@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.216.0 → 0.217.1

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (553) hide show
  1. package/CHANGELOG.md +141 -57
  2. package/README.md +2 -2
  3. package/dist/adapters/http.d.ts +3 -3
  4. package/dist/{agent-profile-CIA2Atnt.d.ts → agent-profile-DTt8uGP9.d.ts} +5 -18
  5. package/dist/agent-profile-DTt8uGP9.d.ts.map +1 -0
  6. package/dist/{agent-profile-cell-BYc0bxsL.js → agent-profile-cell-B1V1gUZs.js} +4 -53
  7. package/dist/agent-profile-cell-B1V1gUZs.js.map +1 -0
  8. package/dist/{agent-profile-cell-BNp-Js9F.d.ts → agent-profile-cell-BcpFbNd5.d.ts} +2 -22
  9. package/dist/agent-profile-cell-BcpFbNd5.d.ts.map +1 -0
  10. package/dist/{agreement-irr-DsTURxdr.js → agreement-irr-BhAqjluA.js} +5 -5
  11. package/dist/agreement-irr-BhAqjluA.js.map +1 -0
  12. package/dist/analyst/index.d.ts +37 -170
  13. package/dist/analyst/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  14. package/dist/analyst/index.js +17 -192
  15. package/dist/analyst/index.js.map +1 -1
  16. package/dist/{analyze-runs-3xpby3p2.js → analyze-runs-DqPJaJ4X.js} +763 -555
  17. package/dist/analyze-runs-DqPJaJ4X.js.map +1 -0
  18. package/dist/{analyze-runs-CSDAh8A7.d.ts → analyze-runs-DyeNcenW.d.ts} +18 -16
  19. package/dist/analyze-runs-DyeNcenW.d.ts.map +1 -0
  20. package/dist/authenticity/index.d.ts +0 -23
  21. package/dist/authenticity/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  22. package/dist/authenticity/index.js +1 -34
  23. package/dist/authenticity/index.js.map +1 -1
  24. package/dist/{benchmark-command-CByl9dxG.js → benchmark-command-xQK8nOI6.js} +591 -109
  25. package/dist/benchmark-command-xQK8nOI6.js.map +1 -0
  26. package/dist/benchmarks/index.d.ts +5 -6
  27. package/dist/benchmarks/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  28. package/dist/benchmarks/index.js +4 -4
  29. package/dist/benchmarks/index.js.map +1 -1
  30. package/dist/builder-eval/index.d.ts +3 -3
  31. package/dist/builder-eval/index.js +2 -2
  32. package/dist/builder-eval/index.js.map +1 -1
  33. package/dist/campaign/index.d.ts +8 -8
  34. package/dist/campaign/index.js +15 -15
  35. package/dist/{campaign-BQ-Jujuj.js → campaign-CJGkxAQ6.js} +256 -765
  36. package/dist/campaign-CJGkxAQ6.js.map +1 -0
  37. package/dist/{campaign-evidence-OcUciD-N.js → campaign-evidence-CQYw8_0H.js} +10 -18
  38. package/dist/{campaign-evidence-OcUciD-N.js.map → campaign-evidence-CQYw8_0H.js.map} +1 -1
  39. package/dist/{canonical-BsZVgBhW.js → canonical-Dq2hOQ8L.js} +2 -2
  40. package/dist/{canonical-BsZVgBhW.js.map → canonical-Dq2hOQ8L.js.map} +1 -1
  41. package/dist/cell-spend-DEWR3nj-.js +90 -0
  42. package/dist/cell-spend-DEWR3nj-.js.map +1 -0
  43. package/dist/{chat-client-DthPOYGd.js → chat-client-ldqxYYTN.js} +2 -2
  44. package/dist/{chat-client-DthPOYGd.js.map → chat-client-ldqxYYTN.js.map} +1 -1
  45. package/dist/{chat-json-call-BrKsyspg.js → chat-json-call-DavzexSp.js} +3 -2
  46. package/dist/chat-json-call-DavzexSp.js.map +1 -0
  47. package/dist/{claim-BXcZw-jo.js → claim-BPVuyHuy.js} +4 -4
  48. package/dist/claim-BPVuyHuy.js.map +1 -0
  49. package/dist/cli.js +113 -12
  50. package/dist/cli.js.map +1 -1
  51. package/dist/{client-BzL9niqi.d.ts → client-hwo3cJjR.d.ts} +3 -16
  52. package/dist/client-hwo3cJjR.d.ts.map +1 -0
  53. package/dist/{cluster-bootstrap-B3JywQQn.js → cluster-bootstrap-DEwwhl0C.js} +3 -3
  54. package/dist/{cluster-bootstrap-B3JywQQn.js.map → cluster-bootstrap-DEwwhl0C.js.map} +1 -1
  55. package/dist/{produced-state-ZCtDBxAE.js → completion-verifier-B_jw6C9p.js} +9 -64
  56. package/dist/completion-verifier-B_jw6C9p.js.map +1 -0
  57. package/dist/contract/index.d.ts +13 -13
  58. package/dist/contract/index.js +1041 -1473
  59. package/dist/contract/index.js.map +1 -1
  60. package/dist/{cost-ledger-D2FnJPBF.js → cost-ledger-D0352Z4d.js} +832 -817
  61. package/dist/cost-ledger-D0352Z4d.js.map +1 -0
  62. package/dist/{cost-ledger-CO7UyEcQ.d.ts → cost-ledger-Jk62OBfF.d.ts} +12 -47
  63. package/dist/cost-ledger-Jk62OBfF.d.ts.map +1 -0
  64. package/dist/dataset-DQqhOCPt.d.ts.map +1 -1
  65. package/dist/{default-registry-Cn1LQ2Ve.js → default-registry-ClYjq3QE.js} +8 -11
  66. package/dist/default-registry-ClYjq3QE.js.map +1 -0
  67. package/dist/{default-registry-BrWh62zf.d.ts → default-registry-DXgLmoDI.d.ts} +7 -50
  68. package/dist/default-registry-DXgLmoDI.d.ts.map +1 -0
  69. package/dist/{define-agent-eval-Ch3MWX6k.js → define-agent-eval-BDxNlP3D.js} +10 -10
  70. package/dist/define-agent-eval-BDxNlP3D.js.map +1 -0
  71. package/dist/{define-agent-eval-CEWkX5wZ.d.ts → define-agent-eval-BIkH_gAR.d.ts} +9 -9
  72. package/dist/define-agent-eval-BIkH_gAR.d.ts.map +1 -0
  73. package/dist/{descriptive-CnU8Yq29.js → descriptive-CVNy48rR.js} +2 -2
  74. package/dist/{descriptive-CnU8Yq29.js.map → descriptive-CVNy48rR.js.map} +1 -1
  75. package/dist/diagnosis/index.d.ts +4 -14
  76. package/dist/diagnosis/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  77. package/dist/diagnosis/index.js +67 -28
  78. package/dist/diagnosis/index.js.map +1 -1
  79. package/dist/{dspy-rlm-engine-D-KX_e64.js → dspy-rlm-engine-DhdCr1Dc.js} +5 -10
  80. package/dist/dspy-rlm-engine-DhdCr1Dc.js.map +1 -0
  81. package/dist/{emitter-HcCmFQl_.d.ts → emitter-DABYYTcH.d.ts} +5 -5
  82. package/dist/emitter-DABYYTcH.d.ts.map +1 -0
  83. package/dist/emitter-DbMXUIVP.js.map +1 -1
  84. package/dist/{engine-C_zNWfM8.d.ts → engine-BvZ0R-36.d.ts} +18 -22
  85. package/dist/engine-BvZ0R-36.d.ts.map +1 -0
  86. package/dist/{equal-terms-Blx9Zk5I.js → equal-terms-DbPGcVtI.js} +2 -2
  87. package/dist/equal-terms-DbPGcVtI.js.map +1 -0
  88. package/dist/{errors-Dngq5h35.js → errors-BcOs5MKW.js} +6 -8
  89. package/dist/{errors-Dngq5h35.js.map → errors-BcOs5MKW.js.map} +1 -1
  90. package/dist/{eval-campaign-4byTtqrf.js → eval-campaign-BLEfBGbA.js} +6 -6
  91. package/dist/{eval-campaign-4byTtqrf.js.map → eval-campaign-BLEfBGbA.js.map} +1 -1
  92. package/dist/{evaluation-Cn2dRZIz.d.ts → evaluation-jTjC_QQD.d.ts} +8 -8
  93. package/dist/evaluation-jTjC_QQD.d.ts.map +1 -0
  94. package/dist/evaluation.d.ts +2 -2
  95. package/dist/evaluation.js +1 -1
  96. package/dist/evaluation.js.map +1 -1
  97. package/dist/{exact-types-CD0lf5Qd.d.ts → exact-types-CflbJ9f3.d.ts} +2 -2
  98. package/dist/{exact-types-CD0lf5Qd.d.ts.map → exact-types-CflbJ9f3.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  99. package/dist/{exec-ChJ6d5if.js → exec-CpbtOXVt.js} +2 -24
  100. package/dist/{exec-ChJ6d5if.js.map → exec-CpbtOXVt.js.map} +1 -1
  101. package/dist/execution-tracks-CpgFPpS5.js.map +1 -1
  102. package/dist/experiment/index.d.ts +331 -33
  103. package/dist/experiment/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  104. package/dist/experiment/index.js +303 -101
  105. package/dist/experiment/index.js.map +1 -1
  106. package/dist/{exporters-X4xwla8A.js → exporters-Cl6IeNAu.js} +3 -3
  107. package/dist/exporters-Cl6IeNAu.js.map +1 -0
  108. package/dist/{exporters-ChTnR90l.d.ts → exporters-Dk3oEbK_.d.ts} +2 -4
  109. package/dist/{exporters-ChTnR90l.d.ts.map → exporters-Dk3oEbK_.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  110. package/dist/{external-optimizer-process-nnsY5D_4.js → external-optimizer-process-KVFGvYX1.js} +4 -3
  111. package/dist/external-optimizer-process-KVFGvYX1.js.map +1 -0
  112. package/dist/{external-optimizer-subprocess-DcerlZSG.js → external-optimizer-subprocess-XIHBOSKt.js} +551 -553
  113. package/dist/external-optimizer-subprocess-XIHBOSKt.js.map +1 -0
  114. package/dist/{extract-usage-BrnzRJ6H.js → extract-usage-BZLU01kR.js} +2 -23
  115. package/dist/{extract-usage-BrnzRJ6H.js.map → extract-usage-BZLU01kR.js.map} +1 -1
  116. package/dist/{failure-cluster-CbgEDcFJ.d.ts → failure-cluster-DN0t63Z0.d.ts} +4 -43
  117. package/dist/failure-cluster-DN0t63Z0.d.ts.map +1 -0
  118. package/dist/{failure-taxonomy-CjabTATj.js → failure-taxonomy-Bx5oWqaW.js} +2 -19
  119. package/dist/{failure-taxonomy-CjabTATj.js.map → failure-taxonomy-Bx5oWqaW.js.map} +1 -1
  120. package/dist/{feedback-trajectory-DkaDj0dj.d.ts → feedback-trajectory-BWmhRBGu.d.ts} +8 -13
  121. package/dist/feedback-trajectory-BWmhRBGu.d.ts.map +1 -0
  122. package/dist/{semantic-concept-judge-zQBG9hHU.js → findings-store-BMVQtEsm.js} +13 -255
  123. package/dist/findings-store-BMVQtEsm.js.map +1 -0
  124. package/dist/fuzz.d.ts +20 -63
  125. package/dist/fuzz.d.ts.map +1 -1
  126. package/dist/fuzz.js +62 -108
  127. package/dist/fuzz.js.map +1 -1
  128. package/dist/{hf-dataset-BR2yhuNn.js → hf-dataset-D9f7-oX7.js} +4 -24
  129. package/dist/hf-dataset-D9f7-oX7.js.map +1 -0
  130. package/dist/hosted/index.d.ts +2 -2
  131. package/dist/hosted/index.js +2 -2
  132. package/dist/{index-DHKEAv3s.d.ts → index-9jJ2fKSX.d.ts} +2 -64
  133. package/dist/index-9jJ2fKSX.d.ts.map +1 -0
  134. package/dist/{index-oQ4aHziK.d.ts → index-BLGqZ81N.d.ts} +11 -16
  135. package/dist/{index-oQ4aHziK.d.ts.map → index-BLGqZ81N.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  136. package/dist/{index-DlH0Y9gI.d.ts → index-BiT6RtNH.d.ts} +31 -43
  137. package/dist/index-BiT6RtNH.d.ts.map +1 -0
  138. package/dist/{index-Ch9VxCpK.d.ts → index-CX-GAUpw.d.ts} +4 -8
  139. package/dist/index-CX-GAUpw.d.ts.map +1 -0
  140. package/dist/{index-CPJJr98o.d.ts → index-CiRwLv2R.d.ts} +5 -68
  141. package/dist/index-CiRwLv2R.d.ts.map +1 -0
  142. package/dist/{index-NvGBiO8H.d.ts → index-ZuWx52WG.d.ts} +266 -495
  143. package/dist/index-ZuWx52WG.d.ts.map +1 -0
  144. package/dist/index.d.ts +2256 -2165
  145. package/dist/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  146. package/dist/index.js +514 -1192
  147. package/dist/index.js.map +1 -1
  148. package/dist/{integrity-BV1ZDf42.js → integrity-DOd9Q86O.js} +7 -12
  149. package/dist/integrity-DOd9Q86O.js.map +1 -0
  150. package/dist/{integrity-BvnVARVl.js → integrity-W4CADcFc.js} +3 -7
  151. package/dist/{integrity-BvnVARVl.js.map → integrity-W4CADcFc.js.map} +1 -1
  152. package/dist/{integrity-CCAxGVK6.d.ts → integrity-_qgZLA5p.d.ts} +4 -6
  153. package/dist/{integrity-CCAxGVK6.d.ts.map → integrity-_qgZLA5p.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  154. package/dist/{internal-CRHwS9iz.js → internal-BTK91Bqt.js} +3 -3
  155. package/dist/{internal-CRHwS9iz.js.map → internal-BTK91Bqt.js.map} +1 -1
  156. package/dist/interval-Dq9gt7jx.js +219 -0
  157. package/dist/interval-Dq9gt7jx.js.map +1 -0
  158. package/dist/interval-ohuOJurX.d.ts +47 -0
  159. package/dist/interval-ohuOJurX.d.ts.map +1 -0
  160. package/dist/{journal-DvKCvjty.js → journal-CR4QikYp.js} +110 -110
  161. package/dist/journal-CR4QikYp.js.map +1 -0
  162. package/dist/json-BhdsJaOQ.js +111 -0
  163. package/dist/json-BhdsJaOQ.js.map +1 -0
  164. package/dist/{judge-calibration-N44V04Se.js → judge-calibration-BkXMIWA4.js} +3 -3
  165. package/dist/{judge-calibration-N44V04Se.js.map → judge-calibration-BkXMIWA4.js.map} +1 -1
  166. package/dist/{judge-gate-B1qYnkpi.js → judge-gate-Co5tuh57.js} +4 -27
  167. package/dist/judge-gate-Co5tuh57.js.map +1 -0
  168. package/dist/{judge-gate-DNcUrRFA.d.ts → judge-gate-DsL0yFcb.d.ts} +9 -10
  169. package/dist/judge-gate-DsL0yFcb.d.ts.map +1 -0
  170. package/dist/{kind-factory-CbZ-6tvu.js → kind-factory-Gy4fXixd.js} +88 -17
  171. package/dist/kind-factory-Gy4fXixd.js.map +1 -0
  172. package/dist/ledger-core/index.d.ts +2 -2
  173. package/dist/ledger-core/index.js +4 -4
  174. package/dist/{ledger-core-B2hahzrt.js → ledger-core-DrJhbms9.js} +5 -84
  175. package/dist/ledger-core-DrJhbms9.js.map +1 -0
  176. package/dist/{llm-client-DQveoxSM.js → llm-client-BshCREn6.js} +90 -219
  177. package/dist/llm-client-BshCREn6.js.map +1 -0
  178. package/dist/{llm-judge-PXV7Xljl.js → llm-judge-C8jMTNNG.js} +501 -931
  179. package/dist/llm-judge-C8jMTNNG.js.map +1 -0
  180. package/dist/matrix/index.d.ts +4 -4
  181. package/dist/matrix/index.js +3 -2
  182. package/dist/{matrix-_BV9-Lk5.js → matrix-B8l-Nsxd.js} +7 -96
  183. package/dist/matrix-B8l-Nsxd.js.map +1 -0
  184. package/dist/{matrix-CHMiebFx.d.ts → matrix-DHe-dwVJ.d.ts} +10 -19
  185. package/dist/matrix-DHe-dwVJ.d.ts.map +1 -0
  186. package/dist/{paired-tests-jbwPdSz5.js → mean-BbA_JCzW.js} +45 -5
  187. package/dist/mean-BbA_JCzW.js.map +1 -0
  188. package/dist/meta-eval/index.d.ts +6 -6
  189. package/dist/meta-eval/index.js +10 -10
  190. package/dist/meta-eval/index.js.map +1 -1
  191. package/dist/metrics-BKaPBtIG.js.map +1 -1
  192. package/dist/mint-BRZXuwRi.d.ts +81 -0
  193. package/dist/mint-BRZXuwRi.d.ts.map +1 -0
  194. package/dist/{mint-Csor1BLJ.js → mint-zszyYlpA.js} +4 -4
  195. package/dist/{mint-Csor1BLJ.js.map → mint-zszyYlpA.js.map} +1 -1
  196. package/dist/{multi-layer-verifier-BUaQ4C17.d.ts → multi-layer-verifier-DEgMUk6v.d.ts} +2 -2
  197. package/dist/{multi-layer-verifier-BUaQ4C17.d.ts.map → multi-layer-verifier-DEgMUk6v.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  198. package/dist/{multiplicity-D9cjmStq.js → multiplicity-Sg0U7h8j.js} +2 -2
  199. package/dist/{multiplicity-D9cjmStq.js.map → multiplicity-Sg0U7h8j.js.map} +1 -1
  200. package/dist/multishot/golden/index.d.ts +1 -23
  201. package/dist/multishot/golden/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  202. package/dist/multishot/golden/index.js +5 -8
  203. package/dist/multishot/golden/index.js.map +1 -1
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  208. package/dist/nonnegative-number-DvdMxg_f.js +9 -0
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  210. package/dist/openapi.json +114 -10
  211. package/dist/{otel-spans-C8YIJWy1.js → otel-spans-CdN909k1.js} +3 -3
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  213. package/dist/{paired-arms-DzKn0TfY.js → paired-arms-Ct4LTKc1.js} +32 -9
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  215. package/dist/{paired-binary-Q36bhn2R.js → paired-binary-B_nejA44.js} +3 -36
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  217. package/dist/{paired-promotion-decision-DPKz8ZnF.d.ts → paired-promotion-decision-CQMJ5xGN.d.ts} +2 -34
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  221. package/dist/{search-kernel-BztlERLv.js → pareto-BzsxidFD.js} +883 -861
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  223. package/dist/pipelines/index.d.ts +16 -19
