n  }\n  for (const event of events) {\n    const id = nonEmptyString(event.id)\n    if (id === null || !nodeIds.has(id)) continue\n    if (Object.hasOwn(event, 'outRef')) {\n      const fact = entry(id)\n      const ref = event.outRef\n      const position = typeof ref === 'string' ? fact.outputPositions.get(ref) : undefined\n      if (position !== undefined) {\n        if (event.kind === 'execution-result') fact.outputRefs[position]!.turn = true\n      } else {\n        if (typeof ref === 'string') fact.outputPositions.set(ref, fact.outputRefs.length)\n        fact.outputRefs.push({ value: ref, turn: event.kind === 'execution-result' })\n      }\n    }\n    if (event.kind === 'execution-admitted' && record(event.admission)?.phase === 'dispatched') {\n      entry(id).dispatched += 1\n    } else if (\n      event.kind === 'settled' ||\n      event.kind === 'cancelled' ||\n      event.kind === 'reconciled'\n    ) {\n      // A reconciled node carries its receipt on `reconciled`, which 15 available transcripts of\n      // the 2026-10-04 Discovery archives did and this reader once skipped.\n      keepReceipt(entry(id), record(event.harnessTranscript))\n    }\n  }\n  if (root !== undefined && nodeIds.has(root.id)) keepReceipt(entry(root.id), root.receipt)\n  const out = new Map<string, NodeTranscript>()\n  for (const [id, fact] of facts) {\n    const retained: string[] = []\n    let retainedTurns = 0\n    const workspaceCaptures: RolloutWorkspaceCapture[] = []\n    for (const { value: ref, turn } of fact.outputRefs) {\n      const file = blobFile(runDir, ref)\n      if (file !== null && (await isFile(file))) {\n        retained.push(file)\n        if (turn) retainedTurns += 1\n      }\n      workspaceCaptures.push(...(await workspaceCapturesFromOutput(runDir, ref)))\n    }\n    let nativeSession: WorkerNativeSession | null = null\n    if (fact.receipt !== null) {\n      if (fact.receipt.status === 'available') {\n        const file = blobFile(runDir, fact.receipt.transcriptRef)\n        if (file !== null && (await isFile(file))) {\n          const sessionFiles = await receiptSessionFiles(file)\n          const coverageComplete = fact.receipt.coverageComplete\n          nativeSession = {\n            status: 'available',\n            ref: file,\n            ...(typeof coverageComplete === 'boolean' ? { coverageComplete } : {}),\n            ...(sessionFiles === undefined ? {} : { sessionFiles }),\n          }\n        } else {\n          nativeSession = { status: 'unavailable', reason: 'receipt-blob-missing' }\n        }\n      } else {\n        nativeSession = {\n          status: 'unavailable',\n          reason: nonEmptyString(fact.receipt.reason) ?? 'unavailable',\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    out.set(id, {\n      // The native session is the fuller record; the newest turn output is the next best.\n      transcriptRef:\n        nativeSession?.status === 'available' ? nativeSession.ref : (retained.at(-1) ?? null),\n      turns: { dispatched: fact.dispatched, retained: retainedTurns },\n      nativeSession,\n      workspaceCaptures: workspaceCaptures.length > 0 ? workspaceCaptures : null,\n    })\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nexport interface RuntimeReaderOptions {\n  /**\n   * Throw on a missing spawn journal instead of returning absent-shaped\n   * sources. The default (false) models a journal-less run dir — a\n   * pre-supervise death, a backfilled zombie — as a readable absence.\n   */\n  readonly strict?: boolean\n}\n\n/**\n * Sources for a run dir whose spawn journal does not exist. Mirrors the\n * absent shape the reader returns for a missing store: every\n * journal-dependent metric downstream reads `unavailable`, never 0.\n */\n/**\n * The run identity a terminal record names when no journal exists yet: the\n * settle record's `tree.root`, else the failure record's `runId`. Both are\n * Runtime's own `runId`, so the report names the run the record is about\n * instead of `?`.\n */\nfunction recordedRunId(\n  result: Record<string, unknown> | null,\n  failure: Record<string, unknown> | null,\n): string | null {\n  return nonEmptyString(record(result?.tree)?.root) ?? nonEmptyString(failure?.runId)\n}\n\nfunction absentRuntimeSupervisorRun(\n  runDir: string,\n  resultText: string | null,\n  failureText: string | null,\n  instanceId: string | null,\n): SupervisorRunSources {\n  const reason = `no Runtime spawn journal (${JOURNAL_FILE}) under ${runDir}`\n  return {\n    runRef: runDir,\n    instanceId,\n    arm: null,\n    supRunDir: null,\n    journal: null,\n    journalMissingReason: reason,\n    brainLog: null,\n    brainLogMissingReason:\n      'Runtime FileRunContext records spend but not model completion finish reasons',\n    state: null,\n    progress: null,\n    workers: null,\n    workersMissingReason: reason,\n    result: resultText,\n    failure: failureText,\n    judge: null,\n    judgeSource: null,\n    patch: null,\n    driverLog: null,\n    harnessWorkerTokens: null,\n    harnessMissingReason: 'Runtime FileRunContext has no external worker-token join',\n    limits: NO_SOURCE_LIMITS,\n    rootTranscriptRef: null,\n    rootWorkspaceCaptures: null,\n    traceCommand: 'unavailable — Runtime FileRunContext records no provider-session trace identity',\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Read one agent-runtime `createFileRunContext(dir)` directory.