@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.220.1 → 0.221.0

package/dist/outcome-observations-FLmRpgYa.js

@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+import { i as makeRng } from "./internal-BTK91Bqt.js";
+import { a as spearmanR, r as pearsonR } from "./descriptive-CVNy48rR.js";
+//#region src/meta-eval/outcome-observations.ts
+/** Reduce observations of one named metric; unrelated keys cannot supply a value. */
+function reduceOutcomeMetric(outcomes, metric, reduction) {
+	const observations = outcomes.flatMap((outcome) => {
+		const value = outcome.metrics[metric];
+		return Number.isFinite(outcome.capturedAt) && typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value) ? [{
+			capturedAt: outcome.capturedAt,
+			value
+		}] : [];
+	});
+	if (observations.length === 0) return null;
+	if (reduction === "mean") return observations.reduce((sum, observation) => sum + observation.value / observations.length, 0);
+	if (reduction === "max") return Math.max(...observations.map((observation) => observation.value));
+	return observations.reduce((a, b) => b.capturedAt > a.capturedAt ? b : a).value;
+}
+function hasVariation(values) {
+	return values.some((value) => value !== values[0]);
+}
+function correlationSummary(xs, ys, iterations, seed) {
+	const rng = makeRng(seed, xs, ys);
+	const pearsons = [];
+	const spearmans = [];
+	for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {
+		const rx = [];
+		const ry = [];
+		for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {
+			const index = Math.floor(rng() * xs.length);
+			rx.push(xs[index]);
+			ry.push(ys[index]);
+		}
+		if (!hasVariation(rx) || !hasVariation(ry)) continue;
+		const pearson = pearsonR(rx, ry);
+		const spearman = spearmanR(rx, ry);
+		if (Number.isFinite(pearson)) pearsons.push(pearson);
+		if (Number.isFinite(spearman)) spearmans.push(spearman);
+	}
+	return {
+		pearson: pearsonR(xs, ys),
+		spearman: spearmanR(xs, ys),
+		pearsonCi95: interval(pearsons),
+		spearmanCi95: interval(spearmans)
+	};
+}
+function validateObservationOptions(reduction, iterations, seed) {
+	if (![
+		"latest",
+		"mean",
+		"max"
+	].includes(reduction)) throw new Error("outcome reduction must be latest, mean, or max");
+	if (!Number.isSafeInteger(iterations) || iterations < 1) throw new Error("bootstrap iterations must be a positive safe integer");
+	if (seed !== void 0 && !Number.isFinite(seed)) throw new Error("bootstrap seed must be finite");
+}
+function assertUniqueObservationIds(ids, name) {
+	if (ids.some((id) => typeof id !== "string" || id.trim().length === 0)) throw new Error(`${name} must be a nonempty string`);
+	if (new Set(ids).size !== ids.length) throw new Error(`duplicate ${name} in outcome study`);
+}
+function validateOutcomeMetricSpecifications(metrics) {
+	if (!Array.isArray(metrics) || metrics.length === 0) throw new Error("outcomeMetrics must declare at least one outcome metric and direction");
+	for (const metric of metrics) {
+		if (!metric || typeof metric.id !== "string" || metric.id.trim().length === 0) throw new Error("each outcome metric must have a nonempty id and explicit direction");
+		if (metric.direction !== "higher-is-better" && metric.direction !== "lower-is-better") throw new Error(`outcome metric ${metric.id} must declare higher-is-better or lower-is-better`);
+	}
+	assertUniqueObservationIds(metrics.map((metric) => metric.id), "outcome metric");
+}
+function interval(values) {
+	if (values.length === 0) return null;
+	values.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+	return {
+		lower: Math.max(-1, values[Math.floor(.025 * values.length)]),
+		upper: Math.min(1, values[Math.min(values.length - 1, Math.floor(.975 * values.length))])
+	};
+}
+//#endregion
+export { validateObservationOptions as a, reduceOutcomeMetric as i, correlationSummary as n, validateOutcomeMetricSpecifications as o, hasVariation as r, assertUniqueObservationIds as t };
+
+//# sourceMappingURL=outcome-observations-FLmRpgYa.js.map

package/dist/outcome-observations-FLmRpgYa.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"outcome-observations-FLmRpgYa.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/meta-eval/outcome-observations.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport { makeRng } from '../statistics/internal'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport type OutcomeReduction = 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n\nexport interface CorrelationInterval {\n  lower: number\n  upper: number\n}\n\n/** Reduce observations of one named metric; unrelated keys cannot supply a value. */\nexport function reduceOutcomeMetric(\n  outcomes: readonly DeploymentOutcome[],\n  metric: string,\n  reduction: OutcomeReduction,\n): number | null {\n  const observations = outcomes.flatMap((outcome) => {\n    const value = outcome.metrics[metric]\n    return Number.isFinite(outcome.capturedAt) &&\n      typeof value === 'number' &&\n      Number.isFinite(value)\n      ? [{ capturedAt: outcome.capturedAt, value }]\n      : []\n  })\n  if (observations.length === 0) return null\n  if (reduction === 'mean') {\n    return observations.reduce(\n      (sum, observation) => sum + observation.value / observations.length,\n      0,\n    )\n  }\n  if (reduction === 'max') return Math.max(...observations.map((observation) => observation.value))\n  return observations.reduce((a, b) => (b.capturedAt > a.capturedAt ? b : a)).value\n}\n\nexport function hasVariation(values: readonly number[]): boolean {\n  return values.some((value) => value !== values[0])\n}\n\nexport function correlationSummary(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n  seed: number | undefined,\n): {\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  pearsonCi95: CorrelationInterval | null\n  spearmanCi95: CorrelationInterval | null\n} {\n  const rng = makeRng(seed, xs, ys)\n  const pearsons: number[] = []\n  const spearmans: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx: number[] = []\n    const ry: number[] = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n      const index = Math.floor(rng() * xs.length)\n      rx.push(xs[index]!)\n      ry.push(ys[index]!)\n    }\n    // A constant resample has no estimable correlation, even when both sides agree.\n    if (!hasVariation(rx) || !hasVariation(ry)) continue\n    const pearson = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    const spearman = spearmanR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(pearson)) pearsons.push(pearson)\n    if (Number.isFinite(spearman)) spearmans.push(spearman)\n  }\n  return {\n    pearson: pearsonR(xs, ys),\n    spearman: spearmanR(xs, ys),\n    pearsonCi95: interval(pearsons),\n    spearmanCi95: interval(spearmans),\n  }\n}\n\nexport function validateObservationOptions(\n  reduction: OutcomeReduction,\n  iterations: number,\n  seed: number | undefined,\n): void {\n  if (!['latest', 'mean', 'max'].includes(reduction)) {\n    throw new Error('outcome reduction must be latest, mean, or max')\n  }\n  if (!Number.isSafeInteger(iterations) || iterations < 1) {\n    throw new Error('bootstrap iterations must be a positive safe integer')\n  }\n  if (seed !== undefined && !Number.isFinite(seed)) {\n    throw new Error('bootstrap seed must be finite')\n  }\n}\n\nexport function assertUniqueObservationIds(ids: readonly string[], name: string): void {\n  if (ids.some((id) => typeof id !== 'string' || id.trim().length === 0)) {\n    throw new Error(`${name} must be a nonempty string`)\n  }\n  if (new Set(ids).size !== ids.length) throw new Error(`duplicate ${name} in outcome study`)\n}\n\nexport function validateOutcomeMetricSpecifications(\n  metrics: readonly { id: string; direction: string }[],\n): void {\n  if (!Array.isArray(metrics) || metrics.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('outcomeMetrics must declare at least one outcome metric and direction')\n  }\n  for (const metric of metrics) {\n    if (!metric || typeof metric.id !== 'string' || metric.id.trim().length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('each outcome metric must have a nonempty id and explicit direction')\n    }\n    if (metric.direction !== 'higher-is-better' && metric.direction !== 'lower-is-better') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `outcome metric ${metric.id} must declare higher-is-better or lower-is-better`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n  assertUniqueObservationIds(\n    metrics.map((metric) => metric.id),\n    'outcome metric',\n  )\n}\n\nfunction interval(values: number[]): CorrelationInterval | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  values.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  return {\n    lower: Math.max(-1, values[Math.floor(0.025 * values.length)]!),\n    upper: Math.min(1, values[Math.min(values.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * values.length))]!),\n  }\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;;AAYA,SAAgB,oBACd,UACA,QACA,WACe;CACf,MAAM,eAAe,SAAS,SAAS,YAAY;EACjD,MAAM,QAAQ,QAAQ,QAAQ;EAC9B,OAAO,OAAO,SAAS,QAAQ,UAAU,KACvC,OAAO,UAAU,YACjB,OAAO,SAAS,KAAK,IACnB,CAAC;GAAE,YAAY,QAAQ;GAAY;EAAM,CAAC,IAC1C,CAAC;CACP,CAAC;CACD,IAAI,aAAa,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;CACtC,IAAI,cAAc,QAChB,OAAO,aAAa,QACjB,KAAK,gBAAgB,MAAM,YAAY,QAAQ,aAAa,QAC7D,CACF;CAEF,IAAI,cAAc,OAAO,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,aAAa,KAAK,gBAAgB,YAAY,KAAK,CAAC;CAChG,OAAO,aAAa,QAAQ,GAAG,MAAO,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,aAAa,IAAI,CAAE,CAAC,CAAC;AAC9E;AAEA,SAAgB,aAAa,QAAoC;CAC/D,OAAO,OAAO,MAAM,UAAU,UAAU,OAAO,EAAE;AACnD;AAEA,SAAgB,mBACd,IACA,IACA,YACA,MAMA;CACA,MAAM,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM,IAAI,EAAE;CAChC,MAAM,WAAqB,CAAC;CAC5B,MAAM,YAAsB,CAAC;CAC7B,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,YAAY,KAAK;EACnC,MAAM,KAAe,CAAC;EACtB,MAAM,KAAe,CAAC;EACtB,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,QAAQ,KAAK;GAClC,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,MAAM;GAC1C,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG,MAAO;GAClB,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG,MAAO;EACpB;EAEA,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,aAAa,EAAE,GAAG;EAC5C,MAAM,UAAU,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE;EAC/B,MAAM,WAAW,UAAU,IAAI,EAAE;EACjC,IAAI,OAAO,SAAS,OAAO,GAAG,SAAS,KAAK,OAAO;EACnD,IAAI,OAAO,SAAS,QAAQ,GAAG,UAAU,KAAK,QAAQ;CACxD;CACA,OAAO;EACL,SAAS,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE;EACxB,UAAU,UAAU,IAAI,EAAE;EAC1B,aAAa,SAAS,QAAQ;EAC9B,cAAc,SAAS,SAAS;CAClC;AACF;AAEA,SAAgB,2BACd,WACA,YACA,MACM;CACN,IAAI,CAAC;EAAC;EAAU;EAAQ;CAAK,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,SAAS,GAC/C,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,gDAAgD;CAElE,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,cAAc,UAAU,KAAK,aAAa,GACpD,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,sDAAsD;CAExE,IAAI,SAAS,KAAA,KAAa,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,IAAI,GAC7C,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,+BAA+B;AAEnD;AAEA,SAAgB,2BAA2B,KAAwB,MAAoB;CACrF,IAAI,IAAI,MAAM,OAAO,OAAO,OAAO,YAAY,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,GACnE,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,GAAG,KAAK,2BAA2B;CAErD,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,IAAI,QAAQ,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,aAAa,KAAK,kBAAkB;AAC5F;AAEA,SAAgB,oCACd,SACM;CACN,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,QAAQ,OAAO,KAAK,QAAQ,WAAW,GAChD,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,uEAAuE;CAEzF,KAAK,MAAM,UAAU,SAAS;EAC5B,IAAI,CAAC,UAAU,OAAO,OAAO,OAAO,YAAY,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,GAC1E,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,oEAAoE;EAEtF,IAAI,OAAO,cAAc,sBAAsB,OAAO,cAAc,mBAClE,MAAM,IAAI,MACR,kBAAkB,OAAO,GAAG,kDAC9B;CAEJ;CACA,2BACE,QAAQ,KAAK,WAAW,OAAO,EAAE,GACjC,gBACF;AACF;AAEA,SAAS,SAAS,QAA8C;CAC9D,IAAI,OAAO,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;CAChC,OAAO,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,CAAC;CAC3B,OAAO;EACL,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,OAAO,KAAK,MAAM,OAAQ,OAAO,MAAM,EAAG;EAC9D,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,OAAO,SAAS,GAAG,KAAK,MAAM,OAAQ,OAAO,MAAM,CAAC,EAAG;CAC5F;AACF"}