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  231. package/dist/{prime-protocol-DcAK9pC8.js → prime-protocol-BFgGrEMP.js} +3 -3
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  233. package/dist/{prime-protocol-CEE4BR9N.d.ts → prime-protocol-BWG2DQIk.d.ts} +4 -22
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  235. package/dist/profile-cell.d.ts +2 -2
  236. package/dist/profile-cell.js +2 -2
  237. package/dist/{release-confidence-BK2QCB5M.d.ts → promotion-gate-DaY95yU6.d.ts} +105 -106
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  239. package/dist/{promotion-policy-CWW35UWq.js → promotion-policy-6A8osGr_.js} +4 -4
  240. package/dist/{promotion-policy-CWW35UWq.js.map → promotion-policy-6A8osGr_.js.map} +1 -1
  241. package/dist/{proposal-findings-BZiMTzAF.js → proposal-findings-BbWidvUk.js} +3 -3
  242. package/dist/proposal-findings-BbWidvUk.js.map +1 -0
  243. package/dist/{query-B1D1qp2Z.js → query-B_RZ36an.js} +5 -5
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  249. package/dist/{raw-provider-sink-rB2DYxr6.js → raw-provider-sink-75w4FWBj.js} +2 -2
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  251. package/dist/{redact-Cveoq6fJ.d.ts → redact-DXdlFb_U.d.ts} +4 -21
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- {"version":3,"file":"matrix-_BV9-Lk5.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/matrix/cell-spend.ts","../src/matrix/aggregation.ts","../src/matrix/runner.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Spend carrier for a cell that fails after it has already spent money.\n *\n * `runCell` reports what a cell cost by returning a `CellResult`. A throw\n * carries no result, so the runner cannot know what the cell spent before it\n * failed: the cumulative sum the cost ceiling reads, and `totalCostUsd`, both\n * miss that money. A throw that carries a `CellSpend` closes the gap — the\n * runner bills the failed cell for the spend the carrier declares, and records\n * a cell that declared nothing as `uncaptured` instead of a zero that reads\n * like \"this cell spent nothing\".\n *\n * The carrier is read structurally, never by `instanceof`, so a throw that\n * crosses a package or realm boundary still bills.\n */\n\n/** Property key the carrier occupies on a thrown object. Stable across\n * versions — two copies of this package must agree on it. */\nconst CELL_SPEND_KEY = '__agentEvalCellSpend'\n\n/** Money and wall time a cell consumed before it threw. */\nexport interface CellSpend {\n /** KNOWN subtotal in USD. When `kind` is `uncaptured` the cell spent this\n * much AND an unknown amount more, so the value must not be read as the\n * cell's total. */\n costUsd: number\n /** Wall time the cell consumed before the throw, in milliseconds. */\n durationMs: number\n /** `observed` = provider-reported amounts, `estimated` = computed from token\n * prices, `uncaptured` = `costUsd` is a subtotal and part of the spend\n * could not be measured. */\n kind: 'observed' | 'estimated' | 'uncaptured'\n}\n\n/**\n * Return `error` carrying `spend`, for a throw site inside `runCell`:\n * `throw withCellSpend(err, { costUsd, durationMs, kind })`.\n *\n * A value that cannot hold the carrier — a thrown string or number, or a\n * frozen, sealed, or otherwise non-extensible object — is wrapped in an\n * `Error` that keeps the original as `cause`, so the spend is never dropped.\n * A later call overwrites an earlier carrier — the outer frame knows more\n * than the inner one.\n *\n * Throws `TypeError` on a non-finite or negative amount. A poisoned amount\n * would reach `cumulativeCost` and disable the cost ceiling for the whole run,\n * because `NaN >= ceiling` is false.\n */\nexport function withCellSpend(error: unknown, spend: CellSpend): unknown {\n assertAmount(spend.costUsd, 'costUsd')\n assertAmount(spend.durationMs, 'durationMs')\n if (spend.kind !== 'observed' && spend.kind !== 'estimated' && spend.kind !== 'uncaptured') {\n throw new TypeError(\n `withCellSpend: kind must be observed, estimated or uncaptured, received ${String(spend.kind)}`,\n )\n }\n const carrier: CellSpend = {\n costUsd: spend.costUsd,\n durationMs: spend.durationMs,\n kind: spend.kind,\n }\n if (typeof error === 'object' && error !== null && attach(error, carrier)) return error\n // A primitive cannot hold a property, and a frozen or sealed object refuses\n // one. Carry the spend on a fresh Error that keeps the original as `cause`\n // rather than lose it — a dropped carrier bills the cell as uncaptured,\n // which is the under-billing this module exists to prevent.\n const wrapper = new Error(`cell failed: ${messageOf(error)}`, { cause: error })\n attach(wrapper, carrier)\n return wrapper\n}\n\n/** True when the carrier landed. `defineProperty` throws on a non-extensible\n * target, so the caller must be able to fall back. */\nfunction attach(target: object, carrier: CellSpend): boolean {\n try {\n Object.defineProperty(target, CELL_SPEND_KEY, {\n value: carrier,\n enumerable: false,\n configurable: true,\n writable: true,\n })\n return true\n } catch {\n return false\n }\n}\n\nfunction messageOf(error: unknown): string {\n if (error instanceof Error) return error.message\n return String(error)\n}\n\n/** Read the spend a thrown value carries. `undefined` when the value carries\n * none, or carries one that does not satisfy `CellSpend` — the runner records\n * both as `uncaptured`. */\nexport function readCellSpend(error: unknown): CellSpend | undefined {\n if (typeof error !== 'object' || error === null) return undefined\n const raw = (error as Record<string, unknown>)[CELL_SPEND_KEY]\n if (typeof raw !== 'object' || raw === null) return undefined\n const candidate = raw as Record<string, unknown>\n if (!isAmount(candidate.costUsd) || !isAmount(candidate.durationMs)) return undefined\n const kind = candidate.kind\n if (kind !== 'observed' && kind !== 'estimated' && kind !== 'uncaptured') return undefined\n return { costUsd: candidate.costUsd, durationMs: candidate.durationMs, kind }\n}\n\n/** A number the matrix can add to a running cost or duration: finite and not\n * negative. Anything else would poison a sum the cost ceiling reads. */\nexport function isAmount(value: unknown): value is number {\n return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0\n}\n\nfunction assertAmount(value: number, field: string): void {\n if (!isAmount(value)) {\n throw new TypeError(\n `withCellSpend: ${field} must be a finite number >= 0, received ${String(value)}`,\n )\n }\n}\n","/**\n * Per-axis aggregation of cell runs into `AxisSummary` rows.\n *\n * Pure: consumes the final `cells: [{cell, runs}]` array and returns the\n * `byAxis` table. Error runs contribute 0 to passRate and meanScore. Cost and\n * duration always count — the budget was spent regardless. A run whose cost is\n * a subtotal rather than a total raises `costUncapturedCells` for its bucket,\n * so a per-axis cost row says when it under-counts.\n */\n\nimport { interpolatedQuantile } from '../math/quantile'\nimport type { AxisSummary, CellResult, MatrixAxis, MatrixCell, MatrixResult } from './types'\n\ninterface Row<Output> {\n cell: MatrixCell\n result: CellResult<Output>\n}\n\nfunction flattenRuns<Output>(cells: MatrixResult<Output>['cells']): Row<Output>[] {\n const rows: Row<Output>[] = []\n for (const { cell, runs } of cells) {\n for (const result of runs) rows.push({ cell, result })\n }\n return rows\n}\n\nfunction quantile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n return sorted.length ? interpolatedQuantile(sorted, q) : 0\n}\n\nexport function summariseRows<Output>(\n rows: Row<Output>[],\n axisName: string,\n axisValue: string,\n): AxisSummary {\n if (rows.length === 0) {\n return {\n axisName,\n axisValue,\n cells: 0,\n passRate: 0,\n meanScore: 0,\n p50Score: 0,\n p90Score: 0,\n totalCostUsd: 0,\n costUncapturedCells: 0,\n meanDurationMs: 0,\n }\n }\n let pass = 0\n let scoreSum = 0\n let costSum = 0\n let durSum = 0\n let costUncapturedCells = 0\n const scores: number[] = []\n for (const { result } of rows) {\n const errored = result.error !== undefined\n const score = errored ? 0 : result.verdict.score\n const valid = !errored && result.verdict.valid\n if (valid) pass++\n scoreSum += score\n scores.push(score)\n costSum += result.costUsd\n durSum += result.durationMs\n if (result.costProvenance?.kind === 'uncaptured') costUncapturedCells++\n }\n scores.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n return {\n axisName,\n axisValue,\n cells: rows.length,\n passRate: pass / rows.length,\n meanScore: scoreSum / rows.length,\n p50Score: quantile(scores, 0.5),\n p90Score: quantile(scores, 0.9),\n totalCostUsd: costSum,\n costUncapturedCells,\n meanDurationMs: durSum / rows.length,\n }\n}\n\nfunction bucketBy<Output>(\n rows: Row<Output>[],\n axisName: string,\n labelFor: (id: string) => string,\n): Record<string, AxisSummary> {\n const buckets = new Map<string, Row<Output>[]>()\n for (const row of rows) {\n const slot = row.cell.axes[axisName]\n if (!slot) continue\n const id = slot.id\n let arr = buckets.get(id)\n if (!arr) {\n arr = []\n buckets.set(id, arr)\n }\n arr.push(row)\n }\n const out: Record<string, AxisSummary> = {}\n // Sorted keys for deterministic JSON serialisation.\n for (const id of [...buckets.keys()].sort()) {\n out[id] = summariseRows(buckets.get(id) as Row<Output>[], axisName, labelFor(id))\n }\n return out\n}\n\nexport function buildByAxis<Output>(\n cells: MatrixResult<Output>['cells'],\n axes: MatrixAxis<unknown>[],\n aggregateBy: string[],\n): Record<string, Record<string, AxisSummary>> {\n const rows = flattenRuns(cells)\n const byName = new Map(axes.map((a) => [a.name, a]))\n const byAxis: Record<string, Record<string, AxisSummary>> = {}\n for (const name of aggregateBy) {\n const axis = byName.get(name)\n const labelFor = (id: string): string => {\n if (!axis?.label) return id\n const found = axis.values.find((v) => v.id === id)\n if (!found) return id\n return axis.label(found.value, id)\n }\n byAxis[name] = bucketBy(rows, name, labelFor)\n }\n return byAxis\n}\n","/**\n * N-axis cartesian runner.\n *\n * Expansion order: cartesian over `axes` in declared order, then `reps` as the\n * inner-most dim → `ordinal = (cartIdx * reps) + rep`. The returned\n * `cells[]` is sorted by `ordinal` so concurrent execution does not reorder\n * the output.\n *\n * Scheduling is a sliding window of in-flight promises capped at\n * `maxConcurrency`. The window stops admitting new cells when the cost\n * ceiling trips or the abort signal fires; in-flight cells finish.\n */\n\nimport { buildByAxis } from './aggregation'\nimport { isAmount, readCellSpend } from './cell-spend'\nimport type {\n CellResult,\n CostProvenance,\n MatrixAxis,\n MatrixCell,\n MatrixResult,\n RunAgentMatrixOptions,\n} from './types'\n\ninterface BaseCell {\n axes: Record<string, { id: string; value: unknown }>\n}\n\nfunction cartesian(axes: MatrixAxis<unknown>[]): BaseCell[] {\n // Empty axes (`values=[]`) collapse the whole product to zero cells. An\n // empty `axes` array yields a single empty-axes cell — degenerate but\n // valid (caller is iterating only reps).\n if (axes.length === 0) return [{ axes: {} }]\n for (const a of axes) if (a.values.length === 0) return []\n const out: BaseCell[] = []\n const idx = new Array(axes.length).fill(0)\n while (true) {\n const slot: Record<string, { id: string; value: unknown }> = {}\n for (let i = 0; i < axes.length; i++) {\n const axis = axes[i] as MatrixAxis<unknown>\n const v = axis.values[idx[i] as number] as { id: string; value: unknown }\n slot[axis.name] = { id: v.id, value: v.value }\n }\n out.push({ axes: slot })\n // Increment like an odometer, left-most axis is fastest.\n let i = 0\n while (i < axes.length) {\n const next = (idx[i] as number) + 1\n const axis = axes[i] as MatrixAxis<unknown>\n if (next < axis.values.length) {\n idx[i] = next\n break\n }\n idx[i] = 0\n i++\n }\n if (i === axes.length) break\n }\n return out\n}\n\nfunction makeMatrixId(): string {\n // Stable id-like string: time + 8 random hex chars. Avoids node:crypto\n // import to keep the matrix dep-free.\n const t = Date.now().toString(36)\n let r = ''\n for (let i = 0; i < 8; i++) r += Math.floor(Math.random() * 16).toString(16)\n return `mtx_${t}_${r}`\n}\n\n/** Fresh per result — a shared object would let one consumer's mutation reach\n * every other cell in the run. */\nfunction uncaptured(): CostProvenance {\n return { kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null }\n}\n\nfunction makeErrorResult<Output>(err: unknown): CellResult<Output> {\n const e = err as { message?: string; name?: string }\n const spend = readCellSpend(err)\n return {\n output: undefined as unknown as Output,\n verdict: { valid: false, score: 0 },\n costUsd: spend?.costUsd ?? 0,\n durationMs: spend?.durationMs ?? 0,\n costProvenance:\n spend === undefined || spend.kind === 'uncaptured'\n ? uncaptured()\n : { kind: spend.kind, usd: spend.costUsd },\n error: {\n message: typeof e?.message === 'string' ? e.message : String(err),\n kind: typeof e?.name === 'string' ? e.name : 'Error',\n },\n }\n}\n\n/** Make a result safe to sum.\n *\n * A `costUsd` that cannot be summed fails the cell: `NaN` in `cumulativeCost`\n * makes `>= costCeiling` false forever, so one bad cell would disable the\n * ceiling for every cell after it.\n *\n * A bad `durationMs` reaches only `meanDurationMs`, never the ceiling, so it\n * cannot justify throwing away a real verdict and a real cost. It is reported\n * as 0 and warned about, and the rest of the result stands. A wall clock that\n * steps back mid-cell makes `Date.now() - startedAt` negative, so this is a\n * reachable state, not only a caller bug. */\nfunction billableResult<Output>(\n result: CellResult<Output>,\n onBadDuration: (reported: unknown) => void,\n): CellResult<Output> {\n if (!isAmount(result.costUsd)) {\n return makeErrorResult<Output>(\n new RangeError(\n `runCell reported costUsd=${String(result.costUsd)}; a cell cost must be a finite number >= 0 so the cost ceiling stays enforceable`,\n ),\n )\n }\n if (isAmount(result.durationMs)) return result\n onBadDuration(result.durationMs)\n return { ...result, durationMs: 0 }\n}\n\nexport async function runAgentMatrix<Output>(\n opts: RunAgentMatrixOptions<Output>,\n): Promise<MatrixResult<Output>> {\n const startedAt = Date.now()\n const reps = Math.max(1, opts.reps ?? 