\n *\n * A run dir without `spawn-journal.jsonl` returns the same absent-shaped\n * sources the reader returns for a missing store: `journal` and\n * `workers` null, each with its reason, so every dependent metric reads\n * `unavailable` — never 0 and never a throw. Its `result.json` and\n * `failure.json` are still read, so a run that died before its first spawn\n * reports the failure Runtime recorded. Pass `strict: true` to throw on the\n * missing journal instead. A journal, result, or failure document that exists\n * but cannot be parsed always throws: a corrupt record is a defect, not an\n * absence.\n *\n * The reader translates storage envelopes only. It does not assign research\n * roles, interpret artifacts, or turn process completion into a quality\n * verdict.\n */\nexport async function readRuntimeSupervisorRun(\n  runDir: string,\n  opts: RuntimeReaderOptions = {},\n): Promise<SupervisorRunSources> {\n  const journalPath = join(runDir, JOURNAL_FILE)\n  const rawJournal =\n    opts.strict === true ? await readFile(journalPath, 'utf8') : await readMaybe(journalPath)\n  const resultPath = join(runDir, RESULT_FILE)\n  const failurePath = join(runDir, FAILURE_FILE)\n  const resultText = await readMaybe(resultPath)\n  const failureText = await readMaybe(failurePath)\n  const failure = parseOptionalRecord(failureText, failurePath)\n  assertFailureRecord(failure, failurePath)\n  const result = parseOptionalRecord(resultText, resultPath)\n  if (rawJournal === null) {\n    return absentRuntimeSupervisorRun(\n      runDir,\n      resultText,\n      failureText,\n      recordedRunId(result, failure),\n    )\n  }\n  const normalized = parseEnvelopeJournal(rawJournal, journalPath)\n  assertResultMatchesJournal(normalized.root, result, resultPath)\n\n  const spawns = normalized.events.filter(\n    (event) => event.kind === 'spawned' && nonEmptyString(event.id) !== null,\n  )\n  const childSpawns = spawns.filter((event) => event.id !== normalized.root)\n  const workerIds = new Set(\n    childSpawns.map((event) => nonEmptyString(event.id)).filter((id): id is string => id !== null),\n  )\n  const transcripts = await nodeTranscripts(\n    runDir,\n    normalized.events,\n    new Set([normalized.root, ...workerIds]),\n    { id: normalized.root, receipt: record(result?.rootHarnessTranscript) },\n  )\n  const workers: WorkerLogSource[] = childSpawns.map((event) => {\n    const workerId = nonEmptyString(event.id) as string\n    const transcript = transcripts.get(workerId)\n    return {\n      workerId,\n      label: nonEmptyString(event.label) ?? String(event.id),\n      events: null,\n      inbox: null,\n      patchBytes: null,\n      transcriptRef: transcript?.transcriptRef ?? null,\n      turns: transcript?.turns ?? { dispatched: 0, retained: 0 },\n      nativeSession: transcript?.nativeSession ?? null,\n      workspaceCaptures: transcript?.workspaceCaptures ?? null,\n      patchPath: null,\n    }\n  })\n  // Runtime appends every root provider event to the root stream as it arrives.\n  const rootStream = join(runDir, ROOT_STREAM_FILE)\n\n  return {\n    runRef: runDir,\n    instanceId: normalized.root,\n    arm: null,\n    supRunDir: runDir,\n    journal: normalized.journal,\n    brainLog: null,\n    brainLogMissingReason:\n      'Runtime FileRunContext records spend but not model completion finish reasons',\n    state: runtimeBeginState(normalized.root, normalized.startedAt),\n    progress: null,\n    workers,\n    workersMissingReason: null,\n    result: resultText,\n    failure: failureText,\n    judge: null,\n    judgeSource: null,\n    patch: null,\n    driverLog: null,\n    coordinationLog: await readCoordinationLog(runDir),\n    harnessWorkerTokens: null,\n    harnessMissingReason: 'Runtime FileRunContext has no external worker-token join',\n    limits: sourceLimits(normalized.root, normalized.events, workerIds),\n    rootTranscriptRef: (await isFile(rootStream)) ? rootStream : null,\n    rootWorkspaceCaptures: transcripts.get(normalized.root)?.workspaceCaptures ?? null,\n    traceCommand: nativeTraceSummary(workers, transcripts.get(normalized.root)),\n  }\n}\n\n\n\n/**\n * True when a directory holds any file only Runtime's durable layer writes:\n * the spawn journal, the observer journal, or the failure record. A run that\n * threw before its first spawn has no journal yet and is still a Runtime run.\n */\nexport async function isRuntimeSupervisorRunDir(runDir: string): Promise<boolean> {\n  for (const marker of RUNTIME_RUN_DIR_MARKERS) {\n    if (await isFile(join(runDir, marker))) return true\n  }\n  return false\n}\n\nasync function isFile(path: string): Promise<boolean> {\n  return stat(path)\n    .then((entry) => entry.isFile())\n    .catch((error: unknown) => {\n      if (\n        typeof error === 'object' &&\n        error !== null &&\n        'code' in error &&\n        ((error as { code: unknown }).code === 'ENOENT' ||\n          (error as { code: unknown }).code === 'ENOTDIR')\n      ) {\n        return false\n      }\n      throw error\n    })\n}\n","/**\n * Runtime supervisor-run reader and report writers.\n *\n * Runtime's file-backed supervision context is the only live on-disk contract.\n * Other stores implement `SupervisorRunReader` and feed the same pure analyzer;\n * this module owns path discovery and report output for Runtime runs.