@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.216.0 → 0.217.1

package/dist/{summary-report-DtdRucM0.js → summary-report-BsXJoYX5.js}

@@ -1,242 +1,388 @@
-import { p as hashJson } from "./agent-profile-cell-BYc0bxsL.js";
-import { i as makeRng } from "./internal-CRHwS9iz.js";
-import { i as pairedCohensDz } from "./effect-sizes-DiH8MGOH.js";
-import { t as confidenceInterval } from "./descriptive-CnU8Yq29.js";
-import { t as benjaminiHochberg } from "./multiplicity-D9cjmStq.js";
-import { r as pairedBootstrap } from "./paired-tests-jbwPdSz5.js";
-import { r as pairedMde } from "./power-and-mde-fK5Qocwo.js";
-import { a as wilcoxonSignedRank, r as pairRunRecords } from "./paired-arms-DzKn0TfY.js";
+import { s as ValidationError } from "./errors-BcOs5MKW.js";
+import { l as hashJson } from "./agent-profile-cell-B1V1gUZs.js";
 import { r as observedSplitScore } from "./reward-nw2xZGZG.js";
-//#region src/summary-report.ts
-/**
-* Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +
-* bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)
-* BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + paired Cohen's dz versus that comparator.
-*/
-function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
-	const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
-	const confidence = opts.confidence ?? .95;
-	const fdr = opts.fdr ?? .05;
-	const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null;
-	const byCandidate = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-	for (const r of runs) {
-		if (r.splitTag !== split) continue;
-		const v = observedSplitScore(r, split);
-		if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
-		const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? {
-			runs: [],
-			scores: []
-		};
-		bucket.runs.push(r);
-		bucket.scores.push(v);
-		byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket);
-	}
-	const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort();
-	const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : void 0;
-	const tentative = [];
-	for (const id of candidateIds) {
-		const bucket = byCandidate.get(id);
-		const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence);
-		let rawP = null;
-		let d = null;
-		let pairedN = null;
-		let unpairedCandidateN = null;
-		let unpairedComparatorN = null;
-		if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {
-			const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, split);
-			pairedN = paired.before.length;
-			unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN;
-			unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN;
-			if (paired.before.length >= 6) rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p;
-			d = pairedCohensDz(paired.before, paired.after);
-		}
-		tentative.push({
-			candidateId: id,
-			n: bucket.scores.length,
-			mean: ci.mean,
-			ciLow: ci.lower,
-			ciHigh: ci.upper,
-			qValue: rawP,
-			cohensD: d,
-			pairedN,
-			unpairedCandidateN,
-			unpairedComparatorN,
-			rawP
-		});
-	}
-	if (comparator) {
-		const idxs = [];
-		const ps = [];
-		for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {
-			const r = tentative[i];
-			if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue;
-			if (r.rawP === null || !Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue;
-			idxs.push(i);
-			ps.push(r.rawP);
-		}
-		if (ps.length > 0) {
-			const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr);
-			for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) tentative[idxs[k]].qValue = qValues[k];
-		}
-	}
-	const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest);
-	return {
-		rows,
-		comparator,
-		split,
-		markdown: renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split)
-	};
-}
-function pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, split) {
-	const scoreOf = (run) => {
-		const v = observedSplitScore(run, split);
-		return typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : void 0;
-	};
-	const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== void 0);
-	const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== void 0);
-	const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate);
-	return {
-		before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.baseline)),
-		after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.treatment)),
-		unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,
-		unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length
-	};
-}
-function renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split) {
+import { n as renderResearchHtml } from "./reporting-html-Kvlc8oMt.js";
+import { i as makeRng } from "./internal-BTK91Bqt.js";
+import { t as confidenceInterval } from "./descriptive-CVNy48rR.js";
+import { a as wilcoxonSignedRank, r as pairRunRecords } from "./paired-arms-Ct4LTKc1.js";
+import { t as benjaminiHochberg } from "./multiplicity-Sg0U7h8j.js";
+import { i as pairedBootstrap, t as mean } from "./mean-BbA_JCzW.js";
+import { r as pairedMde } from "./power-and-mde-N5nU4_Ly.js";
+//#region src/research-report-render.ts
+function renderResearchMarkdown(report) {
 	const lines = [];
-	const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : "";
-	lines.push(`Summary Table — ${split} split${cmpLabel}`);
+	lines.push(`# ${report.title}`);
 	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("| Candidate | N | Pairs | Unpaired | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's dz |");
-	lines.push("|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|");
-	for (const r of rows) {
-		const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`;
-		const q = r.qValue !== null ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : "—";
-		const d = r.cohensD !== null ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "—";
-		const paired = r.pairedN ?? "—";
-		const unpaired = r.unpairedCandidateN === null || r.unpairedComparatorN === null ? "—" : `${r.unpairedCandidateN}/${r.unpairedComparatorN}`;
-		lines.push(`| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${paired} | ${unpaired} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`);
+	lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`);
+	lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`);
+	lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? "not configured"}`);
+	lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : "not configured"}`);
+	lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \`${report.runFingerprint}\``);
+	lines.push(`**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\`${report.preregistrationHash}\`` : "none"}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("## Executive Summary");
+	lines.push("");
+	for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("## Recommendation");
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`);
+	lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? "N/A"}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("### Rationale");
+	lines.push("");