package/dist/{paired-arms-Ct4LTKc1.js → paired-arms-B2ttLc0_.js}

@@ -1,7 +1,105 @@
 import { s as ValidationError } from "./errors-BcOs5MKW.js";
+import { a as findingTreatmentSchema } from "./finding-composition-8n0fFgVI.js";
 import { c as lnGamma, i as makeRng, o as symmetricTwoSampleSeed, r as binomialSignTwoSided, t as assertFiniteSample } from "./internal-BTK91Bqt.js";
 import { r as pairedRiskDifference, t as mcnemar } from "./paired-binary-B_nejA44.js";
 import { i as pairedBootstrap } from "./mean-BbA_JCzW.js";
+//#region src/arm-populations.ts
+const keyOf = (row) => JSON.stringify([
+	row.arm,
+	row.pairKey,
+	row.repKey ?? null
+]);
+function checkIdentity(row) {
+	for (const value of [
+		row.arm,
+		row.pairKey,
+		...row.repKey === void 0 ? [] : [row.repKey]
+	]) if (typeof value !== "string" || !value.trim()) throw new TypeError("Arm assignments require nonempty identities");
+	if (row.treatment !== void 0) {
+		if (!Array.isArray(row.treatment)) throw new TypeError("Arm treatment must be an array");
+		for (const value of row.treatment) findingTreatmentSchema.parse(value);
+		if (new Set(row.treatment.map((t) => t.id)).size !== row.treatment.length) throw new TypeError("Duplicate arm treatment id");
+	}
+}
+function checkObservation(row) {
+	checkIdentity(row);
+	if (row.pass != null && typeof row.pass !== "boolean") throw new TypeError("Invalid arm pass value");
+	if (row.formation !== void 0) {
+		if (row.formation === null || typeof row.formation !== "object") throw new TypeError("Invalid formation verdict");
+		if (row.formation.formed !== null && typeof row.formation.formed !== "boolean") throw new TypeError("Invalid formation state");
+		if (row.formation.reason !== void 0 && typeof row.formation.reason !== "string") throw new TypeError("Invalid formation reason");
+	}
+	for (const value of Object.values(row.metrics ?? {})) if (value !== null && !Number.isFinite(value)) throw new TypeError("Non-finite arm metric");
+}
+/** One roster join serves comparison and both denominators; no outcomes are inferred from formation. */
+function prepareArmPopulations(observations, assignments, options) {
+	const arms = [options.baselineArm, options.treatmentArm];
+	const roster = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	for (const entry of assignments) {
+		if (!arms.includes(entry.arm)) continue;
+		checkIdentity(entry);
+		const key = keyOf(entry);
+		if (roster.has(key)) throw new TypeError("Duplicate arm assignment");
+		roster.set(key, structuredClone(entry));
+	}
+	for (const arm of arms) if (![...roster.values()].some((r) => r.arm === arm)) throw new TypeError(`No assignment roster for arm '${arm}'`);
+	const actual = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	for (const row of observations) {
+		if (!arms.includes(row.arm)) continue;
+		checkObservation(row);
+		const key = keyOf(row);
+		if (!roster.has(key)) throw new TypeError("Observed seed is outside the assignment roster");
+		if (actual.has(key)) throw new TypeError("Duplicate arm observation");
+		actual.set(key, row);
+	}
+	const ordered = [...roster.entries()].sort(([a], [b]) => a < b ? -1 : a > b ? 1 : 0);
+	const rows = ordered.map(([key, entry]) => actual.get(key) ?? entry);
+	const metricNames = options.metricNames ?? [...new Set([...actual.values()].flatMap((r) => Object.keys(r.metrics ?? {})))].sort();
+	return {
+		rows,
+		readings: arms.map((arm) => {
+			const declared = ordered.filter(([, r]) => r.arm === arm);
+			const asAssigned = declared.map(([key]) => actual.get(key));
+			const asFormed = asAssigned.filter((row) => row?.formation?.formed === true);
+			return {
+				arm,
+				assignments: declared.map(([, r]) => r),
+				missingObservations: asAssigned.filter((r) => r === void 0).length,
+				formation: {
+					formed: asFormed.length,
+					notFormed: asAssigned.filter((r) => r?.formation?.formed === false).length,
+					unknown: asAssigned.filter((r) => r?.formation?.formed == null).length
+				},
+				asAssigned: summarize(asAssigned, metricNames),
+				asFormed: summarize(asFormed, metricNames)
+			};
+		})
+	};
+}
+function summarize(rows, names) {
+	const passed = rows.filter((r) => r?.pass === true).length;
+	const failed = rows.filter((r) => r?.pass === false).length;
+	const missingOutcomes = rows.length - passed - failed;
+	const metrics = Object.fromEntries(names.map((name) => {
+		const values = rows.map((r) => r?.metrics?.[name]).filter((x) => x != null);
+		const sum = values.length ? values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) : null;
+		return [name, {
+			n: values.length,
+			missing: rows.length - values.length,
+			sum,
+			mean: sum === null ? null : sum / values.length
+		}];
+	}));
+	return {
+		n: rows.length,
+		passed,
+		failed,
+		missingOutcomes,
+		passRate: rows.length && !missingOutcomes ? passed / rows.length : null,
+		metrics
+	};
+}
+//#endregion
 //#region src/math/normal.ts
 /**
 * Standard normal cumulative distribution using Abramowitz and Stegun 7.1.26.
@@ -406,32 +504,6 @@ function exactSignedRankP(doubledRanks, doubledDeviation) {
 //#endregion
 //#region src/paired-arms.ts
 /**
-* Matched-pair arm comparison — "did the treatment arm beat the baseline arm
-* on the SAME work items?"
-*
-* An arm A/B over run records is only trustworthy when it is PAIRED: the same
-* task/scenario/seed evaluated under both arms, compared item-by-item, so
-* inter-item difficulty variance cancels instead of masquerading as an arm
-* effect. This module owns the two error-prone steps every consumer otherwise
-* hand-rolls:
-*
-*   1. Pairing — matching rows across arms by `pairKey` (and by `repKey`
-*      within multi-rep items), with leftovers REPORTED rather than silently
-*      dropped (a silently unbalanced pairing biases every paired statistic
-*      downstream). Pairing never keys on outcome content: matching reps by
-*      their outcomes deflates discordant-pair counts and makes McNemar
-*      anti-conservative, so reps pair only by (`pairKey`, `repKey`) identity.
-*   2. Composition — feeding the matched pairs to the correct paired
-*      estimators that already live in `statistics`: `mcnemar` +
-*      `pairedRiskDifference` for pass/fail, `pairedBootstrap` +
-*      `wilcoxonSignedRank` for continuous metrics. No statistic is
-*      re-implemented here.
-*
-* The row shape is deliberately structural — callers project a `RunRecord`
-* (or any record) into `{ pairKey, arm, pass?, metrics? }`. Arm names are
-* caller-supplied parameters; the module ships no domain literal.
-*/
-/**
 * Match rows across two arms into (baseline, treatment) pairs by `pairKey`.
 *
 * A `pairKey` with at most one row per arm pairs directly, no `repKey`
@@ -540,19 +612,23 @@ function indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm) {
 * Correctness uses only the pairs where both sides carry `pass` (`mcnemar.n`
 * is that subset's size); each metric uses only the pairs where both sides
 * carry a finite value for it, with the remainder counted in `nMissing`.
-* Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout.
+* Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout. With an assignment roster, pairing
+* covers declared seed identities; missing observations remain identity-only rows
+* and never contribute fabricated outcomes or metrics. Per-arm summaries report
+* every assignment and the explicitly formed subset separately.
 *
 * Fail-loud: inherits {@link pairArms}'s unknown-arm throw, and throws on a
 * non-finite metric value — silently treating corrupt telemetry as "metric
 * absent" would misreport it as missing coverage.
 */
 function comparePairedArms(rows, opts) {
-	const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(rows, opts);
+	const populations = opts.assignments === void 0 ? void 0 : prepareArmPopulations(rows, opts.assignments, opts);
+	const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(populations?.rows ?? rows, opts);
 	let correctness = null;
 	const baselinePass = [];
 	const treatmentPass = [];
 	for (const pair of pairs) {
-		if (pair.baseline.pass === void 0 || pair.treatment.pass === void 0) continue;
+		if (pair.baseline.pass == null || pair.treatment.pass == null) continue;
 		baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0);
 		treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0);
 	}
@@ -591,6 +667,7 @@ function comparePairedArms(rows, opts) {
 		};
 	});
 	return {
+		...populations ? { armPopulations: populations.readings } : {},
 		nPairs: pairs.length,
 		nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,
 		nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,
@@ -657,11 +734,11 @@ function validateRunRecordArmRows(rows, arm) {
 }
 function metricValue(row, name) {
 	const v = row.metrics?.[name];
-	if (v === void 0) return void 0;
+	if (v == null) return void 0;
 	if (!Number.isFinite(v)) throw new ValidationError(`comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`);
 	return v;
 }
 //#endregion
 export { wilcoxonSignedRank as a, mannWhitneyU as i, pairArms as n, normalCdf as o, pairRunRecords as r, comparePairedArms as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=paired-arms-Ct4LTKc1.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=paired-arms-B2ttLc0_.js.map