\n */\n\nimport { readdir } from 'node:fs/promises'\nimport { join } from 'node:path'\nimport { analyzeSupervisorRunSources } from './analyze'\n\nimport { isRuntimeSupervisorRunDir, readRuntimeSupervisorRun } from './runtime-reader'\nimport type { SupervisorRunReader, SupervisorRunReport, SupervisorRunSources } from './types'\n\n/**\n * Analyze a supervisor run. Accepts a Runtime run directory, any\n * `SupervisorRunReader`, or already-read source bytes — so a\n * caller with its own store never has to touch the filesystem layout.\n */\nexport async function analyzeSupervisorRun(\n  input: string | SupervisorRunReader | SupervisorRunSources,\n): Promise<SupervisorRunReport> {\n  if (typeof input === 'string') {\n    return analyzeSupervisorRunSources(await readRuntimeSupervisorRun(input))\n  }\n  if (isReader(input)) return analyzeSupervisorRunSources(await input.read())\n  return analyzeSupervisorRunSources(input)\n}\n\nfunction isReader(input: SupervisorRunReader | SupervisorRunSources): input is SupervisorRunReader {\n  return typeof (input as SupervisorRunReader).read === 'function'\n}\n\nexport interface WriteSupervisorRunOptions {\n  /** Append the headline block here (the experiment's run log). */\n  readonly appendHeadlineTo?: string\n  /** Also console.log the headline (default true). */\n  readonly echo?: boolean\n  /**\n   * Write `run-report.{json,md}` here instead of into the run dir. Set when\n   * reporting over a run directory that must stay READ-ONLY (a live run, an\n   * archived generation).\n   */\n  readonly reportDir?: string\n}\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n/**\n * Every Runtime supervisor run below `root`.\n *\n * When `root` itself is one run, return no children so callers can distinguish\n * a single report from a parent-directory rollup.\n */\nexport async function findSupervisorRunDirs(root: string): Promise<string[]> {\n  if (await isRuntimeSupervisorRunDir(root)) {\n    return []\n  }\n  const found: string[] = []\n  const walk = async (dir: string, depth: number): Promise<void> => {\n    if (depth > 8) return\n    const entries = await readdir(dir, { withFileTypes: true }).catch(() => [])\n    for (const e of entries) {\n      if (!e.isDirectory()) continue\n      if (e.name === 'node_modules' || e.name === '.git') continue\n      const full = join(dir, e.name)\n      if (await isRuntimeSupervisorRunDir(full)) {\n        found.push(full)\n        continue\n      }\n      await walk(full, depth + 1)\n    }\n  }\n  await walk(root, 0)\n  return found.sort()\n}\n","/**\n * Human-readable renderings of a supervisor-run report. Zero and unavailable\n * render differently on purpose (`0` vs `unavailable — <reason>`), because the\n * two have driven opposite conclusions about the same architecture.\n */\n\nimport { roundDecimal as round } from '../math/round-decimal'\nimport {\n  isUnavailable,\n  type Measured,\n  type ResourceSpendRecord,\n  type SupervisorRunReport,\n  type SupervisorRunRollup,\n  showMeasured,\n  type TerminalFailure,\n} from './types'\n\n/**\n * The block appended to a run log after every run — the answers an operator asks\n * for, in the log tail, with no extra command.\n */\nexport function renderSupervisorRunHeadline(r: SupervisorRunReport): string {\n  const o = r.orchestration\n  const steerNote = isUnavailable(o.steers)\n    ? `unavailable — ${o.steers.unavailable}`\n    : o.steers === 0\n      ? '0 (spawn→wait→respawn only; no mid-task steering)'\n      : `${o.steers} queued / ${showMeasured(o.steersDelivered)} delivered`\n  return [\n    `RUN-REPORT ${r.instanceId ?? '?'} [${r.arm ?? '?'}]`,\n    `  status=${showMeasured(r.outcome.supStatus)} source=${showMeasured(r.outcome.supStatusSource)}` +\n      ` reason=${showMeasured(r.outcome.supReason)} failure=${fmtFailure(r.outcome.failure)}`,\n    `  steers=${steerNote}`,\n    `  waves=${showMeasured(o.waves)} sizes=${isUnavailable(o.waveSizes) ? `unavailable — ${o.waveSizes.unavailable}` : `[${o.waveSizes.join(',')}]`}` +\n      ` workers=${showMeasured(o.workersSpawned)} settled=${showMeasured(o.workersSettled)} cancelled=${showMeasured(o.workersCancelled)}`,\n    `  concurrency max=${showMeasured(o.maxConcurrency)} utilization=${showMeasured(o.workerUtilization)}` +\n      ` idle=${fmtMs(o.idleMs)} (${showMeasured(o.idlePct)}%) wall=${fmtMs(o.supervisorWallMs)}` +\n      `${o.supervisorWallSource === 'journal-span' ? ' (journal-span lower bound)' : ''}`,\n    `  respawns=${showMeasured(o.respawns)} evidence→respawn=${showMeasured(r.decision.observeThenRespawn)}` +\n      ` blind-respawn=${showMeasured(r.decision.respawnWithoutEvidence)} depth=${showMeasured(o.delegationDepth)}`,\n    `  accepted=${showMeasured(r.decision.accepted)} rejected=${showMeasured(r.decision.rejected)} empty-pass=${showMeasured(r.decision.emptyPass)}`,\n    `  brain=$${showMeasured(r.economics.brain.usd)} total=$${showMeasured(r.economics.totalUsd)}` +\n      ` judge.resolved=${showMeasured(r.outcome.judgeResolved)} score=${showMeasured(r.outcome.judgeScore)}` +\n      ` verify=${showMeasured(r.outcome.verifyPass)}`,\n    r.gaps.length > 0 ? `  gaps(${r.gaps.length}): ${r.gaps.join('; ')}` : '  gaps: none',\n  ].join('\\n')\n}\n\n/**\n * The recorded error on one line; `none recorded` and `unavailable` stay\n * distinct, and a throw the run outlived is labeled so it is not read as the\n * outcome of the settled result beside it.\n */\nfunction fmtFailure(v: Measured<TerminalFailure | null>): string {\n  if (isUnavailable(v)) return `unavailable — ${v.unavailable}`\n  if (v === null) return 'none recorded'\n  const name = v.name ?? 