+	for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("### Risks");
+	lines.push("");
+	for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length ? report.recommendation.risks : ["No material report-level risks detected."]) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("### Next Actions");
+	lines.push("");
+	for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("## Candidate Decision Table");
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("| Candidate | Decision | Mean | Δ̄ | Pr(Δ>0) | q | dz | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |");
+	lines.push("|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|");
+	for (const c of report.candidates) {
+		const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? "-" : signed(c.meanDeltaVsComparator);
+		const prGt = c.prGreaterThanZero === null ? "-" : c.prGreaterThanZero.toFixed(3);
+		const q = c.qValue !== null ? c.qValue.toFixed(4) : "-";
+		const d = c.cohensD !== null ? c.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "-";
+		const gain = c.gainCi ? `[${fmt(c.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(c.gainCi.high)}]` : "-";
+		const mde = c.mde === null || !Number.isFinite(c.mde) ? "-" : fmt(c.mde);
+		lines.push(`| ${c.candidateId} | ${c.decision} | ${fmt(c.mean)} | ${delta} | ${prGt} | ${q} | ${d} | ${c.pairedN} | ${gain} | ${mde} | ${c.onParetoFrontier ? "yes" : "no"} | ${c.gate ?? "-"} |`);
+	}
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("## Statistical Summary");
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push(report.summary.markdown);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("## Methodology");
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("### Assumptions");
+	lines.push("");
+	for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("### Methods");
+	lines.push("");
+	for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("### Alternatives Considered");
+	lines.push("");
+	for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("### When NOT To Apply");
+	lines.push("");
+	for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("### Citations");
+	lines.push("");
+	for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("## Chart Specs");
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms.");
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("```json");
+	lines.push(JSON.stringify({
+		pareto: report.pareto,
+		gains: report.gains
+	}, null, 2));
+	lines.push("```");
+	if (report.failureClusters) {
+		lines.push("");
+		lines.push("## Failure Clusters");
+		lines.push("");
+		lines.push("| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |");
+		lines.push("|---|---:|---:|---|---|");
+		for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) lines.push(`| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? "-"} | ${escapePipes(c.exampleError ?? c.exampleRunId)} |`);
 	}
 	return lines.join("\n");
 }
-/**
-* Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by
-* candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict
-* for overlay.
-*/
-function paretoChart(runs, opts = {}) {
-	const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
-	const buckets = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-	for (const r of runs) {
-		if (r.splitTag !== split) continue;
-		const v = observedSplitScore(r, split);
-		if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
-		if (r.costUsd === null) continue;
-		const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? {
-			cost: [],
-			quality: []
-		};
-		bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd);
-		bucket.quality.push(v);
-		buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket);
-	}
-	const points = [];
-	for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) points.push({
-		candidateId,
-		cost: avg(bucket.cost),
-		quality: avg(bucket.quality),
-		n: bucket.cost.length,
-		onFrontier: false,
-		gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId] ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]) : void 0
-	});
-	for (const p of points) p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p));
-	return {
-		kind: "pareto-cost-quality",
-		split,
-		axes: {
-			x: "costUsd",
-			y: "score"
-		},
-		points
-	};
+function escapePipes(s) {
+	return s.replace(/\|/g, "\\|");
 }
-function dominates(a, b) {
-	return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality);
+function signed(x) {
+	return `${x >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${fmt(x)}`;
 }
-function gateLabel(d) {
-	return d.promote ? "promote" : "reject";
+function formatRope(rope) {
+	return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`;
+}
+function fmt(x) {
+	if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x);
+	return x.toFixed(4);
 }
+//#endregion
+//#region src/research-report-analysis.ts
 /**
-* Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −
-* comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median
-* delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.
+* Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative
+* regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank
+* exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.
 */
-function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
-	const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
-	const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11;
-	if (binCount < 1) throw new Error("gainHistogram: bins must be ≥ 1");
-	const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split), runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split), split);
-	const n = before.length;
-	if (n === 0) return {
-		kind: "gain-distribution",
-		candidateId,
-		comparator,
-		split,
-		n: 0,
-		unpairedCandidateN,
-		unpairedComparatorN,
-		bins: [],
-		median: null,
-		ci: null
+const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6;
+function buildMethodology(ctx) {
+	const assumptions = [
+		"Pairs are matched by (experimentId, scenarioId, seed); input order does not affect the comparison.",
+		"Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario — no mid-run distribution shift.",
+		`Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`
+	];
+	if (ctx.rope) assumptions.push(`The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of "no material difference."`);
+	if (ctx.comparator === null) assumptions.push("No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.");
+	return {
+		assumptions,
+		methods: [
+			"Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and paired Cohen's dz via summaryTable.",
+			"Paired evidence summarised with a frequentist bootstrap CI on the median delta and a Dirichlet-weight Bayesian bootstrap for Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) on the mean delta.",
+			`Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at α=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,
+			"Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.",
+			"Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction."