package/dist/paired-arms-B2ttLc0_.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"paired-arms-B2ttLc0_.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/arm-populations.ts","../src/math/normal.ts","../src/statistics/rank-tests.ts","../src/paired-arms.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { FindingTreatment } from './analyst/finding-composition'\nimport { findingTreatmentSchema } from './analyst/finding-composition'\nimport type { PairedArmRow } from './paired-arms'\n\n/** Expected seed identities must be supplied independently of completed observations. */\nexport interface ArmAssignment {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey?: string\n  arm: string\n  treatment?: FindingTreatment[]\n}\nexport interface ArmPopulationSummary {\n  n: number\n  passed: number\n  failed: number\n  missingOutcomes: number\n  /** Unknown unless every unit's outcome was observed; missing is never a failed check. */\n  passRate: number | null\n  metrics: Record<string, { n: number; missing: number; sum: number | null; mean: number | null }>\n}\nexport interface ArmPopulationReading {\n  arm: string\n  assignments: ArmAssignment[]\n  missingObservations: number\n  formation: { formed: number; notFormed: number; unknown: number }\n  asAssigned: ArmPopulationSummary\n  asFormed: ArmPopulationSummary\n}\n\nconst keyOf = (row: ArmAssignment): string =>\n  JSON.stringify([row.arm, row.pairKey, row.repKey ?? null])\nfunction checkIdentity(row: ArmAssignment): void {\n  for (const value of [row.arm, row.pairKey, ...(row.repKey === undefined ? [] : [row.repKey])]) {\n    if (typeof value !== 'string' || !value.trim())\n      throw new TypeError('Arm assignments require nonempty identities')\n  }\n  if (row.treatment !== undefined) {\n    if (!Array.isArray(row.treatment)) throw new TypeError('Arm treatment must be an array')\n    for (const value of row.treatment) findingTreatmentSchema.parse(value)\n    if (new Set(row.treatment.map((t) => t.id)).size !== row.treatment.length)\n      throw new TypeError('Duplicate arm treatment id')\n  }\n}\nfunction checkObservation(row: PairedArmRow): void {\n  checkIdentity(row)\n  if (row.pass != null && typeof row.pass !== 'boolean')\n    throw new TypeError('Invalid arm pass value')\n  if (row.formation !== undefined) {\n    if (row.formation === null || typeof row.formation !== 'object')\n      throw new TypeError('Invalid formation verdict')\n    if (row.formation.formed !== null && typeof row.formation.formed !== 'boolean')\n      throw new TypeError('Invalid formation state')\n    if (row.formation.reason !== undefined && typeof row.formation.reason !== 'string')\n      throw new TypeError('Invalid formation reason')\n  }\n  for (const value of Object.values(row.metrics ?? {})) {\n    if (value !== null && !Number.isFinite(value)) throw new TypeError('Non-finite arm metric')\n  }\n}\n\n/** One roster join serves comparison and both denominators; no outcomes are inferred from formation. */\nexport function prepareArmPopulations(\n  observations: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  assignments: readonly ArmAssignment[],\n  options: { baselineArm: string; treatmentArm: string; metricNames?: string[] },\n): { rows: PairedArmRow[]; readings: ArmPopulationReading[] } {\n  const arms = [options.baselineArm, options.treatmentArm]\n  const roster = new Map<string, ArmAssignment>()\n  for (const entry of assignments) {\n    if (!arms.includes(entry.arm)) continue\n    checkIdentity(entry)\n    const key = keyOf(entry)\n    if (roster.has(key)) throw new TypeError('Duplicate arm assignment')\n    roster.set(key, structuredClone(entry))\n  }\n  for (const arm of arms)\n    if (![...roster.values()].some((r) => r.arm === arm))\n      throw new TypeError(`No assignment roster for arm '${arm}'`)\n  const actual = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of observations) {\n    if (!arms.includes(row.arm)) continue\n    checkObservation(row)\n    const key = keyOf(row)\n    if (!roster.has(key)) throw new TypeError('Observed seed is outside the assignment roster')\n    if (actual.has(key)) throw new TypeError('Duplicate arm observation')\n    actual.set(key, row)\n  }\n  const ordered = [...roster.entries()].sort(([a], [b]) => (a < b ? -1 : a > b ? 1 : 0))\n  // Placeholder rows carry identities only. They never manufacture pass, metrics or formation.\n  const rows = ordered.map(([key, entry]) => actual.get(key) ?? entry)\n  const metricNames =\n    options.metricNames ??\n    [...new Set([...actual.values()].flatMap((r) => Object.keys(r.metrics ?? {})))].sort()\n  const readings = arms.map((arm) => {\n    const declared = ordered.filter(([, r]) => r.arm === arm)\n    const asAssigned = declared.map(([key]) => actual.get(key))\n    const asFormed = asAssigned.filter(\n      (row): row is PairedArmRow => row?.formation?.formed === true,\n    )\n    return {\n      arm,\n      assignments: declared.map(([, r]) => r),\n      missingObservations: asAssigned.filter((r) => r === undefined).length,\n      formation: {\n        formed: asFormed.length,\n        notFormed: asAssigned.filter((r) => r?.formation?.formed === false).length,\n        unknown: asAssigned.filter((r) => r?.formation?.formed == null).length,\n      },\n      asAssigned: summarize(asAssigned, metricNames),\n      asFormed: summarize(asFormed, metricNames),\n    }\n  })\n  return { rows, readings }\n}\n\nfunction summarize(\n  rows: readonly (PairedArmRow | undefined)[],\n  names: readonly string[],\n): ArmPopulationSummary {\n  const passed = rows.filter((r) => r?.pass === true).length\n  const failed = rows.filter((r) => r?.pass === false).length\n  const missingOutcomes = rows.length - passed - failed\n  const metrics = Object.fromEntries(\n    names.map((name) => {\n      const values = rows.map((r) => r?.metrics?.[name]).filter((x): x is number => x != null)\n      const sum = values.length ? values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) : null\n      return [\n        name,\n        {\n          n: values.length,\n          missing: rows.length - values.length,\n          sum,\n          mean: sum === null ? null : sum / values.length,\n        },\n      ]\n    }),\n  )\n  return {\n    n: rows.length,\n    passed,\n    failed,\n    missingOutcomes,\n    passRate: rows.length && !missingOutcomes ? passed / rows.length : null,\n    metrics,\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Standard normal cumulative distribution using Abramowitz and Stegun 7.1.26.\n *\n * The approximation is evaluated as erf(x / sqrt(2)). Computing the negative\n * tail from the complementary term avoids cancellation when x is far below 0.\n * The maximum absolute CDF error is approximately 7.5e-8.\n */\nexport function normalCdf(x: number): number {\n  if (x === 0) return 0.5\n\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n\n  const scaled = Math.abs(x) / Math.SQRT2\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * scaled)\n  const complement = ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-scaled * scaled)\n\n  return x < 0 ? complement / 2 : 1 - complement / 2\n}\n","import { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { normalCdf } from '../math/normal'\nimport { lnGamma } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport {\n  assertFiniteSample,\n  binomialSignTwoSided,\n  makeRng,\n  symmetricTwoSampleSeed,\n} from './internal'\n\n// ── Rank tests: exact by default ─────────────────────────────────────\n//\n// At 3–10 repetitions per arm the binding constraint on a rank test is\n// combinatorial, not numerical. Three versus three admits only 20 splits, so\n// the attainable two-sided p-grid starts at 0.1000 and α = 0.05 is out of\n// reach at that design; a normal approximation reports 0.0495, a p-value that\n// describes no attainable outcome. No better approximation fixes this — adding\n// the tie correction moves `[0,0,0]` versus `[1,1,1]` from 0.0495 to 0.0469,\n// further from its exact 0.1000, not closer.\n//\n// So both null distributions are enumerated exactly inside bounded state and\n// work budgets, by convolution over the observed midranks (identical to\n// enumerating every split / sign pattern, and cheaper), which conditions on the\n// realised tie pattern for free. Above those budgets the default is a seeded\n// Monte Carlo permutation. The asymptotic path is never chosen automatically,\n// and asking for it inside the exact-feasible range throws.\n//\n// Every result carries `method` and `pFloor` so a downstream gate can SEE the\n// discreteness rather than infer it: a gate handed data whose `pFloor` exceeds\n// its alpha is underpowered by construction, which is a true statement about\n// the experiment, not a false one about the effect.\n\n/** How a rank test's p-value was actually computed. */\nexport type RankTestMethod = 'exact' | 'permutation' | 'asymptotic'\n\n/**\n * What the caller asks for. `'auto'` selects `'exact'` inside the enumeration\n * threshold and `'permutation'` above it, and never selects `'asymptotic'`.\n */\nexport type RankTestMethodRequest = 'auto' | 'exact' | 'asymptotic'\n\nexport interface RankTestOptions {\n  /** Default `'auto'`. `'asymptotic'` inside the exact-feasible range throws. */\n  method?: RankTestMethodRequest\n  /** Resamples on the Monte Carlo permutation path. Default 100000. */\n  permutations?: number\n  /** Seed for the permutation path. Omitted ⇒ derived from the data itself, so\n   *  the result is reproducible either way. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/** Maximum dynamic-programming cells used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nconst MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES = 8_192\n/** Maximum inner-loop transitions used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nconst MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK = 250_000\n/** Non-zero differences up to which the signed-rank null is enumerated exactly. */\nconst WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N = 20\n/** Resamples used when a rank test falls back to Monte Carlo permutation. */\nconst DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS = 100_000\n\nexport interface MannWhitneyResult {\n  /** `min(U_a, U_b)` — the conventional reported statistic. */\n  u: number\n  /** U for sample `a`. Carries the direction of the effect, which `u` discards. */\n  uA: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. `p` can never be below it. */\n  pFloor: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U — two independent samples, no distributional assumption.\n *\n * Exact conditional (permutation) p by default when the dynamic program fits\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES} cells and\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK} transitions, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above those limits. This keeps imbalanced designs such as 1+24\n * exact without admitting expensive balanced designs merely because they have\n * the same total size. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available. Empty input yields `p = 1,\n * pFloor = 1` — no design, no attainable evidence.\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(\n  a: number[],\n  b: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): MannWhitneyResult {\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'a', a)\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'b', b)\n\n  const n1 = a.length\n  const n2 = b.length\n  if (n1 === 0 || n2 === 0) return { u: 0, uA: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1 }\n\n  const total = n1 + n2\n  const combined = [\n    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: true })),\n    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: false })),\n  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(combined.map((entry) => entry.v))\n  let rankSumA = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < total; k++) {\n    if (combined[k]!.fromA) rankSumA += midranks[k]!\n  }\n\n  const uA = rankSumA - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n  const u = Math.min(uA, n1 * n2 - uA)\n  // Midranks are integers or halves, so doubling makes the null convolution\n  // integral. U is centred on n₁n₂/2, hence a doubled centre of n₁n₂.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * uA - n1 * n2)\n  const selectedN = Math.min(n1, n2)\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const exactCost = exactTwoSampleCost(doubled, selectedN)\n\n  const designFloor = exactTwoSampleFloor(doubled, selectedN)\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'mannWhitneyU',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n1=${n1}, n2=${n2}`,\n    exactCost.states <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES &&\n      exactCost.work <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK,\n    designFloor,\n    `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES.toLocaleString('en-US')} states and ` +\n      `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK.toLocaleString('en-US')} transitions`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactTwoSampleP(doubled, selectedN, otherN, doubledDeviation)\n    return { u, uA, p, method, pFloor }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    return {\n      u,\n      uA,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, twoSampleSigma(n1, n2, total, tieTerm)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('mannWhitneyU', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = opts.seed === undefined ? makeRng(symmetricTwoSampleSeed(a, b)) : makeRng(opts.seed)\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  const pool = [...doubled]\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledRankSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < selectedN; k++) {\n      const pick = k + Math.floor(rng() * (total - k))\n      const swapped = pool[pick]!\n      pool[pick] = pool[k]!\n      pool[k] = swapped\n      doubledRankSum += swapped\n    }\n    if (\n      Math.abs(doubledRankSum - selectedN * (selectedN + 1) - selectedN * otherN) >=\n      doubledDeviation\n    ) {\n      atLeastAsExtreme++\n    }\n  }\n  const pFloor = Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor)\n  return {\n    u,\n    uA,\n    p: Math.max((1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1), pFloor),\n    method,\n    pFloor,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  /** W⁺, the rank sum of the positive differences. (scipy reports\n   *  `min(W⁺, W⁻)`; compare statistics only after converting.) */\n  w: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. */\n  pFloor: number\n  /** Non-zero differences — zero differences are dropped and carry no rank. */\n  nNonZero: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank — paired, no distributional assumption on the deltas.\n *\n * Exact conditional (sign-flip) p by default at `n ≤\n * {@link WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N}` non-zero differences, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above it. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available.\n *\n * `n` is the count of NON-ZERO differences: exact ties are dropped before\n * ranking, so a run of tied pairs shrinks the design and raises `pFloor`.\n * All-tied input yields `p = 1, pFloor = 1` — no attainable evidence, which\n * `pFloor` states rather than leaving `p = 1` to be read as a measured null.