'unavailable — record has no error.name'\n  const message = v.message ?? 'unavailable — record has no error.message'\n  const attempt = v.earlierAttempt ? ', earlier attempt' : ''\n  return `${name}: ${message} [${v.source}${v.at === null ? '' : ` at ${v.at}`}${attempt}]`\n}\n\nfunction resourceRows(records: Measured<readonly ResourceSpendRecord[]>): string[] {\n  if (isUnavailable(records)) return [`unavailable — ${records.unavailable}`, '']\n  const out = [\n    'Receipts are source records, not additive totals.',\n    'A false completeness flag means the amount is a recorded subtotal, not complete usage.',\n    '',\n    '| Node | Source | Resource | Unit | Amount | Known |',\n    '|---|---|---|---|---:|---|',\n  ]\n  const cell = (value: string) => value.replace(/\\|/g, '\\\\|').replace(/\\r?\\n/g, ' ')\n  for (const record of records) {\n    const prefix = `| ${cell(record.nodeId ?? 'unavailable')} | ${cell(record.source)} |`\n    if (isUnavailable(record.resources)) {\n      out.push(`${prefix} ${cell(showMeasured(record.resources))} | — | — | — |`)\n    } else if (record.resources.length === 0) {\n      out.push(`${prefix} recorded empty map | — | — | — |`)\n    } else {\n      for (const receipt of record.resources) {\n        out.push(\n          `${prefix} ${cell(showMeasured(receipt.name))} | ${cell(showMeasured(receipt.unit))} | ${cell(showMeasured(receipt.amount))} | ${cell(showMeasured(receipt.known))} |`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  if (!records.length) out.push('| — | — | no spend records | — | — | — |')\n  out.push('')\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction fmtMs(v: Measured<number>): string {\n  if (isUnavailable(v)) return `unavailable — ${v.unavailable}`\n  if (v < 1000) return `${v}ms`\n  const s = v / 1000\n  if (s < 120) return `${round(s, 1)}s`\n  return `${round(s / 60, 1)}min`\n}\n\nexport function renderSupervisorRunMarkdown(r: SupervisorRunReport): string {\n  const o = r.orchestration\n  const d = r.decision\n  const e = r.economics\n  const out: string[] = []\n  out.push(`# Run report — ${r.instanceId ?? 'unknown instance'} [${r.arm ?? 'unknown arm'}]`)\n  out.push('')\n  out.push('```')\n  out.push(renderSupervisorRunHeadline(r))\n  out.push('```')\n  out.push('')\n  out.push(`- Run: \\`${r.runRef}\\``)\n  out.push(`- Supervisor: \\`${showMeasured(r.supervisorId)}\\``)\n  out.push(`- Supervisor profile: \\`${showMeasured(r.supervisorProfileDigest)}\\``)\n  out.push(`- Generated: ${r.generatedAt}`)\n  out.push('')\n\n  out.push('## Orchestration')\n  out.push('')\n  out.push('| Metric | Value |')\n  out.push('|---|---|')\n  out.push(`| Workers spawned | ${showMeasured(o.workersSpawned)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Workers settled | ${showMeasured(o.workersSettled)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Workers cancelled | ${showMeasured(o.workersCancelled)} |`)\n  out.push(`| **Steers (mid-task messages to live workers)** | **${showMeasured(o.steers)}** |`)\n  out.push(`| Steers delivered | ${showMeasured(o.steersDelivered)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Outer-driver \\`supervisor_steer\\` calls | ${showMeasured(o.driverSteerCalls)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Spawn waves | ${showMeasured(o.waves)} |`)\n  out.push(\n    `| Wave sizes | ${isUnavailable(o.waveSizes) ? showMeasured(o.waveSizes) : `[${o.waveSizes.join(', ')}]`} |`,\n  )\n  out.push(`| Max concurrency | ${showMeasured(o.maxConcurrency)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Respawns (after same parent's first settle) | ${showMeasured(o.respawns)} |`)\n  out.push(\n    `| Repeated labels | ${isUnavailable(o.repeatedLabels) ? showMeasured(o.repeatedLabels) : o.repeatedLabels.length === 0 ? 'none' : o.repeatedLabels.join(', ')} |`,\n  )\n  out.push(`| Delegation depth | ${showMeasured(o.delegationDepth)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Time to first spawn | ${fmtMs(o.timeToFirstSpawnMs)} |`)\n  out.push(\n    `| Supervisor wall | ${fmtMs(o.supervisorWallMs)}${isUnavailable(o.supervisorWallSource) ? '' : ` (source: ${o.supervisorWallSource}${o.supervisorWallSource === 'journal-span' ? ', lower bound' : ''})`} |`,\n  )\n  out.push(`| Idle (zero live workers) | ${fmtMs(o.idleMs)} (${showMeasured(o.idlePct)}%) |`)\n  out.push(\n    `| Worker utilization (Σ worker wall ÷ supervisor wall) | ${showMeasured(o.workerUtilization)} |`,\n  )\n  out.push('')\n\n  if (!isUnavailable(o.steersByWorker) && o.steersByWorker.length > 0) {\n    out.push('### Steers per worker')\n    out.push('')\n    out.push('| Worker id | Label | Queued | Delivered |')\n    out.push('|---|---|---:|---:|')\n    for (const s of o.steersByWorker) {\n      out.push(\n        `| ${s.workerId === null ? 