1)\n const maxConcurrency = Math.max(1, opts.maxConcurrency ?? 4)\n const costCeiling = opts.costCeiling ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY\n const aggregateBy = opts.aggregateBy ?? opts.axes.map((a) => a.name)\n if (opts.maxCellCostUsd !== undefined && !isAmount(opts.maxCellCostUsd)) {\n throw new RangeError(\n `runAgentMatrix: maxCellCostUsd must be a finite number >= 0, received ${String(opts.maxCellCostUsd)}`,\n )\n }\n\n const base = cartesian(opts.axes)\n const filtered = opts.filter\n ? base.filter((c) => (opts.filter as (b: BaseCell) => boolean)(c))\n : base\n const filteredOut = base.length - filtered.length\n\n const planned: MatrixCell[] = []\n for (let i = 0; i < filtered.length; i++) {\n for (let r = 0; r < reps; r++) {\n planned.push({\n axes: (filtered[i] as BaseCell).axes,\n rep: r,\n ordinal: i * reps + r,\n })\n }\n }\n\n const cellRecords: Array<{ cell: MatrixCell; runs: CellResult<Output>[] }> = []\n // What the ceiling reads. It runs ahead of the reported total whenever a\n // cell's cost is a subtotal and `maxCellCostUsd` bounds what it could have\n // been — a budget must assume the worst about spend it cannot see.\n let cumulativeCost = 0\n let costCeilingReached = false\n let runsExecuted = 0\n let cellsUnscheduled = 0\n let costUncapturedCells = 0\n let badDurationCells = 0\n\n const aborted = (): boolean => opts.signal?.aborted === true\n\n // Per-run abort controller forwards the external signal so cell executors\n // see cancellation. We don't expose it on `MatrixCell` — the signature on\n // `runCell` per the public API is `(cell) => Promise<...>`. Executors that\n // need cancellation use the external signal directly via closure.\n\n let inFlight = 0\n let cursor = 0\n let resolveAll: (() => void) | undefined\n const done = new Promise<void>((res) => {\n resolveAll = res\n })\n\n const pump = (): void => {\n while (inFlight < maxConcurrency && cursor < planned.length) {\n if (aborted() || costCeilingReached) {\n // Drain remaining as unscheduled.\n const left = planned.length - cursor\n cellsUnscheduled += left\n cursor = planned.length\n break\n }\n const cell = planned[cursor++] as MatrixCell\n inFlight++\n // Lazily allocate the record so cells appear in `cells[]` in any\n // arrival order; we sort by ordinal at the end.\n const record = { cell, runs: [] as CellResult<Output>[] }\n cellRecords.push(record)\n const promise: Promise<CellResult<Output>> = (async () => {\n try {\n return await opts.runCell(cell)\n } catch (err) {\n return makeErrorResult<Output>(err)\n }\n })()\n promise.then((settled) => {\n const result = billableResult(settled, (reported) => {\n badDurationCells++\n if (badDurationCells === 1) {\n // eslint-disable-next-line no-console\n console.warn(\n `[matrix] a cell reported durationMs=${String(reported)}; recorded as 0 — meanDurationMs under-reports this run`,\n )\n }\n })\n record.runs.push(result)\n runsExecuted++\n const uncapturedCost = result.costProvenance?.kind === 'uncaptured'\n cumulativeCost +=\n uncapturedCost && opts.maxCellCostUsd !== undefined\n ? Math.max(result.costUsd, opts.maxCellCostUsd)\n : result.costUsd\n if (uncapturedCost) {\n costUncapturedCells++\n if (costUncapturedCells === 1) {\n // eslint-disable-next-line no-console\n console.warn(\n \"[matrix] a cell's cost is a subtotal, not a total — totalCostUsd and the cost ceiling under-count this run\",\n )\n }\n }\n if (cumulativeCost >= costCeiling && !costCeilingReached) {\n costCeilingReached = true\n // eslint-disable-next-line no-console\n console.warn('[matrix] cost ceiling reached')\n }\n try {\n opts.onCellComplete?.(cell, result)\n } catch {\n // onCellComplete is observational — swallow throws so a noisy\n // callback can't tank the run.\n }\n inFlight--\n if (cursor < planned.length) {\n pump()\n } else if (inFlight === 0) {\n resolveAll?.()\n }\n })\n }\n if (cursor >= planned.length && inFlight === 0) resolveAll?.()\n }\n\n const onAbort = (): void => {\n // External abort: stop scheduling. In-flight cells finish; their\n // executors observe `opts.signal.aborted` directly via closure.\n if (cursor < planned.length) {\n cellsUnscheduled += planned.length - cursor\n cursor = planned.length\n }\n if (inFlight === 0) resolveAll?.()\n }\n if (opts.signal) {\n if (opts.signal.aborted) {\n cellsUnscheduled = planned.length\n cursor = planned.length\n resolveAll?.()\n } else {\n opts.signal.addEventListener('abort', onAbort, { once: true })\n }\n }\n\n if (planned.length === 0) {\n resolveAll?.()\n } else {\n pump()\n }\n\n await done\n if (opts.signal) opts.signal.removeEventListener('abort', onAbort)\n\n cellRecords.sort((a, b) => a.cell.ordinal - b.cell.ordinal)\n\n let pass = 0\n let scoreSum = 0\n let totalCost = 0\n let runCount = 0\n for (const { runs } of cellRecords) {\n for (const r of runs) {\n runCount++\n const errored = r.error !== undefined\n if (!errored && r.verdict.valid) pass++\n scoreSum += errored ? 0 : r.verdict.score\n totalCost += r.costUsd\n }\n }\n\n 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@@ -1,155 +0,0 @@
1
- import { a as RunRecord, s as RunSearchCoordinates } from "./run-record-D1Hw-Jml.js";
2
- import { s as TraceStore } from "./store-C4avFjIi.js";
3
- import { a as MintedRolloutLine, m as RolloutEvidenceAttempt, t as ChatMessage, y as RolloutRole } from "./schema-C-ziyJD7.js";
4
- //#region src/rollout/reward.d.ts
5
- /**
6
- * Which split's score wins when a record carries both. `'holdout'` is the
7
- * canonical "real signal" default; `'search'` exists because some callers
8
- * deliberately score on the search split when both are present.
9
- */
10
- type ScorePreference = 'holdout' | 'search';
11
- /** Only the outcome is read, so every accessor here accepts anything carrying one. */
12
- type Scored = Pick<RunRecord, 'outcome'>;
13
- /** True when the authenticity gate flagged the run as gamed (`realness.gated`). */
14
- declare function isRealnessGated(record: Scored): boolean;
15
- /**
16
- * The RAW score recorded on ONE split, with no cross-split fallback and no
17
- * anti-Goodhart gate.
18
- *
19
- * The narrowest of the three raw readers, and the one every split-scoped
20
- * consumer wants: a per-split report, a promotion gate, or a paired comparison
21
- * asks "what did this run score on the split I am summarising", and answering
22
- * it with the other split's number silently mixes populations. `undefined` =
23
- * that split was never scored.
24
- *
25
- * Same warning as `observedScore`: this INCLUDES runs flagged as gamed. Never
26
- * feed it into training data.
27
- */
28
- declare function observedSplitScore(record: Scored, split: ScorePreference): number | undefined;
29
- /**
30
- * The RAW split score the run carries, with NO anti-Goodhart gate applied.
31
- *
32
- * INCLUDES RUNS FLAGGED AS GAMED (`outcome.realness.gated === true`); NEVER
33
- * feed this into training data — a fine-tune that sees it learns from gamed
34
- * successes. It is exported anyway because analysis, reporting, and
35
- * reward-hacking detection legitimately need the ungated number: forcing a
36
- * gamed run to 0 collapses the proxy signal toward ground truth and makes a
37
- * detector report "clean" on exactly the population that is being gamed.
38
- *
39
- * Returns `undefined` when the record carries neither score — an unscored run
40
- * is a labeled gap, not a measured zero, and each caller picks its own
41
- * sentinel (`?? 0`, `?? null`, skip, throw). Non-finite values are returned
42
- * as-is; callers that care keep their own `Number.isFinite` guard.
43
- */
44
- declare function observedScore(record: Scored, prefer?: ScorePreference): number | undefined;
45
- /** Which split actually carried the score, or that none did. */
46
- type ScoreOrigin = 'holdout' | 'search' | 'unscored';
47
- /**
48
- * Where `observedScore` / `trainingScore` read their number from — the
49
- * provenance label a rollout line's `reward_source` is built from, and the
50
- * only supported way to ask "was this run scored at all" without respelling
51
- * the field access.
52
- */
53
- declare function scoreOrigin(record: Scored, prefer?: ScorePreference): ScoreOrigin;
54
- /**
55
- * The GATED score — the only derivation allowed to reach training data.
56
- *
57
- * A realness-gated run scores 0 no matter what it claims, so a fine-tune
58
- * cannot learn from a gamed success. An unscored run stays `undefined` (a
59
- * labeled gap), keeping "we never measured this" distinct from "we measured
60
- * zero"; callers that need a number apply their own sentinel.
61
- */
62
- declare function trainingScore(record: Scored, prefer?: ScorePreference): number | undefined;
63
- /**
64
- * `{reward, gated}` as written onto a minted `RolloutLine` — `trainingScore`
65
- * plus the flag itself, so the gate travels into the exported row and a
66
- * downstream filter can drop or down-weight the line.
67
- *
68
- * An unscored record yields `reward: null`, matching the schema's "no verdict
69
- * exists — a labeled gap, never 0" rule. It previously collapsed to 0, which
70
- * made a run nobody graded indistinguishable from one graded as a total
71
- * failure, and taught any trainer reading the row that the trajectory was bad.
72
- * A gated run still yields 0, because that IS a verdict: the gate decided.
73
- */
74
- declare function trainingReward(record: Scored): {
75
- reward: number | null;
76
- gated: boolean;
77
- };
78
- //#endregion
79
- //#region src/rollout/mint.d.ts
80
- /** Redactor for transcript/step payload text (secrets, PII), not opaque identity. */
81
- type RolloutScrubber = (text: string) => string;
82
- /** A search cell's place in its search tree, read from the search ledger. */
83
- interface RolloutSearchLineage {
84
- /** Edges between the cell's node and the search root; the root is 0. */
85
- depth: number;
86
- /** Order in which the node registered in its search; the root is 0. */
87
- ordinal: number;
88
- /** Repeat index of the cell on its task, from 0. */
89
- rep: number;
90
- /** Run id of the cell whose execution contains this search; null for a
91
- * top-level search. */
92
- containingRunId: string | null;
93
- }
94
- interface MintRolloutOptions {
95
- scrub?: RolloutScrubber;
96
- /**
97
- * Full canonical capture, including turns no longer in the model's context.
98
- * When supplied, missing/empty capture is refused, never replaced with a
99
- * span summary. Use the execution owner's capture or the existing harness
100
- * readers; reviewer traces and compacted histories are not full capture.
101
- */
102
- messagesOf?: (runId: string) => readonly ChatMessage[] | undefined | Promise<readonly ChatMessage[] | undefined>;
103
- /** Provider attempts from a retained receipt bound to the exact run. */
104
- evidenceOf?: (runId: string) => {
105
- runId: string;
106
- attempts: readonly RolloutEvidenceAttempt[];
107
- } | undefined | Promise<{
108
- runId: string;
109
- attempts: readonly RolloutEvidenceAttempt[];
110
- } | undefined>;
111
- /** Cap steps per line (longest runs first drop middle steps). Default: no cap. */
112
- maxSteps?: number;
113
- /** Role recorded on every minted line. Default 'agent' (a solo eval run). */
114
- role?: RolloutRole;
115
- /** Task suite label. Default: the record's `experimentId`. */
116
- suite?: string;
117
- /** Injected clock for deterministic output. */
118
- now?: () => Date;
119
- /**
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- * Lineage of a search run, read from its search ledger. It fills the line's
121
- * `generation` (node depth), `candidate_index` (node order), `task.rep` and
122
- * `parent_rollout_id` (the containing cell's run). Mint refuses a record
123
- * that carries `search` when this is absent, because a null `generation`
124
- * states that the run is not part of a search.
125
- */
126
- searchLineage?: (search: RunSearchCoordinates) => RolloutSearchLineage | Promise<RolloutSearchLineage>;
127
- }
128
- interface MintRolloutResult {
129
- rows: MintedRolloutLine[];
130
- /** runIds that had a RunRecord but no spans — emitted as gap lines AND listed here. */
131
- missingTraces: string[];
132
- }
133
- /**
134
- * Why a record cannot be minted, one entry per missing field, empty when it can.
135
- *
136
- * Exported so a caller can partition a whole ledger — "which of my 2742 records
137
- * predate 0.126" — without catching an exception per record, and without
138
- * re-deriving the field list on their side. A re-derived list is a list that
139
- * drifts from the door it is supposed to predict.
140
- *
141
- * Takes a `RunRecord` because that is what the caller holds and what the
142
- * compiler agrees they hold. The type is precisely the thing that is wrong, so
143
- * the checks read the record as the untyped bag it actually is on disk.
144
- */
145
- declare function unmintableReasons(record: RunRecord): string[];
146
- /**
147
- * Join RunRecords with their traces into canonical rollout lines. Records
148
- * without spans or an explicit capture are emitted as labeled gap lines and reported in
149
- * `missingTraces`. Execution-only records without a task score are rejected
150
- * because a missing training label is not a zero reward.
151
- */
152
- declare function mintRolloutRows(records: RunRecord[], store: TraceStore, options?: MintRolloutOptions): Promise<MintRolloutResult>;
153
- //#endregion
154
- export { mintRolloutRows as a, ScorePreference as c, observedSplitScore as d, scoreOrigin as f, RolloutSearchLineage as i, isRealnessGated as l, trainingScore as m, MintRolloutResult as n, unmintableReasons as o, trainingReward as p, RolloutScrubber as r, ScoreOrigin as s, MintRolloutOptions as t, observedScore as u };
155
- //# sourceMappingURL=mint-DCGoBYhB.d.ts.map
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@@ -1,25 +0,0 @@
1
- //#region src/math/normal.ts
2
- /**
3
- * Standard normal cumulative distribution using Abramowitz and Stegun 7.1.26.
4
- *
5
- * The approximation is evaluated as erf(x / sqrt(2)). Computing the negative
6
- * tail from the complementary term avoids cancellation when x is far below 0.
7
- * The maximum absolute CDF error is approximately 7.5e-8.