+		],
+		alternatives: [
+			"Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.",
+			"Unpaired Mann–Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.",
+			"Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report — preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.",
+			"Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics."
+		],
+		whenNotToApply: [
+			`Paired N below 6 on any candidate — the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,
+			"Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.",
+			"Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.",
+			"Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) — pair exchangeability is violated."
+		],
+		citations: [
+			"Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289–300.",
+			"Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80–83.",
+			"Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.",
+			"Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130–134.",
+			"Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270–280. (ROPE.)"
+		]
+	};
+}
+function classifyCandidate(row, ctx) {
+	if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) return {
+		decision: "hold",
+		reason: "Comparator baseline."
+	};
+	if (ctx.gateDecision && !ctx.gateDecision.promote) return {
+		decision: "reject",
+		reason: `Held-out gate returned ${ctx.gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? "rejected"}: ${ctx.gateDecision.reason}`
+	};
+	if (!ctx.comparator) return {
+		decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? "hold" : "needs_more_data",
+		reason: "No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call."
+	};
+	if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < 6) return {
+		decision: "needs_more_data",
+		reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of 6 for any paired inference.`
+	};
+	const ci = ctx.posterior.ci;
+	if (ctx.split === "search") return {
+		decision: "hold",
+		reason: "Search-split evidence is descriptive; release decisions require matched holdout runs."
+	};
+	const degenerate = !Number.isFinite(ci.low) || !Number.isFinite(ci.high) || ci.low === ci.high;
+	if (!degenerate && ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) return {
+		decision: "equivalent",
+		reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`
+	};
+	const gainPositive = !degenerate && ci.low > 0;
+	if (!degenerate && ci.high < 0) return {
+		decision: "reject",
+		reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.`
+	};
+	if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) return {
+		decision: "needs_more_data",
+		reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need ≥ ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`
+	};
+	if (degenerate) return {
+		decision: "needs_more_data",
+		reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] has zero width — every resample was identical, so the interval carries no information about how far the estimate could be wrong and cannot support a promote or equivalence call.`
+	};
+	if (row.qValue !== null && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr && gainPositive) return {
+		decision: "promote",
+		reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} ≤ ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`
 	};
-	const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b);
-	const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b);
-	const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas);
-	const min = sortedDeltas[0];
-	const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1];
-	const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6);
-	const lo = -bound;
-	const width = (bound - lo) / binCount;
-	const bins = [];
-	for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) bins.push({
-		lo: lo + i * width,
-		hi: lo + (i + 1) * width,
-		count: 0
-	});
-	for (const d of deltas) {
-		let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width);
-		if (idx < 0) idx = 0;
-		if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1;
-		bins[idx].count += 1;
-	}
-	const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {
-		confidence: opts.confidence ?? .95,
-		resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2e3,
-		statistic: "median",
-		seed: opts.seed
-	});
 	return {
-		kind: "gain-distribution",
-		candidateId,
-		comparator,
-		split,
-		n,
-		unpairedCandidateN,
-		unpairedComparatorN,
-		bins,
-		median,
-		ci: {
-			low: ci.low,
-			high: ci.high
+		decision: "hold",
+		reason: `Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`
+	};
+}
+function buildRecommendation(candidates, ctx) {
+	const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator);
+	const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === "promote");
+	const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === "equivalent");
+	const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null;
+	const decision = bestPromote ? "promote" : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === "needs_more_data") ? "needs_more_data" : bestEquivalent ? "equivalent" : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === "hold") ? "hold" : "reject";
+	const rationale = [];
+	const risks = [];
+	const nextActions = [];
+	if (chosen) {
+		rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`);
+		if (chosen.gainCi) {
+			const probSummary = chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null ? `, Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}` : "";
+			rationale.push(`Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`);
 		}
+		if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`);
+	}
+	if (!ctx.comparator) {
+		risks.push("No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.");
+		nextActions.push("Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.");
+	}
+	if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {
+		risks.push("No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection.");
+		nextActions.push("Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it.");
+	}
+	if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {
+		risks.push("No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish \"equivalent\" from \"inconclusive\".");
+		nextActions.push("Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold.");
+	}
+	const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "needs_more_data");
+	if (inconclusive.length > 0) {
+		const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a);
+		risks.push(`${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`);
+		nextActions.push(`Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`);
+	}
+	const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "reject");
+	if (rejected.length > 0) risks.push(`${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`);
+	if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {
+		const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0];
+		risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`);
+		nextActions.push("Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.");
+	}
+	if (decision === "promote") nextActions.push("Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.");
+	else if (decision === "hold") nextActions.push("Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.");
+	else if (decision === "equivalent") nextActions.push("Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds — equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one.");
+	else if (decision === "reject") nextActions.push("Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate.");
+	return {
+		decision,
+		candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,
+		rationale,
+		risks,
+		nextActions
 	};
 }
+function buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, ctx) {
+	const lines = [];
+	const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator);
+	lines.push(`Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ""}.`);
+	lines.push(`Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ""}.`);
+	const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "promote").length;
+	const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "hold").length;
+	const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "equivalent").length;
+	const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "reject").length;
+	const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "needs_more_data").length;
+	lines.push(`Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`);
+	const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId);
+	if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(", ")}.`);
+	if (ctx.failureClusters) lines.push(`Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`);
+	lines.push(ctx.preregistrationHash ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}…` : "Analysis is post-hoc — no preregistration hash supplied.");
+	return lines;
+}
+function decisionWeight(decision) {
+	if (decision === "promote") return 5;
+	if (decision === "equivalent") return 4;
+	if (decision === "hold") return 3;
+	if (decision === "needs_more_data") return 2;
+	return 1;
+}
+//#endregion
+//#region src/statistics/effect-sizes.ts
 /**
-* Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative
-* regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank
-* exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.