'unavailable — worker id absent; label join used' : `\\`${s.workerId}\\``} | \\`${s.worker}\\` | ${s.queued} | ${s.delivered} |`,\n      )\n    }\n    out.push('')\n  } else if (isUnavailable(o.steersByWorker)) {\n    out.push(`### Steers per worker\\n\\nunavailable — ${o.steersByWorker.unavailable}\\n`)\n  }\n\n  out.push('## Decision quality')\n  out.push('')\n  out.push('| Metric | Value |')\n  out.push('|---|---|')\n  out.push(`| Settled by status | ${fmtCounts(d.settledByStatus)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Settled verdicts | ${fmtCounts(d.settledVerdicts)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Accepted (verify green + patch bytes) | ${showMeasured(d.accepted)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Rejected (verify red) | ${showMeasured(d.rejected)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Empty pass (green, no patch) | ${showMeasured(d.emptyPass)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Evidence → respawn sequences | ${showMeasured(d.observeThenRespawn)} |`)\n  out.push(\n    `| Respawn with no same-parent settled evidence in front | ${showMeasured(d.respawnWithoutEvidence)} |`,\n  )\n  out.push(`| Review actions (steers + worker questions) | ${showMeasured(d.reviewActions)} |`)\n  out.push(\n    `| Worker evidence returned | ${isUnavailable(d.workerEvidenceBytes) ? showMeasured(d.workerEvidenceBytes) : `${d.workerEvidenceBytes} bytes`} |`,\n  )\n  out.push('')\n\n  out.push('## Economics')\n  out.push('')\n  out.push('| Role | Tokens in | Tokens out | Cache read | Cache write | USD | Source |')\n  out.push('|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|')\n  out.push(\n    `| brain | ${showMeasured(e.brain.tokensIn)} | ${showMeasured(e.brain.tokensOut)} | ${showMeasured(e.brain.cacheRead)} | ${showMeasured(e.brain.cacheWrite)} | ${showMeasured(e.brain.usd)} | ${e.brain.source} |`,\n  )\n  out.push(\n    `| workers | ${showMeasured(e.workers.tokensIn)} | ${showMeasured(e.workers.tokensOut)} | ${showMeasured(e.workers.cacheRead)} | ${showMeasured(e.workers.cacheWrite)} | ${showMeasured(e.workers.usd)} | ${e.workers.source} |`,\n  )\n  out.push('')\n  if (!isUnavailable(e.brainTruncations) && e.brainTruncations > 0) {\n    out.push(\n      `- **BRAIN OUTPUT TRUNCATED: ${e.brainTruncations} completion(s) hit \\`finish_reason: \"length\"\\`** — the supervisor ` +\n        'acted on a half-written plan. Its output ceiling is too low; see `brain.jsonl` for the per-call `req_max_tokens`.',\n    )\n  } else {\n    out.push(\n      `- Brain completions truncated (finish_reason=length): ${showMeasured(e.brainTruncations)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  out.push(`- Total USD: ${showMeasured(e.totalUsd)} (source: ${e.totalUsdSource})`)\n  out.push(\n    `- Spend measured two ways: journal-derived $${showMeasured(e.spend.journalDerived.usd)} over ${e.spend.journalDerived.records} journal record(s) (execution accounting) · ` +\n      `close-record $${showMeasured(e.spend.closeRecord.usd)} over ${e.spend.closeRecord.records} close record(s) (billing-shaped). Divergence is a signal, not an error.`,\n  )\n  out.push(`- Cost per accepted patch: ${showMeasured(e.costPerAcceptedPatchUsd)}`)\n  if (isUnavailable(e.workerWallMsDistribution)) {\n    out.push(`- Worker wall distribution: unavailable — ${e.workerWallMsDistribution.unavailable}`)\n  } else {\n    const w = e.workerWallMsDistribution\n    out.push(\n      `- Worker wall (n=${w.n}): min ${fmtMs(w.min)} / p50 ${fmtMs(w.p50)} / p90 ${fmtMs(w.p90)} / max ${fmtMs(w.max)} / Σ ${fmtMs(w.sum)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  out.push('')\n  if (!isUnavailable(e.perWorker) && e.perWorker.length > 0) {\n    out.push(\n      '| Worker id | Label | Role | Runtime | Profile digest | Status | Failure | Infra | Wall | Tokens in | Tokens out | Patch bytes | Verify passed | Score |',\n    )\n    out.push('|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|')\n    for (const w of e.perWorker) {\n      out.push(\n        `| ${w.workerId === null ? 'unavailable — worker id absent; label join used' : `\\`${w.workerId}\\``} | \\`${w.worker}\\` | ${w.role ?? 'unavailable — source recorded no role'} | ${w.runtime ?? 'unavailable — source recorded no runtime'} | ${w.profileDigest === null ? 'unavailable — source recorded no profile digest' : `\\`${w.profileDigest}\\``} | ${w.status ?? 'unavailable — no terminal event'} | ${w.failure ?? 'none recorded'} | ${w.infra ?? 'unavailable'} | ${w.wallMs === null ? 'unavailable — no spawn/finish pair' : fmtMs(w.wallMs)} | ${w.tokensIn ?? 'unavailable — store does not attribute tokens per worker'} | ${w.tokensOut ?? 'unavailable — store does not attribute tokens per worker'} | ${w.patchBytes ?? 'unavailable — no worker patch file'} | ${w.passed === null ? 'unavailable — no verdict' : String(w.passed)} | ${w.score ?? 'unavailable — no numeric score'} |`,\n      )\n    }\n    out.push('')\n  }\n\n  if (e.resourceRecords !== undefined) {\n    out.push('## Named resource receipts', '', ...resourceRows(e.resourceRecords))\n  }\n\n  out.push('## Outcome')\n  out.push('')\n  out.push('| Metric | Value |')\n  out.push('|---|---|')\n  out.push(`| Supervisor status | ${showMeasured(r.outcome.supStatus)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Status source | ${showMeasured(r.outcome.supStatusSource)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Terminal reason | ${showMeasured(r.outcome.supReason)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Failure | ${fmtFailure(r.outcome.failure)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Supervisor verdict | ${showMeasured(r.outcome.supVerdict)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Delivered | ${showMeasured(r.outcome.delivered)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Judge resolved | ${showMeasured(r.outcome.judgeResolved)} |`)\n  out.push(`| Judge score | ${showMeasured(r.outcome.judgeScore)} |`)\n  out.push(\n    `| Judge passed / total | ${showMeasured(r.outcome.judgePassed)} / ${showMeasured(r.outcome.judgeTotal)} |`,\n  )\n  out.push(\n    `| Judge source | ${r.outcome.judgeSource ?? 