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'before', before)\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'after', after)\n\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n  const n = diffs.length\n  if (n === 0) return { w: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1, nNonZero: 0 }\n\n  // When every non-zero difference has the same magnitude, the signed-rank\n  // null reduces exactly to a binomial sign distribution. This is the common\n  // pass/fail shape ({-1, 0, +1}); recognizing it avoids a 100k-draw\n  // permutation for every repeated gate evaluation while preserving the exact\n  // p-value and attainable floor. Explicit method requests still retain their\n  // documented behavior.\n  const abs = Math.abs(diffs[0]!)\n  const allEqualAbs = diffs.every((d) => Math.abs(d) === abs)\n  if ((opts.method === undefined || opts.method === 'auto') && allEqualAbs) {\n    const positive = diffs.filter((d) => d > 0).length\n    const negative = n - positive\n    return {\n      w: (positive * (n + 1)) / 2,\n      p: binomialSignTwoSided(positive, negative),\n      method: 'exact',\n      pFloor: Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n)),\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const order = diffs.map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), i })).sort((x, y) => x.abs - y.abs)\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(order.map((entry) => entry.abs))\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) ranks[order[k]!.i] = midranks[k]!\n\n  let wPlus = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n  // Midranks are integers or halves; doubling makes the convolution integral.\n  // Σ midranks = n(n+1)/2 whatever the tie pattern, so E[W⁺] = n(n+1)/4 and\n  // the doubled centre is n(n+1)/2.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * wPlus - (n * (n + 1)) / 2)\n\n  const designFloor = Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n))\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'wilcoxonSignedRank',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n=${n} non-zero differences`,\n    n <= WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N,\n    designFloor,\n    `${WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N} non-zero differences`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactSignedRankP(doubled, doubledDeviation)\n    return { w: wPlus, p, method, pFloor, nNonZero: n }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24 - tieTerm / 48\n    return {\n      w: wPlus,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, Math.sqrt(variance)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('wilcoxonSignedRank', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed, before, after)\n  const doubledCentre = (n * (n + 1)) / 2\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledWPlus = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (rng() < 0.5) doubledWPlus += doubled[k]!\n    if (Math.abs(doubledWPlus - doubledCentre) >= doubledDeviation) atLeastAsExtreme++\n  }\n  return {\n    w: wPlus,\n    p: (1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1),\n    method,\n    pFloor: Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor),\n    nNonZero: n,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Average ranks over an ASCENDING-sorted array, plus `Σ(t³ − t)` over tie\n * groups of size `t` — the correction term both asymptotic rank-test variances\n * need.\n */\nfunction midranksWithTieTerm(sorted: readonly number[]): { midranks: number[]; tieTerm: number } {\n  const midranks = new Array<number>(sorted.length)\n  let tieTerm = 0\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < sorted.length) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < sorted.length && sorted[j] === sorted[i]) j++\n    const average = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) midranks[k] = average\n    const groupSize = j - i\n    if (groupSize > 1) tieTerm += groupSize ** 3 - groupSize\n    i = j\n  }\n  return { midranks, tieTerm }\n}\n\nfunction selectRankTestMethod(\n  fn: string,\n  request: RankTestMethodRequest,\n  design: string,\n  exactFeasible: boolean,\n  designFloor: number,\n  threshold: string,\n): RankTestMethod {\n  if (request === 'auto') return exactFeasible ? 'exact' : 'permutation'\n  if (request === 'exact') {\n    if (exactFeasible) return 'exact'\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'exact' is out of range at ${design} — enumeration is bounded by ` +\n        `${threshold}. Use 'auto' for the seeded Monte Carlo permutation, which converges ` +\n        'to the same answer.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (exactFeasible) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'asymptotic' is refused at ${design} — the exact p-grid at this design ` +\n        `starts at ${formatProbability(designFloor)}, so an asymptotic p below it describes no ` +\n        `attainable outcome. Use method 'exact' (the default) or add repetitions past ` +\n        `${threshold}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 'asymptotic'\n}\n\nfunction resolvePermutations(fn: string, permutations: number | undefined): number {\n  if (permutations === undefined) return DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS\n  if (!Number.isInteger(permutations) || permutations < 1) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`${fn}: permutations must be a positive integer, got ${permutations}`)\n  }\n  return permutations\n}\n\n/** Two-sided normal-approximation tail with the continuity correction. */\nfunction asymptoticTwoSidedP(deviation: number, sigma: number): number {\n  if (!(sigma > 0)) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.max(0, deviation - 0.5) / sigma)))\n}\n\n/** SD of U under the permutation null, corrected for the realised ties. The\n *  tie term reduces (N+1) and reaches it exactly when every value is tied, so\n *  the variance floors at 0 rather than going negative. */\nfunction twoSampleSigma(n1: number, n2: number, total: number, tieTerm: number): number {\n  if (total < 2) return 0\n  const variance = ((n1 * n2) / 12) * (total + 1 - tieTerm / (total * (total - 1)))\n  return Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, variance))\n}\n\nfunction logChoose(n: number, k: number): number {\n  return lnGamma(n + 1) - lnGamma(k + 1) - lnGamma(n - k + 1)\n}\n\nfunction formatProbability(value: number): string {\n  return value >= 1e-4 || value === 0 ? value.toFixed(4) : value.toExponential(3)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact DP allocation and loop count for this observed rank vector.\n *\n * The smaller arm is sufficient because selecting its complement produces the\n * same two-sided U deviation while using fewer rows in the state table.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleCost(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n): { states: number; work: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  let work = 0\n  for (let placed = 0; placed < doubledRanks.length; placed++) {\n    work += Math.min(selectedN, placed + 1) * (maxSum - doubledRanks[placed]! + 1)\n  }\n  return {\n    states: (selectedN + 1) * (maxSum + 1),\n    work,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Smallest attainable two-sided p under the observed ties.\n *\n * Only subsets with the minimum or maximum rank sum can attain the largest\n * deviation. Their multiplicity is the number of ways to choose within the\n * tie group at each boundary, so this calculation is exact without allocating\n * the full null distribution.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleFloor(doubledRanks: readonly number[], selectedN: number): number {\n  const total = doubledRanks.length\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const minimumSum = doubledRanks.slice(0, selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const maximumSum = doubledRanks.slice(total - selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  if (minimumSum === maximumSum) return 1\n\n  const centre = selectedN * (selectedN + 1) + selectedN * otherN\n  const minimumDeviation = Math.abs(minimumSum - centre)\n  const maximumDeviation = Math.abs(maximumSum - centre)\n  const totalLogWays = logChoose(total, selectedN)\n  const minimumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'minimum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n  const maximumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'maximum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n\n  if (minimumDeviation > maximumDeviation) return minimumMass\n  if (maximumDeviation > minimumDeviation) return maximumMass\n  return Math.min(1, minimumMass + maximumMass)\n}\n\nfunction logExtremeSubsetWays(\n  sortedRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n  side: 'minimum' | 'maximum',\n): number {\n  const boundaryIndex = side === 'minimum' ? selectedN - 1 : sortedRanks.length - selectedN\n  const boundary = sortedRanks[boundaryIndex]!\n  let first = boundaryIndex\n  let afterLast = boundaryIndex + 1\n  while (first > 0 && sortedRanks[first - 1] === boundary) first--\n  while (afterLast < sortedRanks.length && sortedRanks[afterLast] === boundary) afterLast++\n\n  const tieSize = afterLast - first\n  const fixed = side === 'minimum' ? first : sortedRanks.length - afterLast\n  return logChoose(tieSize, selectedN - fixed)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the two-sample rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled midranks into the null distribution of group\n * a's rank sum over every `C(n₁+n₂, n₁)` split — identical to enumerating the\n * splits, but `O(N·n₁·ΣR)` instead of `O(C(N,n₁)·n₁n₂)`. Conditioning on the\n * realised multiset makes the tie handling exact rather than a correction.\n *\n * The null is symmetric about `n₁n₂/2` (negating every value maps `U → n₁n₂ −\n * U` and permutes the split set onto itself), so the two-sided p is the mass\n * at least as far from the centre as the observation.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  n1: number,\n  n2: number,\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  // ways[k][s] = number of size-k subsets whose doubled rank sum is s.\n  const ways: Float64Array[] = Array.from({ length: n1 + 1 }, () => new Float64Array(width))\n  ways[0]![0] = 1\n  let placed = 0\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    for (let k = Math.min(n1, placed + 1); k >= 1; k--) {\n      const from = ways[k - 1]!\n      const into = ways[k]!\n      for (let sum = maxSum - rank; sum >= 0; sum--) {\n        const count = from[sum]!\n        if (count !== 0) into[sum + rank]! += count\n      }\n    }\n    placed++\n  }\n\n  // U = rankSum − n₁(n₁+1)/2, so doubled U = s − n₁(n₁+1), and the doubled\n  // centre 2·(n₁n₂/2) is n₁n₂.\n  const shift = n1 * (n1 + 1) + n1 * n2\n  const chosen = ways[n1]!\n  let totalWays = 0\n  let extremeWays = 0\n  let tailWays = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const count = chosen[sum]!\n    if (count === 0) continue\n    totalWays += count\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - shift)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tailWays += count\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extremeWays = count\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extremeWays += count\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: tailWays / totalWays, pFloor: extremeWays / totalWays }\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the paired signed-rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled absolute midranks over all `2ⁿ` sign\n * assignments in `O(n·ΣR)`. Probabilities rather than counts keep `2ⁿ` off the\n * arithmetic. The null is symmetric about `n(n+1)/4`.\n */\nfunction exactSignedRankP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  let mass = new Float64Array(width)\n  mass[0] = 1\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    const next = new Float64Array(width)\n    for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n      const probability = mass[sum]!\n      if (probability === 0) continue\n      next[sum]! += probability * 0.5\n      next[sum + rank]! += probability * 0.5\n    }\n    mass = next\n  }\n\n  const centre = maxSum / 2\n  let tail = 0\n  let extreme = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const probability = mass[sum]!\n    if (probability === 0) continue\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - centre)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tail += probability\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extreme = probability\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extreme += probability\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: Math.min(1, tail), pFloor: Math.min(1, extreme) }\n}\n","/**\n * Matched-pair arm comparison — \"did the treatment arm beat the baseline arm\n * on the SAME work items?\"\n *\n * An arm A/B over run records is only trustworthy when it is PAIRED: the same\n * task/scenario/seed evaluated under both arms, compared item-by-item, so\n * inter-item difficulty variance cancels instead of masquerading as an arm\n * effect. This module owns the two error-prone steps every consumer otherwise\n * hand-rolls:\n *\n *   1. Pairing — matching rows across arms by `pairKey` (and by `repKey`\n *      within multi-rep items), with leftovers REPORTED rather than silently\n *      dropped (a silently unbalanced pairing biases every paired statistic\n *      downstream). Pairing never keys on outcome content: matching reps by\n *      their outcomes deflates discordant-pair counts and makes McNemar\n *      anti-conservative, so reps pair only by (`pairKey`, `repKey`) identity.\n *   2. Composition — feeding the matched pairs to the correct paired\n *      estimators that already live in `statistics`: `mcnemar` +\n *      `pairedRiskDifference` for pass/fail, `pairedBootstrap` +\n *      `wilcoxonSignedRank` for continuous metrics. No statistic is\n *      re-implemented here.\n *\n * The row shape is deliberately structural — callers project a `RunRecord`\n * (or any record) into `{ pairKey, arm, pass?, metrics? }`. Arm names are\n * caller-supplied parameters; the module ships no domain literal.\n */\n\nimport type { FindingTreatment } from './analyst/finding-composition'\nimport {\n  type ArmAssignment,\n  type ArmPopulationReading,\n  prepareArmPopulations,\n} from './arm-populations'\nimport { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport type { McNemarResult, PairedBootstrapOptions, PairedBootstrapResult } from './statistics'\nimport {\n  mcnemar,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedRiskDifference,\n  type RiskDifferenceResult,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n/** One arm observation of one work item. Structural on purpose: callers\n *  project their own record type (e.g. a `RunRecord`) into this shape. */\nexport interface PairedArmRow {\n  /** Matching key — rows sharing a `pairKey` across both arms form pairs\n   *  (typically the task/scenario/seed identity). */\n  pairKey: string\n  /** Rep identity within a `pairKey` (e.g. a seed or rep number). Required on\n   *  every row of a `pairKey` that has more than one rep in either arm; reps\n   *  then pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`) match, never on outcome\n   *  content. Optional when each arm has at most one rep of the item. */\n  repKey?: string\n  /** Arm label this row was produced under. */\n  arm: string\n  /** Binary outcome; omit or null when no pass/fail outcome was observed. */\n  pass?: boolean | null\n  /** Actual formation verdict from the execution owner; absence/null stays unknown. */\n  formation?: { formed: boolean | null; reason?: string }\n  /** Recorded treatment provenance; assigned bundles live on the independent roster. */\n  treatment?: FindingTreatment[]\n  /** Named finite measurements; null/absent readings are unknown, not zero. */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number | null>\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Arm treated as the control side of every pair. */\n  baselineArm: string\n  /** Arm treated as the treatment side of every pair. */\n  treatmentArm: string\n}\n\n/** One matched (baseline, treatment) observation of the same work item. */\nexport interface MatchedPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  /** 0-based position of this pair within its `pairKey`, ordered by sorted\n   *  `repKey` (always 0 for a single-rep item). The rep identity itself is on\n   *  the rows (`baseline.repKey` / `treatment.repKey`). */\n  repIndex: number\n  baseline: PairedArmRow\n  treatment: PairedArmRow\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsResult {\n  /** Matched pairs, ordered by (`pairKey`, `repIndex`). */\n  pairs: MatchedPair[]\n  /** Baseline rows left without a treatment counterpart — reported, never\n   *  silently dropped. */\n  unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[]\n  /** Treatment rows left without a baseline counterpart. */\n  unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Match rows across two arms into (baseline, treatment) pairs by `pairKey`.