8
- */
9
- function normalCdf(x) {
10
- if (x === 0) return .5;
11
- const a1 = .254829592;
12
- const a2 = -.284496736;
13
- const a3 = 1.421413741;
14
- const a4 = -1.453152027;
15
- const a5 = 1.061405429;
16
- const p = .3275911;
17
- const scaled = Math.abs(x) / Math.SQRT2;
18
- const t = 1 / (1 + p * scaled);
19
- const complement = ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-scaled * scaled);
20
- return x < 0 ? complement / 2 : 1 - complement / 2;
21
- }
22
- //#endregion
23
- export { normalCdf as t };
24
-
25
- //# sourceMappingURL=normal-DsJZtrJc.js.map
@@ -1 +0,0 @@
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@@ -1 +0,0 @@
1
- {"version":3,"file":"paired-arms-DzKn0TfY.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/statistics/rank-tests.ts","../src/paired-arms.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { normalCdf } from '../math/normal'\nimport { lnGamma } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport {\n assertFiniteSample,\n binomialSignTwoSided,\n makeRng,\n symmetricTwoSampleSeed,\n} from './internal'\n\n// ── Rank tests: exact by default ─────────────────────────────────────\n//\n// At 3–10 repetitions per arm the binding constraint on a rank test is\n// combinatorial, not numerical. Three versus three admits only 20 splits, so\n// the attainable two-sided p-grid starts at 0.1000 and α = 0.05 is out of\n// reach at that design; a normal approximation reports 0.0495, a p-value that\n// describes no attainable outcome. No better approximation fixes this — adding\n// the tie correction moves `[0,0,0]` versus `[1,1,1]` from 0.0495 to 0.0469,\n// further from its exact 0.1000, not closer.\n//\n// So both null distributions are enumerated exactly inside bounded state and\n// work budgets, by convolution over the observed midranks (identical to\n// enumerating every split / sign pattern, and cheaper), which conditions on the\n// realised tie pattern for free. Above those budgets the default is a seeded\n// Monte Carlo permutation. The asymptotic path is never chosen automatically,\n// and asking for it inside the exact-feasible range throws.\n//\n// Every result carries `method` and `pFloor` so a downstream gate can SEE the\n// discreteness rather than infer it: a gate handed data whose `pFloor` exceeds\n// its alpha is underpowered by construction, which is a true statement about\n// the experiment, not a false one about the effect.\n\n/** How a rank test's p-value was actually computed. */\nexport type RankTestMethod = 'exact' | 'permutation' | 'asymptotic'\n\n/**\n * What the caller asks for. `'auto'` selects `'exact'` inside the enumeration\n * threshold and `'permutation'` above it, and never selects `'asymptotic'`.\n */\nexport type RankTestMethodRequest = 'auto' | 'exact' | 'asymptotic'\n\nexport interface RankTestOptions {\n /** Default `'auto'`. `'asymptotic'` inside the exact-feasible range throws. */\n method?: RankTestMethodRequest\n /** Resamples on the Monte Carlo permutation path. Default 100000. */\n permutations?: number\n /** Seed for the permutation path. Omitted ⇒ derived from the data itself, so\n * the result is reproducible either way. */\n seed?: number\n}\n\n/** Maximum dynamic-programming cells used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nexport const MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES = 8_192\n/** Maximum inner-loop transitions used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nexport const MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK = 250_000\n/** Non-zero differences up to which the signed-rank null is enumerated exactly. */\nexport const WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N = 20\n/** Resamples used when a rank test falls back to Monte Carlo permutation. */\nexport const DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS = 100_000\n\nexport interface MannWhitneyResult {\n /** `min(U_a, U_b)` — the conventional reported statistic. */\n u: number\n /** U for sample `a`. Carries the direction of the effect, which `u` discards. */\n uA: number\n /** Two-sided p-value. */\n p: number\n /** How `p` was computed. */\n method: RankTestMethod\n /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. `p` can never be below it. */\n pFloor: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U — two independent samples, no distributional assumption.\n *\n * Exact conditional (permutation) p by default when the dynamic program fits\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES} cells and\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK} transitions, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above those limits. This keeps imbalanced designs such as 1+24\n * exact without admitting expensive balanced designs merely because they have\n * the same total size. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available. Empty input yields `p = 1,\n * pFloor = 1` — no design, no attainable evidence.\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(\n a: number[],\n b: number[],\n opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): MannWhitneyResult {\n assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'a', a)\n assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'b', b)\n\n const n1 = a.length\n const n2 = b.length\n if (n1 === 0 || n2 === 0) return { u: 0, uA: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1 }\n\n const total = n1 + n2\n const combined = [\n ...a.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: true })),\n ...b.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: false })),\n ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(combined.map((entry) => entry.v))\n let rankSumA = 0\n for (let k = 0; k < total; k++) {\n if (combined[k]!.fromA) rankSumA += midranks[k]!\n }\n\n const uA = rankSumA - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n const u = Math.min(uA, n1 * n2 - uA)\n // Midranks are integers or halves, so doubling makes the null convolution\n // integral. U is centred on n₁n₂/2, hence a doubled centre of n₁n₂.\n const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * uA - n1 * n2)\n const selectedN = Math.min(n1, n2)\n const otherN = total - selectedN\n const exactCost = exactTwoSampleCost(doubled, selectedN)\n\n const designFloor = exactTwoSampleFloor(doubled, selectedN)\n const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n 'mannWhitneyU',\n opts.method ?? 'auto',\n `n1=${n1}, n2=${n2}`,\n exactCost.states <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES &&\n exactCost.work <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK,\n designFloor,\n `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES.toLocaleString('en-US')} states and ` +\n `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK.toLocaleString('en-US')} transitions`,\n )\n\n if (method === 'exact') {\n const { p, pFloor } = exactTwoSampleP(doubled, selectedN, otherN, doubledDeviation)\n return { u, uA, p, method, pFloor }\n }\n\n if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n return {\n u,\n uA,\n p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, twoSampleSigma(n1, n2, total, tieTerm)),\n method,\n pFloor: designFloor,\n }\n }\n\n const permutations = resolvePermutations('mannWhitneyU', opts.permutations)\n const rng = opts.seed === undefined ? makeRng(symmetricTwoSampleSeed(a, b)) : makeRng(opts.seed)\n let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n const pool = [...doubled]\n for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n let doubledRankSum = 0\n for (let k = 0; k < selectedN; k++) {\n const pick = k + Math.floor(rng() * (total - k))\n const swapped = pool[pick]!\n pool[pick] = pool[k]!\n pool[k] = swapped\n doubledRankSum += swapped\n }\n if (\n Math.abs(doubledRankSum - selectedN * (selectedN + 1) - selectedN * otherN) >=\n doubledDeviation\n ) {\n atLeastAsExtreme++\n }\n }\n const pFloor = Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor)\n return {\n u,\n uA,\n p: Math.max((1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1), pFloor),\n method,\n pFloor,\n }\n}\n\nexport interface WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n /** W⁺, the rank sum of the positive differences. (scipy reports\n * `min(W⁺, W⁻)`; compare statistics only after converting.) */\n w: number\n /** Two-sided p-value. */\n p: number\n /** How `p` was computed. */\n method: RankTestMethod\n /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. */\n pFloor: number\n /** Non-zero differences — zero differences are dropped and carry no rank. */\n nNonZero: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank — paired, no distributional assumption on the deltas.\n *\n * Exact conditional (sign-flip) p by default at `n ≤\n * {@link WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N}` non-zero differences, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above it. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available.\n *\n * `n` is the count of NON-ZERO differences: exact ties are dropped before\n * ranking, so a run of tied pairs shrinks the design and raises `pFloor`.\n * All-tied input yields `p = 1, pFloor = 1` — no attainable evidence, which\n * `pFloor` states rather than leaving `p = 1` to be read as a measured null.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(\n before: number[],\n after: number[],\n opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n if (before.length !== after.length) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n )\n }\n assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'before', before)\n assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'after', after)\n\n const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n const n = diffs.length\n if (n === 0) return { w: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1, nNonZero: 0 }\n\n // When every non-zero difference has the same magnitude, the signed-rank\n // null reduces exactly to a binomial sign distribution. This is the common\n // pass/fail shape ({-1, 0, +1}); recognizing it avoids a 100k-draw\n // permutation for every repeated gate evaluation while preserving the exact\n // p-value and attainable floor. Explicit method requests still retain their\n // documented behavior.\n const abs = Math.abs(diffs[0]!)\n const allEqualAbs = diffs.every((d) => Math.abs(d) === abs)\n if ((opts.method === undefined || opts.method === 'auto') && allEqualAbs) {\n const positive = diffs.filter((d) => d > 0).length\n const negative = n - positive\n return {\n w: (positive * (n + 1)) / 2,\n p: binomialSignTwoSided(positive, negative),\n method: 'exact',\n pFloor: Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n)),\n nNonZero: n,\n }\n }\n\n const order = diffs.map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), i })).sort((x, y) => x.abs - y.abs)\n const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(order.map((entry) => entry.abs))\n const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) ranks[order[k]!.i] = midranks[k]!\n\n let wPlus = 0\n for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n // Midranks are integers or halves; doubling makes the convolution integral.\n // Σ midranks = n(n+1)/2 whatever the tie pattern, so E[W⁺] = n(n+1)/4 and\n // the doubled centre is n(n+1)/2.\n const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * wPlus - (n * (n + 1)) / 2)\n\n const designFloor = Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n))\n const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n 'wilcoxonSignedRank',\n opts.method ?? 'auto',\n `n=${n} non-zero differences`,\n n <= WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N,\n designFloor,\n `${WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N} non-zero differences`,\n )\n\n if (method === 'exact') {\n const { p, pFloor } = exactSignedRankP(doubled, doubledDeviation)\n return { w: wPlus, p, method, pFloor, nNonZero: n }\n }\n\n if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24 - tieTerm / 48\n return {\n w: wPlus,\n p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, Math.sqrt(variance)),\n method,\n pFloor: designFloor,\n nNonZero: n,\n }\n }\n\n const permutations = resolvePermutations('wilcoxonSignedRank', opts.permutations)\n const rng = makeRng(opts.seed, before, after)\n const doubledCentre = (n * (n + 1)) / 2\n let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n let doubledWPlus = 0\n for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (rng() < 0.5) doubledWPlus += doubled[k]!\n if (Math.abs(doubledWPlus - doubledCentre) >= doubledDeviation) atLeastAsExtreme++\n }\n return {\n w: wPlus,\n p: (1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1),\n method,\n pFloor: Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor),\n nNonZero: n,\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Average ranks over an ASCENDING-sorted array, plus `Σ(t³ − t)` over tie\n * groups of size `t` — the correction term both asymptotic rank-test variances\n * need.\n */\nfunction midranksWithTieTerm(sorted: readonly number[]): { midranks: number[]; tieTerm: number } {\n const midranks = new Array<number>(sorted.length)\n let tieTerm = 0\n let i = 0\n while (i < sorted.length) {\n let j = i\n while (j < sorted.length && sorted[j] === sorted[i]) j++\n const average = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n for (let k = i; k < j; k++) midranks[k] = average\n const groupSize = j - i\n if (groupSize > 1) tieTerm += groupSize ** 3 - groupSize\n i = j\n }\n return { midranks, tieTerm }\n}\n\nfunction selectRankTestMethod(\n fn: string,\n request: RankTestMethodRequest,\n design: string,\n exactFeasible: boolean,\n designFloor: number,\n threshold: string,\n): RankTestMethod {\n if (request === 'auto') return exactFeasible ? 'exact' : 'permutation'\n if (request === 'exact') {\n if (exactFeasible) return 'exact'\n throw new ValidationError(\n `${fn}: method 'exact' is out of range at ${design} — enumeration is bounded by ` +\n `${threshold}. Use 'auto' for the seeded Monte Carlo permutation, which converges ` +\n 'to the same answer.',\n )\n }\n if (exactFeasible) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `${fn}: method 'asymptotic' is refused at ${design} — the exact p-grid at this design ` +\n `starts at ${formatProbability(designFloor)}, so an asymptotic p below it describes no ` +\n `attainable outcome. Use method 'exact' (the default) or add repetitions past ` +\n `${threshold}.`,\n )\n }\n return 'asymptotic'\n}\n\nfunction resolvePermutations(fn: string, permutations: number | undefined): number {\n if (permutations === undefined) return DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS\n if (!Number.isInteger(permutations) || permutations < 1) {\n throw new ValidationError(`${fn}: permutations must be a positive integer, got ${permutations}`)\n }\n return permutations\n}\n\n/** Two-sided normal-approximation tail with the continuity correction. */\nfunction asymptoticTwoSidedP(deviation: number, sigma: number): number {\n if (!(sigma > 0)) return 1\n return Math.min(1, 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.max(0, deviation - 0.5) / sigma)))\n}\n\n/** SD of U under the permutation null, corrected for the realised ties. The\n * tie term reduces (N+1) and reaches it exactly when every value is tied, so\n * the variance floors at 0 rather than going negative. */\nfunction twoSampleSigma(n1: number, n2: number, total: number, tieTerm: number): number {\n if (total < 2) return 0\n const variance = ((n1 * n2) / 12) * (total + 1 - tieTerm / (total * (total - 1)))\n return Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, variance))\n}\n\nfunction logChoose(n: number, k: number): number {\n return lnGamma(n + 1) - lnGamma(k + 1) - lnGamma(n - k + 1)\n}\n\nfunction formatProbability(value: number): string {\n return value >= 1e-4 || value === 0 ? value.toFixed(4) : value.toExponential(3)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact DP allocation and loop count for this observed rank vector.\n *\n * The smaller arm is sufficient because selecting its complement produces the\n * same two-sided U deviation while using fewer rows in the state table.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleCost(\n doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n selectedN: number,\n): { states: number; work: number } {\n const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n let work = 0\n for (let placed = 0; placed < doubledRanks.length; placed++) {\n work += Math.min(selectedN, placed + 1) * (maxSum - doubledRanks[placed]! + 1)\n }\n return {\n states: (selectedN + 1) * (maxSum + 1),\n work,\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Smallest attainable two-sided p under the observed ties.\n *\n * Only subsets with the minimum or maximum rank sum can attain the largest\n * deviation. Their multiplicity is the number of ways to choose within the\n * tie group at each boundary, so this calculation is exact without allocating\n * the full null distribution.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleFloor(doubledRanks: readonly number[], selectedN: number): number {\n const total = doubledRanks.length\n const otherN = total - selectedN\n const minimumSum = doubledRanks.slice(0, selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n const maximumSum = doubledRanks.slice(total - selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n if (minimumSum === maximumSum) return 1\n\n const centre = selectedN * (selectedN + 1) + selectedN * otherN\n const minimumDeviation = Math.abs(minimumSum - centre)\n const maximumDeviation = Math.abs(maximumSum - centre)\n const totalLogWays = logChoose(total, selectedN)\n const minimumMass = Math.exp(\n logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'minimum') - totalLogWays,\n )\n const maximumMass = Math.exp(\n logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'maximum') - totalLogWays,\n )\n\n if (minimumDeviation > maximumDeviation) return minimumMass\n if (maximumDeviation > minimumDeviation) return maximumMass\n return Math.min(1, minimumMass + maximumMass)\n}\n\nfunction logExtremeSubsetWays(\n sortedRanks: readonly number[],\n selectedN: number,\n side: 'minimum' | 'maximum',\n): number {\n const boundaryIndex = side === 'minimum' ? selectedN - 1 : sortedRanks.length - selectedN\n const boundary = sortedRanks[boundaryIndex]!