'unavailable — no judge.json and no ledger row'} |`,\n  )\n  out.push(\n    `| Verify gate | pass=${showMeasured(r.outcome.verifyPass)} rc=${showMeasured(r.outcome.verifyRc)} |`,\n  )\n  if (isUnavailable(r.outcome.patch)) {\n    out.push(`| Patch | unavailable — ${r.outcome.patch.unavailable} |`)\n  } else {\n    const p = r.outcome.patch\n    out.push(\n      `| Patch | ${p.files} file(s), +${p.linesAdded}/-${p.linesRemoved}, test files touched: ${p.testFilesTouched.length === 0 ? 'none' : p.testFilesTouched.join(', ')} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  out.push('')\n  out.push('## Gaps')\n  out.push('')\n  if (r.gaps.length === 0) out.push('None — every metric above is backed by a present artifact.')\n  else for (const g of r.gaps) out.push(`- ${g}`)\n  out.push('')\n  out.push(\n    `> Harness-session view of the same run (model calls, stuck loops, tool errors): \\`${r.traceCommand}\\``,\n  )\n  out.push('')\n  return out.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction fmtCounts(v: Measured<Record<string, number>>): string {\n  if (isUnavailable(v)) return showMeasured(v as unknown as Measured<string>)\n  const entries = Object.entries(v)\n  return entries.length === 0 ? 'none' : entries.map(([k, n]) => `${k}=${n}`).join(', ')\n}\n\nexport function renderSupervisorRollupMarkdown(\n  rollup: SupervisorRunRollup,\n  title = 'Round rollup',\n): string {\n  const out: string[] = []\n  out.push(`# ${title}`)\n  out.push('')\n  out.push(`- Cells: ${rollup.cells}`)\n  out.push(\n    `- **Steers across all cells: ${showMeasured(rollup.steersTotal)}** (cells with ≥1 steer: ${showMeasured(rollup.cellsWithSteers)}; cells where the steer count is unavailable: ${rollup.cellsWithUnavailableSteers})`,\n  )\n  out.push(`- Waves per cell (mean): ${showMeasured(rollup.wavesMean)}`)\n  out.push(`- Max concurrency observed: ${showMeasured(rollup.maxConcurrencyMax)}`)\n  out.push(`- Worker utilization (mean): ${showMeasured(rollup.utilizationMean)}`)\n  out.push(`- Idle share (mean): ${showMeasured(rollup.idlePctMean)}%`)\n  out.push(\n    `- Workers spawned: ${showMeasured(rollup.workersSpawnedTotal)} · accepted: ${showMeasured(rollup.acceptedTotal)}`,\n  )\n  out.push(\n    `- Spend: $${showMeasured(rollup.usdTotal)} · judged resolved: ${showMeasured(rollup.resolvedCount)}/${rollup.cells}`,\n  )\n  out.push(\n    `- Spend measured two ways: journal-derived $${showMeasured(rollup.spendUsd.journalDerived.value)} over ${rollup.spendUsd.journalDerived.runs}/${rollup.cells} runs (execution accounting) · ` +\n      `close-record $${showMeasured(rollup.spendUsd.closeRecord.value)} over ${rollup.spendUsd.closeRecord.runs}/${rollup.cells} runs (billing-shaped)`,\n  )\n  out.push('')\n  out.push('| Instance | Arm | Steers | Waves | Utilization | Idle % | Resolved | USD |')\n  out.push('|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|')\n  for (const c of rollup.perCell) {\n    out.push(\n      `| ${c.instanceId ?? '?'} | ${c.arm ?? '?'} | ${showMeasured(c.steers)} | ${showMeasured(c.waves)} | ${showMeasured(c.utilization)} | ${showMeasured(c.idlePct)} | ${showMeasured(c.resolved)} | ${showMeasured(c.usd)} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  out.push('')\n  for (const cell of rollup.perCell) {\n    if (cell.resourceRecords !== undefined) {\n      out.push(\n        `## Resource receipts — ${cell.instanceId ?? '?'} [${cell.arm ?? 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package/dist/rubric-predictive-validity-D3_oI72N.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"rubric-predictive-validity-D3_oI72N.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/meta-eval/outcome-observations.ts","../src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport { makeRng } from '../statistics/internal'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport type OutcomeReduction = 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n\nexport interface CorrelationInterval {\n  lower: number\n  upper: number\n}\n\n/** Reduce observations of one named metric; unrelated keys cannot supply a value. */\nexport function reduceOutcomeMetric(\n  outcomes: readonly DeploymentOutcome[],\n  metric: string,\n  reduction: OutcomeReduction,\n): number | null {\n  const observations = outcomes.flatMap((outcome) => {\n    const value = outcome.metrics[metric]\n    return Number.isFinite(outcome.capturedAt) &&\n      typeof value === 'number' &&\n      Number.isFinite(value)\n      ? [{ capturedAt: outcome.capturedAt, value }]\n      : []\n  })\n  if (observations.length === 0) return null\n  if (reduction === 'mean') {\n    return observations.reduce(\n      (sum, observation) => sum + observation.value / observations.length,\n      0,\n    )\n  }\n  if (reduction === 'max') return Math.max(...observations.map((observation) => observation.value))\n  return observations.reduce((a, b) => (b.capturedAt > a.capturedAt ? b : a)).value\n}\n\nexport function hasVariation(values: readonly number[]): boolean {\n  return values.some((value) => value !