\n *\n * A `pairKey` with at most one row per arm pairs directly, no `repKey`\n * needed. A `pairKey` with multiple reps in either arm requires `repKey` on\n * every one of its rows, and reps pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`)\n * match — pairing is keyed purely on row identity, never on outcome content\n * (outcome-keyed matching deflates discordant counts and biases McNemar), and\n * is therefore independent of input order. Reps whose `repKey` has no\n * counterpart in the other arm, and items present in only one arm, land in\n * the unpaired lists — reported, never truncated.\n *\n * Fail-loud: throws when either named arm has zero rows (an unknown arm\n * name would otherwise read as \"everything unpaired\"), when the two arm\n * names are equal, when a multi-rep `pairKey` has a row without `repKey`, or\n * when a (`pairKey`, arm) group repeats a `repKey` (the match would be\n * ambiguous).\n */\nexport function pairArms(rows: readonly PairedArmRow[], opts: PairArmsOptions): PairArmsResult {\n  const { baselineArm, treatmentArm } = opts\n  if (baselineArm === treatmentArm) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `pairArms: baselineArm and treatmentArm are both '${baselineArm}' — an arm cannot be compared to itself`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  // arm → pairKey → rows\n  const byArm = new Map<string, Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>>()\n  const armsSeen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    armsSeen.add(row.arm)\n    if (row.arm !== baselineArm && row.arm !== treatmentArm) continue\n    const byKey = byArm.get(row.arm) ?? new Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>()\n    const group = byKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n    byArm.set(row.arm, byKey)\n  }\n\n  for (const arm of [baselineArm, treatmentArm]) {\n    if (!byArm.has(arm)) {\n      const seen = [...armsSeen].sort().join(', ') || '<none>'\n      throw new ValidationError(`pairArms: no rows for arm '${arm}' (arms present: ${seen})`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  const baselineByKey = byArm.get(baselineArm)!\n  const treatmentByKey = byArm.get(treatmentArm)!\n\n  const allKeys = [...new Set([...baselineByKey.keys(), ...treatmentByKey.keys()])].sort()\n  const pairs: MatchedPair[] = []\n  const unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  const unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  for (const pairKey of allKeys) {\n    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n    const t = treatmentByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n\n    if (b.length <= 1 && t.length <= 1) {\n      if (b.length === 1 && t.length === 1) {\n        const baseline = b[0]!\n        const treatment = t[0]!\n        if (baseline.repKey !== undefined || treatment.repKey !== undefined) {\n          if (\n            baseline.repKey === undefined ||\n            treatment.repKey === undefined ||\n            baseline.repKey !== treatment.repKey\n          ) {\n            unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n            unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n            continue\n          }\n        }\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: 0, baseline, treatment })\n      } else {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(...b)\n        unpairedTreatment.push(...t)\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n\n    const bByRep = indexByRepKey(b, pairKey, baselineArm)\n    const tByRep = indexByRepKey(t, pairKey, treatmentArm)\n    const repKeys = [...new Set([...bByRep.keys(), ...tByRep.keys()])].sort()\n    let repIndex = 0\n    for (const repKey of repKeys) {\n      const baseline = bByRep.get(repKey)\n      const treatment = tByRep.get(repKey)\n      if (baseline !== undefined && treatment !== undefined) {\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: repIndex++, baseline, treatment })\n      } else if (baseline !== undefined) {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n      } else if (treatment !== undefined) {\n        unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment }\n}\n\n/** Index a multi-rep (pairKey, arm) group by `repKey`, enforcing that every\n *  row carries one and that no repKey repeats within the group. */\nfunction indexByRepKey(\n  group: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  pairKey: string,\n  arm: string,\n): Map<string, PairedArmRow> {\n  const byRep = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of group) {\n    if (row.repKey === undefined) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: pairKey '${pairKey}' has multiple reps in an arm, but a row in arm '${arm}' ` +\n          `is missing repKey — multi-rep items require an explicit repKey on every row so reps ` +\n          `pair by identity (pairing reps by outcome or by index would bias the paired statistics)`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (byRep.has(row.repKey)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: duplicate repKey '${row.repKey}' for pairKey '${pairKey}' in arm '${arm}' — ` +\n          `(pairKey, repKey) must uniquely identify a rep within an arm`,\n      )\n    }\n    byRep.set(row.repKey, row)\n  }\n  return byRep\n}\n\n/** Paired pass/fail comparison over the pairs where BOTH sides carry `pass`. */\nexport interface PairedCorrectness {\n  /** Discordant pairs where the treatment passed and the baseline failed. */\n  b10: number\n  /** Discordant pairs where the baseline passed and the treatment failed. */\n  b01: number\n  /** Exact McNemar significance over the paired outcomes (`b === b10`, `c === b01`). */\n  mcnemar: McNemarResult\n  /** Paired effect size: p(treatment) − p(baseline) with a paired-variance CI. */\n  riskDifference: RiskDifferenceResult\n}\n\n/** Paired delta summary for one named metric (delta = treatment − baseline). */\nexport interface PairedMetricDelta {\n  name: string\n  /** Pairs where BOTH sides carry a finite value for this metric. */\n  n: number\n  /** Pairs where at least one side does not carry the metric. */\n  nMissing: number\n  /** Median paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  medianDelta: number | null\n  /** Mean paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  meanDelta: number | null\n  /** Bootstrap CI on the paired delta (`pairedBootstrap`); null when\n   *  `n === 0` — a zero-width [0, 0] interval on no data would read as a\n   *  measured tight null. */\n  bootstrapCi: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n  /** Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the paired deltas; null when `n === 0`. */\n  wilcoxon: { w: number; p: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface ComparePairedArmsOptions extends PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Supply all expected seeds to report as-assigned and as-formed populations. */\n  assignments?: readonly ArmAssignment[]\n  /** Metrics to compare. Default: every metric name observed on any matched\n   *  pair, sorted. A name that appears on no pair is still reported (with\n   *  `n = 0`) so a misspelled metric is visible instead of vanishing. */\n  metricNames?: string[]\n  /** Passed through to `pairedBootstrap` — set `seed` for reproducible CIs. */\n  bootstrap?: PairedBootstrapOptions\n}\n\nexport interface PairedArmsComparison {\n  /** Absent when the assignment population is unknown (no roster supplied). */\n  armPopulations?: ArmPopulationReading[]\n  nPairs: number\n  nUnpairedBaseline: number\n  nUnpairedTreatment: number\n  /** null when no matched pair carries `pass` on both sides — a pass/fail\n   *  verdict over rows that never measured pass/fail would be fabricated. */\n  correctness: PairedCorrectness | null\n  metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Full matched-pair arm comparison: pair via {@link pairArms}, then compose\n * the paired estimators from `statistics` over the matched pairs.\n *\n * Correctness uses only the pairs where both sides carry `pass` (`mcnemar.n`\n * is that subset's size); each metric uses only the pairs where both sides\n * carry a finite value for it, with the remainder counted in `nMissing`.\n * Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout. With an assignment roster, pairing\n * covers declared seed identities; missing observations remain identity-only rows\n * and never contribute fabricated outcomes or metrics. Per-arm summaries report\n * every assignment and the explicitly formed subset separately.\n *\n * Fail-loud: inherits {@link pairArms}'s unknown-arm throw, and throws on a\n * non-finite metric value — silently treating corrupt telemetry as \"metric\n * absent\" would misreport it as missing coverage.\n */\nexport function comparePairedArms(\n  rows: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  opts: ComparePairedArmsOptions,\n): PairedArmsComparison {\n  const populations =\n    opts.assignments === undefined ? undefined : prepareArmPopulations(rows, opts.assignments, opts)\n  const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(populations?.rows ?? rows, opts)\n\n  let correctness: PairedCorrectness | null = null\n  const baselinePass: number[] = []\n  const treatmentPass: number[] = []\n  for (const pair of pairs) {\n    if (pair.baseline.pass == null || pair.treatment.pass == null) continue\n    baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0)\n    treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0)\n  }\n  if (baselinePass.length > 0) {\n    const mc = mcnemar(baselinePass, treatmentPass)\n    correctness = {\n      b10: mc.b,\n      b01: mc.c,\n      mcnemar: mc,\n      riskDifference: pairedRiskDifference(baselinePass, treatmentPass),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const metricNames =\n    opts.metricNames ??\n    [\n      ...new Set(\n        pairs.flatMap((p) => [\n          ...Object.keys(p.baseline.metrics ?? {}),\n          ...Object.keys(p.treatment.metrics ?? {}),\n        ]),\n      ),\n    ].sort()\n\n  const metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[] = metricNames.map((name) => {\n    const before: number[] = []\n    const after: number[] = []\n    let nMissing = 0\n    for (const pair of pairs) {\n      const b = metricValue(pair.baseline, name)\n      const t = metricValue(pair.treatment, name)\n      if (b === undefined || t === undefined) {\n        nMissing++\n        continue\n      }\n      before.push(b)\n      after.push(t)\n    }\n    const bootstrapCi = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts.bootstrap)\n    return {\n      name,\n      n: before.length,\n      nMissing,\n      medianDelta: bootstrapCi?.median ?? null,\n      meanDelta: bootstrapCi?.mean ?? null,\n      bootstrapCi,\n      wilcoxon: before.length === 0 ? null : wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after),\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    ...(populations ? { armPopulations: populations.readings } : {}),\n    nPairs: pairs.length,\n    nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,\n    nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,\n    correctness,\n    metricDeltas,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface MatchedRunRecordPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey: string\n  baseline: RunRecord\n  treatment: RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface PairRunRecordsResult {\n  pairs: MatchedRunRecordPair[]\n  unpairedBaseline: RunRecord[]\n  unpairedTreatment: RunRecord[]\n}\n\ninterface RunRecordArmRow extends PairedArmRow {\n  run: RunRecord\n  repKey: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Pair two RunRecord arms by the identity of the evaluated work:\n * `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * Falling back to array order, candidate id, or experiment id can compare\n * different tasks and fabricate lift. Duplicate identities throw.\n */\nexport function pairRunRecords(\n  baselineRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n  treatmentRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n): PairRunRecordsResult {\n  const baselineRows = runRecordArmRows(baselineRuns, 'baseline')\n  const treatmentRows = runRecordArmRows(treatmentRuns, 'treatment')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(baselineRows, 'baseline')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(treatmentRows, 'treatment')\n  if (baselineRows.length === 0 || treatmentRows.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      pairs: [],\n      unpairedBaseline: baselineRows.map((row) => row.run),\n      unpairedTreatment: treatmentRows.map((row) => row.run),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const result = pairArms([...baselineRows, ...treatmentRows], {\n    baselineArm: 'baseline',\n    treatmentArm: 'treatment',\n  })\n  return {\n    pairs: result.pairs.map((pair) => {\n      const baseline = pair.baseline as RunRecordArmRow\n      const treatment = pair.treatment as RunRecordArmRow\n      return {\n        pairKey: pair.pairKey,\n        repKey: baseline.repKey,\n        baseline: baseline.run,\n        treatment: treatment.run,\n      }\n    }),\n    unpairedBaseline: result.unpairedBaseline.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n    unpairedTreatment: result.unpairedTreatment.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction runRecordArmRows(runs: readonly RunRecord[], arm: string): RunRecordArmRow[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => {\n    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId.trim()\n    if (!scenarioId) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairRunRecords: run '${run.runId}' is missing scenarioId; paired comparisons require explicit scenario identity`,\n      )\n    }\n    return {\n      pairKey: JSON.stringify([run.experimentId, scenarioId]),\n      repKey: String(run.seed),\n      arm,\n      run,\n    }\n  })\n}\n\nfunction validateRunRecordArmRows(rows: readonly RunRecordArmRow[], arm: string): void {\n  const byPairKey = new Map<string, RunRecordArmRow[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    const group = byPairKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byPairKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n  }\n  for (const [pairKey, group] of byPairKey) {\n    if (group.length > 1) indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction metricValue(row: PairedArmRow, name: string): number | undefined {\n  const v = row.metrics?.[name]\n  if (v == null) return undefined\n  if (!Number.isFinite(v)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 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package/dist/{power-and-mde-N5nU4_Ly.js → power-and-mde-CQX-0weG.js}