+* Standardized effect sizes: Cohen's d family and Cliff's delta, with the
+* shared degenerate-input contract (null where the effect is undefined).
 */
-const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6;
+/**
+* Cohen's d — standardized effect size for two independent groups.
+* Positive d means group b has higher mean than group a.
+* Rule of thumb: |d| < 0.2 negligible, 0.2–0.5 small, 0.5–0.8 medium, > 0.8 large.
+*
+* Returns null where the standardized effect is undefined: fewer than two
+* observations in either group, or a zero pooled standard deviation with
+* unequal means. Null is NOT "no effect" — zero within-group spread across a
+* real mean gap is an unbounded effect, the opposite of negligible. Equal
+* means with zero spread is a genuine 0. Same contract as
+* {@link pairedCohensDz}.
+*/
+function cohensD(a, b) {
+	if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) return null;
+	const meanA = a.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / a.length;
+	const meanB = b.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / b.length;
+	const varA = a.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanA) ** 2, 0) / (a.length - 1);
+	const varB = b.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanB) ** 2, 0) / (b.length - 1);
+	const pooled = Math.sqrt(((a.length - 1) * varA + (b.length - 1) * varB) / (a.length + b.length - 2));
+	if (pooled === 0) return meanB === meanA ? 0 : null;
+	return (meanB - meanA) / pooled;
+}
+/**
+* Cohen's dz for paired observations: mean(after - before) divided by the
+* sample standard deviation of those within-pair deltas.
+*
+* Returns null when fewer than two pairs exist or a non-zero constant delta
+* has zero observed variance. In that case the standardized effect is
+* undefined, not an arbitrarily large finite number.
+*/
+function pairedCohensDz(before, after) {
+	if (before.length !== after.length) throw new ValidationError(`pairedCohensDz: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`);
+	if (before.length < 2) return null;
+	const deltas = before.map((value, index) => after[index] - value);
+	if (deltas.some((value) => !Number.isFinite(value))) throw new ValidationError("pairedCohensDz: all paired values must be finite");
+	const meanDelta = deltas.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / deltas.length;
+	const variance = deltas.reduce((sum, value) => sum + (value - meanDelta) ** 2, 0) / (deltas.length - 1);
+	const standardDeviation = Math.sqrt(variance);
+	const scale = Math.max(1, Math.abs(meanDelta), ...deltas.map(Math.abs));
+	if (standardDeviation <= Number.EPSILON * scale) return meanDelta === 0 ? 0 : null;
+	return meanDelta / standardDeviation;
+}
+/**
+* Cliff's delta — a non-parametric effect size for two independent samples.
+* `δ = (#(after > before) − #(after < before)) / (n_before · n_after)`,
+* ranging [-1, 1]. Positive ⇒ `after` tends to exceed `before` (improvement).
+*
+* Distribution-free counterpart to Cohen's d: no normality assumption, robust
+* to the bounded/skewed score distributions judges produce. Pairs with
+* `pairedBootstrap` / `wilcoxonSignedRank` for the non-parametric reporting
+* path. Returns 0 when either sample is empty.
+*/
+function cliffsDelta(before, after) {
+	const n = before.length * after.length;
+	if (n === 0) return 0;
+	let dominance = 0;
+	for (const a of after) for (const b of before) if (a > b) dominance += 1;
+	else if (a < b) dominance -= 1;
+	return dominance / n;
+}
+/**
+* Map a Cliff's delta to a qualitative magnitude using the standard
+* Romano et al. thresholds (|δ|): <0.147 negligible, <0.33 small,
+* <0.474 medium, else large.