\n let first = boundaryIndex\n let afterLast = boundaryIndex + 1\n while (first > 0 && sortedRanks[first - 1] === boundary) first--\n while (afterLast < sortedRanks.length && sortedRanks[afterLast] === boundary) afterLast++\n\n const tieSize = afterLast - first\n const fixed = side === 'minimum' ? first : sortedRanks.length - afterLast\n return logChoose(tieSize, selectedN - fixed)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the two-sample rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled midranks into the null distribution of group\n * a's rank sum over every `C(n₁+n₂, n₁)` split — identical to enumerating the\n * splits, but `O(N·n₁·ΣR)` instead of `O(C(N,n₁)·n₁n₂)`. Conditioning on the\n * realised multiset makes the tie handling exact rather than a correction.\n *\n * The null is symmetric about `n₁n₂/2` (negating every value maps `U → n₁n₂ −\n * U` and permutes the split set onto itself), so the two-sided p is the mass\n * at least as far from the centre as the observation.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleP(\n doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n n1: number,\n n2: number,\n doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n const width = maxSum + 1\n // ways[k][s] = number of size-k subsets whose doubled rank sum is s.\n const ways: Float64Array[] = Array.from({ length: n1 + 1 }, () => new Float64Array(width))\n ways[0]![0] = 1\n let placed = 0\n for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n for (let k = Math.min(n1, placed + 1); k >= 1; k--) {\n const from = ways[k - 1]!\n const into = ways[k]!\n for (let sum = maxSum - rank; sum >= 0; sum--) {\n const count = from[sum]!\n if (count !== 0) into[sum + rank]! += count\n }\n }\n placed++\n }\n\n // U = rankSum − n₁(n₁+1)/2, so doubled U = s − n₁(n₁+1), and the doubled\n // centre 2·(n₁n₂/2) is n₁n₂.\n const shift = n1 * (n1 + 1) + n1 * n2\n const chosen = ways[n1]!\n let totalWays = 0\n let extremeWays = 0\n let tailWays = 0\n let maxDeviation = -1\n for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n const count = chosen[sum]!\n if (count === 0) continue\n totalWays += count\n const deviation = Math.abs(sum - shift)\n if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tailWays += count\n if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n maxDeviation = deviation\n extremeWays = count\n } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n extremeWays += count\n }\n }\n return { p: tailWays / totalWays, pFloor: extremeWays / totalWays }\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the paired signed-rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled absolute midranks over all `2ⁿ` sign\n * assignments in `O(n·ΣR)`. Probabilities rather than counts keep `2ⁿ` off the\n * arithmetic. The null is symmetric about `n(n+1)/4`.\n */\nfunction exactSignedRankP(\n doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n const width = maxSum + 1\n let mass = new Float64Array(width)\n mass[0] = 1\n for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n const next = new Float64Array(width)\n for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n const probability = mass[sum]!\n if (probability === 0) continue\n next[sum]! += probability * 0.5\n next[sum + rank]! += probability * 0.5\n }\n mass = next\n }\n\n const centre = maxSum / 2\n let tail = 0\n let extreme = 0\n let maxDeviation = -1\n for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n const probability = mass[sum]!\n if (probability === 0) continue\n const deviation = Math.abs(sum - centre)\n if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tail += probability\n if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n maxDeviation = deviation\n extreme = probability\n } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n extreme += probability\n }\n }\n return { p: Math.min(1, tail), pFloor: Math.min(1, extreme) }\n}\n","/**\n * Matched-pair arm comparison — \"did the treatment arm beat the baseline arm\n * on the SAME work items?\"\n *\n * An arm A/B over run records is only trustworthy when it is PAIRED: the same\n * task/scenario/seed evaluated under both arms, compared item-by-item, so\n * inter-item difficulty variance cancels instead of masquerading as an arm\n * effect. This module owns the two error-prone steps every consumer otherwise\n * hand-rolls:\n *\n * 1. Pairing — matching rows across arms by `pairKey` (and by `repKey`\n * within multi-rep items), with leftovers REPORTED rather than silently\n * dropped (a silently unbalanced pairing biases every paired statistic\n * downstream). Pairing never keys on outcome content: matching reps by\n * their outcomes deflates discordant-pair counts and makes McNemar\n * anti-conservative, so reps pair only by (`pairKey`, `repKey`) identity.\n * 2. Composition — feeding the matched pairs to the correct paired\n * estimators that already live in `statistics`: `mcnemar` +\n * `pairedRiskDifference` for pass/fail, `pairedBootstrap` +\n * `wilcoxonSignedRank` for continuous metrics. No statistic is\n * re-implemented here.\n *\n * The row shape is deliberately structural — callers project a `RunRecord`\n * (or any record) into `{ pairKey, arm, pass?, metrics? }`. Arm names are\n * caller-supplied parameters; the module ships no domain literal.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport type { McNemarResult, PairedBootstrapOptions, PairedBootstrapResult } from './statistics'\nimport {\n mcnemar,\n pairedBootstrap,\n pairedRiskDifference,\n type RiskDifferenceResult,\n wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n/** One arm observation of one work item. Structural on purpose: callers\n * project their own record type (e.g. a `RunRecord`) into this shape. */\nexport interface PairedArmRow {\n /** Matching key — rows sharing a `pairKey` across both arms form pairs\n * (typically the task/scenario/seed identity). */\n pairKey: string\n /** Rep identity within a `pairKey` (e.g. a seed or rep number). Required on\n * every row of a `pairKey` that has more than one rep in either arm; reps\n * then pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`) match, never on outcome\n * content. Optional when each arm has at most one rep of the item. */\n repKey?: string\n /** Arm label this row was produced under. */\n arm: string\n /** Binary outcome; omit when the comparison has no pass/fail notion. */\n pass?: boolean\n /** Named numeric measurements (score, cost, latency, …). */\n metrics?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsOptions {\n /** Arm treated as the control side of every pair. */\n baselineArm: string\n /** Arm treated as the treatment side of every pair. */\n treatmentArm: string\n}\n\n/** One matched (baseline, treatment) observation of the same work item. */\nexport interface MatchedPair {\n pairKey: string\n /** 0-based position of this pair within its `pairKey`, ordered by sorted\n * `repKey` (always 0 for a single-rep item). The rep identity itself is on\n * the rows (`baseline.repKey` / `treatment.repKey`). */\n repIndex: number\n baseline: PairedArmRow\n treatment: PairedArmRow\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsResult {\n /** Matched pairs, ordered by (`pairKey`, `repIndex`). */\n pairs: MatchedPair[]\n /** Baseline rows left without a treatment counterpart — reported, never\n * silently dropped. */\n unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[]\n /** Treatment rows left without a baseline counterpart. */\n unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Match rows across two arms into (baseline, treatment) pairs by `pairKey`.\n *\n * A `pairKey` with at most one row per arm pairs directly, no `repKey`\n * needed. A `pairKey` with multiple reps in either arm requires `repKey` on\n * every one of its rows, and reps pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`)\n * match — pairing is keyed purely on row identity, never on outcome content\n * (outcome-keyed matching deflates discordant counts and biases McNemar), and\n * is therefore independent of input order. Reps whose `repKey` has no\n * counterpart in the other arm, and items present in only one arm, land in\n * the unpaired lists — reported, never truncated.\n *\n * Fail-loud: throws when either named arm has zero rows (an unknown arm\n * name would otherwise read as \"everything unpaired\"), when the two arm\n * names are equal, when a multi-rep `pairKey` has a row without `repKey`, or\n * when a (`pairKey`, arm) group repeats a `repKey` (the match would be\n * ambiguous).\n */\nexport function pairArms(rows: readonly PairedArmRow[], opts: PairArmsOptions): PairArmsResult {\n const { baselineArm, treatmentArm } = opts\n if (baselineArm === treatmentArm) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `pairArms: baselineArm and treatmentArm are both '${baselineArm}' — an arm cannot be compared to itself`,\n )\n }\n\n // arm → pairKey → rows\n const byArm = new Map<string, Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>>()\n const armsSeen = new Set<string>()\n for (const row of rows) {\n armsSeen.add(row.arm)\n if (row.arm !== baselineArm && row.arm !== treatmentArm) continue\n const byKey = byArm.get(row.arm) ?? new Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>()\n const group = byKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n group.push(row)\n byKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n byArm.set(row.arm, byKey)\n }\n\n for (const arm of [baselineArm, treatmentArm]) {\n if (!byArm.has(arm)) {\n const seen = [...armsSeen].sort().join(', ') || '<none>'\n throw new ValidationError(`pairArms: no rows for arm '${arm}' (arms present: ${seen})`)\n }\n }\n\n const baselineByKey = byArm.get(baselineArm)!\n const treatmentByKey = byArm.get(treatmentArm)!\n\n const allKeys = [...new Set([...baselineByKey.keys(), ...treatmentByKey.keys()])].sort()\n const pairs: MatchedPair[] = []\n const unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[] = []\n const unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[] = []\n for (const pairKey of allKeys) {\n const b = baselineByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n const t = treatmentByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n\n if (b.length <= 1 && t.length <= 1) {\n if (b.length === 1 && t.length === 1) {\n const baseline = b[0]!\n const treatment = t[0]!\n if (baseline.repKey !== undefined || treatment.repKey !== undefined) {\n if (\n baseline.repKey === undefined ||\n treatment.repKey === undefined ||\n baseline.repKey !== treatment.repKey\n ) {\n unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n continue\n }\n }\n pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: 0, baseline, treatment })\n } else {\n unpairedBaseline.push(...b)\n unpairedTreatment.push(...t)\n }\n continue\n }\n\n const bByRep = indexByRepKey(b, pairKey, baselineArm)\n const tByRep = indexByRepKey(t, pairKey, treatmentArm)\n const repKeys = [...new Set([...bByRep.keys(), ...tByRep.keys()])].sort()\n let repIndex = 0\n for (const repKey of repKeys) {\n const baseline = bByRep.get(repKey)\n const treatment = tByRep.get(repKey)\n if (baseline !== undefined && treatment !== undefined) {\n pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: repIndex++, baseline, treatment })\n } else if (baseline !== undefined) {\n unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n } else if (treatment !== undefined) {\n unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n }\n }\n }\n\n return { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment }\n}\n\n/** Index a multi-rep (pairKey, arm) group by `repKey`, enforcing that every\n * row carries one and that no repKey repeats within the group. */\nfunction indexByRepKey(\n group: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n pairKey: string,\n arm: string,\n): Map<string, PairedArmRow> {\n const byRep = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n for (const row of group) {\n if (row.repKey === undefined) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `pairArms: pairKey '${pairKey}' has multiple reps in an arm, but a row in arm '${arm}' ` +\n `is missing repKey — multi-rep items require an explicit repKey on every row so reps ` +\n `pair by identity (pairing reps by outcome or by index would bias the paired statistics)`,\n )\n }\n if (byRep.has(row.repKey)) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `pairArms: duplicate repKey '${row.repKey}' for pairKey '${pairKey}' in arm '${arm}' — ` +\n `(pairKey, repKey) must uniquely identify a rep within an arm`,\n )\n }\n byRep.set(row.repKey, row)\n }\n return byRep\n}\n\n/** Paired pass/fail comparison over the pairs where BOTH sides carry `pass`. */\nexport interface PairedCorrectness {\n /** Discordant pairs where the treatment passed and the baseline failed. */\n b10: number\n /** Discordant pairs where the baseline passed and the treatment failed. */\n b01: number\n /** Exact McNemar significance over the paired outcomes (`b === b10`, `c === b01`). */\n mcnemar: McNemarResult\n /** Paired effect size: p(treatment) − p(baseline) with a paired-variance CI. */\n riskDifference: RiskDifferenceResult\n}\n\n/** Paired delta summary for one named metric (delta = treatment − baseline). */\nexport interface PairedMetricDelta {\n name: string\n /** Pairs where BOTH sides carry a finite value for this metric. */\n n: number\n /** Pairs where at least one side does not carry the metric. */\n nMissing: number\n /** Median paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n medianDelta: number | null\n /** Mean paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n meanDelta: number | null\n /** Bootstrap CI on the paired delta (`pairedBootstrap`); null when\n * `n === 0` — a zero-width [0, 0] interval on no data would read as a\n * measured tight null. */\n bootstrapCi: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n /** Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the paired deltas; null when `n === 0`. */\n wilcoxon: { w: number; p: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface ComparePairedArmsOptions extends PairArmsOptions {\n /** Metrics to compare. Default: every metric name observed on any matched\n * pair, sorted. A name that appears on no pair is still reported (with\n * `n = 0`) so a misspelled metric is visible instead of vanishing. */\n metricNames?: string[]\n /** Passed through to `pairedBootstrap` — set `seed` for reproducible CIs. */\n bootstrap?: PairedBootstrapOptions\n}\n\nexport interface PairedArmsComparison {\n nPairs: number\n nUnpairedBaseline: number\n nUnpairedTreatment: number\n /** null when no matched pair carries `pass` on both sides — a pass/fail\n * verdict over rows that never measured pass/fail would be fabricated. */\n correctness: PairedCorrectness | null\n metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Full matched-pair arm comparison: pair via {@link pairArms}, then compose\n * the paired estimators from `statistics` over the matched pairs.\n *\n * Correctness uses only the pairs where both sides carry `pass` (`mcnemar.n`\n * is that subset's size); each metric uses only the pairs where both sides\n * carry a finite value for it, with the remainder counted in `nMissing`.\n * Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout.\n *\n * Fail-loud: inherits {@link pairArms}'s unknown-arm throw, and throws on a\n * non-finite metric value — silently treating corrupt telemetry as \"metric\n * absent\" would misreport it as missing coverage.\n */\nexport function comparePairedArms(\n rows: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n opts: ComparePairedArmsOptions,\n): PairedArmsComparison {\n const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(rows, opts)\n\n let correctness: PairedCorrectness | null = null\n const baselinePass: number[] = []\n const treatmentPass: number[] = []\n for (const pair of pairs) {\n if (pair.baseline.pass === undefined || pair.treatment.pass === undefined) continue\n baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0)\n treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0)\n }\n if (baselinePass.length > 0) {\n const mc = mcnemar(baselinePass, treatmentPass)\n correctness = {\n b10: mc.b,\n b01: mc.c,\n mcnemar: mc,\n riskDifference: pairedRiskDifference(baselinePass, treatmentPass),\n }\n }\n\n const metricNames =\n opts.metricNames ??\n [\n ...new Set(\n pairs.flatMap((p) => [\n ...Object.keys(p.baseline.metrics ?? {}),\n ...Object.keys(p.treatment.metrics ?? {}),\n ]),\n ),\n ].sort()\n\n const metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[] = metricNames.map((name) => {\n const before: number[] = []\n const after: number[] = []\n let nMissing = 0\n for (const pair of pairs) {\n const b = metricValue(pair.baseline, name)\n const t = metricValue(pair.treatment, name)\n if (b === undefined || t === undefined) {\n nMissing++\n continue\n }\n before.push(b)\n after.push(t)\n }\n const bootstrapCi = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts.bootstrap)\n return {\n name,\n n: before.length,\n nMissing,\n medianDelta: bootstrapCi?.median ?? null,\n meanDelta: bootstrapCi?.mean ?? null,\n bootstrapCi,\n wilcoxon: before.length === 0 ? null : wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after),\n }\n })\n\n return {\n nPairs: pairs.length,\n nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,\n nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,\n correctness,\n metricDeltas,\n }\n}\n\nexport interface MatchedRunRecordPair {\n pairKey: string\n repKey: string\n baseline: RunRecord\n treatment: RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface PairRunRecordsResult {\n pairs: MatchedRunRecordPair[]\n unpairedBaseline: RunRecord[]\n unpairedTreatment: RunRecord[]\n}\n\ninterface RunRecordArmRow extends PairedArmRow {\n run: RunRecord\n repKey: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Pair two RunRecord arms by the identity of the evaluated work:\n * `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * Falling back to array order, candidate id, or experiment id can compare\n * different tasks and fabricate lift. Duplicate identities throw.