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
+import { o as normalCdf } from "./paired-arms-B2ttLc0_.js";
 import { s as zQuantile } from "./internal-BTK91Bqt.js";
-import { o as normalCdf } from "./paired-arms-Ct4LTKc1.js";
 //#region src/statistics/power-and-mde.ts
 /**
 * Required N per arm for a two-sample comparison at target effect size,
@@ -97,4 +97,4 @@ function mcnemarPower(opts) {
 //#endregion
 export { requiredSampleSize as a, requiredPairedSampleSize as i, mcnemarRequiredN as n, pairedMde as r, mcnemarPower as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=power-and-mde-N5nU4_Ly.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=power-and-mde-CQX-0weG.js.map

package/dist/{power-and-mde-N5nU4_Ly.js.map → power-and-mde-CQX-0weG.js.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"power-and-mde-N5nU4_Ly.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/statistics/power-and-mde.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { normalCdf } from '../math/normal'\nimport { zQuantile } from './internal'\n\n// ── Power analysis + minimum detectable effect ───────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Required N per arm for a two-sample comparison at target effect size,\n * alpha, and power. Normal-approximation formula:\n *   n = 2 * ( (z_{1-α/2} + z_{1-β}) / d )^2\n * where d is Cohen's d. Returns Infinity for effect ≤ 0.\n */\nexport function requiredSampleSize(opts: {\n  effect: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  const effect = opts.effect\n  if (!Number.isFinite(effect) || effect <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  const n = 2 * ((zAlpha + zBeta) / effect) ** 2\n  return Math.ceil(n)\n}\n\n/**\n * Required number of paired observations for a target Cohen's dz.\n * Unlike the independent-groups formula, this has no two-arm factor of two.\n *\n * Normal quantiles with no t correction, so treat the result as a LOWER bound:\n * it returns 32 where the exact t-based answer is 34 at dz = 0.5, and 13 where\n * it is 15 at dz = 0.8 — a 6–13 % shortfall precisely in the range a caller\n * consults to decide whether 3–10 repetitions suffice.\n */\nexport function requiredPairedSampleSize(opts: {\n  effect: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  const effect = opts.effect\n  if (!Number.isFinite(effect) || effect <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  return Math.ceil(((zAlpha + zBeta) / effect) ** 2)\n}\n\n/**\n * Minimum detectable paired effect (standardised units) for a target paired\n * sample size: d_min = (z_{1-α/2} + z_β) / sqrt(n_paired). Multiply by\n * sd(deltas) for score units; treat as a lower bound — Wilcoxon and bootstrap\n * have asymptotic relative efficiency below 1 vs the t-test on heavy tails.\n */\nexport function pairedMde(opts: {\n  nPaired: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(opts.nPaired) || opts.nPaired <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  return (zAlpha + zBeta) / Math.sqrt(opts.nPaired)\n}\n\n/**\n * Number of paired observations needed for a McNemar test to reach a target\n * power — the pre-registration companion to {@link mcnemar}. Parametrised by the\n * expected discordant-cell probabilities `p10` (P[treatment wins on a pair]) and\n * `p01` (P[control wins]); concordant pairs carry no information, so the count\n * is driven entirely by the discordant rate. Lachin's (1992) asymptotic normal\n * approximation: with discordant rate `pDisc = p10 + p01` and marginal effect\n * `δ = p10 − p01`,\n *   n = ( z_{1-α/2}·√pDisc + z_{1-β}·√(pDisc − δ²) )² / δ².\n * Returns Infinity when there is no effect (p10 === p01). Asymptotic — at the\n * tiny discordant counts where the exact {@link mcnemar} differs from the normal\n * approximation, treat the result as a lower bound and prefer the discordant-pair\n * floor.\n */\nexport function mcnemarRequiredN(opts: {\n  p10: number\n  p01: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  const { p10, p01 } = opts\n  if (p10 < 0 || p01 < 0 || p10 + p01 > 1) {\n    throw new Error(`mcnemarRequiredN: require p10,p01 ≥ 0 and p10+p01 ≤ 1 (got ${p10}, ${p01})`)\n  }\n  const delta = p10 - p01\n  if (delta === 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const pDisc = p10 + p01\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  const n =\n    (zAlpha * Math.sqrt(pDisc) + zBeta * Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, pDisc - delta * delta))) ** 2 /\n    (delta * delta)\n  return Math.ceil(n)\n}\n\n/**\n * Power of a McNemar test at a given number of paired observations, the inverse\n * of {@link mcnemarRequiredN} (same Lachin asymptotic model, same parameters).\n * Returns a value in [0, 1]; equals `alpha` when there is no effect.\n */\nexport function mcnemarPower(opts: {\n  p10: number\n  p01: number\n  nPairs: number\n  alpha?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  const { p10, p01, nPairs } = opts\n  if (p10 < 0 || p01 < 0 || p10 + p01 > 1) {\n    throw new Error(`mcnemarPower: require p10,p01 ≥ 0 and p10+p01 ≤ 1 (got ${p10}, ${p01})`)\n  }\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const delta = p10 - p01\n  if (delta === 0 || nPairs <= 0) return alpha\n  const pDisc = p10 + p01\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const denom = Math.sqrt(Math.max(1e-12, pDisc - delta * delta))\n  const zBeta = (Math.sqrt(nPairs) * Math.abs(delta) - zAlpha * Math.sqrt(pDisc)) / denom\n  return Math.min(1, Math.max(0, normalCdf(zBeta)))\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;;;;;;;AAWA,SAAgB,mBAAmB,MAKxB;CACT,MAAM,SAAS,KAAK;CACpB,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU,GAAG,OAAO;CACpD,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAGlC,MAAM,IAAI,MAFK,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAEnC,IADP,UAAU,KACK,KAAK,WAAW;CAC7C,OAAO,KAAK,KAAK,CAAC;AACpB;;;;;;;;;;AAWA,SAAgB,yBAAyB,MAK9B;CACT,MAAM,SAAS,KAAK;CACpB,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU,GAAG,OAAO;CACpD,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAClC,MAAM,SAAS,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK;CAC7D,MAAM,QAAQ,UAAU,KAAK;CAC7B,OAAO,KAAK,OAAO,SAAS,SAAS,WAAW,CAAC;AACnD;;;;;;;AAQA,SAAgB,UAAU,MAKf;CACT,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,KAAK,OAAO,KAAK,KAAK,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;CAChE,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAGlC,QAFe,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAE3C,IADC,UAAU,KACH,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,OAAO;AAClD;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;AAgBA,SAAgB,iBAAiB,MAMtB;CACT,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,QAAQ;CACrB,IAAI,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,MAAM,GACpC,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,8DAA8D,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE;CAE9F,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM;CACpB,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,OAAO;CACxB,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAClC,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM;CACpB,MAAM,SAAS,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK;CAC7D,MAAM,QAAQ,UAAU,KAAK;CAC7B,MAAM,KACH,SAAS,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,QAAQ,QAAQ,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM,KACtF,QAAQ;CACX,OAAO,KAAK,KAAK,CAAC;AACpB;;;;;;AAOA,SAAgB,aAAa,MAMlB;CACT,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,KAAK,WAAW;CAC7B,IAAI,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,MAAM,GACpC,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,0DAA0D,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE;CAE1F,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAClC,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM;CACpB,IAAI,UAAU,KAAK,UAAU,GAAG,OAAO;CACvC,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM;CACpB,MAAM,SAAS,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK;CAC7D,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI,OAAO,QAAQ,QAAQ,KAAK,CAAC;CAC9D,MAAM,SAAS,KAAK,KAAK,MAAM,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,SAAS,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK;CAClF,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,UAAU,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;AAClD"}
+{"version":3,"file":"power-and-mde-CQX-0weG.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/statistics/power-and-mde.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { normalCdf } from '../math/normal'\nimport { zQuantile } from './internal'\n\n// ── Power analysis + minimum detectable effect ───────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Required N per arm for a two-sample comparison at target effect size,\n * alpha, and power. Normal-approximation formula:\n *   n = 2 * ( (z_{1-α/2} + z_{1-β}) / d )^2\n * where d is Cohen's d. Returns Infinity for effect ≤ 0.\n */\nexport function requiredSampleSize(opts: {\n  effect: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  const effect = opts.effect\n  if (!Number.isFinite(effect) || effect <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  const n = 2 * ((zAlpha + zBeta) / effect) ** 2\n  return Math.ceil(n)\n}\n\n/**\n * Required number of paired observations for a target Cohen's dz.\n * Unlike the independent-groups formula, this has no two-arm factor of two.\n *\n * Normal quantiles with no t correction, so treat the result as a LOWER bound:\n * it returns 32 where the exact t-based answer is 34 at dz = 0.5, and 13 where\n * it is 15 at dz = 0.8 — a 6–13 % shortfall precisely in the range a caller\n * consults to decide whether 3–10 repetitions suffice.\n */\nexport function requiredPairedSampleSize(opts: {\n  effect: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  const effect = opts.effect\n  if (!Number.isFinite(effect) || effect <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  return Math.ceil(((zAlpha + zBeta) / effect) ** 2)\n}\n\n/**\n * Minimum detectable paired effect (standardised units) for a target paired\n * sample size: d_min = (z_{1-α/2} + z_β) / sqrt(n_paired). Multiply by\n * sd(deltas) for score units; treat as a lower bound — Wilcoxon and bootstrap\n * have asymptotic relative efficiency below 1 vs the t-test on heavy tails.\n */\nexport function pairedMde(opts: {\n  nPaired: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(opts.nPaired) || opts.nPaired <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  return (zAlpha + zBeta) / Math.sqrt(opts.nPaired)\n}\n\n/**\n * Number of paired observations needed for a McNemar test to reach a target\n * power — the pre-registration companion to {@link mcnemar}. Parametrised by the\n * expected discordant-cell probabilities `p10` (P[treatment wins on a pair]) and\n * `p01` (P[control wins]); concordant pairs carry no information, so the count\n * is driven entirely by the discordant rate. Lachin's (1992) asymptotic normal\n * approximation: with discordant rate `pDisc = p10 + p01` and marginal effect\n * `δ = p10 − p01`,\n *   n = ( z_{1-α/2}·√pDisc + z_{1-β}·√(pDisc − δ²) )² / δ².\n * Returns Infinity when there is no effect (p10 === p01). Asymptotic — at the\n * tiny discordant counts where the exact {@link mcnemar} differs from the normal\n * approximation, treat the result as a lower bound and prefer the discordant-pair\n * floor.\n */\nexport function mcnemarRequiredN(opts: {\n  p10: number\n  p01: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  const { p10, p01 } = opts\n  if (p10 < 0 || p01 < 0 || p10 + p01 > 1) {\n    throw new Error(`mcnemarRequiredN: require p10,p01 ≥ 0 and p10+p01 ≤ 1 (got ${p10}, ${p01})`)\n  }\n  const delta = p10 - p01\n  if (delta === 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const pDisc = p10 + p01\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  const n =\n    (zAlpha * Math.sqrt(pDisc) + zBeta * Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, pDisc - delta * delta))) ** 2 /\n    (delta * delta)\n  return Math.ceil(n)\n}\n\n/**\n * Power of a McNemar test at a given number of paired observations, the inverse\n * of {@link mcnemarRequiredN} (same Lachin asymptotic model, same parameters).\n * Returns a value in [0, 1]; equals `alpha` when there is no effect.\n */\nexport function mcnemarPower(opts: {\n  p10: number\n  p01: number\n  nPairs: number\n  alpha?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  const { p10, p01, nPairs } = opts\n  if (p10 < 0 || p01 < 0 || p10 + p01 > 1) {\n    throw new Error(`mcnemarPower: require p10,p01 ≥ 0 and p10+p01 ≤ 1 (got ${p10}, ${p01})`)\n  }\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const delta = p10 - p01\n  if (delta === 0 || nPairs <= 0) return alpha\n  const pDisc = p10 + p01\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const denom = Math.sqrt(Math.max(1e-12, pDisc - delta * delta))\n  const zBeta = (Math.sqrt(nPairs) * Math.abs(delta) - zAlpha * Math.sqrt(pDisc)) / denom\n  return Math.min(1, Math.max(0, normalCdf(zBeta)))\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;;;;;;;AAWA,SAAgB,mBAAmB,MAKxB;CACT,MAAM,SAAS,KAAK;CACpB,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU,GAAG,OAAO;CACpD,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAGlC,MAAM,IAAI,MAFK,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAEnC,IADP,UAAU,KACK,KAAK,WAAW;CAC7C,OAAO,KAAK,KAAK,CAAC;AACpB;;;;;;;;;;AAWA,SAAgB,yBAAyB,MAK9B;CACT,MAAM,SAAS,KAAK;CACpB,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU,GAAG,OAAO;CACpD,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAClC,MAAM,SAAS,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK;CAC7D,MAAM,QAAQ,UAAU,KAAK;CAC7B,OAAO,KAAK,OAAO,SAAS,SAAS,WAAW,CAAC;AACnD;;;;;;;AAQA,SAAgB,UAAU,MAKf;CACT,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,KAAK,OAAO,KAAK,KAAK,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;CAChE,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAGlC,QAFe,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAE3C,IADC,UAAU,KACH,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,OAAO;AAClD;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;AAgBA,SAAgB,iBAAiB,MAMtB;CACT,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,QAAQ;CACrB,IAAI,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,MAAM,GACpC,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,8DAA8D,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE;CAE9F,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM;CACpB,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,OAAO;CACxB,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAClC,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM;CACpB,MAAM,SAAS,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK;CAC7D,MAAM,QAAQ,UAAU,KAAK;CAC7B,MAAM,KACH,SAAS,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,QAAQ,QAAQ,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM,KACtF,QAAQ;CACX,OAAO,KAAK,KAAK,CAAC;AACpB;;;;;;AAOA,SAAgB,aAAa,MAMlB;CACT,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,KAAK,WAAW;CAC7B,IAAI,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,MAAM,GACpC,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,0DAA0D,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE;CAE1F,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS;CAC5B,MAAM,WAAW,KAAK,YAAY;CAClC,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM;CACpB,IAAI,UAAU,KAAK,UAAU,GAAG,OAAO;CACvC,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM;CACpB,MAAM,SAAS,UAAU,WAAW,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK;CAC7D,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI,OAAO,QAAQ,QAAQ,KAAK,CAAC;CAC9D,MAAM,SAAS,KAAK,KAAK,MAAM,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,SAAS,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK;CAClF,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,UAAU,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;AAClD"}