+*/
+function interpretCliffs(delta) {
+	const d = Math.abs(delta);
+	if (d < .147) return "negligible";
+	if (d < .33) return "small";
+	if (d < .474) return "medium";
+	return "large";
+}
+//#endregion
+//#region src/summary-report-evidence.ts
+/** Matched split scores and paired statistical evidence for report consumers. */
+function pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, split) {
+	const scoreOf = (run) => {
+		const v = observedSplitScore(run, split);
+		return typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : void 0;
+	};
+	const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== void 0);
+	const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== void 0);
+	const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate);
+	return {
+		before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.baseline)),
+		after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.treatment)),
+		unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,
+		unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length
+	};
+}
 /**
 * Internal: paired posterior summary on (candidate − comparator) deltas.
 *
@@ -310,9 +456,226 @@ function stdev(xs, mean) {
 	for (const x of xs) sse += (x - mean) ** 2;
 	return Math.sqrt(sse / (xs.length - 1));
 }
+function medianOfSorted(sorted) {
+	if (sorted.length === 0) return 0;
+	const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
+	return sorted.length % 2 === 0 ? (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2 : sorted[mid];
+}
+//#endregion
+//#region src/summary-report-figures.ts
 /**
-* Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.
-*
+* Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +
+* bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)
+* BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + paired Cohen's dz versus that comparator.
+*/
+function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
+	const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
+	const confidence = opts.confidence ?? .95;
+	const fdr = opts.fdr ?? .05;
+	const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null;
+	const byCandidate = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	for (const r of runs) {
+		if (r.splitTag !== split) continue;
+		const v = observedSplitScore(r, split);
+		if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
+		const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? {
+			runs: [],
+			scores: []
+		};
+		bucket.runs.push(r);
+		bucket.scores.push(v);
+		byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket);
+	}
+	const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort();
+	const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : void 0;
+	const tentative = [];
+	for (const id of candidateIds) {
+		const bucket = byCandidate.get(id);
+		const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence);
+		let rawP = null;
+		let d = null;
+		let pairedN = null;
+		let unpairedCandidateN = null;
+		let unpairedComparatorN = null;
+		if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {
+			const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, split);
+			pairedN = paired.before.length;
+			unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN;
+			unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN;
+			if (paired.before.length >= 6) rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p;
+			d = pairedCohensDz(paired.before, paired.after);
+		}
+		tentative.push({
+			candidateId: id,
+			n: bucket.scores.length,
+			mean: ci.mean,
+			ciLow: ci.lower,
+			ciHigh: ci.upper,
+			qValue: rawP,
+			cohensD: d,
+			pairedN,
+			unpairedCandidateN,
+			unpairedComparatorN,
+			rawP
+		});
+	}
+	if (comparator) {
+		const idxs = [];
+		const ps = [];
+		for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {
+			const r = tentative[i];
+			if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue;
+			if (r.rawP === null || !Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue;
+			idxs.push(i);
+			ps.push(r.rawP);
+		}
+		if (ps.length > 0) {
+			const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr);
+			for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) tentative[idxs[k]].qValue = qValues[k];
+		}
+	}
+	const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest);
+	return {
+		rows,
+		comparator,
+		split,
+		markdown: renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split)
+	};
+}
+function renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split) {
+	const lines = [];
+	const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : "";
+	lines.push(`Summary Table — ${split} split${cmpLabel}`);
+	lines.push("");
+	lines.push("| Candidate | N | Pairs | Unpaired | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's dz |");
+	lines.push("|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|");
+	for (const r of rows) {
+		const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`;
+		const q = r.qValue !== null ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : "—";
+		const d = r.cohensD !== null ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "—";
+		const paired = r.pairedN ?? "—";
+		const unpaired = r.unpairedCandidateN === null || r.unpairedComparatorN === null ? "—" : `${r.unpairedCandidateN}/${r.unpairedComparatorN}`;
+		lines.push(`| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${paired} | ${unpaired} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`);
+	}
+	return lines.join("\n");
+}
+/**
+* Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by
+* candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict
+* for overlay.
+*/
+function paretoChart(runs, opts = {}) {
+	const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
+	const buckets = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	for (const r of runs) {
+		if (r.splitTag !== split) continue;
+		const v = observedSplitScore(r, split);
+		if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
+		if (r.costUsd === null) continue;
+		const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? {
+			cost: [],
+			quality: []
+		};
+		bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd);
+		bucket.quality.push(v);
+		buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket);
+	}
+	const points = [];
+	for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) points.push({
+		candidateId,
+		cost: mean(bucket.cost),
+		quality: mean(bucket.quality),
+		n: bucket.cost.length,
+		onFrontier: false,
+		gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId] ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]) : void 0
+	});
+	for (const p of points) p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p));
+	return {
+		kind: "pareto-cost-quality",
+		split,
+		axes: {
+			x: "costUsd",
+			y: "score"
+		},
+		points
+	};
+}
+function dominates(a, b) {
+	return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality);
+}
+function gateLabel(d) {
+	return d.promote ? "promote" : "reject";
+}
+/**
+* Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −
+* comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median
+* delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.