\n */\nexport function pairRunRecords(\n baselineRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n treatmentRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n): PairRunRecordsResult {\n const baselineRows = runRecordArmRows(baselineRuns, 'baseline')\n const treatmentRows = runRecordArmRows(treatmentRuns, 'treatment')\n validateRunRecordArmRows(baselineRows, 'baseline')\n validateRunRecordArmRows(treatmentRows, 'treatment')\n if (baselineRows.length === 0 || treatmentRows.length === 0) {\n return {\n pairs: [],\n unpairedBaseline: baselineRows.map((row) => row.run),\n unpairedTreatment: treatmentRows.map((row) => row.run),\n }\n }\n\n const result = pairArms([...baselineRows, ...treatmentRows], {\n baselineArm: 'baseline',\n treatmentArm: 'treatment',\n })\n return {\n pairs: result.pairs.map((pair) => {\n const baseline = pair.baseline as RunRecordArmRow\n const treatment = pair.treatment as RunRecordArmRow\n return {\n pairKey: pair.pairKey,\n repKey: baseline.repKey,\n baseline: baseline.run,\n treatment: treatment.run,\n }\n }),\n unpairedBaseline: result.unpairedBaseline.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n unpairedTreatment: result.unpairedTreatment.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n }\n}\n\nfunction runRecordArmRows(runs: readonly RunRecord[], arm: string): RunRecordArmRow[] {\n return runs.map((run) => {\n const scenarioId = run.scenarioId.trim()\n if (!scenarioId) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `pairRunRecords: run '${run.runId}' is missing scenarioId; paired comparisons require explicit scenario identity`,\n )\n }\n return {\n pairKey: JSON.stringify([run.experimentId, scenarioId]),\n repKey: String(run.seed),\n arm,\n run,\n }\n })\n}\n\nfunction validateRunRecordArmRows(rows: readonly RunRecordArmRow[], arm: string): void {\n const byPairKey = new Map<string, RunRecordArmRow[]>()\n for (const row of rows) {\n const group = byPairKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n group.push(row)\n byPairKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n }\n for (const [pairKey, group] of byPairKey) {\n if (group.length > 1) indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm)\n }\n}\n\nfunction metricValue(row: PairedArmRow, name: string): number | undefined {\n const v = row.metrics?.[name]\n if (v === undefined) return undefined\n if (!Number.isFinite(v)) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`,\n )\n }\n return 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- {"version":3,"file":"paired-binary-Q36bhn2R.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/statistics/paired-binary.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { regularizedIncompleteBeta } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport { binomialSignTwoSided, zQuantile } from './internal'\n\n// ── Binomial proportion + paired-binary + coding-eval estimators ─────\n//\n// The paired family above (pairedBootstrap/pairedTTest/wilcoxonSignedRank)\n// operates on continuous scores. Pass/fail A/B comparisons — \"does treatment\n// X raise the success RATE vs control\" — are binary and paired, so they need\n// their own correct estimators: McNemar for significance (only the discordant\n// pairs carry signal), the paired risk difference for effect size, Wilson for\n// a single-arm proportion CI, and pass@k for the standard k-sample coding-eval\n// metric. The normal approximation is wrong for proportions near 0/1 and for\n// the small discordant counts typical of eval runs, so these are exact /\n// Wilson-based, not Wald.\n\n/** A binomial proportion estimate with a confidence interval. */\nexport interface ProportionInterval {\n /** Point estimate successes / n; 0 is a compatibility placeholder when n = 0. */\n estimate: number\n /** Lower bound, clamped to [0, 1]. */\n lower: number\n /** Upper bound, clamped to [0, 1]. */\n upper: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilson score interval for a binomial proportion. Correct at small n and near\n * 0/1, where the normal (Wald) approximation produces bounds outside [0, 1] and\n * understates coverage. Use this for any pass-rate / hit-rate / realness-rate\n * CI — the continuous `confidenceInterval` assumes the wrong distribution for a\n * proportion. Counts must be finite nonnegative integers, successes cannot exceed\n * n, and confidence must lie strictly between zero and one. With n = 0 the\n * interval is the full [0, 1] support: no rate is ruled out. The estimate stays\n * 0 for compatibility, not as a measured failure rate; retain n alongside it.\n */\nexport function wilson(successes: number, n: number, confidence = 0.95): ProportionInterval {\n if (!Number.isSafeInteger(n) || n < 0) {\n throw new Error('wilson: n must be a finite nonnegative integer')\n }\n if (!Number.isSafeInteger(successes) || successes < 0 || successes > n) {\n throw new Error(`wilson: successes (${successes}) must be in [0, ${n}]`)\n }\n if (!Number.isFinite(confidence) || confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {\n throw new Error('wilson: confidence must be between zero and one')\n }\n if (n === 0) return { estimate: 0, lower: 0, upper: 1 }\n const z = zQuantile(1 - (1 - confidence) / 2)\n const p = successes / n\n const z2 = z * z\n const denom = 1 + z2 / n\n const center = (p + z2 / (2 * n)) / denom\n const half = (z * Math.sqrt((p * (1 - p) + z2 / (4 * n)) / n)) / denom\n return {\n estimate: p,\n lower: Math.max(0, center - half),\n upper: Math.min(1, center + half),\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Are these per-item outcomes binary (every value exactly 0 or 1)?\n *\n * The discriminator a promotion gate needs before choosing a paired statistic.\n * On binary outcomes the paired delta vector lives in {-1, 0, +1} and is\n * normally dominated by zeros (both arms solve, or both arms miss, most items),\n * so its MEDIAN is pinned at exactly 0 no matter how large the real shift in\n * success rate is — and a bootstrap CI on that median collapses to [0, 0].\n * A gate keying on `ci.low > threshold` is then structurally unable to see\n * either a gain or a regression. Detect this shape and switch to the\n * paired-binary estimators ({@link mcnemar}, {@link pairedRiskDifference})\n * instead of silently answering \"no\" forever.\n *\n * Empty input is NOT binary: there is no evidence of the outcome's shape, and\n * defaulting an empty vector into the binary branch would pick a statistic on\n * no data at all.\n *\n * NOT the right discriminator for a gate. It recognises the literal {0, 1}\n * encoding and nothing else, so a pass/fail dimension emitted on 0-100 — which\n * judges in this codebase do routinely — reads as non-binary, and a single\n * partial-credit score in an otherwise pass/fail vector flips it to false while\n * leaving the median just as blind. Gates want {@link pairedBinaryScale} (any\n * two-point encoding). This predicate remains for callers that specifically\n * mean \"literally 0/1\".\n */\nexport function isBinaryOutcomeVector(values: ArrayLike<number>): boolean {\n if (values.length === 0) return false\n for (let i = 0; i < values.length; i++) {\n const v = values[i]!\n if (v !== 0 && v !== 1) return false\n }\n return true\n}\n\n/** Result of a McNemar paired-binary significance test. */\nexport interface McNemarResult {\n /** Total paired observations. */\n n: number\n /** Discordant pairs (b + c) — the only ones that carry signal. */\n nDiscordant: number\n /** Pairs where treatment succeeded and control failed (\"newly correct\"). */\n b: number\n /** Pairs where control succeeded and treatment failed (\"newly wrong\"). */\n c: number\n /** Continuity-corrected chi-square statistic (reference; exact p drives the call). */\n statistic: number\n /** Two-sided p-value. Exact (binomial sign test on discordant pairs). */\n pValue: number\n}\n\n/**\n * McNemar's test for paired binary outcomes — the correct significance test for\n * \"does treatment change the success rate vs control on the SAME items\". Only\n * discordant pairs (one arm right, the other wrong) carry information; concordant\n * pairs are uninformative, so a paired t-test / two-proportion z-test on the raw\n * rates is wrong here. The p-value is exact: under H0 the b \"treatment-wins\" are\n * Binomial(b + c, 0.5), so the two-sided p is the doubled binomial tail — correct\n * at the small discordant counts typical of eval runs (no continuity-corrected\n * chi-square approximation needed, though it is returned as `statistic` for\n * reference). Inputs are paired 0/1 (or boolean) arrays, control first to match\n * the module's (before, after) convention. Throws on unequal lengths.\n */\nexport function mcnemar(\n control: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n treatment: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n): McNemarResult {\n if (control.length !== treatment.length) {\n throw new Error(`mcnemar: unequal sample sizes (${control.length} vs ${treatment.length})`)\n }\n const n = control.length\n let b = 0 // treatment 1, control 0\n let c = 0 // treatment 0, control 1\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n const ctrl = control[i] ? 1 : 0\n const treat = treatment[i] ? 1 : 0\n if (treat === 1 && ctrl === 0) b++\n else if (treat === 0 && ctrl === 1) c++\n }\n const nDiscordant = b + c\n const statistic = nDiscordant === 0 ? 0 : (Math.abs(b - c) - 1) ** 2 / nDiscordant\n return { n, nDiscordant, b, c, statistic, pValue: binomialSignTwoSided(b, c) }\n}\n\n/** A paired binary effect size (treatment rate − control rate) with a CI. */\nexport interface RiskDifferenceResult {\n /** Total paired observations. */\n n: number\n /** Discordant pairs: treatment-win count. */\n b: number\n /** Discordant pairs: control-win count. */\n c: number\n /** Paired risk difference (b − c) / n; 0 is a placeholder when n = 0. */\n riskDifference: number\n /** Lower bound of the CI, clamped to [-1, 1]. */\n lower: number\n /** Upper bound of the CI, clamped to [-1, 1]. */\n upper: number\n /** Confidence level used. */\n confidence: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired risk difference (the effect-size companion to {@link mcnemar}): the\n * change in success rate p(treatment) − p(control) on matched items, which for\n * paired binary data equals (b − c) / n. The CI uses the paired variance from\n * the discordant counts, not the independent-samples formula (which overstates\n * the interval by ignoring the pairing). Inputs are paired 0/1 (or boolean)\n * arrays, control first. Throws on unequal lengths. With no pairs, returns the\n * full [-1, 1] support and a compatibility point estimate of 0, not equivalence.\n *\n * REPORTING ONLY — do NOT decide a promotion on this interval. The CI is a Wald\n * normal approximation, which badly UNDERCOVERS when only a handful of pairs are\n * discordant: at n = 3 with b = 2, c = 0 it returns [0.133, 1.000], excluding 0,\n * while McNemar's exact test on the same data gives p = 0.50. A gate keying on\n * `lower > 0` would promote noise. Use {@link pairedRiskDifferenceExact}, whose\n * interval is dual to the exact test by construction, for any decision.\n */\nexport function pairedRiskDifference(\n control: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n treatment: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n confidence = 0.95,\n): RiskDifferenceResult {\n if (control.length !== treatment.length) {\n throw new Error(\n `pairedRiskDifference: unequal sample sizes (${control.length} vs ${treatment.length})`,\n )\n }\n const n = control.length\n if (n === 0) return { n: 0, b: 0, c: 0, riskDifference: 0, lower: -1, upper: 1, confidence }\n let b = 0\n let c = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n const ctrl = control[i] ? 1 : 0\n const treat = treatment[i] ? 1 : 0\n if (treat === 1 && ctrl === 0) b++\n else if (treat === 0 && ctrl === 1) c++\n }\n const rd = (b - c) / n\n const variance = (b + c - (b - c) ** 2 / n) / (n * n)\n const z = zQuantile(1 - (1 - confidence) / 2)\n const half = z * Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, variance))\n return {\n n,\n b,\n c,\n riskDifference: rd,\n lower: Math.max(-1, rd - half),\n upper: Math.min(1, rd + half),\n confidence,\n }\n}\n\n/** A paired binary effect size with an EXACT interval and the exact test that\n * bounds it — one object so a caller cannot read the estimate without the\n * significance it is entitled to. */\nexport interface ExactRiskDifferenceResult {\n /** Total paired observations. */\n n: number\n /** Discordant pairs: treatment-win count. */\n b: number\n /** Discordant pairs: control-win count. */\n c: number\n /** Discordant pairs (b + c) — the only ones carrying information. */\n nDiscordant: number\n /** Paired risk difference (b − c) / n; 0 is a placeholder when n = 0. */\n riskDifference: number\n /** Exact conditional CI lower bound: -1 with no pairs; 0 with only concordant pairs. */\n lower: number\n /** Exact conditional CI upper bound: 1 with no pairs; 0 with only concordant pairs. */\n upper: number\n /** Confidence level used. */\n confidence: number\n /** McNemar's exact two-sided p-value on the same discordant counts. */\n pValue: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired risk difference with the EXACT CONDITIONAL interval — the estimator a\n * promotion gate may decide on.\n *\n * Conditional on the number of discordant pairs m = b + c, the treatment-win\n * count b is Binomial(m, π) with π = P(treatment wins | discordant), and the\n * risk difference is an exact reparameterisation: RD = (2π − 1)·m/n. So a\n * Clopper-Pearson exact interval for π maps straight onto RD. This buys the\n * property the Wald interval in {@link pairedRiskDifference} does not have:\n *\n * **`lower > 0` ⟺ McNemar's exact test rejects at α = 1 − confidence.**\n *\n * Clopper-Pearson excludes π = 0.5 exactly when the two-sided exact binomial\n * test of π = 0.5 rejects, and that test IS {@link mcnemar}'s p-value — so the\n * interval and the test can never disagree, and a gate keyed on `lower` cannot\n * promote what the exact test refuses. The exact p is returned in the same\n * object so the two are impossible to compute apart.\n *\n * The interval is conservative (exact intervals over-cover; conditioning on m\n * discards the concordant pairs' information about m itself). That is the\n * correct direction for a promotion gate: it refuses more often, never less.\n *\n * With n = 0, returns the full [-1, 1] support, p = 1, and a compatibility\n * point estimate of 0. With n > 0 and m = 0, π is not identified: the result\n * is the degenerate [0, 0] with p = 1. That is NOT evidence of equivalence —\n * callers must treat a zero-width interval as \"cannot decide\", not as \"no\n * difference\". Inputs are paired 0/1 (or boolean) arrays, control first.\n * Throws on unequal lengths.\n */\nexport function pairedRiskDifferenceExact(\n control: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n treatment: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n confidence = 0.95,\n): ExactRiskDifferenceResult {\n if (control.length !== treatment.length) {\n throw new Error(\n `pairedRiskDifferenceExact: unequal sample sizes (${control.length} vs ${treatment.length})`,\n )\n }\n if (confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {\n throw new Error(`pairedRiskDifferenceExact: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`)\n }\n const n = control.length\n if (n === 0) {\n return {\n n: 0,\n b: 0,\n c: 0,\n nDiscordant: 0,\n riskDifference: 0,\n lower: -1,\n upper: 1,\n confidence,\n pValue: 1,\n }\n }\n let b = 0\n let c = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n const ctrl = control[i] ? 1 : 0\n const treat = treatment[i] ? 1 : 0\n if (treat === 1 && ctrl === 0) b++\n else if (treat === 0 && ctrl === 1) c++\n }\n const m = b + c\n const riskDifference = (b - c) / n\n const pValue = binomialSignTwoSided(b, c)\n if (m === 0) {\n return { n, b, c, nDiscordant: 0, riskDifference: 0, lower: 0, upper: 0, confidence, pValue }\n }\n const alpha = 1 - confidence\n const piLow = b === 0 ? 0 : betaQuantile(alpha / 2, b, m - b + 1)\n const piHigh = b === m ? 1 : betaQuantile(1 - alpha / 2, b + 1, m - b)\n const scale = m / n\n return {\n n,\n b,\n c,\n nDiscordant: m,\n riskDifference,\n lower: Math.max(-1, (2 * piLow - 1) * scale),\n upper: Math.min(1, (2 * piHigh - 1) * scale),\n confidence,\n pValue,\n }\n}\n\n/** Inverse regularized incomplete beta by bisection on\n * {@link regularizedIncompleteBeta}, which is monotone increasing in x. 80\n * halvings of [0,1] resolve to ~8e-25, far past the continued fraction's own\n * 3e-15 tolerance, so the quantile is as exact as the CDF it inverts. */\nfunction betaQuantile(p: number, a: number, b: number): number {\n if (p <= 0) return 0\n if (p >= 1) return 1\n let lo = 0\n let hi = 1\n for (let i = 0; i < 80; i++) {\n const mid = (lo + hi) / 2\n if (regularizedIncompleteBeta(mid, a, b) < p) lo = mid\n else hi = mid\n }\n return (lo + hi) / 2\n}\n\n/** A paired binary effect size with an interval that is valid at a NONZERO\n * margin — the estimator a noninferiority decision may be made on. */\nexport interface ScoreRiskDifferenceResult {\n /** Total paired observations. */\n n: number\n /** Discordant pairs: treatment-win count. */\n b: number\n /** Discordant pairs: control-win count. */\n c: number\n /** Discordant pairs (b + c). */\n nDiscordant: number\n /** Paired risk difference (b − c) / n; 0 is a placeholder when n = 0. */\n riskDifference: number\n /** Score-interval lower bound on the population risk difference. */\n lower: number\n /** Score-interval upper bound on the population risk difference. */\n upper: number\n /** Confidence level used. */\n confidence: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Constrained MLE of q = P(treatment loses) under the hypothesis RD = `delta`.\n *\n * Profiling the two concordant cells out of the multinomial leaves\n * `L(q) = b·log(q+delta) + c·log(q) + e·log(1 − 2q − delta)` with `e = n − b − c`,\n * whose stationary point is the positive root of\n * `2n·q² − [(b + c) − delta·(b + 3c + 2e)]·q − c·delta·(1 − delta) = 0`.\n * At `delta = 0` this returns `(b + c) / 2n`, the familiar null.\n */\nfunction constrainedLossRate(b: number, c: number, n: number, delta: number): number {\n const e = n - b - c\n const quadratic = 2 * n\n const linear = -(b + c - delta * (b + 3 * c + 2 * e))\n const constant = -c * delta * (1 - delta)\n const discriminant = linear * linear - 4 * quadratic * constant\n const root = discriminant > 0 ? Math.sqrt(discriminant) : 0\n const q = (-linear + root) / (2 * quadratic)\n // Clamp into the region where all four cell probabilities stay non-negative.