package/dist/{prime-protocol-CckHBxGu.d.ts → prime-protocol-BEaqBoQE.d.ts}

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { m as CustomTokenPricing } from "./cost-ledger-C1W3ICmP.js";
-import { p as AnalystUsageReceipt } from "./types-8yQzNm8u.js";
+import { p as AnalystUsageReceipt } from "./types-DGImvHIr.js";
 import { t as PrimeBridgeTransport } from "./prime-bridge-transport-6feEglLf.js";
 //#region src/analyst/reply-contract.d.ts
 /**
@@ -310,4 +310,4 @@ interface PrimeProtocolIdentity {
 declare function primeProtocolSha256(identity: PrimeProtocolIdentity): string;
 //#endregion
 export { runPrimeExchange as C, ReplyRowDecoded as D, ReplyEnvelope as E, ReplyRowRejection as O, projectPrimeTrajectory as S, ReplyContract as T, buildPrimePrompt as _, PrimeProjectionOutcome as a, normalizePrimeUsage as b, PrimeProtocolIdentity as c, PrimeRepairPromptSpec as d, PrimeRepairState as f, analystUsageReceiptFromPrimeUsage as g, PrimeTurnRecord as h, PrimeProjectionDelivery as i, PrimeRawUsage as l, PrimeRowDecoded as m, PrimeExchangeOutcome as n, PrimeProjectionSource as o, PrimeReplyContract as p, PrimeFailure as r, PrimePromptSpec as s, PrimeExchangeOptions as t, PrimeRejectedRow as u, buildPrimeRepairPrompt as v, DecodedReply as w, primeProtocolSha256 as x, mergePrimeRawUsage as y };
-//# sourceMappingURL=prime-protocol-CckHBxGu.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=prime-protocol-BEaqBoQE.d.ts.map

package/dist/{prime-protocol-CckHBxGu.d.ts.map → prime-protocol-BEaqBoQE.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"prime-protocol-BEaqBoQE.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/analyst/reply-contract.ts","../src/analyst/prime-protocol.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;;;;;;;;;KAaY,gBAAgB;EAAU;EAAU,KAAK;;EAAW;EAAW;;;UAG1D;EACf;;EAEA,QAAQ;;UAGO,cAAc;;EAE7B;;EAEA;;;;;EAKA;;;;;;EAMA,UAAU,cAAc,gBAAgB,gBAAgB;;;;;;EAMxD;;;;;;EAMA,eAAe,iBAAiB;;;;;;EAMhC;;;;;EAKA;;;UAIe;EACf;EACA;;UAGe,aAAa;EAC5B,MAAM;;EAEN,QAAQ;EACR,UAAU;;EAEV;;EAEA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;KC3CU,gBAAgB,QAAQ,gBAAgB;KAExC,mBAAmB,QAAQ,cAAc;UAIpC;EACf;;EAEA;EACA;;EAEA;EACA;;EAEA;;iBAGc,iBAAiB,MAAM;UAatB;EACf;EACA;EACA;;;iBAIc,uBAAuB,MAAM;;;;;;UAoE5B;;;;;;EAMf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;;;;EAOA;;;iBAQc,oBAAoB,eAAe;;;;;;iBAgBnC,mBAAmB,GAAG,eAAe,GAAG,gBAAgB;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBA6BxD,kCACd,OAAO,eACP,SAAS,qBACR;;;;;;;;KAqCS;EAEN;EACA;;EAEA;EAAqB;EAAiB;EAAgB;;EACtD;EAAiB;EAAiB;;UAEvB;EACf;;EAEA;;;UAIe;EACf;EACA,OAAO;;EAEP;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;;KAGU,qBAAqB;EAE3B;;EAEA;EACA,MAAM;EACN,UAAU;;EAEV;;EAEA;EACA,OAAO;EACP,OAAO;EACP,QAAQ;EACR;;EAGA;EACA,SAAS;EACT,OAAO;EACP,OAAO;EACP,QAAQ;;EAER;;UAGW,qBAAqB;EACpC,UAAU,mBAAmB;EAC7B;EACA,WAAW;;EAEX;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA,SAAS;;;;;;;iBAQW,iBAAiB,MACrC,SAAS,qBAAqB,QAC7B,QAAQ,qBAAqB;;;;;;UAyLf,sBAAsB;;EAErC,QAAQ,iBAAiB;;EAEzB,UAAU,iBAAiB;;EAE3B;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;;KAGU,uBAAuB;EAE7B;EACA,gBAAgB;EAChB;EACA,UAAU;;EAEV;EAAW;EAAgB;;;;;;;;;iBASX,uBAAuB,OAC3C,QAAQ,sBAAsB,QAC9B;EAAU;IACT,QAAQ,uBAAuB;UA8BjB;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA,QAAQ,SAAS;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAaH,oBAAoB,UAAU"}

package/dist/{proposal-findings-E1aSC_cU.js → proposal-findings-D0_zkQ2l.js}

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { S as ProposalFindingSchema } from "./external-optimizer-subprocess-D670Oxf2.js";
+import { S as ProposalFindingSchema } from "./external-optimizer-subprocess-DA02c_L6.js";
 //#region src/analyst/proposal-findings.ts
 /** True when a finding names a source candidate generation may learn from. */
 function isProposalFinding(finding) {
@@ -23,4 +23,4 @@ function findingLabel(finding, index) {
 //#endregion
 export { assertProposalFindings as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=proposal-findings-E1aSC_cU.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=proposal-findings-D0_zkQ2l.js.map

package/dist/{proposal-findings-E1aSC_cU.js.map → proposal-findings-D0_zkQ2l.js.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"proposal-findings-E1aSC_cU.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/analyst/proposal-findings.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { ProposalFindingSchema } from './finding-scope'\nimport type { ProposalFinding } from './types'\n\n/** True when a finding names a source candidate generation may learn from. */\nfunction isProposalFinding(finding: unknown): finding is ProposalFinding {\n  return ProposalFindingSchema.safeParse(finding).success\n}\n\n/**\n * Reject findings whose source has not been explicitly admitted for candidate\n * generation. Search feedback and observed production behavior are allowed;\n * final evaluation data has no allowed origin.\n */\nexport function assertProposalFindings(\n  findings: unknown,\n  context = 'proposal findings',\n): ReadonlyArray<ProposalFinding> {\n  if (!Array.isArray(findings)) {\n    throw new TypeError(`${context}: expected an array`)\n  }\n  const rejected = findings.flatMap((finding, index) =>\n    isProposalFinding(finding) ? [] : [findingLabel(finding, index)],\n  )\n  if (rejected.length > 0) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `${context}: every finding must match AnalystFinding and declare ` +\n        `proposal_origin as search or production. ` +\n        `Rejected findings: [${rejected.join(', ')}].`,\n    )\n  }\n  return findings as ReadonlyArray<ProposalFinding>\n}\n\nfunction findingLabel(finding: unknown, index: number): string {\n  if (typeof finding !== 'object' || finding === null) return `index ${index}`\n  const id = (finding as { finding_id?: unknown }).finding_id\n  return typeof id === 'string' && id.length > 0 ? id : `index ${index}`\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;AAIA,SAAS,kBAAkB,SAA8C;CACvE,OAAO,sBAAsB,UAAU,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;AAClD;;;;;;AAOA,SAAgB,uBACd,UACA,UAAU,qBACsB;CAChC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,QAAQ,QAAQ,GACzB,MAAM,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,QAAQ,oBAAoB;CAErD,MAAM,WAAW,SAAS,SAAS,SAAS,UAC1C,kBAAkB,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,SAAS,KAAK,CAAC,CACjE;CACA,IAAI,SAAS,SAAS,GACpB,MAAM,IAAI,MACR,GAAG,QAAQ,qHAEc,SAAS,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,GAC/C;CAEF,OAAO;AACT;AAEA,SAAS,aAAa,SAAkB,OAAuB;CAC7D,IAAI,OAAO,YAAY,YAAY,YAAY,MAAM,OAAO,SAAS;CACrE,MAAM,KAAM,QAAqC;CACjD,OAAO,OAAO,OAAO,YAAY,GAAG,SAAS,IAAI,KAAK,SAAS;AACjE"}
+{"version":3,"file":"proposal-findings-D0_zkQ2l.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/analyst/proposal-findings.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { ProposalFindingSchema } from './finding-scope'\nimport type { ProposalFinding } from './types'\n\n/** True when a finding names a source candidate generation may learn from. */\nfunction isProposalFinding(finding: unknown): finding is ProposalFinding {\n  return ProposalFindingSchema.safeParse(finding).success\n}\n\n/**\n * Reject findings whose source has not been explicitly admitted for candidate\n * generation. Search feedback and observed production behavior are allowed;\n * final evaluation data has no allowed origin.\n */\nexport function assertProposalFindings(\n  findings: unknown,\n  context = 'proposal findings',\n): ReadonlyArray<ProposalFinding> {\n  if (!Array.isArray(findings)) {\n    throw new TypeError(`${context}: expected an array`)\n  }\n  const rejected = findings.flatMap((finding, index) =>\n    isProposalFinding(finding) ? [] : [findingLabel(finding, index)],\n  )\n  if (rejected.length > 0) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `${context}: every finding must match AnalystFinding and declare ` +\n        `proposal_origin as search or production. ` +\n        `Rejected findings: [${rejected.join(', ')}].`,\n    )\n  }\n  return findings as ReadonlyArray<ProposalFinding>\n}\n\nfunction findingLabel(finding: unknown, index: number): string {\n  if (typeof finding !== 'object' || finding === null) return `index ${index}`\n  const id = (finding as { finding_id?: unknown }).finding_id\n  return typeof id === 'string' && id.length > 0 ? id : `index ${index}`\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;AAIA,SAAS,kBAAkB,SAA8C;CACvE,OAAO,sBAAsB,UAAU,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;AAClD;;;;;;AAOA,SAAgB,uBACd,UACA,UAAU,qBACsB;CAChC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,QAAQ,QAAQ,GACzB,MAAM,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,QAAQ,oBAAoB;CAErD,MAAM,WAAW,SAAS,SAAS,SAAS,UAC1C,kBAAkB,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,SAAS,KAAK,CAAC,CACjE;CACA,IAAI,SAAS,SAAS,GACpB,MAAM,IAAI,MACR,GAAG,QAAQ,qHAEc,SAAS,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,GAC/C;CAEF,OAAO;AACT;AAEA,SAAS,aAAa,SAAkB,OAAuB;CAC7D,IAAI,OAAO,YAAY,YAAY,YAAY,MAAM,OAAO,SAAS;CACrE,MAAM,KAAM,QAAqC;CACjD,OAAO,OAAO,OAAO,YAAY,GAAG,SAAS,IAAI,KAAK,SAAS;AACjE"}