+*/
+function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
+	const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
+	const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11;
+	if (binCount < 1) throw new Error("gainHistogram: bins must be ≥ 1");
+	const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split), runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split), split);
+	const n = before.length;
+	if (n === 0) return {
+		kind: "gain-distribution",
+		candidateId,
+		comparator,
+		split,
+		n: 0,
+		unpairedCandidateN,
+		unpairedComparatorN,
+		bins: [],
+		median: null,
+		ci: null
+	};
+	const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b);
+	const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+	const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas);
+	const min = sortedDeltas[0];
+	const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1];
+	const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6);
+	const lo = -bound;
+	const width = (bound - lo) / binCount;
+	const bins = [];
+	for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) bins.push({
+		lo: lo + i * width,
+		hi: lo + (i + 1) * width,
+		count: 0
+	});
+	for (const d of deltas) {
+		let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width);
+		if (idx < 0) idx = 0;
+		if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1;
+		bins[idx].count += 1;
+	}
+	const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {
+		confidence: opts.confidence ?? .95,
+		resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2e3,
+		statistic: "median",
+		seed: opts.seed
+	});
+	return {
+		kind: "gain-distribution",
+		candidateId,
+		comparator,
+		split,
+		n,
+		unpairedCandidateN,
+		unpairedComparatorN,
+		bins,
+		median,
+		ci: {
+			low: ci.low,
+			high: ci.high
+		}
+	};
+}
+//#endregion
+//#region src/research-report.ts
+/**
+* Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.
+*
 * Composes:
 *   - `summaryTable`         marginal stats with BH-FDR-adjusted q-values
 *   - `paretoChart`           cost-vs-quality frontier with gate overlay
@@ -483,380 +846,7 @@ async function researchReport(runs, opts = {}) {
 		html
 	};
 }
-function buildMethodology(ctx) {
-	const assumptions = [
-		"Pairs are matched by (experimentId, scenarioId, seed); input order does not affect the comparison.",
-		"Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario — no mid-run distribution shift.",
-		`Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`
-	];
-	if (ctx.rope) assumptions.push(`The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of "no material difference."`);
-	if (ctx.comparator === null) assumptions.push("No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.");
-	return {
-		assumptions,
-		methods: [
-			"Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and paired Cohen's dz via summaryTable.",
-			"Paired evidence summarised with a frequentist bootstrap CI on the median delta and a Dirichlet-weight Bayesian bootstrap for Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) on the mean delta.",
-			`Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at α=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,
-			"Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.",
-			"Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction."
-		],
-		alternatives: [
-			"Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.",
-			"Unpaired Mann–Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.",
-			"Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report — preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.",
-			"Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics."
-		],
-		whenNotToApply: [
-			`Paired N below 6 on any candidate — the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,
-			"Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.",
-			"Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.",
-			"Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) — pair exchangeability is violated."
-		],
-		citations: [
-			"Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289–300.",
-			"Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80–83.",
-			"Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.",
-			"Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130–134.",
-			"Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270–280. (ROPE.)"
-		]
-	};
-}
-function formatRope(rope) {
-	return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`;
-}
-function classifyCandidate(row, ctx) {
-	if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) return {
-		decision: "hold",
-		reason: "Comparator baseline."
-	};
-	if (ctx.gateDecision && !ctx.gateDecision.promote) return {
-		decision: "reject",
-		reason: `Held-out gate returned ${ctx.gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? "rejected"}: ${ctx.gateDecision.reason}`
-	};
-	if (!ctx.comparator) return {
-		decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? "hold" : "needs_more_data",
-		reason: "No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call."
-	};
-	if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < 6) return {
-		decision: "needs_more_data",
-		reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of 6 for any paired inference.`
-	};
-	const ci = ctx.posterior.ci;
-	if (ctx.split === "search") return {
-		decision: "hold",
-		reason: "Search-split evidence is descriptive; release decisions require matched holdout runs."