\n return Math.min(Math.max(q, Math.max(0, -delta)), Math.max(0, (1 - delta) / 2))\n}\n\n/** Tango's score statistic for H0: RD = `delta`. `Var(b − c) = n·(2q + delta −\n * delta²)` under that hypothesis, evaluated at the constrained MLE of q. */\nfunction tangoScore(b: number, c: number, n: number, delta: number): number {\n const numerator = b - c - n * delta\n const q = constrainedLossRate(b, c, n, delta)\n const variance = n * (2 * q + delta * (1 - delta))\n if (!(variance > 0)) {\n if (numerator === 0) return 0\n return numerator > 0 ? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY : Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY\n }\n return numerator / Math.sqrt(variance)\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired risk difference with TANGO'S (1998) SCORE INTERVAL — the estimator a\n * promotion gate may decide on **at a nonzero margin**.\n *\n * {@link pairedRiskDifferenceExact} conditions on the observed discordant count\n * `m = b + c`, builds a Clopper-Pearson interval for the win share among those\n * `m` pairs, and multiplies by the observed `m/n`. That is exact for testing\n * RD = 0 — it is dual to McNemar — but it is NOT a confidence interval for the\n * population risk difference at a nonzero margin, because the sampling\n * variability of `m/n` itself is discarded. The gap is not academic: with the\n * production caller's `pairedDeltaThreshold: -0.05`, a process whose true risk\n * difference sits exactly on that margin clears a nominal-95 % `lower > margin`\n * check 24.75 % of the time at n = 40 and 43.95 % at n = 76 (2000 replicates\n * each) when the conditional interval decides.\n *\n * Tango's interval inverts the score test of RD = delta, which estimates the\n * nuisance loss rate under each hypothesised delta instead of fixing it at the\n * observed value, so `m` contributes its own uncertainty. It is the method\n * `ratesci::scorepairci` uses for paired risk-difference noninferiority, and it\n * is not conditional, so it stays valid as the margin moves away from zero.\n *\n * The bounds are found by bisecting `tangoScore(delta) = ±z` — the score is\n * monotone decreasing in delta, so each crossing is unique. Inputs are paired\n * 0/1 (or boolean) arrays, control first. Throws on unequal lengths.\n */\nexport function pairedRiskDifferenceScore(\n control: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n treatment: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n confidence = 0.95,\n): ScoreRiskDifferenceResult {\n if (control.length !== treatment.length) {\n throw new Error(\n `pairedRiskDifferenceScore: unequal sample sizes (${control.length} vs ${treatment.length})`,\n )\n }\n if (confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {\n throw new Error(`pairedRiskDifferenceScore: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`)\n }\n const n = control.length\n if (n === 0) {\n return { n: 0, b: 0, c: 0, nDiscordant: 0, riskDifference: 0, lower: -1, upper: 1, confidence }\n }\n let b = 0\n let c = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n const ctrl = control[i] ? 1 : 0\n const treat = treatment[i] ? 1 : 0\n if (treat === 1 && ctrl === 0) b++\n else if (treat === 0 && ctrl === 1) c++\n }\n const riskDifference = (b - c) / n\n const z = zQuantile(1 - (1 - confidence) / 2)\n\n // Lower bound: the smallest delta still inside the interval, i.e. the root of\n // score(delta) = +z on [-1, riskDifference]. score(riskDifference) = 0 < z, so\n // the right endpoint is always inside and the bisection is well posed.\n let lo = -1\n let hi = riskDifference\n // 64 halvings resolve the [-1, 1] search interval below 6e-20, past the\n // precision available to the score calculation. More iterations only\n // repeat identical floating-point values while multiplying every gate\n // decision's cost.\n for (let i = 0; i < 64; i++) {\n const mid = (lo + hi) / 2\n if (tangoScore(b, c, n, mid) > z) lo = mid\n else hi = mid\n }\n const lower = (lo + hi) / 2\n\n // Upper bound: root of score(delta) = -z on [riskDifference, 1].\n let ulo = riskDifference\n let uhi = 1\n for (let i = 0; i < 64; i++) {\n const mid = (ulo + uhi) / 2\n if (tangoScore(b, c, n, mid) > -z) ulo = mid\n else uhi = mid\n }\n const upper = (ulo + uhi) / 2\n\n return {\n n,\n b,\n c,\n nDiscordant: b + c,\n riskDifference,\n lower: Math.max(-1, lower),\n upper: Math.min(1, upper),\n confidence,\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * The common positive level `s` such that EVERY value across both paired arms is\n * exactly 0 or `s` — i.e. the outcome is pass/fail, whatever encoding it arrived\n * in. Returns null when the outcomes are not two-point, when the two arms use\n * different levels, or when no positive value was observed at all (all-zero\n * arms: the level is not identified, and there is nothing to decide anyway).\n *\n * This is the scale-aware successor to {@link isBinaryOutcomeVector}, which only\n * recognises literal {0, 1}. Judges in this codebase emit dimensions on 0-100 as\n * well as [0,1] (see `detectScale` in `campaign/gates/statistical-heldout.ts`),\n * so a pass/fail dimension routinely arrives as {0, 100} and a {0,1}-only test\n * silently sends it down the median path that cannot see it. Any positive level\n * is accepted, not just 1 and 100: for a two-point {0, s} outcome the mean paired\n * delta is exactly s·(b − c)/n, so the binary estimators apply after dividing by\n * s and rescaling the result back into the caller's native units.\n *\n * Non-finite values ⇒ null: an unusable outcome must not be classified as a\n * clean pass/fail shape.\n */\nexport function pairedBinaryScale(\n before: ArrayLike<number>,\n after: ArrayLike<number>,\n): number | null {\n let level: number | null = null\n for (const arm of [before, after]) {\n for (let i = 0; i < arm.length; i++) {\n const v = arm[i]!\n if (!Number.isFinite(v)) return null\n if (v === 0) continue\n if (v < 0) return null\n if (level === null) level = v\n else if (v !== level) return null\n }\n }\n return level\n}\n\n/**\n * Unbiased pass@k for code generation (Chen et al. 2021, \"Evaluating Large\n * Language Models Trained on Code\"). Given `n` independent samples for one\n * problem of which `c` pass, the probability that at least one of a random k of\n * them passes is 1 − C(n−c, k) / C(n, k). Estimating pass@k as \"did any of the\n * first k pass\" is biased high at small n; this is the variance-reduced estimator\n * averaged implicitly over all k-subsets. Average the per-problem values across\n * the suite for the corpus pass@k. Computed in the numerically stable product\n * form. Requires 1 ≤ k ≤ n and 0 ≤ c ≤ n.\n */\nexport function passAtK(n: number, c: number, k: number): number {\n if (!Number.isInteger(n) || !Number.isInteger(c) || !Number.isInteger(k)) {\n throw new Error(`passAtK: n, c, k must be integers (got n=${n}, c=${c}, k=${k})`)\n }\n if (k < 1 || k > n || c < 0 || c > n) {\n throw new Error(`passAtK: require 1 ≤ k ≤ n and 0 ≤ c ≤ n (got n=${n}, c=${c}, k=${k})`)\n }\n if (n - c < k) return 1\n let prob = 1\n for (let i = n - c + 1; i <= n; i++) prob *= 1 - k / i\n return 1 - 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- {"version":3,"file":"paired-tests-jbwPdSz5.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/statistics/paired-tests.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Paired significance tests on continuous scores: the paired t-test, the\n * promotion-gate paired bootstrap, the exact sign test, and the package-wide\n * paired-delta decision statistic.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { studentTCdf } from '../math/student-t'\nimport { assertFiniteSample, binomialHalfUpperTail, makeRng, medianInPlace } from './internal'\n\nexport interface PairedTTestResult {\n /** Null when the statistic is undefined — see {@link pairedTTest}. */\n t: number | null\n df: number\n /** Null exactly when `t` is null. */\n p: number | null\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired t-test — before/after measurements on the SAME items.\n * Pairing removes inter-item variance, giving tighter significance than\n * an unpaired test when comparing prompt v1 vs prompt v2 on identical\n * scenarios.\n *\n * Returns `t = p = null` where the statistic is undefined: fewer than two\n * pairs, or a non-zero constant delta whose observed variance is zero. A\n * constant shift carries no information about the variance it would have to\n * be compared against, so the honest answer is \"undefined\", not `p = 0` —\n * three observations cannot buy absolute certainty. This is the same contract\n * {@link pairedCohensDz} states for the same condition. An all-zero delta is\n * different: it is a measured null, and returns `t = 0, p = 1`.\n */\nexport function pairedTTest(before: number[], after: number[]): PairedTTestResult {\n if (before.length !== after.length) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `pairedTTest: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n )\n }\n assertFiniteSample('pairedTTest', 'before', before)\n assertFiniteSample('pairedTTest', 'after', after)\n const n = before.length\n if (n < 2) return { t: null, df: 0, p: null }\n\n const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n const mean = diffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n const variance = diffs.reduce((acc, d) => acc + (d - mean) ** 2, 0) / (n - 1)\n const se = Math.sqrt(variance / n)\n if (se === 0) {\n return mean === 0 ? { t: 0, df: n - 1, p: 1 } : { t: null, df: n - 1, p: null }\n }\n\n const t = mean / se\n const df = n - 1\n const p = 2 * (1 - studentTCdf(Math.abs(t), df))\n return { t, df, p }\n}\n\n// ── Paired bootstrap (promotion-gate effect size) ────────────────────\n\nexport interface PairedBootstrapResult {\n /** Number of paired observations. */\n n: number\n /** Median of paired deltas (after − before). */\n median: number\n /** Mean of paired deltas. */\n mean: number\n /** Lower bound of the bootstrap CI on the chosen statistic. */\n low: number\n /** Upper bound of the bootstrap CI on the chosen statistic. */\n high: number\n /** Confidence level used (e.g. 0.95). */\n confidence: number\n /** Number of bootstrap resamples used. */\n resamples: number\n /** False below {@link BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N}. See {@link pairedBootstrap}. */\n gateEligible: boolean\n}\n\n/**\n * Pairs below which a percentile bootstrap interval is descriptive spread only.\n *\n * `P(low > 0)` under a true null, against a nominal 2.5 %, measured over 4000\n * seeded trials: 13.53 % at n = 3, 3.52 % at n = 10, 3.10 % at n = 20 on the\n * median; 13.85 %, 4.90 %, 3.80 % on the mean. This is intrinsic to resampling\n * three points, not an implementation error — scipy's BCa gives 16.0 % on the\n * same n = 3 data — so no change to the estimator moves it. Below this floor\n * the decision belongs to the exact sign test or exact signed-rank test.\n */\nexport const BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N = 20\n\nexport interface PairedBootstrapOptions {\n /** Confidence level. Default 0.95. */\n confidence?: number\n /** Bootstrap resample count. Default 2000. */\n resamples?: number\n /** Statistic to bootstrap. Default 'median'. */\n statistic?: 'median' | 'mean'\n /** Deterministic seed. If omitted, derived from the deltas so the interval\n * is reproducible regardless. */\n seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired bootstrap on (after − before) deltas. Returns a CI on the chosen\n * statistic (median by default); pairs are resampled with replacement. Throws\n * on unequal sample sizes.\n *\n * `low > threshold` carries the stated confidence ONLY at `n ≥\n * {@link BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N}`, which `gateEligible` reports. Below it the\n * check fires under a true null several times more often than nominal, so the\n * interval is descriptive spread and a promotion must not turn on it.\n */\nexport function pairedBootstrap(\n before: number[],\n after: number[],\n opts: PairedBootstrapOptions = {},\n): PairedBootstrapResult {\n if (before.length !== after.length) {\n throw new Error(`pairedBootstrap: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`)\n }\n const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n const resamples = opts.resamples ?? 2000\n const statistic = opts.statistic ?? 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With a continuous difference\n * distribution this is the usual directional median test. Exact zero\n * differences are ties and do not enter the binomial denominator. All-tie and\n * empty inputs return p = 1. Every input difference must be finite, and the\n * direction must be chosen explicitly so a caller cannot select it after\n * seeing the signs.\n */\nexport function pairedSignTest(\n differences: readonly number[],\n alternative: SignTestAlternative,\n): PairedSignTestResult {\n if (alternative !== 'greater' && alternative !== 'less') {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `pairedSignTest: alternative must be 'greater' or 'less', got ${alternative}`,\n )\n }\n\n let positive = 0\n let negative = 0\n let ties = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < differences.length; i++) {\n const difference = differences[i]!\n if (!Number.isFinite(difference)) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `pairedSignTest: difference at index ${i} must be finite, got ${difference}`,\n )\n }\n if (difference > 0) positive++\n else if (difference < 0) negative++\n else ties++\n }\n\n const nNonTies = positive + negative\n const successes = alternative === 'greater' ? positive : negative\n return {\n n: differences.length,\n positive,\n negative,\n ties,\n nNonTies,\n alternative,\n pValue: binomialHalfUpperTail(successes, nNonTies),\n }\n}\n\n/** Fraction of paired observations whose delta is an exact tie (|after − before|\n * < 1e-9). Throws on unequal sample sizes; 0 pairs ⇒ 0. */\nexport function pairedDeltaTieFraction(\n before: ArrayLike<number>,\n after: ArrayLike<number>,\n): number {\n if (before.length !== after.length) {\n throw new Error(\n `pairedDeltaTieFraction: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n )\n }\n const n = before.length\n if (n === 0) return 0\n let ties = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n if (Math.abs(after[i]! - before[i]!) < 1e-9) ties++\n }\n return ties / n\n}\n\n/**\n * The paired-delta statistic a DECISION is computed on, package-wide.\n *\n * The mean paired delta is the estimator that answers the question a promotion\n * gate asks — \"by how much did the candidate move the score\" — in the caller's\n * own units, and it equals the aggregate lift everyone quotes. The MEDIAN\n * answers a different question and loses the answer to this one in every regime\n * eval data actually lands in:\n * - TWO-POINT (pass/fail) outcomes on any encoding: the delta vector lives in\n * {−s, 0, +s} dominated by zeros, so the median and its whole bootstrap CI\n * are pinned at exactly 0 however large the shift. (Decide these on\n * {@link pairedRiskDifferenceExact} instead — same estimand, exact interval.)\n * - TIE-DOMINATED outcomes: at half the pairs tied the sample median is 0 by\n * construction, and `ci.low > threshold` then answers \"no\" forever at a\n * non-negative threshold and \"yes\" forever at a negative one.\n * - LOW-CARDINALITY outcomes, even well below half ties: judge dimensions on\n * integer 0-100, and block scores like {⅔, 1} from averaging pass/fail\n * leaves, put the median on a coarse lattice whose bootstrap percentiles\n * land on atoms. 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- {"version":3,"file":"prime-protocol-DcAK9pC8.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/analyst/reply-contract.ts","../src/analyst/prime-protocol.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * The reply grammar an analyst arm holds a model to, independent of transport.\n *\n * One contract serves every arm shape: the inline bridge protocol\n * (`runPrimeExchange`) reads the base fields, and one-shot JSON arms\n * additionally use the strict-envelope and all-rejected knobs. `PrimeReplyContract`\n * in ./prime-protocol is a type alias of this contract, so a consumer written\n * against the prime protocol names the same grammar object.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\n\n/** Verdict of decoding one raw reply row. */\nexport type ReplyRowDecoded<TRow> = { ok: true; row: TRow } | { ok: false; reason: string }\n\n/** A strictly parsed reply envelope: the row array plus retained extras. */\nexport interface ReplyEnvelope {\n rows: readonly unknown[]\n /** Envelope fields beside the rows the arm retains (e.g. a `report` string). */\n extras: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface ReplyContract<TRow> {\n /** Name of the reply's row array, e.g. `blocks` or `findings`. */\n rowsField: string\n /** Row-grammar lines spliced into the first-turn prompt. */\n contractLines: readonly string[]\n /**\n * The same grammar restated for the repair turn, which never carries the\n * evidence. Empty when the arm declares zero repair turns.\n */\n repairContractLines: readonly string[]\n /**\n * Validate and convert one raw row in a single pass. One function rather than\n * a separate validator and constructor, so the two can never disagree about\n * what a valid row is.\n */\n decodeRow(row: unknown, index: number): ReplyRowDecoded<TRow>\n /**\n * Cap on ACCEPTED rows. The cap is applied after decoding, so malformed rows\n * never consume an accepted slot; the surplus is reported as `overflow`.\n * Omit when the consumer's own expansion owns the cap and records the drop.\n */\n maxRows?: number\n /**\n * Strict envelope parse for one-shot JSON arms. Throws on an envelope defect\n * (missing report, unknown key, over-cap row count). When absent, rows are\n * read from `rowsField` on the parsed reply object.\n */\n parseEnvelope?(value: unknown): ReplyEnvelope\n /**\n * What a reply whose EVERY reported row was rejected means. `fail` throws a\n * validation error carrying each rejection; `accept-empty` (the default)\n * keeps the honest empty result beside the recorded rejections.\n */\n whenAllRowsRejected?: 'fail' | 'accept-empty'\n /**\n * Message prefix for the `fail` case, in the contract's own row vocabulary\n * (e.g. \"every reported failure block was malformed\").