package/dist/{registry-B_yG-1jh.d.ts → registry-DDKaUrmM.d.ts}

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import { o as CostLedgerHandle } from "./cost-ledger-C1W3ICmP.js";
-import { c as AnalystRunEvent, d as AnalystRunSummary, i as AnalystFinding, l as AnalystRunInputs, n as AnalystContext, t as Analyst, u as AnalystRunResult } from "./types-8yQzNm8u.js";
+import { c as AnalystRunEvent, d as AnalystRunSummary, i as AnalystFinding, l as AnalystRunInputs, n as AnalystContext, t as Analyst, u as AnalystRunResult } from "./types-DGImvHIr.js";
 import { x as ChatClient } from "./types-eMhdacVp.js";
-import { i as ExactAnalystRunEvent, o as ExactAnalystRunResult, u as ExactExecutionComponentIdentity } from "./exact-types-BYFmYq44.js";
+import { i as ExactAnalystRunEvent, o as ExactAnalystRunResult, u as ExactExecutionComponentIdentity } from "./exact-types-CVn1QxFO.js";
 //#region src/analyst/registry-plan.d.ts
 interface AnalystHooks {
   /** Legacy runs may mutate ctx; exact runs provide a frozen observational context. */
@@ -171,4 +171,4 @@ declare class AnalystRegistry {
 }
 //#endregion
 export { BudgetPolicy as a, RegistryRunOpts as c, AnalystRegistryOptions as i, ExactAnalystRunExecutionError as n, ExactAnalystBudgetPolicy as o, AnalystHooks as r, ExactRegistryRunOpts as s, AnalystRegistry as t };
-//# sourceMappingURL=registry-B_yG-1jh.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=registry-DDKaUrmM.d.ts.map

package/dist/{registry-B_yG-1jh.d.ts.map → registry-DDKaUrmM.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"registry-B_yG-1jh.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/analyst/registry-plan.ts","../src/analyst/registry-execution.ts","../src/analyst/registry.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;UAiBiB;;EAEf,iBAAiB;IACf,SAAS;IACT,KAAK;IACL;aACS;;EAEX,gBAAgB;IACd,SAAS;IACT,SAAS;IACT,UAAU;IACV;aACS;;;;;;EAMX,SAAS;IACP,SAAS;IACT,OAAO;IACP;MACE,+BAA+B,QAAQ;;EAE3C,YAAY;IAAQ,QAAQ;aAA4B;;UAGzC;;EAEf;;EAEA,UAAU;;;;;;;EAOV,YAAY;IACV,SAAS;IACT;IACA;IACA;;;UAIa;;EAEf,OAAO;;EAEP,OAAO,aAAa,SAAS;;EAE7B,QAAQ;;EAER,gBAAgB;;EAEhB,gBAAgB;;EAEhB,eAAe;;UAGA;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA,SAAS;;EAET;;EAEA,SAAS;;EAET,aAAa;;EAEb;;EAEA,OAAO;;;;;;;;;EASP,gBAAgB,cAAc,kBAAkB,eAAe,cAAc;;;;;;EAM7E;;;KAIU;WAEG;WACA;;WAGA;WACA;;WAEA,SAAS,SAAS;;;;;;;;;;UAWhB;WACN;WACA,QAAQ;WACR;WACA,QAAQ;WACR,YAAY;WACZ,oBAAoB;WACpB;WACA,MAAM,SAAS;WACf,eACL,cAAc,kBACd,SAAS,eAAe,cAAc;WAEjC;WACA;WACA;WACA;;;;;cChHE,sCAAsC;WACxC;WACA,QAAQ;EAEjB,YAAY,iBAAiB,QAAQ,uBAAuB,UAAU;;;;cCN3D;mBACM;mBACA;EAEjB,YAAY,UAAS;EAIrB,SAAS,SAAS;EAsBlB,QAAQ;IACN;IACA;IACA;IACA,MAAM;;EAUF,IACJ,eACA,QAAQ,kBACR,UAAS,kBACR,QAAQ;;EAUL,SACJ,eACA,QAAQ,kBACR,SAAS,uBACR,QAAQ;;EAQJ,eACL,eACA,QAAQ,kBACR,SAAS,uBACR,eAAe;;;;;;;;;;;;EAmBX,UACL,eACA,QAAQ,kBACR,UAAS,kBACR,eAAe"}
+{"version":3,"file":"registry-DDKaUrmM.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/analyst/registry-plan.ts","../src/analyst/registry-execution.ts","../src/analyst/registry.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;UAiBiB;;EAEf,iBAAiB;IACf,SAAS;IACT,KAAK;IACL;aACS;;EAEX,gBAAgB;IACd,SAAS;IACT,SAAS;IACT,UAAU;IACV;aACS;;;;;;EAMX,SAAS;IACP,SAAS;IACT,OAAO;IACP;MACE,+BAA+B,QAAQ;;EAE3C,YAAY;IAAQ,QAAQ;aAA4B;;UAGzC;;EAEf;;EAEA,UAAU;;;;;;;EAOV,YAAY;IACV,SAAS;IACT;IACA;IACA;;;UAIa;;EAEf,OAAO;;EAEP,OAAO,aAAa,SAAS;;EAE7B,QAAQ;;EAER,gBAAgB;;EAEhB,gBAAgB;;EAEhB,eAAe;;UAGA;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA,SAAS;;EAET;;EAEA,SAAS;;EAET,aAAa;;EAEb;;EAEA,OAAO;;;;;;;;;EASP,gBAAgB,cAAc,kBAAkB,eAAe,cAAc;;;;;;EAM7E;;;KAIU;WAEG;WACA;;WAGA;WACA;;WAEA,SAAS,SAAS;;;;;;;;;;UAWhB;WACN;WACA,QAAQ;WACR;WACA,QAAQ;WACR,YAAY;WACZ,oBAAoB;WACpB;WACA,MAAM,SAAS;WACf,eACL,cAAc,kBACd,SAAS,eAAe,cAAc;WAEjC;WACA;WACA;WACA;;;;;cChHE,sCAAsC;WACxC;WACA,QAAQ;EAEjB,YAAY,iBAAiB,QAAQ,uBAAuB,UAAU;;;;cCN3D;mBACM;mBACA;EAEjB,YAAY,UAAS;EAIrB,SAAS,SAAS;EAsBlB,QAAQ;IACN;IACA;IACA;IACA,MAAM;;EAUF,IACJ,eACA,QAAQ,kBACR,UAAS,kBACR,QAAQ;;EAUL,SACJ,eACA,QAAQ,kBACR,SAAS,uBACR,QAAQ;;EAQJ,eACL,eACA,QAAQ,kBACR,SAAS,uBACR,eAAe;;;;;;;;;;;;EAmBX,UACL,eACA,QAAQ,kBACR,UAAS,kBACR,eAAe"}

package/dist/{render-Cs34y0iX.js → render-BhJqXoBH.js}

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import { a as hashCanonical } from "./canonical-Dq2hOQ8L.js";
 import { o as summarizeNumberSeries } from "./descriptive-CVNy48rR.js";
 import { t as roundDecimal } from "./round-decimal-COrKglMh.js";
-import { a as nonEmptyString, c as parseSupervisorTree, d as NO_SOURCE_LIMITS, g as unavailable, h as showMeasured, i as asRecord, l as recordOrNull, m as isUnavailable, o as parseJsonRecord, p as SUPERVISOR_RUN_SCHEMA, r as readTerminalRecord, s as parseJsonl, u as workerSourceKey } from "./terminal-record-D4Rv-j1W.js";
+import { _ as expandJournalEventGroup, a as nonEmptyString, c as parseSupervisorTree, d as NO_SOURCE_LIMITS, g as unavailable, h as showMeasured, i as asRecord, l as recordOrNull, m as isUnavailable, o as parseJsonRecord, p as SUPERVISOR_RUN_SCHEMA, r as readTerminalRecord, s as parseJsonl, u as workerSourceKey } from "./terminal-record-CB9BFtjS.js";
 import { join } from "node:path";
 import { readFile, readdir, stat } from "node:fs/promises";
 //#region src/supervisor-run/analyze-context.ts
@@ -837,16 +837,20 @@ function parseEnvelopeJournal(text, path) {
 			begins.push(begin);
 			continue;
 		}
-		if (kind !== "event") throw formatError(path, line, "kind must be 'begin' or 'event'");
+		if (kind !== "event" && kind !== "events") throw formatError(path, line, "kind must be 'begin', 'event' or 'events'");
 		if (!begun.has(root)) throw formatError(path, line, `event for tree ${JSON.stringify(root)} precedes begin`);
-		const event = recordOrNull(envelope.event);
-		if (event === null) throw formatError(path, line, "event must be an object");
-		if (nonEmptyString(event.kind) === null) throw formatError(path, line, "event.kind must be a non-empty string");
-		events.push({
-			root,
-			event: { ...event },
-			line
-		});
+		const expanded = expandJournalEventGroup(envelope);
+		if (!expanded.succeeded) throw formatError(path, line, expanded.error);
+		for (const row of expanded.value) {
+			const event = recordOrNull(row.event);
+			if (event === null) throw formatError(path, line, "event must be an object");
+			if (nonEmptyString(event.kind) === null) throw formatError(path, line, "event.kind must be a non-empty string");
+			events.push({
+				root,
+				event: { ...event },
+				line
+			});
+		}
 	}
 	if (begins.length === 0) throw formatError(path, 1, "no begin record");
 	const parentSpawnsById = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
@@ -1629,4 +1633,4 @@ function renderSupervisorRollupMarkdown(rollup, title = "Round rollup") {
 //#endregion
 export { findSupervisorRunDirs as a, analyzeSupervisorRunSources as c, analyzeSupervisorRun as i, parsePatch as l, renderSupervisorRunHeadline as n, isRuntimeSupervisorRunDir as o, renderSupervisorRunMarkdown as r, readRuntimeSupervisorRun as s, renderSupervisorRollupMarkdown as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=render-Cs34y0iX.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=render-BhJqXoBH.js.map