-	};
-	const degenerate = !Number.isFinite(ci.low) || !Number.isFinite(ci.high) || ci.low === ci.high;
-	if (!degenerate && ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) return {
-		decision: "equivalent",
-		reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`
-	};
-	const gainPositive = !degenerate && ci.low > 0;
-	if (!degenerate && ci.high < 0) return {
-		decision: "reject",
-		reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.`
-	};
-	if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) return {
-		decision: "needs_more_data",
-		reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need ≥ ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`
-	};
-	if (degenerate) return {
-		decision: "needs_more_data",
-		reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] has zero width — every resample was identical, so the interval carries no information about how far the estimate could be wrong and cannot support a promote or equivalence call.`
-	};
-	if (row.qValue !== null && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr && gainPositive) return {
-		decision: "promote",
-		reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} ≤ ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`
-	};
-	return {
-		decision: "hold",
-		reason: `Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`
-	};
-}
-function buildRecommendation(candidates, ctx) {
-	const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator);
-	const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === "promote");
-	const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === "equivalent");
-	const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null;
-	const decision = bestPromote ? "promote" : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === "needs_more_data") ? "needs_more_data" : bestEquivalent ? "equivalent" : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === "hold") ? "hold" : "reject";
-	const rationale = [];
-	const risks = [];
-	const nextActions = [];
-	if (chosen) {
-		rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`);
-		if (chosen.gainCi) {
-			const probSummary = chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null ? `, Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}` : "";
-			rationale.push(`Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`);
-		}
-		if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`);
-	}
-	if (!ctx.comparator) {
-		risks.push("No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.");
-		nextActions.push("Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.");
-	}
-	if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {
-		risks.push("No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection.");
-		nextActions.push("Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it.");
-	}
-	if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {
-		risks.push("No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish \"equivalent\" from \"inconclusive\".");
-		nextActions.push("Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold.");
-	}
-	const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "needs_more_data");
-	if (inconclusive.length > 0) {
-		const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a);
-		risks.push(`${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`);
-		nextActions.push(`Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`);
-	}
-	const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "reject");
-	if (rejected.length > 0) risks.push(`${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`);
-	if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {
-		const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0];
-		risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`);
-		nextActions.push("Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.");
-	}
-	if (decision === "promote") nextActions.push("Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.");
-	else if (decision === "hold") nextActions.push("Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.");
-	else if (decision === "equivalent") nextActions.push("Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds — equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one.");
-	else if (decision === "reject") nextActions.push("Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate.");
-	return {
-		decision,
-		candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,
-		rationale,
-		risks,
-		nextActions
-	};
-}
-function buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, ctx) {
-	const lines = [];
-	const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator);
-	lines.push(`Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ""}.`);
-	lines.push(`Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ""}.`);
-	const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "promote").length;
-	const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "hold").length;
-	const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "equivalent").length;
-	const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "reject").length;
-	const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === "needs_more_data").length;
-	lines.push(`Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`);
-	const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId);
-	if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(", ")}.`);
-	if (ctx.failureClusters) lines.push(`Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`);
-	lines.push(ctx.preregistrationHash ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}…` : "Analysis is post-hoc — no preregistration hash supplied.");
-	return lines;
-}
-function renderResearchMarkdown(report) {
-	const lines = [];
-	lines.push(`# ${report.title}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`);
-	lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`);
-	lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? "not configured"}`);
-	lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : "not configured"}`);
-	lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \`${report.runFingerprint}\``);
-	lines.push(`**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\`${report.preregistrationHash}\`` : "none"}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("## Executive Summary");
-	lines.push("");
-	for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("## Recommendation");
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`);
-	lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? "N/A"}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("### Rationale");
-	lines.push("");
-	for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("### Risks");
-	lines.push("");
-	for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length ? report.recommendation.risks : ["No material report-level risks detected."]) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("### Next Actions");
-	lines.push("");
-	for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("## Candidate Decision Table");
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("| Candidate | Decision | Mean | Δ̄ | Pr(Δ>0) | q | dz | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |");