== values[0])\n}\n\nexport function correlationSummary(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n  seed: number | undefined,\n): {\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  pearsonCi95: CorrelationInterval | null\n  spearmanCi95: CorrelationInterval | null\n} {\n  const rng = makeRng(seed, xs, ys)\n  const pearsons: number[] = []\n  const spearmans: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx: number[] = []\n    const ry: number[] = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n      const index = Math.floor(rng() * xs.length)\n      rx.push(xs[index]!)\n      ry.push(ys[index]!)\n    }\n    // A constant resample has no estimable correlation, even when both sides agree.\n    if (!hasVariation(rx) || !hasVariation(ry)) continue\n    const pearson = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    const spearman = spearmanR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(pearson)) pearsons.push(pearson)\n    if (Number.isFinite(spearman)) spearmans.push(spearman)\n  }\n  return {\n    pearson: pearsonR(xs, ys),\n    spearman: spearmanR(xs, ys),\n    pearsonCi95: interval(pearsons),\n    spearmanCi95: interval(spearmans),\n  }\n}\n\nexport function validateObservationOptions(\n  reduction: OutcomeReduction,\n  iterations: number,\n  seed: number | undefined,\n): void {\n  if (!['latest', 'mean', 'max'].includes(reduction)) {\n    throw new Error('outcome reduction must be latest, mean, or max')\n  }\n  if (!Number.isSafeInteger(iterations) || iterations < 1) {\n    throw new Error('bootstrap iterations must be a positive safe integer')\n  }\n  if (seed !== undefined && !Number.isFinite(seed)) {\n    throw new Error('bootstrap seed must be finite')\n  }\n}\n\nexport function assertUniqueObservationIds(ids: readonly string[], name: string): void {\n  if (ids.some((id) => typeof id !== 'string' || id.trim().length === 0)) {\n    throw new Error(`${name} must be a nonempty string`)\n  }\n  if (new Set(ids).size !== ids.length) throw new Error(`duplicate ${name} in outcome study`)\n}\n\nexport function validateOutcomeMetricSpecifications(\n  metrics: readonly { id: string; direction: string }[],\n): void {\n  if (!Array.isArray(metrics) || metrics.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('outcomeMetrics must declare at least one outcome metric and direction')\n  }\n  for (const metric of metrics) {\n    if (!metric || typeof metric.id !== 'string' || metric.id.trim().length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('each outcome metric must have a nonempty id and explicit direction')\n    }\n    if (metric.direction !== 'higher-is-better' && metric.direction !== 'lower-is-better') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `outcome metric ${metric.id} must declare higher-is-better or lower-is-better`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n  assertUniqueObservationIds(\n    metrics.map((metric) => metric.id),\n    'outcome metric',\n  )\n}\n\nfunction interval(values: number[]): CorrelationInterval | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  values.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  return {\n    lower: Math.max(-1, values[Math.floor(0.025 * values.length)]!),\n    upper: Math.min(1, values[Math.min(values.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * values.length))]!),\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Join rubric scores to deployment outcomes and measure their association.\n * Higher rubric scores always mean better evaluated behavior.\n * Outcome directions are explicit because success rate and failure rate have opposite meanings.\n * These descriptive associations neither establish causation nor validate a change to rubric weights.\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  assertUniqueObservationIds,\n  type CorrelationInterval,\n  correlationSummary,\n  hasVariation,\n  reduceOutcomeMetric,\n  validateObservationOptions,\n  validateOutcomeMetricSpecifications,\n} from './outcome-observations'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface OutcomeMetricSpec {\n  /** Exact key in DeploymentOutcome.metrics. */\n  id: string\n  direction: 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityInput {\n  /** One record per independent run; rubric scores come from outcome.raw. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  outcomes: OutcomeStore\n  /** Declare desired directions before inspecting associations. */\n  outcomeMetrics: readonly OutcomeMetricSpec[]\n  /** Higher is better for each rubric. Omit to discover finite numeric outcome.raw keys. */\n  rubrics?: readonly string[]\n  /** Minimum joined runs for an estimate; an integer at least 3. Default 8. */\n  minSamples?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples for both correlation intervals. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapResamples?: number\n  /** Omit to derive a reproducible seed from the paired observations. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Reduce finite observations of each named outcome within a run. Default latest. */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricOutcomePair {\n  rubric: string\n  outcome: string\n  outcomeDirection: OutcomeMetricSpec['direction']\n  n: number\n  /** Raw association with the recorded outcome, before direction alignment. */\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  pearsonCi95: CorrelationInterval | null\n  spearmanCi95: CorrelationInterval | null\n  /** Positive values associate higher rubric scores with better outcomes. */\n  alignedPearson: number\n  alignedSpearman: number\n  alignedSpearmanCi95: CorrelationInterval | null\n  /** Descriptive buckets at aligned Spearman +/-0.4; no causal or release authority. */\n  verdict: 'aligned' | 'inverse' | 'weak'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricRanking extends Omit<RubricOutcomePair, 'outcome'> {\n  /** Outcome with the greatest direction-aligned Spearman for this rubric. */\n  bestOutcome: string\n}\n\nexport interface RubricOutcomeExclusion {\n  rubric: string\n  outcome: string\n  outcomeDirection: OutcomeMetricSpec['direction']\n  /** Finite joined observations, including measured zeros. */\n  n: number\n  reason: 'insufficient_samples' | 'constant_rubric' | 'constant_outcome'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityReport {\n  outcomeMetrics: OutcomeMetricSpec[]\n  pairs: RubricOutcomePair[]\n  /** All declared pairs lacking an estimate, with their usable observation count. */\n  excludedPairs: RubricOutcomeExclusion[]\n  /** Exploratory ordering by aligned Spearman; never use outcome selection as confirmatory evidence. */\n  ranked: RubricRanking[]\n  /** Runs contributing at least one finite pair, including pairs below minSamples. */\n  joinedSamples: number\n  /** Runs contributing no finite pair; joinedSamples + skippedRuns equals the input run count. */\n  skippedRuns: number\n  /** Declared rubrics with no finite score, distinct from too few outcomes or constant observations. */\n  rubricsWithoutData: string[]\n}\n\nexport async function rubricPredictiveValidity(\n  input: RubricPredictiveValidityInput,\n): Promise<RubricPredictiveValidityReport> {\n  const minSamples = input.minSamples ?? 8\n  const reduction = input.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const resamples = input.bootstrapResamples ?? 500\n  const seed = input.seed\n  if (!Number.isSafeInteger(minSamples) || minSamples < 3) {\n    throw new Error('minSamples must be a safe integer at least 3')\n  }\n  validateObservationOptions(reduction, resamples, seed)\n  validateOutcomeMetricSpecifications(input.outcomeMetrics)\n  assertUniqueObservationIds(\n    input.runs.map((run) => run.runId),\n    'runId',\n  )\n\n  const outcomeMetrics = input.outcomeMetrics.map((metric) => ({ ...metric }))\n  const runs = input.runs.map((run) => ({ runId: run.runId, scores: { ...run.outcome.raw } }))\n  const declaredRubrics = input.rubrics === undefined ? undefined : [...input.rubrics]\n  if (declaredRubrics !== undefined) assertUniqueObservationIds(declaredRubrics, 'rubric')\n\n  const outcomes = await input.outcomes.list()\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const outcome of outcomes) {\n    const rows = outcomesByRun.get(outcome.runId) ?? []\n    rows.push(outcome)\n    outcomesByRun.set(outcome.runId, rows)\n  }\n\n  const observedRubrics = new Set<string>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    for (const [rubric, value] of Object.entries(run.scores)) {\n      if (typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)) observedRubrics.add(rubric)\n    }\n  }\n  const rubrics = declaredRubrics ?? [...observedRubrics]\n  const buckets = rubrics.flatMap((rubric) =>\n    outcomeMetrics.map((outcome) => ({\n      rubric,\n      outcome,\n      xs: [] as number[],\n      ys: [] as number[],\n    })),\n  )\n\n  let joined = 0\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const rows = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId) ?? []\n    let joinedThisRun = false\n    for (const bucket of buckets) {\n      const x = run.scores[bucket.rubric]\n      if (typeof x !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n      const y = reduceOutcomeMetric(rows, bucket.outcome.id, reduction)\n      if (y === null) continue\n      bucket.xs.push(x)\n      bucket.ys.push(y)\n      joinedThisRun = true\n    }\n    if (joinedThisRun) joined++\n  }\n\n  const pairs: RubricOutcomePair[] = []\n  const excludedPairs: RubricOutcomeExclusion[] = []\n  for (const bucket of buckets) {\n    const identity = {\n      rubric: bucket.rubric,\n      outcome: bucket.outcome.id,\n      outcomeDirection: bucket.outcome.direction,\n      n: bucket.xs.length,\n    }\n    const reason =\n      bucket.xs.length < minSamples\n        ? 'insufficient_samples'\n        : !hasVariation(bucket.xs)\n          ? 'constant_rubric'\n          : !hasVariation(bucket.ys)\n            ? 'constant_outcome'\n            : null\n    if (reason !== null) {\n      excludedPairs.push({ ...identity, reason })\n      continue\n    }\n    const summary = correlationSummary(bucket.xs, bucket.ys, resamples, seed)\n    const sign = bucket.outcome.direction === 'higher-is-better' ? 1 : -1\n    const alignedSpearman = summary.spearman * sign\n    const alignedSpearmanCi95 =\n      summary.spearmanCi95 === null\n        ? null\n        : sign === 1\n          ? summary.spearmanCi95\n          : { lower: -summary.spearmanCi95.upper, upper: -summary.spearmanCi95.lower }\n    pairs.push({\n      ...identity,\n      ...summary,\n      alignedPearson: summary.pearson * sign,\n      alignedSpearman,\n      alignedSpearmanCi95,\n      verdict: alignedSpearman >= 0.4 ? 'aligned' : alignedSpearman <= -0.4 ? 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package/dist/rubric-predictive-validity-noY7uE03.d.ts.map

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package/dist/statistical-heldout-3z3I-kJN.d.ts.map

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