\n */\n allRejectedMessage?: string\n}\n\n/** One rejected row, indexed as the model reported it. */\nexport interface ReplyRowRejection {\n index: number\n reason: string\n}\n\nexport interface DecodedReply<TRow> {\n rows: TRow[]\n /** Envelope fields beside the rows (empty when the contract has no envelope). */\n extras: Record<string, unknown>\n rejected: ReplyRowRejection[]\n /** Rows the model reported, before decoding or the count cap. */\n reportedRows: number\n /** Valid rows dropped by `maxRows`. */\n overflow: number\n}\n\n/**\n * The per-row half of a decode: validate each raw row under the contract's\n * grammar and cap ACCEPTED rows. Shape before count — a malformed row never\n * consumes an accepted slot. Shared by every consumer of a `ReplyContract`\n * row array, whatever envelope handling surrounds it.\n */\nexport function decodeContractRows<TRow>(\n contract: Pick<ReplyContract<TRow>, 'decodeRow' | 'maxRows'>,\n rawRows: readonly unknown[],\n): { rows: TRow[]; rejected: ReplyRowRejection[]; overflow: number } {\n const rows: TRow[] = []\n const rejected: ReplyRowRejection[] = []\n let overflow = 0\n rawRows.forEach((row, index) => {\n const decoded = contract.decodeRow(row, index)\n if (!decoded.ok) {\n rejected.push({ index, reason: decoded.reason })\n return\n }\n if (contract.maxRows !== undefined && rows.length >= contract.maxRows) {\n overflow += 1\n return\n }\n rows.push(decoded.row)\n })\n return { rows, rejected, overflow }\n}\n\n/**\n * Decode a parsed reply value under a contract: strict envelope when declared,\n * then per-row decoding, then the all-rejected policy.\n */\nexport function decodeReplyRows<TRow>(\n contract: ReplyContract<TRow>,\n value: unknown,\n): DecodedReply<TRow> {\n let rawRows: readonly unknown[]\n let extras: Record<string, unknown> = {}\n if (contract.parseEnvelope) {\n const envelope = contract.parseEnvelope(value)\n rawRows = envelope.rows\n extras = envelope.extras\n } else {\n const record =\n typeof value === 'object' && value !== null && !Array.isArray(value)\n ? (value as Record<string, unknown>)\n : undefined\n const field = record?.[contract.rowsField]\n if (!Array.isArray(field)) {\n throw new ValidationError(`reply has no \"${contract.rowsField}\" array`)\n }\n rawRows = field\n }\n const { rows, rejected, overflow } = decodeContractRows(contract, rawRows)\n if (rows.length === 0 && rawRows.length > 0 && contract.whenAllRowsRejected === 'fail') {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `${contract.allRejectedMessage ?? 'every reported row was malformed'}: ${rejected\n .map((entry) => entry.reason)\n .join(' | ')}`,\n )\n }\n return { rows, extras, rejected, reportedRows: rawRows.length, overflow }\n}\n","import { createHash } from 'node:crypto'\nimport type { CustomTokenPricing } from '../cost-ledger'\nimport type { PrimeBridgeTransport, PrimeBridgeTransportResult } from './prime-bridge-transport'\nimport { decodeContractRows, type ReplyContract, type ReplyRowDecoded } from './reply-contract'\nimport type { AnalystUsageReceipt } from './types'\n\n/**\n * The prime analyst protocol: a one-shot RLM reached through an\n * OpenAI-compatible bridge, given the whole trajectory inline because it has no\n * REPL and no trace tools, answering in one fenced JSON block of short strings.\n *\n * This module owns every part of that protocol that does not depend on what the\n * rows MEAN: prompt and contract composition, the bounded repair turn, reply\n * extraction, row decoding order, the render-measure-fall-back-fail-loud\n * projection ladder, usage normalization, and the protocol identity digest.\n *\n * The cut: the core speaks RAW ROWS and never names a finding type. It knows a\n * prime reply carries an `answer` string plus an array of rows under a named\n * field, and that each row is decoded by a caller-supplied function. Consumers\n * — the CodeTraceBench benchmark runner here, a span-grounded trace analyzer\n * elsewhere — map decoded rows into their own finding shape on the way out. So\n * nothing in this file may import a block type, a finding type, or a trace\n * store, and no consumer needs another copy of the protocol.\n */\n\n// ── Reply contract ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * The prime reply grammar is the general analyst reply contract: these aliases\n * keep every prime-protocol consumer compiling against the shared type in\n * ./reply-contract. The exchange below reads the base fields (`rowsField`,\n * contract lines, `decodeRow`, `maxRows`); the strict-envelope knobs serve\n * one-shot JSON arms and are inert here.\n */\nexport type PrimeRowDecoded<TRow> = ReplyRowDecoded<TRow>\n\nexport type PrimeReplyContract<TRow> = ReplyContract<TRow>\n\n// ── Prompt composition ───────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface PrimePromptSpec {\n question: string\n /** Task definition spliced under a `TASK DEFINITION:` heading. Omit when the question is the whole task. */\n taskDefinition?: string\n contractLines: readonly string[]\n /** Line introducing the trajectory, e.g. `TRAJECTORY (trace_id X; 12 assistant step spans; ...):`. */\n trajectoryHeader: string\n renderedTrajectory: string\n /** Material appended after the trajectory, e.g. the final-verification spans. */\n trailer?: string\n}\n\nexport function buildPrimePrompt(spec: PrimePromptSpec): string {\n return [\n `QUESTION: ${spec.question}`,\n '',\n ...(spec.taskDefinition === undefined ? [] : ['TASK DEFINITION:', spec.taskDefinition, '']),\n ...spec.contractLines,\n '',\n spec.trajectoryHeader,\n spec.renderedTrajectory,\n ...(spec.trailer === undefined ? [] : ['', spec.trailer]),\n ].join('\\n')\n}\n\nexport interface PrimeRepairPromptSpec {\n defect: string\n previousReply: string\n repairContractLines: readonly string[]\n}\n\n/** Carries the malformed reply and the contract — never the trajectory. */\nexport function buildPrimeRepairPrompt(spec: PrimeRepairPromptSpec): string {\n return [\n 'Your previous reply to a trace-analysis task was structurally malformed and could not be parsed',\n `(${spec.defect}). Below is your previous reply verbatim. Re-emit ONLY the corrected JSON — one`,\n 'fenced ```json block, no other text, no tools. The JSON object has exactly two fields:',\n ...spec.repairContractLines,\n '',\n 'PREVIOUS REPLY:',\n spec.previousReply,\n ].join('\\n')\n}\n\n// ── Reply extraction ─────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Recover the reply's JSON object.\n *\n * Distinct from `extractJsonPayload` in ../llm-client, which serves a response\n * that DECLARES a JSON root and therefore must not scan onward. A prime reply\n * is prose plus a fenced block, and when the model emits several fences the\n * last one is its answer — so fences are scanned in reverse, and only then is a\n * brace-to-brace slice tried.\n */\nexport function extractPrimeJsonObject(text: string): Record<string, unknown> | null {\n const direct = parsePrimeJsonObject(text)\n if (direct) return direct\n const fenced = [...text.matchAll(/```(?:json)?\\s*\\n?([\\s\\S]*?)```/g)]\n for (let index = fenced.length - 1; index >= 0; index -= 1) {\n const candidate = parsePrimeJsonObject(fenced[index]![1]!)\n if (candidate) return candidate\n }\n const start = text.indexOf('{')\n const end = text.lastIndexOf('}')\n if (start >= 0 && end > start) {\n const candidate = parsePrimeJsonObject(text.slice(start, end + 1))\n if (candidate) return candidate\n }\n return null\n}\n\n/** Why the reply cannot be read as a prime answer, or null when it can. */\nexport function primeReplyDefect(\n parsed: Record<string, unknown> | null,\n rowsField: string,\n): string | null {\n if (parsed === null) return 'no parseable JSON object'\n if (!Array.isArray(parsed[rowsField])) return `JSON has no \"${rowsField}\" array`\n return null\n}\n\nfunction parsePrimeJsonObject(text: string): Record<string, unknown> | null {\n try {\n const value: unknown = JSON.parse(text.trim())\n return typeof value === 'object' && value !== null && !Array.isArray(value)\n ? (value as Record<string, unknown>)\n : null\n } catch {\n return null\n }\n}\n\n// ── Usage ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Token accounting exactly as the bridge reported it. Lossless on purpose: a\n * side the bridge did not report stays null rather than becoming a zero, and a\n * side it DID report survives even when its partner is missing.\n */\nexport interface PrimeRawUsage {\n /**\n * Model-usage records the bridge observed. NOT a count of bridge round trips:\n * one prime turn routes several internal model calls, so a single turn\n * typically reports 3-5.\n */\n calls: number | null\n /** Prompt tokens the bridge reported; null when it reported none. */\n inputTokens: number | null\n /** Completion tokens the bridge reported; null when it reported none. */\n outputTokens: number | null\n /**\n * True when the bridge DERIVED the counts (from character lengths) because\n * the backend reported no usage of its own. Pricing derived counts produces a\n * guess about a guess, which a reader must be able to tell apart from a\n * rate-estimated cost over exact tokens.\n */\n bridgeEstimated: boolean\n}\n\nexport function emptyPrimeRawUsage(): PrimeRawUsage {\n return { calls: null, inputTokens: null, outputTokens: null, bridgeEstimated: false }\n}\n\n/** Read the bridge's OpenAI-shaped `usage` object. */\nexport function normalizePrimeUsage(raw: unknown): PrimeRawUsage {\n if (typeof raw !== 'object' || raw === null) return emptyPrimeRawUsage()\n const record = raw as Record<string, unknown>\n return {\n calls: tokenCountOrNull(record.model_requests),\n inputTokens: tokenCountOrNull(record.prompt_tokens),\n outputTokens: tokenCountOrNull(record.completion_tokens),\n bridgeEstimated: record.estimated === true,\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Sum two turns. Each side poisons independently: two turns that both report\n * input and neither report output yield a real input total beside a null\n * output, because discarding a measured count is as wrong as inventing one.\n */\nexport function mergePrimeRawUsage(a: PrimeRawUsage, b: PrimeRawUsage): PrimeRawUsage {\n return {\n calls: sumOrNull(a.calls, b.calls),\n inputTokens: sumOrNull(a.inputTokens, b.inputTokens),\n outputTokens: sumOrNull(a.outputTokens, b.outputTokens),\n bridgeEstimated: a.bridgeEstimated || b.bridgeEstimated,\n }\n}\n\nfunction sumOrNull(a: number | null, b: number | null): number | null {\n return a !== null && b !== null ? a + b : null\n}\n\nfunction tokenCountOrNull(value: unknown): number | null {\n return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isSafeInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : null\n}\n\n/**\n * Bind raw prime usage to agent-eval's typed receipt.\n *\n * `RunTokenUsage.input` and `.output` are non-nullable, so a one-sided count\n * cannot round-trip through `tokens` without writing a zero nobody measured.\n * The complete-accounting field therefore stays null, the reported side is\n * carried verbatim in `partialTokens`, and its price becomes the receipt's\n * `knownCostUsd` lower bound.\n *\n * Only agent-eval calls this; consumers with no pricing table read\n * `PrimeRawUsage` directly.\n */\nexport function analystUsageReceiptFromPrimeUsage(\n usage: PrimeRawUsage,\n pricing: CustomTokenPricing,\n): AnalystUsageReceipt {\n const { calls, inputTokens, outputTokens, bridgeEstimated } = usage\n const estimatedTokens = bridgeEstimated ? { tokensEstimated: true } : {}\n if (inputTokens !== null && outputTokens !== null) {\n return {\n calls,\n tokens: { input: inputTokens, output: outputTokens },\n cost: { kind: 'estimated', usd: priceTokens(inputTokens, outputTokens, pricing) },\n ...estimatedTokens,\n }\n }\n if (inputTokens === null && outputTokens === null) {\n return { calls, tokens: null, cost: { kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null }, ...estimatedTokens }\n }\n return {\n calls,\n tokens: null,\n partialTokens: { input: inputTokens, output: outputTokens },\n cost: { kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null },\n knownCostUsd: priceTokens(inputTokens ?? 0, outputTokens ?? 0, pricing),\n ...estimatedTokens,\n }\n}\n\nfunction priceTokens(input: number, output: number, pricing: CustomTokenPricing): number {\n return (input * pricing.inputUsdPerMillion + output * pricing.outputUsdPerMillion) / 1_000_000\n}\n\n// ── Two-turn exchange ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Why an exchange ended without a readable reply. `deadline` and `aborted` are\n * separate members from `transport` on purpose: a model that ran past its\n * deadline, a caller who cancelled, and a bridge that refused the connection\n * demand three different responses, and a record that conflates them cannot be\n * acted on.\n */\nexport type PrimeFailure =\n | {\n kind: 'transport' | 'unparseable-json' | 'no-content' | 'deadline' | 'malformed-reply'\n message: string\n }\n | { kind: 'http-status'; message: string; status: number; bodySnippet: string }\n | { kind: 'aborted'; message: string; cause: unknown }\n\nexport interface PrimeRepairState {\n attempted: boolean\n /** Null when no repair turn ran, or when the repair turn never returned a reply. */\n succeeded: boolean | null\n}\n\n/** One completed bridge turn. 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Prime analyses routinely exceed five minutes. */\n timeoutMs: number\n /** Whether a structurally malformed reply gets one bounded repair turn. */\n repair: boolean\n signal?: AbortSignal\n}\n\n/**\n * Run the protocol: one call, one bounded repair turn on a structurally\n * malformed reply, then decode. Zero valid rows from a well-formed reply is an\n * honest null, not a failure.\n */\nexport async function runPrimeExchange<TRow>(\n options: PrimeExchangeOptions<TRow>,\n): Promise<PrimeExchangeOutcome<TRow>> {\n const { contract } = options\n const turns: PrimeTurnRecord[] = []\n const repair: PrimeRepairState = { attempted: false, succeeded: null }\n\n const first = await callPrimeTurn(options, options.prompt)\n if (!first.ok) {\n return { ok: false, failure: first.failure, usage: mergeTurns(turns), turns, repair }\n }\n turns.push({ turn: 'first', usage: first.usage, rawUsage: first.rawUsage })\n\n let reply = first.content\n let parsed = extractPrimeJsonObject(reply)\n let defect = primeReplyDefect(parsed, contract.rowsField)\n\n if (defect !== null && options.repair) {\n repair.attempted = true\n const second = await callPrimeTurn(\n options,\n buildPrimeRepairPrompt({\n defect,\n previousReply: reply,\n repairContractLines: contract.repairContractLines,\n }),\n )\n if (!second.ok) {\n return { ok: false, failure: second.failure, usage: mergeTurns(turns), turns, repair, reply }\n }\n turns.push({ turn: 'repair', usage: second.usage, rawUsage: second.rawUsage })\n reply = second.content\n parsed = extractPrimeJsonObject(reply)\n defect = primeReplyDefect(parsed, contract.rowsField)\n repair.succeeded = defect === null\n }\n\n const usage = mergeTurns(turns)\n if (defect !== null) {\n return {\n ok: false,\n failure: {\n kind: 'malformed-reply',\n message: `${defect} in prime reply${repair.attempted ? 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The protocol needs only two moves —\n * fetch it all, or fetch a reduced version — so no store, artifact path, or\n * span type enters the shared signature.\n */\nexport interface PrimeProjectionSource<TItem> {\n /** The full projection, or null when the source declares itself oversized. */\n full(): Promise<readonly TItem[] | null>\n /** A reduced projection of the same material. */\n capped(): Promise<readonly TItem[]>\n /** How `capped` reduces, named for the failure message, e.g. `per-attribute cap 1200`. */\n cappedDescription: string\n}\n\nexport interface PrimeProjectionDelivery {\n mode: 'inline-json'\n fetch: 'full' | 'capped'\n renderedChars: number\n}\n\nexport type PrimeProjectionOutcome<TItem> =\n | {\n ok: true\n items: readonly TItem[]\n rendered: string\n delivery: PrimeProjectionDelivery\n }\n | { ok: false; reason: string; renderedChars: number }\n\n/**\n * Render, measure, fall back to the capped projection, re-measure, fail loud.\n *\n * Inline is the only delivery prime has, so an oversized trajectory is a\n * refusal rather than a silent truncation: dropping spans would understate the\n * trajectory and the analyst would answer a question about a different run.\n */\nexport async function projectPrimeTrajectory<TItem>(\n source: PrimeProjectionSource<TItem>,\n limits: { maxInlineChars: number },\n): Promise<PrimeProjectionOutcome<TItem>> {\n let fetch: PrimeProjectionDelivery['fetch'] = 'full'\n let items = await source.full()\n if (items === null) {\n fetch = 'capped'\n items = await source.capped()\n }\n let rendered = JSON.stringify(items)\n if (rendered.length > limits.maxInlineChars && fetch === 'full') {\n fetch = 'capped'\n items = await source.capped()\n rendered = JSON.stringify(items)\n }\n if (rendered.length > limits.maxInlineChars) {\n return {\n ok: false,\n reason: `trajectory renders to ${rendered.length} chars even at ${source.cappedDescription}; inline delivery impossible`,\n renderedChars: rendered.length,\n }\n }\n return {\n ok: true,\n items,\n rendered,\n delivery: { mode: 'inline-json', fetch, renderedChars: rendered.length },\n }\n}\n\n// ── Protocol identity ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface PrimeProtocolIdentity {\n question: string\n taskDefinition?: string\n contractLines: readonly string[]\n repairContractLines: readonly string[]\n /** Numeric limits the contract states, e.g. row and width caps. */\n limits: Readonly<Record<string, number>>\n}\n\n/**\n * Digest of everything a consumer can send to the bridge under the prime\n * protocol, recorded per observation so a prime result names the exact contract\n * that produced it.\n *\n * Computed over the ACTUALLY composed contract, so two consumers that both\n * stamp `analyst_id: 'prime'` while asking materially different questions get\n * different digests by construction. That is what makes 'prime' a reproducible\n * claim rather than a label.\n */\nexport function primeProtocolSha256(identity: PrimeProtocolIdentity): string {\n return createHash('sha256')\n .update(\n JSON.stringify({\n kind: 'prime-analyst-protocol',\n question: identity.question,\n taskPrompt: identity.taskDefinition ?? null,\n outputContract: identity.contractLines,\n repairContract: buildPrimeRepairPrompt({\n defect: '<defect>',\n previousReply: '<previous-reply>',\n repairContractLines: identity.repairContractLines,\n }),\n limits: identity.limits,\n }),\n )\n 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