-	lines.push("|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|");
-	for (const c of report.candidates) {
-		const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? "-" : signed(c.meanDeltaVsComparator);
-		const prGt = c.prGreaterThanZero === null ? "-" : c.prGreaterThanZero.toFixed(3);
-		const q = c.qValue !== null ? c.qValue.toFixed(4) : "-";
-		const d = c.cohensD !== null ? c.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "-";
-		const gain = c.gainCi ? `[${fmt(c.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(c.gainCi.high)}]` : "-";
-		const mde = c.mde === null || !Number.isFinite(c.mde) ? "-" : fmt(c.mde);
-		lines.push(`| ${c.candidateId} | ${c.decision} | ${fmt(c.mean)} | ${delta} | ${prGt} | ${q} | ${d} | ${c.pairedN} | ${gain} | ${mde} | ${c.onParetoFrontier ? "yes" : "no"} | ${c.gate ?? "-"} |`);
-	}
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("## Statistical Summary");
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push(report.summary.markdown);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("## Methodology");
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("### Assumptions");
-	lines.push("");
-	for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("### Methods");
-	lines.push("");
-	for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("### Alternatives Considered");
-	lines.push("");
-	for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("### When NOT To Apply");
-	lines.push("");
-	for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("### Citations");
-	lines.push("");
-	for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`);
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("## Chart Specs");
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms.");
-	lines.push("");
-	lines.push("```json");
-	lines.push(JSON.stringify({
-		pareto: report.pareto,
-		gains: report.gains
-	}, null, 2));
-	lines.push("```");
-	if (report.failureClusters) {
-		lines.push("");
-		lines.push("## Failure Clusters");
-		lines.push("");
-		lines.push("| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |");
-		lines.push("|---|---:|---:|---|---|");
-		for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) lines.push(`| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? "-"} | ${escapePipes(c.exampleError ?? c.exampleRunId)} |`);
-	}
-	return lines.join("\n");
-}
-function renderResearchHtml(markdown, title) {
-	const body = markdownToHtml(markdown);
-	return [
-		"<!doctype html>",
-		"<html lang=\"en\">",
-		"<head>",
-		"<meta charset=\"utf-8\">",
-		"<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1\">",
-		`<title>${escapeHtml(title)}</title>`,
-		"<style>",
-		"body{font-family:Inter,ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;margin:0;color:#172026;background:#f7f8f8;}",
-		"main{max-width:1080px;margin:0 auto;padding:40px 24px 64px;background:#fff;min-height:100vh;}",
-		"h1{font-size:34px;line-height:1.15;margin:0 0 20px;}h2{margin-top:34px;border-top:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding-top:22px;}h3{margin-top:22px;}",
-		"p,li{line-height:1.55;}table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;margin:16px 0;font-size:14px;}th,td{border:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding:8px;text-align:left;}th{background:#eef2f2;}",
-		"code,pre{font-family:ui-monospace,SFMono-Regular,Menlo,monospace;}pre{overflow:auto;background:#111827;color:#f9fafb;padding:16px;border-radius:6px;}",
-		"</style>",
-		"</head>",
-		"<body><main>",
-		body,
-		"</main></body></html>"
-	].join("\n");
-}
-function markdownToHtml(markdown) {
-	const lines = markdown.split("\n");
-	const html = [];
-	let inList = false;
-	let inCode = false;
-	let code = [];
-	let table = [];
-	const flushList = () => {
-		if (inList) {
-			html.push("</ul>");
-			inList = false;
-		}
-	};
-	const flushTable = () => {
-		if (table.length === 0) return;
-		html.push(renderMarkdownTable(table));
-		table = [];
-	};
-	for (const line of lines) {
-		if (line.startsWith("```")) {
-			if (inCode) {
-				html.push(`<pre><code>${escapeHtml(code.join("\n"))}</code></pre>`);
-				code = [];
-				inCode = false;
-			} else {
-				flushList();
-				flushTable();
-				inCode = true;
-			}
-			continue;
-		}
-		if (inCode) {
-			code.push(line);
-			continue;
-		}
-		if (line.startsWith("|")) {
-			flushList();
-			table.push(line);
-			continue;
-		}
-		flushTable();
-		if (line.startsWith("- ")) {
-			if (!inList) {
-				html.push("<ul>");
-				inList = true;
-			}
-			html.push(`<li>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</li>`);
-			continue;
-		}
-		flushList();
-		if (line.startsWith("# ")) html.push(`<h1>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</h1>`);
-		else if (line.startsWith("## ")) html.push(`<h2>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(3))}</h2>`);
-		else if (line.startsWith("### ")) html.push(`<h3>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(4))}</h3>`);
-		else if (line.trim() === "") html.push("");
-		else html.push(`<p>${inlineMarkdown(line)}</p>`);
-	}
-	flushList();
-	flushTable();
-	return html.join("\n");
-}
-function renderMarkdownTable(lines) {
-	const rows = lines.filter((line) => !/^\|[-:\s|]+\|$/.test(line)).map((line) => line.slice(1, -1).split("|").map((cell) => inlineMarkdown(cell.trim())));
-	if (rows.length === 0) return "";
-	const [head, ...body] = rows;
-	return `<table><thead><tr>${head.map((cell) => `<th>${cell}</th>`).join("")}</tr></thead><tbody>${body.map((row) => `<tr>${row.map((cell) => `<td>${cell}</td>`).join("")}</tr>`).join("\n")}</tbody></table>`;
-}
-function inlineMarkdown(s) {
-	return escapeHtml(s).replace(/\*\*([^*]+)\*\*/g, "<strong>$1</strong>");
-}
-function escapeHtml(s) {
-	return s.replace(/&/g, "&amp;").replace(/</g, "&lt;").replace(/>/g, "&gt;").replace(/"/g, "&quot;");
-}
-function escapePipes(s) {
-	return s.replace(/\|/g, "\\|");
-}
-function decisionWeight(decision) {
-	if (decision === "promote") return 5;
-	if (decision === "equivalent") return 4;
-	if (decision === "hold") return 3;
-	if (decision === "needs_more_data") return 2;
-	return 1;
-}
-function signed(x) {
-	return `${x >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${fmt(x)}`;
-}
-function avg(xs) {
-	if (xs.length === 0) return NaN;
-	return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length;
-}
-function medianOfSorted(sorted) {
-	if (sorted.length === 0) return 0;
-	const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
-	return sorted.length % 2 === 0 ? (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2 : sorted[mid];
-}
-function fmt(x) {
-	if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x);
-	return x.toFixed(4);
-}
 //#endregion
-export { summaryTable as a, researchReport as i, gainHistogram as n, paretoChart as r, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR as t };
+export { cliffsDelta as a, pairedCohensDz as c, summaryTable as i, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR as l, gainHistogram as n, cohensD as o, paretoChart as r, interpretCliffs as s, researchReport as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=summary-report-DtdRucM0.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=summary-report-BsXJoYX5.js.map